saveyourassetsfirst3 |
- 8 Reasons To Buy Gold And Other Inflation Protection Now
- Prominent Value Investor's 5 Dividend Picks
- Huge fall in South African gold output in October
- Silver sales set to outshine gold in India
- 'Massive, Open-Ended Stimulus' Expected from Fed
- Egon von Greyerz: We will see stocks crash in 2013 – Gold to soar
- Sales of American Eagle Coins Soar (FT)
- Are Precious Metals Futures Heading for a Crisis?
- Secret IMF Report: Hide Gold Loans and Swaps For Market Manipulation
- Liberty Dollars ban goes into effect at eBay
- Adrian Ash: When governments steal gold
- Mike Kosares: Saving gold -- old reliable stands tall in crisis atmosphere
- Alasdair Macleod: Markets, not Paul van Eeden, determine value
- Peter Grandich: What a Turnaround in Junior Gold Mining Stocks Will Look Like
- GoldMoney introduces gold and silver storage in Singapore
- Gold Confiscation: Lessons from the 20th Century
- Money Supply Instability
- Will the Government Confiscate Your Gold?
- The World Is Changing And Ignoring This Reality Is Not Healthy
- Where Friedman Went Wrong
- Recessions the World Over
- Don’t Bet on Saudi America
- Eric Sprott today on RT with LL
- Gold “Respecting Uptrend”, Berlusconi Speaks of “Desperation” at Returning to Public Life after Monti Announces Resignation Plan
- S7: Silver, Are the Elite the whole problem?
- Silver: The Investment of This Decade
| 8 Reasons To Buy Gold And Other Inflation Protection Now Posted: 11 Dec 2012 07:09 AM PST By Efficient Alpha: The Federal Open Market Committee [FOMC] starts its last meeting of the year on Tuesday with market participants watching for how the Fed will transition from Operation Twist. The program, formally the Maturity Extension Program, began in September 2011 and involved the selling of $45 billion in short-term paper to fund the purchase of long-term bonds. The idea was to "twist" the yield curve to reduce rates on longer-term assets and lower borrowing costs. While the committee is expected to transition to another program of monetary easing and to continue purchasing roughly the same amount of long-term bonds, the announcement could lead to an increase in expectations for pricing pressures because of the mechanics of the new program. This could lead to strong gains in gold and other inflation-protected investments, which should also find longer-term support in the changing voting structure of the group next year. Let's Twist again… Complete Story » |
| Prominent Value Investor's 5 Dividend Picks Posted: 11 Dec 2012 06:56 AM PST By Dividendinvestr: By Serkan Unal Boasting 40 years of experience in the financial industry and overseeing more than $60 billion, Jean-Marie Eveillard is a French-born value investor who currently serves as the senior adviser and Board Trustee to First Eagle Funds. First Eagle Funds include Global Fund, Overseas Fund, U.S. Value Fund, Gold Fund, Global Income Builder Fund, First Eagle Fund of America, and High Yield Fund, representing a "fully complementary range of value-oriented investment options across the capital structure." Eveillard had been one of Wall Street's best value investors, earlier having served as a manager of the noted Funds. Over his 26 years at the helm, he managed to produce average annual returns of 15.8% in his First Eagle Global Fund, outperforming the average annual return of 13.7% for the S&P 500. Jean Marie has won many prestigious awards in his career. In 2001, Morningstar, Inc. co-honored him as "Stock Complete Story » |
| Huge fall in South African gold output in October Posted: 11 Dec 2012 05:27 AM PST Stick a fork in SA... Huge fall in South African gold output in October South African gold output continues to decline with a big fall in October, largely due to the wildcat strikes which closed down much of the industry during the month. Author: Lawrence Williams Posted: Tuesday , 11 Dec 2012 LONDON (Mineweb) - According to Statistics South Africa, the country's gold output fell by 45.7 percent in volume in October while total overall mineral production was down 7.7 percent compared with the same month in 2012. Copper production fell by an even greater 56.4% year on year, but this is far less significant for the country's economy. Seasonally adjusted mining production decreased by 7.9% in October compared with September. This followed month-on-month changes of -7.0% in September and 2.4% in August. The major cause of the fall in gold output was, of course the devastating effects of the mine wildcat strikes which by October had started to fall away at the platinum and other mines. These hit the gold mines hard at that stage with production by the country's two top gold miners, AngloGold Ashanti and Gold Fields virtually shut down for the month in perhaps partly politically-motivated inter-union strife. The strikes often involved violence and intimidation, some of which is still lingering on, although in a minor manner. For the South African economy as a whole the labour tribulations experienced in the mining sector, which also had a minor knock-on effect in other industries. Overall the country's economic growth has been hit quite hard – September quarter statistics showed that GDP growth fell to an annualised 1.2% - the lowest growth rate since 2009 – and October figures may well see growth slow further as the fall in gold production and earnings has an impact. Many of South Africa's key earning gold and platinum mines are at best marginal at current metals prices and with labour accounting for a large proportion of mine costs, the problems being experienced by the industry are bound to lead to mine closures and/or labour number reductions which may not be acceptable to the country's government. Should this happen there will undoubtedly be renewed calls from factions in the ruling African National Congress party for nationalisation of the country's mines – a policy not favoured at the moment by the government itself. However, coming back to the gold output fall, South Africa is already slipping down the rankings of major gold producing nations – where it was the world's dominant producer for virtually the whole of the 20th Century and the first few years of the current one, and with it seeing reductions in gold output for virtually every month of 2012 it will undoubtedly slip further when the annual statistics are tallied. Last year it was the fourth largest producer after China, Australia and the USA and this year it could well fall another notch – below Russia. http://www.mineweb.com/mineweb/conte...6218&sn=Detail |
| Silver sales set to outshine gold in India Posted: 11 Dec 2012 05:21 AM PST Silver sales set to outshine gold in India Investors in India are bullish on silver, saying the white metal is in position for a potentially spectacular move over the next year and more. Author: Shivom Seth Posted: Tuesday , 11 Dec 2012 MUMBAI (Mineweb) - Indian retailers are bullish on silver. With supplies tightening, deliveries are slowing down this week in the bullion market in Mumbai. What has also buoyed sentiment is that silver continues to lead precious metals, and sales have jumped over 24% this year. Snapping a two day losing trend, both the major precious metals, gold and silver, bounced back in the Mumbai market on buying by retailers at existing low levels. While gold rebounded to $575 (Rs 31,205) per 10 grams (US$1788/oz), silver gained by 1.38% to $1,159.49 (Rs 62,930) per kilo ($36.06/oz). "Strong support is expected in the Silver March contract around $1,159 (Rs 62,900) ($36.05) from the start of the week," said analysts tracking the white metal. Traders have been taking long position in the Silver March contract above $1,161.49 (Rs 63,050) ($36.13) for target near $1,178.88 (Rs 64,000) ($36.67) for this week, they added. Silver prices have remained steady at around $32 since mid-May. "Though everybody has been gushing about the returns that gold has given over the past four years, it is the white metal that has streaked ahead," said Manjusha Madani, bullion analyst at an investment house. She added that silver prices have jumped from $304.39 (Rs 16,525) per kilo ($9.47/oz) in 2008 to $1,381.95 (Rs 75,020) per kilo ($42.98) in 2011, a gain of 354%. Though prices have dropped per kilo, it does not mean that the potential in silver is exhausted, she added. An analyst report had also shown how silver had risen about 53% from December 2008 through March 2010, twice as much as gold. Silver is expected to keep beating gold. "More and more people are realising the value of investing in silver coins and bullion bars in India," added Jayeshbhai Shah, a bullion retailer at Mumbai's Zaveri Bazaar. "The value of silver has increased rather steadily for the last few years. People who have never invested before are now investing in silver, because they know that buying silver is a great way to ensure that their money is there when they need it," he added. SILVER JEWELLERY "The white metal is now turning out to be the preferred choice for everyday wear, with exquisite silver jewellery on offer, because gold is too expensive. Besides being trendy and contemporary, the metal readily blends with a variety of clothing and other accessories, thereby offering a suite of options to the wearer," said an official at Dhanabhai Export House. He added that more and more consumers were looking for traditional or contemporary silver jewellery and were even looking at the white metal for classic business gifts, to be given during the festive season. "There are customers who comes to us asking us for heritage art, or even our temple jewellery selection, which is only made in silver. We take great pride in preserving our heritage craft and have several jewellery items that are exact replicas of antique temple jewellery," he added. During 2011-12, silver jewellery exports grew to 44% as compared with gold jewellery exports of 30%. India is the biggest consumer of white metal jewellery, and has also found a new class of buyers in the West. Ketan Shroff, managing director of Pushpak Bullions said investors and jewellery-lovers prefer silver jewellery these days, as gold prices are going up constantly. Silver prices are expected to rise further, if one takes into account the demand potential. GOLD HIGH Retailers pointed out that the recent drop in gold prices has sparked off reasonable buying interest in both gold and silver from stockists and retail consumers across the country, given the long wedding season. The yellow metal had plunged to a one month low last Thursday, leading to frenzied buying. However, analysts added, that after gaining around 16% this year, gold prices are unlikely to cross the $589.44 (Rs 32,000)/10g ($1833) mark in the near term, given the year end profit booking activities. This allows investors to take a better look at silver, in the near term, they added. Meanwhile, data by GFMS, a Thomson Reuters unit, indicates that the silver markets are in for a surplus. The 2012 surplus is estimated at around 3,000 tonnes even as 2013 surplus is pegged at about 4,000 tonnes, but, of course this doesn't take investment demand into account (see Silver surplus – what silver surplus?). Gold and silver prices generally rise when sentiments on the economy and the financial markets are bearish or there is uncertainty over future trends. Retailers point out that silver has also gained from investment demand in the country. There has also been an increase in demand for silver jewellery, due to the fact that gold is becoming out of reach for many. http://www.mineweb.com/mineweb/conte...6125&sn=Detail |
| 'Massive, Open-Ended Stimulus' Expected from Fed Posted: 11 Dec 2012 05:01 AM PST The wholesale gold price rose to $1,712 an ounce Tuesday morning in London, a few dollars above where they started the week, while stocks edged higher and US Treasury bonds fell ahead of tomorrow's Federal Reserve policy decision.  |
| Egon von Greyerz: We will see stocks crash in 2013 – Gold to soar Posted: 11 Dec 2012 04:52 AM PST Egon von Greyerz (EvG): Founder and Managing Partner of Matterhorn Asset Management AG & GoldSwitzerland – EvG forecasted the current economic problems over 10 years ago. In 2002 (gold $300/ oz.) MAM recommended to its investors to put 50% of their investment assets into physical gold stored outside the banking system. EvG specialises in M&A and Asset allocation consultancy for private family funds. MAM (based in Zurich, Switzerland) specialises in wealth preservation for high net worth individuals as well as institutions. The GoldSwitzerland Division was created to facilitate the buying and storage of physical gold and silver for private investors, companies, trusts and pension funds. Listen @ kingworldnews.com ~DF |
| Sales of American Eagle Coins Soar (FT) Posted: 11 Dec 2012 04:50 AM PST http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/05c33e94-3...#axzz2EkNPtw6Y December 10, 2012 12:53 pm Sales of American Eagle gold coins soar By Jack Farchy Demand for gold coins in the US has soared since the presidential election, as small investors fret about the lack of action to address America's ballooning debt. The US Mint's sales of American Eagles, one of the most popular gold coins, leapt 131 per cent in November, hitting their highest level in more than two years. The Royal Canadian Mint also had its strongest month of sales this year. Terry Hanlon, president of metals at Dillon Gage, one of the largest bullion dealers in the country, said sales had risen sharply "within a day or two" of the election. "You've got a lot of people who are very worried about the economy. With the election they saw that nothing was going to change," he said. While coins are a small part of the overall gold market, the jump in sales highlights gold's role as the favoured investment of disenchanted Americans. The political gridlock in Washington and the prospect of further quantitative easing when the Federal Reserve's "operation twist" expires at the end of this year have fuelled demand for precious metals among small investors. "They don't believe in Uncle Sam any more," said the head of precious metals at a large bank. Tobina Kahn, who runs a jewellery dealership in Chicago, said: "Obama did me a favour in some ways. Now people are buying gold and jewels not because they like them but because of fear. They're trying to protect their wealth." Despite the increase in coin purchases, the gold market has struggled for momentum in recent weeks. Prices last week dropped below $1,685 a troy ounce for the first time in a month and some hedge funds have begun to lose patience with the precious metal's lacklustre performance. "The institutional investors cut back and are more on the sidelines now," said James Steel, head of precious metals strategy at HSBC in New York. "But the coin market is dominated by retail investors and the man on the street is still pretty committed to gold." The jump in sales of American Eagles was amplified by a rush among dealers to stock up before the end of the year when the US Mint switches production from "2012" to "2013" coins. But dealers said the rise in sales largely reflected a big increase in demand. Mr Hanlon said that Dillon Gage had record sales volumes on several days in November and that overall sales had risen 32 per cent by volume from October's levels. Other mints also witnessed a buying spree. "November was a very strong month for gold Maple Leaf sales," said Chris Carkner, head of bullion sales at the Royal Canadian Mint, whose Maple Leaf coins are one of the world's top gold coins by circulation along with American Eagles. |
| Are Precious Metals Futures Heading for a Crisis? Posted: 11 Dec 2012 03:46 AM PST The silver does not exist to cover these short positions, and it will take very little further buying to set off a crisis in this important market. On this evidence, and assuming the trend continues, there will shortly be a declaration of force majeure.  |
| Secret IMF Report: Hide Gold Loans and Swaps For Market Manipulation Posted: 11 Dec 2012 03:27 AM PST ¤ Yesterday in Gold and SilverIt was a very quiet day in the gold world yesterday. The price didn't do much until early in the afternoon Hong Kong time...and the small rally that began at that point ran into a seller about ten minutes after the Comex open. The sell-off, such as it was, was over by the London p.m. gold fix...and then gold traded sideways into the close of electronic trading. Gold closed at $1,712.60 spot...up $8.10 on the day. Volume was extremely light...around 84,000 contracts. It was pretty much the same story in silver, with silver's high tick coming at the same 8:30 a.m. Eastern time as gold's...and from there got sold down into the London p.m. gold fix...and traded sideways from there as well. Silver closed at $33.27 spot...up 16 cents on the day. Volume was around 24,500 contracts. The dollar index didn't do much either. It rallied a hair...and it's high tick of the day [80.55] came about a half hour before the London open...and then declined about twenty-five basis points by the 8:20 a.m. Comex open. The index didn't do a lot from that point...and closed at 80.33...down less than 10 basis points from Friday's close. The gold stocks gapped up over a percent at the open...and hung onto most of those gains. By the close of trading the HUI was in the black to the tune of 1.20%. As a group, the silver stocks did better...and quite a few of the stocks in Nick Laird's Silver Sentiment Index did very well for themselves. It closed up 2.36%. (Click on image to enlarge) The CME's Daily Delivery Report showed that 45 gold and 128 silver contracts were posted for delivery on Wednesday. In silver, the big short/issuer was Jefferies with 123 of those contracts...and the two largest long/stoppers were JPMorgan and the Bank of Nova Scotia with 104 contracts between them. No surprises there. The link to yesterday's Issuers and Stoppers Report is here. There were no reported changes in either SLV or GLD. But the U.S. Mint had another sales report. They sold 2,500 ounces of gold eagles...and 300,000 silver eagles. It was a quiet day over at the Comex-approved depositories on Friday. They received 97,664 troy ounces of silver...and shipped out a smallish 2,000 ounces of the stuff. The link to that activity is here. Well, I received a reply from the ombudsman at the Bank of Nova Scotia yesterday...and I must admit that I was somewhat taken aback by his answer. Not only did he answer a question I didn't ask...he didn't answer the question I did ask...and I also got blown off as well...along with the comment that I shouldn't share the contents of this e-mail with anyone other than "a professional advisor (such as your lawyer or accountant) or the Ombudsman for Banking Services and Investments"...because their reply to me was "confidential". I must admit that I expected to be treated better than this. I guess my illusion that Canadian banks would be nicer than their American counterparts just got shredded. Anyway, as promised, here is the e-mail I received in its entirety... Dear Mr. Steer, Nowhere in that reply did I see them say....no, it wasn't them. I got the impression that I was asked to take a long walk off a short pier. I will try one more time...and let you know I make out. Of course the real question that I asked the CEO of the Bank of Nova Scotia [and the ombudsman] was this... "All I need to know is if the "non-U.S. bank" that the CFTC is referring to in its comments below...and on its Bank Participation Report home page...is The Bank of Nova Scotia - Scotia Mocatta. "A simple 'yes' or 'no' answer will suffice. The comment states... "The October 2012 Bank Participation Report includes COMEX gold and COMEX silver futures and options positions for a newly classified non-U.S. bank, based upon the entity's self-description on its latest CFTC Form 40. Given the methodology of the Bank Participation Report, the entity's most recent Form 40 submission results in all of its futures and options positions now being included within the report. For more information on the methodology used for the Bank Participation Report, see Explanatory Notes" [Emphasis is mine. - Ed] Here's a chart that Nick Laird sent me on the weekend it showed the average intraday price moves for silver during November. Once you average out all 19 trading days, the price pattern is obvious. (Click on image to enlarge) I have way too many stories today...and I'm happy to leave the final edit up to you. There are a lot of precious metals-related stories...and quite a few of them fall into the must read category. Today is the 1-day FOMC meeting...and I have no idea what that portends for the precious metals...if anything. IMF study in 1999 found 80 central banks lending 15% of official gold reserves. Market manipulation discussed by Sprott on Russia Today. Adrian Ash: When governments steal gold. Silver surplus – what silver surplus? ¤ Critical ReadsSubscribe73% of New Jobs Created in Last 5 Months Are in GovernmentIn June, a total of 142,415,000 people were employed in the U.S, according to the BLS, including 19,938,000 who were employed by federal, state and local governments. By November, according to data BLS released today, the total number of people employed had climbed to 143,262,000, an overall increase of 847,000 in the six months since June. In the same five-month period since June, the number of people employed by government increased by 621,000 to 20,559,000. These 621,000 new government jobs created in the last five months equal 73.3 percent of the 847,000 new jobs created overall. This story was posted on the cnsnews.com Internet site on Friday...and it's a story that I found in yesterday's edition of the King Report. The link is here.  Food Stamps Soar By Most In 16 Months: Over 1 Million Americans Enter Poverty In Last Two MonthsAnd we thought last month's delayed food stamp data was bad. The just reported food stamp number for September was a doozy, with 607,544 new Americans becoming eligible for food stamps, as a record 47.7 million Americans are now living in poverty at least according to the USDA. The monthly increase was the highest since May 2011, and with August's 421K new impoverished America, over 1 million Americans made the EBT card their new best friend. This is a very short read...but it's the graphs that make this a must read...and I thank West Virginia reader Elliot Simon for sending it. It was posted over at the Zero Hedge website on Sunday...and the link is here.  Mortgage Crisis Presents a New Reckoning to BanksThe nation's largest banks are facing a fresh torrent of lawsuits asserting that they sold shoddy mortgage securities that imploded during the financial crisis, potentially adding significantly to the tens of billions of dollars the banks have already paid to settle other cases. Regulators, prosecutors, investors and insurers have filed dozens of new claims against Bank of America, JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo, Citigroup and others, related to more than $1 trillion worth of securities backed by residential mortgages. Estimates of potential costs from these cases vary widely, but some in the banking industry fear they could reach $300 billion if the institutions lose all of the litigation. Depending on the final price tag, the costs could lower profits and slow the economic recovery by weakening the banks' ability to lend just as the housing market is showing signs of life. This story showed up on The New York Times website on Sunday sometime...and I thank Phil Barlett for bringing it to our attention. The link is here.  School District Owes $1 Billion On $100 Million LoanMore than 200 school districts across California are taking a second look at the high price of the debt they've taken on using risky financial arrangements. Collectively, the districts have borrowed billions in loans that defer payments for years — leaving many districts owing far more than they borrowed. In 2010, officials at the West Contra Costa School District, just east of San Francisco, were in a bind. The district needed $2.5 million to help secure a federally subsidized $25 million loan to build a badly needed elementary school. Those bonds, known as CABs, are unlike typical bonds, where a school district is required to make immediate and regular payments. Instead, CABs allow districts to defer payments well into the future — by which time lots of interest has accrued. In the West Contra Costa Schools' case, that $2.5 million bond will cost the district a whopping $34 million to repay. I'd bet big money that Wall Street and/or the 'Big 5' U.S. banks are behind all those 'loans'. This showed up on the National Public Radio website yesterday...and the story is courtesy of reader Scott Pluschau. The link is here.  Chilton blasts 'puny' fine in case where Goldman Sachs used fake tradesAn outspoken regulator lashed out at a $1.5 million settlement between Goldman Sachs and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, calling the deal a steal for the Wall Street bank. Bart Chilton, a CFTC commissioner, described the cash amount as "puny" and "a slap on the wrist" when compared to the whopping $8.3 billion trade at the center of the case. In 2007, a Goldman trader hid the outsize trade as the market unraveled. "This is another example of where puny penalties send the wrong message for these guys who are breaking the law," Chilton told The Post. Well, Bart...let's see what you have to say when your buddies at JPMorgan Chase and the CME Group get out of the silver and gold price management scheme without going to jail, or paying a fine. Where's your righteous indignation when it comes to JPMorgan Chase/Scotiabank price management scheme in silver? This story showed on the New York Post website on Saturday...and I found it in a GATA release. The link is here.  Jim Rickards: Fed is Trying to Import InflationWe haven't heard much from Jim lately...but he makes up for it here in this 3:01 minute Bloomberg video from last Wednesday. Jim says that "gold is absolutely the place to be." This makes the clip a must watch...and I thank Australian reader Wesley Legrand for bringing it to our attention. The link is here.
 Central Banks Ponder Going Beyond Inflation MandatesInside the world's oldest central bank, a new debate is raging over a dilemma facing monetary authorities around the globe. Policy makers at Sweden's 344-year-old Riksbank and elsewhere are arguing about how far they can look beyond their price mandates and focus instead on economic growth, employment or financial stability when inflation threats are either not pressing or deemed to be passing. This marks a shift from three decades in which central bankers battled inflation, an enemy they understood so well that most made it their singular emphasis in the 1990s. "There are lots of things central banks are worried about at the moment, and inflation is not the highest priority," said Stephen King, chief economist at HSBC Holdings Plc in London and a former U.K. Treasury official. "As long as people believe central banks are committed over the longer term to price stability, there is leeway to play around with other objectives." Such as??? I can't believe he said that! Be very afraid. This Bloomberg story was posted on their website in the wee hours of yesterday morning Mountain Standard Time...and I thank Casey Research's own David Galland for sending it along. The link is here.  Liberty Dollars ban goes into effect at eBay Posted: 11 Dec 2012 03:27 AM PST  At the request of the U.S. Secret Service, eBay has begun purging the online auction site of listings offering for sale Liberty Dollar medallions in gold, silver, platinum and copper. Officials at eBay indicate the systematic removal beginning Nov. 29 of the listings is intended to conform with its policy implemented Feb. 20 banning the listing of counterfeits and replicas on eBay.com. In emails sent by eBay to sellers whose listings for Liberty Dollars were canceled, officials at the online auction site expressed their regrets for having to take the action. |
| Adrian Ash: When governments steal gold Posted: 11 Dec 2012 03:27 AM PST  In a new essay, Bullion Vault's research director, Adrian Ash, tells three fascinating and little-known stories of how governments confiscated gold: fascist Italy in 1935; Nazi Germany in 1939 with the assistance of the Bank of England and the Bank for International Settlements, two organizations of barely greater integrity that are still around; and -- how can we not call it "fascist"? -- Britain in 1966. There's more preamble to this story contained in this GATA release from yesterday. It's a must read, of course...and the link is here. |
| Mike Kosares: Saving gold -- old reliable stands tall in crisis atmosphere Posted: 11 Dec 2012 03:27 AM PST  Mike Kosares, proprietor of Centennial Precious Metals in Denver and its Internet site, USAGold.com, has done a year-end review of inflation-adjusted rates of return on investments, and while 2012 has not been a spectacular year for gold, he reports that gold still is far outpacing interest-paying securities like bank certificates of deposit. This is another essay that I found posted in a GATA release from yesterday. Kosares' study is headlined "Saving Gold: Old Reliable Stands Tall in Crisis Atmosphere" and it's posted at USAGold.com Internet site here.
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| Alasdair Macleod: Markets, not Paul van Eeden, determine value Posted: 11 Dec 2012 03:27 AM PST  GoldMoney research director Alasdair Macleod can't resist replying today to the recent assertion of Cranberry Capital's Paul van Eeden that the true value of gold is about $900 per ounce, a little more than half the current price. (GATA called attention to van Eeden's calculation 10 days ago: http://www.gata.org/node/11976.) |
| Peter Grandich: What a Turnaround in Junior Gold Mining Stocks Will Look Like Posted: 11 Dec 2012 03:27 AM PST  The fundamentals at many junior mining companies have improved, yet their stock prices continue to languish. In this interview with The Gold Report, market guru Peter Grandich gives his thoughts on when this may end and where gold is headed in 2013, and names some of his picks in unlikely jurisdictions. This interview was posted on theaureport.com Internet site yesterday...and the link is here.
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| GoldMoney introduces gold and silver storage in Singapore Posted: 11 Dec 2012 01:15 AM PST GoldMoney introduces gold and silver storage in Singapore London, 11 December 2012 - Following the release of a new storage location in Toronto, Canada earlier this year, GoldMoney - the ...  |
| Gold Confiscation: Lessons from the 20th Century Posted: 10 Dec 2012 11:31 PM PST Today's chatter in the trading rooms says some gold owners fear a punitive US tax hike in New Year 2013, with the Obama government targeting precious-metal investors. In truth, such a US move looks very unlikely.  |
| Posted: 10 Dec 2012 10:25 PM PST The following is excerpted from a commentary originally posted at www.speculative-investor.com on 9th December 2012. According to a recent comment by a well-respected analyst, one of the problems with using gold as money is that the supply of gold could experience large swings due to changes in mine production. The ignorance reflected by this comment is simply breathtaking. The usual complaint about using gold as money is that the supply of gold doesn't increase fast enough to facilitate strong economic growth, as if producing more stuff requires more of the general medium of exchange. To know why the 'insufficient rate of supply growth' complaint is bogus you must have a basic understanding of good economic theory, which most people don't have. However, to know why the 'large swings in gold supply' complaint is bogus you only have to take a cursory glance at some charts. It seems that the analyst mentioned above didn't even bother to take a cursory glance at some charts before spreading what is, to put it politely, misinformation. The charts of relevance show what tends to happen to money supply under the current global monetary system, that is, under a system where the money supply is primarily determined by a central bank. But before we get to these charts, let's briefly consider the global supply of gold. Over the past 100 years the total aboveground supply of gold increased at 1.5%-2.0% per year, year in year out*. On the occasions when the growth rate moved out of this range, it was only ever by a small amount. There were periods of larger increases in gold production during the 1800s and early-1900s due to major high-grade gold discoveries and the invention of the cyanide leaching process, but the current trend is towards marginally lower global gold production. In any case, even if we make the unrealistic assumption that an amazing new technological advance will allow the global gold mining industry to double its annual output, the result would only be an increase in the gold inflation rate from around 1.5%/year to around 3%/year. So, the global gold supply will probably continue to increase at around 1.5%/year, but under an absurd scenario could possibly increase as rapidly as 3%/year. It will never decline, because for the same reason that gold can't be created out of thin air it can't disappear into thin air. How does this compare with our fiat money? Here are a bunch of charts that show how it compares, beginning with a chart prepared by Mike Pollaro that reveals the year-over-year (YOY) rates of growth in the supplies of the US$ (identified as TMS2 on the chart), the euro, the British Pound and the Yen. The chart shows that with the exception of the Yen, the annual rate of supply growth in the world's major currencies has, since 2000, oscillated between -3% to 2% at the low end and at least 18% at the high end. The Yen has been more stable in that its growth rate has oscillated between -1% and 5%. Turning to some other currencies, the following charts show that: 1) Since the beginning of 2000 the YOY rate of growth in the Australian True Money Supply (TMS) has gone from 15% down to 0% up to 26% down to 7% up to 26% down to -3% (a brief period of monetary deflation) and finally up to the 5%-10% range where it remains today. And the Reserve Bank of Australia is generally considered to be one of the most prudent central banks! 2) The YOY rate of growth in the Brazilian TMS has swung wildly between 0%-7% at the low end and 20%-30% at the high end. 3) The YOY rate of growth in China's M1 money supply spent the first seven years of the last decade oscillating between 10% and 20%. The swings then became even larger, with a decline to 6% in late-2008 and then a moonshot to almost 40% in early-2010 followed by a decline to 3% in early-2012. 4) The YOY rate of growth in South African TMS has been all over the place. The South African economy has been careening between monetary deflation and rapid monetary inflation. And some people have the nerve to claim that money-supply instability is a risk posed by a gold standard! Large changes in the money supply get in the way of economic progress and always end up occurring when central banks and/or governments have the power to determine the money supply. *As we've explained in many previous commentaries, this is why changes in mine production can safely be ignored when attempting to predict the future performance of the gold price. Regular financial market forecasts and  |
| Will the Government Confiscate Your Gold? Posted: 10 Dec 2012 10:23 PM PST What are the chances that the federal government will confiscate my gold? To give newcomers a unique (and informed) perspective on this question, we called industry colleague Rich Checkan at Asset Strategies International.  |
| The World Is Changing And Ignoring This Reality Is Not Healthy Posted: 10 Dec 2012 10:11 PM PST We are on the precipice of enormous financial and economic change. It is not change for the good, especially for the United States. Excesses and mis-allocated resources of several generations are about to be exposed as modern industrial nations sink deeper into the economic hole they have dug for themselves. The purging of these economic |
| Posted: 10 Dec 2012 10:00 PM PST Gold University |
| Posted: 10 Dec 2012 09:55 PM PST This is one of those rare days when there are so many interesting stories in the financial world that we can hardly decide which one to write about. But we'll exercise some editorial discretion and pick the ones that are most likely to make a difference to your share market returns in 2013. But just for good measure, we promise to eat a copy of the US Constitution if Australia passes a stupid law restricting free speech. More on that in one of today's other articles. Assuming the world does not destroy itself on December 21st (the whole Mayan calendar thing), then the biggest influence on Aussie share prices next year will probably be China's economy. Will its new leaders unleash massive stimulus? Or will China rebalance its growth model and set wallets free in a great leap towards consumer credit and consumption? The Chinese macro data over the weekend was all promising. Industrial output was up. So were retail sales. In fact both reached eight month highs. But yesterday we learned that imports in November - including imports of Australian commodities - were flat. Exports were up 2.9%. But compared to the 11.6% rise in October, the numbers aren't great. China's trade surplus fell 38% month over month, from $32 billion to $19.6 billion. That's an impressive decline. 'Looking ahead,' says HSBCs Ma Xiaoping, presumably with a straight face, 'China may have to rely more on investment to stimulate the economy if the US situation worsens.' As if China hasn't be relying on fixed asset investment to drive GDP growth! But it's not just the 'US situation' China (and Australia) have to worry about. It's the whole damn planet. Growth in all the mature industrial economies isn't just slowing. It's going in reverse. Reverse growth is otherwise known as contraction, or more conventionally, recession. Japan's economy has entered its fifth recession in 15 years, according to data released by the government yesterday. 'Gross domestic product shrank an annualized 3.5 per cent in the three months through September, the Cabinet Office's second estimate showed in Tokyo today, matching a preliminary reading. The government revised the previous quarter to a 0.1 per cent contraction, matching the textbook definition of a recession,' reports the Financial Times. Did Ben Bernanke get this memo? Bernanke is following the Japanese playbook when it comes to avoiding depression. Maybe the idea is to remain permanently in recession, but avoiding a full blown deflationary depression. There will be more clarity on his confused mental state when the Federal Reserve meets tomorrow to discuss how to extend Operation Twist into next year. On that note, the Fed is on the verge of some serious money printing, which ought to be good for precious and platinum group metals, by our reckoning. Recall that in Operation Twist, the Fed sold around US$45 billion a month in short-term securities and used the proceeds to purchase long-term government bonds. The idea was to push down long-term interest rates by restructuring the Fed's bond portfolio. No new money was needed. But the Fed is all out of short-term bonds to sell. If it wants to continue to, in Kevin Rudd's old tortured phrase, 'put maximum downward pressure on interest rates,' it will have to find the money somewhere else. Luckily, the Fed is in possession of a technology called a printing press, or the digital equivalent thereof. It can 'find' money any time it likes by flicking the 'on' switch. Keep in mind that the Fed is already buying about $40 billion a month in bonds issued by the failing housing agencies, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. When you add that $40 billion to another $45 billion in long-term asset purchases, you get $85 billion in monthly money/printing balance sheet expansion. Unless the money-centre banks in New York and London are actively colluding to suppress the gold price, you'd expect it to go higher as the supply of US dollars grows faster than the supply of gold. And of course by pursuing the deliberate devaluation of the US dollar, the Fed forces everyone else to devalue too. They will do it in Japan. They will do it in Europe. They will do it everywhere, with the exception of Australia. By the way, none of this knee-capping of the dollar is designed to improve US export competitiveness. That is what the US government unofficially says. But don't be fooled. The US dollar is weak because US rates have to be kept low to prevent an even larger housing collapse. And now, with annual deficits over $1 trillion, the US government simply can't afford higher borrowing costs. None of this has anything to do with boosting US competitiveness. It's all about the debt. All these inflationary monetary policies are designed to compensate for a distinct lack of real growth - a common situation when a debt bubble bursts. But if China is making and selling fewer things because America, Europe, and Japan are all effectively in recession (or headed there soon enough), that cannot be good news for companies like BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto. And if it's bad news for them, it's bad news for the Australian share market, right? That's the bearish case for 2013 in a nutshell. But let's not forget about the banks. Since the RBA remains neutral in the currency wars, the Aussie dollar has become a magnet for global capital. Some of that capital must be finding its way into the bank stocks. And the banks stocks make up an even larger percentage of the ASX/200 than the miners. What deflationary depression and recession takes away from the miners, RBA neutrality in the currency wars gives to the banks. Does it equal out? We'll consult our market technician and get back to you tomorrow. Regards, Dan Denning From the Archives... Will Lower Interest Rates Impact Australia in 2013? Is the Australian Economy in Recession? US Debt: Why America May Need a Bail Out by the IMF If Profits are Falling Why are Stocks Rising? The Frontier Way
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| Posted: 10 Dec 2012 09:53 PM PST The US is the place to be. That's what everybody says. America has all the advantages: the strong US economy, a younger population, cheaper energy, and a central bank more ready to print money as necessary. Look for US manufacturing to get a boost, especially in industries such as chemicals, from new energy discoveries. Households should benefit from lower energy prices too. And the dollar should go up as foreigners move their money to America in search of safety and higher returns. Here's Business Insider:
What? Fighting inflation? What central bank is worried about fighting inflation? They've got ZIRP and QE... they seem to be trying to cause inflation, not fight it. These guys aren't firefighters, trying to put out the flames of inflation. No, they're pyromaniacs. As Tony Boechk puts it:
Meanwhile, here's Philip Stephens, writing in the Financial Times:
It's time to buy America. How about that, dear reader? Is it time to buy America? Maybe not. The real effect of cheaper energy, in the US, will be to allow policymakers to make a bigger mess of things. They'll shift more of America's real wealth to the zombies. They'll go deeper into debt. They'll print more money. The US got lucky. Its energy entrepreneurs found ways to squeeze oil and gas out of stone. Pretty nice trick. But sometimes good luck is the worst kind of luck. Atlanta would have been better off if the South had lost the war before Sherman approached... ...George A Custer would have been better off if he'd gotten fired before taking his troops to the Little Big Horn... and the whole world would have been better off if Gavrilo Princip had not had the good luck to have a revolver in his hand when he accidentally ran into the Archduke Ferdinand. Putting that aside, one thing we notice immediately: Mr Stephens seems to have no idea how markets work. Reading his description of America's pluses, it looks like a time to sell the country, not buy it. He says the US economy is leading in several important ways. But so what? What America is today must already be reflected in the prices of her stocks, bonds and real estate. Today determines current prices; future prices are tomorrow's business. If the US economy could surprise on the upside, it might be a good time to buy. If the surprise is more likely to come on the downside, it is better to sell. It is like betting at a race track. The previous winner may hold his head high and prance around. He may be the favourite to win again. He may be at the very peak of his career. But that is not usually a good time to bet on him. Investors tend to over-value the recent past and forget the distant past. They like betting on yesterday's winners. They run the odds up on the favourite until the payout for winning is small and the risk of loss is huge. That is why the ten-year note yields so little - less than 1.6% last week. And that is why US stocks are so expensive - well above average on a P/E basis. Stocks and bonds have been in bull markets for the last 30 years. A whole generation of investors has grown up with no experience of anything else. As far as they know, stocks only go up. And on the rare occasions when they go down, the feds come in to push them back up again. As for bonds, they're a one-way bet too. Ben Bernanke has pledged to keep bond prices high for years into the future. If prices begin to fall (pushing up bond yields) he'll come into the market to shore them up. Of course, it's been many years since we thought we could predict the future. A full head of hair and soothsaying both went away at about the same time. What we try to do now is to wait for things to get so far out of whack that even a Fed governor has to work hard not to notice. Then, we bet that they will get back into whack. When? How? We don't know. But right now, we see US debt at levels that look out of whack to us. The feds are running real, unfunded deficits equal to 21 times GDP increases. Where this will lead, we don't know. But probably not to higher prices for US stocks and bonds. Regards, Bill Bonner From the Archives... Will Lower Interest Rates Impact Australia in 2013? Is the Australian Economy in Recession? US Debt: Why America May Need a Bail Out by the IMF If Profits are Falling Why are Stocks Rising? The Frontier Way
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| Eric Sprott today on RT with LL Posted: 10 Dec 2012 07:15 PM PST |
| Posted: 10 Dec 2012 05:54 PM PST Gold "Respecting Uptrend", Berlusconi Speaks of "Desperation" at Returning to Public Life after Monti Announces Resignation Plan SPOT MARKET gold bullion prices rose to one-week highs above $1710 an ounce Monday morning, while European stock markets fell following news that Italy's prime minister plans to resign. "Gold continues to consolidate its gains from August-September, and is still respecting its long term uptrend," says the latest technical analysis from bullion dealing Scotiabank. Italy's FTSE MIB index was down more than 3% on the day by Monday lunchtime, after technocrat Italian prime minister Mario Monti announced over the weekend his intention to resign once Italy's next budget is passed by parliament. Monti's announcement comes after members of former prime minister Silvio Berlusconi's People of Liberty party last Thursday declined to support a package of economic measures proposed by Monti's government. Berlusconi wrote on his Facebook page Saturday that he intends to contest next year's elections. "Such leader, a replica of what Berlusconi was in '94, has not been found. It is not a matter of not having searched: we have indeed searched for one, but he does not exist…it is with desperation that I am returning to take interest in public affairs, and once again I am doing so out of a sense of responsibility." Over in Athens meantime, the Greek government has extended until noon tomorrow London time the deadline for bondholders to participate in its bond buyback, through which Greece hopes to buy back debt with a face value of around €30 billion, spending €10 billion since the bonds are trading below par. "Investors should bear in mind that even if Greece accepts all bonds tendered in the Invitation, it will continue to engage with its official sector creditors in considering further steps to put its debt on a sustainable path," says a statement from the Greek finance ministry. "Future measures may not involve an opportunity to exit investments in Designated Securities at the levels offered for this buy back." Greece was close to reaching its target for the buyback by Sunday, according to an unnamed finance ministry official quoted by news agency Bloomberg. "They call this debt sustainability, but it's only [sustainable] on paper," says Commerzbank chief economist Joerg Kraemer. "The buyback was a success because investors do not believe in the debt sustainability." Silver meantime hovered above $33.30 an ounce for most of Tuesday morning, up slightly on last week's close, while other industrial commodities ticked higher and US Treasury bonds also gained. Over in New York, the difference between bullish and bearish contracts held by gold futures and options traders on the Comex – known as the speculative net long position – fell 18.5% in the week ended last Tuesday, according to the weekly Commitments of Traders report published Friday by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. "The cracks in investor confidence that we saw in the preceding week widened considerably," says Marc Ground, commodities strategist at Standard Bank. "[However] despite the liquidations, we still feel that the prospect of continued monetary accommodation should provide support for gold over the medium term. Coupled with fairly robust physical buying, we maintain that dips below the $1700 level represent a good buying opportunity." Holdings of gold bullion backing the SPDR Gold Shares (GLD), the world's biggest gold ETF, rose to a new high of 1353.3 tonnes on Friday. The Federal Open Market Committee meets tomorrow and Wednesday to discuss Federal Reserve policy. "The FOMC faces a tricky task in managing the end of Operation Twist," says a note from ING, referring to the Fed's maturity extension program, due to end this month, through which the central bank sells shorter-dated Treasury bonds and buys longer-dated ones with the aim of lowering longer-term interest rates. "[The Fed] will be at pains to replace it with something that markets do not interpret as hawkish." "Market expectation is that there could be more quantitative easing towards the end of the month, and this will be supportive of gold," says Lynette Tan, analyst at Philip Futures in Singapore, though she added that uncertainty over the so-called fiscal cliff is likely to keep gold range bound between $1680 and $1750 an ounce. More recycled gold bullion will flow to Singapore from next year as a result of a new refinery being built there by Swiss refiner Metalor, according to Metalor's Robert Gilles, quoted by Singapore's Business Times Monday. "What is happening now is you have the scrap going out of the region and coming back in the form of good delivery bars," says Gilles. Because it's expensive to transport high value materials, it makes sense to have a refinery taking up the scrap, creating fine gold and then transforming this fine gold into bars." South Africa's Rand Refinery announced last month that it is building an assaying and sampling facility in Singapore. Ben Traynor Gold value calculator | Buy gold online at live prices Editor of Gold News, the analysis and investment research site from world-leading gold ownership service BullionVault, Ben Traynor was formerly editor of the Fleet Street Letter, the UK's longest-running investment letter. A Cambridge economics graduate, he is a professional writer and editor with a specialist interest in monetary economics. Ben writes and presents BullionVault's weekly gold market summary on YouTube and can be found on Google+ (c) BullionVault 2012 Please Note: This article is to inform your thinking, not lead it. Only you can decide the best place for your money, and any decision you make will put your money at risk. Information or data included here may have already been overtaken by events – and must be verified elsewhere – should you choose to act on it.  |
| S7: Silver, Are the Elite the whole problem? Posted: 10 Dec 2012 05:11 PM PST Silver is protection from the "banksters" & the "elite" but average common people themselves are lacking when it comes to treating each other well and getting along with each other. from syyenergy7: ~TVR |
| Silver: The Investment of This Decade Posted: 10 Dec 2012 05:04 PM PST Today news headlines proclaimed "Gold rises" due to Italian Prime Minister Mario Monti's plans to resign, while CNBC cited expectations of future Federal Reserve easing. from capitalaccount: Regardless of the reason, Gold was barely up, trading just a little above 1,710 dollars an ounce, the lower end of its 30 day trading range. In the summer of 2011, during the US debt ceiling debate and credit downgrade, gold topped 1900 dollars an ounce. However, since then the price has dropped, despite the types of news events that usually drive investors to gold. Plus, according to the World Gold Council, central banks will buy more than 500 tons of gold this year, up from 465 tons in 2011, a new high. Why has the yellow metal been trading sideways for the past year and a half as the S&P 500 has gained a very respectable 25 percent? We talk to commodities legend Eric Sprott about gold and silver, and where he sees prices headed over the next decade. And despite the recent stagnation in the price of gold, the metal has been in a bull market for more than a decade. But how much of the run-up in gold is driven by factors we talk about every day (such as QE and debt downgrades), and how much is driven by issues such as the 20-year bear market in gold that preceded the recent run, as structural supply changes forced the inevitable price adjustment that we see today? We talk to Eric Sprott, CEO of Sprott Asset Management, about how he has weighed these factors over the years. Plus, US and UK regulators have published a joint paper about plans to deal with failing global banks. Martin Gruenberg, chairman of the FDIC, and Paul Tucker, deputy governor of the Bank of England, wrote an article in the op-ed pages of the Financial Times stating that the plans are the first steps to ending the global problem of "too big to fail." The paper outlines a strategy which includes losses for shareholders, removing senior management, and converting debt into equity in order to provide capital. Capital is one solution to mitigate the liability of massive credit expansion…if only we had hard money…Lauren breaks it down in Word of the Day. And, have you ever wondered what 315 billion dollars in gold bullion looks like? Chemistry professor Martyn Poliakoff visited the gold vault at the Bank of England to find out. Lauren and Demetri discuss the insides of the gold vault in today's "Loose Change." ~TVR |
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