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Tuesday, November 8, 2016

Gold World News Flash

Gold World News Flash


Dollar inches lower as world markets cautiously optimistic of Clinton winning White House race

Posted: 08 Nov 2016 01:23 AM PST

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After The Election, This Is What The Market Will Obsess Over

Posted: 08 Nov 2016 12:00 AM PST

This "year of fear" won't end with the election, warns Bloomberg's Mark Cudmore, the Chinese yuan will be the next focus for the panic mongers after the U.S. election. At least until they turn to the Italian referendum and the expected December Fed rate rise.

After several months of stability, the yuan is finally breaking down again versus the China Foreign Exchange Trade System basket.

This means that if the dollar jumps post-election, USD/CNY will smash through 6.80 and we could be challenging the post-financial crisis fixing level around 6.8270.

Since investors seem to be inordinately focused on USD/CNY, this will generate much excitement and prompt renewed fears about uncontrollable capital outflows from China.

Interestingly, this most recent leg of accelerated yuan weakness since mid-October has coincided with Chinese officials increasing property curbs. Perhaps this has intensified the motivation to get money out of the country. Hong Kong’s surprise move to increase stamp duty came amid renewed interest from mainland buyers that Bloomberg Intelligence said could herald further capital outflows.

However, any excessive panic will likely be unwarranted.

The PBOC may be letting the currency weaken again after a several months hiatus, but the pressures are significantly reduced since the January panic.

 

For a start, the yuan has already fallen about 7% this year. That’s contributed to the economy re-accelerating, which means hard-landing fears have receded.

 

The third-quarter current account surplus came in above estimates on Friday. The October trade surplus bounced (but disappointed).

 

Finally, something else that has been largely overlooked is that China recently relaxed the rules around foreign direct investment.

 

FDI has been subdued for years due to the bureaucracy and hurdles involved but, as of October 1, government approval is no longer needed if investing in a non-restricted industry.

So, while CNY is likely to become the focus of attention for doom-mongers after Wednesday, it’ll probably prove to be less of an issue than many fear. Just like all the other scares hyped already in 2016.

Credibility – Confidence – Chaos and GOLD!

Posted: 07 Nov 2016 11:01 PM PST

The corrupted Republican and Democratic parties in the U.S. have put forth two of the most despised candidates – ever. One candidate is probably more corrupt than LBJ and both parties are rapidly...

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Make-or-Break: 5 Great Investment Ideas For 2017

Posted: 07 Nov 2016 09:53 PM PST

Market conditions are challenging, and investors are facing a hard time with lots of volatility over the course of the last 24 months. Gold, for instance, rallied strongly this year until right after the Brexit. Likewise, crude oil doubled in price this year after it went through its steepest collapse in history. What can we expect next year? In other words, are which investment ideas do we see for 2017? To answer that question, we identified 5 assets with an amazing chart setup.

Islamic finance nears final standard for gold-based products

Posted: 07 Nov 2016 09:17 PM PST

By Bernardo Vizcaino
Reuters
Tuesday, November 8, 2017

Islamic scholars are finalizing work on a sharia standard for gold-based products set to become effective before the end of the year and possibly help kick-start a new wave of product development in Islamic finance.

Gold has been treated mostly as a currency in Islamic finance, limiting its use to spot transactions, while consumer demand for gold in the Middle East has actually fallen in recent years.

Guidance from the Bahrain-based Accounting and Auditing Organization for Islamic Financial Institutions could address some of the reasons behind the lack of gold products in the industry and the muted demand from the region.

The organization plans to issue its sharia standard on gold and its trading controls in coming weeks, Mohd Daud Bakar, founder and executive chairman of Amanie Group, said at an annual conference held by the organization this week in Manama, Bahrain.

"The sharia standard on gold from my perspective is a game changer given the market conditions, given the preconceived idea that we have -- even among the scholars themselves -- that gold is very restricted." ...

... For the remainder of the report:

http://www.reuters.com/article/islamic-finance-gold-idUSL8N1D900W



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Ron Paul Endorses the Only Congressional Candidate
Who Is Campaigning on Returning to the Gold Standard

Former U.S. representative, presidential candidate, and chairman of the House Subcommittee on Monetary Policy, fiat money's fiercest foe, Ron Paul, has endorsed Daria Novak, the Republican candidate for the U.S. House of Representatives in Connecticut's 2nd District.

Paul said: "Daria Novak will be a forceful advocate for limited, constitutional government, individual liberty, and sound money on Capitol Hill. I am pleased to endorse her candidacy."

Novak also has been endorsed by former presidential candidate and gold standard proponent Steve Forbes and by the New York Sun, among other friends of sound money. Novak also been endorsed by gold standard and sound-money advocates George Gilder, Lawrence Kudlow, Jimmy Kemp (Jack's son), and Jeffrey Bell. Forbes called Novak a "prosperity heroine."

Contribute to Novak's campaign $500, $250, $100, $50, or whatever you can afford of the fiat money that is eroding in your checkbook. As the Sun wrote, "She vows to crusade" on the gold standard "as key to getting job creation, economic security, and upward mobility back at a sizzling rate."

To donate to Novak's campaign, please visit:

http://novakforcongress.org/donate/

Novak will personally thank all contributors.

Give Daria your generous backing to put a voice for gold in Congress.

This message was authorized by Daria Novak for Congress.



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The Yen is Expected To Benefit From US Dollar Uncertainty Over Election Week 

Posted: 07 Nov 2016 09:16 PM PST

Adam Teen writes: The US dollar enters a crucial week against its rivals, including the Japanese Yen, as the volatile sessions are expected because the USA is officially going into polls on Tuesday 8th. Strong economic performance data released over the past week did not quite convince investors that it is safe to hold the green buck over the next few sessions.

Silver's Roadmap

Posted: 07 Nov 2016 09:11 PM PST

History tends to repeat itself and the more similarities to a past pattern we have, the bigger likelihood that it will continue to repeat. The day-to-date price swings of silver may seem erratic, but from a broader point of view, they are repeating – to a great extent – the same pattern that we saw in the past. The most interesting thing is what followed that past pattern.

If You Listen to This and Still Vote Hillary; You Are Just As Guilty as She Is!

Posted: 07 Nov 2016 08:00 PM PST

 Is voting for Hillary Aiding and Abetting?! Real Democrats are turning away from Hillary because they know she is opposed to their interests. Are you smart enough to say NO to Hillary on Tuesday? The Financial Armageddon Economic Collapse Blog tracks trends and forecasts ,...

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Trading Tomorrow's Main Event: "Keep It Simple" And Watch This Indicator

Posted: 07 Nov 2016 07:05 PM PST

"Close your books. Take out a piece of paper. It’s time for a pop quiz," says Bloomberg's Richard Breslow. "What were the market-moving news items from last week?"

Amazing that it takes some work to remember that there were four big central bank meetings, a raft of PMIs, let alone a U.S. non-farm payroll report. When we look back, probably the only thing we’ll remember was the Article 50 decision in the U.K. And maybe one tracker poll for the bonus question.
I’ll bet this week will be easier for market historians to pinpoint on the economic time line. It’s rarely the regularly scheduled events that lastingly move the needle. No matter how much we build up the expectation.

And then we can begin the latest test of all the “what to expect next year” theories. Word of caution, the shelf-life of these fun but mostly futile exercises gets shorter every year. And the cost of being wrong bigger. No death by a thousand cuts here. Let’s blow them out in January and get on with the thrust and parry of trading revolving themes.

One interesting event from last week, is that we saw futures pricing of a December rate-hike creep up; at the same time it was wilting for the year ahead.

Rising risk premium? Safe bet. Clever Fed messaging on low and slow? Well, we’ve had a one-two on the “running hot” question from Yellen and Fischer. Actually, a lot more hedging going on than we credited.

Rate expectations for next year are a big deal and not just for STIRT traders. The dollar will care and, by extension, commodities (read oil). The yield curve will bend to it.

Coming out of tomorrow, watch where 2017 futures reprice. It will help decide how aggressively you might consider chasing or fading the initial reactions.

If you’re going to trade the event. Keep it as simple as possible. We saw, from last week through this morning, how traders will likely react depending on the outcome. Down the road will be a chance to re-evaluate the prospects for global trade, geopolitics and latest forecast meme driving markets over the course of the year.

Anonymous: Message to The Citizens of The World

Posted: 07 Nov 2016 07:00 PM PST

Anonymous: Message to The Citizens of The World We Are Anonymous. We Are Legion. We Can Forgive. We Shall Never Forget. Expect Us. The Financial Armageddon Economic Collapse Blog tracks trends and forecasts , futurists , visionaries , free investigative journalists , researchers ,...

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Chinese Capital Outflows Send FX Reserves To Lowest Since 2011

Posted: 07 Nov 2016 06:38 PM PST

Overnight, China reported that the PBOC's FX reserves fell another US$46bn to US$3.121 trillion in October as the central banks struggled to offset the impact of accelerating capital outflows, a bigger drop than the consensus estimate of US$34bn, triple the official September decline of US$19bn (recall that according to Goldman, the true FX outflow in recent months has been far greater), and the biggest drop since January. The October decline brought China's total reserves the lowest amount since 2011.

As we have shown previously, a separate dataset called "PBOC's FX position", which shows the amount of PBOC's FX assets at book value and is usually released around the middle of the month, should provide a cross-check on PBOC's FX sales net of valuation effects.

As Bloomberg notes, the data come amid a period of renewed weakness for China's currency. The yuan fell 1.53 percent last month, the most since a devaluation in August last year that shook investor confidence and ignited global market turmoil. Policy makers were suspected of propping up the exchange rate in the weeks leading up to a Group of 20 meeting in September and before the yuan's entry into the International Monetary Fund's reserves on Oct. 1 - and then reducing support after exports plunged the most in seven months. The currency fell to a six-year low of 6.7856 a dollar on Oct. 28.

The chart below which correlated China's outflows with the value of the Yuan suggests that either the currency is temporarily undervalued, or that the real amount of Chinese reserves, which may be unreported by the PBOC to prevent an even greater retail outflow scramble, may be as much as half a trillion dollars less than what has been officially reported.

And with Chinese capital outflows speculated as soon becoming the biggest risk factor to global financial stability, in a repeat of late 2015, once the chaos surrounding the US presidential election is over, below are some economist reactions to the reported number:

  • "The yuan was sprinting all the way to approach 6.8 in October, which may have prompted the PBOC to sell some reserves to stabilize the market," said Gao Qi, a Singapore-based foreign-exchange strategist at Scotiabank. "Capital outflows will continue, the only questions is how fast, and that depends on the dollar's move."
  • "Capital outflow pressures will be sustained at least for the coming months," said Frederik Kunze, chief China economist at Norddeutsche Landesbank in Hanover, Germany. "Growing anxiety with regard to the soundness of the Chinese financial markets and the fear of a property bubble have to be seen in this context."
  • "The number indicates relatively light intervention by PBOC during the month," said Ding Shuang, head of Greater China economic research at Standard Chartered Plc. in Hong Kong. Most of the drop comes from valuation effects, he said.
  • Faster yuan depreciation against the dollar, higher interbank interest rates, and PBOC liquidity injections via open market operations "pointed to continued capital outflows in October," said Robin Xing, an economist at Morgan Stanley in Hong Kong.

Should Clinton win tomorrow, and push the USD even higher on expectations of a December Fed rate hike, many strategists believe that the next stop for the Yuan will be to drop to a level somewhere in the vicinity of USDCNY 7.00.

And speaking of tomorrow's election outcome, and how it may impact Chinese risk assets, here is Bank of America with how 4 distinct election scenarios can impact Chinese equities:

  • Best scenario for China equities: Clinton win/split congress

If Hillary Clinton wins with a split Congress, we suggest buying short-duration HSCEI calls to position for a potential relief rally (likely to be brief); if it's a Clinton sweep, buying environmental sectors and exporters, selling Rmb-sensitive sectors such as property, financials and commodities; if Donald Trump win/split Congress, buying One-Belt One-Road (OBOR) sectors, selling Chinese exporters to the US and Rmb-sensitive sectors; if a Trump sweep, buying HSCEI puts and domestic service sectors, selling environmental, Rmb-sensitive sectors and exporters in general; whoever wins, buying defense stocks as regional tension rises

  • Polls say Clinton win/split Congress most likely

For more details, please see US Election: four scenarios, four lists by Savita Subramanian on Oct 28. This is arguably the best outcome for China equities in our view because the status quo may largely be maintained and the absence of a clean-sweep may mean only moderate upward pressure on USD. In addition, as the US election uncertainty is largely removed, risky assets, including China equities, may stage a relief rally.

  • A Clinton sweep could hurt China equities

As David Woo argued, a clean sweep, either by Clinton or Trump, would be bullish for the USD. Such strength would come at a particularly sensitive time for Rmb devaluation expectations, thus, may trigger significant capital outflow from China and put significant pressure on Rmb, by our assessment. Separately, given the Democrats' emphasis on environmental issues and the global nature of such issues, we expect related sectors in China to benefit as well.

  • A Trump win/split Congress: impact on Rmb more uncertain

On the campaign trail, Trump wanted to label China as a currency manipulator & impose a 45% tariff on Chinese exports (Helen Qiao, Asia: trade tensions either way, Oct 24). This is behind our strategy-level call to sell Chinese exporters with heavy US exposure (Table 1, stocks with the highest US revenue ratio). To counter, China may speed up its OBOR program (One Belt & One Road, Great Expectations, 16 Mar, 2015). The impact on Rmb/USD rate is more uncertain - the Chinese govt may strengthen the soft peg to ease the trade tension or it may allow more flexibility on the exchange rate to stand up to the US or to reduce the chance of being labeled a manipulator. On balance, we think the latter is more likely due to the constraint imposed by capital outflow.

  • A Trump sweep is the worst scenario for China stocks

In our view, a Trump sweep may mean a very strong USD, a much reduced risk appetite and a major sell-off of offshore China stocks by global investors. It could also blunt globalization as it loses its biggest champion, hence our selling of exporters broadly (Table 6 in our 2016 Year-Ahead lists the top exporters). If China's growth turns inward, we expect domestically-oriented sectors, especially services, to benefit the most.

The Silver Lining to the 2016 Election | Jeff Deist

Posted: 07 Nov 2016 06:30 PM PST

 Recorded at "The End of Politics"—the Dallas-Ft. Worth Mises Circle—on 5 November 2016. America appears more divided than any time since the Vietnam War, by race, class, faith, sex, sexuality, education, political party, and zip code. And thanks to social media, we are utterly aware of those...

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Gold Price and Silver Price didn't Break their Uptrend Lines

Posted: 07 Nov 2016 06:14 PM PST

7-Nov-16PriceChange% Change
Gold Price, $/oz1,278.30-25.00-1.92%
Silver Price, $/oz18.12-0.22-1.19%
Gold/Silver Ratio70.531-0.525-0.74%
Silver/Gold Ratio0.01420.00010.74%
Platinum Price998.60-3.10-0.31%
Palladium Price655.8528.504.54%
S&P 5002,131.5246.342.22%
Dow18,259.60371.322.08%
Dow in GOLD $s295.2811.554.07%
Dow in GOLD oz14.280.564.07%
Dow in SILVER oz1,007.4832.223.30%
US Dollar Index97.790.710.73%
IMPORTANT NOTE: The following are wholesale, not retail, prices. To figure our retail selling price, multiply the "ask" price by 1.035. To figure our retail buying price, multiple the "bid" price by 0.97. Lower commissions apply to larger orders, higher commissions to very small orders.
SPOT GOLD:1,280.80


GOLDFine Tr.Oz.BIDASK$/oz
American Eagle1.001,317.941,323.711,323.71
1/2 AE0.50652.70675.621,351.24
1/4 AE0.25329.55344.221,376.86
1/10 AE0.10134.38140.251,402.48
Aust. 100 corona0.981,249.161,258.161,283.58
British sovereign0.24303.76316.761,345.63
French 20 franc0.19236.73240.731,289.42
Krugerrand1.001,297.451,307.451,307.45
Maple Leaf1.001,290.801,304.801,304.80
1/2 Maple Leaf0.50736.46672.421,344.84
1/4 Maple Leaf0.25326.60342.611,370.46
1/10 Maple Leaf0.10135.76139.611,396.07
Mexican 50 peso1.211,536.411,547.411,283.41
.9999 bar1.001,285.281,292.801,292.80
SPOT SILVER:18.18


SILVERFine Tr.Oz.BIDASK$/oz
VG+ Morgan $B4 19050.7725.0027.0035.29
VG+ Peace dollar0.7720.0022.0028.76
90% silver coin bags0.7213,495.6313,781.6319.28
US 40% silver 1/2s0.305,169.885,319.8818.03
100 oz .999 bar100.001,797.501,832.5018.33
10 oz .999 bar10.00183.25188.2518.83
1 oz .999 round1.0017.9818.4818.48
Am Eagle, 200 oz Min1.0019.6821.1821.18
SPOT PLATINUM:998.60


PLATINUMFine Tr.Oz.BIDASK$/oz
Plat. Platypus1.001,013.601,043.601,043.60

A reader from Wales castigated me -- justly -- for omitting the Welsh from the list of fractious folks in the UK. Worse yet, they all voted to leave the EU, while the Scots voted to stay. I repent in dust and ashes and as penance will sing "Men of Harlech" six times. "Cambria will not yield!"

Markets were roiled by the FBI commissar Comey's announcement that 11 days after he had put Hellery under suspicion of high crimes & misdemeanors again, she hadn't done anything wrong after all. FBI must have cannibalized every temp employment agency on the east coast to hire enough people to read all those emails in 8 days. Amazing.
Clearly beneath the clalm surface of these muddy waters the barracudas are tearing & eating each other, the pro-Hellery faction against the anti-Hellery faction. Kid yourself not, her legal troubles have not ended. And in spite of all the news & rumors of election fraud, I still expect Trump to win.

I curled my lips in ironic & scornful (yes, I succumb to scorn when provoked) laughter when the stock market and dollar rose on the news that Hellery would not be arrested & jailed this week. What are these frantic buyers missing? The economic cake is already baked. Central banks have suppressed interest rates for 36 years, and for the last 8 years jettisoned every trace of common sense with QE, ZIRP, & NIRP (burp!). Central banks have reached the limits of their existence and the world's economy is choking on them. Whether Hellery or Trump wins, these problems will remain. That means stocks will decline for a long time while silver & gold will keep on rising.

Course I don't know bacon from fat meat. I'm jes' a natural durn fool from Tennessee. I don't know a security clearance from a valve clearance, & ain't NOBODY lining up to pay me millions of bucks for influence. Closest I ever got to influence was one time I got the influenza.

Stock indices gainsayed each other today. S&P500 rose to pierce -- barely -- its 20 day moving average. Chart's here, http://schrts.co/vtdPMb

On the other hand the Dow rose through its 20 & 50 DMA, and the downtrend line running hand in hand with the 50 DMA. Chart: http://schrts.co/Q6KUW0 That might mark the limit of the move. Whoops, almost forgot: Dow rose 371.32 (2.08%) to 18,259.60 while the S&P500 rose 46.34 or 2.22% to 2,131.52.

Bottom line: countertrend rally. These same gnat brains will sell just as hard tomorrow if Trump wins. Either way, stocks are locked in an intermediate downtrend.

US dollar index also staged a countertrend rally on the cockamamie notion that Hellery the big-spending socialist would be better for the dollar than Trump, the small-spending socialist. Chart's here http://schrts.co/OkJ5UT

As with stocks, there's no sign yet that the dollar has changed its trend to skyward.
Gold took it on the chin, losing $25 (1.9%) to close at $1,278.30 on Comex. Silver fell not as much, only 21.8¢ or 1.2% to 1812.4¢.

How badly was gold wounded? Nothing a band aid couldn't fix. Gold Price fell nearly to its 200 DMA (1,276.70) but remained above the trend line climbing out of October's lows. See for yourself, http://schrts.co/pbxEDM

Silver's fall stopped cold at 1800¢, suggesting loads of buyers are happy to acquire silver there. Chart's right here, http://schrts.co/o96FnV

Silver didn't break its uptrend line, either.. Didn't get near the 200 DMA (1749¢).
All this was expected since a cyclical low was due this week. Now you have seen it. Tomorrow will be quiet, until it becomes apparent which juvenile delinquent will win. Don't miss this: whatever the election's immediate effect, long term it won't change much, except the interior decorator at the White House.

One more Susan story, about how we met:

I had an apartment with two college buddies & had heard about Susan, who was running with the same crowd of folks I ran with. I had broken up with a girl I had dated for three or four years, and was finished with her forever.

We had a party at our apartment, and the first time I ever saw Susan, she was highstepping with those long legs across people sitting on the floor. She was wearing white pants and a white sweater with navy blue zig-zag stripes about 2 inches wide. First time I saw her I thought, "THAT is what I have been looking for! THAT is what I have to have."


That was late in April. At first she refused to go out with me because she thought I was engaged. I squelched that misconception speedily and we had our first date May 5 or May 6, 1967. At 20 years old, we decided to get married that night, which I'm sure horrified & terrified Susan's wonderful mother. For reasons still not clear to me, her father and mother agreed. We got married 16 December 1967 & I never looked back. I know when I've hit the jackpot.

Argentum et aurum comparanda sunt —
Silver and gold must be bought.
— Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
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Anonymous: Have The Emails Been Recovered ?

Posted: 07 Nov 2016 05:30 PM PST

 Clinton or Trump, it's not who is best, It's who is less worse. The Financial Armageddon Economic Collapse Blog tracks trends and forecasts , futurists , visionaries , free investigative journalists , researchers , Whistelblowers , truthers and many more

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OBAMA LOST CONTROL The New Video Of Barack Obama Going INSANE Wait Till You See Why

Posted: 07 Nov 2016 05:00 PM PST

Obama Lise's control Obama Loses His Cool at Supporters at North Carolina rally OBAMA LOST CONTROL The New Video Of Barack Obama Going INSANE Wait Till You See Why The Financial Armageddon Economic Collapse Blog tracks trends and forecasts , futurists , visionaries , free investigative...

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Hugo Salinas Price: A reversal in the trend of international reserves

Posted: 07 Nov 2016 04:52 PM PST

7:53p ET Monday, November 7, 2016

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Hugo Salinas Price, president of the Mexican Civic Association for Silver, reports today that international currency reserves held by central banks continue to decline, likely signaling a deflationary trend, as the developing world sells reserve-currency bonds for cash. This, Salinas Price writes, likely will provoke more money creation by reserve-currency-issuing central banks to finance more government spending in an attempt to avert deflation. Salinas Price's report is headlined "A Reversal in the Trend of International Reserves" and it's posted at the association's internet site, Plata.com, here:

http://plata.com.mx/mplata/articulos/articlesFilt.asp?fiidarticulo=299

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org



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Be Prepared – Precious Metals

Posted: 07 Nov 2016 04:52 PM PST

My Dear Extended Family and Friends, This article is about precious metals and their importance in preparedness. In this article, we are specifically referring to gold and silver when using the terms precious metals. These are not the only precious metals, but these are the metals familiar to most people and which are most likely... Read more »

The post Be Prepared – Precious Metals appeared first on Jim Sinclair's Mineset.

Wikileaks Gives Hillary An Ultimatum: QUIT, Or We Dump Something Life-Destroying

Posted: 07 Nov 2016 04:30 PM PST

 Wikileaks Gives Hillary An Ultimatum: QUIT, Or We Dump Something Life-Destroying. The Financial Armageddon Economic Collapse Blog tracks trends and forecasts , futurists , visionaries , free investigative journalists , researchers , Whistelblowers , truthers and many more

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ANONYMOUS Shocking CHAOS in LONDON - Police Battles Exposed [2016]

Posted: 07 Nov 2016 03:30 PM PST

 (2016) Shocking Scenes of CHAOS in LONDON as Anonymous battle with Police - Exposed Full (1080 HD). Illuminati Jesuit Social Engineering Revolution Agenda Exposed. The Financial Armageddon Economic Collapse Blog tracks trends and forecasts , futurists , visionaries , free investigative...

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Wikileaks Confirms that CNN Really is the Clinton News Network

Posted: 07 Nov 2016 03:00 PM PST

Wikileaks Confirms that CNN Really is the Clinton News Network The Financial Armageddon Economic Collapse Blog tracks trends and forecasts , futurists , visionaries , free investigative journalists , researchers , Whistelblowers , truthers and many more

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Countdown to President Hillary

Posted: 07 Nov 2016 02:30 PM PST

 In just 24 hr Hillary Clinton will be the 1st woman president The Financial Armageddon Economic Collapse Blog tracks trends and forecasts , futurists , visionaries , free investigative journalists , researchers , Whistelblowers , truthers and many more

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Rickards: Trump Still Wins. Here’s Why…

Posted: 07 Nov 2016 02:17 PM PST

This post Rickards: Trump Still Wins. Here's Why… appeared first on Daily Reckoning.

I first issued a forecast that Trump would win the election before the Oct. 28 announcement by the FBI that the Hillary email investigation was being reopened.

That Oct. 28 announcement gave gold a tail wind, as it increased Trump’s chances of winning, but it didn’t change my basic outlook.

Likewise, yesterday's announcement that the email investigation is “case closed” did not change my view. But it did hurt the price of gold, as markets revised downward their expectations of a Trump victory.

The two-day drawdown from $1,305 to $1,285 per ounce is a gift in the sense that it offers a better entry point for those who are not fully allocated to gold (I recommend a 10% allocation of investible assets).

Even if Hillary wins, the trend for gold is higher because her fiscal spending programs will lead to stagflation (just like in the late 1970s, when gold soared). If Trump wins, as I still expect, gold should be up $100 per ounce by Wednesday.

Either way, today is “last call” for a good entry point in a rising gold market.

We'll have to see if yesterday's FBI announcement influences the election. I'm still predicting a Trump win, like I said, but Hillary could still take it.

If Clinton wins, there will be little or no market reaction. But if Trump wins, the stock market will hit an air pocket and plunge 10% overnight.

This is setting up like "Brexit" in June, where markets were fully priced for "Remain" and hit an air pocket when "Leave" won.

You should prepare for a Trump victory now, because it's not nearly the long shot that the mainstream media have been saying it is.

Regards,

Jim Rickards
for The Daily Reckoning

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The post Rickards: Trump Still Wins. Here's Why… appeared first on Daily Reckoning.

Whoever Wins Tomorrow, the Casino’s Going Down

Posted: 07 Nov 2016 02:11 PM PST

This post Whoever Wins Tomorrow, the Casino's Going Down appeared first on Daily Reckoning.

We just had another “Jobs Friday” report and the underlying message could not have been more hostile to the “all is awesome” meme of the Wall Street/Washington establishment.

Nor could it have been more timely and apt on the eve of an election where Donald Trump’s insurgent candidacy has a fighting chance of crossing the finishing line, despite yesterday's about-face by FBI director James Comey.

The U.S. lost another 9,000 manufacturing jobs in October. That brings the year-to-date loss to 58,000 jobs in this breadwinner section of the labor market and compares to a 10-month gain of 275,000 low-pay, part-time jobs in the bartender and waiter category.

Needless to say, this divergence has been underway for a long time. Since the pre-crisis peak in December 2007, in fact, the U.S. has lost 1.5 million manufacturing jobs, while gaining 1.7 million bartenders and waiters at a fraction of the pay.

No wonder Donald Trump made campaign stops in Wisconsin and Michigan over the weekend!

But forget the jobs picture. Look at the markets. They've gone precisely nowhere for two years…

Way back on October 28, 2104 the S&P 500 first crossed the 2090 marker. So here we are 729 days later and it ends up smack dab where it started.

And that was before anyone thought Trump was actually running or crowds were chanting “lock her up” about Hillary. It was also before the Fed had demonstrated it was fully as craven and confused as is now evident.

Moreover, during the trailing 12 months (Q3 2014), reported earnings for the S&P 500 had posted at $106 per share, meaning that the market was trading at a pretty sporty 19.7X.

But never mind. Reported earnings have dropped for seven straight quarters since then to $90 per share, thereby goosing the PE multiple to the nosebleed section of history at 23.2X.

You would think that the prospect of a government paralyzed by impeachment (if Hillary wins) or coming totally unglued (if Trump wins) might have taken its toll. Indeed, the near certainty of  unprecedented gridlock and rancor in the next Congress is especially threatening because the current debt ceiling expires in March.

The first task of the next Congress, therefore, will be to boost the nation’s public debt limit above the symbolic $20 trillion marker. Yet that won’t happen without repeated episodes of political brinksmanship and one or more extended government shutdowns. An already fragile bond market, where since July prices have dropped by upwards of 30% on the long end, will be hammered with disruption and uncertainty.

Likewise, even if Hillary does stumble into the Oval Office with a slight edge in the electoral college, there is virtually no chance her “coattails” will carry the House, or that she has any coattails at all.

Yet that prospect is more significant than a barrel full of monthly jobs reports because it means the GOP will retain control of all the House committees and the subpoena power which goes with it.

Accordingly, there will be a swarm of investigations about every aspect of the Corrupt Clinton Clan — including Servergate, pay-to-play at the Clinton Foundation and the prodigious heap of dirty laundry and de facto confessions of wrong-doing and political corruption that is embedded in the trove of Wikileaks.

If given half the excuse, the House of Representatives will be in the process of launching impeachment hearings even before a putative Clinton Administration has filled even half of its approximate 3,000 appointments to the sub-Cabinet and agencies.

On the other hand, a Trump victory would engender open warfare with the Wall Street/Washington ruling elites and their servile megaphones in the mainstream media.

Indeed, as was have repeatedly observed, Donald Trump was meant to fatally disrupt and destabilize the machinery of the status quo. Bring the house down, as it were.

But he has no coherent program to address America’s failing economy or to hog-tie the nation’s rogue central bank and the self-perpetuating monetary politburo that has transformed the vital money and capital markets of American capitalism into dangerously unstable gambling casinos.

In short, the third great Financial Bubble of the century will blow-up the minute a Donald Trump presidency is certified by the electoral college, if not before. Another stock market crash, however, will be far more devastating that the Lehman meltdown of September 2008 because this time there will be no panicked Washington fireman at the ready.

Instead, there will be a Washington brawl and a fractured Fed with no dry powder remaining after dithering for 95 months on the zero bound. There is not a remote chance it can get approval from Congress to buy stocks and corporate bonds, which are now outside it statutory charter, and any attempt to press forward with sub-zero rates will ignite a political firestorm in Trumpland America.

So as I said on the CNBC Fast Money show last night, the coming political and fiscal conflagration is not remotely “priced-in”.

My appearance was billed under the heading of “sell everything.”

But that’s not bombast or hype. The fact is, at 1 PM last Friday everything changed when FBI Director Comey’s letter landed on Capitol Hill. We are now in Watergate 2.0 with a Teapot Dome equivalent thrown in as a bonus.

Comey's sudden reversal yesterday probably raises a lot more questions than it solves. The horse is already out of the barn, and it's unclear if yesterday's announcement has any influence on voters already convinced of Hillary's underhandedness.  

Unless some new bimbo eruption occurs around Trump today or tomorrow, this race appears to be going down to the wire in the electoral college. As I indicated the other day, Trump seems to have consolidated the Romney Red base of 206 electoral votes including Utah, where the neocon spoiler (Evan McMullin) appears to be fading rapidly.

He also has a decent chance of winning three battleground prizes in Florida, Ohio and Iowa. That’s another 53 electoral votes and would take him to 259. From there it is anyone’s guess about the outcome, but there is now a growing certainty about something even more important.

There is every prospect that if Trump does not win he will loudly, aggressively and bitterly contest the result. That would bring demands for recounts and charges of voter fraud which the mainstream media would interpret as racially charged. It will be about Philadelphia and maybe even Detroit.

Stated differently, we have a condition of massive risk and no reward in the stock market, and a perfect storm of political breakdown and economic recession steaming right at it. Under normal conditions, the casino would be emptying out save for the night watchman.

But after 20 years of Bubble Finance the punters and robo-machines are incapable of heeding the warnings.

Regards,

David Stockman
for The Daily Reckoning

P.S. This is my last chance to get my message out before tomorrow's election.

I believe that all hell is going to break loose in the financial markets very soon, whoever wins. Donald Trump was right when he said that "we're in a big, fat, ugly bubble." A Trump win tomorrow would throw markets into chaos, especially after today's massive rally.

Regardless, as soon as the Federal Reserve lifts their foot off of the neck of interest rates in this country, we're going to have another big crash.

That's why you need a survival guide to get through the turmoil that lies ahead. My latest book, TRUMPED! A Nation on the Brink of Ruin… And How to Bring It Back, provides that plan. I wrote it for that purpose.

If you still haven't ordered your FREE copy, I strongly urge you to order it today. Time's running out, and the window of action is closing fast. Go here now to claim your free financial survival guide to see you through the coming storm.

The post Whoever Wins Tomorrow, the Casino's Going Down appeared first on Daily Reckoning.

Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts - Markets Cheer the Prospect of a Pyrrhic Victory

Posted: 07 Nov 2016 01:29 PM PST

A Foretaste of a Shock Trump Victory, in Three Charts

Posted: 07 Nov 2016 01:22 PM PST

This post A Foretaste of a Shock Trump Victory, in Three Charts appeared first on Daily Reckoning.

[Editorial Note: The nation's future hangs in the balance this election. That's why we are sending out TRUMPED! A Nation on the Brink of Ruin… and How to Bring It Back to every American who responds, absolutely free. Click here for more details.]

OK, let's see if we have this right: After 10 days in which she was once again under FBI investigation for the emails from her private server… Hillary Clinton is once again not under FBI investigation for the emails from her private server.

Heh…
twitter fbi copyLeave the politics aside for the moment: By taking Mrs. Clinton off the hook again, FBI chief James Comey has just amped up the risks to global markets.

Yesterday's news has brought a certain, umm, complacency back into the markets: "Markets Rally as Investors Bet on Clinton Win," says a Financial Times headline.

Stocks rallied last night in Asia, overnight in Europe and this morning in the United States. Really, it's a helluva "relief rally," to use the trendy term — the Dow industrials are up 335 points as we write, to 18,224. The dollar rallied, too.

But safe havens like Treasuries, the Japanese yen and gold tumbled — the Midas metal slipping $15 the moment electronic trading opened for the week. At last check, the bid is even lower, at $1,279.

The salmon-colored rag says it all adds up to "a sign investors are betting a Clinton victory will avoid the policy turmoil that could ensue if rival Donald Trump wins Tuesday's election."

We've seen this movie before. Less than five months ago, in fact.

"Stocks Rise as Investors Grow Hopeful That Britain Will Stay in the EU," said a Los Angeles Times headline two days before the "Brexit" referendum shocked global elites.

We cited that very headline. We also cited the novelist Vladimir Nabokov's observation that "Complacency is a state of mind that exists only in retrospective. It has to be shattered before being ascertained." And we shared a less cerebral version of the same idea…

complacency

"Once markets decided to price for 'Remain,' this became one of the best trading opportunities I've ever seen," Jim Rickards recalled. In the space of 72 hours, one Brexit-related trade leaped 64%. Another more than doubled, up 129%.

Even if the "Remain" side won, the complacency was so widespread the trade would have still been profitable — the sort of "asymmetric" trade Jim finds irresistible.

Still, Jim's methods require constantly checking and rechecking your assumptions in light of new information. That's the key to his techniques that proved so lucrative with Brexit.

The latest polls give Clinton a lead of four or five percentage points over Donald Trump.

On the other hand, the Los Angeles Times poll we mentioned last week — it uses an unconventional methodology and came closer than anyone else to nailing Obama's margin of victory in 2012 — gives Trump a substantial edge:

accurate poll 2012
You don't have to look far for anecdotal evidence to back that up. The ongoing email furor is such that "I'm crossing party lines," a registered Democrat in Florida tells NBC News. Adds Vice reporter Michael Tracey, "I've heard many variations of this basic rationale from voters of all stripes throughout Pennsylvania, Ohio and North Carolina."

Said Jim Rickards in this space on Friday, "The election will definitely be close, and we see strong evidence that Trump will win."

But just what would a Trump victory mean for the markets?

That's easy. It would be an earthquake.

And you don't have to recall the two-day, 850-point drop in the Dow that followed the Brexit referendum in June. You just need to go back 10 days to when FBI chief James Comey announced Clinton was once again under investigation and suddenly it looked as if Trump might pull out a victory.

"All three major U.S. stock market indexes fell in reaction to the news," Jim recalls, "before bouncing back later in the day:
election omen 1"Gold also rallied sharply when the FBI news was disclosed," says Jim. "Donald Trump is the first major presidential candidate to speak favorably about the role of gold in the international monetary system since Ronald Reagan in 1980:

Election Omen 2

"Finally," Jim reminds us, "the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) Volatility Index spiked over 5% in just minutes when the FBI news broke:

Election Omen 3

"None of these price shocks was equivalent to what will happen in the event of an actual Trump victory," says Jim.

"Based on events during the afternoon of Oct. 28, it's easy to see how much greater the market shock will be when Trump wins.

"The U.S. presidential election is close and could go either way, although we expect Trump to win a narrow victory. What is not close are market expectations, which still skew heavily in favor of a Clinton victory. That sets up a 'heads you win, tails you don't lose' scenario. Those are the best kinds of trades.”

Regards,

Dave Gonigam
for The 5 Min. Forecast

P.S. The Election's One Day Away.

David Stockman has repeatedly said, Trumped! A Nation on the Brink of Ruin… And How to Bring It Back wasn't a book he was intending to write. But absolutely had to. It is worth repeating again: America faces impending dangers that every voter should know about before the presidential election just six days from today.

Whether you love or hate Trump or Clinton, every American deserves to know the truth about the imminent dangers facing their wealth.

That's why I'm holding a FREE copy of this book in your name. If you haven't gotten yours yet, I just need your permission (and a valid U.S. postal address) to drop it in the mail.

This special edition has important material not available anywhere else in the world. Not online through Amazon. And not in any brick-and-mortar bookstore.

Click here to fill out your address and contact info. The book will arrive at your doorstep in just a week or two. And please share it with friends and family. It's that important. Thanks for reading.

The post A Foretaste of a Shock Trump Victory, in Three Charts appeared first on Daily Reckoning.

BREAKING: DC Inside Source Says FBI will “TAKE DOWN” Top DOJ Officials for COVER-UP!.

Posted: 07 Nov 2016 12:30 PM PST

BREAKING: CLINTON COVER-UP - DC Inside Source Says FBI is Going to "TAKE DOWN" Top DOJ Officials. The Financial Armageddon Economic Collapse Blog tracks trends and forecasts , futurists , visionaries , free investigative journalists , researchers , Whistelblowers , truthers and many...

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Alex Jones: Emergency Message To Patriots In FBI and NYPD

Posted: 07 Nov 2016 12:00 PM PST

Alex Jones has a special message to the patriots inside the FBI and NYPD as FBI director James Comey gives Hillary the all clear from he email scandal. The Financial Armageddon Economic Collapse Blog tracks trends and forecasts , futurists , visionaries , free investigative...

[[ This is a content summary only. Visit http://www.newsbooze.com or http://www.figanews.com for full links, other content, and more! ]]

5 Things to Watch For: World Money, OPEC, Elections and More

Posted: 07 Nov 2016 11:10 AM PST

This post 5 Things to Watch For: World Money, OPEC, Elections and More appeared first on Daily Reckoning.

At the Daily Reckoning we have filtered through the economic noise to bring you what to watch for in financial news this week.

Euro Founding Father Warns About Project’s Future (BBC)

Otmar Issing was the European Central Bank’s first chief economist and has warned about the impact of negative interest rates. He noted that the ECB and the EU is hindering the recovery of banks, “If it persists for longer, then I think we will see dramatic consequences for insurance companies and pension schemes.” Furthermore, “the longer zero interest rates continue, the more difficult it will be to exit from this situation.”

This is important because, from an insider perspective, the threat of Europe splitting would impact the global economy on trade, investment and the flow of money.

Foreign Reserves to Add $48 billion China Bonds (China Daily)

International investors purchasing Chinese bonds are predicted to increase more than four times the current amount over the next two years according to a Chinese state-run media outlet. Chinese monetary authorities, accompanied by other international organizations, will lead buying of about $48 billion from 2017 to 2018 (four times the $12 billion of last year). The Chinese media outlet cited China's entrance into the International Monetary Fund's special drawing rights (or what Jim Rickards has defined as world money) on October 1st but has seen minimal impact.

It then noted with regards to world money that "SDR-driven inflows are already showing signs of picking up, with foreign investors’ holdings of Chinese onshore sovereign debt rising a record $6 billion in September…"  This unfolding news is key to stay vigilant on because as the new world money develops, it will impact the strength of the dollar and how the international community trades currency.

Traders Are Counting on a December Fed Hike — Unless Trump Wins (Bloomberg)

interest rate hike

Investor consensus, according to the mainstream take, has a December interest-rate hike as the increased probability after signals from the Federal Reserve over the past two months.  After the government released economic data that the Fed views as credible indicators (wage growth, jobs, etc) even the Fed noted in its November 2nd meeting that it had a higher case for action. The market absolutely hates uncertainty and in light of a "Trump surprise" this story, the probability of a rate hike, and how the market adjusts is one to watch.

Jim Rickards has noted that regardless of who wins the election, a rate hike is imminent and to not expect the Fed to act in an effort to simply play to the markets demand.   

Oil Tries & Fails To Reach $45 Overnight – Should Investors Take OPEC Seriously Anymore? (ZeroHedge)

While all of the noise around the US election continues, OPEC is set to meet this month.  At the OPEC head of state meeting questions over pricing, market supply and whether the cartel will limit output are scheduled to be front and center in the media.  Tyler Durden poses the question of why exactly investors should take the aging oil organization seriously, and notes that it has lackluster impact.

The analysis offered by Durden does note that, "If a production freeze is reached on November 30, it will be a small miracle and could send prices back up above $50. But it is likely the criticisms of OPEC and doubts about its continued relevance will only grow."  This story is likely to escalate after the election results and speculation over its impact will undoubtedly impact oil trading.

Regardless of How America Votes, Americans Want a Different Foreign Policy (Ron Paul)

Starting on November 9th (or whenever official election results are confirmed) policy papers for the president elect will be proposed.  Dr. Ron Paul notes that, "Claiming we must protect our "interests" overseas really means using the US military to benefit special interests. That is not what the military is for. We must stick to our non-interventionist guns. No more regime change. No more covert destabilization programs overseas. A solid defense budget, not an imperial military budget. US troops home now. End US military action in Syria, Iraq, Afghanistan, Somalia, and so on. Just come home."

Maintaining diligent observations on these policy initiatives in the coming weeks and months will be a primary way to understand what foreign policy will be for the next administration.

Regards,

Craig Wilson, @craig_wilson7
for The Daily Reckoning

Ed. Note: Sign up for a FREE subscription to The Daily Reckoning, and you'll receive regular insights for specific profit opportunities. By taking advantage now, you're ensuring that you'll be set up for updates and issues in the future. It's FREE.

The post 5 Things to Watch For: World Money, OPEC, Elections and More appeared first on Daily Reckoning.

WIKILEAKS BOMBSHELL: Chelsea Clinton Used Foundation CHARITY Funds for Wedding & “Life”

Posted: 07 Nov 2016 11:00 AM PST

WIKILEAKS BOMBSHELL: Chelsea Clinton Used Foundation CHARITY Money for Her LAVISH Wedding and "Life Style" The Financial Armageddon Economic Collapse Blog tracks trends and forecasts , futurists , visionaries , free investigative journalists , researchers , Whistelblowers , truthers...

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FTSE 100 rallies and dollar strengthens as risk appetite rebounds after FBI clears Hillary Clinton

Posted: 07 Nov 2016 09:32 AM PST

This posting includes an audio/video/photo media file: Download Now

BREAKING: Trump Takes Nearly 6-Point NATIONAL LEAD ! LA TImes poll.

Posted: 07 Nov 2016 09:30 AM PST

BREAKING: Trump Takes Nearly 6-Point NATIONAL LEAD ! L.A. TImes Poll. The Financial Armageddon Economic Collapse Blog tracks trends and forecasts , futurists , visionaries , free investigative journalists , researchers , Whistelblowers , truthers and many more

[[ This is a content summary only. Visit http://www.newsbooze.com or http://www.figanews.com for full links, other content, and more! ]]

Election Chaos? Get Ready!

Posted: 07 Nov 2016 08:42 AM PST

either way, whoever wins this election, they're so be ALLOT of pissed off people. if trump wins, the blm people etc...are going to cause chaos, if hillary wins, there will be a ton of trump people really mad. prepare either way. The Financial Armageddon Economic Collapse Blog tracks...

[[ This is a content summary only. Visit http://www.newsbooze.com or http://www.figanews.com for full links, other content, and more! ]]

Silver’s Roadmap

Posted: 07 Nov 2016 05:38 AM PST

SunshineProfits

Chinese investors are in love with U.S. dollar debt

Posted: 07 Nov 2016 05:00 AM PST

From Bloomberg News
Sunday, November 6, 2016

Terence Cheng, a fixed-income fund manager based in Hong Kong, has never gotten so many Chinese client inquiries for overseas dollar bonds. Their questions sent over WeChat, the popular Chinese instant-messaging service, even interrupted his beach vacation in Thailand.

"I spent one to two hours on conference calls with mainland clients on WeChat almost every day," said Cheng, the chief investment officer at HuaAn Asset Management (Hong Kong) Ltd. He was similarly busy working at home when Typhoon Haima shut businesses across the city last month. "Domestic investors' demand for offshore dollar bonds is really strong."

The yuan has dropped 4 percent this year against the dollar, the most in Asia, and the prospect of further depreciation has driven Chinese investors to buy assets denominated in the U.S. currency. ...

... For the remainder of the report:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-11-06/wechat-beeping-on-beac...



ADVERTISEMENT

K92 Mining Begins Gold Production at Kainantu Mine

Company Announcement
Wednesday, October 5, 2016

K92 Mining Inc. is pleased to announce that gold production has commenced from the Irumafimpa gold deposit.

Ian Stalker, K92 Chief Executive Officer, says: "This milestone is highly significant for our company, and for this region of Papua New Guinea. A great deal of thanks goes to the entire team on site in PNG in achieving production ahead of schedule and on budget. The rehabilitation of the Irumafimpa gold mine, process plant, and associated infrastructure commenced in late March and is now complete. As an enhancement of the processing facility, we are also pleased to note that the installation of a new drum scrubber is also nearing completion and commissioning of this will be completed by the end of the month. ..."

...For the remainder of the announcement:

http://www.k92mining.com/2016/10/6077/



Help GATA by purchasing DVDs of GATA's London conference in August 2011 or GATA's Dawson City conference in August 2006:

http://www.goldrush21.com/order.html

Or by purchasing a colorful poster of GATA's full-page ad in The Wall Street Journal on January 31, 2009:

http://tinyurl.com/zr4tjuc

Help keep GATA going

GATA is a civil rights and educational organization based in the United States and tax-exempt under the U.S. Internal Revenue Code. Its e-mail dispatches are free, and you can subscribe at:

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To contribute to GATA, please visit:

http://www.gata.org/node/16

Gold Has No Place In A Modern Monetary System!

Posted: 07 Nov 2016 04:26 AM PST

Gold Has No Place In A Modern Monetary System!
By Egon von Greyerz

Money printing and debt is just the most beautiful scheme invented by governments to make ends meet and give the people whatever they want. In this perfect system, it makes not the slightest difference if the budget doesn't balance. Conventional methods of increasing taxes or reducing government … Read the rest

Breaking News And Best Of The Web

Posted: 07 Nov 2016 01:37 AM PST

FBI ends probe of Clinton emails. Polls give Clinton slight lead. Global stocks soar, interest rates and USD rise, gold falls. “Best Of” articles from Doug Noland, Deep Connections and Hussman Funds.   Best Of The Web Tech is disrupting all before it – even democracy is in its sights – Guardian The upshot of […]

The post Breaking News And Best Of The Web appeared first on DollarCollapse.com.

California Gold Resource Released

Posted: 07 Nov 2016 12:00 AM PST

Bob Moriarty of 321 Gold updates his investment thesis for California Gold after the company released a new resource report for its gold project at the south end of California's mother lode.

Gold Stocks Proprietary Cycle Indicator Remains Down

Posted: 06 Nov 2016 09:36 AM PST

Technical analyst Jack Chan charts the latest movements in gold and silver, noting the markets will be volatile until the election is over.

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