Gold World News Flash |
- Will European Central Banks Begin Selling Gold Again?
- Matt Badiali: Smart Money Holds Gold & Buys Major Miners
- Is The Euro and The Rally In Gold Over?
- Danger in Numbers: The Decline of Paper Currency
- Got Gold Report - COT Flash May 21
- Inflation-Proof Deflation Hedge
- Dave Morgan on Gold (5/21)
- Gold Technicals: Keep your EYES on the Ball
- Matt Badiali: Smart Money Holds Gold & Buys Major Miners
- In The News Today
- China Housing Bubble Swells, U.S. Housing Busts (Again), Stocks Enter Correction and
- 10 Gold Charts Commercial Investment Firms Never Want Clients to See
- Russia's Central Bank Purchases Another 200,000 Ounces of Gold
- Why Gold Is a Sure Long-Term Bet
- Grandich Client Update – Croc on the Path to Commerical Production
- I Feel Even More Confident Then I Did a Year Ago
- LGMR: Gold a Strong Currency for Investors, Swiss FX Intervention Costs $870m Per Day
- So We Now Have "Financial Reform"?
- Trader Dan Comments On This Week's COT Data
- Think Stocks Correction Is Over? Roubini Sees 20% More Downside
- A billionaire goes all-in on gold
- Gold Seeker Weekly Wrap-Up: Gold and Silver Fall Over 4% and 8% on the Week
- Gene Arensberg's 'Got Gold Report' flash
- Gene Arensberg's 'Got Gold Report' flash
- Guaranteed: Its Going To Get Worse
- Jeff Nielson: 'Loose-Lips' does it again
- Jeff Nielson: 'Loose-Lips' does it again
- The Wall Street ICEcapade
- Global Stock Markets Priced in Gold: Brazil +, Bombay +, Everybody Else -
- Gold Technicals: Keep your EYES on the Ball
- Goldman's Tilton On European Clinical Contagion
- Gold Dinar A Trade Instrument
- Market Observation: Survey Says?
- 32 States Now Officially Bankrupt: $37.8 Billion Borrowed From Treasury To Fund Unemployment; CA, MI, NY Worst
- America Will Pass $13 Trillion In Total Debt Next Tuesday; $397 Billion In Debt Rolled Month To Date
- FRIDAY Market Excerpts
- Gold could be headed higher... much sooner than you think
- Six Trends Converging to Destroy the Planet
- Ron Paul: Your identity is being stolen
- A microcap stock even a value investor could love
- Now's The Time To Switch to Alternative Energy
- The Loonie's 'Gloom and Doom' Week
- Weekly Inflation Scorecard: Gold Wobbles
- CIBC initates coverage of 7 gold stocks
- Record EUR Shorts Decline Just Barely, As GBP Spec Shorts Hit All Time Record
- Re-pricing the World’s Credits
- Global Macro Update
| Will European Central Banks Begin Selling Gold Again? Posted: 23 May 2010 01:00 PM PDT Since the inception of the fourth Central Bank Gold Agreement last year on September 27th, sales by European central banks have been nearly non-existent. But that was before the € began to implode and fractures appeared in the Eurozone itself. Now governments have to fiercely cut back expenditures. They must do this to the extent that the reaction is certain to be social unrest.
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| Matt Badiali: Smart Money Holds Gold & Buys Major Miners Posted: 22 May 2010 07:05 PM PDT As he watches the price of gold march inexorably toward $2,000 (and beyond), and keeps an eye on developments in the Western world, S&A Resource Report Editor Matt Badiali tells Gold Report readers in this exclusive interview that it's time to make space in the safe for gold. That's gold to hold, preferably to pass on to one's heirs, but if need be to pay for one's meat and potatoes.
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| Is The Euro and The Rally In Gold Over? Posted: 22 May 2010 07:02 PM PDT Countries bailed out the banks. Now who is left to bail out the countries? While the decline in the euro appears to be very close to being over (as explained in the following part of the update), the fundamental situation of the Eurozone still appears to be one of the most popular topics these days, so the first part of this week's update will be dedicated to this particular part of the world.
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| Danger in Numbers: The Decline of Paper Currency Posted: 22 May 2010 07:00 PM PDT I waited until I had sobered up to re-read Agora Financial's 5-Minute Forecast, where it reported that "Bill Clinton shocked us the other day when he came out and suggested the financial crisis would never have happened if the dollar was still tethered to gold."
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| Got Gold Report - COT Flash May 21 Posted: 22 May 2010 06:00 PM PDT Bottom line: COT report shows COMEX commercials not aggressive on the sell side for gold, but the largest hedgers and short sellers hammer silver futures ahead of silver plunge. Gold -0.6% and the gold LCNS -1%. Silver -1.5% and the silver LCNS zooms higher 12.8%. Details just below.
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| Inflation-Proof Deflation Hedge Posted: 21 May 2010 06:30 PM PDT
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| Posted: 21 May 2010 06:29 PM PDT Dave Morgan of Silver-Investor.com discusses his short-term views on Gold and the other metals.
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| Gold Technicals: Keep your EYES on the Ball Posted: 21 May 2010 06:18 PM PDT Graceland Updates 4am-7am www.gracelandupdates.com Email: [EMAIL="s2p3t4@sympatico.ca"]s2p3t4@sympatico.ca[/EMAIL] [LIST] [*] May 21, 2010 [/LIST] [*]Gold hit $1166 last night. The “count” is now $84. That‘s a key number to focus on. The more that number grows while you take NO action on the buy side, the worse your situation becomes. It’s like being slowly transferred OFF the playing field and into the AUDIENCE. An $84 move is aprox 7%, and marks the move away from $1250, the highest point reached in the latest gold price upsurge. [*]Silver touched $17.50. The silver count away from the 19.85 high point is $2.35. Aprox 12%. The Silver Gridline has 19 key price points. Each dollar an ounce marker, from $1 an ounce to $19. One point was eliminated, when it traded under 19. Another when it traded under 18. [*]That leaves you only 17 gridline major buy points, to take action as a player. Are you...
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| Matt Badiali: Smart Money Holds Gold & Buys Major Miners Posted: 21 May 2010 06:18 PM PDT Source: Karen Roche of The Gold Report 05/21/2010 As he watches the price of gold march inexorably toward $2,000 (and beyond), and keeps an eye on developments in the Western world, S&A Resource Report Editor Matt Badiali tells Gold Report readers in this exclusive interview that it's time to make space in the safe for gold. That's gold to hold, preferably to pass on to one's heirs, but if need be to pay for one's meat and potatoes. As for investments in these troubled times, he's hot about investors adding shares of the booming senior gold mining stocks to their portfolios because "we're going to see them really soar." The Gold Report: A recent issue of Stansberry Digest addressed how the European bailout will influence the U.S. dollar—or, as some would put it, the U.S. dollar implosion. How do the paper currency issues afoot in Europe set up gold for a bull run? Matt Badiali: First of all, if you think of the Fed as a company, they can print as many shares ...
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| Posted: 21 May 2010 06:18 PM PDT View the original post at jsmineset.com... May 21, 2010 11:52 AM Quote Of The Day "Price is often the domain of panic. Time, however, is always the domain of profit." –CIGA Eric Jim Sinclair’s Commentary Government statistics are showing no inflation, yet if you take the kids see the new Shrek movie it will cost you $20 per person, popcorn not included. Every time gold has a reaction the Prechterites come popping out. This has been the case since $248 and once again confirms the intact long term bull market in the royal metal. It is the inflation/deflation argument that goes on when glib thinking is in control. God help us when they turn bullish. Thoughts For The Day 1. Financial salvation cannot be achieved by the faint of heart. 2. Since not looking at the prices has been a successful strategy in Gold (over $1000 profit since we started) why do you continue to torture yourself and your emotions by computer screen paralysis? 3. Those of you...
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| China Housing Bubble Swells, U.S. Housing Busts (Again), Stocks Enter Correction and Posted: 21 May 2010 06:18 PM PDT The 5 min. Forecast May 21, 2010 12:19 PM by Addison Wiggin & Ian Mathias May 21, 2010 [LIST] [*] Shades of 2008: Volatility exceeds “flash crash” levels [*] Why the rush out of stocks and commodities… Why now… And how to play it [*] Grim stats from the banking and housing sectors [*] Amid the gloom, spirit of enterprise prevails… huge scientific breakthrough [*] Readers correct us on “tar sands” [/LIST] Hmnn… yesterday, we thought snapping off a few bursts from a Chinese-made AK-47 was an interesting way to spend a Thursday afternoon. Today? Well, you don’t get to do this every Friday: Click here to watch the video. We rode horseback to the Great Wall this morning. At the top of the Wall, we hiked past a sign that forbade tourists from entering, and found ruins… the part of the Wall that hasn’t been gussied up recently for the likes of us. “Looks like the leftovers from t...
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| 10 Gold Charts Commercial Investment Firms Never Want Clients to See Posted: 21 May 2010 06:18 PM PDT Here are 10 gold charts that every global commercial investment firm is terrified to show their clients. When priced in ounces of gold, major western stock market indexes have performed horribly over the last 8 ½ years. Since, 2002, the US S&P 500 has lost a whopping 78% of its value. The Australia ASX All Ordinaries Composite (similar to the US S&P 500 index) and the UK FTSE indexes have not fared much better, respectively declining 70% and 77% in value. So despite all the hoopla about record runs in global stock market indexes in 2009, the great bubble machines operated by Central Banks have guaranteed that it may take another 20 or 30 additional years before investors break even in nearly every developed stock market index and even some emerging stock market indexes when the returns of these indexes are measured in gold. What about emerging markets? Goldman Sachs is fond of reminding us that they coined the term “BRIC” for the emerging markets o...
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| Russia's Central Bank Purchases Another 200,000 Ounces of Gold Posted: 21 May 2010 06:18 PM PDT As I mentioned in my commentary on Thursday, the bullion banks showed up on the sell side at 1:00 a.m. Eastern time during Hong Kong trading... which turned out to be the high of the day around $1,198 spot. Then, except for a mild recovery that peaked shortly after London opened yesterday, it was all down hill until 8:30 a.m. in New York. That was gold's low price of the day recorded at $1,174.20 spot. Then gold rose until the London p.m. gold fix at precisely 10:00 a.m. in New York... sold off until the London close... and then rose again to form a double top at precisely 11:00 a.m., before selling off gently into the close. Silver was guided down the same path as gold... with the low [$17.47 spot] at precisely 8:30 a.m. in New York. Silver's New York high [$17.97 spot] was at precisely 11:30 a.m. The high of the day was around $18.30 spot sometime during Far East trading. You will carefully note, dear reader, that every day in this engineered sell-off...
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| Why Gold Is a Sure Long-Term Bet Posted: 21 May 2010 06:18 PM PDT By Porter Stansberry Friday, May 21, 2010 What a spectacle… In an utter and complete repudiation of its founding principles, the European Union's central bank (ECB) has decided to copy the U.S. Federal Reserve's 2008-2009 strategy of "papering over" Europe's massive debt problems. The ECB will provide nearly unlimited credit to Europe's sovereign borrowers, while also buying troubled assets from Europe's largest banks. This latest development has caused a significant change in what I call "the most important chart in the world." Readers of my investment advisory are familiar with the chart by now… as we've been publishing it nearly every month… and even more frequently in the daily S&A Digest. It shows the value of U.S. government long bonds (represented by the fund "TLT"), the price of gold (represented by "GLD"), and the price of silver (represented by "SLV"). This is the battle for monetary supremacy… The market is arguing over a f...
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| Grandich Client Update – Croc on the Path to Commerical Production Posted: 21 May 2010 06:18 PM PDT The following is automatically syndicated from Grandich's blog. You can view the original post here May 21, 2010 06:50 AM Crocodile Gold issued some news earlier this week with the important news that they are declaring commercial production as of June 1. This is an important accomplishment considering the company just started mining in November of last year and started commissioning their mill in December 2009. With all the volatility in world economic markets, Croc is also receiving a one year high Australian dollar gold price of over $1,400! Croc had to revise its 2010 production guidance from 120,000 ounces to 100,000 oz due to some unexpected maintenance issues at the Union Reefs mill that affected throughput. Start-up issues are almost the norm in mining, and it has nothing to do with the integrity of Croc's deposits. And most importantly, Croc still plans to produce 200,000 ounces in 2011 – what they have been saying all along. They also said that commercial production is exp...
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| I Feel Even More Confident Then I Did a Year Ago Posted: 21 May 2010 06:18 PM PDT The following is automatically syndicated from Grandich's blog. You can view the original post here May 21, 2010 07:39 AM Listen to interview from May 23, 2009 Don’t listen to the always wrong gold perma-bears and just don’t stop believing we’re in the mother of all secular gold bull markets. And when Tokyo Rose and company spew their mistruths and flawed outlooks, just remember those of us who believe in it are always in an uphill battle but know where gold is going [url]http://www.grandich.com/[/url] grandich.com...
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| LGMR: Gold a Strong Currency for Investors, Swiss FX Intervention Costs $870m Per Day Posted: 21 May 2010 06:18 PM PDT London Gold Market Report from Adrian Ash BullionVault 09:15 ET, Fri 21 May Gold "a Strong Currency" for Private Investors as Swiss FX Intervention Costs $870m Per Day THE PRICE OF GOLD bounced from a new two-week low in London today, nearing the weekend 4.3% below last Friday's close as world stock markets slumped for the fourth time in seven sessions. Government bond buying continued to push prices higher, knocking the yield offered by US, German and UK debt to new multi-month lows. US crude oil contracts meantimee slipped back below $70 per barrel, more than 20% below May's 18-month peak. "Investors are looking for a strong reserve currency," writes Filippo Finocchi at bullion dealers Italpreziosi in Arezzo, Italy. "Purchasing protection in the form of gold appears well advised," says economist Charlie Fell, writing in The Irish Times. "The 'bailout age' could well give way to either malign inflation or destructive deflation. A return to price stabi...
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| So We Now Have "Financial Reform"? Posted: 21 May 2010 06:18 PM PDT Market Ticker - Karl Denninger View original article May 21, 2010 05:11 AM Who are these guys trying to kid? The most-important part of the bill, stopping derivative abuse, was watered down to the point of irrelevance. The exceptions and exemptions that remain for OTC trading are big enough to drive 200 West Street through - sideways - and Goldman will do exactly that. Nor did we re-impose a hard leverage cap. You know, the one that existed before 2004? Nor did we reinstate a hard deposit cap limitation. Nor did we fix The Fed illegally usurping the appropriation power of Congress or impose an actual audit on them. Nor did we fix the off-balance sheet or "mark to fantasy" BS - in short, the outright lies printed in so-called "financial reports" every quarter. President Obama came to the podium yesterday afternoon to "applaud" the passage of the rookery bill in the Senate, looking like he had a laser designator on his forehead - or a load that was...
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| Trader Dan Comments On This Week's COT Data Posted: 21 May 2010 05:50 PM PDT Dear Friends, For the past two weeks I have been observing a divergence from what has been a fairly reliable pattern involving the Swap Dealers and the big Commercials (Producer/User/Merchant/Processor) category. I remarked about this last week in my comments and mentioned that we would be watching to see if this divergence looks like it might be more than perhaps a one or two hit wonder. This week's report now shows the 3rd consecutive week in which the Swap Dealers have gone the opposite direction of the other big commercials. What makes this so noteworthy is that by simply looking over the chart, you can see that for the most part these two giants have been pretty much marching in lock step with each other. As the net short commercial position increases, the swap dealer net short position generally increases as well. When it decreases, so too does the Swap Dealer's. What appears to be happening is that the Swap dealers are slowly moving out of their net short position using the selling of the Commercial class to provide them with someone to buy from. AS a matter of fact, the swap dealers have been marching in lock step with the Managed money category for the last three weeks. I do not want to make any sort of dogmatic prediction from just a few week's worth of data, but this divergence bears watching to see if it really does become something more forcible and predictable. If so, it would indicate that the Swap Dealers are attempting to extricate themselves from their rather sizeable short position. They obviously have a long way to go to become net longs but wouldn't it be interesting if after all these years of working the short side of the metal, they have had a conversion experience and want to at the very least get out of the short side. Next week's report is going to be very revealing because of the sizeable correction in price we have had. If what I suspect is happening, look for the Swap Dealers to have dramatically reduced their short position into the liquidation selling of the general public and the managed money crowd. This time they will be back to going the same direction as the other big Commercial category who no doubt are using the selling of the general public and the Managed Money due to liquidation to cover some profitable shorts. Keep this development in mind when you are tempted to throw the metal or the shares away on these price reactions. It could be that the very last chance for these near perma-shorts (Swap Dealers) to cover and get out is now occurring and they are attempting to make the best of it. I also noted a rather large increase in the spread positions of the swap Dealers. They might very well be taking on some long positions to offset some of their shorts as a way to try to minimize some of their short side exposure. Things are getting interesting. Trader Dan Click chart to enlarge in PDF format
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| Think Stocks Correction Is Over? Roubini Sees 20% More Downside Posted: 21 May 2010 04:06 PM PDT
By Dian L. Chu, Economic Forecasts & Opinions
He noted investors can use options to hedge against future market downside risk that is certain to come.
Roubini also named Japan with its anemic growth and the U.S. when inventory adjustment goes away and fiscal stimulus becomes a drag in the 2nd half of this year, as possible candidates for a double-dip recession.
My Thoughts
And/or
A stampede out of the euro has pushed net short positions to a record high, but the euro rose broadly on Friday partly on speculation of a coordinated central banks currency intervention. This is causing a short squeeze and the unwinding of other assets.  Meanwhile, the breach of the S&P 500 June futures contract below its 200-day average for the first time since July 2009 coupled with 500+ stocks at their lowest price in a year on Thursday could perpetuate a negative market sentiment and spill into the real economy.
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| A billionaire goes all-in on gold Posted: 21 May 2010 04:05 PM PDT By Liam Pleven and Carolyn Cui http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000142405274870416770457525878370287577... Gold is setting records again, boosting the holdings of central banks, Armageddon worrywarts, and ordinary people who own gold bars, coins, and jewelry. But few individuals stand to benefit as much as low-profile billionaire Thomas Kaplan. A New York-born commodities magnate who earned a doctorate in British colonial history at Oxford, Mr. Kaplan oversees an empire devoted largely to gold. Many fund managers and high-rollers have allocated small percentages of their portfolios to gold as a hedge against inflation. But Mr. Kaplan is the bull of bullion. He has gone further than perhaps any other major investor, betting the majority of his wealth on gold and other precious metals. And it reflects his deeply held conviction that global economic instability could bring rising demand for gold. ... Dispatch continues below ... ADVERTISEMENT Prophecy to Become Coal Producer This Year Prophecy Resource Corp. (TSX.V: PCY) announced on May 11 that it has entered into a mine services agreement with Leighton Asia Ltd. to begin coal production this year. Production will begin with a 250,000-tonne starter pit as planned in August, with production advancing to 2 million tonnes per year in 2011. Prophecy is fully funded to production and its management team includes John Morganti, Arnold Armstrong, and Rob McEwen. For Prophecy's complete press release about its production plans, please visit: http://www.prophecyresource.com/news_2010_may11.php Through his firm, Tigris Financial Group, and affiliates, Mr. Kaplan has loaded up on bullion and bought up properties in 17 countries on five continents, where geologists are exploring for more. Tigris subsidiaries have taken stakes in mining companies, including tiny firms that have yet to produce an ounce. Though he won't disclose how much physical gold he owns, Mr. Kaplan, who is 47 years old, controls up to 30% of the shares in some so-called junior miners. Together, his holdings amount to a nearly $2 billion bet on gold, more than the Brazilian central bank's bullion is currently worth. "I've reached a point where I feel the only asset I have confidence in is gold," Mr. Kaplan said in an interview at Tigris's midtown Manhattan headquarters. Mr. Kaplan's views are shaped by a concern, shared by many investors, that heavy government spending hasn't contained the woes facing the financial system. Gold hit an exchange record of $1,242.70 a troy ounce at the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange on May 12, days after euro-zone leaders announced a nearly $1 trillion bailout for ailing member states. He has experience with how supply and demand can drive the price of raw materials. His doctoral thesis studied Britain's involvement after World War II in Malaya, home to prized rubber and tin. That taught him how far people and governments will go to secure natural resources. Wanting to apply his insights, he went to Israel to advise hedge funds. His nose for finding valuable resources was developed at firms he started that explored for silver and natural gas, which helped him make his fortune. Gold miners are struggling to make major discoveries and it takes years to bring new finds into production. If people want to stock up on gold in a hurry, it will be hard to ramp up production enough to satisfy them, Mr. Kaplan believes. "You've got a perfect storm with no apparent solution," he said. "If the world does well, gold will be fine. If the world doesn't do well, gold will also do fine ... but a lot of other things could collapse." Mr. Kaplan is known in the mining industry for his all-in approach. "When he likes something, he dives in with both feet," Egizio Bianchini, a banker at BMO Capital Markets in Toronto, said of Mr. Kaplan, whom he has worked with in the past. In his charitable endeavors, Mr. Kaplan works similarly. In 2006 he co-founded Panthera Corp., whose "single-minded pursuit" is preserving the world's endangered wild cats, he wrote in an open letter on the group's site in which he cited inspirational quotes by Winston Churchill, Edward R. Murrow, and Marcus Aurelius. Mr. Kaplan is also president of the board of directors at New York's 92nd Street Y, a prominent cultural organization that is a magnet for New York's elite. And he is a benefactor of Eternal Jewish Family, a group dedicated to uniform rules governing conversions to Judaism whose leader resigned last year amid an alleged sex scandal. In some cases, Mr. Kaplan has invested in gold miners that have also attracted the attention of fellow billionaires, such as George Soros and John Paulson. Mr. Kaplan put money into one firm, Gabriel Resources Ltd., in late 2007 after Mr. Paulson, who made billions of dollars betting against housing markets, mentioned how low the stock had fallen while they attended "The Nutcracker" at the New York City Ballet. "I'm there," Mr. Kaplan recalls was his response. In early March, Mr. Paulson's firm, Paulson & Co., and Quantum Partners, Ltd., an investment fund run by Soros Fund Management, invested $100 million and $75 million, respectively, in NovaGold Resources Inc., a Canadian miner, paying $5.50 a share. Their move came a year after Mr. Kaplan, who has $69 million invested in the company, acquired 30% of the firm for $1.30 a share. Gold prices are up 7.4% this year, after rising 24% last year, which was the ninth straight up year for bullion. Mr. Kaplan thinks that greater gains are coming. "I wouldn't even say we're in a bull market yet," he said. But Mr. Kaplan has concentrated risk in a volatile sector, and he knows the potential pitfalls better than most. In 2008, for instance, a company that Mr. Kaplan founded, Apex Silver Mines Ltd., went bankrupt, felled by the terms of a loan made after Mr. Kaplan left the company in 2004. The company emerged from bankruptcy last year and now operates as Golden Minerals Co. In January 2009, Mr. Kaplan received a so-called Wells notice from the Securities and Exchange Commission related to what the company said were "impermissible payments" of $125,000 to government officials by executives at a South American subsidiary. The SEC delivers Wells notices to inform recipients that it may bring an enforcement action, providing an opportunity for the recipient to persuade the agency not to pursue charges. No charges have been filed against Mr. Kaplan. An SEC spokesman declined to comment. Mr. Kaplan's current investments also carry risk. Gabriel Resources owns Europe's biggest undeveloped gold deposit, in Romania, but has been waiting for government approval for years. He has $100 million at stake in the company. Mr. Kaplan acknowledges the dangers involved in investing in small mining companies. "It's not the kind of thing I would suggest for widows and orphans," he said. And, he added, he isn't in a rush to cash in on his gold investments. "If I am right about the big picture," he said, "I will be rewarded for my patience." Join GATA here: World Resource Investment Conference * * * Support GATA by purchasing a colorful GATA T-shirt: Or a colorful poster of GATA's full-page ad in The Wall Street Journal on January 31, 2009: http://gata.org/node/wallstreetjournal Or a video disc of GATA's 2005 Gold Rush 21 conference in the Yukon: * * * Help keep GATA going GATA is a civil rights and educational organization based in the United States and tax-exempt under the U.S. Internal Revenue Code. Its e-mail dispatches are free, and you can subscribe at: To contribute to GATA, please visit: ADVERTISEMENT Coming Friday-Sunday, June 11-13, at the Dallas-Fort Worth Airport Marriot: The conference will explore the dangers and opportunities in today's bullion markets and the need for investors to diversify bullion holdings outside of bullion banking and commodities markets. Speakers will include David Morgan of Silver-Investor.com, Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Chairman Bill Murphy, and Duncan Cameron and Philip Judge of Anglo Far-East Bullion Co. The earliest conference attendees on Saturday will be able to schedule one-on-one interviews for personal consultation with Anglo-Far East's experts on Sunday. To learn more about and register for the Anglo Far-East Bullion conference, please visit: http://www.anglofareast.com/seminar-registration/
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| Gold Seeker Weekly Wrap-Up: Gold and Silver Fall Over 4% and 8% on the Week Posted: 21 May 2010 04:00 PM PDT Gold fell almost 2% to $1166.53 in early Asian trade before it climbed back to see a loss of just $3.18 at $1184.82 in London and then dropped to $1170.50 in midmorning New York trade ahead of a rally back to $1187.30 by about noon EST to see a loss of just 70 cents, but it then fell back off in afternoon trade and ended with a loss of 1.03%. Silver climbed to $17.80 and fell to $17.40 in midmorning New York trade before it rallied to a noontime high of $17.868, but it also fell back off into the close and ended with a loss of 0.56%.
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| Gene Arensberg's 'Got Gold Report' flash Posted: 21 May 2010 03:40 PM PDT 11:40p ET Friday, May 21, 2010 Dear Friend of GATA and Gold (and Silver): Gene Arensberg's "Got Gold Report" tonight expresses some puzzlement that heavy shorting by large commercial traders didn't show up more in the gold traders report just before this week's smashdown in the precious metals. Arensberg writes: "For gold we cannot point to the commercials being aggressive in their hedging and short selling just ahead of this week's knock-down in the markets. Indeed, they actually reduced their collective net short positioning a little just ahead of the harsh move lower. But in silver we certainly can point to just that. The commercials piled on the short side in a big way just as the sell-down was getting under way." Arensberg's report is headlined "COT Flash May 21" and you can find it here: http://treo.typepad.com/20100521COTflashPDF.pdf CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer ADVERTISEMENT Prophecy to Become Coal Producer This Year Prophecy Resource Corp. (TSX.V: PCY) announced on May 11 that it has entered into a mine services agreement with Leighton Asia Ltd. to begin coal production this year. Production will begin with a 250,000-tonne starter pit as planned in August, with production advancing to 2 million tonnes per year in 2011. Prophecy is fully funded to production and its management team includes John Morganti, Arnold Armstrong, and Rob McEwen. For Prophecy's complete press release about its production plans, please visit: http://www.prophecyresource.com/news_2010_may11.php Join GATA here: World Resource Investment Conference * * * Support GATA by purchasing a colorful GATA T-shirt: Or a colorful poster of GATA's full-page ad in The Wall Street Journal on January 31, 2009: http://gata.org/node/wallstreetjournal Or a video disc of GATA's 2005 Gold Rush 21 conference in the Yukon: * * * Help keep GATA going GATA is a civil rights and educational organization based in the United States and tax-exempt under the U.S. Internal Revenue Code. Its e-mail dispatches are free, and you can subscribe at: To contribute to GATA, please visit: ADVERTISEMENT Coming Friday-Sunday, June 11-13, at the Dallas-Fort Worth Airport Marriot: The conference will explore the dangers and opportunities in today's bullion markets and the need for investors to diversify bullion holdings outside of bullion banking and commodities markets. Speakers will include David Morgan of Silver-Investor.com, Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Chairman Bill Murphy, and Duncan Cameron and Philip Judge of Anglo Far-East Bullion Co. The earliest conference attendees on Saturday will be able to schedule one-on-one interviews for personal consultation with Anglo-Far East's experts on Sunday. To learn more about and register for the Anglo Far-East Bullion conference, please visit: http://www.anglofareast.com/seminar-registration/
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| Gene Arensberg's 'Got Gold Report' flash Posted: 21 May 2010 03:40 PM PDT 11:40p ET Friday, May 21, 2010 Dear Friend of GATA and Gold (and Silver): Gene Arensberg's "Got Gold Report" tonight expresses some puzzlement that heavy shorting by large commercial traders didn't show up more in the gold traders report just before this week's smashdown in the precious metals. Arensberg writes: "For gold we cannot point to the commercials being aggressive in their hedging and short selling just ahead of this week's knock-down in the markets. Indeed, they actually reduced their collective net short positioning a little just ahead of the harsh move lower. But in silver we certainly can point to just that. The commercials piled on the short side in a big way just as the sell-down was getting under way." Arensberg's report is headlined "COT Flash May 21" and you can find it here: http://treo.typepad.com/20100521COTflashPDF.pdf CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer ADVERTISEMENT Prophecy to Become Coal Producer This Year Prophecy Resource Corp. (TSX.V: PCY) announced on May 11 that it has entered into a mine services agreement with Leighton Asia Ltd. to begin coal production this year. Production will begin with a 250,000-tonne starter pit as planned in August, with production advancing to 2 million tonnes per year in 2011. Prophecy is fully funded to production and its management team includes John Morganti, Arnold Armstrong, and Rob McEwen. For Prophecy's complete press release about its production plans, please visit: http://www.prophecyresource.com/news_2010_may11.php Join GATA here: World Resource Investment Conference * * * Support GATA by purchasing a colorful GATA T-shirt: Or a colorful poster of GATA's full-page ad in The Wall Street Journal on January 31, 2009: http://gata.org/node/wallstreetjournal Or a video disc of GATA's 2005 Gold Rush 21 conference in the Yukon: * * * Help keep GATA going GATA is a civil rights and educational organization based in the United States and tax-exempt under the U.S. Internal Revenue Code. Its e-mail dispatches are free, and you can subscribe at: To contribute to GATA, please visit: ADVERTISEMENT Coming Friday-Sunday, June 11-13, at the Dallas-Fort Worth Airport Marriot: The conference will explore the dangers and opportunities in today's bullion markets and the need for investors to diversify bullion holdings outside of bullion banking and commodities markets. Speakers will include David Morgan of Silver-Investor.com, Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Chairman Bill Murphy, and Duncan Cameron and Philip Judge of Anglo Far-East Bullion Co. The earliest conference attendees on Saturday will be able to schedule one-on-one interviews for personal consultation with Anglo-Far East's experts on Sunday. To learn more about and register for the Anglo Far-East Bullion conference, please visit: http://www.anglofareast.com/seminar-registration/
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| Guaranteed: Its Going To Get Worse Posted: 21 May 2010 03:03 PM PDT A "double-dip recession" makes no sense to the 76 percent of Americans who believe that the US economy remains in recession. To the 24% of the populace who believes the U.S. exited recession in fine fettle, I offer a "Two Scoop Special": a Double-Dip recession is guaranteed for the following reasons: 1. The Eurozone is heading into deep recession, taking U.S. corporate profits with it. .. 2. China's unprecedented bubble in credit and real estate will implode, taking down China's economy. .. 3. Once China goes down, so do the housing bubbles in Canada and Australia, and the Asian economies which depend on sales to China for their own growth.,, 4. Local government in the U.S. will have to shed tens of thousands of jobs. ,, 5. Bank reform will force layoffs and consolidation in the financial sector... 6. Housing's bogus government-induced "rally" will implode. 7. The massive Federal bailouts accomplished nothing but propping up a rotten status quo for a year... 8. The vaunted "recession-proof" sickcare industry will start shedding jobs as Medicare and other funding sources implode More Here.. 
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| Jeff Nielson: 'Loose-Lips' does it again Posted: 21 May 2010 02:46 PM PDT 10:45p ET Friday, May 21, 2010 Dear Friend of GATA and Gold: Jeff Nielson of Bullion Bulls Canada tonight completes his three-part analysis of the recent debate between GATA Chairman Bill Murphy and CPM Group executive Jeffrey M. Christian. Nielson stresses Christian's rationalizing manipulation of the gold market by central banks as well as Christian's self-contradictions. Nielson's commentary is headlined "The Great Debate, Part 3: Loose-Lips Does It Again" and you can find it at Bullion Bulls Canada here: http://www.bullionbullscanada.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=arti... Or try this abbreviated link: CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer ADVERTISEMENT Prophecy to Become Coal Producer This Year Prophecy Resource Corp. (TSX.V: PCY) announced on May 11 that it has entered into a mine services agreement with Leighton Asia Ltd. to begin coal production this year. Production will begin with a 250,000-tonne starter pit as planned in August, with production advancing to 2 million tonnes per year in 2011. Prophecy is fully funded to production and its management team includes John Morganti, Arnold Armstrong, and Rob McEwen. For Prophecy's complete press release about its production plans, please visit: http://www.prophecyresource.com/news_2010_may11.php Join GATA here: World Resource Investment Conference * * * Support GATA by purchasing a colorful GATA T-shirt: Or a colorful poster of GATA's full-page ad in The Wall Street Journal on January 31, 2009: http://gata.org/node/wallstreetjournal Or a video disc of GATA's 2005 Gold Rush 21 conference in the Yukon: * * * Help keep GATA going GATA is a civil rights and educational organization based in the United States and tax-exempt under the U.S. Internal Revenue Code. Its e-mail dispatches are free, and you can subscribe at: To contribute to GATA, please visit: ADVERTISEMENT Coming Friday-Sunday, June 11-13, at the Dallas-Fort Worth Airport Marriot: The conference will explore the dangers and opportunities in today's bullion markets and the need for investors to diversify bullion holdings outside of bullion banking and commodities markets. Speakers will include David Morgan of Silver-Investor.com, Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Chairman Bill Murphy, and Duncan Cameron and Philip Judge of Anglo Far-East Bullion Co. The earliest conference attendees on Saturday will be able to schedule one-on-one interviews for personal consultation with Anglo-Far East's experts on Sunday. To learn more about and register for the Anglo Far-East Bullion conference, please visit: http://www.anglofareast.com/seminar-registration/
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| Jeff Nielson: 'Loose-Lips' does it again Posted: 21 May 2010 02:46 PM PDT 10:45p ET Friday, May 21, 2010 Dear Friend of GATA and Gold: Jeff Nielson of Bullion Bulls Canada tonight completes his three-part analysis of the recent debate between GATA Chairman Bill Murphy and CPM Group executive Jeffrey M. Christian. Nielson stresses Christian's rationalizing manipulation of the gold market by central banks as well as Christian's self-contradictions. Nielson's commentary is headlined "The Great Debate, Part 3: Loose-Lips Does It Again" and you can find it at Bullion Bulls Canada here: http://www.bullionbullscanada.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=arti... Or try this abbreviated link: CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer ADVERTISEMENT Prophecy to Become Coal Producer This Year Prophecy Resource Corp. (TSX.V: PCY) announced on May 11 that it has entered into a mine services agreement with Leighton Asia Ltd. to begin coal production this year. Production will begin with a 250,000-tonne starter pit as planned in August, with production advancing to 2 million tonnes per year in 2011. Prophecy is fully funded to production and its management team includes John Morganti, Arnold Armstrong, and Rob McEwen. For Prophecy's complete press release about its production plans, please visit: http://www.prophecyresource.com/news_2010_may11.php Join GATA here: World Resource Investment Conference * * * Support GATA by purchasing a colorful GATA T-shirt: Or a colorful poster of GATA's full-page ad in The Wall Street Journal on January 31, 2009: http://gata.org/node/wallstreetjournal Or a video disc of GATA's 2005 Gold Rush 21 conference in the Yukon: * * * Help keep GATA going GATA is a civil rights and educational organization based in the United States and tax-exempt under the U.S. Internal Revenue Code. Its e-mail dispatches are free, and you can subscribe at: To contribute to GATA, please visit: ADVERTISEMENT Coming Friday-Sunday, June 11-13, at the Dallas-Fort Worth Airport Marriot: The conference will explore the dangers and opportunities in today's bullion markets and the need for investors to diversify bullion holdings outside of bullion banking and commodities markets. Speakers will include David Morgan of Silver-Investor.com, Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Chairman Bill Murphy, and Duncan Cameron and Philip Judge of Anglo Far-East Bullion Co. The earliest conference attendees on Saturday will be able to schedule one-on-one interviews for personal consultation with Anglo-Far East's experts on Sunday. To learn more about and register for the Anglo Far-East Bullion conference, please visit: http://www.anglofareast.com/seminar-registration/
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| Posted: 21 May 2010 01:16 PM PDT By Lucy Komisar As I write this, the U.S. Senate is debating a major financial reform bill in which the credit default swap, a kind of derivative, plays a significant part. An amendment to that bill, proposed by Senators Carl Levin (D-MI) and Jeff Merkley (D-OR), would ban banks from proprietary trading. There are a lot [...]
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| Global Stock Markets Priced in Gold: Brazil +, Bombay +, Everybody Else - Posted: 21 May 2010 01:12 PM PDT View Larger Chart View Larger Chart View Larger Chart Continue reading 10 Gold Charts Commercial Investment Firms Never Want Clients to See
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| Gold Technicals: Keep your EYES on the Ball Posted: 21 May 2010 01:12 PM PDT Graceland Updates 4am-7am www.gracelandupdates.com Email: [EMAIL="s2p3t4@sympatico.ca"]s2p3t4@sympatico.ca[/EMAIL] [LIST] [*] May 21, 2010 [/LIST] [*]Gold hit $1166 last night. The “count” is now $84. That‘s a key number to focus on. The more that number grows while you take NO action on the buy side, the worse your situation becomes. It’s like being slowly transferred OFF the playing field and into the AUDIENCE. An $84 move is aprox 7%, and marks the move away from $1250, the highest point reached in the latest gold price upsurge. [*]Silver touched $17.50. The silver count away from the 19.85 high point is $2.35. Aprox 12%. The Silver Gridline has 19 key price points. Each dollar an ounce marker, from $1 an ounce to $19. One point was eliminated, when it traded under 19. Another when it traded under 18. [*]That leaves you only 17 gridline major buy points, to take action as a player. Are you...
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| Goldman's Tilton On European Clinical Contagion Posted: 21 May 2010 12:50 PM PDT
A few days ago Tim Geithner said that any risk from Europe is isolated on the continent and there is no risk of it spreading to the US. Following a near 10% drop in the S&P we yet again have confirmation that the Treasury Secretary is a pathological liar or an idiot, or just so confused by analyzing the ever-increasing gobs of negatve data that his brain has officially switched off, we are not sure which, although either case would make him ineligible to practice the role of US Treasurer (unless to the list of permitted exemptions which currently only lists tax "avoidance", one adds lunacy). And while we await a clinical diagnosis on the SecTres' pathologies, we offer this analysis on how European contagion will come to the US from Goldman's Andrew Tilton, which, for what it's worth, is one of the better ones written on the topic.
Some participants expressed concern that a crisis in Greece or in some other peripheral European countries could have an adverse effect on U.S. financial markets, which could also slow the recovery in this country. -Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee meeting, April 27-28, 2010 Despite its origins in the domestic residential housing sector, the US credit crunch and recession ultimately caused severe damage to economies throughout the world, via trade and especially financial linkages. With increasing focus on the sustainability of sovereign debt in the Eurozone periphery, it is natural to wonder if “what goes around comes around.” The tremors in Europe have already been all too evident in US markets, but will they have a major impact on growth in the United States? In this comment we review the potential channels for contagion from the Eurozone periphery to the US economy and assess the potential impact of each. This is not an assessment of the Eurozone periphery’s debt problems—for that, please see recent publications by our European economics team—but rather a “what-if” exercise assessing the effects of European stress on the United States. Channels of Contagion The heightened concern about the sustainability of sovereign debt in the Eurozone periphery has had a number of effects. It was evident most directly in a sharp rise in sovereign risk premia and borrowing costs. This threatened more aggressive fiscal tightening and potentially slower growth, hurting asset prices and sending the euro lower. Poorer growth prospects and worries about sovereign defaults have sparked concerns about European bank solvency, in turn raising questions about credit availability. Fiscal support from core European sovereigns and credit easing from the ECB have been rolled out in an attempt to contain the problems and calm markets. 1. Weaker US export performance. The corollary of a weaker euro has been a stronger US dollar. That, along with the downside risk to European domestic demand if the crisis intensifies, points to weaker US export growth. 2. Lower equity prices. A weaker euro and heightened uncertainty about the European and US growth outlook have pulled equities down more than 10%. This discourages consumer and investment spending, at least on the margin. 3. Tighter credit conditions. As Fed Governor Daniel Tarullo noted in Congressional testimony yesterday, “One avenue through which financial turmoil in Europe might affect the US economy is by weakening the asset quality and capital positions of US financial institutions.” Concern about losses on debt of peripheral sovereigns has naturally raised concerns about the solvency of financial institutions that hold that debt. This has been reflected in slightly wider credit spreads and some stirrings of bank funding stress (though these remain small relative to levels seen in 2007-2009; see Exhibit 1). In theory, a full-blown European credit crunch could affect the US both directly (if funding problems extended to banks operating in the United States) and indirectly (if a credit crunch in Europe substantially weakened European growth). 4. Offsets from lower commodity prices and lower risk-free interest rates. Not all of the effects have been negative. A stronger dollar and the possibility of weaker European growth have already lowered commodity prices, most importantly oil: crude prices have fallen to about $70/barrel as of this writing, from an average of $80/barrel in the first four months of the year. Also, although short-term rates have hit the zero bound, long-term risk-free interest rates have fallen substantially. To provide a point of reference for the potential impact of Eurozone financial and economic stress, we consider two scenarios. The first “moderate stress” scenario is intended to reflect what we have seen thus far. It assumes a 10% decline in US equities, a $10/barrel decline in oil prices, and a 10% strengthening in the euro relative to the US dollar. We also assume a hit to Eurozone domestic demand of 0.5%; note this need not necessarily mean a meaningfully lower GDP growth outlook, since Eurozone exports would presumably benefit from the weaker currency. A “severe stress” scenario assumes price movements 2.5 times as large and a broader Eurozone credit crunch with a consequent 2% shock to Eurozone domestic demand. For each scenario, we calculate the effects via the four “channels of contagion” listed above. As a cross-check, we do this in two ways: via an individual assessment of that channel’s effects on growth, and also via a vector autoregression (VAR) framework that evaluates all the effects simultaneously. In general, these approaches yield similar results, with our preferred specification shown in Exhibit 2. There are also indirect effects on US exports. Other US trading partners might grow more slowly because of the crisis, or US firms might lose share to cheaper euro-area exports. We can incorporate these effects by looking at the historical effect of dollar appreciation and foreign growth on overall US exports. A 1% appreciation in the trade-weighted dollar tends to push down US exports by about 0.6%, other things equal; this implies indirect effects comparable in magnitude to the direct effects. Still, the overall trade effect is likely to be quite small in the “moderate” scenario, about 0.1% of US GDP. In the “severe” scenario it would be three times as large. 2. More significant negative effects from the equity market selloff. The clearest impact comes via the equity market. With approximately $12 trillion of equity-related holdings, households suffer a wealth loss of $1.2 trillion in the “moderate” scenario. Assuming a fairly typical “wealth effect” of about 3%, the impact on consumer spending would be $36 billion in the moderate case and $90bn in the severe case; these represent 0.3% and 0.7% of GDP respectively. The overall effect is likely to be larger than this, since a decline in equity prices should crimp investment spending on the margin as well. The figures shown in Exhibit 2 reflect the results from our VAR analysis. 3. Credit availability a risk in a severe scenario. A defining feature of a more severe crisis would be a credit crunch in Europe that spills over into a pullback in US credit availability as well. Given the all-too-recent experience with international credit contagion, and the historical co-movement between US and European financial conditions (Exhibit 3), this is clearly something to watch for. At this point, we have seen only a modest increase in the cost of credit (about 20 basis points on investment-grade credit spreads). As discussed below, risk-free yields have moved significantly lower, pushing private-sector borrowing rates down on net. In the “severe” scenario, we assume this situation is reversed: wider spreads more than offset lower risk-free rates, resulting in a net drag on growth. This was what we observed in the acute stages of the 2008-2009 crisis. growth, though obviously with great uncertainty around this result. 4. Lower oil prices are the most important offset. As the market reduces its assessment of world growth and the dollar appreciates, imported commodities cheapen, freeing up household income. The effects here can be significant: a $10/barrel decline in oil prices reduces household spending on energy by about $20 billion per year; if 70% of this were redirected to spending on other goods and services, the resulting $14 billion increase in real spending would boost real GDP by 0.1%, assuming that import leakage and “multiplier” effects on other spending roughly offset each other. VAR results suggest a somewhat bigger impact. Under normal economic circumstances the Fed might provide additional support, but with rates at the “zero bound” and already expected to remain so for an “extended period,” options are limited. The bar for additional asset purchases looks fairly high, although this cannot be ruled out if growth slows sharply. However, longer-term risk-free interest rates have fallen by more than 50 basis points from levels prevailing earlier in 2010, in anticipation of slower growth and potentially an even longer period with the Fed on hold. Monitoring the Patient’s Health Market participants and policymakers can monitor these “channels of contagion” via a plethora of indicators. For trade, the US dollar exchange rate (either versus the euro or better yet, on a trade-weighted basis) should provide a good indication of the degree of headwind. Monthly data on exports to the Eurozone provide a more direct gauge, but are somewhat noisy, not adjusted for seasonality, and released with a substantial lag. We reviewed other leading indicators of exports in the May 17 US Daily. Our longstanding Goldman Sachs Financial Conditions Index captures many of these factors in one metric. Even more broadly, our global economics group has created a version of the FCI that folds in the estimated offset from oil prices on growth (Exhibit 5). The “oil-adjusted FCI” has tightened only slightly versus its April average, consistent with the small negative impact on overall growth that we show in the “moderate scenario” in Exhibit 2. The FCI includes corporate credit spreads but not a broader measure of lending standards, so these need to be monitored separately. In conclusion, our exercise to map the channels of potential contagion from Eurozone to the United States finds that: 1. Most contagion is likely to occur via financial channels. The impact on GDP growth via exports is likely to be overshadowed by wealth and credit effects on spending. This finding is consistent with other recent research on international spillovers. 3. …but a renewed squeeze in credit would point to a “severe” scenario. As discussed above—and experienced in dramatic terms in 2008—a credit shock can have a large and rapid effect on growth. Signs that one is emerging in Europe would point towards a US outcome that looks more like the “severe” case. 4. Watch the “oil adjusted” FCI and measures of credit availability such as our “credit restraint index.” Although there are many important indicators to keep track of, these two encompass the main channels of potential transmission from European distress to the US real economy and so provide a concise status check on contagion effects. Andrew Tilton
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| Posted: 21 May 2010 12:32 PM PDT By Amer Hamzah Md Sap Members of the World Islamic Economic Forum (WIEF) have been asked to support former Malaysian Prime Minister Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad's call to consider gold dinar as a trade instrument among member countries of the Organisation of Islamic Conference (OIC). In making the call, Cydinar Sdn Bhd chief executive officer Mohd Zahari [...]
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| Market Observation: Survey Says? Posted: 21 May 2010 12:00 PM PDT by Brian Pretti. "I will not belabor the point here. Over the recent past we have seen some very strong manufacturing surveys. Of course the headline ISM survey has been strong for some time now, but a number of the smaller regional surveys are catching up, and fast. Most regional manufacturing surveys now rest at multi-year highs. Moreover, the Richmond Fed manufacturing survey just hit an all time new high in the recent month."
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| Posted: 21 May 2010 11:46 AM PDT
Courtesy of Economic Policy Journal we now know that the majority of American states are currently insolvent, and that the US Treasury has been conducting a shadow bailout of at least 32 US states. Over 60% of Americans receiving state unemployment benefits are getting these directly from the US government, as 32 states have now borrowed $37.8 billion from Uncle Sam to fund unemployment insurance. The states in most dire condition, are, not unexpectedly, the unholy trifecta of California ($6.9 billion borrowed), Michigan ($3.9 billion), and New York ($3.2 billion). With this form of shadow bailout occurring, one can only wonder how many other shadow programs are currently in operation to fund states under the table with federal money.The full list of America's 32 insolvent states is below, sorted in order of bankruptedness.
h/t Jing
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| America Will Pass $13 Trillion In Total Debt Next Tuesday; $397 Billion In Debt Rolled Month To Date Posted: 21 May 2010 10:09 AM PDT
Total US debt just hit $12,987,823,000,000, $13 billion from lucky $13 trillion. As next week the US Treasury is auctioning off another gross $140+ billion in Bonds, we will pass this totally irrelevant resistance level on May 25, when Timmy issues another $42 billion of 2 Year Notes. The next important support level of $14 trillion will be surpassed around the time the Democrats get destroyed in the mid-term elections, while the statutory debt limit of $14.3 trillion will likely have to be raised in January 2011 by a new republican majority, an action which will promptly reduce popular republican support following their ladnslide election victory, thus starting the pointless D->R->D->R etc cycle all over again. Also, at approximately that time headlines that US debt is now 100% of GDP will bring the US bond vigilantes out of hibernation and will send US interest rates soaring, assisted by Ben Bernanke's most recent announcement that the Fed will is once again"forced" to purchase another $1.5 trillion in treasuries and mortgages. Stepping away from the Ouija board, we also notice that so far in April, the Treasury has rolled another unsustainable amount of Treasuries: $397 billion, of which $$359 billion is in Bills. The clock to the US' hyperstagflationary period is now ticking louder than ever
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| Posted: 21 May 2010 10:06 AM PDT Gold futures soften but close off overnight low The COMEX June gold futures contract closed down $12.50 Friday at $1176.10, trading between $1166.00 and $1188.00 May 21, p.m. excerpts: see full news, 24-hr newswire… May 21st's audio MarketMinute
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| Gold could be headed higher... much sooner than you think Posted: 21 May 2010 10:06 AM PDT From Jesse's Cafe Americain: A "Cup and Handle" is a bullish continuation pattern in an uptrend. The 'cup' is best shaped as a "U" and the broader the bottom the better. The 'handle' is a retracement when the right side of the 'cup' reaches its prior highs. The handle often resembles a bullish pennant. The retracement usually does not exceed 1/3 of the advance of the cup to its second high, although it can go as deep as 1/2 in a volatile market. Here is a textbook picture of... Read full article... More on gold: The No. 1 thing to remember about gold Gold guru Turk: Gold to hit $8,000 by 2015 Why an epic gold rally is just getting started
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| Six Trends Converging to Destroy the Planet Posted: 21 May 2010 10:00 AM PDT If you're not tired already of hearing the phrase "perfect storm" bantered around with reckless abandon… a recent piece, "The Perfect Storm: Six Trends Converging on Collapse" could be just up your alley. Despite the unfortunate title, it's the kind of article you'd expect to cover the global selloff, collapse of the euro, and so forth. Fortunately it's not. It's all the other forces bent on destroying the world, and it's actually worth a look. Below is a short highlight from each of the six top trends. From The Huffington Post: 1. Climate Change: with a 90% degree of certainty, the world's top scientists believe that our planet's climate is changing at an accelerating pace, that these changes are caused by man, and will have increasingly severe consequences for our world. 2. Peak Oil: Our global economy and culture are built largely upon a reliance on cheap oil… in April the US military issued a report saying, "By 2012 surplus oil production capacity could entirely disappear, and as early as 2015, the shortfall in output could reach 10 million barrels per day." 3. Collapse of the World's Oceans: with 11 out of 15 of the world's major fisheries either in collapse, or in danger of collapse, our world's oceans are in serious trouble! 4. Deforestation: Over 50% of the world's forests have already disappeared, and much of the rest is in threatened. Deforestation contributes approximately 25% of all global greenhouse gasses, nearly double the 14% that transportation and industry sectors each contribute. 5. The Global Food Crisis: Soils, Weather and Water. For the first time since the "green revolution" started, our world is producing less food each year, yet its population continues to rise as we lose more top soil, arable land, and have less water for irrigation. 6. Over Population: This is the elephant in the room that few are talking about. In the last decade, we have added more people to the population of our planet than were added between the births of Jesus and Abraham Lincoln… There is simply no way we can achieve a sustainable future unless our population stops growing and starts shrinking. One could debate at least a few, if not all, of the points above. However, the reality is that alongside the potential collapse of the worldwide fiat currency system, there are a number of serious global problems gaining in severity and that are yet to be tackled. You can visit The Huffington Post to read the much longer and more detailed coverage of the perfect storm to gain additional perspective on the current state of the planet. Best, Rocky Vega, Six Trends Converging to Destroy the Planet originally appeared in the Daily Reckoning. The Daily Reckoning, offers a uniquely refreshing, perspective on the global economy, investing, gold, stocks and today's markets. Its been called "the most entertaining read of the day."
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| Ron Paul: Your identity is being stolen Posted: 21 May 2010 09:57 AM PDT By Ron Paul on LewRockwell.com: This free flow of fiat money from around the globe to Greece will not really save Greece as much as it will grant a temporary reprieve to central bankers from the consequences of their mistakes. Sadly, this will come at the expense of the Greek people and taxpayers in Europe and America. Taxpayers are of no consequence to either European or American central bankers. Even the mere desire for complete information on what they are up to in our name is rebuffed, as we saw last week in the Senate with the failure of Senator Vitter’s amendment containing my language to fully audit the fed. The hubris of powerful and secretive central bankers seems to know no bounds. If someone incurred debts against you as an individual, without your knowledge or consent, you would... Read full article... More from Ron Paul: Ron Paul: Don't call Obama a socialist Ron Paul: What I would do if I were President Ron Paul: How gold could save the U.S. dollar
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| A microcap stock even a value investor could love Posted: 21 May 2010 09:51 AM PDT From Buy Like Buffett: Today, I would like to take a look at a tiny industrial company known as The Eastern Company (EML). The Eastern Company is a Connecticut manufacturer of industrial hardware, security products, and metal products. This small manufacturer has been in business for over 150 years. Eastern Company is a microcap stock with a market share of just $80 million dollars. Shares have been beaten down since last summer, dropping 23.5%. The stock currently trades at just north of... Read full article... More on value investing: Legendary value firm just jumped into these 2 stocks Four cheap stocks investment legend Seth Klarman owns One of the world's top value investors is loading up on gold
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| Now's The Time To Switch to Alternative Energy Posted: 21 May 2010 09:44 AM PDT
As Robert Redford writes this week:
And if Alan Greenspan, John McCain, George W. Bush, Sarah Palin and others are right, the costs of that failed energy policy might be even higher.
Indeed, an new government study shows that North Sea wind and wave power could make Britain the "Saudi Arabia of renewable energy". For more on microgeneration and solar energy breakthroughs, see this, this, this and this. Moreover, Japan and other countries are funding large-scale projects to place solar collectors in orbit, and then send clean energy to Earth. And as I've written before, alcohol has more alternative energy applications than you might know:
Indeed, as I've previously noted, running equipment using alcohol should not increase food prices:
And as I pointed out last year:
Note: While energy conservation is not as sexy as generation, it is worth noting that power usage in American buildings could be reduced by 50%, largely by programming unused appliances to be shut off.
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| The Loonie's 'Gloom and Doom' Week Posted: 21 May 2010 09:29 AM PDT Ralph Shell submits: On a day when the equities market is tanking, leave it to CNBC to haul out the economic trash talkers like Nouriel Roubini. Stocks are due for another 20% decline and cash is the safest place, he claims. If the mattress is getting lumpy, put some cash in the survival room along with your gold coins, dry food and the organic seeds that are guaranteed to grow after global crises. Dr. Roubini, a perpetual bear, has been touting the return of hyperinflation, and a spike in interest rates as our government borrows another couple trillion, is seemingly unaware that the 10-year rate on US Treasuries is down to 3.25%. After the weakness in Asian and European equities last night, the US market shrugged off the lower opening and stages a rally. The dysfunctional euro, and Angela Merkel's reluctance to give bigger handouts to the needy Club Med cousins is cited as the prime cause. Complete Story »
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| Weekly Inflation Scorecard: Gold Wobbles Posted: 21 May 2010 09:22 AM PDT Hard Assets Investor submits: Real-time Monetary Inflation (last 12 months): - 2.4% Gold's upward momentum against the world's reserve currencies fizzled over the past week. The weakest currency in gold terms was sterling, which fell 0.5% for the week ending Thursday. Swiss francs slipped 0.3% against bullion. The euro gained 0.2%, the US dollar 3.3% and the yen 4.7%. Complete Story »
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| CIBC initates coverage of 7 gold stocks Posted: 21 May 2010 09:10 AM PDT Detour Gold (DGC.TSX) - Sector Outperformer, C$36 price target Osisko Mining (OSK.TSX) - Sector Outperformer, C$16 price target Kirkland Lake Gold (KGI.TSX) - Sector Outperformer, C$16 price target Lake Shore Gold (LSG.TSX) - Sector Performer, C$4.25 price target San Gold (SGR.TSXV) - Sector Performer, C$6 price target Rubicon Minerals (RMX.TSX) - Sector Underperformer, C$4 price target Rainy River Resources (RR.TSXV) - Sector Underperformer, C$5.50 price target 
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| Record EUR Shorts Decline Just Barely, As GBP Spec Shorts Hit All Time Record Posted: 21 May 2010 09:04 AM PDT
The CFTC's just released Commitment of Traders report indicates that Non-Commercial, speculative net positions in the Euro declined just marginally from -113,890 to -107,143 for the week ended May 18, Tuesday. With central banks throwing everything at shorts, up to and including the tungsten-plated kitchen sink, the response is surprisingly muted. However, with the major wave of SNB/ECB initiated forced short covering beginning on Thursday, and driving the EURUSD up by 300 pips from 1.21 in one day, we expect the short number to decline substantially. If it does not, "speculators" can tap themselves on the back for pulling off a feat bigger than even George Soros ever achieved- taking on all central banks and not wavering. If that is indeed the case, we salute them. On the other hand, Soros replicants are certainly on fire in the GBP: the cable saw a new record number of shorts in the past week, which increased by -4,557 to -76,745.
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| Re-pricing the World’s Credits Posted: 21 May 2010 09:00 AM PDT Wham! Bam! Whack! Smack! Markets took a beating yesterday. The Dow got walloped for a 376-point loss. Tellingly, gold lost only $4. Proportionately, it should have gone down nearly $40. The story was the same all over the world. Here in China, stocks fell…as they did everywhere else. And not just stocks – commodities went down too. Why? Traders and pundits are talking about trouble in Europe. According to the Reuters report, the sell-off came after Germany banned naked short selling. Those Germans! Always the party poopers. But when markets are ready to roll over, they'll do so. Commentators and analysts can look for the 'cause,' but they are just making noise. Still, we suggest that they take their eyes off the naked Germans. Instead, they might want to take a look at what is going on in the US of A… The Great Correction is a worldwide phenomenon, but it is centered in America. The US economy is changing. As a result, all the world's credits need to be re-priced. What does that mean? Just that much of the world economy was geared to a trend that has come to an end – the growth and leveraging of the US consumer economy. Here in China, for example, much of the export apparatus is set up to service US households. Much of the rest of it faces the opposite direction – towards Europe. But the old world and the new world are both beginning to look a little stale. Both have too much debt. Both have made too many promises to too many people. We are now, broadly speaking, in the process of debt de-leveraging. The private sector in America is paying down and defaulting on debt. In the housing market, for example, delinquencies and foreclosures are at peak levels. And demand for new mortgage loans is at a 13-year low. Since so much of the wealth of the country rested on housing prices, it is not surprising that a write-down in house prices would be as unwelcome as Chinese wallboard. In fact, it's hard to find a place that hasn't been affected. People have less money; they spend less. They have too much debt; they borrow less. Sales go down. And the banks that hold much of this debt go bust. The FDIC says it has 775 banks on its "problem" list. When sales go down, so does employment. The latest figures show jobless claims rising again. Among the poor and uneducated, the unemployment rate is over 30% Meanwhile, the de-leveraging process is clearly seen in falling consumer and wholesales prices. Demand goes down; so do prices. Both indexes are down, with less consumer inflation than at any time in more than 40 years. In Europe, the process of de-leveraging focuses on governments. By and large, households are much sounder, financially, in Europe than they are in America. But governments are just as shaky…and sometimes in worse shape than in the US. The credits of Greece, Spain, and Portugal have already been marked down considerably. Most likely, the credits – bonds and currencies – of the others will follow. Governments tried to appease the market gods by offering to sacrifice virgins, widows, orphans, the rich and other taxpayers. Higher taxes and austerity measures are expected to give investors confidence. Naturally, neither the virgins nor the taxpayers were willing to go along. Neither were government employees, whose salaries and pensions are supposed to be cut. The process of de-leveraging is going to be long and hard, in any case. Most likely, it will end in bankruptcy, default and write-downs of public debt. At least Euroland has taken up the issue. On the other side of the Atlantic, few politicians, taxpayers, or investors see a problem. They believe the credit of the US is not only elastic, but with unlimited stretch. Wait 'til it snaps back! Bill Bonner Re-pricing the World's Credits originally appeared in the Daily Reckoning. The Daily Reckoning, offers a uniquely refreshing, perspective on the global economy, investing, gold, stocks and today's markets. Its been called "the most entertaining read of the day."
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| Posted: 21 May 2010 08:33 AM PDT
By Nic Lenoir of ICAP The first constatation looking at the EW count is that the downside moves are not complete. We finished this morning pre-open wave 3 for the S&P future and the Dax and subsequently bounced. I had given intraday sell level at 1,080/1,088 in the S&P, for the now this has held or close enough. It seems there could be a possibility to make an excess up to 1,093 on Monday but the top of this bounce could well be in already. People who sold the rebound should target 1,013/1,017 on the downside. This would coincide with both the wave 5 downside extension and the C = A if we assume that since the tops we are simply doing an ABC correction before resuming the bull trend. It is not my view, but I do think we wil bounce once we get to 1,013/1,017, possibly to retest the 200-dma. For now we focus on staying short with a stop on a daily close above the 200-dma. We see a similar price action for the Dax. We may rally a little bit more up to 5,880 but after that we should go test 5,600/5,510 at the minimum.
In FX markets we see a very similar pattern with an incomplete bearish impulse in AUDUSD and AUDJPY. For AUDUSD I see the bounce reaching at most 0.8570/0.8600 and the subsequent sell-off could take possibly all the way to 0.7742.
Similarly I added the 10Y US treasury future chart. As long as we do not close on day below 120-30 the next target is 123-03. In that sense the flattening of the curve should continue unabatted. We had recommended selling 2/10 on the bounce to retest the neckline of the H&S at 266, and it feels we could keep moving as low as 230. As long as we remain in a de-risking environment more pressure on the curve is to be expected with 1Y1Y fwd rates already at historic lows.
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Gold hit a two-week low but bounced off its weakest levels as investors resumed buying the metal due to worries about Europe's ongoing sovereign-debt issues. The initial decline was blamed largely on selling to raise money for margin calls in other markets that suffered this week. Benchmark gold actually hit its $1,166 bottom in after-hours screen trading Thursday night when investors were still reeling from that day's 376.36-point decline in the Dow Jones Industrial Average…
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