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Friday, January 11, 2013

Gold World News Flash

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Gold World News Flash


Gold, the renminbi and the multi-currency reserve system

Posted: 10 Nov 2013 07:00 PM PST

Demand for gold is likely to rise as the world heads towards a multi-currency reserve system under the impact of uncertainty about the stability of the dollar and the euro, the main official assets held by central banks and sovereign funds. This is the conclusion of a wide-ranging analysis of the world monetary system by Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum, (OMFIF), the global monetary think-tank, in a report commissioned by the World Gold Council, the gold industry's market development body.

Doug Casey: “There’s Going To Be A Bubble In Gold And Silver, And A Super-Bubble In The Miners; So Buy Them Now”

Posted: 11 Jan 2013 02:00 AM PST

by Tekoa Da Silva, Bull Market Thinking:

I had the chance to speak with chairman and founder of Casey Research yesterday, Doug Casey, out of Uruguay. It was an excellent conversation on markets and more, but due to telephone line quality, only printed highlights of the interview are shared below.

When asked about the best asset class in the world right now for investors, Doug said, "Gold and silver are perhaps the best places to be right now, and I kind of hate to say that, because they've been in huge bull markets for the last 10-12 years really. At this point they're fair value, and I continue buying them. I think a substantial portion of everybody's net worth should be in physical gold and silver at this point, because they're the only financial assets that aren't simultaneously somebody else's liability. There's no counter-party risk with them, and that's critical."

Read More @ BullMarketThinking.com

GoldMoney article: Economics of gold and silver in 2013

Posted: 11 Jan 2013 12:31 AM PST

The following GoldMoney article has been posted here.

The economics of gold and silver in 2013

2013-JAN-06

Image001
The New Year should see some major changes in how gold and silver are regarded in the West, if it becomes obvious that confidence in government-issued money as a medium of exchange might be misplaced. This concern is for the moment essentially limited to economists of the Austrian School.

Whether they are right or wrong only time will tell; but it is worth considering their basic argument, which goes something like this. The role of money in a transaction is to act as the objective element, which is the way people automatically think: hence an item or an asset costs so-many-dollars; if the price changes, it is normally assumed it is the value of the item or asset that has altered, not the purchasing power of the money. The moment ordinary people become alive instead to the possibility that prices are rising because the value of money is falling, the currency is doomed.

This awakening to currency debasement is a gradual process, and so far the only people who really appreciate the danger faced by fiat currencies are that small group who follow Austrian economics. But in 2013 more and more people are likely to suspect it. The underlying reason is central banks are issuing money at an alarming rate. They are doing this for a purpose: governments cannot raise enough money without central banks printing it, and if the rate of issuance became restricted, interest rates will rise and general debt liquidation will ensue.

If we assume that no government or central bank has the strength to face these realities head on, then monetary inflation must continue to accelerate. This is why Austrian economists are worried, as the chart of their favourite measure of money supply, the Austrian "True Money Supply" (TMS), shows.

Image002

It is noticeable how TMS has accelerated since mid-2008 – well above the exponential trend since 1959. So dollar-money has gone hyperbolic, and the dollar is not alone in this trend. The question is how long can this continue before the man in the street realises that price rises are due to the flood of available money relative to the quantity of goods?

The hyperbolic acceleration of TMS suggests we do not have long, and that monetary debasement will begin to affect prices in the high street sooner rather than later: the reasons it has not done so yet is that price inflation is under-recorded and consumers are financially strapped. But it should become increasingly obvious to more and more people in 2013 that money is being debased, unless of course there is a return to sound money.

But sound money and government economics are like oil and water. It will be people, you and me, who will seek sound money when we ditch government money as not being fit for purpose. We will turn paper money into essential goods; and increasing numbers of us can be expected to move our cash reserves and liquid capital into precious metals in the growing knowledge that it is the only way to preserve our purchasing power.

Gold To Dwarf 1970s Move By Smashing Through $6,000

Posted: 10 Jan 2013 11:00 PM PST

from KingWorldNews:

Today the man that has been meeting for the last two years with key foreign governments and sovereign wealth funds told King World News "… I think my $6,000 target (for gold) is going to prove to be very conservative." Also, on the heels of the latest Fed propaganda indicating they would cease QE at some point in 2013, he stated, "… it's perpetual now. There is no stopping it."

This is the second and final written interview that will be released which reveals what is actually taking place behind the scenes with foreign governments and sovereign wealth funds, and how this will impact the financial world and the gold market.

Kevin Bambrough continues @ KingWorldNews.com

Fiscal Cliff Deal May Be Sparking Risk On Rally Into The Undervalued Miners

Posted: 10 Jan 2013 10:05 PM PST

Markets are soaring following the Fiscal Cliff deal reached recently in Washington which continues to raise the debt and kick the can down the road.  It is just what we expected a conciliatory deal that will delay the inevitable for a few months.

Immediately, after the bill was passed by the House, Obama went back on his multi-million vacation to Hawaii after signing an executive order to increase pay for Washington politicians.

The U.S. government is broke, yet the politicians are living "la dolce vita" on the tab of the minority of Americans who actually work and pay taxes.

One of the highlights of the new deal is an extension of the costly unemployment benefits.  Maybe if the extensions were done away with more Americans would actually get back to work?

The World will begin to wise up and realize that precious metals and miners may be the safest place to be as the U.S. is rapidly losing its status as an economic juggernaut.

The dollar and treasuries are reversing lower and may hit critical new lows.  Investors are selling the dollar and U.S. bonds for risk on assets such as commodities and equities.

The long term bond etf (TLT) is breaking below the 200 day moving average. We called the top this summer.  See article titled, "A Major Turning Point For Gold, Silver and U.S. Treasuries".

We may be in the beginning of a hyper-inflationary rally.  There is plenty of cash on the sidelines who may be seeking alternatives in the form of the undervalued commodities and miners especially as the dollar is forming a bearish head and shoulders formation and the Canadian Venture is breaking out above the 50 day moving average.

The bill to avert the Fiscal Cliff did not include any meaningful cuts to entitlements, while taxes went up significantly.  This does not sound like ingredients for an economic recovery.  Do not be surprised with rising interest rates if the inflated housing and financial market to turn down.

Instead, we would use this rally to sell overvalued U.S. equities especially U.S. banks and housing and diversify into the undervalued miners who appear to be bottoming and making positive technical reversals.

Gold, silver and the undervalued miners may be on the verge of a major turnaround higher.  The Venture looks like it may be on the verge of a breakout as it crosses above the 50 day moving average.

China appears to be in much stronger economic shape as easy fiat money is flowing into these growing economies.  The Chinese Yuan and Equities are soaring these past six months since QE3 to infinity was announced at Jackson Hole.  Chinese exports are strong despite a strong yuan which means China may be in the early stages of a powerful rally.

Admittedly the resource sectors have not performed up to par with gold, silver and general equities for the past two years.  Investors have chosen assets such as U.S. bonds, housing and financials as purported safe havens while precious metals, commodities and miners have been beaten down.

We believe this is a counter trend corrective move in a commodity 20 year uptrend supercycle artificially manipulated to shakeout investors from hard assets to enter toxic instruments such as the U.S. dollar, housing and debt.

We may be emerging from a 22 month base.   Long term corrections last about 18 months so we are way overdue for a reversal.  This is bargain time for mining investors with long term horizons such as the Asians.

The time now should be used to accumulate some of the greatest natural resource assets on discount.  Expect large institutions and funds to continue to enter this small sector as the dollar turns lower.

Governments all around the world are flooding the markets with cheap fiat currency to artificially boost moribund economies.  They are not cutting entitlements like they should be doing.  Instead, they are raising taxes and inflating their way out of debt which may hurt any meaningful long term economic growth.

Precious metals will continue to grow increasingly valuable over the next few years as Asia has already begun to diversify away from treasuries and U.S. dollars and increase purchases of gold.

Central Banks in Asia have been buying gold and large sovereign funds, billionaires and mining companies are looking to acquire undervalued mining assets.  Stick with the smart money, rather than following the herd chasing after the latest fads.

Gold and silver may be on the verge of breaking above the 200 day moving average and starting its next leg higher.  Stay tuned.
__________________________________________________________

Only a fraction of my research is published on my free website. Get timely analysis on precious metals, uranium and rare earths by signing up for my premium service by clicking here…     Try it out for a free 30 day trial no questions asked by clicking here…

We will be speaking at the Vancouver Resource Investment Conference on January 21st, 2013 at 1PM.  Register for the conference for free by clicking here… and watch the video below.  This January conference is one of the biggest resource conferences of the year.

Accredited Investors click here…

After Meeting, NRA Says White House Has ‘Agenda to Attack the Second Amendment'

Posted: 10 Jan 2013 10:05 PM PST

by Daniel Halper, Weekly Standard:

After meeting with Vice President Joe Biden and Attorney General Eric Holder at the White House today, the National Rifle Association released a statement saying the White House has an "agenda to attack the Second Amendment."

"The National Rifle Association of America is made up of over 4 million moms and dads, daughters and sons, who are involved in the national conversation about how to prevent a tragedy like Newtown from ever happening again. We attended today's White House meeting to discuss how to keep our children safe and were prepared to have a meaningful conversation about school safety, mental health issues, the marketing of violence to our kids and the collapse of federal prosecutions of violent criminals," reads the NRA statement.

"We were disappointed with how little this meeting had to do with keeping our children safe and how much it had to do with an agenda to attack the Second Amendment. While claiming that no policy proposals would be "prejudged," this Task Force spent most of its time on proposed restrictions on lawful firearms owners – honest, taxpaying, hardworking Americans.

Read More @ WeeklyStandard.com

John Hathaway - 11 More Key Gold Charts & The Big Picture

Posted: 10 Jan 2013 10:01 PM PST

With gold and silver on the move, today King World News is pleased to share 11 extraordinary charts by superstar John Hathaway of Tocqueville Asset Management L.P.. Hathaway is without question one of the most respected institutional minds in the world today when it comes to gold, and his fund was awarded a coveted 5-star rating by Morningstar.

This posting includes an audio/video/photo media file: Download Now

The True Significance of the $1 Trillion Coin

Posted: 10 Jan 2013 10:00 PM PST

by Detlev S Schlichter, Financial Sense:

Under President Obama the debt of the United States government has grown by about 50%, and now stands at close to $16 trillion. Every year, the US government spends between $1.2 and $1.5 trillion more than it takes in. Every day that financial markets are open the US government has to borrow an additional $4 billion.

The pathetic fiscal cliff 'compromise' of last week has proved the most cynical students of the political elite correct in that there is not a snowball's chance in hell that Washington will ever get this under control.

Can this go on forever? No, it cannot — although adherents of the Church of Modern Monetary Theory now proclaim that its holiness, the State, is not restricted by earthly matters, and that no limits apply to it. "It simply prints the money!" Back on earth, however, such recklessness has consequences, and these consequences will ultimately put a very nasty end to proceedings. But politics will not fix this. This much is certain.

Read More @ financialsense.com

Silver Update 1/10/13 Primary Dealers

Posted: 10 Jan 2013 09:36 PM PST

It’s Time To Look At Owning Palladium. By Gregory Mannarino – YouTube

Posted: 10 Jan 2013 09:33 PM PST

Check our website daily at...

[[ This is a content summary only. Visit http://www.figanews.com for full Content ]]

Banks, Gold and Guns – YouTube

Posted: 10 Jan 2013 09:25 PM PST

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[[ This is a content summary only. Visit http://www.figanews.com for full Content ]]

According To The Bretton Woods Calculation, Gold Is Worth $20,000 Per Ounce, January 8, 2013 – YouTube

Posted: 10 Jan 2013 09:08 PM PST

Check our website daily at...

[[ This is a content summary only. Visit http://www.figanews.com for full Content ]]

GATA begins accepting donations in bitcoin

Posted: 10 Jan 2013 08:55 PM PST

10:53p ET Thursday, January 10, 2013

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Thanks to technical assistance from Trace Mayer of RunToGold.com, GATA has begun accepting donations in the Internet currency called bitcoin, though we can't offer U.S. federal tax-deductibility for such donations, nor promise to keep accepting them if the U.S. Exchange Stabiization Fund cracks the bitcoin creation code or the New York Commodities Exchange starts a "market" in bitcoin futures to be controlled by JPMorganChase & Co. et al. To donate to GATA in bitcoins or ordinary currency, please visit GATA's Internet site here:

http://www.gata.org/node/16

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.



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Opinion Around the World Is Changing
in Favor of Gold -- Find Out Why

When Deutschebank calls gold "good money" and paper "bad money". ...

http://www.gata.org/node/11765

When the president of the German central bank, the Bundesbank, pays tribute to gold as "a timeless classic". ...

http://www.forbes.com/sites/ralphbenko/2012/09/24/signs-of-the-gold-stan...

When a leading member of the policy committee of the People's Bank of China calls the gold standard "an excellent monetary system". ...

http://www.forbes.com/sites/ralphbenko/2012/10/01/signs-of-the-gold-stan...

When a CNN reporter writes in The China Post that the "gold commission" plank in the 2012 Republican platform will "reverberate around the world". ...

http://www.thegoldstandardnow.org/key-blogs/1563-china-post-the-gop-gold...

When the Subcommittee on Domestic Monetary Policy of the U.S. House of Representatives twice called on economist, historian, and gold standard advocate Lewis E. Lehrman to testify. ...

World opinion is changing in favor of gold.

How can you learn why and what it will mean to you?

Read the newly updated and expanded edition of Lehrman's book, "The True Gold Standard."

Financial journalist James Grant says of "The True Gold Standard": "If you have ever wondered how the world can get from here to there -- from the chaos of depreciating paper to a convertible currency worthy of our children and our grandchildren -- wonder no more. The answer, brilliantly expounded, is between these covers. America has long needed a modern Alexander Hamilton. In Lewis E. Lehrman she has finally found him."

To buy a copy of "The True Gold Standard," please visit:

http://www.thegoldstandardnow.com/publications/the-true-gold-standard



Join GATA here:

Vancouver Resource Investment Conference
Sunday-Monday, January 20 and 21, 2013
Vancouver Convention Centre West
Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada
http://www.cambridgehouse.com/event/vancouver-resource-investment-confer...

* * *

Support GATA by purchasing DVDs of our London conference in August 2011 or our Dawson City conference in August 2006:

http://www.goldrush21.com/order.html

Or by purchasing a colorful GATA T-shirt:

http://gata.org/tshirts

Or a colorful poster of GATA's full-page ad in The Wall Street Journal on January 31, 2009:

http://gata.org/node/wallstreetjournal

Help keep GATA going

GATA is a civil rights and educational organization based in the United States and tax-exempt under the U.S. Internal Revenue Code. Its e-mail dispatches are free, and you can subscribe at:

http://www.gata.org

To contribute to GATA, please visit:

http://www.gata.org/node/16



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Fred Goldstein and Tim Murphy open All Pro Gold

Longtime GATA supporters Fred Goldstein and Tim Murphy have brought their many years of experience in the precious metals and numismatic coins to All Pro Gold as metals brokers who specialize in the delivery of gold and silver bullion bars and coins as well as numismatic gold and silver coins. Fred and Tim follow these markets closely and are assisted by a team of consultants in monitoring market trends. All Pro Gold offers GATA supporters competitive pricing on all bullion products and welcomes inquiries. Tim can be reached at 602-299-2585 and Tim@allprogold.com, Fred at 602-799-8378 and Fred@allprogold.com. Ask about their ratio strategy and the relationship of generic $20 dollar gold pieces to 1-ounce gold bullion coins. Visit their Internet site at http://www.allprogold.com/.


The Trillion Dollar Coin: The Zimbabwe Dream of the Obama-heads

Posted: 10 Jan 2013 08:40 PM PST

by Gonzalo Lira:

Why do banks spend money making sure that their branches look good and solid? Why do banks spend even more money making sure their main offices look as solid and stately and settled as ancient temples?

Why, to give the illusion of solidity. Because in finance, the illusion of solidity begets solidity—just as the appearance of banana republic-dom begets a banana republic.

The trillion dollar coin idea floating around out there is the dumbest idea ever—but it's also dangerous for two reasons: It is a naked power grab by the executive, and it shatters the illusion of solidity and sense in the monetary system.

Read More @ GonzaloLira.Blogspot.com

Chart This! Critical Fibonacci Retracement Levels – YouTube

Posted: 10 Jan 2013 08:38 PM PST

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[[ This is a content summary only. Visit http://www.figanews.com for full Content ]]

Jobless claims in U.S. unexpectedly increased last week

Posted: 10 Jan 2013 08:36 PM PST

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Marc Faber: Why I’ll ‘Never’ Sell Gold

Posted: 10 Jan 2013 07:53 PM PST

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New Mortgage Regulations Require Proof of Ability to Repay – YouTube

Posted: 10 Jan 2013 07:30 PM PST

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The Gold Price Closed Up $22.50 Closing at $1,678.00 Silver Up 2.21 Percent at $30.92

Posted: 10 Jan 2013 07:25 PM PST

Gold Price Close Today : 1,678.00
Change : 22.50 or 1.36%

Silver Price Close Today : 30.92
Change : 0.67 or 2.21%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 54.27
Change : -0.46 or -0.86%

Franklin Sanders didn't post commentary today, if he posts later it will be available here.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com
1-888-218-9226
10:00am-5:00pm CST, Monday-Friday

© 2012, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose. No, I don't.

Demand for gold predicted to rise in global transition to multi-currency reserve system

Posted: 10 Jan 2013 07:00 PM PST

Beijing, 11 January 2013 – Demand for gold is likely to rise as the world heads towards a multi-currency reserve system under the impact of uncertainty about the stability of the dollar and the euro, the main official assets held by central banks and sovereign funds. This is the conclusion of a wide-ranging analysis of the world monetary system by Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum, (OMFIF), in a report commissioned by the World Gold Council, the gold industry's market development body.

OMFIF Report Summary

Posted: 10 Jan 2013 07:00 PM PST

Demand for gold is likely to rise as the world heads towards a multi-currency reserve system under the impact of uncertainty about the stability of the dollar and the euro, the main official assets held by central banks and sovereign funds. This is the conclusion of a wide-ranging analysis of the world monetary system by Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum, (OMFIF), the global monetary think-tank, in a report commissioned by the World Gold Council, the gold industry's market development body.

Sign the White House petition to audit the U.S. gold reserve and track its ownership

Posted: 10 Jan 2013 06:53 PM PST

8:50p ET Thursday, January 10, 2013

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Jim Sinclair tonight calls attention to a petition started at the White House Internet site calling upon the U.S. government to audit the U.S. gold reserve -- and to account for any surreptitious ownership claims to the gold.

The petition reads in part: "The gold bars need to be assayed and weighed. Once the gold is verified the paper trail must be audited to determine who really owns the gold; i.e., how much has been loaned to bankers and dealers and sold or swapped to non-Treasury entities including foreign governments. The audit must include professional auditors outside of the Mint, Treasury, GAO, Inspector General, and Federal Reserve system."

If 25,000 people electronically sign the petition, the White House is obliged to forward it to policy experts for review and to make a public statement about it.

Of course the U.S. government may be less likely to tell the truth about its gold than to declare signers of the petition to be terrorists and to send rocket-firing drone aircraft after them or have them hauled off to the military prison at Guantanamo Bay, Cuba, outside the jurisdiction of the federal courts and beyond any claim of habeas corpus. But it's a risk we have to take and if enough people sign and the petition has to be answered, clamor about the gold issue will increase.

You never know. Heck, today on CNBC Rick Santelli mentioned GATA as if everybody should already know about us --

http://www.gata.org/node/12101

-- so maybe if enough people sign the petition GATA Chairman Bill Murphy could get invited onto Piers Morgan's program on CNN or at least ABC's "The Bachelor," which has a larger audience.

To sign the petition you'll have to take a few seconds to create a simple account with the White House -- name, e-mail address, and ZIP code -- but don't let that bother you. The U.S. government already has a lot more on you than that:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Total_Information_Awareness

So please consider signing the petition and urging your friends to sign it. It can be found here:

https://petitions.whitehouse.gov/petition/perform-assayed-public-audit-a...

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.



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Fred Goldstein and Tim Murphy open All Pro Gold

All-Pro Gold, run by long-time GATA supporters Fred Goldstein and Tim Murphy, offers its services to GATA supporters and anyone else interested in precious metals. The company brokers a full line of precious metals and numismatic coins. It aims to inform prospective clients about the importance of the monetary metals as part of a diversified financial portfolio and to keep prospective clients current with market trends. All-Pro Gold has competitive pricing and ships promptly to clients so they may have physical possession. Learn more by e-mailing Fred@allprogold.com or Tim@allprogold.com or telephone 1-855-377-4653 or visit www.allprogold.com.



Join GATA here:

Vancouver Resource Investment Conference
Sunday-Monday, January 20 and 21, 2013
Vancouver Convention Centre West
Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada
http://www.cambridgehouse.com/event/vancouver-resource-investment-confer...

* * *

Support GATA by purchasing DVDs of our London conference in August 2011 or our Dawson City conference in August 2006:

http://www.goldrush21.com/order.html

Or by purchasing a colorful GATA T-shirt:

http://gata.org/tshirts

Or a colorful poster of GATA's full-page ad in The Wall Street Journal on January 31, 2009:

http://gata.org/node/wallstreetjournal

Help keep GATA going

GATA is a civil rights and educational organization based in the United States and tax-exempt under the U.S. Internal Revenue Code. Its e-mail dispatches are free, and you can subscribe at:

http://www.gata.org

To contribute to GATA, please visit:

http://www.gata.org/node/16



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Opinion Around the World Is Changing
in Favor of Gold -- Find Out Why

When Deutschebank calls gold "good money" and paper "bad money". ...

http://www.gata.org/node/11765

When the president of the German central bank, the Bundesbank, pays tribute to gold as "a timeless classic". ...

http://www.forbes.com/sites/ralphbenko/2012/09/24/signs-of-the-gold-stan...

When a leading member of the policy committee of the People's Bank of China calls the gold standard "an excellent monetary system". ...

http://www.forbes.com/sites/ralphbenko/2012/10/01/signs-of-the-gold-stan...

When a CNN reporter writes in The China Post that the "gold commission" plank in the 2012 Republican platform will "reverberate around the world". ...

http://www.thegoldstandardnow.org/key-blogs/1563-china-post-the-gop-gold...

When the Subcommittee on Domestic Monetary Policy of the U.S. House of Representatives twice called on economist, historian, and gold standard advocate Lewis E. Lehrman to testify. ...

World opinion is changing in favor of gold.

How can you learn why and what it will mean to you?

Read the newly updated and expanded edition of Lehrman's book, "The True Gold Standard."

Financial journalist James Grant says of "The True Gold Standard": "If you have ever wondered how the world can get from here to there -- from the chaos of depreciating paper to a convertible currency worthy of our children and our grandchildren -- wonder no more. The answer, brilliantly expounded, is between these covers. America has long needed a modern Alexander Hamilton. In Lewis E. Lehrman she has finally found him."

To buy a copy of "The True Gold Standard," please visit:

http://www.thegoldstandardnow.com/publications/the-true-gold-standard


Spot The "Blockbuster" Retail Season

Posted: 10 Jan 2013 05:49 PM PST

In the chart below, the blue bar is Toys 'R' Us retail sales for 2011. Red is 2012. Hence our confusion: just which is this "blockbuster" retail season CNBC's Bob Pisani keeps referring to - the blue or the red?

Oh, and yes, the reason for the collapse in peak Holiday shopping demand, both in the US and around the world, at least according to the company that has been waiting to go public for nearly three years: "December sales were impacted by softness in the overall markets for videogames, electronics and toys, and by the uncertain economic environment in the United States and abroad." That's right: "softness for toys."

Too bad there was no hurricane in December, and that there is no way anyone could blame Bush for anything after Obama won his reelection in November.

But at least, it's always something.

Source: 2011, 2012

Patrick Heller: Bullion delivery delays worsening

Posted: 10 Jan 2013 05:07 PM PST

7p ET Thursday, January 10, 2013

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Patrick Heller of Liberty Coin Service in Lansing, Michigan, this week reports tightening supplies and delivery delays for gold and silver bullion products. "Perhaps the most notable premium increase is in earlier-dated U.S. silver American eagles. The 1996-dated coins, the lowest-mintage year, were already trading at premium prices. Now other dates such as 1986- and 1994-dated coins have developed significant premiums. The primary distributors have apparently already sold out this week's first release of [2013] silver eagles. Those now wanting to make a purchase may have to wait until the next release to take delivery."

Heller's report is posted at Numismaster here:

http://numismaster.com/ta/numis/Article.jsp?ad=article&ArticleId=26340

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.



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How to profit in the new year with silver --
and which stocks to buy now

Future Money Trends is offering a special 16-page silver report with our forecast for 2013 that includes profiles of nine companies and technical analysis of their stock performance. Six of the companies have market capitalizations of less than $800 million and one company has a market cap of only $30 million. The most exciting of these companies will begin production in a few weeks and has a market cap of just $150 million.

Half of all proceeds from the sale of this report will be donated to the Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee to support its efforts exposing manipulation and fraud in the gold and silver markets.

To learn about this report, please visit:

http://www.futuremoneytrends.com/index.php?option=com_content&id=376&tmp...



Join GATA here:

Vancouver Resource Investment Conference
Sunday-Monday, January 20 and 21, 2013
Vancouver Convention Centre West
Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada
http://www.cambridgehouse.com/event/vancouver-resource-investment-confer...

* * *

Support GATA by purchasing DVDs of our London conference in August 2011 or our Dawson City conference in August 2006:

http://www.goldrush21.com/order.html

Or by purchasing a colorful GATA T-shirt:

http://gata.org/tshirts

Or a colorful poster of GATA's full-page ad in The Wall Street Journal on January 31, 2009:

http://gata.org/node/wallstreetjournal

Help keep GATA going

GATA is a civil rights and educational organization based in the United States and tax-exempt under the U.S. Internal Revenue Code. Its e-mail dispatches are free, and you can subscribe at:

http://www.gata.org

To contribute to GATA, please visit:

http://www.gata.org/node/16



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GoldMoney adds Singapore vaulting option

In addition to its precious metals storage facilities in Hong Kong, Switzerland, Toronto, and the United Kingdom, now with GoldMoney you can store gold and silver in Singapore in a high-security vault operated by Brink's Singapore Pte Limited. To celebrate the launch of this storage option, GoldMoney is offering a discount on buy and exchange fees at this vault for any orders above US$10,000 (or the equivalent) until January 31, 2013. Tthe gold buy rate is 0.98%, while the silver rate is 1.99%. Metal exchanges into Brink's Singapore will also be discounted for this period and will be charged at 0.78% for gold and 1.75% for silver. Simply place your order online and the above rates apply automatically until January 31, 2013, 15.00 UK time. To find out more about the new vault, please visit:

http://www.goldmoney.com/singapore?gmrefcode=gata

GoldMoney customers can take delivery of any number of gold, silver, platinum, and palladium bars from any GoldMoney vault, as well as personally collect their bars stored in the Hong Kong, Switzerland, and U.K. vaults.

It's easy to open an account, add funds, and liquidate your investment. For more information, visit:

http://www.goldmoney.com/?gmrefcode=gata


A Record $220 Billion "Deposit" Injection To Kick Start To The 2013 Market

Posted: 10 Jan 2013 04:57 PM PST

When people talk about "cash in the bank", or "money on the sidelines", the conventional wisdom reverts to an image of inert capital, used by banks to fund loans (as has been the case under fractional reserve banking since time immemorial) sitting in a bank vault or numbered account either physically or electronically, and collecting interest, well, collecting interest in the Old Normal (not the New ZIRPy one, where instead of discussing why it is not collecting interest the progressive intelligentsia would rather debate such trolling idiocies as trillion dollar coins, quadrillion euro Swiss cheeses, and quintillion yen tuna). There is one problem, however, with this conventional wisdom: it is dead wrong.

As we explained in "Dear Steve Liesman: Here Is How The US Financial System Really Works", in a day and age when i) the Fed has to step in and fill the void of deposit creation left by traditional bank lending, which has been dead for the past 4 years, via reserves, and ii) commercial banks like JP Morgan can step in and use this deposit excess (i.e., direct fungibility of excess reserves) for investment purposes, a surge in deposits means one simple thing: the banks have more dry powder to invest as they see fit.

Don't believe us? Believe the Federal Reserve of the United States instead:

[B]anks are required to maintain reserves equal to only a fraction of their deposits. Reserves in excess of this amount may be used to increase earning assets - loans and investments.

...

Deposit expansion can proceed from investments as well as loans. Suppose that the demand for loans at some Stage 1 banks is slack. These banks would then probably purchase securities. If the sellers of the securities were customers, the banks would make payment by crediting the customers' transaction accounts; deposit liabilities would rise just as if loans had been made. More likely, these banks would purchase the securities through dealers, paying for them with checks on themselves or on their reserve accounts.

Source: "Modern Money Mechanics", Chicago Fed, 1961

We realize that this is diametrically opposite to what the general public has been indoctrinated by the Fed and its explanation of how excess reserves are used by banks, not to mention by an insolvent federal deposit insurance corporation, because imagine the panic that would ensue if people were to realize that the money they dutifully earn and save, and then deposit in a bank in a checking or savings account where it is assumed to be safe, is actually used as funding for ultra risky trades by firms like JPM's London-based Chief Investment Office (as JPM itself showed precisely happened), for example allowing a bank like JP Morgan to buy the stock or bonds of a bank like Goldman Sachs?

And after all, when one strips away all the different schools of meaningless philosophic thought, and the quasi-religious monetary dogma, in this modern age all money (and reserves), whether low-powered, high-powered, M1, M2, is really just electronic 1s and 0s in some mainframe, resulting from credit creation, either by commercial banks, or by the Fed, either under traditional or shadow bank conduits, which can be repoed, re-repoed, hypothecated, re-hypothecated at a whim, and a moment's notice.

Yes folks: this is money, it is not a philosophy textbook, and money will do whatever it is told, not what some archaic monetary school of thought allows it to do.

So when one puts all of this together, what does it mean from a fund flow perspective?

Simple: the Fed purchases assets on an unsterilized bases, as it started doing with QE3 but especially following the expiration of Twist when it is now adding $85 billion to its balance sheet on a monthly basis, the result is excess reserves, which appear on bank books as excess deposits over loans. Then commercial banks take a hint from the JPM CIO (which in turn was simply caught doing what banks have always down with excess reserves throughout history, and especially since 2008) and use the funds to buy risk assets.

Period. End of story.

Certainly the story that claims "money is on the sidelines" when talking about bank deposits: absolutely incorrect - money sitting in deposits is used by the banks to ramp the market, courtesy of the unwind of Glass-Steagall.

Which is why tracking deposit flow data is so critical, as it provides hints of major inflection points, such as when there is a massive build up of deposits via reserves (either real, from saving clients, or synthetic, via the reserve pathway) which can then be used as investments in the market.

And of all major inflection points, perhaps none is more critical than the just released data from today's H.6 statement, which showed that in the trailing 4 week period ended December 31, a record $220 billion was put into savings accounts (obviously a blatant misnomer in a time when there is no interest available on any savings). This is the biggest 4-week total amount injected into US savings accounts ever, greater than in the aftermath of Lehman, greater than during the first debt ceiling crisis, greater than any other time in US history.

So the next time someone asks you how it was possible with retail investors fleeing the market in droves (see relentless, 24 week straight outflows from domestic equity mutual funds) and putting their money in other assets, or money markets, or, alas, in the "safety" of bank accounts, that the market experienced its biggest move higher ever to start the new 2013 year, now you know.

Oh and thank Bernanke for creating $85 billion in 'deposits' each month which will be used by banks to, what else, buy stocks.

Jim Grant Exposes "The Bureau Of Money Materialization" And A Submerging America

Posted: 10 Jan 2013 04:42 PM PST

Jim Grant spends exactly the correct amount of time (zero) discussing the "urban myth' of the trillion dollar coin in this brief interview on CNBC; instead deciding to try and strike up some intelligent understanding of the dire situation we face. By providing context for our massive 16 trillion dollar debt (360 million pounds of $100 bills), and explaining how exponential the idiocy has become, Grant brings us full circle as he explains to the money-honey that once upon a time our debt was backed by gold, and "there was only so much gold and so many dollars," thus limiting our exuberance, but "now we have neither the gold covering the dollar nor do we have interest rates constraining us [thanks to Bernanke et al.]; the only thing remaining to constrain us is some sort of civil discussion, a numerate discussion about the debt," which it appears the bespectacled and bow-tie-bound bond brain-box hopes is possible. "The debt has increased twice as fast as federal receipts," he warns, adding correctly that "the United States is truly submerging."

Our fiscal problems are enormous and yet the Federal Reserve, that is "The Bureau of Money Materialization," can print money (materialize dollars on a screen), removing the fiscal constraint too; so what we have is a fiscal problem when the underlying problem is monetary.

With the decidely un-Hamiltonian Lew now in charge and a hyprocritical 'bewailing the debt' Obama now wanting no limits, our future is in the hands of foreigners he warns - and the debt markets will only react when they grasp exactly how big a trillion really is.

 

Junior miners cheaper than ever relative to gold, Doug Casey says

Posted: 10 Jan 2013 04:39 PM PST

6:35p ET Thursday, January 10, 2013

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Interviewed by Tekoa Da Silva at Bull Market Thinking, Doug Casey of Casey Research remarks that the shares of junior gold mining companies are now cheaper relative to gold itself than they have ever been. "So if somebody wants to participate in that highly volatile, very speculative space, now is the perfect time to do it," Casey says. The interview is posted at Bull Market Thinking's Internet site here.

http://bullmarketthinking.com/doug-casey-theres-going-to-be-a-bubble-in-...

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.



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GoldMoney adds Singapore vaulting option

In addition to its precious metals storage facilities in Hong Kong, Switzerland, Toronto, and the United Kingdom, now with GoldMoney you can store gold and silver in Singapore in a high-security vault operated by Brink's Singapore Pte Limited. To celebrate the launch of this storage option, GoldMoney is offering a discount on buy and exchange fees at this vault for any orders above US$10,000 (or the equivalent) until January 31, 2013. The gold buy rate is 0.98%, while the silver rate is 1.99%. Metal exchanges into Brink's Singapore will also be discounted for this period and will be charged at 0.78% for gold and 1.75% for silver. Simply place your order online and the above rates apply automatically until January 31, 2013, 15.00 UK time. To find out more about the new vault, please visit:

http://www.goldmoney.com/singapore?gmrefcode=gata

GoldMoney customers can take delivery of any number of gold, silver, platinum, and palladium bars from any GoldMoney vault, as well as personally collect their bars stored in the Hong Kong, Switzerland, and U.K. vaults.

It's easy to open an account, add funds, and liquidate your investment. For more information, visit:

http://www.goldmoney.com/?gmrefcode=gata



Join GATA here:

Vancouver Resource Investment Conference
Sunday-Monday, January 20 and 21, 2013
Vancouver Convention Centre West
Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada
http://www.cambridgehouse.com/event/vancouver-resource-investment-confer...

* * *

Support GATA by purchasing DVDs of our London conference in August 2011 or our Dawson City conference in August 2006:

http://www.goldrush21.com/order.html

Or by purchasing a colorful GATA T-shirt:

http://gata.org/tshirts

Or a colorful poster of GATA's full-page ad in The Wall Street Journal on January 31, 2009:

http://gata.org/node/wallstreetjournal

Help keep GATA going

GATA is a civil rights and educational organization based in the United States and tax-exempt under the U.S. Internal Revenue Code. Its e-mail dispatches are free, and you can subscribe at:

http://www.gata.org

To contribute to GATA, please visit:

http://www.gata.org/node/16



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How to profit in the new year with silver --
and which stocks to buy now

Future Money Trends is offering a special 16-page silver report with our forecast for 2013 that includes profiles of nine companies and technical analysis of their stock performance. Six of the companies have market capitalizations of less than $800 million and one company has a market cap of only $30 million. The most exciting of these companies will begin production in a few weeks and has a market cap of just $150 million.

Half of all proceeds from the sale of this report will be donated to the Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee to support its efforts exposing manipulation and fraud in the gold and silver markets.

To learn about this report, please visit:

http://www.futuremoneytrends.com/index.php?option=com_content&id=376&tmp...


Riverstone Resources Corporate Update

Posted: 10 Jan 2013 04:14 PM PST

Update 1:  GGR comment added at bottom. 

VANCOUVER, BRITISH COLUMBIA - Riverstone Resources Inc. (TSXV: RVS) (the "Company") announces that further to its news release of December 19, 2012, the Company has reduced the aggregate number of incentive stock options granted to employees, officers, consultants and directors of the Company by 493,000 options.  The remaining options are exercisable for common shares in the capital of the Company until December 19, 2017, at an exercise price of $0.62 per share.  All incentive stock options were granted in accordance with the Company's stock option plan.




ON BEHALF OF THE BOARD

"Dwayne Melrose"
Dwayne Melrose, President and CEO

For further information contact:
Investor inquiries:
Don Mosher
Tel: 604-685-6465

Media inquiries:
Ian Noble
Tel: 604-809-8750

Additional information about the Company and its activities may be found on its website at www.riverstoneresources.com and under its profile at www.sedar.com

Neither TSX Venture Exchange nor its Regulation Services Provider (as that term is defined in the policies of the TSX Venture Exchange) accepts responsibility for the adequacy or accuracy of this release.    

GGR Comment:  We do not know the reason for the reduction in the number of options granted, but we do know that we found the amount of options management granted themselves to be offensive.   In a recent Vulture Bargain Update to our Subscribers, we said in part:  "...on December 19 the company (Riverstone) announced they had granted themselves a whopping 4,250,000 stock options at $0.62 per share at one time.  FOUR MILLION TWO HUNDRED FIFTY THOUSAND options.  // That is precisely the kind of corporate action that can sour our goodwill.  Having profitably exited a little over half our stake, we are conflicted now.  ... Riverstone has already paid its way into what we could call Trophy Shares, (our having taken profit on it several times) but we will be looking to reduce our size to just one unit from two as we move forward." - GGR January 6, 2012.  

The reduction today could be a sign that the company has heard shareholder pushback, but there could be an entirely different reason for the reduction.  

Disclosure:  Riverstone Resources is a Vulture Bargain Candidate of Interest (VBCI) and is our fully fledged Vulture Bargain #3. Members of the GGR team may hold positions in RVS.V or RVREF.                  

Draghi Comments; Markets Party

Posted: 10 Jan 2013 04:11 PM PST

[url]http://www.traderdannorcini.blogspot.com/[/url] [url]http://www.fortwealth.com/[/url] ECB President Mario Draghi announced that the ECB, in an unanimous decision, voted to leave interest rates unchanged. Many market observers were expecting a rate cute. The announcement was viewed as an expression of ECB confidence in the EuroZone economy and thus had a devastating effect on the US Dollar with traders rushing to ply the risk trades particularly in the commodity sector, which if you recall the chart I published yesterday, had recently been on the receiving side of a good butt whipping by the hedgies. It is astonishing how rapidly sentiment, and thus money flows, can change in these modern markets. It is like watching an entire business cycle occur within a 24 hour period! Take one look at the following two charts and then you will understand why nearly anything remotely resembling a commodity is higher. Here is the first chart - the Continuous Commodity Index or CCI...

Even on CNBC, call us anything, just not late for dinner

Posted: 10 Jan 2013 03:58 PM PST

5:56p ET Thursday, January 10, 2013

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Commenting on CNBC today about legislation in bankrupt and murder-plagued Illinois to require registration of every gold transaction, Rick Santelli tossed out GATA's name as an aside, as if the organization is known to everyone who pays attention to the gold market. Unfortunately Santelli did so by remarking that "GATA has a lot of conspiracy theories." We're glad of almost any recognition in the mainstream financial news media -- call us anything, just not late for dinner -- but rather than a "conspiracy theory" organization, GATA collects, analyzes, and publicizes public record of manipulation of the gold market, such as the records compiled in the documentation section of our Internet site here:

http://www.gata.org/taxonomy/term/21

Zero Hedge has posted video of Santelli's commentary, which is 2 1/2 minutes long, here:

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-01-10/executive-order-6102-precious-m...

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.



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Opinion Around the World Is Changing
in Favor of Gold -- Find Out Why

When Deutschebank calls gold "good money" and paper "bad money". ...

http://www.gata.org/node/11765

When the president of the German central bank, the Bundesbank, pays tribute to gold as "a timeless classic". ...

http://www.forbes.com/sites/ralphbenko/2012/09/24/signs-of-the-gold-stan...

When a leading member of the policy committee of the People's Bank of China calls the gold standard "an excellent monetary system". ...

http://www.forbes.com/sites/ralphbenko/2012/10/01/signs-of-the-gold-stan...

When a CNN reporter writes in The China Post that the "gold commission" plank in the 2012 Republican platform will "reverberate around the world". ...

http://www.thegoldstandardnow.org/key-blogs/1563-china-post-the-gop-gold...

When the Subcommittee on Domestic Monetary Policy of the U.S. House of Representatives twice called on economist, historian, and gold standard advocate Lewis E. Lehrman to testify. ...

World opinion is changing in favor of gold.

How can you learn why and what it will mean to you?

Read the newly updated and expanded edition of Lehrman's book, "The True Gold Standard."

Financial journalist James Grant says of "The True Gold Standard": "If you have ever wondered how the world can get from here to there -- from the chaos of depreciating paper to a convertible currency worthy of our children and our grandchildren -- wonder no more. The answer, brilliantly expounded, is between these covers. America has long needed a modern Alexander Hamilton. In Lewis E. Lehrman she has finally found him."

To buy a copy of "The True Gold Standard," please visit:

http://www.thegoldstandardnow.com/publications/the-true-gold-standard



Join GATA here:

Vancouver Resource Investment Conference
Sunday-Monday, January 20 and 21, 2013
Vancouver Convention Centre West
Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada
http://www.cambridgehouse.com/event/vancouver-resource-investment-confer...

* * *

Support GATA by purchasing DVDs of our London conference in August 2011 or our Dawson City conference in August 2006:

http://www.goldrush21.com/order.html

Or by purchasing a colorful GATA T-shirt:

http://gata.org/tshirts

Or a colorful poster of GATA's full-page ad in The Wall Street Journal on January 31, 2009:

http://gata.org/node/wallstreetjournal

Help keep GATA going

GATA is a civil rights and educational organization based in the United States and tax-exempt under the U.S. Internal Revenue Code. Its e-mail dispatches are free, and you can subscribe at:

http://www.gata.org

To contribute to GATA, please visit:

http://www.gata.org/node/16



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Fred Goldstein and Tim Murphy open All Pro Gold

Longtime GATA supporters Fred Goldstein and Tim Murphy have brought their many years of experience in the precious metals and numismatic coins to All Pro Gold as metals brokers who specialize in the delivery of gold and silver bullion bars and coins as well as numismatic gold and silver coins. Fred and Tim follow these markets closely and are assisted by a team of consultants in monitoring market trends. All Pro Gold offers GATA supporters competitive pricing on all bullion products and welcomes inquiries. Tim can be reached at 602-299-2585 and Tim@allprogold.com, Fred at 602-799-8378 and Fred@allprogold.com. Ask about their ratio strategy and the relationship of generic $20 dollar gold pieces to 1-ounce gold bullion coins. Visit their Internet site at http://www.allprogold.com/.


Strong physical demand after smashdowns overwhelms refineries, von Greyerz says

Posted: 10 Jan 2013 03:43 PM PST

5:43p ET Thursday, January 10, 2013

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Recent smashdowns in the gold futures markets have triggered enormous buying of real metal, causing Swiss refineries to fall far behind in deliveries, Swiss gold fund manager Egon von Greyerz today tells King World News. An excerpt from the interview is posted at the King World News blog here:

http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2013/1/10_Sw...

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.



ADVERTISEMENT

Fred Goldstein and Tim Murphy open All Pro Gold

All-Pro Gold, run by long-time GATA supporters Fred Goldstein and Tim Murphy, offers its services to GATA supporters and anyone else interested in precious metals. The company brokers a full line of precious metals and numismatic coins. It aims to inform prospective clients about the importance of the monetary metals as part of a diversified financial portfolio and to keep prospective clients current with market trends. All-Pro Gold has competitive pricing and ships promptly to clients so they may have physical possession. Learn more by e-mailing Fred@allprogold.com or Tim@allprogold.com or telephone 1-855-377-4653 or visit www.allprogold.com.



Join GATA here:

Vancouver Resource Investment Conference
Sunday-Monday, January 20 and 21, 2013
Vancouver Convention Centre West
Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada
http://www.cambridgehouse.com/event/vancouver-resource-investment-confer...

* * *

Support GATA by purchasing DVDs of our London conference in August 2011 or our Dawson City conference in August 2006:

http://www.goldrush21.com/order.html

Or by purchasing a colorful GATA T-shirt:

http://gata.org/tshirts

Or a colorful poster of GATA's full-page ad in The Wall Street Journal on January 31, 2009:

http://gata.org/node/wallstreetjournal

Help keep GATA going

GATA is a civil rights and educational organization based in the United States and tax-exempt under the U.S. Internal Revenue Code. Its e-mail dispatches are free, and you can subscribe at:

http://www.gata.org

To contribute to GATA, please visit:

http://www.gata.org/node/16



ADVERTISEMENT

Opinion Around the World Is Changing
in Favor of Gold -- Find Out Why

When Deutschebank calls gold "good money" and paper "bad money". ...

http://www.gata.org/node/11765

When the president of the German central bank, the Bundesbank, pays tribute to gold as "a timeless classic". ...

http://www.forbes.com/sites/ralphbenko/2012/09/24/signs-of-the-gold-stan...

When a leading member of the policy committee of the People's Bank of China calls the gold standard "an excellent monetary system". ...

http://www.forbes.com/sites/ralphbenko/2012/10/01/signs-of-the-gold-stan...

When a CNN reporter writes in The China Post that the "gold commission" plank in the 2012 Republican platform will "reverberate around the world". ...

http://www.thegoldstandardnow.org/key-blogs/1563-china-post-the-gop-gold...

When the Subcommittee on Domestic Monetary Policy of the U.S. House of Representatives twice called on economist, historian, and gold standard advocate Lewis E. Lehrman to testify. ...

World opinion is changing in favor of gold.

How can you learn why and what it will mean to you?

Read the newly updated and expanded edition of Lehrman's book, "The True Gold Standard."

Financial journalist James Grant says of "The True Gold Standard": "If you have ever wondered how the world can get from here to there -- from the chaos of depreciating paper to a convertible currency worthy of our children and our grandchildren -- wonder no more. The answer, brilliantly expounded, is between these covers. America has long needed a modern Alexander Hamilton. In Lewis E. Lehrman she has finally found him."

To buy a copy of "The True Gold Standard," please visit:

http://www.thegoldstandardnow.com/publications/the-true-gold-standard


The World In 2030

Posted: 10 Jan 2013 03:21 PM PST

Authored by Joseph S. Nye, originally posted at Project Syndicate,

What will the world look like two decades from now? Obviously, nobody knows, but some things are more likely than others. Companies and governments have to make informed guesses, because some of their investments today will last longer than 20 years. In December, the United States National Intelligence Council (NIC) published its guess: Global Trends 2030: Alternative Worlds.

The NIC foresees a transformed world, in which "no country – whether the US, China, or any other large country – will be a hegemonic power." This reflects four "megatrends":

[These trends exist today, but during the next 15-20 years they will deepen and become more intertwined, producing a qualitatively different world. For example, the hundreds of millions of entrants into the middle classes throughout all regions of the world create the possibility of a global "citizenry" with a positive effect on the global economy and world politics. Equally, absent better management and technologies, growing resource constraints could limit further development, causing the world to stall its engines.]

 

1. Individual Empowerment and the growth of a global middle class;

 

2. Diffusion of Power from states to informal networks and coalitions;

 

3. Demographic changes, owing to urbanization, migration, and aging;

 

4. Increased demand for food, water, and energy.

 

Each trend is changing the world and "largely reversing the historic rise of the West since 1750, restoring Asia's weight in the global economy, and ushering in a new era of 'democratization' at the international and domestic level." The US will remain "first among equals" in hard and soft power, but "the 'unipolar moment' is over."

It is never safe, however, to project the future just by extrapolating current trends. Surprise is inevitable, so the NIC also identifies what it calls "game-changers," or outcomes that could drive the major trends off course in surprising ways.

First among such sources of uncertainty is the global economy: will volatility and imbalances lead to collapse, or will greater multipolarity underpin greater resilience? Similarly, will governments and institutions be able to adapt fast enough to harness change, or will they be overwhelmed by it?

Moreover, while interstate conflict has been declining, intrastate conflict driven by youthful populations, identity politics, and scarce resources will continue to plague some regions like the Middle East, South Asia, and Africa. And that leads to yet another potentially game-changing issue: whether regional instability remains contained or fuels global insecurity.

Then there is a set of questions concerning the impact of new technologies. Will they exacerbate conflict, or will they be developed and widely accessible in time to solve the problems caused by a growing population, rapid urbanization, and climate change?

The final game-changing issue is America's future role. In the NIC's view, the multi-faceted nature of US power suggests that even as China overtakes America economically – perhaps as early as the 2020's – the US will most likely maintain global leadership alongside other great powers in 2030. "The potential for an overstretched US facing increased demands," the NIC argues, "is greater than the risk of the US being replaced as the world's preeminent political leader."

Is this good or bad for the world? In the NIC's view, "a collapse or sudden retreat of US power would most likely result in an extended period of global anarchy," with "no stable international system and no leading power to replace the US."

The NIC discussed earlier drafts of its report with intellectuals and officials in 20 countries, and reports that none of the world's emerging powers has a revisionist view of international order along the lines of Nazi Germany, Imperial Japan, or the Soviet Union. But these countries' relations with the US are ambiguous. They benefit from the US-led world order, but are often irritated by American slights and unilateralism. One attraction of a multipolar world is less US dominance; but the only thing worse than a US-supported international order would be no order at all.

The question of America's role in helping to produce a more benign world in 2030 has important implications for President Barack Obama as he approaches his second term. The world faces a new set of transnational challenges, including climate change, transnational terrorism, cyber insecurity, and pandemics. All of these issues require cooperation to resolve.

Obama's 2010 National Security Strategy argues that the US must think of power as positive-sum, not just zero-sum. In other words, there may be times when a more powerful China is good for the US (and for the world). For example, the US should be eager to see China increase its ability to control its world-leading greenhouse-gas emissions.

US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has referred to the Obama administration's foreign policy as being based on "smart power," which combines hard and soft power resources, and she argues that we should not talk about "multipolarity," but about "multi-partnerships." Likewise, the NIC report suggests that Americans must learn better how to exercise power with as well as over other states.

To be sure, on issues arising from interstate military relations, understanding how to form alliances and balance power will remain crucial. But the best military arrangements will do little to solve many of the world's new transnational problems, which jeopardize the security of millions of people at least as much as traditional military threats do. Leadership on such issues will require cooperation, institutions, and the creation of public goods from which all can benefit and none can be excluded.

The NIC report rightly concludes that there is no predetermined answer to what the world will look like in 2030. Whether the future holds benign or malign scenarios depends in part on the policies that we adopt today.

The upper chart below shows US share of real global GDP under four 'alternate' scenarios. The lower chart illustrates patterns in the shift in global economic clout across regions (measured in terms of regions'/countries' share of global GDP) in 2010 and in our four scenarios for 2030. The four scenarios are:

  • Stalled Engines–a scenario in which the US and Europe turn inward and globalization stalls.
  • Fusion–a world in which the US and China cooperate, leading to worldwide cooperation on global challenges.
  • Gini-Out-of-the-Bottle–a world in which economic inequalities dominate.
  • Nonstate World–a scenario in which nonstate actors take the lead in solving global challenges.

 

 

 

GlobalTrends_2030 by xxyyxxyy123123

What?s Happened ? and Will Continue to Happen ? to the Value of the U.S. Dollar

Posted: 10 Jan 2013 03:03 PM PST

*[B]"Follow the [COLOR=#ff0000]munKNEE.com"[/COLOR] – Register to receive all future posts here[/B] Technically the U.S. left the gold standard in 1971 but, in reality, we abandoned it in 1913 with the creation of the Fed…setting the stage for the collapse of the dollar. [Given that this is] the 100th anniversary of the creation of the Federal Reserve, it seems only*fitting that we should present a brief history of the U.S. dollar debasement since then.*Words: 1144 So says David Ziffer in edited excerpts from his article* as posted on Seeking Alpha entitled A Brief History Of U.S. Dollar Debasement. [INDENT]This article is presented by[B] [COLOR=#ff0000]www.FinancialArticleSummariesToday.com [/COLOR](A site for sore eyes and inquisitive minds) and [COLOR=#ff0000]www.munKNEE.com [/COLOR](Your Key to Making Money!) for information purposes only. The article may have been edited ([ ]), abridged (…) and/or reformatted (some sub-titles and bold/italics emphases) for the sake of cl...

Gold Is Looking Increasingly Vulnerable ? Here?s Why

Posted: 10 Jan 2013 03:03 PM PST

[B][B]Register [/B][/B]to [B][B][B][B]"Follow the [COLOR=#ff0000]munKNEE"[/B][/B][/B][/B][/COLOR] and automatically receive all articles posted The threats of global recession, insurmountable debt, terrible government policy, central bank support, and many other very persuasive arguments present gold as a very appealing investment or safe haven but all of this is an illusion. Gold was a sensible investment in the early part of the bull market (1999-07), but has now become a false sense of security for many investors who will soon learn the hard way. Not only are the fundamentals already priced in, the technicals severely weakened, and the extremes in gold optimism easily apparent, but the bad news for gold could soon get much worse. [B]The market is digesting, and gold is looking increasingly vulnerable. The next weeks or few months will, hopefully, give us a lot more clarity. [/B]Words: 1170 So say edited excerpts from an article by ChartProphet ([url]www.chartprophetcapital.com/[...

Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts - Economic Goofiness and Competing Crime Families

Posted: 10 Jan 2013 02:51 PM PST

This posting includes an audio/video/photo media file: Download Now

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