Wednesday, November 16, 2016

Gold World News Flash

Gold World News Flash


European Central Bank gold reserves held across 5 locations. ECB will not disclose Gold Bar List.

Posted: 16 Nov 2016 07:03 AM PST

Instead of being fixated with the ECB's continual disastrous and extended QE policy, perhaps some financial journalists could bring themselves to asking Mario Draghi some questions about the ECB gold reserves at the next ECB press briefing, questions such as the percentage split in storage distribution between the 5 ECB gold storage locations, why ECB gold is being held in New York, why is there no physical audit of the gold by the ECB, why does the ECB not publish a weight list of gold bar holdings, and do the ECB or its national central bank agents intervene into the gold market using ECB gold reserves.

Surge In Online Loan Defaults Sends Shockwaves Through The Industry

Posted: 16 Nov 2016 12:24 AM PST

Online lenders were supposed to revolutionize the consumer loan industry. Instead, they are rapidly becoming yet another "the next subprime."

We first started writing about the P2P sector in early 2015 with cautionary pieces like and "Presenting The $77 Billion P2P Bubble" and "What Bubble? Wall Street To Turn P2P Loans Into CDOs." Things accelerated in February of this year when we first noted that substantial cracks were starting to show in the world of P2P lending, and more specifically, with LendingClub's inability to assess credit risk of its borrowers that were causing the company to experience higher write-off rates than forecast.

Below is a chart that was used in a LendingClub presentation showing just how far off the company was in predicting write-off rates - the bread and butter of its business. It was evident then that their algorithms weren't "working very well."

At the time we said that what the slide above shows is that LendingClub is terrible at assessing credit risk. A write-off rate of 7-8% may not sound that bad (well, actually it does, but because P2P is relatively new, we don't really have a benchmark), it's double the low-end internal estimate. That's bad.  In other words, we said, the algorithms LendingClub uses to assess credit risk aren't working. Plain and simple.

Three months later, in May of 2016, our skepticism was proven right when the stock of LendingClub - at the time the largest online consumer lender - imploded when the CEO resigned following an internal loan review.

Since then, despite a foreboding sense of deterioration behind the scenes, there were few material development to suggest that the cracks in the surface of the online lending industry were getting bigger.

Until today, that is, when we learned that - as expected - there has been a spike in online loan defaults by US consumers, sending a shockwave through the online lending industry: a group of online loans that were packaged into bonds is going bad faster than lenders and bond underwriters had expected even after the recent volatility in the P2P market, in what Bloomberg dubbed was "the latest sign that some startups that aimed to revolutionize the banking industry underestimated the risk they were taking."

In a page taken right out of the CDO book of 2007, delinquencies and defaults on at least four different sets of bonds have reached the "triggers" points. Breaching those levels would force lenders or underwriters to start paying down the bonds early, redirecting cash from other uses such as lending and organic growth. According to Bloomberg, one company, Avant Inc. and its underwriters, will have to begin to repay three of its asset-backed notes, which have all breached trigger levels.

Two of Avant's securities breached triggers this month for the first time, the person said, asking for anonymity because the data is not public. Another bond, tied to the subprime lender CircleBack Lending Inc., may also soon breach those levels, according to Morgan Stanley analysts. When the four offerings were originally sold last year, they totaled more than $500 million in size. Around $2.8 billion of bonds backed by online consumer loans were sold in 2015, according to research firm PeerIQ.

The breach of trigger points is merely the latest (d)evolutionary event attained by the online lending industry, whose fall promises to be far more turbulent than its impressive rise. Prior to the latest news, LendingClub last month raised interest rates and tightened its standards for at least the second time this year after seeing higher delinquencies among its customers, especially those with the most debt. 

However, that was a linear deterioration which had no impact on mandatory cash covenants, at least not yet. With the breach of trigger points, online lenders have officially entered the world of binary outcomes, where the accumulation of enough bad loans will have implications on the underlying business and its use of cash.

Breaching triggers typically forces a company to divert cash flow from assets to paying off bonds instead of making new loans, which often means it has to find new, more expensive funding or to scale down its business. Avant, based in Chicago, cut its monthly target for lending this summer by about 50 percent, and decided to shrink its workforce in line with that, while CircleBack Lending, based in Boca Raton, Florida, stopped making new loans earlier this year.

Setting bond triggers is often up to the security's underwriters. Some lenders have been working more closely with Wall Street firms to make sure the banks know how loans will probably perform and set triggers at reasonable levels, said Ram Ahluwalia, whose data and analytics firm PeerIQ tracks their loan data.

Indicatively, in the "old days" John Paulson would sit down with
Goldman Sachs and determine the "triggers" on CDOs, also known as
attachment and detachment points, so he could then be the counterparty on the trade, and short it while Goldman syndicated the long side to its clients, also known as muppets. It would be interesting if a similar transaction could take place with online loans as well.

Other industry participants aren't doing better: "There was a rush to grow," said Bryan Sullivan, chief financial officer of LoanDepot, a mortgage company that last year began making unsecured loans to consumers online. In the true definition of irony, while Sullivan was speaking about the industry in general, LoanDepot's own loan losses on a bond in September broke through the ceilings that had been set by underwriters at Jefferies Group. 

We are not the only ones to have warned early about the dangers of online lending: Recently Steve Eisman, a money manager who predicted the collapse of subprime mortgage securities, said some firms have been careless and that Silicon Valley is "clueless" about the work involved in making loans to consumers. Non-bank startups arranged more than $36 billion of loans in 2015, mainly for consumers, up from $11 billion the year before, according to a report from KPMG.

And while P2P may be the "next" subrpime, there is always the "old" subprime to fall back on to get a sense of the true state of the US consumer :as Bloomberg adds, the percentage of subprime car loan borrowers that were past due reached a six-year high in August according to S&P Global Ratings' analysis of debts bundled into bonds.

Lenders themselves are talking about the heavy competition for customers. Jay Levine, the chief executive officer of OneMain Holdings Inc., one of America's largest subprime lenders, said last week that "the availability of unsecured credit is currently the greatest that has been in recent years," although he said much of the most intense competition is coming from credit card lenders.

And in a surprising twist, OneMain, formerly part of Citigroup, is taking steps to curb potential losses by requiring the weakest borrowers to pledge collateral. In other words, what was until recently an unsecured online loan industry is quietly shifting to, well, secured. Alas, for most lenders it may be too late.

* * *

For those curious, the deals that have or are expected to breach triggers include:

  • MPLT 2015-AV1, a bond deal backed by Avant loans that Jefferies bought and securitized.
  • AVNT 2015-A, a bond deal issued by Avant and underwritten by Jefferies.
  • AMPLT 2015-A, a bond deal backed by Avant loans and underwritten by Morgan Stanley.
  • MPLT 2015-CB2, backed by subprime loans made by CircleBack Lending Inc. and underwritten by Jefferies.

European Central Bank gold reserves held across 5 locations. ECB will not disclose Gold Bar List.

Posted: 15 Nov 2016 10:06 PM PST

Bullion Star

SHOCKING: Trump Racism Caught on Camera!

Posted: 15 Nov 2016 07:00 PM PST

The left are the real racist. We care about the issues they (the left) cares about color! The Financial Armageddon Economic Collapse Blog tracks trends and forecasts , futurists , visionaries , free investigative journalists , researchers , Whistelblowers , truthers and many more

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Unreal, Sick And Nasty: While American Cities Burn, Obama Has This Sick Response!

Posted: 15 Nov 2016 06:30 PM PST

Unreal, Sick And Nasty: While American Cities Burn, Obama Has This Sick Response!~~ The Financial Armageddon Economic Collapse Blog tracks trends and forecasts , futurists , visionaries , free investigative journalists , researchers , Whistelblowers , truthers and many more

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Deutsche Bank The First Domino to Fall

Posted: 15 Nov 2016 06:00 PM PST

 Economic collapse and financial crisis is rising any moment. Getting informed about collapse and crisis may earn you, or prevent to lose money. Do you want to be informed with Max Keiser, Alex Jones, Gerald Celente, Peter Schiff, Marc Faber, Ron Paul,Jim Willie, V Economist, and many...

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What Will Trigger The Dollar Collapse on December 31, 2016 ?

Posted: 15 Nov 2016 05:30 PM PST

What Will Trigger The Dollar Collapse on December 31, 2016 ? MUST SEE and shareThe dollar collapse will be the single largest event in human history. This will be the first event that will touch every single living person in the world. All human activity is controlled by money. Our wealth,our...

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The War On Cash Goes Nuclear In India, Australia and Across The World

Posted: 15 Nov 2016 05:26 PM PST

We are living in a world where paper fiat money is becoming a novelty. In Australia, Citibank has just become the first to declare that it no longer will accept notes or coins. Only digital transactions. This follows on the heels of India banning large cash denominations. The cash-oriented changes of these two countries are especially troubling in light of the eventual plans to phase out large denomination euro notes and the US 100 dollar bill by 2018.  Just as the Economist predicted nearly 30 years ago, the world is going cashless.

Why Nate Silver / Fivethirtyeight is one of the Most Reliable Election Forecasts Indicator?

Posted: 15 Nov 2016 05:16 PM PST

Nate Silver or more correctly his fivethirtyfive.com site got the US Presidential election of 2016 very badly wrong, for instance they had Hillary on a probability of at least 88% a few weeks out from the election day and about an hour before the polls closed had Hillary on a winning 71% against Trump trailing on just 29%.

Steve Pieczenik : No More False Flags, No More B^!!$#!%!

Posted: 15 Nov 2016 04:30 PM PST

This is what we DON'T want! No more false flags, no more 9/11s, no more Sandy Hooks, Orlando shootings or any other hoaxes, propaganda or B^!!$#!%! What we want now is the truth! The Financial Armageddon Economic Collapse Blog tracks trends and forecasts , futurists , visionaries ,...

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Ronan Manly: European Central Bank won't account for its gold reserves

Posted: 15 Nov 2016 03:45 PM PST

6:45p ET Tuesday, November 15, 2016

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Gold researcher Ronan Manly reports today that the European Central Bank does not audit its gold reserves, which are vaulted with other central banks, and will not disclose a list of the gold bars in its reserves. Such disclosure probably would impair their use in the swaps and leases undertaken by central banks for gold market rigging. Manly's report is headlined "European Central Bank Gold Reserves Held Across 5 Locations; ECB Will Not Disclose Gold Bar List" and it's posted at Bullion Star here:

https://www.bullionstar.com/blogs/ronan-manly/european-central-bank-gold...

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org



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Gold Price is trying to find footing around $1,200

Posted: 15 Nov 2016 03:44 PM PST

15-Nov-16PriceChange% Change
Gold Price, $/oz1,224.002.800.23%
Silver Price, $/oz17.030.150.90%
Gold/Silver Ratio71.877-0.481-0.67%
Silver/Gold Ratio0.01390.00010.67%
Platinum Price932.801.100.12%
Palladium Price705.408.251.18%
S&P 5002,180.3916.190.75%
Dow18,923.0654.370.29%
Dow in GOLD $s319.590.190.06%
Dow in GOLD oz15.460.010.06%
Dow in SILVER oz1,111.23-6.79-0.61%
US Dollar Index100.180.060.06%
IMPORTANT NOTE: The following are wholesale, not retail, prices. To figure our retail selling price, multiply the "ask" price by 1.035. To figure our retail buying price, multiple the "bid" price by 0.97. Lower commissions apply to larger orders, higher commissions to very small orders.
SPOT GOLD:1,227.90


GOLDFine Tr.Oz.BIDASK$/oz
American Eagle1.001,264.741,269.031,269.03
1/2 AE0.50625.72647.721,295.43
1/4 AE0.25315.93330.001,319.99
1/10 AE0.10128.82134.461,344.55
Aust. 100 corona0.981,196.371,205.371,229.71
British sovereign0.24291.22304.221,292.33
French 20 franc0.19226.96230.961,237.05
Krugerrand1.001,245.091,255.091,255.09
Maple Leaf1.001,237.901,251.901,251.90
1/2 Maple Leaf0.50706.04644.651,289.30
1/4 Maple Leaf0.25313.11328.461,313.85
1/10 Maple Leaf0.10130.16133.841,338.41
Mexican 50 peso1.211,472.951,483.951,230.78
.9999 bar1.001,232.201,239.901,239.90
SPOT SILVER:17.05


SILVERFine Tr.Oz.BIDASK$/oz
VG+ Morgan $B4 19050.7725.0027.0035.29
VG+ Peace dollar0.7720.0022.0028.76
90% silver coin bags0.7212,687.6812,973.6818.15
US 40% silver 1/2s0.304,836.534,986.5316.90
100 oz .999 bar100.001,684.501,719.5017.20
10 oz .999 bar10.00171.95176.9517.70
1 oz .999 round1.0016.8517.3517.35
Am Eagle, 200 oz Min1.0018.5520.0520.05
SPOT PLATINUM:932.80


PLATINUMFine Tr.Oz.BIDASK$/oz
Plat. Platypus1.00947.80977.80977.80

Today I want to concentrate on palladium & interest rates.

Palladium Price has been ROARING since the first of November. Look at this chart, http://schrts.co/OW0iE0

Palladium Price bottomed back in January 2016 and peaked in August. However, its correction, unlike silver & gold's, ended November first. It went all the way down to the uptrend line from January, and has been cavorting ever since. Arrows point to feverishly bullish MACD, huge volume on rises, 200 DMA & uptrend line touch back, and now, palladium is ready to punch through the downtrend line from the August high.

Ain't got a clue what's driving it. It's primarily an industrial metal, used as a catalyst, especially in automotive catalytic converters. Clearly something I don't see is going on, but the chart doesn't lie.

Here is the chart of the yield on the 10 year US treasury note, http://schrts.co/vUJO4G
Note the gaps in the frenzied rise since Trump's election. Mark also how the yield is punching through the downtrend line from 2007. Yep, it's massively overbought so might correct any time, but that's not the point. What's crucial is that it has most assuredly changed trend to UP. After 36 years of central bank interest rate suppression interest rates have LOADS of upside -- clear blue sky above.

Looky here at the 30 year treasury bond price (not yield), http://schrts.co/IoR0Nw
This chart is broke as the Ten Commandments. Free falling. Will correct a little soon, but trend has turned down. (Y'all don't forget: when interest rates rise, bond prices fall.)

The whole financial landscape is about to suffer an earthquake from rising interest rates. Nobody's watching it. The abyss will open up shortly to swallow the unwary.
US dollar index crept toward that 100.60 resistance, gaining 6 basis points to 100.18 today. Watch what happens when it hits that resistance.

Dow made another new all time high today at 18,923.06, higher by 54.37 (0.29%). S&P 500 played catch up, rising 16.19 to 2,180.39.

Silver Price gained 15.2 (0.9%) to 1702.9¢ on Comex & gold rose $2.80 (0.2%) to $1,224.00.

I don't reckon the slide in silver & gold is quite over yet, even though both rose today. Gold Price is trying to find footing around $1,200, silver somewhere above 1600¢. Keep your eye peeled, this is the opportunity.

Durn! I left the lesson off my Susan Story last night. It's for men: y'all have no idea how much your wife accomplishes for you every day, so the chance of your praising her too much or hugging her too often is nil. Treasure what you have.

Argentum et aurum comparanda sunt —
Silver and gold must be bought.
— Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
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Will This Secret Weapon Wipe Out America?

Posted: 15 Nov 2016 03:30 PM PST

 Do you think that this weapon could actually wipe out the USA in reality? The Financial Armageddon Economic Collapse Blog tracks trends and forecasts , futurists , visionaries , free investigative journalists , researchers , Whistelblowers , truthers and many more

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MORONS REACT TO TRUMP WINNING

Posted: 15 Nov 2016 03:00 PM PST

The hysteria continues! "Never argue with an idiot. They'll only drag you down to their level and beat you with experience." -- Mark Twain The Financial Armageddon Economic Collapse Blog tracks trends and forecasts , futurists , visionaries , free investigative journalists ,...

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The Coming Dollar Shortage

Posted: 15 Nov 2016 02:38 PM PST

This post The Coming Dollar Shortage appeared first on Daily Reckoning.

Is the Fed about to drag the world into another financial crisis?

Trump's election has filled the dollar's sails with fresh winds. As Neil MacKinnon, economist with VTB Capital, says, "From the perspective of the financial markets, the immediate reaction to the outcome of last week's election has been a stronger dollar due to expectations of a loose fiscal and tighter policy mix."

Today, fed funds futures are flashing a 91% probability of a rate hike next month. The likely result: a stronger dollar. But that stronger dollar could reap a whirlwind…

Many fear the world is facing a destabilizing dollar shortage. And they fear a stronger dollar could unleash a global liquidity crisis.

Dollar shortage?

In the words of the Telegraph: "Fear that the U.S. Federal Reserve may have to raise rates uncomfortably fast is leading to an acute dollar shortage, draining global liquidity."

"The idea of a dollar shortage sounds strange to many observers," Jim Rickards concedes. "Didn't the Fed print $3.4 trillion of new money from 2008–2015? How could there possibly be a dollar shortage with that much new money around?"

The answer, says Jim, is that the world created new dollar-denominated debt faster than the Fed created money. Every dollar printed by the Federal Reserve has been lugging around a 20-fold pyramid of debt on its back.

That means the monetary machine cranked out over $60 trillion of new dollar-denominated debt from 2009–2015. Much of it ended up overseas.

"This huge debt pyramid was fine," Jim adds — "as long as global growth was solid and dollars were flowing out of the U.S. and into emerging markets."

But under current market conditions — what Jim calls "growth depression," with a "technical recession looming" — servicing debt could become an impossible burden. A stronger dollar means dollar-denominated debt is more expensive. And debtors don't have the dollars to pay back those debts. Hence, a dollar shortage.

Jim says this "mismatch" between all that dollar-denominated debt and the investment flows needed to service them speeds the global economy toward crisis:

It raises the prospect of a new liquidity crisis and financial panic worse than 2008… There are not enough dollars to go around. The losses will be enormous… We are closer to the stage (last seen in September 2008) where "everybody wants her money back." When that happens, there's never enough money.

Everyone wants their money back at once, and it's just not there. Then they default on their own obligations. And so on. And so on.

Now, just today… Jim warned his subscribers that the Fed's rate hike next month could be the snowflake that triggers the avalanche. And the Fed's too oblivious to see it:

Stan Fischer, vice chair of the Fed, has now confirmed my view that the rate hike is coming. That comes as no surprise. What is surprising is Fischer's comment that he is "reasonably confident" that a Fed rate hike would have no spillover effects in emerging markets. That's troubling and almost certainly represents wishful thinking on Fischer's part. In fact, there's already a global dollar shortage. A stronger dollar resulting from a Fed rate hike could tip emerging markets into a full-blown liquidity crisis.

Fischer, in fact, said earlier today that it's "certainly too soon to declare that a broad reduction in market liquidity has occurred.” Of course he did.

Maybe Fischer would condemn Jim as a calamity-howler, or some kind of catastrophist. But then he'd better lambaste the Bank for International Settlements, or BIS. The BIS is considered the central bank for central bankers. It doesn't get more "establishment."

So… What are the BIS insiders saying? From a BIS report, issued just today:

When so many borrowers have borrowed so much in dollars… dollar appreciation exposes borrowers and lenders to valuation changes and, in turn, impacts their balance sheets… If banks react to resurgent volatility by reducing their intermediation activity, as happened during the 2007–09 crisis, the banking sector may become an amplifier of shocks rather than an absorber of shocks.

The above is bureaucratese for "global liquidity crisis." It means an overly strong dollar could drain the lubricant from the global growth engine. And the whole thing could seize.

That's when the global elites step in, according to Jim:

When this new panic hits, investors will have no confidence in the ability of central banks to limit the panic. Unlike 1998 and 2008, the next panic will be unstoppable without extreme measures — including IMF money printing, lockdowns of banks and money market funds and possible martial law in response to money riots.

The cherry on top for the elites: They'd get to blame the whole thing on Trump. Look what Trump caused, they'd howl. His anti-globalism, his protectionism, his immigration restrictionism, all his huff and puff. Only the "experts" could pick up the pieces in the fashion Jim just described.

And next time, there'd be no turning back. The elites would be permanently in the saddle.

Regards,

Brian Maher
Managing editor, The Daily Reckoning

Editor's note: In his new book, The Road to Ruin, Jim exposes the global elites' plans. And even more importantly, he shows you how to guard your wealth as their plan unfolds.

Here's a hint of what you'll find inside:

➤The U.S. government's “ice-nine” plan to steal your wealth and prevent you from getting your cash. If you have a dollar to your name, you need to read Page 22

➤The secret program for controlling citizens used by elites and leaders from Caesar and Napoleon to Rockefeller and Roosevelt… through both Bushes and Obama. If you think this is some conspiracy theory, you better see Page 58

➤The exact date by which the elites will finally reach their goal of world money under their control. You MUST take immediate and specific action before that. Hurry to Page 186

➤The institution that will decide what the dollar is worth in the near future. (Hint: It is NOT the Federal Reserve, Congress, the U.S. Treasury or the IMF.) Page 70

➤The climate change "Trojan horse" the elites are using to mask a troubling plan for you and the world's taxpayers. Page 88.

That's just the beginning. There's more. Lots more.

Click here now to claim your free copy. Make no mistake: This might be Jim's most important work to date.

The post The Coming Dollar Shortage appeared first on Daily Reckoning.

Is China Trump’s Crisis in Waiting?

Posted: 15 Nov 2016 02:34 PM PST

This post Is China Trump's Crisis in Waiting? appeared first on Daily Reckoning.

President-elect Donald Trump ran for office on an isolationist and trade protection policy that directly focused on what he perceived as Chinese economic threats.  Trump spoke on currency manipulation, uneven trade agreements and a waning US economy that he believed needed a reconstructed relationship.  

Whether these threats are real or not, Trump could be walking into the White House with a true economic crisis on his hands.  The potential for significant changes in US-Chinese economic relations could impact you.  From the value of the US dollar to the price of goods at your local supermarket.

While many discussions will rightfully swirl on domestic issues, perhaps none are as concerning as a potential economic fall-out between the US and China.

It is clear that Asian markets and currency values are shaken in the surprise victory of the Trump campaign.

As the chart below features, Asian currency values have dropped to a seven-year low while the US dollar has risen.  A strong US dollar might seem like good news.  For one, it means greater purchasing power, a stronger exchange rate abroad.  

bloomberg-asia-currency

However, a strong dollar is bad for US exporters because it makes US goods more expensive in international markets. The technology and energy sectors are typically the first to be hit under a strong dollar because they cannot sell their goods. Think Apple or Exxon – two of the strongest US companies, being unable to move their products.  Instances like these would have a long term negative impact on the global economy.

Lilian Karunungan wrote in Bloomberg "Emerging assets have tumbled in the past week as the president-elect is seen unleashing a spending surge, pushing the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates."  Translation: Asia is watching the west, and so far it has not reacted well to the unfolding news and potential monetary policy to come.  

Trade War and China

During a phone conversation less than a week after Trump's election win, China's President Xi Jinping said on the call that cooperation is the "only correct choice" for the two countries going forward.

That leaves Trump's positioning of policy directly in the line of fire for China's economic model.  It is important to recall that has intentionally made the value of the yuan lower than it perhaps should be.  While this might be seen as a manipulation in currency, and therefore trade, it opens up deserved areas of trade negotiation and further discussion.

Jim Rickards while on Fox Business Network spoke on Trump's trade policies he stated that, "Both sides are tough negotiators. These are opening bids. I have never understood Trump's tariff policies being where he wanted to end up. This is where he starts the negotiation. This is the "art of the deal." The problem with a trade war between the US and China… both sides lose."

Rickards spoke on the currency manipulation stemming from China saying, "Most of 2015 they were propping up their currency. They had been playing nice with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) so they could get into the special drawing rights (SDR) – or the new world money system."

Tariffs and Trump

In January 2016, Trump addressed an editorial review board where he proposed a 45 percent tariff on Chinese exports.  Trump has since backed away from this proposal, but the warning was clear (even if it would violate the US obligations under the WTO).  

While tariffs may look attractive in principle, China is predicted to overtake Canada as the United States' largest trading partner.  Overall, its manufacturing industries allow American consumers to have cheaper products ranging from appliances to clothing.

A sudden spike in those costs could negatively impact American spending and the overall economy of Main Street.  It could cause investors to seek stocks that do not rely on exports – which could lead to a major loss in exporter stocks.  Trump may have only played up protectionist rhetoric, the impact on the total trade psyche could have an immediate impact on the economic conditions he walks into following the inauguration.

As the former GOP presidential candidate Trump told the New York Times, "The only power that we have with China, is massive trade."

While speaking in China earlier this year David Lipton, First Deputy Managing Director of the IMF did not mince words.  Lipton said to the Chinese Economists Society that he was very alarmed by the total corporate debt noting that it was "about 145 percent of GDP, which is very high by any measure."

In a statement reminiscent of seeing the writing on the walls, Litpon warned, "we have learned over and over in the past 20 years how disruptions in one country's economy and markets can reverberate worldwide…"

The potential of greater tariff threats could trigger exactly the warnings the the number two guy at the IMF is warning of.  It could shake the already uneasy balancing of the Chinese economy, and have massive global ripple effects.

While it might be a possibility to find a replacement to China's production, it is not possible to replace their consumers.  In smartphone sales and consumption alone, a major driver of consumer spending, China has more users than US, Brazil, and Indonesia all combined.  

Focusing on smartphone sales out of China might only paint a small picture, but it shows that any "tit-for-tat" reactions between the global superpowers could have highly detrimental impacts.  For an example of this look to Apple. The major tech company had iPhone sales  last quarter hit $18.4 billion, the largest in US history.  As of last year, iPhone sales in China even topped domestic sales in the US.

A growing divide between the US and China is not simply one of diplomatic and military bolstering, it directly impacts the private sector and trade flows.  While Apple might be an obvious bystander in trade and currency war escalation, the global economy could be the ultimate loser.

In 1996, Thomas Friedman notoriously wrote his Golden Arches Theory where "no two countries that both have a McDonald’s have ever fought a war against each other."  He might need to update his flawed theory again to include iPhones and major trading partners.  

This economic saber rattling could not come at a worse time for China.  The official foreign exchange reserves in the country dropped more than half a trillion dollars last year alone and continue to fall, reporting in October alone a loss of $46 billion.  Capital is fleeting and flying from mainland China and not likely to stop anytime in the near future.

As Nomi Prins wrote on Asia and the Chinese economy prior to the US election, "Old fights might be discarded if economic or financial survival is imperiled, which is what these sharper market moves foreshadow."  The former Wall Street managing director wrote on a China rising even further in the global economy, but now that possible conflicts in trade and the increased risk of crisis has escalated – markets might be left to fight for market survival.

The Chinese yuan today has hit its lowest level in almost eight years.  The People's Bank of China (the central bank of China)  has allowed the yuan to weaken for the past eight days in a row.  This all comes in the wake of the US election, expectations of a Fed interest rate hike and surging housing prices in mainland China.

While some might see a weakening Chinese economy as a great opportunity for the US to use to their advantage, it would be a fool’s errand.  The incoming president-elect would be wise to monitor closely his approach to China.  It will impact us all.  

The Trump administration could have its first major test with China.  Having a well developed Chinese policy will be critical – especially in the wake of a looming economic crisis.

Regards,

Craig Wilson, @craig_wilson7
for the Daily Reckoning

Ed. Note: Sign up for a FREE subscription to The Daily Reckoning, and you'll receive regular insights for specific profit opportunities. By taking advantage now, you're ensuring that you'll be set up for updates and issues in the future. It's FREE.

The post Is China Trump's Crisis in Waiting? appeared first on Daily Reckoning.

Look What President-Elect Donald Trump Just Did For America !!

Posted: 15 Nov 2016 02:30 PM PST

Look What President-Elect Donald Trump Just Did For America !! No other US President ever did this in the past! The Financial Armageddon Economic Collapse Blog tracks trends and forecasts , futurists , visionaries , free investigative journalists , researchers , Whistelblowers ,...

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The Road to Ruin

Posted: 15 Nov 2016 01:55 PM PST

This post The Road to Ruin appeared first on Daily Reckoning.

In my forthcoming book The Road to Ruin: The Global Elites' Secret Plan for the Next Financial Crisis, I make a very simple point: In 1998 we were hours away from collapse and did everything wrong following that.

In 2008, we were hours away from collapse and did the same thing. Each crisis is bigger than the one before.

The stock market today is not very far from where it was in November 2014. The stock market has had big ups and downs. There was a big crash in August 2015, followed by a big crash in January 2016. Followed by big rallies back both times because the Fed went back to "happy talk," but if you factor out that volatility, you're about where you were 2 years ago.

People are not making any money in stocks. Hedge funds are not making money. Institutions are not making money. It's one of the most difficult investing environments that I've ever seen in a very long time.

The 2008 crisis is still fresh in people's minds. People know a lot less about 1998, partly because it was almost 20 years ago. It was right in the middle of that crash. It was an international monetary crisis that started in Thailand in June of 1997, spread to Indonesia and Korea, and then finally Russia by August of '98. Everyone was building a firewall around Brazil. It was exactly like dominoes falling.

Think of countries as dominoes where Thailand falls followed by Malaysia, Indonesia, Korea and then Russia. The next domino was going to be Brazil, and everyone (including the IMF and the United States) said, "Let's build a firewall around Brazil and make sure Brazil doesn't collapse."

Then came Long-Term Capital Management. The next domino was not a country. It was a hedge fund, although it was a hedge fund that was as big as a country in terms of its financial footings. I was the general counsel of that firm. I negotiated that bailout. I think a many of my readers might be familiar with my role there. The importance of that role is that I had a front-row seat.

I'm in the conference room, in the deal room, at a big New York law firm. There were hundreds of lawyers. There were 14 banks in the LTCM bailout fund. There were 19 other banks in a one billion dollar unsecured credit facility. Included were Treasury officials, Federal Reserve officials, other government officials, Long-Term Capital, our partners. It was a thundering herd of lawyers, but I was on point for one side of the deal and had to coordinate all that.

It was a 4 billion dollar all-cash deal, which we put together in 72 hours with no due diligence. Anyone who's raised money for his or her company, or done deals can think about that and imagine how difficult it would be to get a group of banks to write you a check for 4 billion dollars in 3 days.

Those involved can say they bailed out Long-Term capital. They really bailed out themselves. If Long-Term Capital had failed, and it was on the way to failure, 1.3 trillion dollars of derivatives would've been flipped back to Wall Street.

The banks involved would've had to run out and cover that 1.3 trillion dollars in exposure, because they thought they were hedged. They had one side of the trade with Long-Term and had the other side of the trade with each other.

When you create that kind of hole in everyone's balance sheets and everyone has to run and cover, every market in the world would've been closed. Not just bond markets or stock markets. Banks would've failed sequentially. It would've been what came close to happening in 2008.

Very few people knew about this. There were a bunch of lawyers there, but we were all one floor of a big New York law firm. The Fed was on the phone. We moved the money. We got it done. They issued a press release.

It was like foaming an airport runway. You've got a jet aircraft with a lot of passengers and four engines in flames, and you foam the runways. The fire trucks are standing by, and somehow you land it and put out the fire. Life went on.

After that, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates twice, once at a scheduled FOMC meeting on September 29, 1998, and again at an unscheduled meeting. The Fed can do that. The Fed doesn't have to have a meeting. They can just do an executive committee-type meeting on the phone, and that's what they did. That was the last time, in October 15, 1998, that the Fed cut interest rates outside of a scheduled meeting. It was done to "put out the fire." Life went on.

Then 1999 was one of the best years in stock market history, and it peaked in 2000 and then crashed again. That was not a financial panic. It was just a stock market crash. My point is that in 1998, we came within hours of shutting every market in the world. There were a set of lessons that should've been learned from that, but they were not learned.

The government went out and did the opposite of what you would do if you were trying to prevent it from happening again. What they should've done was banned most derivatives, broken up big banks, had more transparency, etc. They didn't. They did the opposite.

The government actually repealed swaps regulations, so you could have more derivative over-the-counter instead of trading them on exchanges. They repealed Glass-Steagall so the commercial banks could get into investment banking. The banks got bigger. The SEC changed the rules to allow more leverage by broker-dealers rather than less leverage.

Then Basel 2, coming out of the Bank for International Settlements in Basel, Switzerland, changed the bank capital rules so they could use these flawed value-at-risk models to increase their leverage. Everything, if you had a list of things that you should've done to prevent crises from happening again, they did the opposite.

They let banks act like hedge funds. They let everybody trade more derivatives. They allowed more leverage, less regulation, bad models, etc.

I was sitting there in 2005, 2006, even earlier, saying, "This is going to happen again, and it's going to be worse." I gave a series of lectures at Northwestern University. I was an advisor to the McCain campaign. I advised the U.S. Treasury. I warned everybody I could find.

This is all in my new, The Road to Ruin. I don't like making claims like that without backing it up, so if you read the book, I tell the stories. Hopefully, it's an entertaining and readable, but it's serious in the sense that I could see it coming a mile away.

Now, I didn't say, "It's going to be subprime mortgages here," the kind of thing you saw if you saw the movie The Big Short. Obviously, there were some hedge fund operators who had sussed out the subprime mortgage disaster. To me, it didn't matter. When I say it didn't matter, the point that I was looking at was the dynamic instability of the system as a whole.

I was looking at the buildup of scale, the buildup of derivatives, the dynamic processes and the fact that one spark could set the whole forest on fire. It didn't matter what the spark was. It didn't matter what the snowflake was. I knew the whole thing was going to collapse. Eight years after the crisis of 2008, nothing's been fixed.

What's going to come is a crisis, and it's going to come very quickly.

Regards,

Jim Rickards
for The Daily Reckoning

P.S. The timing is perfect for my brand-new book, The Road to Ruin.

I meant The Road to Ruin to be a fire bell in the night, warning everyone I can about the crisis I see coming and what they can do to protect their wealth. I promise you governments and the global elites don't want this book to exist.

Here's some more of what you'll find in my book:

➤A tool to steal your wealth that, when revealed to Americans, will cause confusion, stealth financial losses and dismay. Start at the top of Page 68 to get the full story

➤Why Dec. 18, July 28, Aug. 4 and Aug. 15 are four crucial dates you need to put on your calendar that mark the elites' quiet ongoing crusade for world money. Page 61

➤The "Brisbane rules" that could instantly transform any cash you have into what's called "forced shares of stock." They’re exactly that… a piece of paper you don't want and you never asked for. Don't let them do this to you — see Page 25

➤Shocking details of what may be called the "World Citizens Database." (Prepare for your unique global identifier number.) It will help the global elites make sure you pay your "fair share" in taxes and much more. I show you all the official proof, starting on Page 77

➤The New World Order that will be imposed on the entire planet. (Put away the tinfoil hat. This is very real, and it will undermine individual governments and your personal liberty.) The well-documented truth I present on Page 86 is much more frightening than any fiction I or anyone else could ever dream up.

I could go on and on. Look, I want you to have this book. And I want you to share it with anyone you can. You can get your copy for free, while everyone else pays $23. It's not about the money for me. Getting the message out is far more important. Go here now to learn how to get your copy today. I'm confident you'll be glad you did.

The post The Road to Ruin appeared first on Daily Reckoning.

Gold Seeker Closing Report: Gold and Silver Gain About 1%

Posted: 15 Nov 2016 01:28 PM PST

Gold gained $13.21 to $1231.41 in Asia before it fell back to $1219.61 at about 9AM EST, but it then bounced back higher into midday and ended with a gain of 0.8%. Silver rose to as high as $17.133 and ended with a gain of 1.31%.

Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts - Stock Option Expiry Friday, Comex Options Next Week

Posted: 15 Nov 2016 01:28 PM PST

Silver Price and The Winds of Complacency

Posted: 15 Nov 2016 01:08 PM PST

Jeffrey Lewis

Silver Price and The Winds of Complacency

Posted: 15 Nov 2016 01:02 PM PST

Not even a surprise Presidential election result could sever the bonds that have held prices in check for more than 5 years. From a mainstream media perspective, the financial system is a neat little house of cards. Made to look like sturdy boxes on a hilltop; institutional pillars …. that are all the same. The cards are carefully controlled and non-random. They are rigged. Precious metals will always be rigged to some degree.

Silver Price and The Winds of Complacency

Posted: 15 Nov 2016 12:30 PM PST

While there should be a relationship between real supply, demand, and price – it is obscure at best. The directional movement of world price depends on how the large commercial traders on the COMEX decide to make it. Short term, if it's profitable for them to move the price lower, they will do it. And when they are positioned to let the price move up they will let it. Long-term, that which is ripe for disruption always disrupts eventually. We saw a glimpse of this between August 2010 and April 2011 when 'price discovery' briefly, yet undoubtedly shifted away from paper to physical.

This Is What a Market Mania Looks Like

Posted: 15 Nov 2016 11:37 AM PST

The Trump election has ignited a market mania, but in economic terms, nothing real has changed and the relief probably won't last long, posit Rudi Fronk and Jim Anthony, cofounders of Seabridge Gold. The Trump election has ignited a market mania, to everyone's surprise. Our sense is that it reflects an enormous relief that the Obama years of deadlock and do-nothing have finally ended. It's how you would feel if, after eight years, someone finally stopped hitting you with a hammer; you would probably feel pretty good. But in economic terms, nothing real has changed and the relief probably won't last long.

Our #1 Cannabis Stock Pick is Up 56% in Past Week, Up 365% Year to Date

Posted: 15 Nov 2016 10:09 AM PST

Gold Stock Bull

Trump's deficits will wreck dollar without a gold standard, Turk tells KWN

Posted: 15 Nov 2016 10:01 AM PST

1:04p ET Tuesday, November 15, 2016

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

In a two-part interview with King World News, GoldMoney founder and GATA consultant James Turk predicts that a Trump administration in the United States will be forced into running more big deficits financed by money printing and that this will damage the dollar but that returning to a gold standard with a much higher gold price would restore prosperity and stability. The interview's two parts can be found at King World News here:

http://kingworldnews.com/james-turk-what-donald-trump-faces-is-very-diff...

http://kingworldnews.com/is-president-trump-really-going-to-revalue-gold...

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org



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K92 Mining Begins Gold Production at Kainantu Mine

Company Announcement
Wednesday, October 5, 2016

K92 Mining Inc. is pleased to announce that gold production has commenced from the Irumafimpa gold deposit.

Ian Stalker, K92 Chief Executive Officer, says: "This milestone is highly significant for our company, and for this region of Papua New Guinea. A great deal of thanks goes to the entire team on site in PNG in achieving production ahead of schedule and on budget. The rehabilitation of the Irumafimpa gold mine, process plant, and associated infrastructure commenced in late March and is now complete. As an enhancement of the processing facility, we are also pleased to note that the installation of a new drum scrubber is also nearing completion and commissioning of this will be completed by the end of the month. ..."

...For the remainder of the announcement:

http://www.k92mining.com/2016/10/6077/



Help keep GATA going

GATA is a civil rights and educational organization based in the United States and tax-exempt under the U.S. Internal Revenue Code. Its e-mail dispatches are free, and you can subscribe at:

http://www.gata.org

To contribute to GATA, please visit:

http://www.gata.org/node/16

Trump Calls For An End To The Violence

Posted: 15 Nov 2016 09:30 AM PST

Go Trump we are all behind you and want America to be great again ,Best thing you can do your country is stop the Zionist lobby and put them all in prison.. The Financial Armageddon Economic Collapse Blog tracks trends and forecasts , futurists , visionaries , free investigative...

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TF Metals Report: Watching the yuan

Posted: 15 Nov 2016 08:41 AM PST

11:45a ET Tuesday, November 15, 2016

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Pops in the gold price lately have followed devaluations of the Chinese yuan, of which another one is underway, the TF Metals Report's Turd Ferguson writes today. His analysis is headlined "Watching the Yuan" and it's posted here:

http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/blog/7985/watching-yuan

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org



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Sandspring Resources Commences 2016 Exploration Campaign

Company Announcement
August 17, 2016

Sandspring Resources Ltd. (TSX VENTURE:SSP, US OTC: SSPXF) is pleased to announce commencement of the 2016 exploration campaign at its Toroparu Gold Project in Guyana, South America.

In 2015 the company completed a 3,700-meter diamond drilling program on the promising Sona Hill Prospect, located 5 kilometers southeast of the main Toroparu deposit. Sona Hill is the easternmost gold anomaly in a cluster of 10 gold features located within a 20-by-7-kilometer hydrothermal alteration halo around Toroparu. Drilling at Sona Hill in 2012 and in 2015 intercepted high-grade mineralization in both saprolite and bedrock, and confirmed the continuity and grade potential of the Sona Hill mineralization.

For the remainder of the announcement and highlights of the 2015 drill program:

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/sandspring-resources-commences-2016-explo...



Help keep GATA going

GATA is a civil rights and educational organization based in the United States and tax-exempt under the U.S. Internal Revenue Code. Its e-mail dispatches are free, and you can subscribe at:

http://www.gata.org

To contribute to GATA, please visit:

http://www.gata.org/node/16

Watching The Yuan

Posted: 15 Nov 2016 08:38 AM PST

With stock market bullishness at extreme levels and the gold permabears out in force, a sharp rally in gold from here would certainly catch almost everyone by surprise. So, could a rally be coming on the days ahead? Perhaps you should just keep your eyes focused upon the yuan. It may once again be foreshadowing what is to come next.

Ron Paul on Trump Transition

Posted: 15 Nov 2016 08:30 AM PST

I Wonder if Trump would offer Ron Paul a position. The Financial Armageddon Economic Collapse Blog tracks trends and forecasts , futurists , visionaries , free investigative journalists , researchers , Whistelblowers , truthers and many more

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Koos Jansen: We paid for a copy of the Fort Knox audit report, so where is it?

Posted: 15 Nov 2016 08:12 AM PST

11:15a ET Tuesday, November 15, 2016

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Gold researcher Koos Jansen reports today how the U.S. Mint has failed to produce a copy of a gold audit report for which he paid more than $3,100 back in September. Why, in the digital age, anyone should have to pay that kind of money for a government report is hard to understand -- unless, of course, the report contains information whose disclosure might be inconvenient to the U.S. government's longstanding policy of gold price suppression. Jansen's report is headlined "Dear US Mint, We Gave You the FOIA Funds, Now Give Us the Fort Knox Audit Documents" and it's posted at Bullion Star here:

https://www.bullionstar.com/blogs/koos-jansen/dear-us-mint-we-gave-you-t...

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org



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We Are Amid the Biggest Financial Bubble in History;
When It Bursts, Bullion Owned in the Safest Way Will Protect Wealth

With GoldCore you can own allocated -- and most importantly -- segregated coins and bars in Switzerland, Singapore, and Hong Kong.

Switzerland, Singapore, and Hong Kong remain extremely safe jurisdictions for storing bullion. Avoid exchange-traded funds and digital gold providers where you are a price taker. Ensure that you are outright legal owner of your bullion. If you do not own segregated bullion that you can visit, inspect, and take delivery of, you are exposed.

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Visit us at: http://www.goldcore.com



Help keep GATA going

GATA is a civil rights and educational organization based in the United States and tax-exempt under the U.S. Internal Revenue Code. Its e-mail dispatches are free, and you can subscribe at:

http://www.gata.org

To contribute to GATA, please visit:

http://www.gata.org/node/16

Gold: The Cost Of Production Is Near

Posted: 15 Nov 2016 08:07 AM PST

Graceland Update

FirstGroup riding high on the dollar as its US businesses drive growth

Posted: 15 Nov 2016 07:15 AM PST

This posting includes an audio/video/photo media file: Download Now

Dear Trump, This is what we want -- Steve Pieczenik

Posted: 15 Nov 2016 07:00 AM PST

Now that Donald Trump has won the popular vote, former US State Department official, Steve Pieczenik, discusses with the American people what we want and what we need in the new American presidential administration. The Financial Armageddon Economic Collapse Blog tracks trends...

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Silver and the Train Wreck

Posted: 15 Nov 2016 06:35 AM PST

The U.S. National Debt is a “train-wreck.” The official debt is nearly $20 trillion and the unfunded liabilities are $100 – $200 trillion, depending on who is counting. It can never be repaid. Implications are dire. Official debt doubles about every 8 years. Does $80 trillion of official debt in the early 2030s sound viable? Per Krugman there is no problem. Consider the source. Denial is not a winning strategy, but it does prolong the period before the crash. The losers in the crash will probably not be the financial or political elite. That leaves the rest of us.

Gold Mining Shares Are a Lousy Investment

Posted: 15 Nov 2016 04:53 AM PST

This year’s turnaround in Gold Mining shares had helped to buoy the hopes and dreams of investors who were ‘betting’ that their long, agonizing wait for euphoric, exponential gains is over.  They continue to believe that the future for the Gold Mining Industry is quite rosy. Unfortunately, they are probably wrong.

Gold Commitments of Traders

Posted: 15 Nov 2016 04:38 AM PST

No wonder gold got clocked like it did! Hedge funds were actually busy adding more longs and covering shorts over the past week’s reporting period. As soon as those downside support levels were taken out after the election results were digested, gold bulls were getting mauled in a big way.

Human Derivatives and Gold - The Oligarchs’ Plan to Monetize Humanity

Posted: 15 Nov 2016 03:14 AM PST

The greed-diseased and power-obsessed Deep State oligarchs hate you for your freedom and love you for your money, and they are accelerating their plans to strip you of both. There are two things standing in their way: cash, and precious metals. The oligarchs are doing everything in their power to falsely discredit both of them in the eyes of the people. Cash and precious metals are physical manifestations of financial and human liberty. Liberty, which is indivisible, is the absolute last thing the oligarchs have in mind for us, as there is no profit in it for them. The oligarchs realize that the people are fast waking up to what is being done to them. While the Oligarchy remains an unimaginably dangerous enemy, it was wounded in the United States presidential election, is acting more erratically and illogically, and is starting to make serious mistakes. How we, the people, push forward from here will determine whether we remain free, or become slaves to the greatest Force of Evil ever known to mankind, the Deep State oligarchs.

Breaking News And Best Of The Web

Posted: 15 Nov 2016 01:37 AM PST

Interest rates becoming the main story. Bond yields and mortgage rates up, emerging market bonds and stocks down. Gold and silver stabilizing, mining stocks begin to recover. Political class still searching for an explanation (see “Best of the Web”). Trump’s cabinet takes shape, with mostly old a few new faces.   Best Of The Web […]

The post Breaking News And Best Of The Web appeared first on DollarCollapse.com.

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