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Friday, January 25, 2013

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Mining juniors in crisis – gold explorers particularly badly hit

Posted: 25 Jan 2013 06:04 PM PST

The junior gold mining and exploration sector is currently at a very low ebb – but the better juniors will survive regardless and now provide tremendous opportunities for the savvy investor.

Sinclair rounds on gold manipulating bastards, bullies and devils

Posted: 25 Jan 2013 06:03 PM PST

In a posting on his jsmineset website, Jim Sinclair warns his readers not to be bullied and coerced into selling gold and gold stocks and sees an imminent major turnaround in the gold price.

Ghana to start domestic gold refining after century of mining

Posted: 25 Jan 2013 02:57 PM PST

The project comes as Ghana seeks to get more out of its natural resources by increasing domestic processing of minerals and commodities, most of which are exported unrefined.

Why a stronger US economy would be inconvenient for gold

Posted: 25 Jan 2013 12:26 PM PST

UBS's latest daily precious metals note offers some interesting food for thought in terms of the outlook for gold prices over the short term.

An awesome visualization every gold bug should see

Posted: 25 Jan 2013 11:53 AM PST

From Demonocracy:
 
There's surprisingly little gold in the world and this infographic shows all the gold ever mined.
 
In this gold infographic, everything is calculated with the gold price at $2,000/oz. When gold reaches $3,110/oz, 1 oz of gold & a $100 bill will have equal value in weight, and it won't matter if you have 1 oz of $100 bills or 1 oz of gold...
 
 
More on gold:
 
 
 

These gold stocks have a huge advantage over all others

Posted: 25 Jan 2013 11:53 AM PST

From The Gold Report:
 
After months of turmoil that have lasted longer than investors could have imagined, the mining world has been divided into haves and have-nots. There are gold companies that managed their balance sheets wisely and there are those that burned through cash and are left begging for financing. It's a great time for those flush companies that don't need handouts to take advantage of the resulting valuation differential, says Paolo Lostritto, the director of research and mining and metals analyst at National Bank Financial. In this interview with The Gold Report, Lostritto talks about a subtle shift he has seen in the market that may signal a bull run similar to that of the late 1970s and early 1980s.
 
The Gold Report: National Bank Financial began taking a defensive approach to gold equities in April by focusing on companies with strong balance sheets, which could fund their own growth and not have to go to the equity markets to survive. Does Alamos Gold Inc.'s $780 million takeover offer for Aurizon Mines Ltd. validate that defensive thesis?
 
Paolo Lostritto: We were right to have a defensive approach, but we probably weren't defensive enough. Multiples contracted much more aggressively than even we expected. There was a raft of...
 
 
More on gold stocks:
 
 
 

Classic post explains the five steps to becoming a master trader

Posted: 25 Jan 2013 11:53 AM PST

From The Kirk Report:
 
Recently one of my newest additions to my mentorship group forwarded me the following article about the "5 Steps To Becoming A Trader."
 
I had seen this many, many years ago, and from time to time I have seen it recycled in social media, especially by experienced traders who can really identify with it.
 
With both time and perspective – and helping others achieve better performance in the markets – I thought it was about time for me to share it again...
 
 
More on trading:
 
 
 

Former Gov. Jesse Ventura has an unexpected take on the Sandy Hook tragedy

Posted: 25 Jan 2013 11:53 AM PST

From LewRockwell.com:
 
I don’t see enough evidence to think Sandy Hook was a false flag operation. This is more of a tragic event turned into political opportunity than it is a staged event.
  
•   Was there investigative bungling and the sensationalist media reporting unverified stories? Yes.
•   Was there confusion and were facts lost and gained in that confusion? Yes.
•   Are there people, even witnesses, looking for their 30 seconds in the spotlight? Yes.
•   Are there individuals and institutions using and shaping this event for their own political agendas? Yes, and we must keep a very watchful eye on those institutions to keep them from twisting the facts of this event.
 
Sadly, everything I mentioned above can, when taken out of context, make one think manipulation is afoot.
 
Most chaotic events can come across that way. In examining the event, I don't see government hands at work mainly because they would have covered their tracks better. We can't expect them to pull off elaborately planned hoaxes while at the same time leaving behind so many easy "smoking guns" for us to find.
 
It took years for...
 
 
More Cruxallaneous:
 
 
 

Silver is undervalued next to gold, has a finite and rapidly decreasing supply and it’s more accessible in greater quantities than gold

Posted: 25 Jan 2013 09:45 AM PST

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) — Silver's drawing more and more attention as an investment these days, especially from China. That appetite has made silver bulls giddy and lifted prices closer to a record. "Investment demand, not industrial demand, is what drives … Continue reading

This Is All You Need To Know

Posted: 25 Jan 2013 09:30 AM PST

READ THE FULL NEWSLETTER

I have out of town guests staying with us this weekend.  My comments will have to take a back seat to our personal obligations – but, the following release from Jim Sinclair is really all you need to know.  I suggest you take to heart what he has to say.  I do.

Defend Yourself By Not Giving In – jsmineset.com

January 24, 2013, at 7:34 pm
by Jim Sinclair

My Dear Friends,

Please do not fall for this classic manipulation. Please do not make the gold banks happy by giving away your physical. Please do not throw away gold shares because the hedge fund have worked black PR so well that they even have convinced some well known community physical gold merchants of their bear position of shares.

How many times have you seen this not to recognize what it is? Well, this is the big one and last play to denude you of your position. Remember, for every seller there is a buyer. Has not every reaction in gold since $248 attempted to do just that? This big one is no different.

Continue reading on jsmineset.com

Similar Posts:

Gold Backed Bonds - An Alternative To European Austerity

Posted: 25 Jan 2013 09:18 AM PST

gold.ie

A 5.07% Dividend, Good Growth Make Gold Resource Corp. A Great Long-Term Buy

Posted: 25 Jan 2013 09:02 AM PST

By David White:

For some stocks everything goes right, and stock prices rise in a straight line. For others everything seems to go wrong for a short period of time, and investors lose faith in the stock. In some cases this loss of faith is justified. In other cases the loss of faith is an artifact of the media storms surrounding the bad news. The latter seems to be the case for Gold Resource Corp. (GORO). This means that an astute investor can pick up a great company at a greatly reduced price. This is what you should do with Gold Resource Corp.

What problems has Gold Resource Corp. had? It has strongly implied (if not stated) that its main ore concentrate buyer was altering its delivered ore for many months (effectively stealing). The concentrate sampling at the buyer did not match the concentrate sampling at the mine for many quarters


Complete Story »

Gold Stocks Are A Minefield, Pun Intended

Posted: 25 Jan 2013 09:00 AM PST

By Alberto Savrieno:

Two pieces of news came out in recent weeks that indicate the global currency may have escalated to a new level. One is that Japan has become openly determined to devalue the yen intensely in an attempt to artificially stimulate its exports. Aside from the fact that this hasn't worked in a sustained way for decades, it has lowered the Japanese standard of living for just as long. Here's an excerpt from "The Case for Gold," Congress' 1982 Gold Commission minority report, coauthored by Ron Paul and Lewis Lehrman:

The only effect of internal inflation now is a drop in the currency exchange rate, a currency falling in value. But in each country there are special interests who desire just that. These include domestic businessmen who can't compete with better-made or lower-cost products of other lands. If these inefficient firms' goods are priced in a currency becoming cheaper,


Complete Story »

Surviving Gold Opex

Posted: 25 Jan 2013 08:50 AM PST

As I tried to warn two days ago, gold has been summarily beaten by The Forces of Darkness as we approach Feb13 option expiration on Monday. Hang in there. It's almost over.

read more

Gold looking "sloppy" short term, but pullback "attractive"

Posted: 25 Jan 2013 08:47 AM PST

Barclays' technical analysts think a "pullback" to $1,640 is now likely, following Thursday's finish in US gold futures beneath $1,675.

Jim Sinclair: This is the Big One!

Posted: 25 Jan 2013 08:45 AM PST

Legendary gold trader Jim Sinclair has sent another email alert to subscribers today, warning that the current reaction in gold is the big one, and the last play by the bullion banks to denude gold and silver investors of their positions.    Sinclair states that fundamentally, we are approaching the period where gold and silver will [...]

Are gold-backed bonds an alternative to European austerity?

Posted: 25 Jan 2013 08:01 AM PST

The World Gold Council has been exploring ways that Eurozone member states could use their gold reserves to help bring down the cost of borrowing.

GEICO Canceling Insurance Because Customers Work in Firearms Industry

Posted: 25 Jan 2013 07:30 AM PST

An SD reader has sent us his notification of cancellation of auto insurance from GEICO effective 1/22/13 due to the fact that "the vehicle does not meet our underwriting guidelines because it is used in conjunction with a company that deals in the weapons industry". First Bank of America began confiscating the funds of firearms [...]

N. Dakota Bakken Oil Boom Will End in a Bust, Just like '49 Gold Rush

Posted: 25 Jan 2013 07:30 AM PST

By SD Contributor SRSrocco: What is taking place in North Dakota is the same thing that took place during the 1848-50′s California Gold Rush.  And that is a Big Migration of people with very little in the form of housing and services. ALL BOOMS behave the same way.  After the BOOM, comes the BUST.  The [...]

Is gold seeing a pause in safe-haven buying?

Posted: 25 Jan 2013 06:58 AM PST

The gold futures shot up to a recent high of $1,697.80 on Jan. 17 during New York hours, but are now trading 1.64% below that level. Several reasons are offered for the weakness.

Gold Bank Run Accelerating…Now the Swiss Want Their Gold Back- All 1040 Tons of It!

Posted: 25 Jan 2013 06:42 AM PST

With last week's announcement by the Bundesbank of the repatriation of 674 tons of German gold from Paris and NY over the next 7 years, we predicted that an avalanche of gold repatriation requests would soon be made to the … Continue reading

Gold Backed Bonds – An Alternative To European Austerity?

Posted: 25 Jan 2013 06:21 AM PST

The World Gold Council and leading academics and international think tanks believe that using a portion of a nation's gold reserves to back sovereign debt would lower sovereign debt yields and give some of the Eurozone's most distressed countries time to work on economic reform and recovery. According to research done by the World Gold [...]

Small Stacker Day!! 10oz NTR Bars 99 Cents Over Spot Any Qty While Supplies Last!!

Posted: 25 Jan 2013 05:52 AM PST

  Doc's Deal Of The Day   10oz NTR Bars     99 Cents Over Spot While Supplies Last!!   Click Here Or Call 614-300-1094 To Order!! ANY SILVER PURCHASE OF 100 OUNCES OR MORE WILL EARN YOU 100 SD OUNCES (POINTS) TO REDEEM TOWARDS ITEMS FROM THE SD STORE!! JUST MENTION YOUR USERNAME AT [...]

David Morgan – Why can't Germany get its gold back?

Posted: 25 Jan 2013 04:06 AM PST

Russian Central Bank to Keep Buying Gold, Moving Away From Risky Paper Assets

Posted: 25 Jan 2013 02:31 AM PST

¤ Yesterday in Gold and Silver

The gold price was under selling pressure right from the Far East open on their Thursday...and that continued for the rest of the day...and got even more downside help during the Comex trading session.

Not surprisingly, the low of the day [$1,663.90 spot] came at the London p.m. gold fix at 9:00 a.m. local time in New York.

Gold closed at $1,667.40 spot...down $17.40 on the day.  Roll-over volume was heavy, but net volume was only around 128,000 contracts.

I was pretty much the same story in silver...although the silver price rallied a bit during the Comex trading session.  That lasted until 11:15 a.m. Eastern time...and then down went the price.

The silver price closed virtually on its low of the day which was $31.62 spot...down 61 cents from Wednesday.  Volume was pretty heavy...around 55,000 contracts.

The dollar index chopped around the 80.00 mark all day long, closing at 79.99...virtually unchanged from Wednesday.  And it nearly goes without saying the currency movements played no roll in the precious metal price action yesterday.  It was all JPMorgan et al.

Like Wednesday, the gold stocks opened down...and then headed for the nether reaches of the earth once again.  The HUI closed virtually on its low tick...down 3.13%.

Gold has been hit for $25 during the last two trading days and, in response, the HUI has declined by a bit over 6 percent.  John Embry has always maintained that the share prices are being managed as well as the gold price itself...and I would agree with that statement after watching the share price movements over the last two days.

The silver stocks got it in the neck as well...and Nick Laird's Intraday Silver Sentiment Index closed down 3.20%.

(Click on image to enlarge)

The CME's Daily Delivery Report showed that only one lonely silver contract was posted for delivery on Monday.  I'm not really surprised.  The January delivery month, such as it was, is winding down...and will be done by the end of trading next Wednesday.  Most deliveries into the January contract have already been made...but I suppose there still could be surprises in the next few days, but I doubt it.

There was movement in both GLD and SLV yesterday.  First, there was another withdrawal by an authorized participant from GLD.  This time it was 77,451 troy ounces.  And over at SLV a knee-wobbling 6,189,901 troy ounces of silver were also withdrawn and shipped off to parts unknown.

For the second day in a row, there was no sales report from the U.S. Mint.

Over at the Comex-approved depositories on Wednesday, they reported receiving 1,344,577 troy ounces of silver...and shipped 441,608 troy ounces out the door. Lots of silver in motion once again this week.  The link to Wednesday's activity is here.

I heard from the Silver ETF Bar Guru, Joshua Gibbons, yesterday evening...and here is what he had to say.

Hi Ed,

"I haven't finished my weekly SLV analysis...I'll take care of that sometime Friday...but I did a quick check and came up with something interesting."

"We know that JPM added a vault in New York last week, in addition to the four they have in London.  However, early this week they moved the 8.9 Moz of silver from the Johnson Matthey London vault, to the Brinks London vault, presumably ending the contract with Johnson Matthey.  The JM vault only started holding silver for SLV in early 2012."

"So now SLV is using four vaults; two JPM vaults (one in New York, one in London), and two Brinks vaults (both in London).  SLV had previously also used vaults with ViaMat and HSBC, but no longer does."

"I also asked iShares if they could comment as to whether or not the large SLV deposit last week was used to close out the short position. Not surprisingly, I got a "No comment" reply." - Joshua

The photo below is one I 'borrowed' from the spaceweather.com Internet site a few weeks back.  It's an Airbus of some kind taking off from the Rome airport and silhouetted against a sunspot-covered solar disk.

I have the usual number of stories for a weekday...and I hope you have the time to spend on the ones that interest you the most.

The mining companies seem to have no real interest in helping their shareholders
Now Royal Canadian Mint rationing silver coin sales. Jim Sinclair: Defend Yourself By Not Giving In. BlackRock's Evy Hambro: Gold Price to Rise in 2013. SLV dishoards 6.2 million ounces. Silver Bullet Bullion.

¤ Critical Reads

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Fed Balance Sheet Hits Record $3 Trillion

The size of the U.S. Federal Reserve's balance sheet reached a record, Fed data released on Thursday showed, due to the central bank's purchases of Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities that are part of its unconventional policy aimed at supporting economic growth.

The Fed's liabilities — which comprises mainly its lending to the financial system and most closely watched by traders — stood at $2.994 trillion on Jan. 23, up from $2.946 trillion on Jan. 16.

The central bank's balance sheet overall balance sheet which include gold holdings and dollar bills and coins in circulation totaled $3.055 trillion in the latest week, up from $.007 trillion in the prior week.

This short CNBC story showed up on their website late Thursday afternoon Eastern Time...and I thank West Virginia reader Elliot Simon for today's first story.  The link is here.

Yale's Shiller: Housing Market May Have Further to Drop

A U.S. housing-market revival may prove illusory and the threat of further weakness remains, said Robert Shiller, a professor at Yale University and co-creator of the S&P/Case-Shiller index of property values.

"The housing market has been declining for something like six years now, it could go on, that's my worry," Shiller told Tom Keene in a Bloomberg Television interview Thursday in Davos, Switzerland. "The short-term indicators are up now, it definitely looks better, but we saw that in 2009."

"It's a good housing market in the sense that mortgage rates are very low and prices have come down to normal levels, so yes, it's a good time to buy if nothing bad happens," Shiller said.

"But it's also a very bad housing market in that most of the mortgages are being supported by the government, and we have the Fed and this buying program. It's a very abnormal market. There's a lot of uncertainty going forward."

As I said in January of 2007...check with me in 2013 and we'll talk about the bottom of the U.S. real estate market then.  Well, here we are...and we still don't know.  If you're a property owner in the U.S...this is a must read.  This is Elliot Simon's second offering in a row...and the link is here.

Kansas Fed Joins NY, Philly And Richmond Fed In Contracting; Employment Index Drops To 2009 Levels

We are now four-for-four (five-for-five if we include the drastic downward revisions in the Chicago PMI) for regional Fed business outlooks taking a serious (and consistent) turn for the worse. Kansas Fed manufacturing just missed expectations turning negative once again.

Amid the sub-indices (which were broadly weak) was a plunge in employment as it fell to August 2009 levels. This weakness in Kansas follows Richmond's quadruple dip, Empire State's weakness, and Philly's major miss and in aggregate suggests a very weak ISM to come.

Of course, all of this flies in the face of today's US PMI which beat expectations and pushed to recent highs.

The two embedded charts in this very short Zero Hedge story from yesterday are worth looking at. It's three in a row from Elliot Simon...and the link is here.

Number Of Nation's Sheriffs Refusing To Enforce Unconstitutional Gun Laws Snowballs

From Florida to California, a growing number of the nation's sheriffs are standing up to gun control measures proposed by both the administration and Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D-Calif.).

Many law enforcement officials have written letters to President Barack Obama and Vice President Joe Biden voicing their concerns over what they believe is an effort to infringe upon the Second Amendment.

In New Mexico, 30 of the state's 33 county sheriffs have reminded state lawmakers that they are under oath to support the U.S. Constitution, and that includes the Second Amendment.

CNSNews.com previously reported that 28 of the 29 sheriff's in Utah sent a letter to President Obama stating that they will not enforce any new gun laws they believe to be unconstitutional.

It's reassuring to know that a large portion of the police force...and their military counterparts...have taken their Oath of Allegiance seriously.  I'm sure that someday they will be put to the test...and I expect them to come through with flying colours.  This story was posted on the cnsnews.com Internet site...and is the fourth story in a row from Elliot.  The link is here.

David Cameron's referendum may never be necessary

David Cameron's pledge for an 'in-or-out' referendum on Europe will be overtaken by internal events long before we reach 2017. The vote may never be necessary. He is entirely right to play for time.

The eurozone's North-South misalignment has not been resolved. The Club Med bloc is still sliding into deeper depression. The financial crisis — never more than a symptom — has graduated into a more intractable economic, social, and therefore political crisis.

The ECB's Mario Draghi has taken the risk of a sovereign default in Spain and Italy off the table, but he has not restored these countries to economic viability within a D-Mark currency bloc, and nor can he.

This Ambrose Evans-Pritchard blog was posted on the telegraph.co.uk Internet site very late Wednesday evening GMT...and I thank Roy Stephens for sending it.  It's definitely worth reading...and the link is here.

Spain: Unemployment For Under 25s Over 55%

The unemployment figure for young people was up from 52.34% in the previous quarter.

Overall, Spain's unemployment rate has risen to its highest level since measurements began in the 1970s, as a prolonged recession and deep spending cuts have left almost six million people out of work at the end of last year.

The nationwide jobless total rose 1% to 26.02% in the fourth quarter of 2012, or 5.97 million people, according to the National Statistics Institute.

That is up from 25% in the previous quarter, and more than double the European Union average.

This Sky News story was filed during the London lunch hour yesterday...and it's worth reading.  I thank Scott Pluschau for digging it up for us...and the link is here.

The Real Deal on Japan's New QE Bazooka and Why the Yen Trade Broke Down

Japan, the nation that pretty much invented quantitative easing, is now following in Ben Bernanke's footsteps, launching an open-ended asset purchase plan and a 2% inflation target to fight the steady drop in prices that have plagued the world's third largest economy for twenty years.  The Bank of Japan (BoJ) is joining others in what could be dubbed a new era for central banks, as ailing economies and massive debt loads have eroded the barrier of independence and essentially pushed monetary policymakers into trying to spark growth via stimulus, as the debate on the effectiveness of those policies ranges on.

The market's verdict on whether the policy will work has been mixed.  While equities mounted an impressive rally and the yen fell dramatically in anticipation to the decision, momentum fizzled after the announcement, as investors were disappointed with the magnitude of the BoJ's latest round of QE, expecting policymakers to do more.

This short article was posted on the Forbes website early Wednesday afternoon...and is certainly worth skimming.  Not that I want to read too much into it, but it looks like "QE to Infinity" Japanese style, was anything but...and was "all hat and no cattle" as they say in the great state of Texas.  I borrowed this story out of yesterday's edition of the King Report...and the link is here.

CFTC Commissioner Jill Sommers Announces her Resignation

"As I prepare to leave the Commodity Futures Trading Commission I would like to acknowledge the hard work and dedication of my fellow Commissioners and the many talented staff with whom I have had the pleasure of working for the past five years. While many challenges remain in finalizing the implementation of the Dodd-Frank Act, I have every confidence that the American public will be well-served by their continuing efforts."

One wonders if her replacement will be just as bought and paid for like she was?  This one-paragraph item was posted on the cftc.gov Internet site yesterday...and the first reader through the door with this story was Brad Robertson.  The link to the hard copy is here.

Now Royal Canadian Mint rationing silver coin sales

Posted: 25 Jan 2013 02:31 AM PST

Is there a shortage of physical silver available, or have the official North American mints which sell silver coins just heavily under-estimated demand – or, as GATA suggests, is this another ploy to make sure demand for bullion is kept under control as a way of helping prevent a physical shortage developing on the commodity markets by putting a choke on demand and thus suppressing the metal price?

While we tend to discount the latter as GATA just finding another factor to support its gold, and now silver, price suppression position, either (or both) the former reasons would seem to fit the current halt or suppression of silver coin sales by two of the world's largest official mints.

read more

Silver Bullet Bullion

Posted: 25 Jan 2013 02:31 AM PST

Silver Bullet Bullion is the most powerful ammunition against deficit spending, fiat currency, sovereign debt, quantitative easing, failed Federal Reserve policy, and rampant inflation ever minted by man!

The stuff is really shaped like ammunition...and it's a new product from the Northwest Territorial Mint.  A very ingenious concept.  This item is also courtesy of Scott Pluschau...and is worth a quick look.  The link is here.

Links 1/25/13

Posted: 25 Jan 2013 12:32 AM PST

Aiee! Behind on my Bank of America whistleblower series, but not for want of working on it. Draft of the next post was too dense, and I need to pretty much restart from scratch :-(

Water Buffalo, Extinct in Europe for 10,000 Years, Spotted Outside of Berlin Take Part (Valissa)

15,000 crocodiles escape from South African farm Telegraph (Richard Smith)

The Price of Water 2012: 18 Percent Rise Since 2010, 7 Percent Over Last Year in 30 Major U.S. Cities Circle of Blue (RC)

Boeing battery fire 'unprecedented' Financial Times

US Company Uses Fracking Technique to Extract Uranium OilPrice. What could go wrong?

North Korea threatens to target US Guardian. The ritualized shakedown…

Australian income inequality worsens MacroBusiness

Delight in Aussie town over 'trillion-dollar' oil find Independent

United Kingdom Lifts Travel Ban On American Journalist Richard Smith

Internet connection crucial to everyday life, German federal court rules Computerworld UK (Slashdot)

Denial, panic and doubt in Davos Guardian. This is the cheeriest headline I have read in a while. The 0.1% may be recognizing how badly they've screwed up.

Saudi Arabia v. Qatar on Syria Counterpunch (Carol B)

Joe Biden Recommends Buying A Shotgun When An Earthquake Strikes Clusterstock

Chicago Shooting Charges: 94 Percent Of Gunmen Who Shot And Injured Victims Got Off Easy In 2012 Huffington Post (Carol B)

Investigating the Link Between Gun Possession and Gun Assault National Institutes of Health (furzy mouse). From 2009, but remember the NRA has been hell bent for leather to keep studies from being funded. From the summary: ""On average, guns did not protect those who possessed them from being shot in an assault…"

Would-be robber cries before getting cash – leaves with pizza US News (Valissa)

From Central Bank Independence to Democratic Public Finance Dan Kervick, New Economic Perspectives

The Debt Ceiling and Playing With Fire Simon Johnson, New York Times

Exclusive: Wal-Mart exploring private health insurance exchange for small biz Orlando Business Journal (furzy mouse). I trust Walmart about as far as I can throw them.

San Bernadino Scraps Eminent Domain Plan American Banker

The New York Times would rather cover a Breuer chair than cover Lanny Breuer Corrente

Brokers Getting Secret Payments Through Real Estate Software CorporateCrimeReporter (KL)

Antidote du jour (furzy mouse):

Gold Carpet Treatment Promised for Miners in the Dominican Republic: Alexander Medina

Posted: 25 Jan 2013 12:00 AM PST

The Gold Report caught up with Alexander Medina, the newly appointed director of mining for the Dominican Republic. With gold discoveries popping up all over Hispaniola—the country shares the...

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Richard Koo Debunks the “Deleveraging is Almost Done, American Consumer Getting Ready for Good Times” Meme

Posted: 24 Jan 2013 11:55 PM PST

Richard Koo of Nomura published an important piece earlier this week which got some attention in the financial blogosphere (Clusterstock, FT Alphaville). It takes issue with a critical part of the economist optimists' case, namely, that consumer deleveraging is about done and therefore the economy is likely to perform much better in the next few years.

I have doubts even with the thesis as stated, given that the assumption is that having consumers releverage would be a good thing. We have stagnant wages and short job tenures and concerns that demographics will no longer drive growth in the US, combined with the fact that the BIS has found that household debt to GDP ratio of over 85% are associated with a negative impact on economic growth, and we are still above that level:

And that's before you get into the issue of the composition of debt: a lot of the deleveraging has been involuntary (foreclosures and bankruptcies) and has been partially offset by rising levels of student, which is more pernicious than credit card or mortgage debt, since it can't be discharged in bankruptcy, and is accumulated at the beginning of an adult's income-earning years.

Koo makes a different point: that some of the figures that the bulls have cited as positive are anything but:

Those making this argument [that deleveraging is over] seem to be basing their views on the fact that the Fed's Flow of Funds Accounts show the US household sector as a net investor in 2012 Q3, the first time that has happened since 2007 Q2…the US household sector was characterized by a financial deficit of 2.8% of GDP, and this, I suspect,
led some to argue that the US balance sheet recession was over.

Koo refers to this chart to make his point (click to enlarge):

The white bars are financial assets and the red bars are liabilities. The blue line is the difference between the two. Koo again:

While US households did indeed run a financial deficit in Q3, the deficit was not necessarily driven by positive factors. If people who had been paying down debt to repair their balance sheets had actually resumed borrowing, it would mean that balance sheet problems were behind us. However, the fact that the latest colored bar in Figure 1 is above zero indicates that US households are still paying down debt.

Inasmuch as this act of reducing financial liabilities in spite of zero interest rates runs counter to the principle of maximizing profits, it suggests that US households continue to undertake balance sheet adjustments.

And the implications…

The answer can also be found in Figure 1:the fact that the latest white bar is below zero means households drew down financial assets in the quarter. And that is hardly a good sign. It has happened only three times since 2000, including the present occasion.

The first instance (barely visible in the graph) was in 2000 Q4, when the Internet bubble collapsed. The second was in 2008 Q4, when the failure of Lehman Brothers sparked a global financial crisis. People faced cash flow problems in both periods andprobably were forced to draw down existing savings to make necessary payments.

During the bubble period towards the middle of Figure 1, much attention was paid to the fact that the US household savings rate had turned negative. While the sector did run a financial deficit during this period, the deficit was attributable to the fact that the increase in financial liabilities (ie growth in borrowing) was greater than the increase in financial assets (ie growth in savings). There was no drawdown of financial assets.

Hence we need to pay attention to the fact that the latest figure shows only the third drawdown of financial assets since 2000 and that this drawdown is responsible for the financial deficit in the broader household sector. The reason: if household consumption is being financed by the drawdown of financial assets, it is not likely to be sustainable.

This pattern of drawing down financial assets while reducing financial liabilities has been frequently observed in Greece during the last two years and is definitely not a positive development, in my view.

I know the plural of anecdote is not data, but I'm not hearing a lot of optimism in the cohorts I'm in contact with. Most people are less freaked out than they were in 2009 and 2010 but while you can say that trend-wise, it's an improvement in confidence, that does not translate into confidence in the animal spirits sense. One telling story: a former client who was a partner in a financial firm that was sold at a very handsome price and has a net worth somewhere north of $15 million (how much I have no idea) was visiting New York. He and his wife live part of the year in Chicago and are renovating their apartment. She remarked that she had just been in the D&D Building because the showrooms for the Chicago decorators had become very spare since the downturn. I said I was surprised, prices at art auctions were hitting new highs. She said that the people at the top might be spending, but it was different at the next layer. For instance, when she called the contractor she had used before to ask about his schedule for the spring, he signaled he was wide open. Later he said that his 4th quarter had been "OK" and if the rest of the year had been as weak as his first quarter 2012 had suggested, he wouldn't be in business.

Koo also pointed out that the business sector is still net saving. As we've written before, when the household sector and the business sector are both saving, the government sector needs to run a deficit or the economy contracts (unless you can run a trade surplus, which is not the situation the US is in):

The US corporate sector, which is said to be healthier than the household sector, remains a net saver in spite of zero interest rates—in other words, savings are still increasing.

It is often argued that US companies are healthier financially than US households. However, the white bars in Figure 2 show that businesses were forced to draw down financial assets for five straight quarters from 2008 Q1 through 2009 Q1.

This is the period that started with the challenge of Bear Stearns, triggering extreme dysfunction in the US financial system. As a result many companies found it extremely difficult to obtain funding. This should also be clear from the fact that funds raised by US corporations (ie increase in financial liabilities) declined sharply from 2008 Q1 onwards.

For four quarters starting in 2009 Q1, US businesses paid down debt at a time of zero interest rates—in other words, growth in financial liabilities turned negative. US households and businesses alike were desperately deleveraging in an attempt to repair their balance sheets.

The debt repayment subsequently stopped and companies began borrowing again, but that was more than offset by an
increase in financial assets. The financial surplus condition at US companies has continued to the present in spite of zero interest rates.

In that sense, I think we can say that balance sheet adjustments continue in the corporate sector, although perhaps not to the extent of the household sector….

Even in the aftermath of the Internet bubble collapse, during which the necessary adjustments were far milder, it took 12
quarters—three full years—for corporate sector behavior to return to pre-bubble norms.

Given that the shock of the housing bubble collapse was several times greater, I suspect that at least several more years will be needed before US companies stop increasing savings and resume borrowing money to expand operations.

Even with this, Koo is overstating the degree of the return to normalcy. We noted that corporations were net savers in a November 2005 article:

Companies typically invest in times like these, when profits are high and interest rates low. Yet a recent JP Morgan report notes that, since 2002, American companies have incurred an average net financial surplus of 1.7 percent of GDP, which contrasts with an average deficit of 1.2 percent of GDP for the preceding forty years. While firms in aggregate have occasionally run a surplus, ". . . the recent level of saving by corporates is unprecedented. . . . It is important to stress that the present situation is in some sense unnatural. A more normal situation would be for the global corporate sector—in both the G6 and emerging economies—to be borrowing, and for households in the G6 economies to be saving more, ahead of the deterio- ration in demographics."

Obsession with quarterly profits has produced an unhealthy tendency towards underinvestment even in economic expansions, since capital investments also entail expenses (marketing, hiring staff, etc) before the new project is productive. It's thus hard to see how anyone (except stock brokers) is buying the CBO line that cutting the deficit when unemployment is still high and companies are tightfisted will only produce a two quarter downturn before the confidence fairy emerges and growth resumes. That sort of forecast looks an awful lot like the classic hockey stick in presentations to venture capitalists: invest in us, we'll have a short period when we'll lose money as we are ramping up, but then we'll show juicy growth and profits. VCs know to be plenty skeptical. It's too bad that the media and policy makers aren't.

Royal Canadian Mint Limits Quantity of Silver Maple Leaf Sales

Posted: 24 Jan 2013 10:01 PM PST

Libertads Taking Over North America The US and Canada are supposed to be superpowers on the global level. Of course, the US has had hegemony over much of the planet since World War II, while Canada has enjoyed stability, resources. … Continue reading

Ian Fraser: Something Sinister About the Lack of Prosecutions at Lehman Brothers

Posted: 24 Jan 2013 09:29 PM PST

By Ian Fraser, a financial journalist who blogs at his web site and at qfinance. His Twitter is @ian_fraser.

This is the first interview that Chicago lawyer Anton Valukas has given since the publication of his 2,292 page report into the bankrutpcy of Lehman Brothers on March 11th, 2010. At that time, Valukas found strong evidence of financial and accounting fraud designed to deceive investors at the defunct New York-based investment bank. Valukas is surprised, especially given Lehman Brothers' rampant abuse of Repo 105 to disguise its precarious financial position in the quarters ahead of its September 2008 collapse, that neither the former Lehman Brothers' chief executive Dick Fuld nr any other Lehman Brothers' director has been charged with fraud or related offences.

Matthew Lee, a Lehman Brothers' whistleblower who raised grave concerns about the bank's deceptive approach to accounting to his bosses — controller Martin Kelly, head of capital markets product control Gerard Reilly, chief financial officer Erin Callan, and chief risk officer Christopher O'Meara — is also interviewed in the CBS programme above. The Englishman, senior vice president in charge of the investment bank's consolidated and unconsolidated balance sheet, was stonewalled on repeated occasions by Kelly,Reilly, Callan, and O'Meara. He eventually became so frustrated by their failure to even discuss the issues he sent what he calls "a grenade" in the shape of this powerful May 16th 2008 letter. But yet again Lehman Brothers most senior financial and risk officers closed their ears. They continued to ignore his warnings and fired him within a week.

And surprise, surprise, that incredibly honest and upstanding international firm of accountants, Ernst & Young, the failed bank's auditors, failed to carry out their legal duties (they should have alerted their client's audit committee or the board of directors to Lee's concerns after their meeting with whistleblower — at which he warned them of among other things, the bank's persistent abuse of accounting trick Repo 105 to park toxic assets offshore and manipulate its balance sheet).

Andrew Cuomo, former attorney general of New York State, initiated a process of pursuing Ernst & Young for aiding and abetting a fraud using the Martin Act, one of the most powerful prosecutorial tools in the United States, just before stepping down from that role in December 2010. The case bounced from the New York State to the Supreme court and is now back in the State court. A trial is expected soon [thanks, Cate Long, for the update here].

The whole thing is sinister and astonishing in equal measure. The reason that no director of Lehman Brothers has been brought to book would appear to be that US financial regulator the Securities & Exchange Commission, which had a dedicated team inside Lehmans' headquarters at 745 Seventh Avenue prior to the uber-leveraged bank's collapse, knew all this chicanery was going on, and must therefore have given it the nod at the time. The SEC may therefore be complicit in the alleged crime and no less guilty than Lehman. Shades of the FSA's hopelessly compromised position where failed UK banks like Royal Bank of Scotland and HBOS are concerned?

H/T Cate Long

Cross-posted from ianfraser.org

Gold Bank Run Accelerating…Now the Swiss Want Their Gold Back- All 1040 Tons of It!

Posted: 24 Jan 2013 09:19 PM PST

With last week's announcement by the Bundesbank of the repatriation of 674 tons of German gold from Paris and NY over the next 7 years, we predicted that an avalanche of gold repatriation requests would soon be made to the BOE and the NYFed.  It appears that Switzerland may be next to the game, much [...]

Chris Powell in Vancouver

Posted: 24 Jan 2013 08:46 PM PST

Our good friend Chris Powell of the Gold Anti-trust Action Committee (GATA) was interviewed last weekend at the Cambridge House Vancouver Resource Investment Conference by Bridgitte Anderson. 

Powell contends that if people realized how "overcommitted" actual remaining physical gold is, the price would move much higher.  We deem the interview worthy of sharing.  (Video below.)

 

Powell says that the central banks used to manage the gold price in the open before the London  Gold Pool collapse in the 1960s.  He points out a secret IMF document that says the central banks refused to release information about their gold swaps and loans because doing so would destabilize or impair the western central bank secret currency intervention efforts – because they are using swaps and loans of gold in market rigging.  

 "They (the current administration) are very politically incorrect, because once you start asking these questions, Bridgitte, you discover that the level of intervention by western central banks in the markets is far more extensive than people think.  I said in our conference in Washington four years ago that there really are no markets anymore, there are only central bank interventions," Powell said. 

"There are a lot of fine companies at this conference here," Powell continued, "and I think a lot of them have pretty good prospects – in a free market situation. But when central banks are rigging most markets – they are rigging the currency markets, the bond markets, the gold market particularly – because the gold market is the determiner of all the other markets – we are not trading on fundamentals.  We are trading on the anticipation of central bank action."  

Anderson takes mild offense at Powell's suggestion that main stream media is constrained by government.  See how that exchange develops in the video above. 

Source:  Cambridge House via YouTube

https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=yt8VJHmsG50 

Truth About Money, Prosperity, Freedom: Today's Top 10 News Stories

Posted: 24 Jan 2013 02:56 PM PST

Recommended news stories on January 24th, 2013

How Jamie Dimon and JPMorgan Chase Endanger the Public Safety on Forbes | truth about banking

Gold's Tactical Assault On $1800 on 321gold | gold fundamentals

Withdrawn: $114 Billion From Big U.S. Banks on Business Week | truth about banking

Gold Will Be The Best Business On The Planet on Bull Market Thinking | gold's prospects

Marc Faber: "You Keep Your U.S. Dollars And I'll Keep My Gold" on Gold Core | truth about money

Money printing amounts to theft from our children on Telegraph | truth about central banking

Has The Debt Jubilee Already Started? on Dollarcollapse | debt crisis

Currency war talk not appropriate says IMF chief economist on Reuters | resistance to see the truth

Russia central bank to keep buying gold on Reuters | gold's prospects

Top quotes of the day:

  • The Russian central bank will continue to buy gold as it seeks to diversify its foreign reserves away from paper assets it views as risky.
  • "I think really the talk of currency wars is just inappropriate at this point," Blanchard said.

Commodity Technical Analysis: Gold Has Retraced Entire 1/17 Move

Posted: 24 Jan 2013 02:01 PM PST

All Fear All the Time

Posted: 24 Jan 2013 01:30 PM PST

Read the Wednesday Afternoon Wrap-Up for 1/23/2013 and the Thursday Morning Commentary for 1/24/2013

Through 12 years of gold and silver suppression – principally of "PAPER PM Investments" like futures, ETFs and mining shares; the Cartel's most potent weapon is the very thing that will ultimately destroy them – investor FEAR the PM sector is on the verge of collapse.  No one is aware of this more than me; as I've been fully invested in gold, silver, and – until mid-2011, mining shares – for the past eleven years.

To this day – in fact, more so than EVER – each time I look at my screen, I expect a WATERFALL DECLINE; particularly during KEY ATTACK TIMES, Sunday nights, holidays, and "attack events" like NFP payrolls, Fed meetings, Presidential speeches, COMEX options expirations, and, well – anything that could objectively be considered PM-bullish.

FEAR is what drives people to their most irrational states; and when it comes to one's life's savings – particularly amidst an expanding global depression – NOTHING scares one more than plunging investments.  Worse yet, those holding "PAPER PM Investments" have endured such plunges when they should be surges; and for mining share owners, often when gold and silver themselves are surging.

TPTB know this too well; which is EXACTLY why they don't let up; not for a day, an hour, or a minute.  Conversely, they feel the same urgency to support stocks, bonds, and major currencies as they do to suppress PMs; as if they "lose" any one of them, they know they'll lose them ALL.  So for those idealists out there, I'm sorry to disappoint you.  In other words, DO NOT expect anything to change – not a whit – until the forces of REALITY overcome them; such as, by the way, PHYSICAL demand shortages…

US Mint Sold Out of Silver Eagle Bullion Coins until January 7, 2013

US Mint Out Of Silver Coins – Suspends Sales on January 17th

On "D-DAY" – i.e., November 9th, 2010 – the Cartel clearly stepped up its naked shorting of mining shares, in response to silver's first attempt to cross the VERY KEY ROUND NUMBER of $30/oz since 1980.  At that time, investing in "PAPER PM Investments" became a living nightmare; as if the aftershock of the 2008-09 debacle wasn't bad enough.

Worse yet, after "DOLLAR-PRICED GOLD" achieved a new ALL-TIME HIGH in September 2011, Cartel suppression of ALL aspects of the PM complex reached heights of blatancy and viciousness not yet witnessed; aside, of course, from May 2011's "SUNDAY NIGHT PAPER SILVER MASSACRE."  Last year alone, PM investors endured countless "named storm," blitzkrieg attacks; the worst of which was February's "LEAP DAY VIOLATION."

The incessant PM raids attacks have continued into 2013; and with the GLOBAL economy deteriorating, the Bank of Japan going berserk, and next month's fiscal cliff/debt ceiling debates, the "GOLD WARS" will only get more intense.  In other words, the Cartel will undoubtedly use its "fear card" to the fullest.

Of course, the biggest WEAPON against the "fear card" is PHYSICAL gold and silver; which, no matter how hard – or dirty – the Cartel fights, continues to defeat them; year, after year, after year

"PAPER PM Investments" are their DEATH STAR, but PHYSICAL PMs are their KRYPTONITE.  I am getting more "worry emails" then EVER; and I'll bet anything that 99% of them emanate from people holding the former.  The senders may not tell me so – often, out of embarrassment; but rest assured, it's ETFs like GLD and SLV; and mining shares, senior and junior, that make them so scared – with good reason.  TRUST ME, I lived that HELL for nearly a decade.

Fortunately, I switched to 100% PHYSICAL gold and silver in mid-2011; and since then, while my assets have gradually appreciated – each night, I sleep the "SLEEP OF THE JUST."

Remember, if you stand in the way of the Cartel's DEATH STAR, you may survive, and you may even thrive.  But then again, you may be annihilated.  And until the Cartel is destroyed, they WILL continue to fire the DEATH STAR "at will"…

Death Star is clear to fire

Of course, if you own – not "invest in" – the Cartel's KRYPTONITE, they CANNOT destroy you.  And if you do – TAKE MY WORD – you will no longer experience "ALL FEAR, ALL THE TIME!"

PROTECT YOURSELF, and do it NOW!

Call Miles Franklin at 800-822-8080, and talk to one of our brokers.  Through industry-leading customer service and competitive pricing, we aim to EARN your business.Similar Posts:

Bankster Backer Jill Sommers Resigns From CFTC

Posted: 24 Jan 2013 12:37 PM PST

CFTC Commissioner Jill Sommers, who is famous for voting in favor of TBTF bankers interests nearly 100% of the time has just announced her resignation from the CFTC. In other news, The Vampire Squid and The Morgue are duking it out vying for an alumni to replace Sommers. Full statement below:   1 oz Gold [...]

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