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- Current Housing Weakness Could Lead To Shortage In The Future
- Mortgage, Housing Update: Little Change
- 10 Cheap Utility Companies With Strong Profitability
- Dollar Store Stocks And A Weak Economy
- Orex Completes First Phase Ground Geophysical Surveys Over The Barsele Gold Project, Sweden
- WATCH: The Elites Philosophy with Alfred Adask
- WATCH: James Turk talks with Trace Mayer
- Gold Prices "Could Rise Just as Far Again"
- Gold up $30
- Are you ready for the annual Christmas Rally in Gold and Silver?
- Gold Gains as Credit Rating Agencies Flag an "Italian Job"
- Three reasons gold is guaranteed to go much higher in the long run
- Catch up
- WATCH: Keiser Report – “Dollar is Trapped”
- All Comods up but......
- WATCH – Mining 101
- China’s Gold Investment to Top Record: "Demand to Pick Up Exponentially"
- China’s Gold Investment to Top Record: Cheng
- Hedge Fund Heavyweight Sees Gold at $2,200
- Is 'conflict gold' a problem worse than imaginary gold?
- Jim Rickards tells King World News what to watch for in currency war
- Dutch Socialist Party puts gold questions to treasury secretary
- ETFs have potential to become the next toxic scandal: Tom Stevenson
- China reported likely to keep buying U.S. debt
- Euro crisis escalating
- Peter Schiff Attempts To School Those Unwilling to Learn
- Trace Mayer, J.D. at GATA Gold Rush 2011
- Headline Fear Hides Gold’s Bullish Money Flows
- The Very Important and of Course Blacklisted BIS Paper About the Crisis
- Is the Eurozone Crisis a British-American Fantasy?
| Current Housing Weakness Could Lead To Shortage In The Future Posted: 20 Sep 2011 06:12 AM PDT By Calafia Beach Pundit: August housing starts were somewhat weaker than expected (571K vs. 590K), but building permits (which point to future housing starts were a bit stronger than expected (620K vs. 590K), so on balance there's no news here. The larger story is told in the charts above. Housing starts have been bouncing along the bottom of their worst nightmare collapse, and this has been going on for over two and a half years. One chapter of the big story is that housing starts have hit bottom; if they were going to go lower, they would have done so by now. The other chapter is that housing starts are going to have to increase by leaps and bounds over the next several years, if only just to catch up to the demands of a growing population. The longer starts remain at current levels, in fact, the higher the probability that we could be Complete Story » |
| Mortgage, Housing Update: Little Change Posted: 20 Sep 2011 06:11 AM PDT By Calafia Beach Pundit: August housing starts were somewhat weaker than expected (571K vs. 590K), but building permits (which point to future housing starts were a bit stronger than expected (620K vs. 590K), so on balance there's no news here. The larger story is told in the charts below. (Click charts to expand)
The longer starts remain at current levels, in fact, the higher the probability Complete Story » |
| 10 Cheap Utility Companies With Strong Profitability Posted: 20 Sep 2011 06:07 AM PDT By Follow My Alpha: Utilities may be boring but that doesn't mean they're out of favor. Given their historic stability they have become a hotter commodity again. That is why we decided to look for some reasonably priced utility companies based off their P/E Ratio. We used the P/E ratio because it's a price-multiple valuation metric that can help indicate which firm's are offering a reasonable "valuation" relative to earnings against peers in the same space. The Net Profit Margin is a profitability metric that shows how much of each dollar earned is converted into profits. Firm's that continue to expand their net margins over time generally see their share price increase. We ran a screen for Utility companies with a P/E Ratio of less than 15. From this narrowed pool we then screened for firm's had a Net Profit Margin (TTM) of at least 10% or higher. The P/E Ratio ranks the list Complete Story » |
| Dollar Store Stocks And A Weak Economy Posted: 20 Sep 2011 05:22 AM PDT By Cabot: By Chloe Lutts One stock that's been popping up in a lot of newsletters recently is Dollar Tree (DLTR), a leading discount retailer. It's not hard to see why; the stock just hit a new 52-week high, at a time when many other stocks are well off their peaks. The story here is simple: Dollar Tree owns and operates 4,101 discount stores with a wide variety of very cheap products, many priced at or around $1. According to an August 18 New York Times article, in the wake of the recession, these super discount stores are gaining newly frugal customers of all incomes. From the article: "While it's true that low-wage earners still make up the core of dollar-store customers (42% earn $30,000 or less), what has turned this sector into a nearly recession-proof corner of the economy is a new customer base. 'What's driving the growth,' says James Russo, Complete Story » |
| Orex Completes First Phase Ground Geophysical Surveys Over The Barsele Gold Project, Sweden Posted: 20 Sep 2011 04:05 AM PDT Orex Minerals Inc. – (REX: TSX-V, ORXIF.PK) ("Orex") is pleased to announce that Finland-based Suomen Malmi Oy (SMOY) and LeBel Geophysics are involved with ground follow-up surveys resultant from the 2,500 line kilometres of airborne geophysical surveying completed in July 2011 at our Barsele Gold Project in Sweden. |
| WATCH: The Elites Philosophy with Alfred Adask Posted: 20 Sep 2011 04:00 AM PDT Infowars talks with constitutionalist Alfred Adask about the Liberty Dollar raid in 2007 and the conviction of its founder, Bernard von NotHaus, who was charged with "making, possessing and selling his own coins" in competition with the private banker cartel, the Federal Reserve. "While these forms of anti-government activities do not involve violence, they are every bit as insidious and represent a clear and present danger to the economic stability of this country," the Justice Department said about the case. ~TVR |
| WATCH: James Turk talks with Trace Mayer Posted: 20 Sep 2011 02:19 AM PDT From GATA Gold Rush 2011: |
| Gold Prices "Could Rise Just as Far Again" Posted: 20 Sep 2011 01:55 AM PDT "Living legend" Lassonde reveals how high he thinks Gold Prices could go... |
| Posted: 20 Sep 2011 01:31 AM PDT Looks like they are allowing gold to rise again. Did an options expiration just pass? |
| Are you ready for the annual Christmas Rally in Gold and Silver? Posted: 20 Sep 2011 01:31 AM PDT I'm very hopeful that history will repeat this year too. :biggrin: Snip: Quote: During 18 of the last 22 years, gold has rallied between US Labor Day and Christmas. Will the pattern this year follow the historical pattern? We will analyze the fundamentals, look at some charts and try to draw a conclusion. The charts in this report are courtesy Stockcharts.com unless indicated. |
| Gold Gains as Credit Rating Agencies Flag an "Italian Job" Posted: 20 Sep 2011 01:26 AM PDT |
| Three reasons gold is guaranteed to go much higher in the long run Posted: 20 Sep 2011 01:21 AM PDT From Frank Holmes of U.S. Global Investors: A few weeks ago, we held our Case for Investing in Gold webcast with the World Gold Council's (WGC) Jason Toussaint, who gave some remarkable insight into gold demand in the East. In these countries, gold is not only celebrated, acquired, worn, or displayed during holidays or special occasions... it is seen as an everyday symbol of wealth. Increases in demand from China and India have driven a 7.5% increase in demand for gold jewelry during the first half of the year, despite a 25% increase in the price, according to a report released this week from GFMS. However, much of India's potential gold demand remains untapped. Toussaint highlighted an interesting fact: Of the roughly 800 tons of gold imported to India each year, only the top 40%... Read full article... More on gold: Why resource guru Sprott is now selling gold Trader alert: Gold and silver are breaking important levels today Unbelievable chart shows gold could double by the end of the year |
| Posted: 20 Sep 2011 12:42 AM PDT Record prices spawn new wave of China gold bugs: "More investors are moving into paper gold because of the lower capital costs. The prospect of making big and quick bucks by betting on gold's ascent is beginning to look like a fairly easy way to make money." Keep this in mind to temper they hype the next time you hear how China is going to be a huge physical market. One could argue that the gambling like nature of Leverage would have more appeal in the East than the West. More than 2.8m tonnes of hidden copper stocks: "...how much copper is being stored 'off market' in private inventories..." Guess what, there is a lot of off market (in that we don't know who and where) gold and silver. At least we know the overall stock figure is circa 160,000t. When you have that much overhang relative to new mine flow, "...sudden and violent liquidation could pose a major threat to market fundamentals..." Of course a sudden and violent flow of dollars into gold could cause the same problem. Another Lawsuit Filed Against JP Morgan For Silver Price Manipulation: I nearly fell off my chair reading this from Zero Hedge - "a lot of the content in the filing is regurgitated filler" and "at time reads like a diary of a conspiracy nutjob, and unfortunately that is how the conflicted legal system will see it". What happened to their usual goldbug ra ra ra? BTW, not much in the 100+ page filing and it wasn't very convincing for me. Dutch Socialist Party puts gold questions to treasury secretary: Note that the Reserve Bank of Australia, in contrast to most central banks, answers these two questions in its past annual reports - "2) Why are gold and gold loans stated as one line item in the annual report 2010 instead of mentioned as two separate items? 3) Can you give an overview of the yearly yields of the gold loans during the past years?" If the RBA can disclose this information, why not the other central banks? Interestingly, the RBA has wound back all of its gold leasing. Would you take counterparty exposure to a bullion bank for 10 or 20 basis points return?  |
| WATCH: Keiser Report – “Dollar is Trapped” Posted: 20 Sep 2011 12:37 AM PDT This week Max Keiser and co-host, Stacy Herbert, discuss Babyface Bernanke, Eurotarp and 'rogue traders.' In the second half of the show Max talks to Bill Still, director of The Money Masters & The Secret of Oz, about Fort Knox, state banks and monetary reform. ~TVR |
| Posted: 19 Sep 2011 11:28 PM PDT As of this morning we have many EU officials saying Greek default wont harm anything. Perfect, let it fail lets see what happens. Futures up, check Oil up, check 99% of commodities up, check The only commodity (silver) thats still in the red - PRICELESS Welcome to the big leagues where you have to run with cinder blocks attached to your feet! We are looking for 200 "I hate Blythe's" today...  |
| Posted: 19 Sep 2011 10:27 PM PDT Greg Johnson, President and C.E.O. of South American Silver, explains the development valuation cycle, and how silver companies gain value throughout the exploration process. This video shows investors that if they are able to identify high quality deposits early in the development cycle, they can make large profits. South American Silver Corp. is a growth focused mineral exploration company creating value through the exploration and development of the Malku Khota silver-indium-gallium project in Bolivia, one of the world's largest undeveloped silver, indium and gallium deposits, and the large-scale Escalones, copper-gold project in Chile.
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| China’s Gold Investment to Top Record: "Demand to Pick Up Exponentially" Posted: 19 Sep 2011 09:26 PM PDT ¤ Yesterday in Gold and SilverThe gold price was off to the races the moment that trading began on Sunday night in New York, but the fun was over in about thirty minutes, as a not-for-profit seller showed up. From there, the price got sold off almost back to Friday's closing price by the time the equity markets opened at 9:30 a.m. Eastern time in New York on Monday morning. And, at precisely that moment, a really serious selling in gold showed up...and, within an hour, the bullion banks had pealed $35 off the price. Gold traded within about ten bucks of that 10:30 a.m. low for the rest of the New York session...with the absolute low coming at 1:15 p.m. Eastern in the New York Access Market. The spot gold priced closed down $34 on the day. Net volume was around 178,000 contracts, which is not overly heavy...but it wasn't exactly light, either. Silver's price path was very similar to gold's on Monday. It was up about a dime at the open...and hung in there pretty good until shortly after London opened at 8:00 a.m. BST. By the time the New York equity markets opened in New York, silver had been sold down about 50 cents from its opening high. Then, like gold, the big selling pressure showed up at 9:30 a.m. Eastern right on the button...and, from there, the price continued to work its way lower until the absolute bottom price of $38.88 spot, which came at 1:15 p.m. in electronic trading...the same as gold. From its absolute high on Sunday night...to its 1:15 p.m. low in New York on Monday afternoon...silver was down about $1.80 spot. But the rally after the low recovered some of those losses...and the silver price 'only' finished down $1.01 on the day. Net volume was decent at around 44,000 contracts. The New York equity markets got bombed at the open...but the gold shares went in the other direction...and were mostly in positive territory until early afternoon in New York...despite the shellacking that the metal itself was taking. Then they got sold off a hair, but the HUI only finished down 0.68% on the day. That's amazing! There are very deep pockets scooping up virtually every gold share that weak hands are selling these days...and, as of tomorrow, this phenomena will have been going on for a full four weeks. Since the silver price was more 'volatile'...a lot of the junior silver companies got hit. But that certainly didn't apply to all the silver stocks...as I had lots of green arrows in my portfolio yesterday, despite the pounding that silver took. That's reflected in Nick Laird's Silver Sentiment Index, which was only down 1.06%...so it's obvious that the smart money knows what's coming. (Click on image to enlarge) The CME's Daily Delivery Report showed that 78 gold and one whole silver contract were posted for delivery tomorrow. Jefferies was the big short/issuer in gold...and, for a change, virtually all of the '8 or less' bullion banks were M.I.A. The link to yesterday's Issuers and Stoppers report is here. There were no reported changes in either GLD or SLV. But the U.S. Mint had a sales report yesterday. They sold 7,500 ounces of gold eagles and 236,500 silver eagles. Month-to-date the mint has sold 32,000 ounces of gold eagles...5,000 one-ounce 24K gold buffaloes...along with 1,279,500 silver eagles. September has been a very slow sales month so far. The Comex-approved depositories reported receiving 303,351 troy ounces of silver...and shipped 395,135 ounces out the door. Virtually all of the 'action'...such as it was...occurred at the JPMorgan warehouse. The link to that action is here. Here's another comment from reader Tariq Khan about bullion sales in his part of England... "Following my last submission late last week, my bullion dealer did get some more Britannias, Maples, Nuggets and Philharmonics this morning, mainly from the secondary market. By this afternoon they have all been sold out. I got some 1 oz Britannias too. These are favourites with UK residents, being legal tender...and attracting CGT in the UK. He does have some gold bars available, but nothing much in silver other than the eagles which he is selling at 20% premium...plus another 20% on top for VAT. You can actually get them cheaper at my other coin dealer but still with a hefty 10% premium." And here's a comment from reader Duane Zelinka in Vancouver, Washington about sales in his area... "I go to my local coin dealer here on a regular (once/twice a week) basis to purchase silver. Every time I have gone in, there has always been a line of people selling. I usually sit back and listen to the conversations and watch the transactions. The consensus of most sellers I see is they don't think prices are going up much further from here. Everyone is eager to sell (in and out, without a blink)." "The store has been amassing a good collection of both gold and silver as I watch. I always ask them when I'm in, 'are you buying or selling more'? It's mostly selling environment they are in. I like this as while the masses are selling, I am buying. It will be interesting to see when that will change here...plenty of metal to be purchased right now." Here's a couple of free paragraph from silver analyst Ted Butler's weekly review to his paying subscribers on Saturday... "In gold, the COT structure has to be considered bullish, just as it was back in early July. That augers well for a rally and against a prolonged liquidation sell-off. But conditions are notably different today in some regards. For one, the technical funds don't appear positioned to plow back onto the long side of COMEX gold futures at current or higher prices, having booked massive profits recently because they obviously felt the price was too high. I could easily see the tech funds buying gold after we go lower in price first down through the moving averages, with these funds then buying as the price reemerges through the averages to the upside. But we would first need a substantial price decline in gold for that to occur. On the other hand, the commercials do appear anxious to withdraw from the short side and after they get as much liquidation as they can manage on price declines, it's hard for me to see where selling pressure then comes." "I don't like to talk out of both sides of my mouth, but nothing would surprise me in gold because what we've seen to date is so unusual in the commercial buying to the upside. COT interpretations are just that – subjective opinions. From what we have experienced over the past few months, it's hard to speak with certainty. I can say with a high degree of conviction that we have suffered a dramatic loss of real liquidity. If big buying comes in on gold, we will fly in price. If big selling comes in, only continued commercial short covering will stem declines. Maybe we get a continuation of the volatile trading pattern within a fairly wide trading range." Here's a link to a really neat interactive graph. I ran one part of it in this column last week, but there was much more to it than was shown in that posting. The graph is headlined "Euro zone bank exposure by country". But, in a word, it's a PIIGS chart. It shows what amounts and percentages of exposure each country in Europe has to the five little PIIGIES. This is definitely worth the trip...and it's posted over at thomsonreuters.com. I thank Washington state reader S.A. for sharing it with us...and the link is here. I got the photo below from reader Andy Lawrisuk, along with the following comments..."Hi Ed, thought you might have use for this gold photo I took on a recent trip to Istanbul. It is of one of the gold shops in the Spice (Egyptian) Bazaar there. The economy (and metals market) is strong in Turkey! I just got back from a trip to India and Singapore - other economies of Asia are also still going strong by the looks of it on the ground. (Click on image to enlarge) The 'click to enlarge' feature is more than worth it for this photo, as it certainly bears closer examination. With what went on over the weekend, I've got lots of stories today...and I'll leave the final edit up to you. Since gold hit its intraday high of around $1,938 on September 6th...the price has fallen about 7.8% as of its close yesterday...but the HUI is only down a hair under 5% from that date. Dutch Socialist Party puts gold questions to treasury secretary. Central banks return as gold buyers. UK gold demand soaring. Venezuelan government will claim all domestic gold production. ¤ Critical ReadsSubscribeStock Fund Withdrawals Top Lehman at $75 BillionInvestors have pulled more money from U.S. equity funds since the end of April than in the five months after the collapse of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc., adding to the $2.1 trillion rout in American stocks. About $75 billion was withdrawn from funds that focus on shares during the past four months, according to data compiled by Bloomberg from the Investment Company Institute, a Washington-based trade group, and EPFR Global, a research firm in Cambridge, Massachusetts. Outflows totaled $72.8 billion from October 2008 through February 2009, following Lehman's bankruptcy, the data show. This Bloomberg story is courtesy of reader Scott Pluschau...and the link is here.  A Greek Orderly Default Impossible: Kyle BassHere's an article from CNBC last week, along with an imbedded video clip of Kyle Bass laying it on the line regarding Greece. He takes no prisoners here...and is, of course, absolutely right. The article is a short read...and the film clip runs just under eleven minutes. I thank reader Richard Vollertsen for sending this along...and the link is here.  Greece's shadow economy raises fresh fearsIn this world, nothing is certain apart from death and taxes – unless, that is, you live in Greece. In a country where tax evasion is a way of life, many consider themselves outside the law when it comes to paying. Figures compiled for The Sunday Telegraph by the world renowned expert Prof Friedrich Schneider of Linz University in Austria show that Greece's shadow economy – made up of the trade, goods and services, both legal and illegal where taxes are not paid – grew from 24.3pc of GDP in 2008 to 25.4pc in 2010. With around half of the country's austerity measures reliant on tax and revenue increases, and a quarter of Greece's economy out of control, many question whether Greece's government will be able to keep its deficit-cutting promises in a country that is already struggling to stay afloat. This amazing article was, as stated above, posted in The Sunday Telegraph...and I thank Roy Stephens for sharing it with us. The link is here.  Greek tax evasion: 'There is just such little incentive to be honest.'With the medical profession at the forefront of the Greek financial crime squad's list of suspects, Alexis, a Greek doctor, keeps his books tight, which is not an easy feat. Daily challenges come in the form of corrupt officials looking for a handout, local suppliers and workers trying to bargain the price of their products or services down in exchange for a lack of paper trail. He also owns personal assets in the form of land and two family homes – which is where the lines start to blur. According to Alexis, declaring items deemed as 'luxuries' by the tax man, such as a car with a higher horse power or a pool can far exceed the cost of buying the items in the first place. This is from the 'You-can't-make-this-stuff-Up' filing cabinet...and is Roy Stephens second offering of the day. It was also posted in The Telegraph on Sunday morning...and the link is here.  Greeks Discuss Drastic Moves to Receive AidGreek leaders struggled through the weekend to agree to a set of radical budget reductions that would satisfy foreign lenders' demands even as they tried to stave off mounting resistance to those cuts at home. Reflecting the urgency of the situation, the prime minister of Greece, George Papandreou, canceled a planned trip to Washington this week and held talks with his cabinet on Sunday. The Greeks face an October deadline to qualify for 8 billion euros, or $11 billion, in aid, without which Greece will certainly default on its growing debt. Over the weekend, European finance ministers issued stern warnings at a meeting in Poland that failure to meet financial targets would imperil the release of the payment. This story from the Sunday edition of The New York Times was filed from Frankfurt...and is Roy Stephens third offering of the day. The link is here. |
| China’s Gold Investment to Top Record: Cheng Posted: 19 Sep 2011 09:26 PM PDT  Gold investment demand in China is likely to top a record 200 metric tons this year, the World Gold Council said. The country's investment demand surged 70 percent in 2010 to an all-time high of 187 tons, said Albert Cheng, the Far East managing director at the World Gold Council. China's "investment demand has picked up exponentially," Cheng said yesterday in an interview in Montreal. "The financial crisis has triggered people to be cautious of anything they don't understand," boosting demand for bullion as an alternative asset. India is the world's top bullion buyer followed by China. The two countries accounted for 54 percent of world gold consumption in the second quarter, Cheng said. |
| Hedge Fund Heavyweight Sees Gold at $2,200 Posted: 19 Sep 2011 09:26 PM PDT  Gold, platinum and Brent oil will lead gains in commodities as investors seek to protect their assets and shortages emerge, according to Tony Hall, the hedge- fund manager who earned 33 percent for his clients this year. Gold may climb 21 percent to a record $2,200 an ounce by the end of 2011, platinum may gain 10 percent and Brent could rise 25 percent to $140 a barrel in six months, said the London-based chief investment officer of Duet Commodities Fund Ltd. This Bloomberg story from yesterday was sent to me by West Virginia reader Elliot Simon yesterday...and the link is here. |
| Is 'conflict gold' a problem worse than imaginary gold? Posted: 19 Sep 2011 09:26 PM PDT  Here's a Reuters story posted from Montreal that bears the headline "Conflict Gold Guidelines 'No. 1 Priority' for LBMA". The London Bullion Market Association is working out ways for refiners on its Good Delivery List to avoid falling foul of new regulations against conflict gold as a "No. 1 priority," LBMA chairman David Gornall told Reuters on Sunday. Due diligence requirements for gold sourced from the war-torn Democratic Republic of Congo are currently under consideration by both the United States and the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. |
| Jim Rickards tells King World News what to watch for in currency war Posted: 19 Sep 2011 09:26 PM PDT  Here's another GATA release with two separate KWN blogs in it. The first is from Jim Rickards, as mentioned in the headline...and the second is from fund manager Michael Pento about the revised class-action lawsuit against JPMorgan in silver. Both are very much worth the read...and both are linked here. |
| Dutch Socialist Party puts gold questions to treasury secretary Posted: 19 Sep 2011 09:26 PM PDT  The Netherlands libertarian blog Vrijspreker reported Sunday that the Dutch Socialist Party, with 15 seats in the Netherlands Parliament, has put to the country's treasury secretary 10 impertinent questions about gold along the lines of the questions GATA has sought to put to Western central banks. The list of questions, along with the link to the article, is contained in this GATA release...and the link to all is here. |
| ETFs have potential to become the next toxic scandal: Tom Stevenson Posted: 19 Sep 2011 09:26 PM PDT  Who says regulators are only good for slamming the barn door after the horse has bolted? Back in April, the Financial Stability Board (FSB), an international super-regulator, wrote a prescient if less than catchily-titled paper "Potential financial stability issues arising from recent trends in Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs)." Its central warning -- that ETFs are not the cheap and transparent vehicles the marketers would have us believe -- was spot on. When UBS's $2 billion black hole hit the screens on Thursday, no one who read the FSB report was surprised to see the words "ETF" and "rogue trader" in the same sentence. Gold and silver ETF investors should note the reference here to the use of exchange-traded funds to short their own markets. |
| China reported likely to keep buying U.S. debt Posted: 19 Sep 2011 09:26 PM PDT  China, the largest foreign holder of U.S. government debt, will keep buying U.S. Treasuries, the official People's Daily, the ruling Communist Party's mouthpiece, reported on Tuesday, citing government researchers. In an article about the reasons for China's increased purchase of U.S. Treasuries, the newspaper cited Yan Xiaona, a researcher with the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, as saying that the dollar "is relatively safer than the euro" because of the unfolding sovereign debt crisis in Europe. This Reuters story was filed from Beijing late on Monday night their time...and I found it in a GATA release. The link is here. |
| Posted: 19 Sep 2011 09:15 PM PDT Panic selling from hedge funds in response to the European debt crisis forced the gold price to a three-week low yesterday, as well as pushing the silver price back below $40. The Comex September gold ...  |
| Peter Schiff Attempts To School Those Unwilling to Learn Posted: 19 Sep 2011 09:06 PM PDT So simple an explanation even a Caveman could understand it. Now, if only we could get politicians educated to the Caveman level. Likely Related Posts The Inevitability of Economic Collapse Term Limits Most Citizens Would Love Financial Trojan Horses The Crooks in Washington Attack Big Oil Why Government Won't Solve This Problem Where are the [...] |
| Trace Mayer, J.D. at GATA Gold Rush 2011 Posted: 19 Sep 2011 08:00 PM PDT Trace Mayer, of runtogold.com, talks to the GoldMoney Foundation about the reasons to buy gold.He explains how he became interested in gold through monetary history; he talks about Dr. Vieira's ...  |
| Headline Fear Hides Gold’s Bullish Money Flows Posted: 19 Sep 2011 07:47 PM PDT
Connected interests (commercial traders) have not only covered their short position but also increased their long positions dramatically since early August. Commercial traders' longs positions as a percentage of open interest has increases from 29.8% to 35.2% over the past six weeks. This trend and reading, second highest of 2011, set a bullish tone for gold despite growing fears induced by the recent technical consolidation. Commerical traders' highest long allocation for 2011 has been 35.5%. This reading, registered on 5/17 when gold was trading at $1478.50, preceded a sharp rally. It's also important to note that the level of short-side participation is much smaller today than 5/17. In other words, today's bullish setup has the potential to be far-more explosive. Gold London P.M Fixed and the Commercial Traders COT Futures and Options ZScore Weighted Average of Long & Short As A % of Open Interest Source: http://edegrootinsights.blogspot.com/2011/09/headline-fear-hides-golds-bullish-money.html
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| The Very Important and of Course Blacklisted BIS Paper About the Crisis Posted: 19 Sep 2011 06:43 PM PDT Admittedly, my RSS reader is hardly a definitive check, but it does cover a pretty large number of financial and economics websites, including those of academics. And from what I can tell, an extremely important paper by Claudio Borio and Piti Disyatat of the BIS, "Global imbalances and the financial crisis: Link or no link?" has been relegated to the netherworld. The Economist's blog (not the magazine) mentioned it in passing, and a VoxEU post on the article then led the WSJ economics blog to take notice. But from the major economics blogs and publications, silence. Why would that be? One might surmise that this is a case of censorship. Borio has been a long-standing critic of the Greenspan and later Bernanke thesis that central banks should ignore asset and credit bubbles if prices are stable. He and William White went public (as public as you can go in the BIS) in 2003 with their contention that an international housing bubble was underway and action was warranted. Greenspan and virtually all other right-thinking economists ignored the bubble and other signs of trouble (like a sustained near zero consumer savings rate in the US) and drank the Great Moderation Kool-Aid instead. Despite the overwhelming evidence of their colossal pre-crisis screw-up, most academic economists are unwilling to admit much if any error. And they are generally respectful towards Bernanke (the fact that the Fed is the biggest single source of funding for academic research no doubt contributes to the deference shown to the central bank). The paper is important for a second reason: it seeks to address the limited and imprecise thinking about the relationship between the financial markets and the real economy. I cover some of this ground in ECONNED. The shortcomings of prevailing macro models include: an equilibrium assumption (by contrast, financial markets, which impact the real economy, have no propensity to equilibrium), no role for credit, banks, or even money (except sometimes in error terms). In addition to its heretical views, another reason the Borio/Disyatatp aper has gotten less attention than it warrants is that it is written densely and defensively, perhaps a response to the way the clear and well documented White/Borio papers on the housing bubble were dismissed as having no theoretical foundation. I read it early in the summer, and have dragged my feet in posting on it because it would be difficult to do it justice in a single piece. It should have occurred to me sooner to write about it over two or three posts. However, I may simply not have been up to the task of making it accessible. Our Andrew Dittmer (a Harvard Phd in mathematics who among other things, has taught group theory to seventh graders) has converted the paper into Layspeak:
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| Is the Eurozone Crisis a British-American Fantasy? Posted: 19 Sep 2011 04:44 PM PDT Dollar Collapse |
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