Monday, December 26, 2016

Gold World News Flash

Gold World News Flash

Jim’s Mailbox

Posted: 25 Dec 2016 08:36 PM PST

Dear Jim, It seems only the US is growing? Do you really believe that? Check the retail number for December. Gijsbert Groenewegen Aussie Dollar Tanks After China Admits Growth Will Miss 6.5% TargetDecember 23, 2016 With fears mounting over China’s debt load sustainability, and amid yet another liquidity crisis, President Xi Jinping appeared to... Read more »

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America's Relation with Israel under Trump ?

Posted: 25 Dec 2016 08:30 PM PST

Will Donald Trump strengthen our relationship with Israel? The Foundation for Defense of Democracies' Boris Zillberman analyzes the U.N. Security Council's vote to end Israeli settlements. The Financial Armageddon Economic Collapse Blog tracks trends and forecasts , futurists ,...

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Goldman Sachs' 2016 Review (Crossword-Style)

Posted: 25 Dec 2016 06:00 PM PST

2016 was chock-full of surprises, both in markets and in politics.

As Goldman's Allison Nathan explains, the year began with a perfect storm of worries that had become all too familiar already in 2015. Oil prices plunged and fears of faltering growth and a sharp depreciation of China’s currency escalated, driving disruptive sell-offs in credit and other risk assets. Confidence in global growth faltered, particularly after an anemic US GDP report for Q1.

But oh, how the world has changed. Today, the price of crude oil is almost exactly double its January low in the wake of announced production cuts by OPEC and key non-OPEC producers (Russia). We expect WTI oil prices to move higher to a peak of $57.50/bbl in 1H17 as the cuts push the oil market into deficit and whittle down the current large inventory surplus. But we also expect shale producers to respond to the higher prices, implying limited upside from there.

The rebound in oil prices led to a remarkable turnaround in credit markets, with HY Metals & Mining and E&Ps returning 49% and 36%, respectively, YTD; default rates normalizing; and spreads no longer pricing recession risk. We expect a further moderate compression of spreads in 2017 given expectations of a generally positive macro environment, gradual improvement in credit fundamentals, and, of course, our somewhat rosier oil outlook.

And fears about China have generally receded into the background as Chinese policymakers continued an ambitious stimulus program that helped stabilize growth. A more dovish tilt by the Fed in response to the tightening of financial conditions caused by the Q1 sell-off also assuaged market fears. But we warn that China risk is not far from the surface.

Capital outflow pressures have resumed amid the renewed strengthening in the US dollar. And policies that re-ignited growth in the short-term have just increased concerns about the future, particularly as credit growth has climbed. These potentially destabilizing trends merit watching next year, despite our mainline view of orderly currency moves and a continued bumpy deceleration in Chinese growth. (Side note: Meeting growth targets will be paramount next year amid China’s leadership transition.)

It was not long after the market left China, oil, and credit concerns in the dust that political uncertainty took center stage—a place where it has solidly remained since. Brazil had its president impeached amid one of the country’s longest recessions/depressions on record; French primaries established an unexpected presidential candidate in former Prime Minister Fran├žois Fillon; and Italy will enter the new year with an interim government following the resignation of Matteo Renzi.

And we’ve not forgotten about one of the biggest political shocks of the year (decade, century?!): the UK’s vote in favor of Brexit. The now infamous Article 50, which needs to be activated to formally start the UK’s withdrawal process, still has not been triggered, and likely won’t be before March.

Meanwhile, UK and EU priorities for their future relationship remain at odds, leaving market participants closely watching “soft Brexit”/”hard Brexit” swings in the headlines. That said, UK growth has proved remarkably resilient, and assets have held up with the exception of sterling, which is 10% weaker than before the referendum. Next year, we expect a formal start to Brexit talks, a moderation in UK growth, and further declines in sterling as uncertainty over Brexit sinks in.

While it was hard to trump (sorry, we couldn’t resist!) the shock of Brexit, we dare say that Donald Trump defying almost all polls and betting markets to win the US Presidential election did just that. Trump’s cabinet and policy leanings are still being sorted out, but there appears to be potential for significant change ahead, be it in taxes, or environmental policy. There is no question that the policies of the new administration and their market implications will be Top of Mind throughout 2017.

The unexpected election outcome also super-charged the narrative around two themes already in train: the global trade slowdown and reflation. Trump’s protectionist rhetoric—and the considerable executive power he will have on trade policy—do not bode well for global trade growth, which had already slowed considerably in recent years, or for some multilateral trade deals on the table (think the Trans-Pacific Partnership or TPP). Although we are keeping an eye on potential protectionist measures (a particular risk for EM Asia and Mexico, but also a likely drag on US growth), we otherwise see signs of a moderate improvement in trade ahead. Key to watch: how countries respond to the apparent shelving of the TPP (e.g., bilateral vs. multi-lateral trade talks).

On reflation, we expect fiscal expansion and some further tightening in the labor market to sustain inflationary momentum in the US alongside moderately stronger growth, with US 10-year yields expected to end 2017 at 2.75%. This should be good news for equity markets at first: We expect the S&P 500 to rise to 2400 through 1Q2017, but then see the index settling to 2300 by year-end as rates rise further and investors recalibrate their policy outlooks. We still caution that equities are vulnerable should rates move too much, too fast, given stretched valuations following years of exceptionally low rates.

Lastly, despite recent market optimism about fiscal expansion providing more stimulus, central bank policy will never be too far from investors’ minds next year. (And let’s not forget that ECB and BOJ asset purchases in fact enable more fiscal spend, so the lines between monetary and fiscal policy continue to blur.) We expect an acceleration of divergence as the Fed follows last week’s hike with three more in 2017 while the ECB and BOJ continue their asset purchases under new and apparently more sustainable parameters.

Between this divergence, Trump, China, and a number of important European elections, 2017 is sure to be yet another interesting year for markets.

We wish you a happy, healthy, and prosperous New Year.

*  *  *

While you're relaxing on the sofa, full of food, and wine,  here's Goldman's year-end crossword...


Solution here.

Gerald Celente: Globalists Are Going To Collapse World Economy

Posted: 25 Dec 2016 04:00 PM PST

 Gerald Celente gives Infowars his dire predictions for the world economy after the globalists were shocked by Brexit. The Financial Armageddon Economic Collapse Blog tracks trends and forecasts , futurists , visionaries , free investigative journalists , researchers , Whistelblowers ,...

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Bank Of Canada Lays Out In YouTube Clip How The Economy Could Tank

Posted: 25 Dec 2016 03:02 PM PST

As MacLean's Jason Kirby points out, the Bank has taken to YouTube to warn Canadians about the dangers of too much debt and unrealistic house price expectations. He wonders, however, whether anyone will listen as one after another real estate bubble form in Canada, a nation whose household debt ratio has never been higher.

As BMO pointed out, when the latest household debt ratio data was released, the upward trend in household debt goes back for the 26 years for which it has records and is showing no signs of slowing down.

"While it looks as though the Vancouver housing market is cooling after the foreign buyers' tax was implemented, the Toronto market remains very strong, and others are showing signs of improving as well," said BMO senior economist Benjamin Reitzes.

Meanwhile, none other than Canada's central bank has ramped up its warnings about heavily indebted households and the unreasonable expectations driving the housing market, yet all indications are that Canadians have stuffed cotton in their ears.

In Toronto, for instance, house prices are up nearly 15 per cent since the summer when Bank of Canada governor Stephen Poloz warned that price gains in the city were "difficult to match up with any definition of fundamentals that you could point to." In the more than 15 years that the Teranet-National Bank House Price Index has tracked property prices in the city, there's never been a six-month period when prices rose that fast. Meanwhile, the latest figures released by Statistics Canada showed the household debt-to-income ratio broke yet another record in the third quarter.

Now Canada's central bank is trying a different platform to get its message across: YouTube.

In a video posted Monday on YouTube, in conjunction with the release of the Bank's semi-annual financial system review last Thursday, Bank of Canada senior policy adviser Joshua Slive sketches out how Canada's dangerous brew of debt and inflated house prices could combine to devastate the economy.

Here's the scenario that worries the Bank.

1. As the Bank has pointed out already, households are highly indebted and house prices are rising at an unsustainable rate, though as Slive observes, people can often cope with these vulnerabilities for an extended period.

2. That is, until an economic shock triggers a negative chain of events. For instance, a severe recession would lead to "a sharp increase" in unemployment.

3. A lot of households, especially those carrying the heaviest debt loads, would have trouble meeting their debt payments. As a result, some households would start to default on their loans, and in turn, banks and trust companies would foreclose and try to sell those houses.

4. At the same time, with the economy slowing, new buyers would delay house purchases until the economy improved. Given the challenges already facing the economy, this could "cause a large drop in house prices."

5. If house prices fell, it would push down household wealth, which has received a huge boost from the housing boom, and that could curtail consumer spending, which itself has become a primary driver of growth. The added stress on the financial sector would also weigh on the economy as lenders cut back on making new loans. Slive doesn't use the term, but what he's talking about is a credit crunch.

There is good news, Slive says. Stress tests show Canada's big banks will be just fine even with a large drop in house prices (stress tests also showed that both Belgian Dexia and Spanish Bankia were perfectly solvent just months prior to their respectively failrues). It's also important to note that the Bank, in its financial system review, said there is a "low probability" of a sharp correction in house prices. But there's no getting around the immense damage such a scenario would have on the economy.

The video is a break from regular fare on the Bank of Canada's YouTube channel, which is largely made up of speeches by top Bank officials. And even if Slive's delivery is trademark central-banker dry, the message is stark, and shows the Bank is desperate for Canadians to heed its warnings on debt and rising house prices.

If there's one quibble to be made, it's with the initial domino that the Bank sees setting everything in motion—a severe recession leading to job losses. Since the U.S. housing bubble popped and that country went into its long, dark funk, a chicken-versus-egg debate has raged over whether the housing collapse triggered the U.S. recession, or whether something else, like soaring oil prices, brought on the recession and turned the housing slowdown into a total collapse. What's beyond debate is that America's housing market reached its frothiest in mid-2006, and then began its decline, one-and-a-half years before the recession began.

Whatever the case, the Bank's video should be another wake-up call for Canadians, but "not that anyone's listening" as Jason Kirby laments.

Here's the video in full.

The Scariest Forecast For Treasury Bulls

Posted: 25 Dec 2016 02:13 PM PST

With Trump's border tax adjustment looking increasingly likely, the stock market - as JPM has warned in recent days - is starting to fade the relentless Trumponomic, hope-driven rally since election day instead focusing on the details inside the president-elect's proposed plans. And, as explained earlier in the week, if the border tax proposal is implemented, economists at Deutsche Bank estimate the tax could send inflation far above the Federal Reserve's 2% target and drive a 15% surge in the dollar.

While this would be bad for stocks, as a 5% increase in the dollar translates into about a 3% negative earnings revision for the S&P 500 all else equal, a surge in inflation would also wreak havoc on bond prices, and send interest rates surging, at least initially, before they subsquently plunge as a result of a rapidly tightening, deep "behind the curve" Fed unleashes a curve inversion and recessionary stagflation becomes the bogeyman du jour.

There's more.

In a separate report by Deutsche, the bank looks at future prospects for rates and concludes that "tightening monetary policy, higher breakevens, and declining central bank purchases relative to net supply should all contribute to significant bearish steepening during 2017."

In its analysis of future bond rates, Deutsche Bank says that the biggest risk is that when looking at the menu of "threats" presented by the Trump stimulus, "there is a significant risk that if the Fed decides to aggressively lean against higher inflation expectations, the entire "regime shift" might stall. That is, higher wages and inflation expectations are a prerequisite to the substitution of capital for labor, which is in itself necessary for more rapid productivity growth and hence higher potential growth and sustainably higher levels of r*."

And then the focus shifts so that whatever degree of accommodation is warranted, there will be the push to rebalance away from rising short rates to shrinking the Fed's balance sheet, in other words, the Fed begins real normalization.

In DB's model, the net effect of ending reinvestment of SOMA portfolio run-off, some asset sales, and an ECB taper is almost 200 bps. This would allows 10s to move well over 4 percent in 2018. That although roll offs are significant - maybe $50 billion/month – in order to get the balance sheet down from more than $4 trillion to say $1 trillion before the 4-year presidential term is over would still require asset sales of  approximately $50 billion.

Assuming Deutsche Bank is correct, the result would be the scariest forecast bond bulls have seen in years: a 10-Year TSY whose yield fades all gains attained during the past decade, in the span of just two short years, hitting 4.5% in early 2019. The adverse implications from such a fast, steep move on all asset classes, not just bonds, would be devastating.

Will this forecast come true? Readers can make their own determinations upon reading DB's assumptions:

Formally, DB's model of 10s has three explanatory variables. The main driver is the ratio global QE purchases to net supply in nominal terms with a nine-month lead, i.e., the market is forward looking. Global QE and supply figures are from the US, Europe and Japan. The other two variables in the model are Fed funds and the 2s/funds spread. The model is estimated between October 2006 and September 2016.

These assumptions are summarized in the following three scenarios:

  1. Base case: Trump's fiscal stimulus, amounting to about $530 billion per year for ten years.
  2. Base case + ECB taper + Fed portfolio rolloff. In this case, 10s are about +70bp higher in yields than in the base case.
  3. Base case + ECB taper + Fed portfolio rolloff + Fed asset sales. 10s are about +100bp higher in yields than in base case.

The assumptions in the scenarios are:

  • President-elect Trump's stimulus package, scored by the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget adds $5.3 trillion to the deficit over the next decade. This averages to $530 billion per year, starting in July 2017, around the time the plan is expected to be passed by Congress.
  • The ECB tapers QE purchases by ½ in 2018, and stops all purchases in 2019.
  • Fed balance sheet reductions: The Fed stops reinvestments of maturing Treasuries and MBS pre-payments starting Q4 2017. Asset sales at $250 billion in 2018 and $500 billion in 2019.
  • The Fed funds target range rises to 2.50%-2.75% by year end 2019, with the 2s/funds spread at 60bp.


Needless to say, DB is convinced that there is a lot of pain coming for the bond market. To wit:

"Our strongest market view, therefore, is that investors should be short duration. Rates are going higher. The curve should end up steeper but this Fed's initial reaction as per this week can confuse curve dynamics. Real rates should not rise more than breakevens. In the short run dollar strength should persist."

We are far less confident, especially if indeed the border tax is implemented, sending the dollar soaring, US exports, and GDP crashing, and corporate profits plunge. In short: if Trump unleashes a recession by implementing a policy which is meant to eliminate the US trade deficit.

In such a case, forget steepeners: buy every flattener you can get your hands on, and then use leverage, because before you know it the 2s30s will be back in the double digits, then single, and then, not too long from now, negative.

Whether that is the catalyst that will kick off QE4 or whatever the current number is, we don't know, but by that point China will be spitting up blood as a result of a historic collapse in the Yuan, hundreds of billions in monthly outflows and a paralyzed, and crushed financial system. Ironically, in light of the devastation that may soon befall China should Trump's policies pan out, the US - recession or not - may still be the "cleanest dirty shirt" in a world where things are about to get very messy.

Capitol in Chaos...Trump Danger Rises -- Charles R. Smith

Posted: 25 Dec 2016 12:00 PM PST

Jeff Rense & Charles R. Smith - Capitol in Chaos...Trump Danger Rises Clip from December 21, 2016 - guest Charles R. Smith on the Jeff Rense Program. The Financial Armageddon Economic Collapse Blog tracks trends and forecasts , futurists , visionaries , free investigative...

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The War Video They Don't Want You To See!! 2016

Posted: 25 Dec 2016 10:50 AM PST

The War Video They Don't Want You To See!! 2016 The Financial Armageddon Economic Collapse Blog tracks trends and forecasts , futurists , visionaries , free investigative journalists , researchers , Whistelblowers , truthers and many more

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Det. Jim Rothstein - Human Trafficking Expert

Posted: 25 Dec 2016 09:39 AM PST

Jeff Rense & Det. Jim Rothstein - Human Trafficking Expert Clip from December 15, 2016 - guest Det. Jim Rothstein on the Jeff Rense Program. The Financial Armageddon Economic Collapse Blog tracks trends and forecasts , futurists , visionaries , free investigative journalists ,...

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Anonymous: The Greatest Hypnotic Distraction Is Happening Right Now In US

Posted: 25 Dec 2016 07:30 AM PST

Anonymous Message 2017 - You have to watch this! Something big is going to happen! This is the latest Anonymous message to the US citizens. The Financial Armageddon Economic Collapse Blog tracks trends and forecasts , futurists , visionaries , free investigative journalists ,...

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Koos Jansen: China's gold market means to internationalize its currency

Posted: 25 Dec 2016 07:00 AM PST

9:59a ET Sunday, December 25, 2016

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Gold researcher Koos Jansen reiterates today that an objective of the Shanghai Gold Exchange is to internationalize China's currency, and he publishes an English translation of a speech given last month in Beijing by the deputy general manager of the exchange, Teng Wei, who emphasized that point. Jansen's commentary is headlined "China's Gold Market Opens Up to Boost RMB Internationalization" and it's posted at Bullion Star here:

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.


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Visit us at:

Help keep GATA going

GATA is a civil rights and educational organization based in the United States and tax-exempt under the U.S. Internal Revenue Code. Its e-mail dispatches are free, and you can subscribe at:

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Chinese themselves prefer U.S. dollar over yuan

Posted: 25 Dec 2016 06:49 AM PST

China's Love Affair with the Dollar

Despite the Internationalization of the Yuan, the U.S. Dollar Remains China's Currency of Choice.

By Salvatore Babones
Al-Jazeera, Doha, Qatar
Saturday, December 24, 2016

When former Chinese Politburo member Zhou Yongkang was arrested in 2014 on corruption charges, the scale of his ill-gotten gains was astounding, totalling some $16 billion. When sums that large are involved, most of the assets have to be invested in financial instruments and real estate.

But the list of physical currency found in his homes is revealing: 152.7 million Chinese yuan (valued at the time at $24.5 million), 662,000 Euros, 10,000 British pounds, 55,000 Swiss francs -- and $275 million.

The former head of China's internal security services and one of the 10 most powerful men in China apparently preferred to keep his "petty cash" mainly in U.S. dollars.

He's not alone. China lost around $1 trillion to capital flight in 2015, before clamping down hard at the beginning of 2016. Much of this money leaves China via fake invoicing in Hong Kong, where the local currency is pegged to the U.S. dollar. Illicit outflows are also facilitated by casinos in the Philippines, South Korea, and on remote Pacific islands, all of which operate primarily in dollars.

Predictions of the dollar's demise and eventual replacement by the Chinese yuan, are a staple of global economic punditry, but they have little basis in reality. Of course China has become an important component of the global economy, accounting for more than 15 percent of global gross domestic product. But when Chinese people themselves prefer to hold dollars, there is little chance that the Chinese yuan will ever replace the US dollar as the world's key currency. ...

... For the remainder of the report:


Market Analyst Fabrice Taylor Expects K92 Shares to Rise
as Company Commences Gold Production and Gains Cash Flow

Interviewed on Business News Network in Canada, market analyst and financial letter writer Fabrice Taylor said shares of K92 Mining (TSXV:KNT) are likely to rise, even amid declining gold prices, because the company has begun producing gold at its mine in Papua New Guinea:

Taylor cited the company's announcement here:

Help keep GATA going

GATA is a civil rights and educational organization based in the United States and tax-exempt under the U.S. Internal Revenue Code. Its e-mail dispatches are free, and you can subscribe at:

To contribute to GATA, please visit:

Breaking News And Best Of The Web

Posted: 25 Dec 2016 01:37 AM PST

US stocks, interest rates, dollar at recent and/or record highs. Worries about valuation are spreading. US housing starts jump in November, auto sales turn down, numerous factories scaling back. Italian banks restructuring and raising capital as government begins bail-out. Deutsche Bank agrees to big fine for mortgage fraud. Terrorist attacks in Turkey and Germany.   […]

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US: Five Must Gold See Charts – Gold Miners Are “Running Out” of Gold

Posted: 24 Dec 2016 06:33 AM PST

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