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Wednesday, December 26, 2012

Gold World News Flash

Gold World News Flash


Lapdog FDA Approves GM Salmon for Human Consumption

Posted: 25 Dec 2012 10:00 PM PST

by Aaron Dykes, InfoWars:

True to form, the subservient and bought out Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has now approved a larger and faster growing genetically modified salmon for human consumption, paving the way for its acceptance on the marketplace and quickly making its way to the dinner table.

Only consumer opposition stands in the way.

Consumer pressure indeed prevented the so-called "enviropig" from coming to market earlier in 2012, after Canadian industries feared a backlash that would collapse their pork market, as well as other interrelated markets, including those not involved in GMO products.

Read More @ InfoWars

Is a Global Gold Supply Crunch Forming?

Posted: 25 Dec 2012 10:00 PM PST

Casey Research

Jim Rogers – Focus On Sugar

Posted: 25 Dec 2012 09:23 PM PST

Check our website daily at http://www.figanews.com When Jim Rogers talk sweet on gold and silver,...

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Marc Faber RECENT Interview – 2013 Gold Price Prediction – YouTube

Posted: 25 Dec 2012 08:58 PM PST

Check our website daily at http://www.figanews.com Marc Faber in a recent interview discussing his...

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READ THIS if you are under 30 years old

Posted: 25 Dec 2012 07:14 PM PST

I'm a tad bit over 30 …. and I just might take this advice.

============================================

If you're reading this and under 30, let me be absolutely clear about oneindubitable point: your government is going to sacrifice your future in order to pay for its own mistakes from the past. [If that kind of future does not sit well with you] then get out of Dodge. Stop playing by the same rules of the game that used to work in the past because the old playbook of "go to school, get a good job, work your way up the ladder" simply doesn't apply anymore. [This article outlines what is being laid out as your future unless you take independent action and, in conclusion, outlines suggestions on how to make a better life for yourself. Feel free to share this article with one and all - and the video at the end of the article.] Words: 1058

So writes Simon Black (www.sovereignman.com) in edited excerpts from his original article* entitled Young people: get ready to grab your ankles.

Lorimer Wilson, editor of www.FinancialArticleSummariesToday.com (A site for sore eyes and inquisitive minds) and www.munKNEE.com (Your Key to Making Money!), may have further edited ([ ]), abridged (…) and/or reformatted (some sub-titles and bold/italics emphases) the article below for the sake of clarity and brevity to ensure a fast and easy read. The author's views and conclusions are unaltered and no personal comments have been included to maintain the integrity of the original article. Please note that this paragraph must be included in any article re-posting to avoid copyright infringement. 

Black goes on to write, in part:

Refuse to be enslaved by the idea that it's your civic and moral responsibility to pay off the debts of your government's failures. Cast off the yoke of their control… and summon the courage to live a life by your own design. The path to prosperity in the Age of Turmoil depends on this ability to reject the old system, declare your economic independence, and carve your own path.

Under 30s – You Will Experience Brunt of  Financial Ramifications

To give you an example, students in London came out to the streets in droves last Friday to protest the British parliament's most recent austerity measures which tripled the cap on their university tuition to $15,000.

Sure, Britain is imposing all sorts of austerity measures on its citizens… and while I won't get into a discussion about the absurdity of government controlled education, I will point out that students are having their benefits cut far more drastically than any other segment of the population.

Are pensioners seeing their costs triple? No. Are middle-aged workers seeing 50% tax hikes? No. Aside from the very small segment of high-income earners who will be forever robbed and pillaged of their wealth, the younger generation is next in line to receive the butt end of the crisis fallout.

Younger folks have comparatively lower incomes, benefits, job opportunities, and political clout than their seniors, yet they are increasingly expected to assume a disproportionately larger burden of the consequences of government folly.

It's the younger generation that is called on to go fight and die in pointless wars in faraway lands; it's the younger generation that is forced to assume the debts of their forefathers; and it's the younger generation that gets relegated to the back rows of the political amphitheater and dismissed by the establishment.

Meanwhile, retirees aren't seeing massive benefits cuts, and middle-aged wage earners income earners are being protected from above by politicians.

Under 30s – This is What Life Has In Store For You

Let's take a minute and look at the looming fate of the average young person today:

1) Your government-run university tuition is going to go through the roof, saddling you with unfathomable debt before you even enter the world as an adult;

2) Once you graduate, you'll be the last in the hiring queue;

3) If you do get hired, you'll be the lowest on the totem pole and the first to be let go when tough times befall your business;

4) Once the labor market eventually stabilizes, you'll enter your prime earning years with some of the highest tax rates ever seen as your government continues to cannibalize your generation to pay off its largess and indebted entitlement programs that benefited older generations;

5) For your entire working life, you'll pay into a pension system that is going to be bankrupt by the time you're qualified to draw on it;

6) More than likely, you'll never achieve the standard of living that your parents achieved;

7) Whatever wealth your parents accumulated won't be left to you– the bulk of it will be confiscated by the state (unless your folks were smart enough to plant multiple flags) due to a host of death taxes.

If you're in the millennial Facebook generation, this is going to be the standard storyline of your peers. The system that's in place right now– the failed cycle of debt and consumption fed by continuous government intervention– has stuck you with the bill.

Under 30s – Here's How to Make the Most of  YOUR Life

Fortunately, there's a silver lining (as always). Younger people are generally less anchored and more mobile than their elders, hence it's much easier to opt out of this perverse system.

If you're angry that your government is saddling you with the responsibility to pay off generations of bad decisions, then:

  1. Get out of Dodge. Stop playing by the same rules of the game that used to work in the past– the old playbook of "go to school, get a good job, work your way up the ladder" simply doesn't apply anymore.
  2. Don't stick around a society that has completely forsaken you and is waiting with knife and fork in hand to carve up your earnings once you finally enter the labor market… get out of Dodge now, while it's easy to do and you have little to risk.
  3. Go explore the world and get an education based on experience, not expensive academic theory. Seek opportunities in thriving, frontier markets overseas… places like Kurdistan, Mongolia, Botswana, Kazakhstan. Soak up the local intelligence and become the grease guy on the ground who can make things happen.
  4. Find people whose lifestyles you want to emulate and make yourself indispensable to them as an apprentice… this will be the only time in your life that you can afford to work for nothing in exchange for a valuable, first-hand education.
  5. Most of all, stop playing by everyone else's rules. Refuse to be enslaved by the idea that it's your civic and moral responsibility to pay off the debts of your government's failures. Cast off the yoke of their control… and summon the courage to live a life by your own design.

In conclusion, refuse to be enslaved by the idea that it's your civic and moral responsibility to pay off the debts of your government's failures. Cast off the yoke of their control… and summon the courage to live a life by your own design. The path to prosperity in the Age of Turmoil depends on your ability to reject the old system, declare your economic independence, and carve your own path.

Say Goodbye To The Good Life

Posted: 25 Dec 2012 07:00 PM PST

from The Economic Collapse Blog:

Will this be the last normal holiday season that Americans ever experience? To many Americans, such a notion would be absolutely inconceivable. After all, in the affluent areas of the country restaurants and malls are absolutely packed. Beautiful holiday decorations are seemingly everywhere this time of the year and children all over the United States are breathlessly awaiting the arrival of Santa Claus. Even though poverty is exploding to unprecedented levels, most families will still have mountains of presents under their Christmas trees. Of course a whole lot of those presents were purchased with credit cards, but people don't like to talk about that. It kind of spoils the illusion. Sadly, the truth is that our entire economy is a giant illusion. The extreme prosperity that we have been enjoying has been fueled by debt, and any future prosperity that we will experience is completely dependent on our ability to go into even more debt. The total amount of debt in our economy is almost 10 times larger than it was just 30 years ago, but we don't like to think about that too much. Most Americans are way too busy living the good life to be bothered with "doom and gloom". Well, get ready to say goodbye to normal. As history has shown us, no financial bubble lasts forever, and time is rapidly running out for us.

Read More @ TheEconomicCollpaseBlog.com

Gold Price Forecast 2013 - Video

Posted: 25 Dec 2012 06:36 PM PST

Will 2013 be any better than 2012 was for Gold bugs? Here is a video summary of my analysis including a detailed trend forecast for Gold for 2013.

Silver Bullet Silver Shield Trivium Medallion Review – YouTube

Posted: 25 Dec 2012 03:46 PM PST

Check our website daily at http://www.figanews.com “The most potent weapon of the oppressor...

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Dear Fellow Gold Bug

Posted: 25 Dec 2012 10:56 AM PST

You and I probably read many of the same newsletters and websites. In the context of the general public but also the financial community, I believe you could be considered a gold expert. I salute your foresight in seeing the financial crisis ... Read More...

Canada $20 Christmas Reindeer .9999 Silver Bullion Coin – Limited Production – YouTube

Posted: 25 Dec 2012 10:17 AM PST

Check our website daily at http://www.figanews.com Canada $20 Christmas Reindeer .9999 Silver...

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Eric Sprott Debunks StormCloudsGathering Silver Manipulation Debunked – YouTube

Posted: 25 Dec 2012 10:14 AM PST

Check our website daily at http://www.figanews.com People in Zimbabwe used gold to buy bread…...

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Andy Hoffman – What’s Going on With Gold – YouTube

Posted: 25 Dec 2012 10:11 AM PST

Check our website daily at http://www.figanews.com (1) Andy discusses the continuing gold raid. (2)...

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Iran Launches Week-Long Straits Of Hormuz Naval Drill On Friday, Next To US Aircraft Carrier

Posted: 25 Dec 2012 07:48 AM PST

With the market still hopeful of some deus ex resolution to the Fiscal Cliff will take place in the last few trading sessions of the year (one where the market itself will not have to be the catalyst for such a resolution, because once the selling starts in earnest, who knows if and when it stops, hence the loading up on prodigious amounts of puts), here is Iran out of left field, adding yet another known unknown to the inequality, announcing that it will begin six days of naval drills in the Straits of Hormuz on Friday. In other words a one year flashback deja vu, as Iran held a similar 10-day drill last December, when everyone was expecting an imminent escalation out of the endless Israel-Iran foreplay and was analyzing which were the new moon days allowing Israel unobstructed access to the greatest distraction of all - Iran's nuclear facility being moved under a mountain: a catalyst which Israel repeatedly said is the only reason to attack a weaponizing, nuclear Iran, and which took place some time in 2012. Now that the official window of opportunity is closed, will Israel tone back on the aggressive rhetoric? Hardly: after all that is precisely why the Syrian "outlet valve" has been put in play over the past 6 months.

From Reuters:

Iran will begin six days of naval drills in the Strait of Hormuz at the end of this week, an Iranian naval commander said on Tuesday, an exercise meant to showcase its military capabilities in what is a vital oil and gas shipping route.

 

The "Velayat 91" drills will be held from Friday to Wednesday across an area of about 1 million square kilometres in the Strait of Hormuz, the Gulf of Oman and northern parts of the Indian Ocean, said Habibollah Sayyari, according to Iranian media.

 

Iranian officials have often said that Iran could block the strait - through which 40 percent of the world's sea-borne oil exports pass - if it came under military attack over its disputed nuclear programme.

 

Sayyari was quoted as saying the new drill would test the navy's missile systems, combat ships, submarines and patrol and reconnaissance methods.

 

"In this exercise we will use the navy's newest weapons and tactics," Sayyari said. "Certainly we will observe the marine borders of neighbouring states and will carry out our exercises according to international laws and regulations."

 

A heavy Western naval presence in the Gulf is meant to deter any attempt to block the waterway.

And making sure there is no chance of escalation, the aircraft carrier Stennis, CVN-74, as shown in the US naval update map courtesy of Stratfor will be right there, quietly watching every move of the Iranian navy, often times smack in the middle of the drills.

And just to get the blood really going, Iran media has reported that there has been another Stuxnet-based attempt to cripple Iranian infrastructure. As a reminder, Stuxnet is the computer "virus" which crippled the Iranian nuclear power plant and set back the project by months. Via AP:

An Iranian semi-official news agency says there has been another cyberattack by the sophisticated computer worm Stuxnet, this time on the industries in the country's south.

 

Tuesday's report by ISNA quotes provincial civil defense chief Ali Akbar Akhavan as saying the virus targeted a power plant and some other industries in Hormozgan province in recent months. Akhavan says Iranian computer experts were able to "successfully stop" the worm.

 

Iran has repeatedly claimed defusing cyber worms and malware, including Stuxnet and Flame viruses that targeted the vital oil sector, which provides 80 percent of the country's foreign revenue.

 

Tehran has said both worms are part of a secret U.S.-Israeli program that seeks to destabilize Iran's nuclear program. The West suspects Iran is pursuing a nuclear weapons program, a charge Tehran denies.

Has the time come for perfectly inexplicable bid-hitting attacks (thanks BIS) to start targeting the Brent complex just as geopolitical tensions threaten to push it far higher once more?  The good news is that at least silver may be allowed to crawl out above $30 now that central banks are certain to not pump about $2 trillion in 2013. Oh wait...

The Passion of Monti: A Christmas Story

Posted: 25 Dec 2012 05:59 AM PST

The political dysfunction of the world's largest economy is epic.  Even though Mr. Market is not forcing the US hand, the political class is intent on shooting itself in the foot.  Yet the uncertainty over next year's marginal tax rates has not impacted the hiring process as the average monthly non-farm payroll growth has not diminished.  Nor have investment plans been adversely impacted.  Non-defense durable goods orders, excluding aircraft, a useful proxy for capital investment, rose 2.7% in November after posting a 3.2% increase in October.   

 

Italy is not as fortunate.  Its economy is contracting.  Mr Market is likely to be less patient.  Although Italy's net debt issuance in 2013 appears less than in 2012, there is little room for error.  

 

Monti was looked upon as the savior of Italy after Berlusconi had undermined its gravitas on the world stage with his antics that are unbecoming of a man of his stature.   Yet Monti took his role too seriously and not seriously enough.  

 

The Bible says it took Jesus 40 days in the desert to decide between an earthly kingdom and the heavenly one.  It took Monti about 48 hours from the time he submitted his resignation until his press conference where he offered his support to those who pick up his Cross reform agenda.  At precisely the moment in time, when the Italian people need the earthly bread, Monti demands sacrifice in exchange for his blessing and a vague promise of a better life thereafter.    

 

Monti is too much the Other.  He puts himself above Italy and the Italian people.  Politics, which the ancient Greeks taught the ancient Romans, is the sphere of freedom and through it people shaped the community in which they lived.  Monti is too pure for Italian politics and the compromises that it requires.  

 

By insisting that his virtue remains beyond reproach, Monti is willing to see Italy return to the hands of those that would defile it.   Monti's reform agenda never had deep democratic roots.  His ascent to the premier's office was not a function of an election, but a deal worked out among the major political parties after Berlusconi resigned amid scandal and crisis.   His agenda was implemented largely by decree.  He often demanded votes of confidence on measures that forced agreement from a reluctant parliament.  Monti's public support began slipping shortly after his ascension. 

 

Over a hundred years ago, William Jennings Bryan harangued against crucifying America on a cross of gold.  Now Monti is willing to crucify himself to preserve his sanctity.  Yet his holiness has little value ,if it condemns his country to greater trials and tribulations, except for his own salvation.  

 

Monti did not seek allies and get "buy-ins" for his agenda.  This places at risk his accomplishments over the past year.  While center-left and center-right parties may endorse some parts of Monti's program, it seems like political suicide for any party to endorse it lock, stock and barrel. 

 

His reforms are not a sacred text.  Berlusconi, as vile of a character as he may be, is politically astute in ways that Monti cannot even fathom.  He chose the timing of Monti's downfall, catching the premier seemingly unprepared.    It is Monti that says he will not serve.  Berlusconi is all too happy to be prime minister again.  He would dismantle much of what Monti built and he would do it in the people's name. 

 

It is Monti, for example, that re-introduced a tax on the Church's commercial properties, which Berlusconi had previously eliminated.  In addition, Berlusconi has already indicated he would repeal the new real estate tax, which is understandably terribly unpopular, and boost the sin tax on alcohol and tobacco.  

 

Monti enjoys and values a camaraderie with the European political elite that Berlusconi mocks.  Monti sought to soften the German demands for austerity, and the letter of the treaties, by invoking the spirit.  Yet he has little concrete to show for it.  The biggest reason that the monetary union survived 2012 was due to the actions of his countryman, ECB President Draghi, who incidentally was accused by Bundesbank President Weidmann of also circumventing democratic principles.  

 

Berlusconi would challenge Merkel in a way that Monti would never dare.  Following the political commandment that "an enemy of my enemy is my friend",  Berlusconi may reinvigorate the Mediterranean axis and join forces with France and Spain to counter Germany.  

 

The polls suggest the PD, under Bersani, is still poised to secure the most votes in Italy's election in late February.  It says much about the condition of Italian politics (and perhaps by extension European politics) that the former communist was among Monti's most ardent supporters over the past year.   Endorsing Monti would not likely increase Bersani's public support, and could cost him.   Monti must indeed be suffering from delusions of grandeur if he thinks Bersani will move aside for Him.  

 

Without seeking to maintain a strong and powerful presence in Italy's politics, Monti has no way of ensuring that his program develops the kind of democratic roots necessary to endure.   His acknowledgment that sometimes Berlusconi is incomprehensible says just as much about Monti as it does Berlusconi.  

 

Monti may be good for Italy, but the Italian people are worse off now than a year ago.  Interest rates are lower and the equity market higher, but unemployment is higher and the economy continues to contract.  The basket of goods citizens get from the state has been reduced and the price of the basket has increased.   If the Italian people are to be saved, they need to understand how Monti's reform agenda will mean a better life for them and their children.  Yet for all Monti's effort, he might as well be speaking Latin.  

 

If Monti had tougher skin, like Berlusconi, he would not have been put off by the poll that found some 61% of Italians do not want him to run for premier.  Given the fractious nature of Italian politics, the 39% that do, would make Monti a power to be reckoned with and that is without even trying to present his case to the Italian people.   It is more support than the Man and Party of 12 had a couple of millennium ago.  

2013: A Bull Market Pause?

Posted: 24 Dec 2012 08:36 AM PST

Positive gold fundamentals already factored into gold price...

read more

Light at the End of the Tunnel for Gold

Posted: 24 Dec 2012 08:36 AM PST

Intuition was telling me something was going on these past few days in the gold market. Our investment team was watching gold and gold stocks take a tumble for no obvious reason. It wasn't only us who felt this way: many analysts were caught off-guard. One comment from Barclays Research indicated that the week was unusually "brutal … with quite a few confused participants with some seemingly positive aspects of the market not having an impact."

Will Hyperinflation Happen in America? Here Are Economic & Political Worst Case Scenarios

Posted: 24 Dec 2012 08:30 AM PST

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I have been reading a lot lately about the coming hyperinflation in America… [and while] I respect many of the writers [who express that opinion] I think they are jumping the gun. At this point none of the economic or political factors required to set off hyperinflation are present – and a careful analysis of theory, fact, and history leads me to conclude that inflation/stagflation is our future. It is quite a leap of fancy to say we are certain to have hyperinflation. Words: 2780

So says The Daily Capitalist (www.thedailycapitalist.com) in edited excerpts from the original article* entitled Will We Have Hyperinflation in America?.

This article is presented compliments of www.FinancialArticleSummariesToday.com (A site for sore eyes and inquisitive minds) and www.munKNEE.com (Your Key to Making Money!) and may have been edited ([ ]), abridged (…) and/or reformatted (some sub-titles and bold/italics emphases) for the sake of clarity and brevity to ensure a fast and easy read. The author's views and conclusions are unaltered and no personal comments have been included to maintain the integrity of the original article. Please note that this paragraph must be included in any article re-posting to avoid copyright infringement.

The Daily Capitalist goes on to say, in part:

The Case for Hyperinflation

All the [financial] writers base their hyperinflation argument on America's:

  • out of control federal deficits
  • spiraling debt,
  • poor economy,
  • reluctance to raise taxes,
  • loss of control over the money supply.

[Many say] that:

  • At some future tipping point the government and the Fed have only one alternative to prevent a run on US Treasurys, and that is…[even more] quantitative easing (QE)….
  • The tipping point is when investors lose faith in Treasurys because they fear sovereign default and they start dumping them, and then bond prices collapse.
  • The collapse will bring about worldwide financial panic, a run on other sovereign debt, and the dollar will decline drastically.
  • The Fed will have no choice other than to prop up the market by buying Treasurys and to do that they will have to print money (monetize the debt), probably massively, which will spiral into hyperinflation.
  • Some commentators [also] bring in arguments about trade balances, balance of payments, lack of exports, low U.S. savings, and other mercantilist ideas to justify their case for hyperinflation.

Hyperinflation is not a far-out speculation,[however]. Whenever countries experience hyperinflation the causes are usually the same and hew close to the above circumstances. In any fiat money economy hyperinflation is possible. Only a gold monetary standard has held back profligate regimes from printing money in hyperinflationary quantities.

The Case For Inflation – Not Hyperinflation – Happening

[In my opinion, however,] hyperinflation is something that is easy to say [and] makes headlines but is more difficult to achieve. The question is not, is it possible, but, [rather,] is it probable in America today. I think the circumstances make the probability low.

I am not in disagreement with the hyperinflationists' basic analysis of the Fed, the government, or the economy. All the bad things they describe are real… Below are the basic problems we face:

  1. We are still in a recession and we will probably stay in recession for "the foreseeable future" as the Fed likes to say.
  2. Government revenues have fallen off.
  3. Massive government spending has resulted in massive deficits.
  4. The deficits are being funded by debt.
  5. Credit is still very tight and money supply has been shrinking.
  6. The CPI is low, but asset values such as real estate are still declining.
  7. Unemployment is high and will probably go higher [at some future point].
  8. Massive Keynesian fiscal stimulus (federal spending) has had no lasting effect.
  9. Government social benefit programs (Social Security, Medicare, Obamacare, federal pensions, etc.) are underfunded and their costs will climb dramatically.
  10. Federal taxes now take about 30% of our economy.
  11. Federal debt is at about 90% of GDP and is rising.
  12. It is likely the Fed will engage in large amounts of QE to stimulate the economy, especially if unemployment grows.

The above is not a healthy outlook for America.

a) Inflation

There are two other factors that we need to consider.

  1. Governments like inflation, at least at moderate levels. Unbelievably, but true, people initially believe in the illusion of prosperity that rising prices from inflation brings. For most debtors the more the dollar is debased the easier it is to pay back debts issued in pre-inflation times. In fact, inflation is just another tax on your wealth; governments are paying for stuff at a hidden discount. Savers and creditors lose.
  2. Americans don't like to be taxed. While they like their benefits, they don't want to pay for them. The sea change in America is not the dislike of taxes, but the love of the Nanny State. While people cynically say that Social Security won't be around for them, they haven't saved enough for retirement or medical care, and they are counting on it. This presents a dilemma for our leaders. If they raise taxes sufficient to cover their expenses, we would kick them out of office (more on this below). On the other hand since our politicians can't seem to cut spending, they will continue to borrow. The answer to their dilemma is inflation.

Inflation is always a monetary phenomenon. Inflation is when central banks print more money than people desire to hold. The result of inflation is that all prices go up. If tomorrow everyone in the economy had 2x the dollars than they have today, prices would double. No one is wealthier; they just have more pieces of green paper. That is inflation.

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Inflation is not caused by a lack of goods or too much demand, or demand-pull. For example, if the price of oil goes up, that's not inflation. In that case, if we buy the same amount of gasoline as before, it means we will have less money to spend on other goods [and those] goods will decline in price because of lower demand.

Governments print consistently and constantly so that their currency is continually debased. [For example,] it would take you $22 to buy what $1 could buy in 1913 (the year the Fed was established).

Money is an economic good and it, too, is subject to supply and demand factors. Generally, if people see all prices continually rise because of an increase in money supply, they will choose to get rid of dollars and hold assets. If prices are continually falling, people desire to hold money because it is becoming more valuable relative to assets.

When inflation is an ongoing phenomenon, prices continually rise, money buys less (is debased), and people don't want to hold on to their devaluing dollars so they spend them. They want goods or assets or gold: i.e., the things that are rising in price. Interest rates also go up as banks seek to offset the devaluation of dollars to be repaid in the future.

b) Hyperinflation

Hyperinflation is just an extreme case of inflation. Normally during high inflation central banks at some point slow the presses, let their economies fall into recession, and the economy repairs itself. These boom-bust business cycles are being constantly created by central banks.

What if the central bank doesn't want to stop inflation? What if the politicians don't want the economy to go into recession and expose their reckless fiscal behavior? In that case sovereigns print more and more currency to catch up with rising prices. It is like a feedback loop. The more they print, the higher prices go, so they have to print even more. Spending the currency becomes a mission. Perhaps prices double every month, or increase daily. Hyperinflation is when money printing is so great, that people lose faith in currency. People ignore their currency and barter, or use gold or foreign currencies for transactions. Generally orderly commerce breaks down, goods become scarce, social order breaks down, and people suffer.

Why Does Hyperinflation Occur?

Aside from the mechanics of hyperinflation, why does it happen? Why do they keep printing? Aren't the central bankers and politicians smart enough to understand what is happening? The answer to that last question is, in those countries, apparently, no.

In every modern case of hyperinflation the decision to inflate was a political one, not an economic one. In almost every case hyperinflation followed a war or a coup or some massive political change such as the end of the Soviet empire or the rise of a dictator or a populist-socialist takeover, and other political unrest.

[All previous] hyperinflations all had one common denominator: during a period of instability, spending was used as a political tool and it got out of hand. Each country faced political factors that created instability or a national crisis; the government spent heavily to gain popular support, and resorted to the printing presses to pay for their spending.

Will Hyperinflation Happen in America?

Will hyperinflation happen here? It is possible but unlikely and improbable. The list above of 12 serious economic problems America faces is not exhaustive but it is accurate. Serious [as they may be, however,] they do not necessarily guarantee hyperinflation.

a) Worse Case Economic Scenario
As an exercise in hypotheticals, I extrapolated from the above 12 issues a kind of worse-case scenario for a potential hyperinflation setup:
• Government spending continues unabated, running up higher and higher deficits.
• To reduce deficits, taxation increases to, say 45% of GDP.
• As a result of high taxation, GDP declines, reducing tax revenues.
• The government floats even more debt to make up the new revenue losses.
• Interest rates on Treasurys increase substantially because of less demand due to market-perceived sovereign risk.
• The Fed starts buying large amounts of Treasurys in order to meet revenue shortfalls and to "stabilize the market" (i.e., monetizing the debt for a different purpose than they are now doing).
• The CPI takes off as the new money hits the economy and prices rise.
• Inflation risk causes interest rates to rise further.
• The debt is not being paid down with inflated dollars.
• Other major nations become fiscally more conservative thereby reducing the U.S.'s status as the reserve currency.
• U.S. sovereign credit ratings are downgraded.

The above circumstances would lead to high inflation and panic in the bond markets. It could spiral into hyperinflation but that is unlikely. More on that below.

Let's go back to the political circumstances that existed in previous incidents of hyperinflation [and relate them to the situation in the U.S.. The U.S. is not] emerging from a devastating war nor has it gone through massive societal and governmental restructuring as occurred in the post-Soviet nations [for example]. That leaves us with social unrest driven by socialist economic and political failures [but] our Nanny State is not experiencing the populist political and economic upheaval that would result from the nationalization of basic industries, state control of the economy, price and wage controls, seizure of wealth, and political intimidation and tyranny that were the trademarks of the Latin American countries. While many on the Right would like to cast Obama in this role, it is not the case.

b) Additional Political Scenario
Let's assume for the moment that my potential hyperinflation setup does happen. For hyperinflation to occur you would then have to believe in something like the following additional political scenario:
1. President Obama and the Democrats [would] have complete control of Congress, say 75 seats in the Senate and would:

  • continue to appoint leftist justices to the Supreme Court and achieve a clear majority
  • perpetuate their power through massive spending programs to reward Democratic constituencies
  • raise the pay and pensions of the unions and government workers
  • substantially raise the minimum wage
  • dramatically raise payments to middle-class and lower Social Security recipients
  • increase taxes to confiscatory levels on "big corporations" and the "rich,"
  • offer "free" health care for the "poor"
  • nationalize (directly or through total regulation) communications, energy, transportation, drug companies, and defense production in order to "bring down costs."

2. As the economy slowed down further

  • unemployment (U-3) would reach 20%+ levels
  • there would be massive political unrest and people would march in the streets
  • the military would be called out to maintain order in large cities from rioting and looters…
  • more government aid would be offered, more federal WPA-type projects would be created, and people would be "put to work."

3. In order to pay for all this

  • the federal debt would explode far beyond what we are now experiencing
  • the new Fed chairman would accommodate the government by monetizing the debt.

[As a result of the above] inflation would [jump to in excess of] 20% and keep rising until it got to hyperinflation.

Let's stop for a moment and catch our collective breaths. Those things aren't happening here. I'm not saying they couldn't happen but that's not our current path.

What Would Happen IF Hyperinflation Were to Occur

Let's go further and assume that my hypothetical factors do occur and we have high inflation which is spiraling out of control toward hyperinflation. In such a case the government's response probably would be to:

  1. Impose temporary price and wage controls
    The last time they tried that was in 1971 with Nixon. It didn't work then and it won't work now, but the purpose will not be so much to control prices, but rather to prepare the ground for their further actions to stop the crisis. I would give this 6 months at the most.
  2. Freeze the Treasury bond market
    Again, this is a temporary measure while the world organized to support our markets and the dollar.
  3. Establish a moratorium on Treasury debt repayment
    The government would extend all short-term maturities for 90 days [but that would be just] another temporary hold. Holders of our debt would unanimously agree to this. Otherwise their value of their Treasury holdings would significantly decline.
  4. Arrange for massive foreign support of the dollar and Treasurys
    The last thing our trading partners want to see is America crash and burn. International trade would very quickly dry up as the financial markets were in chaos. America still has a unique status with the dollar as the international reserve currency. You would see an immediate massive coordinated support of Treasurys and the dollar by the EU, Japan, China, the UK, and others. Recall that hyperinflation doesn't happen overnight….
  5. Raise the Fed Funds rate, drive up the cost of money
    This is the Volcker solution which is to just stop printing money. He raised the Fed Funds rate from 11.2% in 1979 to a peak of 20% by June 1981. Inflation (and stagflation) disappeared. This is the solution to any hyperinflation. After the markets cooled down, prices stabilized, and inflation subsided, controls would be lifted and life would go on. This would also sink the economy for a while, but that is better than hyperinflation and the social and political disintegration that it brings.

Why I Don't Think Hyperinflation Will Happen in America

There are economic and political reasons why I don't think hyperinflation would occur….

  1. In order for the bond market to panic, investors would have to determine that the U.S. would default on its debt. While one could argue that we don't have the ability to pay off our debt, that is true of almost all nations. The more significant question is: can the U.S. pay interest on its debt and continue to refinance its existing debt? The answer is yes. This is what buyers of U.S. Treasurys look at when they buy our debt: the likelihood of sovereign default. While the situation in the U.S. is not favorable with out of control federal spending, we still have [an excellent] rating on our debt [albeit not as good as it once was] and, more importantly, we have the ability to raise taxes in order to cover interest on our debt. If we had a [major] world crisis tomorrow…where would investors send their money? So far it has been the U.S.. I'm not saying this couldn't change, but for now, money flows here.
  2. While I think Ben Bernanke is wrong on most things, as a student of Milton Friedman he does understand hyperinflation and the risks of printing money. I think most of Obama's senior economic advisers all understand this point as well. In fact, I [think] almost all central bankers around the world understand the mechanics of hyperinflation. The exceptions would be those anti-democratic socialist regimes where monetary policy in just another tool of political policy. [Frankly,] I think it is political science fiction to think that the Fed or any politician would let hyperinflation happen here.

Conclusion

I respect many of the writers who believe that we will experience hyperinflation [but] I think most of them are jumping the gun. At this point none of the economic or political factors required to set off hyperinflation are present. [Indeed,] careful analysis of theory, fact, and history leads me to conclude that inflation/stagflation is our future. It is quite a leap of fancy to say we are certain to have hyperinflation.

[Frankly,] I think it is political science fiction to think that the Fed or any politician would let hyperinflation happen here.

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*http://dailycapitalist.com/downloads/hyperinflation.pdf

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