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Wednesday, May 4, 2016

Gold World News Flash

Gold World News Flash


Here’s How Gov’t Housing Vouchers End Up Causing More Poverty

Posted: 03 May 2016 10:00 PM PDT

from The Burning Platform:

Federal officials spend more tax dollars on Section 8 housing vouchers than they do on cash welfare, and the program often perpetuates poverty rather than alleviating it, according to an urban housing expert.

"Its incentives are completely skewed," Howard Husock, vice president for policy research and director of the Social Entrepreneurship Initiative at the Manhattan Institute, told The Daily Caller News Foundation.

"You've 'hit the lottery' and you're set for life," said Husock, referring to those who receive housing assistance for decades, a lifetime or even generations, while others wait for years on a waiting list. "Not only do you hit the lottery and you can sit back and have a housing unit for life, but remember, your deal is you pay 30 percent of your income in rent, but what it means is for every additional dollar you earn, you pay an addition 30 cents in rent," he said.


image/sites.ed.gov

Voucher recipients pay 30 percent of their income in rent no matter how much they earn, which stifles motivation to earn more, Husock said. Federal housing assistance, unlike the five-year cap imposed on welfare benefits in 1995, has no time limit. Husock, author of, "America's Trillion-Dollar Housing Mistake: The Failure of America's Housing Policy," calls it "welfare unreformed."

The Department of Housing and Urban Development paid $18 billion in vouchers, not including associated costs, in fiscal year 2014, versus the $16.5 billion the Department of Health and Human Services spent on cash welfare the same year.

Housing vouchers began in the 1970s, hailed by liberals as an additional way to help the poorest, and by Republicans as a semi-free market alternative to public housing. But that attempt at reform backfired, Husock said, ultimately creating a system in which landlords and housing authorities have no incentive to cut costs or make sure tenants meet income requirements, and residents have an incentive to keep their financial situation stagnant.

Many of the wait lists in America's more than 3,000 local housing authorities are so long that they're closed to new applicants. Voucher tenants receive assistance for nine years on average, according to HUD.

Read More @ TheBurningPlatform.com

Have You Been Damaged By the Manipulation Of Gold And Silver ?

Posted: 03 May 2016 09:38 PM PDT

Dear CIGAs, I have been exploring and analyzing the present and proposed litigation of Gold and Silver Precious Metals (PMs). I have reached some conclusions and want to share my views and offer you an important opportunity to join with me to address this problem in a never before used litigation approach. Are you a... Read more »

The post Have You Been Damaged By the Manipulation Of Gold And Silver ? appeared first on Jim Sinclair's Mineset.

Have You Been Damaged By Precious Metals Manipulation? Jim Sinclair Presents Revolutionary Litigation Framework

Posted: 03 May 2016 09:17 PM PDT

by Jim Sinclair, via Silver Doctors:

I believe after careful consideration, we have found the structure and method of winning in litigation against market manipulators. Billions of dollars are a potential recovery in this never before applied legal framework.

I offer you an important opportunity to join with me to address this problem in a never before used litigation approach…

I have been exploring and analyzing the present and proposed litigation of Gold and Silver Precious Metals (PMs). I have reached some conclusions and want to share my views and offer you an important opportunity to join with me to address this problem in a never before used litigation approach.

Are you a PM share investor? … A PM producer? … A company whose business was injured as a result of the manipulation and suppression of the price of Gold or Silver? If so, please email me as soon as possible, and provide contact information for me to confer with you. If your entity meets the above criteria, I will speak with you personally as soon as possible.

I have investigated Class Action Suits, and other conventional causes of action. I have not been satisfied by my findings. We not only need a cause of action, we need a prevailing case. We need a winning plan of action, not just another law suit on top of the heap of other emerging law suits.

After analyzing, investigating and brain storming with various legal counsel, a Class Action Suit doesn't seem to be the best strategy or tactic for recovering from the market rigging of PMs. It seems apparent that Class Action Suits have too many drawbacks. After careful research, I believe Class Action Suits for redress of PM manipulation will fail due to many of the drawbacks.

Some of the drawbacks are:

  1. Even if successful, the classes may be so large that very little is ultimately returned to the plaintiffs in a settlement.
  2. Class Actions are long, protracted litigation and assets of the defendants may evaporate long before settlement. Class action suits can take a decade to resolve.
  3. Many Class Actions are framed inaccurately regarding who is eligible to be a member of the Class.
  4. The definition of eligibility for Class standing may be too broad and encompass too many plaintiffs.
  5. Many Class actions initially fail in Summary Judgment.
  6. Class Action complaints may be ill-presented and not truly representative of all members of the Class since often some, but not all issues apply to the entire class. This is too cumbersome.
  7. The costs of a Class Action are prohibitively high.
  8. Not all Class Action witnesses represent all members of the Class, or all issues.  Often, witnesses are too academic rather than factual (evidentiary) or probative of actual damages.

The above are just some of the drawbacks to Class Action Suits. We do not choose a Class Action Suit for the above reasons. We plan to win so a winning structure to litigation is fundamentally important to a positive and successful outcome.

I believe after careful consideration, we have found the structure and method of winning in litigation against market manipulators. If you are an executive, decision-making officer of a PM producer, or in the process of becoming a PM producer, or an otherwise already operating entity in the production of PMs, and have damages due to the rigged manipulation of the PMs markets, please email me. I welcome your email and will reach out to you. Your entity can be operating anywhere in the world. I am not proposing a Class Action Suit, but we need each other for our mutual benefit in this litigation. I am happy to reach out to parties who have been financially injured and may be interested in participating with us in this dynamic, never before applied litigation strategy.

No money is being asked of you. We are not soliciting funds to finance litigation, and we will not solicit litigation financing from you during the litigation process. This is a contingent fee litigation, which means legal counsel and expenses for litigation are paid, and only paid when we win.

A few moments of time can determine our mutual needs, desires and benefits. Due to the manipulation which suppressed PM prices, we producers and those becoming producers have been significantly damaged. We need to overcome the apathy this suppression of the PM price has created in the producer's industry. We need to overcome the inertia these suppressed PM prices have created and move forward to recover our damages. We need to act as expeditiously as possible.

Once interested parties are on board, we will arrange a conference call with legal counsel. Our legal counsel will present the revolutionary framework for our successful litigation against those who have manipulated the price of PMs and financially harmed us due to their actions.

For our JSMineset readers, I request that you urge the production entities you are involved with to discuss this important opportunity with me. Together we can make the difference. Speak with the decision makers of the companies you are invested with and urge them to contact me if I have not already reached out to them. In these matters, bigger is better. Your influence can help and support this cause, and will make the difference. Urge the companies you are invested with to send an email to me and provide a phone number for contact. Do you want all of your losses and damages back? I do! Wake up your company and ask them to have their decision-making representative email me so we can arrange a conference. Because neither you nor your company will recover your damages and losses by just hoping, we must act. Time is short for this window of opportunity.  You have the power. Talk with your companies and take action by asking them to email me.

This opportunity will not last long. The window of opportunity will close quickly. Billions of dollars are a potential recovery in this never before applied legal framework. Your PM companies need to join us. Please urge your PM company to email me at TRECEO108@gmail.com. We are in this together, and we are in it to win it.

Best Regards,
Jim Sinclair
JSmineset.com

Jim’s Mailbox

Posted: 03 May 2016 08:16 PM PDT

Jim/Bill, Can someone enlighten me, please. Euro traded up, with 1.16 handle overnight Yen traded up, with 105 handle overnight. Although the Aussie Dollar got hit, it didn’t affect those currencies. Gold traded again over $1,300. DXY broke 93 support and traded at 92.40. This is all VERY bullish for gold and silver. Then NY... Read more »

The post Jim’s Mailbox appeared first on Jim Sinclair's Mineset.

US Futures Tumble After China Devalues Yuan By Most Since August Collapse

Posted: 03 May 2016 07:30 PM PDT

The 'odd' regime shift in the relationship between USDJPY and US equities continues overnight. Following some visible-handedness and follow-through momentum, Yen is weakening against the USD - normally a big flashing green sign for risk-on pajama traders but China's biggest Yuan devaluation in 9 months (since the August turmoil) seems to have stolen the jam out of the bull's donut as US equity futures extend losses, AsiaPac credit risk jumps, and USD strength is weighing on crude prices.

China sent another strong message tonight...

 

Weighing on US equities...

 

Despite Yen weakness...

ECB Study says US data 'leaked' to key traders

Posted: 03 May 2016 07:22 PM PDT

Apparently, Europeans need to do 'studies' to show that markets are rigged.  See the study here.  In Summary:

We examine stock index and Treasury futures markets around releases of U.S.
macroeconomic announcements. Seven out of 21 market-moving announcements
show evidence of substantial informed trading before the official release time. Prices
begin to move in the "correct" direction about 30 minutes before the release time.
The pre-announcement price drift accounts on average for about half of the total
price adjustment. These results imply that some traders have private information
about macroeconomic fundamentals. The evidence suggests that the preannouncement
drift likely comes from a combination of information leakage and
superior forecasting based on proprietary data collection and reprocessing of public
information. 

Readers of Splitting Pennies understand Forex and how central banks control Forex markets, which is a superset of all other markets.  So it's interesting that a working group at the ECB studies stock & treasury futures markets, to show 'insider trading' based on 'price drift' - are they setting themselves up for the ultimate proof for manipulating the Euro surrounding key ECB data releases?

Although their conclusion is probably correct, their methodology is ridiculous.  Their proof that there's insider trading going on is based on 'price drift' which accounts for about 50% of the post-data move.

The European Central Bank published a working paper — which means it hasn't been peer reviewed as yet — arguing that seven out of 21 market-moving announcements show evidence of "substantial informed trading" before the official release time.The paper identified seven indicators that they said showed "strong" evidence of pre-announcement drift: The Conference Board's consumer confidence index; the National Association of Realtors' existing-home sales report and pending-home sales report; the Commerce Department's preliminary GDP report; the Federal Reserve's industrial production report; and the Institute for Supply Management's manufacturing and nonmanufacturing index.

The accused, has a more reasonable answer for 'price drift' - it's because the market expects the numbers to be as expected:

A spokesman for the National Association of Realtors says they take any allegations seriously. He points out that the existing-home-sales report is released from a secure location, that reporters are instructed not to communicate outside of the room, and that the organization monitors the media to make sure data is not disseminated early. He's said on occasion media organizations have accidentally released data early, apologized to the group and not done so subsequently.  The spokesman also suggested, however, that traders may be making educated guesses. The pending-home-sales release tracks closely what the existing-home-sales report eventually shows.  A Federal Reserve spokesman declined to comment. Messages left with the Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis and The Conference Board weren't returned.

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Derivatives Losses Are Mushrooming at Freddie Mac; Now It’s the Taxpayers’ Problem

Posted: 03 May 2016 07:20 PM PDT

by Pam Martens and Russ Martens, Wall St On Parade:

On April 21, Wall Street On Parade reported that the U.S. government (also known as the U.S. taxpayer) was on the hook for potentially tens of billions of dollars in derivative losses at Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae – the two companies the government put under conservatorship during the Wall Street financial collapse of 2008. (See related article below.)

This morning, Freddie Mac is adding further angst to this potential derivatives blowup scenario by reporting that it lost $4.56 billion in its derivatives portfolio in just the first three months of this year – a stunning 90 percent increase over what it lost in derivatives in the first quarter of 2015. That brings its derivative losses for all of 2014, 2015 and the first quarter of 2016 to $15.54 billion. (See chart below.) This is certain to bring gasps from some members of Congress.

While positive net income has offset the derivative losses in recent years, making Freddie Mac profitable overall, the company said in its press release this morning that it had an overall $354 million net loss for the first quarter of this year, meaning the derivative losses fully wiped out the earnings it makes from its portfolio of mortgages and other sources of positive income such as the fees it collects for guaranteeing mortgages.

Despite acknowledging that its net worth is a mere $1 billion, Freddie Mac said in its press release that it would not be drawing further from the U.S. Treasury at this time. Under the conservatorship arrangement, the U.S. Treasury has already infused over $187.5 billion into Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae. But according to a government audit released by the Government Accountability Office (GAO) on February 25 of this year, the U.S. Treasury has committed taxpayers to an additional $258.1 billion that Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae can draw down.

Read More @ WallStOnParade.com

Silver Nanotechnology Paves the Way for Cleaner Water Supplies

Posted: 03 May 2016 06:34 PM PDT

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FBI: Hitler Didn’t Die, Fled To Argentina by Submarine - Stunning Admission on File

Posted: 03 May 2016 05:30 PM PDT

FBI: Hitler Didn't Die, Fled To Argentina by Submarine – Stunning Admission on File. The Financial Armageddon Economic Collapse Blog tracks trends and forecasts , futurists , visionaries , free investigative journalists , researchers , Whistelblowers , truthers and many more

[[ This is a content summary only. Visit http://www.newsbooze.com or http://www.figanews.com for full links, other content, and more! ]]

Gold Price Backed Off $4.00 or -0.31% to $1290.70

Posted: 03 May 2016 05:00 PM PDT

3-May-16PriceChange% Change
Gold Price, $/oz1,290.70-4.00-0.31%
Silver Price, $/oz17.47-0.18-1.03%
Gold/Silver Ratio73.8640.5350.73%
Silver/Gold Ratio0.0135-0.0001-0.72%
Platinum1,070.10-14.80-1.36%
Palladium609.10-15.90-2.54%
S&P 5002,063.37-18.06-0.87%
Dow17,750.91-140.25-0.78%
Dow in GOLD $s284.30-1.36-0.48%
Dow in GOLD oz13.75-0.07-0.48%
Dow in SILVER oz1,015.852.530.25%
US Dollar Index92.930.310.33%
IMPORTANT NOTE: The following are wholesale, not retail, prices. To figure our retail selling price, multiply the "ask" price by 1.035. To figure our retail buying price, multiple the "bid" price by 0.97. Lower commissions apply to larger orders, higher commissions to very small orders.
SPOT GOLD:1,287.10   
GOLDFine Tr.Oz.BIDASK$/oz
American Eagle1.001,324.431,330.221,330.22
1/2 AE0.50655.91678.951,357.89
1/4 AE0.25331.17345.911,383.63
1/10 AE0.10135.04140.941,409.37
Aust. 100 corona0.981,255.311,264.311,289.85
British sovereign0.24305.26318.261,351.98
French 20 franc0.19242.10246.101,318.18
Krugerrand1.001,298.681,308.681,308.68
Maple Leaf1.001,297.101,311.101,311.10
1/2 Maple Leaf0.50740.08675.731,351.46
1/4 Maple Leaf0.25328.21344.301,377.20
1/10 Maple Leaf0.10136.43140.291,402.94
Mexican 50 peso1.211,540.871,551.871,287.11
.9999 bar1.001,291.601,299.101,299.10
SPOT SILVER:17.44   
SILVERFine Tr.Oz.BIDASK$/oz
VG+ Morgan $B4 19050.7722.5026.0033.99
VG+ Peace dollar0.7717.5020.0026.14
90% silver coin bags0.7212,966.5313,252.5318.54
US 40% silver 1/2s0.305,025.335,187.3317.58
100 oz .999 bar100.001,768.501,793.5017.94
10 oz .999 bar10.00175.85180.8518.09
1 oz .999 round1.0017.5418.0018.00
Am Eagle, 200 oz Min1.0018.9420.1920.19
SPOT PLATINUM:1,070.10   
PLATINUMFine Tr.Oz.BIDASK$/oz
Plat. Platypus1.001,085.101,115.101,115.10

Today the US dollar index pulled back from the brink, but not much. It slurped up 31 basis points (0.34%) to close at 92.93. About the best thing you can say about that is, "Well, it didn't tumble into the abyss, yet." 
No, I can say better. Today it dropped into new low territory , hitting 91.88, BUT recovered and closed higher than yesterday. Yea, 'tis the first day of a two-day Key Reversal, requiring for validation a higher close again tomorrow -- really the next day as well. 

That low came in overnight trading at 4:00 a.m. eastern time, and the dollar climbed at 45 degrees the rest of the day. Now I am suspicious & even bite nickels to make sure they are genuine, but I wouldn't be a bit surprised if the ever vigilant Nice Government Men didn't jump in there & give the dollar a frantically necessary push up. I sure would have if I were them, or Janet Yellen, but that presupposes that they all have as much gray matter as a nat'ral born durned fool from Tennessee, which is leaning on believability a bit too hard. 

The brave and decrepit euro fell 0.29% to $1.1499 and the Yen fell 0.18% to 93.79. 

Yep, yep, Dow gained 118 yesterday and lost 140.25 (0.78%) today for a 17,750.91 close. S&P500 slid 18.06 (0.87%) to 2,063.37. I despise repeating myself, but here I am doing it over again: Stocks are broken. Not coming back. Will sink from here. Like a worn out old actor, they will soon carry a sign that says, "Will work for beer." 

Oil (WTIC) has painted itself into a rising wedge. Yes, it broke up through the downtrend, and even came back & kissed it goo- bye, but hasn't quite managed to achieve escape velocity. Above the 200 DMA and the 20 DMA, but without closing above $46.78 (last high), the next move will be determined by gravity, not Bernoulli's principle. Y'all see for yourselves, http://schrts.co/KvfGnd 

Gold backed off $4.00 (0.31%) to $1,290.70 but silver tumbled 18.2¢ (3.1%) to 1747.4¢. 

What did y'all expect, now really? Did y'all think gold would just rise & keep on rising, slicing through all resistance like a new Cutco knife through hot lard? No, weighty resistance like the $1,308 level, 2015's high, may take two or even three tries to bust through. Worse than that that scurvy US dollar is trashing up the picture, weaving back and forth over the lip of hell. 

Makes no difference. I will not even be downcast if gold drops back to $1,250, BECAUSE THAT ADVANCE THROUGH $1,308 IS COMING. Late or soon, it's coming. More than that, silver has plumb outdone itself & the moon to boot, shooting up since April. Add to that the December bottoms & faltering stocks & a Fed that don't know sic 'em from come here about what to do next -- folks, it is a sure-fire recipe for higher silver & gold. Trust your government, trust your central bank. Central banks are the very best friends precious metals have in the whole round world. 

Sometimes I could wring my son Justin's neck. He was supposed to pick up pigs from my house and bring them up to the farm to farrow. Called me while I was writing this and said, "You have to come look at this pig. There's something wrong with her." 

My mind's not on that. I'm preoccupied with Bridget's disappearance. She's our pit bull/Husky mix we've had 7 or 8 years. Catherine Fitts brought her over here as a puppy because they kill pit bulls in the county she lives in. That dog chewed everything thing in our yard. Ate flower pots. Metal ones. Jaws like Godzilla. But by and by she calmed down and I got to liking her. And she was smart: figured out how to open our drop-latch front door, & just let herself in whenever she wanted. Came in every evening to sleep under the stairs. Snored outrageously. 

Friday the electric fence collar we use went kaput, and last I saw of Bridget was her running out through the woods. We've looked everywhere for her, & I've just given up trying. I was sure she was dead. Susan really set some store by that dog. I am not that sentimental, but Susan was considering setting me up on suicide watch after Bridget disappeared. 


So I drove over to the barn to see what was wrong with that pig, and there in the truck my son was backing the trailer with flashed a white tail tip: Bridget! She had taken up with somebody on Suck Stem Branch, and showed ne'er a trace of shame. If I hadn't been so glad to see her I'd have taken a peach tree limb to her.

Aurum et argentum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2016, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission. To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 18 ounces of silver.  US $ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.

BREAKING -- Donald Trump Huge Win in Indiana

Posted: 03 May 2016 04:48 PM PDT

Donald Trump wins Indiana, on cusp of GOP nomination This is it for Lying Ted Cruz The Financial Armageddon Economic Collapse Blog tracks trends and forecasts , futurists , visionaries , free investigative journalists , researchers , Whistelblowers , truthers and many more

[[ This is a content summary only. Visit http://www.newsbooze.com or http://www.figanews.com for full links, other content, and more! ]]

The Ballad of Lyin' Ted

Posted: 03 May 2016 04:30 PM PDT

 The Ballad of Lyin' Ted Cruz. Written and recorded for Right Side Broadcasting by Jacob Seales. The Financial Armageddon Economic Collapse Blog tracks trends and forecasts , futurists , visionaries , free investigative journalists , researchers , Whistelblowers , truthers and many more

[[ This is a content summary only. Visit http://www.newsbooze.com or http://www.figanews.com for full links, other content, and more! ]]

Mining share buyers aren't scared by bullion banks, Embry says

Posted: 03 May 2016 03:07 PM PDT

6:05p ET Tuesday, May 3, 2016

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Sprott Asset Management's John Embry today tells King World News that bullion banks seem more desperate than ever to contain the rise of the monetary metals but buyers of gold and silver mining shares haven't been scared off. Embry's interview is excerpted at the KWN Internet site here:

http://kingworldnews.com/when-the-global-ponzi-scheme-is-exposed-there-i...

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org



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Central banks conspire to harvest bitcoin's revolutionary technology

Posted: 03 May 2016 02:57 PM PDT

By Jeremy Warner
The Telegraph, London
Tuesday, May 3, 2016

For someone who says he shuns the limelight, Craig Wright has chosen an oddly high profile way of laying claim to the title of digital genius behind the Bitcoin phenomenon.

If he wanted to keep his identity secret, did he really need to hire a public relations consultancy to broadcast it to the world, or to provide an elaborate series of "proofs" that he is indeed Satoshi Nakamoto, the pseudonym by which the Bitcoin mastermind has long been known? ...

The real significance of bitcoin is not its value as a digital currency but the algorithm that lies behind it -- a technology called blockchain. What this in essence does is allow payments to be made without reference to a centralised ledger. Instead of relying on a trusted third party to clear and settle any given transaction, the blockchain provides a so-called "distributed ledger," where the transaction becomes widely recorded by all users and therefore verified in multiple form. Blockchain thereby renders existing payments systems pretty much obsolete.

In itself, this is revolutionary enough. Santander InnoVentures, the Spanish bank's fintech investment fund, recently estimated that blockchain could save lenders $20 billion a year in cross-border settlement payments alone. Another study by Autonomous Research estimated that the cost of clearing and settling securities in G7 countries was $54 billion a year. Theoretically, blockchain could obviate all these costs. ...

... For the remainder of the commentary:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/05/03/central-banks-conspire-to...



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Support GATA by purchasing DVDs of GATA's London conference in August 2011 or GATA's Dawson City conference in August 2006:

http://www.goldrush21.com/order.html

Or a colorful poster of GATA's full-page ad in The Wall Street Journal on January 31, 2009:

http://gata.org/node/wallstreetjournal

Help keep GATA going

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THE REDACTED 9/11 REPORT - NEVER SEEN FOOTAGE

Posted: 03 May 2016 02:10 PM PDT

 The 28 pages won't be covering this... The Financial Armageddon Economic Collapse Blog tracks trends and forecasts , futurists , visionaries , free investigative journalists , researchers , Whistelblowers , truthers and many more

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Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts - Silver Deliveries Continue Flowing - Rogoff Says Buy Gold

Posted: 03 May 2016 01:58 PM PDT

The Global Economy is at Stall Speed, Rapidly Loosing Lift

Posted: 03 May 2016 01:53 PM PDT

This post The Global Economy is at Stall Speed, Rapidly Loosing Lift appeared first on Daily Reckoning.

South Korea's exports tumbled to $41 billion in April, marking the 16th consecutive month of declining foreign sales. Last month's result represented a 11.2% decline from prior year, and an 18% drop from April 2014. Moreover, within that shrinking total, exports to China were down by 18.4% last month, following a 12.2% drop in March.

south-korea-exports

The Korean export slump is no aberration. The same pattern is evident in the entire East Asia export belt. That's because the Red Ponzi is in its last innings. Beijing is furiously pumping on the credit accelerator, but to no avail.

As can't be emphasized enough, printing GDP by means of wanton credit expansion does not create wealth or growth; it just results in an eventual day of reckoning when the speculative excesses inherent in central bank money printing collapse in upon themselves.

China is surely close to that kind of implosion. During Q1 total credit, or what Beijing is please to call "social financing", expanded at a $4 trillion annualized rate. This was up 57% over prior year and represented debt growth at a 38% of GDP annual rate.

Stated differently, during the first 90 days of 2016 China piled another $1 trillion of debt on its existing $30 trillion debt mountain, while its nominal GDP expanded by less than $175 billion.

That's right. The Red Ponzi is generating barely $1 of GDP for every $6 of new debt. And much of the "GDP" purportedly generated during Q1 reflected new construction of empty apartments and redundant public infrastructure.

By now it ought to be evident that the Chinese economy is a brobdingnagian freak of nature that is destined for a collapse, and that its economic statistics are a tissue of fabrications and delusions. Even its export figures, which are constrained toward minimum honesty because they can be checked against Chinese imports reported by the rest of the world, are padded to some considerable degree by phony export invoicing designed to hide illegal capital flight.

Still, the implication of its export trends are unmistakable. When you aside the statistical razzmatazz of the Chinese New Year's timing noise in the data, exports were down by 10% in Q1 as a whole. That is the worst quarterly drop since 2009 amidst the global Great Recession, and was nearly twice the rate of  decline during Q4 and Q3 2015.

china-exports

Here's the thing. China can't be growing at 6.7% when its export machine has run out of gas, as is so starkly evident in the graph below. That's because the whole Red Ponzi was built on subsidized exports via the massive currency pegging operations of the People's Bank of China. But now that the DM world is at peak debt, the jig is up.

To wit, western consumers are out of borrowing capacity—–so China's exporters are out of runway. It is maintaining the appearance of GDP growth, in essence, by building pyramids and playing a bad joke on the west.

After all, China's GDP accounts may be doctored and reported in a crooked manner, but they were gifted to the comrades in Beijing by the same style of Keynesian economic reasoning that lead the Great Thinker to advocate digging holes and then refilling them again as an economic curative. Keynes' modern day followers on Wall Street apparently believe the same thing.

ABOOK-Apr-2016-China-Trade-Exports

The latter are also peddling the myth of China's smooth transition to domestic consumption and services. But when the central bank has exhausted the nation's balance sheets, as is rapidly occurring in China, consumption growth perforce reverts to the growth rate of production and income. In China's case, that vector will be heading south as its great construction binge and capital investment spree grinds to a halt.

In short, China is at nearly a 300% debt-to-GDP ratio already. What's more, the denominator of that ratio is rotten to the core, representing as it does massive malinvestment and redundant public infrastructure that will one day be written off or abandoned as a dead weight loss to China's economy.

More importantly, laid off construction and industrial workers and shrunken or closed business operations in the boom time sectors of its economy face drastic reductions in current cash flow and increasingly limited capacity to borrow—even in the Red Ponzi. So they will reduce spending, not recycle it, as Wall Street sell-side propagandists constantly proclaim.

That is, China is plunging into deflation and liquidation, not some grand transition to a US style shopping mall and services mecca. The US got to that dubious condition by borrowing from the rest of the world so that American consumers could live well beyond their means. Alas, China has already used up its national credit card, and there is no one left on the planet to borrow from, anyway.

Indeed, there is plenty of evidence already for the coming round of economic compression as opposed to theoretical recycling. China is a great materials conversion machines that imports raw material and intermediate goods and converts them into final assemblies and consumer products for export. Accordingly, when import volumes are falling, it is a another telltale warning that China's credit ponzi is failing.

Thus, Q1 imports as a whole fell 13.3% from prior year, and represented a worsening of Q4's decline of 11.8% . As Jeff Snider demonstrated in the chart below, China's import trend has transitioned from a slowdown mode to sustained decline.

ABOOK-Apr-2016-China-Trade-Imports

If China were experiencing a smooth transition to domestic consumption and services, imports would not be falling at the rates depicted above. After all, the two largest sectors of its services economy are construction and retail—-both of which depend upon the flow-through of imports: raw materials in the former case, and luxury goods from the DM economies in the case of the latter sector.

Needless to say, the ongoing production slump in China is taking its toll far and wide among the export economies that prospered during the boom phase of the Red Ponzi.

Singapore, which is the hub of the system, has dropped even more sharply than Korea. March exports were down 14% from prior year and nearly 21% from March 2014.

singapore-exports

Likewise, Hong Kong's exports are down nearly 9% in the last two years, while Taiwan's exports have been reduced by 19% during that period. In both cases, the plunge in shipments to China has led the erosion. During the last year, for example, Hong Kong's exports to China have dropped by 11% or well more than its to total export decline.

taiwan-exports

hong-kong-exports

Similarly, Indonesian export shipments have dropped 21%. In the case of Brazil, which was essentially an export satellite of China, the dollar value of its export shipments is down by 24% since 2013.

indonesia-exports

brazil-exports

During the last two months, of course, the Red Ponzi has experienced another speculative mini-bubble. It seems that last year's raging horde of gamblers, which at one point opened 387 million stock trading accounts, had piled into the commodity pits. While this latest outbreak did fuel a completely phony 50-70% rebound in the price of iron ore, cotton and rebar futures, it was not evidence of a sustainable economic revival.

In fact, during Q1 China consumed 332 million tons of petroleum fuels (gasoline and distillates) compared to 339 million tons during Q1 of 2015. That 2% reduction not only negates the China recovery meme, but also represents a sharp inflection point in the underlying trend of petroleum consumption.

To wit, between 2011 and 2015 China's Q1 domestic petroleum fuel use, as measured by shipments of its two giant state oil companies, rose from 271 million tons to 339 million tons or by 5.5% per annum.  By contrast, it is now shrinking, and that is a sign of an unfolding deflation, not a return to boom times in another venue.

There is a reason why CapEx is plunging all over the world, and why Japan is slipping into recession, Europe is sputtering and the US has hit the flat line. Namely, the central bank fueled crack-up boom is doing exactly what Mises foretold; its cracking up.

To be sure, modern day economists have no use for such vocabulary, and are want to describe the slumping trade data now emerging daily as evidence that the global economy is lapsing into "stall speed".

That's a metaphor from aeronautics, of course, but it means the same thing.

Regards,

David Stockman
for The Daily Reckoning

P.S. "A charmingly mordant take on the stock news of the day, accentuated by philosophical maunderings…" That's how one leading financial magazine described the free daily email edition of The Daily Reckoning. You'll find cutting-edge analysis from the complex worlds of finance, politics and culture. Presented in an entertaining style few can match. Click here now to sign up for FREE.

The post The Global Economy is at Stall Speed, Rapidly Loosing Lift appeared first on Daily Reckoning.

GOVERNMENTS WILL FALL AS THE FINANCIAL SYSTEM FAILS. By Gregory Mannarino

Posted: 03 May 2016 12:00 PM PDT

I don't see the next system, that is ready and They will put in place, will allow precious metals to be owned by any but those who rule (it will be illegal and we will have to turn it in). Also, the body cannot digest gold. The Financial Armageddon Economic Collapse Blog tracks trends and...

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Donald Trump Warns of Massive Economic Collapse 2016

Posted: 03 May 2016 11:00 AM PDT

Donald Trump warns of a massive Economic Collapse 2016 Armageddon, Corporate Debt Defaults, Debt, Debt Defaults, Defaults, Don't Make Enough Money, Economic Crash, Employed, Financial, Financial Armageddon, Financial Crisis, Financial Crisis 2016, Great Crash, Harry Dent, Imminent, Investors,...

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Breaking News And Best Of The Web — May 4

Posted: 03 May 2016 10:34 AM PDT

The global economy is “at stall speed.” Money is pouring out of hedge funds — and into gold and silver ETFs. Japan and China keep reporting bad numbers. US and Europe continue to slow down. Italy and Japan lobby for bigger deficits. Gold and silver get their correction. Cruz drops out, giving Trump the nomination. […]

Criticism: The Untruth About Donald Trump | #NeverTrump Stumped!

Posted: 03 May 2016 10:30 AM PDT

Question: "How can Stefan Molyneux possibly support Donald Trump?" The Financial Armageddon Economic Collapse Blog tracks trends and forecasts , futurists , visionaries , free investigative journalists , researchers , Whistelblowers , truthers and many more

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Has NASA Discovered An Alien Civilization?

Posted: 03 May 2016 10:00 AM PDT

Could NASA be in contact with alien civilisations but are doing all they can to prevent this becoming public knowledge? The Financial Armageddon Economic Collapse Blog tracks trends and forecasts , futurists , visionaries , free investigative journalists , researchers ,...

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Economic Whisper Signalling The Crash Of The System Is Approaching

Posted: 03 May 2016 09:30 AM PDT

Economic Whisper Signalling The Crash Of The System Is Approaching The Financial Armageddon Economic Collapse Blog tracks trends and forecasts , futurists , visionaries , free investigative journalists , researchers , Whistelblowers , truthers and many more

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RBA Proves They Are Not Prudent

Posted: 03 May 2016 09:13 AM PDT

This post RBA Proves They Are Not Prudent appeared first on Daily Reckoning.

Good day, and a Tom terrific Tuesday to you!

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) dropped their recent return to Central Bank prudency, and went ahead and cut rates last light. The Aussie dollar (A$) is getting whacked, because A$ traders and analysts like me, had gotten snookered by the RBA’s recent non-moves, as being a return to being a prudent Central Bank.

I really thought that the RBA would remain calm and keep a steady hand on the interest rates wheel after the drop in first QTR CPI printed last week, so did the A$ traders who kept pushing the A$ higher by week’s end. But the RBA didn’t remain calm, they didn’t keep a steady hand at the interest rate wheel, and they didn’t maintain any of the A$ strength that had been so good to see lately.

It wasn’t that bad of a day/night for the A$ though. Yes, A$’s dropped by one full cent after the announcement, but it had risen by more than 1/2-cent heading into the rate decision meeting, so overall, from Friday’s close, the A$ is weaker by less than 1/2-cent this morning, but the full one cent move yesterday was ugly. Like the whole forest!

So, the RBA meeting was the key for volatility last night and it didn’t disappoint!

The other thing that had the potential for volatility overnight also didn’t disappoint, was the Mario Draghi speech I told you about yesterday. Recall that I thought with the euro trading close to 1.15 that Draghi would use that as an excuse to throw the euro under the bus. Well, he didn’t do that! And the euro soared in relief mode past 1.15 for the first time since last August. Draghi, who as you know, is the President of the European Central Bank (ECB), which had been taking some verbal shots from Germany’s Central Bank (The Bundesbank), decided to use his speaking time to defend the ECB’s moves, and fire back at his critics at the Bundesbank.

So, I don’t really care about this tempest in a teacup going on between the ECB and Bundesbank, what I really care about is the euro soaring a full cent in the past day, and this morning is knocking on the door to 1.16!  In my opinion, it all has to do with the fact that there was pressure building up to push the euro higher because it now appears that the U.S. Fed can’t and won’t hike rates any time soon, but there was this Sword of Damocles hanging over the euro in the form of the Mario Draghi speech. Once that was put to bed, the pressure cooker was allowed to let off some steam, and the euro pushed higher.

And the Japanese yen booked another night of gains vs. the dollar and now trades with a 105 handle. I ran across an article in the Bloomberg that got me smiling. Yesterday, I explained how when you use “real interest rates” that the U.S. already had negative rates. Well, this article, which can be found here, talks about how currency valuations used to be about fundamentals and the key fundamental was simply interest rate differences between two countries.

If one country had a positive interest rate differential vs. another country, the first country’s currency would be a better value. But today, currency valuation is more about using the “real rates”, interest rates adjusted for inflation. Then I read this quote from Societe Generale SA, “An extended span of central bank stimulus has left short term nominal rates especially sticky relative to longer-term real rates, and in the aftermath of liftoff from the Federal Reserve, U.S. real rates have been collapsing – a trend that explains the drop-off in the U.S. dollar.” 

Gold couldn’t hold the $1,300 level it traded just barely above yesterday morning, but it’s still within spittin’ distance of the $1,300 figure. The loss yesterday was minuscule, but enough to push the shiny metal back below the $1,300 figure. And that makes sense to me, as there has to be some resistance at $1,300, and the longer gold remains around $1,300 the better the chance it could rise above it and move even higher. 

There are some analysts out there that believe that $1,300 could be a top for gold at this time. I can tell you that historically, that when that type of talk come out, that an asset goes about proving the analysts wrong! I would think that this time could be one of those occasions given the momentum going on with gold. And silver, can’t forget silver! And while we’re talk about not forgetting about a metal, let’s not forget the moves higher in both platinum and palladium, as they’ve really ticked higher in recent moves.

The price of oil dropped yesterday, and overall it was a night of a small recovery for the dollar yesterday. I’ve told you before that when an asset like the dollar, is nearing the end of its strong trend, that it will have days when it looks like it can prolong the strong trend, but in reality it’s dead cat bounces. I’ve also explained that no cats were hurt, and that a dead cat bounce is just a market saying to describe something that otherwise has no explanation as to why it rebounded for a day.

The Chinese renminbi saw another small depreciation in the overnight fixing last night. First quarter GDP printed in China and was very disturbing to me, and should have been to the Chinese officials who believe that annual Chinese GDP will be 6.5% this year. The first quarter GDP annualized would only put GDP at 4.5%… Uh-Oh! Looks like the Chinese will opt for more stimulus, instead of backing off the accelerator like they did in the second quarter.

Yes, their PMI remained above 50 last month, but it’s hanging on by the skin of its teeth.  I had thought that China has seen the trough of their recession, and maybe they still have, but it’s going to take a lot longer for them to push their way out of this recession.

The recent good and strong moves by the Russian ruble were wiped out in one night’s trading last night. UGH! Oil drops and the ruble plunges. I used to think that the S. African rand was the most volatile currency, but it has had that title taken from it by the Russian ruble. Which is why it is imperative that only speculative money be used with rubles. You know, in your investment portfolio, you have a section for income, for growth, for stability, and for speculation. This is where you buy things that are speculative, and when you’re talking about currencies that would include: rubles, real, and rands.

And that’s so you, Chuck. you go from being as serious as a heart attack, to being as silly as a clown within the same paragraph! I know, I know, I try not to do that, but I just start typing and the next thing I know, I’m finished and it has gone that way.

The U.S. Data Cupboard yesterday had the ISM or PMI (manufacturing index) for April, and it printed as I expected it to print, not as strong as the March rebound. The April PMI was 50.8, vs. 51.5 in March and 51 consensus. The first print of the second quarter and it basically was flat. About the same that I can say for the economy – flat as a pancake.

Well, today’s Data Cupboard doesn’t have much for us. Two Fed speakers, Mester and Lockhart will speak and I have the same thought about this as I did yesterday, and that is I wonder if they will sing from the same song sheet.

Did you hear that Sports Authority filed for bankruptcy, and will close all 450 of its stores? Oh, and the company has $1 billion in debt. How’s the economy going to absorb that, those lost jobs, and distribution centers? I read that yesterday and then watched the news last night, and nary a word about this. Hmmm…

Oh, and one more piece from the data side of things. The NY Fed, announced yesterday that they were downgrading their forecast for second quarter GDP to 0.8% from their previous forecast of 1.2%. The NY Fed pointed to the recent negative prints from housing and manufacturing as the reasons for their downgrade.

Remember last year, me telling you about the problems with debt payments by Puerto Rico? And I told you that that it wasn’t going to end up nicely. Well, there was recent news yesterday that was picked up by Reuters, and now me. You can read the entire article hereAfter missing their debt payment, Puerto Rico is in talks with its creditors. Here’s your snippet: 

Puerto Rico’s Government Development Bank, the main funding source for the U.S. commonwealth’s public agencies, said it reached a tentative restructuring deal with some major creditors hours after declaring it would skip a $422 million debt payment.

The agreed framework is ‘a vital first step’ that needs both restructuring legislation from the U.S. federal government and participation from all of the GDB’s creditors in order to work, the bank said in the statement issued late on Sunday.

Puerto Rico overall faces $70 billion in debt, a staggering 45-percent poverty rate and a shrinking population as it enters the most dire stretch of its fiscal crisis. It owes another $1.9 billion on July 1 that Governor Alejandro Garcia Padilla says it cannot pay.

Both the government and the creditors, who call themselves the Ad Hoc Group and hold roughly $935 million of the GDB’s nearly $4 billion in bonds, said they would continue negotiations for another 30 days.

Chuck again. I don’t get this financing stuff that just keeps kicking cans down a road, knowing all too well that the receiver of the loan is never going to be able to pay it back. Makes no sense to me.  If you get to the point where you know the entity you loaned money to is not going to be able to pay you back, do you lend it more money?

That’s it for today. I’ll get out of your hair for today, and hope you have a Tom terrific Tuesday. Be good to yourself!

Regards,

Chuck Butler
for The Daily Pfennig

P.S. Will the Fed raise rates at its next meeting? Is China preparing to shock global markets by devaluing the yuan? You'll find the answers to these questions and more in the free daily email edition of The Daily Reckoning. In a way you're sure to find entertaining… even risqué at times. Click here now to sign up for FREE.

The post RBA Proves They Are Not Prudent appeared first on Daily Reckoning.

What is the Real Value of Gold Today?

Posted: 03 May 2016 08:54 AM PDT

Gold is on a tear this year. The precious metal is up 19%. That’s great! Those holding gold should be happy with their gains. If they take their coins to the grocery store they can buy, well, absolutely nothing. But they can sell their gold to someone else for some printed pieces of cotton (our noble currency) before making their way to the local Whole Foods. To be fair, some gold coins were actual money many years ago, like the $20 gold piece. In some states it is legal to use these coins today as money, but only for face value, which would be stupid. For all intents and purposes, gold is not money today.

Gerald Celente - AI & The 2016 Financial Meltdown

Posted: 03 May 2016 08:15 AM PDT

Jeff Rense & Gerald Celente - AI & The 2016 Financial Meltdown Clip from April 27, 2016 - guest Gerald Celente on the Jeff Rense Program. The Financial Armageddon Economic Collapse Blog tracks trends and forecasts , futurists , visionaries , free investigative journalists ,...

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Bank of England Prepares for BREXIT!

Posted: 03 May 2016 06:30 AM PDT

They won't release evidence showing Saudi involvement in 9/11 as this would lead back and would show the involvement of American government. The Financial Armageddon Economic Collapse Blog tracks trends and forecasts , futurists , visionaries , free investigative journalists ,...

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Tuesday Morning Links

Posted: 03 May 2016 05:54 AM PDT

MUST READS Trump hopes to land decisive blow in Indiana – Reuters Ted Cruz desperately seeks to stop Donald Trump in Indiana – AP The Three Possible Outcomes In Indiana's GOP Primary – Five Thirty Eight Puerto Rico's Debt Crisis Deepens as Government Misses Payment – WSJ 16 Reasons Why Venezuela Is on the Brink of Collapse – panam post Venezuela [...]

US Dollar Index on the Brink as Dollar Meltdown Continues - Video

Posted: 03 May 2016 05:34 AM PDT

Transcript Excerpt: Tuesday May 3rd 2016 yes around 8:40 a.m. London time or 340 New York time I'm gonna be talking currencies this morning as the dollar continues to to drop you know quite quite sharply I had been covering the yen and how that's been appreciating quite strongly against the dollar despite the fact that the BOJ stepped up especially knowing the end of February stepped up their cue we and a negative interest rates but this morning I will be talking a little bit the dollar index dollar index is basically weights and measures the dollar against a basket of currencies and this basket is composed of the following 57.6% euro 30.6% Japanese yen 11.9% British Pound 9.1% Canadian dollar four point to.

Gold Stocks in the Danger Zone

Posted: 03 May 2016 05:29 AM PDT

The bears have been in charge for the last 4 years or so taking both gold and silver into the depths of despair. The associated mining companies also felt the cold with many having to postpone projects, slash dividends and implement a series of cost cutting measures. As with most bear markets there were a number of rallies which turned out to be head fakes or bear traps as gold lost its momentum. We can all recall just how well 2015 started as gold bolted in January to higher ground bringing much joy to the perma gold bulls. Alas gold couldn’t maintain it strength and spent the remainder of the year drifting to its lowest level for some time. Fast forward to this year and we can see once again gold has started like an Olympic sprinter taking the price of gold to within touching distance of $1300.00/oz. Silver was a tad slow to start but has now joined the fun by breaching previous resistance levels and confirming golds strength.

Central Banks Need a Higher Gold Price : Hello GATA

Posted: 03 May 2016 04:46 AM PDT

A friend sent me some comments from Chris Powell over at GATA (headquarters for the gold manipulation crowd) writing about the possibility of a change in the thinking of the Central Banks in regards to the gold price.

Have Gold Mining Shares Topped?

Posted: 03 May 2016 03:32 AM PDT

Gold should drop about $150 from here into May 18th or about 12-13%. Gold mining shares should drop about 35-38% from here into May 18th. Mercury turned stationary/retrograde on April 28th suggesting a major top +/- 2 trading days from that date. The Gann cycles suggest a likelihood of Monday, May 2nd being that top. The vertical white lines are TLC or trend line convergence lows which look for May 18th and May 20th as being important lows.

A Currency War Battle That Europe and Japan Can’t Afford To Lose

Posted: 03 May 2016 03:23 AM PDT

The dollar is tanking lately. From a high of around 100 in December, the dollar index — which measures USD against a basket of foreign currencies — is down about 8%, and the decline is steepening. In counterintuitive currency war terms, that means the US is winning the latest battle.

In Exclusive Interview GATA Chairman Bill Murphy Says Gold Cartel Getting Desperate - Video

Posted: 03 May 2016 03:18 AM PDT

Transcript excerpt: ok this afternoon May May 2nd 2016 Monday I'm interviewing bill Murphy he's the chairman of gala which means gold anti-trust action committee their website has got a dog or and yeah bill used to work in the financial markets back in the seventies and commodities but I'll let him introduced himself and talk a little bit about gaps and what they do you have some background and commodity in that phone firm once in New York City and small one and there was a limited edition trailer one time they traded futures markets have that background and it's helped me understand the market movements cause I watch them on a daily basis so it it you know that's the one thing I'm good we all

Some of Brien Lundin's Precious Metals Picks Are Up More Than 400%. What Is Next?

Posted: 03 May 2016 01:00 AM PDT

A battle royale is brewing between gold bulls and commercial traders who are short gold, says Brien Lundin, publisher of Gold Newsletter. That tug of war, which should play out in the coming weeks, could result in either a severe correction or a spectacular rise in the price of gold and silver. No matter which way it goes, in this interview with The Gold Report, Lundin recommends that investors continue to look at companies with world-class resources that are still being priced at a fraction of what their values should be. Lundin should know; some of his recommendations are up more than 400% from December and January.

Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts - Reverse Algo Engines - No Limits

Posted: 02 May 2016 01:04 PM PDT

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