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Wednesday, January 23, 2013

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The end of gold cash costs as we know them?

Posted: 23 Jan 2013 06:00 PM PST

Recent announcements from Yamana, Goldcorp, Freeport and Newmont on the manner in which they present costs indicate that changes are afoot, finally.

Aurizon tells shareholders to reject Alamos bid

Posted: 23 Jan 2013 02:50 PM PST

Calling it inadequate and opportunistic, Aurizon has advises its shareholders not to accept an unsolicited $785.1 million takeover offer from rival Alamos Gold.

Commodity Technical Analysis: Gold Former Resistance is Estimated Support at 1679

Posted: 23 Jan 2013 01:06 PM PST

Silver telling us it wants to break higher

Posted: 23 Jan 2013 12:42 PM PST

What is becoming clear is that silver's role as an investment medium is growing by the day, as it continued to be strong on Wednesday.

Buying silver as Kyle Bass makes the case for hedge funds

Posted: 23 Jan 2013 12:20 PM PST

Up to this point, no major or big money has entered the silver market or stood for delivery in a significant way outside of outspoken Toronto-based silver ETF manager Eric Sprott.

After a multi-year rally, international investors are getting extremely bullish

Posted: 23 Jan 2013 12:03 PM PST

From Bloomberg:
 
International investors are the most bullish on stocks in at least 3 1/2 years, with close to two-thirds planning to raise their holdings of equities during the next six months, according to a Bloomberg survey.
 
As the global financial and business elite gather in Davos for their annual forum, 53 percent of respondents to the Bloomberg Global Poll also say equities will offer the highest return in the next year. That’s a 17 percentage point jump from the last poll in November and the most since the quarterly survey of investors, analysts, and traders who subscribe to Bloomberg began in July 2009.
 
Behind the enthusiasm for shares: growing confidence in the U.S. economy and ebbing concerns about Europe. America is in its best shape in two years, according to the poll, with a majority of the 921 surveyed on Jan. 17 describing the economy as improving. In a sign the euro-area's three-year debt crisis is easing, only 45 percent said the region's economy is still deteriorating, down from seven in 10 two months ago.
 
"There does appear to be some cautious optimism that things are slowly being resolved," Ben Kelly, an equity analyst at Louis Capital Markets in London and a poll participant, said in an e-mail. "There are some positive shoots that people are grabbing on to."
 
Davos
 
The signs of greater confidence in the economic and equity outlook lend an upbeat tone to this week's five-day gathering in Davos, Switzerland of 2,500 executives, policy makers, investors, and academics. Delegates include German Chancellor Angela Merkel and European Central Bank President Mario Draghi, both of whom won praise in the poll. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS) Chief Executive Officer Lloyd Blankfein and billionaire investor George Soros will also be there.
 
"There's a great sense of relief we dodged a lot of bullets in 2012 -- we didn't go off the fiscal cliff in the U.S., Europe didn't have a meltdown, and China didn't have a hard landing," said Nariman Behravesh, chief economist at IHS Inc. (IHS) in Lexington, Massachusetts, who will be in Davos. "There are definitely pockets of good news with recoveries in North America and parts of Asia gathering momentum."
 
U.S. economic activity picked up across much of the country last month, boosted by automobile and home sales, the Federal Reserve said on Jan. 16 in its Beige Book survey of business conditions.
 
U.S. Effect
 
The improvement in the U.S. is having a "positive effect throughout the world," according to Sriram Srinivasan, chief executive officer of Wall Street Investment Management in Chantilly, Virginia, and a poll respondent.
 
The global economy is in its best shape since May 2011, according to the survey, with 35 percent of those contacted saying it is getting better. That's about twice the number who say the outlook is worsening. European investors were the most upbeat; U.S. respondents the least.
 
"The positive wealth effect caused by rising stock markets creates a big global confidence boost," Srinivasan said in an e-mail.
 
Equity market gains are expected to be widespread. More than three-in-five surveyed forecast the Standard & Poor's 500 Index (SPX) and the MSCI Asia Pacific Index (MXAP) will be higher six months from now. The U.S. index closed at a five-year high of 1,485.98 in New York on Jan. 18 and the Asian gauge rose 0.3 percent today as of 3:57 p.m. in Tokyo.
 
Abe's Election
 
Perceptions about Japan's prospects have brightened considerably following the election of Shinzo Abe as prime minister last month. Abe has pledged to revitalize the Japanese economy through both fiscal and monetary means, a program generally viewed optimistically by 54 percent of respondents.
 
The Bank of Japan (8301) said today after a policy meeting it will double its inflation target to 2 percent and move to open-ended asset purchases starting in January 2014.
 
One-in-five investors say Japanese markets will be among those offering the best opportunities over the next year, the best rating the country has received since the poll began asking that question in October 2009.
 
A majority see the Nikkei 225 (NKY) Stock Average rising over the next six months, compared with only one-in-three who thought that in November. The stock gauge slipped 0.4 percent today to close at 10,709.93.
 
More than three years since the start of Europe's debt turmoil, the region's shares are seen as doing better. More than two-in-five investors say the Euro Stoxx 50 Index and the U.K.'s FTSE 100 Index will be higher six months from now, roughly double those forecasting a decline.
 
Risk Appetite
 
"Investors are tired of low yields in safe-haven assets so equities, both in developed and emerging markets, are the natural place to look," said Ciaran Woods, an analyst at Citigroup Inc. in London and a poll participant. "We have a reasonably constructive base for riskier assets this year."
 
Forty-six percent of investors intend to increase holdings of emerging market equities in the next six months, compared with only eight percent planning to reduce exposure, the survey found.
 
A majority of those quizzed say bonds will offer the worst returns over the next year. Almost three-in-five expect to reduce their holdings of U.S. Treasury securities in the coming six months, while less than one in 20 plan on an increase.
 
The yield on the 10-year Treasury note stood at 1.84 percent at 5 p.m. in New York on Jan. 18, according to Bloomberg Bond Trader pricing. Since 1994, it has averaged 4.7 percent.
 
Bond Returns
 
"The current low yield from bonds, and the potential for at least the start of talk of a rate increase towards the end of the year, could result in much worse returns from bonds compared to stocks," Fabien Ouellette, Associate Portfolio Manager at ETF Capital Management in Toronto, said in an e-mail. Ouellette, who took part in the poll, added that his comments do not necessarily reflect his company's opinions.
 
The U.S. came out on top with 38 percent when investors were asked which one or two markets would offer the best opportunities over the next year.
 
"The U.S. is the best place to invest for the next five years because of the commitment by the Federal Reserve to inflate the economy," Ron Anari, who took part in the poll and who is a senior vice president at ICAP Plc. in Jersey City, New Jersey, said in an e-mail.
 
Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke, who received a favorable rating from seven out of 10 investors in the poll, has pledged to keep purchasing Treasury and mortgage-backed securities until the outlook for the labor market improves "substantially."
 
China Rising
 
China ranked second among investors as a good place to invest in the coming year: About a third endorsed the outlook for its markets, the best performance in more than two years.
 
The country's economic growth accelerated for the first time in two years at the end of 2012 as government efforts to revive demand drove a rebound in industrial output, retail sales, and the housing market. Gross domestic product rose 7.9 percent in the fourth quarter from a year earlier, up from 7.4 percent in the third.
 
Thirty-five percent of those surveyed think that European Union markets will offer the worst returns over the coming year. That was down though from 41 percent in November and 62 percent in May.
 
Although a majority don't believe recent gains in European bond markets signal the crisis is over, 44 percent disagree -- compared with 28 percent a year ago. Thirteen percent say they will increase exposure to the region's sovereign debt in the next six months, almost double the November level. Fifteen percent say they will increase exposure to the euro in the next six months, up from 8 percent.
 
European Defaults
 
While 69 percent still see Greece as likely to default, that's the smallest amount since September 2010. Thirty percent say Portugal won't be able to pay its bills, almost half the rate of a year ago, and Spain is viewed as credit-worthy by 68 percent, the most in a year. Only 12 percent say Ireland is likely to default and 17 percent say the same of Italy.
 
Spain today sold six-month bills today at 0.888 percent, a decline of almost half from the previous auction a month ago and the lowest rate paid since March.
 
Praise for taming the crisis has been handed to Draghi for devising an as-yet-untapped bond-buying program and Merkel for accepting a continued lifeline for Greece. Seventy two-percent view Draghi positively while optimism in Merkel's policies rose to a record 64 percent as she seeks re-election.
 
"I am very confident in Germany's ability to take the leadership role," Anari said. "Angela Merkel is a very competent leader."
 
By contrast, French President Francois Hollande's program is viewed with pessimism by 76 percent and U.K. Prime Minister David Cameron's rating declined to a low of 39 percent. International Monetary Fund Managing Director Christine Lagarde was regarded favorably by 59 percent.
 
The Bloomberg Global Poll was conducted Jan. 17 by Selzer & Co., a Des Moines, Iowa-based firm. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.2 percentage points.
 
To contact the reporter on this story: Rich Miller in Washington at rmiller28@bloomberg.net; Simon Kennedy in Davos at skennedy4@bloomberg.net.
 
To contact the editor responsible for this story: Chris Wellisz at cwellisz@bloomberg.net; Craig Stirling at cstirling1@bloomberg.net.
 
More on sentiment:
 
 
 

Twelve smart dividend rules every retirement investor should know

Posted: 23 Jan 2013 12:03 PM PST

From Dennis Miller of Casey Research:
 
Many of you have probably filled out one of the "retirement planner" forms available online. Plenty of tax and accounting programs also have "Lifetime Planner" sections for folks to determine if they can afford to retire.
 
These sorts of programs plug certain assumptions into a formula, such as projected inflation rate, retirement income, anticipated spending levels, and portfolio growth rate. After you add your personal information, it projects how much money you'll be able to produce annually during retirement, and how long it will last.
 
The first time I ran these numbers, the program said I was good until 116 years of age. At the time, I believed that if we followed the plan as outlined, my wife and I would never have any real money worries. We'd be set for the rest of our lives and could proudly leave some to our children to help with their retirement. How naïve of me!
 
Things have sure changed a lot since then.
 
At the time, I'd estimated inflation at 2% and a minimum yield on our portfolio of 6%. In those days, that was conservative. Inflation was lower than 2%, and you could always earn 6% on a top-rated bond or CD.
 
Many retirees and baby boomers are now rethinking the entire retirement process. CDs and top-quality bonds no longer pay enough interest to keep up with inflation.
 
With these options out of the picture, it's no wonder the stocks of big, solid, dividend-paying companies are soaring. Investors hoping to earn a higher return are pouring money into them with the hope of staying ahead of inflation.
 
I'm a firm believer that the days of buying a company stock, putting it in a drawer, and never worrying about it again are over. At the same time, folks contemplating their retirement finances will likely have long-term relationships with certain dividend-paying stocks.
 
While working on our special report, Money Every Month, our lead analyst, Vedran Vuk, really showed me how to sort through hundreds of dividend-paying stocks. I wanted to share some of the tips I learned during the process.
 
Tip No. 1: Long History of the Company Paying the Dividend
 
Tip No. 2: Payout Ratio of No More Than 80% of the Company's Earnings Per Share
 
When our team compiled the list of dividend-paying stocks, they listed them by yield going from the highest to the lowest. Naturally, I went straight to the top of the list.
 
But our analysts quickly pointed out that if a company earns $0.50/share and is paying a dividend of $0.75/share, it could be in trouble. It's important to compare the earnings per share and the dividends per share of any investment candidate.
 
If you're considering investing in a company with an unusually high payout ratio, always investigate where the money to pay the dividends is coming from.
 
Tip No. 3: Worldwide Market Presence
 
The Miller's Money Forever team is very concerned about inflation of the U.S. dollar. Companies that do business all over the world provide somewhat of a hedge against inflation. McDonald's, Coca-Cola, Procter & Gamble, and General Mills are a few household names that come to mind.
 
Tip No. 4...
 
 
More on retirement: 
 
 
 

Gold import tax hike disappoints India buyers

Posted: 23 Jan 2013 12:00 PM PST

India’s passion for gold has led to a rise in its current account deficit, which reached an all-time high of 5.4% of gross domestic product in the July-September quarter.

Forget Germany, check out Turkey's central-bank gold

Posted: 23 Jan 2013 11:40 AM PST

Amid the brouhaha over Germany's gold reserves at the Bundesbank, there's another central bank using gold actively to bolster its currency and financial stability.

Forget Germany – Here's Central Bank Gold Put to Really Good Use

Posted: 23 Jan 2013 11:25 AM PST

How Turkey is using gold to boost stability, reduce interest rates and temper credit growth...

read more

15. 01. 2013 - Empfehlung an die Regierungen der Euro-BRICS: Treffen Sie sich zu einem Mini- Gipfel Euro- BRICS im Vorfeld des G20- Treffens von St. Petersburg, um dort gemeinsame Strategiepositionen zur Beendigung der Krise zu beschließen und die Gr

Posted: 23 Jan 2013 10:55 AM PST

- Auszug GEAB N°71 (17. Januar 2013) -
15. 01. 2013 - Empfehlung an die Regierungen der Euro-BRICS: Treffen Sie sich zu einem Mini- Gipfel Euro- BRICS im Vorfeld des G20- Treffens von St. Petersburg, um dort gemeinsame Strategiepositionen zur Beendigung der Krise zu beschließen und die Gr
Als Ergebnis des 3. Euro-BRICS- Seminars, das von LEAP in Zusammenarbeit mit MGIMO am 27./28. September 2012 in Cannes veranstaltet wurde, legen die Experten aus Euroland und den BRICS, die sich dort zusammengefunden hatten, die Gründe dar, warum die Regierungen der Euro-BRICS im Vorfeld des G20- Treffens von St. Petersburg einen Euro-BRICS- Minigipfel veranstalten sollten. Diese Empfehlung folgt zwei vorhergehenden Empfehlungen an die Regierungen der G20 von 2009 (Offener Brief an die Regierungen des G20- Treffens von London, vom 24. März 2009) und von 2011 (Empfehlungen an die Regierungen des G20- Treffens von Cannes vom 15. September 2011) zur Bekämpfung der umfassenden weltweiten Krise, die auf der Initiative von Franck Biancheri, Forschungsdirektor von LEAP beruhten, der am 30. Oktober 2012 verstarb. Die folgenden Zeilen sind auch eine Hommage an ihn und die Energie, die er vier Jahre hindurch trotz seiner Krankheit aufgebracht hat, die Ursachen der Krise zu erläutern, strategische Empfehlung zu ihrer Lösung zu erarbeiten und das Umfeld zu schaffen, das ermöglicht, diesen Empfehlungen Gehör zu verschaffen.

2013 wird der Weltöffentlichkeit klar werden, dass es für die amerikanische Überschuldung, die in schwerster Weise die Weltwirtschaft in Mitleidenschaft zieht, keine Lösung mehr gibt: Angesichts der astronomischen Höhe der Schulden und der extremen Schwäche der wirtschaftlichen Grundlagen der USA ist nur eine Entwicklung möglich, nämlich der Zusammenbruch der gegenwärtigen globalen Leit- und Reservewährung US- Dollar. Dies ist die zwingende Folge der Verschuldung und die einzige mögliche Lösung der amerikanischen Schuldenkrise. Die weltweite Krise steht also erneut vor einer dramatischen Zuspitzung. Die Frage, die sich insoweit stellt, ist: Ist die Welt auf einen solchen Schock vorbereitet? Kann sie ihn verkraften?

Sicherlich hat der Rest der Welt seit Ausbruch der Krise 2008 seine Hausaufgaben gemacht und dabei insbesondere ein Ziel verfolgt: Sich aus dem Schulterschluss mit und der Abhängigkeit von den taumelnden USA zu lösen und alles daran zu setzen, von deren Zusammenbruch nicht mitgerissen zu werden.

Unter den vielen Maßnahmen, die weltweit ergriffen wurden, sind zwei besonders auffällig:

- Die beträchtliche Verstärkung Eurolands: Dabei hat den Europäern der Frontalangriff des angelsächsischen Finanzsystems gegen den Euro geholfen. Sie haben widerstanden, die Reihen geschlossen, mutige Entscheidungen getroffen und innovative Mechanismen geschaffen (ESM, Bankenunion usw.), die Rolle der EZB aufgewertet usw. In nur vier Jahren ist Euroland zu einer politischen und wirtschaftlichen Wirklichkeit herangewachsen, die nun mit einer politischen Union unterfüttert werden muss (die Diskussionen darüber haben bereits begonnen), eine Entität des 21. Jahrhunderts und der neue Motor im Prozess der europäischen Integration.

- Das Bündnis zwischen den fünf wichtigsten Schwellenländern des 21. Jahrhunderts, die BRICS (Brasilien, Russland, Indien, China und Südafrika). Diese Gruppe oder Club oder Netzwerk ist eine neue Erscheinung in der Geopolitik, der in vielen Aspekten die Zukunft gehört. In allen wichtigen Statistiken weltweit sind sie vorn mit dabei, ob im Wachstum, Demographie, internationaler Einfluss, Energieverbrauch, Lebensqualität und - Erwartung usw.; die BRICS sind fünf Ländern, die im 21. Jahrhundert von besonderer Bedeutung sein werden. Diese fünf Länder sind weiterhin würdige Vertreter ihrer Kontinente und decken somit fast die gesamte Welt außerhalb des Westens ab.

Euroland und die BRICS teilen ein weiteres, herausragend modernes Merkmal: Die Stärke der BRICS liegt in der strukturellen Leichtigkeit ihres Bündnisses, die ihnen ermöglicht, ihre Energie auf Ziele und Inhalt und nicht auf den Aufbau von Institutionen zu konzentrieren. Und auch Euroland, wenn auch ohne juristische Basis, ist der neue Motor des Prozesses der europäischen Integration, der ganz anders funktioniert als die schwerfällige Gemeinschaftsmaschine der EU. In Zeiten des Internets, der Videokonferenzen und der Netzwerke kommt es auf die Projekte an; die Entitäten, die das verstanden haben, werden hinsichtlich der Effizienz ihrer Aktionen einen deutlichen Vorsprung vor allen anderen haben.

Weiterhin stehen sowohl Euroland wie auch die BRICS vor der Schwierigkeit, in der internationalen Wahrnehmung nur eine simple Währungsunion (Euroland) bzw. ein schlichter Wirtschaftszusammenschluss (die BRICS) zu sein. Aber wenn der Rest der Welt so tut, als existierten sie politisch nicht, wäre es dann nicht eine gute Idee, sich selber anzuerkennen, indem man sich zu einem ersten offiziellen Treffen zusammen findet?

Schließlich teilen Euroland und die BRICS zahlreiche gemeinsame Interessen, ganz vorab ihr Anliegen, eine neue internationale Leitwährung als Korbwährung aus den wichtigsten Währungen weltweit, also US- Dollar, Euro, Britisches Pfund, Yen, Yuan, Real, Rubel sowie Gold zu schaffen, die den heute noch allein herrschenden Dollar ablöst, der nicht mehr in der Lage ist, die Stabilität des internationalen Währungssystems zu sichern.

Während sich diese beiden Entitäten verfestigten und an Bedeutung gewannen, folgten G20- Gipfel auf G20- Gipfel, die alle sich der Lösung der Krise widmeten, die alle aber der entscheidenden Frage auswichen, wie die gegenwärtige internationale Leitwährung im System der Weltwirtschaft (nämlich der Dollar, der die Welt den Risiken des Zusammenbruchs der US- Wirtschaft aussetzt, der nicht mehr repräsentativ für die multipolare Weltwirtschaft ist und damit zentrale Ursache aller aktuellen Verwerfungen und der zukünftig noch wachsenden Verwerfungen) durch einen Währungskorb, z. B. den "Global" ersetzt werden kann.

2009, im Vorfeld des G20- Gipfels von London, dann wieder 2011, im Vorfeld des G20- Gipfels von Cannes, veröffentlichte LEAP wichtige Empfehlungen für die Regierungen der G20- Staaten. Gleichzeitig griffen wichtigere Akteure dieses Thema auf, wie z.B. China. Bedauerlicherweise wurde dieses Thema in den internationalen Zirkeln nie ernsthaft diskutiert, was zeigt, welche Länder über maßgeblichen Einfluss in den wichtigen Institutionen der Weltgovernance verfügen, wodurch die anderen gezwungen wurden, ihre Strategie der monetären und wirtschaftlichen Abkoppelung außerhalb dieses Rahmen zu verfolgen.

Während die ganze Welt dazu aufruft, die internationalen Institutionen an die Gegebenheiten der Welt von Heute anzupassen, führt der Fehlschlag dieser Reform dazu, dass die Länder sich erneut in Blöcken organisieren; welche Risiken in einer solchen Entwicklung bestehen, ist wohlbekannt.

In seinem 2. Offenen Brief an die Regierungen der G20- Staaten führte LEAP aus, dass dank der Machtübernahme einer neuen Generation von Regierungschefs ab 2012 (Mexiko, Südkorea, China, Indien, Frankreich, Deutschland usw) ein "window of opportunity" von zwei Jahren (2012/2013) offen stehe. Ab Ende 2012 würden sich bei den G20- Treffen überwiegend Regierungen zusammen finden, die nach der Krise an die Macht gekommen waren und nicht vor der Krise, wie dies bis dahin der Fall war. Diese Gegebenheit wurde als positives Vorzeichen dafür gesehen, dass endlich die Möglichkeit bestehen könne, die Blockade am Verhandlungstisch der G20 aufzubrechen.

Was nun aber gerade den nächsten Gipfel anbelangt, der im September in St. Petersburg stattfinden wird, so weckt er viel Hoffnung auf einen Neuanfang. Denn er wird der erste Gipfel der G20 sein, der außerhalb der westlichen Einflusszone zusammen kommt, und man kann eigentlich davon ausgehen, dass Wladimir Putin nicht davor zurückscheuen wird, auch Themen auf die Tagesordnung zu setzen, mit denen er anecken wird, und insbesondere, so bleibt zu hoffen, die Frage einer Reform des internationalen Währungssystems.

Zwar wäre die Aufnahme in die Tagesordnung allein schon ein eindeutiger Fortschritt; aber es ist überhaupt nicht gesagt, dass die auf dem Gipfel anwesenden Staaten auch in der Lage wären, die Gelegenheit zu ergreifen, auch wenn einzelne Staaten einen solchen Vorschlag sehr gerne unterstützen würden. Aber solange die Staaten nicht gemeinsam handeln, können die gegenwärtigen Widerstände nicht überwunden werden.

Ein weiterer möglicherweise positiver Aspekt liegt darin begründet, dass die BRICS wahrscheinlich - sicher ist dies allerdings nicht - dieses Anliegen als Bündnis unterstützen würden. Natürlich haben die BRICS Interesse daran, dass eine neue internationale Leitwährung vereinbart wird, aber ihnen stehen auch andere Lösungen zur Verfügung, die sich aus der Logik der Blockbildung ergeben, die wir schon erwähnt haben. Umso mehr, da selbst diese Fünf gemeinsam noch nicht ausreichend einflussreich sind, um das gegenwärtige Kräfteverhältnis in der G20 zu verändern.

Hingegen dürfte ein Bündnis Euro-BRICS in der Lage sein, innerhalb der G20 die Mehrheit hinter ein solches Projekt zu vereinen: Wenn die 9 Euro-BRICS -Staaten sich geschlossen für ein Projekt aussprächen, dass allgemein als vielversprechend angesehen wird, dürfte es ihnen gelingen, die Mehrheit der Gruppe dafür zu gewinnen und die wenigen Stimmen, die sich unweigerlich dagegen aussprechen würden, zu isolieren.

Aber ein solches Bündnis wird nicht ad hoc geschmiedet. Deshalb wendet sich diese dritte politisch- strategische Empfehlung ganz besonders an die Regierungen der Euro- BRICS innerhalb der G20 und beschränkt sich auf einen einzigen Rat: Präsident Putin organsiert neben dem G20- Gipfel von St. Petersburg im September einen BRICS- Gipfel. Nutzen Sie diesen Gipfel für die Organisation des ersten Euro-BRICS Mini-Gipfels mit dem Ziel, gemeinsame Positionen für die G20- Verhandlungen festzulegen, um dadurch die Entscheidungen der G20 maßgeblich zu beeinflussen. Wenn der G20 auch diesmal versagt nachzuweisen, dass er geopolitisch von Wert ist, werden seine Tage als Instanz der Weltgovernance gezählt sein und die Idee einer Weltgovernance wird untergehen in der Kakophonie der internationalen Organisationen und Zusammenschlüsse, die überall in der Welt aus dem Boden schießen (CELAC, UNASUR, MERCOSUR, ALBA, CAN, ALADI, ALENA, OEA, UA, NEPAD, SADC, COMESA, CEDEAO, UEMOA, CEMAC, Arabische Liga, Eu, AELE, ASEAN, APT, EAC, BRICS, CASSH, Eurasische Union usw.).

Wenn es der G20 gelänge, Einfluss auf die globalen Entwicklungen zu nehmen, würden alle davon profitieren, selbst die Staaten, die diesen Anspruch der G20 radikal ablehnen. Eine multipolare Welt mit einer neuen Weltgovernance, oder konkurrierende nationale oder supranationale Blöcke - beide Entwicklungen sind möglich; nun liegt es an den Regierungen der Euro-BRICS, welchen Weg die Welt einschlägt.

-------------

Anhang:

Protokoll des 3. Euro- BRICS- Seminars in Cannes

15/01/2013 - A recommendation to Euro-BRICS leaders: Organize a mini Euro-BRICS Summit, ahead of the St Petersburg G20, in order to develop common strategic positions to exit the crisis and bring global governance into the XXI° century

Posted: 23 Jan 2013 10:43 AM PST

- Excerpt GEAB N°71 (January 16, 2013) -
15/01/2013 - A recommendation to Euro-BRICS leaders: Organize a mini Euro-BRICS Summit, ahead of the St Petersburg G20, in order to develop common strategic positions to exit the crisis and bring global governance into the XXI° century
As a result of the 3rd Euro-BRICS seminar organized by LEAP in partnership with MGIMO in Cannes on September 27-28, 2012, the experts from Euroland and BRICS countries who gathered for the occasion, wished to give their leaders a series of arguments in favour of holding a mini-Euro-BRICS summit ahead of the St Petersburg G20. This recommendation is in line with two other warnings given to the G20 leaders in 2009 (Open letter to the London-G20 leaders, 03/24/2009) and in 2011 (Advice to the Cannes-G20 leaders, 09/15/2011) relating to the management of the global systemic crisis at the initiative of Franck Biancheri, director of Studies and Strategy at LEAP, who passed away last October 30th. This letter is also intended as a tribute to all the energy he expended over four years, despite his illness: explaining the crisis, formulating policy recommendations to solve it, and creating the tools to make these recommendations heard.

In 2013, the world realizes that the U.S. debt that weighs so heavily on the global economy, has no solution: its astronomical size and the extreme weakness of economic fundamentals in the United States leave nothing more than to predict the collapse of the international currency as the inevitable consequence of and solution to the U.S. debt crisis. Thus the global crisis is about to experience a new dramatic development. The question is: Is the world prepared to bear such a shock?

Indeed, since the first signs of the crisis in 2008, the rest of the world has worked well, especially in one objective: to dissociate itself from the faltering U.S. power and make every effort to avoid being dragged into its probable collapse.

Among the many measures in the world, two are noteworthy:
. the significant strengthening of Euroland: helped in this by the frontal attack led by the Anglo-American financial system against the Euro, the Europeans have stood firm, closed ranks, made courageous decisions, introduced innovative mechanisms (MES, banking union,...), increased the role of the ECB,... In 4 years, Euroland has become a reality now calling for a new step of political union which is finally starting to be debated, an entity rooted in the world of the 21st century, and the new engine of European integration.

. the alliance of five major emerging powers of this young 21st century: the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa). This group, club, or network, is a promising future bearer of innovation in many ways: participating in all the upward-curves of global statistics such as growth, demographics, geopolitical influence, energy consumption, quality of life and expectancy, etc., the BRICS are five countries that the 21st century will de facto have to cope with. These five countries are also the flagships of continents and, for most of them, of regional entities covering covering almost the entire non-Western world.

Euroland and the BRICS share another eminently modern characteristic: one asset of the BRICS is the structural lightness of their association that allows them to focus their energy on goals rather than on the construction of some institutional structure. Euroland also, despite the absence of any legal reality, is de facto the new engine of European integration, leaving the heavy machinery of the EU institutions far behind. At the time of the Internet, video-conferencing and networking, the project prevails, and entities which have understood this have a considerable advance in efficiency over all others.

Euroland and the BRICS also have a common difficulty to be officially recognized as something other than a monetary union on one side and an economic alliance of the other. But since the world pretends to ignore them, why not start recognizing one another through the holding of a first official meeting together?

Finally, many common interests bring Euroland and the BRICS closer, starting with their desire to create a new international reserve currency based on a basket of key international currencies (U.S. Dollar, Euro, Pound, Yen, Yuan, Real, Rouble, gold ...) instead of the U.S. Dollar alone, now unable to take on the role as a pillar of the global monetary system.

While these two entities were gaining weight and structure, G20 Summits followed one another, all of them devoted to the resolution of the crisis but none putting the central question of replacing the basic currency of the global economic system on the agenda (ie the U.S. Dollar, a currency exposing the world to the vagaries of its volatile economy in decline, a currency now unrepresentative of the multi-polar world economy, a central cause of today's disorders and of even greater disorders tomorrow) by a basket of currencies, called the "Global" for example.

In 2009 (ahead of the London Summit) and in 2011 (ahead of the Cannes Summit), LEAP issued two strong recommendations for the G20 leaders. Meanwhile, this issue has begun to be advocated by actors of more significant size, such as China for example. But the subject failed to be seriously tackled in international fori, revealing the influence of some countries on global governance bodies, and forcing the others to build their economic and monetary decoupling strategies outside this framework.

While everyone calls for the adaptation of international institutions to the characteristic of today's world, the failure of this reform gives way to the logic of blocks and all the risks they convey.

In its second open letter to G20 leaders in 2011, LEAP mentioned a window of opportunity of two years (2012-2013) opened by the coming to power of a new generation of leaders: « Mexico, South Korea, China, Indian France, Italy, Germany… from the end of 2012, the G20 Summit would bring together political leaders mainly elected "in the crisis", and not before the crisis as was the case before ». This feature was considered auspicious in terms of the ability to get rid of certain blocks from the G20 table.

As regards the next summit more specifically, that scheduled for September in St. Petersburg, it focuses much hope of renewal because it will be the first to be held outside the Western sphere of influence and the world can a priori rely on Vladimir Putin not to hesitate and put on the agenda sensitive subjects including, hopefully, the question of the reform of the international monetary system.

That said, if putting this question on the agenda would be undeniable progress, it is not certain that the powers gathered around the table will be able to seize the opportunity, despite all their individual goodwill: partly divided goodwill is not able to make a difference.

Another potentially positive aspect consists of the fact that the BRICS will probably - but not certainly – put their alliance to service this cause. Of course, the BRICS have an interest to see a new international currency put in place, but they also have other options available to them, those related to the logics of blocks which have already been mentioned. All the more since, even by combining their five influences, they still lack weight for a real rebalancing of powers.

In contrast, a Euro-BRICS alliance is capable of creating a real majority in the G20: accounting for nine out of twenty of these powers sitting at the table, a Euro-BRICS front defending a project acknowledged as a bearer of positive evolution, is able to win the support of the whole group, marginalizing the few voices that will inevitably rise against.

But such an alliance cannot be improvised. It is for this reason that this third exercise of politico-strategic recommendations is intended for Euro-BRICS leaders of the G20 and focuses on one single recommendation: in the framework of the BRICS Summit scheduled by President Putin on the sidelines of the G20, to plan a first Euro-BRICS mini-summit preparing for the definition of common positions designed to change the balance at work in the decision-making processes of the G20, a body that, if it misses this opportunity to affirm its added-value, will soon disappear from the radar of global governance for the benefit of the great cacophony of supranational entities currently being established throughout the world (CELAC, USAN, MERCOSUR, ALBA, CAN, ALADI, NAFTA, OAS, AU, NEPAD, SADC, COMESA, ECOWAS, WAEMU, CEMAC, Arab League, EU, EFTA, ASEAN, ASEAN+3, EAC, BRICS, CASSH, Eurasian Union, etc ...).

From the reconnection of the G20 to global reality, everyone would be a winner, including the powers that are so fiercely opposed to it. A multi-polar world under the auspices of a renovated global governance, or national and supra-national competing blocks, Euro-BRICS leaders have the cards in hand to steer the world in one way or another.

-------------

Appendix:

Report of Cannes' thrid Euro-BRICS seminar

15/01/2013 - Conseil aux dirigeants Euro-BRICS : Organiser un mini-Sommet Euro-BRICS en amont du G20 de St Petersbourg pour formuler les positions stratégiques communes de sortie de crise et faire entrer la gouvernance mondiale dans le XXI° siècle

Posted: 23 Jan 2013 10:36 AM PST

- Extrait GEAB N°71 (15 janvier 2013) -
15/01/2013 - Conseil aux dirigeants Euro-BRICS : Organiser un mini-Sommet Euro-BRICS en amont du G20 de St Petersbourg pour formuler les positions stratégiques communes de sortie de crise et faire entrer la gouvernance mondiale dans le XXI° siècle
A l'issue du 3° séminaire Euro-BRICS organisé par LEAP en partenariat avec le MGIMO à Cannes les 27 et 28 septembre 2012, les experts des pays de l'Euroland et des BRICS réunis pour l'occasion ont souhaité émettre en direction de leurs dirigeants un argumentaire en faveur de la tenue d'un mini-Sommet Euro-BRICS en amont du G20 de St Petersbourg. Cette recommandation fait suite à deux autres avertissements lancés en direction des dirigeants du G20 en 2009 (Lettre ouverte aux dirigeants du G20 de Londres, 24/03/2009) et en 2011 (Conseils aux leaders du G20 de Cannes, 15/09/2011) relatifs à la gestion de la crise systémique globale à l'initiative de Franck Biancheri, directeur des Etudes et de la Stratégie de LEAP, décédé le 30 octobre dernier. Cette lettre est également un hommage à toute l'énergie qu'il a déployée quatre années durant, malgré la maladie, à expliquer les fondamentaux de la crise, à formuler des recommandations stratégiques pour la résoudre et à créer les plateformes à même de rendre ces recommandations audibles.

En 2013, le monde prend conscience que la dette américaine qui pénalise gravement l'économie globale n'a pas de solution : sa taille astronomique et l'extrême faiblesse des fondamentaux économiques des Etats-Unis ne laissent rien présager d'autre que l'effondrement de la monnaie de référence internationale comme inévitable conséquence de et solution à la crise de la dette américaine. La crise globale s'apprête donc à connaître un nouveau développement dramatique. La question est : le monde est-il préparé à encaisser un tel choc ?

Certes, depuis les premières manifestations de la crise en 2008, le reste du monde a bien travaillé, notamment dans un objectif : se désolidariser de la puissance américaine vacillante et mettre tout en œuvre pour éviter d'être entraîné dans son probable effondrement.

Parmi les innombrables mesures prises dans le monde, deux retiennent l'attention :

. Le renforcement considérable de l'Euroland : en cela aidés par l'attaque frontale menée par le système financier anglo-américaine contre l'Euro, les Européens ont tenu bon, resserré leurs rangs, pris des décisions courageuses, mis en place des mécanismes innovants (MES, union bancaire,…), accru le rôle le BCE… En 4 ans, l'Euroland est devenue une réalité appelant maintenant une étape d'union politique commençant enfin à faire débat, une entité ancrée dans le monde du XXI° siècle, et le nouveau moteur de la construction européenne.

. L'alliance des cinq principales puissances émergentes de ce début de XXI° siècle : les BRICS (Brésil, Russie, Inde, Chine et Afrique du Sud). Ce groupe, ou club, ou réseau, est une innovation porteuse d'avenir à bien des égards : participant à toutes les courbes ascendantes des statistiques mondiales telles que croissance, démographie, influence géopolitique, consommation énergétique, qualité et espérance de vie, etc., les BRICS sont cinq des pays auxquels le XXI° siècle aura affaire de facto ; ces cinq pays sont également les porte-drapeaux de continents et, pour la plupart, d'entités régionales couvrant la quasi-totalité du monde non-occidental.

L'Euroland et les BRICS partagent une autre caractéristique éminemment moderne : ce qui fait la force des BRICS c'est la légèreté structurelle de leur association qui leur permet de concentrer leur énergie sur les objectifs plutôt que de se perdre dans la construction d'un édifice institutionnel. L'Euroland également, sans existence juridique certes, est le nouveau moteur de la construction européenne, laissant loin derrière elle la pesante machine communautaire de l'UE. A l'heure de l'internet, des vidéoconférences et des réseaux, c'est le projet qui prime et les entités qui l'auront compris auront une avance considérable en termes d'efficacité sur toutes les autres.

Ce que l'Euroland et les BRICS ont également en commun, c'est leur difficulté à être officiellement reconnus comme autre chose qu'une simple union monétaire d'un côté et une alliance économique de l'autre. Mais puisque le reste du monde fait mine de les ignorer, pourquoi ne pas commencer en s'entre-reconnaissant par la tenue d'une première réunion officielle commune ?

Enfin, de nombreux intérêts communs rapprochent l'Euroland et les BRICS, à commencer par leur volonté de créer une nouvelle devise internationale de référence fondée sur un panier des principales monnaies internationales (Dollar US, Euro, Livre Sterling, Yen, Yuan, Real, Rouble, or…) en lieu et place du seul Dollar US, désormais incapable de tenir le rôle de pilier du système monétaire mondial.

Alors que ces deux entités se structuraient et prenaient du poids, les Sommets du G20 s'enchaînaient, tous consacrés à la résolution de la crise sans qu'aucun ne mette au programme de ses discussions la question centrale du remplacement de la monnaie de référence du système économique mondial (à savoir le Dollar US, devise exposant le monde entier aux aléas volatils de son économie en déclin, devise désormais non-représentative de l'économie mondiale multipolaire et cause centrale de tous ses désordres actuels et de plus grands désordres à venir) par un panier de devises, le « Global » par exemple.

En 2009 (en amont du Sommet de Londres) puis en 2011 (en amont du Sommet de Cannes), LEAP avait émis deux recommandations fortes à l'intention des dirigeants du G20. Parallèlement, cette question a commencé à être portée par des acteurs plus significatifs, comme la Chine par exemple. Malheureusement, le sujet n'a pas pu être sérieusement abordé dans les enceintes internationales, révélant l'influence de certains pays sur les instances de la gouvernance mondiale, et forçant les autres à construire leurs stratégies de découplage économico-monétaire en dehors de ce cadre.

Alors que tout le monde appelle à l'adaptation des institutions internationales aux caractéristiques du monde d'aujourd'hui, l'échec de cette réforme laisse la place aux logiques de blocs et à tous les risques qui leur sont inhérents.

Dans sa 2° Lettre ouverte aux dirigeants du G20, en 2011, LEAP mentionnait une fenêtre d'opportunité de deux ans (2012-2013) ouverte par l'arrivée au pouvoir d'une nouvelle génération de dirigeants : « Mexique, Corée du Sud, Chine, Inde, France, Italie, Allemagne … à partir de la fin 2012, le Groupe des 20 réunirait pour l'essentiel des leaders politiques élus « dans la crise », et non pas avant la crise comme cela avait été le cas auparavant ». Cette caractéristique était jugée de bon augure du point de vue de la capacité à balayer certains blocages de la table du G20.

En ce qui concerne plus précisément le prochain Sommet, celui prévu en septembre à Saint Petersbourg, il focalise beaucoup d'espoirs de renouveau car il sera le premier à se tenir hors de la zone d'influence occidentale et on peut compter a priori sur Vladimir Poutine pour ne pas hésiter à mettre au programme les sujets qui fâchent et notamment, espérons-le, la question de la réforme du système monétaire international.

Cela dit, si mettre au programme cette question constituerait un progrès incontestable, il n'est pas certain que les puissances réunies autour de la table seront capables de saisir l'opportunité malgré toutes leurs bonnes volontés individuelles : des volontés en partie divisées ne sont pas en mesure de faire la différence.

Autre point éventuellement positif, les BRICS mettront probablement – mais pas assurément - leur alliance au service de cette cause. Bien sûr, les BRICS ont intérêt à voir se mettre en place une nouvelle monnaie internationale, mais ils ont aussi d'autres solutions à leur disposition, celles liées aux logiques de blocs dont on a déjà parlé. D'autant qu'à eux cinq, même en combinant leurs influences, ils ne pèseront toujours pas suffisamment pour un vrai rééquilibrage.

En revanche, une alliance Euro-BRICS est, elle, capable de créer une vraie majorité au sein du G20 : comptant pour 9 sur 20 des puissances présentes autour de la table, un front Euro-BRICS défendant un projet reconnu comme porteur d'évolutions positives, est capable d'emporter l'adhésion du groupe en marginalisant les quelques voix qui s'élèveront inévitablement contre.

Mais une telle alliance ne s'improvise pas. C'est pour cette raison que ce troisième exercice de recommandations politico-stratégiques s'adresse en particulier aux dirigeants des Euro-BRICS du G20 et porte sur une seule recommandation : dans le cadre du Sommet BRICS que le Président Poutine a prévu d'organiser à Saint Petersbourg en marge du G20, programmer un premier mini-Sommet Euro-BRICS consacré à la définition de positions communes dans le but de modifier les équilibres à l'œuvre dans la prise de décision du G20, une instance qui, si elle rate cette occasion d'affirmer sa valeur-ajoutée, ne tardera pas à disparaître des radars de la gouvernance mondiale au profit de la grande cacophonie des entités supranationales en cours de constitution partout dans le monde (CELAC, UNASUR, MERCOSUR, ALBA, CAN, ALADI, ALENA, OEA, UA, NEPAD, SADC, COMESA, CEDEAO, UEMOA, CEMAC, Ligue Arabe, UE, AELE, ASEAN, APT, EAC, BRICS, CASSH, Union Eurasienne, etc.).

De la reconnexion du G20 avec la réalité globale, tout le monde serait gagnant, y compris les puissances qui y sont si farouchement opposées. Monde multipolaire sous une gouvernance mondiale rénovée ou blocs nationaux et supranationaux concurrents, ce sont les dirigeants Euro-BRICS qui ont les cartes en main pour aiguiller la planète sur une voie ou sur l'autre.

-------------

Annexes :

Compte-rendu complet du 3° séminaire Euro-BRICS de Cannes




Thinking Silver? Talk To The Gold-Bugs

Posted: 23 Jan 2013 10:35 AM PST

It is a reality of life that those investors who favor gold (and silver) as their preferred asset-class need to have 'thick skins'. On aggregate, Western investors are holding roughly 1/10th the amount of gold and silver which they have held (in similar circumstances) in the nearly 5,000 since we first began refining "good money."

Strip away the "gold bugs" however, the less-than-5% of the general population who hold virtually all of our gold (and silver); and the Average Investor (in Western societies) is only holding approximately 1% as much bullion as in any similar circumstances, in the thousands of years since we first began refining these metals.

This absurd level of under-ownership comes despite the twelve consecutive years of rising gold prices, a statistic unmatched by any other asset class. Obviously "it's lonely at the top."

While the Corporate Media have engaged in an endless stream of juvenile scare-tactics to try to frighten people away from the world's best-performing asset class, probably the most defamatory of these attacks is the continual insistence that gold-bugs are Zealots – who worship gold like a "religion."

There are many ways to rebut such a ridiculous smear, however perhaps the best way to do so occurred to me while attending a recent international resources conference in Vancouver. As always, the "gold bugs" featured prominently in this conference.

The commodities professionals who put together such shows first of all recognize the best-performing class of commodities (and all assets) when they see it. Secondly, they understand that the much-maligned gold-bugs can be counted on to provide the most interesting and insightful presentations among all of their speakers. It was thus no surprise to see the executive group of the Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee (more commonly known as "GATA") being asked to once again share their knowledge with the attendees of this conference.

It was Chris Powell of GATA who actually inspired my own (minor) epiphany, when he first reminded us of yet another of the scurrilous accusations hurled at the gold-bugs by the mainstream media: that they (we) all are "nothing but a bunch of conspiracy theorists." He then pointed out that in reality GATA was purely-and-simply a non-profit information-gathering entity; who does its research and present its facts to their large-and-growing global audience.

This was not mere assertion. The Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee then went on to demonstrate the truth of that statement by spending most of their allotted time talking about silver. This is not the behavior of zealots. You won't hear devoted Christians saying that while "their god" is good, if you want to see "a really great god" in action you should follow Buddha.

Zealots, by definition, are unwavering believers in their own dogma. Yet not just with GATA but with most of the "community" of gold-bugs, we hear these individuals asserting one-after-another that the real story here is in the silver market.

Understand that the enthusiasm these individuals have for the gold market has not wavered in the slightest. Indeed, for numerous, fundamental reasons the gold-bugs are more optimistic about the future of gold than ever. Put another way, these analysts are more pessimistic than ever about the speed with which our servile governments are destroying our economies.

More than anything, gold-bugs are "detectives": seekers of the Truth, in a world where the Corporate Media bombard us with a deluge of fear-mongering and outright lies to attempt to ward-off investor dollars from entering this sector. Remember all the years that these Liars attempted to dismiss gold as a "barbarous relic"?

That lie had to be abandoned. In fact, gold never ceased being treated as "money" by the same cabal of international banking which produces all of our debauched, "fiat currencies": the central banks. However, it was only after the world's premier Gold Haters were forced to abandon their relentless gold-dumping (because they ran out of gold), and suddenly flip-flopped and began buying gold at the fastest rate in history that the Corporate Media finally jettisoned this absurd lie.

Gold holding steady as Chinese demand slows

Posted: 23 Jan 2013 10:04 AM PST

Gold continued to hover near one-month highs above $1,690 an ounce Wednesday morning, where it has spent most of this week, with dealers in India and China citing a slowdown in physical bullion demand.

Jamie Dimon Blasts Financial Regulation: Businesses Can be Opaque

Posted: 23 Jan 2013 09:52 AM PST

The Morgue's Jamie Dimon blasted financial regulation in the wake of the 2008 financial crisis today at Davos, dropping this beauty of a quote:  Businesses can be opaque. They are complex. You don't know how aircraft engines work either.  Dimon also stated new financial regulations have made things (sheople fleecing) more complicated for The Morgue.  [...]
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Has The Debt Jubilee Already Started?

Posted: 23 Jan 2013 09:32 AM PST

There are three fairly radical ideas floating around the monetary policy world right now. The first is economist Ellen Brown's belief that governments should stop borrowing money and simply create the currency they need, thus bypassing central banks and government bond markets. The second is Australian economist Steve Keen's debt jubilee, in which governments give newly-created money to individuals with which to pay back their debts, in the process resetting the system with lower leverage. The third is that trillion dollar platinum coin thing, where Washington just conjures that much money out of thin air and uses it to evade statutory debt limits — which looks like an ad hoc mash-up of the first two ideas.

Until yesterday these proposals seemed like provocative curiosities, fun to think about but too far off the mainstream radar screen to become official policy anytime soon. Then reader Bruce C responded to a DollarCollapse post about the impact of rising interest expense on US and Japanese budgets:

All of the Treasury bonds owned by the Fed are at effectively zero interest because all interest payments from the Treasury to the Fed are returned to the Treasury. That actually means that total net interest expenses for the Treasury are currently decreasing with time as the Fed buys about $85 billion worth of Treasuries each month (which is about 90% of all new issuances). As long as the Fed is willing to do this the current deficit spending by the US can continue for a lot longer than most analysts think possible (I mean for decades).

I don't know if Japan's central bank (the BOJ) reimburses the Japanese Treasury of its income from government bonds but if it does then there won't be any need to sell JGBs to outsiders who may demand higher interest rates. For the same reason explained above the Japanese government could literally enjoy decreasing debt servicing costs despite rising price inflation. Again, that can't last forever but I wouldn't hold my breath.

This got me to thinking about the way in which the Fed buying bonds and returning the interest payments resembles the three proposals above – and wondering if they're all really the same thing accomplished with different mechanisms. In the Fed interest repayment, debt Jubilee, and trillion dollar coin strategies, the money is filtered through various intermediaries, while in the Brownian scenario it is just created and spent. But in each case, the government creates and spends money without reference to the bond market or budget deficit or anything else.

Is this debt monetization? Or the elimination of the concept of government debt?

At first glance, the flaw in all scenarios in which government takes direct control over the money supply is that, well, government has control of the money supply. That would remove the last vestige of external pressure to control spending and open the floodgates for every vote-buying scheme now festering in the minds of blue-state senators, neo-con chickenhawks, corporate CEOs, and public sector unions. Why would a government that doesn't have to answer to the bond markets ever limit its spending? Taxes, it seems, could be cut to zero while Medicare and the military rise to infinity, all paid for with newly-created cash. Steve Keen, to his credit, couples his debt jubilee proposal with strict new limits on lending and the elimination of fractional reserve banking. But there's no guarantee that such changes would pass as part of that package.

Have we already put such a system in place, waiting only for the guys sitting around the debt ceiling negotiation table to recognize the cornucopia they've created?

Is this the unexpected last act of the fiat currency experiment, in which the pretense of outside control falls away and big government really lets fly?

What would happen to the currencies of countries that free themselves from budgetary restraint and simply buy whatever they want when they want it? Will the dollar, yen and euro become the last barometers of public faith in government, or will they be managed via derivatives fueled with Treasury cash?

Is this the Austrians' crack-up boom on a global scale?

And finally, precious metals. How would gold behave in a world of literally unlimited money creation?

These are brand new, not-fully-formed thoughts and questions, so implications and answers will have to wait for another day.

Some Things Never Change?

Posted: 23 Jan 2013 09:30 AM PST

Italy's Top Bank Lobbyist Resigns After Derivatives Disclosures

Oldest Bank In The World Plunges, Halted As Chairman Resigns In Aftermath Of Latest Derivatives Fiasco

The former chairman of BMPS, the worlds oldest bank resigned yesterday after Bloomberg reported on the derivatives they undertook back in 2008 to "hide" losses.  You see, these derivatives are now "coming due" and the losses must finally be booked.  Ooops!  How could this be?  I thought that the central banks had fixed everything by flooding the market with liquidity and we were saved?  Well, I guess we were until the "clock" started to run out which I guess is somewhere around now!  It makes sense because we are now 5 years+ out from the onset of the train wreck and many deals were done with 5 year maturities.  Back then I am sure that 5 years seemed like an eternity and allowed the losers to breath a sigh of relief but… it wasn't long enough.

The problem as I originally wrote back in 2007 is that "liquidity" buys time and time only, it cannot make bad loans or bad derivatives "good."  Basically nothing has changed over the last 5 years with the exception that balance sheets up and down the ladder are that much more leveraged and the "problem" that much bigger.  Forget that this is the world's oldest bank and that according to them "they didn't break any laws" (even if they did, no one would go to jail), just remember that there are over $1 quadrillion worth of derivatives out there.  Yes, there are winners as well as losers but if the losers can't pay then the "winners" also become losers.

That's the problem with the wonderful derivatives market, they can never perform; they never could from day 1.  The only thing derivatives had the power to do was make it "look" like everything was well and merely kicked the can down the road (sound familiar?).  Kicking the can down the road has been the MO since 2007, hide the reality that you are busted and broke until "good times" return and no one will be the wiser.  In fact, the MO (method of operation) of kicking the can goes all the way back (in reality to 1971 when we went off the Gold standard) to the magician Robert Rubin.  He has actually come out and publicly said that ANYTHING is justified and the consequence be damned if you are forced to do something that buys as little as 6 months time.  Yes, the former Sec. of the U.S. Treasury said this!

No matter what you hear or read, no matter how high the goosed Dow or S+P 500 go, just remember that 1,000′s upon 1,000′s of these ticking time bombs are spread throughout the banking and finance system.  Any one of these can be the "one" that causes, starts, a domino collapse of the entire system.  There are far more derivatives outstanding than there is money to settle these.  There are far more derivatives out there than there is "stuff" to back them.  This is the most obvious no brainer of all of them currently, derivatives which "pumped" the system up and were used to cover and hide the reality of a busted system will be the detonator that blows the entire system from the inside out.

THIS type of news which was hidden and buried can surface on any day at any time of the day which is why you cannot any longer trade.  You can only accumulate more ounces to better your position.  The phrase "counting ounces" will take on a new and very real meaning when the financial cascade finally takes hold!

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Microsoft's Capital Allocation May Be Getting Better, But Still Really Bad

Posted: 23 Jan 2013 09:28 AM PST

By Tim Travis:

On January 22nd, news broke that Microsoft (MSFT) has now entered into the fray to help take Dell (DELL) private with Silver Lake Partners. While I believe that if Dell is taken private below $14 per share, the buyers will get quite a deal over the long-term, I find myself constantly disappointed by Steve Ballmer and Microsoft's capital allocation. Honestly, the technology sector as a whole has some of the worst capital allocation habits, and it is amazing the opportunity cost that these companies are willing to pay to maintain these bastions of tens of billions of dollars in search of the next Autonomy or aQuantive time-bomb. To put my argument in perspective I wanted to look back at my previous article, "How Microsoft Can Win," that was written in November. In the prior article I made four recommendations to Microsoft and Steve Ballmer, that I admit are


Complete Story »

There's a run on the globe's fractional gold reserve farce

Posted: 23 Jan 2013 08:52 AM PST

Central banking with 'other people's gold': A $368bn treasure trove in Lower Manhattan

I Like the Looks of This Gold Chart

Posted: 23 Jan 2013 08:41 AM PST

READ THE FULL NEWSLETTER

Gold has bettered its red 200-day MA and is challenging resistance at 1700.  That is where the blue 50-day moving average stands at 1696.02. RSI and MACD both have turned up and are bullish, as are volume implications.

And now, an important release from Jim Sinclair. This is for those of you who want to know WHY gold will rise, WHEN it will rise and how LOW the dollar will go:

The Entrance To The Second Phase Of The Gold Market Ascendancy – jsmineset.comSimilar Posts:

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Newmont sees 2012 Gold production at 5 million ounces

Posted: 23 Jan 2013 08:39 AM PST

The company stated that the preliminary attributable gold and copper sales of 1.2 million ounces and 42 million pounds for the fourth quarter, respectively.

Jim Sinclair: US Hyperinflation to Start Mid 2013, Run Through 2017!

Posted: 23 Jan 2013 08:36 AM PST

Legendary gold trader Jim Sinclair sent subscribers a shocking and MUST READ email alert last night regarding the possibility that the dollar as reserve currency will enter the initial stages of hyperinflation by mid-year, and the effects the debasement of … Continue reading →

Silver’s Up 675% Since 2001; Here’s Why It Will Go Higher

Posted: 23 Jan 2013 08:27 AM PST

By  for Profit Confidential

Silvers Up 675percent Since 2001As I have written in these pages before, I expect silver prices to outperform gold prices in the years ahead. That opinion hasn't changed.

As gold prices started their flight upwards back in 2002, silver prices followed a similar pattern. Below is a price chart of monthly silver prices since 2001—when gold was trading just below $300.00 an ounce.

$SILVER Silver-Spot Price stock market chart

Chart courtesy of www.StockCharts.com

Silver prices traded as low as $4.00 an ounce in late 2001 and climbed to highs of almost $50.00 an ounce in 2011. While silver prices have retraced a bit, the metal is still up more than 675% from its lows in 2001. Meanwhile, gold prices have risen by about 466%; from $300.00 to around $1,700 an ounce today.

I see a future where silver will become the focus of investors, while gold will be bought by the central banks. We are starting to see that happen at accelerated pace now. You have read extensive articles inProfit Confidential documenting the gold buying of many central banks. And investors are already rushing to buy silver.

To give you some perspective, the U.S. Mint has halted its sales of 2013 American Eagle silver coins, because it ran out of them. Yes, the U.S. Mint ran out of 2013 silver coins! Sales for 2013 silver Eagle coins surpassed five million ounces. (Source: Reuters, January 17, 2013.)

In addition, investors are turning to alternative ways of buying silver. The biggest Exchange Traded Fund (ETF), called the iShares Silver Trust (NYSE/SLV), saw its holdings of silver rise to the highest level in five years. The fund has purchased $579 million worth of silver to bring its total holdings to 10,735 tons.

According to data collected by Bloomberg and Barclays plc, the demand for silver investments is 19,114 tons through exchange-traded funds globally, which equates to about nine months of supply from mines.

This sudden investor interest in silver shouldn't be surprising to my readers. As central banks print more fiat currency, accordingly, silver and gold prices will rise.

With the economies of many countries suffering, money printing will be the "savior" of choice for central banks, and because of that, I expect to see silver prices increase significantly over the next couple of years.

Michael's Personal Notes:

The jobs market in the U.S. economy has attracted attention, as the employment rate has fallen marginally below eight percent for the first time under the Obama Administration. Some are even going as far as saying the U.S. economy is witnessing economic growth.

I have a different view. I believe the jobs market is fundamentally broken and, hands down, the biggest hurdle to economic growth in the U.S. economy. The truth of the matter is that the jobs are being created in industries where wages are low and there are millions of Americans who are still unemployed.

Now, after roaring into a new year, some U.S. companies are facing hardships as their sales outside the U.S. come under pressure. We have already seen companies like Morgan Stanley (NYSE/MS) and Citigroup, Inc. (NYSE/C) make cuts to their domestic workforces. Companies like American Express Company (NYSE/AXP) are following in their footsteps.

Amex, as it is better known, is planning to cut 8.5% of jobs, or 5,400 jobs, from its workforce. (Source: Reuters, January 10, 2013.)

Sadly, it's not only the private sector witnessing job cuts and poor jobs market conditions; local governments are doing the same. In December, 11,000 jobs from public schools were slashed in the U.S.—this marked the fourth straight month of local government cutting jobs. (Source: Reuters, January 4, 2013.)

Longer term, since August of 2008, local governments in the U.S. economy have cut about 300,000 teaching and other school jobs. The Safest Way To Leverage The Coming Gold Mania

Could the U.S. jobs market rebound be nothing but a hoax? If you take out all those low-paying jobs being created, the jobs market situation is indeed frightening. You can't have a real economic recovery when job creation is concentrated in low paying jobs like retail and service industry jobs. U.S. consumer spending accounts for 70% of U.S. gross domestic product (GDP). At the rate we are going, low-paying jobs will soon account for 70% of all U.S. jobs!

The longer the jobs market stays shaky, the longer it will take the U.S. economy to see economic growth. If people don't have well-paying jobs, or they are earning less than they did before, they will spend less, as savings can only last for so long. Hence, you can see why I'm so suspicious about the so-called economy recovery more and more people are talking about—something I simply don't believe exists.

Where the Market Stands; Where it's Headed:

The higher the stock market moves in the next couple of weeks, the harder it will fall. I don't believe corporate earnings in 2013 will justify rising stock prices. This is why I see 2013 as a turning point for the stock market rally that started in March of 2009.

What He Said:

"As a reader, you're aware I'm not a Greenspan fan. In the years that lie ahead, I believe we (and our children) may pay dearly for the debt bubble Greenspan created during his tenure as head of the U.S. Federal Reserve." Michael Lombardi in Profit Confidential, March 20, 2006. Michael started talking about and predicting the financial catastrophe we began experiencing in 2008 long before anyone else.

Gold's bullish fundamentals reasserting themselves

Posted: 23 Jan 2013 08:12 AM PST

On 21 January, in order for the Indian government to curb the rising current account deficit, the import duty on gold and platinum was raised from 4% to 6%. Gold is the second largest import after crude oil in India. The gold imports are expected to fall by 20 to 25 percent this year.

50 Day Moving Average Stymies Gold

Posted: 23 Jan 2013 07:58 AM PST

Gold seems to have run into extremely HEAVY selling pressure at the 50 day moving average, which incidentally, just so happens to be coming in just below the $1700 level. It appears a concerted effort is being made to prevent gold from acquiring a "17" HANDLE, which is what the momentum based buyers are waiting for.

If you look at the chart closely, you can see the defensive fortification being erected by the bears. So far the market refuses to break down but it is stalling out a bit here and will need to quickly push past $1700 soon or we will see some short-term oriented day trader types start looking for the exits.

Notice that I am including the RSI indicator merely to show that it too is stuck below the 60 level, indicating the continuation of a consolidative (sideways) type of trading pattern in the metal. Until we get a clean break of 60 on this indicator, and preferably a run past 65, the pattern is sideways within a defined range of $1695 - $1700 on the top and $1665 or so on the bottom.

Saudi Arabia may shift focus to Gold soon

Posted: 23 Jan 2013 07:28 AM PST

Saudi Arabia and Sudan had earlier planned to produce within three years gold, silver and copper in large quantities from the bottom of the Red Sea, trying to execute a project in planning for almost four decades.

The Doc & T. Ferguson: Gold Bank Run Coming?

Posted: 23 Jan 2013 07:27 AM PST

The Doc and Turd Ferguson from TFMetalsReport sat down with AltInvestors last night for another round table interview focusing on the implications of the Bundesbank's recent gold repatriation request.  Doc and TF discussed the beginnings of a gold bank run and how other nations such as the Netherlands could step in line in front of [...]
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What does HSBC know about silver?

Posted: 23 Jan 2013 07:14 AM PST

Silver has now rallied for seven days because of the flood of inflows into silver backed ETFs and investment demand for coins and bars internationally. Analysts polled by Reuters expect silver to rise in 2013.

Silver Bars Being Secured By HSBC – Buy $876 Million Worth From Poland

Posted: 23 Jan 2013 07:10 AM PST

gold.ie

War on terror forever

Posted: 23 Jan 2013 07:00 AM PST

The Global War on Terror is the gift that keeps on giving for the French-Anglo-American industrial-military-security-contractor-media complex. Follow the line from cozy NATO ties with Salafi-jihadi "freedom fighters" in Libya west to the gold and uranium, and the shift in … Continue reading →

Ghana may repatriate Gold reserves from US, Europe

Posted: 23 Jan 2013 05:34 AM PST

Analysts said Ghana's stable and established democratic system is good enough to protect it's gold reserves within it's soil.

Did Mervyn King unilaterally change the BoE’s 2% inflation target last night in a speech announcing more money printing?

Posted: 23 Jan 2013 05:12 AM PST

Mervyn "i-can't-hit-a-legally-required-mandate-in-three-years" King gave a speech in Belfast last night where he hinted strongly that more debt monetisation to keep the UK government solvent, AKA...

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China Gold International Gold output hits 138,000 oz in 2012

Posted: 23 Jan 2013 04:52 AM PST

China Gold International, the Canada based Toronto and Hong Kong listed firm said the production was much higher than the set target of 130,000 to 135,000 ounces.

Gold needs to break $1700 for momentum

Posted: 23 Jan 2013 04:37 AM PST

The BoJ also announced an open-ended program of buying JPY13 trillion ($146 billion) of mainly short-term government debt a month starting in January 2014, when its current quantitative easing program is due to end, as part of efforts to raise inflation to the 2% target.

Royal Canadian Mint launches $20 Ice Hockey Silver coin

Posted: 23 Jan 2013 04:11 AM PST

The Mint has already started accepting pre-orders for the latest coin priced at the legal tender face value of $20.

Video Got Gold Report from January 21 Courtesy Release

Posted: 23 Jan 2013 04:01 AM PST

HOUSTON --  On Monday, January 21, we shared a new video Got Gold Report update with our valued paying Subscribers in the GGR Video section of the Subscriber Pages. 

Today, after a short delay and as a courtesy to our entire readership, we have added that video update – in its entirety – to our YouTube hub for the general public.  We hope you find it worthy of your time.  (More…)


This report covers recent, important developments in the gold and silver market, and updates Subscribers on our gold and silver trades with technical and large futures trader positioning considerations. 

We also take a look at several of our Subscriber Charts for gold and silver. 

  

Data for the report was released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) (the commitments of traders report) (COT), on Friday, January 18, and contained the positioning of the largest traders of gold and silver futures as of the close on Tuesday, January 15.  

This report delves into the Legacy COT reports for gold and silver futures, which we have tracked, studied and charted for many years, to gain insight and intelligence about the positioning of the natural hedgers, who use the COMEX and futures to limit their price risk. 

We believe the COT is a valuable tool for those willing to commit enough time and study to gain a deep understanding of the personality of the data and the markets.  Doing so consistently affects and aides our own decision making and trading stop placement for our short term futures trading. 

Importantly, the information in this video is regarding our short term trading only.  It has no relation to our holdings of physical metal, which are currently not for sale.    

Link to view on YouTube
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SVK07FcmV8U 

Turkey produces 29.5 tons of Gold last year

Posted: 23 Jan 2013 03:55 AM PST

However, Turkey's gold imports for the year 2012 totaled 120.8 tons, while this figure stood at only 79.7 tons in 2011.

Palladium price gains forecast

Posted: 23 Jan 2013 03:45 AM PST

Another constructive day for the precious metals bulls yesterday, with gold nudging above $1,690 and silver trading at $32 and change. Platinum is mirroring gold, albeit with slightly less volatility ...
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