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Saturday, September 17, 2011

Gold World News Flash

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Gold World News Flash


Updated silver lawsuit IDs Morgan trading mechanisms, traders, 'spoof' trades

Posted: 16 Sep 2011 04:31 PM PDT

1:33p ET Friday, September 16, 2011

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold (and Silver):

An updated complaint in the class-action lawsuit against JPMorganChase alleging manipulation of the silver futures market, filed this week in U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York, details the mechanisms of the manipulation and some of the traders executing it.

According to the updated complaint:

-- MorganChase already had a large short position in silver when it acquired another large short position upon the investment house's acquisition of the failed New York brokerage Bear Stearns in 2008. This, the complaint says, gave MorganChase hugely disproportionate influence in the silver market.

-- MorganChase used "fake" and "spoof" trades to manipulate prices downward, particularly in advance of contract expiration dates, when MorganChase held put options, which became more valuable as the price of silver was driven down.

-- MorganChase reduced its short position following the May 25, 2010, hearing of the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission, in which complaints of gold and silver market manipulation figured heavily. (GATA Chairman Bill Murphy and board member Adrian Douglas testified at that hearing and presented a statement by a London silver futures trader, Andrew Maguire, detailing market manipulation he had witnessed.)

-- MorganChase regularly engaged in uneconomic trading activity in silver whose only purpose was price manipulation.

-- The CFTC received a detailed complaint about silver market manipulation from a "whistleblower" (this is presumably Maguire).

--Market circumstances during the period of manipulation alleged by the lawsuit were much different from the circumstances previously investigated by the CFTC when it concluded that there had been no manipulation.

While these are all only allegations, the silver price manipulation case against MorganChase is now extensively detailed with names of participants, specific actions and their dates, and identities of participants. Market experts no doubt will find much more of signifance in the consolidated complaint.

King World News has just published a summary of the consolidated complaint here:

http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2011/9/16_Id...

The full complaint can be found at GATA's Internet site here:

http://www.gata.org/files/ConsolidatedSilverClassActionComplaint-09-12-2...

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.



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Prophecy Platinum Drills 49.5 Meters Grading 1.27 g/t PGM+Au at Yukon Wellgreen Project

Company Press Release
August 22, 2011

Prophecy Platinum Corp. (TSX-V: NKL, OTC-QX: PNIKF, Frankfurt: P94P) announces results from its 2011 drilling program for its first completed hole on the Wellgreen Project in the Yukon Territory, Canada.

Borehole WS11-184 encountered 472.6 meters of mineralization grading 0.43% nickel equivalent from surface to the footwall contact. Within this larger swath of mineralization the hole encountered 49.5 meters of 1.27 grams per ton platinum group metals plus gold, 0.71% nickel, and 0.45% copper (or 1.11% nickel equivalent).

The geology transitioned from blebby disseminated to net-textured to massive sulphide approaching the footwall contact grading 6.3% nickel, 1.7% copper, 2.7 grams per ton platinum, 1.6 grams per ton palladium, 0.17 grams per ton gold, and 3.4 grams per ton silver. The drilling zones and results are tabulated here, with more information:

http://www.prophecyplat.com/news_2011_aug22_prophecy_platinum_wellgreen_...



Join GATA here:

The Silver Summit
Thursday-Friday, October 20-21, 2011
Davenport Hotel, Spokane, Washington

http://cambridgehouse.com/conference-details/the-silver-summit-2011/48

New Orleans Investment Conference
Wednesday-Saturday, October 26-29, 2011
Hilton New Orelans Riverside Hotel

http://www.neworleansconference.com/

Support GATA by purchasing gold and silver commemorative coins:

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Or by purchasing a colorful GATA T-shirt:

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Or a colorful poster of GATA's full-page ad in The Wall Street Journal on January 31, 2009:

http://gata.org/node/wallstreetjournal

Or a video disc of GATA's 2005 Gold Rush 21 conference in the Yukon:

http://www.goldrush21.com/

Help keep GATA going

GATA is a civil rights and educational organization based in the United States and tax-exempt under the U.S. Internal Revenue Code. Its e-mail dispatches are free, and you can subscribe at:

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To contribute to GATA, please visit:

http://www.gata.org/node/16



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Northaven Resources Corp. (TSX-V:NTV) is advancing five gold and silver projects in highly prospective and politically stable British Columbia, Canada.

Check out the exploration program on our Allco gold/silver project :

-- A large (13,000 hectare) property, covering more than 15 square kilometers of a regional mineralized trend just 3km from a recently announced 1.2-million-ounce gold and 15-million-ounce silver deposit.

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Gold Seeker Weekly Wrap-Up: Gold and Silver Fall a Little Over 2% on the Week

Posted: 16 Sep 2011 04:00 PM PDT

Gold fell almost 1% to as low as $1762.30 in Asia, but it then rallied back higher throughout most of trade in London and New York and ended near its late session high of $1821.44 with a gain of 1.86%. Silver surged to as high as $40.892 and ended with a gain of 3.02%.


By the Numbers, Week Ending September 16

Posted: 16 Sep 2011 03:16 PM PDT

Just below is this week's closing table, followed by the CFTC disaggregated commitments of traders (DCOT) recap table for the week ending September 16, 2011.

20110916table 
 
If the images are too small click on them for a larger version.

Continued…


Comments:  Gold and silver correcting.  Gold and silver down for the week in all fiat currencies, but gold down more in Euro than in USD. Positive money flow into gold and silver ETFs suggests modest dip buying. Big Sellers of futures took advantage of weakness to cover or offset some shorts, but not a huge amount.  Mining shares, big and small, answer gold and silver lower, but do not oversell.  US dollar correcting after the CHF surprise the previous week. ICE commercial traders jump all over the short side of the greenback, adding a whopping 15,042 contracts on the short side of the dollar.  Ted Spread higher and reflects heightened bank to bank worry, a troubling sign for world equity markets. Lower highs and lows for gold, but mid-range closes for both suggests indecision.  Hi-lo spreads contract on the selloff, suggesting less than robust selling pressure.  Falling open interest on the gold selloff suggests liquidation is underway, but Big Sellers willing to cover shorts rather than press them.

      
Vultures, (Got Gold Report Subscribers) please note completely new chart links for all of  the Vulture Bargain Candidates of Interest  (VBCIs) and Vulture Bargain (VB) stocks.  The new charts are available now on the subscriber pages along with all our technical charts for gold, silver, mining share indexes and our most important ratios.  Updates to the linked technical charts should be done by the usual time, (18:00 ET) on Sunday.

  
Gold and Silver Disaggregated COT Report (DCOT)


In the DCOT table below a net short position shows as a negative figure in red. A net long position shows in black. In the Change column, a negative number indicates either an increase to an existing net short position or a reduction of a net long position. A black figure in the Change column indicates an increase to an existing long position or a reduction of an existing net short position. The way to think of it is that black figures in the Change column are traders getting "longer" and red figures are traders getting less long or shorter.

All of the trader's positions are calculated net of spreading contracts as of the Tuesday disaggregated COT report.

20110916DCOT 

(DCOT Table for September 16, data as of September 13. Source CFTC for COT data, Cash Market for gold and silver.) 


Bill Ackman's HKD Revaluation Trade As Predicted By Deutsche Bank In 2010... And Why DB Thinks It Is Wrong

Posted: 16 Sep 2011 02:46 PM PDT

Following recent disclosure that Bill Ackman's latest so-called 'slam dunk' idea is a bet on a revaluation of the Hong Kong dollar (as described here), it is interesting to see what someone like Deustche Bank's Mirza Baig thought precisely about the trade that Ackman is proposing as some unique concept (in 151 pages no less) as long ago as November 2010. To wit: "Public complaints against inflation are already loud, and may intensify if the reflationary tide swells further. This could turn up the heat on the authorities. Since 1983 when the current regime was adopted, Hong Kong has experienced CPI inflation as high as 12% and deflation as low as -6%. The current inflation rate of roughly 3% looks benign in this context. In 2008 when inflation crossed 5%, the public debate on monetary policy became more intense, but Hong Kong ultimately braced the peg. In short, we feel the situation will have to become far more extreme, and other policy tools prove ineffective before authorities capitulate and allow a revaluation of HKD. At present, the probability of this scenario is low, in our view. This is why we noted earlier that we expect the reval trade to attract more interest from offshore investors, and possibly reach blow-out levels by the middle of [2011]." And after highlighting the Ackman's trade from 10 months later, DB concludes that "[t]he more likely scenario is that Hong Kong will attempt to ride out the reflation tide with its current policy. The public would gradually move to using RMB for payments, and the HKD would fall into relative disuse. Once China's capital account is sufficiently open (5-10 years later), Hong Kong would endorse the shift towards China through a formal peg vs. RMB at the then prevailing exchange rate  (i.e. without any revaluation)."

As for the merit of the actual trade, Ackman's point is that Asian, and specifically Hong Kong inflation will simply get out of control. Yet in that same case, is a simple bet on gold not more profitable? After all, when it comes to politically regulated markets, empirical evidence demonstrates that centrally planned monetary regimes will do everything but what is most logical (especially when it is far easier to simply intervene in the market at first: something the SNB demonstrated so well in the past year). How long have people been calling for China to reval the CNY? How has that worked out so far?

So while the Ackman trade will indeed be profitable in a very low probability binary outcome case, what will likely be just as profitable is a bet on that ultimate non-dilutable currency, whose primary driver incidentally are all those Hong Kong investors who are buying the yellow metal specifically due to the abovementioned concerns.

Ackman is suggesting that the market is mispricing the possibility of a revaluation. Well, what if the market is pricing the probabilities perfectly and instead has focused on capturing the central-planning inflation threat uncertainty by going long non-dilutable monetary equivalents which the government is unable to peg?

Which is not to say we think that Ackman is wrong: the truth is nobody can predict what Hong Kong authorities will decide to do. However, what is certain is that Deutsche Bank has been correct in its prediction of not only what will happen to the Hong Kong economy (and its currency), but also in anticipating the advent of the Ackman trade. It also suggests that the final outcome is very much a different one:

The more likely scenario is that Hong Kong will attempt to ride out the reflation tide with its current policy. The public would gradually move to using RMB for payments, and the HKD would fall into relative disuse. Once China's capital account is sufficiently open (5-10 years later), Hong Kong would endorse the shift towards China through a formal peg vs. RMB at the then prevailing exchange rate  (i.e. without any revaluation).

 

There remains a risk that authorities are forced to act if the reflationary tide swells beyond control. We thus suggest positioning for higher HKD interest rates and a stronger currency via low-delta options. Specifically, we would be buyers of 1Y USD/HKD put with a strike at 7.40 for roughly 35bps, and pay rates via 2Y1Y swaptions. Note that recently swaption vols have come off, despite increased speculation on HKD regime shift. It seems the market believes in a currency revaluation, but has not considered that a regime shift will translate into higher interest rates as well.

 

Finally, we would strongly advise against fading the recent uptick in speculative pressure. We think Hong Kong's reflationary tide is likely to swell further, and market speculation on a HKD revaluation will probably intensify. Trying to fight this trend (even with the right view on policy) risks incurring mark-to-market losses

Full Deutsche Bank presentation:

 


Bill Ackman's HKD Revaluation Trade As Predicted By Deutsche Bank In 2010... And Why DB Thinks It Is Wrong

Posted: 16 Sep 2011 02:46 PM PDT


Following recent disclosure that Bill Ackman's latest so-called 'slam dunk' idea is a bet on a revaluation of the Hong Kong dollar (as described here), it is interesting to see what someone like Deustche Bank's Mirza Baig thought precisely about the trade that Ackman is proposing as some unique concept (in 151 pages no less) as long ago as November 2010. To wit: "Public complaints against inflation are already loud, and may intensify if the reflationary tide swells further. This could turn up the heat on the authorities. Since 1983 when the current regime was adopted, Hong Kong has experienced CPI inflation as high as 12% and deflation as low as -6%. The current inflation rate of roughly 3% looks benign in this context. In 2008 when inflation crossed 5%, the public debate on monetary policy became more intense, but Hong Kong ultimately braced the peg. In short, we feel the situation will have to become far more extreme, and other policy tools prove ineffective before authorities capitulate and allow a revaluation of HKD. At present, the probability of this scenario is low, in our view. This is why we noted earlier that we expect the reval trade to attract more interest from offshore investors, and possibly reach blow-out levels by the middle of [2011]." And after highlighting the Ackman's trade from 10 months later, DB concludes that "[t]he more likely scenario is that Hong Kong will attempt to ride out the reflation tide with its current policy. The public would gradually move to using RMB for payments, and the HKD would fall into relative disuse. Once China's capital account is sufficiently open (5-10 years later), Hong Kong would endorse the shift towards China through a formal peg vs. RMB at the then prevailing exchange rate  (i.e. without any revaluation)."

As for the merit of the actual trade, Ackman's point is that Asian, and specifically Hong Kong inflation will simply get out of control. Yet in that same case, is a simple bet on gold not more profitable? After all, when it comes to politically regulated markets, empirical evidence demonstrates that centrally planned monetary regimes will do everything but what is most logical (especially when it is far easier to simply intervene in the market at first: something the SNB demonstrated so well in the past year). How long have people been calling for China to reval the CNY? How has that worked out so far?

So while the Ackman trade will indeed be profitable in a very low probability binary outcome case, what will likely be just as profitable is a bet on that ultimate non-dilutable currency, whose primary driver incidentally are all those Hong Kong investors who are buying the yellow metal specifically due to the abovementioned concerns.

Ackman is suggesting that the market is mispricing the possibility of a revaluation. Well, what if the market is pricing the probabilities perfectly and instead has focused on capturing the central-planning inflation threat uncertainty by going long non-dilutable monetary equivalents which the government is unable to peg?

Which is not to say we think that Ackman is wrong: the truth is nobody can predict what Hong Kong authorities will decide to do. However, what is certain is that Deutsche Bank has been correct in its prediction of not only what will happen to the Hong Kong economy (and its currency), but also in anticipating the advent of the Ackman trade. It also suggests that the final outcome is very much a different one:

The more likely scenario is that Hong Kong will attempt to ride out the reflation tide with its current policy. The public would gradually move to using RMB for payments, and the HKD would fall into relative disuse. Once China's capital account is sufficiently open (5-10 years later), Hong Kong would endorse the shift towards China through a formal peg vs. RMB at the then prevailing exchange rate  (i.e. without any revaluation).

 

There remains a risk that authorities are forced to act if the reflationary tide swells beyond control. We thus suggest positioning for higher HKD interest rates and a stronger currency via low-delta options. Specifically, we would be buyers of 1Y USD/HKD put with a strike at 7.40 for roughly 35bps, and pay rates via 2Y1Y swaptions. Note that recently swaption vols have come off, despite increased speculation on HKD regime shift. It seems the market believes in a currency revaluation, but has not considered that a regime shift will translate into higher interest rates as well.

 

Finally, we would strongly advise against fading the recent uptick in speculative pressure. We think Hong Kong's reflationary tide is likely to swell further, and market speculation on a HKD revaluation will probably intensify. Trying to fight this trend (even with the right view on policy) risks incurring mark-to-market losses

Full Deutsche Bank presentation:

 


Donald Trump Takes 3 Kilos of Gold as Office Space Security Deposit

Posted: 16 Sep 2011 01:40 PM PDT


Bloomberg Warns of Riots: “The Public Knows There’s Something Wrong In This Country” *Audio Interview*

Posted: 16 Sep 2011 01:40 PM PDT

by Mac Slavo, SHTFPlan.com:

Very few Americans have ever thought about the prospect of an economic depression or collapse so severe that it could result in riots like those we've seen in the middle east and Europe over the last year.

But while most of our countrymen have had their heads in the sand, alternative news media has been warning about the possibility of civil unrest, riots, violence and even martial law if the economy continues on its unabating downward trajectory.

It seems that the realities of what we face are starting to reach the mainstream, as Mayor Bloomberg of New York recently noted on WOR Newstalk 710:

Read More @ SHTFPlan.com


Updated Silver Lawsuit Identifies Morgan Trading Mechanisms, Traders, “Spoof” and “Fake” Trades

Posted: 16 Sep 2011 01:37 PM PDT

by Chris Powell, Secretary/Treasurer, GATA:

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold (and Silver):

An updated complaint in the class-action lawsuit against JPMorganChase alleging manipulation of the silver futures market, filed this week in U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York, details the mechanisms of the manipulation and some of the traders executing it.

According to the updated complaint:

– MorganChase already had a large short position in silver when it acquired another large short position upon the investment house's acquisition of the failed New York brokerage Bear Stearns in 2008. This, the complaint says, gave MorganChase hugely disproportionate influence in the silver market.

– MorganChase used "fake" and "spoof" trades to manipulate prices downward, particularly in advance of contract expiration dates, when MorganChase held put options, which became more valuable as the price of silver was driven down.

Read More @ SilverSeek.com


What a Major Banking Crisis Would Do To the Gold Price

Posted: 16 Sep 2011 01:00 PM PDT

With the downgrade of Societe General and Credit Agricole, two of the largest French banks, because of their Greek debt holdings, it is certain that any default by Greece (which still looks more than likely) will trigger major banking crises. Moody's lowered Credit Agricole to Aa2 from Aa1 because of its Greek holdings, and will continue to review the impact of funding markets on the rating. Societe Generale was reduced to Aa3 from Aa2, with a negative outlook, as Moody's re-evaluated its level of state support.


Run to Safety

Posted: 16 Sep 2011 12:58 PM PDT

by Mary Anne & Pamela Aden:

Gold just doesn't let up in its ongoing super rise as record highs have been commonplace this past month. It's already soared over 33% this year, which makes it almost the best year so far in the bull market!

Gold shares and silver are following, and many gold shares have also reached new highs.

Uncertainty and fear kicked up several notches this month, which caused a run to safety, and gold and bonds were the favorites. It's interesting that we're seeing both traditional inflation and a deflation indicator rising together as safe havens.

Gold Demand Strong

Gold continues to be bought by governments. Venezuela and Bolivia were upfront this month. Hugo Chavez is taking his gold out of London and the U.S. and sending it home, as he nationalizes mines.

Mexico, Russia, Thailand and South Korea have been major buyers this year.

Read More @ SilverBearCafe.com


Why the Gold Price is So High?

Posted: 16 Sep 2011 12:41 PM PDT

by Mises, MarketOracle.co.uk:

Ever since Ben Bernanke began flooding the banking system with trillions of new dollars in the fall of 2008, economists and other pundits have disagreed on whether the US is in store for a grinding deflation or an accelerating inflation. Part of the disagreement stems from some people using the terms to refer to prices, whereas others refer to changes in the total quantity of money and credit.

However, even if we restrict ourselves to movements in the prices that average households face in the marketplace, there is still widespread disagreement. Although the overlap isn't perfect, typically the Keynesians warn that with high unemployment, the US runs the risk of a Japanese "lost decade" of flat consumer prices and stagnant economic growth. Many Austrians, in contrast, warn of a different decade: namely the United States during the 1970s, when Americans suffered high unemployment and price inflation.

To bolster their position, the Keynesians confidently point at the low yields on various government bonds, signaling that "the market" expects modest price increases over the coming years. In contrast, soaring gold and silver prices have been the trump cards for those Austrians predicting skyrocketing prices in general.

Read More @ MarketOracle.co.uk


Once Apon a Time

Posted: 16 Sep 2011 12:33 PM PDT

from FOFOA:

The story I am about to relate to you was first told in a lecture hall at the School of Political Sciences in Paris (L'École des Sciences Politiques) on March 17, 1932, from the depths of the Great Depression. It is, perhaps, more relevant today than it was on the day Jacques Rueff delivered it. Rueff began with this:

"The story I am going to relate covers a long period. It is the life story of the gold standard, now afflicted with so grave an ailment that only time will tell if the victim will succumb or be left, at the very least, in a state of virtual paralysis." [1]

He said "only time will tell"… well, some time has passed, and it did "tell".

So what grave ailment was he talking about in 1932? What did time reveal since then? And how has this important story been misread over the years? I will try to answer these questions and to retell Rueff's story the way I think it should be told today. And my hope is that this will, in your mind, bring together many dissonant concepts, as it did in mine, into a grand, unified, long-line view of Freegold.

Read More @ FOFOA.Blogspot.com


Gold Price Closed Today at 1,812.10

Posted: 16 Sep 2011 12:21 PM PDT

Gold Price Close Today : 1,812.10
Gold Price Close 09-Sep : 1,856.40
Change : -44.30 or -2.4%

Silver Price Close Today : 40.78
Silver Price Close 09-Sep : 41.57
Change : -0.79 or -1.9%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1,813.90
Platinum Price Close 09-Sep : 1,837.90
Change : -24.00 or -1.3%

Palladium Price Close Today : 731.20
Palladium Price Close 09-Sep : 737.10
Change : -5.90 or -0.8%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 44.44
Gold Silver Ratio 09-Sep : 44.66
Change : -0.22 or 1.00%

Dow Industrial : 11,509.09
Dow Industrial 09-Sep: 11,295.81
Change : 213.28 or 1.9%

US Dollar Index : 76.24
US Dollar Index 09-Sep : 76.23
Change : 0.01 or 0.0%


Important Note: Franklin Sanders is on vacation until the 19th of September. Franklin's parting commentary can be viewed here : http://silver-and-gold-prices.goldprice.org/2011/09/gold-and-silver-prices-today-proved.html


Names of JP Morgan Silver Manipulators Are Disclosed

Posted: 16 Sep 2011 11:37 AM PDT

By Lonerangersilver The manipulation of silver prices in the New York COMEX by JP Morgan have gone on too long and in huge amounts. Let's be clear about it, it is fraud and it is against the law. The CFTC and the SEC who are charged with overseeing the trading at the COMEX just sit [...]


This posting includes an audio/video/photo media file: Download Now

Ian Campbell?s Commentary: More on Gold!

Posted: 16 Sep 2011 11:00 AM PDT

I read an article yesterday about the price of physical gold…that I think is worth bringing to your attention [not only because of what was*conveyed but who was the source of the comments made and the great credibility of those comments given his] immediate access… to people he knows in high-level positions [and]*can, and no doubt does, interact and share views with on a daily basis.*[Let me explain more fully.] Words: 840 So*offers Ian R. Campbell, FCA, FCBV (stockresearchportal.com/) in Today's Economic & Resource Stocks Commentary* which Lorimer Wilson, editor of www.munKNEE.com (Your Key to Making Money!), has further edited ([* ]), abridged (…) and*reformatted*below**for the sake of clarity and brevity to ensure a fast and easy read. The author's views and conclusions are unaltered and no personal comments have been included so as to maintain the integrity of the original article. Please note that this paragraph must be included in any article re-posting to avoid copy...


Northern Gold Mining Inc. Announces Completion of $10,870,471 Non-Brokered Private Placement

Posted: 16 Sep 2011 09:10 AM PDT

Northern Gold Mining ("Northern Gold" or the "Company") (TSX VENTURE:NGM, NTGMF.PK) is pleased to announce that it has completed a non-brokered private placement for aggregate gross proceeds of $10,870,471 subject to regulatory approval (the "Offering").


Operation: World Bailout

Posted: 16 Sep 2011 09:02 AM PDT

Synopsis: 

It appears that a true mission impossible is under way – one to bail out the world by essentially shuffling fiat paper around and around. David Galland elaborates and offers some advice for getting through this currency version of "Old Maid."

Dear Reader,

As I'm getting something of a late start this morning, I'm juicing up on an extra dose of espresso and by listening to Busy Bein' Born by Middle Class Rut. While the song's powerful beat syncs up with my penchant for the dramatic, unless you like seriously hard rock (and don't mind some hard language), do yourself a favor and give it a pass… it's a head banger, no question.


The Operation to Bail Out the World

Two days ago in New York, US Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner uttered the words, "There is no chance that the major countries of Europe will let their institutions be at risk in the eyes of the market."

He then went on to relate that Germany's increasingly beleaguered Angela Merkel has committed, along with the other strong eurozone countries (read: Germany), to do whatever it takes to assure that they were "not going to have a Lehman Brothers."

Translated from bureaucratese, what the Sec. Treasury was telling us in the first instance was not that the European banks are at risk of failing – they clearly are – but rather that the eurozone governments will do whatever it takes to mask that stark reality from "the market."

As to assessing the scale of the risk, there is an excellent interactive graphic available from ThomsonReuters. On the right side of the page are buttons that, when clicked, display the debt of each of the PIIGS, and who is holding that debt.

(Click on image to enlarge)

I found the second part of Geithner's comments even more interesting. As all good Keynesians now agree that Lehman should have never been allowed to fail – which is to say, the government should have whipped out whatever number of additional dollars were necessary to bail the bank out – it appears that a line in the European dirt has been drawn.

Namely, it is that the Sec. Treasury, Merkel, and leaders from the other eurozone countries are determined to not allow Greece or the other not-so-little PIIGS to default.

What a relief, to hear Geithner and Merkel be so confident that such a bailout can be organized and made to stick. I mean, when individuals of this caliber state things as if a fait accompli, how can we not believe them?

(Well, there was that time that Geithner emphatically stressed that the US government could never lose its AAA rating. But hey, nobody's perfect.)

Allowing for just a smidgen of skepticism, we have to pause if only momentarily to reflect on what has to happen in order to honor the PIIGS pledge or, put another way, just how such an operation to save the world might proceed.

For instance, to avoid default, interest rates on Greek debt (as well as on the other PIIGS) must return to levels that the country's recalcitrant government will actually be able to keep up with.

Historically, yields on the debt issued by a reasonably stable country would be somewhere below 5%. At that level, the cost of servicing such debt is considered manageable. Unfortunately – as you can see in the chart of interest rates on two-year Greek government paper – at better than 50%, Greek rates are somewhat more elevated than that.

On viewing that very same chart, our own Bud Conrad commented:

Soaring interest rates on two-year Greek debt clearly indicate there is no confidence in the Greek government, or in the ability of the stronger countries of the eurozone to fix the situation there, and so the debt has moved into the category of being destructive. The big drop from 75% to 50% from the positive statements from the three big government institutions on Thursday gave a big boost to the equity markets in Europe that followed through to the US. Greece is over the cliff, but it is unlikely to last.

Meanwhile, interest rates on one-year Greek government debt are even worse at 108%, but down from 145%:

Looking at the soaring cost of Greek credit default swaps (CDS), we see that the market is now rating the probability of a default by Greece at 98%:

David again.

And it's not just the CDS traders, but the average people and the businesses they run, that are starting to run for cover. In this next chart, one can see the accelerating move out of European banks by household and corporate depositors.

Again quoting Bud, "This is looking like the beginning of the end of the euro."

Now, I'm not going to delve once again into the eurozone's structural flaws – flaws of the sort that leave German taxpayers paying for early-retiring Greeks – and why those flaws assure its eventual demise, at least as now constituted. In that the demise of the euro is inevitable, talking about it is akin to having a conversation about whether the sun will set this evening.

What is worth considering, however, is what actions the government(s) might take to try to keep the wheels from falling off, even as they do fall off. Understanding those actions might give us a chance to anticipate market reactions and related investment opportunities.

Still lending a hand, here's Bud:

Germany is activating its bank bailout program that was used in the 2008 crisis, obviously preparing for default. German banks holding Greek debt will take at least 50% haircuts on the debt, and the German government will be faced with supporting them.

The first point is that the Greek bailouts haven't worked. I expected that this would not be resolved positively in 2010. Despite the short-term positive news that the next tranche of $8 B is supposed to be delivered by October, I think the confidence has been lost in ever returning the current debt to full value. They are beyond fixing now, even though they will get another round of funds. The other dominoes are likely to fall as investors move to CDS against the possibility of defaults in the other countries.

Investment opportunity? Short European banks. You might want to consider shorting the euro. This service is not designed to go into specific investment recommendations, but there are a range of options – from futures and options markets to inverse euro ETFs or even long-dollar ETFs (such as UUP), as the dollar should benefit as the outflow from the eurozone continues.

Of course, one of the best trades remains to buy gold and silver on the sort of pullback we saw this week. As I write, gold is trading back over $1,800; anyone care to bet that it will trade at $1,900 long before it hits $1,700?

Other actions we can expect to see – and in fact already have seen – is for the US to firmly grab hold of the European tar baby. After all, it's not like we have any problems of our own.

And so this week, the Fed announced that it was once again firing up the operations required to swap dollars created out of thin air for collateral denominated in euros, which is to say backed by nothing and no one. The last time around that such operations were carried out on any scale, in 2008, the Fed shipped $600 billion to Europe.

(Interestingly, much of that money made its way back to the US to buy up Treasuries, helping to keep Treasury auctions humming and interest rates low. The technical phrase for such operations is, "You scratch my back, and I'll scratch yours.")

While the markets were fooled by the "big announcement" – with Greek government yields falling (as you can see in the charts above), the stock markets rallying, and the barometer metal of gold falling – any happy thoughts engendered by the notion that the Yanks are riding once again to the rescue are certain to be short-lived.

How can I say that with a degree of confidence matching even that of Geithner?

Well, besides the fact that the US is riding in on the proverbial dead horse of a fiat currency backed by a government whose own revenue deficits are almost Greek-like, it is that the pushing around of stacks of currencies – no matter who they are issued by – does absolutely nothing to diminish either the underlying sovereign debt that is the pounding heart of the crisis or resolve the structural issues to which I earlier alluded.

Interestingly, or should I say "predictably," US banks are also grabbing hold of the European tar baby. The following excerpt is an article entitled Desperate Banks Turn to US Repos from International Financing Review.

US banks are exploiting the inability of European banks to fund themselves in dollars, charging much higher rates than normal – sometimes double that paid to money markets. But they argue they are simply taking "conservative" steps to protect themselves. Assets posted are subject to dramatic haircuts, meaning European banks can only generate cash equivalent to part of their full value.

"Repo markets have always been a source of funding, but the question has always been about whether the price points work for both parties," said one US banker involved in such deals. "As the [money market] investor base started to shy away from some names, the foreign banks became more interested in getting deals done."

Paris-based Societe Generale said that it had struck US dollar repo deals equivalent to €6bn against a portfolio of commercial mortgage-backed securities and collateralised loans with maturities longer than six months. US bankers say other banks have struck similar deals in recent weeks to generate cash.

One source at BNP Paribas with knowledge of the situation said the bank was using US dollar repo markets for fixed income activity, but "not more than usual", though the bank acknowledged that its use of short-term US money market funds dropped by €10bn to €36bn since the end of July.

Repo facilities are the financial market equivalent of pawnshops. They are appealing because they mean that banks can generate cash from assets sitting on their balance sheets without having to sell them.

"Doing repo means you don't have to sell and don't have to take the loss on many of these assets upfront," said another banker at a US bank, who has signed off on such deals in recent weeks. "You can do it privately, so nobody needs to know, and spread losses over the lifetime of the assets."

Hope that works out for them. But in that it probably won't, it provides another reason to short US banks.

If there are lessons to be derived from all of this, they might be:

  1. As we have predicted, the leadership of the eurozone economies is doing everything it can to try to keep the euro from failing. As is always the case, the US is happy to engage itself in Europe's problems, once again confirming this crisis as being both sovereign and global in nature.
  2. The US dollar may benefit for a time from the European exodus, but as the US financial house is in no better shape, it would be foolish to be optimistic about the longer-term outlook of the dollar.
  3. There are powerful forces at work in today's world – forces which, like those weighing on tectonic plates, are ready to snap at a moment's notice. If the volatility index returns to anything close to recent lows, back up the truck on the long side.
  4. This is far from over. At this point, statements delivered with confidence by Geithner, Merkel, or any of the other players at the top of the smelly sovereign heap should be treated as bald-faced lies. For obvious reasons, they are talking their books, hoping against hope that some sort of miracle will appear and make everything good. But absent the defaults and restructurings that they are trying so hard to avoid, their hopes are false hopes.

Playing the broken record, buy gold and silver and related investments on dips; bet on volatility; expect the eurozone to hit a wall; and in time, the fiat monetary system with the US dollar as its foundation to be tossed out in favor of something based on something more tangible than political promises. As the problems ricochet around the world, and the contagion spreads to the US, betting on US interest rates rising from today's unsustainable low levels will prove to be the trade that just keeps giving.

Relevant to that last point, the Chinese are becoming vocal about their intentions to diversify out of US Treasuries and into things more tangible. Quoting an article by Ambrose Evans-Pritchard entitled China to "liquidate" US Treasuries that ran yesterday in The Telegraph:

The debt markets have been warned.

A key rate setter for China's central bank let slip – or was it a slip? – that Beijing aims to run down its portfolio of US debt as soon as safely possible.

"The incremental parts of our of our foreign reserve holdings should be invested in physical assets," said Li Daokui at the World Economic Forum in the very rainy city of Dalian – former Port Arthur from Russian colonial days.

"We would like to buy stakes in Boeing, Intel, and Apple, and maybe we should invest in these types of companies in a proactive way."

"Once the US Treasury market stabilizes we can liquidate more of our holdings of Treasuries," he said.

To my knowledge, this is the first time that a top adviser to China's central bank has uttered the word "liquidate". Until now the policy has been to diversify slowly by investing the fresh $200bn accumulated each quarter into other currencies and assets – chiefly AAA euro debt from Germany, France and the hard core.

As Doug Casey has often commented, once the dollars held overseas – in sum, estimated at something like $7 trillion – begin flooding back into the US, that will only worsen the coming inflation in the United States.

Of course, if the US could get its fiscal and monetary houses back in order, perhaps such an eventuality could be avoided, but that is a very big "if." And on that topic, I turn the page over to Bud Conrad while I go fishing about in my email inbox for Friday Funnies.


Deficit Borrowing Is Right Back on Track

By Bud Conrad

With all the political hullabaloo around raising the debt ceiling, one might've thought the world would come to an end if it didn't happen. It wouldn't have, and both parties knew it. But the Democrats had to pretend that creating a higher limit was a dire necessity, and the Republicans had to pretend that they opposed it.

One thing we might have hoped for was that the contentious wrangling over the issue might have served as a catalyst for actually moderating the rate of government spending. Alas, no luck there. Once the ceiling was raised, Washington got right back to business as usual, furiously racking up debt to compensate for money it wants but doesn't have.

In fact, the government managed to go $250 billion further into hock in a single day – the day after the new limit went into effect. Don't know how they did that. But chances are, most of it went to pay back the civil service pension funds from which the Treasury had borrowed in order to keep the engine running during the flatline period in the chart below.

Whatever the case, the federal government is now right back on track to shove us $15 trillion into the hole by year's end (figures taken from the official website, TreasuryDirect):

(Click on image to enlarge)


Bits and Pieces

David again, with some random notes on news items that have washed up on the desk over the last week.

 Maybe we could send roses?

Chris from New Zealand sent over an MSNBC article on one of the men likely to lead the "new" Libya, the one the US and its allies worked so hard to help deliver from the iron rule of Gadhafi.

The opening paragraphs do a good job of summing the situation up:

The rebels' Tripoli military commander, a former leader of an Islamic militant group that sent fighters to Iraq and Afghanistan, insisted Friday that the new Libya will shun extremism and won't become a breeding ground for terrorism.

The commander, Abdel Hakim Belhaj, said he was detained in 2004 in Malaysia and sent to a secret prison in Thailand where he was tortured by CIA agents. Then he was sent to Libya and jailed for seven years by Moammar Gadhafi's regime.

Maybe a dozen roses and a handwritten note apologizing for the whole rendition thing might gloss over the hard feelings the guy might feel towards the CIA and their sponsor.

Speaking only as a casual observer, it seems to me that without an iron-man firmly in control of the country, the odds are not small that the 130 or so tribes – a couple of dozen of which are large and influential – will begin jostling for power. An unintended insult could be the awarding of a key position to one tribal leader over that of another, and next thing you know, it's back to the proverbial mattresses.

I suspect it will be quite some time before the dust in Libya actually settles, and at this point it's impossible to predict who will have any influence in the place when it does.

Meanwhile, I wonder whatever happened to Gadhafi… That he has been able to stay hidden clearly shows he is a man who knows how to plan ahead.

Next time the news media start waving their hands about the weather…

The next time the media begins hyping a weather-related event as being a "record" or "epic," embellishing the situation with "never in the history of," or spouting off about "experts attribute this record-breaking heatwave/flooding/whatever to global warming," you might want to dust off this article from C3 Headlines showing all the severe headlines from the 1950s, 1960s, and 1970s.

A random sampling from the 1950s:

1955: 51 Los Angeles Residents Die from Heat Wave

1955: Europeans Suffer from Long Heat Wave – 70 Die

1955: 25 Million Indians & Pakistanis Lose Their Homes to Floods

1956: 400,000 Square Miles of Australia Threatened by Floods

1956: "Moisture Conditions Are the Worst in Recorded History"

1956: South Pole Iceberg Sighted that Is 3X the Size of Manhattan Island

1956: 30% of US Has Extreme Drought Conditions

1956: 150 Forest Fires Plague New Mexico & Arizona

1957: "Worst Heat Wave in 100 Years" Scorches Argentina

1957: Arctic Heat Wave Has Russian Scientists Sunbathing; Polar Thunderstorm Is Reported

1957: Greenland Ice Mountains Melting from Extreme Heat Wave

1957: US


SocGen's 6 Easy Charts On What Happens To Gold And Stocks Under "QE2.5"

Posted: 16 Sep 2011 08:47 AM PDT

Looks like SocGen pulled a TGIF today and in response to its Corporate Market Alert, in which it asked the rhetorical question, "Fed QE '2.5': gold and equities to take off again?" it answers itself quickly and to the point in just 6 simple charts. Here they are...


SocGen's 6 Easy Charts On What Happens To Gold And Stocks Under "QE2.5"

Posted: 16 Sep 2011 08:47 AM PDT


Looks like SocGen pulled a TGIF today and in response to its Corporate Market Alert, in which it asked the rhetorical question, "Fed QE '2.5': gold and equities to take off again?" it answers itself quickly and to the point in just 6 simple charts. Here they are...


BREAKING: Identities of JP Morgan Silver Manipulators Exposed

Posted: 16 Sep 2011 08:46 AM PDT

Identities of people involved in the alleged JP Morgan conspiracy to manipulate the price of silver have been exposed, along with the mechanisms of the manipulation of silver. King World News was contacted two days ago by key people familiar with this situation. This was described by an individual out of London who is very familiar with the lawsuit as, "The biggest news in a long time because these are actual people who are coming out and naming names of individuals who were involved in this alleged conspiracy with JP Morgan to actively manipulate the price of silver. People may go to jail over this.

Read More @ KingWorldNews.com


Dead Men Don’t Spend

Posted: 16 Sep 2011 08:41 AM PDT

Bill Bonner View the original article. September 16, 2011 08:33 AM The Lehman bankruptcy was a much more important event than 9/11. It marked the end of a 60-year credit expansion. Maybe it marked the high water mark for the US Empire, too. And the beginning of the end for the US dollar-based world monetary system. But the occasion went by yesterday without much notice. What's most remarkable about this post-Lehman economy is that it is so un-remarkable. What do we mean? Well, yesterday we reported that consumers weren't spending…and that prices weren't rising. But that's just what you'd expect for a Great Correction. And here comes The Wall Street Journal with another non-shocker: The income of the typical American family — long the envy of much of the world — has dropped for the third year in a row and is now roughly where it was in 1996 when adjusted for inflation. The income of a household considered to be at the statistical middle fell 2.3% to an inflation-adjusted $...


Gold Triangle Remains Favored Pattern

Posted: 16 Sep 2011 08:41 AM PDT

courtesy of DailyFX.com September 16, 2011 07:36 AM 300 Minute Bars Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT “Keep the word ‘range’ in mind as a triangle may be unfolding from the August top in gold. One never knows if a triangle is underway until the pattern is mature but a triangle may be what this market needs in order to correct the recent surge in price and volatility. Remember, markets need to be corrected in both price and time.” If a triangle is underway, then the next move is probably higher in wave D towards the upper 1800s. Trend Strength (M,W,D) – 3, 2, 0 Latest Video Weekly Forecast COT Jamie Saettele publishes Daily Technicals every weekday morning, COT analysis (published Monday), technical analysis of currency crosseson Wednesday and Friday (Euro and Yen crosses), and intraday trading strategy as market action dictates at the DailyFX Forex Stream. A graduate of Bucknell University, he holds the Chartered Market Technician (CMT) des...


Gold and the Future

Posted: 16 Sep 2011 08:37 AM PDT

Click here to read Martin Armstrong's latest report – the first report since 1999 written by the computer.


Must-Listen Interview On The Global Physical Gold Market

Posted: 16 Sep 2011 08:29 AM PDT

 
"It appears that India wants to buy the entire world's gold supply at the right price"  - John Brimelow

This is about an 18 minute interview by James Turk of John Brimelow, someone who most you have never heard of but who provides invaluable reporting/information on the gold trading globally - specifically on the massive physical buying markets in India and Asia.  I access the publicly available commentary by Brimelow in the nightly Midas report at http://www.lemetropolecafe.com/  It is one of the key tools we use to manage our fund. 

If you are interested in learning about some of the key variables driving the trading price gold, you need to listen to this:   LINK



Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts - Antics Abounding

Posted: 16 Sep 2011 08:21 AM PDT


This posting includes an audio/video/photo media file: Download Now

Liquidation, Drones, Strippers

Posted: 16 Sep 2011 08:20 AM PDT

Dave Gonigam – September 16, 2011

  • You've been warned: Chinese central banker looks forward to "liquidating" U.S. Treasuries
  • Drone strikes proliferate in Pakistan, yielding an unlikely investing opportunity
  • Silver reclaims $40… Alan Knuckman makes a call for six months from now
  • Intergenerational warfare: New faction emerges in our Social Security free-for-all… engaging even 30-something lawyers who strip to pay the bills

"Once the U.S. Treasury market stabilizes, we can liquidate more of our holdings of Treasuries."

And with that, the People's Bank of China has put Uncle Sam on notice.

According to Ambrose Evans-Pritchard of the London Telegraph, this might be the first instance of a Chinese official using the words "liquidate" and "Treasuries" in the same sentence.

The official is Li Daokui, one of the major rate setters within China's central bank. He said it at a meeting in China of the World Economic Forum — the organization best known for its annual gathering of the world's power elite in Davos, Switzerland.

"The incremental parts of our foreign reserve holdings should be invested in physical assets," Li said. "We would like to buy stakes in Boeing, Intel and Apple, and maybe we should invest in these types of companies in a proactive way."

Ooh, that ought to go over well on Capitol Hill.

"The Chinese are clearly vexed with Washington," reports Evans-Pritchard, "viewing the Fed's QE [quantitative easing] as a stealth default on U.S. debt."

Cue Addison, in the new issue of Apogee Advisory, released three days ago: "The U.S. Treasury will never 'default' in the sense of stiffing creditors on interest or principal. No, it will proceed to default in a far more stealthy way… as when Uncle Sam stiffed the Japanese in the 1970s."

It's a story few Americans are aware of… but the Chinese know very well. Meanwhile, the notice Mr. Li served up this week is one in a long line chronicled in the issue. "It's a warning," Addison writes, "that China could soon cut up America's credit card."

The issue lays out two "coping strategies" for whenever that day arrives. And for one of them, the ideal time to pounce is now. Not a subscriber yet? Access here.

The CIA says one of its drone aircraft has taken out a senior Al Qaeda leader in Pakistan. Abu Hafs al-Shahri played a "key operational and administrative role," anonymous officials tell the BBC.

There's no independent confirmation of this claim… and hardly a month goes by that the U.S. government doesn't claim to have killed a "senior Al Qaeda leader."

Ho hum… But there's an intriguing investment angle to the story.

10 years ago, the U.S. military had only 60 unmanned "drone" aircraft in its arsenal. Today, the number is more than 6,000. That's a lot of weaponry that can be "piloted" remotely from a base in Nevada.

And they're getting used a lot more. Figures from the New America Foundation show there were nine U.S. drone strikes in Pakistan between 2004 and 2007. In 2008, the number jumped to 33.

The numbers continue to accelerate under President Obama: 53 in 2009, 118 last year.

The Predator C Avenger can cruise at 53,000 feet for
up to 20 hours, carrying 3,000 pounds of precision munitions.

Drones are now in use in America's covert war in Yemen… and the covert war in Somalia. Meanwhile, unarmed surveillance drones keep an eye on the U.S.-Mexico border.

Manufacturers can't make drones without a critical metal that you've likely never heard of. It's six times as strong as steel, and the Pentagon says it "possesses unique properties that make it indispensable in many of today's critical U.S. defense systems, including sensors, missiles and satellites, avionics and nuclear weapons."

And those drones that get a lot more flight time these days.

Behind the military, many other customers are lining up. "The big airplane builders have fat order books," says our metals maven Byron King. "The rest of aerospace is still doing things that have to get done — for example, building satellites that launch on a multi-year schedule, which is immune to short-term ups and downs in the economy."

The auto and nuclear industries increasingly need it, too.

No, it's not a rare earth. In fact, Byron believes, with one or two exceptions, the easy money's been made in rare earths. But this other metal — what he calls "the fourth element" — has just as much investment potential.

Byron recently identified a tiny company sitting on a huge deposit of "the fourth element." If you missed out on his rare earth gains of the last 12 months — including plays for 109% and 178% — you don't want to overlook this.

U.S. stocks started the day up, but as of this writing, the major indexes are flat.

Almost anything can happen before day's end, it being quadruple witching. Stock futures, stock options, stock index futures, stock index options… they all expire today.

European stock indexes moved up again today, buoyed by this week's serial applications of Band-Aids to the festering sores of sovereign debt in the PIIGS countries.

Germany's DAX Index, which hit a two-year low on Monday, closed the week up more than 9%.

The euro, which sat below $1.36 on Monday, ends the week just shy of $1.38.

"Emotions on Monday are often overreactions," says Strategic Currency Trader's Abe Cofnas. "So we opened bullish binary options on the euro and the DAX, expecting things to turn around by the end of the week.

"It was a great move… By Wednesday, the fear had evaporated, and our binaries took off. We sold half our DAX position for a 60% gain — and the remaining half is set to show 84% gains.

"Thursday, we closed half our euro binaries for an easy double, with a chance to score 153% on the rest. It just goes to show that when you bet on the unexpected, you can win big!"

That's how it works in the market Abe follows: In on Monday, out by Friday. No other North American trading advisory covers it. You can be on board for next week's recommendations by going here.

Gold is regaining its footing after falling below $1,800 yesterday, when the world's biggest central banks announced they would flood the European banks with dollars.

At last check, the spot price was $1,786.

Silver has regained the $40 level, if not by much. An ounce of the white metal fetches $40.06.

"Silver at these levels offers great reward to risk and is more than 25% off the April highs," says Resource Trader Alert's Alan Knuckman. Yesterday, he called for a jump to $48.50 over the next six months.

That's a 20% move from current levels… but Alan's readers are hoping for much more after the play they laid on yesterday. In the last 12 months, they've had the chance to bag precious metals gains of 125%… 206%… even 233%. Membership to Resource Trader Alert is available at half the regular fee — but only through this link:

We can't allow the weekend to start without acknowledging the end of the line for one of the auto industry's iconic brands:

The last Crown Vic, ever

A Ford plant in Talbotville, Ontario, produced the last Crown Victoria yesterday. For several years now, the Crown Vic was available only to fleet buyers — usually taxi companies and police departments.

If it's a throwback you crave — a full-size, V8, rear-wheel-drive sedan — Detroit hasn't completely left you in the lurch. Ford still builds the Lincoln Town Car on the same platform as the Crown Vic.

What, you wonder, will police departments buy in the future? This year, Chevrolet brought back a fleet-only version of the Caprice, which was last produced in 1996:

The new-wave Caprice

One look, and you understand why even the clueless bailout beneficiaries at GM aren't trying to sell it retail.

"I'm a 60-year-old, considered a baby boomer," writes a reader carrying on our Social Security free-for-all, "and since American Government in high school, I've known that my Social Security dollars were not going to be there for me."

"When I started working, I was paying for my grandparents, and then I was paying for my parents. I expected the government to let my generation starve, go without electricity or water and lose our homes, so I worked hard and put money in my pension."

"People may not want to hear it," adds a 58-year-old, "but some day, they need to face reality."

"Yes, Congress stole the money, and it has been publicized for over 30 years that I know of. I can remember hearing about the growth of government and the declining ratio of workers to people on the government payroll, and that was over 40 years ago!"

"The message has been out there, and no one wanted to pay attention. Seniors want to blame Congress, but who elected the Congress for all these years?"

"I am quite surprised at the burgeoning hate toward the older person" that this reader saw emerge yesterday, "and only wish to point out that age discrimination against workers ready to work over 55 is greater than any other form of discrimination, according to UK surveys."

"My personal experience substantiates this, so if you want me to work in my elder years, please allow me equal opportunity to jobs and not treat me to poverty based upon 'damned if you do, damned if you don't' judgments."

"When I volunteered to be a counselor for children whose parents are in immigration proceedings (our judicial wisdom only grants representation to adults and lets them use the children for their own purposes) to protect their legal rights, I was asked, at my doddering old age of 61, 'You are so old, are you still practicing?'"

"Can't work due to anti-elder discrimination and too young to retire and too old to volunteer. Strange semantics."

"If all the retirees go back to work," writes another, "how will all the new college grads find a job? There won't be any openings. The new grads are already complaining in this tight job market and asking the old people to get out of the way."

The 5: This week, a study by the Center for Work-Life Policy found Generation X getting squeezed — in part because their numbers are relatively small: 46 million Americans were born between 1965-78. Ahead of them are 78 million boomers, and behind them are 70 million millennials.

"When boomers were in middle management, they didn't have pressure from Generation X leapfrogging them, because it's not a huge group," says Sylvia Ann Hewlett, the report's co-author. "We think that Generation X is certainly feeling this more strongly because the boomers are delaying retirement."

Thus, you have lawyers in their mid-30s who make ends meet by stripping. Seriously.

We pause in rummaging through the mailbag to tell the story of Carla, who, understandably, wants to keep her last name private. She's 10 years out of law school, living in a "medium-sized city," according to a story at MSNBC's website. She was let go from her firm in 2009, and she's still paying off her student loans.

"With our economy the way it is, especially in smaller cities … you strip or you starve," Carla says.

Forgoing the bar for the pole

"I work with war widows, a nurse, a med student, women who have had to go to work to save their homes after their husbands have lost their jobs, and others who do this as a means to an end and who do not fit the profile of junkie/prostitute/dancer."

"What we all have in common is being in a tight spot financially and living in an economy that provides limited options right now."

That, and they have to contend with the paperwork to pay FICA taxes on their tip income — which they'll likely never see returned to them. Insult added to injury…

"I am fed up," as we return to the mail, "with the paranoid whiners who fret that in two years, as one such writer said, he'll get no Social Security payout at all! Give me a break.

"Not one single solitary politician has proposed the elimination of Social Security for those at or close to retirement. All changes, virtually without exception, are for those much further behind (i.e., much younger). Now those people who are decidedly younger — yes, they will likely see benefits pushed further out, sooner or later."

"But I can hardly see why you publish the paranoid ramblings of those who see all Social Security imminently down the toilet for those very close to retirement."

"In defense of your choices, I suppose the letters serve the purpose of showing just how paranoid the population is."

"I was really hit hard," writes our final contributor, "by the letter from the 49-year-old reader yesterday. I perceive he feels, like me, almost solely responsible and accountable for preparing and, ultimately, taking care of his children, wife and other family members completely unaware and unprepared to deal with the coming calamity."

"Keeping my head down and eyes on the horizon, I am lately accused by my loved ones of being too negative and too engaged in rage at the government follies levied on us.

"Maybe, as stated, laughter and satire is the best or only way to get through what portends to be a hurricane of epic proportions. As they say, so we've sown the wind, so we shall reap the whirlwind. Thanks for keeping us ready!"

The 5: It's an honor and privilege to do so. Once again, if it's retirement income you seek, we have two approaches to consider, here and here.

Have a good weekend,

Dave Gonigam
The 5 Min. Forecast

P.S. "A group of researchers," reports today's Wall Street Journal, "said that by examining the whole genome of a family of four, they were able to make unusually specific findings, including the daughter's risk of blood clots and suggestions for preventive care."

This breakthrough would not have been possible without the work of Craig Venter and the Human Genome Project. His privately funded initiative cracked the complete human genetic code in 18 months. A parallel effort by the federal government was funded with a 20-year time horizon.

Addison is on the West Coast today, interviewing Venter for the documentary RISK! He'll describe how entrepreneurs can accomplish things that bureaucrats and academics can only dream about.

Venter will also speak from first-hand experience to the ways envious bureaucrats can make life difficult for entrepreneurs… but that's a story for another day. Stay tuned…


CHART OF THE DAY: FINALLY, Investment Advisors Are Capitulating And Buying Gold

Posted: 16 Sep 2011 08:19 AM PDT

16-Sep (BusinessInsider) — Here's a fascinating little nugget.

A recent Schwab survey of 911 registered investment advisors (RIAs) asked respondents what asset class they were likely to allocate more money to going forward.

As you can see, there's almost no increase in enthusiasm for any area except… gold.

[source]

PG View: This is a trend that we here at Centennial Precious Metals have been witnessing first hand. We have a marked increase in the number of inquiries from investment advisers and wealth managers that are looking to offer physical gold to their clients. The smart ones are looking to get out in front of the rising demand for physical metal, but for many that demand has already materialized and they are scrambling to react.

Yet still only 10% of survey respondents said they would likely allocate more to gold. Is that even remotely reflective of a bubble? I think not.


Warning for Americans: Be Safe and Stay Alert. It’s coming.

Posted: 16 Sep 2011 08:12 AM PDT

Mac Slavo

In June of this year we published our first on the ground report from Greece provided to us by long-time SHTFplan.com contributor Manos. As Greece continues to deteriorate it is no doubt foreshadowing what's to come for the rest of the world's developed nations in the near future, Manos is keeping us updated and he is very concerned about the future of his country, as well as the spreading of the contagion which will soon envelop advanced economies around the globe. Greece provides us a microcosmic view of what an economic, financial, political and societal collapse looks like. In 13 Signs of a Societal Collapse, Tess Pennington details some of the events we'll see happening during a systemic break down of nations.

This is happening right now, in an economy and political system that was supposed to be centrally managed to avoid such things. We are witnessing the collapse of the first domino, and the chain reaction's blast wave will obliterate the societies of entire first world nations.

It's clear that the Greek people are suffering in an untenable situation and Manos' sentiment is that it is only going to get worse in Greece, the rest of Europe, and the United States. The steps cited by Manos as evidence of his country's collapse mirror similar events unfolding here at home. The coordinated attacks on the world's economies are coming to a head, and the situation is dire. The people of Greece are paying the price, but they won't be alone. As our friend Manos said… It's coming. Be safe and stay alert.


LGMR: ECB Dollar Move Not "Killer Package" to End Crisis

Posted: 16 Sep 2011 07:58 AM PDT

London Gold Market Report from Ben Traynor BullionVault Friday 16 September, 08:30 EDT Gold Investors "Need Strong Stomachs", ECB Dollar Move Not "Killer Package" to End Crisis, "Use More Leverage" Geithner tells Euro Leaders U.S. DOLLAR gold bullion rallied to $1789 an ounce Friday morning London time – down 3.6% from last week's close – following a sharp fall that began the previous day after key central banks announced they will begin US Dollar liquidity operations. Silver bullion gained 1.9% from Friday morning's low to hit $40.20 per ounce by lunchtime – though this still represents a 2.9% drop for the week. Banking stocks were among Friday morning's biggest gainers as European equity markets continued the rally they began on Tuesday. Earlier on Friday, gold bullion continued the previous day's decline during Asian trading, hitting a low of $1764 per ounce – 5% down on last week's close. The last time gold fell more than 5% in a week – based on Friday-to-Friday PM L...


Fall 2011: Gold Breakout Season

Posted: 16 Sep 2011 07:44 AM PDT

Morris Hubbartt Weekly Market Update Excerpt posted Sep 16, 2011 US Dollar Dead Cat Chart Dollar Commentary [LIST] [*]A close look at this chart shows that every rally in the dollar against gold has been showcased with a weaker move up, and a shorter amount of time in the uptrend, and the rally has been followed by a steep decline. This chart shows nothing more than an extremely oversold technical condition for the US dollar being worked off. This technically oversold condition for the dollar is not a buy signal. [/LIST] [LIST] [*]Many considered the Swiss franc as good as gold. That idea went up in flames with the recent attack of the Swiss government on its own currency, one accompanied by a verbal threat of money printing to hold it down. Will America’s government do something similar, or even worse? [/LIST] [LIST] [*]Will the American government to try to manage its debt problem with a major devaluation of its currency against gold? The lac...


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