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Tuesday, July 21, 2015

Gold World News Flash

Gold World News Flash


Missing Gold, Unpayable Debts, Financial Crises, Bail-Outs and Bail-Ins… There Must Be a Better Way

Posted: 20 Jul 2015 11:01 PM PDT

Bail-Outs: The US congress bailed-out the banking sector, General Motors, and others with $700 Billion from TARP. The Federal Reserve added approximately $4 Trillion to their balance sheet with...

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Gold Gets Ambushed In Asia…

Posted: 20 Jul 2015 10:30 PM PDT

from Chuck Butler, Daily Pfennig:

I have BIG News regarding Gold this morning, and it's not good news either, so don't skip around trying to find it, as I'll have it Front and Center for you after the daily introduction… We had storms rip through the area last night, and the power to our house was cut… It had been a very long time since the power was off for any length of time at our house, so we got out the candles, Alex got out his acoustic guitar, and we waited patiently… I finally went to bed, and woke up this morning with the power back on! YAHOO! It's funny, not funny ha-ha, but funny like this milk has gone bad, that we depend so much on electricity… Shoot even camping we had electricity! Elvis greets me this morning with his song: Can't Help Falling In Love… No one sings those ballads like the great Elvis Presley…

Front and Center this morning, things have gotten very ugly with Gold in the Asian session folks… Here's the skinny as far as I know… In Shanghai and the Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE) close to 5 Tonnes of Gold was sold on the SGE in a two minute window in a market where the normal amount of Gold traded on a daily basis is 25 Tonnes… The August 15 Comex Gold contract also saw 7,600 contracts traded in the same two-minute window, the paper trades led off and I would think caused the HUGE sell off in the SGE…

Read More @ dailypfennig.com

Are the Production or Consumption Drivers of the Gold Price?

Posted: 20 Jul 2015 10:00 PM PDT

SunshineProfits

Gold is Getting Slaughtered – With or Without Yellen

Posted: 20 Jul 2015 09:40 PM PDT

by Lawrence Williams, MineWeb.com:

The sooner the U.S. Fed makes a definitive announcement on when it will commence interest rate rises the better. The effects of the yo-yo announcements on this, and on US data which would appear to see interest rate rises happening sooner – or needing to be postponed again – are having a hugely negative impact on the gold price. A Fed decision on the date will at least remove this from the equation. A definitive date may well see the gold price driven down yet further when it is announced, but thereafter normal trading should apply and there is something of a consensus that the price may at least recover a little given the interest rate rises will be very small – and one would think have already been priced in.

The pattern to date sees the news of an interest rate rise marking down the gold price. But when the next piece of news comes out suggesting this may not be the case, gold only recovers a tad. This has been happening for the best part of a year or more now – indeed ever since Janet Yellen announced the Fed would be ending QE and look at raising rates. This has seen the gold price decline almost in steps, from the mid $1300s down to the $1130s level, while a massive gold sale on the Shanghai Exchange today has now pushed it down to nearer $1100 – indeed the price fell below this level at one stage.

Read More @ MineWeb.com

British Pound Still Rallying Against Swiss Franc

Posted: 20 Jul 2015 08:47 PM PDT

Forex markets have posted some significant trends so far in 2015.  But when we look at the overall value of the British Pound (GBP), the comparisons are generally made against either the Euro or the US Dollar.  There is a strong basis for this fact, as both of these currencies see much larger trading volumes than some of the other selections that are available in the currency markets. 

Greeks Wondering what Happened to Referendum “No” Vote – Money & Metals with David Morgan

Posted: 20 Jul 2015 08:00 PM PDT

The Case Of China’s Missing Gold

Posted: 20 Jul 2015 07:41 PM PDT

from Zero Hedge:

“Following China’s official revelation on Friday that, for the first time since April 2009, it increased its gold holdings by “only” over 600 tons – supposedly in one month, which goes without saying is impossible and confirms how even the PBOC not only cooks its books but is willing to confirm that it does so – many have sprung to ask: what is really going on behind the scenes at the central bank which even Bloomberg’s conservative estimates saw its gold tripling to over 3,510 tons.

Perhaps the answer is very simple: while many assume that the only reason China revealed (some of) its latest gold holdings is to further bolster its case for admission into the IMF’s Special Drawing Right, the real reason why the PBOC may have resorted to telegraph to the world that it has much more gold is simply to prop up its markets.

Impossible?

Read More @ ZeroHedge.com

The Greek Economy Is Finished! A Quarter Of Firms Shifting Abroad

Posted: 20 Jul 2015 07:00 PM PDT

Capital controls imposed by the Greek government are taking a heavy toll on Greek businesses, according to a new report from Endeavour Greece. With over two-thirds of respondents reporting a "significant drop in revenues," and 1 in 9 firms forced to suspend production due to shortages of raw materials (unable to buy due to capital controls), the problems created by The Greek government's action seem asymmetric as almost a quarter (23%) of firms are now "planning to transfer their headquarters abroad for security, cashflow, and stability reasons."

 

 

As ekathimerini reports,

Endeavour Greece, a non-profit group that supports entrepreneurs, found that 58 percent of the 300 companies it surveyed between July 13 and July 17 reported a "significant impact on their operations caused by the limitations imposed to cross-border transactions."

 

"Many of these companies cannot import raw material or have access to foreign services and infrastructure," the group said in a statement, adding that 23 percent "plan to transfer their headquarters abroad for security, cash flow and stability reasons."

 

More than two thirds of the companies – 69 percent – reported a "significant drop in turnover," with 11 percent forced to decrease or suspend production due to shortages of raw materials.

 

Greece imposed a raft of capital controls on July 29, closing the banks and restricting cash withdrawals in a bid to prevent a disastrous bank run from draining money out of the financial system.

 

Banks reopened on Monday and restrictions on cash withdrawals have been partially relaxed, though the capital controls remain in place.

 

Endeavour Greece reported that businesses were facing "significant impediments" due to the continuing ATM limits, but on "a smaller scale."

 

Nearly half of the companies – 45 percent – said they had been forced to postpone payments to suppliers.

This offers little hope for a silver lining as the nation is hollowed out. As Jeffrey Sachs notes, the formula for success is to match reforms with debt relief, in line with the real needs of the economy.

A smart creditor of Greece would ask some serious and probing questions. How can we help Greece to get credit moving again within the banking system? How can we help Greece to spur exports? What is needed to promote the rapid growth of small and medium-size Greek enterprises?

 

For five years now, Germany has not asked these questions. Indeed, over time, questions have been replaced by German frustration at Greeks’ alleged indolence, corruption, and incorrigibility. It has become ugly and personal on both sides. And the creditors have failed to propose a realistic approach to Greece’s debts, perhaps out of Germany’s fear that Italy, Portugal, and Spain might ask for relief down the line.

 

Whatever the reason, Germany has treated Greece badly, failing to offer the empathy, analysis, and debt relief that are required. And if it did so to scare Italy and Spain, it should be reminded of Kant’s categorical imperative: Countries, like individuals, should be treated as ends, not means.

 

Creditors are sometimes wise and sometimes incredibly stupid. America, Britain, and France were incredibly stupid in the 1920s to impose excessive reparations payments on Germany after World War I. In the 1940s and 1950s, the United States was a wise creditor, giving Germany new funds under the Marshall Plan, followed by debt relief in 1953.

 

In the 1980s, the US was a bad creditor when it demanded excessive debt payments from Latin America and Africa; in the 1990s and later, it smartened up, putting debt relief on the table. In 1989, the US was smart to give Poland debt relief (and Germany went along, albeit grudgingly). In 1992, its stupid insistence on strict Russian debt servicing of Soviet-era debts sowed the seeds for today’s bitter relations.

Germany’s demands have brought Greece to the point of near-collapse, with potentially disastrous consequences for Greece, Europe, and Germany’s global reputation. This is a time for wisdom, not rigidity. And wisdom is not softness. Maintaining a peaceful and prosperous Europe is Germany’s most vital responsibility; but it is surely its most vital national interest as well.

Charting The Slow, 30-Year Death Of The US Middle Class In A Global Context

Posted: 20 Jul 2015 05:45 PM PDT

When it comes to the favorable aspects of capitalism, one thing is clear: with the largest concentration of millionaires and billionaires from around the globe, the US is second to none when it comes to letting the entrepreneurial spirit flourish and rewarding it (and letting the rich get even richer).

Unfortunately, when it comes to the malignant, "crony" aspects of capitalism, the US is also the world's undisputed leader.

Because while we have shown previously that over the past 30 years median incomes in the US have barely grown (indicative of a middle class whose income has been largely stagnant for some 35 years), we have never before shown just what how this middle class "stasis" looks like in comparison to other developed nations. Now, thanks to Max Roser and "Our world in Data", we know. Sadly, in this particular sample of median income growth since 1980, the US is dead last, behind such countries as the UK, Canada and even Spain and France!

 

Of course, the chart above does not mean that the entire US population have seen their wealth stuck at virtually the same level in the past 35 years. Only 90% of it. As for the remaining, top 1%, the past 35 years is precisely when the sky became the limit...

 

... and perhaps also why, as we wondered previously, there is nothing more hated by the very same 1% who have benefitted the most from the unbridled proliferation of credit money since the advent of the Greenspan regime, than the gold standard.

Gold Price Plummeted $25.10 or 2.2 Percent Closing at $1,106.70

Posted: 20 Jul 2015 05:41 PM PDT

20-Jul-15PriceChange% Change
Gold Price, $/oz1,106.70-25.10-2.32%
Silver Price, $/oz14.75-0.08-0.51%
Gold/Silver Ratio75.056-1.327-1.80%
Silver/Gold Ratio0.0133-0.0002-1.77%
Platinum Price990.20-10.80-1.08%
Palladium Price611.05-6.95-1.12%
S&P 5002,128.281.640.08%
Dow18,100.4113.960.08%
Dow in GOLD $s338.09-7.58-2.19%
Dow in GOLD oz16.36-0.37-2.19%
Dow in SILVER oz1,227.56-5.32-0.43%
US Dollar Index98.160.170.17%

3 Day Gold Price Chart
30 Day Gold Price Chart
5 Year Gold Price Chart
3 Day Silver Price Chart
30 Day Silver Price Chart
5 Year Silver Price Chart
The GOLD PRICE plummeted $25.10 (2.2%) to $1,106.70, with a low at $1,080. SILVER lost only 7.5 cents (0.5%) to $14.745. GOLD/SILVER RATIO dropped 1.7% to 75.056.

Y'all remember those puzzles they used to have when we were children (back when dirt was young) where you had to locate all ten things that were out of place? For instance, the pig in the picture picking his teeth with a radio, or a hummingbird with a saddle on his back. Today we're going to look for what doesn't fit.

Ned Schmidt wrote this morning, "The last time the Street was this bearish on gold was in 2007." I didn't check his numbers, but that sounds about right. Reuters headline today screamed "Morgan Stanley touches 7 year high, Gold touches 5 year low." Perfect headline to show max confidence in financial system and minimum confidence in its opposite, gold, and a metals' low. Other than ridgerunners like me from Tennessee, why, you couldn't find a radioactive gold bug if you had a Geiger counter. Lo, the Fear of Deflation lieth heavy on them all.

Is there any sign at all silver and GOLD PRICES might turn around? Well, no dramatic reversal yet, but other signs that make me scratch my head.

** Gold price made a new low for the post 2011 bear market, but the volume. was lower than the 7 November 2014 low at $1,130.40 (250,336 v 285,380).

** Gold prices punched through its 3 standard deviation lower Bollinger Band.

** Gold's RSI is more oversold today than it was in November 2014.

** MACD, Rate of Change, and Full stochastics are in about the same condition there were last November.

Silver's interesting, too:

** Silver price made a new low for this move today at $14.49, but on lower volume than the 7 July low at $14.62 (58,621 vs. 87,204). That might -- might -- signal a double bottom.

** at the 7 July low silver punched into its 3-sigma lower Bollinger Band. Today it didn't, although the price was lower.

** Several silver cycles converge here with a target low at $14.65, according to the cycles expert I read. (It give me a headache to do cycles.)

Gold/Silver Ratio is more interesting still.

Gold/Silver Ratio
** The Ratio fell like a plumb bob off a four story wall. That ain't right. That just ain't right. It's one of the biggest plunges of the last 10 months, but when metals are weak silver is almost always weaker than gold. What is this? Gold makes a new bottom, drops 2.2% to a five year low, but silver only drops 1/2%? Ratio drops 1.7%? Ratio closes just barely UNDER the uptrend line from the April 2011 low? Below its 20 DMA? Mercy, the Ratio ought to be RISING but it falls. Y'all look for yourself, chart on the right:

Now add to all that improving Commitments of Traders numbers for silver and gold, and these things don't all fit into the picture of markets about to plunge further.

But them is just the observations of a nat'ral born durned fool from Tennessee, and I ain't no millionaire. Shucks, I ain't even hardly a thousandaire.

Other markets just seem pale and watery after silver and gold. Stocks tried their best to get up out of bed today, made the effort, then decided just to lie down again. Dow reached as high at 10,137 but ended up only 13.96 (0.08%) at 18,100.41. S&P500 added 1.64 (0.08% to 2,128.28).

US dollar index is running out of fuel fast, tracing out a rising wedge. Rose 17 basis points (0.18%) to 98.16. Whatever it does the rest of its life, looks like it's fixin' to take a leetle rest right here. Euro lost another 0.21% to $1.0808, on it's way to par with the dollar -- or less. Yen lost 0.18% to 80.46.

The other inflation markets, oil and copper, fell modestly today, down 1.06% and 0.88%, but not to hold a candle to gold or silver.

Okay, Moneychanger, what are you saying? I'm saying a lot of things in the silver and gold price chart do not look like sharply lower prices are coming immediately. One thing I would like to see is a very sharp reversal day, preferably one that makes a new low by a teentch, then shoots up way higher than the day before's close. Judging by the number of calls we got today, I reckon there are a lot of buyers out there satisfied to buy at these prices.

Aurum et argentum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2015, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission. To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 18 ounces of silver. or 18 ounces of silver. US $ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.

Jade Helm has gone live -- Martial Law has begun

Posted: 20 Jul 2015 05:30 PM PDT

Jade Helm Militia and Military Firefight Debunked , Spread this everywhere! Live coverage of Jade Helm 7/20/15, martial law has begun! The Financial Armageddon Economic Collapse Blog tracks trends and forecasts , futurists , visionaries , free investigative journalists , researchers ,...

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Gold and Silver: The Final Capitulation Commences

Posted: 20 Jul 2015 05:25 PM PDT

Background

The first 10 years of the bull market in gold was in hindsight plain sailing allowing us to generate profits by sticking with the trend. Alas all bull markets come to an end and so it did in 2011 when gold peaked at $1900/oz. Silver, despite having numerous industrial uses also felt the draft and fell dramatically along with the mining sector which lost approximately 70% of its value during a 3 year period of pure carnage.

This pattern of falling stock prices interrupted by sudden price hikes has characterized the precious metals sector for the last three years or so. Unfortunately the bounces were rarely of the same magnitude of the preceding falls in prices and so we have witnessed the Gold Bugs Index,

"The Spell Is Broken" In China, Selling Pressure To Remain "Relentless": BofAML

Posted: 20 Jul 2015 05:15 PM PDT

Just three days ago, we outlined the series of events that ultimately led Beijing to transform China Securities Finance Corp into a half-trillion dollar, state-sponsored margin trading Frankenstein.

To recap, two weeks ago the PBoC said it was set to inject capital into China Securities Finance Corp., which is effectively a subsidiary of the China Securities Regulatory Commission. "China's central bank is now underwriting brokerages' margin lending businesses," we said, before driving the point home with this: "The PBoC is now in the business of financing leveraged stock buying."

Since then, the plunge protection funds channeled through the CSF have ballooned and on Friday, China's commercial banks agreed to lend another CNY209 billion to the margin finance vehicle. All in, the CSF has around $483 billion in available funds it can use to "support" Chinese stocks. 

Amusingly, China sounded the all clear on Monday as officials claimed that "timely measures" had arrested (perhaps literally) the panic and restored "order" to the market. If "order" means the conditions which persisted prior to June, then we suppose margin trading that totals nearly 20% of the free float market cap and straight-line, limit up buying is just around the corner.

China is apparently so confident that three week's worth of unprecedented (and comically absurd) intervention has stabilized the situation and repaired what we still contend is irreparable damage to the collective psyche of the Chinese retail investor, that the PBoC is set to wind down the CSF's plunge protection activities just days after several commercial banks pledged billions more in support for the margin lender.

The CSRC is "studying stock stabilization fund exit plan," Bloomberg reported on Monday morning, citing Caijing. The market's response was not favorable:

 

 

Although Chinese stocks closed green after the CSRC said it would "continue to focus on stabilizing [the] market and preventing systemic risks," it seems clear that China's unsustainable equity bubble is ... well, rather unsustainable without explicit government support.

That of course is bad news for China in terms of its push to liberalize markets and promote the yuan in international investment and trade by projecting an air of stepped up transparency and market-based reforms. 

BofAML has more on why Beijing's attempts to support equities will ultimately fail (note the reference to the "broken spell" which is another way of saying what we said weeks ago about the change in retail investors' mentaility) and on the negative effect intervention has on China's international reputation. 

*  *  *

From BofAML

The A-share market may see another leg down within months

Forces holding up the market may not last long

In our view, the short-term stability in the A-share market was achieved at the expense of: 1) the government's reform credentials and 2) the wallets of state-directed entities, including brokers, banks, insurers and the PBoC. Faced with relentless selling pressure, neither of these two can last long, in our opinion. As a result, we expect the market to experience another leg down, possibly within months

The price for the short-term market stability is heavy.

Essentially, how the government stabilized the market was by limiting selling activity and then using state-directed money to buy broadly in the market (Table 1, a detailed list of the government's market-supporting measures since late June). At the peak, roughly half of the A-shares were suspended from trading (Chart 1) and the police heavy-handedly investigated selling activities, especially in the index futures market. Meanwhile, banks may have provided an Rmb2tr credit line, in addition to the PBoC's lending, to the China Securities Finance Corp (CSFC) for it to buy stocks directly or indirectly. Based on media reports, CSFC had probably spent at least Rmb860bn by Jul 17 to support the market.

Reform credential is important to the government.

What happened in recent weeks has made many question the government's reform resolve. As a result, we believe that the government's desire to roll back the administrative controls is strong.

Given the expensive market valuation, the Prisoner's Dilemma dictates that most state directed buyers may want to stop buying and reduce their stock exposure as soon as possible. That means that the buyer of the last resort will be the PBoC, via direct lending to the CSFC or by underwriting bank loans to the CSFC. If this practice persists for long, it may do the PBoC's reputation irreversible damage and hurt RMB's globalization. In addition, loans to the CSFC may crowd out bank lending in the real economy by using up their loan quotas.

Selling pressure will likely remain relentless.

Now that the spell is broken, we expect that many holders may want to sell to the forced buyers in the market. In addition, although difficult to assess accurately, due to a lack of data, we estimate that around 1/5 of the free float is still carried on margin. The high margin cost means that selling pressure is high as long as investors do not expect the market to go up significantly.

Lindsey Williams: New Major Warning From His Elite Friend!!!

Posted: 20 Jul 2015 04:30 PM PDT

 Pastor Lindsey Williams just received a new email from his Elite friend and his friend revealed the most recent Financial plans of the elite. WORLD WIDE FINANCIAL COLLAPSE between September and December 2015 according to Lindsey's elite friend. The Financial Armageddon Economic Collapse...

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The Case Of China’s Missing Gold

Posted: 20 Jul 2015 04:04 PM PDT

Following China's official revelation on Friday that, for the first time since April 2009, it increased its gold holdings by "only" over 600 tons - supposedly in one month, which goes without saying is impossible and confirms how even the PBOC not only cooks its books but is willing to confirm that it does so - many have sprung to ask: what is really going on behind the scenes at the central bank which even Bloomberg's conservative estimates saw its gold tripling to over 3,510 tons.

Perhaps the answer is very simple: while many assume that the only reason China revealed (some of) its latest gold holdings is to further bolster its case for admission into the IMF's Special Drawing Right, the real reason why the PBOC may have resorted to telegraph to the world that it has much more gold is simply to prop up its markets.

Impossible?

Recall what little-noticed quote Reuters cited on July 3, just as Chinese stocks were plummeting 7% on a daily basis, with index futures halted limit down, and half of Chinese stocks halted from trading:

The Shanghai Composite Index plummeted more than 7 percent at one point in early trade. It ended the morning session down 3.3 percent at 3.785.6 points, heading for a weekly loss of nearly 10 percent. "This is a stock disaster. If it's not, what is it?" said Fu Xuejun, strategist at Huarong Securities Co.

 

"The government must rescue the market, not with empty words, but with real silver and gold," he said, saying a full-blown market crash would endanger the banking system, hit consumption and trigger social instability.

Perhaps all the PBOC did was take Fu's advice, and gently pull the curtain on what its true holdings are for no other reason than to restore confidence in its balance sheet and from there, to stabilize the market.

Incidentally, this is precisely what we said on Friday when the PBOC stunner hit the wires. Recall what China SAFE's official explanation was for the unexpected revelation:

Gold as a special asset, with multiple attributes financial and commodities, together with other assets to help regulate and optimize the overall risk-return characteristics of international reserves portfolio. From the perspective of long-term and strategic perspective, if necessary, dynamically adjusted international reserves portfolio allocation, safety, liquidity and increasing the value of international reserve assets.

And as we further noted "China had to wait until its stock market was crashing to present the "systemic stability" bazooka: gold. Because in revealing a surge in its gold holdings, the PBOC is hoping to finally provide that final missing link that will boost investor sentiment, and get people buying stocks all over again."

And now that the seal has been finally broken after so many years, and since today's update indicates that Chinese gold numbers are clearly goal-seeked with a specific policy purpose - to boost confidence - we await for the PBOC to start leaking incremental gold holding data every month (and especially in months when the market crashes) which will bring us ever closer to what China's true gold holdings are.

So perhaps it is a simple case of revealing the PBOC owns more gold than expected simply to preserve some more confidence after engaging in an unprecedented series of "plunge protecting" events few of which have had much success (at least until threats of outright arrests of sellers emerged).

Then another potential explanation was offered by Telegraph's Ambrose Evans-Pritchard who late today quoted Sharps Pixley's analyst Ross Norman as saying that "the level of gold reserves announced by China massively understates the country's true holdings. "We think they have at least twice as much, maybe even 4,000 tonnes," he said. "Sharps Pixley said a "seismic change" is under way in the bullion markets as economic power shifts to the East, boosting gold prices over time."

A division of the People's Liberation Army mines gold and transfers the metal to the Chinese finance ministry, acting outside normal commercial channels. The government also buys gold directly from Chinese producers. This is an internal transaction and is therefore not necessarily recorded in China's external reserves.

Then AEP goes on to quote David Marsh, from the monetary forum OMFIF, who said "China would risk unsettling the world gold market if it revealed bullion reserves of 2,000 or 3,000 tonnes. This might be interpreted as an unfriendly move against the dollar at a "delicate time."

And from a purely logical standpoint, it would be far more sensible for the PBOC to reveal just a fraction of its gold holdings, whether it was to stabilize its stock market or to boost its chances of SDR admission, than to expose the entire vault, especially if it wanted to buy more: it doesn't take rocket surgery to realize that one can buy more assets for cheaper, if one is not exposed as amassing a huge position in a given asset.

So the next question is if China does indeed have more gold than is represented, and if the PBOC is simply exposing its holdings one month at a time for whatever reason (especially since we know the PBOC did not buy 600+ tons in the month of June), then where is this gold "hidden" or, rather, where did all of China's gold - the thousands of tons both mined domestically and imported over the past five years - go?

One answer is presented by Louis Cammarasno in the following Smaulgld blog post:

"The Case Of China's Missing Gold"

  • The People's Bank of China Updates Its Gold Reserve Holdings
  • Chinese Gold reserves jump 604 tons from 1,054 tons last reported in 2009 to 1,658 tons.
  • Many gold observers ask – 'Is that it'?
  • Since 2009 China has mined over 2,000 tons of gold and imported over 3,300 tons of gold through Hong Kong*.
  • Where did it all go?

The Case of China's Missing Gold

On July 17, 2015, the People's Bank of China (PBOC) updated its gold reserves holdings for the first time since 2009. The PBOC reported adding 604 tons of gold to their reserves bringing the total from 1,054 tons to 1,658 tons.

The PBOC announcement was widely anticipated as a pre-requisite of China's application for inclusion in the International Monetary Funds' (IMF) Special Drawing Rights ("SDRs").

China's announced gold reserves are a respectible amount, but far lower than what many gold observers believe China has.

1,658 Tons of Gold – Good Enough For the IMF?

Having large gold reserves are not required to be in the SDR. England is in the SDR and has just over 310 tons of gold.

We have argued that China's primary objective is not acceptance into the SDR but rather to establish a viable parallel international financial structure to rival the IMF.

We think China holds a portion of its gold at the PBOC as reserves with the rest held elsewhere in China.

The PBOC's updated gold reserves are five times more than England's and certainly enough to show the financial heft required for admission to the SDR. The PBOC doesn't need to report thousands of tons of gold to get into the SDR and they don't need to upstage their largest single country trading partner, the United States at this point (whose stated gold reserves are 8,135 tons).

China's recent update to its gold holdings put it in fifth place among gold holding nations.

How China Reported The Update to its Gold Reserves

The PBOC's addition of more than 600 tons of gold to their reserves showed up as a single entry in June 2015!

Unlike Russia that reports increases in its gold reserves monthly (that we catalogue here), the PBOC chose to include all of the increase in its gold reserves since 2009 in just one month.

The People's Bank of China supposedly added 1,943,000 ounces of gold (approx 600 tons) to its reserves in June.

How Much Gold is There in China?

The additional amount of gold that the PBOC reported doesn't seem to square with publically available reports on the amount of Chinese gold production and imports.

Chinese Mining Production

China is now the world's largest gold mining nation and exports virtually none of it.

China has produced over 2,000 tons of gold since 2009.

Chinese Mining Reserves

There's plenty more where that came from!

On June 25, 2015, Zhang Bignan Chairman and Secretary General of the China Gold Association presented this slide at London Bullion Market forum indicating that China's gold mining reserves were approximately 9,800 tons.

According to the Chairman and Secretary General of the China Gold Association, China has over 9,800 tons of gold in mining reserves.

Chinese Gold Imports

China has also ramped up its gold imports significaly since 2009. From 2010 to May 2015 net Chinese gold imports through Hong Kong were well over 3,300 tons.

Chinese gold imports through Hong Kong have amounted to over 3,300 tons since 2009.

*China also imports an undisclosed, but large amount of gold through Shanghai.

Chinese Gold Trading on the Shanghai Gold Exchange

In addition to massive gold production and imports, China also operates the Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE) a major physical gold trading hub. Withdrawals of physical gold on the SGE to date in 2015 are well over 1,200 tons and over 9,000 tons since January 2009.

Withdrawals of physical gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange are well over 1,200 tons year to date in 2015.

Who's Got the Chinese Gold?

If Chinese gold mining production and imports through Hong Kong and Shanghai don't end up at the PBOC, where is it?

The Chinese People

A good portion of Chinese gold is with its citizens. The famed gold crazed "Da Ma" or Chinese housewives who buy any dip in gold prices supposedly hold a good portion of the nation's gold. Some estimate that Chinese citizens hold thousands of tons of gold. One estimate claims Chinese citizens hold 6,000 tons of gold.

Chinese State Owned Banks

Perhaps another chunk of the Chinese nation's gold is held in other state owned banks, not necessarily with the PBOC, such as the Agricultural Bank of China, Bank of China, China Construction Bank, China Development Bank and Industrial and Commerical Bank of China all located, like the PBOC, in Beijing, China.

Chinese Sovereign Wealth Fund

The China Investment Corporation (CIC), also located in Bejiing, is a sovereign wealth fund responsible for managing part of the People's Republic of China's foreign exchange reserves. The CIC has $746.7 billion in assets under management and reports to the State Council of the People's Republic of China.

Off Balance Sheet Accounting?

The CIC lists $225.321 billion in finacial assets and about $3.130 billion of "other assets" on its balance sheet. It's possible that some of these "assets" are in the form of gold.

The CIC has three subsidiaries: CIC International (responsible for internatonal equity and bond investments), CIC Capital (direct investments) and Central Huijin (equity investments in Chinese state owned financial institutions and state owned enterprises).

Central Huijin owns significant equity stakes in each of: Agricultural Bank of China (40.28%), Bank of China (65.52%), China Construction Bank(57.26%), China Development Bank (47.63%) and Industrial and Commerical Bank of China (35.12%).

For a gold backed Chinese Remnimbi 1,658 tons of gold reserves are insufficient, but for admission to the SDR are perfectly adequate.

If indeed China holds gold with the CIC and/or with any of the Chinese state owned banks, the PBOC could roll up that gold on to its own balance sheet in order to show more gold reserves quickly and easily in one month with a single entry.

William Binney : This Is Minority Report

Posted: 20 Jul 2015 03:30 PM PDT

 Alex Jones talks with whistleblower William Binney about how the government is working on systems that would allow them to predict and control the future. The Financial Armageddon Economic Collapse Blog tracks trends and forecasts , futurists , visionaries , free investigative...

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China Buys Gold, Gold Price Sinks!

Posted: 20 Jul 2015 02:46 PM PDT

Bullion Vault

Gold Drops Below Critical Support Levels

Posted: 20 Jul 2015 02:38 PM PDT

Gold Stock Bull

Telegraph sniffs out a little disinformation surrounding gold smash

Posted: 20 Jul 2015 01:31 PM PDT

But might not those "powerful speculators" be central banks themselves?

* * *

Speculators Smash Gold as Dollar Squeeze Tightens

By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard
The Telegraph, London
Monday, July 20, 2015

Powerful speculators have launched an unprecedented attack on the world gold market, driving prices to a five-year low as commodities wilt and the U.S. Federal Reserve prepares to tighten monetary policy.

Spot prices slumped by more than 4 percent to $1,086 an ounce in overnight trading after anonymous funds sold 57 tonnes of gold in Shanghai and New York, choosing the moment of minimum market liquidity in what appears to have been a synchronized strike intended to smash confidence.

... Dispatch continues below ...



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The move came after China's central bank dismayed "gold bugs" by revealing that the country's bullion reserves stand at just 1,658 tonnes, far lower than widely assumed. While holdings have risen 60 percent since the last update in 2009, they are still a fraction of China's total $3.7 trillion foreign exchange reserves.

Ross Norman, a veteran gold analyst at brokers Sharps Pixley, said sellers dumped 7,600 contracts covering 24 tonnes on the Globex exchange in New York in a two-minute span after it opened late on Sunday night.

A further 33 tonnes were sold at almost exactly the same time in Shanghai. The combined hit of 57 tonnes in such a short period is an extraordinary event in the world's relatively small gold market. ...

Mr Norman said the level of gold reserves announced by China massively understates the country's true holdings. "We think they have at least twice as much, maybe even 4,000 tonnes," he said.

A division of the People's Liberation Army mines gold and transfers the metal to the Chinese finance ministry, acting outside normal commercial channels. The government also buys gold directly from Chinese producers. This is an internal transaction and is therefore not necessarily recorded in China's external reserves.

There is suspicion that China is talking down its true gold holdings as it prepares to join the big league as part of the International Monetary Fund's currency basket, SDRs.

David Marsh, from the monetary forum OMFIF, said China would risk unsettling the world gold market if it revealed bullion reserves of 2,000 or 3,000 tonnes. This might be interpreted as an unfriendly move against the dollar at a "delicate time," he said.

Sharps Pixley said a "seismic change" is under way in the bullion markets as economic power shifts to the East, boosting gold prices over time. ...

... For the remainder of the report:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/commodities/11752016/Speculators-smas...

* * *

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Jade Helm Finally Decoded

Posted: 20 Jul 2015 01:30 PM PDT

Episode 309 – Jade Helm 2 Decoded: Today we welcome a learned network/software engineer's analysis of what's really behind the exercise.Air Date – 6-11-15 The Financial Armageddon Economic Collapse Blog tracks trends and forecasts , futurists , visionaries , free investigative...

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Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts - Epitaph to a Tyrant

Posted: 20 Jul 2015 01:12 PM PDT

A Guessing Game on Gold

Posted: 20 Jul 2015 01:06 PM PDT

This post A Guessing Game on Gold appeared first on Daily Reckoning.

LONDON — Gold took a spill overnight, and set off the usual guessing game about what caused the move.

Having closed around $1,134 an ounce on Friday, gold dropped to a five-year low below $1,100 minutes after Chinese markets opened (it's since recovered about half the distance).

The truth about such moves is you very rarely know what caused them, especially not in real time.

Still, it's fun to speculate. So let's.

A possible catalyst, according to one story on the wires, is Friday's announcement by China's central bank that it holds 1,658 tons of gold.

This is up from the 1,054 tons it had in April 2009, the last time China announced its holdings, but way below what some pundits were expecting.

I must say I'm struggling a bit with the logic of this one. I'm not sure how China having less gold than some people thought (assuming we should believe them) is bearish for the metal.

If anything, it could be bullish – China may buy more.

From what I can glean, the thesis is that China's been amassing gold with a view to launching some kind of gold-back currency to challenge the dollar.

Now that China says it has less gold than some people thought, the prospects for such a currency have diminished, or so that argument seems to go. Hence less Chinese gold is bullish for the dollar, and thus bearish for the yellow metal.

Confused? I know I am. It's a weak argument in my view.

Besides, we should be wary of giving much weight to the official figure.

"China still has far more gold than it admits," says Jim Rickards in his latest update for Strategic Intelligence members.

As Jim's noted to me before, China can hold gold with the State Administration of Foreign Exchange and the China Investment Corporation, meaning it doesn't get reported as part of official central bank reserves.

It can then move some of that gold to the central bank, the People's Bank of China, as and when it wants to report a higher figure.

There's another "explanation" for gold's move bouncing around the newswires today. Gold fell, says this theory, because of the impending rise in US interest rates.

There are those that believe Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen will announce a hike in the target fed funds rate at September's Federal Open Market Committee meeting.

Fed watchers will know the market was previously looking for this to happen in June this year… and before that in March.

No one should (or likely will) be surprised if talk of a September hike is soon replaced by talk of it happening in December instead, or even next year.

So I'm not convinced by this explanation for gold's move either. Besides, why today? The market's been wittering about a possible September rate hike for weeks.

Here's an intriguing thought courtesy of Mr. Rickards, who's been closely watching China's effort to get its currency into the special drawing rights basket.

Issued to central banks by the International Monetary Fund, the SDR is a composite of major currencies and acts as a sort of supranational money.

China wants the yuan in the SDR because it wants to play a bigger role in the world's elite financial institutions, such as the IMF. To do this, it has to "play be the rules of the club", as Jim puts it.

Being transparent (or at least saying you are) about your gold holdings is one of those rules.

Here's where it gets interesting.

China faces a slowdown in economic growth. China has also pegged its currency to the dollar.

Traditionally, one way China might have looked to stimulate its economy is by devaluing the yuan, in the hope of boosting exports.

But that's not an option right now. A competitive devaluation would not be "playing by the rules of the club".

So China must maintain the dollar peg at its current level. Now, when you peg to another country's currency, you effectively outsource your monetary policy to that country's central bank.

In other words, interest rates in China are heavily influenced by what the Fed. Right now, a Fed rate hike would be bad news for Chinese policymakers trying to prop up slowing growth.

Another point to consider: Chinese president Xi Jinping makes his first state visit to Washington this September. Will the Fed really choose the same moment to raise interest rates, knowing it would hurt the Chinese economy?

We'll know in a few weeks…

Regards,

Ben Traynor
for The Daily Reckoning, U.K.

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The post A Guessing Game on Gold appeared first on Daily Reckoning.

In The News Today

Posted: 20 Jul 2015 12:10 PM PDT

Last Night’s Gold Slam So Furious It Halted The Market Not Once But Twice, And The Funniest "Explanation" Yet Submitted by Tyler Durden on 07/20/2015 12:35 -0400 Yesterday, just before the Chinese market opened, precious metals but mostly gold, flash crashed in milliseconds with a violent urgency never before seen. We documented the unprecedented event... Read more »

The post In The News Today appeared first on Jim Sinclair's Mineset.

Dave Kranzler: Gold and silver shortages acute, GLD is being looted again

Posted: 20 Jul 2015 12:08 PM PDT

3:07p ET Monay, July 20, 2015

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

The biggest bubble in the financial markets, Dave Kranzler of Investment Research Dynamics writes today, is the bubble in paper gold and silver. The brazenness of the recent raids on the monetary metals, Kranzler adds, is starting to open the eyes of otherwise respectable people in the financial markets. His commentary is headlined "Gold And Silver Shortages Become Acute -- GLD Is Being Looted Again" and it's posted at the Investment Research Dynamics Internet site here:

http://investmentresearchdynamics.com/gold-and-silver-shortages-become-a...

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org



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RED ALERT -- "New World Dollar" Coming Oct. 20, 2015?

Posted: 20 Jul 2015 12:00 PM PDT

 "New World Dollar" On October 20th , 2015 The International Monetary Fund is expected to a new reserve currency alternative to the US Dollar. The Financial Armageddon Economic Collapse Blog tracks trends and forecasts , futurists , visionaries , free investigative journalists ,...

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With gold flash crash U.S. aims to embarrass China, Turk says

Posted: 20 Jul 2015 11:52 AM PDT

2:50p ET Monday, July 20, 2015

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

GoldMoney founder James Turk, interviewed today by King World News, construes the overnight flash crash in gold as an embarrassing punishment inflicted by the United States on China for announcing an increase in its gold reserves.

Turk adds: "The intervention also had two other objectives. It was meant to scare any remaining weak hands into thinking that the United States still holds all the monetary cards and can bend the price of gold to its will. It also provided an opportunity for the bullion banks to cover short positions with massive profits by creating a selling climax with huge volumes being traded as the gold price fell."

Turk's interview is excerpted at the KWN blog here:

http://kingworldnews.com/u-s-and-western-central-banks-have-now-declared...

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org



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Mark O'Byrne: Other Chinese govt. agencies have been buying gold too

Posted: 20 Jul 2015 11:46 AM PDT

2:45p ET Monday, July 20, 2015

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

GoldCore's Mark O'Byrne notes today that the People's Bank of China, whose updating of its gold reserves Friday disappointed the gold market, isn't the only Chinese government agency that has been buying gold in recent years. For the State Administration of Foreign Exchange and the China Investment Corp. have been buying gold as well, O'Byrne notes.

O'Byrne writes: "It is likely that in total and between the three financial institutions, China may in fact be holding between 3,000 tonnes and 6,000 tonnes of gold" and thus be much closer to the United States in gold reserves than is generally understood. O'Byrne's analysis is headlined "China's Total Gold Holdings Much Higher -- Owns Gold In SAFE and CIC" and it's posted at GoldCore's Internet site here:

http://www.goldcore.com/us/gold-blog/chinas-total-gold-holdings-much-hig...

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.



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Speculators smash gold as dollar squeeze tightens

Posted: 20 Jul 2015 11:25 AM PDT

News that China's gold reserves are far lower than assumed has rattled investors, but Beijing may not have told the full story






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Speculators smash gold as dollar squeeze tightens

Posted: 20 Jul 2015 11:25 AM PDT

News that China's gold reserves are far lower than assumed has rattled investors, but Beijing may not have told the full story






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Who Are The Suicidal Shock Troops Of ISIS?

Posted: 20 Jul 2015 11:00 AM PDT

 Islamic State shock troops are rumored to be an elite and threatening new contingent of the terrorist organization. The Financial Armageddon Economic Collapse Blog tracks trends and forecasts , futurists , visionaries , free investigative journalists , researchers , Whistelblowers ,...

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Protected: Gold & Silver Stocks – Watchlist

Posted: 20 Jul 2015 10:58 AM PDT

There is no excerpt because this is a protected post.

US Economy Collapse 2015! Why An Economic Crash Is Coming!

Posted: 20 Jul 2015 10:47 AM PDT

To make the long story short, they are planning on shutting down this fraudulent monetary system and implement an even more fraudulent digital monetary system. Screw the banksters, we need a gold revolution. Stop using paper money, and stop over spending. The Financial Armageddon Economic...

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Gold Price Just a Little Bit More

Posted: 20 Jul 2015 10:24 AM PDT

Back in May, I sent followers of this public blog a Gold Cycle Update, outlining how gold had a 75% chance of failing to rally, resulting in an unexpected downturn. And then 3 weeks later, I sent a follow up article (Approach An Endpoint), where I outlined how gold was heading for a major Investor Cycle failure below $1,136. As was predicted, the Gold sector was hammered this past week, with new lows being achieved in every nook and cranny of the precious metals complex. Silver and platinum crossed that threshold weeks ago, but for the Miners and for Gold itself, Friday's high volume decline pushed them to new, multi-year lows. The Miners are especially concerning. Gold's decline has been tame by normal standards, but the Miners are back at the depths of the 2008 plunge, having completely erased the gains of the last Cyclical bull market.

Gold Investors Opportunity to Potentially Double Their Money

Posted: 20 Jul 2015 10:12 AM PDT

Rarely does childish selling of the Street and massive forced selling in China give Gold investors an opportunity to potentially double their money. That is what it may be happening at this very time in Gold and Silver markets. Now may be time to sell all exposure to the Lofty Lunacy, those internet / technology / growth / biotechnology fantasy stocks, your first born male child, your home, your dog, and whatever to add Gold and Silver to your portfolio. Last time the Street was as bearish on $Gold was 2007 when the price closed out the year at $830. $Gold went on to more than double.

Let's Talk About Gold

Posted: 20 Jul 2015 10:03 AM PDT

For what seems like forever we have been mechanical in managing the precious metals because they have been bearish; period. This has been based on short and long-term technical indications and incomplete macro fundamentals. Gary the robot has had no difficulty whatsoever holding this stance despite Gary the human's unwavering view that the value of gold is in its insurance and long-term retained value qualities.

Are Gold Investors Finally Capitulating?

Posted: 20 Jul 2015 09:59 AM PDT

Sprott Asset Management’s Rick Rule is one of the smartest guys in the resource investing world — and one of the most reasonable — which has made his interviews of the past few years a little disconcerting. Along with the obligatory positive thoughts on the long-term value of gold and silver and the resulting bright future for the best precious metals miners, he always points out that the sector hasn’t yet endured a capitulation, where everyone just gives up and sells at any price, tanking prices and setting the stage for the next bull market.

Knowing that this kind of existential crisis is still out there has taken the fun out of buying ever-cheaper mining stocks, which of course has been Rule’s point. Just because something is cheap doesn’t mean it can’t get a lot cheaper before its bear market is done.

Some representative quotes from late in 2014:

Complete Capitulation Hasn't Arrived: Rick Rule

Henry Bonner of Sprott's Thoughts spoke to Rick Rule, chairman of Sprott US Holdings, to find out whether gold stocks' recent problems are the result of capitulation "or just a particularly nasty sell-off."

As quoted in the market news:

In a complete capitulation, stocks melt down dramatically and some stocks just go 'no bid.' That hasn't happened yet, which means that we may be witnessing a very nasty sell-off, but not complete capitulation.

'For those of you fond of surf,' Rick explained at our San Diego office, 'capitulation is sort of like getting caught under a particularly big wave. You get pummeled and tumbled around under water. Capitulation in 2000 only lasted for about two weeks. Just like when you're stuck underwater and struggling to come back up, a short amount of time can seem like an eternity.'

The most important thing to do now? Prepare yourself psychologically.

'Abandon your 'hope stocks' – the ones where there is no catalyst, asset, or enough cash to do anything important. Get rid of the stocks you own that have no reason to go up, and get into ones that do,' Rick advises. In a complete sell-off, you may find that just a few investors will make the difference as to whether a particular stock survives, which means you must be willing to be one of those investors if the market gets much worse.

Which brings us to the last few days’ crash in gold and silver prices. Both metals are now below the production cost of most miners, whose shares are cratering on the prospect of some truly horrendous operating results in the coming year. Which sounds a lot like what Rule is describing.

One vote in favor of a near-term bottom (followed by a nice run to record prices) comes from Ned Schmidt, publisher of the Value View Gold newsletter, who in a report titled: $GOLD: Prelude to a Double notes that based on historical measures of investor sentiment and equity prices to gold, we’re just about there: “Last time the Street was as bearish on $Gold was 2007 when the price closed out the year at $830. $Gold went on to more than double.”

Jim’s Mailbox

Posted: 20 Jul 2015 09:42 AM PDT

Jim, The Gold and Silver smack down continues. Can you do a commentary on how the metals can go up when all that it takes is someone or some country to dump paper? I get the fundamentals but there seems to be no way to counter the crap taking place, so why even bother to... Read more »

The post Jim’s Mailbox appeared first on Jim Sinclair's Mineset.

Gold paper dump signifies sinking world economy, Embry tells KWN

Posted: 20 Jul 2015 09:32 AM PDT

12:30p ET Monday, July 20, 2015

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

The more that gold is clobbered by the sudden dumping of futures contracts, Sprott Asset Management's John Embry tells King World News, the worse real conditions in the world economy must be. An excerpt from Embry's interview is posted at the KWN blog here:

http://kingworldnews.com/the-orchestrated-gold-smash-and-a-world-on-the-...

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.



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Support GATA by purchasing recordings of the proceedings of the 2014 New Orleans Investment Conference:

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Markets Big Deflationary Downwave Quick Reference Guide...

Posted: 20 Jul 2015 08:50 AM PDT

We are believed to be on the verge of another deflationary downwave, similar to or more severe than the one which drove the dollar spike - and commodity slump - between July of last year and March, and caused by an intensification of the debt crisis, with increasing capital flight out of Europe and into dollar assets as the EU crumbles. More QE will not save the situation, as it is already discredited and will have no more effect than trying to inflate a tire or rubber boat that has a big hole in it. It is understood that in this modern age many readers have a very limited attention span, due to time constraints and the tendency to multi-task. For this reason this update is being kept short and to the point. It is intended to make plain in the clearest possible manner the scenario that is expected to unfold in the coming months. So let's get to it.

China’s Total Gold Holdings Much Higher – Owns Gold In SAFE and CIC

Posted: 20 Jul 2015 08:42 AM PDT

- China revises up its stated gold reserves in bid for IMF membership and reserve currency status – China announces a 604 tonne increase in gold reserves – First public disclosure re reserves in since 2009 - China officially owns around 1,660 tonnes of gold reserves –  true total figure is likely much larger - Playing long game – protecting USD reserves and positioning RMB as global reserve currency - China true gold holdings much higher as also owns gold in SAFE and CIC

Are the Production or Consumption Drivers of the Gold Price?

Posted: 20 Jul 2015 08:06 AM PDT

There are many opinions about what factors drive the price of gold. Among the candidates you will find: inflation rates, U.S. dollar exchange rate, real interest rate, geopolitics, oil prices, market volatility and crises, mine production, jewelry demand, speculation, technological demand, central banks’ actions, manipulation, and investment demand. We will deal with them in this and the following editions of the gold Market Overview. We will begin by rejecting production and consumption. It does mean that they do not affect the gold price; however we are interested in factors which drive the gold price.

Martin Armstrong: Why The Next Major Economic Collapse Is Rapidly Approaching 2015-2016

Posted: 20 Jul 2015 07:57 AM PDT

One of the item's on Bilderberg agenda is the elite's ongoing war on cash, and joining the show to talk about this is economic forecaster Martin Armstrong. The Financial Armageddon Economic Collapse Blog tracks trends and forecasts , futurists , visionaries , free investigative...

[[ This is a content summary only. Visit http://www.newsbooze.com or http://www.figanews.com for full links, other content, and more! ]]

We Need a Crash to Sort the Wheat From the Chaff

Posted: 20 Jul 2015 07:46 AM PDT

This post We Need a Crash to Sort the Wheat From the Chaff appeared first on Daily Reckoning.

Once the phantom collateral vanishes, there’s no foundation to support additional debt and leverage.

When a speculator bought a new particle-board-and-paint McMansion in the middle of nowhere in 2007 with nothing down and a $500,000 mortgage, the lender and the buyer both considered the house as $500,000 of collateral.

The lender counted the house as a $500,000 asset, and the speculator considered it his lottery ticket in the housing bubble sweepstakes: when (not if) the house leaped to $600,000, the speculator could sell, pay the commission and closing costs and skim the balance as low-risk profit.

But was the house really worth $500,000? That’s the trouble with assets bubbles inflated by central-bank/central-state intervention: when inefficient companies and inflated assets are never allowed to fall/fail, it’s impossible to tell the difference between real collateral and phantom collateral.

The implosion of the housing bubble led to an initial spike of price discovery. The speculator jingle-mailed the ownership of the poorly constructed McMansion to the lender, who ended up selling the home to another speculator who reckoned a 50% discount made the house cheap for $250,000.

But what was the enterprise value of the property, that is, how much revenue, cash flow and net income could the property generate in the open market as a rental? Comparables are worthless in terms of assessing collateral, because assets are mostly phantom collateral at bubble tops.

Let’s assume the enterprise value based on market rents was $150,000. The speculator who bought the house for $250,000 sold for a loss, and at the bottom of the cycle the house finally sold for its true value of $150,000.

Leveraged 20-to-1, the lender’s loss of $250,000 in collateral/capital unhinged $5 million of the lender’s portfolio as the capital supporting those loans vanished.

The first speculator who put nothing down suffered a loss of creditworthiness, and the second speculator lost $100,000 plus commissions when he dumped the property for a loss.

The only reliable metric of valuation is revenue, cash flow and net income, not at the top but in recession. One of the best ways to get burned/go broke is buying assets at the top of the speculative cycle and valuing them on projections of never-ending increases in revenues, cash flow and net income.

Then when recession crushes demand (as it inevitably does), revenues, cash flow and net income all plummet, and the buyer can no longer cover operating costs and interest payments.

In a highly leveraged financial system such as ours, when the phantom collateral vanishes, so does the illusion of solvency. Losses are forced down somebody’s throat– either the lender or the owner, or both.

When that happens, the ability of lenders and speculators to leverage debt on collateral is impaired: once the phantom collateral vanishes, there’s no foundation to support additional debt and leverage.

And once the ability to pile on more debt and leverage goes away, the entire debt-dependent financial system does what this building in China did: collapse.

Shanghai-bldg

Erect an enormous structure on a flimsy foundation supported by fragile hollow pilings and what do you get? Collapse.

The only way to sort the wheat (real collateral based on enterprise value) from the chaff (phantom collateral created by central banks’ speculative bubbles) is for a crash to force price discovery and the cramdown of losses.

Regards,

Charles Hugh Smith
for The Daily Reckoning

P.S. Ever since my first summer job decades ago, I've been chasing financial security. Not win-the-lottery, Bill Gates riches (although it would be nice!), but simply a feeling of financial control. I want my financial worries to if not disappear at least be manageable and comprehensible.

And like most of you, the way I've moved toward my goal has always hinged not just on having a job but a career.

You don't have to be a financial blogger to know that "having a job" and "having a career" do not mean the same thing today as they did when I first started swinging a hammer for a paycheck.

Even the basic concept "getting a job" has changed so radically that jobs–getting and keeping them, and the perceived lack of them–is the number one financial topic among friends, family and for that matter, complete strangers.

So I sat down and wrote this book: Get a Job, Build a Real Career and Defy a Bewildering Economy.

It details everything I've verified about employment and the economy, and lays out an action plan to get you employed.

I am proud of this book. It is the culmination of both my practical work experiences and my financial analysis, and it is a useful, practical, and clarifying read.

The post We Need a Crash to Sort the Wheat From the Chaff appeared first on Daily Reckoning.

Why Gold is on the Cusp of a New Bull Market

Posted: 20 Jul 2015 07:30 AM PDT

This post Why Gold is on the Cusp of a New Bull Market appeared first on Daily Reckoning.

MELBOURNE — Crack!!

That was the sound of the gold price breaking down through support in Friday's US trading session.

US gold equities took a beating. The HUI gold bugs index, which tracks the large global gold miners, fell over 5%. High debt levels accumulated during the boom are now weighing on stocks as the US dollar gold price falls towards the cost of production.

Now every man and his bear will be calling for gold to hit US$1,000 an ounce. And it could well get there. Technically, that is where the next major 'support' level sits, and traders looking to make money on the downside will do their best to get it there.

So what was behind the crack lower?

Well, ongoing speculation of an imminent rate rise in the US didn't help gold's cause. And an announcement by China that it has increased its gold reserves by much less than expected weighed on sentiment too.

As MarketWatch.com reports:

'China released data on its gold holdings for the first time in about six years, but investors say the guessing game about the country's actual inventory continues.

'The People's Bank of China on Friday published figures on its gold reserves for the first time since 2009. Its official gold reserves stood at 53.3 million ounces, or 1,658 metric tons, in June.

'The last time China reported official figures was in April 2009. Back then the figure stood at 1,054 metric tons, according to Ross Norman, chief executive officer at Sharps Pixley.

'The latest total is about half what the market thought it was.'

These are not really major issues. But they were enough to see gold lose support, which brought about more selling.

On the topic of China's gold reserves, the 'lower than expected' number didn't really surprise seasoned observers, like our man Jim Rickards, editor of Strategic Intelligence.

Back in May this year, Jim penned an essay that discussed the very topic of China and its gold reserves. He said that China wants to join 'the club' and to do so it must play by the rules.

'The rules of the game say you need a lot of gold to play, but you don't recognize the gold or discuss it publicly. Above all, you do not treat gold as money, even though gold has always been money.

'The members of the club keep their gold handy just in case, but otherwise, they publicly disparage it and pretend it has no role in the international monetary system. China will be expected to do the same. It's important to note that China will not act in the best interests of gold investors; it will act in the best interests of China…

'Meanwhile, China will probably announce its increased gold holdings later this year. But don't expect fireworks. China has three accounts where they keep gold — the People's Bank of China, PBOC; the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, SAFE; and the China Investment Corp., CIC.

'China can move enough gold to PBOC when they are ready and report that to the IMF for purposes of allowing the yuan in the SDR. Meanwhile, they can still hide gold in SAFE and CIC until they need it in the future.'

Jim didn't expect fireworks with this announcement and he was right. Jim is way out in front of most gold analysts. His intelligence sources are second to none.

It's ironic that China's underwhelming gold announcement may be the catalyst to send gold to its capitulation low. But the market works in mysterious ways.

I say capitulation low because that is what it's shaping up to be. Let me tell you why. In the future markets, 'managed money' (basically the hedge funds) are now short a record amount of gold. Being 'short' means they are betting on a price fall.

You can see this in the chart below:

DR20150720-01

This is the largest short position by this group of traders in the report's history. And chances are it's going to get more extreme as downward momentum gathers pace.

That means you could see more downside in the US dollar gold price. But such a drop just adds fuel to the fire of an eventual rebound. Consider the following commentary from trading legend Martin Armstrong:

'At the top, the majority is long and they become the fuel to make any market crash and burn.

'At the bottom, the opposite unfolds for everyone will be short. They will pile on looking for $600 gold and will count their profits upon entering the trade. They become the fuel to send the market higher for it always begins with a short-cover rally; people continually try to sell each rally, looking for that new low, just as the people at the top remain convinced that a decline would follow with new highs.'

So as this US dollar gold bear market reaches its crescendo, and as the mainstream media puts the boot in about gold's prospects, keep in mind we're close to the bottom with an all-time record amount of punters betting on more falls.

Also keep in mind that I'm strictly talking about the US dollar price of gold here. As I've pointed out on a number of occasions, the gold price denominated in Aussie dollars is in an emerging bull market. Currently trading around A$1,535 an ounce, gold is up nearly 20% from its 2013 lows.

That's thanks to a falling Aussie dollar, and the fact that it's falling faster against the US dollar than what gold is.

It's true that you want to see gold rising in US dollar terms before getting too excited about gold's longer term prospects, but as I showed you we're not too far away from that point.

So don't ignore the gold market. We're nearing the point of maximum pessimism. History tells you that is always a good time to get involved.

Regards,

Greg Canavan
for The Daily Reckoning, Australia

P.S. Be sure to sign up for The Daily Reckoning — a free and entertaining look at the world of finance and politics. The articles you find here on our website are only a snippet of what you receive in The Daily Reckoning email edition. Click here now to sign up for FREE to see what you're missing.

The post Why Gold is on the Cusp of a New Bull Market appeared first on Daily Reckoning.

Introducing: The United States of Europe

Posted: 20 Jul 2015 07:14 AM PDT

This post Introducing: The United States of Europe appeared first on Daily Reckoning.

The President of France has come up with a very creative way of solving the European debt crisis.  On Sunday, a piece authored by French President Francois Hollande suggested that the ultimate solution to the problems currently plaguing Europe would be for every member of the eurozone to transfer all of their sovereignty to a newly created federal government.  In other words, it would essentially be a "United States of Europe".

This federal government would have a prime minister, a parliament, a federal budget and a federal treasury.  Presumably, the current national governments in Europe would continue to function much like state governments in the U.S. do.  In the end, there may be some benefits to such a union – particularly for the weaker members of the eurozone.  But at what cost would those benefits come?

When I first learned that French President Francois Hollande had proposed that the members of the eurozone should create their own version of a federal government, I was quite stunned.  But I shouldn't have been surprised.  For the global elite, the answer to just about any problem is more centralization.  The following comes from a Bloomberg article that was posted on Sunday…

French President Francois Hollande said that the 19 countries using the euro need their own government complete with a budget and parliament to cooperate better and overcome the Greek crisis.

"Circumstances are leading us to accelerate," Hollande said in an opinion piece published by the Journal du Dimanche on Sunday. "What threatens us is not too much Europe, but a lack of it."

So precisely what would "more Europe" look like?

Hollande envisions a central government that has both a parliament and a federal budget

"I have proposed taking up Jacques Delors' idea about euro government, with the addition of a specific budget and a parliament to ensure democratic control," Hollande said.

His remarks touched on what analysts have seen as a major flaw in the euro.

Under the 1992 Treaty of Maastricht, countries which share a common currency must obey rules on borrowing and deficit spending.

But the Greek crisis saw one of the 19 eurozone members notch up successive worsening deficits and amass a mountain of debt. The problems were only addressed by bailouts from the European institutions and the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

Critics say the problem stems from a lack of centralised control over national fiscal policies, which today are jealously guarded areas of sovereignty.

In addition, this eurozone government would have its own prime minister.  In essence, he would be the European version of the president of the United States.  The following comes from the Independent

There would be a eurozone government with its own prime minister, the officials said. This government would have its own budget – separate from the EU budget – to aid and invest in more fragile countries, It would try to harmonise corporation and pay-roll taxes to ensure fair competition in the eurozone.

Of course Hollande is not the only one calling for more centralization.  Last month, European Central Bank President Mario Draghi, European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker and Eurogroup President Jeroen Dijsselbloem proposed a plan that would create a shared European treasury

Draghi called for the creation of a shared treasury within 10 years in a joint proposal with politicians including European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker and Eurogroup President Jeroen Dijsselbloem last month.

I don't anticipate that we will see any of these things implemented immediately.

However, what is important is the fact that this is where the European elite plan to take Europe.  And when the next great European financial crisis erupts, these proposals will be offered as the "solutions" necessary to end the crisis.

During times of emergency, the elite are often able to push things through that they would never be able to accomplish under normal circumstances.  At the moment, it would be extremely difficult to get everyone to agree to a full-blown "United States of Europe".  But if things were to start spinning wildly out of control and people were suddenly desperately clamoring for solutions, the environment would be quite different.

What that time arrives, the key will be to get Germany and France to agree on what a "United States of Europe" should look like.  If Germany and France can agree, it is inevitable that most of the other members of the eurozone would ultimately fall in line.

One potential hurdle for the creation of this new government would be the euro.  The current treaty agreements concerning the euro are quite complicated and quite restrictive.  If Germany and France decided that they did want to create a "United States of Europe", they might have to create an entirely new currency in order to accomplish that.

I know that sounds kind of crazy right now, but at one time the concept of "the euro" sounded really crazy too.

For the moment, the debt crisis in Europe just continues to get even worse.  Greece, Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Spain, Belgium and France are all drowning in debt.  Whether or not we see a "Grexit" in the short-term, I fully expect that European bond yields will continue to rise and European stocks will take quite a tumble in the months ahead.

I believe that we are right on the verge of a very significant European financial crisis.  In particular, keep on eye on the big banks.  Just like in the United States, the "too big to fail" banks in Europe are massively overleveraged and are tremendously exposed to derivatives.

In fact, the bank with the most exposure to derivatives on the entire planet is Deutsche Bank.  It has been reported that Deutsche Bank has a whopping 75 trillion dollarsworth of exposure to derivatives, their co-CEOs were recently forced to resign, and there are all sorts of rumblings about troubles going on behind the scenes at the bank.

What do you think would happen if the biggest and most important bank in Germany suddenly became the next Lehman Brothers?

That is something to think about.

Meanwhile, the euro continues to fall.  For a long time, I have been repeating my prediction that the euro would fall to parity with the U.S. dollar.

One year ago, the EUR/USD was sitting at 1.35.

Today, it has come all the way down to 1.08.

There will be more ups and downs, but we are almost there.

A time of great chaos is coming to Europe, and the eurozone will be deeply shaken.

But whether or not there is a break up of the eurozone in the short-term, in the long-term the goal of the European elite is even more integration and even more centralization.

So even though there will be significant bumps in the road, I fully expect to see the "United States of Europe" that French President Francois Hollande has proposed.

Do you agree?

What do you think the future holds for Europe?

Please feel free to join the discussion by posting a comment below…

Regards,

Michael Snyder
for The Daily Reckoning

Editorial Note: This article was originally posted at Michael Snyder’s site, The Economic Collapse Blog.

The post Introducing: The United States of Europe appeared first on Daily Reckoning.

Gold Gets Ambushed in Asia

Posted: 20 Jul 2015 06:59 AM PDT

This post Gold Gets Ambushed in Asia appeared first on Daily Reckoning.

Today's Pfennig for your thoughts…

Good day, and a marvelous Monday to you!

I have BIG news regarding gold this morning, and it’s not good news either…

Front and center this morning, things have gotten very ugly with gold in the Asian session folks. Here’s the skinny as far as I know. In Shanghai and the Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE) close to 5 tonnes of gold was sold on the SGE in a two minute window in a market where the normal amount of gold traded on a daily basis is 25 Tonnes.

The August 15 Comex gold contract also saw 7,600 contracts traded in the same two-minute window, the paper trades led off and I would think caused the HUGE sell off in the SGE.

Gold had already fallen 1% in Friday’s trading, as the markets got spooked when China supposedly revealed their gold holdings and they weren’t what most gold observers thought they would be.

I think this has all gotten out of control very quickly and for no good reason other than investors, hedge funds, whatever, that don’t pay attention to the details.

Yes, China reported a figure on gold that was less than what was expected. But, according to gold researcher, Koos Jansen at bullionstar.com, saying that, “I think it’s possible the PBOC (Peoples Bank of China) hasn’t been completely honest by stating that their gold reserves have grown by only 604 Tonnes since 2009.”

Now if anyone knows and understands what the Chinese are doing with gold, it’s Koos Jansen. And Koos Jansen believes that…

China’s import data acknowledges imports of both monetary and non-monetary gold but customs reports quantify only the non-monetary gold, never the monetary gold, thereby signifying that the People’s Bank of China does not want is gold purchases made public.

That is, official gold purchases in China, like official gold swaps and leases in the West, are highly sensitive and top-secret.

And therein lies the big difference, as we all know the huge amounts of gold China imports and produces every year. Who are they trying to kid with this 604 tonnes of gold increase since 2009?

Well, they fooled the hedge funds, and large players that trade gold because they panicked.

So, this morning, gold has fallen to a level it hasn’t seen in 5 years, and has come back a bit, as the “gone too far, too fast” trading came into play. But the shiny metal is sitting with a $20 loss right now. And Silver, Platinum and Palladium are faring much better percentage wise. So, it’s an ambush.

There were reports that maybe the gold sale on the SGE was “margin influenced,” which would mean that large investors use gold as collateral on stock trades, and as the Chinese stock market has dropped the margin calls have come in, and maybe the gold piece has to be sold on a margin call.

But that’s difficult to get my arms around, because it was such a large piece of gold at one time. But, hey! We are talking about large investors!

Well, there’s other things going on today besides the gold price drop and China’s announcement. So, let’s talk about them.

The best performing currency overnight is the New Zealand dollar/kiwi. But folks, I don’t expect this to be a lasting thing.

First of all, kiwi moved strongly higher on the words of PM Key, who said that, “kiwi has fallen faster than expected and that the economy is still growing at a good pace.”  That caused a short squeeze in kiwi overnight, and got kiwi the best performer award.

But I just don’t see this lasting too long, folks, because on Wednesday, the first day of my summer vacation, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) will meet, and 18 of 19 economists surveyed said they expect the RBNZ to cut their Official Cash Rate (OCR) 25 Basis Points, with the one exception expecting the RBNZ to cut 50 Basis Points! OUCH!

So, if you’re like me, you are scratching your head right now and saying, “What, what?, The Prime Minister, just said that the economy was still growing, why would that lead the RBNZ to cut rates?” I hear you brother, and sister. And I shake my head in disbelief, and disgust.

Kiwi is an outlier for the currencies this morning, as the dollar has the conn on must currencies right now. The Aussie dollar (A$) hasn’t seen enough “pull” from kiwi to help it much, but at least the A$ is flat on the day, and the euro is flat to up a small bit, Swedish krona is flat, and the Czech koruna is up a small bit.

Other than those fighting to keep their heads above water, the rest of the currencies are down vs. the dollar today.

I mentioned that the euro was flat to up a small bit, but that doesn’t really tell the tale, as the single unit really took one to the mid-section on Friday, and fell through the 1.09 figure and now trades with a 1.08 handle. UGH! Really. Is this necessary?

I was looking through files at home looking for something this past weekend, and came across the print of an article that was written in Sarasota Herald Tribune on 3/21/2004, and it was a long interview with yours truly. It was a very good article I must say so myself!

Here’s an excerpt from that article from 11 years ago:

Q: Right now there is a little dollar rally going on.

CB: Just like this last summer there was one too. We saw the euro move from 1.18 to 1.08. And everyone thought, oh, the weak trend in the dollar is over. It wasn’t over. It was just merely a correction that needed to be made and then we moved higher from there. That is the same thing that is going to happen right now in my opinion.

I read that part and thought to myself, “You sound like a broken record all the time Chuck. Have you ever considered that maybe, just maybe the weak dollar trend is over?”

That’s something that you can’t let happen, having self-doubts. But, when facts change, you need to change your stance, right? Well, that’s true. But I’m not ready to change my mind yet.

Now, if we get to October, and the IMF/renminbi decision, and things don’t go the way I believe they will go, then I’ll have to go back to the chalk board, and make a call. But not until then.

I really got a kick out of reading that article from 2004. They even had a picture of me to go along with the article titled: International Bond Trader Talks About Playing In Foreign Currencies.  Of course that was the writer’s choice of words “playing.” I would have said diversifying with foreign currencies.

OK. Back to the Future. 2015.

Well, the U.S. data cupboard on Friday sure had a full docket, but the main points were the housing starts and building permits which kicked some tail and took names later!

Again, as long as the Fed keeps talking about rate cuts coming, the housing sector data is going to look good, as the “get in before the rates go higher” campers take advantage of the rate environment.

The Stupid CPI was bang on expectations of a 0.3% increase vs. May, and a year on year increase of 1.8%… Still not 2%…  I want to send all those out there in writer land a picture that shows how 1.8% is not quite 2% yet.

The U. of Michigan consumer confidence index actually saw a drop from 96.1 to 93.3.

Hmmm, now that’s interesting, eh?

There are no data prints on the docket to print today, so, we have to look at the rest of the week, and quite frankly there’s not a lot that’s going to tell a story one way or the other this week.

I’m still reeling from the ambush of gold in Asia last night. I’m almost afraid to send the letter out today, given the panic that the news caused in Asia and Europe overnight. Oh well, here goes nothing!

That’s it for today. I’m going to venture away from the unusual stuff, and highlight my good friend, Dennis Miller and his new blog site.  Here’s the link. www.milleronthemoney.com.

Dennis is what MarketWatch calls a retirement guru. And he’s authored a book called Retirement Reboot.  If you’re retired, getting ready to retire, or just thinking about retiring, you should read what Dennis has to say.

His latest piece on the site is titled “I’m Going to Sting Like a Butterfly and Float Like a Bee.” Yes, that’s intended to be backwards from the great Muhammad Ali’s famous like.  Here’s a snippet:

The Fed wants us to believe the market has already priced in a rate increase – no worries! Yeah right! Retirees are risking trillions in high yield bonds and dividend paying stocks – they need income and have no place else to go.

“Massive overvaluation” is a bubble. When the massive overvaluation in fixed income and equity markets eventually rights itself – and it will – bubbles burst, people get stung financially, particularly retail investors.

Chuck again. Well, he’s landed on his feet! Dennis was part of the Casey Research Group that got cut after a recent buyout, so I’m glad to see that he’s continuing his work to help people with retirement on their minds!

That’s it for today. I hope you have a marvelous Monday!

Chuck Butler
for The Daily Reckoning

P.S. The Daily Pfennig is first published everyday, right here.

Editor's Note: Be sure to sign up for The Daily Reckoning — a free and entertaining look at the world of finance and politics. The articles you find here on our website are only a snippet of what you receive in The Daily Reckoning email edition. Click here now to sign up for FREE to see what you're missing.

The post Gold Gets Ambushed in Asia appeared first on Daily Reckoning.

Protected: Gold Stocks Oversold – Due for Bounce?

Posted: 20 Jul 2015 06:52 AM PDT

There is no excerpt because this is a protected post.

Bron Suchecki: Dissection of a gold price smash

Posted: 20 Jul 2015 05:01 AM PDT

8a ET Monday, July 20, 2015

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Perth Mint research director Bron Suchecki analyzes the overnight smash in the gold price and determines that it started on the New York Commodities Exchange. Suchecki's analysis is headline "Dissection of a Gold Price Smash" and it's posted at the Perth Mint's Internet site here:

http://research.perthmint.com.au/2015/07/20/dissection-of-a-gold-price-s...

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org



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