Gold World News Flash

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• Secure Your Silver Stash – The Idiot Safe
• The Weekend Vigilante
• World's Biggest Retirement Fund Considers Selling Its Japanese Bonds
• Why price inflation will take off
• Alasdair Macleod: Why price inflation will take off
• Buy Silver – the War Against the China Bears Begins
• Why the stock market rallies despite worries
• Interested in Buying Physical Gold and/or Silver? This Site Provides Everything Needed to Buy Intelligently
• Wheat - What's Up With Wheat Being Down So Much? A Technical Treatise For All Markets
• GoldMoney article: why price inflation will take off.
• The Housing Recovery Myth
• Lower Euro Gold & Stronger Euro As ECB Balance Sheet Is Shrinking
• Copper - Upside Breakout. Gold/Silver To Follow?
• U.S. Gov't May Want to “Help” You Manage Your Retirement Account! Really?
• AMERICAN PIE (Oldie but Goodie)
• Finally the Final Bottom in Gold Stocks Is Coming- Finally!
• Copper – Upside Breakout. Gold/Silver To Follow?
• Finally the Final Bottom in Gold Stocks Is Coming – Finally!
• Germany Repatriates Its Gold
• Gold And Silver - Pushing On A String Amidst A Shaky Environment
• Own Physical Gold & Silver As Currency Wars Will Destroy Our Money
• Debt Delinquancy - Seamless Collapse Economics
• SILVER SMASHING SALES RECORDS & Government Lies – Jeff Nielson – YouTube
• Miners Are Just Doing What Miners Do
• QE3 – Pay Attention If You Are in the Real Estate Market
• Liam Halligan: Falling yen set to spark renewed currency wars
• Head & Shoulder Tops in Gold and Silver Stocks ..Is the Fat Lady Singing ?

Secure Your Silver Stash – The Idiot Safe Posted: 03 Feb 2013 09:14 PM PST from Petros7373:

The Weekend Vigilante Posted: 03 Feb 2013 09:00 PM PST by Jeff Berwick, Dollar Vigilante: Happy Ayn Rand day, Today would have been Ayn's 108th birthday. I wonder if she ever thought that the fictional community in her book Atlas Shrugged would actually come to exist in real life as it has at Galt's Gulch Chile? Atlas Shrugged is one of the most influential books ever written. It was situated between the Bible and M. Scott Peck's The Road Less Traveled as the book that made the most difference in the lives of 5,000 Book-of-the-Month club members surveyed and on my anarcho-capitalist podcast, Anarchast, it has been mentioned in almost every interview with over 50 anarchists as being a book that led them down the path to anarchism. In the book, most of the world's most productive people went on strike against a system that punishes them for being productive. They absconded to Colorado, which at the time of writing, in 1957, probably seemed like a good "out of the way" place. Read More @ Dollar Vigilante

World's Biggest Retirement Fund Considers Selling Its Japanese Bonds Posted: 03 Feb 2013 08:23 PM PST While in the past 3 months both the USDJPY and the Nikkei index have soared on the same vague mix of promises (than can never be delivered), and threats (by central bankers, which work only as long as they remain purely abstract and are not acted upon), one security that has barely budged are Japanese bonds: without doubt the fulcrum security that will put a premature end to Abe's latest attempt to reflate an economy, whose total debt is a ridiculous 2000% of annual public revenues, and which will spend half of its annual tax income on interest expense if rates merely double from their record low levels. Until now: Bloomberg reports that Japan's Government Pension Investment Fund: the largest retirement fund in the world overseeing 108 trillion yen ($1.16 trillion), and historically the biggest buyer of Japanese bonds, "will begin talks in April about whether to reduce its 67% allocation to domestic bonds." Read: sell, which may be why we have already seen a rather steep move across the JGB complex overnight, because one the largest player in the space moves, everyone else follows as nobody wants to be the last seller left. And once the selling begins, logically so does the countdown to the end of Japan's latest reflation attempt, as like it or not, Japan can not afford rising rates, no matter how high it blows the stock market bubble (which by the way is unchanged in non-yen terms), as the alternative is a full blown banking sector crisis, coupled with a public funding crisis. And also because this time is no different from all the other times Japan has done just this. Only on no previous occasions did Japan have some JPY1 quadrillion in public debt, or nearly 250% in debt/GDP. From Bloomberg: The GPIF, as the fund created in 2006 is known, didn't alter the structure of its holdings during the worst global financial crisis in 80 years or in response to the 2011 earthquake and nuclear disaster. Talks to shift its positions come as Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and the Bank of Japan pledge to restore economic growth and spur inflation, which will mean higher interest rates, Mitani said.   "If we think about the future and if interest rates go up, then 67 percent in bonds does look harsh," Mitani, who was an executive director at the Bank of Japan when it bought shares from banks in 2002, said. "We will review this soon. We will begin discussions for this in April-to-May. Any changes to our portfolio could begin at the end of the next fiscal year."   GPIF, one of the biggest buyers of Japanese government bonds, held 69.3 trillion yen, or 64 percent of total assets, in domestic bonds at the end of September, according to its latest quarterly financial statement. That compares with 12 trillion yen, or 11 percent, in Japanese stocks. The asset manager had 9.6 trillion yen, or 9 percent of its portfolio, in foreign bonds and 12.6 trillion yen, or 12 percent, in overseas stocks. This is a tectonic shift for an asset allocator who has been steadfast in what it buys: GPIF is the biggest pension fund in the world by assets under management, according to the Towers Watson Global 300 survey in August, followed by Norway's government pension fund.   The portfolio structure has been broadly unchanged since 2006 when it was formulated with an outlook for consumer prices to rise 1 percent annually. Instead, they have fallen.   "The portfolio was based on a prerequisite of things such as long-term interest rates at 3 percent on average for the next 100 years," Mitani said. "Whether this is good will be a possible point of discussion." Good luck with that because momentum plays and chasing "hot money flows" always, without fail, end up with a Hollywood ending. As for the "100 year forecast" confusion, it stems from the glaring contradiction that is debt monetization by the BOJ coupled with a government mandate to crush the Yen. The fear is that at least for the time being, if not in the long-term, the latter will overtake the former. "JGBs were how we made money over the past 10 years," Mitani said. "The BOJ said that they are increasing buying bonds, but they're also putting power into lowering interest rates. If the economy gets better, then long-term interest rates like a 10-year yield at less than 1 percent are unlikely." Yet where the real comedy is about to begin is that instead of investing people's retirement money in at least modestly safe securities which the BOJ openly monetizes, the GPIF will focus on some riskier assets: "The fund may increase holdings in emerging market stocks and is evaluating alternative assets, he said." Good luck with the former: Japan will be only some 10 years behind the curve. As for "alternative assets", if this includes gold, prepare for liftoff as all other retirement fund managers across the world, who have a blended allocation to gold somewhere between 0% and 0.5%, piggyback on Japan's example. At the end of the day, however, none of the above matters. Japan's Yen will fall a little more, its equities will rise, but all that matters is when and if the bond tumbles. Once that happens, and once Japan's leaders take a look at the chart below, first presented in "Japan's WTF Chart", everything will be quickly put back in its original place, Abe will be "retired", and this latest experiment in ending Japan's self-sustaining three decade long liquidity trap will be promptly forgotten.

Why price inflation will take off Posted: 03 Feb 2013 08:00 PM PST from Gold Money: There are key aspects of economics that neo-classical monetarists do not apparently comprehend; the most important, given their job-description, being the relationship between money and prices. They are like motorists who drive on the basis of the chaos and destruction viewed in the rear-view mirror. This is what happens when you use historic prices to guide monetary policy. We are all aware, through application of logic if nothing else, that if you increase the quantity of money, prices will increase as that extra money is spent. What is less appreciated is that prices can change dramatically due to shifts in preference for money over goods. An illustration of this was the fall in prices during the financial crisis five years ago, when over-extended consumers responded to the global banking crisis. Government interventions in capital goods markets, such as for residential property and automobiles, were urgently implemented to stop prices collapsing. Shifts in money-preference can be very dramatic, as that episode showed. Read More @ GoldMoney.com

Alasdair Macleod: Why price inflation will take off Posted: 03 Feb 2013 07:38 PM PST 9:38p ET Sunday, February 3, 2013 Dear Friend of GATA and Gold: In commentary tonight GoldMoney research director Alasdair Macleod makes the case for inflation. "Five years ago," Macleod writes, "there was a large one-off shift in favor of money, which suggests that the next large shift will be away from money -- not because suddenly we are all going to like spending again, but because we will like money even less." Macleod's commentary is headlined "Why Price Inflation Will Take Off" and it's posted at GoldMoney's Internet site here: http://www.goldmoney.com/gold-research/alasdair-macleod/why-price-inflat... CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc. ADVERTISEMENT Opinion Around the World Is Changing in Favor of Gold -- Find Out Why When Deutschebank calls gold "good money" and paper "bad money". ... http://www.gata.org/node/11765 When the president of the German central bank, the Bundesbank, pays tribute to gold as "a timeless classic". ... http://www.forbes.com/sites/ralphbenko/2012/09/24/signs-of-the-gold-stan... When a leading member of the policy committee of the People's Bank of China calls the gold standard "an excellent monetary system". ... http://www.forbes.com/sites/ralphbenko/2012/10/01/signs-of-the-gold-stan... When a CNN reporter writes in The China Post that the "gold commission" plank in the 2012 Republican platform will "reverberate around the world". ... http://www.thegoldstandardnow.org/key-blogs/1563-china-post-the-gop-gold... When the Subcommittee on Domestic Monetary Policy of the U.S. House of Representatives twice called on economist, historian, and gold standard advocate Lewis E. Lehrman to testify. ... World opinion is changing in favor of gold. How can you learn why and what it will mean to you? Read the newly updated and expanded edition of Lehrman's book, "The True Gold Standard." Financial journalist James Grant says of "The True Gold Standard": "If you have ever wondered how the world can get from here to there -- from the chaos of depreciating paper to a convertible currency worthy of our children and our grandchildren -- wonder no more. The answer, brilliantly expounded, is between these covers. America has long needed a modern Alexander Hamilton. In Lewis E. Lehrman she has finally found him." To buy a copy of "The True Gold Standard," please visit: http://www.thegoldstandardnow.com/publications/the-true-gold-standard Join GATA here: California Resource Investment Conference Saturday-Sunday, February 23-24, 2013 Hyatt Regency Indian Wells Resort and Spa Palm Desert, California http://www.cambridgehouse.com/event/california-resource-investment-confe... * * * Support GATA by purchasing DVDs of our London conference in August 2011 or our Dawson City conference in August 2006: http://www.goldrush21.com/order.html Or by purchasing a colorful GATA T-shirt: http://gata.org/tshirts Or a colorful poster of GATA's full-page ad in The Wall Street Journal on January 31, 2009: http://gata.org/node/wallstreetjournal Help keep GATA going GATA is a civil rights and educational organization based in the United States and tax-exempt under the U.S. Internal Revenue Code. Its e-mail dispatches are free, and you can subscribe at: http://www.gata.org To contribute to GATA, please visit: http://www.gata.org/node/16 ADVERTISEMENT Get the real story about the precious metals from the Sprott Precious Metals Round Table Now you don't have to travel to attend a financial conference to hear Sprott Asset Management's precious metals experts -- Eric Sprott, Rick Rule, and John Embry. They'll be holding a round-table discussion via the Internet at 2 p.m. ET Tuesday, February 12, and you can be part of it. Among their topics: -- Why are precious metals such a compelling investment opportunity? -- Why are non-G7 central banks buying gold? Do Western central banks have any left? -- Why are investors buying as much silver as gold in dollar terms? What does this mean for the price of silver? -- Is the growing supply deficit of platinum and palladium going to push their prices higher? To register for this Internet conference and participate from the comfort of your own home or office, please visit: http://w.on24.com/r.htm?e=579230&s=1&k=70B829852A33CD255CC2A43ED63D18D0

Buy Silver – the War Against the China Bears Begins Posted: 03 Feb 2013 06:30 PM PST by Dr. Alex Cowie, SilverBearCafe.com: Watch out! Silver is finally looking ready for action. And this is as much to do with what my mate and regular Money Morning editor, Kris Sayce, now calls 'The Doc's war against the China Bears'. In case you missed it, I've kicked off the year by saying the China bears are about to get smoked. But sounding my China-Bull 'battle-cry' doesn't just mean that industrial metals are on the menu. Because a resurgent Chinese economy is also good for precious metals, including a long-time favourite of mine: silver. Read More @ SilverBearCafe.com

Why the stock market rallies despite worries Posted: 03 Feb 2013 06:00 PM PST by Clif Droke, Gold Seek: The fiscal cliff, tax increases, the debt ceiling, missed earnings – investors certainly have had much to worry about lately. So why in spite of these fears has the market continued to rally? There's a Wall Street bromide that succinctly answers this question: "Bull markets climb a wall of worry." Fear tends to fuel higher prices when internal momentum is rising due to short covering and other technical factors. It's normally not until everyone has entered the market that the market finally tops out. Many are wondering why the market has been so strong in the face of all these potential pitfalls. The best answer I've heard for this question to date is that the U.S. stock market is the "best horse at the glue factory" so to speak. Read More @ GoldSeek.com

Interested in Buying Physical Gold and/or Silver? This Site Provides Everything Needed to Buy Intelligently Posted: 03 Feb 2013 05:22 PM PST < A HREF=”http://adclick.g.doubleclick.net/aclk?sa=L&i=BX-WlaLkOUbTGJ8mwwQG7pYDgAayf8Z4DAAAAEAEgvp6HFTgAWJTgtOVKYP2gmYHoA7IBD2NvbW1vZGl0eWhxLmNvbboBCjMwMHgyNTBfYXPIAQnaAY8BaHR0cDovL2NvbW1vZGl0eWhxLmNvbS8yMDEzL2luc2lkZS1hcG1leC1hLXBoeXNpY2FsLWdvbGQtZGVhbGVyLz91dG1fc291cmNlPUNvbW1vZGl0eStIUSZ1dG1fY2FtcGFpZ249Mzg1ODM2MDAyNi1SU1NfQ0hRX1BVTFNFJnV0bV9tZWRpdW09ZW1haWzgAQLAAgLgAgDqAhVjaHFfY29udGVudF9yZWN0YW5nbGX4AoHSHpADpAOYA-gCqAMB0ASQTuAEAaAGFg&num=0&sig=AOD64_2k2iWYpX6ZBWNuBp7UDyoaphFGmA&client=ca-pub-0327036773695465&durl=http://ad.doubleclick.net/jump/N6103.277868.ETFDATABASE/B6504666.5;sz=300×250;ord=1950909305?”>< IMG SRC=”[url]http://ad.doubleclick.net/ad/N6103.277868.ETFDATABASE/B6504666.5;sz=300×250;ord=1950909305?”[/url] BORDER=0 WIDTH=300 HEIGHT=250 ALT=”Advertisement*...

Wheat - What's Up With Wheat Being Down So Much? A Technical Treatise For All Markets Posted: 03 Feb 2013 05:19 PM PST What could wheat possibly have in common with gold/silver, or the SP, or interest rates? When put into chart form, they are all the same: Bars that show highs, lows, closes, and volume. Market psychology affects all players, regardless of market. Read More...

GoldMoney article: why price inflation will take off. Posted: 03 Feb 2013 05:00 PM PST The following article has been posted at GoldMoney, here. Why price inflation will take off 2013-FEB-03 There are key aspects of economics that neo-classical monetarists do not apparently comprehend; the most important, given their job-description, being the relationship between money and prices. They are like motorists who drive on the basis of the chaos and destruction viewed in the rear-view mirror. This is what happens when you use historic prices to guide monetary policy. We are all aware, through application of logic if nothing else, that if you increase the quantity of money, prices will increase as that extra money is spent. What is less appreciated is that prices can change dramatically due to shifts in preference for money over goods. An illustration of this was the fall in prices during the financial crisis five years ago, when over-extended consumers responded to the global banking crisis. Government interventions in capital goods markets, such as for residential property and automobiles, were urgently implemented to stop prices collapsing. Shifts in money-preference can be very dramatic, as that episode showed. Since that time, preferences for money have not changed much. Despite the massive expansion of money-quantities in the major economies, prices for goods have been generally stable, though government CPI statistics tend to be self-serving rather than reliable price inflation indicators. Instead of fuelling price increases, money has instead been applied to reducing indebtedness, or to speculation in the capital markets. What is important to understand is five years ago there was a large one-off shift in favour of money, which suggests that the next large shift will be away from money; not because suddenly we are all going to like spending again, but because we will like money even less. This is not to say that some of us won’t become more cautious, rather the reverse. If the economic outlook deteriorates it will be because we are cutting back spending on inessential goods. It is just that the price effect of this reduced spending is unlikely to be anything like as dramatic as what we saw at the time of the banking crisis. So where will a reduced preference for money come from? The clue is from all that extra money that has been channelled into capital markets since the banking crisis. When the bullish factors for government bonds and other financial assets are replaced by the prospect of rising interest rates and falling prices, there will be a rush for the exit across a wide range of markets. And here the reaction of the monetarists at the central banks will be crucial. It is a virtual certainty that collapsing bond and other asset prices will set off a new crisis by undermining the collateral backing the entire banking system. Central banks will see no alternative to keeping interest rates as low as possible, accelerating the expansion of the money-quantity to prevent a new systemic crisis. This is true for all major currencies, not just the US dollar. Cash will therefore be an unattractive alternative to owning financial assets, which leaves vital commodities and monetary hedges, such as precious metals, as the only refuge for monetary capital. Today’s lull in the flow of bearish news will probably be over in a few months. It only serves to conceal the repositioning of the sovereign wealth funds and of other prescient institutional investors, seeking to protect themselves, ahead of this increasingly certain event. Alasdair Macleod Head of research, GoldMoney Alasdair.Macleod@GoldMoney.com Twitter @MacleodFinance

The Housing Recovery Myth Posted: 03 Feb 2013 02:44 PM PST What is needed for a sound expansion of production is additional capital goods, not money or fiduciary media.  The credit boom is built on the sands of banknotes and deposits. It must collapse. If the credit expansion is not stopped in time, the boom turns into the crack-up boom; the flight into real values begins, and the whole monetary system founders.  The final outcome of the credit expansion is general impoverishment.   - Ludwig Von Mises, "Human Action" I've been talking about doing a write-up on the housing market. Most of this was written before the latest housing numbers for December were released, which show the high probability that this brief housing market bounce is over.  The thesis is that a slight housing market bounce has been generated by $100's of billions in Government and Federal Reserve monetary stimulus and Government policy implementation with respect to mortgage underwriting and refinancing.  But when you analyze the critical variables underlying the housing market, it leaves no doubt that the market is still fundamentally damaged and overvalued, with a very high probability that market has another serious decline ahead of it. Furthermore, housing stocks have completely dislocated from market fundamentals and investors who hold them risk a significant loss of capital once the equity market discounts the underlying fundamentals outlined below. You can read my analysis here:   The Housing Market Recovery Is A Complete Myth

Lower Euro Gold &amp; Stronger Euro As ECB Balance Sheet Is Shrinking Posted: 03 Feb 2013 02:08 PM PST It is remarkable to see Euro gold fast moving towards its one-year low after it touched its all-time highs in September 2012, slightly above €44,000 per kg. Euro gold lost 11% of its value in four months and is near significant support levels. Chart courtesy: Goldprice.org. At the same time, less surprising, the USD/EUR chart reveals significant strength in the Euro in the same timeframe Euro gold has been losing value. Chart courtesy: Yahoo! Finance. The answer to the declining Euro gold price and strengthening Euro currency is linked to the deflating balance sheet of the European Bank. Greg Weldon, former Moore capital trader and one of the top macro and precious metals experts, published the following two charts (courtesy: WeldonOnline). The ECB balance sheet reveals it has dipped below 3 trillion Euro very recently, which is approximately 150 billion Euro lower than its June 2012 peak. Mr. Draghi confirmed in June 2012 that he would do "whatever it takes " to save Europe. The balance sheet net change has exploded in the same period of time. In the second half of 2012, however, the ECB did not continue their balance sheet expansion. Bloomberg reported recently that European banks are paying back their loans, leading to a shrinking balance sheet of the ECB … a stronger Euro … and a lower Euro gold price. "Some 278 financial institutions will return 137.2 billion euros ($184.4 billion) on Jan. 30, the first opportunity for early repayment of the initial three-year loan, the Frankfurt- based ECB said in a statement today. That compares with the median forecast of 84 billion euros in a Bloomberg News survey of economists. The ECB's first loan totalled 489 billion euros and banks can continue to make early repayments in coming weeks." "The ECB flooded financial markets with two tranches of so- called Longer Term Refinancing Operations totaling more than 1 trillion euros a year ago after banks stopped lending to each other because of Europe's debt crisis. Banks have the option of repaying the loans, which were offered at the average of the ECB's benchmark rate over their duration, after a year." This article was set up with an important contribution by K. Xeroudakis, Precious Metals Strategist and former macro risk taker in a private family office.

Copper - Upside Breakout. Gold/Silver To Follow? Posted: 03 Feb 2013 12:38 PM PST The unshiny metal may be outshining its other metal cousins as its price has an upside breakout. As with any potential move, it remains potential until confirmed by the next successful retest. This is true for any move in any market. Read More...

U.S. Gov't May Want to &#8220;Help&#8221; You Manage Your Retirement Account! Really? Posted: 03 Feb 2013 12:20 PM PST "Follow the munKNEE" via twitter & Facebook or Register to receive our daily Intelligence Report When the government runs out of money, or they face a drying up in interest for its debt, they will come for the $19.4 trillion in Americans' retirement accounts.  It seems that day may be finally drawing near. So writes Michael Krieger (http://libertyblitzkrieg.com) in edited excerpts from his original article* entitled It's Coming:  The Government Wants to "Help Manage" Retirement Accounts. This article is presented compliments of www.FinancialArticleSummariesToday.com (A site for sore eyes and inquisitive minds) and www.munKNEE.com (Your Key to Making Money!) and may have been edited ([ ]), abridged (…) and/or reformatted (some sub-titles and bold/italics emphases) for the sake of clarity and brevity to ensure a fast and easy read. Please note that this paragraph must be included in any article re-posting to avoid copyright infringement. [Make sure you also read these other articles on the subject of possible future government involvement in your retirement accounts: The Government May Soon Force You to Include U.S. Treasuries In Your IRA and/or 401(k) Plan Will U.S. Gov't Eventually Mandate that 'x' % of IRA/401K Funds Be In Treasuries?  Is Your IRA or 401K a Target of Government Appropriation? How Safe Is Your Retirement Money from the Government's Grasp? Americans: Here's How to Protect Your Retirement Assets From Coming Gov't "Confiscation" Beware! "Retirement USA" Program Would Be First Step Towards Government Confiscation of Retirement Dollars] Krieger provides the following excerpts from Bloomberg [Full article here]: The U.S. Consumer Financial Protection Bureau is weighing whether it should take on a role in helping Americans manage the $19.4 trillion they have put into retirement savings [of which $3.5 trillion of that was in 401(k) plans], a move that would be the agency's first foray into consumer investments…. The bureau's core concern is that many Americans, notably those from the retiring Baby Boom generation, may fall prey to financial scams, according to three people briefed on the CFPB's deliberations who asked not to be named because the matter is still under discussion. The Securities and Exchange Commission and the Department of Labor are the main regulators of U.S. retirement savings vehicles and funds. However, the consumer bureau — established by the 2010 Dodd-Frank Act — sees itself as a potential catalyst for promoting a coherent policy across the government, the people said. [Interestingly,] The retirement savings industry generally has little to do with the CFPB because the SEC is the main investment regulator, said Ianthe Zabel, an ICI spokeswoman. Editor's Note: The author's views and conclusions are unaltered and no personal comments have been included to maintain the integrity of the original article. Furthermore, the views, conclusions and any recommendations offered in this article are not to be construed as an endorsement of such by the editor. *http://libertyblitzkrieg.com/2013/02/02/its-coming-the-government-wants-to-help-manage-retirement-accounts/ Register HERE for Your Daily Intelligence Report Newsletter It's FREE The "best of the best" financial, economic and investment articles An "edited excerpts" format to provide brevity & clarity for a fast & easy read Don't waste time searching for informative articles. We do it for you! Register HERE and automatically receive every article posted "Follow Us" on twitter & "Like Us" on Facebook Related Articles: 1. The Government May Soon Force You to Include U.S. Treasuries In Your IRA and/or 401(k) Plan There are huge amounts of money in the IRA ($3.5 trillion) and 401(k) ($5.1 trillion) retirement plans in the U.S. (another $9.9 trillion in assets held elsewhere) according to a recent Investment Company Institute study which makes it very tempting for government to try and get at it. [While] the government may, or may not, tax the money, they may force you to include a sizable percentage of the retirement assets in your IRA and/or 401(k) in U.S. Treasury securities, which may be among the worst investments in the years ahead as interest rates go up and price inflation eats away at the buying power of those IOUs. [Let me explain.] Words: 802  2. Will U.S. Gov't Eventually Mandate that 'x' % of IRA/401K Funds Be In Treasuries? The notion of government raiding personal retirement accounts for funds may seem extreme…but other governments have done it. Argentina did in 2008, Ireland has indicated it might [and the U.S. might well do so as it's] financial crisis worsens. This article puts forth reasons why it is possible they would undertake such a grab or 'confiscation' of your retirement accounts and how they likely would go about implementing such an event. Words: 700 3. Is Your IRA or 401K a Target of Government Appropriation? 4. How Safe Is Your Retirement Money from the Government's Grasp? 5. Americans: Here's How to Protect Your Retirement Assets From Coming Gov't "Confiscation" 6. Beware! "Retirement USA" Program Would Be First Step Towards Government Confiscation of Retirement Dollars 7. Gold Bullion or a 'Guaranteed' Retirement Account: Which Would You Rather Have in Your IRA or 401(k)? 8. Can I Invest in Physical Gold & Silver in My IRA? I have an IRA. How can I invest in gold and silver? It is quite easy! Yes, I am talking about actual physical gold and silver, not "paper" gold, or certificates, or paper promises. Words: 621 9. Americans: Which Gold/Silver Bullion Assets are Permitted in Your IRA? Some physical gold, silver, platinum and palladium bullion assets, in addition to traditional paper assets, can be part of your Individual Retirement Account (IRA) or Roth account and they can be bought and sold with no tax consequence until you move money out of the account. [This short articles reveals just what bullion assets can, and cannot, be included.] Words: 573 10. Gold, Silver, Your IRA – and a FREE Silver Coin Offer Many investors are concerned about what will happen to the future of their 401K, IRA, or other tax-sheltered account and, as such, are looking for safe-havens for their long term savings and retirement money.  Fortunately for gold/silver buyers, there is good news.  Current rules allow investors to…actually own physical gold/silver coins (or bars) in your retirement accounts. [Let's take a look at] how it works. Words: 1022

AMERICAN PIE (Oldie but Goodie) Posted: 03 Feb 2013 11:18 AM PST One of my first articles about the Fourth Turning, written in October 2009. My assessment of Obama's economic policies seems to have been spot on. This is still one of my personal favorites. "The whole problem with the world is that fools and fanatics are always so certain of themselves, but wiser people so full of doubts." Bertrand Russell Don McLean was born in 1945 and grew up in New Rochelle, New York. He was one of the earliest Baby Boomers. He was born at the beginning of America's last High, as described by Strauss & Howe in their book The Fourth Turning. America's victory in World War II began a new 80 to 100 year cycle consisting of four turnings of 20 to 25 years. The four cycles are a High, an Awakening, an Unraveling and a Crisis. These cycles have been recurring throughout history due to the generational mood changes as people age. Don McLean grew up during a High. This was a episode of safety and security. He basked in "Dr. Spock permissiveness, suburban conformism, Sputnik-era schooling, Beaver Cleaver friendliness, and Father Knows Best family order." His idyllic life changed on the morning of February 3, 1959 when he read the headline in the newspaper he was about to deliver. A long long time ago I can still remember How that music used to make me smile And I knew if I had my chance That I could make those people dance And maybe they'd be happy for a while But February made me shiver With every paper I'd deliver Bad news on the doorstep I couldn't take one more step I can't remember if I cried When I read about his widowed bride But something touched me deep inside The day the music died So bye, bye Miss American Pie Drove my Chevy to the levee but the levee was dry And them good old boys were drinking whiskey and rye Singing this'll be the day that I die This'll be the day that I die American Pie – Don McLean To Everything There is a Season Don McLean was 14 years old in 1959 when he read the bad news on the doorstep. He didn't realize it at the time, but the American High was coming to a conclusion. The assassination of John F. Kennedy in 1963 marked the end of the High and the start of the Awakening. A stage of turmoil was about to erupt across America. Strauss & Howe describe the mood transition of the country from a High to an Awakening: "An Awakening arrives with a dramatic challenge against the High's assumptions about benevolent reason and congenial institutions. The outer world now feels trivial compared to the inner world. New spiritual agendas and social ideals burst forth, along with utopian experiments seeking to reconcile total fellowship with total autonomy. The prosperity and security of a High are overtly disdained though covertly taken for granted. A society searches for soul over science, meanings over things. Youth-fired attacks break out against the established institutional order. As these attacks take their toll, society has difficulty coalescing around common goals. People stop believing that social progress requires social discipline. Any public effort that requires collective discipline encounters withering controversy. Wars are awkwardly fought and badly remembered afterward." As the chart below shows, the progression of generations through the four cycles of life can be documented back to the 1400's. I've always believed that George Santayana's quote, "Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it", was a profound statement. After examining Strauss & Howe's generational theory, it may not matter whether you remember the past. You are condemned to repeat it. A generation that is 80 years removed from the last similar cycle is incapable of understanding or learning from that prior cycle. Individuals may study and understand the mood changes that shifted the country on a certain course, but they are helpless in changing the powerful force of a generational life transition. Every person born on this earth has a maximum stay of about 80 to 100 years. They hopefully will make it through the phases of childhood, young adulthood, midlife, and elderhood. These phases can't be reversed or rearranged. This is why the four cycles of High, Awakening, Unraveling, and Crisis must occur in that order. When Don McLean was writing American Pie in 1970 at the age of 25, he wasn't aware that he was capturing the Awakening mood of an entire generation in one song. The Turnings in Anglo-American History   The Turnings First (High) Second (Awakening) Third (Unraveling) Fourth (Crisis) Life Phase: Elderhood Nomad Hero Artist Prophet Midlife Hero Artist Prophet Nomad Young Adulthood Artist Prophet Nomad Hero Childhood Prophet Nomad Hero Artist Saeculum: Late Medieval — — Retreat from France (1435–1459) War of the Roses (1459–1487) Tudor Tudor Renaissance (1487–1517) Protestant Reformation (1517–1542) Intolerance & Martyrdom (1542–1569) Armada Crisis (1569–1594) New World Merrie England (1594–1621) Puritan Awakening (1621–1649) Reaction & Restoration (1649–1675) Glorious Revolution (1675–1704) Revolutionary Augustan Age of Empire (1704–1727) Great Awakening (1727–1746) French & Indian Wars (1746–1773) American Revolution (1773–1794) Civil War Era of Good Feelings (1794–1822) Transcendental Awakening (1822–1844) Mexican War & Sectionalism (1844–1860) Civil War (1860–1865) Great Power Reconstruction & Gilded Age (1865–1886) Third Great Awakening (1886–1908) World War I & Prohibition (1908–1929) Great Depression & World War II (1929–1946) Millennial American High (1946–1964) Consciousness Revolution (1964–1984) Culture Wars (1984–2005?) Millennial Crisis? (2005?–2026?) The Day the Music Died As a young boy, Don McLean was often housebound due to a bad case of childhood asthma. It was during this time that he developed his love of music and learned to play the guitar. The 1950s were an era of happiness and affluence for the burgeoning American middle class. Americans had a feeling of optimism about their prospects for the future, and pride in their nation which had emerged victorious from World War II, setting the world free from the tyranny of Nazi Germany. Popular music mirrored society. Performers such as Buddy Holly, Elvis Presley, and Bill Haley and the Comets churned out feel-good records that matched the mood of the nation. Don's idyllic childhood came to a shattering conclusion between 1959 and 1963. His music idol, Buddy Holly, died in an airplane crash. His father died in 1961, when Don was 15 years old. John F. Kennedy was assassinated in 1963. Don entered young adulthood during the 1960's as he develop into a musician and made connections in the music industry. He came of age during the Consciousness Revolution. It was marked by urban riots and campus rage, together with Vietnam War demonstrations and a rebellious hippie counterculture. It gave rise to feminist, environmental, and black power movements and to a steep rise in violent crime and family disintegration. The Civil Rights movement, Martin Luther King assassination and the Robert Kennedy assassination were major episodes during this tumultuous period. McLean wrote the song American Pie in 1970, about one-third through the Awakening era. American Pie presents an conceptual story of McLean's life from the 1950s until the end of the 1960s, and at the same time represents the evolution of popular music and politics over these years, from the happiness of the 1950s to the darkness of the late 1960s. In 1970, the Vietnam War was at its height. Four unarmed college students had been shot dead at Kent State University by National Guardsmen while protesting the invasion of Cambodia in early 1970. Alan Howard, author of The Don McLean Story: Killing Us Softly With His Songs, described the period of turmoil and Don McLean's role in closing this chapter: "The 1960s was the antithesis of the previous decade. The exuberant simplicity of the 1950s was displaced by a much more volatile and politically charged atmosphere. People were asking questions. The cozy world of white middle class America was disturbed, as civil rights campaigners marched on Washington, D.C., and Martin Luther King Jr delivered his "I Have a Dream" speech from the steps of the Lincoln Memorial. The following year saw the 1964 Civil Rights Act become law. On the world stage, America's leading super-power status was being challenged by the Soviet Union, and its military might was being tested by the Vietnamese. Even in music, America soon found itself overrun by a British invasion. The 1960s was a turbulent time for McLean's generation." "By 1971, America was still deeply troubled. The Vietnam War was out of control. The anti-war movement was gathering momentum and being listened to. Other events of the time, such as the successful launch of Apollo 14, did little to restore national pride. "American Pie," in the opinion of the song's producer, Ed Freeman, was the funeral oration for an era: "Without it, many of us would have been unable to grieve, achieve closure, and move on. Don saw that, and wrote the song that set us free. We should all be eternally grateful to him for that." The generation defining song marked the end of the fierce phase of the Awakening. After the ferocity crested with Watergate in 1974, passions turned inward toward New Age lifestyles and spiritual rebirth. The mood petered out during Reagan's optimistic Morning in America reelection campaign in 1983, as onetime hippies reached their yuppie chrysalis. American Pie has been voted the 5th greatest song of the Twentieth Century. It didn't fit the requirements of a standard pop music hit. Singles were supposed to be 2 to 3 minutes. McLean's song was War and Peace in comparison. The song ran for an unheard of 8 minutes and 33 seconds. The lyrics contained 877 words. The song is sad, emotional, touching, inspirational, religious, and confusing. It somehow touches you deep inside. Don has never interpreted the lyrics for the public. His view is: "You will find many interpretations of my lyrics but none of them by me… sorry to leave you all on your own like this but long ago I realized that songwriters should make their statements and move on, maintaining a dignified silence." I personally consider American Pie to be the greatest song ever written. I was eight years old in 1971 when the song came out. I shared a 100 square foot room with my sixteen year old brother. I would go to bed at eight o'clock and he would be studying at his desk with the stereo on. My childhood memories are filled with the tunes of Don McLean, CSNY, Simon & Garfunkel, the Beatles, and the Stones. In the late 1980s I spent many a summer weekend night in the Princeton Bar & Grille in Avalon, New Jersey. The saddest part of the evening was at 2:20 a.m. when the DJ would play American Pie, letting everyone know that closing time had arrived. I can still hear the echo of hundreds of drunken 23 year olds singing at the top of their lungs. This is a particularly happy memory, as I met my lovely wife at the Princeton Bar & Grille. In the past, generational mood changes were reflected in literature. George Orwell's 1984 and Animal Farm were reflective of the mood during the last Crisis era. The music of the late 1960's and early 1970's captured the mood of the country. Ohio by CSNY, Mrs. Robinson by Simon & Garfunkel, Revolution by the Beatles, and Sympathy for the Devil by the Rolling Stones all reflected the chaotic times, but American Pie is the national anthem of the Baby Boom generation. McLean documents the progression of music and national mood with his haunting lyrics. Awakening through Unraveling In 8 minutes and 33 seconds, Don McLean captured the angst and turmoil of an entire generation moving from a High halfway through an Awakening. McLean was unhappy with the America of the late 1960's. The Awakening cycle continued until 1984. The youthful enthusiasm and the attacks on the establishment dimmed as the country exited Vietnam and experienced the trauma of Watergate. Emotions cooled as the 1970s progressed. The 1970s and early 1980s are remembered for closure of the gold window by Nixon, Nixon's resignation, stagflation, oil embargoes, even or odd gas days, the Ford Pinto, recessions, Saturday Night Fever, American hostages, Carter's ineptitude, Reagan's optimism, John Hinckley's assassination attempt, John Lennon's assassination, 18% interest rates, and 11% unemployment rates. This was not a cheerful time in America. The success of shows like Happy Days reflected America's longing for the "better" days of the 1950s. The old cultural regime had been thoroughly discredited and institutions had been delegitimized. America's mood was ready to change again, as 1984 approached. The Boomers entered their self actualization phase concentrating on wealth accumulation and personal fulfillment. Strauss & Howe described the journey from Awakening to Unraveling: The Tomorrowland of the 1950s had evolved through Space Odyssey in the 1960s to Star Wars in the 1970s and Close Encounters of the Third Kind in the 1980s, a spiritual future in which human consciousness triumphs over machines. The visions alternated between perfection and disaster—between utopias celebrating "love" and dystopias annihilating everything. We no longer believed that progress required self-expression more than self-control—even if we still assumed that our nation must be advancing somewhere. An Unraveling begins much like a High, with a renewed sense of purpose and spirit of optimism. Ronald Reagan's 1984 Morning in America and Bear in the Woods presidential ad campaign symbolized the new spirit: "It's morning again in America. Today more men and women will go to work than ever before in our country's history. With interest rates at about half the record highs of 1980, nearly 2,000 families today will buy new homes, more than at any time in the past four years. This afternoon 6,500 young men and women will be married, and with inflation at less than half of what it was just four years ago, they can look forward with confidence to the future. It's morning again in America, and under the leadership of President Reagan, our country is prouder and stronger and better. Why would we ever want to return to where we were less than four short years ago?" "There is a bear in the woods. For some people the bear is easy to see. Others don't see it at all. Some people say the bear is tame. Others say it's vicious and dangerous. Since no one can really be sure who is right, isn't it smart to be as strong as the bear? If there is a bear…." An entrepreneurial force was unleashed with the re-election of Ronald Reagan. The economy soared as Reagan began a massive military buildup and slashed individual and corporate income taxes. The stock market skyrocketed as leveraged buyouts and hostile takeovers dominated the business world. Reagan's mantra of smaller government was good PR, but it never happened. He cut taxes, but never cut spending. Deficits became acceptable. The National Debt at the beginning of Reagan's Presidency was $900 billion. Today it stands at $11.9 Trillion. The military buildup proved phenomenally successful as the Soviet Union collapsed under the weight of its war in Afghanistan and attempt to keep up with the U.S. military buildup. A "greed is good" attitude permeated Wall Street and spurred Boomers to seek riches at any cost. Fraud was rampant in business across the lands. Bankers led the charge. The S&L crisis led to the failure of over 1,000 banks. Citibank and Chrysler needed to be bailed out by the government for the 1st time. The last hurrah of good feelings occurred when General Schwarzkopf and his U.S. forces pulverized Sadaam Hussein's invading army in Kuwait in 1991 losing 379 men versus 35,000 dead Iraqis. The 1990s deteriorated into a series of culture wars as Pat Robertson's Moral Majority and Jesse Jackson's Rainbow Coalition staked out their positions. The dissatisfaction with the status quo was made clear when populist Ross Perot was able to garner 18.9% of the national vote in 1992, leading to the election of Bill Clinton. Pessimism and gridlock marked the 1990's. With a Republican Congress and a Democratic President, virtually no major legislation was passes between 1994 and 2000. This restricted government spending while tax revenue soared in the late 1990s with the dot.com stock bubble. The result was budget surpluses. Individual self interest dominated personal life, and intractable national problems like Social Security and Medicare didn't demand immediate action, so they were pushed off to the distant future. The public became disillusioned as the two parties degenerated into name calling, accusations and shrill rhetoric. Incivility in public discourse, a widening chasm between the haves and have nots, all-encompassing distrust of financial and governmental institutions and leaders, and a debased media and public culture led to a national pessimism. George W. Bush assumed the Presidency in a Supreme Court contested election in 2000. His mandate was smaller government and a no nation building foreign policy. When he took office, the U.S. had a budget surplus, was involved in no wars, and had a National Debt of $5.7 trillion. Today, the country has budget deficits approaching $2 trillion, is still involved in two wars of choice that have cost $900 billion to wage, and the National Debt stands at $11.9 trillion. Source: Treasury Dept. In the last nine years the politicians running the United States have managed to increase our National Debt by $6.2 trillion dollars, when it took 211 years to accumulate $5.7 trillion of debt. This may explain why Congress' approval rating is 21%, an all-time low. The 9/11 terrorist attack marked the beginning of the end of the Unraveling period. It set in motion the over-reactions that would insure a future Crisis of epic proportions. The combination of easy money from the Fed, complete lack of enforcement of existing rules and regulations on the financial industry, reckless and fraudulent lending by the financial industry, waging of two wars of choice in the Middle East, the President urging citizens to borrow, spend and buy houses, multiple tax rebates, the addition of trillions in unfunded Medicare liabilities, trillion dollar bank bailouts, trillion dollar stimulus programs, national healthcare, and complete lack of energy strategy have created a perfect storm that has only just begun. The country grows more pessimistic by the day as intractable problems that have been ignored or shunned for decades now must be addressed. Strauss and Howe describe the mood: "Cynical alienation has hardened into a brooding pessimism. During a High, obliging individuals serve a purposeful society, and even bad people get harnessed to socially constructive tasks; during an Unraveling, an obliging society serves purposeful individuals, and even good people find it hard to connect with their community. The approaching specter of public disaster ultimately elicits a mix of paralysis and apathy that would have been unthinkable half a saeculum earlier. People can now feel, but collectively can no longer do. Think-tank luminaries have exulted over the history-bending changes of the Information Age, while the public has glazed at expertise, cynically disregarded the good news, and dwelled on the negative." Millennial Crisis – The Fourth Turning Has Arrived A Crisis arises in response to sudden threats that previously would have been ignored or deferred, but which are now perceived as dire. Great worldly perils boil off the clutter and complexity of life, leaving behind one simple imperative: The society must prevail. This requires a solid public consensus, aggressive institutions, and personal sacrifice. Strauss & Howe – The Fourth Turning The current Crisis era began with the housing bubble that peaked in 2005 and the subsequent collapse of the financial system in 2008. The government response to a Crisis caused by thirty years of debt accumulation by consumers has been to spectacularly increase the amount of debt in the financial system. Since consumers won't spend and banks won't lend, the Federal Government and the Federal Reserve have decided to spend our grandchildren's money today to prop up a corrupt evil empire. As White House lackeys and Federal Reserve shysters parade on TV day after day assuring the American public that the crisis is over and crowing that their wisdom prevented a 2nd Great Depression, the truth is they have planted the seeds of a far worse Crisis. The government actions taken so far, along with legislation chugging along in Congress will add $13 trillion to the National Debt by 2019. That would put the National Debt at $25 trillion in 2019. If interest rates are 5% in 2019, the interest on the debt would be $1.25 trillion per year. Realistically, interest rates would likely by 10% or higher in 2019. At that rate, the interest bill would be $2.5 trillion per year. The United States generated $2.1 trillion of total revenue in 2009. Government debt as a percentage of GDP will reach 99% in 2019 versus 24% in 1974. The Paul Krugmans of the world will point out that Japan has a debt to GDP of 170% today and they are doing OK. What he won't point out is that they have endured a two decade long recession and started it with the benefit of huge trade surpluses and personal savings rates exceeding 10% by consumers. The U.S. has neither of these attributes. The good news is that we will never reach the $25 billion National Debt. The bad news is that the country will collapse well before 2019. As a gang of marauding starving homeless former Goldman Sachs investment bankers beat Mr. Krugman about the head with his Nobel Prize, he can try to explain to them how another trillion of stimulus would have done the trick. Every decision made by our "leaders" in the last year has been a short-term solution without worrying about future consequences. This has been the politicians' response for decades. Amazingly, the people that inhabit the halls of Washington and live in the ivory towers of academia actually believe that debt will cure a disaster created by too much debt. "The fact that an opinion has been widely held is no evidence whatever that it is not utterly absurd; indeed in view of the silliness of the majority of mankind, a widespread belief is more likely to be foolish than sensible."  Bertrand Russell During World War II the United States was self-reliant in terms of oil – producing almost 1.8 billion barrels per year. U.S. production rose to an all-time high of approximately 3.4 billion barrels per year in 1972. Thereafter, the drop in U.S. production began, and we are now back below the 1946-level of oil production when the population of the United States was 141 million. Today, the U.S. population exceeds 308 million. Worldwide total liquids production peaked at 86 million barrels in 2008. All of the easily extractable oil and gas in the world has been found. Additional supplies will be found deep below the ocean, in challenging arctic regions, in tar sands, and shale. It will be dramatically more expensive to extract oil from these sources. The United States is dependent on 600 million barrels of oil from Mexico every year. By 2012 Mexico will become a net importer of oil, so 600 million barrels of oil will need to be supplanted. Iran's oil production is in decline as capital investment has been ignored for years. Russia's production has peaked. Saudi Arabia continues to lie about its ability to ramp up production. Their oil fields are 40 years old and in terminal decline. By 2012, the world will only be able to produce 80 million barrels per day. There is no doubt that demand in 2012 will be higher than today's 85 million barrels per day as China, India and other developing countries continue to grow. The U.S. has 5% of the world's population, but use 25% of the world's energy. There is no doubt that $5 a gallon or higher gasoline is in our near term future. We have had a Department of Energy since 1979. Over this time we have become more dependent on foreign oil. No nuclear power plants or oil refineries have been built in the U.S. in 30 years. Pipelines and energy infrastructure rusts away, while we twiddle our thumbs and agonize over the health of the planet. Doing nothing is a decision. It is a decision which will have dire consequences. Ethanol, solar, and wind will not save us now. It is too late. The United States depends on oil, natural gas, and coal to supply 87% of its energy, with nuclear power providing another 7%. The beloved solar, wind and geothermal sources supply 1.5% of our energ

Finally the Final Bottom in Gold Stocks Is Coming- Finally! Posted: 03 Feb 2013 11:17 AM PST *"Follow the [COLOR=#0000ff][U]munKNEE"[/U][/COLOR] via twitter & Facebook or Register to receive our daily [B][B][B][B]Intelligence Report[/B][/B][/B][/B] The mining stocks have been a disaster if you've invested in the average fund, GDX or GDXJ and if you've invested in the wrong stocks, they've been a total disaster and you will now hate the sector forever. We've certainly been surprised by this protracted struggle. In my articles you've heard me talk about accumulating on weakness, buying support, being patient and waiting for better opportunities. Folks, this next week is one of those opportunities. The gold stocks are setting up similarly to the bottom in 2005 [and, as such,] are set to test a major bottom and could be on the cusp of a major reversal.* Let me explain. Words: 438; Charts: 3 So writes Jordan Roy-Byrne, CMT ([url]www.thedailygold.com[/url]) in edited excerpts from his* original article* entitled Final Bottom in Gold Stocks Coming. [INDENT] This article is pres...

Copper – Upside Breakout. Gold/Silver To Follow? Posted: 03 Feb 2013 11:11 AM PST The unshiny metal may be outshining its other metal cousins as its price has an upside breakout. As with any potential move, it remains potential until confirmed by the next successful retest. This is true for any move in any market. Confirmation is a critical and overlooked aspect in price activity. While there is no clear correlation between copper, relative to gold and silver, there is an occasional lag/lead aspect to them, and it may be that if this upside breakout holds, it can only help gold and silver.

Finally the Final Bottom in Gold Stocks Is Coming &#8211; Finally! Posted: 03 Feb 2013 11:05 AM PST  "Follow the munKNEE" via twitter & Facebook or Register to receive our daily Intelligence Report The mining stocks have been a disaster if you've invested in the average fund, GDX or GDXJ and if you've invested in the wrong stocks, they've been a total disaster and you will now hate the sector forever. We've certainly been surprised by this protracted struggle. In my articles you've heard me talk about accumulating on weakness, buying support, being patient and waiting for better opportunities. Folks, this next week is one of those opportunities. The gold stocks are setting up similarly to the bottom in 2005 [and, as such,] are set to test a major bottom and could be on the cusp of a major reversal.  Let me explain. Words: 438; Charts: 3 So writes Jordan Roy-Byrne, CMT (www.thedailygold.com) in edited excerpts from his  original article* entitled Final Bottom in Gold Stocks Coming. This article is presented compliments of www.FinancialArticleSummariesToday.com (A site for sore eyes and inquisitive minds) and www.munKNEE.com (Your Key to Making Money!) and may have been edited ([ ]), abridged (…) and/or reformatted (some sub-titles and bold/italics emphases) for the sake of clarity and brevity to ensure a fast and easy read. Please note that this paragraph must be included in any article re-posting to avoid copyright infringement. Roy-Byrne goes on to say in further edited excerpts: Gold Stock Performance in 2004 and 2005 The gold stocks made a major double bottom in 2004 and 2005. The first bottom occurred in 2004 and the second in 2005. Interestingly, the 2004 bottom was its own double bottom…[in] that the gold stocks rallied significantly for several months following before eventually giving it all back. Note the circles on the chart below as they compare to the current situation. Below is a chart of the HUI in 2004-2005 with the HUI/Gold ratio plotted at the bottom. Gold Stock Performance in 2012 In 2012 the HUI formed a small double bottom and then rallied strongly for a few months (like in 2004). Similar to 2005, the market has given all of that back and in the process the HUI/Gold ratio broke to a new low. The question now is will the HUI form a major rebound similar to the one in May 2005 and cement a long-term double bottom? Correlation is not causation but we should be aware of the potential for a strong rebound. Gold Stock Performance Trend Aside from the 2012 double bottom support, there is major trendline support around the 350 area. In the short-term, a move below the May 2012 low would constitute a major breakdown. However, it could be a test of the bull trendline and induce a bear trap and major reversal. On a very long-term chart, the difference between 375 and 350 is barely noticeable. The chart below shows the trendline connecting the 2000 and 2008 lows. How to Play 2013 Gold Stock Performance One should buy when the sector becomes extremely oversold on a very short-term basis. Look for a bad day followed by a gap down the next day which produces big losses intraday. This is the type of action that precedes bottoms in the mining stocks….Look for stocks with strong fundamentals which have held up well in recent days and weeks. Those stocks will produce good rebounds.  Editor's Note: The author's views and conclusions are unaltered and no personal comments have been included to maintain the integrity of the original article. Furthermore, the views, conclusions and any recommendations offered in this article are not to be construed as an endorsement of such by the editor. * http://thedailygold.com/final-bottom-in-gold-stocks-coming/ (If you'd be interested in professional guidance in uncovering the producers and explorers poised for big gains then we invite you to learn more about our premium service; Written by Jordan Roy-Byrne, CMT; Jordan (at) TheDailyGold (dot) com ; Copyright  © 2013 The Daily Gold) Register HERE for Your Daily Intelligence Report Newsletter It's FREE The "best of the best" financial, economic and investment articles An "edited excerpts" format to provide brevity & clarity for a fast & easy read Don't waste time searching for informative articles. We do it for you! Register HERE and automatically receive every article posted "Follow Us" on twitter & "Like Us" on Facebook Related Articles: 1. Goldrunner: Gold & Silver Bottoming This Week & Setting Up for Parabolic Moves In Both This week could see a very significant historical bottoming point of interest for Gold and for Silver. Big moves late in the cycle for Gold and for Silver come after long sideways movements suggesting that both precious metals are ready to go parabolic. 2. Gold & Silver: Its What the Charts Say, Not Fundamentals Or Opinion, and the Charts Say… All fundamentals and opinions are useless in the markets because they pertain to timing, and timing plays a huge role when investing/trading….[and only] put one's belief system into a context with regard to the market[s]….It does not matter what others say about the market; what matters is what the market says about others. The market is, and always will be, the final arbiter of all "facts" and "opinions." [This article give an update on exactly what the charts are currently saying about gold and silver.] 3. These Charts Provide Detailed Insights Into Gold & Silver Price Activity All known information is contained in the charts, and being able to read them is a distinct advantage.  The best way to achieve that advantage is to learn to make distinctions contained in the charts from one day/week/month to the next and this article does just that for both gold and silver. [Take a look.] Words: 1375; Charts: 6 4. Goldrunner Update: Gold, Silver & PM Stock Sentiment Sucks BUT the Fundamentals Are Off the Wall! Sentiment in the precious metals sector is in the toilet yet the fundamentals for the sector are off the walls positive.  That is not secret, but it is what creates huge market moves in the direction of the fundamentals. In fact, market management will never move price against the underlying fundamentals for too long a period of time. 5. Gold Bulls Shouldn't Buy Gold Stocks! With the Bank of Japan's latest move to fight deflation and seemingly to start another round of global competitive currency devaluation, it…makes sense to hold some gold in a portfolio. However, I remain of the opinion that it makes no sense for gold bulls to hold gold stocks over bullion. [This article explains why that is the case.] Words: 281 6. The Good News – and Bad – Regarding Gold, Silver & PM Stocks Going Forward As we begin 2013, there has been an important shift in regards to precious metals…the decoupling that has taken place between the equity market and the precious metals complex…[which] began nearly 17 months ago (decouplings of three or six months are not significant). Since the Euro crisis in summer 2011, the equity market has rallied nearly 30% and reached a five-year high, but gold stocks are down by more than 30%…[and, as such,]  precious metals cannot begin an impulsive sustained bull move if the equity market continues to move higher. The equity market has to struggle with resistance and begin a mild cyclical bear move. While over the near-term precious metals can confirm a higher low, the 2013 success of the sector depends on the struggles of conventional stocks. [This article explains why that is the case and uses several charts to illustrate the point.] Words: 899 7. Here's An Easy Way to Identify Gold & Gold Miner Market Tops and Bottoms It's amazing! Every day I learn something new. I have just come across a very powerful tool that identifies market tops and bottoms in both the gold price and the gold mining industry valuation. Let me share it with you. Words: 352; Charts: 4 8. The Charts Tell ALL and THIS Is What They're Saying About Gold & Silver for 2013 It is impossible not to read some source…touting the "fact" that the price of gold and silver will be…["$x", "$y", etc.] in the "coming months" or in the "next year or two," etc. The market, however, does not echo those…sentiments because that is exactly what they are, sentiments.  When it comes to sentiments or opinions, regardless of how close to source or how well reasoned, the market does not care. The charts are all-knowing, and they present everything known about the price, sans any opinion(s). Just deal with the facts and plan accordingly.  Trust the markets – they never lie – [and this is what they are saying about the price of gold and silver in 2013]. Words: 1889; Charts: 6 9. A Peek at Possible Developments in Gold, Silver, Mining Shares & the Dow There are countless articles available for free suggesting what to expect short- and long-term in the markets but what are those analysts who charge a fee for their insights and recommendations saying these days? Same old, same old or unique and actionable? One such subscription market timing service has pulled back the veil to give us a peek at what could well be unfolding. Words: 906; Charts: 8 links 10. Keep the Faith – This Bull Market in Gold STILL Promises to Be One for the History Books! Here's Why Seeing the S&P 500 outperform gold and seeing gold stocks get decimated…has been enough to create suicidal sentiment…in the precious metals (PM) sector…but, as the many calls for an end of the PM bull market…[are expressed,] the risk in the PM sector gets lower and lower. The bigger picture hasn't changed and isn't going to for some time [so] keep the faith and hold onto your PM sector items tight. Don't let the short and intermediate-term noise distract you from what STILL promises to be a secular bull market for the history books. The Dow to Gold ratio will hit 2 and might even go below 1 this cycle. [Let me explain.] Words: 873 11. Gold Stocks Go Up Dramatically In Inauguration Years – Will Another +20% Increase Occur This Year? President Obama will be sworn into office for a second term on January 21 and that's good news if you own gold stocks. Why? Because gold stocks, [as represented by the XAU] have increased, on average, by 20% during inaugural years since 1985 (28% in 2005; 36% in 2003). While there's no real rhyme or reason as to why gold stocks thrive in inauguration years – statistical anomaly or otherwise – it is yet another reason to buy gold stocks right now. Words: 312; Charts: 1

Germany Repatriates Its Gold Posted: 03 Feb 2013 11:04 AM PST On Wednesday, January 16 the German Central Bank (i.e., Bundesbank) announced that it was going to repatriate some of its gold reserves currently being held at the New York Fed and all of its gold reserves held by the Banque de France. It had previously repatriated 940 of the 1385 tons of its gold reserves held at the Bank of England, citing high storage fees as the reason (the New York Fed and the Banque of France charge no such fees). Three-hundred-and-seventy-four metric tons will be trucked from Paris to Frankfurt, representing 11 percent of its reserves, and 300 metric tons will be shipped from New York. By 2020, the plan is to have 50 percent of its reserves held in Frankfurt. Germany has the second largest stock of gold next to the US and has not bought or sold gold since 1973.

Gold And Silver - Pushing On A String Amidst A Shaky Environment Posted: 03 Feb 2013 10:47 AM PST The January monthly charts are now complete. Not sure that anything new can be learned, but it is always worth looking, never presuming anything. Remember, the point of reading developing market activity is to make factual observations of the information that the market is generating. The information takes the form of highs and lows for successive bars, over any/all time frames, where price closed, [telling us who won the battle for that bar], along with volume, the energy/effort of each bar. It reflects the bottom-line decision-making of all participants, but our interest is learning what smart money, [those who control/ influence the market the most], is saying in their net decisions, for they always try to mask their intent. Their "fingerprints" are all over the market, usually in the form of high volume days, for it is not the public that generates high volume. We proceed:

Own Physical Gold &amp; Silver As Currency Wars Will Destroy Our Money Posted: 03 Feb 2013 10:40 AM PST This article is based on a Q&A with Andy Hoffman, marketing director at Miles Franklin, the largest bullion dealer in the US. The general macro economic outlook of Andy Hoffman is based on the expectation we will see "more of the same," including more money printing, weaker economies, higher unemployment, social unrest … and importantly weaker currencies. With the Dow Jones index almost at all-time highs (14,009 closing price on February 1st) and the VIX indicator close to all time lows (12.90 on February 1st), weakness is not reflected in equity prices. Markets are not real; they no longer exist. Every market is manipulated to levels we have never seen before. Governments have always been buying bonds. Now they admit that they are buying stocks as well; they use the exchange stabilization fund to manipulate currencies. They have so thoroughly taken over the market that they have literally destroyed volatility. That is why the metals are the safest place to be. This is clearly an artificial situation and cannot go on forever. These conditions have continued for much longer than expected. Andy Hoffman can hardly believe the slow motion pace at which conditions are deteriorating, saying "this will continue until it stops." Case in point is the debt situation which went from arithmetic to parabolic growth. Somewhere it will stop; the point is nobody knows when and how exactly. The first signs of higher interest rates are there in the US and Japan, with the 10 year Treasury yield moving to 2% very recently. Governments will react with even more monetary easing (QE). Japan has just announced QE11. Similarly, for gold and silver, the key question is for how long paper gold and silver (in the form of futures and ETF's) can control the price. It will be possible until physical demand will take over. Nobody knows how long exactly when it will happen and what the (final) trigger will be. However, one thing is clear: the longer this game goes on, the stronger the reaction afterwards. There you have one of the key reasons to own physical gold and silver. The danger of today's fiat (promise) based currencies Miles Franklin believes people should prepare for the worst case scenario when it comes to their financial assets (money in the first place). Recent research has shown that 600 paper based currencies in recorded history have ALL failed, for different reasons. Physical gold and silver exist for 5,000 years and have preserved their purchasing power. The above chart tells us that gold has preserved historically well the purchasing power of people. More importantly perhaps, in times of financial instability like today, it increases our purchasing power. The gain in purchasing power comes from the loss in value of the currency in which gold is denominated. In fact, the gold price increase is simply the RESULT of the decrease in value of the currency in which gold is denominated. Miles Franklin sees an increasing number of people who realize they better convert their money into gold and silver. Note the difference between converting money or investing money. It could seem a subtle difference, but it is a fundamental one: gold and silver are not an investment; it is another way of saving. Andy Hoffman points to the fact that people do not say they invested their money when putting it on their bank account. Likewise, converting money into gold and silver is not an investment, it is one of the ways to hold money. It is everyone's choice to save in real money. The global economic scene is focused on additional monetary easing and continuing currency debasement in order to inflate their debts away. Consequently gold is set to rise higher. Precious metals owners should be rewarded with much more than only preservation of purchasing power, assuming the continuation of the current trend. The US is the most indebted nation, worldwide and historically, with declining manufacturing and labor participation rates. The only thing that makes the US strong today is that the fact that so many nations own the dollar. Today's monetary system is historically unique given that it is backed by nothing but a promise to pay the holders of banknotes back. That is what "fiat currencies" are: promise based currency backed by nothing tangible. This is the only time in history where ALL countries globally are living on a paper based (fiat based) currency system. What we know from history is that every single fiat currency in history has collapsed. Ultimately, all these fiat currencies disappear, each in its own way. Some people believe that the Yen is going to collapse and the US dollar will be fine. Andy Hoffman classifies this as a myth, being convinced that the dollar will collapse as well. The underlying belief at Miles Franklin is that today's gold bull market is much stronger than the one in the 70's. In particular, the scale today is much bigger. Andy Hoffman points to some obvious differences: The 70's gold bull market was primarily based on US centric issues. Today's scale is global; international trades are huge between the US, China, Japan, Europe. The past decade marked an explosion in derivatives which resulted in an extreme leverage in the economy. The world came off a gold standard in 1971. There was almost no debt in the 70's compared to today, neither in the US nor in Europe. So when inflation hit in the late 70's it was possible to raise interest rates. Today, with 16 trillion dollars in outstanding official debt and some 70 trillion in unfunded liabilities, each percent rise in interest rates results in an additional 160 billion dollars cost of debt servicing. With all this "good economic news" coming out, QE is not really decreasing, making it impossible to move interest rates go up. Debt based currencies are simply a Ponzi scheme: the only way to keep it going is to make it bigger. That "game" goes on until confidence is lost. We are 40 now years after the start of this big Ponzi scheme. The global currency war is starting a historic break out Miles Franklin's blog reports on a daily basis how the economic situation is evolving. The blog posts are accessible. With trustful news and global events as the underlying source of information, one of the latest blog posts "The final currency war" is a must read. It shows how the global currency war has taken off more or less openly and officially. Japan's latest announcement to increase their monetary stimuli and their commitment to debase their currency is potentially that last trigger for the global currency war to break out. Andy Hoffman points to the suppression techniques of central banks to massively attack gold and silver, aiming to hide the underlying state of the economy. Suppression is extremely obvious and happens in full daylight. When QE3 and QE4 were announced in the US, dollar gold surged but was hit substantially almost immediately. Andy says: "They are so terrified. Gold and silver are not allowed to break out. Still the metals are up 12 years in a row. An increasing number of people know what is going on. Since December 13th, the day QE4 was announced, Miles Franklin had extremely busy weeks; sales were literally on fire. So, the price drops should act to slow down or stop the massive buying. As a bullion dealer, we can only confirm the huge disconnect between the paper and the physical market."

Debt Delinquancy - Seamless Collapse Economics Posted: 03 Feb 2013 10:34 AM PST MAYBE THE MAYANS WERE RIGHT The New Age mystics told us that the Mayans told them the world would end in Dec 2012, but in reality the world ran out of Mayans an awful long time ago: about 1550 AD. Nearer to us, the world has already run out of credit, more than 5 years ago, or 1800 days back in time from today.

SILVER SMASHING SALES RECORDS &amp; Government Lies – Jeff Nielson – YouTube Posted: 03 Feb 2013 10:09 AM PST Check our website daily at... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit http://www.figanews.com for full Content ]]

Miners Are Just Doing What Miners Do Posted: 03 Feb 2013 09:31 AM PST The present anxiety seems focused on the HUI miner's index and it's frightening under performance of seemingly every asset class and market sector imaginable. This post will make the case that the HUI is behaving exactly within the historical context of it's bull market and should be relatively near it's ultimate low both in terms of price and timing. I will admit that the most recent 4 months, in particular, have indeed been agonizing. Painfully agonizing. But viewed in the context of similar HUI setups, such as occurred in January - March 2003, March -May 2005, September 2006 and July 2007, perhaps one can recognize our present situation as something we've not only seen before, but also have every sensible expectation for a bullish resolution. To get to the specifics, let's look at some weekly charts of the HUI miner's index from the inception of its bull in late 2000, track the major rallies and retracements right up to our current 2013 time frame, and see if my optimism appears justified. Sound good? OK, let's begin with this weekly chart of HUI which covers the initial window of time (2000 - 2003). Click on any chart to ENLARGE What we see is a powerful rally that appreciated from $35.31 to $154.99 (a 339% gain) and then retested a 50% retracement one time. Our next chart puts the action of latter 2002 through 2005 into view. Using the test of the 50% retracement in the previous chart as our low, we see another powerful rally that yielded a low to peak gain of 179%. What we also observe is that the 50% retracement of this enormous rally was tested not once, or twice....but three times. We also measure that price rebounded northward off the 50% retracement level to yield a 48.5% gain - which was entirely taken back with a third test of the 50% level. The next mega rally is seen in the following chart spanning all of 2005 - 2007. Again, I have used the 50% retracement level of the previous rally to spot the low of this rally. We see another awesome gain of 142%. We also note some gyrating bounces off the 50% retracement of this rally that provide gains in the neighborhood of 37%. Curiously, we also have three tests of the 50% retracement - as we saw in the previous chart. Equally curious is the placement of these tests. The first two are somewhat close together on the left side of the consolidation while the third test is the concluding low. Our next chart gives us a clear view of how the HUI behaved in 2007 - 2010. A strong rally off the previous 50% retracement level provides a healthy 82% gain in just under 7 months. This rally retests the 50% retracement three times - each 6 weeks apart - then the unthinkable happens.....the bottom falls out and price plummets. The eight year cycle low in gold and the massive deflation occurring in the financial markets inflict massive damage on the mining sector (and every other sector, for that matter). And of all things, the 50% retracement level that would otherwise be expected to hold price at $400 in the consolidation phase became the exact retracement level that eventually held price from falling much below $167. (Price stopped falling at the 150% level on the chart above). Well, it's time to look at the most important chart of the day. This is the weekly HUI miner's index from 2008 - 2013. Wow - look at that 325% gain! But hold on.......there is that 50% retracement metric again. And the 40%ish rebound that always seems to get taken away just as the bulls think they have it in the bag, again. And three retests, again. Right at the 50% level. And the curious placement of the retests. The first two on the far left and a final 'blow you mind' at the far right just as the consolidation comes to its exhausting conclusion. Hummmmm....... are you thinking what I'm thinking? Well, in case you are not sure, here is what I am thinking: the HUI has yielded 5 huge rallies during it's bull to date. Each retraced 50% before beginning a new rally, except for the 2008 example which tried to hold the 50% level and failed. Several rallies featured a 'fake out' rebound sporting a gain in the range of 40%. And the final or third retest of the 50% retracement level always located the genesis of the next huge rally. Well, except for 2008, that is. I really don't think this is 2008 all over again. Not with the world's Central Banks devaluing their currencies as aggressively as they are. And, we are years before gold's next 8 year cycle low is due. So, I think we are at the tail end of another HUI consolidation that, like all the others, will catapult the miner's index hundreds of percent higher over the next year and begin not too long from now.  $10.00 one week trial subscription. This posting includes an audio/video/photo media file: Download Now

QE3 – Pay Attention If You Are in the Real Estate Market Posted: 03 Feb 2013 09:30 AM PST With QE3, we are essentially being bought out with our own money…and unemployment is being used to facilitate this process in a very clever manner. Monetary inflation is currently being offset by labor deflation. The way you avoid collapse is by printing money and stealing assets. The way you avoid inflation is with labor deflation.

Liam Halligan: Falling yen set to spark renewed currency wars Posted: 03 Feb 2013 09:30 AM PST By Liam Halligan The Telegraph, London Saturday, February 2, 2013 http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/liamhalligan/9844314/Falling-... History shows that currency disputes can escalate from rhetorical spats into disastrously counterproductive economic conflict. In September 2010 the Brazilian Finance Minister, Guido Mantega, pointed a rhetorical finger at the United States and accused the world's largest economy of conducting a "currency war." Suggesting that emerging markets were being unfairly squeezed by a falling dollar, which makes US exports more competitive, Mantega lit the touch paper on a controversy that won't go away. For now "currency wars" are a relatively arcane debate limited to foreign exchange specialists and diplomats. But this issue has already adversely affected hundreds of millions of people who consider themselves largely immune to the vicissitudes of international markets, not least in the UK. History shows, also, such currency disputes can escalate from rhetorical spats into disastrously counter-productive economic conflict. "Currency wars" have hit the headlines anew in recent weeks, given Japan's attempts to force down the yen. Freshly installed prime minister Shinzo Abe, determined to stimulate a moribund economy, has ordered Japan's ultra-conservative central bank to be more expansionary. ... Dispatch continues below ... ADVERTISEMENT Get the real story about the precious metals from the Sprott Precious Metals Round Table Now you don't have to travel to attend a financial conference to hear Sprott Asset Management's precious metals experts -- Eric Sprott, Rick Rule, and John Embry. They'll be holding a round-table discussion via the Internet at 2 p.m. ET Tuesday, February 12, and you can be part of it. Among their topics: -- Why are precious metals such a compelling investment opportunity? -- Why are non-G7 central banks buying gold? Do Western central banks have any left? -- Why are investors buying as much silver as gold in dollar terms? What does this mean for the price of silver? -- Is the growing supply deficit of platinum and palladium going to push their prices higher? To register for this Internet conference and participate from the comfort of your own home or office, please visit: http://w.on24.com/r.htm?e=579230&s=1&k=70B829852A33CD255CC2A43ED63D18D0 The Bank of Japan has announced it will raise its inflation target to 2 percent while trying to reach that goal "at the earliest possible date" and phasing in hefty government debt purchases. Governor Masaaki Shirikawa will also be replaced by a more compliant successor when he retires in April. Japan has been treading economic water for over 20 years, ever since its almighty real estate bubble burst in the early 1990s. Still the world's second-largest economy when the credit crunch began in late 2007, the country has since slipped back to third-place and counting, its GDP having contracted for six of the last eight quarters. Despite all that, Abe's decision to take drastic measures has sparked a chorus of complaints. The yen spent 2012 oscillating around 80 to the dollar. Since then it has fallen rapidly and is now approaching 93 to the US currency. Most analysts expect a further slide -- not least as the central bank is now committed to aggressive monetary measures and a higher inflation target. This has big implications for other Asian exporters, as a weaker yen makes Japanese goods cheaper in foreign markets. Since the middle of last year, the South Korean won, for instance, has risen over 30 percent against the yen. That's why politicians in Asia's fourth-largest economy, which competes with Japan in many sectors including autos and electronics, were last week threatening measures to discourage capital from flowing into the won, stopping it rising even more. Germany also is deeply concerned about the yen's recent fall and the prospect of further weakness. With an eye on his country's all-important export sector, Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann recently mauled Tokyo's new affinity for loose money, referring to "alarming infringements" and an "end to central bank autonomy." The danger is that semi-covert moves to depreciate a currency then become aggressive, jingoistic devaluations. Such retaliatory "beggar-thy-neighbour" policies sparked the explicit capital controls and sky-high trade barriers of the early 1930s that, in turn, eviscerated global commerce and caused the Great Depression. It's a historical lesson Germany's central banker was keen to recall. "Whether intended or not, one consequence" of Japan's action "could be the increased politicisation of the exchange rate," Weidmann said. "Until now the international monetary system got through the crisis without competitive devaluations and I hope very much it stays that way." As a longstanding critic of excessively loose monetary policy, I'm not particularly impressed by Tokyo's latest move. The Japanese people would be much better served by courageous reforms to increase labour market flexibility and expose their zombie banks to reality, so unleashing, once more, their nation's huge commercial talents. Having said that, while the yen has fallen more than 10 percent against the dollar and 15 percent against the euro since Abe took power, it must be recognised that for several years after the credit crunch Japan suffered from an artificial appreciation. This was because of Tokyo's refusal to engage in the "extraordinary measures" taken by leading central banks elsewhere. Since early 2008, for instance, the US Federal Reserve has expanded its balance sheet by 220 percent. Even the European Central Bank, relatively late to the money-printing party, has now clocked-up a 98 percent expansion. In contrast, the Bank of Japan, largely eschewing quantitative easing in recent years, has overseen balance sheet growth of 30 percent over the last four years -- large under normal circumstances but, in these incredible times, a model of monetary probity. Currency movements are caused, the economic textbooks tell us, not only by trade flows but, above all, by interest rate differentials. In a world of near-zero Western interest rates -- negative, if adjusted for inflation -- the usual rules don't apply. Currency values are now overwhelmingly driven by the extent to which central banks print money. This ongoing "ugly contest" among the so-called advanced economies is itself a result of attempts by the Western political classes, via QE, to artificially inflate asset prices, bail out busted banks, and suppress real bond yields while debasing and devaluing the debts we owe the rest of the world. Yet this disgraceful policy, while good for asset-rich Western elites, not least politically connected bankers, is a disaster for middle-income savers, not least pensioners, as the value of their home currency is destroyed. Oh, and now, as some of us have long predicted, QE is in danger of causing currency conflicts that could ultimately spark protectionism and all the economic damage that entails. To understand what's really going on here, headline nominal exchange rates should be ignored in favour of real effective exchange rates -- which give a weighted measure of each country's currency against their actual trading partners. Since September 2007, as a direct result of unprecedented Western money-printing and Tokyo's refusal to do the same, the yen has appreciated no less than 22 percent in real effective terms -- a body blow to Japan's export sector. While eurozone politicians have lately been bleating about the yen, the single currency is currently down 5 percent in real effective terms over the same period -- something that has disproportionately helped Germany, of course. The dollar's real effective exchange rate has also fallen, by more than 6 percent, since September 2007, and there's likely much more to come. In late January the Fed's balance sheet topped $3,000 billion (L1,910 billion) for the first time. If the US central bank keeps virtually printing at the current pace of $85 billion a month for the rest of the year, as recently indicated, we'll see another 30 percent expansion by 2014. When it comes to currency debasement, though, the UK is in a class of its own. Our jaw-dropping 350 percent central bank balance sheet expansion has engineered a 15 percent drop in the real effective sterling exchange rate since the start of 2008. For now, a lot of the UK's QE money remains "inert" and therefore not yet inflationary, the banking sector so far refusing to lend it on to firms and households -- which is one reason the UK economy remains so weak. This standoff will continue, in my view, until the banks have blackmailed the British Government into following the Fed by sucking-up toxic corporate "assets" as well as government bonds, shoving yet more losses onto taxpayers. Such kleptocratic nonsense must stop. Not least because, as Prudential CEO Tidjane Thiam has told my colleague Helia Ebrahimi, by extending QE further the UK would simply be "storing long-term trouble by minimising short-term pain." That trouble will come in the form of runaway inflation, another financial collapse, and even more deeply entrenched moral hazard. It will also manifest itself, unless wise heads soon prevail, in the form of an all-out trade war. ----- Liam Halligan is chief economist at Prosperity Capital Management. The views expressed are his own. * * * Join GATA here: California Resource Investment Conference Saturday-Sunday, February 23-24, 2013 Hyatt Regency Indian Wells Resort and Spa Palm Desert, California http://www.cambridgehouse.com/event/california-resource-investment-confe... * * * Support GATA by purchasing DVDs of our London conference in August 2011 or our Dawson City conference in August 2006: http://www.goldrush21.com/order.html Or by purchasing a colorful GATA T-shirt: http://gata.org/tshirts Or a colorful poster of GATA's full-page ad in The Wall Street Journal on January 31, 2009: http://gata.org/node/wallstreetjournal Help keep GATA going GATA is a civil rights and educational organization based in the United States and tax-exempt under the U.S. Internal Revenue Code. Its e-mail dispatches are free, and you can subscribe at: http://www.gata.org To contribute to GATA, please visit: http://www.gata.org/node/16 ADVERTISEMENT Opinion Around the World Is Changing in Favor of Gold -- Find Out Why When Deutschebank calls gold "good money" and paper "bad money". ... http://www.gata.org/node/11765 When the president of the German central bank, the Bundesbank, pays tribute to gold as "a timeless classic". ... http://www.forbes.com/sites/ralphbenko/2012/09/24/signs-of-the-gold-stan... When a leading member of the policy committee of the People's Bank of China calls the gold standard "an excellent monetary system". ... http://www.forbes.com/sites/ralphbenko/2012/10/01/signs-of-the-gold-stan... When a CNN reporter writes in The China Post that the "gold commission" plank in the 2012 Republican platform will "reverberate around the world". ... http://www.thegoldstandardnow.org/key-blogs/1563-china-post-the-gop-gold... 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Head &amp; Shoulder Tops in Gold and Silver Stocks ..Is the Fat Lady Singing ? Posted: 02 Feb 2013 11:08 PM PST Rambus writes: In the weekend report we looked at some of the precious metals stock indexes that are showing some massive H&S topping patterns. These type of patterns are distribution patterns and the bigger they are the bigger the move down in time and price. Could these massive topping patterns be the end of the bull market for the precious metals stocks? I think on a one or two year basis these H&S topping patterns could put a big dent in the bull market for the precious metals stocks if the necklines are broken to the downside which remains to be seen yet.

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