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Wednesday, January 2, 2013

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Harmony delays Kusasalethu restart

Posted: 02 Jan 2013 05:38 PM PST

The South African gold miner said on Wednesday it has delayed the post-holiday restart of its Kusasalethu mine following protests late last year.

Gold prices start year touching two week high

Posted: 02 Jan 2013 12:32 PM PST

Gold and silver gain along with stocks, as US fiscal cliff deal seen as "chaotic and unsatisfactory"

2012 Mineweb Gold price competition – results

Posted: 02 Jan 2013 12:30 PM PST

Congratulations to the winners in our annual Gold Price Competition in a year which has proved to be extremely difficult for forecasters – professional and amateur alike. Enter now for our 2013 competition.

Gold's best gains are probably behind us - Walayat

Posted: 02 Jan 2013 12:27 PM PST

Gold is now in a mature bull market says Nadeem Walayat and it is likely that the best gold investors can achieve from here is gains of about 10% per annum.

Gold and Silver gain along with stocks

Posted: 02 Jan 2013 10:58 AM PST

Gold in Euros and Sterling by contrast were little changed on the day by late morning in London, recovering losses following a slight dip during Asian trading.

Hyperinflation 101

Posted: 02 Jan 2013 10:20 AM PST

Gold is not backed by anything? Really?

I thought that I'd start the year off with a bit of comedy from 2011.  The above link if you remember was a reporter explaining why Gold was down some $100 for the day back in Nov. of that year.  She explained that Gold was being sold out of "fear", fear that Gold was… "not backed by anything" whereas U.S. Treasuries had the backing of the full faith and credit of the U.S. government!  Please keep in mind that at the time, the U.S. had just recently increased its "unlimited" debt limit and had been downgraded 1 notch from the credit ratings services.  I thought that in light of the recent fiscal cliff circus and upcoming lifting of the debt ceiling, this clip might help put in perspective just how perverse our financial lives are.

"Hyperinflation."  This is a word bandied about by many writers.  It rolls off of the tongues of many who own precious metals yet is so misunderstood that I thought a revisit is in order.  Classic hyperinflation is when a government "prints" an excessive amount of currency at a rate far above growth rates and thus destroys the current value.  I don't know whether the "print rate" of money supply needs to be 25%, 50% or 100% or more to qualify as a hyperinflation.  Many today think that because "velocity" is currently very low and other variables such as economic growth is slow (negative), unemployment is stubbornly high and interest rates nonexistent that hyperinflation cannot take hold.  Completely untrue as I will explain later.

The Keynesian world in which we live has rewritten history and brainwashed the masses into believing that hyperinflation must be accompanied by an economy that strongly "demands" goods.  In essence, an economy that is growing wildly and simply gets out of control with the aid of a central bank that creates too much money.  This is fallacy.  Was the economy in Weimar Germany too strong?  Or the USSR in 1989? or Argentina in 2001?  Or Zimbabwe back in 2009?  No, they were all economic and financial basket cases in their own ways.  One condition that they all had was that their "monetary reserves" (whether Gold or foreign currency) were lacking and they basically "ran out of money" to pay for trade with.  This in turn made some everyday goods scarce and the locals then began to hoard which made various goods even more scarce which set the "cycle" of hoarding goods and getting rid of currency in motion.

The very best way to describe this is to say that CONFIDENCE in the money collapsed…  In reality, THIS is what hyperinflation is all about.  Yes, you do need various conditions present and one of them is certainly a goodly supply of the currency but a fiat currency can "hyperinflate" by a simple and broad loss of confidence.  Look at it this way, if the populous for whatever reason loses confidence in a currency, they will "sell" it, spend it, trade it or whatever to GET RID of it.  The effects of hyperinflation occur when confidence is lost.  When an economy is "strong," confidence is high and hyperinflation cannot occur, a weak economy is a prerequisite for a true hyperinflation.  "Printing" on its own will lower the currency value yes, but it is not enough on its own to hyperinflate.  You must have confidence destroyed as one mandatory condition to have a hyperinflation.

Confidence can be lost for many possible reasons.  The obvious being "too much" is perceived to have been printed.  How much is "too much?"  There is no answer to this other than enough for confidence in the currency to break.  Confidence can be lost if the main industry of a country gets leapfrogged by technology and that country remains rigid and continues to make buggy whips.  The point?  CONFIDENCE is what makes "value" in a fiat regime and lack of confidence is what breaks value.  "Broken confidence" in the value of the currency is another name for hyperinflation, it "looks" like everything is "going up" when the fact is that the currency is depreciating.

Don't get me wrong, there are many conditions that will go hand in hand with broken confidence (hyperinflation).  Higher interest rates, a dysfunctional economy, higher prices (lower currency value) etc. but the important thing to remember is that NO ONE wants to be left holding the "hot potato" and EVERYONE tries to get rid of it as fast as they can.  Some (think the Chinese) will see it coming and "contract" to purchase goods and assets with future payments of the hyperinflating currency.  Though it seems like "all of a sudden" a currency hyperinflates, it is a process that occurs, it is a weakening of confidence that builds… until… it breaks and presto, EVERYONE wants OUT!

You can argue and say that this explanation is too simple and not "scholarly" enough but in the streets, in the real world, it really is just this simple.  The loss of confidence in a fiat currency and hyperinflation of that currency are for all intents and purposes one and the same.  Which leads me to briefly point out that "Confidence" is exactly what the U.S. has been trying to protect all along.  ALL markets today are rigged (you can argue this with me if you'd like but I will not even waste my time since it is more than obvious).  ALL markets absolutely MUST at this late date, "show" that all is well.  NOTHING can act or be seen as an outlier because then questions will arise and we can't have that because questions require answers… and in a fiat world there are no and can be no real, logical and mathematically sound answers.

This has gotten quite long, I will continue tomorrow and explain why I believe that a prolonged hyperinflation of the U.S. Dollar and the rest of the world's fiat currencies cannot occur …to be continued.

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Whisper Number Impact: Earnings Preview For Family Dollar Stores

Posted: 02 Jan 2013 10:19 AM PST

By WhisperNumber:

Expected earnings report and the whisper number impact for Thursday, January 3rd:

Family Dollar Stores (FDO): The whisper number is $0.74, one cent behind the analysts' estimate. FDO has a 47% positive surprise history (having topped the whisper in 18 of the 38 earnings reports for which we have data). The average price movement (starting at next market open) within ten trading days of all earnings reports is +1.0%. The strongest price movement of +5.5% comes within thirty trading days when the company reports earnings that beat the whisper number, and +0.7% within ten trading days when the company reports earnings that miss the whisper number (positive reactor).

Last quarter the company reported earnings three cents short of the whisper number. Following that report the stock realized a 4.4% loss in fifteen trading days. Enter your expectation and view more earnings information here.

Knowing how likely a stock's


Complete Story »

Sandy Hook: Cop in CT on the Contradictions, Inconsistencies & Gun Grab

Posted: 02 Jan 2013 10:05 AM PST

Our friend Sean from SGTReport.com is back with Mark S. Mann. He's a cop on the ground in Connecticut and he has a LOT of QUESTIONS about the contradictions and inconsistencies of the official story of the Sandy Hook Elementary school massacre – and resulting gun grab. Full interview below: Silver Bullet Silver Shield Slave [...]

Final Numbers for 2012

Posted: 02 Jan 2013 09:45 AM PST

READ THE FULL NEWSLETTER

Here are the final closing prices for 2012 on Kitco:

Here are New Year's Day prices in the cash markets:

Gold and silver finished on a high note for the year.  If the pattern in January in 2013 follows what transpired in January 2012, gold and silver should do very well indeed.

Fiat currency without a gold relationship, 2013 forward.

It was brought to my attention today that there is still a great deal of confusion over the cause of hyperinflation and its timing.  I have mentioned this several times, and it is important enough to mention it again.

Inflation is a monetary event, not an economic event.  Jim Sinclair puts it this way: currency induced cost-push inflation.  Prices will rise as holders of the US Dollar lose faith in the currency and dump it for anything tangible.  All that supports the dollar these days is "confidence."  Once the confidence disappears, and at the rate the Fed is creating new money out of thin air it will happen sooner than most of you think.

The crash of the dollar to and below 70.0 on the USDX will not be a slow and drawn-out event and the fall will not be smooth and linear.  The only things holding up the dollar now are the reckless policies of the other currencies; the yen, yuan, and the euro.  All of them, along with the dollar, are debasing at an accelerating rate.  We have called this "competitive devaluation," for years and that is what is still going on now, without regard to the consequences.  The consequences will be hyperinflation.  Bill Holter thinks so, Gerald Celente thinks so and John Williams thinks so.  If you bet against these gentlemen, and you are wrong, you lose virtually everything.  If you go along with their views, even if they are wrong, and we sure hope that they will be, you will prosper as a major participant of the ongoing bull market in gold and silver.  You win either way.

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The Fiscal Pop-N-Drop for Equities – Look Out

Posted: 02 Jan 2013 09:31 AM PST

Today's gap higher in stocks has many investors feeling really good about but will this rally last?

My to the point answer is "Yes" but there will be some bumps and navigating positions along the way.

Looking at the charts below you will notice how stocks are trading up over 4% in two trading sessions and several indicators and technical resistance levels are now being tested. Naturally when several resistance levels across multiple time frames, cycles and indicators we must be open to the idea that stocks could pause or pullback for a few days before continuing higher.

Here is a quick snapshot of charts I follow closely to help determine short term overbought and oversold market conditions.

Momentum Extremes:

This chart helps me know when stocks are overbought or oversold. This trend can be follows using the 30 or 60 minute charts helping you spot short term tops and bottoms.

BroadMarketMomentum1

Stocks Trading Above 20 Day Moving Average:

This chart helps me time swing trades which last for 1-3 weeks in length and I use the daily chart to spot these reversals and trends.

SwingTradeOverbought2

Daily SP500 Index Chart:

This chart shows the big gap in price, test of upper bollingerband, momentum and swing trading cycles topping and 12 buyers to ever one seller on the NYSE which tells me everyone is running to buy everything they can today and that is a contrarian signal.

IndexChart3

Trading Conclusion:

This strong bounce which started on Monday from a very oversold market condition does look as though it has some power behind it. And over the next 1-3 days we could see prices grind higher until this momentum stalls out. Once that happens we should see most of the gap filled. This will provide us with a lower entry price and reduce our downside risk for index, sector and commodity ETFs.

If you are a stock trader then be sure to checkout my partners stock trading website www.ActiveTradingPartners.com where his last two trades Dec 31 pocketed 12.3% with gold stocks ETF NUGT, and took more profits with PRLB Jan 2nd for a 9.2% gain.

This type of bounce and momentum can lead to a running correction which makes it impossible for traders to by on a dip. A running correction is when prices slow chop higher in a narrow range for some time then explode higher continuing its rally. This is when you just need to jump in trades and chase prices higher but we will not do that until I see signs of a running correction.

Today many of the major market moving stocks are testing resistance which means if they start to get sold the broad market will pullback with them.

Follow All My Trades for 2013 – Start Today: http://www.thegoldandoilguy.com

Chris Vermeulen

Commodity Chart Of The Day: Silver

Posted: 02 Jan 2013 09:24 AM PST

By Matthew Bradbard:

Commodity Chart Of The Day

Daily Silver

(click image to enlarge)

After establishing a base around $30/ounce just above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, silver has started to appreciate. As of this post, prices are higher by 3% and trading back above the 200 day MA -- identified by the light blue line -- at $30.85/ounce. Prices have retaken their 50% Fib level and should be on their way to their 100 day MA -- identified by the red line -- approximately $1.50 above current levels.

I have advised clients to add length and view $30 as solid support in March futures. I do not expect the pace higher to match the pace on the way down, but in the weeks and months ahead, I do expect higher ground. My suggestion for metals speculators is buying dips in either gold or silver, anticipating prices to get back to levels seen


Complete Story »

Discovery Communications: A Natural Investment

Posted: 02 Jan 2013 09:23 AM PST

By Philip Saglimbeni:

Discovery Communications Inc. (DISCA) is a non-fiction media and entertainment company responsible for television networks like Discovery Channel, The Learning Channel, Animal Planet, Science Channel, Military Channel and Investigation Discovery. In total, the Maryland-based Discovery Communications owns and operates nine networks in the United States and its content is distributed across the world. The company's corporate website boasts over 1.7 billion cumulative subscribers to its content which is broadcast in 45 different languages and available in 209 countries and territories.

The main focus of Discovery's programming is on science, the natural world and human beings' interactions with both. Their impressive television lineup includes hit shows like Deadliest Catch, Gold Rush, Dirty Jobs, Mythbusters, American Chopper and a myriad of popular survival shows like Survivorman, Dual Survivor and the now defunct Man Vs. Wild. In conjunction with the British Broadcasting Company Ltd, Discovery is also responsible for critically acclaimed documentary


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Largest Bullion Traders Futures Positions do not Match Silver Manipulation Narrative

Posted: 02 Jan 2013 09:20 AM PST

HOUSTON – As we have long suspected, the class action lawsuit against JP Morgan Chase alleging silver manipulation was dismissed by a New York judge (Robert P. Patterson, Jr.).  The only surprise to us was that it lasted as long as it did. 

Shortly after the lawsuit was filed, after reading it, we opined to close friends and colleagues that we sure wouldn't want to be going into court with such a weak case.  A lawsuit which is based mostly on hearsay and public comments, rather than specific, spelled out harm, mischief or damages, is usually going nowhere. 

At best it was an opportunistic shot to initiate a fishing expedition. The judge apparently saw it that way. 

At worst the lawsuit was a manifestation of a market myth popularized by professional high profile muckrakers like Max Kaiser, et al.  A mean canard with an appealing, Oliver Stone style plot meant to draw in market neophytes and play on their conspiracy fears.  A myth perpetuated by people who have a vested interest in the Big Bad Bank Silver Manipulation storyline.


More...

 

What is particularly obvious to any thinking observer, which will undoubtedly escape the silver conspiracy salesmen's gaze, is that for the long period of time the lawsuit alleging silver manipulation was pending, there was apparently no material or compelling evidence which surfaced to support the plaintiffs case. 

No real whistleblower came forward to offer concrete proof of actual manipulative behavior by the defendant (no material factual allegations).  No disgruntled former trader or manager apparently came forward to align themselves with the plaintiffs or furnish the plaintiff with something compelling, some "red meat" the opportunistic, profit-seeking lawyers could amend their pleading with.

No smoking gun could be found or conjured, which, given the size of the defendant, must have come as a surprise to the organizers and lawyers who bought into the silver manipulation screenplay. 

That apparent fact is the dog not barking in this instance.  We have to believe that if ever there was an opportunity for a former bank operative to come forward to corroborate the supposed manipulation of the silver market by bullion banks, it would have been while there was a suit pending. 

In the absence of compelling evidence there is merely a failed lawsuit and a waste of the court's time and the lawyer's money.  

Largest Bullion Traders Futures Positions do not Match Silver Manipulation Narrative

Now, another interesting fact to consider.    

In a recent update to our Subscribers we took a look at the pure short positions reported in the COMEX futures markets by traders classed by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as "Producers, Merchants, Processors and Users" which we shorten to the "PMs."

The PMs are the category of traders analysts believe include a majority of the positioning of bullion banks.  It also includes large metals dealers, refiners, producers and large manufacturers that have a real need to lay off silver price risk using futures.  Many of those entities trade for their own book in both the COMEX and OTC markets, but no small number allow the bullion banks to manage their hedging (and metal)  for them and end up trading through the banks owing to their trading efficiency in that market. 

That is partly why the bullion banks end up with a large futures position.

To be sure bullion banks also trade futures for their own account.  But they warehouse and manage a very large amount of physical metal for themselves and for other clients in very large, soccer field sized "vaults" located in and around London and in other European and Asian money centers. 

Perhaps the most visible evidence of the large metal stockpiles is the commitment by JP Morgan Chase to BlackRock's iShares Silver Trust (SLV) to provide up to about half a billion ounces of silver metal as primary custodian for the trust as needed. (SLV currently has its nametag on about 333 million ounces of those stored, LBMA approved bars of silver metal.)

Getting back to our note to Subscribers on the short positions held by the PMs, below is a graph of just the short positions held by all traders classed by the CFTC as Producers/Merchants…

20121231-PMshorts
(Source CFTC for COT data, Cash Market for silver prices.)


Below is a short excerpt of our commentary to Subscribers to go with it.  After mentioning that the chart of the Big Hedger short positions "does not fit the narrative" of some analysts who give an impression that the PMs and bullion banks are "massively selling" paper shorts in silver futures, we said:

"Truth is that the hedgers have been within a pretty tight range in total shorts for quite a while. (Between roughly 40,000 and 70,000 contracts short since about 2008.) Any objective review of the PM short position must conclude that the hedgers have not been overly reactive to the wide ranging price of silver metal. Instead, their pure short positions have been much more like an oscillator since 2008. (Moving higher with higher prices and lower with lower prices as one might expect from people hedging price risk.)

There is a good reason for that. It is because the Big Hedgers really are primarily hedging price risk in the futures market. The bullion banks are, of course, the largest players on the short side (in futures), but the majority of their trades are for clients who let the banks manage their hedging for them. Clients such as very large bullion dealers, large holders of physical silver metal, refiners, producers and all the rest of the silver bullion Trade. … The above chart has not fit the "Big Bad Bullion Bank" narrative since at least 2008…"

Again, looking at the chart objectively, we cannot help but notice that in the vast majority of instances as the price of silver rose, so did the amount of hedging and vice versa.  That is consistent with hedging, is it not?  If the Big Sellers were using shorts to hammer the price of silver wouldn't we expect to see the opposite – at least at the beginning of the down moves?

Instead what the clear record has shown is that as prices rise the people involved in the silver trade are more motivated to hedge (to put on new shorts, resulting in higher net short positions for the hedgers).  As prices fall the hedgers are less motivated to put on hedges – just as one might expect to see on a bourse designed for hedging price risk in a global market.  

To state it simply, as prices go higher, hedgers want to lock in more of the higher prices. As prices fall their fear of lower prices ebbs. 

Perhaps even more interesting is that as silver more than doubled from August of 2010 to April of 2011 the PM short positions did not move outside the 40,000 to 70,000 contract range either way.  If the PMs were attempting to push the market one way or another, there is little in the way of short contract evidence to support such a notion. To the contrary. 

To see a class of traders with much more variability in their positioning we need only look to the traders the CFTC classes as Swap Dealers (SDs).  Below is the chart for Swap Dealer short positions for the same period for comparison. 

20121231-SDshorts


We would argue than the most recent pullback in silver prices was preceded by a much larger percentage increase in short positions by the (Goldman led?) Swap Dealers than the Producer Merchants.  The graph suggests as much.  Notice also right near the end of the graph that as silver began its pullback the Swap Dealers actually increased their hedges.  (A nudge?)

***

Enough about that for now.  It is not as if there are no games being played in the futures markets, but that is an issue for a another time.


Make no mistake, however, the silver futures market in New York is secondary and inferior in both size and importance to the physical and forwards markets cleared overseas.  The COMEX is where people go to hedge the price risk of their physical metal or their silver derivatives.  Although the COMEX is physical backed, and some metal is delivered and warehoused there, it is not the primary source the world turns to trade and clear large amounts of physical metal. 

The reported positioning of the largest, best informed and presumably the best informed traders of silver futures - (PMs) the positioning of people and firms actually involved in the metal Trade of producing, warehousing, manufacturing and delivery of silver metal -  just does not follow the bank manipulation through futures script.  ... It is also pretty boring to look at.  

***


We will end this brief with our concluding comments to Subscribers.  We said:

"Finally, please do not confuse our comments above with the gold market, where it is clear to us that governments sometimes have interfered in the gold metal market in a bid to maintain confidence in their under-backed fiat currencies.  (Governments no longer have access to large amounts of physical silver and have not had since China quit dishoarding silver in the middle of the last decade.)  

Having said that it is also clear to us that the various governments actually want (or do not mind) a higher price of gold as that weakens fiat currencies, thus rendering the nominal debt amounts easier to repay over time.  Gold is a quiet measure of actual (monetary)  inflation for now.  For evidence just compare the total U.S. national debt chart to a long term chart of gold to see a high correlation. 

They just don't want that higher price to occur in a disorderly or frightening manner. "

That is all for now; Carry on.   

Gold rises for the 12th consecutive year

Posted: 02 Jan 2013 09:00 AM PST

For the twelfth year in a row, the gold price in terms of US dollars rose in 2012. Gold climbed 7.0%, so an arithmetic average of its annual rate of appreciation for the last 12 years when ...

China's Silver transition to continue

Posted: 02 Jan 2013 08:36 AM PST

China, world's top gold producer is also increasing its silver reserves through a policy of decreasing its domestic silver exports and increasing its foreign silver imports.

Ned Naylor-Leyland: Silver Manipulation Story Will Go Mainstream in 2013, Price Will Break Free From Cartel Shackles!

Posted: 02 Jan 2013 08:30 AM PST

Our friend and Cheviot Asset Management's Ned Naylor-Leyland joined Max Keiser in studio to discuss the cartel silver manipulation and whether Leyland sees an end to the manipulation in 2013. Naylor-Leyland stated that: I will make a bold prediction, I think that contrary to all the evidence, I think they silver manipulation story will break [...]

Gold’s outlook in 2013 after rising in all fiat currencies in 2012

Posted: 02 Jan 2013 08:28 AM PST

Gold rose 7% in US dollars and was 4.9% higher in euro terms and 2.2% higher in sterling terms or to put it more correctly the major fiat currencies fell these amounts in 2012 against immutable gold.

This is why Hugh Hendry doesn't like Gold miners very much…

Posted: 02 Jan 2013 08:15 AM PST

Egypt halts Centamin gold exports In sum, Hendry in a recent interview said he likes Gold but not the miners and he alluded to what could happen if prices get high enough: countries just keep it. This seems to be … Continue reading

Surging prices cut into solar's silver usage

Posted: 02 Jan 2013 07:55 AM PST

Demand has dropped even as solar panel sales increased about 9 percent but long-term prospects for solar power and photovoltaic silver demand remain bright

CA Attorney: Silver Manipulation Suit Dismissed Because Corrupt CFTC Has Left Investigation Open

Posted: 02 Jan 2013 07:35 AM PST

A California attorney has dissected the recent ruling by 90 year old judge Robert P. Patterson Jr. dismissing the class-action lawsuit alleging manipulation of the silver market. He concludes that the entire purpose of the delay in the CFTC's nearly 5 year investigation of silver manipulation is so that the courts can rule that the [...]

Adios Fiscal Cliff; hello March Madness

Posted: 02 Jan 2013 07:30 AM PST

Happy New Year! 2012 saw yet another year of gains for gold - the twelfth in a row. Silver also recorded gains across all major currencies, in contrast to 2011, when it appreciated against just ...

Gold set to shine even more brightly in 2013

Posted: 02 Jan 2013 07:21 AM PST

Gold is also likely to be classified a top-tier bank asset, meaning commercial banks would be able to lend against 100% of their gold holdings rather than 50%.

Gold and silver gain along with stocks, but budget fight still looms

Posted: 02 Jan 2013 07:18 AM PST

Spot market gold prices started the year by touching a two-week high above $1,680 per ounce Wednesday morning, after news of a deal in Washington to avoid the so-called fiscal cliff.

Gold price outlook for 2013 debated

Posted: 02 Jan 2013 07:09 AM PST

Analysts are split on the outlook for gold price this year. Based on the World Gold Council's data, overall gold demand in the first three quarters in 2012 fell about 8% year-on-year.

Are My Ears Ringing Or Is That The Bell Tolling At Lloyds?

Posted: 02 Jan 2013 07:02 AM PST

If a system is so important that it can never be allowed to fail even when a virtual paper laden "gold" ship sinks, then why do we even need insurance?  If you can't experience a loss, then there's no insurable … Continue reading

Gold & Silver Explode in First Trading of 2013

Posted: 02 Jan 2013 06:30 AM PST

The Cliff is dead, risk is on! In an exact repeat of the end of 2011 and the first 2 weeks of 2012, gold and silver have absolutely exploded Wednesday in the first trading of 2013.   Silver is up over $1 to $31.55, a nearly 4% gain, and gold is up a more modest $15 [...]

“We may be left with no choice but to make it more expensive to import gold.”

Posted: 02 Jan 2013 06:24 AM PST

ZeroHedge: India FinMin: "Demand For Gold Must Be Moderated"

Gold price rises at the start of 2013 after finishing 2012 up 7% – now 12 consecutive years of positive gains

Posted: 02 Jan 2013 06:23 AM PST

So 2012 has come and gone and after all the frustrating action in the precious metals market the gold price ended the year up 7%. It now means that for 12 consecutive years the gold price has made...

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India to make Gold import more expensive

Posted: 02 Jan 2013 05:56 AM PST

World's largest gold consumer India reiterated it's commitment to cut gold imports by planning it to make expensive.

China launches Liaoning Gold,Silver coin

Posted: 02 Jan 2013 05:47 AM PST

The People's Bank of China said the two gold and two silver coins range in denominations from 10 to 2,000 yuan ($1.60 to $320), the latter with an actual market value of roughly $8,000

Silver Prices & Inflation – Bernanke Says Don’t Worry

Posted: 02 Jan 2013 03:55 AM PST

The aftermath of dramatic balance sheet expansion is bound to be a rebound in inflationary pressures, but Fed Chair Ben Bernanke said the central bank is not going to react to a short term increase in current inflation.

Ethiopia to boost Gold production this year

Posted: 02 Jan 2013 03:51 AM PST

The ministry said it was expecting to produce some 6,000 kilogramme of gold from both reserves within the next three years.

Diplomatic cables disclose more conspiring by Western governments to rig gold market

Posted: 02 Jan 2013 03:25 AM PST

Two U.S. State Department diplomatic cables from 1974 obtained by GATA researcher R.M. show Western central bank and treasury officials engaged in secret discussions -- that is, conspiring -- to control the price of gold and prevent any increase in its recognition as money.

The first cable was sent in May 1974 by then-Treasury Undersecretary Paul Volcker, who went on to become chairman of the Federal Reserve Board, from the U.S. embassy in Paris to the U.S. secretary of state in Washington for forwarding to another treasury undersecretary. The cable conveys a report by Netherlands Treasurer-General C.J. Oort about a meeting of European Community finance ministers in the Dutch city of Zeist on April 22 and 23.

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Lawrence Williams: Gold in 2013...climb, consolidate or collapse?

Posted: 02 Jan 2013 03:25 AM PST

Yes – its annual stick your neck out time for precious metals commentators as we try and foretell what will happen in the markets over the coming year – and precious metals price forecasting is an invidious business. 

Once you go on record with a prediction it's there for all to see – and, if you're unlucky, to refer back to should your crystal ball prove to be wildly incorrect.

So, firstly, what is this writer's track record in predicting the gold price? Well, in 2012 not great, although far less inaccurate than most.

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Surging prices cut into solar's silver usage

Posted: 02 Jan 2013 03:25 AM PST

Surging silver prices have cut demand from the solar power sector by a third this year from 2011's record highs, and the decline will continue next year as the industry that uses nearly 5 percent of global silver supplies scrambles to cut costs.

Silver paste is a key component in the photovoltaic panels that dot the roof tops of houses and buildings to trap the sun rays for electricity generation.

A nine percent increase in silver prices this year, on top of a tripling in prices since end-2008, has forced many panel manufacturers to reduce the amount of metal they use, even though sales of panels are rising.

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Gold Extends Longest Streak Since 1920 on Central-Bank Stimulus

Posted: 02 Jan 2013 03:25 AM PST

Gold rose, capping the longest annual gain since at least 1920, on renewed concern that central banks from Europe to China will take steps to spur economic growth and as U.S. leaders near a budget deal.

Gold futures for February delivery gained 1.2 percent to settle at $1,675.80 at 1:41 p.m. on the Comex in New York, while prices for immediate delivery jumped as much as 1.5 percent. Through Dec. 28, the metal had slumped for five straight weeks as the deadline for the so-called fiscal cliff of automatic tax increases and spending cuts due to take effect tomorrow loomed. President Obama said today at a White House event that an agreement was "within sight."

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Silver market rigging lawsuit against Morgan dismissed but may be revived

Posted: 02 Jan 2013 03:25 AM PST

A federal judge has dismissed the class-action silver market-rigging lawsuit against J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. that was brought a year ago in September, ruling that the complaint lacked the specifics and claims of bad intent necessary to be allowed to proceed to trial.

The dismissal was ordered a week ago by Judge Robert P. Patterson Jr. in U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York. The judge gave the plaintiffs 30 days to show cause why they should be allowed to file a substitute complaint.

This commentary comes from part of Chris Powell's preamble in a GATA release on this issue from Saturday.  It's definitely worth reading...and the link is here.

Washington Agreement is Another Gold Rig, Former Fed and Treasury Official Admits

Posted: 02 Jan 2013 03:25 AM PST

¤ Yesterday in Gold and Silver

I wasn't planning on having a column today...but Monday's price action, along with a list of excellent reading material, made me change my mind.

Of course volume was pretty light, but there was still notable structure in the gold price right from the open in the Far East on the last trading day in 2012.  The gold price rallied right up until 9:00 a.m. in London, before getting sold down into the noon local time London silver fix.

From there, it didn't do much until around noon in New York...and then away it went to the upside in rather impressive fashion.  Then shortly before 1:00 p.m. Eastern, either the buyer disappeared, or the vertical rally suddenly forced the appearance of the usual not-for-profit sellers.  But once that event occurred, the gold price chopped sideways into the close.

The low price tick [around $1,665 spot] occurred right at the New York open at 6:00 p.m. Eastern time on Sunday night...and the high tick [$1,681.50 spot] occurred around 12:50 p.m. on Monday afternoon in New York.

Gold closed the electronic trading session on December 31st at $1,675.20 spot...up $18.90 on the day.  Volume, which had been extremely light up until the price took off, blew out to around 96,000 contracts when all was said and done.

Silver also rallied at the New York open on Sunday night...but then got capped at the $30.20 price level right up until 9:00 a.m. in London.  Silver then suffered the same fate as gold...but the price drop into the noon London silver fix was even more pronounced...and I'm guessing the low price tick came in around the $29.80 mark.

From the low of the day, silver rallied until 10:00 a.m. in New York...there was no p.m. gold fix in London on Monday...and then got sold off until lunchtime, before it took off as well.  There's no doubt in my mind that JPMorgan et al showed up to slam this rally, as the price fight was obviously on starting around 12:45 p.m. Eastern.  I'll have more on this in 'The Wrap'.

Silver's high tick [$30.55 spot] came around 3:00 p.m. in the New York electronic market...and from there got sold down a bit into the 5:15 p.m close.

Silver finished the day, month...and the year...at $30.35 spot...up 32 cents from its Friday close.  And it's more than obvious that silver would have finished materially higher in price if "da boyz" hadn't shown up when they did.  But volume was very light...only around 18,500 contracts...so it didn't require a lot of effort to cap the price.  But what this action does confirm is that there are no legitimate short sellers in the market at this price level.

The action in both platinum and palladium was similar.

The dollar index action, although impressive looking on the chart, traded within a reasonably tight range on Monday.  The index closed at 79.67 on Friday, dropped down a bit at the Sunday night New York open..and then rallied up to around the 79.80 mark shortly before 1:00 p.m. in Hong Kong on their Monday afternoon...and basically stayed there for the rest of the day...except for the obvious 20 basis point price dip/rally between 10 a.m. and noon in New York.  The dollar index closed the year at 79.76...up only 9 basis points from Friday.

It should be obvious to just about anyone that there was no co-relation between the currencies and the precious metals on Monday...especially between noon and 1:00 p.m. Eastern when the bulk of the price action occurred.

The gold stocks popped over a percent at the open...and then traded sideways until about 12:30 p.m. in New York...basically ignoring the jump in the gold price.  But from there it was onwards and every upwards...following the action in the Dow...with the gold stocks hitting their zenith shortly after 3:00 p.m...and from there got sold off a hair into the close.  The HUI finished up an impressive 3.08% on the day.

The silver stocks did pretty well for themselves as well...as it was green arrows across the board.  Nick Laird's Intraday Silver Sentiment Index had already turned over into Jan 1st as I was writing this...so all I have is the usual Silver Sentiment Index...and it shows that the silver equities closed up a healthy 3.15%.

(Click on image to enlarge)

The CME's Daily Delivery Report for Monday showed that 58 gold and 1 lonely silver contract were posted for delivery on Thursday.  In gold, it was all JPMorgan and the Bank of Nova Scotia.  The link to the Issuers and Stoppers Report is here.

There were no reported changes in GLD...but it was an entirely different story over at SLV, as 1,257,683 troy ounces of silver were added on Monday.  According to my records...a bit more than 10.5 million ounces of silver have been deposited in the SLV ETF since December 3rd.  Both Ted Butler and myself will be looking forward to the next report from shortsqueeze.com [due around January 10th according to Ted] because we both feel that we'll see a substantial reduction in SLV's short position, which currently sits at 18.12 million ounces.

This huge increase in deposits at SLV has flown in the face of an almost four dollar price decline in silver between early December and December 21st...which was the day that 4.8 million ounces of silver was deposited in SLV.  So 6 million of the 10.5 million ounces of silver mentioned in the previous paragraph were deposited on just two days....the 21st and 31st of December.

The U.S. Mint had one final sales report on Monday, as they sold an additional 6,500 ounces of gold eagles.  Unless they report some additional December sales later today, the U.S. Mint sold 76,000 ounces of gold eagles...8,000 one-ounce 24K gold buffaloes...and 1,635,000 silver eagles, for the month that was.

The silver eagles sales for 2012 were cut off early, as the mint ran out.  Normal December sales would be in the three to four million range...and this certainly affected the silver/gold ratio which finished the month of December at just under 20 to 1.

For the entire year, the mint sold 753,000 ounces of gold eagles...132,000 one-ounce 24K gold buffaloes...and 33,742,500 silver eagles.  The silver/gold sales ratio for the year was a hair over 38 to 1...but would have finished a bit over 40 to 1 if December silver eagles sales had been normal.

Over at the Comex-approved depositories on Friday, they reported receiving 1,491,457 troy ounces of silver...and shipped 367,414 ounces of the stuff out the door.  The link to that activity is here.

Here's a chart courtesy of Washington state reader S.A. that he stole from somewhere.  As he said in his covering e-mail..."The bull market has a long way to go."  He would be right about that.

Here's the 20-Year Silver Chart that Nick Laird was kind enough to send our way at my request last evening.  It shows how ruler flat the silver price was for a period going back well over ten years on this chart.  It's been anything but since 2004...and especially since the beginning of the last quarter of 2008.

(Click on image to enlarge)

Only the drive-by shooting on May 1, 2011...and all the other price smashes since...have prevented silver prices from exploding to the outer edges of the know universe.  I doubt very much that JPMorgan et al will be able to keep this up for much longer.

As I mentioned at the top of this column, I have a fair amount of reading material saved up since Saturday...and it's all posted below.  I hope you can find the time to read the ones that interest you the most.

I'm guessing that what we saw on Monday was someone covering a short position for year-end book-squaring.
Gold Extends Longest Streak Since 1920. Another admission that Indian gold ETFs would loan their metal, suppressing prices. Bill Gross: Gold and Oil for 2013. Silver market rigging lawsuit against Morgan dismissed but may be revived.

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United States avoids calamity in "fiscal cliff" drama

The United States averted economic calamity on Tuesday when lawmakers approved a deal to prevent huge tax hikes and spending cuts that would have pushed the world's largest economy off a "fiscal cliff" and into recession.

The agreement hands a clear victory to President Barack Obama, who won re-election on a promise to address budget woes in part by raising taxes on the wealthiest Americans. His Republican antagonists were forced to vote against a core tenet of their anti-tax conservative faith.

The deal also resolves, for now, the question of whether Washington can overcome deep ideological differences to avoid harming an economy that is only now beginning to pick up steam after the deepest recession in 80 years.

Note to Obama:  We're still in a "deep recession"...and will be for a very long time.  This Reuters story appeared on their website around 2:00 a.m. Eastern time this morning...and I thank Casey Research's own Bud Conrad for our first story in today's column.  The link is here.

Putting America's Tax Hike In Perspective

This very brief Zero Hedge posting is in response to the above story...and it's the embedded graph makes it a must read.  I thank Marshall Angeles for sending it...and the link is here.

Payback time: Florida homeowners foreclosing on banks

Hundreds of homeowners and condo associations are foreclosing on banks that have failed to pay dues and other expenses on the properties they've repossessed.

When banks foreclose on a home they become responsible for paying fees to the homeowners association -- both any unpaid fees going back as far as 12 months and all expenses going forward.

In many cases, however, banks are failing to pay, leaving these associations short on cash, according to Miami-based attorney Ben Solomon.

But now, homeowners groups are putting liens on the properties until banks pay up and foreclosing on them if they don't.

An excellent idea...and I hope every condo association in the USA takes precisely the same action...starting today!  This CNN story was posted on their Internet site the day after Christmas and is well worth skimming...and I thank reader "h c" for sending it along.  The link is here.

Investors yank $150 billion from stocks for 3rd year

The U.S. stock market has been on a bull run since early 2009. At the same time, individual investors have been pulling billions of dollars out of stocks each year.

As the S&P 500  rallied about 13% during the first eleven months of 2012, individual investors yanked about $152 billion from the U.S. stock market, according to data from EPFR Global, a Boston-based firm that tracks fund flows for both mutual funds and exchange traded funds.

That marks the third year in a row that investors have withdrawn more than $150 billion from U.S. stock mutual funds and ETFs.

This short story, with a most excellent chart, was posted on the cnn.com Internet site last Thursday...and I thank Scott Pluschau for finding it for us.  The link is here.

Dr. Dave Janda interviews G. Edward Griffin

As you most likely know, I consider you under-educated unless you've read Ed Griffin's book "The Creature from Jekyll Island: A Second Look at the Federal Reserve".  The good doctor interviewed Ed on Sunday...and the audio interview runs about twenty-five minutes.  It's posted at the davejanda.com Internet site...and the link is here.  Because of the size of the mp3 file, it takes a while to load.

Venezuela's Inflation Rate Hit 19.9%

Venezuelan inflation reached 19.9 percent in 2012, the central bank said in a preliminary estimate on Saturday, beating its official target thanks to strict price controls that business leaders say are unsustainable in the long term.

The government of President Hugo Chavez has capped prices for a wide range of consumer goods, helping contain inflation that has traditionally been the highest in Latin America. The 2012 target had been between 22 and 25 percent.

But inflation is seen accelerating in 2013 because Venezuela is expected to devalue the BolĂ­var currency after heavy campaign spending this year that helped ensure Chavez's re-election.

This Reuters piece, filed from Caracas early Sunday morning, was posted on the businessinsider.com Internet site...and it's Scott Pluschau's second offering in today's column.  The link is here.

Former Icelandic bank executives jailed for fraud

Two former executives at an Icelandic bank which collapsed in the 2008 financial meltdown were sentenced to jail on Friday for fraud which led to a €53m loss, in the first major trial of Icelandic bankers linked to the crisis.

All three of the small North Atlantic island's top banks collapsed in quick succession in October 2008 due to big debts incurred during a rapid overseas expansion.

Glitnir was the first to fall after the collapse of Lehman Brothers caused international credit markets to freeze up.

A Reykjavik court sentenced Glitnir's former chief executive, Larus Welding, and former head of corporate finance, Gudmundur Hjaltason, each to nine months in jail, of which six months were suspended for two years.

This story from last Friday was posted on the Irish website independent.ie...and I thank Tariq Khan for bringing this article to our attention.  The link is here.

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