Friday, July 8, 2016

Gold World News Flash

Gold World News Flash


The Number One Goal to Own Gold and Silver is NOT What You Think It Is

Posted: 08 Jul 2016 02:14 AM PDT

Gains Pains & Capital

Get Gold At $356 Per Oz By Buying Silver Today

Posted: 08 Jul 2016 01:00 AM PDT

from Hubert Moolman:

Gold is currently trading at around $1 370 an ounce. I like gold, but for me that is too expensive, even although I think it will increase significantly over the next couple of years.

Why do I think it is too expensive? Because I think there is a way of getting it at the equivalent of $345 an ounce, by buying silver instead.

In January 1980, silver and gold reached all-time high prices (at that time) of $50 and $850 respectively. Therefore, the Gold/Silver ratio at that time was about 17 (850/50).

Silver is currently trading at around $20.30 per ounce. This is about 40.6% (20.3/50) of its 1980 all-time high price. If, I was buying gold at 40.6% of its 1980 high, then I would pay about $345 (850×0.406).

So, if I buy $345 worth of silver [17 ounces (345/20.31)], and hold it until the Gold/Silver ratio reaches the 17-level again; I can exchange it for 1 ounce of gold. I would effectively have paid only $345 for 1 ounce of gold, which today cost $1370.

In my opinion, based on the historical relationship between gold and silver, it is almost guaranteed that the Gold/Silver ratio will again reach the 17- level. Therefore, I believe it is almost guaranteed that this strategy will work. The only question is, how long will it take? Especially since it only was that low more than 30 years ago.

The current state of the Gold/Silver ratio seems to suggest that I might not wait very long.

Below, is a 100-yr chart of the Gold/Silver ratio (from macrotrends.net):

Read More @ hubertmoolman.wordpress.com

Silver in the Anger Phase

Posted: 08 Jul 2016 12:00 AM PDT

The Party Is Over: Foreign Interest In US Real Estate Tumbles To 3 Year Lows

Posted: 08 Jul 2016 12:00 AM PDT

The housing market in key regions across the United States has been cooling, something that we have covered extensively, especially when it comes to New York, Miami, and California.

Any hopes that foreign buyers would continue to rush into the US tripping over themselves for an opportunity to park money in a "safe" real estate asset have been dashed according to a survey by the National Association of Realtors released Wednesday.

Purchases of US residential real estate by foreigners fell 1.3% y/y from $103.9bn in 2015 to $102.6bn in 2016 (year ended March 2016). As shown below, the main buyer by dollar volume was China, contributing nearly 27% of the total.

Breaking down the data further, purchases by foreigners who aren't residents of the US fell by $10bn y/y to $44bn, the lowest level since 2013.

Even as foreign buyers continued to pay huge premiums, the average purchase price paid by foreign buyers declined substantially y/y as well.

As the WSJ notes, even as foreign buyers make up a small part of the market overall, luxury residential builders in Miami, Manhattan, and parts of California could take a hit if (and when) this trend continues.

Here are the main destinations of foreign real estate purchases:

We have focused quite a bit on China's capital outflows, and it comes as no surprise that the markets we discussed are where the NAR shows China buying, specifically California.

Another interesting point along those lines, is the fact that Chinese buyers pay predominantly in cash - interestingly, so does Canada.

* * *

All of this reiterates what we have been documenting for quite some time now, namely that China capital outflow continues to be directed to the US real estate market, and that the overall trend of foreign buyers purchasing in the US is slowing, thus pulling the rug out from underneath those soaring real estate prices in major markets. The pain will continue as the funds slow, and the supply glut becomes even more of a factor as a result.

A Frexit would be the Final Nail in the EU’s Coffin

Posted: 07 Jul 2016 11:30 PM PDT

by Steven MacMillan, New Eastern Outlook:

The European continent has been rocked by one of the largest political earthquakes in recent years, after the British people made the historic decision to leave the European Union (EU). The arrogant, corrupt establishment was so convinced that their concerted propaganda campaign to keep Britain in the EU would prevail over EU detractors, that they clearly were shocked by the Brexit vote.

A personal highlight over the past few weeks has been watching the plethora of EU zealots and puppets of the globalist cabal whining, sulking and generally throwing their dummies out of their prams in response to the democratic wishes of the people. Remember, the Western establishment is only a cheerleader of democracy when it serves their interests, not when it challenges them.

But what is the significance of the Brexit vote for the future of the EU? Long plagued by problems and perpetual crises, the fabric that holds the undemocratic and technocratic EU together is close to being set ablaze. Will the Brexit vote be the final spark that triggers the entire collapse of the EU, or is another event needed to finally ignite the European project that the globalists hold so dearly? I would tend to favour the latter over the former, as the response by the EU elites has been to push for further integration and the creation of an EU superstate.

Let the People Vote!

One of the most tectonic implications of the historic vote is how it has worked to energize calls from numerous other EU countries to hold in-out referendums. From the Netherlands to Italy, political organizations opposed to the EU have been emboldened by this vote. But the country that has the greatest potential to put the final nail in the coffin of the EU is France.

Marine Le Pen, the leader of the Front National, has been agitating for an in-out referendum on EU membership for years now, and has said that if she wins the presidential election in April next year, she will call an in-out referendum. In the aftermath of the Brexit vote, Le Pen ramped up her calls for a vote, however the French President Francois Hollande recently rejected such calls. According to research conducted by the University of Edinburgh in March of this year, 53 percent of people in France would be in favour of holding a referendum on EU membership.

Although the Brexit vote was an important one, it should be kept within historical context and not overstated. Britain has had a complex relationship with Europe for hundreds of years, and prior to the First World War and the threat to the balance of power in Europe that arose in the early 20th century; British strategists were for large periods more focused on expanding the influence of the British Empire internationally, than on European affairs. As an island, geographically split from mainland Europe by the English Channel, Britain has also often seen itself as having one foot in and one foot outside of Europe.

These realities contributed to the rather late admission of the UK to the union, not becoming an EU member until 1973. A more pivotal vote would be if one of the founding members of the EU voted to leave, with Belgium, France, West Germany, Italy, Luxembourg and the Netherlands, comprising the six founding countries of the European Coal and Steel Community in 1952.

The Brexit spirit seems strongest in the Netherlands and France; with France's size, strength and instrumental position in creating the EU meaning its voice would have the greatest impact. If the French people vote to leave the EU in a potential future referendum, there is no way the Western elite can prop up their treasured European project anymore.

Read More @ Journal-NEO.org

Gold and Silver Race Toward 2-Year Highs – How High?

Posted: 07 Jul 2016 11:01 PM PDT

Guest post from  James Cordelaine Silver's Going Crazy Too Everyone knew gold would skyrocket in the aftermath of Brexit. As much as sophisticated investors and TV talking heads love to either ignore...

{This is a content summary only. Click on the blog title to continue reading this post, share your comments, browse the website, and more!}

Lagarde Flip-Flops Again On Brexit, Warns Of "Disastrous" Trump-Style Protectionism

Posted: 07 Jul 2016 11:00 PM PDT

Submitted by Michael Shedlock via MishTalk.com,

Ahead of the vote on Brexit, IMF head Christine Lagarde warned of a prolonged period of uncertainty.

After the vote, Largarde said Brexit provided the EU a better opportunity for reform.

Today Largarde is certain of disastrous consequences if another large county turns protectionist. In doing so, she pointed her finger at Donald Trump.

Lagarde's Changing Tune on Brexit

Lagarde Points Finger at Trump

Please consider Lagarde Warns Trump-Style Protectionism Would Hit World Economy.

Britain’s vote to leave the EU is already casting a shadow over international growth, the International Monetary Fund chief said in an interview, adding that the imposition of new trade barriers in another large economy could have ruinous effects.

 

“I think it would be quite disastrous, actually. Well I don’t think I should say disastrous because that is an excessive word and I should refrain from excessive words. But it would certainly have a negative impact on global growth,” she told the Financial Times.

 

[Mish Comment: So is it quite disastrous or simply negative? Her meaning is uncertain]

 

Any uncertainty surrounding a Trump presidency would probably yield more instability in financial markets, similar to the upheaval in the wake of last month’s UK referendum, she said in response to a question. But the IMF chief took care to avoid singling out any politician or referring to Mr Trump by name.

 

[Mish comment: Lagarde took care to avoid singling out Trump, while singling out Trump]

 

Ms Lagarde said “waves of protectionism” in the past had “preceded many wars” and that protectionism “hurts growth, hurts inclusion and hurts people”.

 

Ms Lagarde said she did not want to get involved in the political debate in the US, the IMF’s biggest shareholder. But she made clear her dim view of the policies of Mr Trump, who has proposed punitive tariffs on goods from China and Mexico and ripping up US trade pacts such as the North American Free Trade Agreement.

 

[Mish comment: Lagarde does not want to get into the political debate in the US, but hands Hillary campaign talking points on a silver platter]

 

The IMF’s assessment of the impact of the Brexit vote on the UK economy depends heavily on what sort of trade relationship with the EU a new government would be able to negotiate, she said.

 

Should a deal preserve access to the single market — such as Norway now enjoys — then the UK economy would be only 1.5 per cent smaller by 2019 than would be the case if Britain remained part of the EU. Were a deal to lead to the UK’s access to the EU’s 27 other economies being subject to tariffs under World Trade Organisation rules, it would cost the UK 4.5 per cent growth.

 

The IMF had not modelled the economic impact of a scenario in which the UK’s exit from the EU drags on and uncertainty continues for a year or more, Ms Lagarde said, but the political crisis set off by the vote could make such events likely.

 

[Mish comment: The IMF warned of a prolonged period of uncertainty but did not model the result even though the “political crisis set off by the vote could make such events likely”. How likely? The following paragraph provides the answer]

 

“Do we have a forecast and scenario with prolonged uncertainty, total lack of clarity, no triggering of Article 50 [the official notification required to leave the EU], things staying in limbo for a long period of time? No. We don’t have that. We doubt that it would be sustainable politically, geopolitically,” she said.

 

[Mish comment: Prolonged uncertainty is both likely and unlikely]

 

For the July 19 update of the IMF’s World Economic Outlook, Ms Lagarde said the organisation was looking at presenting a variety of possible scenarios for the global economy depending on the outcome of Brexit discussions — a departure from its usual format.

 

[Mish comment: I can hardly wait. Until then, the uncertainty is nearly killing me]

Waves of Protectionism

If Lagarde wanted to make a positive contribution she should have embraced free trade, totally and completely.

She is correct on one thing. And it’s a very big thing: “Waves of protectionism in the past had preceded many wars. Protectionism hurts growth, hurts inclusion and hurts people“.

The solution is so simple it’s beyond Lagarde’s comprehension.

The EU, US, and Asia ought to work out a genuine free trade agreement not a mind-numbing set of rules and regulations that encompass the EU, nor secret agreements like Obama’s proposed Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP) that has little to do with free trade.

A genuine free trade agreement would consist of a single statement: “Effective immediately, all tariffs and subsidies, on all goods and services, are removed.”

For more on TPP, Tariffs, the WTO, and free trade, please see …

Lagarde finally issued a statement on trade that made sense. But it was buried in a series of flip-flops and conflicting ideas that makes it clear she really does not understand what free trade means.

Nonetheless, her warning about trade is correct. A global trade war could indeed have disastrous consequences. And it’s not just Trump who could start one.

Clinton, Trump and Sanders have all made similar statements on trade. For details, please see Today’s Quiz: Donald Trump, Bernie Sanders, Hillary Clinton – Who Said It?.

SILVER JUST TOOK OUT $20: “We are at a flashpoint in history” — Andy Hoffman

Posted: 07 Jul 2016 10:15 PM PDT

by SGT, SGT Report.com:

Silver just took out $20 in Sunday night Globex trading, but that’s not all, silver briefly pierced $21 Sunday night before settling back to the mid $20’s. Andy Hoffman from Miles Franklin joins me for a Sunday update and warns, “We are at a flashpoint in history… there is literally a tiny, tiny window left for people to protect themselves before all hell breaks loose.”

Venezuelans Swarm Past Border In Search of Food: “We Crossed Because Our Children Are Hungry”

Posted: 07 Jul 2016 09:40 PM PDT

by Mac Slavo, SHTF Plan:

Venezuela is reaching the point of total desperation.

Women are now pouring over the Colombian border in effort to get their hands on groceries, trading on the black market and doing anything to survive.

That suggests other means of coping in the economically besieged capital of Caracas are wearing thin, and the difficulties of managing ordinary life under food shortages and long ration lines are forcing people to turn to alternative means of combating hunger.

According to the Miami Herald:

Dozens of Venezuelan women broke through a barricade along the Venezuelan-Colombian border on Tuesday with one goal in mind: finding food.

Local media in the Colombian border town of Cúcuta, estimated that more than 100 people — mostly women — defied Venezuela's border patrol and swarmed the frontier to do their shopping.

Inflation and falling oil prices have led to dramatic food shortages in Venezuela, and the border state of Táchira has been particularly hard-hit. In recent weeks, there have been widespread reports of looting and food riots.

"We decided to cross the border because there's no food in our homes and our children are hungry," one unnamed woman told Cúcuta's La Opinion newspaper.

[…]

Venezuela unilaterally shut down its 1,274-mile border with Colombia beginning in August of last year, saying that its subsidized goods were being smuggled out.

The women were defiant and easily overwhelmed the border agents in an act of bold desperation that created quite a scene on video:

This has become a full blown humanitarian crisis.

The ongoing struggle between socialist President Maduro and the U.S.-friendly opposition are dragging society down with it into the lowest places, to the disgrace of their tactics.

Starving the people of Venezuela will prove – apparently – how much power can be taken away from a despotic regime floating on the price of oil.

The meltdown draws from the circumstances of textbook despotism under crumbling power, but the very real struggle that millions of people face there just for enough food to eat is a true injustice. They have been brought to their knees, and should be supported in escape their political situation as soon as possible.

With a shortage of food, many have already turned to looting, violence and theft, while others recoil under the horrors of bureaucratic hell waiting in long lines for food that may or may not be there.

Until very recently, Venezuela was a civilized place, and that's how quickly things can come unglued.

Read More @ SHTFPlan.com

Chinese Gold Demand 973t In H1 2016, Nomura SGE Withdrawals Chart False

Posted: 07 Jul 2016 09:20 PM PDT

by Koos Jansen, BullionStar:

Although Chinese gold demand year to date at 973 tonnes is slightly down from its record year in 2015 – when China in total net imported over 1,550 tonnes and an astonishing 2,596 tonnes were withdrawn from SGE designated vaults – appetite from the mainland is still the greatest of all single nations worldwide. At the same time the mainstream consultancy firms (World Gold Council, GFMS, Metals Focus) continue portraying Chinese gold demand to be roughly half of SGE withdrawals, as these firms measure "gold demand" merely at retail level which excludes any direct purchases at the SGE by institutional and individual investors. But to reassure you, Chinese wholesale gold demand still equals SGE withdrawals.

In the month of June (2016) SGE withdrawals accounted for a robust 139 tonnes, although this was down 29 % from June last year. The reason being for "somewhat subdued" Chinese gold demand in recent months is that the price of gold has risen strongly over this time horizon and the Chinese tend to buy gold when its price goes down, in contrast to Western investors that buy gold when the price goes up. From 1 June until 30 June 2016 the price of gold in US dollars jumped by 9 % from $1,214.70 to $1,325.76. Over the first six months of 2016 the price of gold exploded by 25 % (from $1,061.5 on 1 January 2016). So, since January this year when the price of gold started to rise, the Chinese actually stepped down their gold purchases while Western demand, which can be roughly measured by the net flow in/out of the UK, went up impressively.

Let us have a look at a few charts to come to grips with what's going on in the Chinese (and international) gold market. Below, we can see a chart showing monthly SGE withdrawals plotted against the end of month price of gold in yuan per gram. In recent years, whenever the price of gold goes down the Chinese step up their purchases (buying the physical supply coming from the West) and whenever the price of gold goes up the Chinese slow their purchases.

Since January 2016 when the gold price started rising, SGE withdrawals started declining. Note, for spotting trends, gold bought at the SGE does not have to be withdrawn immediately.

By looking at a weekly SGE withdrawals chart (from before January 2016) we can see the trend just described – "the Chinese tend to buy more gold when the price goes down" – in a more granular fashion. Have a look below.

In contrast to Chinese gold buying behaviour, let us have a look at gold demand from the West. Our proxy for Western demand is the net flow in/out of the UK where the London Bullion Market (LBMA) and the world's largest ETF's such as GLD store physical gold. At the beginning of 2016 (when the price of gold started to rise) the direction of the flow has reversed sharply, from the UK being a net exporter to being a net importer.

Read More @ BullionStar.com

Blood in the Streets Metals Buying – Pierce Carson on Gold Mining

Posted: 07 Jul 2016 09:15 PM PDT

What Are You Going To Do About It?

Posted: 07 Jul 2016 08:00 PM PDT

Authored by StraightLineLogic's Robert Gore via The Burning Platform blog,

Even small children recognize injustice, especially when they are its victims. “No fair” is the common schoolyard refrain. A sense of justice undoubtedly serves a host of evolutionary purposes. Imagine a world where the unjust, the wrong, always triumphed. Thieves prospered as crime went unpunished, the few stalwarts hewing to honesty and rectitude were marginalized or eliminated, and this social order evoked commendation rather than condemnation. How long would such a society survive? Cynics will say we are there now. That’s overblown, but they have a point.

A desire for political change that becomes an actual movement drip-feeds on perceived injustices. No political movement of consequence fails either to wrap its objectives in the mantle of justice or portray its opponents as evil. The Declaration of Independence is a transcendently important work of political philosophy, but it’s also a laundry list of grievances against King George. The aggrieved, not the political theorists, propel revolutions. The straw that breaks the camel’s back is often relatively minor, even trivial. However, it generally has disproportionate symbolic importance. The tea tax exacted on the colonists was a pittance, but it inspired the Boston Tea Party and the revolutionaries’ “No taxation without representation” slogan.

Eric Hoffer noted that: “What starts out here as a mass movement ends up as a racket, a cult, or a corporation” (The Temper of Our Time, 1967). The government birthed after the revolution has indeed degenerated into a racket, and those not in on it increasing recognize its injustices. It still tries to wrap its objectives in the mantle of justice, but the sole objective of government has become more government.

When the American welfare state got started during the Depression, it was sold as a humanitarian response to that crisis. That sentiment may have animated some of those who paid for the New Deal back then; those who pay now know they’re getting fleeced. The government is a giant redistributive mechanism (with a substantial portion redistributed to the government), and most of those on the receiving end are not “needy.” They are, however, desirable sources of votes and payola.

Between the low-class grifts of phony disability and unemployment and the high-class swindles of government contracting, labor racketeering, influence peddling, subsidies, tax breaks, regulatory machinations, spurious litigation, and all the other ways the denizens of America’s richest metropolitan area line their and their cronies’ pockets, those stout souls who still engage in honest and productive labor know they’re being robbed blind. Beneath the shrugs and resignation, fires of anger burn, and cauldrons of resentment bubble.

Fires and cauldrons dot the landscape. Nobody has forgotten who got bailed out in the last financial crisis—banks, other large financial institutions, and a couple of car companies—and who didn’t—millions of homeowners with underwater homes and foreclosed mortgages. It requires no great perspicacity to recognize who has benefitted from central bank policies since the crisis—leveraged speculators—and who has not—everybody else, with particular harm suffered by savers and those living on fixed incomes. Burn and bubble.

We’re all supposed to be blind to race, gender, ethnicity, sexual preference, and every other characteristic held to be irrelevant to human worth, except when it comes to government contracting, employment, and admission to institutions of learning. Might that rile those excluded because they didn’t have the right set of irrelevant characteristics? Proponents of such exclusion are invited to make their case directly to the excluded, and are advised to be careful when they do so. Victims don’t like being told they’re being screwed for the greater good.

That would include the victims of Obamacare, who have seen their medical and insurance choices shrink as their premiums and deductibles rise. Trite homilies that they are helping fund insurance and care for those who previously had none do nothing to assuage their anger, and undoubtedly increase it. Access to quality medical care is a significant concern for the nation’s aging population, and the law’s destructive absurdity, blessed by tortured Supreme Court rationalizations, is now obvious. As the quality of the US medical system deteriorates, people will suffer needlessly, or die when they should have lived. Victims and their survivors will be understandably perturbed.

Justice and equality are inseparable. Equality here does not mean the fatuous and impossible equality of outcomes that animates collectivists, but equality before the law. Equality of outcomes in all its collectivist guises obliterates equality before the law, the foundation of which is the concept of individual rights. For that concept to have any meaning, each individual must have the same rights, which receive the same protection from the government. Individual, equal rights must be the basis of the law, and when they are not, no justice is possible.

Law instead becomes a tool wielded by those who control the government against everyone else. This week’s announcement by FBI Director James Comey that the FBI would recommend against charging Hillary Clinton in the email matter is the government wielding the law to protect its own. The fix has been in since at least 1913, when it gave itself permission to steal its constituents’ money (the income tax) and to begin the process of profitably substituting its scrip for gold (the Federal Reserve Act). The Clinton fix is business as usual. The exempt-from-the-law class expect outrage and contemptuously ignore it. Indeed, disclosure of the Loretta Lynch-Bill Clinton meeting may have been designed to rub the noses of the not-exempt in it. Yes, it looks terrible, but we run things, you don’t. You don’t like it? Tough shit, what are you going to do about it?

The not-exempt are left with the thin gruel of cynicism and the even thinner gruel of resignation. Are we without recourse? There are those burning fires and boiling cauldrons, fueled by Mt. Saint Helens’ magma-builds of righteous rage. Comey’s decision notches up the temperature. As important, there are the manifest weaknesses of the exempt, not the least of which is their arrogance and inability to even recognize, much less acknowledge, them. A not exhaustive list: debt; their anachronistic command and control philosophy; an imperial, costly, stupidly counterproductive, and unsustainable foreign policy; an economy held together by central bank baling wire and illusion; a hollowed-out industrial base; stagnant incomes; a bought off class of savages that must stay bought off to forestall chaos; immigration; terrorism, and cities on the verge of financial collapse.

King George and cohorts enacted the tea tax with the same insouciance with which the exempt have once again exempted Hillary. They had no idea they were lighting the fuse of revolution. What are we the outraged, the disgusted, the cynical, and yes, even the resigned, to do about this latest depredation? That last, one-too-many evil of the exempt turns ordinary citizens into nothing-to-lose revolutionaries. Don’t say it can’t happen; it has happened, repeatedly throughout history. Power’s inevitable corruption, oppression, and the best of humanity’s refusal to live their lives in chains has extinguished, against daunting odds, many an evil regime… and will continue to do so. Revolutions require revolutionaries. It would be altogether fitting and proper if this travesty—announced one day after Independence Day—was the tea tax to a Boston Harbor-style rebuke of the Clintons and their criminal class come November, and served as a rallying cry for a revolt that doesn’t end until the entire lot of them are overthrown.

What To Expect From Tomorrow's Jobs Report And One Troubling Chart

Posted: 07 Jul 2016 07:27 PM PDT

Remember all those hyperbolic warnings over the years that "this is the most important jobs report" ever? Well, the one due out tomorrow may not be that, but it certainly is one of the most important ones in the past year, and one that will certainly have an impact if not on the Fed's future actions then certainly on the market's (once again erroneous) expectations of what Yellen may do, especially if it is a +/- 60,000 outlier from the consensus estimate of 180,000.

Recall last month's "shocking" jobs print, when only 35,000 new jobs were created, the lowest number since September 2010?

Well, that one print was sufficient to convince the market there would be no more rate hikes in 2016 and most of 2017. A few weeks later, first the capitulatory June Yellen press conference and shortly after the just as "shocking" Brexit, effectively killed the rate hike cycle, with the market now pricing in one full rate hike (that is 0.25bps) all the way in 2018. As LIesman raged, "The Fed Is As Close To Capitulation As I've Ever Seen Them."

But maybe there is some hope still. If so, it will be revealed in tomorrow's payrolls report. As Bloomberg says, "the June jobs report will take on even more importance than usual. Economists and policy makers will use it to determine whether the strongest part of the economy slowed sharply even before concerns over global growth intensified, or if the labor market was merely hit by a temporary soft patch." Ignoring that jobs are among the most lagging economic indicators known, the general (confused) consensus about what payrolls indicate suggests an outsized market response may be forthcoming.

"There is a potential for a big reassessment on Friday for the outlook," said Jim O'Sullivan, chief U.S. economist at High Frequency Economics Ltd. in Valhalla, New York. "Given how much views changed after the last report, I get the sense that the anticipation level going into this one is unusually high."

Wall Street consensus expects 180,000 jobs to be added in June following the abysmal 35,000 in May. One benefit will come from the return to work of striking employees at Verizon. 35,100 Verizon employees ended their almost seven-week work stoppage on May 31. Once the strikers are factored out, "that does imply some net slowing of the trend," O'Sullivan said. Still, that rate of hiring "remains more than strong enough to keep the unemployment rate trending down."

Another "good" datapoint will be unemployment rate, expected to rise to 4.8% after falling to a more than eight-year low of 4.7% in May. This however was due to an exodus of workers from the labor force, as the participation rate resumed its plunge.

Earnings will also be closedly watched, with average hourly earnings expected to rise 0.2% in June from the month before and 2.7% Y/Y. However, if that again comes at the expense of yet another decline in hours worked it will be a clear stagflationary sign for the economy. Furthermore, since the wage number weakened in June 2015, a bigger bounce this year may be expected due to a base effect. Looking past that, there still seems to be a nascent acceleration in pay, said Ethan Harris, head of global economics research at BofA.

There is also the strawman of the Brexit effect. Bloomberg paints it as follows: "Brexit complicates things. With U.S. economic data now being pored over for signs of weakness, there's extra downside risk associated with a bad payrolls number -- anything under 100,000, Harris said. Unfortunately, the report will offer little clarity on how employers reacted to the U.K.'s decision to leave the EU. With the referendum held June 23, any immediate impact to U.S. employment may have been limited, even as investors grew concerned that the global economy's growth prospects have dimmed."

All of this is bunk, as Brexit will have had zero impact on US hiring (and firing) intentions for US corporations in the middle of last month, when the widely accepted probability of an actual Brexit outcome was virtually nil. Indeed, as the latest ISM surveys showed, producers expected a 'negligible' impact on their business due to Brexit and signaled they would probably not pare headcounts as a result of the vote.

And speaking of ISMs, except for the non-manufacturing ISM report, all of the service sector employment surveys declined or were unchanged in June, including the Markit PMI (-0.1 to 52.4), the New York Fed's Business Leaders survey (-0.2 to +2.0, after our seasonal adjustment), the Dallas Fed services survey (-2.5 to +2.0), and the Richmond Fed services survey (unchanged at +18.0). Today's collapse in manufacturing jobs per the ADP report was the worst since 2010.

Then again, and it goes without saying, when one cuts through the chase, the only thing that will matter is what instructions the guy who mans the BLS' goalseek function is given.

* * *

What to expect from the market reaction? Here is a handy breakdown from one of the few voices on Wall Street we respect, BofA's Michael Harnett:

  • Payroll risk is strong payroll (>225k) which causes relative outperformance of banks at the expense of bonds & quality stocks; strong US labor market & consumer data (note that US mortgage refi activity has been slowly creeping higher) that raises Fed hike expectations from the dead would lead to a short-term unwind of some very extended pair-trades across the world.
  • In contrast, a weak payroll (<125k) removes "terra firma" of US expansion, would in absolute terms be best for gold & volatility, and would ultimately cause further barbell outperformance.

* * *

But perhaps the best indicator of what may be really coming tomorrow is the following chart showing the complete collapse in online help wanted ads: as shown below, the Conference Board's Help Wanted Online (HWOL) report showed another sharp drop in job posting in June, with the index now down 16% from its highs late last year.

 

On its face, this chart would suggest a collapse in payrolls, incidentally something that we have seen in recent months. But fear not: the intrepid economists at the Federal Reserve who are always and everywhere able, willing and ready to explain away any negative data point, already have a ready explanation - the collapse in online help wanted ads is due to... rising prices for Craigslist ads.

About 60 percent of online advertised vacancies are posted on only five of the largest job boards (?ahin et al., 2014). One of these five boards is Craigslist, which has used a particular business strategy in order to dominate the market for online vacancies. In particular, while its competitors like CareerBuilder or Monster typically charge $250-$500 for a 1-2 month job ad, Craigslist initially entered all geographical markets by allowing employers to advertise job postings for free. As a result, Craigslist "rose from near obscurity in 2005 to become a major contender, if not the leader, in online job posts by 2007" (Kroft and Pope, 2014). However, over time Craigslist gradually moved away from the model of free online vacancies and began charging $25 for a job ad in many metropolitan areas (Table 1). Moreover, at the end of 2015 Craigslist raised fees from $25 to $35 or $45 in selected metropolitan areas. All told, the average price for Craigslist job ads rose substantially, and roughly doubled since the end of 2012 (Figure 2), coinciding with the period when online vacancy posting as measured by HWOL noticeably underperformed the JOLTS vacancy growth.

 

In this note, we suggest that interpreting the measure of job vacancies from HWOL data requires careful consideration of changes in the quickly-evolving market for online job postings. We have analyzed one such change--rising prices for Craigslist job postings--which explains an important part of the recent divergence between JOLTS and HWOL vacancies. Our finding is reminiscent of similar concerns about the now obsolete Help Wanted Advertising Index of print ads, which was affected by changes in advertising practices and changes in competition within the newspaper industry (Abraham, 1987). Given the critical nature of HWOL data in tracking the health of the US labor market, we believe the adjustments proposed here are a step towards improving analysts' ability to interpret these data and can lead to a fuller understanding of labor market developments in real time.

In short, if tomorrow's jobs report is another epic disaster, we expect that the following blog post on the federal reserve website will mysteriously disappear. On the other hand, if June payrolls soar by 200,000 or more, well, just blame the greedy capitalists at Craigslist.

Shocking Breakdown of Chinas Foreign Reserves is Bullish for Gold

Posted: 07 Jul 2016 07:22 PM PDT

goldmau

What's Starting Now Will Overturn The Entire System: "Complete Collapse of Everything"

Posted: 07 Jul 2016 06:30 PM PDT

Submitted by Mac Slavo via SHTFPlan.com,

 

“There’s too much of everything…” The debt, the currency collapse, the global economy, and the institutions we’ve all taken for granted.

All of it is head for prolonged collapse, and revolution.

economic-collapse-consequence

Michael Krieger of Liberty Blitzkrieg warns about the immense scale of the problems that have been triggered by the Brexit – and could lead to the complete disintegration of the European Union.

The status quo is being disrupted, and a major, major event is coming. This one may well be big enough to wipe everyone out, that is those who aren’t able to duck out and survive.

As Michael Krieger tells Greg Hunter at USA Watchdog:

Former Wall Street analyst and journalist Michael Krieger contends the recent so-called “Brexit” chaos is signaling something much bigger than coming economic trouble. Krieger explains, “I think the biggest thing with Brexit, and I think it is far bigger than an economic downturn, is the disintegration and ultimately the overthrow of the entire status quo regime, the entire post WWII establishment. That’s way bigger than an economic decline. It’s way bigger than the economic decline in 2008 and 2009. When you think about it, since 1945, we’ve had all kinds of economic declines. We’ve had bear markets and bull markets, but the status quo, the establishment, the basic principles that have been guiding the world for, let’s say 80 years now, those are what are going to be overthrown, and that is a way bigger deal than an economic downturn, in my opinion.”

 

On the odds of a financial crash, Krieger contends, “In my writings, when I first came out of Wall Street, I focused on debt, I focused on economics and I focused on financial markets. I did all of that stuff, but I stopped doing that for one simple reason.

 

It was obvious to me . . . that this thing had only one way to go, which is a complete collapse of everything. We’re going to need to start over. There’s too much debt. There’s too much corruption. There’s too much BS. There’s too much war. There’s too much everything that is bad in this world, and debt is one aspect of it. Are we going to have to wipe out the debts one way or the other? Of course, we will. I guess the reason I have stopped talking about that and writing about that is because it is so obvious. So, what I have been doing over the last three years is getting people aware and engaged on everything, not just the economics, but the political corruption. Every single industry in this world is basically hitting peak corruption, peak shadiness, peak violence and peak everything. So, it’s not just the debt or the economies that are going to collapse, it’s everything, the political establishment and the social fabric. All of these things we have been living under our entire lives will be replaced by something else. . . . The only question is, are we going to get something better or are we going to get something worse?”

Things have reached fever pitch, and the populists are fed up with the system, and ready to revolt. Technology has changed all the arrangements, and literally everything, not only in economics, but in politics, and throughout society, is about to change in a transformative way.

The Number One Goal to Own Gold and Silver is NOT What You Think It Is

Posted: 07 Jul 2016 06:22 PM PDT

The number one reason to buy physical gold and physical silver (not paper gold and paper silver, which is not the same thing) is very likely not what you think it is. I can deduce the number one reason why most people buy gold and silver simply from the disproprotionate amount of questions I receive about buying gold and silver whenever gold and silver prices are rising significantly versus when gold and silver prices are falling. In other words, most people believe that that top reason they should buy gold and silver is to profit from rising prices. However, this is far from the best reason to buy physical gold and physical silver. The number one reason to buy physical gold and silver, bar none, is the global currency rot that is happening today, that is relentless, and that Central Bankers are now helpless to stop (though they are responsible for creating it). Of course, some may say that benefiting from rising fiat currency prices of gold and silver is the same reason as protecting onself against currency rot, but in reality, these two reasons for buying gold and silver are as different as night and day, and here's why. Of those that want to benefit from rising fiat currency prices of gold and silver, the vast majority are looking for a quick score, and they buy gold and silver for this reason without even taking the time to truly understand the value of gold and silver. Those seeking a quick profit from ownership of gold and silver typically fail to understand that:

(1) the true value of gold and silver is immutable and defined by its weight in grams or troy ounces;

(2) that gold and silver should never even be priced in terms of illegitimate fiat currencies; and

(3) during periods of time when fiat currency prices of gold and silver drop, a dropping fiat currency price is only indicative of an incredible opportunity to buy similar values (weights) of gold and silver while spending less fiat currencies to do so.

As an example of this incorrect mindset, a the end of this past May, I informed a couple of friends that gold was making a short-term low at about $1200 and silver was doing likewise at $16. Because both PMs have risen considerably in fiat currency prices since then, one of these friends incredulously asked me at the start of this week if he should sell his gold and silver because both PMs had moved significantly higher in such a short time-span. In hearing this inquiry, I realized that he didn't understand the number one reason to buy physical gold and physical silver in the first place - the protection it affords all of us against Central Banker-induced global currency rot.

 

Everywhere you look, there are stories from every continent in the world regarding currency collapse and the hundreds of millions of lives ruined by Central Banker-created currency rot. Of course, you will never hear of this critical global issue promoted by the  banker-bought-and-paid-for mainstream media even though these unfolding tragedies should be front and center on page 1 as these are critical stories of which everyone should be aware. And because these stories are largely ignored by the banker-bought-and-paid-for mainstream financial media, this is the number one reason most people are shockingly unaware of the global currency rot that is happening right now. Fortunately, with a tiny bit of effort and just a little bit of research online, one can easily track down and uncover these stories.

 

If you haven't been asleep for the last five years, if one knows nothing else about this super important story of global currency rot,  the main story of currency rot everyone knows about is the rapid collapse of the Russian ruble from about mid-2014 to the end of 2015. Since then, the ruble has recovered slightly, but not enought to save anyone that stored large amounts of their wealth in rubles during this time period. Many times, people make the mistake of thinking that because their domestic currency has only devalued slightly up until now, that there will always be time to exit the currency and move to a sound currency like physical gold and physical silver. Thus, they endlessly delay executing strategies they know they should have executed at least a year ago, due to this "slow burn" that can be quite deceptive. For example, from early 2012 to the end of 2013, over 2 years, the Russian ruble lost 3% of valuation against the US dollar, a "slow burn" that tricked many Russians into remaining complacent about their faith in an unsound fiat currency. And in the first 7 months of 2014, the ruble lost another 3%. Again, many Russians were unhappy with the devaluation of the ruble, but they felt as though they could live with such devaluation and would take action if it became necessary, thinking they could front-run the event, even though warning after warning and red flag after red flag in the form of ongoing devaluations had already occurred that should have prompted every ruble-owning Russian to convert their fiat currencies into the sound money of physical gold that was far more stable. Then, while most Russians were still ignoring all the previous warning signs from July to the end of the year in 2014, the ruble fell off a cliff and collapsed, rapidly lost a massive 50% in purchasing power, and unfortunately, for the procrastinators,  rapidly destroyed their savings in the process. In other words, by the time the "event" happened for which Russians were waiting to trigger action, it was already too late to act. What about those that converted rubles to gold in mid-2013 because they had the foresight to plan for the time in which Central Bankers would ruin the ruble fiat currency? From mid-2013 to present day, their gold, priced in rubles, has risen by about 120%, more than enough to preserve their purchasing power in their home country and more than enough to help them avoid the fate of most of their fellow countrymen that lost much of their life savings in a very short period of time.

 

Though there are literally dozens more examples I can provide that are comparable to the story above and I will provide one more example in this article of a failing emerging market fiat currency, people that live in industrialized nations tend to believe that there domestic currencies are "safe" because they fail to understand that Central Bankers are ruining currencies in every single country in the world today. They make a huge mistake of thinking "I don't live in an emerging market, and that problem in Russia is an emerging market and third world country problem that will never happen in my country." They further mistakenly believe, "A 50% devaluation of my fiat currency in 6 months can never happen. That is a problem of emerging markets and not industrialized, 'modern' markets." Thus, they mistakenly conclude, with great confidence, that the process of fiat currency devaluation in their country will be much less volatile, and therefore provide them with much more time to react to the problem when it develops.  In other words, they believe that there is no need to plan because they can just react to warning signs in the future without realizing that multiple red flags and warning signs are already here. The free fall in purchasing power of the Ukranian hyrvnia, the Russian ruble, the Venezuelan bolivar and the very significant 20% to 30% devaluations of fiat currencies in several industrialized nations and dozens of other emerging markets ARE the red flags for which residents of industrialized countries are waiting, but have failed to identify.

 

Let's use Canada as an example to make my point. No one ever thinks of Canada as anything but a modern, industrialized nation that would not suffer the same fiat currency problems as an emerging market country, and indeed, if you are not Canadian, you may be entirely unaware of the real and very significant struggles that have afflicted the Canadian dollar, or looney, in recent years. Like the Russian ruble, for the past two years, the Canadian dollar suffered some fairly significant swings in value against the US dollar but nothing that concerned most Canadians, though these swings should have been massive red flags to all Canadians of the already unstable nature of the looney. In 2011, the Canadian dollar swung 5% higher and nearly 7% lower from its starting point against the USD during the year but by year's end was nearly unchanged, so most Canadians did not believe there was any need to diversify out of the Canadian dollar into a sound form of money like physical gold. The following year in 2012, during the course of the year, more red flags materialized as the volatility of 2011 continued, but again, the year closed with the Canadian dollar nearly unchanged against the USD, so most Canadians continued to ignore the massive red flag of currency volatility and instability, falsely believing that they still had time to respond reactively, instead of proactively, to the unstable Canadian dollar. However, as was the case with the Russian ruble, the fall came quick and hard for the Canadian dollar and in just 2-1/2 years, from mid-2013 to the end of 2015, the Canadian dollar plunged by more than 30% against the USD. Again, for those the Canadians that understood that Central Bankers are destroying fiat currency valuations in ALL countries and consequently moved out of the Canadian dollar intogold before this significant currency rot, their gold appreciated significantly in Canadian dollars over this same time period, helping to preserve one's purchasing power, versus the substantial losses in purchasing power one suffered if one had just held devaluing Canadian dollars. If one needs to be reminded of how quickly a "strong" fiat currency (an oxymoron of word association) can unravel, merely recall the successful Brexit vote last month that caused the British pound fiat currency to plunge to 31-year lows in a single day.

 

Next, let's look at the currency disaster that has afflicted citizens of Venezuela to provide a warning to everyone as to what they need to do to preserve their wealth during the continuing great currency rot and worldwide fiat currency collapse that is currently under way. In 2002, a USD could be exchanged for 1.6 Venezuelan bolivars. In April of 2016, many media sources reported that a dollar could be exchanged for more than 1,000 Venezuelan bolivars on the Venezuelan black market. Here's how such a steep and rapid devaluation translates into real world problems. As of April 2016, Venezuelan media reported that a one kg bag of rice cost two days of wages for the average wage earner. And as of last month, the dailycoin.org reported that the average Venezuelan worker,  if they wished to buy a plane ticket to leave the country to escape this massive currency rot, would need to save two years of wages to purchase such a ticket! In other words, fiat currency collapse has ruined the life of the average Venezuelan. But what about those Venezuelans that took their cues from the currency rot events that had already been unfolding all around them and exchanged their bolivars into gold?  Within the past 5-1/2 years, gold priced in Venezuelan bolivars has soared by more than 444%, and this is just in terms of "official" government-set forex rates, which due to multiple "official" exchange rates, bizarrely range from 9 or 10 bolivars to several hundred bolivars per dollar. However, because the black market rate, as of Q1 2016, frequently reached in excess of 1000 bolivars per dollar, in essence, if one had changed bolivars into physical gold in Venezuela, and then sold some of this gold for US dollars to later be exchanged back into Venezuelan bolivars, not only would one be totally unaffected by the collapse of the Venezuelan bolivar, one would be prospering in such an environment of fiat currency collapse simply by having had the foresight to exchange intrinsically near-worthless bolivars into gold before the bolivar collapsed. And if no one wants Venezuelan bolivars, which is quite common, then one still owns gold, accepted as a universal money everywhere, or one can exchange gold into another fiat currency that is accepted. With the Venezuelan bolivar, this fiat currency is merely in the process of returning to its intrinsic value of zero, as is the destiny of all fiat currencies. In case one believes one is safe from our current orgy of Central Banker-induced fiat currency implosion by holding US dollars, remember two points.

 

One, the strongest option among a bunch of bad options is not a good option, and two, the destiny of all fiat currencies is to return to their intrinsic value of nothing, including the US dollar.

 

As I've stated above, procrastination is the enemy of wisdom, as procrastination in exchanging fiat currencies into sound money literally translated into an extreme difference between financial suffering and misery and financial prosperity in Venezuela today in less than a 6-year time span. Who will be the next country to become the next Venezuela? Most likely it will be another emerging market, but this probability does not negate the likely probability that these same problems will find their way back home to the industrialized nations that started these very problems as well (well, at least to the nations of the Central Bankers that rule these industrialized nations). And when it does, as we have all learned from the example of Venezuela above, you will either be prepared for it before it happens or try to react as it happens, but react too late,  and be wiped out financially.

 

The Central Banker destruction of all fiat currencies in every country of the world today demands a proactive approach and a reactive approach will fail.  

 

The example of Venezuela has taught us that we all have been provided ample and adequate warning to prepare for currency rot before it truly escalates in our own nation, but that shockingly, only a few among us will take the necessary actions  to survive it when currency rot rapidly escalates in our own country. Unfortunately, even those that see the beginning and intermediate stages of what has happened in Venezuela happening in their own countries, as is the currently the case in Canada, Australia, the UK, Portugal, Greece, Italy, Spain, Ireland, Kenya, Brazil, and on and on, likely will still ignore these red flags, simply because banker propaganda has prevented most of us from realizing the simplest of solutions – converting fiat currencies into the sound money of physical gold and physical silver.

 

In other words, not only is it human nature to not believe something can happen until it actually does happen,but it is also human nature to incredibly discredit an event as it unfolds before us, as long as it does not directly impact us significantly, until it invades our own personal space, directly affects us and denial of the truth is no longer plausible.

 

If you have read this article and are still skeptical, I urge you to study the current cases of fiat currency collapse that have happened/ and are happening right now in Venezuela, Russia, Mexico, Colombia, Argentina and Brazil. Studying and understanding the timeline of these currency collapses should truly awaken you to the very sobering probability of severe fiat currency devaluation and/or collapse in your country, no matter where you live.  Please refer to our prior two articles, "Three Charts that Show We're Just Getting Started in the Second Leg Higher For All Gold and Silver Assets", and "Why Intelligent Gold and Silver Mining Company CEOs are Deferring Sales of Current Production" to gain a fuller understanding of the global currency crisis.

 

To listen to a recent interview about where silver is heading, given by our Managing Director, JS Kim, to the SGT Report, click here.  Click here to learn more about the best junior gold and silver mining stocks in our Platinum Membership (mainly for accredited investors) and click here to learn about our flagship Crisis Investment Opportunities portfolio, up more than 16% in just the past month (3 June to 6 July). To be informed of our articles when we first release them (we originally released the above article on our website on 2 July 2016), please subscribe to our SmartKnowledgeU RSS feed. For occasional unpublished content, similar to this article, and unavailable anywhere else, sign up for our free newsletter.

China resumes monthly gold buying to diversify reserves

Posted: 07 Jul 2016 06:14 PM PDT

From Bloomberg News
Thursday, July 7, 2016

China, the world's biggest producer and consumer of gold, added about 500,000 ounces to central bank reserves in June, restarting monthly purchases to diversify holdings after taking a breather in May.

The People's Bank of China increased assets to 58.62 million ounces, or about 1,823 metric tons, from 58.14 million ounces in May when they were unchanged, according to data on the central bank's website. The country has boosted its hoard in 11 out of the past 12 months after announcing a 57 percent increase to 53.32 million ounces since 2009. ...

... For the remainder of the report:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-07-07/china-resumes-monthly-...



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Join GATA here:

New Orleans Investment Conference
Wednesday-Saturday, October 26-29, 2016
Hilton New Orleans Riverside
New Orleans, Louisiana
http://neworleansconference.com/

Support GATA by purchasing recordings of the proceedings of the 2014 New Orleans Investment Conference:

https://jeffersoncompanies.com/landing/2014-av-powell

Or by purchasing DVDs of GATA's London conference in August 2011 or GATA's Dawson City conference in August 2006:

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Help keep GATA going

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Alasdair Macleod: GoldMoney debit card proves gold remains money and provides choice

Posted: 07 Jul 2016 04:55 PM PDT

Using GoldMoney's Pre-loaded Cards

By Alasdair Macleod
GoldMoney, St. Helier, Jersey, Channel Islands
Thursday, July 7, 2016

At Goldmoney we have noticed that account holders sell gold to preload their Goldmoney cards when gold rises.

This makes sense. People are using their accounts as money, which is exactly what they should be doing.

A Goldmoney payments account compliments a fiat currency account and gives people options. Everyone who has a Goldmoney account also has a conventional debit or credit card, both of which they can use for day-to-day payments. By running a Goldmoney account alongside a conventional bank card, you give yourself added payment flexibility.

Let's assume you plan to take someone out to dinner. Beforehand you look at the price of gold. If it is up, measured in your normal currency, preloading your card to pay for your dinner will make it less costly than using your normal bank card, compared with yesterday. If the gold price is down, you just use your bank card.
In other words, you use the money that gives you the best deal.

This is the point about money. It is not an investment, so computing what you initially paid for gold and your profit or loss on it is not the point. You have to look at it as a competing form of money, which can give you an economic benefit.

I don't think any analysts have adequately described the benefits of being able to use two different forms of money for daily purchases, because this facility has been rarely available until now. ...

... For the remainder of the report:

https://www.goldmoney.com/research/goldmoney-insights/using-goldmoneys-p...



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Join GATA here:

New Orleans Investment Conference
Wednesday-Saturday, October 26-29, 2016
Hilton New Orleans Riverside
New Orleans, Louisiana
http://neworleansconference.com/

Support GATA by purchasing recordings of the proceedings of the 2014 New Orleans Investment Conference:

https://jeffersoncompanies.com/landing/2014-av-powell

Or by purchasing DVDs of GATA's London conference in August 2011 or GATA's Dawson City conference in August 2006:

http://www.goldrush21.com/order.html

Or a colorful poster of GATA's full-page ad in The Wall Street Journal on January 31, 2009:

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Help keep GATA going

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Gold Price Closed at $1360.10 Down $4.80 or -0.35%

Posted: 07 Jul 2016 04:14 PM PDT


7-Jul-16PriceChange% Change
Gold, $/oz1,360.10-4.80-0.35%
Silver, $/oz19.80-0.36-1.80%
Gold/Silver Ratio68.6990.9951.47%
Silver/Gold Ratio0.0146-0.0002-1.45%
Platinum1,091.104.200.39%
Palladium612.854.800.79%
S&P 5002,097.90-1.83-0.09%
Dow17,816.65-22.74-0.13%
Dow in GOLD $s270.790.610.22%
Dow in GOLD oz13.100.030.22%
Dow in SILVER oz899.9215.031.70%
US Dollar Index96.320.190.20%


Here's an interesting article y'all need to read, http://bit.ly/29qv9Zx It's from Zero Hedge, entitled "For Stan Druckenmiller This is 'The Endgame' - His Full 'Apocalyptic' Presentation." Want to know what's happening, from somebody who actually has his head screwed on straight? Read it. 

That Gold platinum spread I wrote about not long ago (pointing y'all to Bob Moriarty's article) has dropped from $374.40 on 24 June to $267 today, down $107.40 or 28.7%. It has also broken down through the uptrend line from 2014. Chart's at http://schrts.co/qyWikt 

Lacking any other way to torture myself, I stayed up last night reading articles about the European banking crisis. I cannot recommend this as a route to a good night's sleep. One of the forces making gold & silver more and more attractive is the Unattractiveness of leaving money in a bank. If the last 8 years have taught us anything, it's that the banks will steal depositors' money, with government approval. And that no matter how crooked they are, Washington will give the banks whatever they want, and the taxpayer & public be damned. 

That ain't an arena I want to loan a lot of money to, so as far as I am able, I am not loaning any more to banks -- and yes, when you "deposit" money you are loaning it to the bank. 

More on a possible financial crisis unfolding: seven (7) UK "property funds" have frozen redemptions (think "locked the doors during a bank run"). They are open ended real estate funds, & investors have run the funds with withdrawals, so many that the funds have halted trading. The fund's real estate assets, of course, cannot readily be sold to meet demands for cash. Yes, this IS a "liquidity crisis," another name for "financial panic." Can you spell B-E-A-R S-T-E-A-R-N-S? 

Y'all know how to stay out of a bar fight, right? Leave the bar before the fight breaks out. How do you stay out of a banking financial panic? Y'all fill in the blanks. 

Stocks swooned today. Dow wilted at 17,984.95, and ended 222.74 (0.13%) lower for the day at 17,816.65. S&P500 tilted over 1.83 (0.09%) to 2,097.90. 

The coming stock market debacle, whether it commenceth from here or higher, will be the stupor mundi, the wonder of the world in economic history. Why? Because the Fed's refusal to let go & let the market correct has repeatedly suppressed corrections, so that now the spring has been would so tight & values so overblown, that this will be a Bust for the Ages. 

What keeps bothering me about the US dollar index, which today gained 0.2% or 19 basis points to 96.32, is the nagging idea that the Nice Government Men might NOT be manipulating it downward. That is, that the dollar's stubborn, feckless weakness is truly its own, so the market is foretelling horrifying wretchedness in the dollar's future. Naw, it must be the NGM. Europe coming apart has to be sending gobs of money fleeing into dollars. Thus sayeth US government treasury securities at or near all time highs. 

To show any strength at all, the dollar index must cross above its 200 DMA (96.53) soon. 
Euro dropped 0.36% to $1.1062. Yen rose 0.6% to 99.27. That's nearly plumb par to the dollar (100¢=Y100). 

Was anyone surprised when Comex gold backed off $4.80 (0.4%) to $1,360.10, or silver crawfished 36.2¢ (1.8%) to 1979.8¢? This comes after 5 days of manic rises -- so stop & blow a minute. 

The rally has not ended. Gold may backtrack as far at $1,340 before it turns up again. Silver to 1920¢ or even 1900¢. The rally will resume, & quickly. 

Y'all may remember Clint Eastwood in The Outlaw Josie Wales. "When things look bad and it looks like you're not gonna make it, you gotta get MEAN. I mean, plumb, mad dog mean." 

Looks like silver & gold took Clint's advice, and they are stagin' one "plumb, mad dog mean" rally. 

Aurum et argentum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2016, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission. To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 18 ounces of silver.  US $ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.

Ambrose Evans-Pritchard: World faces deflation shock as China devalues faster

Posted: 07 Jul 2016 03:45 PM PDT

By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard
The Telegraph, London
Thursday, July 7, 2016

China has abandoned a solemn pledge to keep its exchange rate stable and is carrying out a systematic devaluation of the yuan, sending a powerful deflationary impulse through a global economy already caught in a 1930s trap.

The country's currency basket has been sliding at an annual pace of 12pc since the start of the year. This has picked up sharply since the Brexit vote, suggesting that the People's Bank may be taking advantage of the distraction to push through a sharper devaluation.

"This makes a mockery of the PBOC's suggestion that its policy is to keep the currency's value stable," said Mark Williams, chief China economist at Capital Economics. "Markets will not take PBOC policy statements at face value in the future."

Mr Williams said it is unclear whether Beijing intended to deceive investors all along when it gave categorical assurances earlier this year, or whether it is feeding on events. ...

... For the remainder of the report:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/07/07/world-faces-deflation-sho...



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Wednesday-Saturday, October 26-29, 2016
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Prophecy Update End Time Headlines 7/7/16

Posted: 07 Jul 2016 03:33 PM PDT

A fast paced highlight and review of the major news stories and headlines that relate to Bible Prophecy and the End Times… The Financial Armageddon Economic Collapse Blog tracks trends and forecasts , futurists , visionaries , free investigative journalists , researchers , Whistelblowers...

[[ This is a content summary only. Visit http://www.newsbooze.com or http://www.figanews.com for full links, other content, and more! ]]

The Disastrous Dollar Standard

Posted: 07 Jul 2016 02:56 PM PDT

This post The Disastrous Dollar Standard appeared first on Daily Reckoning.

Then the Gods of the Market tumbled, and their smooth-tongued wizards
Withdrew, And the hearts of the Meanest were humbled and began to believe
It was true That All is not Gold that Glitters, and Two and Two make Four
And the Gods of the Copybook Headings limped up to explain it once more.

— Rudyard Kipling, 1919

When the Bretton Woods international monetary system broke down in 1973, the world's financial officials were unable to agree on a new set of rules to regulate international trade and monetary relations. Instead, a new system began to emerge without formal agreement or sanction. It also remained nameless.

The current international monetary system which evolved out of the collapse of Bretton Woods will be referred to as the dollar standard — so named because U.S. dollars have become the world's core reserve currency in place of gold, which had comprised the world's reserve assets under the Bretton Woods system as well as under the classical gold standard of the 19th century.

The primary characteristic of the dollar standard is that it allowed the Unites States to finance extraordinarily large current account deficits by selling debt instruments to its trading partners instead of paying for its imports with gold, as would have been required under the Bretton Woods system or the gold standard.

In this manner, the dollar standard has ushered in the age of globalization by allowing the rest of the world to sell their products to the United States on credit. This arrangement has had the benefit of allowing much more rapid economic growth, particularly in large parts of the developing world, than could have occurred otherwise.

It also has put downward pressure on consumer prices and therefore interest rates in the United States, as cheap manufactured goods made with very low-cost labor were imported into the United States in rapidly increasing amounts.

It also has put downward pressure on consumer prices and therefore interest rates in the United States, as cheap manufactured goods made with very low-cost labor were imported into the United States in rapidly increasing amounts.

However, it is now becoming increasingly apparent that the dollar standard has also resulted in a number of undesirable, and potentially disastrous, consequences.

First, it is clear that the countries that built up large stockpiles of international reserves through current account of financial account surpluses experienced severe economic overheating and hyperinflation in asset prices that ultimately resulted in economic collapse.

Japan and the Asian Crisis countries are the most obvious examples of countries that suffered from that process. Those countries were able to avoid complete economic depression only because their governments went deeply into debt to bail out the depositors of their bankrupt banks. Now China's facing a similar crisis.

Second, flaws in the current international monetary system have also resulted in economic overheating and hyperinflation in asset prices in the United States, as the country's trading partners have reinvested their dollar surpluses in U.S. dollar-denominated assets.

Their acquisitions of stocks, corporate bonds, and U.S. agency debt have helped fuel the stock market bubble, facilitated the extraordinary misallocation of corporate capital, and helped drive U.S. property prices to unsustainable levels.

Third, the credit creation that the dollar standard made possible has resulted in over-investment on a grand scale across almost every industry. Over-investment has produced excess capacity and deflationary pressures that are now undermining corporate profitability around the world.

The U.S. economy is faltering under the immense debt burden of its corporate and consumer sectors. The rest of the world has grown reliant on exporting to the United States and has allowed the United States to pay for much of its imports on credit.

The Fed hasn't been the only central bank creating fiat money over the years. Central banks outside the U.S. have been accumulating large amounts of dollars as foreign exchange reserves since the 1980s. This, then, was a second source of liquidity. It can be measured by the increase in foreign exchange reserves.

In order to prevent their currencies from appreciating, many central banks around the world created their own money and used it to buy the dollars entering their economies as a result of their trade surpluses with the United States.

In order to prevent their currencies from appreciating, many central banks around the world created their own money and used it to buy the dollars entering their economies as a result of their trade surpluses with the United States.

Once they had acquired the dollars, they invested them in U.S. dollar assets to earn a return. The previous two peaks in excess liquidity occurred in 2000 at the time of the NASDAQ bubble and in 2006 at the time of the property bubble. The excess liquidity caused those bubbles.

The trading partners of the United States face the choice of continuing to invest their dollar surpluses in U.S. dollar-denominated assets despite very compelling reasons to doubt the security of such investments, or else converting their dollar surpluses into their own currencies, which would cause their currencies to appreciate, and their exports and economic growth rates to decline.

Neither choice is appealing, particularly considering the economic fragility of most of those countries and the huge amounts to finance the U.S. current account deficit.

In recent years, severe boom-and-bust cycles have wrecked the financial systems and government finances of countries with large balance of payments surpluses: excessive credit creation has fueled overinvestment and culminated in strong deflationary pressures around the world.

And the reinvestment of dollar surpluses into dollar assets has facilitated reckless debt expansion in the United States that has impaired the creditworthiness of its corporate and consumer sectors to such an extent as to preclude that country from continuing to serve as the world's engine of growth.

In short, the world economy is in a state of extreme disequilibrium. The flaws in the international monetary system are responsible for that disequilibrium. Those imbalances will ultimately culminate in a collapse in the value of the U.S. dollar and a continued worldwide economic slump.

The system must eventually change. The only question is how painful the transition will be.

Regards,

Richard Duncan
for The Daily Reckoning

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The post The Disastrous Dollar Standard appeared first on Daily Reckoning.

Greenspan, Gold, and the Banality of Evil

Posted: 07 Jul 2016 02:33 PM PDT

Under certain circumstances, seemingly decent human beings are capable of horrific things. So it is with Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan, who parlayed his sound money bona fides into the top post at America's private banking cartel and current issuer of our un-backed currency. In betrayal of his own stated free-market principles, Greenspan spent his tenure at the Fed pumping up financial markets with easy money and enabling runaway government spending commitments.

Islam Exposed -- Ex Muslim Wafa Sultan Explains The Danger of Islam

Posted: 07 Jul 2016 02:03 PM PDT

Ex Muslim Wafa Sultan Attacks Paedophile Muhammad Islam This ex muslim woman exsplains why she left islam, and what she saw happen to a young girl. Very tragic. The Financial Armageddon Economic Collapse Blog tracks trends and forecasts , futurists , visionaries , free investigative...

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How High Is 'Sky-High' Silver Price?

Posted: 07 Jul 2016 01:57 PM PDT

Now that the precious metals' five-year cyclical bear market is acting like it's been replaced by a vibrant bull run in the opposite direction (up!), many analysts who chided the ongoing rise in the mining stocks and metals that started in December 2015 are begrudgingly changing their "outlook" so they don't get left behind. Some veterans are holding to long-stated targets, while others are raising them as Mr. Market gives us new information.

Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts - Pause Ahead of the Non-Farm Payrolls - Winter Is Coming

Posted: 07 Jul 2016 01:09 PM PDT

In The News Today

Posted: 07 Jul 2016 11:26 AM PDT

Jim Sinclair’s Commentary The latest from John Williams' www.ShadowStats.com. - QE4, Systemic and Dollar Troubles Appear on the Horizon - Trade Deficit Widened Anew, Damaging the Outlook for Second-Quarter GDP - Construction Spending Benchmarking Was to the Upside, but Headline Growth Numbers Were Broadly Negative, with Real Annual Growth Sinking to a 53-Month Low -... Read more »

The post In The News Today appeared first on Jim Sinclair's Mineset.

Hillary Clinton Above The Law -- Jonathan Emord

Posted: 07 Jul 2016 11:05 AM PDT

Jeff Rense & Jonathan Emord - Hillary Clinton Above The Law Clip from May 05, 2016 - guest Jonathan Emord on the Jeff Rense Program. The Financial Armageddon Economic Collapse Blog tracks trends and forecasts , futurists , visionaries , free investigative journalists , researchers ,...

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Ted Butler: Turning of the tide?

Posted: 07 Jul 2016 10:38 AM PDT

1:37p ET Thursday, July 7, 2016

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Silver market analyst Ted Butler writes today that chances are improving for a short squeeze in the monetary metals futures markets that will overpower the investment banks that long have been rigging prices. Butler's commentary is headlined "Turning of the Tide?" and it's posted at GoldSeek's companion site, SilverSeek, here:

http://www.silverseek.com/commentary/turning-tide-15736

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATa.org



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Join GATA here:

New Orleans Investment Conference
Wednesday-Saturday, October 26-29, 2016
Hilton New Orleans Riverside
New Orleans, Louisiana
http://neworleansconference.com/

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http://www.goldrush21.com/order.html

Or a colorful poster of GATA's full-page ad in The Wall Street Journal on January 31, 2009:

http://gata.org/node/wallstreetjournal

Help keep GATA going

GATA is a civil rights and educational organization based in the United States and tax-exempt under the U.S. Internal Revenue Code. Its e-mail dispatches are free, and you can subscribe at:

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To contribute to GATA, please visit:

http://www.gata.org/node/16

Fiat Money Is Doing Exactly What It Was Designed To Do, Fail: Rob Kirby

Posted: 07 Jul 2016 09:10 AM PDT

Today's Guest: Rob Kirby The Financial Armageddon Economic Collapse Blog tracks trends and forecasts , futurists , visionaries , free investigative journalists , researchers , Whistelblowers , truthers and many more

[[ This is a content summary only. Visit http://www.newsbooze.com or http://www.figanews.com for full links, other content, and more! ]]

Relentless: Shanghai 138.5 Tonnes of Gold Withdrawn In June

Posted: 07 Jul 2016 08:38 AM PDT

Gold assets top 2,000 tons as the clamor for havens grows louder

Posted: 07 Jul 2016 05:24 AM PDT

From Bloomberg News
Wednesday, July 6, 2016

Global gold holdings topped 2,000 metric tons for the first time in three years as the Brexit fallout and speculation that U.S. interest rates won't rise any time soon sent investors hunting for a haven.

Holdings in bullion-backed exchange-traded funds rose 4.1 tons to 2,001.4 tons on Wednesday, data compiled by Bloomberg show. That's larger than gold reserves held by China, the biggest consumer and a consistent central-bank buyer in recent months. The latest increase followed the biggest one-day gain since 2009 in the SPDR Gold Shares, the largest gold ETF.

Global assets in the funds have surged 37 percent this year and prices are near a two-year high as slowing growth, negative rates in Europe and Japan, and the likelihood that the Federal Reserve won't hike further combined to boost demand. The U.K.'s vote last month to quit the European Union has added further impetus to that pro-bullion mix. Gold has likely entered the early stages of the next bull run, according to UBS Group AG, while ABN Amro Group NV says prices may hit $1,425 this quarter.

"Investment demand has been very strong, with institutional buyers of ETFs the big gorilla in the room," said John Butler, a vice president at GoldMoney, which provides custodian and investment services in Toronto. "We've reached a psychological tipping point where people see a material increase in the risk of a repeat of what we saw in 2008." ...

... For the remainder of the report:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-07-07/gold-assets-top-2-000-...



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Join GATA here:

New Orleans Investment Conference
Wednesday-Saturday, October 26-29, 2016
Hilton New Orleans Riverside
New Orleans, Louisiana
http://neworleansconference.com/

Support GATA by purchasing DVDs of GATA's London conference in August 2011 or GATA's Dawson City conference in August 2006:

http://www.goldrush21.com/order.html

Or a colorful poster of GATA's full-page ad in The Wall Street Journal on January 31, 2009:

http://gata.org/node/wallstreetjournal

Help keep GATA going

GATA is a civil rights and educational organization based in the United States and tax-exempt under the U.S. Internal Revenue Code. Its e-mail dispatches are free, and you can subscribe at:

http://www.gata.org

To contribute to GATA, please visit:

http://www.gata.org/node/16

Debt: The Descent into Madness

Posted: 07 Jul 2016 05:20 AM PDT

I think Grant Williams is right when he says that more books will be written about the last ten years and the next ten years than any other period in modern history and, importantly, writers are not likely to look kindly upon the current crop of central bankers. With the gold price now closing in on [...]

Get Gold At $356 Per Oz By Buying Silver Today

Posted: 07 Jul 2016 03:55 AM PDT

Gold is currently trading at around $1 370 an ounce. I like gold, but for me that is too expensive, even although I think it will increase significantly over the next couple of years. Why do I think it is too expensive? Because I think there is a way of getting it at the equivalent of $345 an ounce, by buying silver instead. In January 1980, silver and gold reached all-time high prices (at that time) of $50 and $850 respectively. Therefore, the Gold/Silver ratio at that time was about 17 (850/50).

Breaking News And Best Of The Web

Posted: 06 Jul 2016 06:44 PM PDT

Stocks recover in Europe and Asia on lessened banking fears. Gold corrects a bit on stronger US employment growth. Lots of speculation about the end of the EU. UK in turmoil post-Brexit as Labour votes to oust leader, Boris Johnson drops out of PM race, and Nigel Farage leaves UKIP. Interest rates stabilize while central […]

The post Breaking News And Best Of The Web appeared first on DollarCollapse.com.

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