Wednesday, June 15, 2016

Gold World News Flash

Gold World News Flash


BHS scandal: Sir Philip Green to appear before MPs over collapse of high street giant

Posted: 15 Jun 2016 01:29 AM PDT

This posting includes an audio/video/photo media file: Download Now

Decoupling FOREX investing from trading

Posted: 14 Jun 2016 08:15 PM PDT

Forex is a trader's market.  So many complex factors go into foreign exchange rates, it's really impossible to conclude what will be the EUR/USD in 1 year, 10 years, or 50 years - as explained in Splitting Pennies.  Investing in Forex is like betting on the weather.  And frankly speaking, given the right climate, it can work.  For example, during the post 9/11 global market, it was assumed that USD would go down, and it did - thus propping currencies like NZD, EUR, GBP, and others.  Take a look at the monthly GBP/USD chart - interesting to ponder also because of possible Brexit looming:

It took the credit crisis of 2007 to reverse the trend.  And in the end - looking back 15 years, what changed with the GBP/USD rate?  Right back to where it was, 1.41 handle.  With talk of Brexit, Bremain - what is a Forex investor to think?  Flip a coin - you'll have better odds.  Psychological factors in Forex work against investors as well.  Do you really have what it takes, to sit on a GBP/USD position for 6 years?  From 2001 to 2007, it would have been without leverage, a 48% gain - with 10x leverage, or 10:1 - that's 480% - plus the swap (which still would have been positive for a GBP/USD long in that time).  So here's a situation where the climate was ripe for long term Forex investment.  Since then, such an opportunity hasn't presented itself, with the majors.  Maybe Brexit will be a new trend of GBP/USD - the start of a new super cycle.  But it's too complicated to bet on.  There are other examples, such as the 4 decade long CHF bull run that ended with the SNB (Swiss National Bank) bending over for their US masters.  Investors who bought CHF post Nixon shock, would have had without leverage 400% + return, since the recent super cycle top, and final meltdown and manipulation of the Swiss Franc.

Everyday, we wake up and check the markets - what's the news?  Even with a 24/7 dedicated analysis team, it's difficult to even conclude what the market outcome will be, based on the facts.  Market perception in Forex can be completely off.  For example there are those that believe Brexit can be GBP positive post vote.  

Investing in Forex requires years of experience, a crack analysis team, loads of investment capital to weather any short term storm, and nerves of steel.  

Trading Forex

So, let's explore 'trading' Forex - meaning - day trading, short term, to capture price movements, regardless of direction - as an investment strategy PER SE.  

If anyone has ever tried trading Forex manually - it's nearly impossible.  Statistics about individual Forex traders can be misleading.  Brokers are now required to publish statistics about accounts, how many are positive, and other data.  But this data doesn't include how many accounts are managed, or use signals, algorithms, or other robot-assisted trading.  Because trading Forex is so difficult, many traders will develop or purchase trading algorithms (such as this one named "Liquidity") to assist their trading.  It's similar to hiring a manager such as an RIA (Registered Investment Advisor), the difference being it's a software system that manages your account, placing trades based on a proprietary algorithm.  (An algorithm is a series of steps)

This type of algorithmic trading in Forex is so common, it's almost unheard of that someone will blindly trade Forex without the aid of an algorithm, signal system, or other aid.  A technical indicator system such as technical analysis, qualifies as a signal system.  So, is it possible in Forex to find good algorithms, and trading systems, that work?  Yes - of course it is!  Companies such as Fortress Capital, offer Forex Managed Accounts services (in the case of Fortress, for QEP (Qualified Eligible Person) only ).  Other companies such as Elite E Services, offer algorithms for purchase and lease, for traders to trade their own accounts.  But of course, it's an ever growing problem for US Citizens, who are only allowed a few small choices of Forex brokers, who are over regulated (due to the overwhelming Forex fraud which is .. knock knock .. a thing of the past).

One day, perhaps the Forex regulations will change, and robo-advisors will be an asset class by itself.  This is happening outside of the US, as the lax rules and higher leverage allow algorithms to live and breathe.  Until that day, US investors who are interested in Forex, are left with the difficult choices of expatriation, qualifying themselves as QEP, or sticking to the good ol' stock market, where it's possible to buy products that you enjoy every day, like Microsoft (MSFT).  

In conclusion, here we have simply decoupled Forex investing from trading, and hinted at the hybrid mix - when a trader uses an algorithm, it becomes an 'investment' just as one invests in a currency, one 'invests' in a robotic strategy.  But the good news about robots, they can be tested, and used in a plethora of ways.  Whereas, with simple vanilla currency investing, there's only so many ways to sell a covered call on a GBP/USD position to earn extra 'dividends.'

If you're interested in learning more about what Forex is - the starting place is to checkout Splitting Pennies - Understanding Forex.  It's only $6.11 on Kindle, about $1 in 1970 when Forex was created.  For those who remember when markets were traded on paper, there's a paperback edition of the book Splitting Pennies for only $14.98.  The book was published by Elite E Services, Inc. - a Forex technology company.

Jim Willie: Silver Byproduct Supply Problems Could Mean 5 Fold Gains in Silver?

Posted: 14 Jun 2016 07:40 PM PDT

How Will a Brexit Vote Impact Gold and Silver Prices?

Posted: 14 Jun 2016 07:00 PM PDT

Gold Stock Bull

Saville loves his charts but they don't answer the market-rigging question

Posted: 14 Jun 2016 06:43 PM PDT

9:48p ET Tuesday, June 14, 2016

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Another technical analyst, newsletter writer Steve Saville of The Speculative Investor, tries this week to defend TA by arguing that manipulation of the gold market has not much affected gold's price.

In an essay titled "Four Charts that Invalidate the Gold-Price Suppression Story" --

http://tsi-blog.com/2016/06/four-charts-that-invalidate-the-gold-price-s...

-- Saville writes: "Every experienced trader knows that the financial markets are manipulated. They always have been manipulated and they always will be manipulated. Railing against gold-market manipulation is therefore akin to railing against the Earth revolving around the sun."

But are all markets always manipulated by the government? If so, it's a story that has yet to be reported by mainstream financial news organizations -- or, for that matter, by Saville himself.

... Dispatch continues below ...



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Saville continues: "Moreover, the attempts to manipulate -- which, by the way, will be designed to move prices upward just as often as downward -- will never be effective beyond the very short-term."

But didn't the gold standard of the late 1800s and early 1900s manipulate -- that is, control -- the gold price for decades? Didn't the London Gold Pool rig the gold price for most of the 1960s? How do either of those periods qualify as "very short-term"?

Then Saville compares the gold price since 2007 against four market indexes to argue that "gold has done roughly what it should have done." But "should have done" according to whom, other than Saville himself?

And is Saville sure that governments have not been simultaneously intervening surreptitiously in those other indexes as well to ensure that they too did what they "should have done" -- at least "should have done" according to the needs of the intervening governments?

Will Saville deny that governments now are surreptitiously trading most major markets? Will he deny their constant surreptitious and admitted trading in the gold market particularly? What does he suppose the objective of that trading is and has been? Will he dispute any document compiled here?:

http://www.gata.org/node/14839

Saville concludes that in recent years the gold price actually has been doing pretty well. "If gold has been subject to a long-term price suppression scheme," he writes, "the scheme has been totally unsuccessful."

But how can he be sure that, without the constant interventions against it by governments, and particularly without their underwriting, through gold leasing and swapping, the creation of vast supplies of imaginary "paper gold," gold wouldn't be priced far higher?

What first needs to be established about gold, before any judgment is made, is what governments are doing in the market and why. As much as he loves them, Saville's charts don't answer that question. Indeed, since he is a technical analyst who wouldn't have much to sell if the gold market was widely understood to be rigged, maybe that is why he loves his charts.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

* * *

Support GATA by purchasing DVDs of GATA's London conference in August 2011 or GATA's Dawson City conference in August 2006:

http://www.goldrush21.com/order.html

Or a colorful poster of GATA's full-page ad in The Wall Street Journal on January 31, 2009:

http://gata.org/node/wallstreetjournal

Help keep GATA going

GATA is a civil rights and educational organization based in the United States and tax-exempt under the U.S. Internal Revenue Code. Its e-mail dispatches are free, and you can subscribe at:

http://www.gata.org

To contribute to GATA, please visit:

http://www.gata.org/node/16

Fukushima Radiation Blamed for Spike in U.S. Sailor Deaths

Posted: 14 Jun 2016 06:40 PM PDT

by J. D. Heyes, Natural News:

The death and sickness toll for U.S. sailors who were aboard an American aircraft carrier sent to assist the Japanese government in the hours and days following the March 2011 meltdown of nuclear reactors at Fukushima is growing, with scores more continuing to come forward.

Japan’s Kyodo news agency is reporting that the Japanese former prime minister, Junichiro Koizumi, has lent his support to a group of about 400 U.S. sailors who have filed suit against the operator of the Fukushima No. 1 nuclear plant, claiming that the health problems they are currently suffering from were caused by being exposed to radiation following a triple meltdown at the plant.

Speaking recently at a news conference in Carlsbad, Calif., which he attended with a group of the plaintiffs, Koizumi noted: “Those who gave their all to assist Japan are now suffering from serious illness. I can’t overlook them.”

The suit was originally filed in 2012 against Tokyo Electric Power Co., the plant operator, which has recently been renamed the Tokyo Electric Power Company Holdings Inc. The plaintiffs include sailors and officers who were aboard the USS Ronald Reagan as it provided humanitarian and other assistance to Japanese officials following the damage to Fukushima, which was caused by a major tsunami that was launched following a massive earthquake.

During his California visit, Koizumi met with 10 of the plaintiffs in the suit. He asked them about the nature of the disaster relief they provided, and about the kinds of symptoms they were experiencing.

“I learned that the number of sick people is still increasing, and their symptoms are worsening,” he told the news conference, while also calling on Japanese – whether for and against nuclear power – to find ways to help the U.S. sailors.

Read More @ NaturalNews.com

Orlando shooter closely connected to US govt.: Ex-CIA contractor

Posted: 14 Jun 2016 06:00 PM PDT

Omar Mateen, the suspect in the Orlando nightclub shooting, was very closely connected to the US government, which is committing crimes on American soil using their own operatives, according to Steven D Kelley, a former NSA/CIA contractor. The Financial Armageddon Economic Collapse...

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RON PAUL: Global Dollar Rejection & Threats to Liberty

Posted: 14 Jun 2016 05:40 PM PDT

If Gold Price can Work Through $1,308, it Would be Scary - Markets Would be Saying Something REALLY Terrible Lies Just Ahead

Posted: 14 Jun 2016 04:55 PM PDT


14-Jun-16PriceChange% Change
Gold Price, $/oz1,285.601.200.09%
Silver Price, $/oz17.41-0.02-0.10%
Gold/Silver Ratio73.8430.1450.20%
Silver/Gold Ratio0.0135-0.0000-0.20%
Platinum971.50-23.40-2.35%
Palladium536.55-10.10-1.85%
S&P 5002,075.32-3.74-0.18%
Dow17,674.82-57.66-0.33%
Dow in GOLD $s284.20-1.19-0.42%
Dow in GOLD oz13.75-0.06-0.42%
Dow in SILVER oz1,015.21-2.26-0.22%
US Dollar Index95.07-0.21-0.22%

My friend WR pointed my attention today to the Volatility Index (VIX). Ponder the chart here, http://schrts.co/7EH0kS 

Volatility index measures investor confidence in stockd on a scale from smug (low) to demoralized terror (high). Like flocks of birds or schools of fish turning on a dime, the investor herd occasionally panics & runs for the cliffs. Note the red arrow on the chart, pointing to where the VIX gapped up last August, right before the VIX launched to the moon & the stock market tanked. It rose so sharply & fast that it punctured the top boundary of the 32 high/11.50 low range that had ruled since 2012. 

Then the pendulum swung back to complacency last November and December, but began creeping up as stocks fell off the cliff in January & February. VIX settled back into a low range of smugness. Whoops. Two days ago it shot higher, blowing past the 200 day moving average and not slowing down. 

The VIX's trajectory is warning that a stock plunge looms right ahead. Argue with a chart at your own peril. 

Here's the same chart with the S&P500 superimposed. Notice how the S&P500 falls into a manhole when the VIX shoots up. http://schrts.co/Prmbxo 

But y'all don't pay me no mind. I'm jes' a nat'ral born durn fool from Tennessee. How could I possibly notice anything them New York smarties missed? 

Stocks continued to submerge today, but aided by NGM friends right at 3:00 p.m. recovered a bit toward day's end. Dow lost 57.66 (0.33%) to 17,674.82. S&P500 backed down 0.18% (3.75) to 2,075.32. 
US dollar index finally found some spine and rose 65 basis points (0.69%) to 95.07. Wonder how that dollar will hold up when Brexit is passed & the S&P500 is tunneling toward the earth's core like some gigantic mutant mole? 

Technically that does put the dollar index up above its 50 & 20 day moving averages, that is, momentum is up. Yet the dollar is approaching the 95.50 area where it fainted & fell last time. 
Euro took the hit today, losing 0.75% to $1.1208. If the UK leaves the EU, the union will fly apart, sending whole countries flinging through the sky. 

Comex gold gained only $1.20 to $1,285.60 while the silver price backed off 1.8¢ to 1741. 

Gold traded from $1,278.60 to $1,293 today. It rose to a peak about 10:30, then sellers drove it back to $1,280 by 1:30. At least, that's what a daily chart shows, but it didn't feel that way. Every time gold dropped today, it bounded right back. Still, its rise slowed today, and it has reached the area of maximum resistance so it is slogging, maybe stopped. Frankly, if gold can work through this & clear $1,308, it would be scary. Markets would be saying something REALLY terrible lies just ahead. 

Silver has reached the sticky resistance, too. Up above the big hurdle is 1806¢.

Aurum et argentum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2016, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission. To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 18 ounces of silver.  US $ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.

Orlando Attack Reality Check: Next Time The Terrorists May Choose To Shoot Up A Church Or A School

Posted: 14 Jun 2016 04:40 PM PDT

by Michael Snyder, The Economic Collapse Blog:

Islamic terror can strike anywhere. On Sunday, it was a gay nightclub in Orlando called Pulse, but next time it might be a church or a school. In fact, it might be your church or your school. As you will see below, 29-year-old Omar Mateen actually scouted Walt Disney World as a potential target before finally settling on a gay nightclub. And not too long ago another Islamic terrorist had already made plans to shoot up a very large church in Detroit. It is high time that we all had a reality check when it comes to Islamic terror. The terrorists are not limiting themselves to just military and political targets. Their goal is to create fear and panic, and they want as much media attention on their acts of violence as possible. So if attacking a church or a school or a theme park will serve their purposes, then that is exactly what they are going to do.

The Director of the FBI says that Omar Mateen had "links to al-Qaida, Hezbollah, and the Islamic State", and ISIS has proudly taken responsibility for this attack

The ISIS-affiliated news agency Amaq News broadcast a claim of responsibility from ISIS for a shooting rampage at a gay nightclub in Orlando that left 50 people dead over the weekend.

The agency said the shooting was the work of an "ISIS fighter," multiple media outlets have reported.

But we aren't just fighting ISIS. According to Wikipedia, there have been hundreds of Islamic terror attacks worldwide so far in 2016, and only a small percentage of them have been conducted by ISIS.

Even if ISIS were totally destroyed tomorrow, the threat of Islamic terror would remain.

There are some people out there that are downplaying the significance of this attack because of the target. But the truth is that Mateen almost selected Walt Disney World as the target. The following comes from People Magazine

The gunman behind the Orlando nightclub shootings, the deadliest mass shooting in American history, recently scouted Walt Disney World as a potential target, a federal law enforcement source tells PEOPLE.

Omar Mateen and his wife, Noor Zahi Salman, visited Walt Disney World in April, the source says. Salman told federal authorities on Sunday that her husband had more recently been "scouting Downtown Disney and Pulse [nightclub] for attacks."

Unlike the four Disney World theme parks, Downtown Disney, which was recently renamed Disney Springs, doesn't have security and bag check before entry.

Could you imagine the carnage that kind of attack would have created?

Personally, I don't even want to think about it.

And as I mentioned above, not too long ago another Islamic radical had actually planned to shoot up a very large church in the heart of Detroit. 21-year-old Khalil Abu-Rayyan of Dearborn Heights, Michigan actually admitted to authorities that he had purchased a gun and had intended to take it into a church that can seat up to 6,000 people on a Sunday morning and start shooting.

Read More @ TheEconomicCollapseBlog.com

The Pensions Mess: Can Gold Help?

Posted: 14 Jun 2016 03:20 PM PDT

by Alasdair Macleod, GoldMoney:

The British have recently seen two unpleasant examples of the cost of pension fund deficits.

A deficit at British Steel, estimated to be about £485m, was followed by a deficit at British Home Stores of £571m. In both cases, pension fund deficits have scuppered corporate rescue plans, because understandably no buyer will take on these liabilities.

These two cases are the small tips of a very large iceberg, and reflect problems not just in Britain, but anywhere where pension schemes exist. They have been brewing for some considerable time, but have escalated as a direct consequence of central banking's monetary policies. They are a crisis whose cause is concealed not only from the pensioners, but from trustees and investment managers as well.

This article lays out the problem and its scale, so far as it is known, and notes that a pension fund that has a holding in gold is a very rare animal. Indeed, one of the best known examples, the Teacher Retirement System of Texas, holds less than 1% of its $130bn assets in gold.

A short recap of the industry's post-war development will give the pension issue its context, before commenting on the role gold can play. Pensions have existed for some time, but they really took off after the Second World War, driven by tax policy. Corporations were encouraged to set up pension funds for their workers, with employer and employee contributions being tax deductible.

From a government's point of view, the tax relief granted cost little in terms of current expenditure, because it replaced the tax income forgone from corporations and employees, with deficit funding through bond markets. Furthermore, the demand for government bonds from accumulating pensions meant that there would always be demand for government debt, and interest paid would be less than otherwise. While governments have generally increased taxes on savings, pension schemes have been encouraged. They have become a material component in the financial system, and the only savings channel encouraged by governments.

In setting up a pension fund, the advising actuaries would have taken all variables into account. Of the many variables, the principal ones are the period of employment required for a full pension, the life expectancies of the scheme members, and the expected return on investments.

We are all aware that pensioners live longer, and that life expectancies have generally been underestimated. This has certainly been a problem. Some countries have responded by raising the retirement age. It is also obvious that rising or falling bond and stock markets have a direct impact on portfolio valuations. However, investment returns in the early days were relatively simple to calculate: they would be the average gross yield to redemption of the bonds that comprised the whole fund. These were mostly government and municipal bonds, and therefore unlikely to default. Bond prices didn't matter, because they were nearly always held to final redemption at par.

That was fine, until portfolio managers began to explore other investment possibilities in the 1960s. Portfolio allocations started to migrate from low-risk government debt and high-quality corporate bonds, into blue-chip equities. This was the era of the nifty-fifty, and diversification was rewarded with enhanced capital returns over the redemption yield on government bonds. The seventies were somewhat different, with portfolio losses mounting on equities in the savage 1972-74 bear market, but compensation was found in the compounding effect of higher bond yields, which still comprised the dominant portfolio allocation. And we still haven't mentioned on the most significant factor.

Increasing bond yields over the seventies decade benefited pensions because they allowed actuaries to sign off on lower amounts of capital required to cover pension obligations. This is because the capital required to fund a given income stream is lower when interest and dividends accrue at a high rate of interest, compared with when it accrues a lower rate. For example, an annual commitment to pay pensioners $100m from a portfolio yielding 10% requires it to have a minimum invested value of $1,000m. But a portfolio yielding only 5% has to be worth at least $2,000m to cover the same payment obligation. This is why the assessment of future returns is the most volatile component, leading to unexpected surpluses and deficits as reality unfolds.

Obviously, pension funds which are invested in high quality bonds produce a reasonably certain return, because they are held to maturity, so gross redemption yields are what matter. Equities used to be valued on dividend payments, originally yielding more than government bonds, reflecting their credit risk. That changed in the late 1950s, when portfolio managers began to take a different view, attracted by the potential that equities offered for capital gain. And over time, the potential for returns on equity investments even came to be defined as total returns, de-emphasising the dividend element.

Consequently, actuaries were progressively forced to move from the certain world of gross redemption yields into the uncertain world of guessing future returns on equities. By the 1990s many pension funds, faced with declining bond yields, were increasing their allocations in equities, property and even alternative investments such as art, to the point where bonds were often a minor component of pension portfolios. Inherently speculative capital gains on investments were generating valuation surpluses large enough to allow companies to take contribution holidays.

The outperformance of equities drove the shift from bonds to equities. This is illustrated in the chart below, which clearly shows why over the long term, allocations in favour of bonds have decreased, while allocations in favour of equities have increased.

Read More @ GoldMoney.com

Leo Zagami speaks on the true nature of Radical Islam and repressed homosexuality

Posted: 14 Jun 2016 02:30 PM PDT

Leo Zagami is never politically correct. He speaks uncensored about his theory on the attack in Orlando. The Financial Armageddon Economic Collapse Blog tracks trends and forecasts , futurists , visionaries , free investigative journalists , researchers , Whistelblowers , truthers and...

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American talk about his experience with Islam

Posted: 14 Jun 2016 02:00 PM PDT

American talk about his experience with Islam The Financial Armageddon Economic Collapse Blog tracks trends and forecasts , futurists , visionaries , free investigative journalists , researchers , Whistelblowers , truthers and many more

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Fed props up stocks but metals are staying strong, Embry tells KWN

Posted: 14 Jun 2016 01:29 PM PDT

4:30p ET Tuesday, June 14, 2016

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Sprott Asset Management's John Embry tells King World News today that the Federal Reserve and its agents are striving to prop up the stock market even as indications of recession are increasing. Embry adds that gold and silver are showing strength against the usual efforts at price suppression and that the defeat of the price-suppression scheme is growing closer. An excerpt from the interview is posted at KWN here:

http://kingworldnews.com/50-year-veteran-says-the-future-is-frightening-...

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org



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Support GATA by purchasing recordings of the proceedings of the 2014 New Orleans Investment Conference:

https://jeffersoncompanies.com/landing/2014-av-powell

Or by purchasing DVDs of GATA's London conference in August 2011 or GATA's Dawson City conference in August 2006:

http://www.goldrush21.com/order.html

Or a colorful poster of GATA's full-page ad in The Wall Street Journal on January 31, 2009:

http://gata.org/node/wallstreetjournal

Help keep GATA going

GATA is a civil rights and educational organization based in the United States and tax-exempt under the U.S. Internal Revenue Code. Its e-mail dispatches are free, and you can subscribe at:

http://www.gata.org

To contribute to GATA, please visit:

http://www.gata.org/node/16

Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts - FOMC Tomorrow - The Gathering Storm

Posted: 14 Jun 2016 01:14 PM PDT

“This Market is Ready to Blow…”

Posted: 14 Jun 2016 01:13 PM PDT

This post “This Market is Ready to Blow…” appeared first on Daily Reckoning.

ST. MICHAELS, Maryland – The flag in front of our hotel flies at half-mast.

The little town of St. Michaels is a tourist and conference destination on the Chesapeake Bay. It is far from Orlando… and even farther from Daesh (a.k.a. ISIL) and the Mideast.

Out on the river, a sleek sailboat, with lacquered wood trim, glides by, making hardly a ripple on the water. Other boats are moored. There is scarcely a sound… except for a bell in town that chimes on the quarter hour.

We are staying two days. But we could happily remain longer and get to know the particularities of the place. What food do they eat here? What do they worry about? What stories do they tell each other?

We will come back to that in a moment. First, a look at the markets…

Bold Prediction

The Dow sold off yesterday. It fell 132 points or just under 1%.

As we pointed out yesterday, there are many reasons to believe stocks will go down… and few reasons to think they won't.

A dear reader wrote to remind us that if you did the GDP statistics the way they did them during the Reagan administration, you'd see that the U.S. economy has been in a depression for the last 15 years.

You wouldn't expect stocks to trade at record highs after 15 years of depression. But we're getting used to weird and whacky things in the financial markets; who would have thought that people would ever pay for the privilege of lending money to bankrupt governments?

And yet, here we are, in the year 2016, with $10 trillion of government debt already trading at negative yields… and yields continuing to fall. And who would have imagined that we would live for more than seven years with the Fed's key interest rate at an emergency zero level?

Maybe this time it really is different. Maybe, in the future, you will never earn any interest lending money to the government. And maybe, going forward, candidates for president will always be hucksters and hacks.

Yes, and in the stock market, perhaps the old pattern – up, down, up, down – that has held for as long, no longer applies.

"I will make a bold prediction," says our old friend Doug Casey at Casey Research.

"I know I've been saying for a long time that this market is ready to blow up. But I'll say it again. It is. And it will happen before the end of this year."

But wait… a word of explanation…

We recently decided to invest – heavily – in colleague Chris Mayer's stock picks. We do so realizing that the most likely direction for the overall stock market over the short term is down, not up.

But as Chris likes to point out to his Bonner Private Portfolio subscribers, stocks are more than just ticker symbols. He doesn't invest in "the stock market." He buys ownership stakes, at reasonable prices, in businesses that won't wilt in a recession. At least, we can hope! Besides, we're investing for the next generation… willing to wait through a 20-year drought before we get another good soak.

Now, back to the Chesapeake…

Out of Step

Maryland's Eastern Shore is very different from the rest of the state… and the rest of the country.

Its fertile, flat fields… and ready access to the Chesapeake Bay… made it a prosperous farming area, beginning in the 17th century.

The large farms, usually worked by slaves, were separated from Annapolis and Baltimore by the bay, leaving the area with its own conservative, and backward-leaning, culture.

When the colonies announced they were rebelling against George III, the Eastern Shore remained loyal. The planters here had no quarrel with the British. Most of them were themselves British… proud of their heritage… and eager to retain ties with the homeland.

So, as the rest of the nation celebrated independence, the Eastern Shore counties drew their curtains in silence and lit candles.

Come the War Between the States, and the Eastern Shore was out of step again.

It's difficult for a man to see something when his wealth depends on not seeing it. Already, in most of Maryland, slavery was being given up. Not that the Marylanders on the west side of the bay were any more ethical, but they could see that slavery no longer paid. It was too easy for slaves to escape to the North.

The Eastern Shore was more isolated, making it harder for slaves to get away. And its field crops could be worked profitably by forced labor.

Flag of the Conquerors

In the mid-19th century, proposals were entertained in the state capital, Annapolis, for the Eastern Shore to secede from the rest of the state.

But the state held together, with divided loyalties and most of the young men left to join the Confederate cause.

In fact, the last soldiers to surrender – those accompanying the president of the Confederacy, Jefferson Davis, in his flight to Florida – were from Maryland's Eastern Shore.

The "shore" remained cutoff until the Bay Bridge was built in 1952. (We have a vague memory of crossing the bay on a ferry, just as the bridge was being built. It was an adventure and a delight! Then, the bridge ruined the area. Now, it is little different from the rest of the state… with Chick-fil-As and Walmarts and long lines of traffic to and from the Atlantic beaches.)

And today it is not the Talbot County flag flying at half-mast. It is not even the flag of the sovereign state of Maryland. It is the Stars and Stripes… the flag of Lincoln, Sherman, Hillary, and that rascal husband of hers. It's now the flag of the gentle of Maryland's Eastern Shore… it's the flag of the conquerors… of a vast government with outposts all over the world.

At home, the U.S. covers an expanse of mountains, deserts, richly watered deltas, uplands, lowlands, borderlands, cold places, hot places, every kind of place you could want.

From "sea to shining sea," the country is inhabited by all manner of people. "Americans" include Italians, Native Americans, Kurds, Russians, Japanese, Scots, Irish, Vietnamese, West Africans, Mexicans, Cubans, Guatemalans, Indians, Chinese, Germans, Swedes – you name it.

You can't even ask the questions: What do they think? What food do they eat? What do they do? You will get millions of different answers.

And the more you ask, the less you will know. What is an "American"?

And the more you see of it, the less you know what the country looks likes. There are no particularities to hang onto… to have and to hold… to develop a genuine affection for.

The U.S. is too big… too varied… too much of everything. You can't fix a single view of it, even in your mind. For there is always some other part at odds with it.

You can't get attached to its people either; there are too many of them of too many different kinds. You can appreciate them – but in the abstract, not in the particular. It's the difference between liking women… and being married to one.

But now our problems, challenges, and discontents are big. They are national and international.

We cannot see them. We cannot understand them. Instead, we draw their measure from the news media… based on a flag that flutters and sags, depending on which way the wind is blowing.

Regards,

Bill Bonner
for Bonner and Partners

P.S. Another dollar crisis is coming. It's not a question of if, but when. And gold could soar to record levels when it strikes. If you own gold beforehand, you can preserve – and grow – your wealth. That's why we've produced a FREE special report called The 5 Best Ways to Own Gold. Don't buy any gold until you read it. We'll send you your report when you sign up for the free daily email edition of The Daily Reckoning. Every day you'll get an independent, penetrating and irreverent perspective on the worlds of finance and politics. And most importantly, how they fit together. Click here now to sign up for FREE and claim your special report.

The post “This Market is Ready to Blow…” appeared first on Daily Reckoning.

OBAMA IS ON THE SIDE OF THE TERRORISTS!

Posted: 14 Jun 2016 12:45 PM PDT

The Orlando shooting gave trump plenty of ammo, pun intended, to rip into Obama and Hillary.. Political correctness needs to be destroyed. The Financial Armageddon Economic Collapse Blog tracks trends and forecasts , futurists , visionaries , free investigative journalists , researchers ,...

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Harry Dent: Global Economic Collapse is Near 2016 - 2017

Posted: 14 Jun 2016 12:30 PM PDT

br /> The governments' need to inflate its way out of the debt hole it's sinking deeper into every day is just another driver of the change to come. Harry S. Dent Harry S. Dent Jr. The Great Depression Ahead Harry S. Dent, Jr. is the Founder and President of the H. S. Dent Foundation,...

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Is Gold-to-Silver Ratio Too High?

Posted: 14 Jun 2016 12:25 PM PDT

The gold-to-silver-ratio is an indicator that shows how many silver ounces are required to purchase an ounce of gold. The gold-to-silver ratio is one of the most important parameters in the precious metals market, as it measures the relative value of gold and silver. Therefore, it is a useful tool indicating whether gold or silver is undervalued or overvalued relative to each other. Investors can use the ratio as a timing indicator deciding when to buy gold or silver, or which metal to buy at any given time. When the ratio is low, it means that silver is overvalued relative to gold (and vice versa).

BREAKING: "Texas Walmart Active Shooting"

Posted: 14 Jun 2016 11:45 AM PDT

Amarillo Texas shooting at Walmart the shooter has just been shot dead in a green Toyota car was found registered to Mohammed something multiple casualties don't know how many are dead or wounded The Financial Armageddon Economic Collapse Blog tracks trends and forecasts , futurists ,...

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Breaking. Orlando Shooters Omar Mateens Wife knew about Attack ahead of time

Posted: 14 Jun 2016 11:30 AM PDT

About 50 people were killed last night by Omar Mateen, a U.S. citizen born to Afghan parents suspected to have "leanings toward extreme Islamic ideologies." The FBI is investigating the attack as a "domestic terror incident." The Financial Armageddon Economic Collapse Blog tracks trends...

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TF Metals Report: The latest bank participation report

Posted: 14 Jun 2016 11:08 AM PDT

2:07p ET Tuesday, June 14, 2016

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

The TF Metals Report's Turd Ferguson today updates the latest U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission report on the gold futures market positioning of bullion banks, notes that they are again hugely short, and complains that this signifies market manipulation rather than legitimate hedging. Ferguson's analysis is headlined "The Latest Bank Participation Report" and it's posted at the TF Metals Report here:

http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/blog/7675/latest-bank-participation-report

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org



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#VoteLeave EU Referendum Explained

Posted: 14 Jun 2016 11:00 AM PDT

Leave the EU. Please. Kickstart the end of this shit, only if Britain does leave will France be able to leave as well. And we fucking need it. #VoteLeave. The Financial Armageddon Economic Collapse Blog tracks trends and forecasts , futurists , visionaries , free investigative...

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BREXIT Fears Overtake the Markets

Posted: 14 Jun 2016 10:29 AM PDT

This post BREXIT Fears Overtake the Markets appeared first on Daily Reckoning.

And now… today's Pfennig for your thoughts…

Good day… And a Tom terrific Tuesday to you!

Well, we're waiting for some very BIG NEWS this morning from the Morgan Stanley Capital Index, which is also known simply as MSCI. The MSCI is going to announce tomorrow whether or not they will add Chinese stocks to their MSCI Index. More on that after we get through the introductions!

Well, it's one of those old days that we used to call "risk off" days, where the dollar holds the conn against just about everything out there, with one exception; Japanese yen. The one currency, that fundamentally, should be getting sold down the river, instead is the one currency that has a gain vs. the dollar this morning.

What on earth would cause dollar traders to be taking all sellers and marking up the dollar this morning? It can all be said with one made up word – BREXIT. The "leave the EU vote" is really gaining momentum at this point, and with only nine days left until the referendum (6/23), things are looking like this could go all bad for pound sterling, and for that matter, the "risk assets" because IF the leave vote wins, a flight to safety will be the knee-jerk reaction, and with every poll showing the leave vote in front, the more fear is put into the market.

That would mean the fear assets, like gold, silver, and U.S. Treasuries would be bid higher, and they were yesterday, as gold gained $10.50 on the day, while the 10-year U.S. Treasury's yield fell below 1.60%. That's right, 10-year yields are below 1.60%. But wait! That's not all! The yield on the German 10-year Bund fell below zero overnight. So, now we can add German Bunds to the list of government bonds that have yields below zero.

It's all craziness folks, and I suggest we sit this out, and watch it all unfold… I'm just freaked out by all these negative yields around the world, it's not going to end with everyone happy either!

So, the dollar has the conn today, ahead of the start of the FOMC (Fed) Meeting that will culminate with a rate decision tomorrow afternoon. I don't know of anyone in the markets that still believe that the Fed will hike this month, and that's a scary thing, don't you agree? Think about it… The Fed could really throw a spanner in the works by surprising the markets with a rate hike! But I don't believe they will, for this could really unravel things with a force that we haven't seen in a while…

Gold gained $10.50 yesterday, but is giving back $3 of that gain in the early morning trading today. I don't know who would be selling gold right now given the "fear in the markets" that resides right now, but someone is, and hopefully they are doing so with a huge gain! But is that what buying gold is all about? Buy it, and when it goes up, sell it? Well, to traders that might be the case, but to real investors, the thing here is to buy Gold, put it in your investment portfolio and forget about it. Like those old commercials: Set it… And forget it!

I have silver that I bought for my, then, two kids in the 80's… Never sold it, and don't intend to, unless push comes to shove in the world, and paper currencies are no longer accepted. But then that's Armageddon stuff, and I get in trouble when I write about that happening. So, let's just keep it at that, and everyone will be happy.

OK, back to the MSCI… Years ago, when the dollar was still the king of the castle, (2001) I wrote in the Pfennig about how the MSCI was looking to add pound sterling to its mix of currencies, and that this move could be HUGE for pound sterling. Our Investment guru for the bank at that time, Chris Lissner, told me to cool it on that kind of talk, as what would happen if the MSCI didn't add pound sterling. Hmmm, I thought… And then said, but what if they do? And we agreed to disagree…

So fast forward to today, and the announcement that the markets are waiting for that's due tomorrow morning Hong Kong Time, from the MSCI, on whether or not they will add Chinese stocks to their mix. Talk about HUGE potential boost for the worst performing stock market of the last 12 months… The Shanghai Composite index has fallen 45% in the past 12 months!

The MSCI was started in 1968, so it's not new, and has been around for a long time, and is used as the base for exchange traded funds (ETF's). That means the ETF duplicates the index's stock holdings. So, there is a lot of fuss around this announcement tomorrow morning, which will come in the middle of the night for us here in the U.S. So, tomorrow morning when you wake up, the announcement will have been made, and everyone will be getting ready for the FOMC announcement later in the day.

The Chinese didn't see this upcoming announcement as any reason they should stop their nightly depreciations of the renminbi, and marked the renminbi down in the overnight fixing. But then why would they go against the grain when all the other currencies, except yen, are losing ground vs. the dollar? And what makes the yen's stronger move overnight even more impressive or questionable, I can't decide right now, is that the ratings agency, Fitch, downgraded Japan's Credit Rating to Negative, but the markets just shrugged that news of like water off a duck's back!

Are they crazy, these yen buyers? Well, if it's only for short-term gratification, then I guess not, because no amount of ratings downgrades are going to stop the short-term traders from front running the Bank of Japan (BOJ) and their long awaited new stimulus. I just shake my head in disgust with this buying, and the reason, and the short-term trading to begin with!

The U.S. Data Cupboard finally has something for us today. May Retail Sales will print, and like I told you yesterday, the BHI indicates that it will be positive, but barely, and certainly nothing like the April blowout number of 1.3% (I wonder if that will be revised downward?). Not much else is there today, third tier data at best.

If we did get another blowout number for Retail Sales in May, the Fed members would be questioning Janet Yellen about her pending decision to keep rates unchanged, tomorrow. But I don't think we'll see another blowout, so the Fed members can get back to their board games… Oh, no! I have to go directly to jail, and not pass Go, or collect $200!

I wanted to share with you something that my friend, David Gonigam, over at the 5 Minute Forecast (the 5) had in his email letter yesterday. It's James Rickards going over the three things that Central Banks could still do to achieve their goal of inflating their economies. They've tried zero rates, bond buying, and now negative rates, and nothing has worked… But Rickards thinks these three would work, and believes we could see Central Banks heading in these directions soon.

So this will be the FWIW section today, as I get this from the www.agorafinancial.com site, where if you subscribe to one of the excellent newsletters they offer, you can then get the 5 each day. I've told you this before, I don't miss a day of the 5!

So, here goes! The first item is "helicopter money":

‘Helicopter money results when governments run larger deficits and central banks print the money to cover the deficits,’ Jim explains. ‘Central banks have been printing money since 2008. The problem is banks won't lend it and people won't spend it.’

‘Helicopter money cuts out the middleman. Governments just borrow and spend the money directly without waiting for the banking system to do the job. Central banks pick up the tab.’

The second item is Special Drawing Rights or SDR's…

‘The one advantage of SDRs is that very few people understand them,’ says Jim, ‘and there's no political accountability. SDRs can work hand in hand with helicopter money.

‘If governments want to spend more but legislatures won't let them, the IMF can hand out SDRs, and governments can spend those without waiting for their own legislatures to act. The IMF acts like the 'central bank of the world,' and no one can stop them.’

And the 3rd item is Simply raise the price of Gold…

‘A higher dollar price for gold is practically the definition of inflation,’ Jim tells us. ‘Governments can do this in a heartbeat. The Fed would just declare the price of gold to be, say, $5,000 an ounce and make the price stick using the gold in Fort Knox and their printing press to maintain a two-way market.’

‘The Fed could sell gold when it hits $5,050 an ounce and buy gold when it hits $4,950 an ounce. That's a 1% band around the target price of $5,000 an ounce. The band and the use of physical gold will make the target price stick.

‘A higher price for gold is the same as a lower value for the dollar. The world of $5,000-per-ounce gold also means $10 per gallon gas at the pump and $40 for a movie ticket.’

Boom — there's your inflation.

Chuck again… I thank David Gonigam again for getting this to me, and now to you dear reader! I have to tell you I see the SDR's thing being at the top of the list for Central Banks… but If it were my list, I would have the raising the price of gold as number one! But think about that, folks. If inflation warrants $5,000 gold price, then everything around us would be much higher priced. And would mean if you want protection against that kind of inflation the only answer is to own physical gold (and silver of course!).

That's it for today. With that, I get this out the door, and hope you have a Tom terrific Tuesday. Be good to yourself!

Regards,

Chuck Butler
for The Daily Pfennig

P.S. Have you thought about investing in gold but don't know the best way to do it? Then you need to see the FREE special report we've produced called The 5 Best Ways to Own Gold. It answers all the questions you have. We'll send you your report immediately when you sign up for the free daily email edition of The Daily Reckoning. It combines hard-hitting information with charm and wit to bring you a unique perspective on the world. Click here now to sign up for FREE and claim your special report.

The post BREXIT Fears Overtake the Markets appeared first on Daily Reckoning.

Brexit gold rush to generate £10m in a single day for online bullion dealer

Posted: 14 Jun 2016 09:44 AM PDT

This posting includes an audio/video/photo media file: Download Now

The Royal Mint Joins SIPP Gold Offers

Posted: 14 Jun 2016 08:54 AM PDT

Bullion Vault

City ‘as much to blame’ for UK oil crisis as market collapse, says Investec

Posted: 14 Jun 2016 08:41 AM PDT

This posting includes an audio/video/photo media file: Download Now

Real News : Why is the Orlando Shooter Branded as a Muslim Instead of a Homophobe?

Posted: 14 Jun 2016 08:30 AM PDT

Yasmin Nair says we need to go behind discussions of love and understanding, think critically about hate-crime legislation, and consider the role of U.S. wars The Financial Armageddon Economic Collapse Blog tracks trends and forecasts , futurists , visionaries , free investigative...

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This $26 Billion Deal Killed Social Media Stocks. Here’s How to Play it…

Posted: 14 Jun 2016 07:44 AM PDT

This post This $26 Billion Deal Killed Social Media Stocks. Here’s How to Play it… appeared first on Daily Reckoning.

Microsoft just fired off a $26 billion rocket that has all but destroyed the ailing social media space…

The software giant plunked down $26.2 billion to acquire LinkedIn, the annoyingly pushy "professional network" where work acquaintances beg you to add them to your list of business buddies.

The biggest social media purchase in recent memory set off a shockwave of excitement across the markets. Sympathy moves from other troubled social media stocks like Twitter and Yelp sprung up. The bag holders are already licking their chops over more buyouts that might never materialize. If LinkedIn can get bought out for a premium of nearly 50%, then they also have a chance, right?

Let's take a moment to cut through the hype…

Not too long ago, you had to cough up nearly $260 to buy one share of LinkedIn. Shares were below $135 as of Friday afternoon. Microsoft's generous buyout still leaves LinkedIn negative on the year thanks to its February earnings miss meltdown.

"[The] LinkedIn sale is not liberation," Wall Street Journal Financial editor Dennis Berman tweeted. "It is capitulation."

The deal also failed to impress Microsoft shareholders. By midday, the stock was down 3%, placing shares dangerously close to their February lows.

Other reactions across the internet were equally skeptical of the deal and what it means for the industry…

Paperclip

RampCapital

As ridiculous as this LinkedIn debacle has been, it didn't stop the rumor mill from temporarily spiking the shares of almost every social media stock on the market yesterday morning. Twitter shares jumped off their lows as some pundits guessed they're actively looking for a suitor (perhaps Google?). Even bottom feeder Yelp spiked in premarket trade before getting smashed back into the red by the end of the trading day…

Of course, these are social media's stepchildren. They're desperate for table scraps to help prop up their flagging share prices.

What about the Big Kahuna?

I'm talking about Facebook…

Unlike LinkedIn and Twitter, Facebook shares have steadily trended higher as the company continues to blow away expectations. Back in April, Facebook reported earnings that were an eye-popping 10% better than the highest estimate of 41 Wall Street analysts.

While Twitter circles the drain, Facebook is building a massive social media empire. The company is excelling in virtually every metric, from growing monthly average users to mobile advertising, which accounted for an enormous 82% of the company's total ad revenue last quarter.

But that's not stopping folks from hopping off the Facebook bandwagon right now. Famed short seller Andrew Left from Citron Research announced yesterday that he's betting against social media's golden child. Left claims Facebook is losing relevance and it will not be a $330 behemoth 12 months from now…

Left's timing is no coincidence. Thanks to the Microsoft deal and continued market weakness, Facebook shares look vulnerable. One more push and this stock could fall right off a cliff…

The slip below $116 kills all of Facebook's recent momentum. After yesterday's break, we can expect lower prices in the weeks to come.

While I still think Facebook is a great company, the Microsoft deal and Left's announcement have quickly soured investors to anything related to social media. We don't want to stick around for what might happen next…

Sincerely,

Greg Guenthner
for The Daily Reckoning

P.S. Make money in ANY market — sign up for my Rude Awakening e-letter, for FREE, right here. Stop missing out on the next big trend. Click here now to sign up for FREE.

The post This $26 Billion Deal Killed Social Media Stocks. Here’s How to Play it… appeared first on Daily Reckoning.

Gold Stocks Ultimate Objective in a World of Monetary Transition

Posted: 14 Jun 2016 04:32 AM PDT

Gold Tenters: Here is my study of where gold stock prices are headed over the next 10 years. I regard it as rather epic. You have seen gold bugs bloviate about pie in the sky numbers, however I am trying to do legit analysis to come up with a process which justifies an actual price objective. I encourage your feedback before I publish , consider it your weekend reading- Plunger

Stock Market, Gold Miners Forecasts Update

Posted: 14 Jun 2016 04:24 AM PDT

I had an alternate I posted a few weeks ago that suggested that the S&P 500 would fall to 1995/96 by June 17, then rally strongly into month’s end.  Today’s market action suggests that the alternate is the likely choice going forward.

Breaking News And Best Of The Web

Posted: 13 Jun 2016 06:20 PM PDT

Orlando shooting shocks the world. Soros and Gross turn bearish. Stocks fall, gold continues to rise. Debt, as usual, continues to grow. Corporations start selling zero-percent bonds. Warren backs Clinton, attacks Trump. Global bond yields still falling, China’s debt still rising.   Best Of The Web What went wrong? – David Rosenberg Weekly commentary: Historic […]

The post Breaking News And Best Of The Web appeared first on DollarCollapse.com.

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