Gold World News Flash |
- Why is Germany repatriating their gold?
- Silver Update 1/18/13 Silver Glut
- The Return of Silver Eagle Rationing
- David Morgan – Silver & Other Investments
- Gold Demand: East vs. West
- This Chart Formation Is Setting Up An Explosive 2-Year Move In The Gold Miners…
- By the Numbers for the Week Ending January 18
- Adventures in Silver 90% bucket coin picking at my local coin shop
- MUST WATCH: The Frightening Truth About Germany's PHYSICAL Gold Move Pours Out on CNBC
- TF Metals Report interviews GATA secretary about Bundesbank's partial gold repatriation
- The Currency Wars: Now US Automakers Are Squealing
- Silver in terribly short supply, von Greyerz tells King World News
- A Practical Assessment of the U.S. Debt Problem Shows It to Be Absolutely Absurd
- Edward Conard: Unintended Consequences – YouTube
- The Gold Price Bottomed on January 4th Rising $26.60 this Week Buy Silver and Gold Period
- Pictet On The Sudden Depreciation Of The Swiss Franc
- Silver Update: CHINA GOLD DEMAND TO PUSH PRICE OVER $2,000 – YouTube
- Marc Faber 2013 Economic Forecast: Gold, Oil, Stocks, Bonds, Equities, Apple (APPL) Stock Price – YouTube
- Silver Momentum Builds as U.S. Mint Sells Out of January Eagles
- Peter Schiff Blog: A Default Means A Complete Collapse In The Bond Market
- Economic Straight Talk: U.S. Is Not Going to Become Energy Independent Because of Tight Oil – Period
- Kyle Bass: Japan is a debt time bomb, Kyle Bass Blog
- Doug Casey: "We Are Living In The Middle Of The Biggest Bubble In History."
- German Gold: 4 Lessons for Private Investors
- Greyerz - We Are Now Seeing Massive Shortages Of Silver
- CruciVIXion
- Gold Seeker Weekly Wrap-Up: Gold and Silver Gain About 1% and 5% on the Week
- Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts - RIP Adrian Douglas
- Ambrose Evans–Pritchard beats about the bush
- Fake Statistics, Freaky Silver
- Gold Mania Phase Approaching for Junior Miners
- Gold and Silver Disaggregated COT Report (DCOT) for January 18
- COT Gold, Silver and US Dollar Index Report - January 18, 2013
- Contrarian Gold Stocks
- Kyle Bass – Japan ‘Debt Time Bomb’ Ticking
Why is Germany repatriating their gold? Posted: 19 Jan 2013 12:00 AM PST The Real Asset Co |
Silver Update 1/18/13 Silver Glut Posted: 18 Jan 2013 11:26 PM PST from BrotherJohnF: |
The Return of Silver Eagle Rationing Posted: 18 Jan 2013 11:00 PM PST from Mint News Blog: Late yesterday, the United States Mint informed authorized purchasers that the 2013 American Silver Eagle bullion coins had temporarily sold out. This comes only ten days after the coins were initially made available for ordering and following a three week period of unavailability due to the early sell out of the 2012-dated coins. Sales of the 2013 Silver Eagle bullion coins will remain suspended until the Mint can build up an inventory of the coins. The Mint expects that sales will resume on or about the week of January 28, 2013 under the allocation process. The "allocation process" refers to a system of rationing the available silver bullion coins amongst authorized purchasers during times when demand exceeds the supply. |
David Morgan – Silver & Other Investments Posted: 18 Jan 2013 10:30 PM PST from VictoryIndependence: |
Posted: 18 Jan 2013 09:30 PM PST by Clif Droke, Financial Sense: Gold, as defined by the SPDR Gold Trust (GLD), has been a less than stellar performer of late. I've long maintained that the 150-day moving average is a psychologically significant benchmark for the gold ETF, both as a line of support and resistance. GLD's performance in recent weeks has only confirmed this observation. The 3-year daily chart for GLD shown below illustrates the progression of the price line in relation to the 150-day (30-week) MA. Note the refusal of GLD to slide below the 150-day MA during the bull market years of 2010-2011. Since the long-term trend line broke in December 2011, GLD has had great difficulty in maintaining its footing above this important trend line. As you can see, there have been two breakouts above the 150-day MA since last year with the first one ending in failure. The second and more recent attempt in late August 2012 looks stronger in that GLD spent nearly four months above it and is, as of this writing, slightly above the still-rising 150-day MA |
This Chart Formation Is Setting Up An Explosive 2-Year Move In The Gold Miners… Posted: 18 Jan 2013 08:40 PM PST by Tekoa Da Silva, Bull Market Thinking: Whenever I am confused by the action in the market, the first thing I do is pull up a very long-term chart so I can get a feel for what is really going on, and eliminate the distraction of the day to day wiggles. I think we are all wondering when the miners are going to join the party as it certainly appears that gold and silver both have formed major yearly cycle bottoms. What I saw was quite a surprise. The character of the mining sector has changed completely. For the first time in this bull market miners are forming a rounded base instead of the typical V-shaped bottom. A rounded bottom is a much more powerful basing structure than a V-shaped recovery. If you believe like I do that gold is going to between $3500 and $4000 over the next two years, then I would have to say there is no way it is going that high without taking the miners with it. |
By the Numbers for the Week Ending January 18 Posted: 18 Jan 2013 08:16 PM PST This week's closing table is just below.
Vultures, (Got Gold Report Subscribers) please note that updates to our linked technical charts, including our comments about the COT reports and the week's technical changes, should be completed by the usual time on Sunday (by 18:00 ET). To subscribe to Got Gold Report please click on the "Subscribe to GGR" button at top right. Join us today. |
Adventures in Silver 90% bucket coin picking at my local coin shop Posted: 18 Jan 2013 08:00 PM PST from silverfish VT: |
MUST WATCH: The Frightening Truth About Germany's PHYSICAL Gold Move Pours Out on CNBC Posted: 18 Jan 2013 07:31 PM PST by SGT, If the gravity of the recent move by the Bundesbank to demand a portion of its gold back from the NY Fed, and all of its gold back from the bank of France is lost on you, check this out. The horrifying reality of the worldwide central banking monetary sham is beginning to cut through, even on CNBC. Although mockingbird host Melissa Lee tries her best to diffuse the outpouring of truth in this 'Market Mystery' segment, she fails miserably. Lee kicks off this must-watch clip by asking, "Why is Germany moving gold out of the United States? Why don't they trust us any more?" CNBC's Guy Adami goes on to break it down in a way that surely must have left Mr. Geithner and the Bernank reaching for their red direct-line phones to CNBC censors.
At the conclusion of Adami's rant, Lee sheepishly asks, "Is there maybe not enough gold in the bank?" To which the response is, "Yeah, potentially." Lee responds, "You sound like a real conspiracy theorist." It's too late for that nonsense Ms. Lee. The cat has been outta the bag for quite some time, and even CNBC's brainwashed mainstream audience is beginning to see the truth now: The Western fiat banking system is mortally wounded, and this broken paradigm will soon come to an end. |
TF Metals Report interviews GATA secretary about Bundesbank's partial gold repatriation Posted: 18 Jan 2013 06:29 PM PST 5:25p PT Friday, January 18, 2013 Dear Friend of GATA and Gold: Turd Ferguson of the TF Metals Report today interviewed your secretary/treasurer for about 20 minutes, largely about the Deutsche Bundesbank's announcement that it will repatriate a small part of its foreign-vaulted gold over the next seven years, thereby raising suspicion that the gold is not clearly available on account of swaps, leases, and other impairments. Audio of the interview is posted at the TF Metals Report Internet site here: http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/podcast/4447/tfmr-podcast-38-chris-powell-... CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer ADVERTISEMENT Fred Goldstein and Tim Murphy open All Pro Gold All-Pro Gold, run by long-time GATA supporters Fred Goldstein and Tim Murphy, offers its services to GATA supporters and anyone else interested in precious metals. The company brokers a full line of precious metals and numismatic coins. It aims to inform prospective clients about the importance of the monetary metals as part of a diversified financial portfolio and to keep prospective clients current with market trends. All-Pro Gold has competitive pricing and ships promptly to clients so they may have physical possession. Learn more by e-mailing Fred@allprogold.com or Tim@allprogold.com or telephone 1-855-377-4653 or visit www.allprogold.com. Join GATA here: Vancouver Resource Investment Conference * * * Support GATA by purchasing DVDs of our London conference in August 2011 or our Dawson City conference in August 2006: http://www.goldrush21.com/order.html Or by purchasing a colorful GATA T-shirt: Or a colorful poster of GATA's full-page ad in The Wall Street Journal on January 31, 2009: http://gata.org/node/wallstreetjournal Help keep GATA going GATA is a civil rights and educational organization based in the United States and tax-exempt under the U.S. Internal Revenue Code. Its e-mail dispatches are free, and you can subscribe at: To contribute to GATA, please visit: ADVERTISEMENT Opinion Around the World Is Changing When Deutschebank calls gold "good money" and paper "bad money". ... http://www.gata.org/node/11765 When the president of the German central bank, the Bundesbank, pays tribute to gold as "a timeless classic". ... http://www.forbes.com/sites/ralphbenko/2012/09/24/signs-of-the-gold-stan... When a leading member of the policy committee of the People's Bank of China calls the gold standard "an excellent monetary system". ... http://www.forbes.com/sites/ralphbenko/2012/10/01/signs-of-the-gold-stan... When a CNN reporter writes in The China Post that the "gold commission" plank in the 2012 Republican platform will "reverberate around the world". ... http://www.thegoldstandardnow.org/key-blogs/1563-china-post-the-gop-gold... When the Subcommittee on Domestic Monetary Policy of the U.S. House of Representatives twice called on economist, historian, and gold standard advocate Lewis E. Lehrman to testify. ... World opinion is changing in favor of gold. How can you learn why and what it will mean to you? Read the newly updated and expanded edition of Lehrman's book, "The True Gold Standard." Financial journalist James Grant says of "The True Gold Standard": "If you have ever wondered how the world can get from here to there -- from the chaos of depreciating paper to a convertible currency worthy of our children and our grandchildren -- wonder no more. The answer, brilliantly expounded, is between these covers. America has long needed a modern Alexander Hamilton. In Lewis E. Lehrman she has finally found him." To buy a copy of "The True Gold Standard," please visit: http://www.thegoldstandardnow.com/publications/the-true-gold-standard |
The Currency Wars: Now US Automakers Are Squealing Posted: 18 Jan 2013 05:57 PM PST Wolf Richter www.testosteronepit.com www.amazon.com/author/wolfrichter Japan’s Liberal Democratic Party went all out late last year to re-grab the power it had held for 50 years before getting booted out in 2009. Its platform: print and borrow with utter abandon to create asset bubbles and inflation, and to weaken the yen. It even threatened to wrest control over the printing press away from the Bank of Japan. That verbiage has been phenomenally successful: the stock market is surging, and the yen is crashing from historic—under normal circumstances, inexplicable—highs. But now, US automakers are squealing. They want the government to fight back in the currency war. The American Automotive Policy Council (AAPC), a lobbying organization that represents only Ford, GM, and Chrysler, sent President Obama a letter, demanding retaliation against Japan’s NO EXIT strategy. Then it went public with it grievances. “Here we go again,” said Matt Blunt, AAPC president and former Republican governor of Missouri. “Japan’s Liberal Democratic party is back in power and determined to repeat the ‘beggar thy neighbor’ policies that distort trade by cheapening the value of the yen to promote economic growth in Japan at the expense of its trading partners.” He claimed that “these types of policies” had “inflicted tremendous harm” on manufacturing in the US. “We urge the Obama Administration to make it clear to Japan that such policies are unacceptable and will be met by reciprocal measures.” The AAPC has been lambasting Japan, and rightfully so, for having “the most closed auto market in the developed world,” protected by “non-tariff barriers” that keep US automotive products out. But now it accused Japan of manipulating its currency “to boost its own exports at the expense of other nations, especially the United States.” Alas, the biggest currency manipulator in the world is the Fed, not only with its verbiage but also with its endless and escalating waves of quantitative easing, to the point where it currently prints $85 billion a month to debase and demolish the dollar, or what is left of it, which isn’t much. It makes US wages more competitive with those in Mexico and China. It also makes imports more expensive for American consumers and exports cheaper for consumers elsewhere. Meanwhile, Japan’s infamous trade surplus has given way to a ballooning trade deficit (graph). The automakers were whining to President Obama, ironically, as another announcement was made and received with hoopla: GM would invest $1.5 billion in plants in North America in 2013. While no further details emerged, hopes were swirling that this manna would rain down on Michigan. Yet North America, in addition to Michigan, also includes among other places Canada and Mexico, and how much of this money will land in the US is uncertain. Embarrassingly, the $1.5 billion was just a fraction of GM’s planned investments of $8 billion for 2013, of which $6.5 billion will be sent to countries outside North America—not Europe where GM is bleeding to death, but Asia. That has been the paradigm in manufacturing for decades. US corporations have invested prodigiously in China and other countries where labor is cheap and have thus contributed to their enormous economic growth, while only crumbs have fallen on US soil. In this manner, much of the US auto component industry has moved offshore. Exhibit A: Delphi, formerly GM’s component division. GM spun it off in 1999. Two years later, Delphi axed 11,500 workers. In 2004, it got into hot water over its accounting practices. In 2005, it went bankrupt and closed 45 plants in the US, with much of the production moving to China. In 2009, it sold its chassis division to state-owned BeijingWest Industries, which now develops and manufactures brake and chassis components for US and European automakers. Exhibit B: Visteon, formerly Ford’s component division. Always the laggard, Ford spun it off in 2000. In 2009, it went bankrupt, shuttered all but one of its 33 plants in the US, let go 25,000 workers, and shifted its center of gravity to Shanghai. It now has 171 plants and facilities in other countries. Its headquarters building in Van Buren Township, Michigan, was sold last year, though its headquarters is still officially located there. Visteon is still “a US company at this point,” CEO Tim Leuliette said at the Automotive News World Congress on Wednesday. Yet globally, he added, only “about 4%, 5% of our employees are in the United States,” most of them supporting customers in North America. So, if the headquarters shifted to Asia, he said, it wouldn’t change much, jobs-wise. Bitter irony: American automakers, after having sent their investments and manufacturing overseas, are using a Republican ex-governor to pressure the Obama administration to stop the Japanese from defending themselves in the currency war that the Fed has been waging relentlessly for years. Meanwhile, Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher is waging his own war—against TBTF banks. “Repression” is what he calls “the injustice of being held hostage to large financial institutions,” whose investors, executives, counterparties, and customers “believe themselves to be exempt from the processes of bankruptcy and creative destruction.” These banks “capture the financial upside” of their bets but are bailed out when things go wrong, he says, “in violation of one of the basic tenets of market capitalism.” Read.... How Big Is ”BIG”? And for an easy, fun guy read, if you like cars and the rambunctious process of selling them, check out TESTOSTERONE PIT, the novel. |
Silver in terribly short supply, von Greyerz tells King World News Posted: 18 Jan 2013 05:47 PM PST 4:41p PT Friday, January 18, 2013 Dear Friend of GATA and Gold (and Silver): Swiss gold fund manager Egon von Greyerz today tells King World News that there is now a great shortgage of silver for investment purposes. "You can still find gold, but silver is simply not around, and we expect the situation to get much worse," von Greyerz says. "We are now to the point where we are going to begin to see a massive breakout in the price of silver." http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2013/1/18_Gr... CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer ADVERTISEMENT How to profit in the new year with silver -- Future Money Trends is offering a special 16-page silver report with our forecast for 2013 that includes profiles of nine companies and technical analysis of their stock performance. Six of the companies have market capitalizations of less than $800 million and one company has a market cap of only $30 million. The most exciting of these companies will begin production in a few weeks and has a market cap of just $150 million. Half of all proceeds from the sale of this report will be donated to the Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee to support its efforts exposing manipulation and fraud in the gold and silver markets. To learn about this report, please visit: http://www.futuremoneytrends.com/index.php?option=com_content&id=376&tmp... Join GATA here: Vancouver Resource Investment Conference * * * Support GATA by purchasing DVDs of our London conference in August 2011 or our Dawson City conference in August 2006: http://www.goldrush21.com/order.html Or by purchasing a colorful GATA T-shirt: Or a colorful poster of GATA's full-page ad in The Wall Street Journal on January 31, 2009: http://gata.org/node/wallstreetjournal Help keep GATA going GATA is a civil rights and educational organization based in the United States and tax-exempt under the U.S. Internal Revenue Code. Its e-mail dispatches are free, and you can subscribe at: To contribute to GATA, please visit: ADVERTISEMENT GoldMoney adds Singapore vaulting option In addition to its precious metals storage facilities in Hong Kong, Switzerland, Toronto, and the United Kingdom, now with GoldMoney you can store gold and silver in Singapore in a high-security vault operated by Brink's Singapore Pte Limited. To celebrate the launch of this storage option, GoldMoney is offering a discount on buy and exchange fees at this vault for any orders above US$10,000 (or the equivalent) until January 31, 2013. Tthe gold buy rate is 0.98%, while the silver rate is 1.99%. Metal exchanges into Brink's Singapore will also be discounted for this period and will be charged at 0.78% for gold and 1.75% for silver. Simply place your order online and the above rates apply automatically until January 31, 2013, 15.00 UK time. To find out more about the new vault, please visit: http://www.goldmoney.com/singapore?gmrefcode=gata GoldMoney customers can take delivery of any number of gold, silver, platinum, and palladium bars from any GoldMoney vault, as well as personally collect their bars stored in the Hong Kong, Switzerland, and U.K. vaults. It's easy to open an account, add funds, and liquidate your investment. For more information, visit: http://www.goldmoney.com/?gmrefcode=gata |
A Practical Assessment of the U.S. Debt Problem Shows It to Be Absolutely Absurd Posted: 18 Jan 2013 05:43 PM PST Register to "Follow the munKNEE" and automatically receive all articles posted The U.S. debt situation when broken down to one of family statistics really seems absurd. Yet it's true. It's a slow motion train wreck that can be seen coming miles away but which, like deer paralyzed in the headlights, everyone is unwilling to face up to and to take any meaningful corrective action – and it will be the downfall of them all. Words: 550 So says Simon Black (www.SovereignMan.com) in paraphrased excerpts from his latest post* entitled Ending up like the Joneses…
Black goes on to say in further edited excerpts: Based on 2012/2013 data here is the U.S. debt situation:
Now chop off eight zeros and imagine the same numbers for the Jones family:
Not to mention,
Further, the Jones family hasn't made any substantial changes to their lives…
Yet somehow they feel confident that their income levels will rise much faster than the debt. Friends and neighbors who have loaned them money are starting to get nervous. Papa Jones has put a plan together, however, to cut the family's annual shortfall… so that,
The extended family is also getting nervous… but Papa Jones tells them not to worry. They believe him because he is very charismatic and has a great jump shot. A few projections:
Conclusion When you look at it this way, it really seems absurd. Yet it's true… a slow motion train wreck that you can see coming miles away. This is why the principles of international diversification are so important– you live in one country, your money lives in another, your business lives in another, you have an escape hatch in another, etc. This 'multiple flags' lifestyle is a strategy that anyone can adopt – and it's one of the best ways to avoid ending up like the Jones kids.
*http://www.sovereignman.com/expat/ending-up-like-the-joneses-10453/
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If you're reading this and under 30, let me be absolutely clear about one indubitable point: your government is going to sacrifice your future in order to pay for its own mistakes from the past. [If that kind of future does not sit well with you] then get out of Dodge. Stop playing by the same rules of the game that used to work in the past because the old playbook of "go to school, get a good job, work your way up the ladder" simply doesn't apply anymore. [This article outlines what is being laid out as your future unless you take independent action and, in conclusion, outlines suggestions on how to make a better life for yourself. Feel free to share this article with one and all!] Words: 1058 Like health, freedom erodes gradually over time… then all at once. We lose a freedom here, there, through a slow, measured deterioration of civil and economic liberty: body scanners at the airport; declarations of foreign accounts; mandatory health insurance and then, suddenly, there's a bifurcation point when the deterioration goes nonlinear. It's like the old saying about going broke– it happens gradually, then all at once. We lose our freedoms in the same way. [That is already happening in Argentina where the government is] screwing everyone, big time: banks, businesses, workers, retirees, professionals, entrepreneurs, even government employees and the U.S. is starting to go down this road as well. [Let me explain.] Words: 625 3. U.S. Events Suggest It's Time to Further Internationalize Your Portfolio With both the fiscal cliff and debt ceiling looming, US stocks beginning to trail stocks overseas and the much increased volatility of the US market compared to those outside the United States, it is getting difficult to argue that the United States is still the "safe port" in a storm. Given the changing dynamic, we continue to believe that this is a good time for investors to consider lowering their overweight position in US equities while raising the allocation to international stocks. [I explain my position more fully in this article.] Words: 711 4. Why It's Exit Time – For Your Gold, Your Wealth and Your Family The United States and most of Europe…risk an eruption and collapse of the mountain of unsustainable sovereign debt built up over the last two decades. Frankly, the U.S. dollar and national debt situation is so dire – and our means to contain a sovereign debt crisis so limited by multiple wars and Washington's debt and political incompetence at home – that anything could happen, almost overnight. [The best] America and most European governments and the central banking elites, which created the criminal sovereign debt fiasco, [appear able to do is] try to buy more time and delay the inevitable. This inaction means the threat of an immediate US debt and dollar collapse cannot be ruled out. Therefore, readers who have not protected themselves certainly have cause to worry because now could be too late. [Let me explain further.] Words: 1689 The U.S. has reached a Debt to GDP ratio of over 100%. Indeed, at no point in history has the U.S. had this much debt during peacetime – and the fact that we're overspending by this amount at the exact time that other countries are showing signs of shunning US Treasuries is a formula for disaster. With that in mind, it is highly likely that the U.S. will enter at the very minimum a debt crisis and quite possibly a currency crisis during the Obama administration's second term. [Such being the case,] now, more than ever, investors need to get access to high quality guidance and insights [and this article does just that] to help you navigate the markets and protect your wealth. Words: 964 Many articles are being written these days that more or less scope the dire financial circumstances the U.S. is in. That being said, I had not been able to find one "analyst" – even one – who had the guts to outline the probable outcome and general hopelessness of the situation and to offer any meaningful prescription for investors to survive this coming catastrophe – until now. Words: 710
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Edward Conard: Unintended Consequences – YouTube Posted: 18 Jan 2013 05:33 PM PST Check our website daily at... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit http://www.figanews.com for full Content ]] |
The Gold Price Bottomed on January 4th Rising $26.60 this Week Buy Silver and Gold Period Posted: 18 Jan 2013 04:57 PM PST Gold Price Close Today : 1,686.60 Gold Price Close 11-Jan-13 : 1,660.00 Change : 26.60 or 1.6% Silver Price Close Today : 31.90 Silver Price Close 11-Jan-13 : 30.37 Change : 1.535 or 5.1% Gold Silver Ratio Today : 52.868 Gold Silver Ratio 11-Jan-13 : 54.665 Change : -1.80 or -3.3% Silver Gold Ratio : 0.01891 Silver Gold Ratio 11-Jan-13 : 0.01829 Change : 0.00062 or 3.4% Dow in Gold Dollars : $ 167.30 Dow in Gold Dollars 11-Jan-13 : $ 167.97 Change : -$0.67 or -0.4% Dow in Gold Ounces : 8.093 Dow in Gold Ounces 11-Jan-13 : 8.126 Change : -0.03 or -0.4% Dow in Silver Ounces : 427.86 Dow in Silver Ounces 11-Jan-13 : 444.18 Change : -16.32 or -3.7% Dow Industrial : 13,649.70 Dow Industrial 11-Jan-13 : 13,488.43 Change : 161.27 or 1.2% S&P 500 : 1,485.98 S&P 500 11-Jan-13 : 1,472.05 Change : 13.93 or 0.9% US Dollar Index : 80.030 US Dollar Index 11-Jan-13 : 79.564 Change : 0.466 or 0.6% Platinum Price Close Today : 1,672.10 Platinum Price Close 11-Jan-13 : 1,629.30 Change : 42.80 or 2.6% Palladium Price Close Today : 722.00 Palladium Price Close 11-Jan-13 : 700.70 Change : 21.30 or 3.0% The GOLD PRICE high came at $1,695, low at $1,684.70. Trying to remain sober, I note that gold has enjoyed 4 upweeks out of the last four. However, momentum indicators like the MACD and RSI, with plenty of room to rise. Then I think about GOLD punching at the top of its Bollinger Bands and cool a little. So maybe gold will take a breather next week, move sideways before it takes off again. The mark for gold to beat has become $1,705. A close over that will attract lots of buyers, a close over $1,730 flocks of 'em. SILVER PRICE gained 11.6 cents today to close Comex at 3190.2c. Gold lost $3.80 to close at $1,686.60, still above that early December low. SILVER PRICE is in the same position as gold, strong momentum indicators and above all its moving averages except the 50 day. Looks ready to rise. A GOLD PRICE close above $1,705 will carry gold immediately higher. A close below $1,685 sets the stage for a modest fall, maybe to $1,660. I believe the bottom for the correction from the October highs came on 4 January. Buy silver or gold, period, but especially on any price retreat. The party has kicked off again. I know a trader who says, "The week never lies." That is, you can't argue with a scoreboard. This week silver showed up on that scoreboard as the clear winner, up 5.1%. Gold gained 1.6%. Stocks, for all the jubilating and publicity, gained 1.2% (Dow) and 0.9% (S&P500). US Dollar index came back to life today, and platinum and palladium roared. You won't understand what's going on unless you note that in spite of stocks' gains this week, the Dow in Gold and the Dow in Silver FELL. US DOLLAR INDEX finally broke through 79.80 resistance and jumped to touch 80.187,although it has backed off now to 80.03, up 31.6 basis points (0.41%). 80 now becomes support. I hate dealing with these old nasty currencies. It's like sorting cow pies, and, worse yet, they're driven by political central bank policies you can never discern from a chart. They're all mixed up now. Dollar won't rally, and won't break down. Stuck Euro rallies, then changes its mind -- twice over. It closed down 0.43% today to $1.3316. Apparently the Keynesian lamebrains running the US government and Fed don't care that the Japanese have cheapened their currency by nearly 15% since September, by the mere swirling of paper gaining a competitive advantage over US manufacturers. But shucks, these and earlier lamebrains -- including ESPECIALLY the Republicans back to Reagan -- have already sent most US manufacturing overseas by currency and tariff manipulations. I don't know how an occupying army could have done the U.S. more damage. Whose side are they on? Not ours. Yen lost another 0.27% to close at 111.03 cents/Y100. I hope y'all like flipping hamburgers for a living. Stocks this week made a new high for the rally that begin in mid-November, and slightly bettered the high from October. Then today they added modestly to that. Dow gained 53.68 (0.39%) to 13,649.70 while the S&P500 gained 0.34% (5.04) to 1,485.98. Question now becometh, Can they reach new highs higher than the October 2007 high (intraday 14,198.10)? Recalling that the Dow has traced a massive broadening top or megaphone Jaws of Death formation, it really won't matter. That would be the ideal ploy for a bear market to suck in more victims. Never mind. Look at a 15 year chart of any stock index in the world and you'll see a massive head and shoulders formation that measure to a point so low it makes no sense. Right now the Dow is finishing the top of that right shoulder. Once it begins to fall, O, have mercy! Weeping, wailing, and gnashing of teeth will follow, without relief. The Dow in Gold and Dow in Silver have been correcting these last 18 months or so after those metal highs in April 2011 and August 2012. Now they are re-awakening. Since the August 1999 top in Dow/Gold, stocks have lost about 85% of their value against gold, and about the same against silver. Before this metals bull market/stock bear market ends, stocks will lose ANOTHER 85% against metals, more against silver. Knowing that ought to make y'all pull those IRAS out of stocks faster than you can say, "Call my stock broker!" Still, the sad nature of humanity is to linger too long on the cliff' edge. Here's a little tip that even many silver and gold dealers don't understand. The most reliable indicator of silver's direction is an extreme in the premium on US 90% silver coins ("Premium" is the amount it sells for over or under its metal value.) As recently as 4 October 2012 at the last peak, wholesalers were paying spot silver less 25 cents for US 90% and selling at 10 cents an ounce over spot. A month later, with silver about $3 lower, they were offering to buy at 5 cents under spot. By end of November they were paying spot. By the beginning of January they were paying 20c over spot, and today I can get 65 cents over spot. Most dealers are not offering 90% for sale, or offering it only at 4 week delays, even at 100c an ounce over spot. The high 90% premium is one reason I have been so stubbornly expecting a silver bottom, and why I thought 4 January was a bottom. Another footnote to this story: t'ain't nothing like as much US 90% silver coin in the world as everybody thinks. It has been melted since the late 1960s, zillions of bags. One day everybody's going to wake up and say, "How come those bags are carrying a 40% premium?" Easy: because they are the most useful form of silver investments, most divisible, and there aren't many left. CONFISCATION? After I denounced the government gold confiscation myth yesterday, a bewildered subscriber wrote, "Haven't you always been saying the NGM would confiscate gold?" Here's my reply: 1. I have never in the past 15 years written that "today's NGM want to pull off the same dirty trick" of confiscation. You must have misinterpreted what I wrote. 2. Yes, gold offers a safe haven from hyperinflation, but the central banks and governments have spent the last 80 years driving gold out of the system and proclaiming it is not money. Confiscating it will prove otherwise. 3. The spoils don't justify the game. People who buy gold or silver by and large do not trust the financial system or the government/Fed. Imagine porcupines in a liverish mood, and you'll have a good picture how sweetly they would cooperate with confiscation. The loot confiscated won't repay the NGM's grief suffered in the confiscating. 4. The LONG TERM game is for the Insiders to get as much gold possible as cheaply as possible (probably the main purpose of the gold price suppression 1996 - 2005), to run the inflation game as long as possible, and THEN to reverse their field and again base the monetary system on gold. That will only happen after they have bled the rest of us dry and the whole system has gone hooves up. That's a long time off. 5. 2013 is not 1934. Circumstances today, as well as the law, have all changed. Again, you are more likely to be abducted by aliens from the planet Zambodia tonight than you are to suffer the government confiscating your gold. Y'all enjoy your weekend. Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought. - Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger The-MoneyChanger.com 1-888-218-9226 10:00am-5:00pm CST, Monday-Friday © 2012, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission. To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down. WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned: Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures. NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps. NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced. NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt. What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands. One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose. No, I don't. |
Pictet On The Sudden Depreciation Of The Swiss Franc Posted: 18 Jan 2013 03:50 PM PST Via Pictet, Following the recent fall of the Swiss franc against the euro, there were paradoxical comments on the opportunity on both moving the Swiss National Bank's floor lower (say to 1.25 for example) or on abandoning it altogether (or moving it higher). We believe both options are very unlikely, at least in the coming months. Moving the floor lower would be a bad idea in our view. As we have seen, the extent of the franc's overvaluation is quite debatable and the lower the floor, the quicker a monetary policy dilemma may emerge. Moreover, in the event renewed upward pressures on the franc occur once again, a lower floor may prove more costly in terms of FX interventions. In any case, the SNB was relatively clear recently in saying that it has no plan to move the floor. On the other hand, now that the euro is far higher than 1.20 francs, it could look tempting for the SNB to take the opportunity to simply abandon the floor. However, this would be quite a risky bet. As mentioned below, a new bout of the euro crisis may break out at some stage or another over the coming months, propelling the franc sharply higher once again. Then what would the SNB do? Reset a floor? In short, by abandoning the floor already now, the SNB would be playing dangerously with its credibility. In our view, we continue to believe the floor might be abandoned (or possibly raised substantially) at some stage, but most likely not before next year. The franc has weakened sharply against the euro this year #ccc;" />
What to expect for the future?
Swiss franc weakness unlikely to last in our view
#ccc;" />
From a longer-term point of view, things are also not that straightforward either. At first sight, it would seem reasonable to bet on a lower Swiss franc against the euro. First, although some downward euro correction is quite possible in the short run, we expect the single currency to appreciate further against the dollar during the course of 2013, on the back of improving world and European growth and further – although irregular – progress in resolving the euro crisis. Second, the Swiss franc still seems to be overvalued (see chart above).
#ccc;" />
However, we are not convinced by these lines of reasoning. The extent of the franc's overvaluation is debatable. Swiss exports were surprisingly resilient to the strength of the franc. The Swiss export industry is currently not suffering so much from a lack of competitiveness but rather from a lack of demand. Moreover, it's worth noting that at current inflation differentials (around 2.5 percentage points less inflation in Switzerland compared to the weighted average of its trading partners), the estimated overvaluation of the real trade weighted value of the Swiss franc (around 2.5% currently) would be erased in a year or so, and all that with no further nominal exchange rate movements. Toward a monetary policy dilemma at the SNB? Consequently, we believe by year-end the Swiss franc is more likely to be stronger than today, rather than weaker. We maintain our forecast of a euro at 1.20-1.22 franc in 12 months' time. #ccc;" />
The floor should remain in place and unchanged Following the recent fall of the Swiss franc against the euro, there were paradoxical comments on the opportunity on both moving the floor lower (say to 1.25 for example) or on abandoning it altogether (or moving it higher). We believe both options are very unlikely, at least in the coming months. Moving the floor lower would be a bad idea in our view. As we have seen, the extent of the franc's overvaluation is quite debatable and the lower the floor, the quicker a monetary policy dilemma may emerge. Moreover, in the event renewed upward pressures on the franc occur once again, a lower floor may prove more costly in terms of FX interventions. In any case, the SNB was relatively clear recently in saying that it has no plan to move the floor. On the other hand, now that the euro is far higher than 1.20 francs, it could look tempting for the SNB to take the opportunity to simply abandon the floor. However, this would be quite a risky bet. As mentioned above, a new bout of the euro crisis may break out at some stage or another over the coming months, propelling the franc sharply higher once again. Then what would the SNB do? Reset a floor? In short, by abandoning the floor already now, the SNB would be playing dangerously with its credibility. In our view, we continue to believe the floor might be abandoned (or possibly raised substantially) at some stage, but most likely not before next year.
Critically, as SNBCHF blog noted, while the SNB did make aprofit last year, Q4 saw them give a lot of it back - suggesting the deltas (or exposure) is very high (and senstivie to JPY and Gold):
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Silver Update: CHINA GOLD DEMAND TO PUSH PRICE OVER $2,000 – YouTube Posted: 18 Jan 2013 03:49 PM PST Check our website daily at... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit http://www.figanews.com for full Content ]] |
Posted: 18 Jan 2013 03:43 PM PST Check our website daily at... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit http://www.figanews.com for full Content ]] |
Silver Momentum Builds as U.S. Mint Sells Out of January Eagles Posted: 18 Jan 2013 03:22 PM PST CNBC's commodities observer Sharon Epperson with a brief note about silver from Friday, January 18. Topics include heavy demand in silver ETFs and a shortage of silver Eagle coins at the U.S. mint.
Direct link to the video: http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000142169 |
Peter Schiff Blog: A Default Means A Complete Collapse In The Bond Market Posted: 18 Jan 2013 03:20 PM PST Check our website daily at... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit http://www.figanews.com for full Content ]] |
Posted: 18 Jan 2013 03:16 PM PST Register to "Follow the munKNEE" and automatically receive all articles posted The United States is not going to become energy independent because of tight oil. Period. Reports to the contrary are an illusion of U.S. energy independence based on unrealistic assumptions and projections about the long-term potential of oil production from tight formations like the Bakken Shale in North Dakota and the Eagle Ford Shale in Texas. There are several compelling reasons for this [as outlined below]. Words: 575 So writes Arthur Berman*, Labyrinth Consulting Services, in a guest editorial for The Economic Straight Talk Newsletter - Insights for Serious Traders and Investors, entitled The Illusion of U.S. Energy Independence. Economic Straight Talk uses proprietary filtering technology and personal filtering, coupled with the expert input of Ian R. Campbell, to select highly relevant economic, financial market, and resources news – insightfully, quickly, and efficiently - to which is added commentary to help you make better investment decisions and save you time in the process.
Below are Berman's 3 reasons why the U.S. is not going to become energy independent because of tight oil: 1. These new plays have extremely high decline rates. The aggregate decline rate of producing Bakken and Eagle Ford wells is 38% and 42% per year, respectively. Conventional oilfield decline rates average 4-5% per year. This means that the only way that production can continue to grow is by constantly drilling new wells. At roughly $10 million per well, that requires access to vast amounts of capital. Rig counts in these plays are now below the peaks. This implies that there are either capital or well performance constraints. I estimate that 1,500 new wells must be drilled in the Bakken ($17 billion) and 800 new wells in the Eagle Ford ($8 billion) this year just to keep production from declining. Almost 70% of Bakken and almost 90% of Eagle Ford production in the first half o 2012 is form wells that began production in the last 18 months. See subscription details here. 2. These tight oil plays require $80-90 per barrel oil prices to break even. None of the exuberant reports about U.S. energy independence discuss cost, price or profit margins — they only focus on volumes. The truth is that oil prices have been in the $87-$95 range for the last quarter which means that profits are marginal in these plays. In fields or "sweet spots" operators are making money but the average well in the play loses money. See subscription details here. 3. The biggest and most productive discoveries are made early and, for the most part, subsequent discoveries are smaller and well performance is poorer. Predictions that the U.S. will surpass Saudi Arabia and Russia in oil production must assume that current discovery and production rates in the Bakken and Eagle Ford will continue, except that they never do. The fallacy of this assumption is noted in a January 15, 2013 report by Bernstein Research: "Analysis of well results in the Eagle Ford (horizontal), Bakken (horizontal), and Permian (both vertical and horizontal)suggest average per-well oil IP [initial production] rates have peaked and are currently below 2010-11 highs." Conclusion The United States consumes approximately 15 million barrels of crude oil per day and produces about 6.5 million barrels per day including the Bakken and Eagle Ford additions to date. That means that 8.5 million barrels per day must be imported. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (Department of Energy) estimates that U.S. crude oil production will increase to nearly eight million barrels per day by 2020 and then decline. If the EIA is correct, the United States will still have to import about seven million barrels per day allowing for demand decline, and that does not look like energy independence to me.
*About Arthur Berman (http://host.trustab.org/labyrinthconsultingservicesinc): Mr. Berman is a petroleum geologist with 34 years of oil & gas industry experience – 20 years working with Amoco (now BP) and 14 years as a consulting geologist – a Director of The Association for the Study of Peak Oil, and a past Director of The Houston Geological Society and The Society of Independent Professional Earth Scientists.)
Other "Economic Straight Talk" Commentary: 1. "Ponzi Finance": What Must Happen To Bring It To An End? The Boston Consulting Group has issued a paper that recommends 10 steps that developed countries must take to end what they refer to as 'Ponzi finance' and to return to a sustainable growth path but I believe their recommendations to be but theoretical and impractical constructs. While I believe we face – and will experience – interesting, speculative, fragile, and very challenging and very likely life-changing times going forward, I believe that the only thing that will force developed country politicians to work for common purposes is a further global financial crisis. This article provides an overview and assessment of said paper and the rationale for my position. Words: 600 2. Don't Blithely Accept the Views of Stock & Commodity Commentators – Here's Why Many…commentaries by people referred to as 'gurus' or 'experts'…often don't state the assumptions that underlie the opinions they express leaving the reader…to take at face value what is said based on 'assumed expertise'. I suggest you exercise caution and not blithely accept the views of 'experts' without first understanding their underlying assumptions and then satisfying yourself that those assumptions both make sense and are internally consistent with the views and opinions the 'experts' express, and the advice they give. Let me explain more fully below. 4. Campbell's Challenge: Stop Being a Lemming! Contradictory Points of View are Imperative – Here's Why 5. Campbell: Balanced Opinions Regarding Gold & Silver are Paramount – Here's Why
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Kyle Bass: Japan is a debt time bomb, Kyle Bass Blog Posted: 18 Jan 2013 02:55 PM PST Check our website daily at... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit http://www.figanews.com for full Content ]] |
Doug Casey: "We Are Living In The Middle Of The Biggest Bubble In History." Posted: 18 Jan 2013 02:48 PM PST The recovery since the 2008 financial crisis is just an illusion created by the papering-over of our insolvency by central-bank printing. Doug Casey adds that the current state is akin to being "in the eye of the hurricane thanks to this 'cover'" and believes the printing which will ultimately lead to very high inflation once bank lending starts to pick up again. This excellent interview moves from Casey's view of a looming loss of confidence in the dollar (and the impact of mass repatriation) to what must the Keynesians be thinking as the "apparency of prosperity" remains all that we have to lift animal spirits. With an eye to gold (and non-western central banks behavior towards it as they realize "the USD is just an unsecured liability of a bankrupt government"), he evaluates the likelihood of a western economic collapse in 2013 and what that would imply for an implicit gold standard in the world. From Austrian economist Hans Herman-Hoppe's view of a post-Keynesian-crash era to his potential triggers for this collapse (such as gold-energy barter and non-dollar blocs), Casey succinctly reminds us that there is not just one asset-class bubble but that "we are living in the middle of the biggest bubble in history."
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German Gold: 4 Lessons for Private Investors Posted: 18 Jan 2013 02:31 PM PST The Bundesbank's announcement contained little news for the market. But for private investors...? The German Bundesbank is rightly famed as the world's least stupid central bank. Capping German inflation at single-digits all through ... Read More... |
Greyerz - We Are Now Seeing Massive Shortages Of Silver Posted: 18 Jan 2013 02:25 PM PST Today Egon von Greyerz told King World News he is now seeing massive shortages of silver. Greyerz went on to warn about a frightening series of global storms which are set to collide, which will create an enormous hurricane in 2013. He also spoke about gold and included a tremendous chart that all KWN readers will want to see. Here is what Greyerz, who is founder of Matterhorn Asset Management in Switzerland, had this to say in this remarkable, exclusive interview: "Eric, I see storm clouds gathering everywhere. We have currency storms, economic, political, and geopolitical storms. But short-term we may see some optimism in the economy as global stock markets make their final top." This posting includes an audio/video/photo media file: Download Now |
Posted: 18 Jan 2013 02:17 PM PST The USD ends the week up over 0.6%, Treasury yields down 2-4bps, Silver up 4.6%, Oil 2%, and Gold 1.4%; but it is VIX that rules the waves of unreality this week as it collapsed from this morning's unchanged on the week, played catch down to stocks (from yesterday) and then led stocks on a vol steepening/compression extravaganza down to 12.31% - its lowest since June 2007 as the 'contingent' extension of the debt-limit appeared the initial trigger and nothing at all the secondary trigger. AAPL wavered below and tested up to $500 (amid very large average trade size) but was the distinct loser once again with size sellers as S&P 500 futures surged (yet agin inferring the unwind of the long-AAPL, short-ES trade continues). Once the fire was lit, there was no stopping the stop-chasing momo run in stocks as ES chased all the way up above the week's highs. VXX was crushed (as the curve also compressed) and high-yield credit and stocks tracked each other in the rampapalooza. Of course the moment the day-session close, ES cracked back lower but for now no one cares (ending up just 5 points in the S&P cash). Average trade size was high once again in the S&P as the USD, Bonds, and Stocks were bid.
Treasuries didn't buy it but who cares - VIX led the way...
VIX recoupled then they were off to the races together...
S&P 500 futures are 4-5points off the day-session closing highs as futures close...but we have tested this upper range...
And Treasuries were not buying this risk-on thing...
Nothing is stopping stocks now... USD strength on the week...
Tech was the only loser on the week (thanks to AAPL) as Energy and Industrials led - with financials just eking out a gain by the close today. Stocks took off in the afternoon in a world of their own relative to risk once again as cross-asset-class correlatin collapsed with CONTEXT (our risk proxy) not buying into the strength at all...
The VIX term structure steepened notably once again to near 5-month steeps - and pushing it near a cyclical level that tends to mark short-term turning points in complacency in stocks...
What happened the last time VIX dropped this far this fast? It was July 2006...
Charts: Bloomberg and Capital Context |
Gold Seeker Weekly Wrap-Up: Gold and Silver Gain About 1% and 5% on the Week Posted: 18 Jan 2013 02:16 PM PST Gold climbed $8.30 to $1695.20 by a little before 9AM EST, but it then chopped back lower for most of the rest of trade and ended near its late session low of $1683.63 with a loss of 0.17%. Silver surged to as high as $32.111 before it also fell back off, but it still ended with a gain of 0.47%. |
Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts - RIP Adrian Douglas Posted: 18 Jan 2013 02:15 PM PST This posting includes an audio/video/photo media file: Download Now |
Ambrose Evans–Pritchard beats about the bush Posted: 18 Jan 2013 02:14 PM PST To argue with Ambrose Evans-Pritchard is risky. He is well-informed, he has travelled much, writes well and has a sharp intellect. Yet, I must affirm that he is mistaken in some of the opinions expressed in his recent article at "The Telegraph" www.telegraph.co.uk "A new Gold Standard is being born" January 17, 2013. |
Fake Statistics, Freaky Silver Posted: 18 Jan 2013 02:06 PM PST January 18, 2013
"Something has to be done to change this," read the tweet. And with that, the "hacker collective" known as Anonymous took down an unlikely target last night: Argentina's National Institute of Statistics and Census, known by its Spanish acronym INDEC. Argentina is ground zero for manipulation of official inflation figures. INDEC says the cost of living rose 10.8% last year. Consultants and critics say 25.6% is more like it. But they say so at their own peril: In 2011, the government of President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner "levied heavy fines, and in some cases criminal charges, against several economists for publishing inflation estimates that were significantly higher than what INDEC reports," according to Dow Jones Newswires. "They lie to the people, but the people are true to their word," Anonymous replies. The Daily Reckoning's Joel Bowman concurs: "Inflation is theft… and the people here know it," he wrote yesterday before Anonymous made its move. Kirchner is an idiot… but she's no fool. Last year during a talk at Georgetown University, she was asked about her country's number-fudging. She responded by asking what the U.S. consumer price index was. Told it was 2%, she said, "Oh, really? Come on! And you believe that? If Argentina's inflation rate was at 25% like some people say, the country will blow up in the air." "Hey, everybody does it…" At last check, INDEC's website was still down. Wonder if the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics is fortifying its firewalls today… Heh. Stocks are mixed as the week winds down. All the major indexes are slightly in the red, the S&P off three points from its new post-2007 high yesterday of 1,480. "It does us no good to bicker with the rallies and corrections," writes technician Greg Guenthner — mindful of yesterday's melt-up. "Never mind the fact that January job reports are always a little screwy after the holiday season. Or that manufacturing in Philly missed its number by a good margin. And don't forget that while 71% of companies in the S&P reporting earnings so far have beaten estimates, fourth-quarter profits have grown only 2.5%. That's the second-slowest growth period since 2009, according to Bloomberg. "The market doesn't care about these concerns. I'm not saying they won't matter at some point. But right now the market wants higher. Mood is trumping any potential bad news right now. "In the short term, we will see higher prices. That's all you need to know." Greg is now delivering trading insights like these every day before the open in The Rude Awakening — the morning complement to your afternoon Daily Reckoning. Long-suffering "DR" readers are automatically getting it in their inboxes. If you're not among them, sign up at the homepage. Precious metals are little changed from 24 hours ago. Spot gold goes for $1,686, silver for $31.82. Dollar strength is providing a bit of resistance: The dollar index pushed above 80 this morning. Platinum, meanwhile, has once again fallen below the gold price. At last check, the bid was $1,669. Ten days was all it took for the U.S. Mint to empty its inventory of Silver Eagles. The 2013 issue didn't go on sale until Jan. 7… and as of yesterday, the Mint informed its dealer network that the first batch is sold out. "Periodic suspensions and rationing of Silver Eagle bullion coins had become almost commonplace between the years of 2008 and 2010," according to Coin Update. "The past month seems to be a return to the times of old." Sales so far this month total 6,007,000 — a number eclipsed only by January 2012, with the record in January 2011. That record might fall; the Mint says the next batch is due to arrive the week of Jan. 28. Meanwhile, "there was a mysterious jump on Thursday of 572 tonnes in the quantity of silver held by the custodians at iShares Silver trust (SLV)," writes Alasdair Macleod at GoldMoney. According to Joshua Gibbons at a site called about.ag, that's $500 million in new shares, and by far the largest deposit into SLV in at least two years. "This is a huge amount," Macleod concurs, "which, if genuine, suggests the market is cleaned out of physical. If not, the custodian in the interests of an orderly market owes an explanation." Hmmm… "It appears that a widespread retail, and perhaps industrial, physical silver shortage is developing and escalating by the hour," reads an excitable post from the reliably excitable SilverDoctors webpage. It cites an Apple sales contractor who says it's been 10 weeks since Apple shipped any 27-inch iMacs due to "production problems." Seems the model's new Iris screens use a lot more silver. "Apple manufactures its iMacs and iPads in China," the post goes on, "and China is now importing massive amounts of silver, where once a few years ago it was a net exporter — and this in spite of a huge increase in domestic silver production!" Double hmmm… Watch China's real estate bust to return with a vengeance, warns our macro strategist Dan Amoss: "Many poorly planned real estate projects are not producing cash flow. The loans that funded these projects were, in many cases, not rolled over during China's credit tightening phase of 2010-11. "Noncreditworthy borrowers, shunned from the banking system, were desperate to find new sources of funding. They found high-interest, short-term funding from 'trust' companies. Trust companies match savers looking to earn high interest rates with desperate borrowers. "At the end of last year, borrowers scrambled to secure loans from trust companies. According to new data from China's central bank, trust loans rose 679% in the year ending December 2012, to 264 billion yuan (US$42 billion). High-interest-rate trust loans now make up 16% of China's entire pool of financing (including stock and bond sales). "Trust loans, like payday loans in the U.S., have short maturities. 'The amount of loans in China due to mature within 12 months doubled in four years to 24.8 trillion yuan,' reports Bloomberg. Short-term loans amount to more than 50% of Chinese GDP. "Local governments are big trust loan borrowers. They've recently reverted to bad, old infrastructure spending habits. The recent revival in infrastructure spending may be cut off when trust loan defaults soar and the central government is forced to restructure this mess." How can you profit from turmoil in China? Learn how to short China's entire financial system in a single NYSE-listed stock in today's 5 Min. Forecast PRO. If you're already subscribed, it's at the bottom of this email. If you're not, you still have four days to take advantage of a free trial. "Guess a Nobel in trade means you can pontificate on fiscal matters & declare my country a 'wasteland,'" he went on, referring to Krugman's "Estonian Rhapsody" article criticizing the Baltic country's austerity measures. "Twitter wars" as the media has dubbed them, especially when it comes to Mr. Krugman, are nothing new. What is new is composer Eugene Birman's Krugman vs. Ilves-inspired project: a "financial opera." "Nostra Culpa (Our Fault)," journalist and the project's libretto writer Scott Diel explains to AFP, "is a short 16 minute operatic piece which takes up the age-old economic disagreement of austerity vs. stimulus." The title is inspired by a series of mocking tweets from Ilves concluding in, "Let's sh*t on East Europeans." "Scott took various parts of the president's tweets," Birman told The Wall Street Journal, "and we tried to create almost a refrain for the respective public figures. For Krugman, for example, it's simply 'Stimulate!' while for Ilves, it's 'Nostra culpa.'" This isn't the only thing Mr. Krugman's "print and prosper" views have inspired lately… "If New York Times columnist Paul Krugman, " Breitbart reported last September, "debates Austrian economist Robert Murphy, a New York food bank will get over $73,000." Last year, Robert Murphy, an Austrian School economist and anarcho-capitalist, started a campaign to encourage the Keynesian Krugman to join him in debate. Although the campaign has reached a whopping $81,365, Murphy's had no luck: "Yet Krugman," Breitbart goes on, "who believes in income redistribution to help the poor, has refused to debate Murphy." We wonder if he's tried Twitter. [Ed. Note: For those unfamiliar with Robert's work, he's been attributed to predicting the housing crisis before it popped in October 2007 in an article titled, "The Worst Recession in 25 Years?" He wrote, "One of the consequences that has already manifested itself is the housing bubble. But a more severe liquidation seems unavoidable. The recent Fed [interest rate] cut may postpone the day of reckoning, but it will only make the adjustment that much harsher." Last week, we were able to get Mr. Murphy in our studio to publicly release his newest forecast and three specific "triggers" to watch out for before the next financial crisis hits. He's calling it The Anatomy of Booms and Busts: How to Detect, and Protect Yourself From, the Coming Crisis. This exclusive three-day installment can be accessed only until Sunday at 5 p.m., here.] "Is it possible," a surly reader writes, "to get any objective analysis on precious metals, instead of never-ending pumps by front-running gold fanboys such as Chris Mayer? "Oh, but by all means, keep humping Rancho Santana. Great photos. Makes me want to jump on a plane. Who cares if it is in BF Egypt. Isn't that the point?" The 5: Chris Mayer? A "front-running gold fanboy"? Now that's a 5 first. As for the Ranch, no it won't be everyone's cup of tea… but what place is? Fact of the matter is we've had overwhelming response to our plans for the next Chill Weekend next month. Enough that we're looking to do another sometime this spring. We'll keep you up to date. Heck, we feel like showing another photo… "I love your stuff…at least, most of the time." [This is a nice twist from the usual -- the "however" part right there in the first sentence.] "But I can tell you with the absolute certainty of Scripture that God alone has had, does have and forever will have the power to grant a person 'eternal life.' Heaven will NEVER be robbed of that… by any man at any time. It's a guarantee! 'For inasmuch as it is appointed for all men to die once and after this comes judgment.' (Hebrews 9:27) God's Word on the matter is true…and every man's hope otherwise — a most cruel deception." The 5: Taking the God Switch a bit too literally, are we? Well, we knew from the outset when our researcher came back with the fruits of his research that it would stir the pot. As always, we leave it to you to make an informed decision. "With respect," a reader writes on the conflict in Mali, "the Tuaregs have been resisting French imperialism since the late 1800s. No doubt the recent events in Libya and renewed French (and U.S.?) incursions into Mali have rekindled their hatreds, but there does seem to be more of a back story than you suggest. Thanks, and love The 5." The 5: You mean history didn't begin on Sept. 11, 2001? Imagine that… "I just signed up yesterday after you beat me over the head a few times," writes a new reader of The 5′s PRO level of service. You already saved me upward of $600 with the VERY GOOD handbook. "I called my broker and got $3 off each trade. I did about 300 trades last year and 34 so far this year. The 5: Thanks, we're happy to oblige. If you haven't already signed up, you got an extremely brief email from us this morning reminding you there are only four days to take advantage of our free trial offer. It looked like this… We're not trying to be obnoxious. We're just making the point that once this free trial offer expires, the likelihood is we will never extend it again. No time like the present. "Adored the investor kitty joke! So cute!" The 5: You're too kind: This editor spent entirely too much time coming up with it yesterday… and still thought it was lame when all was said and done! Have a good weekend, Dave Gonigam P.S. Moments before press time, the Federal Reserve released transcripts from its August 2007 meeting. "Federal Reserve officials in August 2007 remained skeptical that housing foreclosures could cause a financial crisis, just days before the Fed was jolted into action," says The New York Times in its best irony-free style. "Just three days later, the Fed's chairman, Ben S. Bernanke, convened an early-morning conference call to inform them that the central bank had been forced to start pumping money into a financial system that was suddenly seizing up. More than five years later, the system remains heavily dependent on those pumps." As noted above, Robert Murphy saw the crisis coming at a time the Fed thought everything was peachy keen. He's identified three triggers for the next crisis coming our way… and one of them's already been pulled. Don't miss Mr. Murphy's special video series The Anatomy of Booms and Busts: How to Detect, and Protect Yourself From, the Coming Crisis. There's still time to sign up, but not much time: We close the doors at 5:00 p.m. on Sunday. P.P.S. We're back tomorrow with 5 Things You Need to Know — your weekly way to catch up on anything you missed 5-wise during the week. U.S. markets are closed Monday for Martin Luther King Jr. Day… so the weekday edition of The 5 returns on Tuesday. |
Gold Mania Phase Approaching for Junior Miners Posted: 18 Jan 2013 02:00 PM PST Low market valuations for junior mining companies have Michael Ballanger, director of wealth management at Richardson GMP, feeling like a kid in a candy store, and equities satisfy his sweet tooth more than the metal right now. Ballanger has had enough years in the business to recognize the advent of gold fever. In this Gold Report interview, Ballanger discusses his personal views and discusses how he looks for "well-incubated" companies that meet budget and timelines and raise funds without diluting shareholder value. He also shares why he sees junior miners as higher reward and lower risk than gold itself. |
Gold and Silver Disaggregated COT Report (DCOT) for January 18 Posted: 18 Jan 2013 01:42 PM PST HOUSTON -- This week's Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) disaggregated commitments of traders (DCOT) report was released at 15:30 ET Friday. Our recap of the changes in weekly positioning by the disaggregated trader classes, as compiled by the CFTC, is just below. (DCOT Table for January 18, 2013, for data as of the close on Tuesday, January 15. Source CFTC for COT data, Cash Market for gold and silver.) (More...) In the DCOT table above a net short position shows as a negative figure in red. A net long position shows in black. In the Change column, a negative number indicates either an increase to an existing net short position or a reduction of a net long position. A black figure in the Change column indicates an increase to an existing long position or a reduction of an existing net short position. The way to think of it is that black figures in the Change column are traders getting "longer" and red figures are traders getting less long or shorter. All of the trader's positions are calculated net of spreading contracts as of the Tuesday disaggregated COT report. |
COT Gold, Silver and US Dollar Index Report - January 18, 2013 Posted: 18 Jan 2013 01:32 PM PST COT Gold, Silver and US Dollar Index Report - January 18, 2013 |
Posted: 18 Jan 2013 01:29 PM PST Before investors can sell high and multiply their wealth, they first have to buy low. The lower any trade's entry price, the greater its ultimate profits. The best time to buy low is when stocks are deeply out of favor, when few others are ... Read More... |
Kyle Bass – Japan ‘Debt Time Bomb’ Ticking Posted: 18 Jan 2013 12:51 PM PST Hayman Capital's Kyle Bass gets a few minutes of CNBC time today in New York. Bass says that Japan's move to attempt to create inflation through weakening the Yen is a trigger that will detonate her 'debt time bomb.' He figures the fuse has maybe 18 to 24 months of time left.
Direct link to the CNBC clip: http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000142263 |
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