Gold World News Flash |
- Next Dollar Gold Target $2,400 by Mid-2013
- By the Numbers for the Week Ending October 5
- Gold Seeker Weekly Wrap-Up: Gold and Silver End Near Unchanged on the Week
- The Solar Silver Thrust
- India joins the modern world: 'Erroneous trades' cause flash crash
- James Turk: Determining the value of gold
- Why Risk-Free Assets Are Risky
- Physical Gold Demand May Now Overwhelm The Manipulators
- The Gold Price Closed $1,778.60 Up 0.5 Percent this Week but a Correction is Still Likely
- Guest Post: Gold And Triffin's Dilemma
- Bull *%#@
- Gold and Silver Disaggregated COT Report (DCOT) for October 5
- The opposing forces behind gold’s bull market
- Jim's Mailbox
- Bonds Down, Stocks Down, Gold Down, Oil Down, Jobs... Up?
- Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts - Profit Taking
- Will the Parti Québécois Alter Québec's Mine-Friendly Policies?: Eric Lemieux
- CBO tallies 2012 deficit at $1.1T
- Bonds vs. Gold, Two Years On
- Celente - Exclusive Sneak Peek Of New Trends Journal & Gold
- Nick Barisheff: The Destruction of Currency and the Rise of Gold
- Fed Quantitative Easing and Gold, Silver
- LGMR: Dollar Gold "Decidedly Bullish", Targets $2400 by Mid-2013 as Indian Demand Turns Higher
- Sprott's Embry, Agnico's Boyd interviewed at King World News
- COT Gold, Silver and US Dollar Index Report - October 5, 2012
- GoldMoney Podcast with Robert Wenzel of Economic Policy Journal
- The Opposing Forces Behind Gold's Bull Market
- The Solar Silver Thrust, Soaring Demand from PV Panels
- Embry is right and you can help…Take physical off the market.
- The Daily Market Report
| Next Dollar Gold Target $2,400 by Mid-2013 Posted: 06 Oct 2012 01:01 AM PDT Bullion Vault
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| By the Numbers for the Week Ending October 5 Posted: 05 Oct 2012 10:13 PM PDT This week's closing table is just below.
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| Gold Seeker Weekly Wrap-Up: Gold and Silver End Near Unchanged on the Week Posted: 05 Oct 2012 10:00 PM PDT Gold bumped up to $1795.84 in Asia before it spiked down to $1773.21 and then bounced back higher after this morning's jobs report was released, but it then fell back off again in the last five hours of trade and ended with a loss of 0.55%. Silver rose to $35.10 in Asia before it slipped back to $34.158 in early New York trade and then also bounced back higher, but it then dropped to as low as $34.297 in late trade and ended with a loss of 1.32%.
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| Posted: 05 Oct 2012 07:41 PM PDT By Jeff Clark, BIG GOLD In early July, Japan set a premium price for solar energy that was three times the rate of conventional power. This meant utility companies would be paid three times more for electricity sourced from solar. It's widely expected that the premium will ignite the use of solar power – and [...]
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| India joins the modern world: 'Erroneous trades' cause flash crash Posted: 05 Oct 2012 07:23 PM PDT NSE Flash Crash Pulls Nifty down by 15.5% From The Times of India, Mumbai http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/delhi/NSE-flash-crash-pulls-Nift... A flash crash on the National Stock Exchange (NSE) on Friday morning due to erroneous trades by a dealer in 59 frontline stocks pulled the NSE-50 (Nifty) index down 15.5% to 4,888, raising questions about the robustness of the bourse's software and leaving the exchange red-faced on the eve of a visit by the finance minister to the city. It recovered at the end of day's trade to close at 5,747, down 41, while the Sensex closed 120 points down at 18,938. Although NSE suspended Emkay Global Financial Services, the broking house where the trades had originated, the incident invited severe criticism from market players about why the trading was not automatically stopped by the exchange given the rules of the Securities and Exchange Board of Inida that stipulate a circuit filter should kick in when the index goes up or down 10%. In this case the trading was stopped when the index went down 15.5%, which also triggered stop losses for several investors, thus aggravating losses for no fault of theirs. The flash crash also prompted SEBI to start a preliminary investigation into the whole affair. ... Dispatch continues below ... ADVERTISEMENT Fred Goldstein and Tim Murphy open All Pro Gold Longtime GATA supporters Fred Goldstein and Tim Murphy have brought their many years of experience in the precious metals and numismatic coins to All Pro Gold as metals brokers who specialize in the delivery of gold and silver bullion bars and coins as well as numismatic gold and silver coins. Fred and Tim follow these markets closely and are assisted by a team of consultants in monitoring market trends. All Pro Gold offers GATA supporters competitive pricing on all bullion products and welcomes inquiries. Tim can be reached at 602-299-2585 and Tim@allprogold.com, Fred at 602-799-8378 and Fred@allprogold.com. Ask about their ratio strategy and the relationship of generic $20 dollar gold pieces to 1-ounce gold bullion coins. Visit their Internet site at http://www.allprogold.com/. Ravi Varanasi, head of business development for the NSE, was quoted in a statement saying that the circuit filter was triggered at 10% and the cash market was stopped, but the orders that were already in the system were executed in the next few seconds. Friday's session had started on a positive note with the Nifty up about 30 points. Then between 9.50 and 9.52 a.m., large chunks of several frontline stocks, including RIL, Infosys, ICICI Bank, SBI, TCS, and almost all the 50 Nifty constituents, were sold at prices about 20% lower than the previous closes. This led to a 899-point fall in Nifty within a few minutes, although, as per NSE's September 28 circular, trading should have been halted as soon as it crossed 570 points. On the Bombay Stock Exchange, trading continued undisrupted and a statement from the exchange, soon after the NSE incident, said that the market at BSE was "working fine and trading members are informed that there are no issues, technical or otherwise, at BSE." Some marketmen are not buying NSE's views. They questioned that if the cash market was stopped, how was it still possible to execute orders? "Five hundred and 70 points becoming 900 in intra-day trade, which is around 16%, is unacceptable, unexplainable, and cannot be tolerated when the circuit is at 10%," said Arun Kejriwal, director of investment advisory firm KRIS. Pointing at some of the recent system glitches at NSE, in April and May this year, Kejriwal said that such failures show something may be "amiss at the leading bourse." "An enquiry of the highest order must be started by SEBI and the finance ministry immediately," he said. Market players also questioned NSE's decision to resume trading within 15 minutes after the shutdown by circuit breaker. A June 2001 SEBI circular stipulated that if trading is halted due to a 10% circuit breaker, either up or down, and if such stoppage happens before 1 p.m., the exchanges should give a one-hour gap before resuming trading. If the index again goes up or down and breaks the 15% level, there should be a two-hour halt. And if the change in the index is 20%, the exchanges should be shut for the day. For example, on May 18, 2009, soon after the Congress-led UPA came back to power with a better majority, the markets were closed within a minute of their start after the two leading indices, Sensex and Nifty, gained 10%. After trading resumed following an hour's gap, the markets were shut for the day when the indices shot past the 15% mark. There was also confusion among market players when an NSE official told Bloomberg that its circuit filters didn't work due to the speed of decline, while in the official release Varanasi was quoted as saying there was "no question of any glitch or malfunctioning in NSE's systems." Join GATA here: New Orleans Investment Conference * * * Support GATA by purchasing DVDs of our London conference in August 2011 or our Dawson City conference in August 2006: http://www.goldrush21.com/order.html Or by purchasing a colorful GATA T-shirt: Or a colorful poster of GATA's full-page ad in The Wall Street Journal on January 31, 2009: http://gata.org/node/wallstreetjournal Help keep GATA going GATA is a civil rights and educational organization based in the United States and tax-exempt under the U.S. Internal Revenue Code. Its e-mail dispatches are free, and you can subscribe at: To contribute to GATA, please visit: ADVERTISEMENT Opinion Around the World Is Changing When Deutschebank calls gold "good money" and paper "bad money". ... http://www.gata.org/node/11765 When the president of the German central bank, the Bundesbank, pays tribute to gold as "a timeless classic". ... http://www.forbes.com/sites/ralphbenko/2012/09/24/signs-of-the-gold-stan... When a leading member of the policy committee of the People's Bank of China calls the gold standard "an excellent monetary system". ... http://www.forbes.com/sites/ralphbenko/2012/10/01/signs-of-the-gold-stan... When a CNN reporter writes in The China Post that the "gold commission" plank in the 2012 Republican platform will "reverberate around the world". ... http://www.thegoldstandardnow.org/key-blogs/1563-china-post-the-gop-gold... When the Subcommittee on Domestic Monetary Policy of the U.S. House of Representatives twice called on economist, historian, and gold standard advocate Lewis E. Lehrman to testify. ... World opinion is changing in favor of gold. How can you learn why and what it will mean to you? Read the newly updated and expanded edition of Lehrman's book, "The True Gold Standard." Financial journalist James Grant says of "The True Gold Standard": "If you have ever wondered how the world can get from here to there -- from the chaos of depreciating paper to a convertible currency worthy of our children and our grandchildren -- wonder no more. The answer, brilliantly expounded, is between these covers. America has long needed a modern Alexander Hamilton. In Lewis E. Lehrman she has finally found him." To buy a copy of "The True Gold Standard," please visit: http://www.thegoldstandardnow.com/publications/the-true-gold-standard
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| James Turk: Determining the value of gold Posted: 05 Oct 2012 07:00 PM PDT 9p ET Friday, October 5, 2012 Dear Friend of GATA and Gold: In his latest commentary, GoldMoney founder and GATA consultant James Turk explains that as gold is money, its value is calculated as a function of ever-inflating government-issued currencies. "Some say that the gold price rises and falls," Turk writes, "but they are grabbing the wrong end of the stick. It is the purchasing power of national currencies that rises and falls. Here is an analogy to make this point clear. When standing in a boat and looking at the shore, it is the boat (currencies)and not the land (gold) that is bobbing up and down." Turk's commentary is headlined "Determining the Value of Gold" and it's posted at GoldMoney's Internet site here: http://www.goldmoney.com/gold-research/james-turk/determining-the-value-... CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer ADVERTISEMENT Opinion Around the World Is Changing When Deutschebank calls gold "good money" and paper "bad money". ... http://www.gata.org/node/11765 When the president of the German central bank, the Bundesbank, pays tribute to gold as "a timeless classic". ... http://www.forbes.com/sites/ralphbenko/2012/09/24/signs-of-the-gold-stan... When a leading member of the policy committee of the People's Bank of China calls the gold standard "an excellent monetary system". ... http://www.forbes.com/sites/ralphbenko/2012/10/01/signs-of-the-gold-stan... When a CNN reporter writes in The China Post that the "gold commission" plank in the 2012 Republican platform will "reverberate around the world". ... http://www.thegoldstandardnow.org/key-blogs/1563-china-post-the-gop-gold... When the Subcommittee on Domestic Monetary Policy of the U.S. House of Representatives twice called on economist, historian, and gold standard advocate Lewis E. Lehrman to testify. ... World opinion is changing in favor of gold. How can you learn why and what it will mean to you? Read the newly updated and expanded edition of Lehrman's book, "The True Gold Standard." Financial journalist James Grant says of "The True Gold Standard": "If you have ever wondered how the world can get from here to there -- from the chaos of depreciating paper to a convertible currency worthy of our children and our grandchildren -- wonder no more. The answer, brilliantly expounded, is between these covers. America has long needed a modern Alexander Hamilton. In Lewis E. Lehrman she has finally found him." To buy a copy of "The True Gold Standard," please visit: http://www.thegoldstandardnow.com/publications/the-true-gold-standard Join GATA here: New Orleans Investment Conference * * * Support GATA by purchasing DVDs of our London conference in August 2011 or our Dawson City conference in August 2006: http://www.goldrush21.com/order.html Or by purchasing a colorful GATA T-shirt: Or a colorful poster of GATA's full-page ad in The Wall Street Journal on January 31, 2009: http://gata.org/node/wallstreetjournal Help keep GATA going GATA is a civil rights and educational organization based in the United States and tax-exempt under the U.S. Internal Revenue Code. Its e-mail dispatches are free, and you can subscribe at: To contribute to GATA, please visit: ADVERTISEMENT Fred Goldstein and Tim Murphy open All Pro Gold Longtime GATA supporters Fred Goldstein and Tim Murphy have brought their many years of experience in the precious metals and numismatic coins to All Pro Gold as metals brokers who specialize in the delivery of gold and silver bullion bars and coins as well as numismatic gold and silver coins. Fred and Tim follow these markets closely and are assisted by a team of consultants in monitoring market trends. All Pro Gold offers GATA supporters competitive pricing on all bullion products and welcomes inquiries. Tim can be reached at 602-299-2585 and Tim@allprogold.com, Fred at 602-799-8378 and Fred@allprogold.com. Ask about their ratio strategy and the relationship of generic $20 dollar gold pieces to 1-ounce gold bullion coins. Visit their Internet site at http://www.allprogold.com/.
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| Why Risk-Free Assets Are Risky Posted: 05 Oct 2012 06:42 PM PDT Via Artemis Capital, "Volatility of an Impossible Object: Risk, Fear, and Safety in Games of Perception" by Christopher Cole Why owning a UST bond is mathematically as risky as shorting an equity put option... We all know shorting volatility is dangerous. We learned our lessons from the financial crisis. We all meticulously read "The Black Swan" and then watched the scary movie adaption of the book starring Natalie Portman. We all know that this method produces a steady stream of smooth returns making people think you are a genius until the inevitable disaster forces you to pawn off your Nobel Prize. We all know that shorting volatility will cause you to go insane with a twisted psycho-sexual obsession to master the art of ballet. It's picking up pennies in front of a convexity steamroller. Don't do it. Ever!! Worst of all... If you ever... ever... short volatility... Nassim Taleb will personally insult you and hurt your feelings. Knowing these facts I would like to pose a question... Which is riskier right now? Shorting a collateralized far out-of-the-money S&P 500 index put or buying a "risk-free" US treasury bond? In the "bull market for fear" and "bubble in safety" the paradox is that these two vastly different investments have shockingly similar risk to return profiles (albeit to different risk factors). This goes against everything you have ever been taught in business school or on a CFA exam. In fact I will attempt to make a semi-compelling argument that the collateralized far-OTM put sale offers… gasp… a better risk to return profile than a long-dated UST. For the record I don't recommend either. First off measuring the risk to reward of a volatility short position is often a complex endeavor involving greeks like gammas, vegas, volgas, and vanna whites. Let's just simplify that entire process and "pretend" a put option is an alternative form of a bond. As an investor in this hypothetical "volatility bond" you receive an annualized "volatility yield" represented by the premium of the option divided by the capital commitment required to fund the obligation. In return for this yield you assume the risk of "default", essentially meaning an obligation to buy the S&P 500 index at a pre-defined discount to current market value (say -25% or -50%). Now you will collateralize that option by setting aside the dollar amount of monies over the specified term needed to cover that purchase commitment. That collateral is equivalent to the "face value" of the bond and the "yield" is the option premium divided by that collateral and annualized. If the default event is a $100 stock falling to the -50% strike price in one year you would set aside $50 for the term of the commitment to cover mark-to-mark losses on the short option position. If you receive $2.5 in premium for selling the put option your yield is 5% (against a face value of $50). We looked at several different types of hypothetical "volatility bonds". The first requires you to purchase the S&P 500 Index at a -25% discount to the current price for the duration of a year. The second obligates you to buy the S&P 500 index near the March 6, 2009 lows (650 strike price or -55% lower) for the duration of a year. We also obtained bank pricing on a 10-year over-the-counter put option at the 2009 low of 666. We can then compare these "volatility yields" to traditional fixed income yields. No complex greeks required. (click for larger eligible version)
For the first time in history the volatility bond yield is consistently competitive with the yield on a wide variety of traditional fixed income investments (see above).What does it say when the market will compensate you more in annualized yield for the obligation to buy the S&P 500 index at the 2009 devil's bottom of 666 (1.90% annualized yield for 10-year OTC put) than it will to own a government bond (1.87% yield for 10-year UST) of equivalent maturity? Consider that the 1-year volatility bond with a -25% SPX purchase commitment currently yields 2.69% annually or 82 basis point over the 10-year UST (chart below).
In periods of equity market duress the spread can go much higher hitting 454 basis points over the 10yr UST this past May. I know what you are thinking... what about the risks? (click for larger eligible version)
The volatility bond and the UST bond have opposite risks factors as the first is exposed to deflation (stocks crashing) and the second inflation (higher interest rates). For the purposes of this analysis we assume a neutral macro-economic view. As a baseline for comparison our stress test uses historical bond and equity prices over multiple decades to match the equivalent probability of each stress event. It may feel as if a 325 basis point increase in rates is extraordinary but it is easy to forget that the historical probability of that occurring is much greater (13%) than that of a 2008 style crash in equities (2%). Of course this is backward looking. Ultimately the true future probability estimate is always left to the best judgment of the investor. Mark-to-Market Risk: Fair comparison of risk includes analysis of potential unrealized losses for both investments when exposed to adverse market conditions as modeled by the stress tests above. The volatility bond will experience a mark-to-market loss if stocks decline and vol rises, however if the short put option remains out-of-the-money by maturity those losses will not be realized and the investor will keep the full premium. In a similar manner the UST bond will have negative price swings if rates increase but could still make all payments on time. The investor holding either instrument to maturity may be none the wiser if he received his principal back in full and never looked at mark-to-market prices (a retired broker once told me this was how client reporting of fixed income worked at his firm back in the rising rate environment of the 1970s). Important to note that both positions have convex return profiles and prices will not change linearly given shifts in volatility or rates. Default Risk: I think it is funny when academics claim that the US government will never default because it can just print money to pay off its debt obligations. That is the logical equivalent of saying my house will never be burglarized because if someone tried to break in I could just light it on fire. For the UST bond inflation and currency devaluation are alternative forms of default. For the volatility bond the definition of default is not as complex. If the short put ended in-the-money at maturity the investor would be obligated to own the discounted SPX at the higher strike rate resulting in a loss on posted collateral. This "default" scenario may not be a bad thing if the investor doesn't mind owning stocks at a -50% or -25% discount from today but it still counts for our purposes. Hence the volatility bond has much higher risk here. One unique attribute of the volatility bond is that it is a contractual obligation to ignore behavioral bias and purchase stocks only during periods of deep discounted value. When the "bull market in fear" meets a "bubble in safety" a collateralized short volatility position and "risk-free' UST bond have shockingly similar risk-to-reward payoffs. Of course you would rather own the UST bond in deflation or the volatility bond in inflation but we are assuming a risk neutral world. To this effect both investments suffer comparable losses to their worst case scenarios. Without endorsing either investment, when evaluated on a pure risk-to-reward framework the volatility bond (with embedded short optionality) is superior to UST bonds at current prices. What kind of world do we live in where the risk-return pay-off of short selling equity volatility is equal or better to that of a supposedly "risk-free" government bond? The UST bond market is one of the most liquid markets in the world where investors look to first for preservation of capital during periods of crisis. Now the market for safety has an efficient frontier on par with the penny in front of the steamroller trade? If you don't find that scary then you're not paying attention. It used to be that you would post margin against your tail risk options using risk-free UST bonds. Now those risk-free assets are the source of the tail-risk.
When risk-free is risky maybe it is time to buy volatility on safety itself (see chart above).
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| Physical Gold Demand May Now Overwhelm The Manipulators Posted: 05 Oct 2012 06:00 PM PDT from KingWorldNews:
Today John Embry told King World News, "I won't be really excited in this market until we see a $100 up day, and I think that's coming sooner than most people realize." Embry also stated, "… as physical demand accelerates, availability is declining, and that bespeaks higher prices." Here is what Embry, who is Chief Investment Strategist at Sprott Asset Management, had to say: "The people on the long side have figured out the game and they know the wind is at their back. So when one of these raids is staged, there is just a wall of buying lined up at a certain place, and that's why these declines stop and then they reverse quite quickly." John Embry continues @ KingWorldNews.com
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| The Gold Price Closed $1,778.60 Up 0.5 Percent this Week but a Correction is Still Likely Posted: 05 Oct 2012 05:51 PM PDT Gold Price Close Today : 1,778.60 Gold Price Close 28-Sep : 1,770.40 Change : 8.20 or 0.5% Silver Price Close Today : 34.52 Silver Price Close 28-Sep : 34.42 Change : 0.1 or 0.3% Gold Silver Ratio Today : 51.530 Gold Silver Ratio 28-Sep : 51.429 Change : 0.10 or 0.2% Silver Gold Ratio : 0.01941 Silver Gold Ratio 28-Sep : 0.01944 Change : -0.00004 or -0.2% Dow in Gold Dollars : $ 158.18 Dow in Gold Dollars 28-Sep : $ 156.90 Change : $ 1.29 or 0.8% Dow in Gold Ounces : 7.652 Dow in Gold Ounces 28-Sep : 7.590 Change : 0.06 or 0.8% Dow in Silver Ounces : 394.31 Dow in Silver Ounces 28-Sep : 390.34 Change : 3.97 or 1.0% Dow Industrial : 13,610.15 Dow Industrial 28-Sep : 13,437.13 Change : 173.02 or 1.3% S&P 500 : 1,460.93 S&P 500 28-Sep : 1,440.67 Change : 20.26 or 1.4% US Dollar Index : 79.417 US Dollar Index 28-Sep : 79.922 Change : -0.505 or -0.6% Platinum Price Close Today : 1,703.30 Platinum Price Close 28-Sep : 1,647.40 Change : 55.90 or 3.4% Palladium Price Close Today : 661.75 Palladium Price Close 28-Sep : 626.80 Change : 34.95 or 5.6% 'Twas not a bright day for the silver and GOLD PRICE, but neither was it fatal. Gold shaved off $15.50 to close $1,778.60, while silver peeled away 52.5 cents to 3451.6c. Look closer. The GOLD PRICE five day chart plainly shows a peak yesterday about $1,795, followed by a sharp slide today. Yet $1,775 contained two thrusts downward, and that, I remind y'all, stands above $1,773-ish support-resistance. It held. On a longer chart, gold has now drawn two tops, with a spike low to $1,740 between. This is a broadening top, a reversal, unless and until gainsaid by a close above those double tops. The 20 DMA awaits below at $1,767.31. Should gold break that, all those cosmic gobs of trend-following hot money will dump gold quicker than a fool drops a red hot horseshoe. WHEREFORE although gold closed barely higher (0.5%) this week, next week is more likely to weigh gold down. In fact, my boundaries from last week still hold: Gold above $1,805 (2 day close) with silver above 3525c screams that no correction is coming soon, or Gold below $1,738 (1 day close) with silver below 3336c sets both up for lower prices. The 20 day moving averages, first tripwire of a decline, stand now at 3438c and $1,767.31. Any closes thereunder point down. Correction targets are $1,700, $1,691.90 (50 DMA) and $1,650 for gold, 3200c and 3100c for 3200c and 3100c for silver. If they do fall, expect to last no more than 3 weeks. The SILVER PRICE marked its low today at 3430c, high at 3509. Silver's 5-day chart is not a reflection of gold's. Silver has a range, call it 3535c - 3420c. It broke downward today and closed nearer the range's bottom than its top. 3420c support therefore becomes worth watching that much more closely. Panic not, neither lose heart. 'Tis a natural and usual correction silver and gold will make. It will strengthen them just like pruning strengthens a pear tree. By June 2013 $2,000 gold will be ancient history. Y'all cheer up. A glorious fall is coming up and the election season has almost ended. I know a guy who's addicted to brake fluid. He says he can stop any time. Y'all, I oughtn't be doing this job, because I am highly allergic to Hogwash. I am, quite literally, risking a fatal Hogwash reaction just reading about central banks, banks and governments, let alone thinking, pondering, and writing about 'em. One of these days they're gonna find me here on the floor, four paws in the air, dead as a ball peen hammer. Take today. US government jobs report said 174,000 new jobs were added and unemployment rate dropped from 8.1% to 7.8%. No. 1, it's a government report and we all know the way to tell a government employee is lying is to watch his lips. If they move, he's lying. No. 2, it's in an election year, but we know NO honest administration would pressure its bean counters to fake statistics. Yes, but we haven't had an honest administration since James K. Polk retired in 1849. No. 3, they way they count unemployment, you are only "unemployed" until you despair and give up looking for a job. Then you are no longer unemployed. For all these reasons, said report was almost as meaningful as an anemometer in a tornado, but nonetheless, markets, with the attention span of a fruit fly, reacted. If Bernanke is watching unemployment, and it drops, then he will print less money, so inflation will drop and the dollar ought to rise and gold to drop. And since clearly unemployment is improving, stocks ought to rise, too, because the economy is recuperating. Y'all know this makes no sense at all, but markets bought it, like they always swallow the hogwash that central banks and governments can fix they economy they broke in the first place. I have to change the subject. My throat's tightening up and I'm breaking out in hives. Not one single event today changed my suspicious mind. I still expect the dollar to stage a surprise rally, and silver and gold to correct. In fact, today hardened my suspicions. US dollar index yesterday fell out of an even-sided triangle downward, but was that a false breakdown? Today it traded down to 79.103, sharply and suddenly, but just as suddenly climbed back up, leaving behind the V-bottom characteristic of reversals. Ended up trading 79.417, up 5.4 basis points. In other words, it tried to break down, but didn't. Provided it advances Monday beyond 79.45, and doesn't close below that 79.10, the US dollar reversed today. Whether it can now conquer resistance at 80 above, we'll see. Remember, no long dollar rally is needed here to trip silver and gold. They are already vulnerable after a long rally of their own. Today US$1 = Y78.67 = €0.7678. Euro barely climbed, up 0.04% to $1.3025. Yesterday the head of the wicked criminal enterprise known as the "European Central Bank," Mario "The Enforcer" Draghi, announced that the ECB would soon begin buying bonds. He is a master of the gas bag, with a deep grasp of the Blarney Cannon. He fires the blarney cannon, then doesn't need to follow through with the acts, because with central bankers, words speak louder than deeds. Yen lost again today, 0.24% to 127.12c. It draweth nigh unto its 200 DMA, 126.19c. Friends, stocks are not right. Remember one day earlier this week all the indices dropped but the Potemkin Dow rose a skootch? It had that sulfury stench of Nice Government Men all over it. Then today, all the indices save the Dow and the Nasdaq 100 PMI (whatever that is) closed down. Nasdaq lost 0.42%, Nasdaq 100 lost 0.59%, Russell 2000 lost 0.27%, S&P500 even lost a tiny 0.3%, but not the Dow. It gained 0.28%. Now defenestrate the Nice Government Men -- throw 'em out the window and don't even think about manipulation. Markets as interwoven as these stock indices ought, generally, all rise in step. When all the other indices close down, but the Dow closes up, it's a glaring non-confirmation. Oh, I confess that one swallow doth not a spring make, but this queasy performance twice ought to make the wary swallow hard. I thank all of you most humbly for so strongly supporting my new book, At Home In Dogwood Mudhole. Y'all just keep on buying them (and thanks, Brazil, for your order). If you'd still like to order, we're still selling it at http://store.the-moneychanger.com/collections/frontpage/products/at-home-in-dogwood-mudhole-vol1 AHIDM comes with a money back guarantee: If it doesn't make you laugh, cry, gasp, hug your spouse, or jump up and down (any one of the five), I'll refund your money even though I won't believe you, and you can use the book to throw at your smart-aleck brother-in-law. Y'all enjoy your weekend. Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought. - Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger The-MoneyChanger.com 1-888-218-9226 10:00am-5:00pm CST, Monday-Friday © 2012, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission. To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down. WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned: Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures. NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps. NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced. NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt. What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands. One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose. No, I don't.  
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| Guest Post: Gold And Triffin's Dilemma Posted: 05 Oct 2012 05:34 PM PDT Submitted by Joe Yasinksi and Dan Flynn of GBI, Have you seen Robert Triffin?
The obscure Belgian economist Robert Triffin is not only very dead he also isn't exactly a household name, yet. Triffin, who died in 1993 studied at Harvard, taught at Yale, worked at the Federal Reserve, the IMF, and was a key contributor to the formation of the European monetary system. Triffin exposed serious flaws in the Bretton Woods monetary system and perfectly predicted it's inevitable demise yet his work remains largely ignored and unstudied by today's mainstream economists. This "flaw" became known as the Triffin dilemma, and many believe Triffin's dilemma has as serious implications today as it did 50 years ago. In short, Triffin proposed that when one nations currency also becomes the worlds reserve asset, eventually domestic and international monetary objectives diverge. Have you ever wondered how it's possible that the USA has run a trade deficit for 37 consecutive years? Have you ever considered the consequences on the value of your Dollar denominated assets if it eventually becomes an unacceptable form of payment to our trading partners? Thankfully for those of us trying to navigate the current financial morass, Robert Triffin did. Prior to the 1944 Bretton Woods agreement, central banks used gold as the asset to back their currencies. By the end of World War II, the United States had established itself as the world's creditor and largest holders of gold. Under the 1944 Bretton Woods agreement, the US Dollar was fully backed by gold at a fixed value of 1/35th an ounce per dollar, and foreign Central Banks could use US Dollar assets as reserves backing their currency, in lieu of gold. This agreement avoided the inevitable deflationary pressure a return to pre-war gold/currency ratios would have forced just as Europe was beginning to rebuild, and allowed US debt held abroad to be used as an asset by central banks against their local currencies. In the 1960's Triffin observed that there existed an excess of dollars offshore relative to the gold available to tender at the set $35 price. He hypothesized that given foreign central bank demand for dollars as reserves, the trend of a growing and continuing glut of dollars was going to continue unabated. It would continue until the excess reserves would so clearly be many multiples of the gold available to satisfy them that enough countries would start tendering dollars for gold and eventually the entire scheme would collapse. Triffin went as far as congress in 1960 to testify that the system as currently devised could not possibly maintain both liquidity and a stable value in the dollar and eventually, the agreement would prove unsustainable. As Triffin predicted, on August 15, 1971 the United States closed the gold window as Richard Nixon came on national television and defaulted on US gold obligations while national gold reserves drained from over 20,000 tons to 8,133 tons. Up until Nixons actions, foreign sovereigns tendered their dollars for gold at an increasing pace. On that day, nations that were holding US dollars because they were "as good as gold" were left with paper promises and nothing more. At that time, the world was at a crossroads. Would foreign governments and trade partners continue to accept fully fiat US Dollars? The alternative was a deflationary return to a hard (pre-Bretton Woods) gold standard. It can be argued that structural support was granted to the dollar given the fact that with cheap oil, the US economy was expanding at a pace far more rapid than the growth in US government debt. They rationalized that US dollar was still a claim on future growth and production and the rest of the world was lifting it's standard of living as well. Going backwards to the last failed monetary regime was politically unappealing. And so the US dollar hegemony continues to this day. The dollar is fully entrenched as the settlement currency for international trade. As of today if any nation wants to buy oil, the lifeblood of the global economy, they pay in dollars. This alone, along with demand for foreign reserves create an unnatural demand for US assets, specifically treasury debt. Robert Triffin opined that the collapse of Bretton woods did not solve his dilemma because the country that supplies the world with it's reserve asset in the form of their currency and debt will still be forced to supply an excess of this reserve to satisfy world demand and thus, run a trade deficit in perpetuity. Such a dynamic can not exist under the natural laws of economics, it can only survive only with active and unanimous political support and intervention. The issue facing the modern United States is that since the rest of the world uses the US dollar as a reserve behind their own currencies, that demand has allowed the United States to run a deficit in perpetuity and the mechanics of this trade has allowed the US to export price inflation abroad. Quite simply, the US imports real goods in excess of the real goods it exports. The deficit balance minus service exports is made up with printed US dollars. Our trade partners ship/recycle the same dollars back to the United States in exchange for US Treasury Debt. The US Treasuries are held as reserves on the balance sheet of their central bank, and local currency printed against those new reserves. This process, although inflationary for our trade partner, allows them to keep their currency weak vs the US Dollar and prices cheap for US consumers. Every nation on earth other than the United States has a limit to their potential trade deficit confined by their existing reserves plus their borrowing capacity. Not only does the US have the capacity to run a perpetual and growing trade deficit but the rest of the world actually demands us to run a balance of payment deficit or else their reserves will have to shrink, along with their credit, currency and economy. Good deal for us, no? This situation means that for 40 years our trade partners have not only tolerated, but dysfunctionally enabled our perpetual deficits. The United States has had the "exorbitant privilege" of being the issuer of the worlds' reserve currency. We've all enjoyed the benefits, now comes the pain. Sure enough as Triffin foretold the US trade surplus began shrinking immediately after the collapse of Bretton Woods and transitioned to a permanent trade deficit by 1975, never to return to a surplus to date, 37 years later. The previously stable national debt (with a permanent ceiling of $400 billion dollars) has ballooned to over $16 trillion dollars, a multiple of 40 times what it was during the previous monetary regime. Given this 4-decade perpetual trade deficit with the rest of the world and "hyperinflation" of US dollar credits and claims, many have wondered how the US has avoided massive price inflation at home. Triffin's dilemma continues to play an important role in the ongoing financial crisis the world has found itself in since 2008. The governor of the Peoples Bank of China specifically referenced Triffin's Dilemma as the root cause of the current financial disorder and suggested an immediate effort to transition away from the US dollar to avoid more catastrophic consequences. The US Council on Foreign Relations aptly describes why Triffin's dilemma becomes unsustainable:
Have we reached the day when the United States has become unsustainably burdened? Can US debt honestly be considered to still be risk free? S&P certainly doesn't think so, neither does our second largest creditor, China (after our own Federal Reserve) who has been a net seller of US government debt for some time now. And where will the world go to find another dependable asset to hold as a store of value? Triffin's endgame is simple. A rapid diversification of reserves out of the dollar by foreign central banks. This diversification out of the dollar is only possible given a viable alternative. More and more nations are agreeing to unilateral trade agreements settled in their individual currencies. With each new agreement, global demand for the dollar wanes. It is no coincidence that QE1 coincided with China and the rest of the world backing off demand for US treasury debt. The amounts of QE2 and QE3 match perfectly (or close enough for government work) with US trade deficits from 2009 to today. Given the US Government's seemingly permanent addiction to "free" foreign goods, the trade deficit appears to be irreversible. The extreme danger for those of us in the United States, holding assets denominated in US dollars, is that the Fed is actively creating base money to feed the addiction. As the monetary base grows, the value of existing US dollar denominated assets and credit is devalued. One way to protect against this debasement of your savings is to do as the central banks do – acquire and hold physical gold bullion. The blueprint for this alternative has been in plain sight since the late 1990's, and if you watch what central banks do – not what they say – you can benefit. For the first time in FOUR DECADES, global central banks have become net buyers of gold. This central bank demand has been driven by countries that previously had an insatiable appetite for US treasury debt – most notably China. After 40 years, the political and structural support for US dollar holdings abroad is slipping away. Foreign central banks know that the only way to protect their reserves (and defend the value of their home currency), is by holding gold. Their preparations are well under way. Just as central banks are increasing their gold purchases, private citizens also are exercising their right to diversify their own private reserves. But given the still infinitesimal rates of gold ownership (1% tops most estimates) there is a long way to go. Why shouldn't the average person do what the big boys are doing? Diversifying out of the dollar, out of paper currencies and making sure their assets aren't someone else's liability seem prudent for everyone in times like there. Here at GBI, we see ourselves as a way for every investor to have the choice on how to save their stored labor. We want to make it as easy to buy and sell gold as it is to move money from your savings account to your checking account. We can all walk in the footsteps of the giants, as a Friend and mentor is apt to say. As a bonus, if gold was to become the worlds foremost reserve asset, would that not finally solve good old Triffins dilemma? Wouldn't gold serving as the preferred global saving vehicle and fiat continuing to serve as the worlds spending vehicle finally break the natural tension Triffin has so aptly illuminated for us? Perhaps, but given golds stable supply and other unique features (see our next essay titled "Forget Supply and Demand, it's all Stock to Flow."), it would by necessity be at a much higher price to function in that reserve role. Some estimates put that potential price into the many tens of thousands of dollars, and given a monetary and fiscal path that seems to be following Triffin's fateful trajectory, how could any price be ruled out?
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| Posted: 05 Oct 2012 04:55 PM PDT The following is automatically syndicated from Grandich's blog. You can view the original post here. Stay up to date on his model portfolio! October 05, 2012 02:26 PM Not quite like my $2 million gold bet offer, but I’m more than willing to better a pretty penny in a few months the “government” will announce that today’s “employment” numbers will be greatly adjusted to the downside. This of course shall be during the Obama’s Umpteen vacation in preparation for his second term. This article describes today’s farce. I can hear it now – who cares if the debate showed the real man he got employment down… Four more years…. Ugh! [url]http://www.grandich.com/[/url] grandich.com...
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| Gold and Silver Disaggregated COT Report (DCOT) for October 5 Posted: 05 Oct 2012 03:52 PM PDT HOUSTON -- This week's Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) disaggregated commitments of traders (DCOT) report was released at 15:30 ET Friday. Our recap of the changes in weekly positioning by the disaggregated trader classes, as compiled by the CFTC, is just below. In the DCOT table above a net short position shows as a negative figure in red. A net long position shows in black. In the Change column, a negative number indicates either an increase to an existing net short position or a reduction of a net long position. A black figure in the Change column indicates an increase to an existing long position or a reduction of an existing net short position. The way to think of it is that black figures in the Change column are traders getting "longer" and red figures are traders getting less long or shorter. All of the trader's positions are calculated net of spreading contracts as of the Tuesday disaggregated COT report. Vultures, (Got Gold Report Subscribers) please note that updates to our linked technical charts, including our comments about the COT reports and the week's technical changes, should be completed by the usual time on Sunday (by 18:00 ET).
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| The opposing forces behind gold’s bull market Posted: 05 Oct 2012 03:14 PM PDT [FONT=Arial]What accounts for gold’s strong performance since the initial rebound in July? That’s the question that many analysts are (belatedly) trying to answer. The first and most obvious answer is stimulus; specifically the stimulus provided by the world’s leading central bank in the U.S. The Federal Reserve’s latest bond-buying scheme known as QE3 is to date the biggest stimulus aid that has had an impact in boosting the gold price. As we all know, gold loves inflation and any increase in monetary liquidity in the global financial system will be reflected in an increasing gold price sooner or later. Analysts have noted that the gold price has recently increased in, Euro, Swiss Franc and Indian Rupee terms, which indicates monetary stimulus particularly benefits gold. As bullion broker Sharps Pixley observed, “This is not just a weak dollar story.” On a more technical level, the explanation you’ve heard me ...
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| Posted: 05 Oct 2012 02:35 PM PDT Hello Jim, When a tiny country like Paraguay that is normally considered in the pocket of the US reports a recent purchase of 8 tonnes of gold, you know that the tailwind that is driving gold to higher levels is getting stronger. Our day will come! The sad side of this missive is that Continue reading Jim's Mailbox
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| Bonds Down, Stocks Down, Gold Down, Oil Down, Jobs... Up? Posted: 05 Oct 2012 02:23 PM PDT While Europe was ripping higher this morning, commodity prices were slipping quietly lower and Treasury prices higher as the USD was very modestly higher and US equity futures were treading water. The payroll print provided the fuel to pump us up to within a tick of the year's highs in the S&P, smashed the USD weaker, twanged Treasury yields higher and sent Financials and Materials zooming higher. Unable to break those record highs, stocks reversed as Energy (Oil was sliding once again) and Tech (AAPL) led them lower. Within a few hours we had retraced the entire NFP spike in FX and equity markets but Treasury yields kept pushing higher (30Y +14bps on the week). Gold closes green on the week while Oil/Silver/Copper were red as the AUD lost almost 2% against the USD and EUR gained 1%. AAPL tumbled 2%, closing below its 50DMA for its biggest 2-week slide in six months. VIX was jabbed under 14% briefly but ended fractionally lower on the day at 14.4% (-0.2vols). Equities and risk-assets disengaged today and equity's inability to manage a late-day ramp (and AAPL closing at lows) must be a little concerning for the cheerleaders. Gold and Silver remain the post-QEternity winners, followed by the Dow, with Oil and European stocks lagging...
and while the Transports remain the post-QEternity losers, they have caught up a little this week as the Russell and Nasdaq pull back...
S&P futures gave back some of the week's gains and was unable to stage a decent ramp into the close. We have seen three high volume, high average trade size sell-offs this week punctuated by a lovely linear tickle-algo-driven ramp...
Gold drifted lower post-NFP, and while the USD and stocks diverged from the barbarous relic in the short-term, they repidly turned back around as the post-European close proceeded. Bonds kept pushing higher in yield to end somewhat synchronized on the week with stocks (from their early Monday correlations)...
Quite a week for Oil... but Gold managed to close the week positive (up 0.5%) and Silver and Copper unch...
The USD, aside from the 70-pip ramp-and-return in EUR this morning, has been dead-pan flat for over 24 hours - ending the week -0.75%. AUD has lost significant ground on the week and the day (as JPY also dropped 0.85% on the week against the USD)...
Treasuries slid all week - with 30Y ending +14bps and 10Y +10bps - all inching close to unch from QEternity levels...
While we touched the year's highs in the indices today, the sectors are behaving quite differently since the post-QEternity peak... with Healthcare +3.5% since the 9/14 peak, Staples +1.5%, Utilities Unch, Financials & Tech -2.5%, and Energy -4.8%...
and the major financials tried to recapture the 9/14 post-QEternity highs today but were immediately sold... BofA and MS are -4.5% from that peak despite the apparent euphoria...
So the indices keep on suggesting the world is fixed and life is good, the risk-aversion seems high. Charts: Bloomberg
Bonus Chart: unLOCKed value... after IPOing at $9.00 per share, opening at $8.66, spiking to $9.02, LOCK has dropped to close at its lows at $7.30 - for a 19% wealth transfer in 3 days - congratulations...
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| Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts - Profit Taking Posted: 05 Oct 2012 02:18 PM PDT |
| Will the Parti Québécois Alter Québec's Mine-Friendly Policies?: Eric Lemieux Posted: 05 Oct 2012 02:14 PM PDT The Gold Report: Eric, you primarily cover mining companies in Québec, one of Canada's most mining-friendly provinces. However, last month the Parti Québécois (PQ) won a minority mandate. Are the glory days for Québec's mining sector over? Eric Lemieux: Without saying the glory days are over, the election of the Parti Québécois will definitely put things on hold. The PQ has a very pro-environment and anti-mining perspective based on the personal convictions of certain ministers. I think the PQ will change some of the priorities in Québec. I do not know if it will turn out to be effectively anti-mining. I think its people will just want to do things differently or give the perception that they are doing things differently. Recall the PQ held a very pro-ecological, anti-mining electoral stance that went in-line with the "printemps érable" (Maple Spring Arising) with the student protests. At the end of the day, I am optimistic that Québec will continue as a favorable jurisdiction, jus...
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| CBO tallies 2012 deficit at $1.1T Posted: 05 Oct 2012 02:12 PM PDT 05-Sep (AP) — A new estimate puts the deficit for the just-completed 2012 budget year at $1.1 trillion, the fourth straight year of trillion dollar deficits on President Barack Obama's watch. The result was a slight improvement from the 2011 deficit of $1.3 trillion. The bleak figures from the Congressional Budget Office, while expected, add fodder for the heated presidential campaign, in which Obama's handling of the economy and the budget is a main topic. [source]
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| Posted: 05 Oct 2012 01:59 PM PDT |
| Celente - Exclusive Sneak Peek Of New Trends Journal & Gold Posted: 05 Oct 2012 01:57 PM PDT  Today top trends forecaster Gerald Celente gave King World News readers and listeners an exclusive sneak peek of the Autumn Trends Journal. Celente is the founder of Trends Research, and the man many consider to be the top trends forecaster in the world. In his audio interview, Celente gave his forecasts for gold, silver, real estate, the global economy, and much more. But first, here is a small portion of what Celente had to say about the global economy and gold: "The global economy is crashing. This is unprecedented, Eric, what's going on, the amount of cheap money they are printing. And it is totally against the charter for them to buy up these worthless bonds from all of these countries that are suffering, but they are doing it."
This posting includes an audio/video/photo media file: Download Now |
| Nick Barisheff: The Destruction of Currency and the Rise of Gold Posted: 05 Oct 2012 01:49 PM PDT "We get the jobs numbers at 8:30 a.m. Eastern time this morning...and it's always interesting to see how the precious metals react." ...
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| Fed Quantitative Easing and Gold, Silver Posted: 05 Oct 2012 01:38 PM PDT Adam Hamilton October 5, 2012 3282 Words After the Federal Reserve launched QE3 last month, investors and speculators are growing excited about its future impact on gold and silver. Though the Fed’s QE3 campaign started out relatively small, its open-ended nature is utterly unprecedented. Thus an unknown amount of future inflation will be spawned. Naturally gold and silver thrive in such environments, as they proved during QE1 and QE2. Of course QE stands for quantitative easing. Even as a lifelong student of the financial markets, I don’t recall hearing this term before late 2008’s epic stock panic. Central banks are notorious for trying to cloak their actions. So although “quantitative easing” wa...
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| LGMR: Dollar Gold "Decidedly Bullish", Targets $2400 by Mid-2013 as Indian Demand Turns Higher Posted: 05 Oct 2012 01:36 PM PDT London Gold Market Report from Adrian Ash BullionVault Fri 5 Oct, 07:10 EST WHOLESALE U.S. Dollar gold prices slipped 0.4% from new 11-month highs in London trade Friday morning, dipping beneath $1790 per ounce as European stock markets crept higher. Wholesale silver bullion prices eased back below $35.00 per ounce – but also held 1.1% up for the week – as commodities held flat and major-economy government bonds ticked lower. The Euro currency held above $1.30 despite a sharp drop in Germany's industrial orders data. Latest US jobs market data were due just ahead of the start of New York trade, with analysts expecting on average a rise of 113,000 last month from August. "The labour market needs to improve for QE3 to end and, if it does not improve as the Fed wants, other [monetary policy] measures will be introduced," reckons Standard Bank strategist Steven Barrow. "If the third round of quantitative easing leads to further weakness of the US Dollar, [other] central...
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| Sprott's Embry, Agnico's Boyd interviewed at King World News Posted: 05 Oct 2012 01:36 PM PDT 3:35p ET Friday, October 5, 2012 Dear Friend of GATA and Gold: Sprott Asset Management's John Embry today tells King World News that gold buyers have figured out how to play the raids staged by the market manipulators and are buying the dips, knowing that supplies are tight and the trend favors them. Embry adds that he won't get really excited about the gold market until there is a $100 up day. An excerpt from Embry's interview is posted at the King World News blog here: http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2012/10/5_Ph... Also at King World News, Agnico-Eagle Mines CEO Sean Boyd says central bank buying is offsetting weakening gold demand from India. Boyd says central banks will carefully diversify out of paper and into metal, taking pains not to disrupt the markets. An excerpt from Boyd's interview is at the King World News blog here: http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2012/10/5_Ag... CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer ADVERTISEMENT GoldMoney adds Toronto vaulting option In addition to its precious metals storage facilities in Hong Kong, Switzerland, and the United Kingdom, GoldMoney customers now can store their gold and silver in a high-security vault operated by Brink's in Toronto, Ontario, Canada. GoldMoney also has recently partnered with Rhenus Freight Logistics to offer another gold storage option in Switzerland. The Rhenus vault is in the secured zone of Zurich Airport and offers customers superb security as well as the ability to inspect their gold. Storage at the new vaults in Canada and Switzerland is available at GoldMoney's lowest fees. Customers can select their storage location when placing their buy order. GoldMoney customers can take delivery of any number of gold, silver, platinum, and palladium bars from any GoldMoney vault, as well as personally collect their bars stored in the Hong Kong, Switzerland, and U.K. vaults. It's easy to open an account, add funds, and liquidate your investment. For more information, visit: http://www.goldmoney.com/?gmrefcode=gata Join GATA here: New Orleans Investment Conference * * * Support GATA by purchasing DVDs of our London conference in August 2011 or our Dawson City conference in August 2006: http://www.goldrush21.com/order.html Or by purchasing a colorful GATA T-shirt: Or a colorful poster of GATA's full-page ad in The Wall Street Journal on January 31, 2009: http://gata.org/node/wallstreetjournal Help keep GATA going GATA is a civil rights and educational organization based in the United States and tax-exempt under the U.S. Internal Revenue Code. Its e-mail dispatches are free, and you can subscribe at: To contribute to GATA, please visit: ADVERTISEMENT Prophecy Platinum Intercepts Best Pt+Pd+Au Grades Yet Company Press Release VANCOUVER, British Columbia -- Prophecy Platinum Corp. (TSX-V: NKL, OTC-QX: PNIKF, Frankfurt: P94P) announces more results of its 2012 drill program on the company's fully-owned Wellgreen platinum group metals, nickel, and copper project in southwestern Yukon Territory, Canada. Four surface holes and four underground holes all intercepted significant mineralized widths, ranging from 28.5 meters (WS12-201) and up to 459.5 metres (WS12-193). Highlights include WU12-540, which returned 8.9 metres of 5.36 grams per tonne platinum, palladium, and gold; 1.73 percent copper; and 1.01 percent nickel within 304.5 meters of 0.66 g/t platinum-palladium-gold, 0.20 percent copper, and 0.27 percent nickel. The surface drill program started in June and has completed 16 holes (assays pending for 12 holes) with two rigs now on site. The surface program continues to progress at a steady pace. Prophecy Chairman John Lee commented: "Wellgreen is a very large nickel, copper, and platinum group metals project with near-surface high-grade zones. High-grade intercepts will be incorporated into resource modeling and mine planning in the pre-feasibility study. We expect further positive drill results from Wellgreen shortly." Wellgreen features a low 2.59-to-1 strip ratio, is situated at an altitude of 1,300 meters, and is only 15 kilometers from the two-lane paved Alaska Highway. Those factors significantly minimize the project's indirect costs. For the complete company statement with full tabulation of the drilling results, please visit: http://prophecyplat.com/news_2012_sep11_prophecy_platinum_drill_results....
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| COT Gold, Silver and US Dollar Index Report - October 5, 2012 Posted: 05 Oct 2012 01:32 PM PDT COT Gold, Silver and US Dollar Index Report - October 5, 2012
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| GoldMoney Podcast with Robert Wenzel of Economic Policy Journal Posted: 05 Oct 2012 01:26 PM PDT Gold money has just released my podcast with Bob Wenzel of EPJ. Bob is one of the top economic bloggers in the United States and has many interesting things to say. It can be found on GoldMoney’s site, here. 
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| The Opposing Forces Behind Gold's Bull Market Posted: 05 Oct 2012 01:20 PM PDT What accounts for gold's strong performance since the initial rebound in July? That's the question that many analysts are (belatedly) trying to answer. The first and most obvious answer is stimulus; specifically the stimulus provided by ... Read More...
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| The Solar Silver Thrust, Soaring Demand from PV Panels Posted: 05 Oct 2012 01:00 PM PDT Jeff Clark, BIG GOLD : In early July, Japan set a premium price for solar energy that was three times the rate of conventional power. This meant utility companies would be paid three times more for electricity sourced from solar. It's widely expected that the premium will ignite the use of solar power – and solar uses a lot of silver.
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| Embry is right and you can help…Take physical off the market. Posted: 05 Oct 2012 12:47 PM PDT Physical Gold Demand May Now Overwhelm The Manipulators
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| Posted: 05 Oct 2012 12:31 PM PDT Drop in Jobless Rate Sews Optimism, But…
Today's September nonfarm payrolls report was a mixed bag. The headline 114,000 new jobs added was still a very weak number, a far cry from what is really needed. Back-month revisions were more encouraging, but even the 142,000 jobs in August (revised up from 96,000 initially) isn't even close to being reflective of a true labor market recovery. What was encouraging — at least from a headline perspective — was the 0.3% drop in the unemployment rate to 7.8%, the lowest print since January 2009. The household survey, from which the jobless rate is derived, jumped a massive 873,000 jobs. Great news right? Not so fast… It turns out that 582,000 of those new jobs in the household survey (or 2/3rds) were part-time positions, in a category the BLS describes as "persons employed part time for economic reasons". They're also referred to as "involuntary part-time workers," as they would prefer to be employed full-time. Arguably part-time work is better than no work, but the data aren't nearly as rosy as some seem to want to believe: The labor force participation rate remains weak at just 63.3%. These recent levels were last seen in the early-1980s. The participation rate for men specifically is 70%, just off the all-time low of 69.6% set earlier in the year. The U6 number remains at 14.7% un/under-employment, as that series counts "involuntary part-time workers" as underemployed. I'm afraid we'll find that most of the 582,000 part-time jobs gained in September are low paying — and likely fleeting — retail positions. They might prove sticky through the Christmas shopping season, but then again, they might not. Despite the recent negative revisions to GDP, down to 1.3% in Q2 (ouch!) and expectations now running around 1.4% for Q3, consumer sentiment actually rose over the last several months. This resulted in modest gains in retail sales in July and August of 0.6% and 0.9%, respectively. Consumers were spending, but they were primarily utilizing credit. August consumer credit is expected to come out at +$8bln later today, versus -$3.3bln in Jul, although the latter is likely to be revised higher. Consumption is also coming at the expense savings. The personal savings rate dropped to 3.7% in August, down nearly 16% from the recent high of 4.4% in June. This is off significantly from the highs above 6% in the worst days of the financial crisis. Gold retreated on this news. Maybe it was the knee-jerk reaction that has been engrained in recent years: Good data lessens the likelihood of further Fed accommodations. However, the Fed made it very clear in their recent FOMC statement that good news is not going to incite them to back-off on their über-accommodative policy stance. In fact, if one where to interpret today's jobs data as truly optimistic, I would argue it is then a significant inflationary risk; more people working, more people spending. Instead, I think we remain in the same old economic malaise we were in last month, and last year for that matter. This will keep interest rates at negative levels in real terms and precipitate further currency debasement, as the Fed continues its battle against deflationary pressures. But however this all unfolds, gold remains a portfolio stalwart, providing a hedge against all of the "-ations": Inflation. Deflation. Staglation. Hyper-inflation. Whatever comes your way, your gold holdings will serve you well.
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