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Friday, January 18, 2013

Gold World News Flash

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Gold World News Flash


The January effect on the price of gold

Posted: 18 Jan 2013 07:10 AM PST

Since the gold bull market began in 2002, there have been three major corrections. The first one began in 2006. It took 71 weeks before a new record high price was established. Gold then rose by 50%. The next correction began in 2008. 77 weeks later gold established a new record high. Price then rose by 90%. The current correction began in 2011. It has been 72 weeks since the last time gold was at a record high price. In five weeks we will have matched the 2008 price dip duration. As long as the four 'drivers' mentioned above remain in place, the expectation is that gold will continue its overall rise in price. To take advantage of this trend it behoves us to 'BUY LOW SO WE CAN SELL HIGH.'

Economic Update: Investing, Real Estate, Gold, and Silver

Posted: 18 Jan 2013 12:30 AM PST

Asian Metals Market Update

Posted: 18 Jan 2013 12:05 AM PST

Mixed economic numbers from the USA yesterday in the form of a rise in US housing starts and a fall in manufacturing in December implies that withdrawal of QE3 will not be as quick as the markets initially expected. This resulted in gold and silver paring all their initial losses in the US session yesterday and rising. In case gold has a weekly close over $1685 and silver has a weekly close over $3156 then a rise to $1716-$1755 and $3300-$3530 over the next weeks could be possible.

National Debt Expansion Will Raise Your Taxes Even More! – YouTube

Posted: 17 Jan 2013 11:55 PM PST

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Lindsey Williams How to know When the Economy Will Collapse, Currency Wars and Trade Wars YouTube – YouTube

Posted: 17 Jan 2013 11:51 PM PST

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Bundesbank Wants Its GOLD Back! – YouTube

Posted: 17 Jan 2013 11:48 PM PST

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“Buy Silver, Break JP Morgan” Scam – YouTube

Posted: 17 Jan 2013 11:39 PM PST

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You CAN'T Solve a Massive DEBT Problem by Adding to the DEBT!

Posted: 17 Jan 2013 11:30 PM PST

Forget Swiss Chocolate ? Buy a Divisible Pure Gold CombiBar™ Instead! Here?s How

Posted: 17 Jan 2013 11:20 PM PST

[COLOR=#ff0000][U]Register [/U]to "Follow the [U]munKNEE"[/U][/COLOR] and automatically receive all articles posted CombiBars™ are precious metal bars which are constructed with predetermined breaking points so they can be separated easily without any loss of material. The idea of detachable bullion CombiBars™ came about in the summer of 2010 as a result of the European currency and global banking crises*when more and more investors started to demand a higher number of small bars*rather than few larger ones to increase their flexibility in the event of an economic crisis or to simplify future trading. Read more below about the complete CombiBar™ product offering and their CombiCoins which, incidentally, are legal tender investment coins of the Cook Islands. [INDENT]The information in this post*has been taken from [COLOR=#ff0000]http://www.combibar.com/*[/COLOR]and presented here in edited form for your enlightenment by [B][COLOR=#ff0000]www.FinancialArticleSummariesToday.com [/COLO...

Egon von Greyerz: The Real Move in Gold Hasn’t Started Yet, It Is Still to Come ? Here?s Why

Posted: 17 Jan 2013 11:20 PM PST

[/CENTER] [/CENTER] So writes Egon von Greyerz ([url]http://goldswitzerland.com[/url]) in edited excerpts from his original article* entitled WHY QE WILL ACCELERATE AND GOLD WILL FOLLOW. [INDENT]This article is presented compliments of [B]www.FinancialArticleSummariesToday.com (A site for sore eyes and inquisitive minds) and [COLOR=#ff0000]www.munKNEE.com[/COLOR] (Your Key to Making Money!) and may have been edited ([ ]), abridged (…) and/or reformatted (some sub-titles and bold/italics emphases) for the sake of clarity and brevity to ensure a fast and easy read. Please note that this paragraph must be included in any article re-posting to avoid copyright infringement.[/B] [/INDENT]von Greyerz goes on to say in further edited excerpts: Below I summarise some of the reasons why the real move in gold hasn't started yet – why it is still to come: [*]Gold is not an investment, it is money. Gold is the only honest money which reveals governments' deceitful actions in destroying...

Germany reclaims $36B in gold from U.S., France

Posted: 17 Jan 2013 10:41 PM PST

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US Mint Out Of Silver Coins – Suspends Sales

Posted: 17 Jan 2013 10:38 PM PST

from Zero Hedge:

As we noted earlier this month, the demand for both gold and silver 'physical' coins has been record-breaking as 2013 began. So much so, that now after selling over 6 million silver coins in 2013 so far, the US Mint has run out of silver eagles and has suspended sales. Furthermore, the Mint is saying that it will not restart sales until January 28th! With all asunder proclaiming victory and crisis averted based on the nominal price of stocks at five-year highs, Swiss interest rates no longer negative, and Spanish bond yields at 5%, it seems there are still a few that demand the wealth-preserving safe-haven of hard assets as the escalation of the currency wars shows no sign of abating.

Read More @ Zero Hedge.com

Egon von Greyerz: The Real Move in Gold Hasn’t Started Yet, It Is Still to Come – Here's Why

Posted: 17 Jan 2013 10:25 PM PST

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After having compounded at over 19% p.a. over 11 years, gold certainly should be allowed to just gain 7% in 2012 without some people calling an end to the bull market. Those who believe the bull market is over are mainly the investors who have missed gold going up almost 7 times in since 1999. Let me be very clear, the real move in gold hasn't started yet, it is still to come. Here are my reasons why. Words: 1000

So writes Egon von Greyerz (http://goldswitzerland.com) in edited excerpts from his original article* entitled WHY QE WILL ACCELERATE AND GOLD WILL FOLLOW.

This article is presented compliments of www.FinancialArticleSummariesToday.com (A site for sore eyes and inquisitive minds) and www.munKNEE.com (Your Key to Making Money!) and may have been edited ([ ]), abridged (…) and/or reformatted (some sub-titles and bold/italics emphases) for the sake of clarity and brevity to ensure a fast and easy read. Please note that this paragraph must be included in any article re-posting to avoid copyright infringement.

von Greyerz goes on to say in further edited excerpts:

Below I summarise some of the reasons why the real move in gold hasn't started yet – why it is still to come:

  1. Gold is not an investment, it is money. Gold is the only honest money which reveals governments' deceitful actions in destroying the value of paper money by printing unlimited amounts of it.
  2. In addition to massive increases in government borrowing worldwide, world central banks' balance sheets have exploded since 2007 and now stand at $15 trillion.
  3. Most of the money borrowed or printed has been used to save the banking system and very little has gone into the real economy. In spite of this, the banking system is no sounder than in 2007 and nor is the world economy.
  4. The U.S. government is paying $1 billion per day in interest. If interest increased from 2% to 3% on this debt, the U.S. debt in 2022 would be $35 trillion. If rates went up to the historical average level of 5%, the debt, in 10 years' time, would be $45 trillion. This is with extrapolating current deficits but deficits are likely to accelerate and so is Federal debt.
  5. Fed is indicating that they might stop QE in 2013. That is absolute nonsense. The Fed cannot and will not stop QE. If they did, who would buy the perpetual issuance of virtually worthless government debt that can never be repaid in today's money?
  6. In many European economies, government makes up 50-60% of the economy. In the US it is now 40%. As Governments worldwide, take an ever greater part of their domestic economies, it makes it practically impossible to grow the economy and repay debt for the shrinking private sector. Governments are non-productive and only consume resources. The only thing they produce extremely well is printed money.
  7. Printed money is like heroin, the patient needs bigger and bigger doses until it finally kills him or makes him totally dysfunctional and this is what is happening to the world economy. Government benefits are increasing and the people are in need of even greater stimulus as unemployment escalates.
  8. The banking system has not been repaired in spite of receiving $ trillions from governments. BoA and other US banks just had to pay out $20 billion linked to their MBS (Mortgage Backed Securities) activities. MBS are a part of a $1.2 quadrillion derivative disaster waiting to happen. That will lead to exponential money printing.
  9. The Basel III regulations for banks have been weakened and postponed again. Banks around the world cannot cope with any serious tightening of the rules. Even stocks and Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS)! are going to count against their capital requirements and final implementation is delayed until 2019. Hopefully the banking system will still be there then.
  10. When this crisis is over most people will not have a pension that they can live on. 46% of Americans have less than $10,000 in retirement savings and 29% have less than $1,000. Also there will be fewer and fewer workers to pay for each retired person. The Japanese demographics are horrific with their aging population.
  11. Real unemployment is now 20-25% in many countries including the U.S.. Youth unemployment is almost 60% in Greece and Spain and up to 50% in many countries. This is a major disaster waiting to happen not just financially but also in respect of social unrest, riots etc.
  12. For all of the above problems, unlimited money printing will take place. The problem in the case of the USA is that as markets start to anticipate this, they will dump the dollar which in turn will accelerate the printing presses and lead to hyperinflation. That outcome is virtually guaranteed.
  13. Gold (and silver) will continue to reflect this destruction of paper money but at an accelerated pace. As gold dipped at the end of December and early January, Swiss refiners received major orders and now have unexpected delays in production.
  14. As I have stressed time and time again, the selling is in the 100 times bigger paper market in gold and silver. The physical market is seeing major and strong demand. As more investors ask for delivery the paper market will panic and gold and silver will surge. This is likely to happen within the next 12 months.
  15. For wealth preservation purposes investors must hold physical gold and silver and store their precious metals outside the banking system.
Editor's Note: The author's views and conclusions are unaltered and no personal comments have been included to maintain the integrity of the original article. Furthermore, the views, conclusions and any recommendations offered in this article are not to be construed as an endorsement of such by the editor.

*http://goldswitzerland.com/why-qe-will-accelerate-and-gold-will-follow/

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Related Articles:

1. Gold & Silver vs. Fiat: Do You Live In An Imaginary World Or In Reality?

gold and currencies

Make no mistake about it, it is the central bankers that are leading governments around by the nose, and by proxy, governments leading people around by the nose, and that "nose" is inhaling "lines" of fiat. Unless cured, all addictions end badly, and the only "cure" central bankers have for ever-increasing fiat is, ever-increasing it more. [You can protect yourself, however, by] demanding less of the valueless fiat and keeping, and growing, your wealth by buying and accumulating real value: physical gold and silver.  Anything less, and you are still dealing in the imaginary world that is failing. [This article explains why that is the case.] Words: 834

2. What is Money – Really – and Why Do We Need to Own Gold – Really?

Have you ever wondered what money really is [and why we need to own some gold as a result]? You'll notice that everyone you read has a strong opinion , but who's right? [Let look at the situation and see if we can come to an answer that we both can agree on.] Words: 3086

3. Owning Gold Bullion Can Help Boost Your Global Net Worth! Here's Why

gold-silver

Today's  world is as uncertain as any we've seen in some time. Sovereign-debt crises threaten  major economies in Europe and Japan and the fiscal state of the United States  is the worst in non-wartime history! It's  no surprise, then, that investors are becoming increasingly attracted to the  safety, anonymity and purchasing-power preservation that comes with bullion  ownership. That being said, one of the most-often-overlooked benefits of bullion is its ability to help you  increase your wealth across currencies, so today I'll show you how owning  physical metals — and the most-precious of them all, gold in particular — can help you to boost your global net worth! Words: 896

4. Gold Belongs in EVERY Portfolio – Including Yours! Here's Why

Gold_intro

I like gold because it's a risk-reducing, portfolio-diversifying asset. It's also been a strong-performing asset over the past decade – up nearly 400%. What's more, it's been reliable. In 2008, when the major U.S. indices plummeted 37% (and more into early 2009), gold returned nearly 6%. In addition to being an exceptional investment, however, gold has also been an exceptional investment within a portfolio context. That is, it has provided return while reducing portfolio risk. Gold has, in essence, been a free lunch. Words: 490

5. James Turk: Why Gold is Preferred to National Currencies

6. Race to Debase: How Gold & Silver Have Performed vs. 75 Fiat Currencies

171686-gold-silver-bars

7. Take Note: Gold and Silver are NOT an Investment!

171686-gold-silver-bars

Gold and Silver are not an investment! Let me repeat that. Gold and silver are not an investment! Gold and silver are (excuse the pun) the most "solid" form of money you can possess. Yes, these two precious metals are money!…Don't fear owning gold my friends. Fear not owning gold and silver, especially if you are a saver. [Let me explain.] Words: 795

8.

What are the German Bankers Thinking? – YouTube

Posted: 17 Jan 2013 10:11 PM PST

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Rosen - Expect Stunning $233 For Silver As It Begins To Soar

Posted: 17 Jan 2013 10:01 PM PST

On the heels of the US Mint suspending sales of silver eagles, today 56-year market veteran and analyst Ron Rosen sent King World News exclusively two outstanding charts and commentary for our global readers. This will give KWN readers an important snapshot of of the extraordinary roadmap he sees going forward for silver.

This posting includes an audio/video/photo media file: Download Now

Bank of Japan may pledge open-ended asset buying

Posted: 17 Jan 2013 09:59 PM PST

They might want to get some gold first.

* * *

By Leika Kihara and Tetsushi Kajimoto
Reuters
Thursday, January 17, 2013

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/01/18/us-japan-economy-nishimura-boj...

TOKYO -- The Bank of Japan will consider making an open-ended commitment next week to buy government bonds and other assets until 2 percent inflation is in sight and the economy is on a more solid footing, according to sources familiar with its thinking.

The central bank will also consider scrapping interest it pays on banks' reserves, the sources added.

Faced with relentless pressure from Prime Minister Shinzo Abe to do more to pull Japan out of deflation, the BOJ is expected to double its inflation target and possibly boost its long-running asset-buying scheme at a two-day policy review that ends on Tuesday.

Any steps beyond that, however, would come as a surprise for investors, possibly putting the yen under more selling pressure and further boosting Japanese stocks, which have bolted to their highest levels in nearly three years on hopes of bolder policy measures.

... Dispatch continues below ...



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The Bank of Japan and the government are in final talks on the contents of a joint policy statement they aim to issue on January 22, and both have already agreed on the 2 percent inflation goal, deputy economics minister Yasutoshi Nishimura told Reuters in an interview on Friday.

Governor Masaaki Shirakawa "has been saying that 1 percent inflation would be in sight before long but we have not reached that stage yet," Nishimura said. "If we share 2 percent inflation as a common objective, we expect the BOJ to do something very aggressive."

But it has not been decided whether the statement will include job growth as the central bank's mandate and how to describe the timeline for achieving the inflation target, although it is unlikely to set a specific deadline, he said.

Abe, who led his Liberal Democratic Party to a landslide victory in a December 16 election with promises of aggressive budget and monetary stimulus, has suggested adding job creation to the BOJ's policy goals and making 2 percent inflation a medium-term goal that should be achieved in two to three years.

Both are problematic for central bankers, who argue monetary policy alone cannot achieve those goals and are wary of committing to binding targets and deadlines.

But aware that investors have already priced in the new inflation target and another expected increase of 10 trillion yen ($112 billion) in the BOJ's asset buying and lending scheme -- since October 2010 its main policy tool -- central bankers are discussing other unconventional steps to maximize market impact, sources told Reuters.

One option would be to replace incremental increases in the asset programme with a U.S. Federal Reserve-style open-ended pledge to continue buying assets until the inflation goal is within reach, without setting a deadline for completing the purchases, the sources said.

Another idea would be to pledge to maintain the balance of the programme even beyond its end-2013 deadline, they said.

The BOJ will also consider scrapping the 0.1 percent interest paid on financial institutions' reserves held with the central bank, according to the sources, who spoke on condition of anonymity due to the sensitivity of the matter. That rate has effectively served as a floor to money market rates and kept them from falling to zero.

Such a proposal from BOJ board member Koji Ishida was voted down by 8-1 at the December meeting, but another board member, Sayuri Shirai, said in a recent speech that the idea was worth considering as a way to further push down interest rates and help further weaken the yen.

The new government's push for more public spending -- it approved 10 trillion yen in extra spending last week -- and aggressive monetary easing has helped reverse the yen's gains, setting off stock market rally led by exporters and construction firms.

But many economists warn the stimulus may give the sluggish economy only a temporary jolt at best if Abe's government fails to follow through with politically more difficult economic reforms needed to lift Japan's long-term growth potential.

They also warn that the push to reflate the economy long-trapped in sub-par growth and low-grade deflation could backfire if the new government's medium-term fiscal plan due in mid-2013 fails to convince markets that it can get Japan's ballooning debt back under control.

Shirakawa met with Finance Minister Taro Aso and Economics Minister Akira Amari on Friday to narrow their differences over the statement they aim to issue next week. The ministers are due to fine-tune the statement with Abe once he returns from a trip to Southeast Asia, according to a government source.

* * *

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Opinion Around the World Is Changing
in Favor of Gold -- Find Out Why

When Deutschebank calls gold "good money" and paper "bad money". ...

http://www.gata.org/node/11765

When the president of the German central bank, the Bundesbank, pays tribute to gold as "a timeless classic". ...

http://www.forbes.com/sites/ralphbenko/2012/09/24/signs-of-the-gold-stan...

When a leading member of the policy committee of the People's Bank of China calls the gold standard "an excellent monetary system". ...

http://www.forbes.com/sites/ralphbenko/2012/10/01/signs-of-the-gold-stan...

When a CNN reporter writes in The China Post that the "gold commission" plank in the 2012 Republican platform will "reverberate around the world". ...

http://www.thegoldstandardnow.org/key-blogs/1563-china-post-the-gop-gold...

When the Subcommittee on Domestic Monetary Policy of the U.S. House of Representatives twice called on economist, historian, and gold standard advocate Lewis E. Lehrman to testify. ...

World opinion is changing in favor of gold.

How can you learn why and what it will mean to you?

Read the newly updated and expanded edition of Lehrman's book, "The True Gold Standard."

Financial journalist James Grant says of "The True Gold Standard": "If you have ever wondered how the world can get from here to there -- from the chaos of depreciating paper to a convertible currency worthy of our children and our grandchildren -- wonder no more. The answer, brilliantly expounded, is between these covers. America has long needed a modern Alexander Hamilton. In Lewis E. Lehrman she has finally found him."

To buy a copy of "The True Gold Standard," please visit:

http://www.thegoldstandardnow.com/publications/the-true-gold-standard


Forget Swiss Chocolate – Buy a Divisible Pure Gold CombiBar™ Instead! Here's How

Posted: 17 Jan 2013 09:22 PM PST

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CombiBars™ are precious metal bars which are constructed with predetermined breaking points so they can be separated easily without any loss of material. The idea of detachable bullion CombiBars™ came about in the summer of 2010 as a result of the European currency and global banking crises when more and more investors started to demand a higher number of small bars rather than few larger ones to increase their flexibility in the event of an economic crisis or to simplify future trading. Read more below about the complete CombiBar™ product offering and their CombiCoins which, incidentally, are legal tender investment coins of the Cook Islands.

The information in this post has been taken from http://www.combibar.com/ and presented here in edited form for your enlightenment by www.FinancialArticleSummariesToday.com (A site for sore eyes and inquisitive minds) and www.munKNEE.com (Your Key to Making Money!). Please note that this paragraph must be included in any article re-posting to avoid copyright infringement.

The web site conveys the following:

The German precious metal company ESG teamed up with the German company Heimerle + Meule and the Swiss-based gold bullion maker Valcambi SA to develop the bullion product CombiBar™ and subsequently patented the concept, name and production process. ESG granted an exclusive global licence to produce and distribute CombiBars™ outside the German and Austrian markets to Valcambi.

Valcambi was founded in 1961 and for many years was under the ownership of Credit Suisse until it was sold in 2003 to gold producer Newmont Mining and the former founders of the firm. In 2007, Mitsubishi Corporation acquired a stake in the firm.

In 2011, Valcambi was granted the exclusive licence to manufacture CombiBars™ which are minted according to the Valcambi Investment Product Standard under its own name or with customized logo for large volume buyers.

Banks and precious metal dealers can place orders for 100 CombiBars and more directly at Valcambi sa in Balerna. Smaller volumes may be ordered at the Valcambi online shop at ValcambiGold.com. Valcambi plans to offer their 'CombiBars' in the U.S. market later this year.

The Valcambi SA product offering consists of:

in addition to all  standard gold, silver, platinum and palladium bars as well as coins and medals made of precious metals with either the buyers customized logo or the Valcami  corporate logo.

The advantage of buying their divisible bars instead of buying regular bullion bars or bullion coins is that:

  • resale procedures are much easier and flexible as you can split the material for desired portions,
  • initial financial outlay,
  • flexibility and
  • storage as they can easily be piled up  in a safe or deposit box.

The Purity of their precious metals products are as follows:

  • Gold products ~ 99.99%
  • Silver products ~ 99.9%
  • Palladium products ~ 99.95%
  • Platinum ~ 99.95%

The CombiBars™ concept is simple. To break off individual rows or bars from the CombiBar™:

1. Simply place one row between your thumb and index finger and gently bendup and down.

2. It is now possible to easily detach the row with no sharp edges or loss of material.

3. You can subsequently remove individual 1g bars from the row in the same manner.

 

CombiCoins are legal tender investment coins of the Cook Islands. The face value of each Cook Islands CombiCoin represents 10 x 1.00 Cook Islands dollars. The front side of each individual coin wears an image of Queen Elizabeth II. The back side of each individual coin shows the weight and purity of the coin and a classic fertility theme of the South Sea paradise.

Editor's Note: The author's views and conclusions are unaltered and no personal comments have been included to maintain the integrity of the original article. Furthermore, the views, conclusions and any recommendations offered in this article are not to be construed as an endorsement of such by the editor.

*http://www.combibar.com/

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1. Now Available: Debit Cards Backed By Actual Gold & Silver!

gold-card

Precious metals have historically been excellent ways to preserve one's purchasing power over the long term.  However, in today's world, they do not act well as a medium of exchange. To solve this problem Peter Schiff and his teams worldwide have worked out a totally new service: the first Gold and Silver Debit cards that gives bank customers access to their gold and silver holdings.

2. You Can Now Buy Gold & Silver on eBay!

eBay

eBay thinks there's potential for its marketplace to be a trusted seller of gold, silver and other precious metals and is making a major bet on this vertical as a sales generator via a new exclusive partnership with AMPEX Bullion Center which they introduced just this past Wednesday. Read on for more deals about this introduction. Words: 257

3. BullionVault Has 43,000 Customers: Now They've Cut Their Fee By 37.5% So You Will Buy From Them Too!

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4. These 2 Sites Are the  BEST Places to Buy Gold & Silver Online – Here's Why

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5. What Do Gold Measurements "Troy" Ounce and "Karat" Really Mean?

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The Largest Game Of Musical Chairs

Posted: 17 Jan 2013 09:00 PM PST

by Silver Shield, Dont-Tread-On.me :

The World Bank announcement this week that the US budget fight is sinking the global economy. If the United States does not continue to create deficits, it would sink the world economy, and here's how.

Since the US Dollar is the world's reserve currency and since it is a debt based, fiat currency that must create more debt money every year in excess of the debt and interest or it will collapse in the mother of all margin calls.

Read More @ Dont-Tread-On.me

Commodity Technical Analysis: Gold Extends Gains, Tests Early January High

Posted: 17 Jan 2013 08:31 PM PST

courtesy of DailyFX.com January 16, 2013 04:02 PM Daily Bars Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT Commodity Analysis: The trendline that was broken on Tuesday served as support today as gold took out the January 2nd high. This is important because it nullifies bearish implications from a first day of the month (and year) high. Focus is on the trendline that extends off of the October and November 2012 highs and 50% retracement of the decline from the October high at 1710. Commodity Trading Strategy: Look higher as long as price is above today’s low. LEVELS: 1656 1666 1684 1700 1710 1731...

Guest Post: The Unadulterated Gold Standard Part 4 (Intro To Real Bills)

Posted: 17 Jan 2013 08:24 PM PST

Authored by Keith Weiner,

In Part I , we looked at the period prior to and during the time of what we now call the Classical Gold Standard.  It should be underscored that it worked pretty darned well.  Under this standard, the United States produced more wealth at a faster pace than any other country before, or since.  There were problems; such as laws to fix prices, and regulations to force banks to buy government bonds, but they were not an essential property of the gold standard.

In Part II , we went through the era of heavy-handed intrusion by governments all over the world, central planning by central banks, and some of the destructive consequences of their actions including the destabilized interest rate, foreign exchange rates, the Triffin dilemma with an irredeemable paper reserve currency, and the inevitable gold default by the US government which occurred in 1971.

In Part III we looked at the key features of the gold standard, emphasized the distinction between money (gold) and credit (everything else), and looked at bonds and the banking system including fractional reserves.

In this Part IV, we consider another kind of credit: the Real Bill.  We must acknowledge that this topic is controversial because of the belief that Real Bills are inflationary.  This author proposes that inflation should not be defined as an increase in the money supply per se, but of counterfeit credit.

 

Let's start by looking at the function served by the Real Bill: clearing.  This is an age-old problem and a modern one as well.  The early Medieval Fairs were large gatherings of merchants.  Each would come with goods from his local area to trade for goods from other lands.  None carried gold to make the purchases for two reasons.  First, they didn't have enough gold to buy the local goods plus the gross price of the foreign goods.  Second, carrying gold was risky and dangerous.

The merchants could have attempted some sort of direct barter.  But they would encounter the very problem that led to the discovery and use of money originally.  It is called the "coincidence of wants".  One merchant may have had furs to sell and wants to buy silks.  But the silk merchant does not want furs.  He wants spices.  The spice merchant may not want silks or furs, and so on.  It would waste everyone's time to run around and put together a three-way deal, much less a four-way or a 7-way deal so that every merchant got the goods he wanted to bring to his home market.  They developed a system of "chits" to enable them to clear their various and complex trades.  In the end, all merchants had to settle up only the net difference in gold or silver.

Clearing is necessary when merchants deal in large gross amounts with small net differences.

The same challenge occurs in the supply chain of consumer goods.  Each business along the way adds some value to the product and passes it to the next business.  For example the farmer starts the chain by selling wheat.  The miller turns wheat into flour and sells it to the baker.  The baker turns flour into bread and sells it to the consumer.  These businesses run on thin margins, and this is a good thing for everyone (though the baker, the miller and the farmer might disagree!)  The question is: on thin margins, how are they to pay for the gross price of their ingredients before selling their products?

This is an intractable problem and it only gets worse if they attempt to grow their businesses.  Further, it would be impossible to add a new business into the supply chain.  For example, a processor to bleach the flour might be a separate company.  And then it may turn out that when the bakery grows and grows, that it is more efficient to operate a small number of very large regional bakeries and then the distributor enters the supply chain to buy the bread from the baker and sell it to another new entrant in the chain, the grocer.

With each new entrant into each supply chain, the supply of gold coins would have to grow proportionally.  This is not possible.  Fortunately, it is not necessary.   If there were a means of clearing the market, then only the net differences would have to be settled in gold.  If consumers buy 10,000 grams of gold worth of bread from the grocer, the grocer could keep his 5% profit of 500g and pass 9,500g to the distributor.  The distributor would keep his 2% profit of 190g and pay 9310g to the baker.  The baker would keep his 10%, 931g and pay 8379 to the flour bleacher, and so on up the chain.

The obvious challenge is that the payments move in the opposite direction compared to the goods.  Whereas the wheat is eventually turned into bread as it moves from the farmer to the consumer, the gold moves from consumer to farmer.  The Real Bill is the clearing mechanism that makes this possible.

Without the Real Bill, the enterprises in the supply chain would have to borrow using conventional loans and bonds, which is less efficient and more expensive.  Or else the division of labor along with highly optimized specialty businesses would not be possible.

As we discussed in Part III of this series, everyone benefits if it is possible to efficiently exchange wealth in the form of savings for income in the form of interest on a bond.  The saver's money can work for him his whole life, and he can live on the interest in retirement without fear of outliving his money.  The entrepreneur can start or grow a new business without having to spend his career saving a fraction of his wages, working a job in which he is underemployed.  Everyone else gets the use of the entrepreneur's new products, and thereby improve their lives.

The same analogy applies to the efficient clearing of the supply chain for every kind of consumer good.  This is especially true as new entrants come in to the chain and make the process more efficient (i.e. less expensive to the consumer).  And it is also necessary for seasonal demand, such as prior to Christmas.  Clearly, there is an increase in the production of all kinds of consumer goods around September or October.  Everything from chocolates to wrapping paper must be produced in larger quantities than at other times of the year.  Without a clearing mechanism, without the Real Bill, the manufacturers would be forced to limit production based on their gold on hand.  There would be shortages.

In practice, the Real Bill is nothing more than the invoice of the wholesaler on the retailer.   In our example, the distributor delivers bread to the grocer and presents him with a bill.  The grocer signs it, agreeing to pay 9500g of gold in 90 days (probably less for bread).  It is an important criterion that Real Bills must be paid in less than 90 days, for a number of reasons.

  • First, the Real Bill is for consumer goods with known demand.  If the good does not sell through in 90 days, that indicates a problem has occurred or someone has misestimated the demand.  The sooner this is realized, the better.
  • Second, 90 days represents the change of the season in most countries.  What had been in demand last season may not be in demand in the next.
  • Third, the Real Bill is a short-term credit instrument that is not debt.  At the Medieval Fair, there was no borrowing and no lending.  The same is true for the Real Bill.  The wholesaler does not lend money to the retailer.  He delivers the goods and accepts that he will be paid when the goods sell through to the consumer.  The retailer agrees to pay for the goods when they sell through, but he does not borrow money.
  • Finally, if a business transaction requires longer-term credit, then it is appropriate to borrow money via a loan or a bond.  The Real Bill is not suitable for the risk or the duration.  Longer-term credit means that it is not simply being used to clear a transaction, but that there is some element of speculation, storage, and uncertainty.

What has happened in different times and in different countries is that Real Bills circulate.  Spontaneously.  No law is required to force anyone to accept them.  No banking system is necessary to make them liquid.  Real Bills "circulate on their own wings and under their own steam" in the words of Antal Fekete: The Real Bill is the highest quality earning asset, and the highest quality asset aside from gold itself (incidentally, this is why Real Bills don't work under irredeemable paper—it would be a contradiction for a Real Bill to mature into a lower-quality paper instrument).

Opponents of Real Bills have a dilemma.  They can either oppose them by means of enacting a coercive law, or they can allow them because they will spring into existence and circulate in a free market under the gold standard.  We can hope that the principle of freedom and free markets leads everyone to the latter.

It is not the job of government to outlaw everything that experts in every field believe will lead to calamity.  And those experts should be cautious before prejudging free actors in a free market and presuming that they will hurt themselves if left alone.

In Part V, we will take a deeper look at the Real Bills market, including the arbitrages and the players...

Why is Germany repatriating their gold?

Posted: 17 Jan 2013 08:15 PM PST

by Jan Skoyles, TheRealAsset.co.uk

This week few will have missed reports that Germany is getting closer to bringing its gold investment reserves home. Following questions asked in Parliament in 2012 regarding the 3,396 tonnes of gold bullion, the Bundesbank are set to announce tomorrow a new concept in how they store Germany's gold reserves.

Reported in an exclusive by German newspaper Handelsblatt, Buba intends to remove some of its gold held in New York, and all of the gold held by the Banque de France. Considering various representatives of the German central bank denied claims that they would be looking into repatriating the gold bullion investments, one has to wonder what's made them take such a decision.

When the repatriation issue raised its head late last year, the mainstream media coverage of Germany's actions regarding their gold reserves seems to have an underlying accusatory tone to it. It's almost as if by the Bundesbank openly admitting it is looking out for its own finances, for its own country and its citizens, it is being unpatriotic to the global cause of pretending that a highly leveraged, fiat money, banker-centric, government-spending driven economy is exactly how things work best.

Read More @ TheRealAsset.co.uk

However This Debt Crisis Ends Up, It Will Be Good For Gold

Posted: 17 Jan 2013 08:00 PM PST

by Tim Iacono, Gold Seek:

I don't know if anyone else is calling the debate over the U.S. debt that is now heating up in Washington a crisis, but, based on how the two sides have staked out their positions on raising the debt ceiling and the looming budget problems that will immediately follow in the unlikely event that the debt ceiling is raised in a timely fashion, there doesn't seem to be any reason to delay any longer in applying that moniker.

If the GOP caves on the debt ceiling, this will quickly turn into a sequester crisis and if the sequester crisis is somehow averted, there will be a continuing resolution crisis.

Somehow we're going to have a crisis.

More importantly, however the crisis is resolved, it will be good for the price of gold.

Read More @ GoldSeek.com

THE CHARACTER OF THE MINING SECTOR IS CHANGING

Posted: 17 Jan 2013 07:40 PM PST

The big news for Thursday is that gold formed a weekly swing. Considering that the QE4 manipulation stretched the intermediate cycle way beyond its normal timing band, this weekly swing should confirm that the yearly cycle low is complete.
 

 
We did see profit-taking come into the market as soon as gold tagged its 50 day moving average. I don't see anything unusual in that, as gold has delivered a 75 point rally in only nine trading days. The 50 day moving average is a logical place for short term traders to lock in some profits.
 
On another note, this was the third attempt in two weeks by the shorts to drive gold down. It worked for a couple of weeks after QE4 and even for two days at the beginning of January, but I think the complete failure today to hold gold down against its natural trend is probably the signal that the market has broken the short-term manipulation. I think any further attempt at short-term manipulation and the shorts are just asking to get their head handed to them. Shenanigans are not out of the ordinary on options expiration. So we could very well see another attempt to drive gold down on Friday. If this one fails also, and it probably will if the dollar is falling, then I don't think it will be long before the gold chart starts to look like the platinum chart.
 

 
Next I want to discuss the mining stocks. It seems everyone has an excuse for why the miners have underperformed lately. Needless to say I don't really buy any of that nonsense. However I am as confused as everyone else to come up with a reasonable explanation for why miners continue to sell for these ridiculously cheap valuations.
 
Whenever I am confused, usually the first thing I do is pull up a very long-term chart so I can get a feel for what is really going on, and eliminate the distraction of the day to day wiggles. I think we are all wondering when the miners are going to join the party as it certainly appears that gold and silver both have formed major yearly cycle bottoms.
 
What I saw was quite a surprise. The character of the mining sector has changed completely. For the first time in this bull market miners are forming a rounded base instead of the typical V-shaped bottom. A rounded bottom is a much more powerful basing structure than a V-shaped recovery.
 
If you believe like I do that gold is going to  $3500 - $4000 over the next two years, then I would have to say there is no way it is going that high without taking the miners with it. As a matter of fact, I don't think there's any way gold goes to even $1900 without taking the miners with it.
 
 
The complete loathing & disgust that we are seeing for the mining sector, coupled with the character change in the bottoming process is the setup in my opinion, for a huge move in this asset class over the next two years.
 
I can't tell you exactly when the move will begin, but like I said, I don't believe for a second that gold is going to $4000 without taking the miners along for the ride.
 
For what it's worth, I saw the exact same sentiment in silver back in August of 2007. When silver broke through its last support level everyone threw in the towel. As you can see from the chart that was the exact moment one should have been buying, or if you already had positions, it was a huge mistake to get knocked off the bull.
 
This is just another example of technicals not working in the volatile precious metals sector. I'm pretty sure every technical trader in the world sold when silver broke through that $12 support level. It caused them to miss an almost 100% rally over the next six months.
 

 
If you believe in the bull market, and I think most everybody here does, as I tend to focus on gold, and I suspect that is the reason most people bought a subscription in the first place, then all one needs is the patience to let the bull run its course. If you get sidetracked like the silver traders in the summer of 2007, you aren't going to do yourself any favors.
 
If you are here to ride the bull market, then ride it and don't worry about whether or not you made money today or yesterday. The only thing that makes any difference is how much money you make by the time the next C-wave tops, and that has nothing to do with what happened this week, last week, or last month. It has to do with what is going to happen over the next two years. 

If I'm right about where gold is going then it is definitely going to be worth the hassle of letting the miners complete this rounded base, because the upside once it's finished is huge.

If you don't believe in the bull market then you probably have the wrong newsletter. My goal isn't to make a couple of percent trying to jump in and out of momentum stocks. My goal is to double or triple your portfolio by 2014. However, I can't do that unless you have the patience to hold on through all of the bulls tricks and curve balls. I can keep subscribers focused on the big picture, but patience is something everyone has to learn on their own.
 
I can say that the traders that had it during the last C-wave were well rewarded.

$10.00 one week trial subscription

Gold and Silver Will Protect You From The Looming Financial Hurricane

Posted: 17 Jan 2013 07:14 PM PST

By: GE Christenson What Storm? A hurricane of digital money created by central banks to purchase government debt and other dodgy assets from banks. A tidal wave of deficit spending by governments around the world. It continues, regardless of whether you call it business as usual, stimulus, payoffs, or bailouts. A perfect storm of derivatives [...]

Counterpoint to Goldman Sachs Chief Commodity Strategist

Posted: 17 Jan 2013 06:59 PM PST

By EconMatters

I would be surprised


Today Jeff Currie, Goldman Sachs chief commodity strategist put forth some comments regarding the Oil market.  Jeff Currie from Frankfurt said he wouldn't be surprised "if we woke up in summer and [Brent] oil cost $150 [per barrel]". 


Oil high established 1st Quarter


The counter argument to that statement would be the following: Brent has put in its high for the year in the first quarter the past two years, and actually put in the low for the year in the summer. The reason that oil has put in the high of the year during the first quarter is that oil doesn`t actually trade on the fundamentals. It trades as an "asset class" just like equities, so when funds are piling money into asset classes oil moves up alongside the S&P 500.


Further Reading - Gold Market Dip Buying Strategy 


Middle East Disturbances


A secondary factor is that the last two years the middle east has been used as a catalyst to ramp up investor`s interest on the potential for supply disruptions. But conveniently sold off as soon as President Obama utilized the release and threat of release of the SPRs to counter trader`s ebullience in the futures markets.


Annual Summer Selloff


So the high for the year may very well be put in before option`s expiration in April which usually serves as the high mark period for equities before the summer selloff. There will be some excuse for assets to sell off in the summer. Assets move up carefree and then when they cannot go any higher, all the sudden Europe becomes an issue again, and all assets sell off from copper and oil to equities.



Volatility Comparison: A better Takeaway


Jeff Currie put forward a one month chart of Brent volatility versus S&P 500 volatility, with the takeaway that Brent volatility is near a record low relative to the S&P 500 volatility. Yes I would agree Jeff, but the small sample size of one month when equities sold off hard over fiscal cliff concerns while oil barely budged is the real outlier and the reason for the disconnect.




As Doyle Brunson said: When I put money in the pot, I need to protect my children


I agree with you than normally when the S&P 500 sells off that much going from 1440 to 1385 oil sells off a lot more than a dollar or so. But this was a very thinly traded time in markets, and it was pretty obvious that oil was in the midst of what has turned into an 11 dollar move in oil, and a rather substantial initial position was being heavily defended in the oil markets.


In short, someone had a rather vested interest in not letting oil break like equities on fiscal cliff concerns. I agree Jeff that was unusual, but your takeaway is incorrect, as nine times out of ten, unless there is a break-out disturbance in the Middle East, if equities sell off that hard, oil follows suit.



Holiday Trading=Low Volume in Oil Markets


The real takeaway is why didn`t oil sell off? So volatility should have been the same as equities, it usually is, and traders can do a lot of funny things during the holidays. 


Geo-Political Risk


Jeff supplies another chart regarding geo-political risks near an all-time high. Yes, Jeff but oil doesn`t trade on geo-political risks in general, it trades on risks to supply disruptions specifically. And relative to the past couple of years, actual supply threat disruptions are about medium.


There is always the potential for the next breakout of Middle East tensions, but traders have used these tensions to push oil up, and they all turned out to be overblown relative to actual supply disruptions.


So unless Israel attacks Iran which seems less likely than a year ago, all the other Middle East regions are actually on the whole with regard to major supply hubs for oil, actually in better shape, and much more stable than the previous two years.



Lower Volatility because Oil Markets are well-supplied


But the reason volatility is down in the oil markets is that there is a ton of supply in the markets, markets are in fact, not tight like Jeff states that oil markets will remain cyclically tight for 2013-14, but are actually more well supplied than they have been for the past decade.



Too bad no Chart for "Tight" Oil Supplies


I would really implore Jeff Currie to produce any data which suggests that oil markets are tight for this year, and the next. This statement just doesn't jive with the facts in the oil market. It would be interesting to have some actual data to support this claim that Jeff Currie makes regarding tight oil markets.





I guess tight can be a relative term, but I would point out to Jeff that tight relative to the past 5 years of oil markets is patently false, oil markets are actually more well supplied with Libyan oil back online, Iraq producing more oil than ever before and growing, and the US producing the most oil since 1993, with no major supply disruptions.


The only one being Iran having to sell much of their oil on the grey market, but that oil production decrease has been insignificant.



"Loosest" Oil Market in a Decade!


The Gold Price is Rising and it Doesn't Get Much Better than This Buy Now

Posted: 17 Jan 2013 06:20 PM PST

Gold Price Close Today : 1,690.40
Change : 7.70 or 0.46%

Silver Price Close Today : 31.786
Change : 0.272 or 0.86%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 53.181
Change : -0.215 or -0.40%

Silver Gold Ratio Today : 0.01880
Change : 0.000076 or 0.40%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1697.80
Change : 5.60 or 0.33%

Palladium Price Close Today : 725.40
Change : -0.30 or -0.04%

S&P 500 : 1,480.94
Change : 8.31 or 0.56%

Dow In GOLD$ : $166.27
Change : $ 7.50 or 4.72%

Dow in GOLD oz : 8.043
Change : 0.363 or 4.72%

Dow in SILVER oz : 427.74
Change : -1.00 or -0.23%

Dow Industrial : 13,596.02
Change : 84.79 or 0.63%

US Dollar Index : 79.69
Change : -0.120 or -0.15%

The GOLD PRICE burst through that early December low at $1,684.10 and added $7.70 to end at $1,690.4. High came at $1,695.56. Gold now stands above all its moving averages except the 50 day ($1,695.72). It has broken out of its downtrend line from the November high, and approacheth the downtrend line from the October high. RSI and MACD have all turned up. Volume is rising with price. Buddy, it don't get much better than this.

The SILVER PRICE rose today 27.2 cents to close at 3178.6c, with a new intraday high and a new high for the move off the 4 January low. Screeched to a halt just a gnat's whisker off the 50 day moving average (3200c).

But looky here: eye hath seldom seen, nor ear heard, trading like gold and silver did today. Come open about 8:30, silver gapped down from 3142 and fall clean to 3104.5c by 9:15. Turned around, gapped up a couple of short jumps (I'm looking at a 5 minute interval chart), then jumped clean from 3135 to 3165c in five minutes. Climbed a bit more to 3188.6c, then leveled off rest of the day to that 3178.6c close.

Behold the GOLD PRICE chart, bogus as they come. Early on selling knocked gold from $1,681 by a gap to $1,676. Gold was on the ropes, bumbling and tumbling to $1,666.59 by 9:00. Gold shook it's head, made a tiny gap up to $1,675 (5 minute interval chart, remember) then leapt from there clean to $1,686! And kept on climbing to the $1,695.56 high, and leveled off to close at $1,690.40.

Ladies and gentlemen, this ain't normal trading. Looks like some NGM smarties thought they'd whack gold again today like they did last Friday, but gold turned around and whacked 'em back, breaking a couple of teeth in their jaw. Maybe I'm no more than a natural born fool from Tennessee, but when a market takes a body blow like that, then fights back to close higher -- through heavy resistance -- well, that old dog wants to hunt, and will. Count on it.

Final confirmation that silver and gold posted their lows on 4 January will come with a gold close over $1,725 and silver above 3250c. However, with all the other indicators pointing up, I'm buying the rest of what I intended to buy. Both metals may suffer and labor some more, but the lows are behind us, I believe.

Nearly daily some fearful person writes me about "reporting issues" with silver and gold.   Y'all get this set in your minds: NOTHING need be reported when you buy, unless you buy for more than $10,000 in cash. REPEAT, no matter what anybody tells you, when you buy silver and gold, there is no requirement whatever that the purchase be reported to any government, as long as you don't pay cash. If you pay cash, it's the cash and not the gold or silver that's reported.

Most of that fear about government knowing that you have silver or gold is fomented by salesmen trying to sell you highly over-priced numismatic coins under the the myth they aren't "reportable" or "confiscatable" or sell you something else. Fear boosts sales.

This is not 1934. THEN, gold contributed a meaty part to the 35% required banking reserves. NOW, gold is no longer held in commercial banking reserves, and the reserve requirement is less than ¾ of 1%. Roosevelt had to steal the gold to make his inflation plan work, otherwise gold would have offered to the realizers an escape route out of the dollar.

All the 1934 reasons to confiscate gold have vanished in 2013. You are more likely to be abducted by aliens on your way home tonight than you are to have your gold confiscated by the federal government. Besides, you're not going to turn over your gold to a government agent any more than you'd turn over your assault rifle.

Unless you want your family to starve. (For me, these questions present no moral dilemma whatever.)

One last word: recently a bill has been introduced into the Illinois legislature called the "Illinois Precious Metal Purchasing Act." It provides that a person "who is in the business of purchasing precious metal shall obtain a proof of ownership, create a record of the sale, and verify the identity of the seller."

Some analysts have incorrectly interpreted this. It ONLY applies to people "in the business of purchasing precious metals," i.e., scrap buyers. Further proof is that they would be required to open their records to local law enforcement. Similar laws are already in effect all over the country, and were put in place during the last gold and silver run-up in 1980 to make it harder for burglars to fence their stolen goods. To see the bill, go to http://bit.ly/WoFeoC and prove it for yourself.

Now, take a deep breath and relax. Go home, kiss your wife or husband and children, enjoy a tasty supper, and thank God for peace and rest, at least for today.

The dollar index once again hit its face against 79.80 like a German shepherd chasing a parked car. Fell off and never recovered, losing 12.2 basis points (0.16%) to 79.685.

US$1=Y89.82=E0.7478=0.031460 oz Ag=0.000 592 oz Au.

Other markets -- stocks and metals -- rose all out of proportion to the dollar's drop. Stocks made new highs, higher than last fall. Last September the Dow's high close came 20 September at 13,596.93, but it made an intraday high early-October at 13,661.87, then fell like Jerry Lee Lewis' career after he married a 13 year old. S&P500 made a September high at 1,465.77 and same day an intraday high at 1,474.51.

Today the S&P touched 1,485.16 and at the close had gained 8.31 (0.56%) to 1,480.94 -- new intraday high and new high close.

Dow today reached 13,633.89 and gained 84.79 (0.63%) to end at 13,596.02.

Me, O, my. That bear is baiting his den with the hope of big, big things to come, but stay away from that cave. Once the bear fills it up, he will devour the foolhardy at leisure.

Do not overlook the Dow measured by gold or by silver. Dow in Gold remains below its downtrend line. Ditto Dow in silver. Momentum for both has turned down. Metals will beat stocks.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com
1-888-218-9226
10:00am-5:00pm CST, Monday-Friday

© 2012, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose. No, I don't.

Barry Bonds Lists Estate for $25 Million – YouTube

Posted: 17 Jan 2013 05:51 PM PST

Check our website daily at...

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SLV Just Purchased 572 Tons of Silver – YouTube

Posted: 17 Jan 2013 05:49 PM PST

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How Big Is “BIG”?

Posted: 17 Jan 2013 05:40 PM PST

Wolf Richter   www.testosteronepit.com   www.amazon.com/author/wolfrichter

“Repression” is what Richard Fisher, President of the Dallas Fed, called “the injustice of being held hostage to large financial institutions considered ‘too big to fail.’” He sketched out the destructive impact of these TBTF banks that, as “everyone and their sister knows,” were “at the epicenter” of the financial crisis—“whose owners, managers, and customers believe themselves to be exempt from the processes of bankruptcy and creative destruction.” These banks “capture the financial upside” of their bets but are bailed out when things go wrong, he said, “in violation of one of the basic tenets of market capitalism.”

In his speech, “Ending ‘Too Big to Fail’: A Proposal for Reform Before It’s Too Late,” he offered a “simple” plan that would allow the nation to come to grips with these banks. But in the process, he did something else: he defined BIG.

For example, Dodd-Frank is BIG. Alone its name: Dodd–Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act. The congressional effort to address the nightmare of TBTF “has clearly benefited many lawyers and created new layers of bureaucracy,” Fisher explained. But other than that, it “has made things worse, not better.” It has failed “to constrain” the megabanks’ advantages. “Indeed, given its complexity”—he later called it copious amounts of complexity—“it unwittingly exacerbates them.”

The Act’s “mumbo-jumbo” is spelled out on 848 pages, which “spawned” 8,800 additional pages of proposed regulations, with many more pages of regulations to come. Complying with them would eat up—“conservatively, in my view,” Fisher added—2,260,631 labor hours per year. In other words, Dodd-Frank created 1,130 full-time jobs, assuming they’re working regular hours, not banking hours.

And these 1,130 jobs would be spread over the 5,600 banks that make up the US banking industry. So the burden on each bank wouldn’t be unbearable. But approximately 5,500 of these banks are small to tiny community banks with less than $10 billion in assets. While they make up 98.6% of all banks, they control only 12% of the assets in the banking industry. Another 1.2% of the banks are regional banks with up to $250 billion in assets. These 70 banks hold 19% of the assets in the banking industry. Should any of them fail, it would entail mostly routine “private-sector ownership changes and minimal governmental intervention,” Fisher said.

The rest (0.2% of the banks) are megabanks with assets exceeding $2.3 trillion at the top end. There are 12 of them, and they control 69% of the assets in the industry. But with them, BIG also means complex, inscrutable, and intertwined. When one of them pops, run for the exits--if there are any exits. Due to the “threat they could pose to the financial system and the economy,” Fisher said, they’re considered TBTF.

So how big is BIG? JPMorgan Chase is the largest of Fisher’s “big five” with $2.36 trillion in assets, amounting to 15.7% of GDP. Up from $2.27 trillion a year ago. Getting bigger is their mission. It has $983 billion in “nondeposit liabilities,” or 6.3% of GDP, Fisher pointed out. And it sports a mind-boggling 5,183 subsidiaries in 72 countries!

The other members of the big five: Bank of America with 4,647 subsidiaries in 56 countries; Goldman Sachs with 3,550 subsidiaries in 53 countries, Citigroup with 3,556 subsidiaries in 93 countries; and Morgan Stanely, the baby, with 2,718 subsidiaries in 64 countries. Nondeposit liabilities of the big five amount to 26.3% of GDP.

By contrast, Lehman Brothers was only big, not BIG. In 2007, its total liabilities—not just nondeposit liabilities—amounted to $619 billion. It maintained a mere 209 subsidiaries in 21 countries. Next to the big five, it suffered from an outright lack of complexity. And yet, four years after its collapse, its bankruptcy proceedings are still ongoing.

Which begs the question: exactly how many of JPMorgan Chase’s 5,183 subsidiaries could CEO Jamie Dimon possibly be familiar with? OK, he has people working for him who have people working for them who have a lot of people working for them, and some of them (we hope) might be familiar with some of these subsidiaries and what they’re up to and what they’re hiding in their closets. But how the heck do you manage something like that?

Well, management by TBTF, of course. A new paradigm. Problems no longer matter. TBTF “exerts perverse market discipline on risk-taking activities,” Fisher said, as the “implicit government guarantee” induces unsecured depositors and creditors to “offer their funds at a lower cost to TBTF banks than to mid-sized and regional banks that face the risk of failure.” He called TBTF “an unfair tax upon the American people.”

Alas, Fisher has been up in arms about TBTF since July 2009, without visible effects—other than that the members of the financial cartel have gotten even bigger, even more complex, and even more inscrutable. And Congress isn’t about to change that.

Another powerful cartel, OPEC, however, is keeping a wary eye on Congress. In its January report, OPEC predicts that the US will post the highest oil production increase among non-OPEC states in 2013, while production from some OPEC members is declining—and Congress is playing with a monkey wrench. Read.... Why OPEC Is Worried About The US Congress.

Inflation: What Do the Non-CPI Inflation Gauges Say It Is?

Posted: 17 Jan 2013 05:06 PM PST

So writes Cullen Roche (http://pragcap.com) in edited excerpts from his article* entitled What Do The Independent Inflation Gauges Say?.

This article is presented compliments of www.FinancialArticleSummariesToday.com (A site for sore eyes and inquisitive minds) and www.munKNEE.com (Your Key to Making Money!) and may have been edited ([ ]), abridged (…) and/or reformatted (some sub-titles and bold/italics emphases) for the sake of clarity and brevity to ensure a fast and easy read. Please note that this paragraph must be included in any article re-posting to avoid copyright infringement.

Roche goes on to say in further edited excerpts:

Here's what all the independent inflation gauges have to say compared to the "official" CPI:

1. MIT's Billion Prices Project 

According to MIT's Billion Prices Project [Read: Real-time Inflation Data is Now Available – Finally] inflation is running about 1.7% almost perfectly in-line with the BLS:

2. ECRI's Future Inflation Gauge

The ECRI's Future Inflation Gauge is showing prices at a bit higher level. The index was up to 104 from 98.9 last December. That's a 5.2% increase. Not exactly in-line with the BLS data.

(click to enlarge)

3. Orcam Housing Adjusted Price Index

The Orcam Housing Adjusted Price Index was at 2.84% on the month. That's a bit higher than the BLS data, but not far off.

(click to enlarge)

4. Hourly Earnings % Increase

Meanwhile, hourly earnings are near their lows at just 1.7%:

(click to enlarge)

5. ISM Manufacturing Survey Price Level Increase

The ISM Manufacturing Survey showed a faster rise in prices to a level of 55.5 from 52.5 but it's important to note that this is a diffusion index so prices are relatively benign when kept in perspective.

(click to enlarge)

6. GAO Food Price Increases

What about food prices? According to the GAO food prices are actually deflating year over year at a rate of -0.7%.

(click to enlarge)

7. Global Inflation

What about global inflation? They're almost universally in a disinflation:

(click to enlarge)

8. Shadow Stats Alternative Index

Even ShadowStats, who has been wrong about hyperinflation for 5 years running [Read: Williams STILL Believes a Hyperinflationary Great Depression is Coming! Here's Why], is registering their ShadowStats Alternate index at just above 5%. That's certain to be on the high end of the inflation readings which means, even in the worst case scenario, inflation is about 1.5% above its historical average.

I think it's healthy to remain skeptical of the BLS data. Their readings are definitely on the low end of the spectrum presented here but I think it's also clear that they're probably not far off from the true rates of inflation as most of these readings average out to something resembling the Orcam Housing Adjusted Price Index more than anything else.

Conclusion

All in all, the price data is fairly benign. Certainly nothing worth panicking over.

Editor's Note: The author's views and conclusions are unaltered and no personal comments have been included to maintain the integrity of the original article. Furthermore, the views, conclusions and any recommendations offered in this article are not to be construed as an endorsement of such by the editor.

*http://pragcap.com/what-do-the-independent-inflation-gauges-say

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2. Real-time Inflation Data is Now Available – Finally

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US Mint Out Of Silver Coins - Suspends Sales

Posted: 17 Jan 2013 04:40 PM PST

As we noted earlier this month, the demand for both gold and silver 'physical' coins has been record-breaking as 2013 began. So much so, that now after selling over 6 million silver coins in 2013 so far, the US Mint has run out of silver eagles and has suspended sales. Furthermore, the Mint is saying that it will not restart sales until January 28th! With all asunder proclaiming victory and crisis averted based on the nominal price of stocks at five-year highs, Swiss interest rates no longer negative, and Spanish bond yields at 5%, it seems there are still a few that demand the wealth-preserving safe-haven of hard assets as the escalation of the currency wars shows no sign of abating.

Authorized Purchasers,

 

The United States Mint has temporarily sold out of 2013 American Eagle Silver Bullion coins.  As a result, sales are suspended until we can build up an inventory of these coins.  Sales will resume on or about the week of January 28, 2013, via the allocation process.

 

Please feel free to call us if you have any questions.

 

Regards,

 

Jack A. Szczerban

Branch Chief, Precious Metals Group

Department of the Treasury

United States Mint

Silver Eagle Demand Soars – U.S. Mint Sold Out

Posted: 17 Jan 2013 04:35 PM PST

Demand for the United States Mint's American Silver Eagle bullion coins has been off the charts since the beginning of the year.  After running out of the silver bullion coins last year, 2013 opening day sales of the Silver Eagles were the largest on record with sales of 3,937,000 coins.   First day sales of [...]

How Green Are Gold's Blue-Chip Mining Stocks?

Posted: 17 Jan 2013 04:29 PM PST

Disenchanted with gold's lackadaisical performance over the last year, some investors are losing interest in the equities that are supposed to provide leverage to the metal's price movements. The press has added fuel to the fire by ... Read More...

U.S. Mint sold out of silver eagles again

Posted: 17 Jan 2013 03:57 PM PST

2:50p PT Thursday, January 17, 2013

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold (and Silver):

Mike Zielinski reports at Coin Update that 2013 U.S. silver eagles are again temporarily sold out at the U.S. Mint, likely until the end of the month:

http://news.coinupdate.com/us-mint-temporarily-sold-out-of-silver-eagles...

A nice picture of the coin is still posted at the Mint's Internet site here --

http://catalog.usmint.gov/webapp/wcs/stores/servlet/ProductDisplay?catal...

-- and might be nice to print out for stapling to your SLV share certificates.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.



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and which stocks to buy now

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Join GATA here:

Vancouver Resource Investment Conference
Sunday-Monday, January 20 and 21, 2013
Vancouver Convention Centre West
Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada
http://www.cambridgehouse.com/event/vancouver-resource-investment-confer...

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Support GATA by purchasing DVDs of our London conference in August 2011 or our Dawson City conference in August 2006:

http://www.goldrush21.com/order.html

Or by purchasing a colorful GATA T-shirt:

http://gata.org/tshirts

Or a colorful poster of GATA's full-page ad in The Wall Street Journal on January 31, 2009:

http://gata.org/node/wallstreetjournal

Help keep GATA going

GATA is a civil rights and educational organization based in the United States and tax-exempt under the U.S. Internal Revenue Code. Its e-mail dispatches are free, and you can subscribe at:

http://www.gata.org

To contribute to GATA, please visit:

http://www.gata.org/node/16



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GoldMoney adds Singapore vaulting option

In addition to its precious metals storage facilities in Hong Kong, Switzerland, Toronto, and the United Kingdom, now with GoldMoney you can store gold and silver in Singapore in a high-security vault operated by Brink's Singapore Pte Limited. To celebrate the launch of this storage option, GoldMoney is offering a discount on buy and exchange fees at this vault for any orders above US$10,000 (or the equivalent) until January 31, 2013. Tthe gold buy rate is 0.98%, while the silver rate is 1.99%. Metal exchanges into Brink's Singapore will also be discounted for this period and will be charged at 0.78% for gold and 1.75% for silver. Simply place your order online and the above rates apply automatically until January 31, 2013, 15.00 UK time. To find out more about the new vault, please visit:

http://www.goldmoney.com/singapore?gmrefcode=gata

GoldMoney customers can take delivery of any number of gold, silver, platinum, and palladium bars from any GoldMoney vault, as well as personally collect their bars stored in the Hong Kong, Switzerland, and U.K. vaults.

It's easy to open an account, add funds, and liquidate your investment. For more information, visit:

http://www.goldmoney.com/?gmrefcode=gata


Silver’s Biggest Gains Are Yet To Come

Posted: 17 Jan 2013 03:55 PM PST

I think I am becoming a non-fan of infographics.  Maybe it's just me, but many infographics are getting way too long and complicated.  With that in mind, the latest infographic on silver from the Visual Capitalist is worth a look - they keep the story focused and simple while explaining the investment facts on silver. [...]

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