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- Win a Free Promotional Silver Round Compliments of DNA Precious Metals!
- Gold to trade in $1275 1488 range, negative ETF flows worrying: Saxo Bank
- Market Rigging Whistleblower Ted Butler Interviewed by Sprott Money News
- Australian bankers frosted by Fed, want their own dollar lower
- Three King World News Blogs
- India to resume gold imports but rules mean no rush
- Market rigging whistleblower Ted Butler interviewed by Sprott Money News
- Gold And Silver – Fed Taper? Never! Never, Never, Ever.
- Monex Precious Metals Review: Gold support at $1308,Silver $21.43
- Gold was not selected arbitrarily by governments to be the monetary standard
- Robert Prasch: The “Lessons” that Wall Street, Treasury, and the White House Need You to Believe About the Lehman Collapse
- How to Put a Stop to Sweatshop Abuse
- Gold has not reached the bottom of its correction yet says Jim Rogers
- Sept 21, 1933 : Britain goes off the Gold Standard
- Metals & Markets With Turd Ferguson: Fed Monkeys Lose Control!
- The Great Fed Robbery (Smoking Gun Evidence That a Wall St Bank Front Ran The Fed’s No-Taper on Insider Info?)
- Continental Gold CEO Ari Sussman’s Secret Sauce
- Denver Gold Forum hoping for record as gold appeals to more value investors
- India to resume gold imports but rules mean no rush
- 1859 : Pikes peak gold Rush
- Gold Fields says it acted lawfully in SA ownership deal
- Gold's Reaction To Fed Is A Bearish Signal, Libya Weighs On Oil, Copper At Top Of Range
- Gold, silver prices lose ground after post-Fed surge
- Commodity ETF Flows: GDX Rakes In $1.03 Billion, Rallies 8.25%
- Australian bankers frosted by Fed, want their own dollar lower
- Dan Norcini About Today’s Gold & Silver Price Drop
- Ted Butler: JP Morgan Holds 2 Corners In The Gold And Silver Market
- Reasons for short term volatiltiy in Gold and Silver
- Recent Rally in Gold – A Sign of Strength?
- Week’s Rise Cut to 1.8% for Gold & Silver as Asian Demand Falls, US Default Risk Rises
- Cartel Capping, Then Crapping On Precious Metals This Week
- Gold and the Fed – What If…
- Semafo gets 20% 'bump' to Mana gold grades in Burkina
- "Dr. Doom" Marc Faber: "Total collapse" is now guaranteed
- "A horrifying choice": Why the next Fed chairman could be far, far worse than Ben Bernanke
- Here's where the next monster gold discovery could be found
- Alasdair Macleod: No Tapering- US in a Massive Debt Trap Heading Towards Hyperinflation!
- Submission: The Fed’s Great Adventure in Inflation
- Small (Capex) Is Beautiful in Silver and Gold, Says Salman’s Ash Guglani
- Central Rand Gold quadruples on loan funding
- Recent Rally in Gold - A Sign of Strength?
- Terrible Technicals
- Brain Damage – And, Uh, QE Is Working (I’ll Explain)
- Too Big To Fail Is Now Bigger Than Ever Before
- Not everything is rosy with Gold coins market: GoldCoin.net
- The Fed's Incredibly Reckless E-Money Printing
- The Smell of Collapse is in the Air
- Gold & Silver Waterfall Smash in Progress As Fed’s Bullard Threatens Oct Taper
- Friday Humor: Why a QE Taper is Not Possible
- MUST WATCH: Gold Backwardation-The Meltdown of All Meltdowns-Karen Hudes
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Gold to trade in $1275 1488 range, negative ETF flows worrying: Saxo Bank Posted: 21 Sep 2013 05:52 AM PDT Negative investment flows out of Exchange Traded Products, both before and more importantly after the Fed announcement, represent a somewhat worrying sign, especially for those looking for the rally to continue. |
Market Rigging Whistleblower Ted Butler Interviewed by Sprott Money News Posted: 21 Sep 2013 04:58 AM PDT "It's a certainty that the miners won't say a word in protest." ¤ Yesterday In Gold & SilverAs I mentioned in The Wrap in Friday's column, the price action and volume in Far East trading on their Friday was dead right up until the London open. That's when things changed and, in hindsight, for the worst. The high-frequency traders spun prices lower on several occasions during the Europe and U.S. trading day, and bought up all the longs that the tech funds and small traders were prepared to puke up as sell stops were hit. It was the same old, same old, and I'll have more on this later. Anyway, by the time gold was done for the day, it closed at $1,325.60 spot, down $39.50 from Thursday's close. Not surprisingly, net volume was immense at around 196,000 contracts. But silver really got smashed, as the price got hammered for about 3% by the HFT boys in the space of about thirty minutes during mid-morning trading in New York. The smallish rally from there ran into more high-frequency traders shortly after, and they kept up the price pressure until well after the 1:30 p.m. EDT Comex close. Silver finished the Friday session at $21.80 spot, which was down $1.285 on the day. Although silver didn't close precisely on its low tick, it came close. Net volume was a monstrous 62,500 contracts. It was more or less the same story in platinum and palladium as well, as their respective charts are almost identical to gold's. For the day, the high-frequency traders closed gold down 2.89%, silver down 5.57%, platinum down 2.06%, and palladium 1.91%. Not even rhodium was spared, as it was bid down 2.50%. Of course the dollar index did zip. It closed late Thursday afternoon in New York at 80.34, and then traded almost ruler flat until half-past lunchtime in London. At that point it chopped a few basis points higher and closed on Friday afternoon at 80.44, up a whole ten basis points on the day. The gold stocks got crushed, and barely finished off their lows. The HUI closed down 6.28%, andand has now given back all of its gains from Wednesday. The silver equities only did marginally better, as Nick Laird's Intraday Silver Sentiment Index closed down 5.04%. The ISSI has given back a large chunk of its Wednesday gains as well. The CME's Daily Delivery Report showed that 1 gold and ten silver contracts were posted for delivery on Tuesday within the Comex-approved depositories. The link to yesterday's Issuers and Stoppers Report is here. Hard on the heels of the Thursday deposit into GLD, was an even larger withdrawal by an authorized participant on Friday, as 57,932 troy ounces were removed. And as of 10:32 p.m. EDT yesterday evening, there were no reported changes in SLV. For the third day in a row, there was no sales report from the U.S. Mint. Month-to-date the mint has sold 9,000 ounces of gold eagles; 5,500 one-ounce 24K gold buffaloes and 1,850,000 silver eagles. Based on these figures, the silver/gold sales ratio works out to 127 to 1. Once again there was almost no activity at the Comex-approved depositories in either gold or silver on Thursday. In gold, they reported receiving 6,799 troy ounces, and didn't ship any out. In silver, they didn't report receiving any either, but they did ship 41,506 troy ounces of the stuff out the door to parts unknown. As expected, the Commitment of Traders Report showed improvements in the Commercial net short positions of both silver and gold, although I must admit that I was expecting a bigger improvement in silver than what was shown. However, it is what it is. In silver, the Commercial net short position declined by only 6.2 million ounces, and is now down to 111.3 million ounces. Ted Butler says that JPMorgan's short-side corner is a hair under 15% of the entire Comex futures market in silver on a net basis; which means that all the market-neutral spread trades have been subtracted from the total open interest; and in troy ounces, JPMorgan is short about 105 million ounces of the stuff. On its own, this amount represents almost 100% of the entire Commercial net short position in that metal. That's outrageous! In gold, the improvement in the Commercial net short position, was 1.49 million ounces, which is a pretty big number, and substantially larger than the improvement we saw the week prior. The Commercial net short position in gold is now down to 6.53 million ounces. Ted says that JPMorgan Chase only added about 2,000 contracts to their long position, and their long-side corner in the gold market is a bit under 19% of the entire Comex futures market on a net basis. In troy ounces, JPMorgan's long-side corner in gold works out to around 6 million troy ounces. The other stand-out feature of this COT Report in gold was the fact that the lion's share of the improvement in the Commercial net short position were Ted Butler's raptors [some of the 53 small traders in the Commercial category other than the Big 8] buying every long contract that the traders in the Non-Commercial and Nonreportable category were dumping, or buying the long side of every contract that these same traders were going short. And while on the subject of going short, the raptors tricked the Non-Commercial and Nonreportable [small] traders into piling in on the short side during the reporting week, and according to yesterday's COT Report, they added 12,400 contracts to their short positions, or 1.24 million ounces. [Then they all got blown out of these same short positions during Wednesday's big rally, as the raptors rang the cash register again.] I know that Ted will have much more about this in his weekly report to his paying subscribers later today, andand I'm looking forward to his comments. Needless to say, the dramatic price action over the last three trading days has changed things a lot, andand we won't know by how much, or in which direction, until next Friday's COT Report. All should be know to us by then, unless we have a big rally on either Monday or Tuesday that will mask whatever changes there were. As I said in this space last week, it seems like I/we are always waiting for next week's report. Since yesterday was the 20th of the month, and it fell on a weekday, The Central Bank of the Russian Federation updated its website with its August data. It showed that they purchased 400,000 troy ounces of gold last month, and their total [official] holdings are now 32.6 million ounces, which is a hair over 1,000 tonnes. Below is Nick Laird's most excellent chart that has been updated to show the change. I took an axe to the list of stories I had for today's column, and I believe that I have them down to a manageable number. ¤ Critical ReadsStocks are about to plunge, Wells Fargo strategist warnsGina Martin Adams is sticking to her guns. The Wells Fargo strategist has been bearish on stocks all year, even as she watched the S&P 500 add 21 percent. And on Thursday's "Futures Now," Adams reiterated her call that the index would close out the year at 1,440. "Our target is based on fundamentals," Adams insisted. "We're basing our target on typical valuation measures, given the level of interest rates and also on earnings forecasts. And that's why our target is relatively low." In fact, "low" is somewhat of an understatement. Adams' target implies that the market will drop 16 percent in little more than three months, erasing everything that stocks gained after the year's first day of trading. This makes her one of the lone bears on the Street. I wonder if Gina has heard of the Plunge Protection Team, or its more formal title, The President's Working Group on Financial Markets? Just asking. This short 1:15 minute CNBC video clip, along with some text, was posted on their website early yesterday morning EDT...and I thank U.A.E. reader Laurent-Patrick Gally for today's first story. David Stockman Warns "'Calamity Janet' Yellen Has No Clue"In this 100-second clip, David Stockman explains succinctly to Bloomberg TV how America is "stumbling into the endgame." Having explained in the past, Bernanke's born-again jobs scam, Stockman is anxious as we transition from "Bubbles-Ben" to "Calamity Janet" because she has "no clue how to wean Wall Street from its pathetic addiction to easy money." Stockman does not mince words here...and what he has to say in this video clip is more than worth your while. It was posted on the Zero Hedge Internet site late yesterday afternoon...and I thank West Virginia reader Elliot Simon for sharing it with us. JPMorgan Guilty Admission a Win for SEC's Policy ShiftThe U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, in settling claims with JPMorgan Chase & Co. over its handling of a $6.2 billion trading loss, landed its biggest victory yet in fulfilling a pledge to force wrongdoers to admit guilt. As part of the $920 million agreement with regulators in the U.S. and U.K., New York-based JPMorgan admitted yesterday that it violated federal securities laws when it failed to catch traders hiding losses in 2012. “It’s no small thing to go from getting no admissions six months ago to this,” said James Cox, a law professor at Duke University School of Law in Durham, North Carolina. “It’s a useful shaming process. It has an impact on the behavior of other people.” JPMorgan Chase: When Trying to Follow Rules Isn't Enough As the Securities and Exchange Commission’s chief of enforcement from 2001 to 2005, the era of landmark fraud settlements with Enron, WorldCom and Tyco, Stephen M. Cutler earned a reputation as a tough and, at times, feared regulator. He was particularly dismayed by chief executives, chief financial officers, general counsels and compliance officials who, even if not directly implicated in wrongdoing, created a culture in which it was ignored, tolerated, or even worse, tacitly encouraged. In a speech in 2004 to the General Counsel Roundtable, he said: “You’ve got to talk the talk; and you’ve got to walk the walk. Both are critical to maintaining a good tone at the top.” And he called for more accountability: “Hold all of your managers accountable for setting the right tone. That means disciplining or even firing them when they have failed to create a culture of compliance. Human nature being what it is, there will be those who break the rules. But if managers don’t do enough to prevent those violations, or let them go unaddressed for too long, then they should be held responsible — even in the absence of direct involvement in those violations.” How times have changed. As general counsel of JPMorgan Chase & Company, Mr. Cutler is now on the receiving end of the lectures, which this week came from George S. Canellos, a successor to Mr. Cutler and currently the co-chief of enforcement at the S.E.C. Wow! You couldn't make this stuff up. This must read 2-page essay was posted on The New York Times website yesterday...and my thanks go out to Phil Barlett for bringing it to our attention. Republican Clash With Obama Adds Risk of ShutdownHouse Speaker John Boehner and Republicans leaders tried to craft a spending bill that would avoid a fiscal showdown on Oct. 1. With 10 days left before current funding runs out, it’s not at all clear their plan will work, and the risk of a government shutdown is intensifying. Republicans in the House yesterday voted to choke off funding for President Barack Obama's health-care law in the stopgap spending bill. Senate Democratic leaders said they won’t pass a bill that takes money away from the 2010 health-care law. This Bloomberg piece was posted on their website early yesterday morning MDT. The old headline to this story read "House Passes Spending Bill Seeking to Stop Health Law". This is the second offering of the day from Laurent-Patrick Gally. Venezuela's Maduro granted permission to fly over U.S. after scandalThe U.S. granted approval for a last-minute flight plan which allowed Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro to fly over Puerto Rico on his way to China. Venezuela’s FM earlier told media an aircraft carrying Maduro was denied a path over the commonwealth. Washington told Caracas Thursday night that permission was granted even though the request had not been properly submitted, Reuters cites State Department spokeswoman Marie Harf as saying. Maduro tweeted at around 10:30 pm local time (0300 GMT) Thursday that he had left Venezuela for Beijing. This Russia Today news item was posted on their website just before midnight on Thursday Moscow time, was just before 4:00 p.m. in New York. It's the first contribution of the day from Roy Stephens. Venezuela asks U.N. to take action against U.S. over visa disputeVenezuela has sent a letter to the U.N. chief asking him to take measures against the United States over the denial of visas for some members of its delegation who are scheduled to attend the UN General Assembly in New York. The letter sent by Venezuela’s ambassador to the UN, Samuel Moncada, requests that the Secretary General Ban Ki-moon take action in response to the apparent denial of visas, which President Maduro has said seems intended to “create logistical obstacles to impede” next week’s visit. Venezuela further requests that the UN “demand that the government of the US abide by its international obligations” as host of the 68th UN General Assembly. This is another news item from the Russia Today website. This one was posted minutes before midnight last night Moscow time, which was minutes before 4:00 p.m. EDT. It's also another offering from Roy Stephens. Bolivian president to sue U.S. government for crimes against humanityBolivian President Evo Morales will file a lawsuit against the US government for crimes against humanity. He has decried the US for its intimidation tactics and fear-mongering after the Venezuelan presidential jet was blocked from entering US airspace. “I would like to announce that we are preparing a lawsuit against Barack Obama to condemn him for crimes against humanity,” said President Morales at a press conference in the Bolivian city of Santa Cruz. He branded the US president as a “criminal” who violates international law. In solidarity with Venezuela, Bolivia will begin preparing a lawsuit against the US head of state to be taken to the international court. Furthermore, Morales has called an emergency meeting of the Community of Latin American and Caribbean States (CELAC) to discuss what has been condemned by Venezuela as “an act of intimidation by North American imperialism.” This is the third story from the Russia Today Internet site. This one was filed from Moscow in the wee hours of Friday morning Moscow time, which was Thursday evening in New York. It's also courtesy of Roy Stephens. Cyber Attack: Belgians Angered by British Spying The hacking attack by Britain's GCHQ intelligence service on Belgian telecoms provider Belgacom has angered politicians in the country. Belgium plays host to the EU's top institutions as well as NATO, and Prime Minister Elio di Rupo is considering diplomatic retaliation. Greek P.M. calls for calm after alleged Golden Dawn killingGreek Prime Minister Antonis Samaras appealed for calm following the fatal stabbing of a left-wing rapper by an alleged member of the neo-Nazi Golden Dawn group earlier this week. “This government is determined not to let the descendants of the Nazis |
Australian bankers frosted by Fed, want their own dollar lower Posted: 21 Sep 2013 04:58 AM PDT Reserve Bank of Australia board member John Edwards has expressed frustration that the shock U.S. Federal Reserve decision to continue injecting billions into the global financial markets sent the Australian dollar to a three-month high...and above US95¢. The higher dollar is likely to frustrate the new government and the Reserve Bank board, which wants a lower currency to make Australian manufacturers, tourism operators and other companies more competitive with their foreign counterparts. “I want to see a lower dollar and it’s going to take us longer to get there – so it’s not great,” said Dr Edwards, who was an economics adviser to former prime minister Paul Keating. Asked what level he would like to see for the dollar, he said: “I wouldn’t put a number on it. Lower is good.” At least they admit right up front that they want to debase their currency. This story was posted on the afr.com Internet site on their Friday, which was Thursday here in North America. I found it in a GATA release yesterday. |
Posted: 21 Sep 2013 04:58 AM PDT 1. Dr. Paul Craig Roberts: "Terrifying U.S. Collapse Ahead". 2. Egon von Greyerz: "Man Who Predicted No Fed Tapering Now Says to Expect Chaos". 3. GATA's Chris Powell: "This Week Was a Disaster and It Will Lead to More Tyranny". |
India to resume gold imports but rules mean no rush Posted: 21 Sep 2013 04:58 AM PDT India will start buying gold again after a two-month gap as the government and banks have agreed how new rules on imports should work, easing prices in the world's biggest bullion buyer and helping supplies just as seasonal demand kicks in. But monthly shipments by the world's top importer are unlikely to be even a quarter of May's record 162 tonnes to start with and annual imports will be sharply down, helping to cut a bulging current account deficit and support the rupee. India's gold shipments came to a virtual halt after the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) told importers on July 22 that a fifth of their purchases would have to be turned around for export and that 80 percent would be available for domestic use. "The issue stands resolved now and as a result imports will start immediately," said the source, who did not want to be named. |
Market rigging whistleblower Ted Butler interviewed by Sprott Money News Posted: 21 Sep 2013 04:58 AM PDT Silver market analyst, financial letter editor, and market rigging whistleblower Ted Butler was interviewed this week by Nathan McDonald of Sprott Money News, discussing manipulation of the gold and silver markets (especially by JPMorganChase & Co.) and the failure of the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission to act against it. The interview is posted in both text and audio at the Sprott Money Internet site. |
Gold And Silver – Fed Taper? Never! Never, Never, Ever. Posted: 21 Sep 2013 04:49 AM PDT The proverbial handwriting has been on the wall for quite some time. Lying Ben Bernocchio just sealed the fate of the already doomed fiat Federal Reserve Note, aka the "dollar," along with the financial well-being of most unsuspecting Americans who will be unprepared for what is going to happen, at some point and with certainty. Collapse. The Fed announcement not to taper was a "surprise" to all mainstream media talking heads[less], who must tow the Party line or join the growing millions of other Americans out of a job. Without the faux fiat injections into the stock market, it would collapse, as it inevitably will, anyway. Those in that market should be prepared for the worst for the worst will happen. If the Fed were to taper, it would immediately burst the largest financial bubble ever created by central bankers, all under the aegis of abetting Western governments. Rather than burst the bubble and be held accountable, the Fed will keep feeding the financial tapeworm until the host Western world is utterly consumed. How many companies are there actually showing earnings? It must be closer to none than to 100. Yet, the stock market made new all time highs this past week. With zero percent interest rates, all older savers dependent upon interest returns during their retirement years have none. They are, and have been getting financially screwed, while bankers have been handsomely rewarded with huge bonuses. No outrage, however. All pension funds are under the same duress. The ultimate victim[s] is all of America as Ben and the Boyz steal what remaining "wealth" is available through their fiat Ponzi scheme, in place ever since the Federal Reserve Act of 23 December 1913. We are all trapped in this ultimate Weimar-type bubble created by central bankers using exactly the same banking system in place under the Weimar Republic. Details are of no consequence because they have been known for decades and ignored all throughout. Who are some the beneficiaries of all this future trauma and trouble? Those who own and personally hold physical gold and silver. No paper promises, which are ultimately IOUs, and when push comes to shove, which it surely will, good luck trying to collect on them. If the M F Global theft does not resonate with any paper holders, then nothing will. Do not believe that the Fed will taper. In all likelihood, the Fed will increase, not taper. When you see that happen, there is no more cover for all the lies being sold in America. You have to know that when the ultimate central planner player, Larry Summers, opts out of the job of his life, it tells you that the replacement for Lying Ben is being set up to take the fall. All Western banks are insolvent, all Western governments are insolvent, and almost all of the Western population remains ignorant. The Nobel Peace Prize winner has been pushing hard for starting another war. Who stepped in to stop war in Syria, and most likely triggering a greater war conflagration? Putin, of so-called "Evil" Russia, [in the minds of too many Americans unable to think for themselves]. It is never about what the government-controlled media wants Americans to "think." Why does Obomba want war? To save a few hundred Syrians from chemical warfare, the same US renown for using Agent Orange in Viet Nam, among chemical use in other wars, as well? It is not about saving Syrians. It is about preventing Russia from building a natural gas pipeline through Syria. Once that happens, and it will, the United States becomes even more irrelevant on the world stage than it already is. With a natural gas pipeline, Russia controls the energy Europe needs to stay warm during the cold winters. Why do you think Britain all of a sudden backed off from backing Obomba from bombing Syria? The United States has slipped into third world conditions already, as the country continues to decline. But not to worry Americans, the debt ceiling will be raised once again as the added debt will eventually raze the country even more. The war-like US president was Put-in his place by the rest of the world, tired of this country starting wars in the Middle East, and tired of the US exporting its toxic Treasury Bonds to the rest of the world. No one else want to buy US bonds. Despite Lying Ben testify under oath in front of [a puppet] Congress that the Fed would not monetize the US debt, that is exactly what he has been doing. The Fed is the only buyer left willing to buy US-issued debt. The Ponzi bubble is bigger than most can imagine. What Western central planners have been doing is suppressing gold and silver in order to keep their sorry lives alive. In the process, the destruction of people's financial well- being is unabated. Look at Greece. Look at Cyprus, Ireland, Spain. India is now under the fiat-gun and suffering. All of these countries are but symptoms of unchecked, forced, government-issued fiat debt. If you want to know why the fundamentals and unprecedented demand for gold and silver has failed to follow the natural law of supply and demand, it is because both have been unnaturally treated by central bankers. The metals are anathema to the issuance of paper fiat, and competition must be eliminated, at all costs. The world of central bankers is bursting at the seams as more and more people are unwilling to bow to the pressures of oppressive governments. This is why the likes of Julian Assange, Edward Snowden and all other whistleblowers are being tracked down like animals, to keep the truth from the governed. From Leonard Cohen's Anthem, "There is a crack in everything. That's how the light gets in." The greatest antidote to government-issued fiat has always been gold, and silver to a lesser extent but becoming as important a financial safe harbor. Last week, we wrote about reliance on Fundamentals vs Charts, [http://bit.ly/1eQNE4P], and it was stated that all the very glowing fundamental news has not produced the positive results almost all in the PMs community have been anticipating. The Charts clearly told the opposite "story." [Computer issues precluded some from having last week's comments available, so use the link if you missed it.] The charts speak. [Central planners are too dumb to know charts shine a light on them]. Gold and silver may ultimately head higher, [and higher and higher], but for now, charts say not yet. Still NMT, [Needs More Time]. We will always advocate the continual buying and holding of the physical metal, [silver, too], for the above opinion should be akin to Paul Revere's ride through every Middlesex village and farm, alerting everyone that the British were coming, and the American Revolution got underway. "The Central Bankers are here!" Buy gold and silver! As long as the paper futures market remains "viable," at least until the COMEX acknowledges there is no more gold and silver available for delivery, as will be the case, we use them as a "looking-glass" for immediate price determination. The weekly trend is down. There remains bearish spacing and no indication of a change in this status. A 50% correction of the last swing low to swing high is 1297, and price has yet to close under that level. It is just a guide and not an absolute, and it tells us of relative strength or weakness should it hold or fail to hold. The chart comments are self-explanatory. Where it says, "Charts do not lie," you can see a small range bar, [lack of demand ending the rally], with a poor close, and it occurred at the late May, early June last swing high, a potential future resistance, as it turned out to be. A clinical read of the chart would say to be a seller. A PM mentality and awareness of the fiat failings makes it a harder choice. We are all subject to subjective beliefs which are sometimes at odds with the reality of what factual information a chart conveys. We were not sellers, but it goes to show how reliable this source is. As a then read, three bars ago, intra day activity signaled a buy, prior to the "No Taper" tale, and price shot up relentlessly for the balance of the day. Next day was a small range bar, not unlike the one at the end of August, that signaled a sell, and we opted to sell out longs for that reason. Luck often happens when one is prepared. Half the position was repurchased at 1352 on Friday, at what looked like a potential stopping area that was not, and price eventually sold lower. Unless the position is stopped out for a loss, we will look to add to it, if market activity so determines. The Wednesday high volume bar is more likely short-covering, as opposed to new demand. The weekly gap was erased on the gold chart, but it remains in play in silver. After the previous week's wide range sell off, last week's low was relatively minimal, and that could be an indication of buyers meeting the effort of sellers. Next week's activity will clarify the picture more. The larger box captures current support/resistance. Buyers have a slight edge over sellers, but the onus is on buyers to make a statement, by moving price higher, or sellers will keep what marginal control they have, for now. It is not shown on the chart, but we also bought silver futures near the low, Wednesday, opted to sell half the position, next day. |
Monex Precious Metals Review: Gold support at $1308,Silver $21.43 Posted: 21 Sep 2013 04:19 AM PDT Gold support is now anticipated at $1,308, then $1,278, and then $1,249 . . . with resistance anticipated at $1,349, then $1,378, and then $1,428. |
Gold was not selected arbitrarily by governments to be the monetary standard Posted: 21 Sep 2013 01:00 AM PDT Food for thought |
Posted: 20 Sep 2013 11:43 PM PDT By Robert E. Prasch, Department of Economics, Middlebury College. Cross posted from New Economic Perspectives Five long years have passed since the demise of the once venerable firm of Lehman Brothers. To mark the occasion, Wall Street, the United States Treasury Department, the White House, and their several political proxies and spokespersons have taken to the mass media to instruct the public in the "lessons" to be drawn from the financial crisis of 2007-09. Regrettably, we are witnessing the propagation of several self-serving falsehoods in the hope that the public can be induced to embrace them now that the immediacy of the events in question is in the past. Some of the lessons are so flagrantly false that they demand immediate correction.
No One Saw It Coming Of all the falsehoods being circulated, this one is in many ways the most egregious and damaging. It systemically denies the attribution of credit and thereby voice (and political power) to those who in fact did see "it" coming even as it provides blanket exoneration to those whose ignorance–or more likely–cowardice combined with self-interest prevented them from perceiving what was happening in the financial sector. Those making this latter claim can, more correctly, observe that, "no one in our close-knit circle of elites saw it coming." Stated in this form, the statement is suggestive. Why, we might ask, was their circle exclusively made up of individuals who did not, would not, or could not, see the crisis coming? Why is it, in a nation with the diversity and talent of the United States, that all of the senior managers of our largest financial firms, and those charged with regulating them, were exclusively made up of individuals sharing the same perspective – a perspective that, I might add, was and remains so singularly and disastrously dysfunctional for the economy upon which the rest of us depend? These are compelling questions because, as a matter of fact, many highly-informed people "did see it coming." Indeed, by 2007 the American landscape was littered with risk managers, senior analysts, and even a few economists who "did see it coming" and who had the temerity to speak up about it. We also know that these several persons were invariably pressured to remain silent. Refusing to do so, they found themselves marginalized and their careers stalled. Not a few of them were dismissed from their positions for speaking up. Remarkably, five years after the failure of Lehman, not a single one of the many persons with an accurate assessment of what was going on has been elevated to a position of responsibility in the administration of a president who repeatedly promised the American people that he would bring about "change." By contrast, the persons in authority who not only failed, but failed catastrophically, in their appointed roles have been retained or promoted by this administration. Am I the only one who thinks that this is a perverse outcome worthy of mention? The Crisis was Almost Exclusively About Liquidity Wall Street, Treasury, the White House, and the Congressional leadership of both major political parties (who came together to support the infamous bailout legislation that created TARP), desperately want you to believe that in the Fall of 2008 America's largest and most prominent financial firms were illiquid as opposed to insolvent (for the record, insolvent financial firms have made this claim since the beginning of time). From the beginning, the story peddled by Wall Street, Treasury, and the White House is that a momentary, irrational, and essentially groundless "panic" had gripped financial markets, causing a passing, albeit catastrophic, decline in the price of otherwise good and worthy assets. As a consequence, those assets could no longer serve as collateral for the short-term lending that had become lifeblood of Wall Street financing. This perspective, one that remains unquestioned across Manhattan and Northwest Washington, was enshrined in the name given to the bailout legislation – the Troubled Asset Relief Program. Notice, these assets were described as "troubled," not "failed," not "garbage," not "riddled with fraud and misrepresentation." No, they were merely "troubled." To affirm their contention that the problem was one of liquidity rather than insolvency, Wall Street, Treasury, and the White House have never passed on any opportunity to tell us that taxpayers actually "made money" on the bailout. This claim, as with so much else that they have told us, is a whopping falsehood. To maintain this illusion requires a great deal of "creative accounting," as my co-author and I demonstrated in our re-estimation of the true costs of the AIG bailout. TARP was the Only "Responsible" Choice in 2008 Besides being self-serving, this falsehood is rendered even more audacious when Congress' vote for TARP is described as a "difficult choice" that required "courage." Apparently we are to believe that voting for a federal program that lends money at below market rates to major campaign supporters with effectively no accountability is "courageous." Amazing. Understanding the indefensibility of the program, our economic and political elites have made a substantially and touchingly bi-partisan effort to get the public to believe that "TARP was the only choice." This initiative is now doubly important as the ostentatious and open-handed bailout of Wall Street makes a less-than-appetizing contrast with the now undeniable absence of economic recovery experienced by the overwhelming majority of Americans (according to the latest figures from the Census Bureau, the annual income of the median household remains more than 8% below where it was in 2007). But no matter what is said, the public was, and remains, correct in its belief that good options other than the bailout existed. In reality, by the mid-2000s several decades of ideologically-driven deregulation, de-supervision, and willy-nilly mergers that transformed large Too Big To Fail (TBTF) financial firms into even larger TBTF financial firms had come to be exacerbated by systemic opacity and historically high degrees of leverage, much of which was supported by short-term borrowing. Any adult looking at this system would have been alarmed, but by that time few adults were present. Ultimately, the entire house of cards was dependent upon real estate values rising at 12-15% a year when, at best, American household incomes were rising at 2-3% a year. Everyone, except perhaps Wall Street executives, knows that mortgages are ultimately paid out of household incomes. Since the system had come to depend upon property values and the ensuing mortgage debt rising substantially faster than household incomes, it was certain to fail. What no one could know and did not know was the exact date that failure would occur. But that it would fail was a certainty. When the system did implode, there was some good news – the United States has an extensive experience with resolving failed banks. Since the 1980s, the Federal Deposition Insurance Corporation (FDIC) has taken over literally hundreds of them (and it has taken over almost 500 more since the crisis began). However, in the Fall of 2008 there was one difference, but it turned out to be crucial – some of the banks that were being rendered insolvent in the crisis were exceptionally large and they were even more connected politically. But what a difference! The correct choice in 2008, which was well understood at the time, was to stay with tried and true strategies. FDIC could and should have taken over the most insolvent banks independently of their size or political connections. Now, at this point some history will be useful. When Continental Illinois Bank failed in 1984 (at the time it was the nation's 7th largest bank), it was recognized that it was simply Too Big To Fail. As a matter of fact, that was the first time that TBTF was used to describe any financial institution. What, exactly, does it mean? It means that the firm in question is deemed to be so central to the system by which payments are made, and contracted financial commitments are cleared, that the disruption caused by its failure would in all likelihood jeopardize the health and even existence of many otherwise safe and sound banks and even non-bank business enterprises. However, the difference between the 1980s and today is that no one said, "Hey, I have a solution to TBTF. Lets just give these demonstratively failed firms and their failed executives oodles of unbelievably cheap money with essentially no strings attached so that they can continue to pursue their failed and/or fraudulent business plans while showering favored insiders with undeserved but astonishingly lavish bonuses." No, that was not how people thought about the TBTF problem as recently as the 1980s. Understanding the centrality of Continental Illinois Bank to the financial system of the United States, FDIC did not immediately shut it down when they took it over. Instead, shareholders were zeroed out, senior management was sacked, and the bank continued to operate with a team made up of FDIC employees supplemented by a number of outside consultants (many of them retired bankers). Also, while the systemically critical functions of TBTF firms continue to function under both approaches, the "old school" 1980s-style FDIC approach had several distinct advantages over the bi-partisan policy devised in the Fall of 2008 and maintained in the Spring of 2009 by Hank Paulson, Timothy Geithner, Ben Bernanke, and Lawrence Summers. First, with FDIC in full control and the bank's failed managers on the sidewalk, the bank's lobbyists and publicists could be immediately fired. This meant that there would be little interference with the work that had to be done going forward (had we followed this blueprint in 2008, financial reregulation would have been greatly facilitated). Second, with FDIC in full ownership of the firm, the FBI had unfettered access to all of the firm's files so that a full and complete forensic audit could be conducted without obstruction or even prior authorization from a judge. Third, the riskiest and most insolvent (or fraudulent) segments of the firm could be closed without delay. Fourth, FDIC could wind up the affairs of the firm and sell off its several businesses piecemeal at good prices (It took about seven years to fully resolve Continental Illinois). Now, it is true that in the case of non-bank financial firms the takeover legalities would have been a little more tricky, but in the end they could have been taken over by the Federal Reserve through its Section 13(3) authority which, by the Fall of 2008, had become something akin to a magician's wand that enabled the Fed to do almost anything it wished. This, probably, would have resulted in the Fed effectively buying these firms for a pittance moments before they filed for bankruptcy (let us recall that the Fed took over AIG in something like this manner only a few days after Lehman failed). Creditors would have been delighted and shareholders would have had few good alternatives. Yes, the Fed would have been responsible for the liabilities of these firms, but as the government was going to be on the hook for these debts one way or the other, why not claim some authority to go along with the responsibility? I could go on, as many other falsehoods about the fateful autumn of 2008 are being trotted about today, although they do not seem to be getting much traction with the public. An example is the often-heard assertion that the Dodd-Frank Act ended TBTF and that Americans will never again be asked to bail out Wall Street. To my knowledge, the only people who say they believe it are on payroll of Wall Street, the Treasury, or the White House. Moreover, the low interest rates that America's largest banks pay to get buyers to purchase their bonds suggests that sophisticated players believe that the guarantee remains very much in place. Unfortunately, the pretense that TBTF is no longer operative is more than just an amusing vanity held by our political classes and their sponsors among our nation's largest financial firms. This is a pretense that can and does have pernicious consequences. The guarantee means, in effect, that the executives of America's TBTF banks are overpaid civil servants who have the authority to create financial obligations fully backed by the United States government. But the pretense that there is no guarantee means that they can do this without any oversight. I don't know about you, but given what we have seen of the judgment and ethics of these individuals, I am less than comfortable with this arrangement. |
How to Put a Stop to Sweatshop Abuse Posted: 20 Sep 2013 11:27 PM PDT Yves here. Notice how American retailers for the most part continue to put profit over lives. By John Miller, a professor of economics at Wheaton College and a columnist for Dollars & Sense magazine. Cross posted from Triple Crisis The April 24 collapse of the Rana Plaza building, just outside of Dhaka, Bangladesh's capital city, killed over 1,100 garment workers toiling in the country's growing export sector. The horrors of the Rana Plaza disaster, the worst ever in the garment industry, sent shockwaves across the globe. In the United States, the largest single destination for clothes made in Bangladesh, newspaper editors called on retailers whose wares are made in the country's export factories to sign the legally binding fire-and-safety accord already negotiated by mostly European major retailers. Even some of the business press chimed in. The editors of Bloomberg Businessweek admonished global brand-name retailers that safe factories are "not only right but also smart." The business press, however, also turned their pages over to sweatshop defenders, contrarians who refuse to let the catastrophic loss of life in Bangladesh's export factories shake their faith in neoliberal globalization. Tim Worstall, a fellow at London's free-market Adam Smith Institute, told Forbes readers that "Bangladesh simply cannot afford rich world safety and working standards." Economist Benjamin Powell, meanwhile, took the argument that sweatshops "improve the lives of their workers and boost growth" out for a spin on the Forbes op-ed pages. For sweatshop apologists like Worstall and Powell, yet more export-led growth is the key to improving working and safety conditions in Bangladesh. "Economic development, rather than legal mandates," Powell argues, "drives safety improvements." Along the same lines, Worstall claims that rapid economic growth and increasing wealth are what improved working conditions in the United States a century ago and that those same forces, if given a chance, will do the same in Bangladesh. But their arguments distort the historical record and misrepresent the role of economic development in bringing about social improvement. Working conditions have not improved because of market-led forces alone, but due to economic growth combined with the very kind of social action that sweatshops defenders find objectionable. U.S. economic history makes that much clear. It was the 1911 Triangle Shirtwaist fire, which cost 146 garment workers their lives, along with the hardships of the Great Depression, that inspired the unionization of garment workers and led to the imposition of government regulations to improve workplace safety. Those reforms, combined with the post-World War II economic boom, nearly eliminated U.S. sweatshops. Since then, declining economic opportunity, severe cutbacks in inspectors, and declining union representation have paved the way for the return of sweatshops to the United States. This trend further confirms that economic development, by itself, will not eliminate inhuman working conditions. In contrast, a combination of forces that could eliminate sweatshops is forming in Bangladesh today. Despite the government's record of repressing labor protest and detaining labor leaders, the horror of the Rana Plaza collapse has sparked massive protests and calls for unionization in Bangladesh. In reaction, the government has amended its labor laws to remove some of the obstacles to workers forming unions, although formidable obstacles remain (including the requirement that at least 30% of the workers at an entire company—not at a single workplace as in the United States—be members of a union before the government will grant recognition). Meanwhile, 80 mostly European retail chains that sell Bangladesh-made garments have signed the legally binding Accord on Fire and Building Safety in Bangladesh. For the first time, apparel manufacturers and retailers will be held accountable for the conditions in the factories that make their clothes. This "joint liability" aspect, a long-held goal of labor-rights advocates, is precisely what makes this international accord so important. Negotiated with worker-safety groups and labor unions, the five-year accord sets up a governing board with equal numbers of labor and retail representatives, and a chair chosen by the International Labor Organization (ILO). An independent inspector will conduct audits of factory hazards and make the results public. Corrective actions recommended by the inspector will be mandatory and retailers will be forbidden from doing business with noncompliant facilities. Each retailer will contribute to the cost of implementing the accord based on how much they produce in Bangladesh, up to a maximum of $2.5 million over five years to pay for administering the safety plan and pick up the tab for factory repairs and renovations. The accord subjects disputes between retailers and union representatives to arbitration, with decisions enforceable by a court of law in the retailer's home country. The signatories include Swedish retailer Hennes and Mauritz, which has more of its clothes made in Bangladesh than any other company; Benetton Group S.p.A., the Italian retailer whose order forms were famously found in the rubble of the collapsed Rana Plaza factory; and Canada's Loblow Companies, whose Joe Fresh clothing was also found at Rana Plaza. Together, their clothes are made in over 1,000 of Bangladesh's 5,000 factories. However, only two U.S. companies, Abercrombie & Fitch and PVH (parent of Tommy Hilfiger and Calvin Klein), have signed the accord. Walmart, The Gap, J.C. Penney, Sears, and the rest of the major U.S. retailers doing business in Bangladesh have refused. The industry trade group, the National Retail Federation, objected to the accord's "one-size-fits-all approach" and its "legally questionable binding arbitration provision" that could bring disputes to court in the highly litigious United States. Several of those retailers cobbled together an alternative agreement signed so far by 17 mostly U.S. retailers. But their "company-developed and company-controlled" plan, as a coalition of labor-rights groups described it, falls well short of the European-initiated plan. It is not legally binding and lacks labor organization representatives. Moreover, while retailers contribute to the implementation of their safety plan, they will face no binding commitment to pay for improving conditions. An AFL-CIO spokesperson put it most succinctly, "This is a matter of life or death. Quite simply, non-binding is just not good enough." |
Gold has not reached the bottom of its correction yet says Jim Rogers Posted: 20 Sep 2013 11:05 PM PDT By his own admission one of the worst market timers investment legend Jim Rogers told Business Insider that gold has yet to bottom out just before it rallied another $60 on the Fed’s decision to maintain its QE money printing program. Still Mr. Rogers was the original commodity bull way back in 1999 just before the long rally. Elsewhere it is on the record that he thinks gold could touch $900 before lifting off again in another major bull run. There’s not been any sign of a price spike that would indicate this long bull market in the yellow metal is over… |
Sept 21, 1933 : Britain goes off the Gold Standard Posted: 20 Sep 2013 10:30 PM PDT Golden Sextant |
Metals & Markets With Turd Ferguson: Fed Monkeys Lose Control! Posted: 20 Sep 2013 10:15 PM PDT
On this week’s Metals & Markets, Turd Ferguson returns to the show to discuss: Fed lunacy: placing this week’s no-tapering and Friday’s MOPE with manipulative metals smash into perspective Political trends: US “peak empire” and dollar trade settlement standard, Debt limit deadline nears; will gold respond with another 2011 like rally? Precious metals as the [...] The post Metals & Markets With Turd Ferguson: Fed Monkeys Lose Control! appeared first on Silver Doctors. This posting includes an audio/video/photo media file: Download Now |
Posted: 20 Sep 2013 09:00 PM PDT
One of Einsteins great contributions to mankind was the theory of relativity, which is based on the fact that there is a real limit on the speed of light. Information doesn’t travel instantly, it is limited by the speed of light, which in a perfect setting is 186 miles (300km) per millisecond. This has been [...] The post The Great Fed Robbery (Smoking Gun Evidence That a Wall St Bank Front Ran The Fed’s No-Taper on Insider Info?) appeared first on Silver Doctors. |
Continental Gold CEO Ari Sussman’s Secret Sauce Posted: 20 Sep 2013 07:50 PM PDT Of the 2000 junior resource companies we track, very few have the strength of Continental Gold Corp. It has over $130 million in the bank, analysts believe its 5.5 million ounce Buriticá high-grade gold deposit in Colombia will become a cash cow, its technical and management teams are well-experienced, and when the deposit gets permitted (late 2014-early 2015), it will likely be taken out by a major. Amazingly, Continental CEO Ari Sussman — who hosted me for a conversation at his Toronto skyscraper office last Thursday — just recently turned 40. “You picked a good day to come see me,†Sussman says with a smile as we sit down in his clean, cream coloured office, decked out with contemporary art. The gold price is actually down 3% today, but in Ari’s view, short term volatility doesn’t matter — gold will outperform whether the Fed prints or not. “End the stimulus, and get a hard recession, or even depression, which is positive for gold. Remember: gold mining stocks performed amazingly during the Great Depression. Homestake was up something like 500% between 1929 and 1935,†Ari says. Alternatively, central banks can continue to inflate their currency to stimulate their economies, which is also good for gold, he adds. It’s not just monetary intervention driving the yellow metal, according to Ari. “Have you seen the leverage on the paper gold market to inventories of physical gold available for delivery? 60:1. It’s worse than subprime. If you’re going to take delivery, where’s it going to come from? There’s no gold available.†“I swear I’m not a gold bug,†Ari shrugs. “These are facts.†I was introduced to Mr. Sussman through Pat Di Capo at PowerOne Capital. Pat and Ari are both forces 40 and under in the junior resource business. The two met while taking excess office space from Sheldon Inwentash’s Pinetree Capital, and went on to found several companies together — Pat the Limited Market Dealer/broker, Ari the CEO. “Ari’s secret weapon is his ability to find and motivate talent,†Di Capo tells me, referring to Sussman’s partner, acclaimed Australian geologist Vic Wall. Wall won the Goldcorp Challenge in 2001 and is one of the mining industry’s most successful explorers. Wall, 69, met Sussman, 40, at a quiet PDAC mining conference in 2002, during the junior mining downturn of 1997-2003. Sussman says he was able to build a relationship with the legendary geologist because the industry was so dead back then, and both men had ambition to create wealth. The duo’s first deal was Colossus Minerals, which assembled the Serra Pelada precious metals project in Brazil, and was the site of South America’s largest gold rush in the 1980s (19 pics). Sussman, Wall and others, with the help of Di Capo, financed and developed that project to near-term production. Colossus shares reached almost $10 and maintained strong liquidity during Ari’s tenure as CEO. He left the position in 2011 to focus solely on Continental. [Ed. note: Under new management, Colossus has had its difficulties. According to Ari, they were underfunded at the wrong time.] Colombia After their success in Brazil, Sussman and Wall wanted to do something special in Colombia. Former president Uribe was stamping out corruption, the country’s geological potential was well-known, and Sussman had grown fond of the place after backpacking there in his early 20s. According to Ari, the man with his fingerprints on everything gold in Colombia is Bob Allen. Mr. Allen, an American, moved to Colombia in the 1980s on the promise of its mineral potential. Ahead of his time, he spent the next twenty years assembling a portfolio of gold projects before having huge success in recent years by attracting partners such as Sussman and Wall, AngloGold, B2Gold, and others to develop his projects including Buriticá, Gramalote, and La Colosa. “Bob has a tremendous vision and a great nose for assets,†Ari tells me. Sussman and Wall saw potential in Allen’s private company, Continental Gold Corp. Allen had founded it in 1986 and stored much of his Colombian portfolio there, but many of the projects were dormant. Sussman was able to convince Allen to let him take Continental public in 2010, with Ari as CEO, Wall as Special Advisor, and Allen as Chairman. Buriticá Of the projects within Continental’s portfolio, Wall became focused on Buriticá, which operated a small but high-grade underground gold mine on a mountainside 60KM from Medellin. The project had been producing on a small scale, and had only a few drill holes in it when Wall and Sussman arrived. Honing in on the mine, Wall was able to reclassify Buriticá’s potential. Continental has since been able to prove up a resource in Buriticá which has become the envy of every gold company in Colombia — and all the majors are circling, according to Ari. Buriticá is rare for its size and high-grade: 5.5 million ounces averaging around 10 grams per tonne gold in thick, deep veins. The deposit is open along strike and at depth, with depth being the key for exploration potential. Sussman believes Buriticá could grow to 10 million ounces or more. Analysts tend to agree. “Buriticá could be producing 200,000 ounces a year for 20 years. It’ll be a cash cow for Continental Gold, or whichever major eventually takes it over,†said Colombia Gold Report’s Paul Harris. Banks including RBC, TD, CIBC, BMO, Scotia, GMP, Dundee, and Clarus cover the company, with targets of $5.50 to $11.00 on Continental’s shares. Continental trades on the Toronto Stock Exchange under the symbol CNL, last at $4.00. The market believes Buriticá will be sold. Last leg Continental will spend approximately $60 million in 2014 of the company’s $130 million treasury. Approximately half will be spent on drilling; the other half will go to underground development and G&A. Permitting is a huge catalyst for Buriticá, says Ari. The project is already permitted with a mining license but requires a final amendment to the existing environmental permit to cover the surface portion of the proposed new mine, including the plant and tailings area. Continental is working closely with the authority who will review the application. Sussman expects to file the amendment application in late 2013, and is cautiously optimistic to receive permitting within a year from then (late 2014 to early 2015). Sussman is quick to remind me that permitting was Extorre’s catalyst to being sold to Yamana in 2012. Continental is also drilling in new areas underground, and at other new discoveries on the 50,000+ hectare property. The company is also working with M3 Engineering on a PFS scheduled for 2014. M3 worked on the Penasquito project, one of Goldcorp’s cornerstone assets. Sussman says Buriticá has similarities to Penasquito. Both are CBM deposits, which have rich, deep veins. “There’s going to be a panic amongst majors to acquire good assets, and there’s already a massive shortage of quality projects available,†Ari says with concern for established gold producers. If Sussman’s team can execute over the next year to year and a half, there’s a high chance he’ll be looking for work come 2015, at which time he’ll be 42. In addition to Continental, Ari sits on the board of Dalradian Resources, which is advancing the Curraignhalt Deposit in Ireland, and is led by Patrick Anderson. Anderson previously developed and sold Aurelian Resources to Kinross for $1.2 billion. Sussman, Allen and Continental Gold are also behind Sabre Metals, which is in the process of amalgamating with Cordoba Minerals, led by Fortuna Silver Chairman Simon Ridgeway. Sabre is currently drilling a high-grade copper-gold porphyry target in Colombia, which if it hits, Ari says, could be spectacular. But it’s higher risk. In my brief study of Ari Sussman, I found him to be engaging and articulate. His secret is simple: be extremely well-capitalized with the best people and best projects. Watch Continental’s video starring Ari and check out their Web site for more: More: Continental Gold Corp.
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Denver Gold Forum hoping for record as gold appeals to more value investors Posted: 20 Sep 2013 06:19 PM PDT The premier supply-side gold conference – the Denver Gold Forum – starts this weekend and hopefully the audience will hear some new views from the new CEOs of some of the world's top gold miners. |
India to resume gold imports but rules mean no rush Posted: 20 Sep 2013 04:02 PM PDT GATA |
Posted: 20 Sep 2013 04:00 PM PDT KanColl |
Gold Fields says it acted lawfully in SA ownership deal Posted: 20 Sep 2013 03:29 PM PDT Gold Fields responds to allegations in the Mail & Guardian it may have violated anti-corruption laws. |
Gold's Reaction To Fed Is A Bearish Signal, Libya Weighs On Oil, Copper At Top Of Range Posted: 20 Sep 2013 03:27 PM PDT By Sumit Roy Commodities had a mixed week, as copper, wheat and palladium rallied, while silver, oil and soybeans declined. Stocks, as measured by the S&P 500, rose by 1.5%, taking their year-to-date gain up to 20.1%. Macroeconomic Highlights The biggest event of the week was the Fed's policy meeting and decision on Wednesday. The central bank surprised markets by announcing it would maintain its quantitative easing program as is, with $85 billion worth of bond purchases per month. Most economists had expected the Fed to taper QE by $10 billion to $15 billion per month. Chairman Bernanke and the Fed said that tapering was a possibility later this year, but that action would be dependent on the data. St. Louis Fed President James Bullard told reporters at Bloomberg today that the bond-buying programs could be trimmed as soon as the October meeting, but that he wanted to see evidence |
Gold, silver prices lose ground after post-Fed surge Posted: 20 Sep 2013 03:24 PM PDT With falling Asian demand and a rallying dollar, gold cut its gains on no-taper news by a third. |
Commodity ETF Flows: GDX Rakes In $1.03 Billion, Rallies 8.25% Posted: 20 Sep 2013 03:18 PM PDT By Hannah Tool The Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX) outshined all other commodity ETPs in both inflows and performance in the week ending Thursday, Sept. 19, as overall net inflows pushed commodity ETFs up nearly 1% in total assets with a gain of $1.31 billion. Inflows by sector were led by precious metals, which yanked in $861 million, followed by energy piling on $549 million. However, all other sectors saw net outflows, with broad market (multicommodity) losing $81 million; agriculture shedding $19 million and industrial metals coming up $3.36 million short. Commodity ETPs include exchange-traded funds (ETFs), exchange-traded notes (ETNs) and exchange-traded vehicles (ETVs). ETF Inflows/Outflows It's no surprise that funds from the precious metals and energy sectors monopolized the biggest gainers list, led by massive inflows into GDX, which piled on $1.31 billion and increased AUM by just under 15%, while Energy Select SPDR (XLE) scooped up $364 |
Australian bankers frosted by Fed, want their own dollar lower Posted: 20 Sep 2013 03:02 PM PDT GATA |
Dan Norcini About Today’s Gold & Silver Price Drop Posted: 20 Sep 2013 02:59 PM PDT Gold has now surrendered half of the gains that it put on as a result of Wednesday’s FOMC announcement that the TAPERING was on hold. It is currently trading at 1337 as I type these comments. While the US equity markets are a bit weaker, the S&P 500 is still sitting firmly above the 1700 level. Interest rates on the Ten Year are near 2.75% while the grain markets are imploding lower and crude oil continues to drop off its best post-FOMC announcement levels. In short, we are pretty much back to where we were prior to the FOMC. Why do I say this? Simple – this morning Fed governor Bullard managed to do what many in the Fed have been doing since May of this year, namely, jawboning the markets and setting them up for another possibility of tapering later this year. What has it been, 2 days since we got that FOMC press release and here we already are talking about starting the Tapering once again. Good grief! This is like some sort of sick version of the movie “GroundHog Day”. It seems as if these people simply cannot restrain themselves from yakking away whenever a microphone is present. I do not know about some of you, but I get the distinct impression from watching these events unfold that the Fed literally has no earthly idea what to do next. They would like to start reducing the amount of bond buying but understand that they cannot, given the current economic conditions. So they talk about it perhaps to comfort themselves or even persuade themselves, that they really are being responsible stewards of the nation’s monetary policies and are aware of the inherent dangers in a near-endless barrage of money printing. The truth is that the Fed is trapped in a net of their own making and I think some of these governors realize it. Maybe some of them are making speeches as a sort of CYA strategy just in case history is not kind to them. They can point to their various speeches and say: ” Hey I was out there making a case for ending this QE stuff. Don’t blame me!” As I have written repeatedly this week, these QE programs have managed to take on near immortality simply because the job market in this nation is so pathetic that many consumers simply do not have the confidence or financial wherewithal to taken on new and large loads of debt. Velocity of Money keeps moving lower, not higher and thus the driving force needed to generate strong, upward price pressures in the economy is not there. With wages flat and many working at part time jobs, where is the force going to come from to propel economic activity in this nation strongly higher? IN a debt based system, more and more, larger and larger, amounts of debt have to be taken on for the economy to grow. It is difficult to do that if consumers are afraid to spend with the same reckless abandon as they did during the boom years. Remember when re-financing was the coolest trick in town – turn your house into a giant ATM machine and use the savings from the lower rates to go and buy that new ATV or Jet-ski? Those days are long gone so if the consumer cannot tap their home equity and wages are going nowhere, where is the cash going to come from? Maybe the Fed should just skip this nonsense about buying MBS’s and Treasuries and just send checks to every tax paying household in the US to the tune of $85 billion each and every month? I don’t know about you, but I think this money would get directly injected into the economy a helluva lot faster than it does by sitting in the reserves of the big banks or in the equity markets.I guarantee you that if I were to receive a nice, big, fat check from the Fed each and every month, I would have my ATV upgraded to a woodgrain dash and chrome wheels. Heck I would buy a new Polaris RZR just for fun! A nice COBALT boat would somehow find its way into my establishment also! Obviously I am being facetious here but I think my point is made – most of this new money being created by the Fed is not moving into the system. What ails this nation cannot be fixed by Fed action only; it requires STRUCTURAL REFORMS, and we are not going to get that while the current administration remains in office. It really is that simple. At this point in time, seeing that inflation is not a serious concern of most market participants, it is going to take an issue dealing with CONFIDENCE to take gold sharply higher into a sustained uptrend. Remember gold is an asset that pays no interest; therefore it must appreciate in value if it is to be of any benefit to those who buy it as an investment. That means we must have all of the elements in place that are required to drive the price of gold higher. First and foremost among those is CONFIDENCE, especially in the currency of a nation. A loss of confidence in a nation’s currency results in rising prices as the currency’s loss of value is reflected in that area first. This is why I keep coming back to the commodity complex as a whole… we must see a broad-based upward move in the commodity complex before gold will find strong, SUSTAINED, new speculative inflows. Currently we are not getting that. (original source: Dan Norcini’s personal blog) |
Ted Butler: JP Morgan Holds 2 Corners In The Gold And Silver Market Posted: 20 Sep 2013 02:53 PM PDT In this interview with SprottMoney, Ted Butler comments on the latest evolutions in the gold and silver market. In particular, the conversation is focused on the current concentrated positions of JP Morgan and its evolution on price. Mr. Butler is convinced the manipulation is there but he is also sure that it will end sooner or later with a huge upside impact on the prices. Ted Butler explains how JP Morgan started out this year massively short in gold and silver. Their position was around 75,000 contracts net short in gold and 35,000 contracts net short in silver. The whole reason behind the decline in the first half of the year was JP Morgan rigging prices through their monopoly in the COMEX to the point that prices came down and they were able to buy back many of their short positions in silver and all of their short positions in gold. The company made about 3 billion dollars on closing out these shorts. In gold, they went long till they reached 85,000 contracts long in gold. In the August rally they made another 350 million dollar of profits. JP Morgan was not able to get long in the silver market however. Right now they are sitting on a monopoly on the long side of the gold market and a concentration on the COMEX silver market. - Ted Butler on JP Morgan’s incentive to corner the gold market to the long side.
- The likelihood that JP Morgan was behind the sharp sell offs in price?
- What to think about the fact there is not any response on his allegations?
- Can the gold and silver price only rise after the COMEX and LBMA will default?
- Butler’s take on the price of gold and silver for the remainder of this year.
Ted Butler offers an excellent premium service with weekly updates on the gold and silver market evolutions: www.butlerresearch.com. |
Reasons for short term volatiltiy in Gold and Silver Posted: 20 Sep 2013 02:09 PM PDT Jobs data comes out every few weeks. This almost always puts downside pressure on the market, with about a 90% probability. Also, presidential press conferences tend to have a 70% downside probability. The powers that suppress the precious metals prices cannot have metals surging while the president speaks. |
Recent Rally in Gold – A Sign of Strength? Posted: 20 Sep 2013 02:03 PM PDT
Based on the September 20th, 2013 Premium Update. Visit our archives for more gold & silver articles.
According to Reuters, gold is often seen as an inflation hedge (while it is really a system hedge in our opinion) and this safe-haven investment, has fallen nearly 20% this year on fears of an end to easy central bank money, which had propelled it to record highs in 2011.
On Wednesday, after the Fed said it would stick to its stimulus plan for now, the yellow metal gained more than 4%, leading the rally in commodities. Yesterday, gold rose to a new one-week high and extended the previous session’s rally, lifted by technical buying and short-covering.
What happened with the US dollar?
The USD Index lost over 1% and declined slightly above the 80 level on Wednesday. It's worth noting that this is its biggest one-day slide in more than 2 months. Additionally, we saw such low values in February, well before Fed Chief Ben Bernanke first floated the idea of tapering the stimulus back in May.
Today, gold slipped a bit, but is still trading around $1,360 an ounce. Can the yellow metal climb higher in the near term? Will the dollar recover quickly? Can we find any guidance in the charts?
In today's essay we'll examine the US Dollar Index (from many perspectives and the long-term gold chart to see if there's anything on the horizon that could drive gold prices higher or lower in the near future. We'll start with the USD Index very long-term chart to put the following gold chart into perspective (charts courtesy by http://stockcharts.com.)
The situation in the long-term chart has changed (for the first time in several months), but the most important thing didn't change. The long-term breakout above the declining long-term support line was not invalidated, even though the USD dropped heavily on Wednesday.
However, since the medium-term breakdown (below the support line marked with red) is visible from this perspective, we could see some short-term weakness anyway. Still, it seems that the long-term support line will stop the decline, so from the long-term perspective, it seems that the downside is quite limited.
Now, let's examine the weekly chart. On the above chart, we see the breakdown more clearly. The breakdown is unconfirmed at this point, and we could still see a reversal back above the previously-broken support/resistance line. It would be a powerful bullish signal, but it seems more likely that we will see another move lower first. This is due to the size of Wednesday's move without a visible intra-day pullback.
The target area is quite unclear because of the multiple support lines, including the long-term support line seen on the previous chart. It seems that we could see the US Dollar Index in the 78-79 range before the bottom is in.
Again the exact price target is unclear.
Let's check the short-term outlook. On the short-term chart, we see that the target area is close to the 79 level. The present cyclical turning point makes the situation extreme and difficult to trade as we could see a powerful pullback immediately even if the target area isn't reached.
Additionally, please note that even though the USD Index has declined heavily in September, we also have gold visibly lower than it was at the beginning of the month.
Is another move lower on a very short-term basis likely? It is – based on the True Seasonals pattern that has been working very well in the past few months.
Let's take a closer look at our new tool. Please note that we saw a visible decline prior to the first part of August after which we saw an upswing which lasted until early September. This has been followed by a significant decline, which is precisely what the True Seasonal patterns were suggesting.
Right now, they are suggesting another small move lower in the final part of this month. Taking the previously mentioned support levels into account, it seems that the move lower could be more significant, but it will be approximately in tune with the True Seasonals pattern.
Please note that the quality of the prediction (green line in the lower part of the above chart) declines in the final part of the month, which means that a deviation (in the form of a bigger decline) is not unlikely.
Consequently, even though the direct impact that the USD Index is likely to have on gold is rather unclear at this time, it seems more likely than not that the impact will be bullish in the very near term (in the next several days).
Once we know the current situation in the U.S currency and the True Seasonal patterns' suggestions on future movements in the dollar, let’s find out what happened during the recent days and check the current situation in gold. On the long-term gold chart, we see that Wednesday's rally was not as bullish as it seemed at first sight. In spite of the strong daily upward move, which pushed gold above $1,360, the situation hasn't changed much from this perspective.
As you see on the above chart, gold verified the breakdown below the long-term resistance line created by the July 2005 and the October 2008 bottoms (taking intraday bottoms into account). At this point, it's worth noting that there was an invalidation of the breakout above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level based on the September 2012 – June 2013 decline earlier this month. This was a bearish sign.
From this point of view, it seems that even if gold increases once again in the coming days and reaches the above-mentioned levels once again, the medium-term outlook will continue to be bearish.
Please note that in 2008, when gold moved higher before plunging for the final time, there were several intra-week attempts to move higher after which gold finally declined. Therefore, a double top pattern should not surprise us here. The same goes for a triple top.
Summing up, on Wednesday, we saw a substantial price move on the gold's and the dollar's charts. However, these moves were significant only on a very short-term basis. Examination of the above charts reveals that they didn't change the long-term and the medium-term tendencies. Despite Wednesday's strength, the downward trend in gold remains in place even though we could see some short-term strength shortly. Taking into account the long-term breakout in the US dollar, the long-term outlook for the USD Index remains bullish, even though we could see additional weakness in the very short term., as indicated i.a. by the True Seasonal charts.
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Thank you for reading. Have a great and profitable week!
Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA Founder, Editor-in-chief Gold Price Projection Website – Sunshine Profits * * * * * About Sunshine Profits
Sunshine Profits enables anyone to forecast market changes with a level of accuracy that was once only available to closed-door institutions. It provides free trial access to its best investment tools (including lists of best gold stocks and silver stocks), proprietary gold & silver indicators, buy & sell signals, weekly newsletter, and more. Seeing is believing. Disclaimer
All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits’ associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be a subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses were based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are believed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski’s, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits’ employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
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Week’s Rise Cut to 1.8% for Gold & Silver as Asian Demand Falls, US Default Risk Rises Posted: 20 Sep 2013 02:01 PM PDT SPOT BULLION prices for gold fell $25 Friday morning from yesterday’s 7-session high, trading at $1350 per ounce as concerns grew that next month’s US “debt limit” deadline could spark panic in financial markets.
Slipping with world stock markets and commodity prices as the US Dollar rallied, gold cut its post-Fed surge – made when the central bank failed to trim its $85 billion per month bond-buying program as expected on Wednesday – by one third.
Silver dropped alongside the gold price, also cutting its week-on-week rise to the same 1.8% at $22.60 per ounce.
“Although the price of gold has been dropping since the end of August,” says French bank and London bullion dealer Natixis, “we would not be surprised to see a re-emergence of the tensions that existed in summer 2011 when the US was downgraded due to the danger that Congress might reject a budget or debt ceiling increase.
“Then, the price of gold reached a record high because of the market’s impression that no agreement could be reached,” says Brown, noting greater intransigence between Republicans and Democrats in 2013 over funding health care.
“I think,” said Fed chairman Ben Bernanke on Wednesday, “that a government shutdown, and…a failure to raise the debt limit, could have very serious consequences for the financial markets and for the economy.”
The debt limit wrangle of 2011 led to ratings agency S&P downgrading US bonds that August. Gold rose $300 per ounce to new record highs above $1900.
Today some 43% of US citizens want Congress to keep the debt ceiling at $16.7 trillion, says a new Washington Post-ABC poll, defaulting on America’s bills and obligations to do so.
Yet 73% also fear that not raising the limit would therefore do “serious harm” to the US economy.
“We cannot afford for Congress to gamble with the full faith and credit of the United States,” Treasury secretary Jack Lew told the Economic Club of Washington on Tuesday, ahead of the US Fed’s decision not to taper its QE bond-buying.
Despite the debt ceiling deadline next month, however, “October is a live meeting” for the US Federal Reserve to discuss tapering once more, St.Louis Fed president James Bullard told Bloomberg today.
“Just as the monetary indicators are turning positive [for gold],” said HSBC in a report Thursday, “physical demand – a mainstay of the market through the summer – is turning less supportive.”
Reuters today notes a sharp fall this week in Asian premiums for physical gold, over and above benchmark London prices.
Hong Kong premiums fell to $1.50 per ounce from $2.50, the newswire says. Tokyo gold went to a slight discount to London settlement.
“There has only been investment buying because of the Fed decision,” says Hong Kong dealer Ronald Leung at Lee Cheong Gold.
“There is no physical interest” from jewelry stockists.
Sales of American Eagle gold coins by the US Mint ticked higher this week, latest data show. But at current rates they remain 80% below September last year and 85% below September 2011.
Speaking about the debt ceiling debate, “[People] expect Washington will only act irrationally for a certain length of time,” says Warren Buffett in a CNBC interview today.
Not raising the debt limit would be “pretty damn dumb.”
The volume of gold held to back the giant SPDR Gold Trust for US investors – the most valuable ETF in the world when the debt ceiling downgrade of 2011 drove prices to record highs – was unchanged Thursday.
Adrian Ash
Gold price chart, no delay | Buy gold online
Adrian Ash is head of research at BullionVault, the secure, low-cost gold and silver market for private investors online, where you can fully allocated bullion already vaulted in your choice of London, New York, Singapore, Toronto or Zurich for just 0.5% commission.
(c) BullionVault 2013
Please Note: This article is to inform your thinking, not lead it. Only you can decide the best place for your money, and any decision you make will put your money at risk. Information or data included here may have already been overtaken by events – and must be verified elsewhere – should you choose to act on it. |
Cartel Capping, Then Crapping On Precious Metals This Week Posted: 20 Sep 2013 01:59 PM PDT
Why mince words? The last 48 hours of price movement are transparent for those with eyes to see (and in the case of the CFTC, maybe a brain to process data, and a spine to fulfill their mission would help). Leading up to the Fed's surprise "no taper" decision, and during the lead-up to what [...] The post Cartel Capping, Then Crapping On Precious Metals This Week appeared first on Silver Doctors. |
Posted: 20 Sep 2013 01:59 PM PDT In my previous article (What if the Fed Really Tapers QE?) I focused on what would be the likely outcome of limiting the QE program on several key markets (gold, real estate, stocks and bonds). Today, we will provide you with an analogous analysis for a completely different scenario.
In the following part of the article we will discuss what's likely to happen if the Fed simply continues the QE program and informs about it in a direct way.
In short, you will find details in the table below – the above scenario is listed as #1 in the table below (last week's analysis focused on scenario #4). The first case seems most probable based on the recent minutes (from 30th-31st of July; the minutes were published on the 21st of August). The Fed is likely to continue the programs, and communicate the message openly without any misinformation. Such scenario is indeed the likeliest one since despite negligible positive signs the economy has not improved sufficiently. The decision will put upward pressure on real estate, since holding on to Mortgage Backed Securities by the Fed should keep up the boost (however inefficient it may be).
In this scenario, the banking system will be covered from liquidity problems, and indirect subsidies to the banking system will be continued. The stock market should therefore grow. What happens to Treasuries? It depends mostly on inflationary expectations. In the short run we should say that Treasuries would gain because one of the main buyers, the Fed, would keep them. Nevertheless, there is a possibility that they will lose value if the market expects this type of policy to lead to inflation. In this case, the Treasuries could go down. However, possibly the Fed would step in again with some other tool to counter that (such as with the "operation twist"). There are limits to such steps, of course. However, as we mentioned last time, we do not see very high inflation on the horizon. So far…
Gold should be on its upward track within a few months (if not sooner), because upon the continuation of the intervention it will probably be considered a good dollar alternative, an anti-system hedge with the proper backup in the physical market.
Summing up, if the Fed continues the QE program and it is communicated directly, gold is likely to move higher within a few months. The full version of this report includes our analysis of 8 different scenarios (as you can see on the above table). We recommend that you stay prepared almost no matter what the Fed does by reading the entire Market Overview report. You can sign up here.
Thank you.
Matt Machaj, PhD Sunshine Profits' Market Overview Editor Gold Market Overview at SunshineProfits.com * * * * * Disclaimer All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Matt Machaj, PhD and Sunshine Profits’ associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be a subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses were based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are believed to be accurate, Matt Machaj, PhD and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Matt Machaj, PhD is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Matt Machaj's, PhD reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Matt Machaj, PhD, Sunshine Profits’ employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice. |
Semafo gets 20% 'bump' to Mana gold grades in Burkina Posted: 20 Sep 2013 01:11 PM PDT Gold miner Semafo buoys its reserve grade with new ounces from the Siou deposit, one of several comprising its open pit Mana gold mine. |
"Dr. Doom" Marc Faber: "Total collapse" is now guaranteed Posted: 20 Sep 2013 01:07 PM PDT From Zero Hedge: With rumors this evening of the White House calling around for support for Yellen, Marc Faber's comments today during a Bloomberg TV interview are even more prescient. Fearing that Janet Yellen "would make Bernanke look like a hawk," Faber explains that he is not entirely surprised by today's no-taper news since he believes we are now in QE-unlimited and the people at the Fed "never worked a single-day in the business of ordinary people," adding that "they don't understand that if you print money, it benefits basically a handful of people." Following today's action, Faber is waiting to seeing if there is any follow-through but notes that the "Fed [has] already lost control of the bond market. The question is when will it lose control of the stock market." The Fed, he warns, has boxed itself in and "the endgame is a total collapse, but from a higher diving board... More from Marc Faber: |
"A horrifying choice": Why the next Fed chairman could be far, far worse than Ben Bernanke Posted: 20 Sep 2013 01:07 PM PDT From The Economic Collapse: Are you ready for Janet Yellen? Wall Street wants her, the mainstream media wants her, and it appears that her confirmation would be a slam dunk. She would be the first woman ever to chair the Federal Reserve, and her philosophy is that a little bit of inflation is actually good for an economy. She was reportedly the architect for many of the unprecedented monetary decisions that Ben Bernanke made during his tenure, and that has many on Wall Street and in the media excited. Noting that we "already know that Yellen is on board with Bernanke's easy money policies," CNN recently even went so far as to publish a rabidly pro-Yellen article with this stunning headline: "Dear Mr. President: Name Yellen now!" But after watching what a disaster Bernanke has been, do we really want more of the same? ... As I have written about so many times, the Federal Reserve is at the very heart of our economic problems, and under Bernanke the Fed has created a mammoth financial bubble unlike anything that we have ever seen before. If Yellen keeps us going down that road, financial disaster is inevitable. Sadly, Yellen is not a woman that believes in free markets. She had the following to say back in 1999... More on the Fed: |
Here's where the next monster gold discovery could be found Posted: 20 Sep 2013 01:07 PM PDT From Pierce Points: Okay, there have been a lot of "world's last exploration frontiers" over the years. But one place that particularly fits the bill might be making the first moves toward opening. India. Officials from the Federation of Indian Mineral Industries (FIMI) gathered for a convention and trade show this week. And brought a message for the government: something has to change in India's mineral sector. The group's president H.C. Daga logged official concerns that India is a major consumer of commodities like gold, coal and phosphate -- and yet the nation's production of these mined products is flagging to non-existent. That's not for lack of mineral wealth in the country. Daga noted that "(t)hough gold ore reserves are estimated to be about 390 million tonnes, production is a mere 0.5 million tonnes due to... More on gold: |
Alasdair Macleod: No Tapering- US in a Massive Debt Trap Heading Towards Hyperinflation! Posted: 20 Sep 2013 12:30 PM PDT
The implications of the Fed not going ahead with tapering are bad for the dollar and won't stop bond yields at the long end from rising. It shows that the whole US economy is in a massive debt trap that cannot be addressed for powerful reasons. The reality is the expansion of cash and deposits [...] The post Alasdair Macleod: No Tapering- US in a Massive Debt Trap Heading Towards Hyperinflation! appeared first on Silver Doctors. |
Submission: The Fed’s Great Adventure in Inflation Posted: 20 Sep 2013 12:18 PM PDT In the current policy and media stoked market environment, anything is possible. It's the wonderful, magical world of hands-on policy making. 5 years after the financial crisis, but still not enjoying a ramping economy like the good old (and long gone) days of the last great secular bull market (RIP 2000)? Just sit back, relax and let the man in charge control the image.
"For the next hour, sit quietly and we will control all that you see and hear. We repeat: there is nothing wrong with your television set. You are about to participate in a great adventure. You are about to experience the awe and mystery which reaches from the inner mind to – The Outer Limits." What has been happening for the last year is that people have been obeying these instructions. Yes, the same herd that reviled "Helicopter Ben" (didn't you just know in your gut that these taunts would come back to bite inflationists, commodity bulls and gold bugs?) in 2011 is now enthralled and awaiting the next chapter in the great adventure. 'The stock bull is a reflection of an organic and healthy economy' claim the politically biased or mentally challenged. We have reviewed graphs in the past comparing the S&P 500 to Monetary Base and other measures of monetary inflation. The cyclical stock bull out of March, 2009 has risen in lockstep with money supply. The current leg of the 13 year long (and counting) big picture stock consolidation per the graph above, has been dependent on money supply creation fueled by increases in the public debt. The stock market loves this policy and is dependent upon it. Why did the FOMC blink on Wednesday? They have smart people who can look at a chart and conclude the same thing; dependency. Many have proclaimed that the S&P 500, at new all time highs, has just begun a new secular bull market. For a grim reminder of how an ATH breakout can fail miserably (I know, because I had bad upside targets based on this breakout), we once again refer to Mr. Huey, the HUI Gold Bugs Index. The question remains, how do you project a new secular bull market 4.5 years into a cyclical bull market that is getting long in the tooth? Bulls making such projections are staking claim to a contrarian mantle. In my opinion, they are merely capitalizing on a newly bullish public that is ripe to be sold a 'new secular bull' story as the cyclical bull matures. Precious metals players have suffered untold ignominy in this great adventure. "But but but… precious metals always go up when inflation's effects (i.e. prices) do!" Well no, they don't. Over the long term they effectively protect against the price effects of inflation subject to certain err… adjustments. Over the last 2 years the gold "community" has gotten adjusted. It is as simple as that. The steady march of inflation's embedded effects continues unabated. This brings us back to Biiwii/NFTRH's biggest picture theme; we are in an era of chronic economic contraction being fought by policy makers in the only way they know how; through inflation. One day the system is going to puke up all of this debt. That is where the first real deflation since the 1930′s could come in (2008 was a liquidation within an ongoing inflationary era). Meanwhile, there are signs that the deflationary pull in play over the last 2 years may be changing. Nobody expects an inflation problem because the effects of the current inflation have been so well contained over the last 2 years (post-2011 commodity blow off). This is not a prediction that inflation's effects are going to rise to the surface soon, but we do note that it is a distinct possibility. We also note that despite this post's Outer Limits shtick (it's getting over played, I know) policy makers are not in total control. Casino patrons merely perceive them that way in the current phase. The Fed wants inflation and is trying to achieve it, per FOMC's own words. But will they get it? If so, how much of it will they get? The desired amount (that they think they can control) or something more undesirable? Is it a coincidence that China and Japan were net buyers of T bonds in July? They were net sellers in June and then we were served Huey, Dooey & Louie (Fed talking heads in the media) and a 24/7 "taper" hype job. Now, global supply and demand has taken a 'tic' toward favorable for T bonds (for July, anyway) and suddenly the Fed surprises with NO TAPER. Are you kidding me? Who is really in control here? Charts courtesy of SlopeCharts. Biiwii.com, Notes From the Rabbit Hole, Twitter, Free eLetter |
Small (Capex) Is Beautiful in Silver and Gold, Says Salman’s Ash Guglani Posted: 20 Sep 2013 12:16 PM PDT TICKERS: AMM; AAU, EDR; EXK; EJD, GPR; GPL, KBR; KBX, PVG, RD, SSO; SSRI, SVM Source: Kevin Michael Grace of The Gold Report (8/26/13)
COMPANIES MENTIONED: ALMADEN MINERALS LTD.: ENDEAVOUR SILVER CORP. : GREAT PANTHER SILVER LTD. : KIMBER RESOURCES INC. : PRETIUM RESOURCES INC. : RED EAGLE MINING CORP. :SILVER STANDARD RESOURCES INC. : SILVERCORP METALS INC.
TGR: The traditional market advice is sell in May and go away. This period of market restraint typically lasts until November. Why should investors in precious metals come back then? Ash Guglani: What we’re seeing now is companies adapting to a new environment. The big theme this past quarter was cost containment. Many companies have followed through on that and reported good operating numbers. Going into the fall, investors will have the opportunity to pick companies that have shown improvement. TGR: We’ve had a recovery in bullion, with silver over $23/ounce ($23/oz) and gold over $1,350/oz. Do you expect silver and gold equities to increase to match the increases in bullion? AG: Yes. We’re seeing it now. The main thing is that we need some sort of price stability so that companies can adapt to this new price-point environment. If you go through the quarterly earnings, a lot of companies are cutting headcounts, capital expenditures (capexes) and exploration budgets. They are focusing on operating efficiency. I’m finding that miners are very quick to react. TGR: I’ve been looking at your coverage list and see Pretium Resources Inc. (PVG:TSX; PVG:NYSE). Its Brucejack project in British Columbia has been an investors’ darling for years. The company put out a feasibility study in June, and you visited the site that month. In your opinion, is the promise justified?
AG: Pretium’s flagship asset is its high-grade Brucejack project. In the Brucejack feasibility study, the capex was $663.5 million ($663.5M). For that amount of money it would produce 7.1 million ounces of gold over a 22-year mine life. This bodes well for the project. There are not a lot of high-grade discoveries like this out there right now. The feasibility study showed the numbers are very strong. In our visit, Pretium outlined a little bit more of what it is doing with underground development. The bulk sampling remains the major catalyst for the story and we’re hoping to see that by the end of 2013. TGR: Why is the bulk sample so important? AG: When you get a high-grade asset like Brucejack, there’s always the question of what kind of grades we are actually going to see consistently. The main reason for the bulk sample is to verify the strength of the economics of this project. TGR: How is Pretium’s cash position? AG: At the end of June it had $33M in cash. The company is in a position now where it doesn’t need a lot of cash at this moment. The feasibility is done and most of the exploration work is finished. Pretium has excavated most of the bulk sample now. Cash-wise, the company is okay for now, but at some point, if it decides to go ahead and develop Brucejack, it will need more cash. But given what we’ve seen with this project, I don’t expect it will have any problem getting the capital it needs. TGR: British Columbia is not known as the easiest place to open a mine in Canada. What suggests to you that Pretium will succeed where others (for environmental and First Nations reasons) have failed? AG: I don’t foresee any environmental problems because Brucejack Lake is not a fish habitat. I believe the company is talking to three different First Nations groups in that area, and the talks have been going well. The company hopes to have agreements in place by the end of the year. Seabridge Gold Inc. (SEA:TSX; SA:NYSE.MKT), which is nearby, also reports positive talks with First Nations. I don’t see any real permitting issues here; the area has been permitted before. The Tahltan tribe worked with Barrick Gold Corp. (ABX:TSX; ABX:NYSE) during the Eskay Creek days. TGR: You rate Pretium a Buy. What’s your target price? AG: $17.50. TGR: Turning to Mexico, you rate Almaden Minerals Ltd. (AMM:TSX; AAU:NYSE) a Speculative Buy. This is a company that has about $24M in working capital and owns its drills. Does that put it in pretty good shape? AG: Definitely. Almaden has a history of raising money in challenging times. It was able to raise another $5.5M in July. It has a strong cash position, and, as you said, it owns its own drills, so the drilling cost per meter is a lot cheaper than its peers. Almaden is in a great position. TGR: Almaden has pursued a policy of drill, drill, drill at the Ixtaca gold-silver zone of its Tuligtic property. How close is this to bearing fruit?
AG: Almaden has drilled about 80,000 meters so far and has done a great job at filling in the blanks. It is a project generator, so I’m pretty sure Almaden’s management is out there generating interest in this story. It will be interesting to see what people think. Ixtaca is a decent gold story with a nice silver byproduct credit. TGR: The Poliquin family, which runs Almaden, finds properties, develops them and then sells them. Do any companies come to mind as possible acquirers? AG: Recently we’ve seen Alamos Gold Inc. (AGI:TSX) make a bid for Esperanza Resources Corp. (EPZ:TSX.V). Mexico being what it is, there would be a lot of producers there that would be looking at a project with this kind of scope. It’s just that we need a little bit of consolidation to start happening in the market first. TGR: What is your target price for Almaden? AG: $3.75. TGR: What other companies have you rated Speculative Buy? AG: Red Eagle Mining Corp. (RD:TSX.V) has pushed for near-term production at its Santa Rosa gold project in Colombia. That’s what I like about this story. It’s not a massive deposit, but it is something that could be producing within a couple of years. It is an open-pit scenario, so Red Eagle could look at different alternatives to get Santa Rosa into production. The company is deciding now whether to go underground first. Red Eagle’s market cap is about $12M. I think it has about $10M in cash. It has some great strategic investors, including Liberty Metals & Mining Holdings and Appian Capital Advisory out of London. Both groups have pretty good technical backgrounds. I don’t expect to see a massive capex for Santa Rosa, and that’s another reason I like it. TGR: What’s your target price for Red Eagle? AG: $0.55. TGR: These days, is small beautiful with regard to capex? AG: Yes, it is. Small is beautiful now. Until we have stabilization in gold and silver prices, the days of looking at multibillion-dollar capexes are over. There are a lot of them out there already, and I don’t think we’re going to see a lot being developed any time soon. TGR: What other companies do you rate as Buys? AG: Silver Standard Resources Inc. (SSO:TSX; SSRI:NASDAQ) and Great Panther Silver Ltd. (GPR:TSX; GPL:NYSE.MKT) are both Buys. My target prices are $16.50 for Silver Standard and $1.30 for Great Panther. TGR: Has Silver Standard met the challenge of the lower silver price? AG: It just reported a good operational quarter. The theme for all these producers is to take the right steps in containing costs. We need to see that continuing over the next few quarters as we figure out where gold and silver prices are going. TGR: What do you think of Silver Standard’s projects? AG: Silver Standard has one operating mine, Pirquitas in Argentina. The company has the big Pitarilla silver-lead-zinc project in Mexico and it has a whole bunch of little projects in its portfolio that it could potentially develop. I think Silver Standard’s main focus right now is increasing efficiency at Pirquitas. I believe it is looking for a partner for Pitarilla.
The beauty of Silver Standard is that it has a pretty sizeable cash position that allows it control over its production profile. The company also has projects that it could divest, if it needed more cash, including a sizeable position in Pretium. I think Silver Standard is actually in a great position right now. TGR: And Great Panther? AG: It is a higher cost producer, but it showed some promise this past quarter. The company needs to demonstrate consistent operating efficiency. TGR: You have a Buy recommendation for Silvercorp Metals Inc. (SVM:TSX; SVM:NYSE), correct? AG: Yes, and a $4.60 target price. Silvercorp has done a good job at scaling back costs wherever it can and shutting down some of its high-cost mines in the Ying mining district. TGR: Has Silvercorp triumphed over those who claimed it had exaggerated its resources in China? AG: I think the company did a good job fighting those allegations and in getting back to what it does best: operating mines in China. So now there is more focus on the actual numbers coming out of the company. TGR: What other companies are in your coverage universe? AG: Kimber Resources Inc. (KBR:TSX; KBX:NYSE.MKT) is a Speculative Buy with a price target of $1.25. The company’s Monterde gold-silver project in Mexico is interesting, but it has been the victim of funding. Its cash position limits what it can do. Kimber needs the market to improve so that investors can open up their wallets to get Monterde back on track. The company needs to do a lot more work to delineate its underground resource. But it does have both open-pit and underground mining scenarios. TGR: Is there one more company you would like to discuss? AG: Endeavour Silver Corp. (EDR:TSX; EXK:NYSE; EJD:FSE) is a Buy recommendation at $5.50. The company has two mines in Mexico, Guanaceví and Bolañitos, that are profitable and cash-flow positive even with $20/oz silver. Its El Cubo acquisition has hampered the company a little bit, but it has taken the right steps to control grade there, and it will be interesting to see how that plays out. TGR: What will it take for investors in gold and silver equities to become excited about the market again? AG: I’ll say again that we need price stability. Also, we need producers continuing to show that they’ve adapted to the new commodity price environment. That’s when investors will begin to see that valuations are ridiculously cheap. That’s when people will start getting excited again. TGR: Many of these companies have been ridiculously cheap for quite some time, but investors have been waiting for a bottom. Have we gotten to the point where investors can’t resist these bargains any longer? AG: I think we’re seeing it now. TGR: Ash, thank you for your time and insights. Ash Guglani is a research analyst with Salman Partners, covering precious metals companies in the mining sector. He has been with Salman Partners since 2004. Guglani holds a Bachelor of Business Administration degree with a focus in finance from BCIT. Want to read more Gold Report interviews like this? Sign up for our free e-newsletter, and you’ll learn when new articles have been published. To see a list of recent interviews with industry analysts and commentators, visit our Streetwise Interviews page. DISCLOSURE: |
Central Rand Gold quadruples on loan funding Posted: 20 Sep 2013 12:09 PM PDT Central Rand Gold shares made their biggest jump since listing in November 2007 after news of debt financing. |
Recent Rally in Gold - A Sign of Strength? Posted: 20 Sep 2013 12:07 PM PDT SunshineProfits |
Posted: 20 Sep 2013 12:01 PM PDT I have a theory about technical indicators, which is that most people only pay attention to the ones that that confirm what they already think. Technicals are primarily entertainment, in other words. But every once a while a market's charts, graphs, and images line up in a persuasive way, and for U.S. stocks this looks like one of those times. A few examples: Margin debt Magazine cover hyperbole Excessive P/E ratios
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Brain Damage – And, Uh, QE Is Working (I’ll Explain) Posted: 20 Sep 2013 11:00 AM PDT
First off, I'd like to say that I'm really quite amazed at the degree of "surprise" over the FOMC policy statement yesterday. Anyone who understands the nature of QE and why it's being done knew back in May when Helicopter Ben first mumbled the word "taper" that the Fed wouldn't reduce QE. If Wall Street's [...] The post Brain Damage – And, Uh, QE Is Working (I'll Explain) appeared first on Silver Doctors. |
Too Big To Fail Is Now Bigger Than Ever Before Posted: 20 Sep 2013 10:39 AM PDT
Ever since the financial crisis of 2008, our politicians have been running around proclaiming that they will not rest until they have fixed "the too big to fail problem", but instead of fixing it those banks have rapidly gotten even larger. Just check out the following figures which come from the Los Angeles Times...
We are witnessing a consolidation of the banking industry that is absolutely stunning. Hundreds of smaller banks have been swallowed up by these behemoths, and millions of Americans are finding that they have to deal with these banking giants whether they like it or not. Even though all they do is move money around, these banks have become the core of our economic system, and they are growing at an astounding pace. The following numbers come from a recent CNN article... -The assets of the six largest banks in the United States have grown by 37 percent over the past five years. -The U.S. banking system has 14.4 trillion dollars in total assets. The six largest banks now account for 67 percent of those assets and the other 6,934 banks account for only 33 percent of those assets. -Approximately 1,400 smaller banks have disappeared over the past five years. -JPMorgan Chase is roughly the size of the entire British economy. -The four largest banks have more than a million employees combined. -The five largest banks account for 42 percent of all loans in the United States. As I discussed above, without these giant banks there is no economy. We should have never, ever allowed this to happen, but now that it has happened it is imperative that the American people understand this. The power of these banks is absolutely overwhelming...
A lot of people tend to focus on many of the other threats to our economy, but the number one potential threat that our economy is facing is the potential failure of the too big to fail banks. As we saw in 2008, when they start to fail things can get really bad really fast. And as I have written about so many times, the number one threat to the too big to fail banks is the possibility of a derivatives crisis. Former Goldman Sachs banker and best selling author Nomi Prins recently told Greg Hunter of USAWatchdog.com that the global economy "could implode and have serious ramifications on the financial systems starting with derivatives and working on outward." You can watch the full video of that interview right here. And Nomi Prins is exactly right. Just like we witnessed in 2008, a derivatives panic can spiral out of control very quickly. Our big banks should have learned a lesson from 2008 and should have greatly scaled back their reckless betting. Unfortunately, that has not happened. In fact, according to the OCC's latest quarterly report on bank trading and derivatives activities, the big banks have become even more reckless since the last time I reported on this. The following figures reflect the new information contained in the latest OCC report... JPMorgan Chase Total Assets: $1,948,150,000,000 (just over 1.9 trillion dollars) Total Exposure To Derivatives: $70,287,894,000,000 (more than 70 trillion dollars) Citibank Total Assets: $1,306,258,000,000 (a bit more than 1.3 trillion dollars) Total Exposure To Derivatives: $58,471,038,000,000 (more than 58 trillion dollars) Bank Of America Total Assets: $1,458,091,000,000 (a bit more than 1.4 trillion dollars) Total Exposure To Derivatives: $44,543,003,000,000 (more than 44 trillion dollars) Goldman Sachs Total Assets: $113,743,000,000 (a bit more than 113 billion dollars - yes, you read that correctly) Total Exposure To Derivatives: $42,251,600,000,000 (more than 42 trillion dollars) That means that the total exposure that Goldman Sachs has to derivatives contracts is more than 371 times greater than their total assets. How in the world can anyone say that Goldman Sachs is not being incredibly reckless? And remember, the overwhelming majority of these derivatives contracts are interest rate derivatives. Wild swings in interest rates could set off this time bomb and send our entire financial system plunging into chaos. After climbing rapidly for a couple of months, the yield on 10 year U.S. Treasury bonds has stabilized for the moment. But if that changes and interest rates start going up dramatically again, that is going to be a huge problem for these too big to fail banks. And I know that a lot of you don't have much sympathy for the big banks, but remember, if they go down we go down too. These banks have been unbelievably reckless, but when they fail, we will all pay the price. |
Not everything is rosy with Gold coins market: GoldCoin.net Posted: 20 Sep 2013 10:34 AM PDT Offlate media is carrying several news items regarding auctioins held for a wide range of gold coins, with the final bids often exceeding previous estimates. |
The Fed's Incredibly Reckless E-Money Printing Posted: 20 Sep 2013 10:25 AM PDT How to collapse the gold price? Discover a way to stop e-printing money to inflation destruction... WELL, well, gasps Adrian Ash at BullionVault. Like me, the world and all its hedge-fund managers thought the US Fed would start trimming QE money-printing Wednesday. US Treasury bonds were down, stocks were soft, and gold and silver were long set for a cut to the money-creation scheme, too. The Fed seemed determined. Ben Bernanke said as much in June. But no. "The unemployment rate remains elevated," said its long-awaited September statement, a point repeated by Fed chief Ben Bernanke in his press conference half an hour later. By then, the US stock market had already leapt to new all-time highs. "Mortgage rates have risen further," the Fed went on, "and fiscal policy is restraining economic growth. Inflation has been running below the Committee's longer-run objective." And with that inflation objective at 2.0%, the Fed chief's not kidding. Slipping to 1.3% this summer, the half-decade rate of annual CPI is now less than half its 20-year average. It's below one-third its average pace of the last 60 years. You can spell "deflation", right? ![]() Better keep running the printing press then, and keep running it at $85bn per month. Or rather, as Bernanke first explained in this infamous 2002 speech, keep running its "electronic equivalent". How does it work? Back in 2002, as the academic and then Fed-governor said, gold was selling for $300 per ounce. Imagine, he invited his audience, that a modern alchemist found a way to create it. "The price of gold would collapse immediately after the announcement." Fast forward 11 years, and the Fed chairman's own announcement this week saw the price of the Dollar collapse immediately. Because as the deflation-fighter said in 2002, "US dollars, like gold, have value only to the extent that they are strictly limited in supply." Unlike gold, however, the Dollar doesn't need alchemy to create it. Just a printing press, "or its electronic equivalent." Plus someone to run it. There's no way deflation can kick in, with prices actually falling, if the Fed chooses to wield this ultimate power over the value of money. Quality is destroyed by quantity. Inflation is certain. Yet whilst we're all waiting, deflation has ticked closer again. Making more money printing the only possible reply from the Fed. Fact is, the end of QE should be cheered by savers in precious metals. Because when (if ever) tapering does arrive, and finally kills money printing sometime (if ever) in the next couple of years, we can all get back to earning a decent return from money which isn't being printed into destruction by the Fed's e-alchemist team. But while the exit, even before it actually starts (if ever), is proving painful for us bugs in silver and gold investment, it's also creating havoc for more trusting souls in bonds, stocks and other less political assets as well. Just what does this week's flip-flopping do to the Fed's credibility in the markets, let alone with savers who might trust it to one day raise interest rates from zero? Bernanke is set to stand aside next January. His likely successor in 2014, Janet Yellen, is still louder in her calls for low rates and money printing. But flip-flop again! What if economists, traders and gold-bug pundits have called her wrong too? We all made a "botched projection on Fed tapering" reckon the professional snarksters at Breakout for Finance Yahoo. And just maybe, some other curious minds are asking, Ben Bernanke actually held off so that Yellen can be first the taper – confounding market expectations that she's such a huge dove on inflation and low rates, she'll make the arch-money printer himself look like a buzzard. Perhaps. Like St.Louis Fed president Bullard said today – helping reverse the last of silver's 9.5% jump of less than two days ago, with surely a new record for Fed indecision inside 48 hours – "Fed officials will argue that they never told the market that it was likely to be September, and that the data has always been the key," as Standard Bank currency strategist Steven Barrow writes. "But the surge in yields since Bernanke's speech in May," says Barrow, "when he first forewarned the market about tapering, should have alerted the Fed to the extreme sensitivity of the market. [It also showed] that playing around with the market's emotions, by not tapering when the market anticipated fewer bond buys, risks damaging the Fed's credibility." Certain big-name pundit economists have long called for credible recklessness from the Federal Reserve. They're pretty much got it to date, as well. But now the recklessness is getting incredible, however. Gold and silver investors especially should gird up for more volatile days, weeks and months ahead. Investors without precious metals might want to get ready for success at last in Ben Bernanke's long anti-deflation campaign as well. Clearly it's going to take more money printing though from Janet Yellen first. |
The Smell of Collapse is in the Air Posted: 20 Sep 2013 10:00 AM PDT
The U.S. stock market is near all-time highs, while politicians and economists are blathering about recovery, low inflation, and good times, but instability and danger are clearly visible in our debt based monetary system. To the extent we rely upon the fantasies of ever-increasing debt, money printing, and credit bubbles, we are vulnerable to financial [...] The post The Smell of Collapse is in the Air appeared first on Silver Doctors. |
Gold & Silver Waterfall Smash in Progress As Fed’s Bullard Threatens Oct Taper Posted: 20 Sep 2013 09:45 AM PDT
The cartel are currently attempting to erase the entirety of gold and silver’s no taper surges Wednesday, as both metals have just been shoved down the proverbial mine shaft. Silver smashed back under $22 briefly but holding as an initial bottom, don’t be surprised to see the cartel attempt to take silver all the way [...] The post Gold & Silver Waterfall Smash in Progress As Fed’s Bullard Threatens Oct Taper appeared first on Silver Doctors. |
Friday Humor: Why a QE Taper is Not Possible Posted: 20 Sep 2013 09:30 AM PDT
Today’s pic of the day/ Friday humor examines why even a $10-$15 billion taper to QE was not possible… The post Friday Humor: Why a QE Taper is Not Possible appeared first on Silver Doctors. |
MUST WATCH: Gold Backwardation-The Meltdown of All Meltdowns-Karen Hudes Posted: 20 Sep 2013 09:00 AM PDT
Former World Bank Senior Counsel Karen Hudes says, "It's pretty clear where we're headed, and that is something called permanent gold backwardation. That's a fancy word for people losing confidence in paper currency. That means the value of currency in the future is less than today." How bad is "permanent gold backwardation"? Hudes, who spent [...] The post MUST WATCH: Gold Backwardation-The Meltdown of All Meltdowns-Karen Hudes appeared first on Silver Doctors. |
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