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Friday, December 21, 2012

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Who paid C$62m to get a 2.75% NSR on the Casino copper-gold deposit?

Posted: 21 Dec 2012 06:43 PM PST

It appears that people with close ties to Red Kite are involved with private Canadian company that has dished out C$62 million to take part in Western Copper and Gold's Casino copper project.

Highly popular CombiBar gold wafers may be coming to the U.S.

Posted: 21 Dec 2012 04:52 PM PST

European investors have been buying CombiBar credit card sized gold wafers which can be broken into one gram pieces and used as emergency currency. Now there are plans to market them in the U.S.

HFT and silver price ‘management’ – odds stacked against smaller investor

Posted: 21 Dec 2012 04:21 PM PST

The almost universal use of high frequency trading (HFT) in the silver market by major institutions has distorted its day to day functioning so that old style legitimate trading can only be undertaken at a huge disadvantage.

London Gold Market Report 21st December

Posted: 21 Dec 2012 01:03 PM PST

Gold and silver head for 4th straight weekly drop but "Indian and Chinese demand jumps" as prices come down.

Sinclair incandescent – biggest manipulative play in gold ever

Posted: 21 Dec 2012 12:46 PM PST

Jim Sinclair attributes the latest raid on the gold price to a U.S. Fed orchestrated takedown which he sees as "the height of rank, blatant foolishness and ignorance."

Op-Ed: Why a gold correction could last longer than you think

Posted: 21 Dec 2012 10:58 AM PST

From Mineweb:
 
Markets are made of opinions, some better than others.
 
There are always plenty of opinions about gold. And right now, they're clearly making the market. Just not in the way you would think.
 
"There are too many bulls, including me," warned hedge-fund and commodities legend Jim Rogers to CNBC overnight. He advises caution if you're buying gold on this drop. Unlike most everyone else.
 
Swiss bank UBS last week kept its 2013 forecast for gold to average $1,900 per ounce – a rise of 14% from the 2012 average so far – while fellow London market-maker Barclays now sees gold averaging $1,815 next year, a snip off its previous 2013 forecast.
 
Investment bank Morgan Stanley takes "a bullish view," as does Bank of America. It thinks gold will average $2,000 next year, rising to $2,400 in 2014. Whereas Capital Economics (who have an opinion on pretty much anything and everything) predict a peak of $2,200 in late-2013, some 10% above their previous guesstimate.
 
Never mind that 2013 used to mean $2,500 per ounce for the London-based consultancy. That was back in 2011. And like many a gold bull right now, Capital Economics reckons the treatment of gold under the world's banking rules – aka, Basel III – could "provide an important psychological lift to the market."
 
How come? "European regulators appear increasingly willing to recognise gold as a high quality liquid asset," explains today's note from Julian Jessop, head of commodities research, pointing to a much-discussed – but little understood – change in banking regulation.
 
"Others are likely to follow. Increased demand for gold to meet the tougher liquidity requirements could then go some way towards mitigating what might otherwise have been a large downside risk when the authorities do eventually take away the exceptional liquidity they have provided to the banking system."
 
You can find the same opinion – only with less understanding, subtlety, or caveating – pretty much across the Internet. Beware any "analyst" who says...
 
 
More on gold:
 
 
 

Why inflation feels so much worse than the government's numbers

Posted: 21 Dec 2012 10:58 AM PST

From Zero Hedge:
 
The subject of inflation has remained an emotionally charged topic of debate over the last several years. As rising prices for individuals and businesses has negatively impacted their prosperity; reported inflation has remained at very low levels. With the Fed pumping trillions of dollars into the financial system, the fear of much higher inflation, as the dollar is debased, has caused gold prices to soar in recent years. As we will discuss momentarily, the issues surrounding government spending and the massive deficit has brought the topic of inflation to the forefront of the political debate.
 
However, a bit of history is needed for context. The government produces a measure of inflation called the consumer price index (CPI), which is generally broken down into two reports: headline and core. The only difference between the two measures is that the core reading strips out the volatile food and energy components. It is this core reading that economists, and the Fed, focus on much to the aggravation of average consumers who quickly point to the fact the food and energy are big part of their daily lives.
 
The sole purpose in measuring inflation is to help businesses, individuals, and government adjust their financial planning for the impact of inflation. Inflation erodes future purchasing power and decreases economic prosperity, if not accurately accounted for. The accuracy of measuring inflation and accounting for it properly is essential to long-term economic prosperity.
 
The original calculation of CPI, which measured the change in the cost of an identical fixed basket of goods priced at prevailing market costs each period, worked reasonably well for the intended purpose into the early 1980s. However, as the pressure of increasing deficits weighed on political parties, the need to find solutions to reducing spending, without actually cutting spending, led to several substantial changes in the calculation of inflation.
 
Shortly after Clinton entered the White House, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) altered the calculation of inflation by changing...
 
 
More on inflation:
 
 
 

Why Jim Rogers is worried about gold

Posted: 21 Dec 2012 10:58 AM PST

From Newsmax:
 
Gold prices have been falling lately as investors ditch the yellow metal and opt for the safe-haven U.S. dollar, a trend that could carry on into 2013, said noted commodities investor Jim Rogers.
 
Fears the United States may careen over the dreaded fiscal cliff and go into a recession have sparked heavy safe-haven demand for the dollar, a popular asset in times of uncertainty that traditionally moves inversely from gold.
 
Spurts of optimism have typically seen investors ditch the dollar and chase nicely priced equities over gold since inflationary pressures remain at bay.
 
Gold prices, which rose for over a decade, are trading a little over $1,665 an ounce, down from a record of over $1,920 an ounce hit in late 2011.
 
Now might not be the time to dive back in.
 
"Just be careful, there are too many bulls, including me, but I'm very cautious," Rogers told CNBC.
 
"Gold is having a correction — it's been correcting for 15 to 16 months now — which is normal in my view, and it's possible that [the] correction is going to continue for...
 
 
More on Jim Rogers:
 
 
 

David Morgan on Massive Post QE4 Gold & Silver Take-Down

Posted: 21 Dec 2012 10:49 AM PST

Silver guru David Morgan, who previously stated he didn't see silver trading under $30 ever again, discusses whether the metals have bottomed, and his outlook for gold and silver over the next year. Full interview below:   2013 Silver Eagles As Low as $2.59 Over Spot at SDBullion!  

Is Momentum Shifting On Wall Street?

Posted: 21 Dec 2012 10:44 AM PST

By BubbleBustInvesting:

Judging from Friday's morning trading, momentum may be shifting on Wall Street. At 10:30 a.m. stocks were sharply lower, with Dow losing 0.85 percent, S&P 500 losing 0.93 percent, and NASDAQ 1.11 percent. Treasuries and precious metals moved in the other direction. iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treasury Bond Fund (TLT) was up 0.96 percent;Gold ETFs like SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) up 0.57 percent; silver ETFs like ISHARES SILVER TRUST (SLV) up 0.86 percent.

For more than three years, Wall Street has had everything going its way:

  • An ever accommodating Fed, pushing almost every major interest rate near zero -- in essence, providing free money to Wall Street to chase after every asset category.
  • A falling dollar, cushioning economic growth and helping major exports recover nicely from the 2009-lows.
  • A reputation as the world's safe haven, as the rest of the world -- most notably Europe - went off

Complete Story »

Stocks Beat Gold for 1st Time Since 2004

Posted: 21 Dec 2012 10:10 AM PST

Yes, gold has risen 12 years running. But compare its path with US stocks...

read more

Peru's Gold export revenue declines in October

Posted: 21 Dec 2012 10:03 AM PST

Peru’s gold-export revenue dropped 17.2% in October from a year earlier on lower shipments, the central bank said.

Sandstorm CEO Nolan Watson's Exclusive Interview For Seeking Alpha

Posted: 21 Dec 2012 09:54 AM PST

By Sean Bellamy McNulty:

Sandstorm Gold (SAND) has had a banner year, growing to a $1 billion market cap and up 90% year to date. Having covered the stock since June of 2011, it has been amazing to watch them go from a speculative company on the Canadian Venture Exchange to listing on the NYSE and being featured on the Jim Cramer show over the short span of 18 months. Life is a wild ride.

Being located in the same city as SAND's head office, I reached out to SAND's CEO Nolan Watson to request an interview. He was gracious enough to grant me his time on behalf of the readers of Seeking Alpha, during which we discussed a wide variety of topics including his charity Nations Cry, recent national events in Canada, the outlook for the mining industry and, of course, Sandstorm Gold and Sandstorm Metals and Energy.

What Seeking Alpha readers


Complete Story »

China Playing a Major Role in Global Silver Market

Posted: 21 Dec 2012 09:00 AM PST

The latest report from the Silver Institute reveals what most participants of the silver market suspected- China has become the largest physical market for silver in the world. The report indicates total Chinese silver demand has grown to a whopping 170.7 million ounces annually, from just 70 million ounces a decade ago. Chinese investment demand [...]

Jim Sinclair: Charts & TA Are Totally Useless in Manipulated, Manufactured Gold & Silver Markets

Posted: 21 Dec 2012 09:00 AM PST

The legendary Jim Sinclair, who yesterday advised readers that the current take down in the metals market is The Great Train Robbery, in which the Goldmans of the world are going massively long in gold, has sent an email alert to subscribers advising that the post QE4 gold and silver take-down is a move of [...]

Gold mining elements help Ghana get Moody's B1 rating

Posted: 21 Dec 2012 08:53 AM PST

According to Moody's the main drivers of the rating are the country's robust growth prospects supported by foreign investment in gold mining, petroleum and gas sectors.

Dollar Stronger On Fiscal Cliff Setback

Posted: 21 Dec 2012 08:32 AM PST

By FXstreet:

The dollar trades firmer and stocks lower on Friday as the failure of the U.S. House to vote on a budget proposal contributed to caution across financial markets and benefited safe-havens as the USD and the JPY.

EUR/USD extended its pullback from levels above 1.3300 scored last Wednesday, and slid back below 1.3200 despite the latest string of US data on income, expenditures and durable goods orders came in stronger-than-expected.

"While the latest developments have not scuttled the possibility of a broader budget agreement being reached, the timing is now very tight and the margin for error even slimmer", says Nick Bennenbroek, Head of Currency Strategy, Wells Fargo Bank. "Further U.S. dollar strength and foreign currency weakness is possible with the uncertain backdrop likely to persist for at least the next few days".

Euro slips below 1.3200 amid cautious mood

The EUR/USD dipped below


Complete Story »

PwC sees gold and silver miners well positioned for promising 2013

Posted: 21 Dec 2012 08:29 AM PST

All the senior gold mining companies surveyed by PwC intend to pay cash dividends next year, while 28% of junior/mid-tier gold miners intend to offer a dividend, and overall most see better gold price in 2013.

U.S. crude futures, gold pressured by fiscal standoff

Posted: 21 Dec 2012 08:22 AM PST

U.S. crude futures and gold slipped on Friday after Republican lawmakers abandoned their fiscal cliff plan, leaving budget talks with President Barack Obama in limbo.

STOCK MARKET BREATHER & GOLD YEARLY CYCLE LOW

Posted: 21 Dec 2012 08:05 AM PST

The stock market has known all along that the fiscal cliff issue was going to be pushed out to the last minute. This is just how Washington works. Nothing is ever settled until everybody gets all of the pork needed to buy their vote.
The correction today is nothing more than a short-term breather before the market makes a final push to test the all-time highs, probably by the first week in January. I'm guessing we will get some kind of stopgap measure, or extension of the deadline next week that will trigger another explosive move up to test those September highs. At that point the market will find some excuse to drift down into a daily cycle low around the middle of January.
Once a deal is struck the daily cycle correction will end and the market should explode to new highs, maybe big new highs by the state of the Union address on January 29.


The gold market however has been rather confusing of late. The selloff on the QE4 announcement, especially the huge sell orders that hit the market late Wednesday night, made no sense at all.

Now with the benefit of hindsight it's apparent that the yearly cycle low that I was expecting sometime in April or May has been moved up to correspond with last year's D-Wave bottom.


There is a possibility that that yearly cycle low bottomed yesterday. However it appears that we have a daily cycle low 10 days ago. If that's the case then after a short-term bounce gold may make one more move to marginal new lows as the stock market finishes its test of the highs in early January. The normal duration for a gold daily cycle is about 18-25 days. Unless this turns out to be an extremely stretched daily cycle then gold probably has one more curveball to throw us before a final yearly cycle bottom.

On the plus side the rally out of a yearly cycle low tends to be the most powerful rally of the year. In this case if we were to get one more marginal new low to say around $1630 in the next couple of weeks that should be the end of the selling and I think gold will easily test the $1900 level during its next intermediate cycle.


Those of you still holding positions in the precious metals market I would strongly advise you to not lose your position in the next couple of weeks if gold does make another marginal new low. 

If you are back in cash I think I would advise waiting to see how gold reacts as the stock market launches out of this short-term correction. Like I said that may be the trigger for gold to move down into the normal timing band for a daily cycle low and possibly a marginal break below yesterday's intraday bottom. If it does, that should mark a final yearly cycle bottom and trigger a big rally back up to test the September 2011 all-time highs.

This posting includes an audio/video/photo media file: Download Now

The New Cold War is Being Fought Over Gold & Silver

Posted: 21 Dec 2012 08:00 AM PST

By SD Contributor AGXIIK: The tale of the silver boom ended badly for the Hunts when the Federal  Reserve, Justice Department, Saudi kings and others with a real desire to smash the Hunt Brothers took after them with a vengeance.  Jim Sinclair was part of the team that helped Volker dismantle the silver barons, restoring [...]

Gold price trying to retake 200 daily moving average at the end of the week as talk of gold suppression rears its ugly head again

Posted: 21 Dec 2012 07:53 AM PST

There without doubt has been a concerted effort to take the price of gold down in december, the smashes when the come are quick and severe. The only real question is by whom? Yesterday we offered up...

[[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]

Smudged Serial Numbers on Credit Suisse 1 oz 999.9 Gold Bar Ingot Cards

Posted: 21 Dec 2012 07:31 AM PST

I have some 1 oz. Credit Suisse bars I bought from a well known and popular online dealer a few years ago. On the back of the ingot card there is a printed serial number in black ink which matches the serial number engraved on the bar itself. Most serial numbers on the back of the ingot cards on the other Credit Suisse 1 oz. bars I own are clearly readable, but I noticed that a few bars have serial numbers which are badly smudged and the serial numbers are illegible. Do you think these bars are legit? The ingot card looks just like the ones with the legible serial numbers. There is no evidence of tampering and the ingot cards are perfectly sealed. Have any of you ever seen any Credit Suisse Gold bars with smudged serial numbers? I am concerned that a potential buyer might balk at buying these bars because of this.

Brazil Doubles Gold Reserves as Central Banks Buy Bullion

Posted: 21 Dec 2012 07:16 AM PST

Brazil Doubles Gold Reserves as Central Banks Buy Bullion

By Glenys Sim - Dec 21, 2012 1:10 AM MT

Brazil boosted gold reserves for a third month in November to double the country's holdings since August as central banks from Russia to Belarus and South Korea add the metal to diversify their assets.

Brazilian holdings expanded 14.7 metric tons in November to 67.2 tons, the most since November 2000, according to data on the International Monetary Fund's website. The country bought 17.2 tons in October after adding 1.7 tons in September, the first increase since 2008. Russia's holdings increased 2.9 tons last month and Belarus's reserves expanded 1.4 tons, the data show. Turkey pared holdings 5.9 tons and Mexico sold 0.1 ton.

Central banks have been expanding reserves as the metal heads for a 12th annual gain and investors hold a record amount in bullion-backed exchange-traded products. Nations bought 373.9 tons in the first nine months of the year and full-year additions will probably be at the bottom end of a range from 450 to 500 tons, the London-based World Gold Council estimates.

"Central banks, particularly in the emerging economies, are looking to increase the proportion of gold in their reserve assets," Alexandra Knight, an analyst at National Australia Bank Ltd., said from Melbourne. "That will drive prices of gold because they can be quite significant purchases."

Gold for immediate delivery traded at $1,647.41 an ounce at 4:09 p.m. in Singapore, up 5.4 percent this year. Still, the metal slumped to $1,635.70 yesterday, the cheapest since Aug. 22, as data showed the U.S. economy is improving.
Total Reserves

The proportion of gold as a share of total reserves is much smaller in emerging economies than advanced countries, and there's probably going to be a continued push to increase the amount of metal held, Knight said.

The U.S., Germany, Italy and France hold more than 70 percent of their reserves in gold, according to data from the producer-funded WGC. The share in Brazil, the largest emerging economy after China, is 0.8 percent, the data show.

In October, Iraq sold 1 ton of bullion after buying 2.3 tons in September and 23.9 tons in August, according to the IMF data. The acquisition in August was the first by the country since at least 2004. There was no figure for last month.

In Asia, the Bank of Korea increased gold reserves 20 percent last month to diversify investments, boosting holdings for the fourth time since June 2011, according to a statement Dec. 5. Gold is a physical, safe asset, the Bank of Korea said.
Weaker Dollar

Gold has advanced as central banks from the U.S. to Europe and Japan ramp up stimulus to boost their economies, stoking concern that currencies will be debased and inflation may accelerate. The Dollar Index, a gauge against six counterparts has lost 1 percent this year, set for the first drop since 2009.

The U.S. Federal Reserve said Dec. 12 it would buy $45 billion of Treasury securities a month from January, adding to $40 billion a month of existing mortgage-debt purchases. The Bank of Japan expanded an asset-purchase program for the third time in four months yesterday.

Gold will probably peak in 2013 and keep declining the following year as U.S. growth accelerates, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said in a report on Dec. 5. Immediate-delivery metal reached a record $1,921.15 an ounce in September 2011.

The metal is Morgan Stanley's top commodity pick for 2013 on buying by central banks, geopolitical uncertainty and low so- called real interest rates, analysts including Peter Richardson and Hussein Allidina wrote in a Dec. 6 report. The bank expects bullion to average $1,853 an ounce next year.

Prices have been supported by so-called official-sector buying, David Gornall, chairman of the London Bullion Market Association, told a conference last month. China may add more to reserves as the metal accounts for a lower share of total holdings compared with the U.S., he said in Hong Kong. Official- sector buying was 439.7 tons in 2011, the highest since 1964.

Holdings in gold-backed ETPs reached a record 2,632.516 tons yesterday, and are 12 percent higher this year, data compiled by Bloomberg show.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-1...banks-buy.html

Apocalyptic mood in the gold and silver pit

Posted: 21 Dec 2012 06:59 AM PST

Goldmoney

Iraq Quadruples Gold Reserves In Two Months – First Time In Years

Posted: 21 Dec 2012 06:27 AM PST

Iraq quadrupled its gold holdings to 31.07 tonnes over the course of three months between August and October, data from the International Monetary Fund showed on yesterday. The IMF's monthly statistics report showed the country's holdings increased by some 23.9 tonnes in August to 29.7 tonnes. That was followed by a 2.3-tonne rise in September [...]

PwC : Majority Gold executives see bullish Gold next year

Posted: 21 Dec 2012 06:19 AM PST

Underpinning higher gold prices has been central bank buying, a reversal from the last two decades in which nations were net sellers of gold, according to the report.

Gold & Silver Head for 4th Straight Weekly Drop

Posted: 21 Dec 2012 05:28 AM PST

Wholesale gold bullion prices hovered around $1,650 an ounce Friday morning in London, having earlier hit fresh four-month lows, while stocks edged lower and US Treasuries gained despite little evident progress in Washington to avoid the so-called fiscal cliff.

Iraq Quadruples Gold Reserves In Two Months

Posted: 21 Dec 2012 05:13 AM PST

Gold is marginally lower in dollars today and on course for its largest weekly drop since June (-2.6%), as Comex speculators continue to have the upper hand over store of wealth buyers including central banks.

Iraq now holds 31.07 tons of Gold in reserves

Posted: 21 Dec 2012 05:07 AM PST

IMF said the West Asian nation made its first major move in years to boost its gold reserves in recent months.

Bracing for Bullion's Short-term Corrections

Posted: 21 Dec 2012 04:57 AM PST

Gold price reacted negatively to the latest US GDP data. Based on the third reading of the US real GDP growth, the economy grew at an annual pace of 3.1% in Q3, faster than the economists' estimates of 2.8%, and the prior reading of 2.7%.

The Mayan Year Zero, Today's Economy & Gold

Posted: 21 Dec 2012 04:36 AM PST

Admittedly, these are challenging times. When confronted with challenges, people tend to think more outside the box. The aim of this article is to understand our current path by looking from a broader perspective than we are used to. What if indeed these times are different? Can we find evidence that helps us understand in which direction we are heading? GoldSilverWorlds interviewed Darryl Schoon who provided a lot of insights for this article. Darryl was one of the few people who correctly predicted the big financial crash of 2008/9. He is the author of several books (highly recommended reading).

Today, December 21, 2012 is a day that is anticipated by many. Apocalyptic fears are manifested and misused by some, unfortunately. Others have been looking into a more serious meaning of the Mayan calendar. In general, a certain momentum is created vis-à-vis the Mayans who proved to be a sophisticated group of people. That momentum is clear in the number of Google searches on the keyword "Mayan calendar" (source: Google Trends).

google searches mayan calendar gold silver insights

Before discussing the meaning of the end of the cycle in the Mayan Long Count calendar, we strongly recommend looking to "Shift of the Ages." It is a dramatic, documentary film that reveals the story of the Mayan culture and its sophisticated prophecies of time. Commissioned on behalf of the Maya nation, the Shift of the Ages is the first official discourse to the world from the Mayan Council of Elders, to dispel misconceptions and replace them with the positive story about this incredible period of time for humanity. The movie is freely accessible till December 21st  and it appears the free access is extended till January 15th, 2013.

ShiftOfTheAges.com describes that the Mayans were superb mathematicians and astronomers. They created one of the most accurate calendars known to man. Their calendar is cyclical, not linear. There are three Mayan calendars known to Westerners: the sacred calendar, the Haab and the Long Count. The latter, an era-based calendar is the most widely known. It covers inconceivable amounts of time and is theorized to have an end-date of December 21, 2012. The Mayan Long Count calendar began at approximately 3114 BCE, so with its end today, the length of the calendar is about 5125 years.

Another insightful article appeared on the Huffington Post and confirms the previous explanation:

The following thoughts are echoed in Mark Van Stone's book, 2012: Science and Prophecy of the Ancient Maya. "There is nothing in the Maya or Aztec or ancient Mesoamerican prophecy," he writes, "to suggest that they prophesied a sudden or major change of any sort in 2012."

Dr. Jaime Awe, Director of Belize'sInstituteofArchaeologyand part Maya himself says that 2012 "represents the ending of one cosmological cycle, and the beginning of another. It is very much the way most people would look at the end of one year and the beginning of another, but over a very, very long period of time. It is a time for reflection, and for considering future direction."

Indeed, it is not about a specific day like December 21st, 2012. What truly matters it the transition period and process, from one super cycle into another one. That change is what brings a true challenge.

Key take-away from the Mayan Calendar – Year Zero

What follows are reflections from Darryl R. Schoon who shared his insights with us about the Mayans and the end of their Long Count calendar. Before going into detail, he notes that he is aware of the Mayans prophecies. He admits that the difficulty with it, is that one cannot exactly know the meanings. We need to rely on interpretations which can evoke reactions as they are not always conform to "our norms and known values."

After the Spanish conquest, the Mayans retreated into the mountains where they were beyond the reach of the Spanish quest for gold and silver. InNorth America the quest for gold forced the Lakota Sioux off their lands when gold was discovered. The gold deposit, later known as the Homestake Mine, was the richest in North America.

The Mayans had prophecies, one of which was the transition between two huge ages. The new era would be characterized by unification of humanity, a new age of human consciousness. The period between those two ages is called "year zero" and it is exactly that transition phase we are going through right now. The deeper meaning of "year zero" relates to the shift in human consciousness, which is from a cosmic order, as described by the Mayans themselves.

An era of change – More evidence of transition

Now, the exciting thing is that the Mayan Long Count calendar is not the only super cycle which is coming to end. Darryl Schoon poins out that several cycles or waves are more or less simultaneously ending. In addition, there is no known connection between those cycles or the people who theorized them.

Professor David Hackett Fisher wrote the "Great Wave" (1996). His research is based on detailed analysis of large amounts of historical pricing data. Fisher suggests that we are going through the last stages of a price revolution that has been building since 1896. The end of each wave is characterized by rising food prices and events of epic disorder (including economic collapse). Three large waves have ended in a similar fashion in the previous millennium. Fisher calls the current wave the "Great Wave" as it is the most powerful of them all, in its amplitude and hence in its collapse.

Buckminster Fuller, mostly known as a futurist, predicted that humanity would be facing political, economic, environmental, and ethical crises. TIME Magazine once wrote that 48 of the 50 predictions from Fuller came true. Fuller wrote in his book "Critical Path" in 1981 that collapse of world power structures was nearing and that it would be an unprecedented event. Communism collapsed right after the publication of his book, capitalism would follow. The event would be a universally intended crisis that would bring mankind together.

William Strauss and Neil Howe wrote "The Fourth Turning" in which they examined 500 years of Anglo-American history. The Fourth Turning reveals a distinct historical pattern: modern history moves in cycles, each one has the length of a long human life (approximately 80–90 years), and each composed of four different types of mood eras ("turnings").

Strauss & Howe wrote in 1997: "The next Fourth Turning is due to begin shortly after the new millennium, midway through the Oh-Oh decade. Around the year 2005, a sudden spark will catalyze a Crisis mood. Remnants of the old social order will disintegrate. Political and economic trust will implode. Real hardship will beset the land, with severe distress that could involve questions of class, race, nation and empire. The very survival of the nation will feel at stake. Sometime before the year 2025,Americawill pass through a great gate in history, commensurate with the American Revolution, Civil War, and twin emergencies of the Great Depression and World War II. The risk of catastrophe will be very high. The nation could erupt into insurrection or civil violence, crack up geographically, or succumb to authoritarian rule. If there is a war, it is likely to be one of maximum risk and efforts, in other words a total war."

Darryl Schoon sees a couple of take-aways. First, the three cycle theories, as just discussed, have been remarkably correct up until now. Second, they are lining up with the Mayan Long Count calendar, as if it was a synergism. They point to a significant change, occurring somewhere in the current timeframe. Third, economic collapse is part of the end of each of these cycles. Fourth, the new era brings new paradigms with it. Fifth, the change will result in a society of a higher conscious order.

To make things clear, we are not interested in conspiracy theories or doomsday prophecies. We rather try to interpret reliable sources and understand if we can detect a meaningful common direction.

How exactly it is going to play out remains unknown for every one of us. We can only monitor the sequence of events to gain insights about its manifestation.

The economic meaning – A paradigm shift is coming

Most of our readers have lost trust in the mainstream media and are not surprised to hear that significant economic change is ahead. It is reflected in the evidence that some of us see in an economic collapse and the ascent of gold and silver.

In Darryl Schoon's view, the fundamental weakness of paper banknotes play a central role in the coming "big change". He has been advocating this for the past couple of years, just like he predicted the financial crash of 2008. Darryl goes on to say that the system has served the elites and bankers. It has been the predominant paradigm for the last 300 years, invented by the Britains during their hegemony. The last decennia however, this system is pushed to its extremes and is now over its limits.

Just like Socrates described the derivative world, our fake financial system is also an illusion. We are currently in a derivative money system based on paper money of the bankers. That is a form of a fraud and it cannot last forever. We could be very close to its end.

Jim Rickards, well known for its thorough economic and monetary analysis, is the author of the book "Currency Wars". He was one of the speakers at GATA's 2011 Conference in London, where he presented the following remarkable conclusion:

 "We have 80 years of junk science in economics. It is, therefore, no surprise that our policy makers ruined the economy, guided by mainstream economics. They are riding us off a cliff because they are operating based on wrong assumptions … They cannot get their equations right because their paradigm is not right." He adds to it the comparison of trying to write the equations of the revolution of the sun turning around the earth.

The key question is how exactly a collapse could look like. Again, nobody has the answer. There are different opinions, and they range from a hyperinflation to a deflationary depression. Today we are already on a path of slow growth combined with inflation. Possibly this situation will be magnified, resulting in a long period of extremely slow growth in combination with hyperinflation at a certain point. A currency collapse is very likely.

As a side note, a critical argument could be raised that as long as we do not see something (be it a prophecy by the Mayans, an  economic collapse or something else), it does not exist. Darryl argues that such an idea is short sighted and advises a minimal level of out-of-the-box thinking, referring to the stagflationary period of the 70's. Classic economists could not believe that a combination of economic stagnation with rising prices would ever be possible. They were proven wrong.

Gold and Silver should regain their real value

Last but not least, in all of the above, the link with gold and silver is crystal clear. With the words of Darryl Schoon: "Precious metals are the only carriers that are going to preserve what we have now into what is to come."

On a global monetary level, Darryl believes that a form of a gold standard will re-emerge. Trade on a global level will probably be effectuated in terms of a reference to gold or silver because it represents a high level of trust (for sure compared to today's fiat based system). On a local level, however, many outcomes are possible and things are not clear enough at this point to make a justified call.

It is no secret that today's leaders show no commitment to implement gold in the system. It is almost unimaginable to see Mr. Ben Bernanke prepare for a new gold standard.

But what if our leaders would be forced to change? It is indeed exactly the power of change that will drive one or another form of a gold standard. The big change – as described by the sources we mentioned earlier – could possibly be so strong that leaders and Wall Street would not be able remain in control. In that respect, it is vital to understand the difference between control and power. Leaders are extremely powerful, but it does not mean they can control every situation.

"Power is no more control than credit is money."

Who Needs Gold?

Posted: 21 Dec 2012 04:14 AM PST

When Bernanke announced QE4 hot on the heels of QE3, the kneejerk reaction of most investors was to load up on gold. But three months later, we are still waiting for the great bull market to begin in earnest. What gives?

Volcker On Banks: “Measures have lost effectiveness”

Posted: 21 Dec 2012 04:13 AM PST

Speaking at NYU in this recent presentation, former Chairman of the Federal Reserve Bank, Tall Paul Volcker, weighs in on an "old fashioned" gold standard, the "enormous" price of gold and the "lost effectiveness" of centrally planned monetary policy while … Continue reading

Andy Hoffman: What's Going on with Gold

Posted: 21 Dec 2012 03:30 AM PST

In this discussion with AIH..
(1) Andy discusses the continuing gold raid.
(2) We talk about the Japanese ponzi scheme (with all of this money printing).
(3) Andy talks about what will happen after 2013.

from altinvestorshangout:

~TVR

Rogue banks contribute to political malaise

Posted: 21 Dec 2012 03:23 AM PST

Stacy Summary: 'Political malaise,' or 'banana republicanism?' Rogue banks contribute to political malaise Among the factors contributing to the political malaise gripping this country perhaps the most perplexing is that, amid billion-dollar settlements by banks for patently criminal activity like … Continue reading

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