Monday, July 11, 2016

Gold World News Flash

Gold World News Flash


SPDR Gold Trust gold bars at the Bank of England

Posted: 11 Jul 2016 12:15 AM PDT

One of the most notable developments accompanying the gold price rally of 2016 has been the very large additions to the gold bar holdings of the major physically backed gold Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs). This is especially true of the SPDR Gold Trust (ticker GLD).

The gold bar holdings of the SPDR Gold Trust peaked at 1353 tonnes on 7 December 2012 before experiencing a precipitous fall in 2013, and additional and continued shrinkage throughout 2014 and 2015. On 17 December 2015, the gold holdings of the SPDR Gold Trust hit a multi-year low of 630 tonnes, a holdings level that had not been seen since September 2008.

SPDR Gold Trust - 5 year chart of gold holdings and gold price. Black line - gold holdings in tonnes. Source: http://www.goldchartsrus.com

By 31 December 2015, GLD 'only' held 642 tonnes of gold bars. See above chart. Then as the New Year kicked off in January 2016, something dramatic happened. The SPDR Gold Trust began expanding its gold holdings again, and noticeably so. By 31 March 2016, the Trust held 819 tonnes of gold bars, and by 30 June 2016, it held 950 tonnes of gold bars. The latest figure at time of writing is 981 tonnes of gold bars as of 8 July 2016. (Source: GLD Gold holdings spreadsheet). 

This is a year-to-date net change of 338.89 extra tonnes of gold bars being held within the SPDR Gold Trust. See chart below. That's a 52.8% increase compared to the quantity of gold bars the Trust held at the end of 2015, and a phenomenal amount of gold by any means, since it's over 10% of annual new mine supply, and also a larger quantity of gold than all but the world's largest central banks hold in their official gold reserves. Where is all of this gold being sourced from? That is the billion dollar question. Some is obviously being imported from Swiss refineries, but perhaps not all of it.

SPDR Gold Trust - 6 month chart of gold holdings and gold price. Black line - gold holdings in tonnes. Source: http://www.goldchartsrus.com
 

In January 2016, 26.8 tonnes of gold bars were added to the SPDR Gold Trust, while a massive 108 tonnes of gold bars were added in February 2016. The first quarter was rounded off with an additional 42 tonnes of gold bars added in March, bringing the Q1 additions held by GLD's gold custodian HSBC London to 176.91 tonnes of gold bars. Noticeably, some large 1-day increases in GLD's gold bar holdings occurred on 1 February (over 12 tonnes), 11 February (over 14 tonnes), 19 and 22 February (over 19 tonnes each day), and 29th February (nearly 15 tonnes), and also on 17 and 18 March (11.9 tonnes of gold bars added each day).

The second quarter saw a 15 tonne shrinkage of GLD's gold holdings in April, but a very large 64.5 tonne increase in May, and a 81.4 tonne increase in June, making for a Q2 increase in GLD's gold bar holdings of 130.77 tonnes. Very large 1-day gold bar additions occurred on 24 and 27 June (18.4 tonnes and 13 tonnes respectively). Overall, that's 307 tonnes added to GLD in the first half of 2016.

Adding the 31.2 tonne addition for July to date gives the 338.89 tonnes addition figure quoted above. Most of this was due to a large 1-day inflow of 28.81 tonnes of gold bars reported on 5 July.

SEC - Reveal the subcustodians

I have detailed the above GLD gold bar holding changes to provide some background and put more color on the important discussion which follows.

While looking through SEC filings of the SPDR Gold Trust last month, I came across some interesting correspondence between the SEC and the sponsor of the SPDR Gold Trust, World Gold Trust Services. World Gold Trust Services is a fully owned subsidiary of the World Gold Council (WGC).

On 29 March 2016, the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) sent a letter to the SPDR Gold Trust (c/o World Gold Trust Services, LLC) essentially telling the SPDR Gold Trust to in future specify in its SEC filings the identities of the sub-custodians that are storing any of the Trust’s gold bar holdings during each reporting period. The SEC’s letter stated:

“We understand that the Custodian may appoint one or more subcustodians to hold the Trust’s gold and that the Custodian currently uses a number of subcustodians, identified on page 18. You also outline risks that may arise in connection with the use of subcustodians. In future Exchange Act periodic reports, to the extent material, please disclose the amount of the Trust’s assets that are held by subcustodians.

The page 18 referred to by the SEC is page 18 of the annual 10-K filing of the SPDR Gold Trust for the year ended 30 September 2015, which includes the following paragraph:

The Custodian is authorized to appoint from time to time one or more subcustodians to hold the Trust’s gold until it can be transported to the Custodian’s vault. The subcustodians that the Custodian currently uses are the Bank of England, The Bank of Nova Scotia-ScotiaMocatta, Barclays Bank PLC, JPMorgan Chase Bank and UBS AG.

In accordance with LBMA practices and customs, the Custodian does not have written custody agreements with the subcustodians it selects. The Custodian’s selected subcustodians may appoint further subcustodians. These further subcustodians are not expected to have written custody agreements with the Custodian’s subcustodians that selected them. The lack of such written contracts could affect the recourse of the Trust and the Custodian against any subcustodian in the event a subcustodian does not use due care in the safekeeping of the Trust’s gold. See “Risk Factors—The ability of the Trustee and the Custodian to take legal action against subcustodians may be limited.”

LBMA above refers to London Bullion Market Association. Note that the SPDR Gold Trust prospectus defines subcustodian as:

“SUB-CUSTODIAN means a sub-custodian, agent or depository (including an entity within our corporate group) selected by us to perform any of our duties under this agreement including the custody and safekeeping of Bullion.”

The SEC letter was addressed to William Rhind who was CEO of World Gold Trust Services, but who actually had resigned as CEO on 9 February 2016, something the SEC should have known since the resignation statement was also filed with the SEC. After receiving the SEC’s correspondence, Samantha McDonald, CFO of World Gold Trust Services, responded by letter to the SEC the next day, 30 March 2016, confirming that:

We will, to the extent material, disclose in future periodic reports the amount of the Trust’s assets that are held by subcustodians. Please be advised that during fiscal 2015, no gold was held by subcustodians on behalf of Trust.

Note that filings with the US SEC use the naming convention 10-K for an annual filing, and 10-Q for a quarterly filing.

Following the stipulation from the SEC to World Gold Trust Services telling it to reveal its subcustodian holdings, its intriguing to note that when SPDR Gold Trust filed its next 10-Q on 29 April 2016 for the quarter ended 31 March 2016, page 15 of this filing revealed that the Bank of England, as subcustodian, had, during Q1 2016, held up to 29 tonnes of gold on behalf of the SPDR Gold Trust. The relevant section of page 15 stated the following:

“As at March 31, 2016, the Custodian held 26,484,117 ounces of gold on behalf of the Trust in its vault, 100% of which is allocated gold in the form of London Good Delivery gold bars including gold payable, with a market value of $32,760,852,177 (cost — $32,291,685,964) based on the LBMA Gold Price PM on March 31, 2016. Subcustodians held no gold on behalf of the Trust as of March 31, 2016.

During the quarter ended March 31, 2016the greatest amount of gold held by subcustodians was approximately 29 tonnes or approximately 3.8% of the Trust’s gold at such date. The Bank of England held that gold as subcustodian.

As at September 30, 2015, the Custodian held 21,995,797 ounces of gold in its vault 100% of which is allocated gold in the form of London Good Delivery gold bars including gold payable, with a market value of $24,503,317,923 (cost — $27,103,546,125). Subcustodians held nil ounces of gold in their vaults on behalf of the Trust.”

Some Facts

From the above revelations, some facts can be stated:

  • The Bank of England held a maximum of 29 tonnes of gold on behalf of the SPDR Gold Trust on some date during Q1 2016.

Note that the wording of the 10-Q is such that it does not preclude the possibility that the Bank of England also held GLD gold at other times during Q1 2016, since it states “the greatest amount of gold” that the Bank of England held for the Trust was 29 tonnes. This implies that the Bank of England vaults could, at other times during Q1, have held less than 29 tonnes of gold on behalf of GLD.

  • As per the initial WGTS response to the SEC dated 30 March 2016, no gold was held by HSBC’s subcustodians on behalf of GLD throughout fiscal 2015 (1st October 2014 – 30 September 2015). Furthermore, GLD’s 10-Q to 31 December 2015 states that

To this can be added that according to the SPDR Gold Trust’s 10-Q for Q4 2015, “as at December 31, 2015…Subcustodians held nil ounces of gold in their vaults on behalf of the Trust

The GLD 10K (annual) for the year to 30 September 2015<

2007 All Over Again, Part 5: Banking Crisis Imminent

Posted: 10 Jul 2016 11:30 PM PDT

by John Rubino, Dollar Collapse:

Our good friend Michael Pollaro just sent a chart from the St. Louis Fed that shows the US drifting back into yet another banking crisis.

The green line tracks fluctuations in the US yield curve, defined as the difference in yield between 10-year and 2-year Treasuries. When the yield curve is steeply positive, banks are able to borrow short at low rates and lend long at higher rates, earning a nice return and in the process driving economic growth. When the yield curve flattens the opposite occurs, with banks unable to make money and becoming reluctant to lend. So a flattening yield curve implies a slowing economy. Note the similarity between the past few years' spread contraction and the one that began in 2004 and culminated in the Great Recession.

Now check out the red and blue lines representing different measures of credit quality. The lower they are, the fewer loans are in various categories of "non-performance," and vice versa. What's happening now is similar to the spike in bad loans that started in 2005.

The implication: Despite the headline numbers (like Friday's largely-fictitious jobs report) that imply a stable, modest expansion, under the surface the financial system — composed of business loans, bank profits, etc. — is deteriorating fast.

And since interest rates have fallen rather than risen post-Brexit, causing yield curves around the world to flatten further, it's safe to say that these trends are accelerating.

That would explain why so many iconic money managers and speculators have turned publicly bearish recently. The latest is Jeremy Grantham of Boston-based hedge fund GMO. Here's an excerpt from a MarketWatch article on his firm's current stance:

Investment firm that called the 2008-09 crash doesn't like most stocks or bonds

You need a portfolio of at least $5 million to get in the door as a client at Boston-based money management firm GMO.
And with some reason. The firm is famous for predicting the last two financial crashes ahead of time, and firm chairman Jeremy Grantham is a legendary figure on Wall Street. His quarterly letters are required reading by anyone managing other people's money.

GMO is usually seen as too bearish, but in an industry that is generally far too bullish that's no bad thing. And often forgotten is that the firm has made some terrific contrarian buy recommendations too — such as emerging markets and value stocks at the start of the last decade, and of stocks generally in the wake of the 2008-09 crash.

But for those of us who don't have $5 million or $10 million knocking around, what's GMO's best advice at the moment? To find out, I spoke to Matt Kadnar, a member of the firm's asset allocation committee. Here's what he said about how GMO perceives the current global investing environment:

1. The overall investment outlook is really, really dismal. "There is no asset out there that is cheap," Kadnar says. None.

2. The outlook for U.S. stocks is terrible. GMO's central forecast — which is a directional estimate more than a precise prediction — warns that U.S. large- and small-cap stock indices are now both so overpriced compared to history that they will probably lose value, compared to inflation, over the next seven or so years.

3. In the wake of the emerging markets slump and now Brexit, investors are becoming almost as dangerously fixated on U.S. stocks as they were (disastrously) in 2000, according to GMO. Kadnar says that once again, clients are starting to ask why anyone needs to own anything other than the S&P 500.

4. Investors also are likely to end up losing — after inflation — over the next seven years or so on U.S. bonds, cash, and small-cap international stocks, GMO's current central forecast predicts. The firm also sees minuscule post-inflation, or "real" returns, on both international large-cap stocks and emerging-market bonds.

Read More @ DollarCollapse.com

Panic of 2016 at the Doorstep — Gerald Celente

Posted: 10 Jul 2016 11:15 PM PDT

from Greg Hunter:

At the beginning of this year, Gerald Celente, the publisher of the Trends Journal, put out a magazine cover that predicted the "Panic of 2016." How close are we to the "panic"? Celente says, "We are at the doorstep, and it's ready to go. Look at gold prices. Look at how they have been going up. They are up 28% year to date. I ask people, would you buy a bond where you know you are going to get less back than what you paid for it in 10 years? Or, do you think gold prices will be higher in 10 years than they are now? That's why you are seeing gold as the safe haven."

Silver Prices – What Next?

Posted: 10 Jul 2016 11:01 PM PDT

Point One: Debt grows exponentially, not because it should, but because our debt-based financial system practically requires it. Point Two: Silver and gold prices increase along with the exponential...

{This is a content summary only. Click on the blog title to continue reading this post, share your comments, browse the website, and more!}

Brexit Ironies Mount: Belgian Premier Warns EU Won't Help UK Out Of "Black Hole"

Posted: 10 Jul 2016 11:00 PM PDT

Submitted by Michael Shedlock via MishTalk.com,

The move to punish the UK picks up steam even though such actions will damage the EU far more than the UK. Belgium is the latest country bound and determined to punish the UK.

Please consider EU will not help UK out of ‘black hole’, Belgian premier warns.

Britain’s vote to leave the EU has opened a political “black hole” in Westminster and Europe’s leaders will not bend to help it out, Belgium’s prime minister has warned.

 

Charles Michel’s caustic views on the unreal “dreams” of Brexiters, outlined in an hour-long interview with the Financial Times, speak to the difficulties Britain faces in reaching an exit trade deal that satisfies all 27 EU leaders and their parliaments.

 

Before the referendum, the liberal leader doggedly resisted giving Britain a special deal on its EU membership terms. He is now showing similar resolve over any Brexit deal, pushing the UK to start the divorce promptly and telling it to expect no big concessions on migration or market access.

 

“The truth is it’s a very negative situation for the UK, there is no doubt,” he said.

The Truth

The truth is Brexit is very bad for the EU, and punishing the UK will make matters worse, possibly even starting a global trade war.

Facts of the Matter

Risk of Global Trade Collapse

Please consider “No Cherry Picking” Says Merkel; Risk of Global Trade Collapse says Mish

Germany Trade

Bluff or Stupidity?

Germany exports €50,963,643 to the UK than it takes back in imports.

 

Another irony in this madness is Marine le Pen is the leading candidate in French polls.

Le Pen stated “This Is the Beginning of the End of the European Union“.

For details please see Hollande Lectures US About Trump.

The final irony in this mess is that it’s the EU on the verge of falling into an economic black hole, and punishing the UK is one sure way to make that happen.

SILVER: There is a Nearly Half-Dollar Premium (Arbitrage) on China’s SGE Tonight [$20.83 vs. $20.38]

Posted: 10 Jul 2016 09:46 PM PDT

DID THE SYSTEM COLLAPSE? [Not yet.]

from Did The System Collapse?:

WHAT IS GOING ON? [Click READ MORE below]

Real money is Gold and Silver. Paper money only started having value because it used to be backed by gold several decades ago. Now it’s backed by nothing except mass delusion and geopolitics.

Since the 2008 economic collapse, central banks around the world have overdosed on financial stimulus and printing money out of thin air. They have artificially suppressed the prices of gold and silver to keep the dollar delusion going.

On April 19th 2016, China locked in the dollar’s death by launching their own gold price fix. For the first time in modern history there are now two prices of gold, one in the Chinese yuan and the other in the dying dollar.

If the West were to raise the price of gold, it would kill the dollar completely as it would prematurely instigate the inevitable mother of all safe haven panics.

If the East were to raise the price of gold, it would drain the West’s gold reserves due to arbitrage. This would expose the West’s fake gold market and kill the dollar. Doing this prematurely means the East could no longer buy gold for themselves at heavily undervalued prices for their post-collapse monetary dominance.

The eventual endgame is that the price of gold skyrockets and the dollar permanently collapses along with the global banking system and modern society as we know it. Black Friday will be everyday as the masses murder each other for a peach pit. This is sure to happen anytime between now and the end of 2018.

Don’t believe it? Don’t worry you’ll find out soon.

“The World Is Walking From Crisis To Crisis” – Why BofA Sees $1,500 Gold And $30 Silver

Posted: 10 Jul 2016 08:33 PM PDT

from Zero Hedge:

The world has been walking from crisis to crisis and we see risks that this may not change. The importance of that dynamic for the precious metals is mirrored by the high correlation between potential US GDP growth and gold quotations. Interest  rates globally are set to remain low, which in turn reduces the opportunity costs of holding a non-yielding asset like gold. We believe gold prices could rise to $1,500/oz near-term. We called a bottom in silver in April on supply and demand dynamics; an overshoot of prices to $30/oz is possible.

that someone does not believe the seasonally-adjusted numbers goalseeked by the BLS.

 

And while we reported last week that one way investors are rushing into the anti-QE safety of gold is by buying paper gold derivatves such as ETFs, which rose above 2,000 tons for the first time since 2013, many others have bypassed paper claims on gold such as GLD entirely, and are rushing into physical.

Case in point, Japanese savers who, fearing domestic confiscation, have been accumulating gold in Switzerland. It’s not just the Japanese: as Nick Laird shows, the past week saw the second largest ever increase in physical gold holdings, as the total published holdings of physical funds rose by 2.5 million ounces to 85.8 million, second only to the 4 million ounce increase in early 2009.

 

Finally, with even the sellside starting to turn, there may be more upside as the slow money starts to move in. In a whimsical note released on Friday, Bank of America’s metals team writes “Gold: always believe in your soul. Glad you are bound to return. You're indestructible.”

Yes, we were surprised too, but it’s true.

Strange golden “poetry” aside, this is why BofA thinks gold is going to $1,500 and silver’s next stop is an “overshoot” to $30.

The world has been walking from crisis to crisis and we see risks that this may not change. The importance of that dynamic for the precious metals is mirrored by the high correlation between potential US GDP growth and gold quotations. Many of the underlying issues affecting the global economy are structural, with Brexit merely a symptom of the problems many countries are facing. To that point, we called a bottom in gold in February and Brexit reinforces our view. As such we are upgrading next year's gold price forecast from $1,325/oz to $1,475/oz. We called a bottom in silver in April on supply and demand dynamics; an overshoot of prices to $30/oz is possible.

Gold heading for $1,500/oz

After a weak US labour market report earlier in June, the risk of Brexit added to the gold price rally ahead of the vote (Chart 11) and after. In our view, Brexit has affected gold through various transmission channels. On the fixed income side, US Treasuries and German bunds have benefited from a flight to quality; the current uncertainty also suggests that an accelerated rate hiking cycle is unlikely, so interest  rates globally are set to remain low, which in turn reduces the opportunity costs of holding a non-yielding asset like gold. Given this dynamic, we believe gold prices could rise to $1,500/oz near-term.

 

The world will keep on walking from crisis to crisis

Read More @ ZeroHedge.com

The Prospects For Money

Posted: 10 Jul 2016 07:50 PM PDT

Submitted by Alasdair Macleod via GoldMoney.com,

In my view, this new bout of turmoil in financial markets is the prelude to the final demise of government currency.

If I’m right, a long-expected collapse in the purchasing power, and of the very concept of fiat currency, will evolve from current events. The purpose of this article is to explain why monetary theory predicts a currency collapse.

The question at the heart of today’s market instability is the validity of fiat currency; that is to say, forms of money issued and sanctioned by individual governments, with no backing other than faith in those governments’ creditworthiness, and the enforcement of its use by law. The risks they impose on all of us will be evidenced one day by both the speed of the fall in each individual fiat money’s purchasing power, and inevitably by their comparison with gold’s more stable purchasing power. Essentially, an awareness of the dangers of unsound money will gradually become evident to every economic actor.

So far, or at least since the days when fiat money was freely exchangeable for gold, central banks have managed to enforce upon us their currencies as money, originally on the basis they were gold substitutes. That pretence was finally dropped in 1971. The purchasing power of fiat currencies has never been seriously challenged since, except in relatively few extreme cases, such as Zimbabwe and Venezuela. Not even the financial crisis eight years ago threatened a collapse in fiat currencies, when banks had to be rescued with unlimited extra quantities of money and credit.

The current crisis has commenced while there are determined efforts to stop the purchasing power of the major currencies from rising, even leading to the deployment of negative interest rates in this quest. None of the central banks’ policies appear to have worked. The increasing purchasing power of the yen, despite all attempts to lessen it, is the clearest example of the abject failure of a central bank to achieve its monetary objectives. The same can be said of the ECB and the euro, a currency even more synthetic than those it replaced. It is clear that the central banks are setting monetary policy more in hope than in a true appreciation of their own hopelessness.

They place an undue emphasis on empirical evidence. That’s why charts and statistics are so important to them and all their epigones. When you don’t understand and cannot explain something, you turn to the so-called evidence. And when very few people actually have a reasonable grasp of what money is about, you can rely on empirical evidence being unchallenged. For monetary policy, this tells us two things: central banks are clueless about monetary theory, and in the event of a second systemic crisis, they will be misguided by their experiences of the last one.

Today’s empirical evidence reflects the bail-out of the global banking system in 2008/09. Neo-classical monetarists were initially worried by the potential for price deflation in the wake of the banking system’s rescue, and so central bankers expanded narrow money by unprecedented quantities to counter credit deflation, real and anticipated. These were intended to be short-term measures, to be replaced with more normal monetary policies as soon as the immediate crisis was over. These short term measures are still in place today eight years later.

The impact on the gold price

After the Lehman shock, which led to a temporary flight into both money and short-term government debt, the purchasing power of currencies relative to that of gold rose, with the gold price falling from $930 to $690. Subsequently, when it became apparent that monetary expansion had succeeded in curbing deflationary forces, this trend reversed, taking the gold price to over $1900. That then changed in September 2011, following concerted central bank intervention to supress the gold price.

The dollar-gold relationship has now turned once again, signalling that the tide of confidence is moving against currencies. The purchasing power of currencies measured against that of gold is now falling. We now have a banking crisis in the making, if the share prices of major banks are any indication. The UK’s decision by referendum to leave the EU points to Europe’s political disintegration. Increasing market volatility tells us that another systemic crisis may well be imminent, and government bonds reflect a continuing flight to safety.

Already, the Bank of England has announced that a further £250bn in monetary support will be made available to the banks, and that additional swap lines have been agreed between the major central banks. We can take this as evidence that the central banks, relying on empirical evidence, are preparing a new round of monetary expansion as the solution to any future crisis, confirmed in their belief that the risk to the credibility of their currencies is unlikely to be a problem.

This is not what gold, when priced in these currencies, is telling us. To understand why and where the central bankers are mistaken, we must consider some fundamental points about how money actually works.

The theory of money and its purchasing power

To prepare our minds for a comprehensive understanding of monetary theory, we must at the outset dispense with any idea that statistical analysis is relevant. It is not, because there are no constants involved. Valid statistics require at least one constant, usually the purchasing power of money. In the whole field of economics, let alone money, there are none. The purchasing power of money is to a large degree independent of its quantity, and depends on a fluctuating acceptance that it is exchangeable for goods. Quack monetarists that believe in the equation of exchange, despite all evidence it does not work, overlook the subjective factors that qualify something as money.

When we set out to understand money, we must acknowledge there are three major influences at work, besides a general acceptance that a particular form of money is exchangeable for goods. There is the subjective value of the goods for which an exchange is considered, there are the fluctuations in the relative quantities of goods and money in the exchange process, and there is the balance of relative desires in the population as a whole to increase or decrease the quantity of money held, relative to goods. All these factors are the unknowable decision of every single economic actor, and fluctuate accordingly.

This self-evident truth continually risks undermining the very function of any particular form of money, which in order to be acceptable to the parties in any transaction must have a commonly accepted value, even though one party will want money more than the other at a given price. This commonly accepted value has been described by the economist, von Mises, as money’s objective exchange value. It is the one thing that parties to a transaction can agree upon. A dollar is a dollar, a euro is a euro, and so on, even though different individuals will want these forms of money more or less than other individuals.

So far, we have addressed only one out of four dimensions of the money problem. A second dimension is that demand for some goods is always greater than demand for other goods, so money’s purchasing power will differ for every good and class of good exchanged for it. It is never sufficient to just assume that, for instance, the price of housing is rising solely due to demand for housing. It also rises because people place a lower value on money than they do on bricks and mortar. On reflection, this truth should be self-evident. But it also holds true for every other good for which any particular form of money is exchanged, and it is too simplistic to assume that changes in price come from the goods side alone.

A third dimension to consider is that the products and quantities of goods and services purchased yesterday will not be the same as the products bought tomorrow. Besides making the point again, that statistics are wholly irrelevant to understanding money, we can also add that what money will be used to buy tomorrow and in what proportions cannot be predicted, beyond perhaps some broad generalisations, such as people will buy food, they will use energy, and they will enjoy some leisure time. Such platitudes are of no practical value to understanding monetary theory, and disqualify the use of price indices and aggregates such as gross domestic product.

The fourth dimension is one of time. The injection of money into an economy will start at a point, typically the banks creating loans, or governments through unfunded spending. Money therefore enters an economy unevenly, benefitting some at the expense of others. This is known as the Cantillon effect, and is universally ignored by the neo-classical economic community.

The problem today

The reader should now have a grasp as to why attempts to discern future purchasing powers for money are futile, and why monetary policies of central banks never succeed, except perhaps by pure chance.

As if the four dimensions cited above were not enough, there is a further problem. Most fiat money is produced not by central banks, as is commonly supposed, but by commercial banks, which lend money into existence. Bank credit is essentially temporary money, and is regularly extinguished in credit cycles. It is the obvious potential for this bank credit to contract which concerns central bankers most. When bank credit contracts, businesses that are over-reliant on debt for their capital requirements, and companies that have borrowed to finance unprofitable production go bankrupt. This is the bust of the credit cycle. In recent decades, the bust has been deferred and deferred and deferred, but hasn’t gone away.

The failure of central bank monetary policies appears to have reached an inflection point. This is what the share prices of systemically-important banks are telling us. This is what the political disintegration of Europe, upon which the new synthetic euro is based, is telling us. This is what the cul-de-sac of permanently zero and negative interest rates are telling us. This is what wildly over-priced government bonds are telling us. This is what the greatest indicator of all, the price of gold is now telling us.

The inflection point, I believe, is the marker for a potentially catastrophic decline in the purchasing power of paper currencies that are unbacked by exchangeable gold. The faith and credit-standing of issuers of paper money, and not the known and suspected inadequacies of commercial finance, is the last rotten pit-prop supporting the system. We can easily see how a new round of monetary expansion designed to save the global banking system from its nemesis will lead, not to a Lehman-style outcome, but to a collapse of paper currencies.

This, apart from the implied forecast for gold in the paragraph before last, is the only truly subjective statement in this article on a truly subjective subject.

The Federal Reserve's Grand Scheme Exposed (In 1 Simple Chart)

Posted: 10 Jul 2016 06:50 PM PDT

For 138 years, consumer prices in America slightly declined. After The Federal Reserve was created, things changed...

The 'scheme' exposed...

Source: VisualizingEconomics.com

But, not satisfied with that shift, in 1971, Nixon unhooked American economics from any rationality, because - as we detailed previously - 'The 1%' hate the Gold Standard... between 1930 and 1970, it was only the "bottom 90%" that saw their incomes rise, as can be seen on the next chart.

In other words, the ascent of the non-1% peaked when the Deep State forced Nixon to depart from the gold standard's constraint on largesse.

Which should also clarify just why to the "1%", including their protectors in the "developed market" central banking system, their tenured economist lackeys, their purchased politicians and their captured media outlets, the topic of a return to a gold standard is the biggest threat conceivable.

"The World Is Walking From Crisis To Crisis" - Why BofA Sees $1,500 Gold And $30 Silver

Posted: 10 Jul 2016 06:08 PM PDT

With both stocks and US Treasury prices at all time highs the market is sensing that something has to give, and that something may just be more QE, which likely explains the move higher in gold to coincide with both risk and risk-haven assets. As of moments ago, gold rose above $1,370, and was back to levels not seen since 2014. Curiously, the move higher is taking place after Friday's "stellar" jobs report, suggesting that someone does not believe the seasonally-adjusted numbers goalseeked by the BLS.

 

And while we reported last week that one way investors are rushing into the anti-QE safety of gold is by buying paper gold derivatves such as ETFs, which rose above 2,000 tons for the first time since 2013, many others have bypassed paper claims on gold such as GLD entirely, and are rushing into physical.

Case in point, Japanese savers who, fearing domestic confiscation, have been accumulating gold in Switzerland. It's not just the Japanese: as Nick Laird shows, the past week saw the second largest ever increase in physical gold holdings, as the total published holdings of physical funds rose by 2.5 million ounces to 85.8 million, second only to the 4 million ounce increase in early 2009.

 

Finally, with even the sellside starting to turn, there may be more upside as the slow money starts to move in. In a whimsical note released on Friday, Bank of America's metals team writes "Gold: always believe in your soul. Glad you are bound to return. You're indestructible."

Yes, we were surprised too, but it's true.

Strange golden "poetry" aside, this is why BofA thinks gold is going to $1,500 and silver's next stop is an "overshoot" to $30.

The world has been walking from crisis to crisis and we see risks that this may not change. The importance of that dynamic for the precious metals is mirrored by the high correlation between potential US GDP growth and gold quotations. Many of the underlying issues affecting the global economy are structural, with Brexit merely a symptom of the problems many countries are facing. To that point, we called a bottom in gold in February and Brexit reinforces our view. As such we are upgrading next year's gold price forecast from $1,325/oz to $1,475/oz. We called a bottom in silver in April on supply and demand dynamics; an overshoot of prices to $30/oz is possible.

 

Gold heading for $1,500/oz

 

After a weak US labour market report earlier in June, the risk of Brexit added to the gold price rally ahead of the vote (Chart 11) and after. In our view, Brexit has affected gold through various transmission channels. On the fixed income side, US Treasuries and German bunds have benefited from a flight to quality; the current uncertainty also suggests that an accelerated rate hiking cycle is unlikely, so interest  rates globally are set to remain low, which in turn reduces the opportunity costs of holding a non-yielding asset like gold. Given this dynamic, we believe gold prices could rise to $1,500/oz near-term.

 

 

 

The world will keep on walking from crisis to crisis

 

Switching tack slightly, macroeconomic uncertainty in the UK, Eurozone and US remains elevated; the high correlation between US potential GDP growth and gold (Chart 12) highlights how important this is for the precious metal. While the underlying ills are nuanced between countries, an increasing polarization of politics and a rise in populism have been common by-products; to that point, wealth generation/wealth distribution, immigration and sovereignty have caused contentious debates. Of course, this has not helped confidence and did not make it easier for governments to implement the measures necessary to put economies on a more sustainable footing. As a result, a host of countries has moved through a series of mini-crises in recent years, which we believe is unlikely to change. Hence, we reinforce our view first published in February 2016 that gold prices have bottomed.

 

Silver can overshoot to $30/oz

 

Gold has been the market's focus through most of 2016, although silver has outperformed the yellow metal of late. The rally does not necessarily come as a surprise, a point made in April, when we highlighted that silver is bottoming out (Global Metals Weekly: Silver has a silver lining 25 April 2016).

 

Chart 13 shows the model behind our rationale. That analysis assumes that investors are the marginal buyers, so we ask how strong non-commercial demand needs to be to balance the silver market at $15/oz, $20/oz and $25/oz. Our analysis suggests the following:

  • For silver to trade at or below $15/oz, non-commercial market participants would need to reduce purchases further compared to 2015. This is not our base case.
  • Silver can average $20/oz if investors increased their purchases slightly, which we believe is likely.
  • A sustained rally towards $25/oz would require an increase of non-speculative demand to the tune of 30% YoY. While possible, this looks a tall order.

 

Taking a closer look at investment demand, Chart 14 shows that silver coin sales in the US, an important demand segment, have been strong YTD. Having said that, we note that coin premia (an indicator for market tightness; Chart 15), but also prices in China have not rallied as much as international spot quotations (Chart 16). This is an indication that the rally in the past few days, which was largely based on the  paper market, may not necessarily have the underpinnings of physical buying.

 

When government debt is worthless, gold and silver are supreme, von Greyerz says

Posted: 10 Jul 2016 04:36 PM PDT

7:30p ET Sunday, July 10, 2016

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Governments, Swiss gold fund manager Egon von Greyerz tells King World News today, will never repay their ever-increasing debt. Indeed, he adds, they can't afford to pay even interest on that debt, which explains the rising amount of negative-interest government bonds. In such a world, von Greyerz concludes, the only safe money is gold and silver. An excerpt from the interview is posted at KWN here:

http://kingworldnews.com/danger-the-world-is-now-on-the-verge-of-the-lar...

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org



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Stacking the Odds for Discovery

By Tommy Humphreys
CEO.ca

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... For the remainder of the report, and the video interview, please visit:

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Or a colorful poster of GATA's full-page ad in The Wall Street Journal on January 31, 2009:

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In The News Today

Posted: 10 Jul 2016 01:06 PM PDT

  Jim Sinclair’s Commentary I love Mr. Williams' comments on the employments figures. - Headline Month-to-Month Payroll and Unemployment Data Are Rubbish, Heavily Skewed by Inconsistent and Not-Comparable Seasonal Adjustments - Private Surveying Shows Plunging Employment Circumstances Last Seen During the 2009 Economic Collapse – June 2016 Unemployment Rates: U.3 Rose to 4.9%, but U.6... Read more »

The post In The News Today appeared first on Jim Sinclair's Mineset.

Jim’s Mailbox

Posted: 10 Jul 2016 01:01 PM PDT

Dear James/Bill, Could you kindly tell me what the law is when the party (party can be a fund, bank or another country) to whom the gold has been swapped to goes bankrupt? My common sense tells me the person who made the swap will then hold a worthless piece of paper at this point... Read more »

The post Jim’s Mailbox appeared first on Jim Sinclair's Mineset.

Gerald Celente -- Panic of 2016 at the Doorstep

Posted: 10 Jul 2016 01:00 PM PDT

At the beginning of this year, Gerald Celente, the publisher of the Trends Journal, put out a magazine cover that predicted the "Panic of 2016." How close are we to the "panic"? Celente says, "We are at the doorstep, and it's ready to go. Look at gold prices. Look at how they have been going up....

[[ This is a content summary only. Visit http://www.newsbooze.com or http://www.figanews.com for full links, other content, and more! ]]

OBAMA WANTS CIVIL WAR - - - NO LIVES MATTER

Posted: 10 Jul 2016 12:00 PM PDT

Thousands have protested across the US over police killings of black men for a fifth straight day, with several people - including a prominent activist - arrested for violence and disruption. The Financial Armageddon Economic Collapse Blog tracks trends and forecasts , futurists ,...

[[ This is a content summary only. Visit http://www.newsbooze.com or http://www.figanews.com for full links, other content, and more! ]]

Why The US Dollar Will Collapse on 27 September 2016 ?

Posted: 10 Jul 2016 11:34 AM PDT

This collapse will be global and it will bring down not only the dollar but all other fiat currencies,as they are fundamentally no different. The collapse of currencies will lead to the collapse of ALL paper assets. The repercussions to this will have incredible results worldwide. dollar collapse...

[[ This is a content summary only. Visit http://www.newsbooze.com or http://www.figanews.com for full links, other content, and more! ]]

Anonymous : First 12 Hours of a Dollar Collapse On 27 September 2016

Posted: 10 Jul 2016 10:00 AM PDT

This collapse will be global and it will bring down not only the dollar but all other fiat currencies,as they are fundamentally no different. The collapse of currencies will lead to the collapse of ALL paper assets. The repercussions to this will have incredible results worldwide and each...

[[ This is a content summary only. Visit http://www.newsbooze.com or http://www.figanews.com for full links, other content, and more! ]]

END TIMES SIGNS: LATEST EVENTS (JULY 10TH, 2016)

Posted: 10 Jul 2016 09:40 AM PDT

end times, end times signs, end times news, end times events, bible prophecy, prophecy in the news, tornado, earthquake, strange weather, strange events, apocalyptic signs, apocalyptic events, strange weather phenomenon The Financial Armageddon Economic Collapse Blog tracks trends and...

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This Video Will Bring Down Black Lives Matter

Posted: 10 Jul 2016 09:00 AM PDT

Alex breaks down the simple plan of the globalists to divide and conquer with a potential race war so that they can further their Agenda and enslave humanity. The Financial Armageddon Economic Collapse Blog tracks trends and forecasts , futurists , visionaries , free...

[[ This is a content summary only. Visit http://www.newsbooze.com or http://www.figanews.com for full links, other content, and more! ]]

Gold and US Dollar Trend Forecasts

Posted: 10 Jul 2016 08:34 AM PDT

While I’m expecting some kind of pullback at the $1390-$1400 level, I don’t think gold’s intermediate cycle will top until at least retracing the 50% Fibonacci level and probably back to $1550 by September. This will almost certainly be driven by an aggressive moved down in the US Dollar as it really starts to accelerate into the next 3 year cycle low due sometime net summer or fall.

The Big Silver Long - What Gives?

Posted: 10 Jul 2016 08:27 AM PDT

As Chris Powell of GATA made famous: "Price action makes market commentary". Control the price of anything and you get control of the story. The U.S. Commodities Future Exchange (COMEX), a subsidiary of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), is central to price discovery – and nothing else can compete. Price action on the big silver ETF, SLV does not (yet!) factor into a price that begins and ends with a trading structure that is rigged to the tune of a few traders who dominate one side of the trade.

Silver Prices - The Rise and Fall of the Specs With No Clothes

Posted: 10 Jul 2016 08:11 AM PDT

The mainstream financial media, as well as some retail investors, have awakened to the surge in the price of silver, relative to just about everything else in 2016.  And while this rally feels different, are we there yet? Or are we close to the point where COMEX doesn't matter as far as price discovery is concerned? I realize the question always comes down to if not now, then when? But “how?” is a close second.

Elite Preparing for FINANCIAL ARMAGEDDON -- James Corbett

Posted: 10 Jul 2016 07:33 AM PDT

Economic collapse and financial crisis is rising any moment. Getting informed about collapse and crisis may earn you, or prevent to lose money. Do you want to be informed with Max Keiser, Alex Jones, Gerald Celente, Peter Schiff, Marc Faber, Ron Paul,Jim Willie, Steve Quayle, V Economist, and many...

[[ This is a content summary only. Visit http://www.newsbooze.com or http://www.figanews.com for full links, other content, and more! ]]

Silver Prices - The Rise and Fall of the Specs With No Clothes

Posted: 10 Jul 2016 03:00 AM PDT

Jeffrey Lewis

Breaking News And Best Of The Web

Posted: 09 Jul 2016 06:44 PM PDT

Stocks recover on huge (but largely fictitious) US payrolls beat. Gold stabilizes and interest rates continue to fall, with Japanese 20-year bond yields going negative and US yield curve flattening to 2007 levels. Civil unrest in the US, as sniper kills five police in Dallas. UK in turmoil post-Brexit as Labour votes to oust leader, […]

The post Breaking News And Best Of The Web appeared first on DollarCollapse.com.

Top Ten Videos — July 10

Posted: 09 Jul 2016 05:15 PM PDT

Debt, China, the Long Wave. Gold’s bull market is just beginning. The FBI rolls over for Hillary. Gerald Celente on the neo-feudal society. Peter Schiff does stand-up. Nigel Farage says goodbye.                    

The post Top Ten Videos — July 10 appeared first on DollarCollapse.com.

The Chartology of a Generational Gold and Silver Miners Move

Posted: 09 Jul 2016 04:56 AM PDT

This first chart for tonight is the GOLD:XAU ratio combo chart we’ve been following very closely. I just want to make it perfectly clear what this ratio chart is telling us. The ratio chart on top is telling us that gold is in a parabolic collapse vs the XAU after 20 years of out performance. Even though they can both go up together the XAU stocks are going up parabolic to gold as shown by the vertical move down in the ratio and the vertical move up in the XAU.

Jason Zweig: Still Wrong on Gold

Posted: 09 Jul 2016 04:16 AM PDT

Jason Zweig, who a year ago called Gold a “pet rock” is doubling down. He reiterates his belief, albeit a misguided one that Gold is a pet rock and justifies it with the usual anti gold bug propaganda. Unfortunately, Zweig along with many gold-bashers and ironically some gold bugs continue to either neglect Gold’s major fundamental driver or have no clue about it.

Brexit Vote and Gold

Posted: 09 Jul 2016 04:11 AM PDT

In a historic referendum, Britain voted to leave the European Union. We covered this topic in our Gold News Monitors a few times, however it is worth analyzing in more detail, as the Brexit vote entails important implications for the global economy and the gold market. Initially, the Brexit vote led to short financial shock with a plunging pound and equities. However, the markets soon recovered, and the shock was not as bad as many had feared. Similarly, there was a knee-jerk reaction in gold, which boosted its price up to the $1,350 level immediately after the vote’s results were announced. As the chart below shows, the gold prices spiked in the U.S. dollar, in the Euro and, to a great extent, in the British pound.

Jim’s Mailbox

Posted: 08 Jul 2016 02:43 PM PDT

Jim/Bill, The perfect storm. Three low pressure systems coming together! -Asia physical demand-Running out of inventory-Shanghai and Dubai the next price setters Need I say more? Of course I need say more! The price rise will NOT stop at $1,900. CIGA Wolfgang Rech Why This Aussie Firm Says Gold to ‘Certainly’ Hit $1,500, Maybe Even... Read more »

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