Gold World News Flash |
- GoldSeek.com Radio: Richard Daughty & CEO, David Franklin, and your host Chris Waltzek
- Chinese New Year Pulls Bid
- Goldrunner: We?re at the Cusp of a Parabolic Move In Gold & Silver! Here are the Fundamentals & Technical Set Up to That End
- Jordan Trendsman- What’s Going on With Gold – YouTube
- Market Review- The Market will NOT Crash, Japan will be the First to Fall in the Currency Wars – YouTube
- Goldrunner: We're at the Cusp of a Parabolic Move In Gold & Silver! Here are the Fundamentals & Technical Set Up to That End
- THE CARTEL'S BLITZKRIEG METALS ATTACK: Andy Hoffman
- Silver Prices Remain in a Consolidation Mood
- Guests: Adrian Ash, Marin Katusa, Ben Rabidoux – February 16, 2013 – YouTube
- Got Gold Report - February 17, 2013
- The Greatest Business Opportunity Of The Millennium
- Central bank gold demand at post-1964 high
- Will John Paulson’s Fund Liquidate Gold? – YouTube
- LIFE ISN'T FAIR
- David P. Goldman: Gold gives you extremely important signals
- Shipping Indexes Falling Dramatically – What Does That Mean?
- Here Are THE Facts: Less Gov't = Less Gov't Spending = Less Taxes + Less Unemployment & a Stronger Economy
- Trader Dan On Backwardation
- Jim's Mailbox
- Importance of the G20: Not What You Think
- Buffett's Measure of Stock Market Health, the TMC-to-GNP Ratio, Conveys Concerns
- GoldMoney article: The final countdown
- What Will Happen to Gold and Silver Stocks if the Stock Market Tanks?
- Investing in the World’s Most Unstoppable Trend
- QE3 – Pay Attention If You Are in the Real Estate Market
- Gold: What Goes Up, Goes Down
- Moscow G20 meeting tackles global financial issues – YouTube
- Gold 1550 to 1570 For a Range Trade, If It Gets There
- Money & Markets – Week of 02.17.2013
- Obama's Next Big Housing Market Giveaway to the Bankster Mafia
- Copper - Poised For Breakout While Gold And Silver Falter - Timing Is Now
- Ted Butler: Bullish on Gold But JP Morgan Excessively Short in Silver
- Copper Poised For Breakout While Gold And Silver Falter
- Gold Cycle Analysis On February 15th Gold Price Drop
| GoldSeek.com Radio: Richard Daughty & CEO, David Franklin, and your host Chris Waltzek Posted: 18 Feb 2013 07:00 PM PST Show Highlights: Guest Interviews. Headline news & the Market Weatherman Report. Host answers phone calls and email questions. Guests: David Franklin, CEO, Sprott Private Wealth Richard Daughty, The Mogambo Guru Report | ||||||||
| Posted: 18 Feb 2013 12:04 AM PST We had a very quiet week all in all in terms of the markets and most stocks with some moving well but many failing their moves higher. The volume absolutely dried up this past week with Chinese New Year in full swing as I warned about last weekend. Gold and silver were absolutely hammered back to strong support levels as a result of no Chinese buying. It's no fun, but it's great if you are a bargain hunter with gold and silver on sale here now. | ||||||||
| Posted: 17 Feb 2013 11:37 PM PST [CENTER][B]"Follow the [COLOR=#0000ff][U]munKNEE"[/U][/COLOR] [/B]via twitter & [B]Facebook [/B]or Register to receive your daily[B] Intelligence Report [/B](Recipients restricted to only 1000 active subscribers)[/CENTER] When are Gold and Silver going to start a huge parabolic move up?* I, personally, think that we are sitting at the cusp [of such happening]*as we speak on an intermediate-term basis….Below are… the fundamentals and technical set-up [to that end]. So writes Goldrunner* ([url]www.GoldrunnerFractalAnalysis.com[/url]) in edited excerpts from his most recent newsletter to subscribers (excluding his illustrative charts which are only available to subscribers) posted here with permission. Go here to subscribe and receive his unique analyses with one-of-a-kind charting. [INDENT]This post is presented compliments of [B]www.FinancialArticleSummariesToday.com (A site for sore eyes and inquisitive minds) and [COLOR=#ff0000]www.munKNEE.com [/COLOR](Your Key to Makin... | ||||||||
| Jordan Trendsman- What’s Going on With Gold – YouTube Posted: 17 Feb 2013 10:11 PM PST Check our website daily at... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit http://www.figanews.com for full Content ]]  | ||||||||
| Posted: 17 Feb 2013 10:07 PM PST Check our website daily at... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit http://www.figanews.com for full Content ]]  | ||||||||
| Posted: 17 Feb 2013 09:00 PM PST "Follow the munKNEE" via twitter & Facebook or Register to receive your daily Intelligence Report (Recipients restricted to only 1000 active subscribers) When are Gold and Silver going to start a huge parabolic move up? I,
Goldrunner goes on to say in further edited excerpts: 1) The U.S. and other countries NEED Gold vastly higher to balance their balance sheets – there is no other way to deal with their huge debt loads except a Deflationary Depression. They have chosen a Stagflation Depression since a Deflationary Depression would be the end of the Fed. 2) The U.S. still has about $87 Trillion of debt that is not yet on its balance sheet according to Amerman. In order to get the debt onto the U.S. balance sheet, it would require the Fed to print a lot more Dollars. 3) Periodically for the last century, or so, the U.S. has devalued the Dollar to get out of these messes, and the DJIA to Gold ratio has approached a 1 to 1 ratio. In the early 30's the Dollar was devalued 75% as the price of Gold was mechanically raised from $20 per ounce to $35 per ounce. In the late 70's the USD was devalued about 75% via Dollar printing, mostly through the bank multiplier system. This time the Dollar printing must come via debt monetization/ QE. The point of the ramp up in debt monetization has to be timed to the cycle since the first real parabolic move up in Gold like in 1979 will start the clock ticking for when all of the debt must be on the U.S. Balance Sheet. 4) All of the talk about the Economy recovering is complete crap. The massive debts are still there, haunting the economy. All of the unfunded debts ($87 Trillion?) must be defaulted upon, one way or the other. The Fed is printing Dollars to cover around 60% of the U.S. expenses. The coming US Dollar Devaluation will likely approach the 75% level, and it will affect everybody in the States – bank accounts, Bond holdings, Stock holdings, Pension Plans, Life Insurance Policies – practically everything will be devalued by the same percentage as the USD. Only items with intrinsic value have a chance to rise enough to neutralize the Great Devaluation, and a few items will likely outperform. 5) We expect the price charts to continue to track those of the late 70's fractal, since the Dollar Devaluation is fractal. Gold will be the inverse of the U.S. Dollar Devaluation – it has to be since Gold is the ultimate constant value and is denominated in Dollars in the U.S.. Because of this, Gold will be the first item that fully reflects the Dollar Devaluation like the late 70's. This will allow physical Gold holders to rotate out of full valuation due to Dollar Devaluation into asset classes that lag like in the late 70's. For instance the DJIA Stocks did not reach full re-pricing in devalued Dollars until the economy eventually recovered so that earnings and dividends recovered. 6) Silver and the PM Stocks carry more leverage than Gold at this point in the cycle so they will likely outperform going forward like the late 70's where the PM Stocks made a final huge move after Gold and Silver topped. This was mainly because reserve valuations lag the rise in the price of Gold and Silver with companies bidding up those resource valuations late in the cycle. Some are suggesting that "GLD" and other ETFs have hurt the Gold stocks this time around. That is crazy because we know that the PM Stocks traded much like today in…[the late 70's] due to the shorting of the PM Stocks at this point in the cycle. GLD simply tracks Gold. Those choosing to invest in PM Stocks do so mainly for two reasons:
The leverage of the PM Stocks to Gold comes from 2 sources:
7) The short-term fundamentals are now screaming "Bottom." The Gold shorts are "going long" per the COT numbers while the always long small specs are going hog wild short…. 8) The Central Banks have been heavily buying so they will own Gold to cover the balance sheets problems. They have placed a solid bottom under the price of Gold that has supported the sideways correction in Gold. They only have till Gold reaches the lower log channel bottom to do so, and we are almost there. 9) ……[The information in this point reserved for subscribers.] 10) The current horrid sentiment toward the PM Sector as we reach the termination portion of this correction is to be expected as JS is pointing out. Most countries need Gold much higher as the cycle plays out so they are all aggressively devaluing their paper currencies…The paper currency indices will trade sideways in price while their values will move sharply lower to the tune of 70%, or more. Think about it – $87 Trillion Dollars are the needs for the U.S. according to Dan. We don't have it, and we can't get it in taxes – we have to print it all! We have discussed [in previous articles]: 1) The Fractal relationship of Gold, Silver, the PM Stocks, the DJIA, the USD Index, Copper, and other price charts between…[the late 70's] and today…. 2) The Fractal comparison between today and 2005…. 3) The Dollar Printing via the Fed Monetary Base Chart is…again breaking out to the upside. The correction in the Fed Monetary Base is over as the next run in debt monetization is now in progress, and it will drive the price of Gold vastly higher! Conclusion So, what is my answer to the question in the title? The fundamentals of massive Dollar printing, the COT numbers, the new expansion in the Fed Monetary Base, and the cycle all point up. Most PM investors are panicking, down. This is what JS has been ranting about, does it not?
…It looks to me like we are waiting for many of "the PM Bulls" to get off at the 3 Fan-line Station so Gold, Silver, and the PM Stocks can rip higher, leaving many to chase the PM Train. For the moment, GOLDRUNNER ~ Email me at GOLDRUNNER44@AOL.COM with your questions and comments.
*Goldrunner offers a subscription service which provides detailed technical analysis of where the price of gold, silver and precious metal stocks are going in each stage of their respective bull runs. This service comes with detailed charting based on conventional technical analysis and his proprietary fractal analysis based on the '70s. Go here to subscribe.
Related Articles: 1. Governments Will Want – Will NEED – Much Higher Gold Prices! Here's Why
That governments will want – and will NEED – much, much higher gold and silver prices in the future is counter intuitive, given that they have done everything within their power to throttle back and to keep a lid on bullion prices. Let me explain why. Words: 1300 2. Goldrunner Update: Gold, Silver & PM Stock Sentiment Sucks BUT the Fundamentals Are Off the Wall! Sentiment in the precious metals sector is in the toilet yet the fundamentals for the sector are off the walls positive. That is not secret, but it is what creates huge market moves in the direction of the fundamentals. In fact, market management will never move price against the underlying fundamentals for too long a period of time. 3. Goldrunner: What We 'Know' & 'Don't Know' About Where Gold, Silver and PM Stocks Are Going One never knows exactly where Precious Metals are going so I always try to keep in mind a list of items that are probable based on the facts that are evident. I call this "what we know" and "what we don't know" so let's take a look what we "know" and "don't know" at this point in time. Words: 872 4. Goldrunner: Gold & Silver Bottoming This Week & Setting Up for Parabolic Moves In Both This week could see a very significant historical bottoming point of interest for Gold and for Silver. Big moves late in the cycle for Gold and for Silver come after long sideways movements suggesting that both precious metals are ready to go parabolic.
6. Goldrunner: HUI Index Could Go As High As 1000 in 2013! Here's Why
7. Goldrunner: Silver to Rocket to $60 – $68 and Then Much Higher
8. Goldrunner: Price Target of $10,000 to $12,000 for Gold Still Holds
9. THE CARTEL'S BLITZKRIEG METALS ATTACK: Andy Hoffman Posted: 17 Feb 2013 08:55 PM PST Andy Hoffman of Miles Franklin joins me to discuss the latest attacks and says, "For the first time I've ever seen the cartel doesn't even use cover any more. They have been hitting gold and silver with impunity. It's the most oversold I've seen in at least three years, and all the fundamentals are stronger than they've ever been. I would say that today is the most undervalued gold and silver prices have been in my entire 11 years in this sector." | ||||||||
| Silver Prices Remain in a Consolidation Mood Posted: 17 Feb 2013 05:40 PM PST So far this year silver prices appear to be range trading at around the $30.00/oz level. Gold prices have been under considerable selling pressure which in turn has tended to cap any rally that silver could muster. The anecdotal evidence suggests that the demand for physical silver remains strong, however over on the COMEX the paper shorts appear to have the whip hand.
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| Guests: Adrian Ash, Marin Katusa, Ben Rabidoux – February 16, 2013 – YouTube Posted: 17 Feb 2013 05:22 PM PST Check our website daily at... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit http://www.figanews.com for full Content ]]  | ||||||||
| Got Gold Report - February 17, 2013 Posted: 17 Feb 2013 04:35 PM PST SOUTHEAST TEXAS – Vultures (Got Gold Report Subscribers) please log in to the Got Gold Report subscriber site and navigate to the Got Gold Report Latest Video Section to view a new special video GGR uploaded today, Sunday, February 17. We look at what we might expect to see at a sure-enough bottom of the indexes which track the junior miners and explorers. The jury is still out, but 2013 could be an echo of 2009. To continue reading, please log in or click here to subscribe to a Got Gold Report Membership | ||||||||
| The Greatest Business Opportunity Of The Millennium Posted: 17 Feb 2013 04:07 PM PST Dear CIGAs, The gold mining business will be looked back on in time as the greatest business opportunity of the millennium. That which polite groups look on today as an investment pariah will outperform the tech stocks of 2006-07 and hold their price levels rather than crashing like a South Sea bubble. Today you Continue reading The Greatest Business Opportunity Of The Millennium | ||||||||
| Central bank gold demand at post-1964 high Posted: 17 Feb 2013 04:05 PM PST Goldmoney | ||||||||
| Will John Paulson’s Fund Liquidate Gold? – YouTube Posted: 17 Feb 2013 03:49 PM PST Check our website daily at... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit http://www.figanews.com for full Content ]]  | ||||||||
| Posted: 17 Feb 2013 03:31 PM PST While average Joes everywhere now see $200 less in their pay envelopes every month thanks to Obama's reinstatement of the payroll tax, poor Mark Zuckerberg, the hapless billionaire that started Facebook and his buddies got a multibillion dollar tax break. Obama preaches "fairness" in paying taxes; that being those with jobs should be taxed, and taxed, and taxed some more. Facebook is actually getting a $429 million tax REFUND. Facebook Gets a Multibillion-Dollar Tax Break It hasn't drawn much attention, but Facebook's first annual earnings report contains an accounting gem: a multibillion-dollar tax deduction for the cost of executive stock options and share awards. Even though Facebook (FB) reported $1.1 billion in pre-tax profits from U.S. operations in 2012, it will probably pay zero federal and state taxes—and even receive a federal tax refund of about $429 million—according to a Feb. 14 statement from Citizens for Tax Justice. The tax-research and -lobbying organization says companies such as Facebook should treat stock options the same in their reports to shareholders as they do in their tax filings. Citizens for Tax Justice calls the tax footnotes in Facebook's Jan. 30 financial statement "an amazing admission," but there's nothing illegal about the breaks the company is claiming. Companies like Facebook are allowed to treat the cost of non-cash compensation, such as stock options, as an expense that reduces profits, essentially the way they treat cash compensation such as salaries. The difference is that Facebook—unlike, say, General Motors (GM)—relies heavily on stock options and restricted stock units as a form of compensation. It paid out a lot during its years as a private company that it must now recognize on its income statement and balance sheet. You won't find any $429 million tax refund in Facebook's financial statements. Indeed, the company says it had a $559 million federal tax liability in 2012. But that liability isn't an actual payment. In a footnote, the company also said that it had a $1.03 billion "excess tax benefit" last year related to "stock option exercises and other equity awards." That benefit is what flips the federal tax liability into a refund. (A small portion is applied against state taxes.) Facebook says that it anticipates reducing its tax liability in the future by an additional $2.17 billion by using further net operating loss carry-forwards that it has banked. Facebook spokeswoman Ashley Zandy declined to discuss the tax break but pointed to the transcript of Facebook executives' conference call with analysts. On the call, Chief Financial Officer David Ebersman cited the accumulated tax benefits and noted that the company ended the fiscal year with nearly $10 billion in cash and investments, "giving us great flexibility and risk protection." http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2013-02-15/facebook-gets-a-multi-billion-dollar-tax-break | ||||||||
| David P. Goldman: Gold gives you extremely important signals Posted: 17 Feb 2013 03:00 PM PST 5p ET Sunday, February 17, 2013 Dear Friend of GATA and Gold: In an interview with financial writer Lars Schall, market analyst David P. Goldman joins those who lately have noted that gold mine production is of little consequence to the gold price because at any particular moment 25 or 30 times amount of gold produced annually is hoarded and available for trade. "So a change in desire to hold gold as an investment," Goldman says, "is a much more important determinant of the gold price than changes in current mining supply or changes in current consumption of jewelry or industrial applications." That's why, Goldman adds, the gold price is the crucial indicator of inflationary expectations -- and why, GATA might add, it is so much the target of central bank manipulation. Goldman's interview is headlined "Gold Gives You Extremely Important Signals" and it's posted at Schall's Internet site here: http://www.larsschall.com/2013/02/17/gold-gives-you-extremely-important-... CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer ADVERTISEMENT How to profit in the new year with silver -- Future Money Trends is offering a special 16-page silver report with our forecast for 2013 that includes profiles of nine companies and technical analysis of their stock performance. Six of the companies have market capitalizations of less than $800 million and one company has a market cap of only $30 million. The most exciting of these companies will begin production in a few weeks and has a market cap of just $150 million. Half of all proceeds from the sale of this report will be donated to the Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee to support its efforts exposing manipulation and fraud in the gold and silver markets. To learn about this report, please visit: http://www.futuremoneytrends.com/index.php?option=com_content&id=376&tmp... Join GATA here: California Resource Investment Conference * * * Support GATA by purchasing DVDs of our London conference in August 2011 or our Dawson City conference in August 2006: http://www.goldrush21.com/order.html Or by purchasing a colorful GATA T-shirt: Or a colorful poster of GATA's full-page ad in The Wall Street Journal on January 31, 2009: http://gata.org/node/wallstreetjournal Help keep GATA going GATA is a civil rights and educational organization based in the United States and tax-exempt under the U.S. Internal Revenue Code. Its e-mail dispatches are free, and you can subscribe at: To contribute to GATA, please visit: ADVERTISEMENT GoldMoney adds Singapore vaulting option In addition to its precious metals storage facilities in Hong Kong, Switzerland, Toronto, and the United Kingdom, now with GoldMoney you can store gold and silver in Singapore in a high-security vault operated by Brink's Singapore Pte Limited. To find out more about the new vault, please visit: http://www.goldmoney.com/singapore?gmrefcode=gata GoldMoney customers can take delivery of any number of gold, silver, platinum, and palladium bars from any GoldMoney vault, as well as personally collect their bars stored in the Hong Kong, Switzerland, and U.K. vaults. It's easy to open an account, add funds, and liquidate your investment. For more information, visit: http://www.goldmoney.com/?gmrefcode=gata | ||||||||
| Shipping Indexes Falling Dramatically – What Does That Mean? Posted: 17 Feb 2013 01:17 PM PST "Follow the munKNEE" via twitter & Facebook or Register to receive our daily Intelligence Report (Recipients restricted to only 1000 active subscribers) The Baltic Dry Index is an index of dry shipping lease rates. It reflects how much it So writes Katchum in edited excerpts from a recent post* on his blog (http://katchum.blogspot.ca) entitled Baltic Dry drops.
Katchum goes on to say in further edited excerpts: There is a high correlation between BDI [see chart below] and the Chinese economy. If the BDI drops, the commodity trade drops – together with the Chinese economy - [go here for today's latest chart]. The Panamax and Supramax (for smaller ships) has also dropped considerably, which confirms the slowdown in every sector of the freight transport economy.  [Below is the ClarkSea Index which is a weighted index indicating average earnings of Tanker, Bulk, Gas and Container vessels which shows that weakness in shipping is across the board.]
 [The weakness in shipping as shown above] is bad for industrial commodities going forward. [It bears watching closely so see what the future holds.]
*http://katchum.blogspot.be/2012/01/baltic-dry-drops.html (Written by Albert Sung; Subscribe to Katchum's macro-economic blog; Sung is also an accomplish pianist and composer as well as financial analyst. Listen to an assortment (24) of his classical compostions here.)
Related Articles: 1. Why Did the Baltic Dry Index Collapse? Here's Why The Baltic Dry Index is generally viewed as a leading indicator of global economic activity as dry bulk primarily consists of commodities such as building materials, coal, metallic ores and grain. My research, however, indicates that global manufacturing demand has very little to do with it but, rather, Chinese manufacturing demand – but not the actual level of manufacturing as measured by the CFLP Manufacturing PMI. [Let me explain.] 2. The Baltic Dry Index: Why You Should Use It and How to Do So The Baltic Dry Index is, in my opinion, the best leading economic indicator to follow when the media is telling us the economy is looking great one week and then predicting a double dip recession the next. Let me explain. Words: 933 3. Abandon Ship! Baltic Dry Index on the Rocks of a European Recession There has been an alarming development for the obscure, yet instructive Baltic Dry Index…[which] tracks the cost of shipping major raw materials (iron ore, coal, grain, cement, copper, sand and gravel, fertilizer and even plastic granules)…It is down 48.4% in the last month…[and] down 54.4% in the last three months. [Let me explain why and how to invest accordingly.] Words: 200 4. China Continues Buying Gold Like There Was No Tomorrow! Here Are the Impressive Numbers China continues to buy gold with both hands, keeping up all the gold they produce and importing even more! Imports were up 50% in October vs. the previous month; up 68% in November and up 74% in December. What will January bring given the continued weakness in the price of gold? Probably even more buying! 5. Katchum Comments on Gold, Silver & Recession There are literally thousands of economic blogs out there and most don't have much to offer. One exception is a blog by "Katchum" that is dedicated to monitoring breaking global economic news on a day to day basis and, as such, provides unique insights into, and analysis of, various aspects of the financial markets, commodities and the economies of the world. Below is his latest post. If you like it why not subscribe? Words: 642; Charts: 6 6. Here's An Easy Way to Identify Gold & Gold Miner Market Tops and Bottoms It's amazing! Every day I learn something new. I have just come across a very powerful tool that identifies market tops and bottoms in both the gold price and the gold mining industry valuation. Let me share it with you. Words: 352; Charts: 4 7. 7 Indications That Gold & Silver Bearishness Most Likely Will Continue This article looks at 7 reasons why gold and silver should experience further weakness over the days/weeks ahead. (Words: 206; Charts: 5) 8. Now You, Too, Can Predict When China Will Overtake America Using This Cool Interactive Tool America's GDP is still roughly twice as big as China's (using market exchange rates). To predict when the gap might be closed, The Economist has updated its interactive chart below with the latest GDP numbers. This allows you to plug in your own assumptions about real GDP growth in China and America, inflation rates and the yuan's exchange rate against the dollar. [Plugging in our assumptive] numbers China will overtake America in 2018. [Share your prediction in the "Comments" section at the bottom of the page.] Of the 1000s of financial sites on the internet many contain biased, shallow, unbalanced and uncomplimentary commentary on the state of the Chinese economy and economic system – so much so that the state government has blocked access to said sites. This site prides itself in posting objective, substantive and balanced articles containing insightful analysis of the world's financial affairs including those of China. Check them out. As the globalization movement matures, countries like Mexico are becoming more capable and competitive. Its exports to the U.S. have grown at the expense of China over the past few years but it is questionable if such performance will be as good in the future. Here's why. Words: 470 | ||||||||
| Posted: 17 Feb 2013 11:41 AM PST "Follow the munKNEE" via twitter & Facebook or Register to receive our daily Intelligence Report (Recipients restricted to only 1000 active subscribers) The mainstream media wants us to believe that government spending is So writes Katchum in edited excerpts from a recent post* on his blog (http://katchum.blogspot.ca) entitled The Size Of Governments And The Effect On Their Economies.
Katchum goes on to say in further edited excerpts: It seems obvious to me that countries with a lot of government spending would create unemployment…[because] welfare states tend to eliminate the urge for people to look for jobs. Government Spending as a % of GDP The following chart gives the amount of government spending as a percentage of the country's GDP. From it we note that most developed countries (Japan, Canada, the United States and the countries of Europe, for example) have a lot of government spending, while emerging markets like Brazil and especially countries in the Asia-Pacific region (China, India, Hong Kong, Singapore, Taiwan) have less government….Based on this chart we can conclude that the stronger economies are the ones with the least government (Hong Kong, Singapore, Taiwan), while countries like Sweden, France and Belgium…[are] very inefficient due to large government involvement.
Fact #1: Higher Gov't Spending = Higher Unemployment As we add the most recent 2012 unemployment numbers to Chart 1, we get Chart 2. As you can see on Chart 2, countries with higher government involvement have, as a consequence, higher unemployment so there is a direct correlation between the size of government and unemployment. The PIIGS of Europe are the countries with highest unemployment in the world.
Fact #2: Higher Gov't Involvement = Higher Gov't Debt …A look at government debt-to-GDP for each country [shows that,] as more and more government is involved in the economy of a country, politicians will tend to spend more and more (at the expense of the taxpayer). The more government there is in a country, the more government debt there is as a percentage of GDP. The two countries that have the highest debt in the world are Japan and Greece with debt above 150%. The countries with the lowest government budgets are Saudi Arabia and Russia.
Fact #3: Higher Gov't Spending = Higher Personal Income Tax Rate The national median income of an individual is around $US 40,000/annum. If we add the personal income tax rate to Chart 1, we get Chart 4 [below]. Again, we can see that the size of government is in direct correlation with the tax rates. This also means that the European countries (with the most government) are the ones with the highest taxes. Higher taxation is most destructive to the private sector of the economy as it takes money from the competent people (free market capitalists) and gives it to the incompetent (government). [A notable point to make in this analysis] is that Saudi Arabia doesn't have income tax.
Conclusion [There you have it. Definitive proof that higher government involvement results in higher government spending, higher personal income taxes, higher unemployment and a weaker economy as a consequence.]
*http://seekingalpha.com/article/675871-the-size-of-governments-and-the-effect-on-their-economies (Written by Albert Sung; Subscribe to Katchum's macro-economic blog; Sung is also an accomplish pianist and composer as well as financial analyst. Listen to an assortment (24) of his classical compostions here.)
Other Katchum Articles: 1. Buffett's Measure of Stock Market Health, the TMC-to-GNP Ratio, Conveys Concerns Buffett's measure – the percentage of total market cap (TMC) relative to the U.S. GNP crossed 100% last week into stretched territory for the first time since 2007 which implies a mere return of around 3.3% annualized (including dividends) over the following years. [This post presents the components of the ratio and the conclusions drawn.] 2. China Continues Buying Gold Like There Was No Tomorrow! Here Are the Impressive Numbers China continues to buy gold with both hands, keeping up all the gold they produce and importing even more! Imports were up 50% in October vs. the previous month; up 68% in November and up 74% in December. What will January bring given the continued weakness in the price of gold? Probably even more buying! 3. Get Out of the U.S. Dollar and Buy Physical Gold Before It's Too Late – Here's Why Evidence suggests that the "Zero Hour Debt" line has been reached. Get out of the U.S. dollar [U.S. treasuries] and buy physical gold [or equities] before it's too late. It is the only way to protect yourself against a massive U.S. dollar devaluation to come in the next few months. [Let me explain why that is the case.] Words: 719; Charts: 5 4. Katchum Comments on Gold, Silver & Recession There are literally thousands of economic blogs out there and most don't have much to offer. One exception is a blog by "Katchum" that is dedicated to monitoring breaking global economic news on a day to day basis and, as such, provides unique insights into, and analysis of, various aspects of the financial markets, commodities and the economies of the world. Below is his latest post. If you like it why not subscribe? Words: 642; Charts: 6 5. Here's An Easy Way to Identify Gold & Gold Miner Market Tops and Bottoms It's amazing! Every day I learn something new. I have just come across a very powerful tool that identifies market tops and bottoms in both the gold price and the gold mining industry valuation. Let me share it with you. Words: 352; Charts: 4 6. 7 Indications That Gold & Silver Bearishness Most Likely Will Continue This article looks at 7 reasons why gold and silver should experience further weakness over the days/weeks ahead. (Words: 206; Charts: 5) | ||||||||
| Posted: 17 Feb 2013 11:38 AM PST Dear CIGAs, Many people writing in the gold sector now are drawn into articles written for the effect of sensationalism without the background knowledge or experience in the field to know the subject of their discussion. They usually deliver their writings as fact or from a perfect source. Backwardation in the gold market and Continue reading Trader Dan On Backwardation | ||||||||
| Posted: 17 Feb 2013 11:26 AM PST Jim Sinclair's Commentary CIGA Patrick's contribution to your learning: Theoretical on the surface but if you will cast aside your opinions and dwell on the concept, theoretical transforms itself into hard reality. Read this a few times before you dismiss it. Assume in this example the one ounce of gold was sold not for Continue reading Jim's Mailbox | ||||||||
| Importance of the G20: Not What You Think Posted: 17 Feb 2013 11:21 AM PST
There was something important coming from the G20 meeting, but it is not the currency wars that have captured so many imaginations in the media and blogosphere. It was about corporate taxes, but before turning to it, let's try to put the currency statement in perspective. As many recognize, the currency market is prone to being used to pursue beggar-thy-neighbor policies of competitive devaluations. The danger is that it leads to trade wars and then shooting wars. The rules of engagement, as they have evolved over the last quarter of a century or so, are essentially three-fold. First, exchange rates are not proper goals of policy. Economic growth and price stability are the proper goals of policy. Second, foreign exchange prices are best set by the market in a flexible way to help foster the adjustment process and a reduction of global disequilibrium in terms of trade and capital flows. Third, while avoiding excess volatility, currency prices ought to reflect underlying economic fundamentals and avoid chronic exchange rate misalignments. On those rare occasions when action, is needed, it should be coordinated and not unilateral. The G20 statement, like the G7 statement earlier in the week, restated these longstanding principles. That members agree not to target exchange rates for competitive purposes was a pointed reminder to Japanese officials to refrain from talking about bilateral exchange rate targets. And indeed, over the past couple of weeks, Japanese officials have changed their rhetoric and have not talked about specific dollar-yen rates. Rarely in stories about currency wars has China been cited. Yet, it is an indicated co-conspirator, as it were. The G20 reference to moving more rapidly toward market determined exchange rates and the importance of avoiding persistent misalignments was clearly addressed to China, and some other East Asian and Middle East countries. The rules of engagement allow and encourage countries to pursue monetary and fiscal policies directed at domestic goals. For several years Japan has been encouraged to reflate its economy. That it appears to be doing so is not problem. No one in the G7 or the G20 have objected to that. The criticism levied against Japanese officials is when they try to manage the currency, suggesting certain targets, and/or overt attempts by the6 government to undermine what is seen as the independence of the central bank. It also means that the (unconventional) easing of monetary policy by the Federal Reserve is also not an act of (currency) war. Leaving aside the occasional comment by Brazil's finance minister and a rare comment by a Chinese official, few in positions of responsibility accuse the US of engaging in a competitive devaluation. The referees of the rules of engagement as it were, like the IMF, the G20 and the G7 generally agree that although the risks may be there, the conditions and practices now do not meet the threshold of competitive devaluations, a currency war or trade war. We expect the rhetoric in the traditional and social media about currency wars will die down in the coming period. II The focus on currency wars distracts from other and arguably more important issues. Much of coverage of the G20 statement focused on the foreign exchange market, but has missed what is likely an even more important story. The G20 have begun a process that could lead to the largest overhaul of international corporate tax practices since the 1920s. The combination of the fiscal pressures at home and the increased importance of intellectual property (e.g., royalties, licensing fees) and questionable transfer pricing corporate practices has elicited a response. The official goal is to develop measures to stop tax arbitrage--the shifting of profits from home countries in order to pay lower taxes elsewhere. A recent OECD study found multinational companies were increasingly booking profits in different countries from where they were generated in order to avoid taxes. The role of intangibles, like intellectual property rights, services and brands have grown in importance but are difficult to value. International royalty and license fee payments paid to different subsidiaries within the same business group have soared. The growing volume of e-commerce also raises issues of the proper tax jurisdiction that are not handled well by the current tax rules. This comes even as OECD government have cut statutory corporate tax rates from an average of 32.6% in 2000 to 25.4% in 2011. The effective tax rate, which is what corporations actually pay, is often much lower due to assorted deductions and allowances. Recent reports showing that a number of large well-known global companies, such as Starbucks, Apple, Google, Amazon used complicated inter-company transaction to reduce their tax liabilities has helped spur official action. The big accounting firms are also being called out for the assistance they provide in helping businesses avoid taxes. Essentially, the OECD has called for, and the G20 appears to have signed off on, a new effort to modernize the international tax architecture, which could be ready in the next couple of years. Three committees have been established and more from them will likely be heard around the July G20 meeting. The UK will head up a committee to look at transfer prices and the sales to subsidiaries to shift profits from high to low tax jurisdictions. It is illegal, for example, to structure a particular transaction for the purpose of skirting the law (it is sometimes referred to as "kiting"). For example, it is unlawful for one to withdraw $5000 twice instead of withdrawing $10,000 once in order to avoid reporting requirements. Can the same principle apply to businesses? Germany will head up a committee that investigates way in which companies have reduced the tax base in the accounting of income and assets. France and the US will lead the third committee, looking at e-commerce in particular, and the proper tax jurisdictions. The Obama Administration has been wrestling with the same issue. Once we get past the sequester and the continuing resolution (authorizes government spending even without a budget), look for corporate tax reform to become more salient. The fact that it will come after the other events, gives Obama some leverage with the business community, even when it came to the fiscal cliff. It is ironic that Obama, who has been accused of being a socialist, is on record of favoring corporate tax reform that include a cut in the top corporate rate to 28% from 35%. More important than the loopholes he wants to close to pay for the tax cut, is how overseas earnings should be taxed. Currently, the US taxes corporate profits earned abroad only when it is repatriated--brought back to the US. Last month, the nonpartisan Congressional Research Service reported that US-based companies are increasingly shifting profits to tax havens such as Bermuda and Switzerland. Senator Sanders (VT) has introduced legislation to end the current tax deferral and force companies to pay taxes on their foreign earnings. Some studies suggest that the higher levels of cash US corporations are holding is partly a function of these tax avoidance efforts. At the end of last year, Obama expressed some sympathy for some form of territorial system, which taxes domestic not foreign income. It could exempt offshore corporate profits from US taxes, seemingly shifting the stance of the 2012 election campaign. Currently, France, the Netherlands, Belgium and Hong Kong employ a territorial tax system. The currency wars have been over-hyped. There is less there than meets the eye. The rules of engagement allow for countries to use monetary and fiscal policy for domestic goals. It does not sanction foreign exchange targeting. The real news from the G20 meeting is the formal beginning of a process that could very well lead the largest substantial change in international corporate tax system in almost a century.  | ||||||||
| Buffett's Measure of Stock Market Health, the TMC-to-GNP Ratio, Conveys Concerns Posted: 17 Feb 2013 11:15 AM PST "Follow the munKNEE" via twitter & Facebook or Register to receive our daily Intelligence Report (Recipients restricted to only 1000 active subscribers) Buffett's measure – the percentage of total market cap (TMC) relative to So writes Katchum in edited excerpts from a recent post* on his blog (http://katchum.blogspot.ca) entitled Correlation: Total Stock Market Index Vs. GDP: How to Value Dow Jones.
Katchum goes on to say in further edited excerpts: The Dow Jones U.S. Total Market Index The total stock market index…stands at $15.879 trillion on 15 February 2013 (Chart 1). It measures the market cap of the U.S. companies. (Don't confuse this chart with the Dow Jones chart.)
The U.S. GDP
Total Market Cap to Gross National Product (TMC:GNP) Ratio If you then divide Chart 1 by Chart 2, you get Chart 3. If the chart goes above 100%, then the stock market is overvalued.
Valuation Table
Conclusion If this correlation is true between the Total Stock Market Index and GDP, then you have to take in mind that GDP is very important to watch. If the GDP drops, then the stock market will most likely drop. If the GDP rises, then the stock market will most likely rise. The U.S. GDP will not go up, due to the zero hour debt problem [see here] so the stock market, theoretically, cannot rise. The only way GDP will go up again is when debt is significantly reduced and we're not at that point yet.
*http://katchum.blogspot.ca/2013/02/correlation-total-stock-market-index-vs.html (Written by Albert Sung; Subscribe to Katchum's macro-economic blog; Sung is also an accomplish pianist and composer as well as financial analyst. Listen to an assortment (24) of his classical compostions here.)
Related Articles: 1. Get Out of the U.S. Dollar and Buy Physical Gold Before It's Too Late – Here's Why Evidence suggests that the "Zero Hour Debt" line has been reached. Get out of the U.S. dollar [U.S. treasuries] and buy physical gold [or equities] before it's too late. It is the only way to protect yourself against a massive U.S. dollar devaluation to come in the next few months. [Let me explain why that is the case.] Words: 719; Charts: 5 | ||||||||
| GoldMoney article: The final countdown Posted: 17 Feb 2013 10:30 AM PST My latest article for GoldMoney is posted here. The final countdown 2013-FEB-17
 Reduced to its bare bones, the choice has been either to accept that unviable businesses and over-extended banks must go bust, or to ignore the problem and hope it goes away. We are familiar with this dilemma as investors: a business that refuses to adapt to new realities will eventually fail. Before it does, its investors have the chance either to sell their shares and perhaps reinvest their money more profitably, or to refuse to accept an early loss on their investment. Most of us, being human, take the latter course and usually regret it. The lesson, if we care to learn it, is that the product of time and money is more valuable than the desire to avoid a book loss. In economic terms, it is better for resources to be deployed efficiently than to tie them up in inefficient or unwanted activity. This is a decision for markets, not governments, which brings us back to the necessity for economic re-adjustment. Governments have simply not faced up to the reality that we are in a post-credit-bubble mess: they still hope the problem will be resolved by time. At this point we must dismiss objections that you cannot compare national accounts with those of a business. Such platitudes display wishful thinking more than a grasp of reality. However, wishful thinkers have a minor point in that governments have the wherewithal to put off the inevitable for longer than failing businesses; but the result is the zombie-like economy we face today. Governments are refusing to let markets clear: prices have not been permitted to fall to a clearing level. They put it off because the American economist Irving Fisher came up with a plausible theory about financial deflation in the 1930s, and they don’t want to face the bankruptcies of the over-indebted, the businesses that rely on the state for their survival, and the banks that have foolishly lent them too much money. Reality is now catching up with western governments. Their underlying financial position is rapidly deteriorating, with welfare costs spiralling out of control and governments already heavily in debt. They cannot realistically underwrite the global banking system, which is insolvent and considerably larger than the governments themselves. The economic recovery which is the governments’ get-out-of-jail card will not occur without that economic readjustment. We are long past the point of no return: that was probably when the Federal Reserve Board under Greenspan decided to rescue the stock market by cutting interest rates to 1% in 2003/04. It has been crisis management by the state ever since. We have progressed to the point where governments have chosen to protect themselves, in preference to looking after the true interests of their electorates. Governments are now finally reduced to screwing their electorates for their own survival, which is their last refuge from reality. Alasdair Macleod Head of research, GoldMoney Alasdair.Macleod@GoldMoney.com Twitter @MacleodFinance | ||||||||
| What Will Happen to Gold and Silver Stocks if the Stock Market Tanks? Posted: 17 Feb 2013 09:57 AM PST If this is the best that the Precious Metals sector can do when the broad market is rising, as it has been, then what is likely to happen when the broad market drops? This is the question that is, or should be, exercising the minds of investors or would be investors in the sector right now. Today we are going to address this issue head on. Before we look at the prospects for the Precious Metals sector itself, we are going to examine the charts for the broad market S&P500 index in an effort to determine its course in the months ahead. | ||||||||
| Investing in the World’s Most Unstoppable Trend Posted: 17 Feb 2013 09:45 AM PST Matthew Carr writes: There is an industry that’s outperformed nearly any you could imagine. Gold… Left in the dust. Oil… Not even close. Natural gas… Nope. Silver… Yup, beat that too. | ||||||||
| QE3 – Pay Attention If You Are in the Real Estate Market Posted: 17 Feb 2013 09:30 AM PST With QE3, we are essentially being bought out with our own money…and unemployment is being used to facilitate this process in a very clever manner. Monetary inflation is currently being offset by labor deflation. The way you avoid collapse is by printing money and stealing assets. The way you avoid inflation is with labor deflation. | ||||||||
| Posted: 17 Feb 2013 09:26 AM PST DR. GREENSPAN'S LEGACY Alan Greenspan is very far from being ashamed, lying low and offering No Comment - he is a great man, he thinks, and some leading mainstream media editorialists also think. Commenting his track record from the standpoint of money in circulation, the gold price, and gold mining company stock, with a look at previous outbreaks of the situation we have today, Mark J. Lundeen said: | ||||||||
| Moscow G20 meeting tackles global financial issues – YouTube Posted: 17 Feb 2013 09:22 AM PST Check our website daily at... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit http://www.figanews.com for full Content ]]  | ||||||||
| Gold 1550 to 1570 For a Range Trade, If It Gets There Posted: 17 Feb 2013 09:03 AM PST This looks like a long consolidation, with a range trade of 1550 to 1800. If we do get down as low as 1570 one might be inclined to step in and buy, adding to longer term holdings and for a trade, with an eye to that 1550 as a low and an upside target north of 1700. | ||||||||
| Money & Markets – Week of 02.17.2013 Posted: 17 Feb 2013 09:00 AM PST
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| Obama's Next Big Housing Market Giveaway to the Bankster Mafia Posted: 17 Feb 2013 08:59 AM PST For those who missed President Obama’s latest giveaway to the Bank Mafia, we’ll repeat what he said here. This is an excerpt from Tuesday’s State of the Union Speech: “Part of our rebuilding effort must also involve our housing sector. Today, our housing market is finally healing from the collapse of 2007. Home prices are rising at the fastest pace in six years, home purchases are up nearly 50 percent, and construction is expanding again. | ||||||||
| Copper - Poised For Breakout While Gold And Silver Falter - Timing Is Now Posted: 17 Feb 2013 08:43 AM PST One concept to keep in mind when making a trade selection is that of relative strength. Given the choice of two or more trade candidates to buy, always go with the strongest performer. When selling, always sell the weakest one. Read More...  | ||||||||
| Ted Butler: Bullish on Gold But JP Morgan Excessively Short in Silver Posted: 17 Feb 2013 07:45 AM PST The recent gold and silver price takedown and the related negativity in the mainstream press were a reason for thorough investigation. The article "Noise vs Facts" on Gold Silver Worlds was intended to focus on the real facts. Investors should not be mislead by interpretations. More in-depth analysis is required to truly understand what is going on primarily in the futures market. With his extensive background and knowledge we trust on Ted Butler's COT analysis (which is at the core of the short term price setting). He wrote the following paragraphs to his paid subscribers on Saturday February 16th. His insights reveal a different picture than the one on the surface – for sure the one that was created by the mainstream media – so we are more than happy to share it with our readers.
Ted butler pointed to the fact that the same institutions that cause large volume selling are buyers on those big down days. Mind that trading game. We encourage readers to subscribe to Ted Butler's excellent service on Butler Research for detailed analysis on the gold and silver price decline and the prospects of the metals (short, mid and long term). | ||||||||
| Copper Poised For Breakout While Gold And Silver Falter Posted: 17 Feb 2013 03:06 AM PST One concept to keep in mind when making a trade selection is that of relative strength. Given the choice of two or more trade candidates to buy, always go with the strongest performer. When selling, always sell the weakest one. This is a simple factor that often gets overlooked. Go with proven strength. Go with anything that is proven or confirmed. The odds are then in your favor. | ||||||||
| Gold Cycle Analysis On February 15th Gold Price Drop Posted: 17 Feb 2013 02:47 AM PST Well if there was any doubt left that [dollar] gold has decoupled from the Equity markets and risk in general, we got that confirmation on Friday. As the Equity markets move closer to a 4 Year Cycle Top, this is a positive development for the longer term gold outlook. Obviously that doesn't help us any in the short term as a "seemingly" improving economy is considered a negative for gold. On the Daily Cycle, the Cycle failure I discussed during the week did end up proving to be a negative development. Friday's drop was discouraging because it was more than just a stop-run of positions clustered around $1,626. Friday was a sustained and consistent sell-off on high volume which did not end in a bullish buying reversal. It also took gold outside of a well-developed trading range where there is little support. For these reasons I fear that the selling is likely not over. Looking at the Daily chart above, obviously it's oversold in the short term and should bounce out of a Bollinger Band crash. But my concern is that the Cycle is only on Day 15, so it conceivably has another 5-8 days before a Cycle Low. This is an excerpt from this weekends's premium update published on Saturday (2.16) focusing on gold from the "The Financial Tap". They are dedicated to helping people grow into successful investors by providing cycle research on multiple markets delivered twice weekly, as well as real time trade alerts to profit from market inefficiencies. They offer a FREE 15-day trial where you'll receive complete access to the entire site. Coupon code (ZEN) saves you 15%. |
So writes Goldrunner* (www.GoldrunnerFractalAnalysis.com) in edited excerpts from his most recent newsletter to subscribers (excluding his illustrative charts which are only available to subscribers) posted here with permission. Go 
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