Friday, September 30, 2016

Gold World News Flash

Gold World News Flash


Will The ECB Buy Stocks?

Posted: 30 Sep 2016 01:00 AM PDT

Authored by Nick Jounis and Kim Liu via ABN AMRO,

  • Debate about the ECB’s stimulus options have continued to rage, with an equity purchase plan mentioned as a possibility
  • We think the ECB could legally buy ETFs that fit its requirements…
  • … but it would be controversial and we question the benefits
  • An ETF programme could total EUR 200bn, which would not be large compared to the overall QE programme
  • …and assuming a market-weighted allocation, it would benefit the core more than the periphery…
  • …while it is questionable whether it would have a major sustained impact on equity prices, economic growth and inflation
  • The risk of losses is higher for equities than investment-grade credit
  • Ultimately, we do not think that the ECB will follow other central banks and turn to buying equities via ETF purchases any time soon, if at all

We consider whether the ECB will turn to equity purchases

The ECB stepped up its unconventional policy around the middle of 2014, by taking its deposit rate into negative territory. Early in 2015, it launched a large-scale QE programme focused on public sector bonds. Since then it has added regional bonds and investment-grade credit bonds to the mix. Despite the positive effects on financial conditions, the outlook for growth and inflation remains disappointing. At the same time, there are market concerns that there are not enough bonds available to be bought and that current monetary policy is losing its effectiveness. This has led to questions about what else the ECB can add to its policy mix. In this research note, we consider whether the ECB will turn to equity purchases. We first look at whether equity purchases are possible from a legal and practical perspective and what such a programme could look like. We then go on to assess how effective buying equities would be in boosting equity prices, and hence growth and inflation, drawing on the experience of Japan. Finally, we look at the risks that the ECB would be exposing itself to. We do this in a Q&A format.

1. Would equity purchases be legal?

Although equities are not part of its collateral framework, and there will likely be legal challenges and controversy, there is no law against the ECB buying equities.

ECB officials have suggested it is an option

Comments from ECB officials suggest it is an option, with the main doubts relating to its effectiveness rather than its legality. Two of the most important comments were made by Chief Economist Praet back in October 2015 and by President Draghi at the Q&A session of the 2014 December Governing Council meeting. Reuters reported (see here) that when Mr Praet was asked whether the ECB would buy equities he cautioned that there might be little point in building a small position in a new asset class. Meanwhile, President Mario Draghi was asked which kind of options for asset  purchases were discussed in the Governing Council (see here). He said that the inclusion of all assets was discussed, with the exception of gold.

Court rulings give ECB room to manoeuver

Meanwhile, the German constitutional court and European Court of Justice (ECJ) rulings on the OMT would comfort the ECB that any legal claims would bear little or no fruit. The German court decided that the OMT was permissible under German law. The decision therefore indirectly paved the way for the ECB to carry on with its QE purchases. Although the German court expressed concerns and gave six conditions, which the ECB must follow, we think that these would still allow equity purchases. The ECJ also ruled the OMT was legal, concluding that ‘the ECB must have a broad discretion when framing and implementing the EU’s monetary policy, and that courts must exercise a considerable degree of caution when reviewing the ECB’s activity, since they lack the expertise and experience which the ECB has in this area’.

Precedence from other central banks

In addition, there is a precedence of the policy being adopted by other central banks. The prime example is BoJ, but also other central banks like SNB, the Czech central bank and Hong Kong’s central bank have used this policy tool before.

2. How would the ECB buy equities?

BoJ’s ETF purchase structure could be used as blueprint

Since the ECB has never bought equities before, it lacks specific operational knowledge and experience in this area. We think that, as an example, the structure that the BoJ uses could work. The BoJ purchases equities by buying ETFs via a trust bank and a money trust, which track the Tokyo Stock Price Index (Topix), the Nikkei 225 Stock average or the JPX-Nikkei index 400.

Hiring an external manager is not new for the ECB as it appointed asset managers before for its ABS programme. As under the ABS programme, the ECB would continue to have full control over the purchases and will be able to give explicit instructions prior to approving the purchases. Furthermore, ETFs are known for their flexibility and they can be tailor-made to the central bank’s requirements. The inclusion of these assets will therefore increase flexibility for the ECB to target specific credit easing. For example, the BoJ tweaked its initial programme by buying ETFs that focus on domestic firms which proactively make investments in physical and human capital. More recently, the BoJ changed its purchase composition by skewing more buys to the market capitalised Topix index. The shift comes at the expense of the price weighted Nikkei 225. The ECB could use similar requirements and tweaks to ensure the breakdown in terms of the equity markets of the various member states that it regards desirable.

3. How big could an ECB ETF purchase programme be?

European ETF amounts to EUR 450 bn…

Here we can also use the BoJ experience as benchmark. The European ETF market currently amounts to around EUR 450bn, which is larger than the Japanese market (EUR 180bn) but much smaller than the US market (EUR 1.780trn), according to consultancy firm ETFGI. In comparison, the size of the European ETF market, roughly equals the size of the current eurozone regional bond market (EUR 400bn) and is somewhat smaller than the supranational market (500bn).

…but it could grow significantly

However, this is only a starting point as an ETF programme would lead the market to growing in size. The Japanese ETF market experienced strong growth following the stepping up of the BoJ’s ETF purchase targets. The Japanese ETF market experienced the strongest year-on-year growth in  2013, 2015 and 2016. For these years, the increase of ETF assets and the number of ETFs easily outpaced the Nikkei 225 index. The developments in 2016 are extraordinary as the Nikkei 225 index declined while ETF assets and the number of ETFs continued to grow. We think it is likely that the BoJ’s decision to buy additional ETFs in December 2015, which focus on investing in human and physical capital, has been supporting the growth of the Japanese ETF market.

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Size of the programme could be around EUR 200bn…

The  BoJ has increased and tweaked its ETF program on several occasions and is expected to buy at an annual rate of 6trn yen per year. The most recent data show that the BoJ owns about 60% of the total Japanese ETF market. It is difficult to know what impact an ECB ETF programme would have on the growth in the market. However, judging by the Japanese experience, a conservative assumption is that the market could grow by 30% on the announcement of a large scale ETF program by the ECB. This would mean that the market would increase from currently EUR 450bn to around EUR 600bn. Again taking a conservative approach, we estimate that the ECB would then be able to buy around 30% of the total size, which would equate to an ECB ETF programme of around EUR 200bn.

…which is small compare to overall QE programme

As a result, he ECB’s ETF programme could be much larger than our estimate of the corporate bond programme (EUR 75bn), roughly equal in size to our projection of the supranational purchases (EUR 175bn) but much smaller than our projection of the covered bond and ABS programme (EUR 300bn) let alone the government/national agency bond programme (EUR 1190bn).

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This means that a potential ETF programme should firstly be regarded as an add-on instead of the new heart of the QE programme. However, the European ETF market could potentially grow much more rapidly than we assume, as was the case in Japan. So the risks to these estimates are to the upside. Still, it would not be large compared to the overall size of the QE programme.

4. Which countries would benefit?

ECB would move to market weighted approach and keep risk sharing regime

At the core of the rules of the current QE programme for government and national agency bonds, is the allotment of the QE purchases via the capital key and the regime in which national central banks are responsible for the risks arising from the purchases of their own national bonds. Although President Draghi recently said that the Governing Council has tasked the committees to explore the possibilities (including the capital key) for a smooth execution of the programme, we think that the ECB will be hesitant in changing these key concepts for the public sector purchase programme.

However, we note that the ECB has already moved away from the capital key for its corporate bond purchases, while it has also adopted risk sharing for this programme. Given the similar deviations of the equity and corporate bond market structures to the GDP weighted capital key approach, we would argue that the ECB would choose for a market weighted approach. In addition, we would argue that as in the case of the corporate bond programme, the ECB would adopt a risk sharing regime.

France, Holland and Germany would benefit, peripheral countries would lose

These choices would mean that certain countries could benefit from a market-weighted approach, assuming no additional tweaks, while others would be treated less favourably. The build-up of the iShares MSCI eurozone ETF index shows that France (32%), Germany (30%), the Netherlands (10%), Spain (10%) and Italy (7%) are the largest constituents. An analysis of the composition of the Stoxx Europe 600 index gives a similar ranking, when excluding non-eurozone members like the UK and Switzerland. An analysis on comparable ETFs issued by DB X-trackers and Vanguard gives broadly similar results.

When comparing the weights of the iShares MSCI eurozone ETF with the revised ECB capital key, France, the Netherlands, Germany and Belgium would benefit from a market-weighted approach. Peripheral countries would surprisingly benefit less as their capital key shares are larger than their weightings in the iShares MSCI eurozone ETF index.

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5. Would an ECB ETF programme boost equity prices?

The experience of the BoJ’s ETF purchases, indicates that they did little to boost equity prices on a sustained basis in Japan.

On the surface, Japan’s NIKKEI index outperformed the MSCI world, the S&P 500 and the euro Stoxx indices between April 2014 and December 2015. This coincided with the stepping up of purchases in two steps in April and October 2014. The chart below shows the rise in ETF purchases roughly tracked Japanese equity outperformance during this period.

Equity gains following Japan’s ETF purchases probably reflect yen weakness

However, this is far from the whole story. First of all, Japanese equities have underperformed since December 2015 even though ETF purchases continued. Indeed, the recent further stepping up of purchases does not seem to have had much of an impact. So something else seems to have caused these swings. This brings us to the second point. The relative performance of Japanese equities seems to have been much more closely linked to movements in the yen over this period. The sharp fall in the yen spurred Japanese equities up to December 2015, and the subsequent rise in the yen led to their underperformance (see second chart).

Japan is not the only country where the authorities have ‘intervened’ in the equity market. Of course China’s recent experience of trying to prop up equities is also far from a success story. The bottom line is that there is a lot of uncertainty about whether ECB ETF purchases would have such a big impact on equity prices without going hand-in-hand with euro weakness.

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6. Would equity purchases boost growth and inflation?

Most likely the effects on growth and inflation would be modest. QE works in five ways. First of all, it can boost the price of the assets purchased. Above we have expressed doubts about whether an ECB equity programme would have a major sustained impact on equity prices. But what if the ECB launched an ETF programme that did lead to a rise in equity prices of say 10% contrary to the evidence in Japan. Would that have a big impact on economic growth and therefore inflation? Here we are also doubtful.

Following the financial crisis, ECB economists looked at the impact on consumption from changes in household wealth. Their estimates of the change in consumption from a 10% rise in various types of wealth are shown in the table below.

Although the impact of a 10% rise in currency and deposits is very large (leading to a 2.4% rise in consumer spending in the long run) a similar rise in equities and mutual fund shares has a much smaller effect (0.3%). This would equate to an only 0.2% rise in GDP. One reason for the small effect is that eurozone households on aggregate tend to hold less equities relative to their income than those in other advanced economies. The impact on inflation would be similar to that on GDP at 0.1-0.2%.

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A second way QE can work is through portfolio re-balancing effects. If the central bank buys safe assets such as government bonds, it can push investors out of these into riskier assets, boosting their price as well. These second round effects are unlikely in the case of equities as they are already at the far end of the risk spectrum in terms of eurozone assets. However, it could be that investors move outside of the eurozone, to for instance emerging market assets, which could push down the euro and therefore raise growth and inflation. Still, given the size of the programme and stickiness of mandates, the resulting fall in the euro would unlikely be large. This is especially the case in trade-weighted terms, given the eurozone’s trade is dominated by the US and other EU member states.

Third, credit easing. By increasing demand for equities, it may increase the availability of (in this case equity) finance for companies. These effects are probably modest given the current relatively favourable climate on equity markets. Fourth, QE puts liquidity into the banking system (as it buys assets and gives money to investors who eventually put it in the bank). It is hoped then that some of the liquidity in the banking system is lent out to households and companies. The ECB’s existing QE programmes have already reached EUR 1 trillion (and rising) so it is debatable whether an extra EUR 200bn would make a big difference in spurring liquidity and eventually bank lending.

Finally, there is a signalling effect. By buying equities, investors could change their perception of the ECB’s reaction function, and decide the central bank is willing to do whatever it takes. This in itself could raise inflation expectations, though it is difficult judge to what extent markets would be convinced, given some of the issues we have raised above.

7.  What would be the risks associated with an ECB ETF programme?

The potential risks are relatively high. Although the ECB has recently increased the risk on its balance sheet by buying investment-grade corporate bonds, equity purchases are riskier still. The ECB does not have to worry about price swings with regard to investment-grade bonds because it is a buy-and-hold investor and therefore only needs to be concerned that the company will pay up when the bond matures. According to S&P, the cumulative default rate on investment grade debt is around 1%, which means that losses would be relatively limited.

On the other hand, the only way the ECB can get ETFs off its balance sheet is to sell them, so price swings matter.  If equity prices were to fall sharply, there is no guarantee that they will recoup those gains over the time horizon that the ECB would like to sell. In addition, the Eurosystem’s accounting framework suggests that ETF holdings will need to be measured at end-of-period market value. That could mean that any price fall would show up relatively quickly.

Conclusion: ECB equity purchases seem unlikely in the near term

Overall, the ECB would be increasing the risk on its balance sheet for uncertain, and at best modest gains in economic growth and inflation. In addition, the ECB has other stimulus options (even though the effectiveness is diminishing). Furthermore, the current situation of moderate economic growth and relatively elevated equity valuations, also makes the case for ECB equity purchases weak.

In the near term, the ECB will likely extend its public sector purchases later this year, including taking measures to expand the universe of  government bonds it can buy. We do not think launching an ETF programme is even a remote possibility.

Looking further ahead, if there were to be a large demand shock that led to a collapse in equity prices, that would make an a ETF purchase plan more likely. In the case that equity valuations were unusually depressed (as was the case following the financial crisis for instance) such a programme could also be more effective in boosting equity prices. However, even then, the cost-benefit analysis would likely make most members of the Governing Council cautious.

BANK RUN AT DEUTSCHE BANK/DB STOCK FALTERS BADLY/THE 2ND LARGEST GERMAN BANK COMMERZBANK SUSPENDS DIVIDEND AND FIRES 20% OF WORKFORCE

Posted: 30 Sep 2016 12:00 AM PDT

from Harvey Organ:

HUGE LIQUIDITY PROBLEM IN EUROPE DUE TO SCARCITY OF DOLLARS AS DERIVATIVES BLOW UP OVER THERE/USA'S KERRY ISSUES THE RUSSIAN AN ULTIMATUM TO STOP BOMBING ALEPPO OR ELSE../HUGE PROBLEMS IN THE SAUDI KINGDOM AS THE RIYAL COLLAPSES AND SCARCITY OF DOLLARS OVER THERE AS WELL/AT THE COMEX ANOTHER HUGE AMOUNT OF GOLD LEAVES

… In silver, the total open interest FELL by 1010 contracts DOWN to 200,476. The open interest ROSE DESPITE THE FACT THAT the silver price was DOWN 5 cents in yesterday's trading .In ounces, the OI is still represented by just MORE THAN 1 BILLION oz i.e. 1.0002 BILLION TO BE EXACT or 144% of annual global silver production (ex Russia &ex China).

Read More @ Harveyorganblog.com

Federal Reserve Note Dying & Gold & Silver Recognized

Posted: 29 Sep 2016 11:01 PM PDT

The Federal Reserve Note “Dollar” Is Indeed Dying, but Not Next Week By Clint Siegner, Money Metals Exchange Some say the U.S. dollar may die 5 days hence. The Chinese renminbi will kill...

{This is a content summary only. Click on the blog title to continue reading this post, share your comments, browse the website, and more!}

Green Light For Stock Markets In 2017

Posted: 29 Sep 2016 10:02 PM PDT

We believe the stock market correction is running its course. The seasonally weak month of September has only produced one significant down day. Our expectation was that the retracement would take stocks between 5% and 10% lower, as explained in ALL Markets Going Down Except The US Dollar. However, it seems that the stock market is quite resilient. Two weeks after that strong down days, we have not seen any meaningful sign of a continuation of that retracement. That does bode well for an end of year rally, and, even more important, continued strength in the stock market into 2017.

Nestlé Buys Drought-Stricken Town’s Water Supply

Posted: 29 Sep 2016 08:30 PM PDT

by Julie Fidler, Natural Society:

Calls have come from all over the world to boycott Nestlé after the company bought a drought-stricken Canadian community's water supply, and more than 150,000 Facebook users have taken to the social media site to voice their outrage. [1]

Authorities in Centre Wellington, a community in Ontario, scrambled over the summer to find a competing bid when it learned that Nestlé had put in a bid of its own on a spring water well in the region. The town's leaders wanted to safeguard a water supply for the township's fast-growing population of 30,000, which Kelly Linton, the mayor, says is expected to grow to 50,000 by 2041. [2]

Linton said the municipality used a numbered company to submit an "aggressive bid" for the 5-hectare site.

"We put in more money than they did and we removed all conditions."

He did not specify the dollar amount of the bid.

Centre Wellington had forged an agreement with Nestlé 18 months earlier, giving the company the right to respond. Said Linton:

Read More @ NaturalSociety.com

This Is How Much Liquidity Deutsche Bank Has At This Moment, And What Happens Next

Posted: 29 Sep 2016 07:55 PM PDT

It is not solvency, or the lack of capital - a vague, synthetic, and usually quite arbitrary concept, determined by regulators - that kills a bank; it is - as Dick Fuld will tell anyone who bothers to listen - the loss of (access to) liquidity: cold, hard, fungible (something Jon Corzine knew all too well when he commingled and was caught) cash, that pushes a bank into its grave, usually quite rapidly: recall that it took Lehman just a few days for its stock to plunge from the high double digits to zero.

It is also liquidity, or rather concerns about it, that sent Deutsche Bank stock crashing to new all time lows earlier today: after all, the investing world already knew for nearly two weeks that its capitalization is insufficient. As we reported earlier this week, it was a report by Citigroup, among many other, that found how badly undercapitalized the German lender is, noting that DB's "leverage ratio, at 3.4%, looks even worse relative to the 4.5% company target by 2018" and calculated that while he only models €2.9bn in litigation charges over 2H16-2017 - far less than the $14 billion settlement figure proposed by the DOJ - and includes a successful disposal of a 70% stake in Postbank at end-2017 for 0.4x book he still only reaches a CET 1 ratio of 11.6% by end-2018, meaning the bank would have a Tier 1 capital €3bn shortfall to the company target of 12.5%, and a leverage ratio of 3.9%, resulting in an €8bn shortfall to the target of 4.5%.

When Citi's note exposing DB's undercapitalization came out, it had precisely zero impact on the price of DB stock. Why? Because as we said above, capitalization - and solvency - tends to be a largely worthless, pro-forma concept. However, when Bloomberg reported today that select funds have withdrawn "some excess cash and positions held at the lender" the stock immediately plunged: the reason is that this had everything to do with not only DB's suddenly crashing liquidity, but the pernicious feedback loop, where once a source of liquidity leaves, the departure tends to spook other such sources, leading to an outward bound liqjuidity cascade. Again: just ask Lehman (and AIG) for the details.

Which then brings us to the $64 trillion (roughly the same amount as DB's gross notional derivative exposure) question: since DB is suddenly experiencing a sharp "liquidity event", how much liquidity does Deutsche Bank have access to as of this moment, to offset this event? The answer would allow us to calculate how long DB may have in a worst case scenario if we knew the rate of liquidity outflow.

For the answer, we go to a just released note by Goldman Sachs, which admits that it is now facing "crisis" questions from clients, among which "can a large European bank face a liquidity event" to wit"

Deutsche Bank stands at the center of the European financial system - it is a major counterpart of all relevant European banks, and broader. Recent reports of potential litigation hits have compounded capital concerns, and raised the overall level of market anxiety. "Crisis" questions are being asked: "is there risk of a financial crisis re-run" and "can a large European bank face a liquidity event"?

So what is the answer: how much liquidity does Deutsche Bank have access to? The answer is two fold, with the first part focusing on central bank, in this case ECB, backstops in both $ and €. 

Goldman starts with an overview of said back-stops, summarized below. These facilities are available to all Eurozone banks (and, naturally, also to Deutsche Bank) – they are generous in terms of volume (full allotment), price (fixed rate at 0%) and tenure (from short term, all the way to 4-years). These ECB facilities are key to ensuring the bank's long-term funding stability, in Goldman's view, and were put in place following the funding market fallout in 2007, in order to contain the effects from the Lehman crisis. They were further bolstered to contain the Eurozone sovereign crisis in 2011-12. All of the liquidity provisions remain in place, and broadly, they fall into the following two categories:

  1. Regular market operations: 1-week Main Refinancing Operations or "MRO" (priced @0%), and 3-month Long Term Refinancing Operations or "LTRO" (@0%);
  2. Non-standard measures, which split between € funding facilities with 4-year Targeted LTROs (@0%, with the option to fall to -0.4% if lending targets are met) and the emergency liquidity assistance to solvent financial institutions and a US$ funding facility: 1-week US$ MRO (@0.86%).

Stepping away from the ECB - because if Deutsche is forced to come crawling to Draghi and beg for central bank liquidity assistance to continue as a going concern, the outcome may be just as dire (recall the stigma associated with US banks using the Fed's Discount Window) especially since  unlike Lehman, DB has nearly €600 billion in deposits which are susceptible to a retail depositor run - what about Deutsche Bank's own liquidity position? It is this which appears to be concerning the market most, because as Goldman writes, following the Bloomberg report that hedge fund clients have pulled excess cash, the market has reacted aggressively (ADR down 6.7%), indicating concerns have moved from DBK's equity to question the resilience of the banks' funding position.

Below, Goldman provides an overview of DBK's liquidity position, noting that its last reported liquidity reserve stood at €223 bn or ~20% of its total assets. DBK's high quality liquid assets (or HQLA) balance stood at €196 bn or 16% of its total assets; its liquidity coverage ratio ("LCR") stood at 124%. DBK's LCR is above that of many largest European banks (BNP 112%), as well as US banks (Citigroup
121%).

Here is the breakdown:

  • Liquidity reserve: €223 bn, or ~20% of total assets. In total, DBK's liquidity reserve stood at €223 bn, representing ~20% of the banks total net assets (where assets are US GAAP equivalent). The 2Q16 level of liquidity reserve compares to €65 bn in 2007, showing that DBK has grown its liquidity reserve by 3.4x from pre-crisis levels.
  • Cash: €125 bn. The liquidity reserve breaks down between €125 bn of cash and cash equivalents, and €98 bn of securities, available for use at the central banks. As highlighted in Exhibit 2, the € portion of the securities can be used to obtain liquidity of varied duration (between O/N to 4-years) at a cost of 0% (and as low as -40 bp, if lending benchmarks are met).
  • LCR: 124%. DBK's Liquidity Coverage ratio stood at 124%, which is ~1.5x the current regulatory minimum, and a cut above the 2019 fully-loaded requirement of 100%. This compares favorably to, say, Citigroup (121%), BNP (112%). Other US banks (e.g. JPM, BofA) do not disclose their LCR other than to say that they are "compliant", suggesting LCR is at or above 100%.

Where does this liquidity come from? Exhibit 3 above examines DBK's funding composition – this is relevant in the context of media reports highlighting a decline in prime brokerage balances (Bloomberg, September 29). These include:

  • Lowest volatility funding: 57%. Lowest volatility sources of funding - retail deposits, transaction banking balances (corporate and institutional deposits from corporate banking relationships) and equity account for 57% of total funding. Over half of the groups' funding therefore, stems from this source.
  • Low volatility funds: 15%. Debt securities in issue account for 14% of total funding. Together with the previous category, "lowest" and "low" volatility funding accounts for 72% of total funding.
  • Other customers – this includes prime brokerage cash balance – 7%. The total amount of "other customer" funds, which includes: fiduciary, self-funding structures (e.g. X-markets), margin/Prime Brokerage cash balances (shown on a net basis (see DBK 2015 annual report, p178). Importantly, this represents ~7% of total funding, and is 3.1x covered with the liquidity reserve.
  • Other parts of funding – unsecured wholesale, secured funding – account for the residual.

In other words, all else equal, even in a worst case Prime Brokerage situation, one where all €71 billion in "other customer" funds flee, DB should still have about €152 billion of the €223 billion in liquidity reserve as of June 30, once again assuming there have been no other changes. Stated simply, if the hedge fund outflow accelerates and depletes all the liquidity at the Prime Brokerage division, DB would part with about a third (just over  €70 billion) of its €220 billion liquidity reserve.

Some other observations: even if one assumes the full loss of PB balances, DB would still have a Liquidity coverage ratio ("LCR") of 124%.  The LCR is equivalent to HQLA/net stressed outflows over 30 day period. This ratio shows the banks' ability to meet stressed funding conditions over a period of 1 month. For Deutsche bank, the LCR stood at 124% with the ratio composed of:

  1. High Quality Liquid Assets (HQLAs) of €196 bn. These include Level 1 assets (the most liquid securities which include cash and equivalents, bonds issued or guaranteed by a government and certain covered bonds); Level 2A assets, which are subject to a haircut (third country government bonds, bonds issued by public entities, EU covered bonds, non-EU covered bonds, corporate bonds) and Level 2B assets (high quality securitisations, corporate bonds, other high quality covered bonds).
  2. The net stressed outflows: €158 bn as of 2Q16 (YE15 €161 bn). DBK's net stressed outflows amounted to €161 bn at year-end 2015, and include an assumption of loss of prime brokerage deposits. As per Commission Delegated Regulation (EU) 2015/61 "Deposits arising out of a correspondent banking relationship or from the provision of prime brokerage services shall not be treated as an operational deposit and shall receive a 100 % outflow rate."
  3. The minimum level is 100% (effective 2018) and is phased in gradually from 2015; the 2016 requirement is 70%.

Of course, the "stressed outflow over a 30 day period" is an assumption, one which can accelerate rapidly, especially if the stock price of DB continues to fall crushing what is any bank's most critical asset: counterparty confidence, either from retail investors or institutional peers.

Still, what the above calculations reveals is that the Bloomberg report suggest that while substantial, the Prime Brokerage outflow would not be, on its own, deadly.  But therein lies the rub: since any bank's collapse is a procyclical event in which liquidity flees in all directions, with a speed that is usually inversely proportional to the stock price, the lower the price of DB goes (and the higher its CDS), the more dire its liquidity situation.

However, as noted above, the biggest threat to DB is not so much its hedge fund client base, whose damage potential is limited, but the depositor base. Again: while Lehman failed, it did so as a result of its corporate counterparties suffocating the bank by rapidly pulling out their liquidity lines. Lehman, however, was lucky in that it didn't have retail depositors: it death would have likely come far faster as the capital panic was not limited to institutions but also included a retail depositor bank run.

This is where Deutsche Bank is very different from Lehman, and far riskier, because if the institutional panic spreads to the depositor base, which as the table below shows amounts to some €566 billion in total, and €307 billion in retail deposits...

 

... then all bets are off.

Which is why it is so critical for Angela Merkel to halt the plunging stock price, an indicator DB's retail clients, simplistically (and not erroneously) now equate with the bank's viability, and the lower the price drops, the faster they will pull their deposits, the quicker DB's liquidity hits zero, the faster the self-fulfilling prophecy of Deutsche Bank's death is confirmed.

Which ultimately means that DB really has four options: raise capital (sell equity, convert CoCos, which may results in an even bigger drop in the stock price due to dilution or concerns the liquidity raise may not be sufficient), approach the ECB for a liquidity bridge (this may also backfire as counterparties scramble to flee a central bank-backstopped institution), appeal for a state bailout (Merkel has so far said "Nein") or implement a bail-in, eliminating billions in unsecured claims (and deposits) and leading to a full-blown systemic bank run as depositors everywhere rush to withdraw their savings, leading to a collapse of the fractional reserve banking mode (in which there is only 10 cents in physical deliverable cash for every dollar in depositor claims). 

Which of the four choices Deutsche Bank will pick should become clear in the coming days. Until it does, it will keep the market on edge and quite volatile, because as Jeff Gundlach explained today, a "do nothing" scenario is no longer an option for CEO John Cryan as the market will keep pushing the price of DB lower until it either fails, or is bailed out.

The Run Begins: Deutsche Bank Hedge Fund Clients Withdraw Excess Cash

Posted: 29 Sep 2016 07:50 PM PDT

Deutsche Bank concerns just went to '11' as Bloomberg reports a number of funds that clear derivatives trades with Deutsche Bank AG have withdrawn some excess cash and positions held at the lender, a sign of counterparties' mounting concerns about doing business with Europe's largest investment bank.

While the vast majority of Deutsche Bank's more than 200 derivatives-clearing clients have made no changes, some funds that use the bank's prime brokerage service have moved part of their listed derivatives holdings to other firms this week, according to an internal bank document seen by Bloomberg News.

Millennium Partners, Capula Investment Management and Rokos Capital Management are among about 10 hedge funds that have cut their exposure, said a person familiar with the situation who declined to be identified talking about confidential client matters.

 

The hedge funds use Deutsche Bank to clear their listed derivatives transactions because they are not members of clearinghouses. Millennium, Capula and Rokos declined to comment when contacted by phone or e-mail.

Which explains why short-dated CDS is soaring.

 

 

 

"Our trading clients are amongst the world's most sophisticated investors," Michael Golden, a spokesman for Deutsche Bank, said in an e-mailed statement.

 

"We are confident that the vast majority of them have a full understanding of our stable financial position, the current macroeconomic environment, the litigation process in the U.S. and the progress we are making with our strategy."

Clients review their exposure to counterparties to avoid situations like the 2008 collapse of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. and MF Global's 2011 bankruptcy when hedge funds had billions of dollars of assets frozen until the resolution of lengthy legal proceedings.

As expected, Deutsche Bank stock in NY is sliding.

 

If the most sophisticated professionals in the world are withdrawing cash, why are German depositors leaving their life savings at risk... ahead of a long weekend in Germany (Monday is a bank holiday).

*  *  *

And for those believing that there is no contagion and this is all ring-fenced...

 

And US banks are sliding...

 

As a reminder, if the liquidity run forces DB to start unwinding or being forced to novate derivatives, it could get ugly.

 

Those who have cash parked at Deutsche Bank, and at last check there was about €566 billion, they may want to consider moving it for the time being to a safer bank.

 

* * *

Earlier this morning, we reported that Europe is experiencing a sudden and acute dollar shortage, which we attributed to Deutsche Bank. It now appears this was accurate. Since Deutsche's recent highs, the short-end of the EUR-USD basis swap curve has collapsed:

Simplifying - this chart measures the degree of USD shortage
(willingness to spend money just to get USD now) across time - the lower
the level, the more desperate for USDs.

And no, it's not a quarter-end issue:

 

Still not sure... Then explain why European banks just increased
their demand for USDs from The ECB's 7-day lending facility by over
2000%...

As @Landonthomasjr notes, since 2009: DB shareholders put up 13.5 billion euros in equity. DB has paid 19.3 billion euro in bonuses. Perhaps they should have saved some of that cash eh?

Simply put - trust in the European Banking system is faltering, counterparty risk hedging is accelerating:

 And liquidity concerns are exploding, ahead of Germany's bank holiday on Monday.

Pizzaflation and the US Dollar collapse

Posted: 29 Sep 2016 07:48 PM PDT

Sometimes the best economic analysis comes anecdotally.  Why not explain the most important economic issue of our day with America's favorite food: PIZZA.  As we explain in our book Splitting Pennies - Understanding Forex, the real reason of inflation is because of monetary policy, not supply and demand.

In case you didn't know, facts about Pizza

Pizza is actually America's favorite food.  The Atlantic covered a DOA report that showed the cheesy stats:

Like football, pop music, and democracy itself, pizza follows in the long American tradition of things that began overseas before the United States imported, violently altered, and eventually defined the institution. Although the first pizza shops didn't open in the U.S. until the early 20th century, hundreds of years after the original Neapolitan pies, we now spend $37 billion a year on pizza, accounting for a third of the global market. The obsession deepens. On any given day, about 13 percent of Americans eat pizza, according to a new report from the Department of Agriculture. One in six guys between the ages of two and 39 ate it for breakfast, lunch, or dinner today. In part due to this obsession, per capita consumption of cheese is up 41 percent since 1995. Drawn from the report, here are seven facts about Americans and pizza, presented free of moralizing comments about whether or not it is healthy or sensible for the American diet to consist so overwhelming of bread adorned with tomato-cheesey gloop.

Pizza, is actually an AMERICAN food, brought to America by the Italians.  Pizza was invented in Italy, but in Italy, Pizza is completely different, and not very popular.  In fact, Pizza is most popular in America.  It's more American than Apple Pie.  Check it out:

In 1905, a slice of pizza cost five cents. During the Depression, when families did not have much money, pizza became popular with everyone in the United States. Families were eating different types of pizza on the east and west coasts. A thick-crust pizza was called double-crust pizza or west coast pizza. When they had a large exhibit about pizza at the Texas State Fair, more people inquired about this food than any other.The first recipe for pizza appeared in a fundraising cookbook published in Boston in 1936. The recipe, for Neapolitan pizza, was made by hand. Dough had to be hand-stretched by pizzaiolos and housewives until it was half an inch thick. The pizza had cheese, tomatoes, grated parmesan cheese, and olive oil. Surprisingly, the dough was not made by hand, but cooks were told to buy it at a good Italian bake shop.However, pizza was mostly limited to Italian immigrant communities until after World War II, when American soldiers returning from Italy still wanted their pies. Popularity spread, and various American styles developed. Pizzeria Uno is credited with the invention of the Chicago deep dish pizza in 1943. This is known as tomato pie and was baked in rectangular pans in bakeries. Its crust was extra thick and it had seasoned tomato puree and was dusted with Romano cheese before it went into the oven. Some eventually had meat and thick cheese, and it was so thick, it often had to be eaten with a knife and fork.

The American Dollar is collapsing

From five cents a slice to $20 a Pizza.  What happened?  During this time, the US Dollar went down by more than 95%.  Let's take a look at one of America's favorite Pizzas, Numero Uno Pizza.  For those of you who have not had the pleasure to live in the greater Los Angeles area, where Numero Uno has had 95% name recognition, Numero Uno Pizza is a household name.  Interestingly, Numero Uno was founded in Los Angeles right around the time Nixon created Forex; 1970.  We've obtained an old Numero Uno menu (we think though, it's from the 80s) that shows prices from that time:

Wow!  .85 House Wine, less than $5 for a Carafe!  

Now take a look at prices we've lifted from current NU store sites, such as Numero Uno Palmdale:

The most popular NU pizza is the S5 "Slaughterhouse 5" which currently stands at $16.95.  We confirmed with the manager of Palmdale location that indeed; prices are due for a rate hike in January.

From $10.85 to $16.95 isn't too bad, Pizzaflation is not nearly as bad as inflation in other markets, most notably, real estate, groceries, coffee, and other items.  Using an inflation calculator, $1 in 1970 is about $6.21 today.  If the menu is from 1985, the S5 should be $24.29.  Other NU stores have it priced at $19.99.  In any case, for older folk, $20 is a lot to pay for a Pizza, in their mind.  But that's only because of memory, of times past.  Inflation is a slow subtle tax.  From a 'real dollar' perspective, Numero Uno Pizza is cheap.

Let's understand the second component of inflation that's less obvious - the deterioration of QUALITY.  You can get a Pizza today for $5 - but it's a bunch of crap.  Like any product, you get what you pay for.  This part of inflation, the decline in quality, is less obvious but more damaging.  Every year, products get a little worse and worse.

The real cause of Pizzaflation

Real analysts must always seek the CAUSALITY  

Inflation happens only for one reason:  Central Bank prints more currency.  More currency, chasing the same or fewer goods and assets, makes the price go up.  It's really simple!  QE (Quantitative Easing) has been rampant in recent years.  Fortunately for consumers, most inflation has happened in financial markets, real estate, and other markets.

This phenomenon has been covered well in "The Burrito Index:"

In our household, we measure inflation with the "Burrito Index": How much has the cost of a regular burrito at our favorite taco truck gone up?

Since we keep detailed records of expenses (a necessity if you're a self-employed free-lance writer), I can track the real-world inflation of the Burrito Index with great accuracy: the cost of a regular burrito from our local taco truck has gone up from $2.50 in 2001 to $5 in 2010 to $6.50 in 2016.That's a $160% increase since 2001; 15 years in which the official inflation rate reports that what $1 bought in 2001 can supposedly be bought with $1.35 today.

If the Burrito Index had tracked official inflation, the burrito at our truck should cost $3.38—up only 35% from 2001. Compare that to today's actual cost of $6.50—almost double what it "should cost" according to official inflation calculations.

Since 2001, the real-world burrito index is 4.5 times greater than the official rate of inflation—not a trivial difference.

Between 2010 and now, the Burrito Index has logged a 30% increase, more than triple the officially registered 10% drop in purchasing power over the same time.

Those interested can check the official inflation rate (going back to 1913) with the BLS Inflation calculator by clicking here.

My Burrito Index is a rough-and-ready index of real-world inflation. To insure its measure isn't an outlying aberration, we also need to track the real-world costs of big-ticket items such as college tuition and healthcare insurance, as well as local government-provided services. When we do, we observe results of similar magnitude.

The takeaway? Our money is losing its purchasing power much faster than the government would like us to believe.

It's important for consumers to understand, Pizzaflation is not caused by Pizza makers.  Numero Uno actually is doing a great job keeping prices low, because their food cost, rent, and other costs, are all exploding parabolic.

Los Angeles has the highest rent burden in America:

Overall, rents in Los Angeles have doubled since the 1970s:

But of course, that's not counting other various fees, taxes, increased regulatory costs, increased insurances due to higher crime rates, and other factors.  Pizzaflation has hit Los Angeles hard, creating a 'double whammy' for businesses like Numero Uno.  And with LA's median income flat since 1970, it makes one wonder who can afford a $20 Pizza.  But the remaining Numero Uno stores are mostly packed and have great reviews, so it seems that it takes something really Magic to survive the pressure of the Fed.

To learn more about how the Fed decreases the value of the US Dollar via Quantitative Easing, checkout Splitting Pennies - Understanding Forex - your pocket guide to make you a Forex genius!  

The good news, Forex is artificial so you can learn about it online.  It's all digital.  If you want the best Pizza you've ever had in your life - you'll have to drive all the way to Palmdale, California and visit Numero Uno Palmdale.

In New Orleans you can't lose -- unless you miss Friday's room reservation deadline

Posted: 29 Sep 2016 07:42 PM PDT

By Brien Lundin
New Orleans Investment Conference
Thursday, September 29, 2016

You may be missing out on a fortune.

Hundreds of investors are multiplying their money as much as five times within weeks. They're discovering junior gold stocks that quickly turn $10,000 into as much as $300,000, and sometimes much more.

And I'm going to show you a guaranteed ticket to finding the next big winners.

I'm going to show you a secret that changed my life 12 years ago. It involves a handful of powerful factors that rarely come together. But when they do, they spin out fortunes like nothing else.

... Dispatch continues below ...



ADVERTISEMENT

Sandspring Resources Commences 2016 Exploration Campaign

Company Announcement
August 17, 2016

Sandspring Resources Ltd. (TSX VENTURE:SSP, US OTC: SSPXF) is pleased to announce commencement of the 2016 exploration campaign at its Toroparu Gold Project in Guyana, South America.

In 2015 the company completed a 3,700-meter diamond drilling program on the promising Sona Hill Prospect, located 5 kilometers southeast of the main Toroparu deposit. Sona Hill is the easternmost gold anomaly in a cluster of 10 gold features located within a 20-by-7-kilometer hydrothermal alteration halo around Toroparu. Drilling at Sona Hill in 2012 and in 2015 intercepted high-grade mineralization in both saprolite and bedrock, and confirmed the continuity and grade potential of the Sona Hill mineralization.

For the remainder of the announcement and highlights of the 2015 drill program:

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/sandspring-resources-commences-2016-explo...



Consider this: The last time these critical events converged, my average closed stock position multiplied 5.5 times in value.

I'm not talking about paper profits. That's the real-world, cash-in-hand profits that I reported to the IRS on my tax return.

Needless to say, this was a life-changing event. Although it happened a dozen years ago, it seems like yesterday.

The good news: It's happening again -- right now.

But this time it's primed to hand us even bigger profits than before. (So big that I can guarantee that you'll quadruple your investment.)

By this time you've guessed that I'm talking about the huge profits generated by junior mining stocks.

Gold is hot. But junior gold stocks are absolutely on fire.

No doubt you've been swamped with supposed experts trying to sell their newsletters with claims that these juniors can make you a fortune if only you follow their high-priced advice.

They tout huge junior mining stock winners like:

Silver Standard, up 3,753 percent.

Asanko Gold, up 1,182 percent.

Kaminak Gold, up 3,033 percent.

First Majestic, up 3,511 percent.

Rare Element Resources, up 6,416 percent.

Great Panther Silver, up 2,947 percent.

Well, I'm here to tell you that every word they're saying is absolutely true. It's a fact: These junior mining stocks are like skyrockets. When their fuses are lit -- as they are right now -- they quickly hand over life-changing gains.

But here's what these supposed gurus aren't telling you: They never recommended any of these big winners.

Which brings me to my big secret.

A small fraternity of very well-placed experts did recommend every one of these enormously profitable junior miners.

Moreover, this exclusive group meets every year, at the same time and place, to hand out their hottest stock picks to a few lucky investors. And you can be there this time to pick up the next skyrocketing junior gold stocks before they take off.

I'm the producer of the legendary New Orleans Investment Conference.

The conference was begun by my late friend, mentor and business partner, Jim Blanchard, in 1974. I started working for Jim in 1985 and I've been running the event for the past 17 years since his passing.

Although we cover all the markets like a blanket, including geopolitics and the economy, the New Orleans Conference is renowned as the original "gold conference."

Not only were we there when gold ownership was legalized, we were instrumental in getting it legalized for American investors.

This event is so prestigious that the giants of modern history have graced its stage.

I'm talking about Lady Margaret Thatcher, novelist Ayn Rand, Nobel laureates Milton Friedman and F.A. Hayek, Alan Greenspan, Barry Goldwater, Ron Paul, and dozens upon dozens more.

But more importantly to you right now, the world's top experts in gold, silver, and mining stocks come to our event every year to deliver their top picks.

How profitable is this information?

Consider those huge winners I just mentioned. You know, the fortune makers that some people are using to sell subscriptions, but that they never personally recommended.

Every one of those high-flyers was introduced
at the New Orleans Investment Conference.

I'm not talking about hypothetical gains. This is where you find real-world, cash-in-the-bank winners:

-- Silver Standard? Yes, it multiplied as much as 38 times in price, but few investors ever had the chance to enjoy gains like that, unless they attended the New Orleans conference, where this company was literally born. (I know, because our group helped create the company and gave conference attendees first crack at the stock when it was trading for just pennies.

-- Asanko Gold? A big gold producer today, it was introduced at the New Orleans conference when it was still a penny stock called Keegan Resources.

(Get this: The management team behind this company introduced another big winner, Cayden Resources, that multiplied in price for conference attendees. What's their next jackpot? You'll find it in Booth 107 at this year's conference!)

-- Kaminak Gold? We liked this company so much at the New Orleans conference that we gave it a special workshop to introduce its big gold discovery. Another incredible money-maker served to our attendees on a silver platter.

-- First Majestic? New Orleans Conference attendees got the first chance to get onboard this 35-for-1 silver bonanza through a predecessor company called First Silver Reserve. You couldn't have gotten on the train any earlier than that.

-- Rare Element Resources? Up 6,416 percent? Sure, but how many investors actually realized that gain? Rare Element was just another penny stock that few had ever heard of until it was introduced at the New Orleans conference.

-- Great Panther Silver? Yet another high-flyer that was introduced at the New Orleans conference. If anyone had the chance to enjoy those 30-for-1 profits, it was our attendees.

And that's just the beginning.

Don't think for a second that these were the only jackpots that the New Orleans conference has delivered.

I've barely scratched the surface. Consider these:

-- Millrock Resources multiplied 16 times over in price within months of being recommended from our podium.

-- Paladin Energy rocketed from 10 cents a share to as high as $10.44 in the uranium boom that our attendees got in on from the very beginning. That's right, a 100-for-1 blockbuster. Just $10,000 turned into a cool million.

-- Tasman Metals. Recommended at just 21 cents at the New Orleans conference, it quickly soared more than 25 times in price.

-- Bankers Petroleum soared 1,638 percent, a 17-for-1 winner that turned every $10,000 into as much as $170,000 after being tipped at our event.

-- East Africa Metals soared more than seven times over in price in less than a year after being recommended.

-- Gold Standard Ventures was yet another 7-for-1 winner over just a few months.

-- Inter-Citic Minerals. This tiny exploration company catapulted nearly nine times over in price after being recommended in New Orleans.

I could go on and on listing the stock tips that have yielded fortunes for those lucky few who have attended our event.

The fact is the New Orleans Conference turns out winners like this each and every year.

But every now and then when some special factors align things really get exciting.

And that's happening right now.

The gold price peaked in the summer of 2011 at $1,920 an ounce. It was the cap of an amazing, 10-year run that saw the price of the yellow metal 7 1/2 times in price.

You would have done great if you would have simply bought gold and held it.

But you would've done better -- much better -- by buying carefully selected junior mining stocks.

As you can see from the list above, it wasn't uncommon to see these companies soar more than 10 times in price in short order. Then, if you rolled over some of those gains into the next hot prospect that then multiplied five or more times ... and rolled those gains into another big 10-bagger. ...

Well, pretty soon you're talking about millions of dollars in profits.

It was an incredible time. Fortunes were made. But then it all ended when gold peaked in 2011.

Then began a deep, nearly five-year-long bear market as the Fed began tapering off its quantitative easing program. And then the inevitable, ever-turning cycle turned once again at the beginning of this year. Why?

Forget North Korea. Ignore the Middle East. Don't worry about Russia, Crimea, China, the European Union, or any of the rest.

While geopolitical crises may spark gold for a few days, the only thing that really moves gold over the long-term is debasement of "paper" currencies.

And that's precisely what's happening now. After all the world's central banks have tried all the quantitative easing they could -- with no effect on their struggling economies -- they started driving interest rates down like a stake in the ground.

Hitting the supposed wall at zero, they went even further into the unprecedented realm of negative interest rates. And still further and further, until now about half of all sovereign debt has a negative yield, corporations are issuing bonds with the promise to pay back less than they borrow, and even Federal Reserve officials have floated the possibility of negative rates in the United States.

Of course, experienced investors know that gold flourishes when interest rates are low. But when interest rates are negative, when banks are charging you rent for your money, they're essentially paying you, me, and billions of people around the world to put our money in gold.

We are truly in uncharted territory. Interest rates today are the lowest in 5,000 years, the lowest in history. And the environment for gold has never been better.

That's why gold has been rising this year. And because central banks are wedded to their policies of currency debasement, gold will continue to soar.

But there's a wild card. If and when the U.S. economy takes its inevitable downturn, the Fed will be forced to return to quantitative easing and gold will leap hundreds of dollars higher in a flash.

The profits in junior gold and silver shares will be like those we saw a dozen years ago, when Alan Greenspan started the money-printing cycle -- and probably much, much better.

So how will you find the stocks that are poised to deliver these life-changing profits?

Easy. Hot picks. Powerful strategies. Deadly accurate forecasts. All handed to you by today's most successful experts.

At the New Orleans conference you get to learn from and mingle with many of the smartest and most successful people in investments and economics. But this year, with the metals and mining stocks on fire and historic profits to be had, we've pulled out all the stops

James Grant is perhaps the most respected analyst on Wall Street. He's going to show you precisely why the Fed's policies will end in tears for most but huge profits for gold investors.

A few famous investors made, literally, billions from the 2008 crisis that Peter Schiff predicted. Now Peter has an even more shocking prediction -- involving the dollar -- that he's going to share in New Orleans.

Pulitzer Prize-winning columnist Dr. Charles Krauthammer has peeled away the layers of this election like an onion. And at our conference, just days before the polls open, he'll reveal an insight that could save you a fortune.

"Pretend everyone is going to die tomorrow," says famed hedge fund manager, entrepreneur, and best-selling author James Altucher. How will this help you make a fortune? It's surprisingly simple, as he'll reveal in New Orleans.

You've seen legendary trader Dennis Gartman on CNBC. But you've never seen him reveal his top two investment ideas for today's volatile markets. Discover what he can't say on TV.

Legendary free-market economist Stephen Moore is Donald Trump's top economic adviser. In our intimate setting he'll reveal the inside scoop on what a Trump presidency will mean for you.

Doug Casey is the undisputed king of controversy and contrarianism. He's also one of the world's most successful speculators in mining stocks. And he has a little-known pick to tell you about in New Orleans.

Literally hundreds of thousands of investors seek out Mike Larson's market analyses every week. But in New Orleans he's going to reveal specific picks for the popping of an "Everything Bubble" that's like nothing we've ever seen before.

Rick Rule is known as perhaps the best resource stock speculator ever. He saves his top picks for New Orleans -- and this year he's going to reveal a powerful, seemingly infallible way you can make a fortune from the collapse of the oil market.

Who;s the most influential economist in the world today? Many will say its Peter Boockvar -- and he's going to reveal why the Fed is trapped, what they'll try to do next, and how you must prepare.

We have fun in New Orleans too, and celebrated satirist and libertarian P.J. O'Rourke will explain in his hilarious fashion how we got here in this crazy election season.

Brent Cook is an acclaimed geologist who is known for putting the "thumbs down" on mining projects. But when he gives his "thumbs up" -- as he will with these three little-known exploration companies -- we almost always hit the jackpot.

Eric Coffin could be the most connected insider in the mining exploration capital of Vancouver. He has not one, not two, but five hot picks that seem destined to multiply within weeks.

I don't know how many boots Louis James goes through in a year, but no one visits more mining and exploration projects. Louis says his travels have uncovered a handful of hidden gems that he's going to unveil for you in New Orleans.

Former CIA economist and legendary newsletter editor Mark Skousen has found four rock-solid investments that offer safe paths to profits -- including two diversified stocks with over 6.5-percent yields.

Adrian Day was investing around the world decades before it became cool. Now he's found a few high-yielding stocks that are also poised to beat Wall Street's highest flyers.

Nick Hodge may have the hottest hand in the world today -- from mining to technology to alternative energy, all he does is turn out picks that quickly leap higher. His secretive "Top Ten" list will be unveiled in New Orleans.

Robert Prechter didn't invent cycles analysis but no one's ever done it better. His shocking predictions have an uncomfortable way of coming true -- and you won't believe the latest forecast he'll give us.

Mary Anne and Pamela Aden have used their technical analysis skills to post one of the best track records in history. What's next? They know, and they'll tell you in New Orleans.

Who has beaten the S&P 500 by 6 1/2 times since 2001? None other than Jeff Hirsch, editor of The Stock Trader's Almanac, a Wall Street institution for decades. Nobody plays the historic patterns better, including the election trend that will kick in this November.

Gwen Preston has built a reputation from digging deep into mining and exploration projects to find red-hot speculations that pay off in a big way. She found most of this year's biggest winners -- and wait until you see her list of next year's top picks.

Nick Giambruno is an expert in economics, offshore banking, second passports, geopolitics, and value investing. More important, he has one of the hottest hands around, and a very specific picks to profit from either a Clinton or Trump presidency.

Plus many more of the leading authorities on gold, silver, mining stocks, real estate, and every investment sector. It's all happening at this year's New Orleans Investment Conference.

And now not only are you invited to this exclusive event, but you simply can't lose by attending.

This conference will make you four times richer or it's free.

This opportunity is so important, and we're so confident that the New Orleans conference will pay for itself many times over, that I'll offer you this ironclad guarantee:

If you attend this year's New Orleans conference and don't make back at least four times the money you paid to attend -- in six months or less -- just let me know. I'll happily give you a prompt, hassle-free refund on your entire registration fee -- every penny.

You can't lose!

Well, you can lose if you don't act immediately to secure your place at New Orleans 2016.

Consider this: I've offered this quadruple-your-money guarantee for the past five years. And I've never had a single attendee ask for his money back.

That's how big and consistent the profits have been for our attendees.

But there's one problem you need to know about: The doors are closing -- literally.

This year's New Orleans Conference is being held from October 26-29 at the luxurious New Orleans Hilton Riverside. It's a beautiful hotel, nestled alongside the Mississippi River within easy walking distance of the historic French Quarter, Harrah's Casino, riverside parks, and all the food, music, and ambiance that make the Crescent City such a special destination.

Unfortunately, we have only a limited block of rooms reserved at the Hilton for our event, and that block reservation is about to expire in a few days.

Worse yet, we're getting reports that every other hotel in the city is sold out due to Halloween celebrations and a number of food and music festivals.

That means you'll be completely locked out of this opportunity if you don't act immediately.

Here's the bottom line: You must register for New Orleans 2016 by Friday, September 30, or the lodging situation will be completely out of our control.

Our room block at the Hilton will be closing, and there will likely be no rooms to be had outside our hotel.

Then you will be locked out of an event that could make you a fortune in the weeks ahead.

It's so important that you act immediately to secure this opportunity that I'm going give you two big bonuses if you reserve your spot by September 30:

1) I'll give you a big discount from our on-site registration fee -- a full $400 back in your pocket.

2) I'll also give you a free upgrade to Gold Club status for you and your guests.

Your Gold Club status will entitle you to a special private viewing room with day-long coffee service, exclusive Q&A sessions with selected speakers following their presentations, special reports and investment information exclusively for you, and deep discounts on conference audio and video recordings and other valuable investment products.

Others are paying $189 for this exclusive package of benefits but you'll get it all free if you register by our cutoff date.

To claim your Gold Club status, be sure to act immediately and enter the promotional code FREEGOLDCLUB when you register.

Let's recap...

The cycle has turned for gold and mining stocks. People are watching their investments multiply in a matter of weeks.

The best event to show you tomorrow's big winners -- from the world's most experienced and successful experts in the sector -- is coming up next month.
You've just been invited to this exclusive event -- and offered $589 in bottom-line value if you can register before the room-block cutoff.

This opportunity offers such huge profit potential and is so certain that if you don't make back four times your cost to attend in six months or less, I'll refund your entire registration fee.

You can't lose. And you stand to gain a fortune in this next bull run in gold and mining stocks.

But it all hinges on whether you can act now, before our cut-off date.

Given the raging precious metals bull market alongside the faltering U.S. and global economies, New Orleans 2016 could turn out to be the most profitable investment event in decades -- perhaps in the entire 42-year history of the conference.

The strategies and picks our celebrated speakers deliver could yield a fortune for you.

Or nothing if you don't attend.

All you have to do is register now -- by September 30 -- while space is still available. And doing so couldn't be easier. Just click her

Owning Physical Gold Will Protect Your Wealth Against Disingenuous Acts Of Central Banks

Posted: 29 Sep 2016 07:00 PM PDT

by David Levenstein, Mountain Vision:

The insane obsession about a potential interest rate hike continues as all eyes remain focused on the September 21 meeting. Recently, most people seemed to feel a September rate hike was unlikely, but now over the course of a week and a bit of hawkish Fed-talk, many now seem to believe September rate hike may actually be in the cards. I am of the opinion that the Fed will not increase rates at this meeting. The September FOMC that takes on September 20-21, 2016 will show what the Fed has decided regarding interest rate when their decision comes out around 2 p.m. on September 21.

Financial markets across the world have been taking their cues from central banks for years and we know the Federal Reserve wants to at some point begin raising rates. However, the timing of this continues to be uncertain. Even if they decide to increase the Federal Funds Rate, by 25bps or even 50bps over the next six months or so in an attempt to avoid any over reaction in bond markets, such a small increase is unlikely to have a much of an impact on gold prices over the long-term. As I have already pointed out countless times, this is not the only event to influence gold prices.

While the Fed is expected to increase rates at some time in the future, other major central banks are keeping rates low. On Thursday, the Bank of England (BoE) voted unanimously to keep the Bank rate at 0.25% and the asset purchase program at 435 billion pounds.

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) left its monetary policy unchanged in September, keeping the sight deposit rate unchanged at -0.75% and the target for the three-month Libor at between -1.25% and -0.25%. The bank reaffirmed its pledge to 'remain active in the foreign exchange market, as necessary'.

The European Central Bank (ECB) held the size of the monthly asset purchase at EUR 80 billion and stated that it would continue till the end of March 2017. The main refinancing rate was held at 0.00% and deposit rate at -0.40%.

Overall, the European economy remains so weak that projections suggest that even with massive amounts of monetary stimulus, price inflation will not reach the ECB's targeted 2 percent any time soon. With its credibility on the line, however, the ECB appears reluctant to cut its deposit rate even further below negative 0.4 percent, or its' Main Refinancing Operations, (MRO) rate below zero, where it already sits.

The central bank lowered GDP forecast for 2017 to 1.6%, slightly down from 1.7%. Inflation forecast for 2016 was also lowered slightly to 1.2%, from 1.3%.

Also, last week the Royal Bank of Australia (RBA) left the cash rate unchanged at 1.50% as widely expected.

It is clear that our financial and monetary system supported and propped up by unprecedented money-printing and governmental promises, is beginning to crack at its foundations and the central banks are losing control.

The world's leading experiment in monetary easing is floundering, and its engineers have no idea of what to do try next.

The Bank of Japan (BoJ) has tried radical measures for 3½ years to reflate the country's sagging economy, resorting this year to negative interest rates. However, growth and inflation still remain elusive.

The BoJ shocked markets in January by cutting rates below zero for the first time in an attempt to weaken the yen, but the yen reaction was only temporary, and it has since gained more than 15 percent against the dollar.

Read More @ Mountainvision.com

Trump Supporters Violently Assaulted

Posted: 29 Sep 2016 04:37 PM PDT

 Trump Supporters are being violently attacked across the US by the so called "tolerant" left. The Financial Armageddon Economic Collapse Blog tracks trends and forecasts , futurists , visionaries , free investigative journalists , researchers , Whistelblowers , truthers and many more

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7 Things You Need to Know: “New World Money” Goes Live Tomorrow

Posted: 29 Sep 2016 02:14 PM PDT

This post 7 Things You Need to Know: “New World Money” Goes Live Tomorrow appeared first on Daily Reckoning.

1) Is tomorrow THE day that the dollar "dies" and is replaced?

Tomorrow, Sept. 30, is when the International Monetary Fund (IMF) officially adds the Chinese yuan to its basket of currencies comprising its special drawing right (SDR). It has enormous long-term implications for the dollar.

Does that mean the dollar becomes worthless overnight? Of course not. Tomorrow's event may not even make major headlines. You won't hear about it in the news. And it won't cause the dollar to crash immediately. This is a development with long-term implications, but in itself, it will not make waves. But that's the point — the dollar will die — but with a whimper, not a bang.

The dollar replaced the British pound sterling as the world's dominant currency last century. But it was a gradual process that took place between 1914 and 1944. It didn't happen overnight, nor will SDRs replace the dollar overnight.

When you wake up October 1st, you won't find anything noticeably different. You'll still have dollars in your pocket, you'll still get paid in dollars, those will be worth something.

But tomorrow will nonetheless be a very significant turning point. Membership in the exclusive SDR currency club has changed only once in the past 30 years. The SDR has been dominated by the "Big Four" (U.S., U.K., Japan and Europe) since the IMF abandoned the gold SDR in 1973. This is why inclusion of the Chinese yuan is so momentous.

2) Do I need to dump all of my dollars, stocks and other investments and get into gold?

No. I do believe you should own gold, and I believe it's ultimately heading to $10,000 an ounce. But I don't recommend you put any more than 10% of your investable money into gold, or any other asset for that matter. Some people say, "Jim Rickards recommends selling everything and going all into gold." I don't say that and I never have. You never want to put all your eggs in one basket.

I recommend a diversified portfolio that includes gold, fine art, raw land, cash, bonds, select stocks and some alternatives in strategies like global macro hedge funds and venture capital. You need to be nimble in today's unpredictable macroeconomic environment. We provide guidance on these in my newsletter, Jim Rickards' Strategic Intelligence.

3) What do you mean when you say the "New World Money" goes live tomorrow? The SDR has been around since 1969…

It's true, the SDR was invented in 1969. And there were a number of issues of SDRs in the 1970s. Indeed, the IMF has issued SDRs three times since their creation more than 40 years ago. Each time was linked to a crisis of confidence in the U.S. dollar…

In 1969, the French and others recognized the United States was printing too many dollars. At the time, foreigners could still exchange dollars for gold, and there was a run on Fort Knox. The IMF created the SDR to smooth the rough monetary seas, issuing 9.3 billion SDRs through 1972.

In 1979, U.S. inflation soared out of control, past 14%. Oil-producing countries fretted the value of their dollar reserves was plunging. The IMF issued 12.1 billion SDRs through 1981.

In 2009, in response to the Panic of 2008, the IMF issued 182.7 billion SDRs during August and September. That was the first time the IMF issued SDRs in almost 30 years. That was in response to the global liquidity crisis when it looked like the world's central banks couldn't act fast enough. So the IMF issued over $100 billion of SDRs.

But the Panic of 2008 changed everything. Central banks around the world expanded their balance sheets enormously to combat the crisis. The Fed's balance sheet exploded from $800 pre-crisis to about $4 trillion today, for example. They won't be able to respond the same way when the next crisis strikes, which I expect sooner rather than later. They're out of powder.

The only financial institution with a balance sheet clean enough to respond to the crisis will be the IMF. The IMF acts like the "central bank of the world." It will have to issue massive amounts of SDRs to hold the international monetary system together. The result will be the end of the dollar as the leading global reserve currency. That's why today's developments represents such a dramatic change from the past.

4) Do you expect a major market move when Chinese yuan is finally added to the SDR tomorrow?

I'm not forecasting that… but it wouldn't surprise me if it happened. The economy is on the brink of recession. We've had a full year, 4 consecutive quarters, with average growth of about 1.2%  and with some revisions that may even go lower. This is not just weak growth, it's extraordinary weak, and dangerously close to recession.

Global trade has fallen dramatically. Stocks are in bubble territory and volatility is returning. You never know what event will cause a crash, but it could literally come at any time.

The point is, it could be tomorrow… it could be six months from now. The real question is: What are you waiting for? No one can time these things… and when the trigger happens it'll be too late. How many warnings do you need?

5) Will tomorrow's SDRs have a positive impact on the price of gold?

SDRs are inflationary. If you flood the market in dollars of SDRs, gold will spike dramatically, probably taking it to $10,000. Will that happen tomorrow? Again, probably not. But the trend is in place. What are you waiting for? You can expect that the dollar will be devalued by 50–80% in the coming years.

6) "Can I buy SDRs?"

Officially, no, you can't. The IMF is the only institution that can print and distribute world money.  Only its member states that are within its elite "basket" can freely exchange SDR as currency.  Typically, SDR's are used to take loans or make repayments made by the IMF.  They are also used by its members central banks to sell in order to help currency reserves during times of economic crisis.

Now, it is true that a "private sector" version of SDRs will become available, called M-SDRs. The IMF has published a technical paper introducing the concept of a private SDR market. In the IMF's vision, private companies and corporations can issue bonds denominated in SDRs. Who are the logical issuers of the bonds?

Probably multinational or multilateral organizations like the Asian Development Bank and maybe big corporations like IBM and General Electric. Who would buy these SDR-denominated bonds? Mostly sovereign wealth funds. China will be substantial buyers.

But the only main recourse for everyday investors is to own "synthetic" SDRs. I've put together a way to own an "unofficial" stake in SDRs. Not only is this "unofficial" way perfectly legal, it's the only way I know of for any private citizen to get access.

7) What's the next important step in this New World Money Development?

On Oct. 7, the IMF will hold its annual meeting in Washington, D.C., to consider additional steps to expand the role of SDRs and make China an integral part of the new world money order. But there's another looming development that has implications for the adoption of SDRs…

The return of the BRICS.

"BRICS" is an acronym for Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa, which are among the largest emerging-market economies and make up about 22% of global GDP. Five years ago, discussion in international monetary circles was all about the rise of the BRICS. It appeared the BRICS would mount a serious challenge to U.S. dollar hegemony. Then the BRICS story went quiet in 2014–15. It looked like the BRICS story was fading in importance. But now that's changing.

At the G-20 Leaders' Summit in Hangzhou, China earlier this month, BRICS made a very interesting demand. They may be 22% of the global economy, but they only hold 14.89% of the votes at the IMF.

Any individual country or group of countries with 15% has veto power over certain major IMF decisions, including the issuance of SDRs. Only one country has over 15% today, and that's the United States. The BRICS are now demanding that their IMF vote move closer to their share of the world economy and past the 15% threshold.

If that happens, then the IMF will not be able to flood the world with SDRs in a liquidity crisis unless the BRICS agree. No doubt the BRICS will agree, but only if other steps are taken at the same time to destroy the privileged position of the U.S. dollar in global payments and reserves. The BRICS are back in town, and it has implications for the adoption of SDRs… and the dollar.

Regards,

Jim Rickards
for The Daily Reckoning

Ed. Note: Sign up for your FREE subscription to The Daily Reckoning, and you'll receive regular insights for specific profit opportunities. By taking advantage now, you're ensuring that you'll be financially secure for the future. Best to start right away – it's FREE.

The post 7 Things You Need to Know: “New World Money” Goes Live Tomorrow appeared first on Daily Reckoning.

Some Deutsche Bank clients reduce collateral on trades

Posted: 29 Sep 2016 01:26 PM PDT

By William Canny
Bloomberg News
Thursday, September 29, 2016

Amid mounting concern about Deutsche Bank's ability to withstand pending legal penalties, about 10 hedge funds that do business with the German lender have moved to reduce their financial exposure. The shares slumped.

The funds, which use the bank's prime brokerage service, have moved part of their listed derivatives holdings to other firms this week, according to an internal bank document seen by Bloomberg News. Among them are Izzy Englander's $34 billion Millennium Partners, Chris Rokos' $4 billion Rokos Capital Management, and the $14 billion Capula Investment Management, said a person familiar with the situation who declined to be identified talking about confidential client matters.

Deutsche Bank's New York-listed shares fell as much as 9.1 percent today to a record low, and traded 6.8 percent down at $11.46 by 2:45 p.m. ...

... For the remainder of the report:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-09-29/some-deutsche-bank-cli...



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NewCastle Gold's New CEO, Gerald Panneton, Hits the Ground Running

By Tommy Humphreys
CEO.ca
Tuesday, September 6, 2016

Mining entrepreneur Gerald Panneton took a few years off after building one of Canada's largest gold miners, Detour Gold. He raced performance cars in his down time, and conducted due diligence on various mining assets to potentially back.

This summer, the geologist set his sights on NewCastle Gold (TSXV:NCA), owner of a past-producing gold mine in California with similarities to Detour Gold in its early days. ...

... For the remainder of the report:

https://ceo.ca/@tommy/new-newcastle-gold-ceo-gerald-panneton-hits-the-gr...



Join GATA here:

New Orleans Investment Conference
Wednesday-Saturday, October 26-29, 2016
Hilton New Orleans Riverside
New Orleans, Louisiana
http://neworleansconference.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/08/2016_Powell.h...

Help GATA by purchasing DVDs of GATA's London conference in August 2011 or GATA's Dawson City conference in August 2006:

http://www.goldrush21.com/order.html

Or by purchasing a colorful poster of GATA's full-page ad in The Wall Street Journal on January 31, 2009:

http://tinyurl.com/zr4tjuc

Help keep GATA going

GATA is a civil rights and educational organization based in the United States and tax-exempt under the U.S. Internal Revenue Code. Its e-mail dispatches are free, and you can subscribe at:

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Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts - Shocking, Positively Shocking

Posted: 29 Sep 2016 01:20 PM PDT

How Donald Trump Won the Election | Scott Adams and Stefan Molyneux

Posted: 29 Sep 2016 01:13 PM PDT

 On August 5th, 2015, Scott Adams predicted Donald Trump would become the next President of the United States. Scott Adams joins Stefan Molyneux to discuss the objectives of Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton going into the first presidential debate, the optics of Clinton's collapse on 9/11, why...

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Alasdair Macleod: America is on a slippery slope

Posted: 29 Sep 2016 01:04 PM PDT

4:05p ET Thursday, September 29, 2016

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

The decline of the American empire, GoldMoney research director Alasdair Macleod writes today, will increase the strategic necessity of gold and the risk of war. Macleod's commentary is headlined "America is on a Slippery Slope" and it's posted at GoldMoney here:

https://wealth.goldmoney.com/research/goldmoney-insights/america-is-on-a...

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org



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Gold Standard Continues to Expand North Dark Star High-Grade Deposit

Company Announcement
Wednesday, September 14, 2016

VANCOUVER, British Columbia, Canada -- Gold Standard Ventures Corp. (TSXV: GSV; NYSE MKT:GSV) today announced assay results from two holes, DS16-21 and DS16-04, at the recently discovered North Dark Star oxide gold deposit on its fully-owned and controlled Railroad-Pinion Project in Nevada's Carlin Trend. Results from DS16-21 have increased the width of the deposit and, more importantly, have confirmed that higher-grade oxide mineralization projects up-dip to more shallow depths to the east of DS16-08.

The primary objective of this year's drill program at North Dark Star was to expand the high-grade zone discovered in core hole DS15-13 (15.4 meters of 1.85 gold grams per tonne and 97 meters of 1.61 gold grams per tonne) at the end of last year's drill program. ...

...For the remainder of the announcement:

https://goldstandardv.com/news/2016/expansion-gold-standards-north-dark-...



Join GATA here:

New Orleans Investment Conference
Wednesday-Saturday, October 26-29, 2016
Hilton New Orleans Riverside
New Orleans, Louisiana
http://neworleansconference.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/08/2016_Powell.h...

Help GATA by purchasing DVDs of GATA's London conference in August 2011 or GATA's Dawson City conference in August 2006:

http://www.goldrush21.com/order.html

Or by purchasing a colorful poster of GATA's full-page ad in The Wall Street Journal on January 31, 2009:

http://tinyurl.com/zr4tjuc

Help keep GATA going

GATA is a civil rights and educational organization based in the United States and tax-exempt under the U.S. Internal Revenue Code. Its e-mail dispatches are free, and you can subscribe at:

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To contribute to GATA, please visit:

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GOLD MARKET FLASH NOTE: Ending With a Bang, Not a Whimper

Posted: 29 Sep 2016 12:43 PM PDT

Rudi Fronk and Jim Anthony, co-founders of Seabridge Gold, discuss how extreme monetary policy does not stimulate growth. As we have predicted for some time, central bankers are doubling down on the madness that has failed to achieve economic lift-off. It is no surprise to us that easy money has not stimulated growth. There was never any reason why it should. It reminds us of trying to force hay into the wrong end of an elephant.

Gold vs. Paper: The Only Debate That Matters

Posted: 29 Sep 2016 12:38 PM PDT

While a record audience watched the first presidential debate between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump, the sad truth is that the candidates differ very little on the issues that matter most. As president, both Clinton and Trump are likely to drive the country deeper into debt, expand government power, and further curtail individual liberty and economic freedom. Though we can vote against the candidate we feel will accelerate this trend, our votes may do nothing to change the direction we are headed.

Mining Stocks’ Rally Despite Gold’s Decline

Posted: 29 Sep 2016 12:35 PM PDT

Quite a few rallies in the recent months were preceded by the mining stocks’ outperformance relative to gold and we just saw the same kind of phenomenon on Wednesday – GDX rallied while gold declined. Is the bottom in? Let’s take a look at the miners’ chart for details - other charts don’t feature important changes from what we described previously so mining stocks are the part of the PM sector that we’ll focus on in today’s free article (charts courtesy of http://stockcharts.com):

D-Day Minus One for the Dollar

Posted: 29 Sep 2016 12:27 PM PDT

This post D-Day Minus One for the Dollar appeared first on Daily Reckoning.

Never trust the establishment media to wrap their arms around a complicated story about global finance. Especially when the story involves the machinations of elites.

So it goes with the event Jim Rickards has taken to calling "D-Day" for the U.S. dollar — scheduled shortly after the markets close tomorrow afternoon.

At that time, the Chinese yuan will be included in the International Monetary Fund's special drawing rights. SDRs are a form of "world money" exchanged among governments and central banks.

World Money

So what's it to you?

With the date looming, Bloomberg decided to take a stab this week: "The yuan's ascent is a validation of the importance of the world's second-biggest economy and the work policymakers have done to allow freer access to the nation's markets."

Well yes. Paging Captain Obvious.

Hey Barron's, you want to give it a try?

"From a reform perspective, the renminbi's SDR status confirms the recognition by the international community of China's economic ascendancy and structural reform efforts."

Also true. But this change is far more than Western elites patting Chinese leaders on the head for playing by their rules.

And so we return to some points we first made 45 days ago, when Jim first rolled out the "D-Day" theme…

Consider "D-Day" another milestone on the dollar's long march to oblivion — akin to when President Nixon cut the dollar's last tie to gold in 1971.

He made the announcement on a Sunday night. Life didn't change much on Monday morning.

Not right away. The event doesn't even show up dramatically on the chart below. But it was still an essential move in the dollar's long-term trajectory…

A Century of Dollar Destruction

As outrageous as that chart is, it's ancient history in the context of the dollars you hold in your pocket now. After all, you still use them to purchase goods and services… and the adjustment to the SDR doesn't change that.

But the adjustment does ensure the purchasing power of those dollars will weaken at an accelerating pace. The dollar of 1913 that's worth only 4 cents now will soon be worth only 3 cents… then 2… then 1… and so on.

"Everything will cost more to pick, ship or stock," says Jim. "Soon you'll pay a little extra for apples at the fruit stand. At the coffee shop, they'll tack another quarter on the price of a latte.

"Online prices will go up when you buy anything tech, because all that's imported. And it costs more to get it out for delivery."

"On Wall Street, all kinds of ledgers will start to ooze red," Jim goes on. "The multinationals will get hit first.”

"And that's where the crisis will accelerate: As dollars lose clout, paying an overseas workforce will lose luster. Sweetheart import deals will dry up… and so will international tax treaties… until 'cheap' goods no longer exist for Americans."

Again, it all starts tomorrow after the market closes for the week. Life on Saturday won't feel much different. And unlike 1971, no one will interrupt prime-time TV to let you know. That's why Jim's been banging the drum these last six weeks.

As a practical matter, it won't make so much difference if you start making plans today or next week or even sometime before year-end. But you do need to prepare. If you aren't up to speed yet, we urge you to check out Jim's D-Day expose before it's overtaken by events tomorrow.

Regards,

Regards,

Dave Gonigam
for The 5 Min. Forecast

P.S. One more time: The world won't come to an end tomorrow. But your world will be changed forever in ways not one in a million people will understand.

If you want that understanding — and unique tools, beyond just gold, to preserve your wealth as the dollar begins its final stage of destruction — please check out Jim Rickards' presentation right away.

The post D-Day Minus One for the Dollar appeared first on Daily Reckoning.

Donald Trump vs. Hillary Clinton | Presidential Debate Analysis

Posted: 29 Sep 2016 11:33 AM PDT

 On September 26th, 2016, Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton participated in the first Presidential debate between the Republican and Democratic candidates - moderated by Lester Holt. The Financial Armageddon Economic Collapse Blog tracks trends and forecasts , futurists ,...

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Breaking News.. World war 3 going to start soon asked Putin|Must Watch

Posted: 29 Sep 2016 10:11 AM PDT

 Obama  said his visit was because of CLIMATE CHANGE..YA..everything he does is because of ''CLIMATE CHANGE'' Not the weather ''CLIMATE CHANGE'' that's for sure...The  climate change in which they will change the world for the end... The Financial Armageddon Economic Collapse...

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Gold deal making heating up as Kirkland Lake swallows Newmarket

Posted: 29 Sep 2016 10:11 AM PDT

By Danielle Bochove
Bloomberg News
Thursday, September 29, 2016

A proposed merger between two Canada-based gold miners is the latest example of consolidation in an industry that remains under pressure to cut costs, even as stronger gold prices smooth the way for deal-making.

Today Kirkland Lake Gold Inc. agreed to buy Newmarket Gold Inc. in an all-stock deal valued at C$1.01 billion (US$770 million), creating what the companies said will be a low-cost producer focused on Canada and Australia.

"It certainly fits with the theme of looking at junior and intermediate producers trying to move up the food chain, creating a new tier of intermediate producers nipping at the heels of the senior producers," Michael Siperco, an analyst with Macquarie Capital Markets in Toronto, said by telephone.

Deal making in the gold industry this quarter is the busiest in a year by volume of transactions, according to data compiled by Bloomberg, as surging metal and stock prices give companies more scope to grow through acquisitions. ...

Kirkland Chief Executive Officer Tony Makuch will lead the company and sit on its board, while Kirkland Chairman Eric Sprott will have the same title in the combined company. Sprott is also a major shareholder in Newmarket, holding 13.5 percent of shares outstanding, according to data compiled by Bloomberg, which also shows him holding 6.7 percent of Kirkland's outstanding shares.

The deal was unanimously approved by both boards, with the exception of Sprott, who didn't vote, the companies said. ...

... For the remainder of the report:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-09-29/kirkland-agrees-to-buy...



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Sandspring Resources Commences 2016 Exploration Campaign

Company Announcement
August 17, 2016

Sandspring Resources Ltd. (TSX VENTURE:SSP, US OTC: SSPXF) is pleased to announce commencement of the 2016 exploration campaign at its Toroparu Gold Project in Guyana, South America.

In 2015 the company completed a 3,700-meter diamond drilling program on the promising Sona Hill Prospect, located 5 kilometers southeast of the main Toroparu deposit. Sona Hill is the easternmost gold anomaly in a cluster of 10 gold features located within a 20-by-7-kilometer hydrothermal alteration halo around Toroparu. Drilling at Sona Hill in 2012 and in 2015 intercepted high-grade mineralization in both saprolite and bedrock, and confirmed the continuity and grade potential of the Sona Hill mineralization.

For the remainder of the announcement and highlights of the 2015 drill program:

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/sandspring-resources-commences-2016-explo...



Join GATA here:

New Orleans Investment Conference
Wednesday-Saturday, October 26-29, 2016
Hilton New Orleans Riverside
New Orleans, Louisiana
http://neworleansconference.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/08/2016_Powell.h...

Help GATA by purchasing DVDs of GATA's London conference in August 2011 or GATA's Dawson City conference in August 2006:

http://www.goldrush21.com/order.html

Or by purchasing a colorful poster of GATA's full-page ad in The Wall Street Journal on January 31, 2009:

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Help keep GATA going

GATA is a civil rights and educational organization based in the United States and tax-exempt under the U.S. Internal Revenue Code. Its e-mail dispatches are free, and you can subscribe at:

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Gold Investments Remarkable Return Set to Run in 2017

Posted: 29 Sep 2016 10:09 AM PDT

Bullion Vault

Russian central bank buys gold because it can do it with depreciating rubles

Posted: 29 Sep 2016 10:06 AM PDT

Russia's Adding Another 200 Tons of Gold to Its Treasury and Here's Why

From Sputnik News, Moscow
Thursday, September 29, 2016

Russia plans to stock up on about 200 tons of gold this year, nearly matching the 208 tons it purchased in 2015. That's according to Anton Navoi, the deputy head of the statistics department at the Russian Central Bank. Navoi explained that it's profitable for the state to buy the precious metal, since Russia is a world leader in its production.

Speaking at a conference on Wednesday, the official said that "last year the central bank purchased 208 tons of gold. This year it will purchase around 200 tons." Gold currently accounts for around 16 percent of the country's foreign exchange reserves, Navoi noted. And while there is no direct effort to increase the precious metal's share in Russia's reserves, it seems likely to happen, as the purchase of gold is profitable for the country.

"The central bank is buying gold because it is profitable. We are a country that is third in the world in terms of gold production, and we have the ability to buy it using our national currency, in contrast to other countries, which do not have such an opportunity," the banker concluded. ...

... For the remainder of the report:

https://sputniknews.com/russia/20160929/1045824826/russia-gold-stock-up-...



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NewCastle Gold's New CEO, Gerald Panneton, Hits the Ground Running

By Tommy Humphreys
CEO.ca
Tuesday, September 6, 2016

Mining entrepreneur Gerald Panneton took a few years off after building one of Canada's largest gold miners, Detour Gold. He raced performance cars in his down time, and conducted due diligence on various mining assets to potentially back.

This summer, the geologist set his sights on NewCastle Gold (TSXV:NCA), owner of a past-producing gold mine in California with similarities to Detour Gold in its early days. ...

... For the remainder of the report:

https://ceo.ca/@tommy/new-newcastle-gold-ceo-gerald-panneton-hits-the-gr...



Join GATA here:

New Orleans Investment Conference
Wednesday-Saturday, October 26-29, 2016
Hilton New Orleans Riverside
New Orleans, Louisiana
http://neworleansconference.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/08/2016_Powell.h...

Help GATA by purchasing DVDs of GATA's London conference in August 2011 or GATA's Dawson City conference in August 2006:

http://www.goldrush21.com/order.html

Or by purchasing a colorful poster of GATA's full-page ad in The Wall Street Journal on January 31, 2009:

http://tinyurl.com/zr4tjuc

Help keep GATA going

GATA is a civil rights and educational organization based in the United States and tax-exempt under the U.S. Internal Revenue Code. Its e-mail dispatches are free, and you can subscribe at:

http://www.gata.org

To contribute to GATA, please visit:

http://www.gata.org/node/16

Another German bank in trouble: Commerzbank to cut 9,600 jobs, suspend dividend

Posted: 29 Sep 2016 05:31 AM PDT

By Marion Dakers
The Telegraph, London
Thursday, September 29, 2016

Commerzbank, the second-biggest bank in Germany, has suspended its dividend and revealed more than 9,000 job losses as it tries to shore up its business in the face of ultra-low interest rates and sagging client activity.

The bank said its decision to cut almost one in five of its employees worldwide and merge two of its largest businesses will result in a E700-million write-off and a loss for this quarter. ...

... For the remainder of the report:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/09/29/now-another-german-bank-i...



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Gold Standard Continues to Expand North Dark Star High-Grade Deposit

Company Announcement
Wednesday, September 14, 2016

VANCOUVER, British Columbia, Canada -- Gold Standard Ventures Corp. (TSXV: GSV; NYSE MKT:GSV) today announced assay results from two holes, DS16-21 and DS16-04, at the recently discovered North Dark Star oxide gold deposit on its fully-owned and controlled Railroad-Pinion Project in Nevada's Carlin Trend. Results from DS16-21 have increased the width of the deposit and, more importantly, have confirmed that higher-grade oxide mineralization projects up-dip to more shallow depths to the east of DS16-08.

The primary objective of this year's drill program at North Dark Star was to expand the high-grade zone discovered in core hole DS15-13 (15.4 meters of 1.85 gold grams per tonne and 97 meters of 1.61 gold grams per tonne) at the end of last year's drill program. ...

...For the remainder of the announcement:

https://goldstandardv.com/news/2016/expansion-gold-standards-north-dark-...



Join GATA here:

New Orleans Investment Conference
Wednesday-Saturday, October 26-29, 2016
Hilton New Orleans Riverside
New Orleans, Louisiana
http://neworleansconference.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/08/2016_Powell.h...

Help GATA by purchasing DVDs of GATA's London conference in August 2011 or GATA's Dawson City conference in August 2006:

http://www.goldrush21.com/order.html

Or by purchasing a colorful poster of GATA's full-page ad in The Wall Street Journal on January 31, 2009:

http://tinyurl.com/zr4tjuc

Help keep GATA going

GATA is a civil rights and educational organization based in the United States and tax-exempt under the U.S. Internal Revenue Code. Its e-mail dispatches are free, and you can subscribe at:

http://www.gata.org

To contribute to GATA, please visit:

http://www.gata.org/node/16

Russian central bank can't explain why it keeps buying gold

Posted: 29 Sep 2016 05:20 AM PDT

Russian Central Bank Says It Has No Aim to Raise Gold's Share in Reserves

By Yelena Fabrichnaya, Lidia Kelly, and Maria Kiselyova
Reuters
Wednesday, September 28, 2016

http://www.reuters.com/article/russia-cenbank-gold-reserves-idUSR4N1BY01...

Russia's Central Bank is ready to continue buying gold from banks but has no quotas or objective to increase the metal's share in its gold and foreign exchange reserves, the bank's First Deputy Governor Dmitry Tulin said on Wednesday.

"We are not currently selling foreign currency from reserves but keep buying gold, for which prices are rising, which has led to a rise of gold's share in reserves," Tulin told reporters.

"We don't have an operational target of increasing gold's share in reserves but it may grow naturally," he said, adding the bank had made an offer to banks to buy gold.



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K92 Mining Shows What 'Fast Track' Really Means

Company Announcement
By Kevin Silva
Market One Media, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada
via Business News Network, Toronto
September 18, 2016

"Fast-tracking" is an overused phrase in the mining sector. But K92 Mining Inc. (TSX.V: KNT) has demonstrated exactly what that concept means.

Less than four months after going public on May 25, the company has completed additional financings totaling $18.5 million. It also refurbished the mill and mine facilities with enhanced processing capacity and has two drills turning onsite. With all this accomplished, production looks to be just days away.

"The technical team on site has done an excellent job with the production restart, and we are on schedule and on budget," says Director and Chief Operating Officer John Lewins. "With that focus on track, and with the enhanced financial flexibility resulting from our recent financings, we are now looking to target a resource expansion that we believe exists."

K92 has under-promised and over-delivered. ...

... For the remainder of the announcement:

http://www.bnn.ca/k92-shows-what-fast-track-really-means-1.568196



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US Government & Big Pharma Are Voilating Our Rights & Eliminating Medical Choice Brandy Vaughn

Posted: 29 Sep 2016 05:20 AM PDT

Doctors are either complicit or brainwashed. We must acknowledge, that we are officially under attack. The "checks & balances" penetrated, our leaders sure to be remembered as merciless, mass murderers. The Financial Armageddon Economic Collapse Blog tracks trends and forecasts ,...

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The World is on the Edge of a Deflationary Black Hole

Posted: 29 Sep 2016 05:03 AM PDT

THE WORLD IS ON THE EDGE OF A DEFLATIONARY BLACK HOLE

blackholeThe world economy is now at its most dangerous point in history. In virtually every major country or region, there are problems of a magnitude which individually could trigger a collapse of the financial system. Because of the interconnectivity of the system, when the first domino starts falling, there … Read the rest

GOLD MARKET FLASH NOTE: Ending With a Bang, Not a Whimper

Posted: 29 Sep 2016 01:00 AM PDT

Rudi Fronk and Jim Anthony, co-founders of Seabridge Gold, discuss how extreme monetary policy does not stimulate growth.

RT Minerals Is Cheap and the Empire Just Ended

Posted: 29 Sep 2016 01:00 AM PDT

Bob Moriarty of 321 Gold discusses RT Minerals, a small, inexpensive Canadian explorer that's flying under the radar.

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