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Friday, January 20, 2017

Gold World News Flash

Gold World News Flash

Can Saudi Arabia Survive With Oil Below $60?

Posted: 20 Jan 2017 02:00 AM PST

Submitted by Gregory Brew via OilPrice.com,

With the OPEC production deal holding, at least for the moment, questions have now arisen over how prospects look for the cartel’s biggest producer. It’s been a strange few years for the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, as its endured budget deficits for the first time in its modern history, stagnation in oil prices and rising competition from other OPEC members and the American shale boom. Recently, talk has centered on the Saudi monarchy’s glimpse of the future: the Vision 2030 plan, whereby it hopes to diversify its economy and end its dependence on the mercurial oil and gas market. But can the world’s biggest oil producer and OPEC’s de facto leader pull it off?

In the short term, Riyadh will continue to feel the pain of lower-than-normal oil prices. The growth outlook for Saudi Arabia has been slashed, as the International Monetary Fund (IMF) announced on January 16 that the world’s largest oil producer would see its GDP grow by only 0.4 percent in 2017. The estimate comes on the basis of the continued low price of oil, but more importantly on the country’s slashed oil production: as a result of the recent OPEC production deal, Saudi Arabia has agreed to keep its production level at or below 10 million bpd. This has resulted in a cut in its growth outlook, down from 2 percent in October, according to Bloomberg.

This comes after anemic growth in 2016, where GDP expanded by only 1.4 percent. If oil prices stabilize, and the country’s economic forecast improves, GDP will likely expand by 2.3 percent in 2018.

The official Saudi response decried the IMF’s results as overly conservative. A government spokesman declared that Saudi growth would be “north of 1 percent,” citing the anticipated investment in renewable energy and a stimulus packaged the Saudi government was planning for the private sector, according to Bloomberg.  

The Saudi leadership had been pivotal in the campaign to bring about an OPEC cut, after resisting production deals for years. The stakes were raised this year, as draining cash reserves and a resistant American energy sector convinced Riyadh that cuts were needed to boost prices. The cuts have come, surprising many analysts, and the OPEC deal looks set to hold at least for the time being.

Along with the cuts to production, the Saudi government looks to cut spending. The 2017 budget, the most detailed in the country’s history, lays out a series of measures for stabilizing state finances, which plunged into deficit in 2016 as a result of the crash in prices. The state is the largest employer and spender in the Saudi economy, which is largely built on the oil and gas industry. Cuts to construction projects and social programs, estimated at around $20 billion, will help to balance the budget. The deficit in 2016 was around 12.6 percent, down from 2015’s budget deficit of 15 percent, and if prices stay where the Saudis expect them to, between $50 and $43 per barrel, the budget gap in 2017 will be smaller still. The official Saudi estimate has the deficit amounting to 7.7 percent of GDP in 2017.

The current fiscal forecast is based on the National Transformation program (NTP) which aims at a balanced budget by 2020. The plan, also known as Vision 2030, was announced in 2016 and is intended to diversify the Saudi economy away from petroleum. The largest single component in the Saudi economic sector, the massive state energy company Saudi Aramco, is to be privatized, and its assets used to develop the country’s manufacturing, tourism and other sectors.

Gestures towards building investors’ confidence in the Saudi economy have included last year’s $17.5 billion sovereign bond sale, the largest such issue in history and a move which attracted bids totaling $67 billion, according to Bloomberg. Looking ahead, the Saudi government is expected to raise another $15 billion on international markets this year, boosting debt levels as high as 30 percent of total GDP by 2020. It is hoped that by then the budget will be back in surplus, likely spurred on by further sales of Saudi Aramco.

Investors are spurred on by the attractive Saudi rial-dollar rate, the continued strength of Saudi oil production (which has shown no signs of slowing down), and the clear interest within the current Saudi government in serious financial and economic reforms. This should make it easy for the Saudi state to raise all the funds its needs on international markets. 

But that’s in the short term. Borrowing can only cover budget deficits for so long, and growth in the non-oil economy will have to be kick-started if the Saudi vision can be realized. The problem is that Saudi non-oil prospects aren’t great, with the non-oil economy on the edge of recession pending the release of some Q316 data. Government borrowing an increase in contracts in 2017 should boost non-oil growth from 0.2 percent to 0.8 percent, hopefully reaching 1.9 percent in 2018, according to CPI Financial.

Public debt will grow from 1.6 percent in 2014 to 23 percent in 2018. This is still a historically low rate for a country the size of Saudi Arabia, but the growth in debt could have investors alarmed and scare markets away from accepting more and more Saudi debt, which looks likely to fund continued growth past 2017.

So, while the Saudi forecasts are upbeat, and Saudi rhetoric around oil prices remains buoyant and hopeful, storm clouds are hovering on the horizon for the oil kingdom. Should the Vision 2030 plan succeed, and the country pivots away from oil and gas, fostering non-oil growth and a balanced budget in the next five-to-ten years, it will have justified Saudi enthusiasm. But oil remains the most important component in the Saudi economic picture, and the assertions of the 2017 budget and future forecasts are based on the assumption that oil prices will climb back up to $60 by 2018. Should that increase fail to occur, and the Saudi treasury continue to sell off more bonds and accumulate more debt, things in Riyadh could get more unstable.

Breaking News And Best Of The Web

Posted: 20 Jan 2017 01:37 AM PST

US stocks down, gold and silver fall from multi-week high. Brexit process begins. Protesters and police gearing up for Trump inauguration. Earnings season starting well for banks and miners. Global debt continues to soar, especially in China. Fake news debate rages. Trump and Merkel trade insults.   Best Of The Web 3 things: returns, nothing […]

The post Breaking News And Best Of The Web appeared first on DollarCollapse.com.

Dear Europe, Trump's Just Not That Into You

Posted: 19 Jan 2017 11:00 PM PST

Submitted by Raul Ilargi Meijer via The Automatic Earth blog,

I’m trying, I swear, to get into the fold, but I just can’t NOT find this hilarious. On the eve of his presidency, Donald Trump tells European leaders, by not telling them diddly-squat, that he doesn’t think they matter all that much. It’s not just that his vision of the EU, and its importance, is very different from theirs, he also remembers very well what many of them have said about him in the run-up to his election for the presidency.

Europe’s leaders, with the exception of Nigel Farage and Marine Le Pen, have been ridiculing and outright demonizing Trump ever since he declared his candidacy. They’ve said similar things about him that they say about Vladimir Putin, and in the 2016 fake news avalanche they’ve thrown the two together in various ways and for reasons they claim are obvious, with quite a few Hitler quips thrown in for good measure.

Now, for some reason they all seem to think it’s important to meet with Trump before he meets with Putin, as if his view of the world, and that of his entire government, is so unbalanced it could be decided at the toss of a coin. Trump is having none of it. After having been compared to anything that’s considered worst under the sun, who’s going to blame him?

Donald Trump feels, and largely rightly so, that the principle of innocence before being proven guilty was abandoned with much fervor by many, and certainly across the EU. The result is that now he’s simply not that into them. He’s been shown no respect at all, and he has not forgotten that. And it leads to a situation that’s brilliantly entertaining.

The EU, like the Obama/Clinton cabal, have dug in their heels and then dug some more when it comes to Putin, and by -their, not his- association also to Trump. They never thought he’d be elected, and now that he has been they don’t know what to do with themselves (how about an apology for starters?).

AP reports, even if once again you have to read between all the innuendo and opinionated humbug (grow up, AP!):

Anxious European Leaders Seek An Early Audience With Trump

European leaders, anxious over Donald Trump’s unpredictability and kind words for the Kremlin, are scrambling to get face time with the new American president before he can meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin, whose provocations have set the continent on edge. One leader has raised with Trump the prospect of a U.S.-EU summit early this year, and the head of NATO — the powerful military alliance Trump has deemed “obsolete” — is angling for an in-person meeting ahead of Putin as well. British Prime Minister Theresa May is working to arrange a meeting in Washington soon after Friday’s inauguration.

 

For European leaders, a meeting with a new American president is always a sought-after — and usually easy-to-obtain — invitation. But Trump has repeatedly defied precedent, making them deeply uncertain about their standing once he takes office. Throughout his campaign and in recent interviews, Trump has challenged the viability of the EU and NATO, while praising Putin and staking out positions more in line with Moscow than Brussels. “There are efforts on the side of the Europeans to arrange a meeting with Trump as quickly as possible,” Norbert Roettgen, the head of the German Parliament’s foreign committee and a member of Chancellor Angela Merkel’s party, told AP.

 

Trump backs Britain’s exit from the European Union, casting the populist, anti-establishment movement as a precursor to his own victory. In a recent joint interview with two European newspapers, Trump said of the EU, “I don’t think it matters much for the United States.”

 

In fact, eager to stage an early show of Trans-Atlantic solidarity, Donald Tusk — the former Polish prime minister who heads the EU’s Council of member state governments— invited Trump to meet with the EU early in his administration, according to a European Union official. But a senior Trump adviser essentially rebuffed the offer, telling the AP this week that such a gathering would not be a priority for the incoming president, who wants to focus on meetings with individual countries, not the 28-nation bloc.

So far so good, but then the rhetoric starts again. Only, it does so by calling Trump’s words ‘rhetoric’:

Such rhetoric alone was enough to set off alarm bells in Europe. And Trump’s praise for Putin and promise of closer ties to Moscow have deepened the uncertainty. Trump has raised the prospect of dropping U.S. sanctions on Moscow and has appeared indifferent to Russia’s annexation of territory from Ukraine. The hacking of his opponents during the U.S. election, and Trump’s dismissal of the CIA’s warnings about Russia’s involvement, added a dose of spy drama.

 

Trump’s sentiments mark a dramatic shift in Republican views of Europe, just a generation after George H.W. Bush famously greeted the collapse of the Iron Curtain by calling for a “Europe whole and free.” Trump’s top national security adviser has been in close contact with the Russian ambassador to the U.S., conversations that have involved setting up a phone call between the Putin and the president-elect, transition officials have said. But Trump currently has no plans to meet with Putin, according to the senior adviser, who insisted on anonymity in order to discuss the transition team’s internal planning.

Why on earth would Trump NOT meet with Putin? Because of all the unsubstantiated blubber his opponents have showered over him in their attempts to derail his campaign? If anything, that would probably make him all the more determined to set up such a meeting. Moreover, there’s a lot of damage that needs to be repaired in US-Russia relations, damage done by the former administration and the press it has a love relationship with.

[..] Aides have signaled that one of Trump’s first foreign leader meetings at the White House will be with May, who became prime minister following Britain’s vote to leave the EU. The president-elect’s team is also working on early invitations to Washington for the leaders of Mexico and Canada, according to the Trump adviser. Barring other arrangements, Trump and Putin’s first meeting of the year might not come until July when the Group of 20 leaders gather in Hamburg, Germany — though Trump has yet to say whether he plans to attend international summits.

 

“If we start to equate democracies and non-democracies, allies and adversaries, this is setting a very dangerous precedent,” said Heather Conley, director of the Europe program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. She said that if Trump were to reach out to Putin ahead of the Europeans upon taking office, “it would be a real cautionary note” for long-standing U.S. allies.

 

If he does, some European leaders could get an audience with him in May at a planned NATO summit and a gathering of the more elite Group of Seven in Italy. Russia had been a member of that group, but the U.S. and Europe ousted Putin after the annexation of Crimea from Ukraine. One of the first tests of Trump’s loyalties may well be whether he seeks to bring Russia back into that fold.

Guys! You lost! You lost big. Get a grip. It’s a different world out there. Adapt accordingly or fade away. Something tells us the adaptation process will prove too much for most of Europe’s current leaders. That will necessarily mean that most won’t be leaders for long.

Europe will have to move closer to Putin as Trump does so. The war mongering posture of the past decade or so will have to go. This will be very hard to do for those leaders who have called both men everything awful in the world. Those who can’t will have to leave. Like Juncker:

Hands off EU, Trump; We Don’t Back Ohio Secession: Juncker

Donald Trump should lay off talking about the break-up of the European Union, the bloc’s chief executive said on Wednesday, pointing out that Europeans do not push for Ohio to secede from the United States. In pointed remarks on the eve of Trump’s inauguration as U.S. president, Jean-Claude Juncker said the new administration would realize it should not damage transatlantic relations but added it remained unclear what policies Trump would now pursue.

 

Juncker, the president of the European Commission, said he had yet to speak to Trump – contrary to what the President-elect said earlier this week. Juncker said Trump had confused him with European Council President Donald Tusk. “Trump spoke to Mr. Tusk and mixed us up,” said Juncker, taking a jab at the American billionaire’s grasp of his new role. “That’s the thing about international politics,” he said. “It’s all in the detail.”

 

Juncker told Germany’s BR television, according to a transcript from the Munich station, that he was sure no EU state wanted to follow Britain’s example and leave the bloc, despite Trump’s forecast this week that others would quit: “Mr. Trump should also not be indirectly encouraging them to do that,” Juncker said. “We don’t go around calling on Ohio to pull out of the United States.”

It’s clear that in many countries, growing segments of both the population and the political sphere are thinking and talking about following Britain’s example. Juncker had better address their concerns than trying to ignore and deny them, or he will guarantee to achieve the opposite of what he wants.

That Donald Trump was elected in the first place is a surefire sign that many things were going very wrong in the world. Brexit is a sign of the exact same thing. Elections and other votes coming up in Europe will be the next in line, and it doesn’t even matter who wins them; many will be far too close for comfort for the existing order.

Meanwhile, watching the spectacle unfold from a distance, we find it impossible not to be highly amused by the former world order seeing their own words and actions backfire on them. And that has nothing to do with being pro-Trump or pro-Le Pen.

Why Elites Hate Trump

Posted: 19 Jan 2017 09:30 PM PST

Here's some of the primary reasons why the elites hate Trump. Kit Daniels reporting. The Financial Armageddon Economic Collapse Blog tracks trends and forecasts , futurists , visionaries , free investigative journalists , researchers , Whistelblowers , truthers and many more

[[ This is a content summary only. Visit http://financearmageddon.blogspot.com http://www.figanews.com for full links, other content, and more! ]]

Trump Versus The CIA

Posted: 19 Jan 2017 07:50 PM PST

Authored by Paul Craig Roberts,

When I read Trump’s defenders, such as Daniel Lazare, having to balance their defense with denunciations of Trump, I think the CIA’s propaganda is working. In his article, Lazare asks the rhetorical question, “Is a military coup in the works?” He then goes on to describe the CIA and presstitute coup against Trump unfolding before our eyes. 

Having described the unprecedented frame-up of the president-elect of the United States by the CIA and the Western media, Lazare has to square himself with those doing the frame-up:

“This is not to say that the so-called President-elect’s legitimacy is not open to question. . . . Trump is a rightwing blowhard whose absurd babblings about Saudi Arabia, Iran and Yemen reveal a man who is dangerously ignorant about how the world works.”

Note that Lazare goes beyond the CIA and the presstitutes by elevating Trump from someone not sufficiently suspicious of Vladimir Putin to “dangerously ignorant.” I suppose Lazare means dangerously ignorant like Bill and Hillary Clinton, George W. Bush, and Obama. If this is what Lazare means, why is Trump any less qualified to be president than his three most recent predecessors and his opponent in the election?

Of course, Lazare has no idea what he means. He is simply afraid he will be called a “Trump deplorable,” and he stuck in some denuciatory words to ward off his dismissal as just another Russian agent.

At other times I conclude that the CIA is discrediting itself with its fierce and transparently false attack on the president elect. The attack on Trump from the CIA and its media agents at the New York Times, Washington Post, CNN, the network TV channels, the BBC, the Guardian, and every other Western print and TV source with the exception of Fox News, is based on no evidence whatsoever. None of the US 16 intelligence agencies can produce a tiny scrap of evidence. The evidence consists of nothing but constant repetitions of blatant lies fed into the presstitute media by the CIA .

We have witnessed this so many times before: “Tonkin Gulf,” “Saddam Hussein’s weapons of mass destruction,” “Iranian nukes,” “Assad’s use of chemical weapons,” “Russian invasion of Ukraine.”

General Smedley Butler, the most decorated Marine in the history of the US military said that he and the US Marines spent their lives defending the interests of the United Fruit Company and some lousy investment of the banks in Latin America. That’s all the attack on Trump is about. Trump is saying that “America first” doesn’t mean a license for America to rape and plunder other countries.

Normalized relations with Russia removes the orchestrated “Russian threat” justification for the $1,000 billion taxpayer dollars taken annually from ordinary Americans and given to the military/security complex via the federal budget.

Trump’s question about the relevance of NATO 25 years after the collapse of NATO’s purpose—the Soviet Union—threatens the power and position not only of the US military/security complex but also of Washington’s European vassals who live high in money and prestige as Washington’s servants. All European governments consist of Washington’s vassals. They are accustomed to supporting Washington’s foreign policy, not having had a policy of their own since World War II.

Trump is taking on a policy world long under the influence of the CIA. Little wonder WikiLeaks’ Julian Assange and a number of other clued-in people say that the CIA will assassinate Trump if he cannot be brought into line with a Western alliance organized for the power and profit of the few.

So what is Trump to do?

There are various alternatives. Trump could fire CIA director John Brennan, have the Attorney General indict him for treason, have the FBI locate all participants in the intelligence agencies and presstitute media who aided and abetted the attempted frame-up of the president-elect of the United States and put them all on trial. This would be the best and surest way for Trump to clean out the snakepit that is Washington, D.C. To call a snakepit a “swamp” is to use an euphemism.

Another alternative is for Trump to make the obvious point that despite the allegations of the CIA and the presstitutes, any hacking that occurred was not the fault of Trump and Russia, but the fault of the US intelligence agencies who were too incompetent to prevent it. Trump’s trump question to the CIA, NSA, FBI is: So, you know the Russians hacked us and you did not prevent it? If you repeat your incompetence, I am going to fire everyone of you incompetents.

The same goes for terror attacks. Trump should ask the intelligence agencies: “How were you so totally incompetent that a handful of Saudi Arabians who could not fly airplanes brought down three WTC skyscrappers and desroyed part of the Pentagon, humiliating the world’s sole super-power in the eyes of the world?”

Trump should make the point that the huge amount of money spent on security does not produce security. The massive security budget cannot prevent hacking of an American election and it cannot prevent humiliating attacks on the SuperPower by a handful of Saudi Arabians operating independently of any intelligence service.

Trump should raise the obvious question: Has the Saudi’s oil trillions purchased the CIA and the presstitutes so that the CIA and the corrupt Western media now serve foreign interests against the United States? The story is being established that the Saudis are responsible or 9/11 and nothing is done about it. Instead the Saudis are supplied with more weapons with which to murder women and children in Yemen.

All of the CIA’s propaganda can be turned against the agency. 9/11 was due to CIA failure, and to nothing else. Putin’s theft of the US presidential election was due to CIA failure, and to nothing else. All the bombings in France, UK, and Germany are due to intelligence failings, and to nothing else, as is the Boston Marathon bombing and every other alleged “terror event.”

I mean, really, the CIA is a sitting duck for Trump. He has every reason to abolish the agency that has traditionally operated in behalf of narrow interests. In his book, The Brothers, Stephen Kinzer documents the use of the CIA and State Department in behalf of the clients of the Dulles brothers’ law firm’s clients. The CIA serves no American purpose, only the private purposes of the ruling elites, who are the real deplorables who have used corrupt Western governments to solidify all income and wealth in a few greedy hands.

There is no reason for Trump to tolerate spurious charges against him by the CIA. At best the CIA is incompetent. At worst the agency is complicit in, or organizer of, terrorist events.

A US-China Head-On Collision Coming? - Charlie Smith

Posted: 19 Jan 2017 06:30 PM PST

Jeff Rense & Charlie Smith - A US-China Head-On Collision Coming? I believe you don't just go to war with China, you go to war with China, Russia, and Iran at the same time. They will stick together if anything happens to any one of them, if they can collapse our banking infrastructure,...

[[ This is a content summary only. Visit http://financearmageddon.blogspot.com http://www.figanews.com for full links, other content, and more! ]]

Henry Kissinger: National debt is a major problem

Posted: 19 Jan 2017 06:00 PM PST

Former Secretary of State Henry Kissinger on U.S. debt and relations with Russia under President-elect Trump. The Financial Armageddon Economic Collapse Blog tracks trends and forecasts , futurists , visionaries , free investigative journalists , researchers , Whistelblowers , truthers...

[[ This is a content summary only. Visit http://financearmageddon.blogspot.com http://www.figanews.com for full links, other content, and more! ]]

Mnuchin says long-term strength of U.S. dollar is important

Posted: 19 Jan 2017 04:54 PM PST

By Saleha Mohsin and Austin Weinstein
Bloomberg News
Thursday, January 19, 2017

Treasury Secretary nominee Steven Mnuchin told lawmakers today the long-term strength of the U.S. dollar is important and said President-elect Donald Trump's comments that the currency was too high weren't meant as a longer-run policy.

The dollar's "long-term strength -- over long periods of time -- is important," Mnuchin said in response to questions at his confirmation hearing before the Senate Finance Committee in Washington. "The U.S. currency has been the most attractive currency to be in for very, very long periods of time. I think that it's important and I think you see that now more than ever." ...

... For the remainder of the report:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-01-19/mnuchin-says-long-ter...


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Alasdair Macleod: A gold primer for 2017

Posted: 19 Jan 2017 04:14 PM PST

7:15p ET Thursday, January 19, 2017

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

GoldMoney research director Alasdair Macleod explains today why Elliott wave theory has no application to gold trading and why amid steadily depreciating currencies, gold has every reason to rise. Macleod's commentary is headlined "Gold -- A Primer for 2017" and it's posted at GoldMoney's internet site here:

https://wealth.goldmoney.com/research/goldmoney-insights/gold-a-primer-f...

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org


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If Trump is Killed During Inauguration, Obama Appointee Would Be President

Posted: 19 Jan 2017 04:00 PM PST

 CNN has been criticized for airing a report which revealed that an Obama appointee would become president if Donald Trump was killed during an attack on the inauguration tomorrow. The Financial Armageddon Economic Collapse Blog tracks trends and forecasts , futurists , visionaries...

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Turkey, ‘Axis of Gold’ and the End of US Dollar Hegemony

Posted: 19 Jan 2017 02:30 PM PST

gold.ie

Could Trump Make China “Go Nuclear?”

Posted: 19 Jan 2017 02:08 PM PST

This post Could Trump Make China "Go Nuclear?" appeared first on Daily Reckoning.

"There's never been a presidential transition like the one we're about to go through," warned Jim Rickards last night. "This transition could turn the world upside down.”

Donald John Trump gets sworn in as the 45the president of these United States this Friday, high noon. And that's when the world could start going head-over-heels…

Our very own Peter Coyne and Jim Rickards held an emergency live broadcast last evening… just a block from the White House, outside… in the January chill.

The purpose: to warn investors about a looming currency shock that could blindside markets and devastate stocks in the near future. And how to prepare for it.

On day one, huffs Trump, "China will be labelled a currency manipulator." That's no mere gust of rhetoric. Jim says that will begin a formal process that could end with the U.S. imposing harsh trade sanctions on China.

That, continues Jim, is "like firing the first shot of a currency war." And China will retaliate with what Jim calls their "nuclear option."

China's nuclear option? We'll return to that shortly. But first…

Chinese opinions of Trump have shifted post-election. Many initially thought he'd take a pragmatic, businesslike approach to U.S.-China relations. But many of Trump's post-election actions have the Chinese doing a 180…

"China needs to face up to the reality," argues a recent editorial in the Chinese Global Times, "that the Trump team maintains a hard-line attitude."

First Trump took a post-election congratulatory call from the leader of Taiwan. That was a big no-no for China. It also broke 37 years of diplomatic protocol. China will tolerate nothing that even suggests Taiwan's an independent state.

Then Trump tapped uber-China critic Peter Navarro — author of a book bearing the harmless title Death by China — to honcho the National Trade Council.

Rex Tillerson, Trump's secretary of state nominee, wants to deny China access to the artificial islands it's built in the South China Sea. A blockade, in other words. A blockade is an act of war, we mention apropos of nothing in particular.

Maybe this is all a negotiating ploy? Maybe Trump's simply trying to bargain from a position of strength to get better trade deals, the art of the deal and all. Ask for the sun and settle for the moon. Maybe he's much more flexible than he's letting on.

Maybe. But as Jim explained last night, Trump doesn't understand the guy across the poker table. He's asking for concessions China will never make…

Trump thinks he can use talk of Taiwan's independence as a negotiating lever. But Taiwan's a nonstarter for China, says Jim. Trump can't use it as a lever because China would never budge a jot. "It's like China recognizing California as a separate country," says Jim. So Trump enters negotiations with a pair of nines instead of the royal flush he thinks.

Also, North Korea's close to developing deliverable nuclear weapons. China has great influence over North Korea. It's their main source of food. And Trump wants China to use that leverage to get the Norks to quit it.

But Jim says China can't afford to cut off North Korea's food. North Korea would then open its border and flood China with a million starving refugees. That would destabilize China — which China fears far more than even the establishment fears Trump. No deal then. Another weak hand…

And those islands in the South China Sea? Is China really going to let the U.S. Navy blockade them? Would the U.S. tolerate a Chinese blockade of an island it built in the Caribbean? What's there to negotiate?

Jim got to the nub last night: "Trump wants things the Chinese can't give. He's going to demand them, the Chinese are not going to give them, Trump's going to fire back by calling them a currency manipulator and then China's going to go for [the nuclear option]."

Ah yes, the nuclear option. What's that?

A "maxi-devaluation."

China could devalue the yuan 20%, 25%, 30%, overnight. The last two times the Chinese devalued, in 2015 and early 2016, it was only a few percent. But it was enough to drop the stock market over 10% each time. Some feared stocks would never come back.

What happens if China devalues 30%?

Jim explained last night that China's actually propping up the yuan right now. And they're burning through their dollar reserves to do it (selling dollars and buying yuan boosts the yuan.)

But Trump's unimpressed. And if Trump's not offering China any reward for playing nice, what does China have to lose by devaluing? And they could have much to gain. Jim:

By propping up the yuan, China's trying to keep the U.S. happy. But if there's no reward for good behavior, if they're going to be called a currency manipulator anyway, and it looks like it's headed that way, why should they prop up the currency? Let it go down 30%. Their problem is solved. They're not going broke propping up their currency. They can keep their reserves. Their exports will be better. And they can say they didn't start it. The U.S. fired the first shot.

Add the numbers and it's clear, says Jim: "We're heading for a major clash between the United States and China."

He thinks the fun could start Friday, next Monday or three weeks from now. Regardless, "It's coming," Jim says. "It's coming."

Stocks barely held on the last time China devalued. Can they survive the next one? We may soon get an answer…

Regards,

Brian Maher
Managing editor, The Daily Reckoning

The post Could Trump Make China "Go Nuclear?" appeared first on Daily Reckoning.

Gold Seeker Closing Report: Gold Pares Early Losses To End Only Slightly Lower

Posted: 19 Jan 2017 01:37 PM PST

Gold fell $7.89 to $1197.71 in Asia before it bounced back to $1205.85 in early New York trade and then fell to a new session low of $1195.98 at about 10AM EST, but it then rallied back higher into the close and ended with a loss of just 0.07%. Silver slipped to as low as $16.736 before it also bounced back higher, but it still ended with a loss of 0.47%.

Is China About to Drop a Bombshell?

Posted: 19 Jan 2017 01:00 PM PST

This post Is China About to Drop a Bombshell? appeared first on Daily Reckoning.

[Ed. Note: Jim Rickards latest New York Times best seller, The Road to Ruin: The Global Elites' Secret Plan for the Next Financial Crisis (claim your free copy here) transcends politics and the media to prepare you for the next crisis] 

Is Trump’s anti-China rhetoric going to trigger another currency war with China? If so, China may jump out ahead and devalue the Chinese yuan.

In that case, the Dow Jones Industrial Average could plunge to 17,824, and the S&P 500 could plunge to 2,024 in a matter of weeks, wiping out trillions of dollars of investor wealth.

This is not guesswork. Plunges of over 10% in U.S. stock indices happened twice in the past year-and-a-half. The first time was in August 2015. The second was January-February 2016. Both times it was because of a combination of a stronger dollar and weaker yuan. It could happen again. And you need to understand the dynamics both to avoid losses and reap big gains by positioning ahead of the meltdown.

Here's a quick synopsis:

  • China is struggling under the weight of too much debt, poor demographics, and competition from lower priced suppliers in Vietnam, Indonesia, and the Philippines.
  • China needs economic relief. Fiscal stimulus just means more non-sustainable debt. China has too much of that already. The easiest way to give the Chinese economy a boost is to cheapen its currency, the yuan (CNY), to make its exports more competitive.
  • When China cheapens CNY, they encourage capital flight. We're seeing that now. Over $700 billion fled China last year alone. The wealthy and well connected try to get their money out of China as quickly as possible before the next devaluation. This causes the dumping of Chinese stocks, which could then infects U.S. stock markets and causes a global liquidity crisis. The last two times China devalued, U.S. stocks fell over 10%.

From early March to mid-May 2016, the yuan was stable against the dollar, and the dollar got weaker against the yen and euro. U.S. stocks staged a major rally from around 16,000 to almost 18,000 on the Dow Jones Industrial Index. It seemed that all was right with the world.

Unfortunately, the Fed could not leave well enough alone. Instead of celebrating this truce in the currency wars, the Fed began talking about interest rate hikes possibly in June or July.

The hawkish tone was expressed by several regional reserve bank presidents, notably James Bullard, Loretta Mester, and Esther George. The dollar rallied almost 4% in a few weeks. That's a huge move in currencies where changes are usually registered as small fractions of 1%.

At that point, China felt double-crossed by the U.S. and began a new devaluation against the U.S. dollar. This new devaluation effort came on top of the first devaluation "shock" of August 10, 2015 where the yuan was devalued 3% overnight, and a second “stealth” devaluation from December 2015 to January 2016. It was a stealth devaluation because China moved in small increments every day instead of one huge devaluation in a single day.

The shock devaluation and the stealth devaluation both took place while the dollar was getting stronger in anticipation of U.S. rate hikes. That anticipation was fueled by the Fed, which starting talking about rate hikes. The result was the dollar strengthened and the China devaluation began.

What do all of the currency wars moves have to do with U.S. stocks?

The answer is the USD/CNY cross-rate may be a more powerful determinant of stock prices than traditional barometers such as earnings, stock multiples or economic growth.

By last July, the Dow Jones Industrial Index (DJIA) hit a then all-time high of 18,533.05 and the S&P 500 also reached an all-time high of 2,166.89. But, those indices were close to those levels on two previous occasions, August 10, 2015 and December 16, 2015.

Both times China began to devalue and both times U.S. stock markets sank like a stone.

The DJIA dropped 11% (Aug. 10 to Aug. 25, 2015), and 12% (Dec. 16, 2015 to Feb. 11, 2016). It's now at 19,804. If history repeats and China devalues again, DJIA could drop to 17,824 or lower, and the S&P could drop to 2,024 or lower.

The process of a new crash had already started early last June, but the crash was "saved by Brexit." The Brexit vote caused an immediate collapse in sterling and the euro and led to a "risk off" flight to quality in dollars, gold and U.S. stocks. The Brexit bounce is long over but the post-election Trump reflation trade took stocks to nosebleed levels. The Dow has been flirting with the mythical 20,000 mark.  

The question is will history repeat itself, will China devalue again… or will this time be different?

At Currency Wars Alert, we use our proprietary IMPACT method to spot the next moves in major currency pairs. IMPACT is a method I learned in my work for the U.S. intelligence community including the CIA, and the Director of National Intelligence.

It's based on what the intelligence community calls "indications and warnings." Even in the absence of perfect information, you can tell where you're going by unique signposts along the way.

What are the indications and warnings we see on CNY/USD?

Currency pairs don't move in a vacuum. They move in response to interest rate policy including forward guidance about policy. To a great extent, interest rates and exchange rates are reciprocals. If interest rates are higher, or expected to go higher, the currency will strengthen as capital flows in to take advantage of higher yields.

If interest rates are lower, or expected to go lower, the currency will weaken as capital flows out in search of higher yields elsewhere. The knowledge that currency rates reflect trade deficits and surpluses is mostly obsolete. Capital flows dominate trade flows in the determination of exchange rates.

When China devalued the yuan in August 2015, capital outflows surged. Once the yuan stabilized against the dollar in early 2016, the capital outflows were greatly reduced. That's since changed. Now, early in 2017, capital outflows from China have reached unsustainable levels. If it keeps selling dollars to prop up the yuan, China will burn through all its dollar reserves by the end of the year at the current rate.

I'm keeping a close eye on these outflows. They're one of the main indications and warnings I'm watching to determine the timing of the next Chinese devaluation.

In the short-run, U.S. stocks could be headed for a fall since the Trump reflation trade is running out of steam and renewed tough talk by some Fed officials of additional hikes suggests a stronger dollar. Right now it looks highly likely that the Fed is going to raise in March after raising in December.

The Fed is concerned that U.S. stocks are in bubble territory. They suggest that the easier financial conditions caused by higher stock prices make this a good time to raise interest rates. The rate hike talk then makes the dollar stronger and puts pressure on the yuan. An unstable yuan triggers capital flight, which causes a spillover liquidity crunch, which in turn could lead to a correction in U.S. stocks.

Once the correction takes place, the Fed can try to rescue the stock market again with more dovish signals. That would weaken the dollar and stabilize the yuan. But the risks are that the Fed has not learned from its past mistakes and late March-to-April 2017 could be a replay of August 2015 and January 2016.

And after all these years of market intervention, the Fed may well be out of powder to handle another crisis.

Fasten your seatbelts.

Regards,

Jim Rickards
for The Daily Reckoning

The post Is China About to Drop a Bombshell? appeared first on Daily Reckoning.

Henry Kissinger on what type of president Trump might be

Posted: 19 Jan 2017 12:57 PM PST

Former Secretary of State Henry Kissinger on NATO and what kind of president Donald Trump might be. The Financial Armageddon Economic Collapse Blog tracks trends and forecasts , futurists , visionaries , free investigative journalists , researchers , Whistelblowers , truthers and many...

[[ This is a content summary only. Visit http://financearmageddon.blogspot.com http://www.figanews.com for full links, other content, and more! ]]

A 'Hoof-in-Mouth' Market

Posted: 19 Jan 2017 12:54 PM PST

As I muse delightfully this afternoon over my quote terminal, I am enthralled to take note of silver's uncanny ability on Tuesday to actually listen to my cares and concerns and mount a 2.5% rally against a paltry 1.6% for gold into what has been the first of many of what I alluded to on the weekend—the insertion of a large Donald Trump boot directly into the very large Donald Trump mouth with his overnight comments about the USD being "too strong." The resultant crash in the USD has caused a rally in the T-bonds and a crash in stocks despite efforts being made everywhere to stick save stocks and cap gold and silver.

Growing Silver Developer Breaks Out of Downtrend Channel With New Management Team

Posted: 19 Jan 2017 12:36 PM PST

Important developments will be taking place over the next 8 weeks which

could truly be dynamic.

The stock market is way overbought and real estate is super overvalued. I noticed Blackstone a
large private equity group is now taking public and looking to sell its
residential rental business which it acquired at pennies on the dollar off
of Joe the Plumber who got snickered into real estate investments when
mortgage companies were giving away money. Maybe Blackstone see’s a top
forming? The same people who bought it off of Joe the Plumber are now
trying to sell it back at 100 times the valuations.

These markets are terribly corrupt and once in a long while the Banks
get a little slap on their wrist from the regulators and pay some small
fine. Deutsche Bank just paid a $60 million USD fine for fixing the gold
price.

Eventually there will be another short squeeze in precious metals. Gold
will soar but silver could make a dramatic move possibly even surpassing
2011 highs near $50 an ounce. I believe now is the time to own insurance
in the form of silver against a turning of the tide. Now the US dollar is strong but for how
much longer?

When Obama came into office, Bernanke promised they would do whatever they
needed to do to prevent another great depression. They threw money out of
helicopters for eight years.

Finishing eight years of a record market
pushed higher by quantitative easing and historically low interest rates
will be difficult for the masses. We are in a stage now that the negative
effects of the inflation have not yet occurred.

Could it be that Trump is
being the scapegoat that everyone will blame when stocks and housing start
tanking again?

I expect rates to begin to move higher and inflation to begin to rear its
ugly head in 2017. I can’t believe the US dollar is this strong and will
hold up much longer with record low interest rates and so much quantitative
easing.

Silver is the place to be right now as it is cheap and I believe there are great
opportunities in this area if you stick to extremely high grade assets with
top notch management in stable jurisdictions. Look for management with
track records of negotiation buyouts.

For instance, back in 2013 Coeur
d’Alene, one of the largest US Silver producers bought Orko Silver for $350
million in cash and stock outbidding rival First Majestic Silver. The CEO
of Orko who negotiated that deal was Gary Cope.

You got to follow people in this mining industry like Gary Cope especially
if they were able to sell their company at a premium in a bear market.
Just crossing my desk this morning is news that Gary Cope has just come on
as CEO of Dolly Varden Silver (DV.V or DOLLF).

Dolly Varden has always had
a great high grade silver asset but it has had management issues for years.
This new CEO change with Gary Cope could be a huge catalyst for Dolly
Varden as the reason they may have hired him was for him to negotiate the
best deal possible with potential suitors. He knows how to negotiate with
the top silver players.

Also he comes along with an exceptional geological
team that could expand the project size and high grade. Large silver
producers are also looking to diversify into friendly jurisdictions like
Canada as well.

"We have put together an exceptional geological team with a diverse set of
skills and knowledge to support our exploration effort at Dolly Varden.
After validating the high grade silver rich nature of the Dolly Varden
property in the 2015 maiden NI 43-101 mineral resource estimate, we expect
that current estimated high-grade silver mineralization is further
expandable, and we believe there are similar deposits on the under-explored
remainder of the large project where the same lithologies, structure,
alteration and indicator elements have been defined in previous field
programs. The results achieved in 2016 on Ace-Galena are an example of the
growing opportunity at Dolly Varden," said Gary Cope, President and CEO of
Dolly Varden.

https://www.dollyvardensilver.com/news/2016/dolly-varden-announces-appointment-of-gary-cope-as-president-and-ceo-offering-of-common-and-flow-through-shares-and-grant-of/

Dolly Varden granted options at $.65 per share to Mr. Cope. Any price
below that I consider to be a bargain as you now have great management
combined with one of the highest grade silver resources in Canada. The
stock has been in a four month correction but made a bullish MACD crossover
in late November and could be on the verge of breaking a four month
downtrend resistance on this exciting news. More later on Dolly Varden
(DV.V or DOLLF)…

(Update: Since this has been written Dolly Varden has broken its downtrend channel.)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Disclosure: I own securities in Dolly Varden Silver and they are website
sponsor. I am considering purchasing more. This should be considered a
conflict of interest as I could benefit from price/volume increase and have
been compensated. This is not financial advice and contains forward looking

statements which may not come to fruition.  Buyer Beware! See full disclaimer and current advertising rates by
clicking on the following link:

http://goldstocktrades.com/blog/

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instruments of transportation or communication in interstate commerce or by
the use of the mails, to publish, give publicity to, or circulate any
notice, circular, advertisement, newspaper, article, letter, investment
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for sale, describes such security for a consideration received or to be
received, directly or indirectly, from an issuer, underwriter, or dealer,
without fully disclosing the receipt, whether past or prospective, of such
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Essential Commodities: Gold, Silver, Popcorn

Posted: 19 Jan 2017 12:22 PM PST

Yesterday's sell-off in gold occurred after the Comex floor had closed for the day. The period of time between when the Comex closes – 1:30 p.m. EST – and the CME's Globex computer system trading closes for about an hour – 5 p.m. EST – is one of the least liquid trading periods of the 23 hour, 5-day trading week. It makes that period of time susceptible to manipulative price take-downs.

Breaking! CNN Just Detailed The Death Of President elect Trump and It's Bad Folks

Posted: 19 Jan 2017 12:00 PM PST

CNN is a corrupt organization run by the elite their fake news .revolutionCNN is going to die, not Trump. This twisted wishful thinking type newscast is the final nail in their coffin !! CIA CNN GAY FAG - FAKE NEWS The Financial Armageddon Economic Collapse Blog tracks trends and...

[[ This is a content summary only. Visit http://financearmageddon.blogspot.com http://www.figanews.com for full links, other content, and more! ]]

Top 10 Donald Trump Tweets About Gold

Posted: 19 Jan 2017 11:46 AM PST

This post Top 10 Donald Trump Tweets About Gold appeared first on Daily Reckoning.

As Donald J. Trump continues to utilize Twitter as his primary medium of breaking news, opinion and more – Trump tweets about gold, fiat currency and major companies will continue to impact markets.

So where is a safe space to invest? Many believe gold might be the pivotal economic security blanket.

Jim Rickards gave us an exclusive look at his analysis featured in the Center on Sanctions and Illicit Finance where he noted, "Gold offers adversaries significant benefits in a world of U.S. imposed dollar-based sanctions. Gold is physical, not digital, so it cannot be hacked or frozen. Gold is easy to transport by air to settle balance of payments or other transactions between nations."

Gold has been positioned to be a reliable asset in the wake of great volatility.

In the world of gold and commodities, understanding the Trump tweets about gold and topics surrounding the Federal Reserve could better position you to stay above the market noise.

While some of the tweets may be indirectly about gold, they all have a relative impact within its place in the market.

Top 10 Donald Trump Tweets About Gold:

[OK, so this may be the same as the tweet sent out in February of 2015 beyond Trump choosing to capitalize the first half of the sentence. The point is, this is obviously a philosophy well established in his thought process.]

[While this may not seem like a tweet about gold, it is. Gold had just fallen for three months in a row. Which is such a rare occasion that even Forbes noted the historical significance of it. The Federal Reserve's actions had investors spooked across the board.]

[Donald Trump was not the catalyst for the move, the Fed action put a higher demand on gold. As CNN noted at the time, gold was "topping a fresh record high above $1,900 an ounce."]

The expectation that even more tweets on gold would stream from the commander-in-chief is almost certain.

With his Twitter habits Trump has amassed a steady following. The newest resident at 1600 Pennsylvania Ave. has surpassed 20 million followers. On the Twitter-sphere, that places him right behind Canadian pop-rock star Avril Lavigne in overall followers.

While considerable differences exist between the two audiences, one is the president of the United States who has the ability to move markets, direct investors, shake up foreign policy and direct the world's largest military.

Trump's Twitter habits, as he told the Sunday Times, will continue throughout his term in office. He noted, "…I can put out Twitter — and it's not 140, it's now 280 — I can go bing bing bing… and they put it on…" The clear expectation is that Twitter will become an even more prolific communication device once the Republican leader begins to shape policy.

Markets and monetary policy have already begun to stem from tweets sent from Donald Trump.  Companies such as General Motors (GM), Carrier, Boeing and Toyota have all seen their stocks shift due to the tweeting habits from @realDonaldTrump.

One start up company took on this market reaction and created an app called Trump Trigger which allows users to immediately trade stocks based around Trump's tweets about public companies that are sent out.

While there is no way to predict the musings from our president, one thing is for sure – Twitter will be a must-see medium. As long as his Trump tweets continue to get results, this tactic will continue.

Now is the time to keep your eyes on the monetary system. It is time to pay attention to the impact of gold and the dollar seeping through the Oval Office and the @realDonaldTrump.

Thanks for reading,

Craig Wilson, @craig_wilson7
for the Daily Reckoning

The post Top 10 Donald Trump Tweets About Gold appeared first on Daily Reckoning.

Junk Silver On Sale!

Posted: 19 Jan 2017 11:17 AM PST

We currently have a decent supply of junk silver available, both dimes and quarters.  These are very competitively priced at $1.75 over spot silver.  This pricing will last until current inventory is depleted and will be honored on a first come, first served basis.  Please contact Bill at  bholter@hotmail.com with any inquiries. 

The post Junk Silver On Sale! appeared first on Jim Sinclair's Mineset.

Nomi Prins: Expect Gold Up, Dollar Down for End of 2017

Posted: 19 Jan 2017 10:45 AM PST

This post Nomi Prins: Expect Gold Up, Dollar Down for End of 2017 appeared first on Daily Reckoning.

Just before the inauguration of Donald Trump, Greg Hunter at USA Watchdog had Nomi Prins on to discuss her views on the possibility for the end of 2017 to end with gold up and the U.S dollar down.

Nomi Prins is a best selling author, historian and former Wall Street insider who worked at Goldman Sachs as a managing director, along with several other major banks across the globe. She is currently working on her latest book, Artisans of Money, which will focus on the connections between central banks and the creation of cheap money as a global policy.

When asked about the first 100 days of Trump's presidency she noted, "There is going to be Congressional pushback. Trump is going to continue to use Twitter and other sorts of outlets to talk about small numbers of jobs that have been created. Whether it is Ford bringing back a single plant, Walmart hiring more workers, or whatever that might be. The reality of the larger infrastructure promises that have been made require funding by Congress.”

"Congress does not move that fast, regardless of Republican or Democrat, especially to issue money and increase the U.S debt. There is going to be volatility between what Trump has promised and what will occur. The dollar will rally not just on the back of Trump winning, but the Fed raising rates. It will also add to a volatile bind. The dollar is going to appreciate every time there is news about potential growth."

"The reality is the economy is still weak. These things take time. When the Fed raised rates in December of 2015, its forecast was for four rate increases in 2016. We only got one. Now in 2016 when we got one increase in December, they forecast three rate hikes. I don't believe we are going to get more than a 25 basis point increase, at the very max 50 points, because the Fed is going to continue to watch its models for growth, job creation, wages and stability on the ground.”

“The recipient of that, as it usually has in times of uncertainty and volatility, will be gold up – but not yet. It is going to take a bit of time to see how the promise policies meet what is actually going to be enacted by Congress."

When asked what direction she views the dollar heading, "I see for the first half of the year, as we look at what is manifesting for the first 100 days and what the Fed will do after its rate hike of 2016, I see the dollar expectations going well. It will stay within a range fairly up. Once the realization that these things take more time than simply infrastructure promises, the Fed will have to take a closer look at what is really happening in the U.S economy."

"The global economy is very unstable. There is a lot of debt in the world that is denominated in dollars. To the extent that the dollar stays high or goes higher because of those growth promises, or based on Fed hikes, it is going to create more problems throughout the world. That will come back to haunt the U.S. When that happens, I see the dollar turning around and weakening toward the second half of the year. This is why the next half of the year we will see gold up as it gets a bid."

Hunter then asked what wild cards the former Wall Street insider will be watching in the global economy for 2017. Along with several aspects to watch she noted that China would be worth monitoring, "What is going to be the most interesting to watch is what happens with the U.S in contrast to the Russia-China dynamic. What has happened in the last few years, since the financial crisis, China has taken a leadership role within its own region. It has issued loans for infrastructure development throughout the Asian area, Latin America and has ultimately got its currency into the International Monetary Fund's special drawing rights (SDR) in October of 2016.”

 

“It has taken up bilateral and trilateral trade agreements with states like Russia. It has even started initial steps in negotiations with Japan, where it has a historically strained relationship, but on an economic basis they are negotiating for partnerships. They are also having a weakening in their economy because of this extension. The weakening, though, is still a relative strength within the region.”

Nomi Prins Gold Up

On the activities of central banks around the world Prins says, "For 2017, if we have a crash it is going to be in the second half of the year. After the missed promises, Fed rate hikes, the dollar being high and then collapsing into the realities of instability and artificialness. That is going to hinge, not just on what happens globally, but in particular what happens in Europe. The European Central Bank (ECB) has now extended its purchase program throughout the end of 2017."

"If you look at the trend of the ECB as one central bank example of artificial stimulator, we could see volatility to the downside… That will be after the various major European elections happen. If we see a considerable decline it will be at the end of the year, with an expectation toward the second half of the last quarter. I really see a downward trend into that. Not necessarily as a crash, but as these elections, arrangements and realities come into effect we will see a decline in the second half."

To catch the full interview featuring Nomi Prins analysis on why to expect gold up, dollar headed down and where emerging markets will be that was featured on Greg Hunter's USAWatchdog.com CLICK HERE.

Regards,

Craig Wilson, @craig_wilson7

for the Daily Reckoning

The post Nomi Prins: Expect Gold Up, Dollar Down for End of 2017 appeared first on Daily Reckoning.

John Embry: Watch out when reality breaks through fake news, manipulated markets

Posted: 19 Jan 2017 10:17 AM PST

1:17p ET Thursday, January 19, 2017

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Sprott Asset Management's John Embry tells King World News today that people are going to be horrified when reality breaks through fake news, manipulated markets, propaganda, and economic data that has been falsified by government. An excerpt from his interview is posted at KWN here:

http://kingworldnews.com/the-uninformed-public-will-be-horrified-by-what...

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org


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Friday, February 24, 2017
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Tuesday-Friday, March 28-31, 2017
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GATA is a civil rights and educational organization based in the United States and tax-exempt under the U.S. Internal Revenue Code. Its e-mail dispatches are free, and you can subscribe at:

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Trump is waving adios to the longstanding ‘strong dollar policy’

Posted: 19 Jan 2017 09:43 AM PST

Markets, as most of us know, move on sentiment as much as they do hard realities. Thus someone the stature of the U.S. president talking down the dollar is very important to market psychology – not just for gold but all markets. The Trump administration's position has already had an effect on the gold market. Though gold has reacted rather modestly to Janet Yellen's announcement two days ago of more interest rate hikes this year, it is nothing when compared to the waterfall drops following past announcements on the subject of higher rates.

Major Markets at Turning Points

Posted: 19 Jan 2017 08:59 AM PST

Gold prices bottomed in December 2015 unless you believe that deflation or a "black swan" event will crash all markets in the near future. The following chart makes a strong case for a gold bottom over a year ago. Ratios comparing gold to debt, the SPX, the DJIA and M2 also suggest that gold already hit a significant bottom. More importantly those ratios suggest that gold should rally substantially from here.

Bonds, Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Silver Major Markets at Turning Points

Posted: 19 Jan 2017 07:21 AM PST

Bonds have risen in a 35 year bull market. That bull market looks tired and probably peaked in July of 2016. The U.S. Dollar Index recently hit 14 year highs. Has the dollar finally peaked? Has it turned downward since January 3, 2017? Stocks have been rising since the 2009 crash lows. Rounded to the nearest point, the Dow hit 20,000. Was that enough to make a final top before a major turn downward?

GATA Chairman Murphy interviewed by the Daily Coin

Posted: 19 Jan 2017 07:17 AM PST

10:17a ET Thursday, January 19, 2017

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

With the gold price suppression scheme showing strain, the Daily Coin interviews GATA Chairman Bill Murphy about the prospects for the monetary metals. The interview is 23 minutes long and can be heard here:

http://thedailycoin.org/2017/01/18/bill-murphy-gold-silver-banking-cabal...

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org


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Join GATA here:

Vancouver Resource Investment Conference
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Vancouver Convention Centre West
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Friday, February 24, 2017
Resort Mundo Imperial
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Mining Investment Asia
Tuesday-Friday, March 28-31, 2017
Marina Bay Sands, Singapore
http://www.mininginvestmentasia.com/

Mines and Money Asia
Wednesday-Friday, April 5-7, 2017
Hong Kong Convention and Exhibition Centre
http://asia.minesandmoney.com/

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Bill Murphy – Gold And Silver: Why Does the Banking Cabal Go to All this Effort?

Posted: 19 Jan 2017 07:07 AM PST

TO THE DEALERS' EXPECTATIONS, WILL BE THE FORMATION OF A SIZABLE GOLD FUTURES MARKET. EACH OF THE DEALERS EXPRESS- ED THE BELIEF THAT THE FUTURES MARKET WOULD BE OF SIGNIFICANT PROPORTION AND PHYSICAL TRADING WOULD BE MINISCULE BY COMPARISON. ALSO EXPRESSED WAS THE EXPECTATION THAT LARGE VOLUME FUTURES DEALING WOULD CREATE A HIGHLY VOLATILE MARKET. IN TURN, THE VOLATILE PRICE MOVEMENTS WOULD DIMINISH THE INITIAL DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL HOLDING AND MOST LIKELY NEGATE LONG-TERM HOARDING BY U.S. CITIZENS.

Yet Again: The Most Important Chart on the Planet

Posted: 19 Jan 2017 07:05 AM PST

Tonight I would like to update you on the US dollar as it plays such an important role in so many different markets. Getting the big trend right on the US dollar can help you see what areas are affected by the dollar to invest in. There are alot of areas that have an inverse correlation to the dollar, such as commodities and the precious metals in particular.

Gold’s 50-DMA Breakout

Posted: 19 Jan 2017 07:04 AM PST

In yesterday's alert, we wrote that the decline in the USD Index was likely a temporary phenomenon based on the investor's needless overreaction – the USD reversed and more than erased this week's decline. The metals' reaction was also in tune with our expectations – they reversed. Was this just a one-day phenomenon and will gold rally based on its recent breakout above its 50-day moving average or can we expect more declines in the following days?

Gold Price 50-DMA Breakout

Posted: 19 Jan 2017 05:57 AM PST

In yesterday's alert, we wrote that the decline in the USD Index was likely a temporary phenomenon based on the investor's needless overreaction - the USD reversed and more than erased this week's decline. The metals' reaction was also in tune with our expectations - they reversed. Was this just a one-day phenomenon and will gold rally based on its recent breakout above its 50-day moving average or can we expect more declines in the following days?

Turkey, 'Axis of Gold' and End of US Dollar Hegemony

Posted: 19 Jan 2017 05:51 AM PST

Introduction Buy Gold and Lira, Sell Dollars To End “Economic Sabotage” – PM of Turkey Gold Imports to Turkey Surge 688% In December ‘Tough Turkey’ today Affinity for gold to save the day? Central bank gold demand Personal accumulation Country’s gold reserves Turkey Iran gold conduit Axis of Evil to Axis of Gold Conclusion: Gold as an insurance policy

The Most Important Market Chart on the Planet

Posted: 19 Jan 2017 02:46 AM PST

Today I would like to update you on the US dollar as it plays such an important role in so many different markets. Getting the big trend right on the US dollar can help you see what areas are affected by the dollar to invest in. There are alot of areas that have an inverse correlation to the dollar, such as commodities and the precious metals in particular. Let start with just with just a simple daily line chart that shows the two year sideways trading range with the breakout and the backtest that is currently underway. As you can see this is actually the 2nd backtest to the top rail at the 100 area so there is no question the top rail is hot.
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