Gold World News Flash

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• James Rickards: “When The International Monetary System Collapses—It’s Going To Be About How Much Gold You Have”
• How One Man Took China’s Gold
• The Second Amendment…
• Gold volumes "quiet" as China prepares for Golden Week
• Anglo American SA settles silicosis case with 23 gold miners
• Optimism high at Denver Gold Forum but leadership is what’s needed
• World’s worst gold stock gets debt-market reprieve
• How one man took China’s gold
• 50 shades of gold – Frank Holmes
• Gold, Silver Advance as U.S. Budget Concerns Escalate
• Collapse Is In Hindsight – It Is A Matter Of Time (Part II)
• The Smell of Collapse is in the Air - Part 2
• Hidden Secrets Of Money 3: Dollar Crisis To Golden Opportunity — Mike Maloney
• How one man took China’s gold
• QE to increase substantially
• Thailand considers establishing spot gold exchange
• Dollar CRISIS this Winter, CONFISCATION of Gold & Silver: Alasdair MacLeod
• ed Concerned About Suspicious Gold Trading After FOMC Meeting
• Fed Concerned About Suspicious Gold Trading After FOMC Meeting
• The Smell of Collapse is in the Air – Part 2
• Market Monitor – September 25rd
• Gold and Silver
• How One Man Took China's Gold
• Can Silver and Palladium Tell Us More About the Outlook for Gold?
• How one man took China’s gold
• Episode 3 - From Dollar Crisis To Golden Opportunity
• Gold Fundamentals
• What You Need to Know About the Africa Boom
• The Denver Gold Forum - Get Ready For Lift-Off
• The Denver Gold Forum - Get Ready For Lift-Off
• Gold Volumes "Quiet" on Options Expiry as Hong Kong Prepares for Golden Week
• China overtakes India as no. 1 gold buyer
• Spot Gold Trading "Quiet" Ahead of China's Golden Week as Asian Shoppers Chase "Gold-Colored" iPhones
• Larry Summers Won’t Burn in Effigy
• AIG's Benmosche Is Sorry For Comparing Bank Bailing Out Taxpayers To A Lynch Mob
• AIG's Benmosche Is Sorry For Comparing Taxpayers To A Lynch Mob
• Core Durable Goods, CapEx Both Miss; Revised Downward
• Gold flat on uncertainty over US budget talks, Fed
• Fed suspects reporters in premature gold surge
• Gold lower at 1319.28 (-6.00). Silver 21.57 (-0.153). Dollar retreats. Euro higher. Stocks called lower. US 10yr 2.65% (-1 bp).
• On the Breakdown in the Correlation Between Gold Price And The Federal Reserve’s Balance Sheet
• Fed Concerned About Suspicious Gold Trading After FOMC Meeting
• Fed Concerned About Suspicious Gold Trading After FOMC Meeting
• Frontrunning: September 25
• Volumeless Drift Lower Continues For Fourth Day
• China Alone is Buying Enough Gold to Make Prices Soar
• One more sell-off in the gold and silver before we will take off, the weak hands are getting out
• World Gold Council elects Randall Oliphant as new chairman
• Physical Gold Bar and Coin Sales Soar 78% To All Time High
• Fives Tonnes of Customer Gold Leave the HSBC Vault

James Rickards: “When The International Monetary System Collapses—It’s Going To Be About How Much Gold You Have” Posted: 25 Sep 2013 08:59 AM PDT Following a paradoxal year of declining gold prices and vanishing physical inventories and supplies, James G. Rickards, Senior Managing Director of Tangent Capital and author of the New York Times best seller Currency Wars, was kind enough to share comment. James regularly consults with institutional fund managers, governments, and banking leaders worldwide, and participated in the Pentagon's first ever, financial war games.

How One Man Took China’s Gold Posted: 25 Sep 2013 08:54 AM PDT Jan Skoyles writes: The story of China and their obsession with gold has been revived this year as monthly data shows the phenomenal volumes imported through Hong Kong and being traded on the Shanghai Gold Exchange. However, given how much we gold commentators report on China’s inherent love for gold, it’s surprising that very few realise that less than one-hundred years ago the country lost thousands of years’ worth of reserves.

The Second Amendment… Posted: 25 Sep 2013 08:50 AM PDT from Dollar Vigilante:

Gold volumes "quiet" as China prepares for Golden Week Posted: 25 Sep 2013 08:47 AM PDT China’s long Golden Week holidays are also likely to dent import demand from stockists, dealers report. Read more….

Anglo American SA settles silicosis case with 23 gold miners Posted: 25 Sep 2013 08:47 AM PDT Anglo American sold off its gold assets over a decade ago but this suit and similar initiatives are based on its past as a bullion producer. Read more….

Optimism high at Denver Gold Forum but leadership is what’s needed Posted: 25 Sep 2013 08:47 AM PDT Times are changing in the gold sector, but more clear, visionary leadership is needed. Read more….

World’s worst gold stock gets debt-market reprieve Posted: 25 Sep 2013 08:47 AM PDT For Buenaventura, renewed investor interest is creating an opportunity to tap debt markets as it seeks to revamp its ageing deposits. Read more….

How one man took China’s gold Posted: 25 Sep 2013 08:47 AM PDT Jan Skoyles looks at the fascinating story of how the country lost thousands of years' worth of reserves last century. Read more….

50 shades of gold – Frank Holmes Posted: 25 Sep 2013 08:47 AM PDT There are many shades to gold, such as the Love Trade's buying gold for loved ones and the Fear Trade's purchasing gold as a store of value, says Frank Holmes. Read more….

Gold, Silver Advance as U.S. Budget Concerns Escalate Posted: 25 Sep 2013 08:19 AM PDT 25-Sep (Bloomberg) — Gold and silver futures rose for the first time in four sessions on mounting concern that U.S. budget negotiations have stalled, raising the risk of a government shutdown. The Senate is set to hold a test vote today on legislation passed by the House of Representatives to cover federal spending through Dec. 15 The debate may extend past a Sept. 30 deadline. The next fiscal year begins Oct. 1. "Worries about the U.S. government shutting down are pushing people to gold," Phil Streible, a senior commodity broker at R.J. O'Brien & Associates in Chicago, said in a telephone interview. [source]

Collapse Is In Hindsight – It Is A Matter Of Time (Part II) Posted: 25 Sep 2013 08:11 AM PDT As introduced over the summer, our research of 20 different cycle theories has indicated that as of 2013 serious turmoil will reign in all markets and that the precious metals drop of this year was just the first shot across the board (courtesy: Gary Christenson). Every cycle theory we researched pointed to a collapse in the different financial assets, varying in degree and exact timeframe. The dolldrums are becoming louder. Think about this: either central banks will continue pumping money in the ailing banking system, or they start tapering. In both cases, it is an unsustainable and articial operations. Several observers have commented recently about the near-term / mid-term outlook. The observations are quite unanimous: although the alleged economic experts and mainstream financial media pretend that things are "contained" in reality (under the hood) a mega crisis is boiling and is coming closer.  This article is the continuation of part I which readers can read here.  CAUTION!  Before you continue… If you believe that total government debt can grow FOREVER and more rapidly than the underlying economy, this article is NOT for you. If you believe that governmental deficit spending, QE, and bond monetization can continue FOREVER without major consequences, this article is NOT for you. But if you are sane enough to know that our current economic policies will produce a "train wreck," read on… The U.S. economy is being overwhelmed by a loss of faith and trust in politicians, government, and bankers, excessive debts, artificially low interest rates, unsustainable deficit spending, expensive wars, QE (money printing) to infinity, "Inflate or Die" monetary policy, potential derivatives implosion, Obamacare and so much more.  A slow-motion collapse is occurring and most of us do not see it.  Consider these thoughts from insightful writers: Collapse Indicated by Stalling Growth in Global Financial Reserves Hugo Salinas Price: (link) "As it is, the US can only continue to monetize government debt.  Higher dollar interest rates are inevitable and will cause further government deficits; the debt overhang in both the US and Euro Zone is so great that a rise of a few points in interest rates will explode the deficits, and so on and so forth. Bottom line:  Stalling growth in International Reserves tells me that a world financial collapse is in the offing. Collapse Indicated by Loss of Trust in Western Economic Systems David Stockman:  (link) "There is no honest pricing left at all anywhere in the world because central banks everywhere manipulate and rig the price of all financial assets.  We can't even analyze the economy in the traditional sense anymore because so much of it depends not on market forces, but on the whims of people at the Fed." "The Blackberry Panic of September 2008, in which Washington policy makers led by former Goldman Sachs CEO Hank Paulson, panicked as they saw Wall Street stock prices plummet on their mobile devices, had very little to do with the Main Street economy in the United States.  The panic and bailouts that followed were really about protecting the bonuses and incomes of very wealthy and politically well-connected managers at banks and other heavily leveraged businesses that were eventually deemed too big to fail.  What followed was a massive transfer of wealth from the taxpayers and middle-class savers, in the form of bailouts and zero interest rates on bank deposits imposed by the Fed, to the so-called One Percent.”  "I think the political realities of the situation make the most likely scenario one in which there will be some kind of real financial collapse and disorder that will require a total reconstruction of the system." The Burning Platform:  (link) "Despite the frantic efforts of the financial elite, their politician puppets, and their media propaganda outlets, collapse of this aristocracy of the moneyed is a mathematical certainty.  Faith in the system is rapidly diminishing, as the issuance of debt to create the appearance of growth has reached the point of diminishing returns." "We are witnessing the beginning stages of political collapse.  The government and its leaders are being discredited on a daily basis.  The mismanagement of fiscal policy, foreign policy and domestic policy, along with the revelations of the NSA conducting mass surveillance against all Americans has led critical thinking Americans to question the legitimacy of the politicians running the show on behalf of the bankers, corporations and arms dealers." "We are supposedly five years past the great crisis.  Magazine covers proclaimed Bernanke a hero.  If we are well past the crisis, why are the extreme emergency measures still in effect?  If the economy is growing and jobs are being created, why do we need $85 Billion of government debt to be monetized each and every month?" "Just the slowing of debt creation will lead to collapse.  Bernanke needs a Syrian crisis to postpone the taper talk.  Those in control need an endless number of real or false flag crises to provide cover for their printing presses to keep rolling." Bill Fleckenstein:  link "Since April, the 10-Year has gone from about 1.6% to as high as 3% recently.  Now we have to see when this rally in bonds stops.  The bond market will then roll over and then the Fed won't have the tapering as an excuse.  It means the bond market has ceased to price in the scenario that the Fed wants, and the bond market is not responding to the Fed's moves in the short-run.  In the old days we would call that 'losing control of the bond market.'  And if that starts to happen, all hell is going to break loose." Michael Pento:  link "The 10-Year went from 1.4% to 3%, and that made Mr. Bernanke panic.  The average on that (10-Year) yield is 7% in the modern era since 1971 when we closed the 'gold window.'  So, if the average is 7%, and the United States of America, this once great land, can't (even) tolerate a 3% yield on the 10-Year Note, that means the Fed can never unwind QE. That's enough to cuff Mr. Bernanke's hands.  So the Fed is indeed trapped as you indicated.  They cannot significantly bring down QE.  That means a perpetual increase in the Fed's balance sheet.  That (also) means an inexorable rise in asset bubbles like stocks, bonds, and real estate, and it's going to end (very) badly." Hank Paulson Interview:  link  ”Paulson believes there will be another financial crisis." "It's a certainty.  As long as we have markets, as long as we have banks, no matter what the regulatory system is, there will be flawed government policies.  Those policies will create bubbles." Alternate Interpretation:  As long as we have Treasury Secretaries who represent the interests of Goldman Sachs and Wall Street bankers instead of the US economy, then we can be certain of another financial crisis Collapse in Retirement Income Dennis Miller:  link "While the Federal Reserve holds down interest rates and floods the banking system with money, it's destroying the retirement dreams of several generations.  The Employee Benefit Research Organization reports that 25 – 27% of baby boomers and Generation Xers who would have had adequate retirement income – under return assumptions based on historical averages – will run out of money if today's low interest rates are permanent." In addition to the problem of low yielding investments caused by the historically low interest rates created by the Fed, even more retirees will run out of money, much sooner, when the inevitable inflation in food and energy prices smacks the U.S. economy, and especially retirees. DISCUSSION It seems clear that we are losing faith in our politicians, our leaders, and our financial systems.  Approval levels for congress and the President of the United States are low.  Too-Big-To-Fail banks and "banksters" are despised and openly criticized. The Federal Reserve is losing credibility; more and more people are realizing that QE is good for the bankers and the wealthy, but that it does little for "Main Street" people except drive up the prices they pay for food and energy. The American public is generally opposed to war in the Middle East but that seems to matter little to the political and financial elite who will profit from the war. Most people, so it appears, know that inflation is much higher than officially stated, and that inflation will become far worse than it is today.  (When was the last time you saw a cup of premium coffee or a gallon of gasoline for less than $1.00?) Read:  This Crazy Extend & Pretend Economic World  |  Going Dark!  Economic Cycles Point Downward   GE Christenson |  The Deviant Investor

The Smell of Collapse is in the Air - Part 2 Posted: 25 Sep 2013 08:09 AM PDT If you believe that total government debt can grow FOREVER and more rapidly than the underlying economy, this article is NOT for you. If you believe that governmental deficit spending, QE, and bond monetization can continue FOREVER ... Read More...

Hidden Secrets Of Money 3: Dollar Crisis To Golden Opportunity — Mike Maloney Posted: 25 Sep 2013 08:01 AM PDT from GoldSilver.com: Today we bring you Episode 3 of Mike Maloney’s Hidden Secrets of Money. Mike was asked to speak at an event in Singapore and to give his opinion on the future for the U.S. Dollar. His presentation was titled ‘Death Of The Dollar Standard’ and showed very clearly that the Dollar Standard is developing serious cracks, and will likely split at the seams during this decade. How will this affect you?

How one man took China’s gold Posted: 25 Sep 2013 08:00 AM PDT by Jan Skoyles, TheRealAsset.co.uk The story of China and their obsession with gold has been revived this year as monthly data shows the phenomenal volumes imported through Hong Kong and being traded on the Shanghai Gold Exchange. However, given how much we gold commentators report on China's inherent love for gold, it's surprising that very few realise that less than one-hundred years ago the country lost thousands of years' worth of reserves. Whilst the 1930s saw the Shanghai Gold Business Exchange as one of the biggest gold centres in the Far East. China's love for gold left them vulnerable to two separate accounts of looting. The first was in 1937 when Japan invaded China, thus helping themselves to 6,600 tonnes of gold from the then capital Nanking. Read More @ TheRealAsset.co.uk

QE to increase substantially Posted: 25 Sep 2013 07:59 AM PDT In my KWN interview on February 20, I discussed that with the US on life support, this was the wrong time to turn off the machine. A country with debt going up exponentially, real GDP and real wages going down and real unemployment at 23% is not in a position to stop the stimulus. Add to that a US and European banking system full of of toxic debt and worthless derivatives and we know why the Fed is worried. Instead we will see more QE and a crashing dollar. The Fed is clearly lost and they don’t even believe their own propaganda. With words they must make confident noises as if the economy was improving and and as if they were in control over monetary policy. But they know the underlying US and World economy are too weak to turn down the printing presses.  And we know they can’t even control the printing presses since they are running amok. To double US debt to $17 trillion in 6 years has been totally effortless for Bernanke and his cohorts. What is clear is that there will not be any meaningful tapering for many, many years. Because the next significant move will be an increase in QE. I could easily see QE doubling some time during 2014 and thereafter run into many trillion dollars and eventually much more as the dollar collapses. With the dollar racing to the bottom, the bond market will sell off and interest rates shoot up. And so the hyperinflationary era starts. To listen to the KWN interview click on the link:  King World News Interview     Egon von Greyerz

Thailand considers establishing spot gold exchange Posted: 25 Sep 2013 07:48 AM PDT From the Bangkok Post Wednesday, September 25, 2013 http://www.bangkokpost.com/breakingnews/371322/gold-exchange-mulled Seven local gold futures dealers have proposed that the central bank and capital market regulators set up a spot gold exchange to enhance Thailand as a regional gold trading hub. But Kritcharat Hirunyasiri, the president of MTS Gold, said for such a market to have an edge over others in Southeast Asia, regulations governing the market must be relaxed. The dealers want the Bank of Thailand and capital market regulators to allow the market to trade in US dollars and extend the trading period to be on a par with others that trade around the clock. The spot gold exchange would help to boost the transparency of gold trading and have its own regulator. ... Dispatch continues below ... ADVERTISEMENT Precious Metals Round Table: Where Do We Go From Here? On Tuesday, September 24, Sprott Asset Management will assemble four experts for a live Internet broadcast about the prospects for the precious metals. Participating will be Sprott's CEO, Eric Sprott; financial letter writer and internationally renowned conference speaker Marc Faber; Sprott's chief investment strategist, John Embry; and Sprott Asset Management President Rick Rule. To participate, please visit: https://event.on24.com/eventRegistration/EventLobbyServlet?target=regist... The spot gold exchange would help to boost the transparency of gold trading and have its own regulator. The dealers are MTS Gold Futures, Ausiris Futures, GT Wealth Management, Hua Seng Heng Gold Futures, YLG Bullion and Futures, Classic Gold Futures and Globlex Securities. Mr Kritcharat said the proposal is among several solutions initiated by gold futures dealers to ensure gold dealers do not become involved with foreign exchange speculation. Prasarn Trairatvorakul, governor of the Bank of Thailand, said the central bank is in talks with government agencies including the Finance Ministry to regulate the local spot gold market. Prasarn Trairatvorakul, governor of the Bank of Thailand, said the central bank is in talks with government agencies including the Finance Ministry to regulate the local spot gold market. The move comes after it was found the amount of foreign exchange transactions in gold trading was greater than the actual gold import and export value, indicating potential foreign exchange speculation. The central bank has also requested that gold shops disclose information about their transactions outside the Thai bourse's futures exchange including online gold trading of physical gold. Bank of Thailand data show gold imports in the first seven months this year totalled UScopy0.9 billion or 8.3% of the total gold import value. The high level of gold imports are also blamed for the country's current account deficit at 0.2% of gross domestic product. Last year, Thailand imported $2.4 billion worth of gold or 5.6% of the overall gold import value. "We have submitted a letter to the Bank of Thailand and are ready to disclose all relevant details with the media if it will clear up anything that may remain doubtful. We'd like the central bank to hold a joint press conference with the dealers in order to ensure transparency," said Mr Kritcharat. Kesara Manchusree, managing director of the Thailand Futures Exchange (TFEX), supports the idea of setting up a spot gold exchange, saying it could help to maintain the gold trading value in Thailand and prevent local gold dealers from sending trading orders abroad. At the moment, Thailand is one of the world's major gold trading markets. Ms Kesara admitted the gold futures volume has been considerably subdued in recent months. Gold has fallen sharply, and some gold futures brokers have started sending orders to other gold markets such as the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. "Establishment of such an exchange must be planned well and receive cooperation from all parties involved. Singapore set up its gold spot exchange a year ago with the intention of becoming a regional gold centre and financial hub," said Ms Kesara. * * * Join GATA here: Louis Boulanger Now Seminar Visitors Center, Holy Trinity Parnell Auckland, New Zeland Sunday, October 13, 2013 http://www.gata.org/files/GATAInNewZealand.pdf Gold Investment Symposium 2013 Luna Park Conference Center, Sydney, Australia Wednesday-Thursday, October 16-17, 2013 http://gold.symposium.net.au/ The Silver Summit Davenport Hotel, Spokane, Washington Thursday-Friday, October 24-25, 2013 http://www.cambridgehouse.com/event/silver-summit-2013 Mines and Money Australia Melbourne Conference and Exhibition Centre Tuesday, October 29-Friday, November 1, 2013 http://www.minesandmoney.com/ New Orleans Investment Conference Sunday-Wednesday, November 10-13, 2013 Hilton New Orleans Riverside Hotel New Orleans, Louisiana https://jeffersoncompanies.com/landing/speakers?IDPromotion=613011610080... * * * Support GATA by purchasing DVDs of our London conference in August 2011 or our Dawson City conference in August 2006: http://www.goldrush21.com/order.html Or by purchasing a colorful GATA T-shirt: http://gata.org/tshirts Or a colorful poster of GATA's full-page ad in The Wall Street Journal on January 31, 2009: http://gata.org/node/wallstreetjournal Help keep GATA going GATA is a civil rights and educational organization based in the United States and tax-exempt under the U.S. Internal Revenue Code. Its e-mail dispatches are free, and you can subscribe at: http://www.gata.org To contribute to GATA, please visit: http://www.gata.org/node/16

Dollar CRISIS this Winter, CONFISCATION of Gold & Silver: Alasdair MacLeod Posted: 25 Sep 2013 07:45 AM PDT from FinanceAndLiberty: For most of his 40 years in the finance industry, Alasdair MacLeod has been de-mystifying macro-economic events for his investing clients. The accumulation of this experience has convinced him that unsound monetary policies are the most destructive weapon governments use against the common man. Accordingly, his mission is to educate and inform the public in layman’s terms what governments do with money and how to protect themselves from the consequences. Alasdair believes ​one of the major consequences of unsound monetary policies will come in the form of a currency crisis as soon as this winter.

ed Concerned About Suspicious Gold Trading After FOMC Meeting Posted: 25 Sep 2013 07:33 AM PDT Today's AM fix was USD 1,320.25, EUR 977.67 and GBP 825.36 per ounce. Yesterday's AM fix was USD 1,316.50, EUR 976.05 and GBP 823.43 per ounce Gold rose $1.40 or 0.11% yesterday, closing at $1,322.50/oz. Silver climbed $0.09 or 0.42%, closing at $21.65. At 3:13 EDT, Platinum inched up $7.89 or 0.6% to $1,423.49/oz, while palladium rose $6.75 or 0.9% to $718.75/oz.  Gold's support is at $1,300/oz and a fall below that level could see gold test the next level of support  at the $1,180/oz to $1,200/oz mark. Resistance is at $1,400/oz to $1,434/oz level and a breach of resistance should see gold quickly test the $1,500/oz level (see chart below). Physical demand in Asia is down from the huge levels seen in recent months but remains robust  heading into the peak wedding and festival season in India and China. Bargain hunting was seen again yesterday with prices close to $1,300/oz. Gold in USD with Resistance and Support - 1 Year  (Bloomberg) Demand in China remains robust as seen in premiums for gold of $15 per ounce on the Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE) overnight.  India's gold jewellery exports climbed in August from the previous month on improving U.S. demand before the Christmas season. Indian exporters face tight supplies of gold due to the central banks desperate attempts to tackle the country's rising trade deficit and prevent a currency crisis.  The Federal Reserve is "concerned about suspiciously heavy trading of gold futures" after its meeting last week, that may have been triggered by a premature release of market sensitive information according to Associated Press. In a statement, the central bank said that news organizations that receive embargoed information from the Fed agree to withhold information until the time set for its release. The Fed statement said, "We will be conducting follow-up conversations with news organizations to ensure our procedures are completely understood." After the meeting, the Fed said it would hold off on slowing its $85 billion a month in purchases of U.S. government debt and mortgage debt. That surprised markets and led to a sharp rise in gold and silver prices. Gold in USD - 10 Day (Bloomberg) Two hours prior to the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) release, gold was trading below $1,300/oz but started to gradually tick higher prior to surging higher on heavy volume, minutes prior to the release of the FOMC statement.  FX markets, stock, bond and commodity markets did not see similar large moves. Trading in financial markets is now dominated by automated computer systems, which make trades in tiny fractions of a second that can lead to millions of dollars in profit. Receiving the data early - even by a few milliseconds - can give an unfair advantage to favoured hedge funds or banks. The security of sensitive, market-moving information is becoming an increasing concern due to strong suspicions of recent leaks.  Possible leaks of government data have already led the Labor Department to tighten its procedures for distributing information early to reporters, including the closely monitored monthly employment report. The Labor Department also revoked early access for some media organizations. The Fed also operates media lock-ups when its policymaking committee meets eight times a year, although the procedures are less strict than at the Labor and the Commerce Departments. Fed officials work on an honor system. The Fed's policy statement is distributed 10 minutes early to reporters at their desks in the press room at Treasury. Internet and phone lines are not disconnected, and cellphones are not collected. The Fed has similar procedures for a separate lockup held at its headquarters. Separately, precious metals whistleblower, Andrew Maguire in an interview with Max Keiser described his facilitation of statements given last year to the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) by JP Morgan Chase employees confirming that their company manipulates the precious metal markets.  Maguire cites the sudden dumping of huge amounts of futures contracts at illiquid moments in the gold market as powerful evidence that the U.S. government is intervening to protect the dollar and suppress gold and silver.  Such action is by definition manipulative, Maguire says, and easily could be tracked down by market regulators if they wanted to do so. Maguire says CFTC Commissioner Bart Chilton has told him that if the commission fails to act in its five-year investigation of silver market manipulation by the end of this month, Chilton himself will say something about it.  Maguire cites GATA Secretary and Treasurer, Chris Powell, and his increasingly apt phrase "there are no markets anymore, just interventions." Maguire say that peculiar recent trading activity strongly suggests that certain banks were trading on inside information and knew there would be no taper, hence the surge in prices prior to the release the FOMC minutes after their meeting last week.  Marc Faber has again told CNBC how he favours gold and silver over many other assets. Recently he emphasised the importance of owning actual gold bullion, revealing how he "owns physical gold."  Faber reiterated his favourable view on gold, saying the precious metal was relatively inexpensive. "In the long-run, we have a huge bull-market in gold. Between 1999 and 2011, we peaked at $1,921 and went down to $1,180 and are now slightly above $1,300," he said. "I think gold and especially gold equities are relatively inexpensive and the S&P is relatively high," he added. If you are considering investing in gold or indeed if you are looking to increase your allocation, take this opportunity to download our Comprehensive Guide to Investing In Gold. This complimentary eBook is a must have for anyone thinking of investing in gold.

Fed Concerned About Suspicious Gold Trading After FOMC Meeting Posted: 25 Sep 2013 07:33 AM PDT Today's AM fix was USD 1,320.25, EUR 977.67 and GBP 825.36 per ounce. Yesterday's AM fix was USD 1,316.50, EUR 976.05 and GBP 823.43 per ounce Gold rose $1.40 or 0.11% yesterday, closing at $1,322.50/oz. Silver climbed $0.09 or 0.42%, closing at $21.65. At 3:13 EDT, Platinum inched up $7.89 or 0.6% to $1,423.49/oz, while palladium rose $6.75 or 0.9% to $718.75/oz.  Gold's support is at $1,300/oz and a fall below that level could see gold test the next level of support  at the $1,180/oz to $1,200/oz mark. Resistance is at $1,400/oz to $1,434/oz level and a breach of resistance should see gold quickly test the $1,500/oz level (see chart below). Physical demand in Asia is down from the huge levels seen in recent months but remains robust  heading into the peak wedding and festival season in India and China. Bargain hunting was seen again yesterday with prices close to $1,300/oz. Gold in USD with Resistance and Support - 1 Year  (Bloomberg) Demand in China remains robust as seen in premiums for gold of $15 per ounce on the Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE) overnight.  India's gold jewellery exports climbed in August from the previous month on improving U.S. demand before the Christmas season. Indian exporters face tight supplies of gold due to the central banks desperate attempts to tackle the country's rising trade deficit and prevent a currency crisis.  The Federal Reserve is "concerned about suspiciously heavy trading of gold futures" after its meeting last week, that may have been triggered by a premature release of market sensitive information according to Associated Press. In a statement, the central bank said that news organizations that receive embargoed information from the Fed agree to withhold information until the time set for its release. The Fed statement said, "We will be conducting follow-up conversations with news organizations to ensure our procedures are completely understood." After the meeting, the Fed said it would hold off on slowing its $85 billion a month in purchases of U.S. government debt and mortgage debt. That surprised markets and led to a sharp rise in gold and silver prices. Gold in USD - 10 Day (Bloomberg) Two hours prior to the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) release, gold was trading below $1,300/oz but started to gradually tick higher prior to surging higher on heavy volume, minutes prior to the release of the FOMC statement.  FX markets, stock, bond and commodity markets did not see similar large moves. Trading in financial markets is now dominated by automated computer systems, which make trades in tiny fractions of a second that can lead to millions of dollars in profit. Receiving the data early - even by a few milliseconds - can give an unfair advantage to favoured hedge funds or banks. The security of sensitive, market-moving information is becoming an increasing concern due to strong suspicions of recent leaks.  Possible leaks of government data have already led the Labor Department to tighten its procedures for distributing information early to reporters, including the closely monitored monthly employment report. The Labor Department also revoked early access for some media organizations. The Fed also operates media lock-ups when its policymaking committee meets eight times a year, although the procedures are less strict than at the Labor and the Commerce Departments. Fed officials work on an honor system. The Fed's policy statement is distributed 10 minutes early to reporters at their desks in the press room at Treasury. Internet and phone lines are not disconnected, and cellphones are not collected. The Fed has similar procedures for a separate lockup held at its headquarters. Separately, precious metals whistleblower, Andrew Maguire in an interview with Max Keiser described his facilitation of statements given last year to the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) by JP Morgan Chase employees confirming that their company manipulates the precious metal markets.  Maguire cites the sudden dumping of huge amounts of futures contracts at illiquid moments in the gold market as powerful evidence that the U.S. government is intervening to protect the dollar and suppress gold and silver.  Such action is by definition manipulative, Maguire says, and easily could be tracked down by market regulators if they wanted to do so. Maguire says CFTC Commissioner Bart Chilton has told him that if the commission fails to act in its five-year investigation of silver market manipulation by the end of this month, Chilton himself will say something about it.  Maguire cites GATA Secretary and Treasurer, Chris Powell, and his increasingly apt phrase "there are no markets anymore, just interventions." Maguire say that peculiar recent trading activity strongly suggests that certain banks were trading on inside information and knew there would be no taper, hence the surge in prices prior to the release the FOMC minutes after their meeting last week.  Marc Faber has again told CNBC how he favours gold and silver over many other assets. Recently he emphasised the importance of owning actual gold bullion, revealing how he "owns physical gold."  Faber reiterated his favourable view on gold, saying the precious metal was relatively inexpensive. "In the long-run, we have a huge bull-market in gold. Between 1999 and 2011, we peaked at $1,921 and went down to $1,180 and are now slightly above $1,300," he said. "I think gold and especially gold equities are relatively inexpensive and the S&P is relatively high," he added. If you are considering investing in gold or indeed if you are looking to increase your allocation, take this opportunity to download our Comprehensive Guide to Investing In Gold. This complimentary eBook is a must have for anyone thinking of investing in gold.

The Smell of Collapse is in the Air – Part 2 Posted: 25 Sep 2013 07:32 AM PDT If you believe that total government debt can grow FOREVER and more rapidly than the underlying economy, this article is NOT for you. If you believe that governmental deficit spending, QE, and bond monetization can continue FOREVER without major consequences, this article is NOT for you. But if you are sane enough to know that our current economic policies will produce a "train wreck," read on…

Market Monitor – September 25rd Posted: 25 Sep 2013 07:17 AM PDT Top Market Stories For September 25rd, 2013: Fives Tonnes of Customer Gold Leave the HSBC Vault - Jesse's Café JPMorgan Says "Buy Gold" - Zero Hedge Another Reason to Worry About China - John Rubino Dollar Crisis To Golden Opportunity (YouTube) - Mike Maloney Is This The Start Of China's Gold Miner Buying Spree?

Gold and Silver Posted: 25 Sep 2013 07:12 AM PDT Precious Metals bull market continues and is moving step by step closer to the final parabolic phase (could start in summer 2014 and last for 2-3 years or maybe later). Price target DowJones/Gold Ratio ca. 1:1 Read More...

How One Man Took China's Gold Posted: 25 Sep 2013 07:11 AM PDT The story of China and their obsession with gold has been revived this year as monthly data shows the phenomenal volumes imported through Hong Kong and being traded on the Shanghai Gold Exchange. Read More...

Can Silver and Palladium Tell Us More About the Outlook for Gold? Posted: 25 Sep 2013 07:05 AM PDT Summing up, the recent upward move in both metals was not as bullish as it seemed at first sight and the breakdown in palladium was not invalidated. The implications are still bearish and the bearish case for gold that we made in our previous essay seems to be confirmed by what we see in the silver and palladium markets. At the same time please keep in mind that the analogy to the 2008 decline is still in place and a small move higher should not surprise us (such as the one that we are seeing today).

How one man took China’s gold Posted: 25 Sep 2013 07:03 AM PDT The story of China and their obsession with gold has been revived this year as monthly data shows the phenomenal volumes imported through Hong Kong and being traded on the Shanghai Gold Exchange. However, given how much we gold commentators report on China's inherent love for gold, it's surprising that very few realise that less than one-hundred years ago the country lost thousands of years' worth of reserves.

Episode 3 - From Dollar Crisis To Golden Opportunity Posted: 25 Sep 2013 07:00 AM PDT Welcome to the third Episode of Michael Maloney's Hidden Secrets of Money. Mike was asked to speak at an event in Singapore and to give his opinion on the future for the U.S. Dollar. His presentation was titled 'Death Of The Dollar Standard' and showed very clearly that the Dollar Standard is developing serious cracks, and will likely split at the seams during this decade. How will this affect you? It's not all doom and gloom, as you'll learn from watching the video above. If you have any questions or comments, please leave them below...and don't forget to check out Mike's update to this episode (in your Info Toolkit) once you are done.

Gold Fundamentals Posted: 25 Sep 2013 07:00 AM PDT Speculative Investor

What You Need to Know About the Africa Boom Posted: 25 Sep 2013 06:46 AM PDT Is Africa on your investment radar? It should be. Much of the continent is quietly booming. But it's crucial to understand that Africa's boom is not a "rising tide lifts all boats"' scenario. Africa consists of 55 different economies, most of them woefully undeveloped. The GDP of those 55 countries combined is barely higher than the state of California's GDP. Because Africa's economies are so immature, the current boom is unbalanced. Some regions are prospering, others are not. Some sectors are booming, others are languishing. The benefits of Africa's boom are not accruing equally to all. Our guest contributor this week is Chris Becker, Africa Investment Strategist for ETM Analytics, a Johannesburg, South Africa based market intelligence firm. As Chris will explain, the key to investment success in Africa is to identify who is benefitting from the boom and why. Then and only then can you target exactly where and when to invest. If you're thinking of allocating some of your investment dollars to Africa or may want to in the future, I think you'll find this week's article indispensable. It's a great primer which explains some of the complex phenomena unfolding in Africa today, with valuable insight that only an experienced Africa analyst with local contacts in the region could provide. Enjoy, and see you next week. Dan Steinhart Managing Editor of The Casey Report Be Careful of the Africa Boom By Chris Becker, Investment Strategist, ETM Analytics Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) is booming. Its energy, transport infrastructure, resources, and consumer goods sectors are all growing rapidly. The contrarian-minded investor knows that most booms end with a bust. There are opportunities to earn huge profits in any boom, but protecting these profits—and resisting the urge to over-expand your enterprise in the waning stages of such a boom—is equally important. In order to understand the form the bust will likely take, we must understand the underlying drivers of the boom. Then we can predict what might end it. With that goal in mind, two aspects of SSA's boom are critical to understand. First, most of the investment in resources and infrastructure in SSA is being debt financed by foreigners. Second, governments in the region are not incentivizing private savings and investment and are not increasing economic freedom. For these two reasons, the boom is not translating to the development of manufacturing and production industries. Instead, it is finding expression as a consumer boom. Because very little of the invested capital is being converted into fixed, productive capital that can continue to drive economic growth (and hence consumption), the boom will likely end when consumption peters out, once the resources boom has run its course. For SSA to maintain its consumer boom, economies in the region will need to diversify away from primary extractive industries and move decisively toward investing in manufacturing and industry. It is only through production that a consumer boom can be sustained for very long. So the million-dollar question you need to answer before investing anywhere in Africa is: is infrastructure investment helping the development of manufacturing and productive industry, or is it merely cheapening the flow of minerals out of and final consumer goods into it? As I've suggested, our research indicates that it's mostly the latter (except perhaps for Kenya). Essentially, SSA is being vendor financed, mostly by China and India. Needless to say, such an arrangement is unsustainable and will probably end badly. Let's explore some other aspects of SSA's consumer-driven boom. Political Risk Insurance Doubles in Africa Political risk insurance provided by MIGA, (which stands for "Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency," an agency of the World Bank) has more than doubled to $1.5 billion in the twelve months to end-June 2013, while MIGA's global book is only up 4.5%. Companies buy political risk insurance to protect their investments against the actions of the notoriously unstable governments of Africa. MIGA's director of operations told Bloomberg that even more growth lies ahead. He said, "We are contemplating another record year; it's the strongest project pipeline we've ever seen at MIGA …Power is where we see a lot of growth." Bloomberg also notes that ports and roads are contributing to the strong political risk insurance growth and project pipeline. That the major drivers of MIGA's growth are power, ports, and roads strengthens our view that the bulk of capital investment in SSA is flowing into infrastructure, rather than productive capacity (apart from the burgeoning retail-related real-estate and retail-distribution investment in places like Nigeria and Ghana, to mention two). It's crucial to understand that this type of investment will not by itself boost the long-term economic prospects of the region. It needs to be accompanied by investment and capital accumulation in the manufacturing and production sectors. The investment in power, roads, and ports may ultimately end up lowering the cost of doing business for the mineral and resources sectors that need reliable power supply and efficient transport to ship output abroad. While this is beneficial to enterprises that operate locally, it also lowers the cost to import final consumer goods into the country. Thus we believe this type of investment will most likely undermine industrialization efforts. East Africa Logistics Boom SSA's boom has led to a frenzy to develop ports in East Africa. The ports of Dar es Salaam (Tanzania) and Mombasa (Kenya), located just 400 km apart, are competing to attract traffic. To this end, both are investing to expand capacity and efficiency not only of the ports themselves, but in rail and other transport infrastructure as well. The Kenyan president is spearheading a plan to construct a $13-billion railway line to link Mombasa to the capitals of Uganda and Rwanda (starting in November). Meanwhile, the Tanzania government is spending $10 billion to build a new port northwest of Dar es Salaam. To give the numbers context, these projects will cost a combined 35% of GDP for both economies—not exactly small change. Because neither internal savings rates nor local tax revenues are sufficient to warrant or afford such extravagant infrastructure spending, the Kenya government is racing to raise up to $2 billion through a Eurobond issue. The Tanzanian government plans to issue a $700-million Eurobond in the next year. Easy Money Drives the Boom Easy global money conditions make it cheaper to raise large sums of long-term foreign currency debt from foreigners. Low global interest rates—including SSA interest rates—mislead investors into thinking these long-term projects will be profitable. In fact, the East African logistics projects are looking so lucrative that even Somaliland (which is not officially separate of the Somalian state) wants in on the action. The Kuwaitis are funding a $10-million makeover of two Somalian airports, while a consortium of investors is being assembled to develop a $2.5-billion logistics hub, including an oil pipeline and a port. This project will cost 172% of GDP, all to serve trade flows into Somalia's still socialist neighbor, Ethiopia. That's a red flag if I've ever seen one. These projects are only sustainable as long as global easy money policies remain in place. Therefore it's anyone's guess as to the exact timing of when SSA's boom will unravel. Our best prediction is that the boom will run for a few more years. Here are three things you can expect once the easy money stops: Foreign financing will dry up. Projects that looked profitable at rock-bottom financing rates will be revealed as terrible malinvestments. Sub-Saharan Africans will be left with some shiny new infrastructure and half-built projects—but not the productive capacity they need to lift themselves out of poverty. Chris Becker is an Investment Strategist at Johannesburg based ETM Analytics where he focuses on Macro investment strategies on the African continent. You can follow Chris on twitter @chrislbecker, or email him (chris@etmananalytics.com) for a sample or trial of the daily thematic Africa Insight report that ETM Analytics publishes.

The Denver Gold Forum - Get Ready For Lift-Off Posted: 25 Sep 2013 06:45 AM PDT We are in a totally irrational market. Investors are throwing money at the major exchanges so they can capture the very last 2% of the climb but totally ignoring the best run and most potential resource shares out there. This situation isn't going to last for long. Investors will wake up, they will see great value in stocks and they are going to make gains they never dreamed of before.  -  Bob Moriarity, 321gold.com The Denver Gold Forum is held every September and is considered to be one of the most prestigious gold and silver mining stock conferences in the world.  It attracts mining investment professionals from all over the world. The cost to attend is too high for me to justify attending the entire show, but I always try to set up off-site meetings with the management of the mining companies we own in the fund. Yesterday I met with the top brass (CEO and the Co-Founder) at Exeter Resources (XRA) and the CEO of Alamaden Minerals (AAU).  Without going into the details specific to each company, let me just say that based on what is going on in terms of resource development at each, the stocks are very cheap at $1300 gold as "value" plays.  They are 5-10x home runs if gold does what we all know what it is going to do.  I'll leave it at that and you all can do your own due diligence. I did happen to post an article on AAU last week on Seeking Alpha, which you can read here:  AAU Is An Early Christmas Gift.  I will update it eventually based on my conversation with CEO Duane Poliquin.  But after an in-depth discussion of the potential size and quality of their primary resource in Mexico, AAU is easily worth over $3/share in the context of today's price of gold.  As for XRA, it is sitting on one of the largest untapped gold reserves in the world (30 million ounces) down in Chile.  If the price of gold does what I think it can do in the 12-18 months, it is highly likely that a major producing gold company like Goldcorp will take out XRA at a hefty premium to yesterday's closing price (76 cents/sh).  In the meantime, XRA has nearly 50 cents per share of cash on the balance sheet and a slow burn rate. Having said that, both companies independently commented to me that this year's gold forum was the most well-attended in the history of the conference.  I found this quite surprising, considering that the market sentiment toward gold, silver and the mining stocks is near all-time lows.  XRA specifically said that their one-on-one investor meeting schedule was fully booked this year, vs. last year when it was completely empty.   Both XRA and AAU told me that the majority of the attendees - aside from the usual bankers, analysts and mining stock fund analysts - were "generalist" fund analysts, meaning analysts and portfolio managers who run the large macro-oriented diversified institutional stocks funds.  They said that this cohort of investors was there because they think the mining shares have become too cheap relative to their fundamental value (ya, no shit) and that these large macro funds are looking at taking their allocation to the sector up significantly. One of the primary components of my investment thesis for this sector has always been that eventually the big institutional investment funds would significantly increase their allocation to the mining shares - as in from almost nil to at least 5%.  Let me put the size of this capital flow into perspective.  There's roughly $17 trillion in retirement assets.  5% of this is $850 billion.  The combined market cap of every publicly traded mining stock - in total - is less than the market of each of the individual top 10 companies by market cap in the S&P 500.  So, for instance, the market cap of Intel (INTC) is roughly $117 billion.  Imagine the affect it will have on the smaller cap mining shares when some part of that $850 billion starts to buy into these companies, at least up to the point at which they are no longer "value" plays.  I know that AAU, for instance, is fundamentally worth $3/sh at $1300 gold.  What is it worth at $2000 gold? One last point, for those of you who are not aware of this fact:  since the Fed started QE in 2008, gold and silver have been the best performing asset class.  Also, since the FOMC announced last Wednesday that it was not going to taper, gold has outperformed the S&P 500.  In fact, gold is up 1.4% since then and the SPX is slightly negative.  I know both facts don't seem likely, but that just demonstrates how bad the sentiment is toward the precious metals.  Historically, when the sentiment is in the gutter for any asset class it, has been the best time buy into that asset class with both hands.

The Denver Gold Forum - Get Ready For Lift-Off Posted: 25 Sep 2013 06:45 AM PDT We are in a totally irrational market. Investors are throwing money at the major exchanges so they can capture the very last 2% of the climb but totally ignoring the best run and most potential resource shares out there. This situation isn't going to last for long. Investors will wake up, they will see great value in stocks and they are going to make gains they never dreamed of before.  -  Bob Moriarity, 321gold.com The Denver Gold Forum is held every September and is considered to be one of the most prestigious gold and silver mining stock conferences in the world.  It attracts mining investment professionals from all over the world. The cost to attend is too high for me to justify attending the entire show, but I always try to set up off-site meetings with the management of the mining companies we own in the fund. Yesterday I met with the top brass (CEO and the Co-Founder) at Exeter Resources (XRA) and the CEO of Alamaden Minerals (AAU).  Without going into the details specific to each company, let me just say that based on what is going on in terms of resource development at each, the stocks are very cheap at $1300 gold as "value" plays.  They are 5-10x home runs if gold does what we all know what it is going to do.  I'll leave it at that and you all can do your own due diligence. I did happen to post an article on AAU last week on Seeking Alpha, which you can read here:  AAU Is An Early Christmas Gift.  I will update it eventually based on my conversation with CEO Duane Poliquin.  But after an in-depth discussion of the potential size and quality of their primary resource in Mexico, AAU is easily worth over $3/share in the context of today's price of gold.  As for XRA, it is sitting on one of the largest untapped gold reserves in the world (30 million ounces) down in Chile.  If the price of gold does what I think it can do in the 12-18 months, it is highly likely that a major producing gold company like Goldcorp will take out XRA at a hefty premium to yesterday's closing price (76 cents/sh).  In the meantime, XRA has nearly 50 cents per share of cash on the balance sheet and a slow burn rate. Having said that, both companies independently commented to me that this year's gold forum was the most well-attended in the history of the conference.  I found this quite surprising, considering that the market sentiment toward gold, silver and the mining stocks is near all-time lows.  XRA specifically said that their one-on-one investor meeting schedule was fully booked this year, vs. last year when it was completely empty.   Both XRA and AAU told me that the majority of the attendees - aside from the usual bankers, analysts and mining stock fund analysts - were "generalist" fund analysts, meaning analysts and portfolio managers who run the large macro-oriented diversified institutional stocks funds.  They said that this cohort of investors was there because they think the mining shares have become too cheap relative to their fundamental value (ya, no shit) and that these large macro funds are looking at taking their allocation to the sector up significantly. One of the primary components of my investment thesis for this sector has always been that eventually the big institutional investment funds would significantly increase their allocation to the mining shares - as in from almost nil to at least 5%.  Let me put the size of this capital flow into perspective.  There's roughly $17 trillion in retirement assets.  5% of this is $850 billion.  The combined market cap of every publicly traded mining stock - in total - is less than the market of each of the individual top 10 companies by market cap in the S&P 500.  So, for instance, the market cap of Intel (INTC) is roughly $117 billion.  Imagine the affect it will have on the smaller cap mining shares when some part of that $850 billion starts to buy into these companies, at least up to the point at which they are no longer "value" plays.  I know that AAU, for instance, is fundamentally worth $3/sh at $1300 gold.  What is it worth at $2000 gold? One last point, for those of you who are not aware of this fact:  since the Fed started QE in 2008, gold and silver have been the best performing asset class.  Also, since the FOMC announced last Wednesday that it was not going to taper, gold has outperformed the S&P 500.  In fact, gold is up 1.4% since then and the SPX is slightly negative.  I know both facts don't seem likely, but that just demonstrates how bad the sentiment is toward the precious metals.  Historically, when the sentiment is in the gutter for any asset class it, has been the best time buy into that asset class with both hands.

Gold Volumes "Quiet" on Options Expiry as Hong Kong Prepares for Golden Week Posted: 25 Sep 2013 06:18 AM PDT WHOLESALE gold held unchanged in London on Wednesday, moving around last week's finish of $1325 per ounce as world stock markets and the US Dollar also reversed yesterday's small moves. Silver traded in a 15-cent range either side of $21.70 per ounce. Major government bonds were flat. Crude oil and industrial commodities ticked higher.

China overtakes India as no. 1 gold buyer Posted: 25 Sep 2013 06:04 AM PDT 24-Sep (ResourceInvestor) — Ahead of China’s Golden Week holidays – which officially start next Tuesday – “gold buyers are likely to take advantage of the lower price level to stock up,” says Commerzbank. Traditionally the largest market for buying gold, “[India] this year it looks very likely to be eclipsed by Chinese demand,” writes SocGen analyst Robin Bhar in a new note today, “possibly by as much as 100 tonnes when all areas of fabrication (and hoarding) are taken into account. “Part of the reason for this is the explosion in Chinese demand.” [source]

Spot Gold Trading "Quiet" Ahead of China's Golden Week as Asian Shoppers Chase "Gold-Colored" iPhones Posted: 25 Sep 2013 06:04 AM PDT SPOT GOLD prices held unchanged in London on Wednesday, moving around last week's finish of $1325 per ounce as world stock markets and the US Dollar also reversed yesterday's small moves.   Silver traded in a 15-cent range either side of $21.70 per ounce.   Major government bonds were flat. Crude oil and industrial commodities ticked higher.   In spot gold and bullion futures, "It will likely be a very quiet few days," reckons INTL FCStone in a note, "at least until Friday, when we get some end-of-the-quarter book squaring."   October gold options contracts on the US Comex expire today.   "We remain range bound," agrees spot and contract gold brokers Marex, "but the drop down towards 1300 yesterday and the subsequent good recovery will have deterred the bears for the time being."   However, "speculation that the Feds will begin tapering as early as next month," counters Commerzbank, "continues to pressure the yellow metal."   London's spot gold and silver volumes are likely to be subdued early next week, as trade group the London Bullion Market Association holds its annual conference from Sunday to Tuesday, this year in Rome.   China's long Golden Week holidays are also likely to dent import demand from stockists, dealers report.   Ahead of Golden Week, the government of Hong Kong – a major tourist destination for mainland residents during these annual holidays – has banned "forced shopping" trips, says the South China Morning Post.   Cut-price flights and hotel rooms were previously subsidized by kick-backs from stores to tour operators who brought in large groups, the paper explains.   Almost one million mainland tourists went to Hong Kong in Golden Week 2012, the Wall Street Journal reported last October, "up nearly 25%" from the prior year. But sales of watches and gold jewelry "actually dropped" compared with 2011.   Gold prices for Chinese consumers have now fallen 25% since Golden Week 2012.   Back in wholesale spot gold today, "We're not seeing too much physical demand around," Bloomberg today quotes senior vice-president Afshin Nabavi at Swiss refiner MKS in Geneva.   Elsewhere the newswire reports that for iPhone manufacturer Apple Inc., "bringing together China and gold is a recipe for success" after the US company reportedly asked its suppliers last week to increase production of "gold-colored" plastic casings for the new 5S handset.   Forbes says the same of gold-colored iPhone sales in India – now widely expected to take second place to China in physical gold demand this year.   "An assistant of the Punjab chief minister called me and asked for five gold-colored iPhones," the magazine quotes a distributor for Apple products in the affluent Indian region.   Across in Thailand, meantime, YLG Bullion International Co. – the largest gold importer into the world's 6th largest gold-buying nation last year – says its gold inflows will double in 2013 thanks to the surge in demand caused by gold's 25% price drop.   YLG is also one of seven Thai companies calling for the launch of a spot gold trading exchange, the Bangkok Post reports, aiming to "enhance Thailand as a regional gold trading hub."

Larry Summers Won’t Burn in Effigy Posted: 25 Sep 2013 06:00 AM PDT Today we'll discuss the prospects for gold, silver and oil. But first, let’s discuss Richard Nixon. That is, after he lost the election for governor of California in 1962, he remarked to the assembled news reporters, “You won’t have Nixon to kick around anymore.” Of course, we all know what happened with Mr. Nixon in later years. (Heck, speaking of gold, Nixon took the U.S. off the gold standard in 1971. And it was on Nixon’s watch that oil prices quadrupled in 1973. But I digress….) Nixon’s so-called “last press conference” came to mind last week as I saw news that former Treasury secretary and presidential economic adviser Larry Summers… umm… “withdrew” his name from consideration to be the next chairman of the Federal Reserve. He won’t succeed the current Fed ramrod, Ben Shalom Bernanke. Yes, indeed. Larry Summers withdrew his name. I read it on the Internet, so it must be true. People rioted in the streets against Volcker and burned him in effigy. As things unfolded, Volcker required personal protection due to death threats. Did Summers walk? Or was he “helped” in making his decision? Or just plain pushed? Whatever happened, I’ll bet Summers thought long and hard about whether or not to plunge into that Fed briar patch with his monetary weed whacker. His designated role would have been that of the central bank “fall guy.” That is, the duty Summers won’t seek is similar to the mission of Paul Volcker back in the late 1970s and early 1980s. Volcker was the Fed head in an era of raging inflation and economic stagnation. Volcker gritted his teeth and raised interest rates to nosebleed levels, which smashed inflation down — and tore the guts out of an already weak economy. In an alternative universe, today Summers would have had the unpleasant duty of scaling back on Bernanke’s still-raging $85 billion per month program of quantitative easing (QE). Hey, somebody has to fall on that monetary hand grenade sooner or later. But I guess it’ll be later. And the perp will not be Larry Summers. Evidently, big shots within the Obama administration and the Senate noticed that our grand U.S. economy is less robust than they would like. Plus, we have looming budget battles and political dogfights over taxes and spending. Add in the approaching storm of Obamacare — a job-killing, economy-wrecking tsunami already flooding across the land, from what I can see (long story). So the issue for the Fed becomes whether to throttle QE just now or let the Fed’s money spigot run. Politically, it’s risky to scale back on QE. Or to paraphrase that old line about cancer, there are more people living off it than dying from it. So apparently, policy honchos within the Obama administration told Bernanke to keep the Fed’s signature easy-money programs in place for a while longer. How much longer? Well… through this fall, at least. Then we move into 2014, when the U.S. will hold elections for the entire House and one-third of the Senate. So politically, this is a no-brainer, and QE should last awhile longer. Getting back to Larry Summers, I suspect he knows what happened to Paul Volcker back in the 1980s, when the guy battled America’s inflation problem in a post-Vietnam, oil-shocked economy. In terms of monetary policy, Volcker did what he needed to do. Volcker raised interest rates. He raised them high! I lived through it. It was good to be a saver or lender, but I also recall that Volcker’s high interest rates sure stung if you were the borrower. Ugh. I once signed up for a 16% rate on a used car loan — a beat-up Dodge Omni, no less! I still cringe at the thought. In the larger picture, Volcker was much hated in many quarters. In the Midwest at the time, the steel and auto industries were contracting due to rising global competition. (It’s where the term “Rust Belt” originated.) Volcker’s high interest rates made things worse, leading to more plant and mill closings and attendant layoffs. People rioted in the streets against Volcker and burned him in effigy. As things unfolded, Volcker required personal protection due to death threats. I’ll add this for perspective, though. Back then, the world was in the depths of the Cold War. The West faced a very real and dangerous nuclear threat from the former Soviet Union, which set the overall political tone. Absent that, I doubt that either President Jimmy Carter or even President Ronald Reagan would have gutted it out with Volcker’s high interest rates, even to halt inflation and save the dollar. In other words, no matter how bad things were with Volcker’s high interest rates, the politicians could rationalize it all and think it was better than losing out in the Cold War to the evil commies, if not getting nuked. These days, we lack that comforting choice of alternatives. Summers broke Harvard’s enrollment bank — zeroed the account — for almost seven entire years of operations. Ouch. Thus, Larry Summers ought to breathe sighs of relief at missing out on receiving rivers of unadulterated hatred from entire populations across the now wired-in world, which lacks the former military motivations of the Cold War era. Really, today those flash mobs of “Occupy This or That” can track you down in a heartbeat. So Summers will avoid the fate of personal vilification and destruction that’s otherwise primed and aimed at whoever takes the dirty job of draining a trillion dollars per year of fake Fed liquidity out of the global economy. Indeed, global markets were setting up to sell off at merely the hint of Summers at the helm of the Good Ship Fed. And then? No more Summers. Last week, Bernanke announced more QE. And the markets firmed up — as did gold prices. Also, as per the touching custom of Kabuki theater that is modern Washington, D.C., President Obama graciously accepted the Summers withdrawal. Heck, Mr. President even offered kind words for Mr. Summers’ many years of national service. Now we can only wonder about what might have been with Summers running the Fed. What might he have accomplished? Scaling back QE? We’ll never know. Then again… let’s not overly romanticize Larry Summers. It’s not as if he’s a “doomed son of heroes” out of the tale of Ossian, riding toward the steel. When I think of Larry Summers, I look back to his tenure as president of Harvard, where he left a mixed legacy. For instance, he initiated a long-overdue crackdown on grade inflation — sort of a “QE of grades,” if you will. Bravo! Summers also encouraged several academically challenged Harvard faculty members to seek other opportunities. I won’t mention names, but the matter is not exactly a state secret. Again, bravissimo to Summers! But then Summers oversaw the loss of $2 billion of Harvard endowment funds due to bad interest rate swaps, a subject on which he’s supposed to be an expert — or at least the smartest guy in the room. On that last matter, consider that Harvard’s undergraduate tuition is about $50,000 per year, per student. So Summers losing $2 billion is equivalent to burning a year’s take from 40,000 students. But there are only about 6,000 undergraduate students on campus in any given year. Thus, one could say that Summers broke Harvard’s enrollment bank — zeroed the account — for almost seven entire years of operations. Ouch. Of course, Harvard continues to function, as one might expect of an enduring institution that dates back to 1636. And the U.S. will likely endure as well — QE or no — considering our resilient national history since 1776. No matter who runs the Fed, though — and it won’t be Larry Summers — I think we’re in for a rough ride for a while. At least for now, we won’t have Summers to kick around. What’s the takeaway here? QE, QE and more QE. The Fed is propping up Wall Street, so to speak, while the “real” economy languishes. It’s investable for stock pickers. And buy physical gold. Buy physical silver. Hold oil. The dollar will live through another time of troubles. That’s where this is heading. Regards, Byron W. King for The Daily Reckoning Ed. Note: The U.S. debt load is getting heavier. And the shoulders of the American public cannot prop it up forever. Eventually, it will buckle under the weight of its own unfunded liabilities and global debt obligations. And when it does, we hope you are prepared. That is why we publish The Daily Resource Hunter – to make sure you’re prepared for whatever happens. Sign up for FREE today, and start learning exactly what you can do to protect your wealth no matter what happens. This article originally appeared at The Daily Resource Hunter

AIG's Benmosche Is Sorry For Comparing Bank Bailing Out Taxpayers To A Lynch Mob Posted: 25 Sep 2013 05:59 AM PDT Confirming, once again, that without fail Wall Street executives tend to have irreconcilable sociopathic tendencies in addition to delusions of grandure, AIG's Bob Benmosche found himself promptly under fire from all sides following his interview with the WSJ (reported here) in which he said that outrage over banker bonuses "was intended to stir public anger, to get everybody out there with their pitch forks and their hangman nooses, and all that - sort of like what we did in the Deep South. And I think it was just as bad and just as wrong." There were two main differences: this time around, to pretty much everyone's disappointment, there were no actual lynchings or even anyone going to prison. But more importantly, racial hatred and lynchings in the "deep south" were generally irrational and without reason, which is certainly more than can be said about a banker uberclass that would not exist if it wasn't for taxpayers saving their ungrateful offshore bank accounts. In other words, the hatred at the likes of Benmosche is certainly warranted. Which, together with Elijah Cummings promptly demanding his resignation, is why in less than a day the CEO found himself apologizing for a "poor choice of words." From Reuters: "Simply outrageous. AIG should disavow statement now," tweeted Benjamin Lawsky, the superintendent of the New York Department of Financial Services.   Rep. Elijah E. Cummings, a Maryland Democrat, called for Benmosche to resign.   "I find it unbelievably appalling that Mr. Benmosche equates the violent repression of the African American people with congressional efforts to prevent the waste of taxpayer dollars," Cummings said in a statement.   Benmosche later apologized for the remarks.   "It was a poor choice of words. I never meant to offend anyone by it," Benmosche said in a statement.   Thousands of people, mainly African-Americans and primarily in the South, were beaten, hanged and killed in the 19th and 20th centuries by racist mobs.   In contrast, government officials and activists criticized banks and other financial institutions that handed out bonuses during the financial crisis, despite a still-shaky economy and many of the banks' own roles in causing the economic meltdown beginning in 2008. More importantly, not a single banker was thrown in jail, let alone lynched. What is most ironic is that despite such statements, idiots of this caliber will never grasp just why they are so hated.Finally, speaking of apologies and idiots, here is CNBC's Joe Kernen making fun of Indians, something for which he also apologized subsequently.

AIG's Benmosche Is Sorry For Comparing Taxpayers To A Lynch Mob Posted: 25 Sep 2013 05:59 AM PDT Confirming, once again, that without fail Wall Street executives tend to have irreconcilable sociopathic tendencies in addition to delusions of grandure, AIG's Bob Benmosche found himself promptly under fire from all sides following his interview with the WSJ (reported here) in which he said that outrage over banker bonuses "was intended to stir public anger, to get everybody out there with their pitch forks and their hangman nooses, and all that - sort of like what we did in the Deep South. And I think it was just as bad and just as wrong." There were two main differences: this time around, to pretty much everyone's disappointment, there were no actual lynchings or even anyone going to prison. But more importantly, racial hatred and lynchings in the "deep south" were generally irrational and without reason, which is certainly more than can be said about a banker uberclass that would not exist if it wasn't for taxpayers saving their ungrateful offshore bank accounts. In other words, the hatred at the likes of Benmosche is certainly warranted. Which, together with Elijah Cummings promptly demanding his resignation, is why in less than a day the CEO found himself apologizing for a "poor choice of words." From Reuters: "Simply outrageous. AIG should disavow statement now," tweeted Benjamin Lawsky, the superintendent of the New York Department of Financial Services.   Rep. Elijah E. Cummings, a Maryland Democrat, called for Benmosche to resign.   "I find it unbelievably appalling that Mr. Benmosche equates the violent repression of the African American people with congressional efforts to prevent the waste of taxpayer dollars," Cummings said in a statement.   Benmosche later apologized for the remarks.   "It was a poor choice of words. I never meant to offend anyone by it," Benmosche said in a statement.   Thousands of people, mainly African-Americans and primarily in the South, were beaten, hanged and killed in the 19th and 20th centuries by racist mobs.   In contrast, government officials and activists criticized banks and other financial institutions that handed out bonuses during the financial crisis, despite a still-shaky economy and many of the banks' own roles in causing the economic meltdown beginning in 2008. More importantly, not a single banker was thrown in jail, let alone lynched. What is most ironic is that despite such statements, idiots of this caliber will never grasp just why they are so hated.Finally, speaking of apologies and idiots, here is CNBC's Joe Kernen making fun of Indians, something for which he also apologized subsequently.

Core Durable Goods, CapEx Both Miss; Revised Downward Posted: 25 Sep 2013 05:53 AM PDT Moments ago we got the latest confirmation the much delayed capital expenditures corporate spending spree - aside for airplanes ordered on spec of course - just refuses to arrive. While the headline durable goods print rose by a modest 0.1% in August, and beat expectations of a -0.2% decline, this was offset by a prior month revision lower from -7.3% to -8.1%, in effect netting even worse for the current month, and likely resulting in even more declines in Q3 GDP tracking estimates. More importantly, when stripping away airplane orders (on spec, and which are just a function of the credit environment), durable goods declines -0.1% on expectations of a 1.0% increase, which also was the third consecutive miss in this series in a row. Finally, the two most important metric tracking pure CapEx: capital goods orders and shipments non-defense excluding aircraft, both missed expectations, rising at 1.5% vs 2.0%, and 1.3% vs Exp. 1.5%, respectively. It looks like the Fed (and all those other skeptics who called "bull" on the latest talk of a recovery) was well aware of just how bad things in the economy are, and becoming, when it decided not to taper after all. The chart of durable goods Y/Y, with the boost driven solely by the collapse in Durable Goods a year ago. And Core Capex shipments:

Gold flat on uncertainty over US budget talks, Fed Posted: 25 Sep 2013 05:52 AM PDT 25-Sep (Reuters) – Gold was little changed on Wednesday, struggling to hold gains in the previous session as lack of clarity over the outlook for U.S. economic stimulus offset concern over budget talks in Washington, that could boost the metal. U.S. lawmakers are seeking to approve legislation to keep most government offices running at the end of this month, when budgets are due to expire, but they have yet to find common ground. Investors, surprised by last week’s decision by the Federal Reserve not to trim its bond-buying stimulus, are uncertain over the central bank’s next steps and how to interpret mixed signals from policymakers about the strength of the economy. “The markets don’t really know where to go at the moment,” Saxo Bank senior manager Ole Hansen said. [source]

Fed suspects reporters in premature gold surge Posted: 25 Sep 2013 05:50 AM PDT It's as if the Fed's own agents aren't in the market all the time and the Fed couldn't investigate their trading. * * * Fed Says It Plans Discussions with Reporters Following Reports of Early Trading After Meeting By Marcy Gordon Associated Press via Minneapolis Star Tribune Tuesday, September 25, 2013 http://www.startribune.com/nation/225058572.html WASHINGTON -- The Federal Reserve is concerned about suspiciously heavy trading of gold futures after its meeting last week that may have been triggered by a premature release of market-sensitive information. In a statement, the central bank said Tuesday that news organizations that receive embargoed information from the Fed agree to withhold information until the time set for its release. The Fed statement said, "We will be conducting follow-up conversations with news organizations to ensure our procedures are completely understood." After the meeting, the Fed said it would hold off on slowing its $85-billion-a-month in bond purchases. That surprised markets and led to a day of record highs on Wall Street. Trading in financial markets is now dominated by automated computer systems, which make trades in tiny fractions of a second that can lead to millions of dollars in profit. Receiving the data early -- even by a few milliseconds -- can give an unfair advantage to some firms. ... Dispatch continues below ... ADVERTISEMENT Buy metals at GoldMoney and enjoy international storage GoldMoney was established in 2001 by James and Geoff Turk and is safeguarding more than $1.7 billion in metals and currencies. Buy gold, silver, platinum, and palladium from GoldMoney over the Internet and store them in vaults in Canada, Hong Kong, Singapore, Switzerland, and the United Kingdom, ­taking advantage of GoldMoney's low storage rates, among the most competitive in the industry. GoldMoney also offers delivery of 100-gram and 1-kilogram gold bars and 1-kilogram silver bars. To learn more, please visit: http://www.goldmoney.com/?gmrefcode=gata The security of sensitive, market-moving information has become a concern for federal officials. Possible leaks of government data have already led the Labor Department to tighten its procedures for distributing information early to reporters, including the closely monitored monthly employment report. Labor also revoked early access for some media organizations. The Fed also operates media lock-ups when its policymaking committee meets eight times a year, although the procedures are less strict than at Labor and the Commerce Department. Labor and Commerce officials hold lockups in secure facilities and control the Internet and phone lines. When lockup begins, the connection is shut off for 30 to 60 minutes and reporters receive the embargoed information. Officials turn phone and Internet lines back on when the lockup ends. Reporters are prohibited from bringing cellphones into the lockups. Labor is even more strict. It recently installed lockers outside the room where reporters must stow all personal items -- including their pens and calculators. Fed officials work on an honor system. The Fed's policy statement is distributed 10 minutes early to reporters at their desks in the press room at Treasury. Internet and phone lines are not disconnected, and cellphones are not collected. The Fed has similar procedures for a separate lockup held at its headquarters. * * * Join GATA here: Louis Boulanger Now Seminar Visitors Center, Holy Trinity Parnell Auckland, New Zeland Sunday, October 13, 2013 http://www.gata.org/files/GATAInNewZealand.pdf Gold Investment Symposium 2013 Luna Park Conference Center, Sydney, Australia Wednesday-Thursday, October 16-17, 2013 http://gold.symposium.net.au/ The Silver Summit Davenport Hotel, Spokane, Washington Thursday-Friday, October 24-25, 2013 http://www.cambridgehouse.com/event/silver-summit-2013 Mines and Money Australia Melbourne Conference and Exhibition Centre Tuesday, October 29-Friday, November 1, 2013 http://www.minesandmoney.com/ New Orleans Investment Conference Sunday-Wednesday, November 10-13, 2013 Hilton New Orleans Riverside Hotel New Orleans, Louisiana https://jeffersoncompanies.com/landing/speakers?IDPromotion=613011610080... * * * Support GATA by purchasing DVDs of our London conference in August 2011 or our Dawson City conference in August 2006: http://www.goldrush21.com/order.html Or by purchasing a colorful GATA T-shirt: http://gata.org/tshirts Or a colorful poster of GATA's full-page ad in The Wall Street Journal on January 31, 2009: http://gata.org/node/wallstreetjournal Help keep GATA going GATA is a civil rights and educational organization based in the United States and tax-exempt under the U.S. Internal Revenue Code. Its e-mail dispatches are free, and you can subscribe at: http://www.gata.org To contribute to GATA, please visit: http://www.gata.org/node/16 ADVERTISEMENT How to profit with silver -- and which stocks to buy now Future Money Trends is offering a special 16-page silver report with our forecast for 2013 that includes profiles of nine companies and technical analysis of their stock performance. Six of the companies have market capitalizations of less than $800 million and one company has a market cap of only $30 million. The most exciting of these companies will begin production in a few weeks and has a market cap of just $150 million. Half of all proceeds from the sale of this report will be donated to the Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee to support its efforts exposing manipulation and fraud in the gold and silver markets. To learn about this report, please visit: http://www.futuremoneytrends.com/index.php?option=com_content&id=376&tmp...

Gold lower at 1319.28 (-6.00). Silver 21.57 (-0.153). Dollar retreats. Euro higher. Stocks called lower. US 10yr 2.65% (-1 bp). Posted: 25 Sep 2013 05:41 AM PDT

On the Breakdown in the Correlation Between Gold Price And The Federal Reserve’s Balance Sheet Posted: 25 Sep 2013 05:40 AM PDT by John Aziz, Azizonomics: Of course, we know that correlation is not and does not imply causation. But I think there was an underlying causation to the relationship that we saw, but it was not a superficial relationship of more asset purchases, higher gold prices. I think the causation arose out of self-confirmation; people noticed that the Fed was printing money, and believed that expansion of the Fed's balance sheet would lead to price inflation (in ignorance of the fact that the broadest measure of the money supply was still shrinking in spite of all the new money the Fed was injecting into the economy, and the fact that elevated unemployment, weak demand, and plentiful cheap goods make it very hard for strong inflation to emerge). Many others believed that in the wake of 2008 and the shadow banking collapse, the financial system was fundamentally broken, and that the world might have to return to the gold standard. I myself believed that at the very least the West was in a prolonged Japanese style deflationary depression that in the absence of a return to strong growth might only be broken by very high inflation or a liquidationary crash. Read More @ Azizonomics.com

Fed Concerned About Suspicious Gold Trading After FOMC Meeting Posted: 25 Sep 2013 05:39 AM PDT Gold's support is at $1,300/oz and a fall below that level could see gold test the next level of support at the $1,180/oz to $1,200/oz mark. Resistance is at $1,400/oz to $1,434/oz level and a breach of resistance should see gold quickly test the $1,500/oz level (see chart below). Physical demand in Asia is down from the huge levels seen in recent months but remains robust heading into the peak wedding and festival season in India and China. Bargain hunting was seen again yesterday with prices close to $1,300/oz.

Fed Concerned About Suspicious Gold Trading After FOMC Meeting Posted: 25 Sep 2013 05:10 AM PDT by Mark O'Byrne, Gold Core: India’s gold jewellery exports climbed in August from the previous month on improving U.S. demand before the Christmas season. Indian exporters face tight supplies of gold due to the central banks desperate attempts to tackle the country’s rising trade deficit and prevent a currency crisis.  The Federal Reserve is "concerned about suspiciously heavy trading of gold futures" after its meeting last week, that may have been triggered by a premature release of market sensitive information according to Associated Press. In a statement, the central bank said that news organizations that receive embargoed information from the Fed agree to withhold information until the time set for its release. The Fed statement said, "We will be conducting follow-up conversations with news organizations to ensure our procedures are completely understood." Read More @ GoldCore.com

Frontrunning: September 25 Posted: 25 Sep 2013 04:32 AM PDT JPMorgan eyes $4bn 'pay for peace' deal (FT) Prosecutors Pursue Big SAC Settlement (WSJ) - in the US if you are rich enough, no crime is bad enough Cruz's Defiant Stand Is Also a Lonely One (WSJ); Texas senator speaks for more than 14 hours (FT) Iran Applies Brakes to U.S. Mideast Plans (WSJ) Americans in Poll Doubt Economy Rebound in Defiance of Forecasts (BBG) Big Banks Cut Basel III Shortfall by $112 Billion at End of 2012 (BBG) - the equivalent of 10 bridges to the Kalahari desert Obama's Jabs at Russia on Syria Shows Diplomacy Tensions (BBG) ICAP Staff Face Criminal Charges Tied to Libor  (WSJ) Alibaba Is Said to Shift Target for I.P.O. to U.S. From Hong Kong (NYT) Home gold rush is over (Reuters) Conoco in landmark Alaska drone flight (FT) Real Men Use Mud Masks as Toiletries Win in Guy Grooming (BBG)   Overnight Media Digest WSJ * President Barack Obama argued the U.S. case before world leaders for resolving the Middle East's deepest conflicts, but faced pushback from Iran. * U.S. prosecutors proposed settling a criminal insider-trading case against SAC Capital Advisors for $1.5 billion to $2 billion. * JPMorgan Chase has offered to pay about $3 billion as it seeks to settle criminal and civil investigations by federal and state prosecutors into its mortgage-backed-securities activities. * Applied Materials agreed to acquire Tokyo Electron to create the largest provider of chip manufacturing equipment. The deal to combine two of the semiconductor industry's biggest suppliers is the latest sign of technical and financial pressures confronting the electronics industry. * A former UBS executive, now at Bank of America , is facing criticism for a testimony he gave to a UK Parliament committee about the Libor-rigging scandal. * American International Group Inc's Chief Executive Robert Benmosche sparked a fresh outcry on Tuesday when social media lighted up regarding his comments in a recent interview. In the interview, Benmosche compared the outrage about banker pay during the financial crisis to inflammatory rhetoric from the civil-rights era. * New York Life Investments agreed to pay 380 million euros ($512 million) to buy Dexia SA's asset-management unit, the latest asset sale by the Franco-Belgian lender that has been raising funds to repay government bailout money. * China took a 12.5 percent stake in Russia's Uralkali , moving to secure supplies of potash and casting doubt on whether a global pricing cartel for the fertilizer ingredient could be revived. * General Motors said it issued $4.5 billion in a private debt offering, its first major placement since emerging from bankruptcy protection. * The latest iPhones that launched last week aren't expected to officially go in sale in Russia before December, creating a gray market of imported phones that undermines future sales by local carriers and pressures Apple's market share in the country.   FT U.S. authorities are expected to bring criminal charges against past and present employees of interdealer broker ICAP Plc as early as Wednesday for allegedly manipulating the London Interbank Offered Rate, or Libor, and other benchmark interest rates, people familiar with the matter said. JPMorgan Chase & Co is seeking a $4 billion settlement deal with U.S. authorities for all outstanding allegations of wrongdoings in its mortgage practices, according to people familiar with the matter. New York Life Investments announced on Tuesday that it had agreed to purchase the asset management arm of Dexia SA , the Franco-Belgian bank that had to be bailed out three times by taxpayers, for 380 million euro ($512 million). Applied Materials Inc, the U.S. maker of equipment used to manufacture semiconductors, will buy rival Tokyo Electron Ltd in an all-stock deal valued at nearly $10 billion to extend its lead in one of the world's most technically challenging and capital intensive industries Fiat SpA has warned Chrysler Group LLC that it is reconsidering the benefits and costs of further expanding its relationship with the U.S. automaker because of its concerns over the effects of Chrysler's potential initial public offering. U.S. private equity group Blackstone and the Miller family, who together own UK's largest privately-owned housebuilder Miller Group, are considering a possible stock market debut, according to people familiar with the matter, as the positive sentiment around the country's property market continues to gather momentum.   NYT * The hedge fund SAC Capital Advisors and federal prosecutors have begun talks to settle criminal insider trading charges against the firm, people briefed on the case said on Tuesday. Settlement discussions are at an early stage, and the two sides are far from any agreement, these people said. The government is seeking a guilty plea from SAC and a financial penalty of as much as $2 billion, they said. * The housing market, one of the main drivers of the economic recovery, continues to gain strength despite the drag of rising mortgage rates and other economic headwinds, but some analysts are worried that it may slow in the months ahead. * JPMorgan Chase & Co, seeking to avert a wave of litigation from the government, is negotiating a multibillion-dollar settlement with state and federal agencies over the bank's sale of troubled mortgage securities to investors in the run-up to the financial crisis. * The Obama administration on Tuesday provided the first detailed look at premiums to be charged to consumers for health insurance in 36 states where the federal government will run new insurance markets starting next week, highlighting costs it said were generally lower than previous estimates. * To help prevent the deaths of children hit by cars that are backing up, the Transportation Department said on Tuesday that it would add rear-view cameras to its list of recommended safety measures. The recommendation, though, fell short of a law passed by Congress in 2008 requiring that the department set standards for rear visibility. * New York State, failing to keep pace with technological change and increasingly sophisticated economic crimes, needs to update its laws to help authorities prosecute white-collar wrongdoing, according to a report released on Tuesday by the Manhattan district attorney, Cyrus Vance. * With the chip-manufacturing industry facing more pressure, Applied Materials Inc is aiming to shore up its business in a big way by striking a big takeover of a Japanese company. Applied Materials agreed on Tuesday to buy smaller rival Tokyo Electron Ltd in an all-stock deal that will create a big new producer of semiconductor and display manufacturing equipment. * The top law enforcer in New York State is not done scrutinizing high-speed trading based on early looks at sensitive data. Eric Schneiderman, New York State's attorney general, said on Tuesday that such trading - which he called "insider trading 2.0" - was still a focus of his office, which reached a settlement with Thomson Reuters Corp over the issue in July. * The business of peer-to-peer loans is drawing still more prominent investors. Prosper Marketplace, one of the biggest companies in the business, disclosed on Tuesday that it had raised $25 million in a new round of financing. The new investment was led by Sequoia Capital and includes BlackRock Inc , the giant money manager, as a new backer.   Canada THE GLOBE AND MAIL * A Stanley Cup rioter whom a provincial court judge called "the most serious of any case heard so far" has been sentenced to eight months in jail. Vasilios George Makris, 29, pleaded guilty to participating in a riot and assaulting another person in the June 15, 2011, Stanley Cup riot in downtown Vancouver. * One day after Toronto Mayor Rob Ford celebrated C$660 million ($640.81 million) in federal funding for a Scarborough subway extension, another council battle is brewing over how Toronto will pay for transit expansion. Toronto City Council will be asked next month to decide how to fill a funding gap estimated to be more than C$900 million if it wishes to follow the underground route from Kennedy Station to Sheppard Avenue favored by the TTC and city council. * The Alberta government plans to prohibit building in so-called floodways - designated areas close to rivers - to mitigate damages from future floods. Municipal Affairs Minister Doug Griffiths, charged with leading Alberta's flood recovery effort, said the Progressive Conservatives will introduce legislation this fall forcing municipalities to block development in the most flood-prone zones. Reports in the business section: * The federal government has launched a public relations campaign to beat back criticism of its wireless policy by the Big Three industry players - even as the telecom companies face gag orders that limit what they can say on the topic. * China has bought a chunk of one of the world's largest potash producers, giving the Asian country more control over what price it should pay for the fertilizer - a move that could drag down prices of the mineral and eat into profits of Canada's potash companies. * After 10 years as the lead advertising agency for the Bank of Montreal, Cossette is resigning the account. The decision, announced on Tuesday, comes amid a tumultuous time in bank marketing in Canada. NATIONAL POST * New Democrat member of Parliament Pat Martin accepted a personal loan from the New Democratic Party and numerous donations from labor unions to help pay down debt incurred in a defamation lawsuit over the robocalls case. Documents filed with the federal ethics commissioner by the Manitoba MP earlier this month show he accepted contributions to a legal defense fund from the Canadian Labour Congress, the United Steelworkers and the Canadian Union of Public Employees, and 14 other unions or locals. * The British Columbia New Democratic Party (NDP), shell-shocked by the May election debacle and leader Adrian Dix's intention to resign, got a welcome dose of enthusiasm on Tuesday when four federal members of Parliament from British Columbia said they would consider bids to lead the provincial party. They include Nathan Cullen, the federal NDP House leader who ran a surprising third in the 2012 federal NDP leadership vote won by Tom Mulcair, and Jinny Sims, the firebrand former British Columbia Teachers' Federation leader. * After 17 months in Swiss custody, former SNC-Lavalin Group Inc executive Riadh Ben Aissa is to return to Canada to face fraud, bribery and money laundering charges in relation to a Montreal hospital contract. A ruling handed down by Switzerland's Federal Criminal Court shows Canada's Department of Justice formally sought Ben Aissa's extradition in January. Swiss authorities approved the request in May. Ben Aissa appealed but lost. FINANCIAL POST * Major takeovers are often the ultimate embodiment of capitalist risk versus reward, but this week's $4.7 billion offer for BlackBerry Ltd appears to contain very little new risk for lead investor Fairfax Financial Holdings. * Struggling department store operator Sears Canada Inc shocked the market on Tuesday when it put a decorated former U.S. Marine pilot who fought in the Iraq war at its helm to replace Calvin McDonald, a savvy merchant who revamped the chain's look and retail brands.   China CHINA SECURITIES JOURNAL - The next round of tax reforms in China is likely to play a crucial role in economic reform, according to experts who attended a forum organised by China News Service on Tuesday. A cautious approach should be taken to the uptick in the economy that occurred in July and August. - China's National Development and Reform Commission released a notice on Tuesday, allowing enterprises involved in shantytown renovation and construction to issue corporate bonds. The value of the bond financing is limited to 70 percent of the total investment. 21ST CENTURY BUSINESS HERALD - In the month ended Sept. 22, China Construction Bank Corp , Agricultural Bank of China Ltd, Bank of China Ltd and the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Ltd, all had negative growth in renminbi deposits of over 202 billion yuan ($33.00 billion), according to sources. SHANGHAI DAILY - Chinese military officers will undergo an audit of their real estate, use of power, official cars and service personnel before they are promoted or retire, the Central Military Commission said in a guideline on Tuesday. PEOPLE'S DAILY - A government official needs to act in accordance with his words in order to gain trust, said an editorial in the paper that acts as the government's mouthpiece.   Fly On The Wall 7:00 AM Market Snapshot ANALYST RESEARCH Upgrades Ascena Retail (ASNA) upgraded to Market Perform from Underperform at FBR Capital CF Industries (CF) upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at Atlantic Equities CME Group (CME) upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at Keefe Bruyette Cash America (CSH) upgraded to Neutral from Underperform at Sterne Agee Ctrip.com (CTRP) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Deutsche Bank Dawson Geophysical (DWSN) upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at Raymond James Infosys (INFY) upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at RW Baird Nordstrom (JWN) upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Macquarie Red Robin (RRGB) upgraded to Neutral from Underweight at Piper Jaffray Ross Stores (ROST) upgraded to Conviction Buy from Buy at Goldman Silver Spring Network (SSNI) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Goldman Downgrades Bravo Brio Restaurant (BBRG) downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at Piper Jaffray Carnival (CCL) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at BofA/Merrill Carnival (CCL) downgraded to Reduce from Neutral at Natixis Carnival (CCL) downgraded to Underweight from Equal Weight at Morgan Stanley Dollar Tree (DLTR) downgraded to Buy from Conviction Buy at Goldman Raptor Pharmaceuticals (RPTP) downgraded to Perform from Outperform at Oppenheimer Reliance Steel (RS) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at BofA/Merrill Semtech (SMTC) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at B. Riley Skyworks (SWKS) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at B. Riley Initiations Cirrus Logic (CRUS) initiated with a Market Perform at Northland Securities DSW (DSW) initiated with a Neutral at Goldman DTE Energy (DTE) initiated with a Market Perform at Wells Fargo Facebook (FB) initiated with a Buy at Canaccord Financial Institutions (FISI) initiated with a Buy at Sterne Agee Healthstream (HSTM) initiated with an Outperform at Northland Securities Men's Wearhouse (MW) initiated with a Buy at Goldman HOT STOCKS Attorneys General send letter to FDA urging e-cigarettes regulation Banner Corp. (BANR) to acquire Home Federal Bancorp Capital Bank (CBF) announces stock repurchase of up to $100M of common stock Copart (CPRT) board concludes investigation into possibly converting into a REIT Crown Holdings (CCK) lowers Q3 earnings outlook Genomic Health (GHDX) announces NICE recommendation for Oncotype DX test Krispy Kreme (KKD) signs South American development agreement Noble (NE) board approves plan to separate drilling business Oncothyreon (ONTY) reports Merck Serono decision to continue development of tecemotide SAC Capital reports 5.1% passive stake in SunEdison (SUNE) YPF, Dow Chemical sign $188M shale gas deal EARNINGS Companies that beat consensus earnings expectations last night and today include: Ascena Retail (ASNA) Companies that missed consensus earnings expectations include: Copart (CPRT), Landec (LNDC) Companies that matched consensus earnings expectations include: AAR Corp. (AIR) NEWSPAPERS/WEBSITES AT&T (T), Dish deal off table, WSJ says Alibaba plans U.S. listing after Hong Kong talks end, WSJ reports Clovis (CLVS) gets no buyout interest, Bloomberg says JPMorgan (JPM) in negotiations to settle mortgage allegations, NY Times says JPMorgan (JPM) offers $3B to settle cases, WSJ says Liberty Global (LBTYA) CEO doesn't see Apple selling TV, Bloomberg says Shell picks Louisiana site for LNG project, WSJ says Vale (VALE) weighing more asset sales, Bloomberg says SYNDICATE Chatham Lodging Trust (CLDT) files to sell 3.25M common shares of beneficial interest Evoke (EVOK) 2.1M share IPO priced at $12.00 Foundation Medicine (FMI) 5.889M share IPO priced at $18.00 Idera Pharmaceuticals (IDRA) files to sell common stock and pre-funded warrants QIWI (QIWI) files to sell 8.2M American Depositary Shares for holders Synageva (GEVA) 2.75M share Spot Secondary priced at $56.63 Westar Energy (WR) 8M share Secondary priced at $31.15

Volumeless Drift Lower Continues For Fourth Day Posted: 25 Sep 2013 04:05 AM PDT Early weakness in Asia driven by US-follow thru selling and ongoing concerns about the us fiscal showdowns as well as the debt ceiling, if not by actual news, resulted in a red close in both the Nikkei and SHCOMP, as well as other regional indices such as the Sensex. This then shifted to Europe, where however stocks reversed the initial move lower and are seen broadly flat, with Bunds remaining bid on the back of month-end, as well as coupon and redemption related flows. However the move higher in stocks was led by telecommunications and health care sectors, which indicates that further upside will require another positive catalyst. There was little in terms of fresh EU related macroeconomic commentary, but according to a report published by the European Banking Authority, the EU's biggest 42 banks cut their aggregate capital shortfall with respect to the "fully loaded" 2019 Basel III requirements to €70.4bln as of December 2012. This is amusing since not one European bank has actually raised capital, but merely redefined what constitutes capital courtesy of a liberal expansion of RWA, Tier 1 and various other meaningless definition which works until such time as the perilous European balance kept together by the non-existent OMT, is tipped over. Furthermore, Europe's big banks are on track to meet Basel III capital requirements within six months – five years ahead of schedule – based on the evidence of a new regulatory monitoring exercise. An exercise which just like all prior European stress tests, is already the laughing stock of traders everywhere. Two days after Germany's CDU/CSU celebrated its victory, falling short a majority by five seats, early indications are that the task of finding a suitable ally is not going to be a walk in the park. SocGen reports that the SPD is tipped to enter the fold at some point, but party officials are not hiding their intention to attempt to leverage their coveted position by asking for concessions on a wide range of issues including higher taxes, increased health spending and the introduction of a minimum wage. As a result the EUR has been downhill since the market opened on Monday with a small forecast miss for the German Ifo and lower equity markets adding marginal selling pressure. In other news, senior EU officials refused to back budget policy change that would ease austerity according to an EU official. Going forward, market participants will get to digest the release of the latest Durables Goods, New Home Sales, weekly DoE data and the US Treasury will sell USD 35bln in 5y notes. Overnight News bulletin from Ransquawk and Bloomberg: Treasuries steady, intermediate and long tenors leading yields lower, as week's auctions continue with $35b 5Y notes, yield 1.455% in WI trading; drew 1.624% at August auction, highest in over two years. $33b 2Y notes sold yesterday drew 0.348%, stopping through by about 0.5bp despite lack of outright concession; curve concession helped as 2/5 and 2/10 spreads were narrowest since mid-Aug. Americans are losing faith in the nation's economic recovery even as forecasters expect growth to accelerate, according to a Bloomberg National Poll; the poll also shows that the American public is more alienated from Washington that at any time since the 2011 downgrade of the nation's credit rating China's economy slowed this quarter as growth in manufacturing and transportation weakened in contrast with official signs of an expansion pickup, a private survey showed Europe's big banks are on track to meet Basel III capital requirements within six months – five years ahead of schedule – based on the evidence of a new regulatory monitoring exercise. The likely formation of a grand coalition in Germany may cost Merkel the finance ministry and Schaeuble his post as one of architects of the euro area's austerity policy, according to BofAML economists Japan must raise its sales tax to at least 20% by the time the Olympics come to Tokyo in 2020 to avert a "disaster" in its bond market, according to the head of a panel advising the world's biggest pension fund The largest global banks cut the shortfall in the reserves they'll need to meet Basel capital rules by 82.9 billion euros ($112 billion) in the second half of 2012, leaving a gap of 115 billion euros Sovereign yields, EU peripheral spreads mixed. Nikkei falls 0.8%, leading Asian markets lower. European stocks mixed, S&P 500 futures little changed. WTI crude and copper rise, gold falls Asian Headlines State economist Fan expects China Q3 GDP growth at 7.8%, Q4 GDP growth at 7.6% and FY GDP growth at 7.7%. EU & UK Headlines According to a report published by the European Banking Authority, the EU's biggest 42 banks cut their aggregate capital shortfall with respect to the "fully loaded" 2019 Basel III requirements to EUR 70.4bln as of December 2012. Furthermore, Europe's big banks are on track to meet Basel III capital requirements within six months – five years ahead of schedule – based on the evidence of a new regulatory monitoring exercise. Senior EU officials refused to back budget policy change that would ease austerity according to an EU official. Said EU officials decided proposed budget change needs more discussion. Said EU officials decision means EU budget round in November won't reflect new methodology. German GfK Consumer Confidence (Oct) M/M 7.1 vs. Exp. 7.0 (Prev. 6.9, Rev. to 7.0) French Business Confidence (Sep) M/M 97 vs. Exp. 99 (Prev. 98) Italian Consumer Confidence Index (Sep) M/M 101.1 vs. Exp. 98.5 (Prev. 98.3, Rev. 98.4) - Highest since June 2011. ECB's Hansson says ECB can keep rates low on moderate recovery. Barclays month-end extension: Euro Aggr +0.11y Barclays month-end extension: Sterling Aggr +0.24y US Headlines US Treasury Secretary Lew said market calm over debt limit is greater than it should be. Lew added the Treasury may have less than USD 50bln in mid-October and that less cash is on hand than expected as the debt ceiling deadline looms. A bipartisan majority of the US Senate has demanded Obama address 'currency manipulation' in trade negotiations with 12 Pacific nations. Barclays month-end extension: Treasury +0.06y Equities Stocks in Europe reversed the initial move lower and are seen broadly flat, with Bunds remaining bid on the back of month-end, as well as coupon and redemption related flows. However the move higher in stocks was led by telecommunications and health care sectors, which indicates that further upside will require another positive catalyst. - According to a report published by the European Banking Authority, the EU's biggest 42 banks cut their aggregate capital shortfall with respect to the "fully loaded" 2019 Basel III requirements to EUR 70.4bln as of December 2012. FX USD/JPY trended lower, as USTs remained bid, which in turn encouraged unfavourable interest rate differential rate flows. Consequent USD weakness supported EUR and GBP, however EUR outperformed, which also saw EUR/GBP make a test on the 21DMA line. Commodities Deutsche Bank forecasts WTI crude to average USD 100/bbl in 2013 and USD 98.75/bbl in 2014; forecasts Brent to average USD 110/bbl in 2013 and USD 106.25/bbl in 2014. Separately, analysts at the bank cut 2013 platinum forecast by 4.1% to USD 1520 and 2014 estimate cut 5.1% to USD 1613. Palladium estimate for 2013 lowered by 2.3% to USD 727 and 2014 estimate cut 6.3% to USD 750. Analysts also noted that gold was given temporary lifeline by tapering delay. US API US Crude Oil Inventories (Sep 20) W/W -54K vs. Prev. -252K - Cushing Crude Inventory -395K vs. Prev. -889K - Gasoline Inventories 341K vs. Prev. -641K - Distillate Inventory 485K vs. Prev. -167K Gazprom opposes Rosneft and Exxon Russia LNG plans as competition in Russia's LNG markets intensifies. This was followed by comments from Rosneft that Exxon's Russian LNG project is still intact. The White House says it tried to arrange a discussion between President Obama and Iranian President Rouhani at the UN assembly yesterday. However, Iran said a meeting was too complicated to take place. Iranian President Rouhani said Iran will never seek nuclear weapons and is ready to engage in resultoriented nuclear talks. Rouhani also stated Iran has always had peaceful nuclear goals and that Nuclear weapons have no place in Iran's doctrine. - Rouhani further added Iran poses no threat to the world or region, stating there is no military solution to Syrian crisis and that the goal must be a quick end to killing. - Following Rouhani's UN address, there were comments from Israeli PM Netanyahu that Rouhani speech was 'cynical' and Iran is buying time to develop nuclear weapons capabilities, while Israel minister Steinitz accused Rouhani of playing "game of deception".   * * * As usual, DB's Jim Reid rounds off the overnight summary The S&P 500 closed at -0.26% as it sank further below the pre-FOMC levels. One of the bright spots in US equities were homebuilders which managed to record a gain of 2.26% after strong quarterly earnings reports from home construction companies Lennar (+4.2%) and KB Home (+4.3%). Interestingly, Lennar's CEO projected that supply would still fall short of demand by a wide margin despite a significant increase in building activity and the rise in rates over the last few months. Lennar's backlog of houses ordered but not yet finished – a key forward looking indicator for the industry - rose 32%yoy to 5,958 in units and 53% to $1.9 billion in value, according to Reuters. Back on the macro side, the data flow was a little mixed. The Case-Schiller 20 city price index rose 0.6%, lower than expectations of 0.8%. There was a weaker than expected US consumer confidence report (79.7 vs 79.9 expected). However the labour market component of the survey improved as both jobs plentiful edged higher (11.5 vs. 11.3 previous) and jobs hard-to-get moved lower (32.7 vs. 33.3). The Richmond Fed (0 vs 12 expected) disappointed mirroring the previous day's decline in the flash US PMI. US treasuries remained fairly well bid on Tuesday as yields fell for the 11th time in 13 days. The 10yr yield closed at 2.655% (or -4.5bp) which is the lowest level since August 12th. The lower treasury yields saw credit outperform (CDX IG -1.25bp) despite the weakness in US equities. Indeed government bonds on both sides of the Atlantic performed well yesterday, particularly gilts where 10yr yields firmed by 12bp following strong demand for the new 2068 index-linked which were the longest dated ever issued by the UK. It's scary that I'll be 94 (hopefully) when they mature. The news sparked short covering demand in gilts, which were further boosted by comments from the BoE's Tucker who reaffirmed the bank's commitment to current forward guidance. It's a fairly mixed session for Asian equities this morning with gains across the ASX200 (+0.9%) and Hang Seng (+0.3%) while the Nikkei (-0.4%) trades lower. The USD index is up around 0.1% which is weighing on EM currencies such as the PHP (-0.3%), THB (-0.2%) and INR (-0.15%). The 4.5bp rally in USTs yesterday is helping Asian credit spreads grind tighter overnight, despite a raft of new issuance in recent days. On the subject of new issuance, the recent strength in treasuries is helping the market absorb a wave of new bond supply globally, including a bond deal from General Motors yesterday. The US automaker was able to take advantage of a rating upgrade back up to investment grade territory by Moodys to price $4.5bn in bonds. The deal was underpinned by a jumbo order book in excess of $25bn. The company says the proceeds from the 5yr, 10yr and 30yr issuance will be used to buy back higher yielding preferred shares and notes in its capital structure. This was the first major debt private offering for the company since emerging from bankruptcy protection (WSJ). Amid the continuing US budget debate, Moody's provided some reassuring words saying that that a debt ceiling impasse and a government shutdown are unlikely to affect the US sovereign rating. Note that Moody's is the only major rating agency that still rates the US government at the equivalent of AAA with a stable outlook. Fitch also rates the US government at AAA but has a negative outlook while S&P is at AA+ with a stable outlook. On the data docket today are consumer confidence readings in Germany and Italy and the latest business confidence and jobseeker numbers in France. The US will print the latest durable goods orders, mortgage applications and new home sales data. Durable goods are the most interesting after big falls last month. However the first month of the quarter (last month's reading) have often been very weak in recent years only for the numbers to bounce back. We'll see if this is a repeat of this trend. We'll now end on recapping the upcoming US fiscal issues facing us over the next few weeks. First up is the need for Congress to pass a continuing resolution before the US government shuts down on October 1st (the start of the next fiscal year). After that the US is set to hit its $16.7tr statutory debt limit around mid-October. On the government shutdown, as it stands the Republican-dominated House has passed a bill funding the government but stripping the Affordable Care Act ("Obamacare") of funding, something unacceptable to the Democrat-dominated Senate. DB's Frank Kelly believes that the Senate will send the bill back to the House having stripped it of the language defunding Obamacare and funding the government through to December 15th and that after some posturing the House will pass this continuing resolution on time to avoid a government shutdown. The debt ceiling debate is a bit more complicated and the interesting thing to watch for will be what the House demands (and gets) from the Senate and White House to raise the debt limit. Again we turn to Frank for some insight here. He believes one (or both) of two things will likely be demanded by the House: (a) a provision delaying the implementation of (rather than defunding) Obamacare by one year. Politically this is popular even with those Democrats facing re-election in 2014 who'd rather see this sticky issue off the table until after the election. (b) a provision inserted into the debt ceiling increase which instructs the House and Senate to allow a simple up or down vote on comprehensive tax reform before the end of the year. The exact details of what this reform would entail are unknown but it would likely be big and might be attached to the next continuing resolution which, if all plays  out as above, would be needed by December 15th. Frank stresses this is a very complicated and fluid situation. It will certainly be one to watch and over the coming weeks. With these issues we suspect that the market will take the view that these issues are major but will likely get pushed back like they did in Summer 2011 and last New Year. Fiscal fear fatigue has set in. Indeed given these last two events this is probably the most rational way to think about it but one of  these days we will probably see one of these low probability/high impact events go the other way. This is why we need to be watchful.

China Alone is Buying Enough Gold to Make Prices Soar Posted: 25 Sep 2013 03:00 AM PDT by Andy Hoffman, MilesFranklin.com: Last month, I reported from the "Middle Kingdom" that Chinese retail gold demand was every bit in person what we read on paper.  The public DOES NOT STOP buying no matter what the price – as they understand it is REAL MONEY; and now that the Chinese government has been actively encouraging citizens to accumulate Precious Metals – for the past four years – the "proof is in the pudding"; as not only are 2013 Chinese gold imports on the verge of DOUBLING versus 2012… Read more @ MilesFranklin.com

One more sell-off in the gold and silver before we will take off, the weak hands are getting out Posted: 25 Sep 2013 02:00 AM PDT by Gijsbert Groenewegen, SilverBearCafe.com: The surprise “no tapering” decision of the Fed basically means that the economy is not growing whilst Pimco’s Gross believes it is a handoff to Yellen. If Gross is right you have to wonder what is more important the economy or Yellen! Anyway if is Yellen she will need it! The no tapering confirms my view that the economy is fragile, it doesn’t have any traction, there is no sustainability, the stimulus has no effect, in fact it is becoming counter productive. In short the Fed is #$@%&* scared what higher rates could do to the economy. And as a result of the unexpected Fed’s decision we saw the ultimate risk assets move strongly, gold surged $61.70, or 4.7%, to settle at $1,369.30 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange, marking its highest close since September 9. The gains were the largest for a single session since early 2009. Silver posted its biggest rally in almost five years with its climb of 8%. Read More @ SilverBearCafe.com

World Gold Council elects Randall Oliphant as new chairman Posted: 25 Sep 2013 01:00 AM PDT The World Gold Council has announced the appointment of Randall Oliphant as its new Chairman. Mr Oliphant is Executive Chairman of the Canadian gold producer New Gold Inc. and succeeds Ian Telfer, Chairman of Goldcorp Inc., who steps down from the Board.

Physical Gold Bar and Coin Sales Soar 78% To All Time High Posted: 25 Sep 2013 12:36 AM PDT Purchases of physical gold have been hitting new all time records.  Demand has been fueled by the recent pullback in gold prices and the massive amount of money printing being conducted by central banks in Europe, Japan and the United States.  The recent decision by the Federal Reserve to postpone any curtailment of its $85 [...]

Fives Tonnes of Customer Gold Leave the HSBC Vault Posted: 24 Sep 2013 11:20 PM PDT On Monday 173,582 ounces, or roughly five tonnes, of customer gold was withdrawn the HSBC warehouse. This takes the total gold in all of the COMEX warehouses to a new low of 6,860,160 ounces in 100 oz. bars. The portion of this that is deliverable or 'dealer gold' remains at 672,000 ounces.

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