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Thursday, January 24, 2013

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Let’s hedge gold again like we did last whenever

Posted: 24 Jan 2013 01:43 PM PST

The latest Thomson Reuters GFMS report on gold hedging shows a tiny net increase in Q3. Does this represent the beginning of a return to net hedging by new and prospective gold miners.

Gold price competition – only a week left to enter

Posted: 24 Jan 2013 01:42 PM PST

This year's Mineweb gold price competition closes on Jan 31st so if you want the chance to be 2013's Mineweb Gold Guru of the Year get your entries in now.

A shakeout in India's $27bn gold loan market

Posted: 24 Jan 2013 10:41 AM PST

At just 1.2% of the total gold stock in India, gold loans have huge growth potential and the government is developing product and risk mitigation strategies to get a share of the pie.

Silver to keep outperforming Gold in 2013 : Morgan Stanley

Posted: 24 Jan 2013 10:39 AM PST

In a statement, Morgan Stanley however said macroeconomic conditions remain favorable for further price appreciation in the yellow metal.

Now Royal Canadian Mint rationing silver coin sales

Posted: 24 Jan 2013 10:18 AM PST

Silver demand looks to be running at particularly high levels in January as the Royal Canadian Mint follows US example and begins rationing sales of its Silver Maple Leaf coins.

Separating the gold mining haves from the have-nots: Paolo Lostritto

Posted: 24 Jan 2013 10:15 AM PST

There are gold companies that managed their balance sheets wisely and there are those that burned through cash and are left begging for financing. It's a great time for those flush companies that don't need handouts.

These are Ron Paul's 15 favorite gold and silver stocks

Posted: 24 Jan 2013 10:01 AM PST

From Economic Policy Journal:
 
I have posted before that Ron Paul puts his money (in gold stocks) where his mouth is (he is a stronger believer in gold).
 
Michael Vodicka has taken an updated look at Ron's holdings and notes that he has 21% in real estate, 14% in cash, 1% in ETFs that will benefit from a collapse in the stock market, and the rest (64%) in gold and silver stocks.
 
Here is a list put together by Vodicka, of 15 gold and silver stocks owned by Ron...
 
 
More on gold and silver stocks:
 
 
 

Why five top managers are bullish on gold and gold stocks for 2013

Posted: 24 Jan 2013 10:01 AM PST

From The Gold Report:
 
The Gold Report's first-ever survey of fund managers who invest heavily in junior gold mining stocks reveals cautious optimism on the sector's performance in 2013. The historical performance of gold in the year following a U.S. presidential election, the devaluing of the U.S. dollar and current low valuations for gold miners all bode well for an upturn this year, but some doubts remain...
 
Five fund managers participated in the survey: Frank Holmes of U.S. Global Investors, Brian Ostroff of Windermere Capital, Steve Palmer of AlphaNorth Asset Management, Peter Vermeulen of Plethora Precious Metals Fund, and Adrian Day of Adrian Day Asset Management.
 
One reason for optimism is the historical performance of gold and gold equities during and after a U.S. presidential election. Gold and gold mining stocks both fell significantly last year during the contest between President Barack Obama and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney.
 
One fund manager believes that bodes well for a rebound for gold and gold stocks this year because historically the precious metal and gold equities have performed well in the year after an election.
 
Others expressed the opinion that further devaluation of the U.S. dollar, which could result from the Federal Reserve's asset purchases and/or the failure of the president and Congress to reach a deal on spending cuts, will boost the prospects for gold generally and gold stocks in particular.
 
In addition, the fund managers asserted that gold producers are very close to their historic valuation lows again. That, too, may signal the possibility of a rebound.
 
The Gold Report: On a scale of 1 to 10 with 10 being the best, how would you rate junior gold companies as an investment in 2013?
 
Frank Holmes: For producers increasing production, the relative rating is 10. For juniors with high grade (+8 grams per ton) plus a million ounces of resources, a 10 rating if assets are...
 
 
More on precious metals:
 
 
 

A controversial theory explains why gold is no longer rising

Posted: 24 Jan 2013 10:01 AM PST

From Gonzalo Lira:
 
Why isn't gold higher?
 
Two of the three reserve currencies of the world – the dollar and the yen – are on a relentless race to the bottom, and only recently have the Europeans figured out that they'd better start kicking the euro down, before they price themselves out of the global markets.
 
With this general fiat currency devaluation, you would think that gold would be much, much higher than it is now.
 
But gold isn't higher – it's drifting...
 
Gold was on a relentless climb after the 2008 Global Financial Crisis – with good reason: The markets collectively deduced that the central banks of the world would devalue their currencies, in order to get out from under the mountain of private, consumer, and sovereign debt.
 
Individuals might have decided to buy gold for different reasons – a hedge against volatile equities markets, worries about a run on sovereign debt instruments, etc. – but collectively the market participants all acted the same way: They bought gold as a hedge...
 
Thus the steady climb in the price of gold from $750 to $1900 in a little less than three years.
 
So far, so good.
 
But then starting in September of 2011, gold prices zoned out between $1,900 and $1,600. Instead of continuing on to $2,000 an ounce, $3,000, Infinity and Beyond, gold just drifted... 
 
Gold has not outperformed anything since September 2011.
 
The conspiracy-minded claim it's a conspiracy...
 
 
More on gold:
 
 

Twelve smart dividend rules every retirement investor should know

Posted: 24 Jan 2013 10:01 AM PST

From Dennis Miller of Casey Research:
 
Many of you have probably filled out one of the "retirement planner" forms available online. Plenty of tax and accounting programs also have "Lifetime Planner" sections for folks to determine if they can afford to retire.
 
These sorts of programs plug certain assumptions into a formula, such as projected inflation rate, retirement income, anticipated spending levels, and portfolio growth rate. After you add your personal information, it projects how much money you'll be able to produce annually during retirement, and how long it will last.
 
The first time I ran these numbers, the program said I was good until 116 years of age. At the time, I believed that if we followed the plan as outlined, my wife and I would never have any real money worries. We'd be set for the rest of our lives and could proudly leave some to our children to help with their retirement. How naïve of me!
 
Things have sure changed a lot since then.
 
At the time, I'd estimated inflation at 2% and a minimum yield on our portfolio of 6%. In those days, that was conservative. Inflation was lower than 2%, and you could always earn 6% on a top-rated bond or CD.
 
Many retirees and baby boomers are now rethinking the entire retirement process. CDs and top-quality bonds no longer pay enough interest to keep up with inflation.
 
With these options out of the picture, it's no wonder the stocks of big, solid, dividend-paying companies are soaring. Investors hoping to earn a higher return are pouring money into them with the hope of staying ahead of inflation.
 
I'm a firm believer that the days of buying a company stock, putting it in a drawer, and never worrying about it again are over. At the same time, folks contemplating their retirement finances will likely have long-term relationships with certain dividend-paying stocks.
 
While working on our special report, Money Every Month, our lead analyst, Vedran Vuk, really showed me how to sort through hundreds of dividend-paying stocks. I wanted to share some of the tips I learned during the process.
 
Tip No. 1: Long History of the Company Paying the Dividend
 
Tip No. 2: Payout Ratio of No More Than 80% of the Company's Earnings Per Share
 
When our team compiled the list of dividend-paying stocks, they listed them by yield going from the highest to the lowest. Naturally, I went straight to the top of the list.
 
But our analysts quickly pointed out that if a company earns $0.50/share and is paying a dividend of $0.75/share, it could be in trouble. It's important to compare the earnings per share and the dividends per share of any investment candidate.
 
If you're considering investing in a company with an unusually high payout ratio, always investigate where the money to pay the dividends is coming from.
 
Tip No. 3: Worldwide Market Presence
 
The Miller's Money Forever team is very concerned about inflation of the U.S. dollar. Companies that do business all over the world provide somewhat of a hedge against inflation. McDonald's, Coca-Cola, Procter & Gamble, and General Mills are a few household names that come to mind.
 
Tip No. 4...
 
 
More on retirement: 
 
 
 

Central bank of Russia to keep buying gold

Posted: 24 Jan 2013 09:56 AM PST

If it's not China it's Russia – buying gold that is. And according to an article out of Reuters it looks like Russia's appetite for gold isn't letting up anytime soon: DAVOS, Jan 24 (Reuters)...

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A Wafer-Thin Mint

Posted: 24 Jan 2013 09:42 AM PST

Wow, there's a lot going on today. As expected, gold's getting whacked ahead of option expiry and FND. Silver is getting shoved back, too, but all must be well...the stock market is up again!

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What did you think they'd do?

Posted: 24 Jan 2013 09:30 AM PST

The Debt Ceiling Extension Is Bad News for the Economy

Yesterday Congress voted to "temporarily" (nothing in government is ever temporary) extend the debt ceiling for 3 months to give them time to negotiate the fiscal cliff and sequester issues.  Upon hearing this I immediately decided to call Visa and inform them that I had decided to temporarily (for 3 months until it becomes permanent) increase my credit line while I figure out how not to tighten my family's belt.  I explained to them that I'd be taking a couple, maybe 3 cash advances so I'd be able to make the minimum payments each month but not to worry as they's be on time.  You see, this is very important to me since I have an excellent credit rating (recently downgraded only one notch) and don't want to be seen as a deadbeat creditor.

Did you expect anything else?  Do you expect Congress to all of a sudden get a backbone and no longer borrow more?  Do you expect them to tell the country that we must "live within our means?"  The funny thing is that if they did this, people would be so pissed off and no one would be re-elected.  Of course the 50+% who receive "assistance" would vote them out because of benefit cuts but even those who pay in will vote them out as taxes rise and the economy implodes destroying jobs and businesses.  Can't anyone see that the economy "left to its own" and without deficits (they really do matter don't they?) would "grow" at an 8-10% lower clip (which by the way would be seen as a DEPRESSION)!  …And the stock market would trade down maybe 70-80% before finding any support, interest rates would immediately rise to 5% and then start going up, and the banks… insurance companies… bread lines?  Do you see what would happen if we really, truly lived within our means?  Like real people?  Real businesses?  This would be suicidal!

All 3 issues, the debt ceiling, sequestration and the fiscal cliff are all one and the same discussion.  They were all caused by the same policies and none of the 3 have a solution.  I have to say that I don't have a solution for you either, I say this because of the old saying that you "shouldn't criticize unless you have a better idea" or answer.  Well I do… sort of… but defaulting on everything and going back to a Gold backed currency would be painful and we all know that "pain" must be avoided at all costs.

I was asked the other day whether or not I thought that our current "state of affairs" was by stupidity or intentional.  I wrote about this (I believe in 2009) and came to the conclusion that NO ONE could be this stupid!  Greedy?  Yes, you can get anyone to vote for anything… IF it benefits them personally (like getting re-elected).  But if you were "running the show" for your country's benefit (which would benefit you and your great great grandchildren) you would never ever have steered this country to the position (ditch) it is now in.  No, we are where we are, not by mistake, not by error or stupidity (except individual greed) but because it was PLANNED!

Let me explain this a little bit further.  Do you believe that "Americans" are running this country?  You shouldn't.  You should read a little bit of history (read the book "The creature from Jekyll Isle") and you will see that the creation of the Federal Reserve in 1913 was none other than the beginning on the road to where we are now.  The Federal Reserve is neither "Federal" or a "Reserve".  The Fed is a private entity owned by "families" (sounds like the mafia doesn't it?), several from Europe who "control" our money.  Without going into a long explanation, just remember that Baron Rothschild was not only famous for being immensely rich, he coined the phrase "Give me control of a nation's money and I care not who makes her laws."  We are exactly 100 years after "giving" (stolen) away control of our money, as the title suggests, "What did you think would happen?"

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Silver Shortage Spreads to Canadian Maples, Canadian Mint Begins Rationing Maples!

Posted: 24 Jan 2013 09:20 AM PST

Over the weekend we gave SD readers a unique inside look at the developing shortage in silver from a wholesale perspective. On Monday, we updated readers that the shortage appeared to be spreading to Canadian Maples, as wholesale premiums had been raised several times throughout the day. The shortage of Canadian Maples has now been [...]

Traders "bored" by gold but long-term case "robust" as Russia buys, Spain sell

Posted: 24 Jan 2013 09:06 AM PST

Meantime at the World Economic Forum of policy-makers and business leaders in Davos, Switzerland, "We are buying gold and will continue to pursue this course," said Russia's first deputy chairman Alexei Ulyukayev today.

I’m Mad and Today I’m Going to Rant!

Posted: 24 Jan 2013 09:00 AM PST

READ THE FULL NEWSLETTER

Today I feel like ranting – call me Ranting Andy Junior.  Here in Miami, I get the Minneapolis Star Tribune on my Apple computer every morning.  Today's headline read, "Dayton: Widen Sales Tax, Increase Top Income Rate."  Minnesota is one of the most liberal states in America.  The Democrats control our legislature.  Our governor, Mark Dayton is a Democrat.  We have a $38 billion budget but with a Democratic legislature and governor, we were only able to cut $225 million in spending.  Dayton is proposing a new fourth-tier tax bracket for the top 2% which will raise the state tax on those earning over $250,000/year (couples) to 9.85%.  Minnesota is following Obama's lead – tax the rich!

In April 2006, Time Magazine rated Dayton as "America's worst overall Senator."   (Jesse – Ventura – where are ya when we need you?)  He was labeled "The Blunderer" for his erratic behavior.  With those qualifications, he became Minnesota's governor on a platform of tax the rich.  He has no idea how to run a business and, as a member of the Dayton family, one of the wealthiest families in Minnesota, he grew up in the midst of vast wealth and was nurtured with a golden spoon.  He married a woman from a prominent national bloodline whose wealth exceeds his own.  It's so easy for the ultra-wealthy to be generous with other people's money.

If the new state sales tax laws he is proposing take affect, then the tax will expand to advertising, accounting, legal fees and clothing over $100.  If passed by our very liberal legislature, companies like General Mills, Target, Best Buy and other mega-employers will be forced to consider re-locating to states like Wisconsin or South Dakota that have much friendlier tax laws toward business.  What a fool our governor is!

Raising taxes on MY income, on Miles Franklin's legal and accounting bills and advertising will not cause me to relocate my business, but you can be sure we will not be doing any new hiring or spending any unnecessary money on business improvements.  Between the State of Minnesota and the Obama Administration, a war is being waged on those who are successful and create jobs.  I don't see things improving.  We will all adjust by spending LESS, which will mean fewer jobs and reduced tax revenues.  What wonderful wisdom we are blessed with from our politicians!

Years ago, when I worked for Champion, selling athletic uniforms and workout gear and printed sportswear to schools and retailers, (you all have seen the Champion brand on t-shirts, underwear and socks on the shelves at Target and Costco) they came up with a new commission rate.  6% on sales up to $1 million and 1% on sales over that number.  This kind of stupid policy destroys incentive to work harder and earn more.  And it is now morphed into our tax structure.

Using back of napkin math (the only kind I am any good at), on all earnings in excess of $250,000 there is an increase in the Federal tax (with the new Obamacare law) to somewhere around 52%.  In Minnesota, the state tax will be 9.8%.  Add to that, hefty real estate taxes and sales taxes.  For many of us, we will be lucky if we get to keep twenty cents of every dollar we work hard to earn, after taxes.  Where is the incentive to grow our business, or hire new employees or expand or upgrade office furniture and computers?  Higher taxes on the rich and small business owners will lead to LESS spending, less hiring and LOWER tax revenues.  What fools we vote into office!

At least I have been lucky enough, through hard work and a few good business decisions, to put some money away.  For those who have not set aside a nest egg yet, lot's of luck to ya.  Maybe you can still get ahead with monster gains in gold and silver, providing the bleeding hearts don't decide to tax it all as "obscene profits" – which were actually the result of investing smartly to avoid the demise of the dollar, created by Washington's horrible policies and decisions.

I was talking to a lady in our building who is a nail tech.  She said she plans on retiring at some point, and is saving $5,000 a year.  Who is she kidding?  In 30 years she will have set aside $150,000, and since interest rates are so low, there is virtually no compounding affect, she will have to risk it in the stock market or end up with a very low amount to retire on.  Based on the rate of inflation and the certain increase in the rate as time goes by, she will be lucky if every dollar she takes out that she set aside this year is worth $0.15 or $0.20 and I may be generous here.  Maybe if she is lucky, her 30 years worth of savings will buy her a couple of years.  Then what???

The middle class is vanishing.  Retirement for most Americans is no longer an option.  Worse, if the senior citizens have to continue to work to make ends meet, where are the job openings for the young kids coming into the workplace?

What most Americans have yet to figure out is that this is a zero-sum game.  We do not create wealth by taking it from the rich and giving it to the poor.  In fact, the opposite happens.  As my taxes go up, I cut expenses.  I may give up a vacation, the purchase of a new car, more expensive office space, and more sales people.  We may think twice about eating out, and start going to fewer movies, sporting events and concerts.  We can cut back by buying fewer new clothes, cut back on the cleaning lady, the handyman, the people who do yard work, the list is endless.  The result is LESS taxes collected and we go even deeper into the hole and the clueless politicians will try and raise our taxes even higher.

One thing that seems certain is that people spend up to their income.  They create a need for income commensurate to their earnings.  When they have to absorb a hefty tax increase, it becomes difficult to meet their monthly cash flow needs.  Something has to give.  People earning $300,000, $400,000 even $500,000 a year spend every cent.  How will they deal with the increased taxes?  By cutting back on their spending, that's how!  These people are NOT RICH, they are, by today's standards, upper middle class.

Using a simple analogy, a Mercedes 280-SL cost $10,000 in the early 1970s.  A new Corvette cost $4,500.  Today the Mercedes costs well over $110,000 and the Corvette probably around $60,000 or more.  Let's be conservative and say it cost ten times more to buy the same thing today than it did 40 years ago.  Today's $250,000 is nothing more than the $25,000 a year I earned in 1971 selling industrial chemicals.  And I wasn't rich then either.  When I was growing up, a million dollars used to be the standard for being rich.  Not today.  Put a million in the bank and try living off of the interest – $10,000 or $20,000 a year.  Everything is so screwed up and upside down.  I feel for my grandchildren.  They will not experience a world with endless opportunities that I was blessed to be born into.  My timing was perfect – theirs is not.

Pretty soon, all that will be left are the super rich – and everyone else.  The banks get trillions and Main Street gets welfare.  Obama is not offering hope, nor new jobs; he is offering people a way to get by for free, without work or effort.  That's where the votes are.  If you want to see how this ends up, visit an Indian reservation and see what decades of welfare has done to initiative and motivation.  When you don't work, your self-esteem suffers.   Don't our leaders understand that you teach people how to fish; you don't give them a fish?

I don't recall hearing about people starving on the streets before welfare.  Families helped out.  The church and charities helped out.  It was not socially acceptable to live on welfare (nor to have a child out of wedlock).  People would get a job, any job in the name of dignity.  There are jobs out there, many are of the minimum wage variety, but at least they are jobs.  Virtually anyone who wants to work can find something to do.  But why bother when the government will pay you for doing nothing?

Wait until the inflation that Jim Sinclair talks about hits us.  It's coming, and all those folks on the dole will find out that their government handouts will not put sufficient food on the table or heat their homes in the winter, when prices of food and energy start to explode.  Hey, even now, 15% of all Americans need assistance and are on food stamps.  Try taking the handouts away.  Some would say we are headed toward class warfare.  Envy and hatred will surface and it will be focused on the "rich."   Who are the "rich?"  Why, they are anyone making more than you do.

Today, there was an advertisement on Moneynews.com.  It is titled, "The End Game for U.S. Quantitative Easing: A Death Knell for Gold Prices."  What do I think about this advertisement?  Well, if you actually believe that the Fed can stop QE and you disagree with my analysis – or that from Jim Sinclair (QE to Infinity), then sell your gold and go for their sales pitch.  The second the Fed stops buying our bonds, the following will come into play; interest rates will start to rise, the real estate market will plunge, the stock market will crater, the interest on the debt will increase at the rate of over $160 million per percentage point of the rise in interest.  That will compound the problem of trillion dollar annual deficits.  Do you really think this will happen?  If you do, I have a bridge to sell you – in Brooklyn.  No politician nor Fed head will allow this to happen on their watch; you can count on that.  Moneynews.com, shame on you for publishing this trash.

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From Cold War to Gold War: Russia Invades Paper Empire; Gold and Silver Shorts To Take Huge Bath

Posted: 24 Jan 2013 08:53 AM PST

Russia Central Bank to Keep buying Gold DAVOS, Jan 24 (Reuters) – The Russian central bank will continue to buy gold as it seeks to diversify its foreign reserves away from paper assets it views as risky, First Deputy Chairman … Continue reading

The Money Powers VS. Silver, Gold & the People — Mike Krieger

Posted: 24 Jan 2013 08:52 AM PST

Our friend Sean from SGTReport has released an interview with Mike Krieger of LibertyBlitzkrieg.com discussing the perceived silver shortage – is it real, or just hysteria? Is Apple really having a hard time securing physical silver for fabrication as one of their contractors claimed last week? They discuss the Central Banks and the world powers [...]

Faber to Shiller: “You keep your U.S. dollars and I’ll keep my gold”

Posted: 24 Jan 2013 08:41 AM PST

In response to a question from Yale University's Robert Shiller querying the recommendation to hold gold, Faber said: "I'm prepared to make a bet, you keep your U.S. dollars and I'll keep my gold, we'll see which one goes to zero first."

Valuation divide may signal gold bull run similar to the early '80s

Posted: 24 Jan 2013 08:40 AM PST

After months of turmoil, now is a great time for those gold companies that don't need handouts to take advantage of the resulting valuation differential, says Paolo Lostritto. An interview with The Gold Report.

After the massive gold nugget find in Australia searches for ‘metal detecting’ hit 8 year high

Posted: 24 Jan 2013 08:37 AM PST

Some lucky chap in Australia found a massive 5.5kg nugget using his metal detector. Which made us wonder if the trend for metal detecting would increase as a result. And sure enough when we looked on...

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Zimbabwe seeks LBMA reentry with Gold production hike

Posted: 24 Jan 2013 08:22 AM PST

According to country's Chamber of Mines, country's gold output rose 13,4 percent last year to 14 742kg from 12 992kg a year earlier, but fell short of the targeted 15 000kg.

Royal Canadian Mint Hits Silver Supply Shortage, Limits Dealer Allocation

Posted: 24 Jan 2013 08:06 AM PST

by Jason Hamlin
Gold Stock Bull

Last week the U.S. Mint announced that it had run out of its initial production of 2013 Silver Eagles and that new shipments would not be available until late January. At that point, sales are expected to be resumed under an allocation process. The Mint has used an allocation process to ration available supplies amongst their primary distributors in the past, as opposed to allowing the distributors to buy as many as they want or need.

On the first day of availability for 2013-dated Silver Eagles, authorized purchasers had placed orders for 3,937,000 of the one ounce coins. This seemed to mark the highest one-day sales in the entire history of the program. The strong demand has continued with sales now having reached 6,007,000 according to the latest information posted on the Mint's website. The frenzied pace of orders for 2013 Silver Eagles has been driven by the typical rush to acquire the most recently dated coins, as well as pent up demand following three weeks of unavailability. The US Mint had unexpectedly sold out of the 2012-dated coins on December 17, 2012 with no coins available to order until the launch of the 2013-dated coins.

Continue Reading at GoldStockBull.com…

How to END THE FED

Posted: 24 Jan 2013 08:03 AM PST

Why is Gold at a cross road while Silver is outperforming?

Posted: 24 Jan 2013 07:58 AM PST

After reaching the January high, silvers prices dipped back to $ 32.09 on the back of the IMF report and also due to renewed dollar strength. This showcase a strong support on silvers prices because it quickly recovered to $ 32.30 area.

THE MINING INDUSTRY IS ALWAYS ONE STEP BEHIND….

Posted: 24 Jan 2013 07:42 AM PST

By SD Contributor SRSrocco: As I stated in the title… the Mining Industry is always one step behind.  Now that they are COMING CLEAN with CASH COSTS… they still haven't mentioned the upcoming ENERGY CRISIS. MUM'S THE WORD…. Of course we will hear about the negative implications of the future energy crisis as it impacts [...]

Gold now accounts for 10% of Russia reserves

Posted: 24 Jan 2013 07:39 AM PST

Russia's reserves, the world's fourth largest, stand at $526.4 billion. US dollar accounted for 46 percent of the currency portion of the central bank's reserves, and the euro 40.5 percent.

India's Gold import duty hike to increase smuggling

Posted: 24 Jan 2013 07:33 AM PST

Imports of gold reached 223.1 tonnes in the third quarter of this year, up 9% from a year earlier, according to the World Gold Council. India accounted for 30% of global consumer demand for gold.

Silver price falls to $31.8 after a 10% run since January 4th

Posted: 24 Jan 2013 07:31 AM PST

The silver price has fallen back to around $31.8 today. The dip should come as no surprise after a great run up since January 4th of 10%. Silver $ (2 hourly):  (click for sharper image) We've also...

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Investor demand for Gold expected to stay strong: Sucden

Posted: 24 Jan 2013 07:20 AM PST

Market analysts polled by the London Bullion Market Association recently forecasted an average gold price for $1,766/oz, with 77% of those polled expecting a break above $2,000/oz at some point this year.

Newcrest on target to meet production targets after a miss over the past 6 months

Posted: 24 Jan 2013 06:51 AM PST

The world's third-largest gold miner has announced that it will hit its production targets for gold despite the fact that this week saw the miner deliver a weaker production update than expected: The...

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India to bring back household Gold to circulation

Posted: 24 Jan 2013 06:33 AM PST

India also plans to link Gold ETF with gold deposit scheme as this move will enable mutual funds to unlock their physical gold held in ETF and invest in gold-deposit schemes offered by banks.

Gold price slips as gold smuggling becomes the next big thing

Posted: 24 Jan 2013 05:48 AM PST

After getting as high as $1695 this week the gold price seems to have just run out of enough steam to break through the $1700 level.  Gold has slipped back to around $1675 which makes it even for...

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Faber to Shiller: “You Keep Your U.S. Dollars And I’ll Keep My Gold, We'll See Which One Goes to Zero First!”

Posted: 24 Jan 2013 05:45 AM PST

"Everyone should keep gold in their portfolios" as the precious metal will be able to offer value to investors even in a worst-case scenario, said Marc Faber, the publisher of the Gloom, Boom & Doom report. "In the worst case scenario, in the systemic failure that I expect, it would still have some value," Faber, [...]

Newcrest Gold output up 7% in Q4 2012

Posted: 24 Jan 2013 04:38 AM PST

Newcrest expected gold production of 527,000 ounces at a cost of $681 per ounce but spent $727 for each ounce of the precious metal it produced.

Royal Canadian Mint hits Silver supply shortage

Posted: 24 Jan 2013 03:47 AM PST

The US Mint had unexpectedly sold out of the 2012-dated coins on December 17, 2012 with no coins available to order until the launch of the 2013-dated coins.

Silver can stay firmly on industrial demand this year

Posted: 24 Jan 2013 03:31 AM PST

Investment through silver-backed exchange-traded products is at a record of 19,114 tons globally, which is approximately nine months of mine output.

Forget Germany, Its Turkey's Central Bank We Should Be Watching

Posted: 24 Jan 2013 03:20 AM PST

¤ Yesterday in Gold and Silver

The gold price traded in a very tight range all through Far East and the first part of the London trading day.  The several attempts that the price made to break above the $1,695 spot mark, were easily turned back.

The New York high [$1,696.20 spot] came about twenty minutes after the Comex open...and that was it for the day, as a willing seller came along and sold the price down about ten bucks...and it recovered a few bucks after that.

The low price tick of $1,682.80  spot came around 10:40 a.m. Eastern time.

Gold closes at $1,684.80 spot...down an even $7.00.  Net volume was very light...around 96,000 contracts.

Like the Tuesday trading day, silver had a life of its own yesterday.  The price mostly chopped sideways in a twenty cent range during Far East trading.  The low of the day appeared to come shortly after the London open...and rallied from there.  It really took off at the Comex open...got smacked...and then rallied strongly again after the London p.m. gold fix was in.  The high tick was $32.58 spot...and that came around 10:25 a.m. Eastern.

That rally got hit even harder by a not-for-profit seller...and fifteen minutes later, silver hit its low price tick of $32.04 spot.  The subsequent forty cent rally lasted right up until very shortly before the Comex close and, like Tuesday, got sold off in the electronic trading that followed.

When the smoke cleared, silver was up the magnificent sum of 2 cents...closing the Wednesday session at $32.23 spot.  Volume was around 33,000 contracts.

I thought I'd include the New York Spot Silver [Bid] chart on its own, so you can see the details of the New York trading day with more clarity.  The footprints of JPMorgan et al are more than obvious.

The dollar index opened at 79.87 in early Far East trading on their Wednesday...and had another wild day like it had on Tuesday.  It traded as low as 79.71...and as high as 80.08...and closed 79.86, basically unchanged.  Except for the fifteen minute sell-offs in both silver and gold that accompanied a small portion of the morning dollar index rally in New York, there was virtually no co-relation between the precious metal prices and the currencies yesterday.

Here's the 3-day chart so you can see the bit of a ride the dollar index has had since the Tuesday morning open in the Far East...

Even though the gold price was flat going into the open of the New York equity markets, the shares headed for the nether reaches of the earth immediately...and never looked back despite what gold was doing.  The HUI finished on its absolute low of the day...down 2.87%.

Past experiences have taught me that counterintuitive price action in the shares is, at times, a precursor to a bear raid in the metal itself.

With the odd exception, the silver shares were down across the board as well...but the damage wasn't as bad.  Nick Laird's Intraday Silver Sentiment Index closed lower by 1.73%.

(Click on image to enlarge)

The CME's Daily Delivery Report is hardly worth mentioning, as only 7 silver contracts were posted for delivery on Friday.

Over at GLD they reported a withdrawal of 58,089 troy ounces of gold...and there were no reported changes in SLV.

There was no sales report from the U.S. Mint.

It was a very busy day over at the Comex-approved depositories on Tuesday.  They reported receiving 1,017,030 troy ounces of silver...and shipped 1,942,672 troy ounces out the door.  However...417,547 troy ounces of the activity on both sides of the ledger was a transfer out of the CNT Depository...and into Brink's, Inc.  The big withdrawal [1.52 million ounces] was from Scotia Mocatta.  Tuesday's activity is definitely worth a look...and the link is here.

There was a story out last night that the Royal Canadian Mint went on allocation with its silver maple leaf bullion coin yesterday morning.  At 1:05 a.m. Eastern time this morning, I went on the RCM's Media Room page and looked under News Releases...and saw nothing about it.  Maybe the story was posted elsewhere on the RCM's site...but until I see the hard copy confirmation somewhere, I'll stick this in the 'hearsay category.  However, I just wanted you to know that the story was out there.

Unbeknownst to silver analyst Ted Butler, I stole a couple of paragraphs from his mid-week commentary to his paying subscribers yesterday...which he'll discover when he runs through my column this morning.  The linked essays embedded in it..."Life After Bear Stearns"...is a must read.

"It's just a fact of life that we can't usually see the full picture on any significant silver development at the time. That's because all the details aren't available or visible when we first learn of something new. The best example I can give you was of JPMorgan's takeover of Bear Stearns in 2008. I even wrote an article about it back then titled "Life After Bear Stearns" in which I talked about many of my usual themes, COMEX, COT, SLV and the first sell-out of Silver Eagles by the US Mint. I stand by everything I wrote in that article, but I admit that I had no clue at the time that Bear was the big COMEX silver short. Nor did I know that Bear Stearns most likely failed because of its giant silver short position and its inability to meet a $1 billion margin call on silver. It was only when the August 2008 Bank Participation Report was released and subsequent correspondence from the CFTC that the full facts became known."

"I feel similarly about the big SLV deposit in that we know it is significant, but all the details are missing. At this stage of the game, I feel confident that if and when the full story is known it will parallel and confirm the silver manipulation story to date, just as the real story on Bear Stearns did. The central conclusion of just about everything that comes out in silver is that this has been a manipulated market that is destined to end at some very high final price, no matter what is thrown at it in the interim."

Ted mentioned the August 2008 Bank Participation Report in silver in the above commentary.  Here's Nick Laird's chart of that monthly report in silver going back twelve years.  A cursory glance at the red bars on charts #4 and #5 for August 2008 shows the sudden appearance of Bear Stearns' mega-short position...now on the books of JPMorgan Chase.  Bear Stearns didn't have to report this position to the CFTC on a monthly basis, because it wasn't classified as a bank.  It was, in fact, an investment house.  But that certainly wasn't the case for JPMorgan.  They are a bank...and they had to report.  And they did. [The 'click to enlarge' feature is a must here.]

(Click on image to enlarge)

The other eye-opening development was the sudden appearance of the non-U.S. bank with a monster short position in silver. That showed up in October of 2012...and it's my belief that this non-U.S. bank was none other than Bank of Nova Scotia/Scotia Mocatta.  Note the blue bars in the last four months of data on Chart #4.  I asked them politely on several occasion if they were the new non-U.S. bank that the CFTC mentioned on their website.  They wouldn't say they were...but they didn't deny it, either.

I have a lot of stories again today, so I hope you can at least read the introductions to each one so you get the flavour of the story.

It was obvious that there were not-for-profit sellers about...especially in the silver market.
Miners to cut outstanding gold hedges by 20 Tonnes in 2012. Silver Bars Being Secured By HSBC: Buys $876 Million Worth From Poland. Jeff Nielson: Thinking silver? Talk to the gold bugs. Is the Canadian Mint rationing silver maple leafs?

¤ Critical Reads

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Withdrawn: $114 Billion From Big U.S. Banks

More than $114 billion exited the biggest U.S. banks this month, and nobody's quite sure why.

The Federal Reserve releases data on the assets and liabilities of commercial banks every Friday. The most current figures, covering the first full week of 2013, show the largest one-week withdrawals since the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks. Even when seasonally adjusted, the level drops to $52.8 billion—still the third-highest amount on record, and one for which bank experts and analysts were reluctant to give a definitive explanation.

The most obvious culprit is the expiration of the Transaction Account Guarantee program, the extraordinary federal effort to shore up the country's non-gigantic banks during the 2008 financial crisis. Big banks were considered "too big to fail," while smaller ones were vulnerable to runs. The TAG program backstopped their deposit bases by temporarily offering unlimited insurance on money kept in non-interest-bearing accounts. That guarantee ended on Dec. 31, so a decrease in deposits would be expected first thing in January.

This story appeared on the businessweek.com Internet site yesterday...and our first article of the day is courtesy of Paul Laviers.  The link is here.

Financial Crisis Suit Suggests Bad Behavior at Morgan Stanley

On March 16, 2007, Morgan Stanley employees working on one of the toxic assets that helped blow up the world economy discussed what to name it. Among the team members' suggestions: "Subprime Meltdown," "Hitman," "Nuclear Holocaust" and "Mike Tyson's Punchout," as well a simple yet direct reference to a bag of excrement.

Then they gave it its real name and sold it to a Chinese bank.

We are never going to have a full understanding of what bad behavior bankers engaged in, in the years leading up to the financial crisis. The Justice Department and the Securities and Exchange Commission have failed to hold big wrongdoers to account.

We are left with what scraps we can get from those private lawsuits lucky enough to get over the high hurdles for document discovery. A case brought in a New York State Supreme Court in Manhattan against Morgan Stanley by a Taiwanese bank, which bought a piece of the same deal the Chinese bank did, has cleared that bar.

The results are explosive. Hundreds of pages of internal Morgan Stanley documents, released publicly last week, shed much new light on what bankers knew at the height of the housing bubble and what they did with that secret knowledge.

This longish article showed up on The New York Times website at noon yesterday...and I thank Phil Barlett for sending it along.  The link is here.

The Untouchables: How the Obama administration protected Wall Street from prosecutions

PBS' Frontline program on Tuesday night broadcast a new one-hour report on one of the greatest and most shameful failings of the Obama administration: the lack of even a single arrest or prosecution of any senior Wall Street banker for the systemic fraud that precipitated the 2008 financial crisis: a crisis from which millions of people around the world are still suffering. What this program particularly demonstrated was that the Obama justice department, in particular the Chief of its Criminal Division, Lanny Breuer, never even tried to hold the high-level criminals accountable.

What Obama justice officials did instead is exactly what they did in the face of high-level Bush era crimes of torture and warrantless eavesdropping: namely, acted to protect the most powerful factions in the society in the face of overwhelming evidence of serious criminality. Indeed, financial elites were not only vested with immunity for their fraud, but thrived as a result of it, even as ordinary Americans continue to suffer the effects of that crisis.

Worst of all, Obama justice officials both shielded and feted these Wall Street oligarchs (who, just by the way, overwhelmingly supported Obama's 2008 presidential campaign) as they simultaneously prosecuted and imprisoned powerless Americans for far more trivial transgressions. As Harvard law professor Larry Lessig put it two weeks ago when expressing anger over the DOJ's persecution of Aaron Swartz: "we live in a world where the architects of the financial crisis regularly dine at the White House." (Indeed, as "The Untouchables" put it: while no senior Wall Street executives have been prosecuted, "many small mortgage brokers, loan appraisers and even home buyers" have been).

No surprises here in this excellent must read essay posted in The Guardian yesterday.  However, the 1-hour embedded PBS program will take a chunk of your time...and you may want to revisit that part of it later...but I would bet it's worth watching.  I thank U.K. reader Tariq Khan for sharing this with us...and the link is here.

Central bankers should be brought to heel by elected parliaments

Intellectual fashion is changing. Central bankers around the world no longer command the charisma of a high priesthood.

Nor should they after stoking a global bubble and then tightening just as the money supply was collapsing in mid-2008.

The onus is falling on them to justify why monetary independence is self-evidently a good thing, and why central bankers should operate beyond democratic control.

The humbling of the Bank of Japan (BoJ) this week is just the start, as Bundesbank chief Jens Weidmann warned. "It is already possible to observe alarming infringements, for example in Hungary or in Japan, where the new government is massively involving itself in the affairs of the central bank, is emphatically demanding an even more aggressive monetary policy and is threatening an end to central bank autonomy," he said.

Ambrose Evans-Pritchard is on a tear...and this commentary was posted on the telegraph.co.uk Internet site on Tuesday evening.  It's Roy Stephens first offering of the day...and the link is here.

Cameron: I'll hold an in-out vote on Europe

The Prime Minister warned yesterday that democratic consent for the EU is currently "wafer thin" and that "it is time for the British people to have their say".

The pledge to hold a referendum if the Conservatives win the next election was made in Mr Cameron's long-awaited speech on Europe, which was delivered yesterday morning.

He stressed that, for the sake of "generations to come", Britain should remain a member of the EU, but that the terms of the relationship should be renegotiated. Mr Cameron is not expected to set out which powers he believes should be repatriated from Brussels.

This article appeared the day before he spoke...and I've changed the above to read in the past tense as the speech was given after this article was written.  It showed up on The Telegraph's website late on Tuesday night...and it's Roy Stephens second offering in a row.  The link is here.

Nigel Farage Couldn't Stop Laughing During David Cameron's Big EU Speech

Last Friday morning, there had been bacon rolls, an enormous pile of them – Nigel Farage's press officer gestured with his hand to show just how enormous – ready for the journalists who would assemble to watch the Ukip leader watch David Cameron's long-trailed s

Four King World News Blogs

Posted: 24 Jan 2013 03:20 AM PST

The first is with Keith Barron...and it's headlined "Massive Squeeze Coming as WGC Confirms Gold-Backed Yuan".  In second place is this interview with Dr.

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Jay Taylor interviews GATA secretary Chris Powell as Vancouver conference concludes

Posted: 24 Jan 2013 03:20 AM PST

GATA's secretary/treasurer was interviewed for about 20 minutes on Tuesday at the conclusion of the Vancouver Resource Investment Conference by newsletter writer Jay Taylor on his Internet radio program, Turning Hard Times Into Good Times. Topics included the Bundesbank's attempted repatriation of some of Germany's gold reserves as well as GATA's work generally.

The interview begins at the 15:30 mark at the voiceamerica.com Internet site...and the link is here.

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