Monday, September 26, 2016

Gold World News Flash

Gold World News Flash


LOL: The Rothschild’s Economist Magazine Targets Trump With ‘Art of the lie’ Article

Posted: 25 Sep 2016 07:00 PM PDT

from Economist:

CONSIDER how far Donald Trump is estranged from fact. He inhabits a fantastical realm where Barack Obama's birth certificate was faked, the president founded Islamic State (IS), the Clintons are killers and the father of a rival was with Lee Harvey Oswald before he shot John F. Kennedy.

Mr Trump is the leading exponent of "post-truth" politics—a reliance on assertions that "feel true" but have no basis in fact. His brazenness is not punished, but taken as evidence of his willingness to stand up to elite power. And he is not alone. Members of Poland's government assert that a previous president, who died in a plane crash, was assassinated by Russia. Turkish politicians claim the perpetrators of the recent bungled coup were acting on orders issued by the CIA. The successful campaign for Britain to leave the European Union warned of the hordes of immigrants that would result from Turkey's imminent accession to the union.

If, like this newspaper, you believe that politics should be based on evidence, this is worrying. Strong democracies can draw on inbuilt defences against post-truth. Authoritarian countries are more vulnerable.

Lord of the lies – That politicians sometimes peddle lies is not news: think of Ronald Reagan's fib that his administration had not traded weapons with Iran in order to secure the release of hostages and to fund the efforts of rebels in Nicaragua. Dictators and democrats seeking to deflect blame for their own incompetence have always manipulated the truth; sore losers have always accused the other lot of lying.

But post-truth politics is more than just an invention of whingeing elites who have been outflanked. The term picks out the heart of what is new: that truth is not falsified, or contested, but of secondary importance. Once, the purpose of political lying was to create a false view of the world. The lies of men like Mr Trump do not work like that. They are not intended to convince the elites, whom their target voters neither trust nor like, but to reinforce prejudices.

Feelings, not facts, are what matter in this sort of campaigning. Their opponents' disbelief validates the us-versus-them mindset that outsider candidates thrive on. And if your opponents focus on trying to show your facts are wrong, they have to fight on the ground you have chosen. The more Remain campaigners attacked the Leave campaign's exaggerated claim that EU membership cost Britain £350m ($468m) a week, the longer they kept the magnitude of those costs in the spotlight.

Post-truth politics has many parents. Some are noble. The questioning of institutions and received wisdom is a democratic virtue. A sceptical lack of deference towards leaders is the first step to reform. The collapse of communism was hastened because brave people were prepared to challenge the official propaganda.

But corrosive forces are also at play. One is anger. Many voters feel let down and left behind, while the elites who are in charge have thrived. They are scornful of the self-serving technocrats who said that the euro would improve their lives and that Saddam Hussein had weapons of mass destruction. Popular trust in expert opinion and established institutions has tumbled across Western democracies.

Read More @ Economist.com

Dr. Lisa Bardack’s Faustian Bargain

Posted: 25 Sep 2016 05:50 PM PDT

Submitted by Jay Michaels via AmericanThinker.com,

“Oh what tangled webs we weave, when we first practice to deceive.”  Sir Walter Scott

When Dr. Lisa Bardack was asked to become Hillary Clinton’s personal physician in 2001, it had to have been a crowning moment in the career of the Mt. Kisco internist.  Dr. Bardack could have anticipated little downside.  She already had the responsibility -- and legal obligation under HIPAA -- to protect the privacy of her patient.  She and her staff would have to be especially scrupulous in the case of a senator with presidential ambitions, but this should not have posed a serious problem.

Unfortunately, Hillary Clinton corrupts everyone who serves her.  And this year Bardack encountered difficulties she could not have foreseen in 2001:

1.  Clinton developed serious medical issues.

 

2.  The candidate was being videoed, not only during campaign stops, speeches, townhalls, and the rare press conference, but before and after events -- by individuals with cell phones who were under no obligation to obey orders given to servile journalists to turn off their cameras.

 

3.  The internet not only permitted the mass distribution of these videos and photos, but it enabled those who were curious to check Bardack’s reports against information available on reputable medical sites.  It also enabled skeptical physicians to share their doubts with hundreds of thousands of readers.

In July 2015, the Clinton campaign asked Bardack to give the candidate a clean bill of health.  She was to disclose, selectively, some of her patient’s medical history.  But the letter was not widely analyzed until after the disturbing September 11 video by Zdenek Gazda, the Zapruder of 2016.  It was no longer possible to dismiss those asking questions about Hillary’s health as right-wing conspiracy theorists, and the campaign now requested a second letter from Dr. Bardack explaining the event.  The physician duly issued a report on September 14.  Now her real problems began.

Let’s take a look at the two letters and some of questions doctors have asked about the diagnoses and treatment.

I.  The letter of 12 July 2015

Bardack’s summary revealed a couple of major health problems that had not been previously disclosed.  We had been told that Clinton suffered an elbow fracture in 2009 and a concussion in 2012.  The fact that a woman in her mid-60s would fall twice ought perhaps to have raised some red flags.  In particular, unless you’re being tackled or attacked, a concussion can usually be avoided by the body’s reflexes.  Arms are extended to break the fall.

But now the public learned that some time in 2009 and in December 2012, the month of the concussion, Clinton had suffered blood clots.

She already had a history of clotting.  Running for the Presidential nomination in the fall of 2007, Hillary gave an extended interview on her 60th birthday in which she disclosed that she’d had a life-threatening medical emergency in 1998.  The crisis had been kept a secret not only from the public, but from her staff, who were told she had a sprained ankle.  Clinton’s foot had swollen and she was in great pain.  A White House doctor told her to rush to Bethesda Naval Hospital, where the diagnosis of a blood clot was made.  "That was scary,” Hillary said, “because you have to treat it immediately -- you don't want to take the risk that it will break lose and travel to your brain, or your heart or your lungs.  That was the most significant health scare I've ever had."  Clinton assured the reporter that she was no longer on blood thinners. This was probably the last time Hillary spoke candidly about her health.

What Clinton had was a deep vein thrombosis, or venous thromboembolism (VTE).  The blood clot is usually in the leg, and in Hillary’s case, it was behind the right knee.

Now Dr. Bardack revealed that Hillary had had two others.  The first, in 2009, was another VTE, but the second was still more serious.  It was a right transverse cerebral venous sinus thrombosis (CVST).  This is a clot in one of the two channels between layers of the dura, the membrane enclosing the brain, which receive blood and cerebrospinal fluid.  A clot here means that blood flow out of the brain is impeded, and there is the potential for a hemorrhage if there’s leakage into the cerebral tissues.  The Johns Hopkins Health Library refers to it as a rare form of stroke affecting only five in one million individuals.  It’s treated with anti-seizure medicines as well as anticoagulants, and the complications range from impaired speech, difficulty moving parts of the body, and vision problems to death.

There were two problems in the 2015 letter relating to the clot:

1)  Clinton, her physician wrote, “began anticoagulation therapy to dissolve the clot.”  But this is not something anticoagulants do.  Two of these drugs are mentioned by Bardack:  Lovenox, which was discontinued beuing administered to her in 1998, and Coumadin (warfarin). 

Bristol-Myers-Squibb, its manufacturer, says explicitly that the medication doesn’t dissolve clots: 

COUMADIN has no direct effect on an established thrombus, nor does it reverse ischemic tissue damage.

Every doctor prescribing Coumadin knows this.  Because of patient expectations, all reputable medical sites, like the NIH’s PubMed, repeat the warning.

There are thrombolytic (clot-dissolving) drugs, injected by catheter or infused through an i.v., but none are mentioned by Bardack.  In any case, the embolisms for which thrombolytic agents are indicated don’t correspond to Clinton’s, and these drugs are never referred to as anticoagulants.

2.  A second problem comes with the duration of the symptoms.  Bardack says that these lasted for less than two months.  But according to Bill Clinton, his wife’s injury “required six months of very serious work to get over.”

Of course it could be that the four addition months of symptoms were the result not of the concussion, but the CVST.  However, it would not be easy to differentiate these symptoms.  One is instinctively disinclined to take the former President’s word on anything, but there’d be no reason for him to exaggerate the length of time it took his wife to recover.

In any case, what the public was told was an elbow fracture (Hillary sported a State Department sling) and a concussion (she was jokingly presented with a football helmet by her minions) coincided with problems much more ominous.

3.  A third issue in the 2015 letter is Bardack’s final evaluation of her patient.  Twice she calls Clinton “a healthy female” and concludes that “she is in excellent physical condition and fit to serve as President of the United States.”

While Bardack could hardly have been expected to write otherwise, the truth is that anyone who is on lifelong Coumadin is not in excellent physical condition.  As is well known, warfarin was developed as a rat poison, and increases significantly the risk of intercranial intracranial bleeding.   A recent ten-year study of 32,000 veterans found that nearly one-third developed intercranial intracranial bleeds while on warfarin.  The vets were over 75, but the high figure was still very disturbing, though probably not surprising to most physicians.

Dr. Milton Wolf, a board-certified radiologist, writes, “Coumadin carries a substantial risk for patients, particularly those with fall risk. Spontaneous hemorrhage common, intracranial and elsewhere. I see it commonly, including life-threatening brain bleeds. Normal, healthy patients are NEVER, NEVER prescribed Coumadin.”  There are safer anticoagulants.  “Coumadin is typically given to those who can’t afford the newer drugs or reserved for cases that are refractory to the safer drugs.”  Wolf speculates that Clinton probably has a hypercoagulable blood disorder.  Coumadin would otherwise be given only to patients with chronic atrial fibrillation (like the vets) or with prosthetic heart valves, both of which can cause hypercoagulation.

The interactions with warfarin are also sobering.  In addition to avoiding both NSAIDs and acetaminophen, users are advised not to use, or to use with caution, antibiotics, anti-fungal medications, anti-depressants, and seizure medication -- carbamazepine (Carbatrol, Equetro, Tegretol), phenobarbital (Solfoton), and phenytoin (Dilantin).

Whether or not Hillary has been put at risk by seizure medications, the whole world now knows about her propensity to fall.  The airplane and podium stumbles and her being helped up a short flight of steps had gone viral long before the 9/11 collapse.  And we know nothing about the falls that have occurred off-camera, except for the one that gave her a concussion.  Family friends have told Ed Klein these falls are frequent.  And head trauma is the number one concern for patients on Coumadin.

4.  Still another disclosure in Bardack’s July 2015 letter raised eyebrows.  In addition to taking Coumadin for the rest of her life, Hillary will also be on Armour thyroid until she dies.  Unlike CVST, hypothyroidism, an underactive thyroid gland, is common.  In fact, the most frequently prescribed drug in the U.S. (though not the most lucrative) is Synthroid, synthetic levothyroidoxine, the major hormone the gland produces.

Armour thyroid is an extract of desiccated pig’s thyroid.  The therapy dates to the 19th century, and the American Association of Clinical Endocrinologists recommends that it not be used.  But a case can be made for natural thyroid therapy, and one recent study found that more patients prefer it, though there was no difference in the control of symptoms.  These include memory problems and difficulty thinking clearly.  A physician who is one of the most vocal advocates of natural thyroid switched to a different brand of natural thyroid after Armour changed the tablet formula in 2009.

II.  The letter of 14 September 2016

1.  Bardack disclosed that Clinton was given a brain scan for an ear infection after she had “experienced significant improvement in her symptoms.”  The physician of a patient “in excellent health” would not normally order a CT scan for an ear infection that was being successfully treated by antibiotics and a myringotomy tube.  Bardack’s caution, however commendable, suggests she was worried about some underlying problem.

2.  Bardack then discusses Hillary’s pneumonia.  When an upper respiratory infection persisted for a week after Clinton had been prescribed antibiotics and allergy medicine, Bardack, on Sept. 9, ordered “a non-contrast chest CT scan, including a CTA calcium score.”

According to Dr. Wolf, a CTA (a CT angiogram) scan always requires a contrast.  On the other hand, a CT calcium score study must always be non-contrast, otherwise “the coronary calcifications would be masked by the contrast in the arteries.”  The radiologist concluded that “Hillary’s doctor just claimed Hillary got a perfect score on a test that does not exist.”

It’s likely that Bardack misstated what she’d ordered -- though one would think she would be extraordinarily careful in a letter that would be read by millions.  A coronary calcium scoring CT does not use contrast, while a CTA requires it. A simple thoracic CT, which is what Hillary must have received, may or may not be done with contrast.

3.  Then there’s the finding from the scan:  “a small right middle-lobe pneumonia,” further described as “a mild non-contagious bacterial pneumonia.”

Doctors immediately questioned this diagnosis.  There is no such thing as a non-contagious pneumonia, tweeted Dr. Wolf. How did Hillary pick it up?  What about all the reports  the campaign circulated about staffers who’d come down with pneumonia, including manager Robbie Mook?

While bacterial pneumonia is not as contagious as viral pneumonia, there is no test to determine whether or not a patient is contagious.  A doctor defending Bardack listed three types of bacterial pneumonia not likely to be contagious.  The only one that Hillary could possibly have had was aspiration pneumonia.

The dubious adjective “non-contagious” may have been dictated to Bardack by Clinton.  The problem, obviously, was that after her collapse, the candidate went directly to her daughter’s apartment, where she presumably exposed her grandchildren to pneumonia, then, 90 minutes later, bounced out of the building, exulting that it was a beautiful day in New York, and embraced a little girl, exposing her, too, to the infection.

Other doctors have also pointed out how the photo-op undercut the “pneumonia” explanation.  “I’m feeling great,” Hillary said three times, not something a pneumonia patient is likely to exclaim.

4.  Apart from a case of “mild non-contagious pneumonia,” what felled Clinton on September 11th, wrote Bardack, was that “she became overheated and dehydrated.”  Even MSM reporters questioned the “overheated” pretext.  The day was partly cloudy and the temperature about 80, with a slight breeze.  Dehydration is hardly less suspicious.  First of all, it’s been used repeatedly for other falls.  And medical science has come up with a cure for dehydration.  While Marco Rubio was ridiculed for taking a swig of water in the middle his reply to the President’s 2013 State of the Union address, no one who valued his job would criticize Hillary for “re-hydrating” during an event.  One would expect that someone who had experienced multiple falls and was

Smoking Hot Wives, Gold, And The Dollar (+ Other Good Stuff)

Posted: 25 Sep 2016 04:54 PM PDT

By Chris at www.CapitalistExploits.at

It's been a while since I did a Q&A, and though I have a number of things I could discuss they will wait for another day for two very important reasons.

Firstly, by doing a Q&A I can reply to questions which typically takes me a bit shorter than it does to write longer articles. This is important because it's a Friday night and my wife is looking smoking hot...

The second point. Oh, I forget what that was. Onto it then...

"Hi,


I just downloaded your US$ Bull Market Report from Dec. 2014.  It seems most of your predictions did not work out and the US$ has been in broadly a sideways to slightly up market since then.  The Yen is back to 100.


Your entire thesis on the US$ Bull Market appears to be based on the notion that US interest rates will rise whilst interest rates everywhere else will stay low or fall or even go negative.


Doesn't your recent podcast on owning gold negate the US$ bull stance? With the FED having postponed its tightening cycle several time and the market now starting to doubt the FED will ever raise interest rates, does your stance from 2014 still stand?


 What is your stance on the USD/JPY? It seems the JPY is the new save haven currency which strengthens whenever there is a crisis. Do you still stand by your prediction that the JPY will weaken substantially against the USD?


Where do you buy the currency options (especially USD/JPY) you refer to in your write-up? Could you kindly let me know which exchange they are traded on? (I have market access to all major exchanges).


 Kind Regards


R.S"

Let me break the questions down one by one.

Dollar Index

Not sure what charts you're looking at but to get on the same page here is what we said on November 13, 2014:

"A bull market in the US Dollar is underway and its magnitude and duration are likely to catch everyone by surprise. I believe it isn't out of the question for the USD Index to advance by at least 50% within the next 5 years. If this forecast proves correct, there will be profound ramifications for the global economy and many financial markets, particularly emerging markets."

The Dollar Report was published a few weeks later so the thesis is the same. At the time it was trading at 86. And today we're at 95. Didn't we just catch the biggest move in the last decade?

DXY Index

We've been bumping and grinding for the last 12 months and we are forming a converging wedge which typically portends a break. I think we break higher. Maybe I'm wrong but that's where the weight of probability lies for me right now.

Remember, the dollar spent 10 straight years doing nothing but go down. To expect it to go up in a linear fashion is foolish. It's not going to happen. Markets don't work like that. They are non-linear.

The dollar bull thesis is in part due to an interest rate differential - as you mention - but there is more to it than that. The USD carry trade unwinding is arguably a much bigger force behind a rising dollar than interest rate arbitrage.

Then there is the fact that on a relative basis, especially politically, the US looks a whole lot less shaky than does Europe or Japan, where Kuroda-san continues on the path to destroy the yen. This is a ridiculously sad situation given that the two podium donuts on show in the US actually look less bad than the clutch of parasites at the helm in Europe. It is what it is.

USD and Gold

With regards to being dollar bullish as well as long-term gold bullish I believe we are likely to see both rising simultaneously.

--------------------------------------

Kyle Bass Gold

--------------------------------------

The factors driving the two asset classes are at this point in time working to strengthen both. For more on this you can listen to my discussion with Raoul Pal.

Yen

I guess this is not really fair if you've not been a long term reader as we put out a special Japan report in January 2012 saying we were shorting the yen. It was at 72. Twelve months later at 89, and hit a high of 125 before moving back to 100 today.

For me this is a long term trade I'm happy to have on for the next decade. I actually think it's possible we get back down to 95 before heading much higher. I'm not prepared to buy the yen in anticipation of that but if we get there I'll be pressing the short trade. This is quite simply something that I think you can set and forget and not be too worried about short-term noise.

Options on currencies are available via the Saxo platform. If you're a US citizen then you're a lepper to Saxo and they don't want anything to do with you.

Easy enough to get around by using an offshore (non-US) company to open an account. I don't know of any other platform that offers options on currencies. Perhaps readers can comment below if they know of any.

Next question:

"Thanks for your fantastic blog - it is much appreciated. I would be very interested in your view on two points:


  1. China looks like a Ponzi scheme to me too. However in the tradition of searching for non-bias-confirming views, I come accross the argument that Chinese SOE debt is not as bad as it looks because savings are very high, those savings fund corporate loans, and therefore in China debt is often used as a substitute for raising capital in the equity markets. By this reasoning, a debt for equity swap could at a stroke hugely reduce the debt load. An example of this argument is here:

 

https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/china-moving-from-debt-to-equity-by-andrew-sheng-and-xiao-geng-2016-05


  1. I have heard you talk about the frequency of six-sigma events in today's markets. This may or may not be remarkable, but I think we have to exercise caution over this interpretation of a statistical measure. Standard deviations are only applicable to normally distributed events, and financial events are certainly very far from normally distributed. I think that the frequency of n-sigma events is just re-enforcing this fact, though of course their increase does point to a change in the climate. Do you agree with this?

 

Thanks again,

 

Matthew"

China, a Ponzi Scheme?

This argument has been used before. It's a variation of "we owe it to ourselves so it doesn't matter".

Let's say you lent money to your cousin Joey who, instead of using using it to grow his business as promised, bought a Bentley (he clearly has terrible taste).

Since you found that, after he failed to pay you back your money on time, he's put some mileage on it, taken out an additional loan against the car to access some more cash, and dinged it parallel parking which we can't really blame him for since it's such a big ugly sucker. You're family so it doesn't matter?

What about a debt for equity swap? You get the equity in his "ugly as sin" Bentley. But wait, it's encumbered and when you net out the debt against the equity you realise the equity is close to worthless. Does it matter?

Here's the issue. Economists call it pushing on string:

In 2015, total Chinese government debt increased by a CNY4.6 trillion, or about US$700 billion.

Problem is, in 2004, one yuan in new debt generated 73 cents in additional GDP. By 2009, this was down to 33 cents. Today, the ratio is less than 1 to 4. You don't need me to explain to you that when your debt is increasing four times faster than your income you're heading fast towards the edge of a cliff.

This is the real tragedy of central bank policy. By these bureaucrats' warped logic, the fact that the increase in debt is no longer having the desired effect is used as evidence that in fact more debt is required. This lands up being a debt multiplier in that an ever increasing amount of debt is required to achieve the same level of growth. To the point that now we sit with central banks pushing NIRP down our collective throats.

As I mentioned earlier this week, with the help of some birds to explain the situation, we now await blowback.

Six Sigma Market Events

The increase in frequency of such events is unmistakable but not unsurprising.

It points to a period of time that is unlike the periods of time we've been experiencing: unchartered waters. Imbalances have consequences and greater imbalances beget greater consequences.

Ergo, more 6 sigma events on the horizon.

Onto the next one:

"Hi Chris, 

 

Thank you for continuing to post unique and insightful content on CapEx! Really invaluable insight. One topic I would like to pick your brain on, and which has been a topic of a few of your latest posts, is inflation:

 

Over the past 8 years we had an incredible amount of asset price inflation due to QE/NIRP etc. as liquidity remained in the financial system. How likely is, in your opinion, that eventually this will be reflected into CPI/consumer goods?

 

The potential scenarios I see:

 

On one hand (Scenario 1 - Deflationary Bust) this asset inflation boom might end a-la '08, as FED raises rates/dollar strengthens triggering a repricing of asset prices 

 

On the other hand (Scenario 2 - Stagflation), the FED might stay put (after a small raise of benchmark rates) and fiscal policy on a worldwide scale is more accommodating; this will unleash a wave of wage/consumer goods inflation.

 

I used to think that the most likely scenario was Deflationary Bust followed by even more aggressive QE/fiscal policy which in turn would lead to Stagflation. Now though I am more inclined to think that Scenario 2 is a real possibility (because of structural impossibility of raising rates significantly without triggering a crisis; additionally policy speeches seems to be shifting towards more fiscal easing as well lately). 

 

What are your thoughts? And how should Scenario 2 be traded - short rates or short currencies? So far currencies have been the release valve, but are we going to assist to a paradigm shift whereby rates will have be forced upwards (by inflation expectations/market or as central banks catch up)? Apologies for the long e-mail.

 

Thanks,

 

M"

Firstly, thanks for the kind words.

Inflation Showing Up in CPI

To your question on inflation showing up in CPI: you're dead right. We've had asset inflation largely in financial assets to an extent that is truly frightening.

Consider that 50 years ago in pretty much any developed country in the world a home was affordable with just one working parent, healthcare was affordable, college tuition could be saved and paid for by weekend and holiday jobs at the local supermarket checkout counter, and televisions and phones were luxury expensive items.

Today everyone, including kids, has a smartphone, everyone has a TV that can't be fitted through a doorway without gymnastics. And yet home ownership, especially for millennials, is a pipe dream, college tuition can no longer be paid for by summer jobs, and healthcare insurance requires you to sell your kidney to pay for it, which of course defeats the purpose.

Many consumer goods, on the other hand, have been experiencing deflation though this is due to tech innovation and geographical labour cost arbitrage.

I don't know when inflation shows up in consumer goods.

Obviously in a bond market rout and currency crisis then inflation typically takes hold in every asset class, including consumer goods. Given that I believe there is no more GDP to be juiced out of the global economy via credit fuelled policies (NIRP, ZIRP), I think it's prudent to be looking at those asset classes which are in the "need to have" basket of consumer goods.

For example I'm beginning to get pretty interested in the soft commodities. If you take a look at the charts alone it's hard not to get a little excited.

Regarding fiscal policy. As I mentioned recently when chatting with Erik Townsend, I think fiscal policy is the next big hit, certainly in the US.

Should that bring even a whiff of inflation it could spell real trouble for what is now a bond market that is more sensitive to price movement than it's ever been!

Your question was how to trade. Rates or currencies? Both - they're reflexively related.

Next...

"Hey Chris,  

 

I'm a retired medical doctor and consider myself well read and well versed in world affairs. The first article I read of yours roughly 2 years ago really irked me. It angered me because at the time I was convinced the dollar was going to hell. I'd been reading a lot of material published by [omitted] and it was a constantly repeated theme. I felt like it was the only thing that mattered and I automatically rejected anything that contradicted what I wanted to believe. I was invested in emerging markets and foreign currencies as a result. I honestly don't know what made me sign up for your free content as I recall thinking you were a complete idiot. Perhaps I simply was convinced you would be wrong and wanted to see your ideas proven for the garbage I was convinced they were.  

 

It only took a few more articles since reading that first one, and as much as I was ready to hate you and see you proven wrong I found myself nodding my head and smiling at your ability to dispassionately see and explain what are very complex financial, social and political issues. I can tell you that over the course of time, I have a newfound understanding of our world, am certainly less dogmatic than I used to be, and your work together with Realvision TV which you introduced me to has played a significant part in that.  

 

You Sir have yourself a dedicated reader.  

 

If you would be so kind, (and I feel bad for asking for this since you've given me so much and I've given you an email address) you mentioned in an article a while back that the HK market was worth a look. I decided for the first time to act on your thoughts and bought the iShares MSCI Hong Kong ETF. I'm up over 10% and would love to know more on why you thought HK equities were a good bet.

 

Deepest thanks

 

AJ"

Wow, thanks. I'm glad you no longer hate me. That's a decent start.

One quick comment and I know I've mentioned this before but it bears repeating. The market DOESN'T care what you or I think. It doesn't care about opinions, it doesn't care about who said what or how rich or famous they may be. Dogmatism in investing is lethal. Nobody knows all the answers. Certainly not I.

Question everything and whenever someone is yelling and screaming that XYZ is absolutely going to happen it's probably a sign to be cautious, especially if they're selling something. I know a lot of incredibly smart, successful investors, and not one of them thinks they absolutely know what is going to happen. It's all just probabilities and risk management.

In any event, what you're referring to was an issue of "World Out Of Whack" back in June:

"While the focus today is on overvalued RE markets, as an investor I can't help myself from pointing out that with a P/E ratio of just 9x, Hong Kong's equity markets are today the cheapest in the world, with the Hang Seng Index trading at the biggest discount to global shares in 15 years.

 

As a reference point consider that most major stock markets typically trade at a P/E of between 15-20x, so we're looking at an equity market some 40-50% of its highs and an overvalued real estate market at the same time."

Here is the ETF you bought. We're up about 14% this quarter:

EWH ETF

Cheaper valuations obviously, a stable currency pegged to the USD (for now at least), and the coming second exchange link with China seem to point towards more favourable setup for HK equities. Where would be the first place you'd go if you were a mainland Chinese looking to diversify out of China?

That's all for now and my apologies to all those who email me and who's questions go unanswered. It's not because I don't love you too.

Have an awesome weekend wherever you are. I'm going to go find that wife of mine...

- Chris

"My most brilliant achievement was my ability to be able to persuade my wi

It’s Official: America Is Not The Greatest Country On Earth… It’s 28th!

Posted: 25 Sep 2016 04:30 PM PDT

from ZeroHedge:

Violence, alcoholism, and obesity pose the biggest risks in the U.S.

But the rest of the world isn't doing much better.

As Bloomberg reports, Iceland and Sweden share the top slot with Singapore as world leaders when it comes to health goals set by the United Nations, according to a report published in the Lancet. Using the UN's sustainable development goals as guideposts, which measure the obvious (poverty, clean water, education) and less obvious (societal inequality, industry innovation), more than 1,870 researchers in 124 countries compiled data on 33 different indicators of progress toward the UN goals related to health.

The massive study emerged from a decadelong collaboration focused on the worldwide distribution of disease.

About a year and a half ago, the researchers involved decided their data might help measure progress on what may be the single most ambitious undertaking humans have ever committed themselves to: survival. In doing so, they came up with some disturbing findings, including that the country with the biggest economy (not to mention, if we're talking about health, multibillion-dollar health-food and fitness industries) ranks No. 28 overall, between Japan and Estonia.

Bloomberg notes that the U.S. scores its highest marks in water, sanitation, and child development. That's the upside. Unsurprisingly, interpersonal violence (think gun crime) takes a heavy toll on America's overall ranking. Response to natural disasters, HIV, suicide, obesity, and alcohol abuse all require attention in the U.S. Also noteworthy are basic public health metrics that America. doesn't perform as well on as other developed countries. The U.S. is No. 64 in the rate of mothers dying for every 100,000 births, and No. 40 when it comes to the rate children under age five die.

Read More @ ZeroHedge.com

Goldmoney – Your Personal Gold Standard – A Conversation Between Peter Schiff and Roy Sebag

Posted: 25 Sep 2016 02:00 PM PDT

SIGNS OF THE END PART 212 - LATEST EVENTS SEPTEMBER 2016

Posted: 25 Sep 2016 01:30 PM PDT

 end times, end times signs, end times news, end times events, bible prophecy, prophecy in the news, tornado, earthquake, strange weather, strange events, apocalyptic signs, apocalyptic events, strange weather phenomenon The Financial Armageddon Economic Collapse Blog tracks trends...

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Gold and Silver Prices Smashed Again, GATA Chairman Bill Murphy’s Mic Was SMOKING!..

Posted: 25 Sep 2016 01:00 PM PDT

Chung Kuo

Posted: 25 Sep 2016 12:30 PM PDT

by Doug Casey, International Man:

This article is entitled Chung Kuo, which means Middle Kingdom.

The Chinese have long seen themselves as superior to every other race (like almost every race does) and the center of the world. It’s because they were so confident of this that they never ventured out as Europeans did, with a brief exception in the 15th century when a gigantic Chinese fleet, composed of ships vastly superior to those of Europe, ventured as far as Africa. Since dropping the ball on world conquest back then, or at least exporting their culture wholesale, they’ve been in stasis, and on the receiving end of what Europe had to dish out.

The Chinese resent the "gweilo", or "laowai" (loosely translated in Cantonese and Mandarin respectively as “foreign devil”) for appropriating places like Hong Kong, Macau, Shanghai, and numerous other enclaves. They resent episodes like the Opium Wars, which resolved whether they were to be used as a market for narcotics. They never learned to appreciate lots of foreign soldiers running around their countryside, even though Westerners felt it was a birthright.

Rent 55 Days at Peking for the conventional European view of imperialism during the Boxer Rebellion. Better yet, buy or rent The Sand Pebbles, in my opinion one of the best movies out there—and the book is even more entertaining and educational.

The Chinese absolutely resent the U.S. government parading its aircraft carriers off the China coast as if it owned the place. The U.S. government is not showing strength, it’s displaying arrogance and stupidity by antagonizing a sleeping dragon. And the thought of American politicians—which is to say an assortment of insular lawyers, eggheaded wannabe social engineers, and refugees from Arkansas trailer parks—negotiating with people who’ve been through what the Chinese have, is just scary. The U.S. government may feel like it can call the shots now because it has a dozen aircraft carriers and a couple thousand fighter planes. But it’s making a serious enemy while it’s going to bankrupt America in a counterproductive projection of force to the other side of the planet. And that’s not all. Because the day will go to the people with the most wealth, not the ones that have the most expensive military hardware.

The Future in China
I can give you a dozen credible scenarios describing what might happen in China over the next couple of decades. But the trend that seems certain to continue is the rapid rate of wealth increase there. I don’t credit official figures with any great accuracy, but if we take them as being approximately right, then the U.S. economy is growing at 2%, and China’s at about 7%—but with a base of about four times the population. What this means is that the largest economy on the planet will soon no longer be America’s—but China’s.

It’s already been something of a psychological smack upside the back of the head for Americans to realize that they’re far less powerful than they were in the '50s and early '60s, when America was wealthier than the rest of the whole world put together. What will it mean when it’s only a fraction as wealthy as China alone?

Of course, the average American will still be living far more comfortably than the average Chinese; he’ll still have a bigger house, more gadgets, cars, and consumer goods. But he may actually have considerably less investment capital and savings. And there will be vastly more wealthy Chinese, and they’ll have vastly more wealth than wealthy Americans.

There are a number of reasons for this. One is that Chinese culture is ingrained with the Confucian work ethic, which is quite similar to the Protestant work ethic that helped the West get where it now is. The difference is that the West has become a group of flaccid welfare states, morally weakened by its own prosperity, pretty much as Joseph Schumpeter predicted. While I’m philosophically averse to believing that success must necessarily lead to dissipation, that certainly seems to be the historical record. And it also seems pretty clear that a society, a government, a corporation, or an organization of any type is pretty much like a human body in at least one way: As it gets older, it gets weaker and more corrupt, approaching its inevitable death.

Another element of Chinese ascendance is just the sheer number of people that share a common culture and language. Upwardly mobile Chinese all learn English, the world’s language, as well as Mandarin. So they can access everything from the West, but very few people in the West will ever learn Chinese, making it hard to reverse the flow.

Further, just as every other people from a given culture tend to prefer associating and doing business with themselves—Jews, blacks, Arabs, Irish, Italians, you-name-it—the same is true of the Chinese. But they’re an order of magnitude larger than most any other cultural grouping. From a financial point of view, it’s just arithmetic.

Take an American and a Chinese, each with a dollar. Say both are equally smart and hardworking, and each is able to double his dollar every year—2, 4, 8, 16… The only difference is that the American pays 35% in taxes and the Chinese pays nothing. Actually the American is paying close to 50% and the Chinese is paying something, but the difference is about the same. With only that differential, by the time the American has one million dollars, how much does the Chinese have? The answer is that by the time the American has a million dollars in 28 years, the Chinese has 268 million.

Actually the situation is even grimmer. The Chinese will probably work harder. He’s in an environment where, if only because of minimal regulation, he’ll make his capital grow faster. If Herrnstein and Murray are right in their book The Bell Curve, the Chinese guy is smarter (105 v. 100 average IQ for Europeans). And then, when the American dies, the government will take half of his piddling million dollars for estate taxes, so his kids start with no meaningful financial capital. And probably minimal intellectual capital, if the obvious dumbing down of American schools has anything to do with it. Meanwhile, the scions of the Chinese will have an untaxed $268 million, and probably a much better education and stronger work ethic to help them deploy it.

The situation was best summed up by my friend The Great Winfield, the famous commodity speculator, who, when I asked him how he was going to deal with the eventuality, commented “After I kick the bucket, I’m going to come back as a young, good-looking girl. That way, maybe I'll get a rich Chinese boyfriend, and at least I’ll eat regularly.”

And I’m not overdoing the tax angle, either. The average American has been so brainwashed that he thinks he has a moral obligation to give the government whatever it asks for; he thinks he’s being dishonest and cheating if he puts his own and his family’s welfare above the demands of the State. At the same time, he thinks the State has a moral obligation to provide for his health, education, welfare, and retirement.

The average Chinese, however, recognizes the government as his adversary and feels no moral obligation at all towards it, only to his family. He knows the guy calling himself “the government” is just a successful warlord, and a successful warlord is just a major league criminal. He considers it his duty to deny resources to the State because he knows he can’t feed the beast and his family with the same grain of rice. And he has no concept of the State taking care of him; that’s something his family does.

Where will it all end up? In the short run, more of the world will surely resemble British Columbia, with its majority Oriental population. In the long run, the world portrayed in David Wingrove’s Chung Kuo novels, in which the Chinese dominate the world as thoroughly in the 22nd century as the Europeans did in the 19th, isn’t at all out of the question.

Read More @ InternationalMan.com

The end of the Chinese miracle

Posted: 25 Sep 2016 12:27 PM PDT

 China's economic miracle is under threat from a slowing economy and a dwindling labour force. The FT investigates how the world's most populous country has reached a critical new chapter in its history. Jamil Anderlini narrates. The Financial Armageddon Economic Collapse Blog tracks...

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One Step Away From Collapse, Are You Prepared?

Posted: 25 Sep 2016 12:00 PM PDT

by Dave Hodges, The Common Sense Show:

Can the banks withstand one more false flag event? The economy is hanging on by a thread. False flag events may no longer matter to the economic health of the nation. Last year the S&P downgraded Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan and six other major financial institutions and nobody even noticed. Here comes another bailout, but it is not going to matter. This is the pyramid of power in the US. The game is over. Your money will soon be gone. However, if you need more convincing, please read on.

The Economy Is In Free Fall

The next false flag event will likely collapse this fragile economy, if not a cyber attack upon the banks will do quite nicely. When this happens, food will not be shipped to your neighborhood grocery store. The American economy will come to a complete standstill. Economic collapse is imminent. The Baltic Dry Index, is below 500, an all-time low. This is the end!

Michael Snyder just wrote an excellent analysis related to the true state of the economy. He was quite clear and convincing in his presentation that America is already in free-fall. Every economic indicator says the economy is collapsing like a house of cards except for the Stock Market. When the Stock Market crashes, that will be the final straw. Oil has crashed as it is now selling for less than $40 a barrel. Further, Snyder writes that the cash is being sucked out of the economy. Available cash on hand is at an all-time low. America is like the punch-drunk boxer that is ready to take a tumble with the slightest amount of pressure.

There Are None So Blind As Those Who Will Not See

I feel like it's the Monday before Black Tuesday in 1929. I know that many of you have family members who think you are insane to suggest that your bank could fail. My heart breaks for many of my fellow Americans who will never know what hit them.

Despite several and multiple warnings coming from both this publication and dozens of others that the crash of the U.S. economy could come at any time, some people continue to go through life as if nothing is wrong.

Logic means nothing to the sheep of America, proof means nothing to these people, even scripture from Revelations means nothing. It is as if some people go from website to website and leave their message of ignorant bliss that our economy is fine and we will never have anything to worry about and anyone who says different, is a fear-monger. By the way, the term "fear monger", just like the term, "conspiracy theorist", was created by the mainstream media, in order to marginalize any individual who has serious concerns about the elite and their intentions regarding the direction that the planet is headed.

More Fear Mongering Wrapped Within a Conspiracy Theory

Since the $19 trillion dollar debt, the $240 trillion dollar unfunded liabilities and the $1.5 quadrillion dollar derivatives debt, the all-time low ratings of the Baltic Dry Index, the massive amounts of food on the docks of several of our ports, the fact that the Trans Pacific Partnership is poised to seize control of both the US economy and the political process in America means nothing to the flocks of sheep in this country, perhaps there is a another number which will capture the attention of these people. The number is $80 trillion dollars.

The United States taxpayer is on the hook to JP Morgan and Bank of America for nearly $80 trillion dollars, apiece, in order to cover their share of the derivatives debt. Raise your hand if knew that. We must have a lot of broken arms in America this morning. Amazingly, very few have mentioned this in the three years that this "silent" bail-out has been in effect.

First of all, if you are one of the millions of customers of these banks, you need to realize that the entire GDP of the planet is under $70 trillion dollars and your bank owes more money to the originators of the Credit Swap Derivatives than the entire value of the planet, per mega bank! Take your time, I will wait right here as you rub your eyes and reread the previous passage… The facts are so indisputable, that even mainstream publications such as Bloomberghave previously reported on this reality and have been since 2011 when the Federal Reserve and the FDIC guaranteed the derivatives debt for JP Morgan and Bank of America for derivatives debt up to almost $80 trillion dollars each.

Even Robert Reich previously wrote an editorial piece expressing grave concern over the state of the derivatives debt, the U.S. mega banks and how the U.S. taxpayer is now on the hook to support the trillions of dollars of derivatives debt. The situation is so dire that Bank of America shifted its derivatives debt, previously located in its Merrill investment banking unit, to its banking depository arm, which magically was given access to the Fed discount window and is protected by the FDIC (i.e. that would be you).

Unmistakable Implications

In 2014, Bank of America had a little over one trillion dollars in deposits. The FDIC is guaranteeing the derivatives debt for this bank to the tune of almost $80 trillion dollars. And the entire GDP of the planet is less than the FDIC guarantee. This is a prescription for economic Armageddon.
Solely based upon the condition of the megabanks, it is a foregone conclusion that these bank customers are going to lose their assets. Since the U.S. only takes in $2 trillion dollars per year, where is the money going to come from to cover the derivatives debt? The interest on the derivatives debt is exploding faster than we can pay the interest on it. This one set of circumstances is enough, on its own, to collapse the U.S. economy. This could be the straw that breaks the camel's back. However, we have a lot of straws sitting upon the backs of the American camel.

The Wells Fargo 5300 and HSBC Bank continue to launder drug money for the cartels and the terrorists and the public is oblivious. How many of you knew that Wells Fargo was just fined $178 million for opening up money-laundering accounts. And of course, nobody went to jail. Was anyone paying attention.

1. The national debt.

2. The national deficit.

3. The stock market bubble.

4. The MERS mortgage fraud which has stolen an estimated 13 million homes.

5. The 1.5 quadrillion derivatives debt.

6. The record low Baltic Index which speaks to the health of the global economy.

7. Record consumer credit debt.

8. 5o million Americans on food stamps.

9. Shadow Stats which states that 23% of Americans are unemployed and underemployed

10. A weakened military as we sit upon the edge of World War III at a time when Obama is downsizing our military and firing its leadership base.

11. Increased foreign reliance of food imports (20% of the total).

12.Obama has given control over the Internet to ICANN

13. Food inflation which some estimate to be at about 18%.

14. The media is owned by six corporations who have helped to create this problem.

15. Christians and their religion are now under attack while other religions are being glorified in contrast

16. The oil bubble has burst.

17. The housing bubble has burst.

All hell is ready to break loose. I am absolutely convinced that it will be a cyber attack that will take down this economy. Yet, there is nothing wrong to the millions of sheep which are still enthralled with the mainstream media and their false doctrine based upon elite servitude.

Read More @ TheCommonSenseShow.com

The "Giant Rise in the Value of Gold" Theory of the 1930s 3: Supply and Demand

Posted: 25 Sep 2016 11:03 AM PDT

New World Economics

Ronan Manly: LBMA is little more than a front for the Bank of England's FX office

Posted: 25 Sep 2016 09:52 AM PDT

12:50p ET Sunday, September 25, 2016

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Gold researcher Ronan Manly today details how the London Bullion Market Association, the organization of major gold and silver bullion dealers, is almost entirely the creation and agent of the Bank of England's foreign exchange office, though the central bank's day-to-day operations with the association are kept secret. Since the central bank vaults most of the gold nominally owned by the bullion dealers and gold trading in London is largely a matter of changing book entries rather than moving gold around between vaults, the association looks even more like a front for the central bank. Manly's report is headlined "Blood Brothers: The Bank of England and the London Bullion Market Association" and it's posted at Bullion Star here:

https://www.bullionstar.com/blogs/ronan-manly/blood-brothers-the-bank-of...

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org



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K92 Mining Shows What 'Fast Track' Really Means

Company Announcement
By Kevin Silva
Market One Media, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada
via Business News Network, Toronto
September 18, 2016

"Fast-tracking" is an overused phrase in the mining sector. But K92 Mining Inc. (TSX.V: KNT) has demonstrated exactly what that concept means.

Less than four months after going public on May 25, the company has completed additional financings totaling $18.5 million. It also refurbished the mill and mine facilities with enhanced processing capacity and has two drills turning onsite. With all this accomplished, production looks to be just days away.

"The technical team on site has done an excellent job with the production restart, and we are on schedule and on budget," says Director and Chief Operating Officer John Lewins. "With that focus on track, and with the enhanced financial flexibility resulting from our recent financings, we are now looking to target a resource expansion that we believe exists."

K92 has under-promised and over-delivered. ...

... For the remainder of the announcement:

http://www.bnn.ca/k92-shows-what-fast-track-really-means-1.568196



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