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- Harvey Organ: China is the Short Behind Gold & Silver Manipulation
- Harvey Organ: CFTC Can't Release Findings of Silver Probe- End Game is Being Played Out, LBMA & COMEX Near Default!
- Morris Hubbartt: Silver Set to Dramatically Outperform Gold
- CME Lowers Gold Margin By 9%
- Curacao police arrest 3 suspects following dramatic $11.5 M gold bar heist
- Japan's big keynesian plans could push Gold prices higher in 2013
- Readers’ Golden Nuggets Focused on Gold, Resources and Overcoming Negativity
- Curacao Police Arrest Three Suspects Following Dramatic $11.5 Million gold Bar Heist
- Curacao police arrest three suspects following dramatic $11.5 M gold bar heist
- Frank Holmes: Readers’ Golden Nuggets Focused on Gold, Resources and Overcoming Negativity
- Obama states no new deal/Dow plummets/Euro shortfall in Europe may be a harbinger of events/gold and silver fall/ CME lowers gold margins by 9%
- Guyana to achieve 400,000 oz Gold production target
- Austria Mint releases 25 euro Silver Niobium coin
- CME cuts Gold margins by 9 percent
- Gold drops 0.3%, Silver 0.7% for the week
- Brien Lundin: Pick Up Junior Gold Mining Bargains Now
- Silver Juniors
- Cheapest stock markets for 2013 include Ireland, Greece, Austria, Spain and Russia
- Central banks are shifting from greenbacks into gold in a realignment to beat the debt crisis
- By the Numbers for the Week Ending December 28
- Jim Sinclair: The Bright Future of Gold: The Final Solution of the 2008 Monetary Crisis
- Reckless Spending and Soaring Government Debts Should Boost Precious Metals and Miners in 2013
- Gold and Silver Disaggregated COT Report (DCOT) for December 28
- ‘Fiscal Cliff’ Distracts As ‘Fiscal Abyss’ In Japan, UK and U.S. Cometh
- “Gold Market Overhang” Poses Risk of Another Price Fall, Fiscal Cliff “Will See Minimal Last Minute Deal”
- Rising Euro, Falling Dollar and… Correlations Turned Upside Down
- Gold market overhang poses risk of another price fall
| Harvey Organ: China is the Short Behind Gold & Silver Manipulation Posted: 29 Dec 2012 08:37 AM PST The Doc sat down with Harvey Organ again for the 2nd of several interviews regarding the recent massive cartel intervention in the gold and silver markets post the QE4 announcement, the fiscal cliff, the CFTC's silver probe, and the unprecedented … Continue reading |
| Posted: 29 Dec 2012 08:31 AM PST The Doc sat down with Harvey Organ again for the 3rd and final interview regarding the recent massive cartel intervention in the gold and silver markets post the QE4 announcement, the fiscal cliff, the CFTC's silver probe, and the unprecedented 20 million oz of silver still standing for December delivery. Harvey stated that the CFTC's [...] |
| Morris Hubbartt: Silver Set to Dramatically Outperform Gold Posted: 29 Dec 2012 07:36 AM PST Submitted by Morris Hubbartt: This is a ratio chart of silver versus gold, and it suggests silver is set to dramatically outperform gold, in the intermediate term. RSI is close to confirming the latest CCI spike, and the Stokes oscillator at the bottom of the chart is flashing a significant buy signal. A bullish Doji [...] |
| Posted: 29 Dec 2012 07:33 AM PST CME Lowers Gold Margin By 9%  Submitted by Tyler Durden on 12/28/2012 17:07 -0500 Adding to the confusion, for some, that is today's trading session, here comes the CME which in a post-closing announcement, proceeds to hike outright margins on a variety of petroleum and freight products, but more importantly just cut the margins on gold by 9%. Is it that time when the establishment is clearing the path for everyone to rotate out of equities (and/or bonds) into gold, just to set the trap and pull the trapdoor once everyone is once again left holding paper gold? We shall see, but following tonight's selloff, gold is now less than 5% less than stocks YTD. It may well be up to the last trading session of the year to determine who wins in 2012: rock or paper.  Source: CME |
| Curacao police arrest 3 suspects following dramatic $11.5 M gold bar heist Posted: 29 Dec 2012 07:32 AM PST Curacao police arrest 3 suspects following dramatic $11.5 M gold bar heist Published December 28, 2012 Associated Press
WILLEMSTAD, Curacao – Police in the Dutch Caribbean island of Curacao have arrested seven suspects in connection with the recent heist of 70 gold bars worth an estimated $11.5 million. Police spokesman Reginald Huggins said Friday that one of the men is from Bonaire, three are from Venezuela and the remainder from Curacao. One of the suspects was later released while the others are still being interrogated, Huggins said. One of the men arrested is the owner of a local jewelry store, while at least two other suspects were arrested at the jeweler's house. The arrests occurred Thursday and come nearly a month after masked gunmen pretending to be police stole 476 pounds of gold bars from a fishing boat in Curacao. Authorities have not said where the gold was being delivered, but one of the ship's crew members said they were delivering the gold to an unidentified company in Curacao. The gunmen assaulted the boat's captain before stealing the gold bars. Huggins said that security guards allowed the suspects to enter a restricted area thinking they were customs officials. Meanwhile, officials in Guyana said they are investigating whether the gold was mined in the South American country, which is near Curacao. Environment Minister Robert Persaud told the AP that they have requested details about the gold bars, adding that such shipments are usually flown directly to the buyer and involve heavy security. The ship's crew members have said they weren't armed. Both Persaud and Anan Balram, director of Guyana's Gold Board, said that if the gold was mined in Guyana, it would be a clear case of smuggling. "We don't want to jump the gun and say that the gold is from Guyana," Persaud said. "That is what we first have to establish, as well as if the ship many any other stops anywhere else." Officials said there is no record of the ship, named "Summer Bliss," leaving Guyana's Port Georgetown Harbor, adding that it could have left from a pier at any of the country's numerous rivers. Guyana produces roughly 650,000 ounces of gold a year, and officials say that up to half that amount is smuggled out of the country to avoid paying taxes. Most of the gold is sold in neighboring Brazil, Venezuela and Suriname. Read more: http://www.foxnews.com/world/2012/12...#ixzz2GSIJ00uy |
| Japan's big keynesian plans could push Gold prices higher in 2013 Posted: 29 Dec 2012 07:00 AM PST The Liberal Democratic Party is also preparing a multi-trillion yen stimulus spending program to jump start the economy despite having the highest ratio of federal debt to GDP in the industrialized world at over 225%. |
| Readers’ Golden Nuggets Focused on Gold, Resources and Overcoming Negativity Posted: 29 Dec 2012 06:23 AM PST Frank Holmes, U. S. Global Investors writes: The past few days I've been counting down the most popular commentaries over the past year. China, commodities and bond fund popularity were big hits; so were the Surprises in Gasoline, Oil and Resources Stock Prices. Here are the top four. 4. Sell in May and Go Away? Not this YearSometimes it's the headline that attracts readers, and this is definitely one that gained a great deal of attention. More than 7,000 Seeking Alpha readers checked out the commentary and many left some pretty energized comments—some agreeing with me, and others with a differing view. I took on the old adage and argued that there were plenty of reasons for investors not to let their equity positions take a long summer vacation. So how did the S&P 500 Index perform? As shown in the chart below, stocks fell significantly in May, but then went on to have a fantastic summer, with June, July, August and September all remaining in positive territory. One of the reasons I gave for sticking with stocks is the fact that it was the year of an election, which has historically produced positive returns. Since 1972, the stock market has rallied five of the eight election years, according to J.P. Morgan, with market gains of 12 to 26 percent. Only during recession years did the S&P 500 decline. Not only did the summer of '12 buck the trend, but take a look at the latest presidential election cycle. The performance of the S&P over the last four years under Obama has been one of the best over the past 50 years of any president, defying the odds of what many people thought about the market. 3. Love Trade Cools As Central Banks' Gold Demand Heats Up This trend could be potentially significant in the coming years. Last October, I highlighted Franco-Nevada's Pierre Lassonde chart showing the potential increase in gold holdings. Based on the European Central Bank's recommendation to hold 15 percent of reserves in gold, developing countries would have to accumulate 17,000 tons of gold. At a purchase of 1,000 tons a year (or about 40 percent of today's production), these central banks would have to buy gold for the next 17 years! Back in May, I spoke at the Hard Assets Investment Conference in New York. Business Insider posted my slides calling them the "ULTIMATE Bullish Presentation on Gold" and since then the presentation has received 233,141 views on their site, making it our most popular presentation of the year. In case you missed it, you can view all 88 slides. 2. Where's the Beef for Gold Equities? Last week Bloomberg's "Chart of the Day" displayed the same ratio of gold miners vs. gold, going back to September 1993 when the industry gauge was created. As you can see in the chart below, yesterday's ratio of 0.75 hasn't moved much from the year's low of 0.70 on May 15. We see this as a buying opportunity for quality companies as shares of gold miners are a relative bargain to the metal. One of our most popular publications of the year was the Special Gold Report: What's Driving Gold Companies? I looked at the multiple forces squeezing the profits and earnings out of gold miners and highlighted the importance of selectively choosing companies that exhibit the best relative growth and momentum characteristics. 1. How to Look Past Negativity to See Opportunity Many investors have been unable to recapture their lost confidence. Americans have missed out on almost $200 billion of stock gains as they pulled money from the markets in the past four years since the financial crisis, according to a story last week by Bloomberg. I believe this post proved popular because we could all use some good news and positive solutions. I reminded investors to look past the negativity to see the patterns and anomalies that will determine where opportunities and threats lie. Though our political leaders are not instilling much confidence in their dealings with the fiscal cliff and recent tragic events have broken our hearts and weigh on our minds as we wrap up the year, I believe that 2013 will bring renewed hope, optimism and opportunity. I wish you and your loved ones joy, peace and prosperity in the New Year. December 28, 2012 (Source: U. S. Global Investors) http://www.usfunds.com/investor-resources/investor-alert/#.UN77bG9QVSA |
| Curacao Police Arrest Three Suspects Following Dramatic $11.5 Million gold Bar Heist Posted: 29 Dec 2012 05:46 AM PST ¤ Yesterday in Gold and SilverAs I noted in 'The Wrap' in yesterday's column, not much happened during Far East and London trading...and the smallish rally that began at the Comex open got smacked in short order. The sell-off ended at 10:30 a.m. Eastern time...and gold traded quietly sideways for the rest of the Friday session. The high and low ticks in New York were $1,663.60 and $1,652.80 spot respectively. Gold finished at $1,656.30 spot...down $6.60 on the day. Not surprisingly, volume was pretty quiet...around 82,000 contracts. Silver's price path was somewhat different. The high tick of the day came around 10:00 a.m. Hong Kong time...and for the most part, it was all down hill into the 10:30 a.m. Eastern time low...and from that point, silver regained a bit of its losses going into the close. Silver's high tick was around $30.35 spot in Far East trading...and the low tick in New York was $29.79 spot. Silver closed at $30.03 spot...down 11 cents from Thursday. Volume was very quiet at around 20,000 contracts. As was the case on Thursday, both platinum and palladium went their own ways on Friday as well... The dollar index opened at 79.66...traded sideways until the London open...and then spiked up to 79.92 just minutes before 10:30 a.m. in London...which was the London a.m. gold fix. From there it rolled over...and fell all the way back down to 79.61 by 9:30 a.m. Eastern time before regaining a few basis points in the close. The index finished basically unchanged on the day...up 1 whole basis point, closing at 79.67. Nothing to see here. The gold shares rallied a bit at the open...and hit their zenith just a few minutes before 10:00 a.m. From that high, the shares sold off until just before lunch in New York...and then traded mostly flat into the close. The HUI finished the Friday trading session down 0.85%. Most of the large cap silver shares finished in the red yesterday...and that's reflected in Nick Laird's Intraday Silver Sentiment Index, which closed down 1.46%. (Click on image to enlarge) Here's the long-term Silver Sentiment Index to put this past week's activity into perspective. (Click on image to enlarge) The CME's Daily Delivery Report...the last one for the December delivery month...showed that 209 gold and 47 silver contracts were posted for delivery on Monday. The only short/issuer in both metals was Merrill...and by far the largest long/stopper in both was the Bank of Nova Scotia, with 168 contracts in gold...and 39 contracts in silver. The CME also posted the First Day Notice numbers for the January delivery month...and they were interesting. They showed that 677 gold and 299 silver contracts were posted for delivery on January 2, 2013. In gold, the only short/issuer was JPMorgan Chase in its client account and, not surprisingly, the big long/stoppers was the Bank of Nova Scotia with 647 contracts of the total. In silver, the only two short/issuers were JPMorgan Chase in its client account [150 contracts] and the Bank of Nova Scotia with 149 contracts. The lion's shares of these contracts [260] were stopped by JPMorgan Chase in its proprietary [in house] trading account. The link to the complete Issuers and Stoppers Report is here...and it's definitely worth spending some time on. For the December delivery month, there were a total of 3,253 gold contracts delivered...along with 3,922 contracts in silver. There were no reported changes in GLD or SLV...and no sales report from the U.S. Mint. Over at the Comex-approved depositories on Thursday, they reported receiving only 50,834 troy ounces of silver...and shipped 713,199 troy ounces of the stuff out the door. The link to that activity is here. The Commitment of Traders Report didn't provide any surprises. In silver, the Commercial net short position finally declined by a very chunky 8,631 contracts, or 43.2 million ounces. The Commercial net short position is now down to 233.5 million ounces of silver. As of the Tuesday cut-off for this report, the 'Big 4' traders were short 239.3 million ounces of silver...over 100% of the Commercial net short position shown in the last line of the previous paragraph. On a net basis, these four traders are short 48.9% of the entire Comex silver market. Ted said that JPMorgan's short position is very close to 30,000 contracts...so of the 239.3 million ounces held short by the 'Big 4'...JPM Chase is short close to 150 million ounces of that...and I'd guess that the Bank of Nova Scotia would be short around 50 million ounces or more as well. So it's really not the 'Big 4'...it's really the 'Big 2'. On a net basis, the '5 through 8' traders are short an additional 11.5 percentage points of the Comex short position in silver, so in total, the 'Big 8' are short over 60% of the Comex silver market. Of the 37 traders holding short positions in this week's COT Report...two of them are short about 41% of the entire Comex silver market. Any questions so far? In gold, the Commercial net short position declined by 14,470 contracts, or 1.45 million ounces. The Commercial net short position is now down to 18.77 million ounces, the lowest it's been for quite a while. The 'Big 4' traders are short 11.77 million ounces of gold, or 33.4% of the entire Comex gold market on a net basis. The '5 through 8' traders are short an additional 14.4% of the Comex gold market on a net basis. Adding these two numbers, the 'Big 8' are short 47.8% of the entire Comex gold market. Could we go lower in price from here? Sure, as the precious metals markets are still 100% within the clutches of JPMorgan Chase et al. Ted Butler pointed out that even though JPMorgan's short position in silver has declined from 38,000 contracts down to its current level of 30,000 contracts, their short position back in July was only 14,000 contracts...so there's still room to go. But can they or will they? The link to the interactive historical COT Reports for silver is here...and for gold, it's here. The pages can be a little slow to load. Also below is Nick Laird's "Days of World Production to Cover Short Positions" of all physically traded commodities on the Comex. (Click on image to enlarge) Well, it appears that the silver price manipulation lawsuit against JPMorgan is no more. Yesterday afternoon I received an e-mail from reader Michael Anderson...and in it was contained another e-mail advising him of the following..."Unfortunately, last week the Court granted the defendants' motion to dismiss our case. While this is obviously bad news, we are exploring next steps with the hope that there is some way to revive the case." I wasn't entirely surprised. There were two things that always bothered me about it. The first was the fact that the lawsuit was filed at the speed of light...the day after CFTC Commissioner Bart Chilton gave his famous speech...and the second was the fact that, except at the very beginning, the world's number one silver expert, Ted Butler, wasn't part of the litigation process. Ted and I spoke on the phone about this for quite a while yesterday...and he's more of an authority on it than I am. But what he did say was that the case, as presented to the courts, was weak...and JPMorgan's lawyers, who are the best money can buy, buried the plaintiffs. Ted will have much more on this in his weekly commentary to his paying subscribers today...and I'll steal what I can for my Thursday column....which will be the first one of the New Year. I have the usual number of stories for a Saturday...and I hope you have the time to go through them all over this extended long weekend for most. Whatever happens with precious metal prices in 2013...either up or down...is still 100 percent up to JPMorgan Chase et al. CME Lowers Gold Margins by 9 Percent. Liberty Dollars banned at CSNS Convention. Frank Holmes: Readers' Golden Nuggets Focused on Gold, Resources and Overcoming Negativity. ¤ Critical ReadsSubscribeWilbur Ross Sees Recession, Warns of 'Greek' SituationThe U.S. economy faces a recession if the nation goes off the fiscal cliff and key tax cuts fully expire at the end of this year, said Wilbur Ross, chairman and CEO of W.L. Ross and Co. The moneynews.com interview from Thursday comes in print form...or you can watch the embedded 11:08 minute video interview. It's certainly worth your time...and I thank West Virginia reader Elliot Simon for providing our first story of the day. The link is here.  Bank fines top $10 billion this yearFrom laundering money for Iran, to manipulating interest rates paid by consumers and businesses, to improperly foreclosing on homeowners, misdeeds cost the banks a record of more than $10.7 billion in fines this year. When UBS agreed earlier this month to pay U.S. authorities $1.2 billion for manipulating Libor, it capped a record year for bank fines. And the total includes only what the banks paid to U.S. and state authorities, not billions more these global banks also agreed to pay European regulators. Slightly more than half of the fines were related to improper mortgage practices, and most of that money was earmarked to provide help to the victims. As I've stated many times in the past, these fines are just licensing fees...part of the cost of doing business. Until someone goes to jail, fines are a nuisance more than anything else. This cnn.com story was posted on their Internet site very early Thursday morning Eastern time...and I thank Washington state reader S.A. for finding it for us. The link is here.  AP IMPACT: Ordinary Folks Losing Faith In StocksAndrew Neitlich is the last person you'd expect to be rattled by the stock market. He once worked as a financial analyst picking stocks for a mutual fund. He has huddled with dozens of CEOs in his current career as an executive coach. During the dot-com crash 12 years ago, he kept his wits and did not sell. But he's selling now. "You have to trust your government. You have to trust other governments. You have to trust Wall Street," says Neitlich, 47. "And I don't trust any of these." Defying decades of investment history, ordinary Americans are selling stocks for a fifth year in a row. The selling has not let up despite unprecedented measures by the Federal Reserve to persuade people to buy and the come-hither allure of a levitating market. Stock prices have doubled from March 2009, their low point during the Great Recession. This long AP story was posted over at the npr.org Internet site on Wednesday...and is another contribution from Elliot Simon. The link is here.  In 2012, Many Felt the Market Was RiggedIn 2012, investors' long-harbored suspicion that the stock market was a rigged game became something of a majority opinion. This year, exasperation over the predominantly electronic mechanics of trading stocks, in which hyper-fast computer algorithms maneuver against one another for fractions of pennies collected over microseconds, boiled over. The level of disgust has gotten broad enough, in fact, that authorities might be prepared to rethink some of the basic rules and processes driving the system. The opaque and complex structure for trading stocks electronically across dozens of exchanges and alternative networks has long been justified by industry leaders and regulators as the messy but logical result of investor-friendly reforms. Technology has enabled mind-melting speed, unfathomable communications capacity and brutal competition for order flow – all of which have made trading cheaper and faster than ever. Yet by squeezing out traditional market makers who once collected low-risk, protected profits by mediating among buyers and sellers, rules and technology have tilted the power toward "high-frequency traders." And in 2012, the fragility produced by so much layered complexity became too obvious, and produced too many market-jarring failures, to be considered merely the price of progress. This story was posted on the Yahoo! Finance website on the day before Christmas...and I found it yesterday's edition of the King Report. It's worth skimming...and the link is here.  Doug Noland: 2012...the Year in Review: The Fiscal Cliff...Down to the Wire"Within our mandate, the ECB is ready to do whatever it takes to preserve the euro. And believe me, it will be enough." Mario Draghi, president of the European Central Bank, July 26, 2012 Having singlehandedly altered the course of the European crisis, the Financial Times named Mr. Draghi "FT Person of the Year." Yet "Super Mario" was anything but acting alone. The emboldened Bernanke Fed soon followed Draghi's bold pronouncement with its own daring commitment to open-ended quantitative easing (in a non-crisis environment!). All throughout 2012, extraordinary monetary easings were announced by central banks around the globe. I will this evening announce the distinguished 2012 "CBB Thing of the Year" recipient: congratulations to Endless Free "Money." In my Issues 2012 piece from early-January, I posited that 2012 was a "Bubble year." The Bubble might burst, with an expanding European crisis as a probable catalyst. But if it persevered one could expect the potent Bubble to broaden and excesses to intensify. I referred to bipolar outcome possibilities – so-called left and right "tail risks." With Spain's 10-yr yields reaching 7.6% and Italy's approaching 6.6% - along with the euro sinking to almost 1.20 to the dollar - in late-July, the European crisis was indeed spiraling out of control. Capital flight in/from Europe and the emerging markets was becoming a serious issue. A crisis of confidence in the European banking system was in the offing. The world economy was weakening rapidly, and the global Credit system was on the brink of a destabilizing bout of de-risking/de-leveraging. Doug's year-end review is on the longish side, but his Friday missives are always must reads as far as I'm concerned...and this one is no different. I found it over on the prudentbear.com Internet site last evening...and the link is here.  Bloomberg Editorial: Better Nuclear Bombs for a Safer WorldCuracao police arrest three suspects following dramatic $11.5 M gold bar heist Posted: 29 Dec 2012 05:46 AM PST  Police in the Dutch Caribbean island of Curacao have arrested seven suspects in connection with the recent heist of 70 gold bars worth an estimated $11.5 million. Police spokesman Reginald Huggins said Friday that one of the men is from Bonaire, three are from Venezuela and the remainder from Curacao. One of the suspects was later released while the others are still being interrogated, Huggins said. One of the men arrested is the owner of a local jewelry store, while at least two other suspects were arrested at the jeweler's house. The arrests occurred Thursday and come nearly a month after masked gunmen pretending to be police stole 476 pounds of gold bars from a fishing boat in Curacao. |
| Frank Holmes: Readers’ Golden Nuggets Focused on Gold, Resources and Overcoming Negativity Posted: 29 Dec 2012 05:46 AM PST  Frank itemizes four of the most popular commentaries over the past year...and the precious metals is covered in Item 3...Love Trade Cools as Central Banks' Gold Demand Heats Up...which is a short scroll down from the top. It was posted on the usfunds.com Internet site on Friday...and is courtesy of Elliot Simon...and it's his last offering in today's column. The link is here. |
| Posted: 29 Dec 2012 05:05 AM PST This posting includes an audio/video/photo media file: Download Now |
| Guyana to achieve 400,000 oz Gold production target Posted: 29 Dec 2012 05:02 AM PST Last year, Guyana's gold production exceeded target last year to hit 363,083 ounces, climbed 14 percent from the set target of 320,000 ounces in 2011. |
| Austria Mint releases 25 euro Silver Niobium coin Posted: 29 Dec 2012 03:00 AM PST The 2013 Tunnel Construction 25 Euro Coin features a present-day runnel boring machine positioned within the ice blue niobium core. |
| CME cuts Gold margins by 9 percent Posted: 29 Dec 2012 02:58 AM PST Exchanges require market participants to post margins to cover potential losses in trading sessions. |
| Gold drops 0.3%, Silver 0.7% for the week Posted: 29 Dec 2012 02:32 AM PST Gold for February delivery fell $7.80, or 0.4%, to settle at $1,656.30 an ounce on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange. |
| Brien Lundin: Pick Up Junior Gold Mining Bargains Now Posted: 29 Dec 2012 01:33 AM PST By The Gold Report: The past year was a very tough one for the junior gold mining sector. In this interview with The Gold Report, Brien Lundin, CEO of Jefferson Financial, says that the past year has, in fact, put many gold mining companies on the bargain basement shelf. He shares some advice on end-of-year portfolio repositions and talks about some of his favorite stocks that he believes are poised for a rebound in 2013. The Gold Report: Brien, in late October you and your company Jefferson Financial hosted the New Orleans Investment Conference. What were some of the commodity-related themes consistently making the rounds there? Brien Lundin: The buzz was that the underlying fundamentals for precious metals would remain bullish regardless of who won the election. But if President Obama were re-elected, then all of the factors favoring gold and silver would become dramatically more bullish. TGR: You Complete Story » |
| Posted: 28 Dec 2012 11:20 PM PST Zealllc |
| Cheapest stock markets for 2013 include Ireland, Greece, Austria, Spain and Russia Posted: 28 Dec 2012 10:51 PM PST Astute Internet commentator Mike Swanson looks at the prospects for 2013 and concludes that the US financial markets will continue to be frustrating and that the larger returns will come in the currently bombed out stock markets of Europe that are being overlooked right now. Could the US dollar also be on the way down? Take a deep breath and invest in Ireland, Greece, Austria, Spain and Russia for the highest returns… |
| Central banks are shifting from greenbacks into gold in a realignment to beat the debt crisis Posted: 28 Dec 2012 09:58 PM PST Why would some global central banks actually want the price of gold to rise? Well they hold a lot of it on their balance sheets and in order to balance their assets against their rising liabilities one way to achieve this is to allow the price of gold to go up. So inflate away the debts of the world by allowing the price of gold to increase? It is not as mad as it sounds. If you want to reset the global financial system this is one method of achieving it: tie the currencies of the world more closely to gold. It worked before for several hundred years. Ex-Fed initiative? You could not imagine the US Federal Reserve leading this, but the central banks of China, Russia and Europe? It is not so outlandish at all. The Chinese have a stated policy of doubling their gold reserves over the next three years and have supported the IMF's plan for Special Drawing Rights including gold as a new global currency. Perhaps we should approach this from another direction. How likely is it that the US dollar will continue to remain the reserve currency of global trade with the Fed now committed to QE to infinity and a much lower US dollar? If the present foreign holders of the greenback sign up to this future scenario then they are going to pay off US debts through dollar devaluation. Do they want to do this? Most probably not and that is why so many central banks are again net buyers of gold whereas they were net sellers a few years back. Gold and US debt For gold bugs this is something of an ideal scenario. Both the global central banks down to the small investor are planning for a dollar collapse as the mounting debts over power the once almighty US financial system. By doing so they make it more likely and drive up the price of gold in the process. However, if this thesis is proven correct then the new price of gold will not be a transient one but a permanent feature of the financial system. There is not enough gold, and even less silver to go around and many predict that $5-10,000 an ounce for gold and $200-500 silver will be reached if the precious metals are to take on this role again. It's a price the world will have to pay for sound money and an end to the financial instability of recent years, not that we have seen the end of that just yet. |
| By the Numbers for the Week Ending December 28 Posted: 28 Dec 2012 07:54 PM PST This week's closing table is just below. Vultures, (Got Gold Report Subscribers) please note that updates to our linked technical charts, including our comments about the COT reports and the week's technical changes, should be completed by the usual time on Sunday (by 18:00 ET). |
| Jim Sinclair: The Bright Future of Gold: The Final Solution of the 2008 Monetary Crisis Posted: 28 Dec 2012 07:37 PM PST Jim Sinclair, the man who predicted gold would reach $1650/oz over a decade ago sent an email alert to subscribers tonight, stating that the Euro-zone, Russia, and China will determine the future of gold, as the financial power has shifted from the US and UK to the East. Sinclair also states that the purpose of [...] |
| Reckless Spending and Soaring Government Debts Should Boost Precious Metals and Miners in 2013 Posted: 28 Dec 2012 01:17 PM PST We are still climbing the wall of worry as wealth in the ground metals becomes increasingly cheaper in a world that is threatened with the ghosts of depressions and deflations past. We observe the doubters who regale us with the view that the miners are underperforming bullion and the general equities. They claim that housing, financials and the dollar has bottomed. We disagree and believe gold (GLD), silver (SLV) and the undervalued gold (GDXJ), silver (SIL), uranium (URA) and rare earth miners (REMX) may be bottoming and a reversal may occur in 2013. The world is navigating troubled financial waters. Over the past decade Central Banks have injected a flood of dollars into an ailing fiscal system. The result of a flood of bailouts and entitlements has been a short term bounce in the toxic sectors of U.S. debt (TLT), real estate (XHB) and financials (XLF) as the Fed artificially manipulates the price by printing dollars (UUP) to buy these troubled assets. Gold and silver bullion appears to be bouncing off of strong support, while the U.S. dollar is forming a bearish head and shoulders pattern. The elites of the west possess all they need for the wives, children and grandchildren to live in splendor. They are trying to solve fiscal malignancies with fiat dollars, which is destroying savers who are getting negative returns at the local bank. In due time, these commodities which are low priced will come back into vogue. In order to be right in the market, the majority has to believe you are wrong. Great investors like Livermore and Baruch were able to have confidence to hold on even when the positions were not popular.  |
| Gold and Silver Disaggregated COT Report (DCOT) for December 28 Posted: 28 Dec 2012 12:42 PM PST HOUSTON -- This week's Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) disaggregated commitments of traders (DCOT) report was released at 15:30 ET Friday. Our recap of the changes in weekly positioning by the disaggregated trader classes, as compiled by the CFTC, is just below. In the DCOT table above a net short position shows as a negative figure in red. A net long position shows in black. In the Change column, a negative number indicates either an increase to an existing net short position or a reduction of a net long position. A black figure in the Change column indicates an increase to an existing long position or a reduction of an existing net short position. The way to think of it is that black figures in the Change column are traders getting "longer" and red figures are traders getting less long or shorter. All of the trader's positions are calculated net of spreading contracts as of the Tuesday disaggregated COT report. |
| ‘Fiscal Cliff’ Distracts As ‘Fiscal Abyss’ In Japan, UK and U.S. Cometh Posted: 28 Dec 2012 12:05 PM PST Our friends at Stephen Flood's GoldCore write: Gold pared back early gains and edged down on Friday and tick tock goes the US "fiscal cliff" clock as time is running out for the somewhat irrelevant New Year's deadline. Gold bullion prices are on target for their first weekly gain in a month after the sharp fall in December (-3%) led to bargain hunters buying the dip. Gold bottomed on December 29th last year prior to very strong gains in January 2012 and we believe a similar pattern may be seen again this year. The yellow metal looks set to rack up its 12th straight year of gains on low to zero interest rates, concerns of the eurozone debt crisis and diversification into bullion by central banks. 2013 should see global gold demand grow on further strength from China and a recovery in India, helping the precious metal continue its bull run into its 13th year, according to the World Gold Council. U.S. CFTC commitment of traders' data is at 1930 GMT today.President Obama meets congressional leaders from both parties regarding the fiscal cliff and if a deal isn't struck it will likely fuel safe haven buying of gold. Negotiations to avert the 'fiscal cliff' offer great political drama, but they won't solve America's looming budget and debt crisis and may cast the nation into another recession or worse. A deal is likely to be done but any deal will be another cynical exercise of kicking the can down the road while failing again to address the root causes of the debt crisis which is too much debt at all levels of American society.
The political and media side show that is the so-called "fiscal cliff" will soon be overshadowed by the appalling and rapidly deteriorating situation regarding the U.S. national debt. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner has alerted Congress that the nation will once again hit the debt ceiling on Monday, but that his department can take "extraordinary measures" to keep paying the bills for another few months. Incredibly, the debt ceiling was raised from $14.294 trillion in August 2011, to its current level of $16.394 trillion. Thus in the span of only sixteen months, the Obama administration has added a whopping $2.1 trillion to the national debt.
The U.S. federal deficit is now exceeding $1 trillion dollars every year —up from $161 billion in 2007, the last year before the financial crisis. Spending is up some $1 trillion, as outlays for Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid and other entitlements have increased by an amount equal to the entire 2013 military budget – a budget which may again surpass the combined military expenditure of every other nation in the world. U.S. unfunded liabilities are now estimated at between $50 trillion and $100 trillion and by the end of the decade (in less than just 7 years), runaway entitlement spending will require shutting down the military or crippling many other vital domestic spending programs to head off massive deficits that will likely lead to a dollar crisis and significant inflation. No matter what deal is eventually agreed, whether before or after the new year, it will at best nibble at the edges of the trillion dollar annual deficits that are being piled up. While all the focus has been on the so called U.S. 'fiscal cliff', amnesia has taken hold and many market participants have forgotten about the far from resolved Eurozone debt crisis – not to mention looming debt crisis in the UK and Japan.
In Japan, the national debt is seen topping ¥1 quadrillion by the end of March 2013. A policy of money printing pursued for a decade has failed abysmally and now politicians look set to pursue currency debasement in an even more aggressive manner – with attendant consequences. The UK is one of the most indebted countries in the industrialised world - the national debt now stands at more than 1 trillion pounds ($1.6 trillion) and total debt to GDP in the UK remains over 500%. Gold is traditionally sought out as a safe-haven and inflation hedge that investors diversify into in times of trouble. This is because throughout history, those who own physical gold have been protected from financial, economic and monetary crisis. Also, much recent academic research has shown gold is a proven safe haven asset. Gold has lately been behaving like any risk asset. However, buyers should continues to focus on the long term as gold ownership will protect people from the fiscal abyss facing major economies and currencies internationally in the coming years. December 28, 2012 (Source: GoldCore) |
| Posted: 28 Dec 2012 11:30 AM PST THE SPOT MARKET gold price fell back to $1660 an ounce Friday morning, close to where it started the week, as stock markets also edged lower, ahead of talks in Washington aimed at avoiding the $600 billion "fiscal cliff" of spending cuts and tax rises due within days. Gold will break its four-week losing streak today if the spot price ends the week above $1657 an ounce, while spot silver needs to close above $30.03 an ounce to do likewise. "The weight of the [gold] market still overhangs with resistance seen at $1673, the November low, and $1685, the December support," says the latest technical analysis from bullion bank Scotiabank. "While the market holds below $1685 the technical risk remains for another leg lower." "There's some buying but you don't see heavy activity," one physical gold bullion dealer told newswire Reuters this morning. Silver meantime eased back towards the $30 an ounce mark, while other commodity prices were little changed. On the currency markets, the Euro fell against the Dollar Friday morning, dropping 0.6% in two hours, with traders blaming thin volumes and stop loss selling. President Obama is due to hold talks with congressional leaders later today, as part of ongoing negotiations on how best to tackle the US federal deficit. The US economy is due to hit the so-called fiscal cliff next week unless Congress agrees to halt planned spending cuts and extend tax cuts from the Bush administration. Democrats have proposed maintaining the Bush tax cuts for anyone earning $250,000 a year or less, while Obama has indicated he would consider raising that threshold to $400,000. Republican House of Representatives speaker John Boehner meantime has said he would consider allowing the cuts to expire for anyone earning more than $1 million a year, after previously expressing outright opposition to a rise in taxes. Boehner included this proposal in his so-called 'Plan B' last week, but failed to garner enough support from fellow Republicans for it to be put to a House vote. "The way to avoid the fiscal cliff has been right in the face of Republican leaders for days and days and days," Senate majority leader Harry Reid, a Democrat, told the Senate Thursday, adding that Boehner's unwillingness to agree a deal is motivated by concerns about being re-elected speaker of the Republican-controlled House next week. "I say to the speaker, take the escape hatch that we've left you. Put the economic fate of the nation ahead of your own fate as Speaker of the House." "Republicans aren't about to write a blank check for anything Senate Democrats put forward just because we find ourselves at the edge of the cliff," countered Republican Senate minority leader Mitch McConnell. "That having been said, we'll see what the president has to propose." "Time is running out for the long-awaited solution in fiscal-cliff negotiations," says Kai Fachinger, portfolio manager at Sustainable Asset Management in Zurich. "As the positions of the two parties are just too far off, it's likely to happen in the very last second." "[We expect a] deal to happen at the last minute," agrees Dominic Schnider at UBS Wealth Management. "But it will be a minimal deal…I think that should be gold supportive." Vietnam's central bank meantime will play the role of market maker in the gold market next year in a bid to control the domestic gold price, Vietnamica reports, citing comments from State Bank of Vietnam governor Nguyen Van Binh. Earlier this year the SBV claimed the exclusive right to manufacture gold bars in Vietnam. Ben Traynor Gold value calculator | Buy gold online at live prices Editor of Gold News, the analysis and investment research site from world-leading gold ownership service BullionVault, Ben Traynor was formerly editor of the Fleet Street Letter, the UK's longest-running investment letter. A Cambridge economics graduate, he is a professional writer and editor with a specialist interest in monetary economics. Ben writes and presents BullionVault's weekly gold market summary on YouTube and can be found on Google+ (c) BullionVault 2012 Please Note: This article is to inform your thinking, not lead it. Only you can decide the best place for your money, and any decision you make will put your money at risk. Information or data included here may have already been overtaken by events – and must be verified elsewhere – should you choose to act on it.  |
| Rising Euro, Falling Dollar and… Correlations Turned Upside Down Posted: 28 Dec 2012 11:25 AM PST
Based on the December 28th, 2012 Premium Update. Visit our archives for more gold & silver analysis. This week has brought in some calm after recent declines in the precious metals sector. Everybody seems to be waiting for some more decisive moves (both in the markets and on the part of the government, as the "fiscal cliff" issue has not been resolved yet), but these are not very likely before the beginning of the New Year. Meanwhile, currency markets have been moving in the direction that makes precious metals investors happy – or should make them happy, were the situation "normal" – i.e. were the correlations between precious metals and the U.S. dollar strong and negative. Quite unfortunately, the situation is far from normal, but this is likely due to the abovementioned "fiscal cliff" problem and the uncertainty caused by the lack of final solution. Let us then move on to the technical part of today's essay and see what we can figure out from the charts and correlations – we'll start with the euro's long-term chart (charts courtesy by http://stockcharts.com.) Recall that two weeks ago, we had discussed that if the index closed above 132, the breakout would be confirmed and higher values likely. A small decline was seen last Friday, but the Euro Index is once again above the 132 level. If it closes the week in this trading range, the breakout above the September high will be confirmed and a further move to the upside likely. The 138 level appears to be within reach if this holds true. All-in-all, the Euro Index picture this week has bearish implications for the dollar. Now, let's move on to the U.S. currency – we'll start with the medium-term chart. A consolidation has been ongoing for over a month, and the index now appears ready to move lower. The decline and consolidation here are a reflection of the upswing and consolidation seen recently in the Euro Index. Let's have a look at the short-term USD Index chart now. In the chart, there is an interesting development. A small rally lasting a few days has been seen and this makes the current situation quite confusing. The cyclical turning point is upon us and if it wasn't preceded by a pullback, higher values would be likely to follow. The very short-term trend however has already been to the upside, so we could see a reversal and lower index values. (The Euro Index could continue to rally without a pause as well, or more precisely, after a small pause that is not visible on the above chart that is created based on weekly candlesticks.) In short, it seems that lower values are more than likely to be seen in the USD Index. If the precious metals begin to respond positively to this weakness in the dollar, the short-term picture could quickly become bullish for gold, silver and mining stocks. To put the above analysis into proper perspective, let's check the current correlation values. The Correlation Matrix is a tool which we have developed to analyze the impact of the currency markets and the general stock market upon the precious metals sector. The Correlation Matrix is quite confusing this week as it shows that the coefficients have truly turned upside down. They are pretty much neutral for silver when it comes to the 30-day period, but clearly upside down for the 10-day one, as well as for gold and the precious metals mining stocks. The strangest picture here is between gold and the USD. Gold generally moves opposite of the USD Index but has been pretty much in tune with it for the last 30 days and has moved in the opposite direction of stocks. In short, the situation is far from normal. However, it seems that this situation will turn back to normal quite soon and the chart below explains why. The decline in the above chart does quite a good job in representing the simultaneous slide in the dollar and the price of gold (the thing that made the correlations turn upside down in the past 30 trading days). On the above chart we see that the decline is excessive and likely to end or at least pause very soon, so the correlation might return to its normal state in a week or two. The RSI levels are not much above 30, so further short-term strength is suggested here. If the breakdown is invalidated, the picture then would become clearly bullish. Summing up, the situation in the Euro Index improved this week while it deteriorated in the USD Index. Since the cyclical turning point in the latter is quite close and a small rally was seen this week, the implications are bearish. If the precious metals sector begins to respond, then much more strength will likely be seen in gold, silver and mining stock prices. We expect to see a return of the negative correlation between the USD Index and the precious metals very soon. Use the following link to sign up for a free, no-obligation trial of our Premium Service and read the complete version of this study that is over 10 times bigger. You'll also receive Market Alerts on a daily basis and when the trial expires, you'll start receiving our free newsletter. Additionally, you will also receive 12 gold best practice emails. Thank you for reading. Have a great and profitable week! Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA * * * * * About Sunshine Profits Sunshine Profits enables anyone to forecast market changes with a level of accuracy that was once only available to closed-door institutions. It provides free trial access to its best investment tools (including lists of best gold stocks and best silver stocks), proprietary gold & silver indicators, buy & sell signals, weekly newsletter, and more. Seeing is believing. Disclaimer All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be a subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses were based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are believed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.  |
| Gold market overhang poses risk of another price fall Posted: 28 Dec 2012 09:33 AM PST Silver meantime eased back towards the $30 an ounce mark, while other commodity prices were little changed. |
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