saveyourassetsfirst3 |
- Porter Stansberry: What you must know about energy markets now
- If you're bullish on commodities, keep an eye on this market
- There's an unusual situation in this third precious metal
- "QE4": What the Fed's latest move could really mean for the markets and the economy
- Kaymarie Coin and Currency Supply, Inc
- Inflationary Deflation: Creating a Bubble in New Money
- The Trend Wants To Be Your Friend (Again)
- Deepcaster December Letter: Profit & Protection Despite Cartel Market Intervention
- Gold or mining shares?
- A 'Very Different' Platinum Market Swings Into a 600,000 Ounce Deficit
- More than just costs are a concern at Barrick Gold’s $8.5B Pascua-Lama mega-mine
- Colombian armed rebels tighten control over gold mining
- Two King World News Blogs
- Japan hits out at S&P over 'significant' ratings problems
- Market's Fed reaction could be worrying sign for Gold
- Silver’s Young Upleg
- Why the gold price rally is only resting and not dead
- Jeffrey Christian: Silver Demand is Weak, Enormous Surpluses to Cause Silver to Outperform Gold to the Downside
- Bill Murphy: Blatant Post QE4 Metals Raids Indicate The Cartel is Getting Desperate
- By the Numbers for the Week Ending December 14
- A Warning For Gold From Inflation, The Dollar, And Mining Stocks
- Unique Ways To Invest In China's 'Silver Lining'
- Gold and Silver Disaggregated COT Report (DCOT) for December 14
- The European Flag, Reversal Candlestick in Stocks and Precious Metals
- Da-n the Banks!
- Putting things in Perspective
- Confirming Silver’s Young Upleg
- Sandy's Silver Lining
- Market’s Fed Reaction “Could Be Worrying Sign for Gold” as “Bear Stance Supported by Price Move”
| Porter Stansberry: What you must know about energy markets now Posted: 15 Dec 2012 12:17 PM PST From The Energy Report: Porter Stansberry doesn't mince words. Politicians? Scumbags. People in general? Lazy. Laws against oil exports? Disastrous. In this interview with The Energy Report, the Stansberry & Associates Investment Research founder argues that oil exports could usher in an era of unprecedented prosperity, if legislation would only allow it. However, he says there's no holding back U.S. energy wealth; the profits will sprout up in oil- and gas-related industries like fertilizer, petrochemicals and shipping. Find out where Stansberry is putting his money. This time, it's not on E&Ps. The Energy Report: As a history enthusiast, Porter, to what extent do you believe technology has changed investing? Porter Stansberry: The future will be unlike the past in every way related to technology, but it will be exactly like the past as it relates to people. Technology changes a great deal, but people don't. You can count on politicians to be scumbags and most people to be lazy. But as for investing, technology gives far more people access to information. Only one person in the world knew the actual price of a high-yield bond 25 years ago—Michael Milken—and he made a fortune with that information advantage. Today, everybody has access to trading information. Everyone has access to price. In general, technology has made finance a smaller-margin business. It's led to enormous scale in our financial institutions, which is the only way they can really survive. But fear and greed are still the underlying forces that drive the markets, and investors are just as subject to irrational emotional decisions as they've ever been. I don't expect technology will ever change that. TER: Getting specifically into energy, a few weeks ago the International Energy Agency World Energy Outlook (WEO) said the U.S. would become the world's largest oil producer, overtaking Russia and Saudi Arabia, before 2020. Then Goldman Sachs said it would happen by 2017. PS: They stole my thunder. I've been saying 2017 for maybe a year now. If Goldman is saying 2017 and IEA is saying 2020 it will probably happen in 2016. TER: How will the geopolitical and socioeconomic landscape change when the U.S. becomes the largest oil producer? PS: One of the biggest drags on the U.S. dollar over the last several decades has been the trade deficit resulting from petroleum imports. That's going to largely disappear, though not completely because we'll still need some petroleum imports for certain flavors of crude. As for exports, considerable legal hurdles remain. We have archaic laws about oil because we had long believed that oil was a strategic resource and that the world was going to run out of it in the short term. Unless we change our laws to allow exports of crude oil, none of this magnificent new supply is going to aid our economy at all. In fact, we'll have a terrific glut of oil, and we're already at record levels of storage. The price hasn't collapsed yet because unrest in the Middle East is causing fear to inflate the market price, but the price will absolutely collapse if we... More from Porter Stansberry:       |
| If you're bullish on commodities, keep an eye on this market Posted: 15 Dec 2012 12:17 PM PST From Gold Scents: Last summer, I told traders to watch the oil cycle as the CRB was working its way down into a final three-year cycle low. At the time, I was confident the entire commodity complex was just waiting for the oil cycle to bottom. Once it did, the rest of the commodity complex launched out of that bottom like a rocket. Remember... at the time, virtually every analyst was predicting the end of the commodity bull market. I knew that was baloney. All that was happening was a completely normal decline into a major three-year cycle low. I also correctly predicted that the bottom in the CRB would mark the three-year cycle top in the dollar. ... Since September, when the dollar began its pathetic countertrend rally, the CRB has been moving down into its first corrective phase. At this point, I think the entire commodity complex is just waiting for the leader to turn. And by leader, I mean natural gas. As you can see in... More on commodities:    |
| There's an unusual situation in this third precious metal Posted: 15 Dec 2012 12:17 PM PST From Louis James, Chief Metals & Mining Investment Strategist, Casey Research: In October of last year, we published a platinum-market overview in the Casey International Speculator and concluded by saying: "We recommend avoiding South Africa, and in this context it means staying away from platinum producers located there. If the energy situation spins out of control, miners' strikes continue, and the local trouble puts an indefinite halt to a significant portion of platinum production, some speculative opportunities may appear in the physical-metal market or platinum-backed investment tools. If we see signs of that happening, we may speculate on the results." Although some of the events that we expected did occur this year, the "indefinite halt" has not. The nationwide wildcat strikes that ended in mid-November suggested that that scenario was possible, but the bubbling pot simmered down. We were asked by our readers to share our view on the implications of those actions on the price of platinum. So, what is the outlook for the platinum market now, and is it time to buy? Let's start with some context. According to Johnson Matthey's Platinum 2012 report, the platinum market in 2011 was in a state of... More on precious metals:    |
| "QE4": What the Fed's latest move could really mean for the markets and the economy Posted: 15 Dec 2012 12:17 PM PST From Peak Prosperity: OK, the Fed's recent decision to boost its monetary stimulus (a.k.a. "money printing," "quantitative easing," or simply "QE") by another $45 billion a month to a combined $85 billion per month demonstrates an almost complete departure from what a normal person might consider sensible. To borrow a phrase from Joel Salatin: Folks, this ain't normal. To this I will add... and it will end badly. If you had stopped me on the street a few years ago and asked me what I thought would have happened in the stock, bond, foreign currency, and commodity markets on the day the Fed announced an $85 billion per month thin-air money-printing program directed at government bonds, I never would have predicted what has actually come to pass. I would have predicted soaring stock prices on the expectation that all this money would have to end up in the stock market eventually. I would have predicted the dollar to fall because who in their right mind would want to hold the currency of a country that is borrowing 46 cents (!) out of every dollar that it is spending while its central bank monetizes 100% of that craziness? Further, I would have expected additional strength in the government bond market, because $85 billion pretty much covers all of the expected new issuance going forward, plus many entities still need to buy U.S. bonds for a variety of fiduciary reasons. With little product for sale and lots of bids by various players, one of which – the Fed – has a magic printing press and is not just price insensitive but actually seeking to drive prices higher (and yields lower), that's a recipe for rising prices. Then I would have called for sharply rising commodity markets because nothing correlates quite so well with thin-air money printing as commodities. That's what should have happened. But it's not what we're seeing... More on the Federal Reserve:    |
| Kaymarie Coin and Currency Supply, Inc Posted: 15 Dec 2012 09:36 AM PST I'm not having much luck getting what I ordered from these people. Their email contact form on the site does not work Calling and trying to leave a msg is also out the window http://www.kaymariecoin.com/index.ph...9f26b99e208c66 I should of done a little more research on them. http://www.resellerratings.com/store..._coin_supplies |
| Inflationary Deflation: Creating a Bubble in New Money Posted: 15 Dec 2012 08:14 AM PST Paul Mylchreest has released the December Thunder Road Report, titled Inflationary Deflation: Creating a Bubble in New Money. The report is 75 MUST READ pages detailing the END GAME to the largest debt bubble in the history of the world: a massive cost-push hyperinflationary collapse of the US dollar. This is the biggest debt bubble [...]Check out these similar articles: |
| The Trend Wants To Be Your Friend (Again) Posted: 15 Dec 2012 06:15 AM PST By Marc Chandler: The US dollar moved lower over the past week against the major currencies, with the notable exception of the Japanese yen. The greenback's technical tone has deteriorated. The euro and sterling appear to have convincingly broken above significant down trend lines. With the holiday season upon us, there seems to be no compelling technical reason not to look for a continuation of dollar weakness into the end of the year. Few are incentivized to fight the trend. The extent of the Fed's easing, and the implication of its guidance, suggests an even more dovish posture than the expansion of QE3+ (remember it was purposely open-ended, unlike QE1 and QE2). While the euro zone economy appears to be contracting this quarter at a slightly faster pace than in Q3, the slowdown in the US is more dramatic. Growth may be more than cut in half from the 2.7% annual Complete Story » |
| Deepcaster December Letter: Profit & Protection Despite Cartel Market Intervention Posted: 15 Dec 2012 06:00 AM PST Submitted by Deepcaster: So long as The Cartel is in a very active interventional mode (e.g. as in taking down the price of Gold and Silver periodically) one should not be lured into thinking that the periodic up spikes in the prices of Gold and Silver necessarily present a "breakout" or a buying opportunity. As [...]Check out these similar articles: |
| Posted: 15 Dec 2012 06:00 AM PST There are many reasons to own physical gold. They arise from the financial and monetary uncertainty impacting investors around the globe. Some of the more obvious reasons are: Weakening economic ...  |
| A 'Very Different' Platinum Market Swings Into a 600,000 Ounce Deficit Posted: 15 Dec 2012 05:01 AM PST ¤ Yesterday in Gold and Silver'Dead' would be a good word to describe the gold market everywhere on Planet Earth yesterday. Gold closed at $1,696.20 spot...down $1.10 from Thursday. Volume was microscopic at around 85,000 contracts. The silver price chart was very similar right up until 10:00 a.m. in New York. From there it got sold off into the 1:30 p.m. Comex close...and then didn't do a lot after that. Silver finished the Friday trading day at $32.31 spot...down 23 cents from Thursday. Volume was only around 27,500 contracts. The dollar index opened at the 79.93 mark...and stayed mostly at that level until shortly before 8:00 a.m. in New York. From that point, the index rolled over...and by 12:15 a.m. Eastern time, it was down to its low of the day...around 79.51...down about 45 basis points from its early morning New York high. Then it recovered a hair going into the close...finishing the day at 79.56...down 37 basis points. The effects of the decline in the dollar index were nowhere to be seen in either the gold or silver price yesterday. The gold stocks chopped around in about a one percent price range of Thursday's close...with the HUI finishing the Friday trading session up a tiny 0.22%. Almost every silver stock finished in positive territory yesterday...and that's reflected in Nick Laird's Intraday Silver Sentiment Index, as it closed up 1.29%. (Click on image to enlarge) Here's the 'big picture' view of what the silver stocks have been up to...Nick Laird's 'old' SSI chart. (Click on image to enlarge) The CME's Daily Delivery Report shows that 15 gold and 12 silver contracts were posted for delivery on Tuesday...and the link to yesterday's Issuers and Stoppers Report is here. There were no reported changes in either SLV or GLD on Friday. The U.S. Mint had a smallish sales report. They sold 1,000 ounces of gold eagles...and 2,500 one-ounce 24K gold buffaloes. Month-to-date the mint has sold 35,500 ounces of gold eagles...6,500 one-ounce 24K gold buffaloes...and 1,403,000 silver eagles. Based on this data, the silver/gold sales ratio stands at 27 to 1. It was a very slow day the Comex-approved depositories on Thursday, as they reported receiving only 9,565 troy ounces of silver...and shipped nothing out the door. The Commitment of Traders Report was as expected...a yawner. In silver, JPMorgan et al decreased their net short position by a tiny 591 contracts. The Commercial net short position is currently a hair under 290 million ounces. The 'Big 4' are short 265.7 million ounces of that amount...or 50.7% of the entire Comex futures market in silver on a net basis. The '5 through 8' traders are short an additional 55.4 million ounces of silver, which represents 10.6 percent of the Comex short position on a net basis. So the 'Big 8' are short 61.3% of the entire Comex futures market in silver. JPMorgan still short well over 30 percentage points of this amount...and it's my opinion that Scotiabank/Scotia Mocatta are short another 10+ percentage points. So between the two of them, they are short roughly 45% of the entire Comex futures market. The other two traders in the 'Big 4' hold immaterial positions...as do the four traders in the '5 through 8' category. In gold, JPMorgan et al decreased their net short position by 2,716 contracts...and the Commercial net short position now sits at 21.49 million ounces. The 'Big 4' are short 13.44 million ounces of gold...or 37.0 percent of the entire Comex futures market in gold on a net basis. The '5 through 8' traders are short an additional 5.33 million ounces of gold...and this amount represents 14.7 percent of the Comex futures market on a net basis. Using straight arithmetic, the 'Big 8' are short 51.7% of the entire Comex futures market in gold on a net [all reported spread trades subtracted from the open interest] basis. The 'Big 8' are short 87.3% of the Commercial net short position in gold. But in silver, the 'Big 8' are short 110.7 percent of the Commercial net short position...with JPMorgan and [I believe] Scotiabank holding about almost half of that percentage between the two of them. I'd also like to point out that these percentages of concentration are minimum numbers. You can follow the historic and interactive COT data for gold here...and silver here. These charts are a bit slow to load...especially silver...so if you're using an older browser, it may take a while. As always, here's this past week's Commitment of Traders data for the Big 4 and Big 8 traders in all commodities traded on the Comex as of the close of trading on Tuesday, December 11th. It's translated into "Days of World Production to Cover Short Positions"...but it's just a different name for the same data. It's my guess that 90 percent of the red line [the Big 4] in silver is represented by JPMorgan Chase and Scotiabank. (Click on image to enlarge) Here's an 'Australian Christmas Wreath' made of native parrots. The read and blue ones are Crimson Rosellas...and the red and green ones are Australian King Parrots. The photo was taken at Lamington National Park in Queensland, Australia...and I thank Australian reader Brad Lane for sharing it with us. I have the usual number of stories for a Saturday...and only a couple of them are ones I've saved for the weekend. I'm ever conscious of the beating JPMorgan et al laid on the precious metals between Christmas and New Years in 2011 Substitute teacher may be heir to gold fortune after $7.4M in coins found in reclusive cousin's garage. More than just costs are a concern at Barrick Gold's $8.5B Pascua-Lama mega-mine. Colombian armed rebels tighten control over gold mining. ¤ Critical ReadsSubscribeOdds Rise for 'Fiscal Cliff' Fight Entering 2013The "fiscal cliff" impasse is raising the odds that Congress will fail to meet a year-end deadline to avert steep tax hikes and budget cuts that could push the nation into another recession. With talks between President Barack Obama and House of Representatives Speaker John Boehner at an apparent standstill, analysts said on Friday that it was increasingly likely that Washington won't be able to reach a deal before January 1. "It's time to contemplate a plunge off the cliff," Potomac Research Group analyst Greg Valliere wrote in a research note. This Reuters story was posted on The New York Times website during the East Coast lunch hour yesterday...and I thank Phil Barlett for today's first story. The link is here.  Rick Santelli on False Dictatorships and Fed Exit StrategiesIn a little under three minutes, CNBC's Rick Santelli clarifies (in a much-needed manner) that we do not live in a monarchy or dictatorship (hoping for benevolence) - no matter how many Democratic senators and congressmen believe the President was given a mandate leaving him "holding all the cards" - we live in a republic (where the sovereignty rests with all individuals) and removing 'debt ceiling' checks and balances (for example) is a ride down a slippery slope. The chagrined Chicagoan then goes on to discuss the fact that the Fed, having unloaded another package of potentially infinite unsterilized money-printing, was actively discussing its exit strategy. Put simply, Santelli notes, "mark my words" the market will decide that exit - and the Fed had better be ready when it comes. This 2:43 minute CNBC video clip was embedded in a Zero Hedge piece on Thursday...and it's a must watch as Rick pretty much exposes QE4 as the debacle it already is...and will become in the future. I thank Casey Research's own Bud Conrad for sending it our way...and the link is here.  Treasury Yields Below Inflation May Last Years: Chart of the DayInvestors in Treasury securities will have to get used to yields lower than the U.S. inflation rate, according to Andrew Garthwaite, a global strategist at Credit Suisse Group AG. As the chart of the day shows, the so-called real yield on 10-year notes is less than zero for the second consecutive year. That hasn't occurred since the 1970s, according to data compiled by Yale University Professor Robert J. Shiller. The real yield is calculated by subtracting the 12-month percentage change in consumer prices from the notes' yield. "Negative real rates will remain in place for at least a decade -- and maybe a generation," Garthwaite, who is based in London, wrote two days ago in a report. Give this guy a cigar...as he's nailed it! This very short Bloomberg story [with embedded chart] was posted on their Internet site late Thursday evening...and is well worth two minutes of your time. I thank Manitoba reader Ulrike Marx for sharing it with us...and the link is here.  Doug Noland: Hotel California"You can check out any time you like...but you can never leave"...Hotel California...The Eagles During his Wednesday press conference, chairman Bernanke downplayed the significance of the change from "twist" to outright balance sheet inflation. Wall Street analysts have generally downplayed this as well. Truth be told, no one has a clear view of the consequences of taking the Fed's balance sheet from about $3.0 TN to perhaps $4.0 TN over the coming year or so. It's worth noting that in previous periods of rapid balance sheet expansion, the Fed was essentially accommodating de-leveraging by players (hedge funds, banks, proprietary trading desks, REITs, etc.) caught on the wrong side of a market crisis. Does the Fed's next Trillions worth of liquidity injections spur more speculation in bonds, stocks and global risk assets? Or, instead, will our central bank again provide liquidity for leveraged players looking to sell (many increased holdings with the intention of eventually offloading to the Fed)? It's impossible to know today the ramifications of the Fed's latest tack into uncharted policy territory. It will stoke some inflationary consequence no doubt, although the impact on myriad Credit Bubbles around the globe is anything but certain. Clearer is that the Fed has again crossed an important line. There has been previous talk of Fed "exit strategies." I'll side with the Dallas Fed's Richard Fisher, who Friday warned of "Hotel California" risk. There has also been this notion that the U.S. economy is progressing through a ("beautiful") deleveraging process. Yet there should be little doubt that the Fed has now resorted to blatantly orchestrating a further leveraging of the U.S. economy. It will now become only that much more difficult (think impossible) for the Federal Reserve to extricate itself from this Inflationary Process. Doug Noland at the top of his game. His Friday commentaries, when he writes them, are must reads for me...as is this one. It was posted on the prudentbear.com Internet site yesterday evening...and the link is here.  Everyone is fair game: Spy agency conducts surveillance on all US citizensThe Obama administration overruled recommendations from within the US Department of Homeland Security and implemented new guidelines earlier this year that allow the government to gather and analyze intelligence on every single US citizen. Since the spring, a little-know intelligence agency outside of Washington, DC has been able to circumvent the Fourth Amendment to the US Constitution and conduct dragnet surveillance of the entire country, combing massive datasets using advanced algorithms to search and seize personal info on anyone this wish, reports the Wall Street Journal this week. There's no safeguard that says only Americans with criminal records are the ones included, and it's not just suspected terrorists that are considered in the searches either. The National Counterterrorism Center (NCTC) has been provided with entire government databases and given nearly endless access to intelligence on everyone in the country, regardless of whether or not they've done anything that would have made them a person of interest. As long as data is "reasonably believed" to contain "terrorism information," the agency can do as they wish. What's more is the NCTC can retain that information for years, reviewing it whenever they'd like to take a look. This very disturbing essay was posted on the Russia Today website on Thursday evening...and it's Roy Stephens first contribution to today's column. If you live in the United States of Amerika...this might be worth your time. The link is here.  Banking Supervisors Say Basel Accord Won't Be DerailedThe failure of Europe and the United States to meet next month's deadline on tougher bank capital rules won't derail the global accord, regulators said after they themselves were unable to agree changes to one of the new rules. The Basel Committee on Banking Supervision concluded a two-day meeting on Friday saying 11 countries were ready to start phasing in its Basel III bank capital and liquidity rules. The committee is made up of nearly 30 countries but major financial centres like the European Union and United States are delaying the start of the world's main regulatory response to the 2007-09 financial crisis. Here's another Reuters story that showed up on The New York Times website during the East Coast noon hour yesterday...and it's Phil Barlett's second offering in today's column. The link is here.  |
| More than just costs are a concern at Barrick Gold’s $8.5B Pascua-Lama mega-mine Posted: 15 Dec 2012 05:01 AM PST  Standing on a precipice 5,200 metres above sea level, the air is thin and the vistas are long. Just breathing is difficult at this altitude, with a howling wind disturbing the utter, majestic silence of the snow-capped Andes mountains, threatening to blow you over the edge. You'd think you were alone at the top of the world. But what happens up here in Pascua-Lama, where Canadian mining giant Barrick Gold is developing the first open-pit gold mine to straddle two countries, will have a huge impact on the people living in the valleys below on both sides of the border — for better or for worse. |
| Colombian armed rebels tighten control over gold mining Posted: 15 Dec 2012 05:01 AM PST  The Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) and a new generation of drug gangs (known locally as "Bacrims") are increasingly turning to gold mining to finance their terrorist acts, reveals a report released Thursday by political risk firm Exclusive Analysis. "FARC and drug gang involvement in gold mining increases extortion and property damage risks, particularly in Antioquia and Putumayo," said Carlos Caicedo, head of Latin America forecasting. The expert says that funds coming from mining operations are now the main income source for the revolutionary groups. In some provinces, he added, it has overtaken drug trafficking, especially in areas controlled by the FARC. |
| Posted: 15 Dec 2012 05:01 AM PST  The first blog is with Egon von Greyerz...and it's headlined "Two Important Charts for Gold & Silver Investors". The last blog features Nigel Farage...and it's about "The Queen's Tour of Britain's Gold Vault". |
| Japan hits out at S&P over 'significant' ratings problems Posted: 15 Dec 2012 05:01 AM PST  The country's financial regulator criticised one of the world's two largest rating agencies for errors in setting and publishing ratings on complex financial derivatives. "Significant problems were identified with the company's business operations from the perspective of the public interest and investor protection," the Financial Services Agency said on Friday. Credit rating agencies were lambasted for their role in deepening the financial crisis, when mortgage-backed debt they had awarded top ratings to rapidly lost value as US house prices fell. In a ruling in Australia last month, a judge found S&P liable for assigning misleading ratings to debt acquired by local governments in the run-up to the financial collapse. |
| Market's Fed reaction could be worrying sign for Gold Posted: 15 Dec 2012 04:20 AM PST Spot market gold prices looked to be headed for a third weekly loss in a row Friday lunchtime in London, after failing to break above $1700 an ounce, while stocks and US Treasuries were little changed on the day, with no signs of progress from Washington on the so-called fiscal cliff. |
| Posted: 14 Dec 2012 11:23 PM PST Zealllc |
| Why the gold price rally is only resting and not dead Posted: 14 Dec 2012 08:06 PM PST Gold's failure to rally since the Fed statement on Wednesday can be explained by a sharp rise in yields on US treasuries this week. For once CNBC commentators are speaking sense on gold. However, this looks to be a short-term phenomenon. If we go off the so-called fiscal cliff this would be a moment for gold to stage another rally… |
| Posted: 14 Dec 2012 08:05 PM PST Apparently it's not enough to merely hammer the metals with MOPE raids, the bullion banks are also trotting out the propaganda shills in order to properly manage the public's perception of gold and silver in the wake of QE4. Our favorite cartel shill Jeffrey Christian of the CPM Group is back on BNN, spewing more [...]Check out these similar articles: |
| Bill Murphy: Blatant Post QE4 Metals Raids Indicate The Cartel is Getting Desperate Posted: 14 Dec 2012 08:00 PM PST AltInvestors has released a MUST LISTEN interview with GATA's Bill Murphy on the Fed's QE4 announcement Wednesday, in which the Fed effectively admitted to full and open monetization of the US deficit. Regarding the gold and silver raids Wednesday night and Thursday, Murphy states that the action is just farcical, there is NO EXPLANATION for [...]Check out these similar articles: |
| By the Numbers for the Week Ending December 14 Posted: 14 Dec 2012 06:04 PM PST This week's closing table is just below. |
| A Warning For Gold From Inflation, The Dollar, And Mining Stocks Posted: 14 Dec 2012 05:17 PM PST By Sy Harding: Historically, gold has been seen as a safe haven in times of rising inflation. No surprise then that it's been in a long and impressive bull market since 2002, when a string of significant events began that were expected to create a substantial surge in inflation. The 2001 recession resulted in significant monetary easing by the Fed in an effort to re-stimulate the economy. The 9/11/01 terrorist attacks resulted in dramatic increases in government spending on Homeland Security and the subsequent invasions of Afghanistan and Iraq. Those were enough to get gold going in anticipation of expected spiraling inflation. The price of gold doubled from $250 an ounce in 2002 to $500 by 2005. The inflationary expectations continued when previous federal budget surpluses turned to growing deficits as the wars were ramped up while revenues from taxes fell as the economy continued to struggle. Inflation had still not shown Complete Story » |
| Unique Ways To Invest In China's 'Silver Lining' Posted: 14 Dec 2012 04:43 PM PST By Marc Courtenay:
The news about what's happening in the world's second largest economy is at times confusing and at best contradictory. One factor removes the guess work, and that is China's new leadership and the Bank of China have lots of reasons to follow the example of the U.S. when it comes to monetary policies. Mr. Cramer's quote above hits on an important reason why. Chinese exports have been weak, and Complete Story » |
| Gold and Silver Disaggregated COT Report (DCOT) for December 14 Posted: 14 Dec 2012 04:38 PM PST HOUSTON -- This week's Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) disaggregated commitments of traders (DCOT) report was released at 15:30 ET Friday. Our recap of the changes in weekly positioning by the disaggregated trader classes, as compiled by the CFTC, is just below. In the DCOT table above a net short position shows as a negative figure in red. A net long position shows in black. In the Change column, a negative number indicates either an increase to an existing net short position or a reduction of a net long position. A black figure in the Change column indicates an increase to an existing long position or a reduction of an existing net short position. The way to think of it is that black figures in the Change column are traders getting "longer" and red figures are traders getting less long or shorter. All of the trader's positions are calculated net of spreading contracts as of the Tuesday disaggregated COT report. |
| The European Flag, Reversal Candlestick in Stocks and Precious Metals Posted: 14 Dec 2012 02:24 PM PST
Based on the December 14th, 2012 Premium Update. Visit our archives for more gold & silver analysis. Yesterday we saw substantial declines in the whole precious metals sector (the only important exception was palladium that actually managed to close higher after a huge price drop earlier during the day) even though the Fed announced Wednesday that it would continue its monthly purchases of $85 billion in Treasury bonds and mortgage-backed securities. This makes it probable that the Fed announcement was already priced into the market, hence the lack of its reaction. The Fed's action is clearly bullish for gold, silver and other precious metals in the long run, but recent developments along with weak correlation between metals and the dollar can keep precious metals bulls awake at night. Let us then move on to today's technical part to find out whether these fears are well-grounded. Today we'll focus on two groups of assets that usually influence precious metals the most: stocks and currencies. We'll start with the analysis of the Euro Index long-term chart (charts courtesy by http://stockcharts.com.) A confirmation of the breakout above the flag pattern (which was a period of consolidation) has been seen in the chart. We expected this to be broken to the upside, and that's what happened. The index did pull back to the support line and has moved higher once again. The situation is now more bullish than not, but we'll wait for a move above the 132 level before stating that the outlook is indeed bullish for the weeks ahead. Now, let's move on to the general stock market. In the long-term S&P 500 Index chart, the situation continues to be bearish for the short term. Based on the weekly closing prices, a "gravestone doji" candlestick pattern has formed this week. This is similar to the bearish shooting star candlestick pattern. Opening and closing prices being very similar are what create the "gravestone doji". The implications of this candlestick pattern are exactly the same and are a bearish signal. The bearish signs are actually doubled here because stocks reversed after moving to their 2008 highs and then reversing to the previously broken rising resistance line (several weeks ago). At this time, the outlook for the general stock market is bearish, but, with a support line at the $1,350 level, the downside seems to be quite limited. Let's now have a look at the intermarket correlations to see how the above chart could translate into future precious metals prices. The Correlation Matrix is a tool which we have developed to analyze the impact of the currency markets and the general stock market upon the precious metals sector. This week, there are not many implications here for the precious metals sector. The short-term correlations are very neutral this week so we really can't say much about the next week or two based on the currency and stock market charts. The medium-term precious metals' picture remains bullish as there are significant negative correlations between the precious metals and the USD Index (thus the positive situation in the Euro Index is positive also for gold). Positive correlation is seen between stocks and the precious metals, so the limited downside for stocks is a bullish factor for the metals in the medium term. Summing up, the outlook for the Euro Index is more bullish than not which directly translates into a bearish one in the U.S. dollar, especially after what we saw on the charts for the U.S. currency in our article a week ago. Stocks have a short-term bearish outlook but the downside is limited. Both: the medium- and long-term perspectives are bullish. This is not due to an improvement in US economic indicators, however, but rather due to the steps taken by the Fed, which are likely to push nominal stock prices higher. This does not directly translate to any precious metals price moves since correlations are quite insignificant with both markets over the past 30 days. However, when we take the medium term into account, the positive correlation between precious metals and the general stock market suggests that the limited downside potential in stocks as well as their positive medium- and long-term outlooks are bullish for metals. Since the medium-term correlation between precious metals and the dollar is strong and negative, the same bullish implications for the metals follow. Thank you for reading. Have a great and profitable week! Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA * * * * * About Sunshine Profits Sunshine Profits enables anyone to forecast market changes with a level of accuracy that was once only available to closed-door institutions. It provides free trial access to its best investment tools (including lists of best gold stocks and best silver stocks), proprietary gold & silver indicators, buy & sell signals, weekly newsletter, and more. Seeing is believing. Disclaimer All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be a subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses were based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are believed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.  |
| Posted: 14 Dec 2012 01:45 PM PST Read the Thursday Afternoon Wrap-up for 12/13/2012 and the Friday Morning Commentary for 12/14/2012 In yesterday's RANT – "GOLD STANDARD…OR FREE GOLD" – I wrote of how I disagreed with half of Ambrose Pritchard-Evans' big-picture views, as espoused in the below article… "Europe and America will not allow deflation to take root" …but NONE more so than the following; of how 'poor little banks' are victims of a simple business cycle – unfairly restrained when they should be unleashed… You will not solve the global economic problem by cracking down on banks. I'm sorry; the opposite is the case right now. One of the reasons we are not recovering from this slow motion depression is because banks are being forced to boost their capital ratios. The EU regulations are forcing them to put aside more and more capital –and these amounts are going up and up and up. This means they have to shrink lending, sell assets, and de-leverage. I'm all in favour of doing that, but you do it during a boom, not a bust. You should be counter cyclical, not pro cyclical. This is a fundamental error. They should have been doing this in 2005-2007, in what's called in central banking "leaning against the wind". So as credit growth gets out of control, you should step in and fighting it. You throw everything you've got at it. Singapore, Hong Kong and others have been very good at this. What they've learned to do with their property markets is cut the loan to value ratio on mortgages – it goes to eighty percent; then to seventy percent, sixty percent, fifty percent, etc., until you basically can't borrow anymore to get a mortgage because they simply shut it down. You can do these things, but these sorts of controls are for booms. When you're in a bust, you do the opposite: you loosen up, you actually make it easier for banks. What they are doing right now is classic: closing the stable door after the horse has bolted, it's too late. Perhaps he doesn't realize these "victims" – together with their subordinates at the Federal Reserve – have been the most significant factor behind ALL major economic crashes of the past century; particularly those in 1929, 2000, and 2008. That is; it was their fraudulent actions – like lobbying to repeal Glass-Steagall; collecting taxpayer-funded bailouts via the intimidation of ex-Goldman Sachs CEO Hank Paulson; shoddy lending practices; reckless proprietary trading – often against client recommendations; and the "financial engineering" that produced market-destroying derivatives; that turned a "normal business cycle" into a global calamity – which CANNOT be fixed. Moreover, such "constraints" are, for starters, a JOKE. Does Pritchard mean the so-called "Basel III" capital adequacy ratios – created by Wall Street's own Central bank, the "Bank of International Settlements"? That is, the "regulations" that not only were just "delayed" until the end of 2013… Regulators say EU to delay Basel bank capital rules …but won't be required to be adhered to until 2018-2019? Meanwhile, the Fed has been pumping trillions of "liquidity" (i.e., PRINTED MONEY) into the banking system; practically BEGGING Wall Street to lend it out. But lo and behold, the largely insolvent banks – care of trillions of overvalued mortgage assets and underwater derivatives – won't do it; instead, recycling such FREE funds (care of "ZIRP") to the Fed for the FREE profits generated in the "carry trade"; which, in turn, artificially suppresses interest rates, accelerating the capital destruction process…
The above chart clearly depicts a banking system amidst a MAJOR cash flow crunch. However, care of the now infamous 2009 FASB rule changes that allow banks to "mark to fantasy" their inventory of toxic assets (doesn't sound "restraining" to me)… Wall Street celebrates accounting rule changes designed to hide losses …as well as the insider information TBTF banks are privy to with their unethical, illegal HFT algorithms… Goldman Sachs Traders Lost Money on Just One Day in Quarter …these CRIMINALS report "profits"; so much so, that 88% of this year's S&P 500 earnings will be generated by just ten companies; Apple, IBM, General Electric (which also has a HUGE financial/derivatives arm), Western Digital; and seven TBTF banks – including some of the most vile, corrupt, insolvent names on EARTH….
Yes, after world-beating Apple – which actually produces something – America's most "profitable" companies; amidst a MASSIVE recession, ALL-TIME HIGH loan delinquencies, and MULTI-DECADE LOWS in real estate prices, are… Bank of America AIG Goldman Sacks Wells Fargo JP Morgan IBM – which also produces something; and Citibank …although clearly their recent actions don't belie such strength… Citigroup to cut 11,000 jobs and take $1-billion charge …and consequently, while the ENTIRE WORLD suffers from the CRIMES these disgusting, government-partnered filth perpetrated… Bankers nabbed in bid-rigging scandal Wall St. Helped to Mask Debt, Fueling Europe's Crisis High Frequency Trading: Wall Street's Doomsday Machine? Derivatives are Financial Weapons of Mass Destruction – Warren Buffett SEC Charges Goldman Sachs With Fraud in Structuring and Marketing of CDO Tied to Subprime Mortgages HSBC to pay $1.9 billion U.S. fine in money-laundering case JPMorgan's London Whale Losses Could Hit $9 Billion Audit of the Federal Reserve Reveals $16 Trillion in Secret Bailouts Corzine Decisions Felled MF Global …they still get to run roughshod over the corpses they've created; in the President's cabinet… JP Morgan's Bill Daley named White House Chief of Staff Jack Lew New White House Chief Of Staff – Former Hedge Fund Mortgage Credit Default Swap CEO List of Goldman Sachs employees in the White House …GLOBAL Central banks… William C. Dudley – Federal Reserve Bank of New York ECB Head Forced To Defend His Goldman "Conflicts Of Interest" Goldman's Global Domination Is Now Complete As Its Mark Carney Takes Over Bank Of England …and foreign governments… Goldman Sachs International Advisor Mario Monti Is Italy's New Prime Minister Goldman Sachs adds Greece to its portfolio …while doting, CRIMINAL politicians – who receive ENORMOUS Wall Street campaign contributions – BEG for more PRINTED MONEY for Pritchard's "victims"… Chuck Schumer To CTRL-P "Get To Work Mr. Chairman"… For The Benefit Of My Donors …enabling Wall Street to be the market's best performing sector this year… …and thus – amidst a horrific year for the non-TBTF businesses (the below headlines are from Tuesday)… So Much For "Confidence" – NFIB Small Business Outlook Drops To Record Low October US Exports Plunge By Most Since January 2009 As Trade Deficit With China Hits Record …Wall Street bonuses will again go up… Bonuses on Wall St. Expected to Edge Up So, to "Ambrose Pritchard-Evans;" I suggest you pull your high-fallutin nose out of textbooks – and bankers' cumulative arse; and see the world for what it is – "D–N THE BANKS!" PROTECT YOURSELF, and do it NOW! Call Miles Franklin at 800-822-8080, and talk to one of our brokers. Through industry-leading customer service and competitive pricing, we aim to EARN your business.
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| Posted: 14 Dec 2012 01:25 PM PST The horrible news out of Connecticut this morning should help us all to put things in their proper perspective. It is not possible to find the words to describe the anquish, pain, despair, anger, grief and desolation that has now engulfed the families of all those impacted by the contemptible actions of a worthless maggot whose warped mind somehow convinced himself that the methodical slaughter of innocent human beings, especially little children, was nothing of consequence. "...Whoever causes one of these little ones who believe in Me to stumble, it is better for him that a heavy millstone be hung around his neck, and that he be drowned in the depth of the sea. Woe to the world because of its stumbling blocks! For it is inevitable that stumbling blocks come; but woe to that man through whom the stumbling block comes". (Matt 18: 6-7). Just the other day it was another senseless shooting in an Oregon mall. Not all that long ago we remember the terrible shooting at the movie theater in Aurora, Colorado. These tragedies remind us of the brevity and uncertainty of life and of our own mortality. They are also a sad testimony to the decay in our culture and the decline of our nation. We are witnessing a breakdown in ethics, virtue, and morality, as well as the loss of the sense of righteousess versus sin, and the blurring of the lines between good and evil that has marked the fall of every great civilization throughout history. Sadly, there is NOTHING politicians can do to deal with the moral rot that has now infected this land. Changing the human heart lies solely in the province of the Almighty. But as more and more He is banished to the outskirts of society, as His laws are treated with contempt if not indifference or even mockery, what can one expect? Human nature, left to itself is no different than a dead fish - it cannot swim upstream but always follows the path of least resistance and that path always tends towards corruption. I fear for our nation's future in a way I have never feared for it before at any point in my life. What area of our society has not been coarsened? Whether it is in the financial realm where far too often these days it seems we witness fraud, decadence, vice, etc. or in the culture, in its music, which seems to become more degraded with the passing of each year, or in so many of its movies which empitomize the empty souls of an increasingly larger and larger share of our population. Everywhere one looks it seems as if the nation is spiraling downward. "Righteousness exalts a nation but sin is a disgrace to any people" says the Scripture. Nothing further can be added to that except this: "The law of the Lord is perfect, restoring the soul; the testimony of the Lord is sure, making wise the simple. The precepts of the Lord are right, rejoicing the heart; the commandment of the Lord is pure, enlightening the eyes. The fear of the Lord is clean, enduring forever; the judgments of the Lord are true; they are righteous altogether.; they are MORE DESIRABLE THAN GOLD, YEAH, THAN MUCH FINE GOLD; sweeter also than the honey and the drippings of the honeycomb. Moreover, by them Thy servant is warned, in keeping them there is great reward." (Psalm 19: 7-9). Please keep these things in mind as we are reminded that it was at this season the Son of God came into this earth, to suffer and to die in the place of guilty sinners and to thereby offer His own spotless life as the REDEMPTION for all those who believe in Him. At times like this we are made mindful of the fact that we are all sinners and only but for the grace of God, there is no level to which we all might stoop were we left to ourselves. Sadly, one wonders if that is not EXACTLY what the MOST HIGH is indeed doing to this nation. As He turns HIS BACK on us, in response to the nation turning its back on Him, I see no hope for any restoration of this once great nation's future.  |
| Confirming Silver’s Young Upleg Posted: 14 Dec 2012 12:18 PM PST Although you wouldn't know it from listening to all the bearish commentary out there, silver is actually enjoying a strong young upleg. Its technicals are very bullish, contradicting the prevailing pessimism gripping traders.  |
| Posted: 14 Dec 2012 12:02 PM PST Poll: Supermajority of Americans finally support climate action |
| Market’s Fed Reaction “Could Be Worrying Sign for Gold” as “Bear Stance Supported by Price Move” Posted: 14 Dec 2012 12:01 PM PST SPOT MARKET gold prices looked to be headed for a third weekly loss in a row Friday lunchtime in London, after failing to break above $1700 an ounce, while stocks and US Treasuries were little changed on the day, with no signs of progress from Washington on the so-called fiscal cliff. Silver was also headed for a third losing week in a row, trading around $32.60 an ounce for most of this morning, as other commodity prices gained slightly. "A lack of activity has kept precious metals largely unchanged this morning," says today's commodities note from Standard Bank. A day earlier, gold dropped back below $1700 an ounce Thursday, despite the US Federal Reserve committing to $45 billion a month in Treasury purchases the day before. "The bulls were making the argument that the central bank would remain easy, at least until 2015, helping provide an element of support for gold," says a note from Ed Meir, analyst at brokerage INTL FCStone. "The bears countered that there would not be any additional easing in the pipeline between now and 2015, and also pointed out that the Fed did, after all, outline specific targets at which point it would start shrinking its bloated balance sheet…Thursday's action seems to have supported the bearish stance." "It is perhaps a worrying sign that the latest installment of QE has had no positive impact on gold prices at all," says a note from investment bank Natixis. "No matter which side of the Fed argument one is on," says INTL FCStone's Meir, "we suspect that much of Thursday's selling was also triggered by the fact that investors are becoming increasingly nervous about the lack of progress emanating from the fiscal cliff talks." President Obama and Republican House of Representatives speaker John Boehner had what statements from both parties called a "frank" meeting about the so-called fiscal cliff Thursday, adding that "lines of communication remain open" between the two. No agreement has been reached on deficit reduction measures. Unless Congress passes new legislation, tax cut expiries and spending cuts worth an estimated $600 billion are due to kick in starting at the end of this month. Barclays Capital meantime has cut its gold price forecast for 2013. BarCap forecasts gold will average $1815 an ounce next year, 2.4% down on the previous projection, while the investment bank's forecast for silver is unchanged at $32.50 an ounce. "We retain a positive view on the gold market," a note from BarCap says, "but given gold's outperformance during risk on intervals and our [foreign exchange] strategists' expectation for the Dollar to strengthen beyond three months, we are revising down our forecast for 2013 modestly." European Council president Herman van Rompuy issued a statement from the European Union summit in Brussels saying he will "present possible measures and a time-bound road map" at a summit in June next year. Eurozone inflation meantime fell to 2.2% last month, down from 2.5% in October, according to official figures published this morning. US consumer inflation data are due to be published at 08.30 EST. Demand to buy gold in physical bullion form has seen a resurgence in recent weeks, according to Standard Bank's proprietary Gold Physical Flows Index. Gold importers in the world's biggest gold buying nation India continued to stock up Friday, newswire Reuters reports, to ensure adequate supplies for the wedding season. "People feel this is a good buying opportunity as prices could jump another 1000 Rupees [per 10 grams]," says Harshad Ajmera at JJ Gold House. Activity in China's manufacturing sector meantime looks set to expand at a stronger pace this month compared to November, according to the provisional 'flash' purchasing managers index published by HSBC Friday. China's silver market meantime is "expected to achieve even further growth in coming years" on both the demand and supply side following a decade of rapid expansion, according to a report produced by precious metals consultancy Thomson Reuters GFMS and published by the Silver Institute Thursday. "China is now the world's second largest silver fabricator and is likely to become the second largest producer, with its share of global demand and supply standing at 17% and 14% respectively," the report says. Ben Traynor Gold value calculator | Buy gold online at live prices Editor of Gold News, the analysis and investment research site from world-leading gold ownership service BullionVault, Ben Traynor was formerly editor of the Fleet Street Letter, the UK's longest-running investment letter. A Cambridge economics graduate, he is a professional writer and editor with a specialist interest in monetary economics. Ben writes and presents BullionVault's weekly gold market summary on YouTube and can be found on Google+ (c) BullionVault 2012 Please Note: This article is to inform your thinking, not lead it. Only you can decide the best place for your money, and any decision you make will put your money at risk. Information or data included here may have already been overtaken by events – and must be verified elsewhere – should you choose to act on it.  |
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