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Tuesday, May 3, 2016

Gold World News Flash

Gold World News Flash


Gold: Maximize Profit in New Bull Market: State of the Art Discovery Technology – Wade Hodges

Posted: 03 May 2016 01:00 AM PDT

Puerto Rico Default Bruises Dollar, Boosts Gold

Posted: 03 May 2016 12:30 AM PDT

from The Daily Bell:

Scott Minerd, global chief investment officer of Guggenheim Partners, said on Wednesday it is a good time to dip into U.S. Treasuries in the wake of their sell-off. "It is impossible to get the timing of anything exactly right. You have to ask yourself, 'Are you a speculator or an investor?’" -Reuters

Puerto Rico is about to default on bond obligations today, but some of the largest bond funds in the world are starting to "nibble" on Treasuries again.

This is after an April sell-off that The Wall Street Journal and other publications attributed to "improving sentiment toward the global economic outlook sapp[ing] demand for haven debt."

Over the past few weeks, investors have been easing up on government bonds and buying riskier assets: stocks, oil, junk bonds and emerging-market equity and bonds.

Without belaboring the point, one wonders what it is that so attracts a variety of corporate investors to US debt. Saudi Arabia just threatened to sell off US$750 billion in US assets. The BRICS are doing everything they can to reduce dollar exposure.

It is almost never discussed by the mainstream media, but the totality of US obligations has been estimated to run around US$200 TRILLION. That's not a feasible number for any sovereign entity to redeem: not even a nation that the prints the world's reserve currency.

And now Puerto Rico is about to default. Here, from ZeroHedge:

Read More @ TheDailyBell.com

Gold Stocks in the Danger Zone

Posted: 02 May 2016 11:35 PM PDT

The bears have been in charge for the last 4 years or so taking both gold and silver into the depths of despair. The associated mining companies also felt the cold with many having to postpone projects, slash dividends and implement a series of cost cutting measures.

As with most bear markets

Question for Dan Norcini et al.: Are central banks rigging gold or not?

Posted: 02 May 2016 09:47 PM PDT

12:56a ET Tuesday, May 3, 2016

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Replying to your secretary/treasurer's speculation last night that central banks lately may have moved from gold price suppression to allowing gold to rise to help devalue currencies and debt -–

http://www.gata.org/node/16427

-- market analyst Dan Norcini asserts that GATA has come over to his position:

http://news.goldseek.com/DanNorcini/1462284120.php

Not at all.

In the first place, Norcini had just written that rather than helping central banks avert deflation, a dramatically rising gold price would actually signify the end of the world:

http://news.goldseek.com/DanNorcini/1462129200.php

That is, Norcini wrote: "I still cannot stomach so many of these gold cult members who seem not to understand that when they are cheering predictions of $5,000, $50,000, etc., gold prices, they are cheering the ruin of everything around them."

Your secretary/treasurer's speculation had explicitly contradicted Norcini's assertion. So there's no agreement there.

... Dispatch continues below ...



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Now Norcini writes: "I had been saying for some time that the Fed was not behind weakness in the gold price ever since the dollar embarked on its bull run back in 2014."

Huh -- 2014? But GATA began complaining of gold market manipulation and suppression 15 years earlier, and Norcini goes on to concede that during much of that time he subscribed to GATA's views.

So do GATA and Norcini disagree only as to exactly when in the last few years central banks generally or the Federal Reserve particularly may have discontinued gold price suppression?

Once again, not really.

In the first place, your secretary/treasurer's commentary last night was admittedly only speculation. GATA doesn't know that Federal Reserve policy has changed from gold price suppression to dollar devaluation. Indeed, that speculation arose in large part from suspicion that central banks may not have lost control of the gold market and that, if gold is rising again, it is only because that is what central banks now want it to do and how they are guiding the market with their surreptitious trading.

That the Fed to this day remains up to its neck in gold market manipulation was confirmed at the central bank's highest levels just a few weeks ago when the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, William Dudley, taking questions at a public forum in Virginia, clumsily refused to answer one about whether the Fed is involved in gold swaps. Then his press spokesman refused even to acknowledge GATA's follow-up question on the subject:

http://www.gata.org/node/16341

Anyone who doubts that U.S. government policy toward gold prior to 2014 was a policy of suppression is implored to dispute, specifically, document by document, the official records compiled here --

http://www.gata.org/node/14839

-- and here:

http://www.gata.org/node/16377

Norcini has not done that, though of course no one else who disparages GATA has done so either. In the absence of such dispute, it may be assumed that the records are genuine and that they are fairly construed as GATA has construed them.

Just as GATA doesn't care much about price predictions for gold, positive or negative, it doesn't care much about the "technical analysis" offered by Norcini and other gold market commentators, "technical analysis" of rigged markets being mere hallucination.

Rather, GATA cares mainly about free markets and limited, transparent, and accountable government, and so agreement or disagreement with GATA rests on the answers to these questions:

-- Are central banks involved in the gold market surreptitiously or not?

-- If central banks are involved in the gold market surreptitiously, is it just for fun -- for example, to see which central bank's trading desk can make the most money by cheating the most investors -- or is it for policy purposes?

-- If central banks are surreptitiously in the gold market for policy purposes, are these the traditional purposes of defeating a potentially competitive world reserve currency? Or have these purposes lately expanded to include purposes like devaluing currencies and debt to avert a catastrophic worldwide debt deflation, the emergency policy anticipated in 2006 by the Scottish economist Peter Millar, whose study of gold revaluation often has been publicized by GATA?:

http://www.gata.org/node/4843

-- If central banks, creators of infinite money, are surreptitiously trading a market, how can it be considered a market at all, and how can any country or the world ever enjoy a market economy again?

Just as Norcini has not challenged GATA's documentation of gold market rigging, he also seems not to have addressed those questions. But then no other critic of GATA has addressed them either. For as Chesterton wrote a hundred years ago, "As is common in most modern discussions, the unmentionable thing is the pivot of the whole discussion."

If central banks are surreptitiously trading markets, Norcini's "technical analysis" is the least of the casualties. In that case markets and even democracy itself are finished.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

* * *

Support GATA by purchasing recordings of the proceedings of the 2014 New Orleans Investment Conference:

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GATA is a civil rights and educational organization based in the United States and tax-exempt under the U.S. Internal Revenue Code. Its e-mail dispatches are free, and you can subscribe at:

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Jim Rogers – “The Impending Financial Crisis Will Be Much, Much Worse Than 2008″

Posted: 02 May 2016 09:20 PM PDT

from RT Shows:

“Fed pushing us to financial catastrophe worse than 2008″ – billionaire investor Jim Rogers
Since the crash of 2008, the world economy seemed to be slowly getting back on track. However, more and more voices – among our guests as well – are warning the public about a looming cataclysm in the financial world. How damaging will the new collapse be? What is leading the world into a global turmoil? And when the flames rise up, is there going to be anyone this time to pull the international community away from the brink of global war? We ask a legend in the world of investment, a co-founder of Quantum Fund – Jim Rogers is on Sophie&Co today.

A Currency War Battle That Europe and Japan Can’t Afford To Lose

Posted: 02 May 2016 09:00 PM PDT

by John Rubino, Dollar Collapse:

The dollar is tanking lately. From a high of around 100 in December, the dollar index — which measures USD against a basket of foreign currencies — is down about 8%, and the decline is steepening. In counterintuitive currency war terms, that means the US is winning the latest battle.

After three years of the dollar being pretty much the only strong currency in the world, US corporate profits are falling (because it's hard to sell things abroad when you price them in an expensive currency) and growth is slowing (because an economy can't expand if corporate profits are falling). Presumably the plunging dollar will offer some relief on those fronts.

But our relief comes at a high, potentially-catastrophic price for Japan and Europe, because a weak dollar by definition means a strong euro and yen. And those economies are totally unprepared for their exports becoming pricier and therefore harder to move. Here's what the yen and euro are doing while the dollar is falling:

Japan's 2016 GDP growth forecast is an anemic 1.2%. The eurozone's inflation rate is -0.2%. French unemployment is above 10%. The list goes on, but the scariest stats come from Italy where some major banks are trading at less than half of book value, implying that huge loan losses are expected.

This is clearly not the time to tighten monetary policy by raising the value of one's currency. But that's exactly what Japan and Europe are doing. And the sense of panic is building:

Italy, Japan urge G7 to spend for growth
(Straights Times) – Italy and Japan want the upcoming summit of Group of Seven (G7) leaders to send a "strong signal" of support for using flexible budget policies to stimulate a slowing global economy, the leaders of the two countries said on Monday (May 2).
At the start of a European tour focused on preparations for the summit, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe said he and his Italian counterpart Matteo Renzi shared a view that an acceleration of structural reforms in leading economies had to be accompanied by greater flexibility on budgetary policies.

"We agreed the G7 should send a strong signal in this sense," Mr Abe said after talks with Mr Renzi in the Italian leader's home city, Florence.

Mr Renzi said: "Japan is hosting the G7 at a time of great importance and I am counting a lot on Shinzo Abe's leadership, particularly on the subject of growth.

"We have an extraordinary need to seize the opportunity presented at the G7 and we will be in the frontline supporting (Japan's efforts) to make the summit a success."

Mr Abe is known for his "Abenomics" attempts to stimulate economic growth through increased public spending while Mr Renzi has been the leading advocate of loosening Europe's budgetary rules to promote recovery in Italy and other stagnating Eurozone economies.

Read More @ DollarCollapse.com

Wall Street’s Kangaroo Courts Perpetuate a Business Model of Fraud

Posted: 02 May 2016 08:20 PM PDT

by Pam Martens, Wall Street On Parade:

Speaking of the Wall Street and global banks that populate London's financial district, John Mann, a Member of Parliament, asked the rhetorical question at a Treasury Select Committee hearing on February 4, 2014: "Have we or have we not just had the biggest series of quantifiable wrongdoing in the history of our financial services industry?…Is there any other industry in recorded history in this country who's had a comparable level of quantifiable wrongdoing to your knowledge?"

The answer, of course, is that there is no other industry on either side of the pond that has inflicted as much economic pain as Wall Street through "quantifiable wrongdoing." And yet, the U.S. government continues to allow this serially crime-infested industry to run its own private justice system where both its customers and its employees are barred from taking their lawsuits into a court of law so that the public and the press can monitor the proceedings and have future access to the detailed court records to analyze patterns of crimes or recidivism.

Depending on which side you're on, this private justice system on Wall Street has various monikers. Wall Street firms and their lawyers call it "mandatory arbitration" or "pre-dispute arbitration agreements" and say it is fair and fast. Many plaintiffs who have been through the system call it "a kangaroo court." The plaintiffs' bar has in the past produced evidence of an intentionally rigged system. Feminist Gloria Steinem once dubbed it "McJustice."

One veteran Wall Street reporter, Susan Antilla, has spent two decades chronicling the abuses occurring under Wall Street's private justice system while also writing on the myriad other ways Wall Street has tilted the playing field. In her 2002 book, Tales from the Boom Boom Room: Women vs Wall Street, published by Bloomberg Press, Antilla devoted a full chapter to the "No-Court System." The award winning book traversed a pitched five-year Federal court battle in which I and other Wall Street women sued the retail brokerage firm, Smith Barney, the New York Stock Exchange and the National Association of Securities Dealers (NASD) for effectively voiding the nation's civil rights statutes by forcing these employee claims into an industry-run arbitration forum. The lawsuit documented that serious sexual assaults were occurring, as well as an enshrined system of sexual harassment, because Wall Street correctly perceived it had built an impregnable wall of immunity around itself. Wall Street had not only masterminded a "No-Court System," it had carved out a no-law-zone for the financial securities industry.

Just where this kind of no-law system can lead has found a textbook case in the corrupted culture and collapse of Smith Barney's parent, Citigroup, during the 2007-2010 financial crisis. To stay alive, Citigroup was propped up with the largest taxpayer bailout in U.S. history, including a $45 billion equity infusion; over $300 billion in asset guarantees; and more than $2 trillion in initially secret, low-cost loans from the Federal Reserve. Its thank you to the U.S. taxpayer was to be charged with, and admit to, a criminal felony on May 20, 2015 for rigging U.S. foreign currency markets. According to the details in the felony charge brought by the U.S. Justice Department, Citigroup's illegal behavior in the foreign currency rigging matter spanned a period from December 2007 through January 2013. Outrageously, that includes the period after 2008 when Citigroup was being kept alive with taxpayer money. (See Citigroup's broader rap sheet here.)

The arbitration issues exposed by Antilla should have shamed the U.S. into legislative action. But as a testament to the power and money of Wall Street in Congress, bills to overturn Wall Street's no-court system have failed to make it out of committee for decades. In her 2002 book, Antilla provides specifics on how a female broker and a female sales assistant were sexually assaulted by the same male broker in a branch office of Smith Barney. In advance of the arbitration, Smith Barney "forced the two women to undergo examinations by a psychiatrist of the brokerage firm's choosing," writes Antilla. The female broker was "subjected to a grilling by Smith Barney's consultant that included questions about her sex life, the opening of her gynecological records, and queries about her menstrual periods, her marital counseling and her divorce." The female assistant, continues Antilla "was placed in a chair in the middle of a room, was similarly grilled with two-and-a-half hours of questions that ranged from her sexual experience to her childhood." Antilla adds that "in an utterly bizarre moment, he asked her to recite the names of all the U.S. presidents in reverse order," causing her to finally break down in tears.

Read More @ WallStOnParade.com

Obamacare To Unveil "Price Shock" One Week Before The Elections

Posted: 02 May 2016 08:18 PM PDT

The writing was on the wall long before the largest US insurer, UnitedHealth, decided to pull the plug on Obamacare in mid April.  Then, just a week later, Aetna's CEO said Thursday that his company expects to break even, but legislative fixes are needed to make the marketplace sustainable.

"I think a lot of insurance carriers expected red ink, but they didn't expect this much red ink," said Greg Scott, who oversees Deloitte's health plans practice. "... A number of carriers need double-digit increases."

It gets better.

One week ago Marilyn Tavenner, who until January 2015 ran the federal Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services, aka the massive Federal agency that oversaw the rollout of Obamacare and the disastrous implementation of HealthCare.gov and who is now as an insurance lobbyist, said she sees big jumps in Obamacare insurance premiums.

Translation: insurers are not making money, and they need to make money or Obamacare is doomed. Which means even more dramatic rate hikes are about to be unveiled. However, it's not the what but rather the when that is the shock. And, as Politico reports, the timing could not possibly come at a worse time for Democrats.

"Proposed rate hikes are just starting to dribble out, setting up a battle over health insurance costs in a tumultuous presidential election year that will decide the fate of Obamacare."

The headlines are likely to keep coming right up to Election Day since many consumers won't see actual rates until the insurance marketplaces open Nov. 1 — a week before they go to the polls.

That's right: just one week before the election date, Americans will be served with what now appears will be double (if not more) digit increases in their insurance premiums. Politico is spot on in saying that "the last thing Democrats want to contend with just a week before the 2016 presidential election is an outcry over double-digit insurance hikes as millions of Americans begin signing up for Obamacare."

They will have no choice: following years of actual delays to avoid a major public backlash on the critical mandate, this time the hammer is set to fall and it will do so at the worst possible time for Hillary Clinton.

"Any reports of premium increases will immediately become talking points on the campaign trail," said Larry Levitt, senior vice president for special initiatives at the nonprofit Kaiser Family Foundation. "We're in an election where the very future of the law will be debated." Democrats say they will mount a vigorous defense of a law that has provided 20 million people with coverage — and point to Republicans' failure to propose any coherent alternative to Obamacare.

Which is another way to say Democrats are near panic.

"The Republicans will try to make Clinton own the higher prices, but the problem is that Republicans have no alternative or answer," said Anna Greenberg, a Democratic pollster. "They are in the position of taking away insurance if they repeal Obamacare."

Somehow we doubt that would be such terrible news for all those millions of Americans whose mandatory "tax" (thank you Supreme Court) subsidies keep the program alive. We also doubt that anyone among America's middle class will shed a tear if Obamacare is gone.

Which brings us to the key question: just how much of a shocker will be unveiled days before the election? According to Politico, and here we disagree as we have seen price increases in the high double digit ragne, "average rate hikes have been modest in the past despite apocalyptic predictions: premiums increased by an average of 8 percent this year, according to an administration analysis. That report "debunks the myth" that Obamacare customers experienced double-digit rate hikes, said Department of Health and Human Services spokesman Ben Wakana."

Where we do agree with Politico is that "there are reasons to think the next round may be different." Blue Cross and Blue Shield plans, which dominate many state exchanges, saw profits plummet by 75 percent between 2013 and 2015, according to an analysis by A.M. Best Co. A chief reason for the financial woes: "the intensity of losses in the exchange segment."

"I have to raise prices because I have to assume the worst," said Martin Hickey, CEO of New Mexico Health Connections, one of the surviving co-ops, which expects to increase prices by roughly a third for 2017. "Whether it stabilizes or not, we can't take the risk."

Even New York-based Oscar, the much ballyhooed, tech-savvy startup bankrolled with billions in venture capital dollar, is sputtering. Medical costs for Oscar's individual customers in New York, where it has the most customers, outstripped premiums by nearly 50 percent last year, according to financial filings.

"In some cases the hole is getting deeper rather than getting better," said Deloitte's Scott.

In short: expect majour double-digit percent increases in premium prices, and not just because Obamacare is fatally flawed, but for two key reasons we warned about years ago when Obamacare was being rolled out: i) not enough participants to make it economically scalable and ii) those who did sign up are so sick that they promptly soaked up all the externalities.

From Politico:

One big reason is lower-than-expected enrollment of younger, often healthier people who balance the costs of those who require more costly care. Roughly 12.7 million Americans signed up for Obamacare plans during the most recent open enrollment period. That's far below the 22 million projected by the Congressional Budget Office, and it's certain to decline as some drop out.

 

"The pool is far less healthy than we forecast," said Brad Wilson, CEO of Blue Cross Blue Shield of North Carolina, which says it lost $400 million on its exchange business during the first two years and is weighing whether to compete for Obamacare customers in 2017. "That's an issue not just here in North Carolina, but all over. … We need more healthy people in the pool."

Then again, the healthy people have no incentive to sign up and would rather pay the penalty charge instead of spending far more to subsidize those who are not healthy. Sure enough, as with all epically flawed government projects, the cracks in Obamacare became apparent with time.

There's a growing realization the financial penalty for failing to obtain coverage is an insufficient cudgel to convince younger Americans to enroll. The fee for 2016 is $695, or 2.5 percent of income, whichever is higher. Just 28 percent of HealthCare.gov customers for 2016 were between the ages of 18 and 34, significantly below the 35 percent threshold typically considered necessary for a balanced marketplace.

 

"It wasn't enough of a hammer," said Kevin Fitzgerald, an insurance lawyer with Foley & Lardner. "You need a lot of healthy people to sign up to make the numbers work. Obviously that didn't happen."

Ah, we get it now: only Obamacare had "enough of a hammer" it would work like a charm.

And then there was the timing arbitrage. Health plans have complained that Obamacare's enrollment rules are too loose, allowing people to wait until they need medical care to sign up for coverage, and then to halt payments once they've received treatment.

This may work for Netflix, but it is an absolute disaster when it affects a mandatory tax program that is supposed to benefit everyone.

The Obama administration is addressing some of these concerns: It has eliminated some reasons Obamacare customers can use to sign up outside the standard enrollment season. And it plans to require proof from exchange customers that they're eligible to sign up outside the normal window because, say, they've moved or had a kid, which are among the most common reasons.

Alas, such "real time fixes" also never work and end up being gamed by the consumers every step of the way. Which is why health plan officials say more needs to be done to stabilize the markets, for instance, by giving them greater flexibility to sell different kinds of policies. "We have real concerns about the next year or two based on the experience so far," said Ceci Connolly, CEO of the Alliance of Community Health Plans, which represents 22 plans. "Even for our members that are getting close to breaking even on this, they say that it's a really challenging and unpredictable environment."

Most health plans remain optimistic the markets will eventually stabilize. Security Health Plan, which does business in 41 Wisconsin counties, attracted three times as many exchange customers as anticipated during its first year of Obamacare business.

"Was it a financial winner? No," said John Kelly, the health plan's chief marketing and operations officer. "We expected to take losses and we did."

But no more, which is why literally in the days heading up to the general election, the US population will be served a very unpleasant reminder of what happens when big state goes out of control, and that there is no such thing as "free healthcare."

Just how much of a hit to Hillary's election chances the "Obamacare shock" will be, we will find out on November 8.

Gold & Silver Rising Fast Amidst Coming Death of Fiat Currency – David Morgan Important Interview

Posted: 02 May 2016 08:00 PM PDT

The First Casualty Is Truth

Posted: 02 May 2016 07:40 PM PDT

by Jeff Thomas, International Man:

In the fifth century B.C., Greek dramatist Aeschylus said, "In war, truth is the first casualty." Quite so. Whenever national leaders decide to go on the warpath for the sake of their own ambition or self-aggrandisement, it's the citizenry that will pay the bloody price for their aspirations. Since war is rarely desired by the citizenry, it has to be sold to them. Some form of deception, exaggeration, or outright lies must be put forward to con the populace into getting on board with the idea.

War, after all, represents a monumental failure of national leaders to serve the rightful national objectives of a citizenry – peace and prosperity. Of course, in the case of an empire going to war, this represents a monumental failure on steroids – the outcome may well be world war in such a case.

Readers of this publication will no doubt be well-versed in the knowledge that, when an empire is nearing the end of its period of domination, war is almost always used by leaders as a last-ditch attempt to maintain order. (During wartime, a populace tends to focus more on the war than the failure of its leaders. In addition, they're likely to tolerate the removal of freedoms by their leaders to be "patriotic".)

This being the case, we might surmise that an empire in decline would be likely to display similar symptoms to a country at war. One of those symptoms might well be the loss of truth, not just as it relates to warfare, but as it relates to the society as a whole. A nation in decline might even welcome the disappearance of truth, as it would allow the people to continue to feel good about themselves at a time when a truthful outlook would be too unpleasant to be tolerable. Further, the closer to collapse the country may be (economically, politically, and socially), the more extreme the self-created loss of truth would likely be.

Let's have a look at a few cultural examples and see if that premise seems viable.

Silver Versus Chocolate
As I described in January in "Running Out of Candy," Californian Mark Dice stood on a street corner offering passers-by either a free ten-ounce bar of silver or a free bar of Hershey's chocolate. Without fail, each one chose the chocolate. Even though Mister Dice was standing in front of a coin shop where the silver bar could be redeemed, they rejected the silver which they knew had to have greater value.

Only twenty years ago, people would have been far less likely to deny truth in favour of a falsehood that was more palatable – the instant gratification of candy. In effect, this is the abandonment of basic truth in favour of whatever perception is more pleasant.

Kim Jong-Un on “Dancing With the Stars"
Talk show host Jimmy Kimmel recently asked people on the street if they had seen Korean leader Kim Jong-Un on the popular television show "Dancing With the Stars." Clearly they had not, as the idea was absurd, yet many answered yes, then went on to describe their appraisal of his performance as though they'd seen it. (Some went into depth, expounding on the artistry and social value of the non-existent performance.) The interviewer went on to remind the interviewees that Kim Jong-Un is in fact a dictator and asked whether they thought it was in good taste for him to have pointed a machine gun at the audience. In spite of the now-blatant absurdity, interviewees continued to pretend they had actually witnessed the performance, offering their opinions on how well he had performed. They responded in accordance with what appeared to be expected of them rather than choose the less-pleasant option of saying, "I'm sorry, but I didn't see it."

Now, the video was clearly offered by Jimmy Kimmel to show his audience "how dumb people can be," but it demonstrates something more. It shows us that a significant segment of the population is quite prepared to simply abandon reality by, first, pretending to have witnessed something they have not and, second, offering firm and even complex opinions on something that did not occur.

Read More @ InternationalMan.com

Robert Appel: The brink of economic collapse -- How did this happen?

Posted: 02 May 2016 06:39 PM PDT

9:38p ET Monday, May 2, 2016

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Profit Confidential's Robert Appel's commentary today is headlined "The Brink of Economic Collapse? How Did This Happen?" His answer is the ever-intensifying manipulation and distortion of markets by central banks and their agents. Appel's commentary is posted at Profit Confidential here:

http://www.profitconfidential.com/economy/the-brink-of-economic-collapse...

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org



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Every Time This Has Happened, A Recession Followed

Posted: 02 May 2016 05:58 PM PDT

Three months ago the Fed released its Fourth Quarter "Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices", which revealed something ominous. It showed that in Q4, lending standards tightened for the second consecutive quarter. This was a problem because as Deutsche Bank pointed out at the time two consecutive quarters of tightening Commercial & Industrial loan standards "has never happened before without it signalling an eventual move into recession and a notable default cycle. Once we have 2 such quarters lending standards don't net loosen again until the start of the next cycle."

As of today, we now have three consecutive quarters of tightening lending standards. In fact, based on the latest survey, net lending standards tightened even more than during Q4 as shown in the chart below, and are now the tightest on net since the financial crisis. Needless to say, if a recession and a default cycle has always followed two quarters of tighter lending conditions, three quarters does not make it better.

This is what the Fed said:

On balance, a moderate net fraction of banks reported a tightening of lending standards for C&I loans to large and middle-market firms over the past three months. Meanwhile, only a modest net fraction of banks reported tightening lending standards for C&I loans to small firms. Banks reported that they tightened some C&I loan terms for large and middle-market firms: A moderate net fraction of banks reported that they had increased premiums charged on riskier loans, a modest net fraction of banks reported that loan covenants had tightened, and most other terms to such firms remained basically unchanged on net. Banks reported mixed responses regarding changes in loan terms for small firms. A majority of the domestic respondents that tightened either standards or terms on C&I loans over the past three months cited a less favorable or more uncertain economic outlook as well as a worsening of industry-specific problems affecting borrowers as important reasons. Meanwhile, a significant net fraction of foreign respondents reported a tightening of lending standards for C&I loans.

In other words, credit availability is bad and getting worse, and may explain why the ECB had no choice but to shock the credit pipeline into action when Draghi announced that the ECB would monetize corporate bonds (and soon enough, junk bonds).

And while our focus looking at this data is on the implied probability (based on historical precedented, now at 100%) of a recession, Bank of America's high yield strategist Michael Contopoulos is looking  at the implications of continued lending tightness on the credit market, where he has been uncharacteristically gloomy for many moths. This is what he said:

Banks tightening their grip on lending

 

Today's Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices confirmed several of our concerns from last year; that in the face of deteriorating corporate fundamentals, a weak economic outlook, industry specific woes in the commodity space and global markets that have been volatile, banks would pull back the reins on lending. Below we highlight some of the details of the report that we think are relevant when considering the durability of the post February 11th high yield rally.

  • The two best predictors of the US default rate are C&I lending and the proportion of downgrades to upgrades within high yield. With both deteriorating over the last several quarters our model now suggests a default rate over the next 12 months of 5.4%. We note, however, that the model this time last year forecast a 2.7% default rate yet with the high degree of Energy defaults, we have actually realized a 5.3% rate as of April 30th. It stands to reason, then, that our model, usually highly accurate in its calculation, could be understating the actual default rate over the next 12 months. We think there is upside to our forecast of 5-6% this year, and caution investors that non-commodity defaults are also likely to rise absent a complete opening of capital markets.

  • The survey noted that banks tightened their lending standards on C&I and commercial real estate loans while enforcing material adverse changes clauses or other covenants to limit draws on existing Energy credit lines. Late last year and earlier this year we wrote that one of our fears was that regional banks in areas hit hard by the energy rout would be less willing to lend than before the collapse in oil. Our theory has been that as banks set aside reserves for their Energy exposure, they will tighten lending standards in other areas. Sure enough, the survey noted that "on balance, banks indicated a spillover from the energy sector onto credit quality of loans made to businesses and households located in energy-sector-dependent regions." As these areas of the US experience further hardship, we expect the quality of borrower to deteriorate and lending standards further tighten in these regions. This likely means the one area of lending strength, the consumer, could begin to realize tightening later in the year.
  • Demand also waned for C&I loans, as large and middle market firms in particular noted decreased investment in PPE and a decline in financing needs for M&A, accounts receivable and inventories. In our mind, a lack of demand could prove to be indicative of an economy that has not only stalled, but one in which corporate CEOs and CFOs lack confidence in. Additionally, with little capex to cut, deteriorating assets, a labor market that is both tight and unproductive, and a bank lending environment that is becoming harder to leverage, we wonder how long it will be before corporates begin to cut headcount.

The survey noted that a "majority of the domestic respondents that tightened either standards or terms on C&I loans over the past three months cited a less favorable or more uncertain economic outlook as well as a worsening of industry-specific problems affecting borrowers" as the reason for tightening. As we read this statement, our first thought is that the problems are not just an Energy story any longer.

What all of the above means is simple: either lending standards will ease or the Fed will have no choice but to do what the ECB has done, and jam the credit channel open by actively backstopping bond - and loan - issuance. Either that, or the central banks will have to engage in more coordinated commodity manipulation attempts, since at the very core of the deteriorating lending standards is the collapse in the oil price which in turn has forced banks to collapse revolver availability and halt future issuance until they have some visibility on where the price of oil stabilizes.  Perhaps instead of monetizing loans, Yellen will covertly greenlight whoever is the global activist central bank du jour, with a mission to monetize enough oil to push it another $10-20 higher. At that point we will eagerly look forward to Saudi Arabia's response as crude above $50 will mean virtually the entire shale patch is back online.

On the other hand, if just like the BOJ last week the Fed does nothing , we have little reason to doubt the historical precedent in which case the countdown to the next recession can officially begin.

Debt: The Key Factor Connecting Energy & The Economy

Posted: 02 May 2016 05:35 PM PDT

Submitted by Gail Tverberg via Our Finite World blog,

There are many who believe that the use of energy is critical to the growth of the economy. In fact, I am among these people. The thing that is not as apparent is that growth in energy consumption is dependent on the growth of debt. Both energy and debt have characteristics that are close to “magic,” with respect to the growth of the economy. Economic growth can only take place when growing debt (or a very close substitute, such as company stock) is available to enable the use of energy products.

The reason why debt is important is because energy products enable the creation of many kinds of capital goods, and these goods are often bought with debt. Commercial examples would include metal tools, factories, refineries, pipelines, electricity generation plants, electricity transmission lines, schools, hospitals, roads, gold coins, and commercial vehicles. Consumers also benefit because energy products allow the production of houses and apartments, automobiles, busses, and passenger trains. In a sense, the creation of these capital goods is one form of “energy profit” that is obtained from the consumption of energy.

The reason debt is needed is because while energy products can indeed produce a large “energy profit,” this energy profit is spread over many years in the future. In order to actually be able to obtain the benefit of this energy profit in a timeframe where the economy can use it, the financial system needs to bring forward  some or all of the energy profit to an earlier timeframe. It is only when businesses can do this, that they have money to pay workers. This time shifting also allows businesses to earn a financial profit themselves. Governments indirectly benefit as well, because they can then tax the higher wages of workers and businesses, so that  governmental services can be provided, including paved roads and good schools.

Debt and Other Promises

Clearly, if the economy were producing only items for current consumption–for example, if hunters and gatherers were only finding food to eat and sticks to burn, so that they could cook this food, then there would be no need for the time shifting function of debt. But there would likely still be a need for promises, such as, “If you will hunt for food, I will gather plant food and care for the children.” With the use of promises, it is possible to have division of labor and economies of scale. Promises allow a business to pay workers at the end of the month, instead of every day.

As an economy becomes more complex, its needs change. At first, central markets can be used to facilitate the exchange of goods. If one person brings more to the market than he takes home, a record of his credit balance can be kept on a clay tablet for use another day. This approach works as long as the credit can only be used at that particular market. If the credit balance is to be used elsewhere, or if the balance is to hold its value for a period of years, a different, more flexible approach is needed.

Over the years, economies have developed a wide range of debt and debt-like products. For the purpose of this discussion, I am including all of them as debt, broadly defined. One type is what we think of as “money.” Money is really a portable promise for a share of the future output of the economy. It can provide time shifting, if this money is held for a time before it is spent.

Another type of debt is a loan with a fixed term, such as a mortgage or car loan. Such a loan provides time shifting, allowing something to be paid for over a significant share of its life. Equity funding for a company is not really a loan, but it, too, allows time shifting. Those purchasing shares of stock do so with the expectation that they will be repaid in the future through price appreciation and dividends. It thus acts much like a loan, for the purpose of this discussion. There are many other types of promises regarding future funding that are closely related–for example, government loan guarantees, derivatives, ETFs, and government pension promises. All indirectly add to the willingness of people and businesses to spend money now–someone else has somehow made promises that remove uncertainty regarding future income flows or future payment obligations.

The Magic Things Debt Does

It is not immediately obvious how important debt is. In fact, neoclassical economists have tended to ignore the role of debt. I see several, almost magic, ways that debt helps the economy.

  1. Debt brings forward the date when an individual or company can afford to purchase capital goods. Without debt, the only way to afford such a purchase would be to save up the full price in advance. Using debt, a business can add a new machine to allow it to produce more goods before the business saves up money from its prior operations. A young person can afford to buy a house or car, long before he could save up funds for such a purchase. With the help of debt, the price of capital goods can be financed over much of their working life.
  2. Adding debt raises the prices of commodities. Commodities, such as lumber, iron, copper, and oil are what we use to make cars, houses, and factories. “Demand” for these commodities rises because more people and businesses can afford to buy capital goods that use these energy products. Often these capital goods also use energy products over their lifetime (for example, gasoline to operate a car), so there is a long-term impact on the demand for energy products, in addition to the demand associated with making the capital goods. Of course, with higher prices, it becomes profitable to extract oil and other energy resources from more marginal areas of production. More companies enter the field. As long as prices remain high, they are able to earn a profit.
  3. Adding debt stimulates the economy, almost like turning the heat up on a stove. When debt is added for any purpose–even starting a war–it starts a whole chain of purchases, each of which acts to stimulate the economy. If a young person takes out a loan to buy a car, the purchase of the car leads to the salesman having more money to buy goods for his family. The company selling the cars is able to make a bigger profit, which the business can reinvest or pay to shareholders as dividends. The purchase of the car leads to more demand for metals used to make the car, and thus tends to increase the number of mining jobs. Each new worker in turn is able to buy more goods and services, starting a beneficial cycle that gradually radiates out through the economy.
  4. Adding debt tends to lead to higher asset prices. Clearly, (from Item 2), adding debt can raise the price of commodities. Adding debt can also make it possible for more people to afford real estate and investments in the stock market. For example, Japan greatly ramped up its debt level between 1965 and 1989.
    Figure 1. Annual growth in non-financial debt (in Yen), separated into private and government debt, based on Bank of International Settlements data.

    Figure 1. Annual growth in non-financial debt (in Yen), separated into private and government debt, based on Bank of International Settlements data.

    During this time, a major price bubble occurred in land prices (Figure 2).

    Figure 2. Land Prices in Japan. Figure from Of Two Minds by Charles Hugh Smith.

    Figure 2. Land Prices in Japan. Figure from Of Two Minds by Charles Hugh Smith.

    There is a reason why this bubble could occur. Because of the stimulating effect that debt had on the economy, more people had the wealth to buy real estate, especially if this too was sold on credit. Once private debt levels stopped rising rapidly, price levels crashed both for land and stock prices. TheBubbleBubble.com explains what happened: “By 1989, Japanese officials became increasingly concerned with the country’s growing asset bubbles and the Bank of Japan decided to tighten its monetary policy.” Doing so popped both the home and stock price bubbles.

  5. Adding debt adds to GDP. GDP is a measure of the goods and services produced during a period. Many of these goods and services are bought using debt, so it is not surprising that adding more debt tends to add more GDP. The amount of GDP added is less than the amount of debt added, even when inflation growth is considered as part of GDP.
    Figure 3. United States increase in debt over five year period, divided by increase in GDP (with inflation!) in that five year period. GDP from Bureau of Economic Analysis; debt is non-financial debt, from BIS compilation for all countries.

    Figure 3. United States increase in debt over five-year period, divided by increase in GDP (including inflation) in that five-year period. GDP from Bureau of Economic Analysis; debt is non-financial debt, from BIS compilation for all countries.

    The general tendency is toward the need for an increasing amount of debt per dollar of GDP added. This is especially the case when oil prices are high. In the US, the ratio of non-financial debt to GDP added was almost down to 1:1 for a time, back when oil prices were less than $20 per dollar (in today’s dollars).

  6. Adding debt tends to increase wealth disparity.  Adding debt tends to increasingly divide an economy into “haves” and “have-nots.” Many of the “haves” own the means of production, including an ever-increasing amount of capital goods, and thus can earn profits and dividends from these capital goods. Others are high-level officials in businesses and the government who earn high salaries. Interest payments also tend to transfer payments from the poor to the more wealthy. We might say that the common laborers are increasingly “frozen out” of the economy that otherwise is heating up. This shift started to take place in the United States about 1981.
    Figure 3. Chart comparing income gains by the top 10% to income gains by the bottom 90% by economist Emmanuel Saez. Based on an analysis IRS data, published in Forbes.

    Figure 4. Chart comparing income gains by the top 10% to income gains by the bottom 90% by economist Emmanuel Saez. Based on an analysis IRS data, published in Forbes.

  7. Adding debt is something that governments can influence, either by lowering interest rates or by borrowing the money themselves.  Actions by governments to reduce interest rates can be effective, because they lower monthly payments that borrowers need to make to take out a loan of a given amount. Thus, they tend to encourage more borrowing. In Figure 5, below, note that the decrease in interest rates in 1981 corresponds precisely with the rise in debt to GDP ratios is Figure 3 and the shift in income patterns in Figure 4.
    Figure 4. Ten year treasury interest rates, based on St. Louis Fed data.

    Figure 5. Ten year treasury interest rates, based on St. Louis Fed data.

    Figure 6 later in this post shows that changes in Quantitative Easting (which affects interest rates and the level of the US dollar relative to other currencies) also correspond to sharp changes in oil prices. Changes in the level of the dollar also affect demand for oil. See a recent post related to this issue.

What Goes Wrong as More Debt Is Added?

It is clear from the discussion so far that quite a few things go wrong. These are a few additional items.

1.There are limits to government manipulation of debt levels.  First, interest rates eventually drop so low that they become negative in some countries. Negative interest rates tend to cause bank profitability to drop and lead to hoarding by those who planned to use savings for retirement.

Second, government borrowing doesn’t work as well at stimulating the economy as investments made by the private sector. A likely reason is that private sector investments are made when the borrower believes that the return on the investment will be high enough to pay back the debt with interest, and still make a profit. Government investments often do not meet this standard. Some reports indicate that  Japan’s government has used borrowed money to fund bridges to nowhere and houses with no one home. China’s centrally directed economy seems to lead to similar over-borrowing problems. Chinese businesses also borrow to cover interest on prior loans.

2. Ratios of debt to GDP tend to rise, worrying government leaders. Debt is a way of accessing the benefits of Btus of energy, in advance of the time they are really available. As the amount of easy-to-extract oil depletes, the cost of oil extraction gradually rises. Unfortunately, the amount of “work” a barrel of oil can perform–for example, how far it can make a truck travel–doesn’t rise correspondingly. As a result, the higher price simply reflects increasing inefficiency of extraction, and thus the need to use a larger share of the economy’s output to extract oil. The amount of debt needed to keep GDP rising keeps growing, in part because oil is becoming higher priced to extract, and in part because goods that use oil in their production also tend to rise in cost. As a result, the ratio of debt to GDP tends to spiral upward.

3. Rising debt allows for a temporary false valuation of the benefit of energy products. The true value of oil and other energy products comes primarily from the Btus of energy they provide, such as how far a truck can be made to travel. Thus we would expect that the true value of energy products would remain relatively constant over time. If anything, the value of energy products will tend to rise by a small amount (say, 1% per year) as technology improvements lead to growing efficiency in their use.

What we think of as the magic hand of the economy determines a price for commodities at all times, based on “supply” and “demand.” This price clearly is not very close to the future energy profit that the energy products will actually provide, because it tends to vary widely over time. We don’t know what the true value of a barrel of oil to society is. If the true value is $100 per barrel (in today’s money), then back when oil prices were $10 or $20 per barrel (in today’s money), there would have been $80 to $90 (equal to $100 minus the actual price) of “energy profit” that could be pumped back into the economy as productivity gains for workers, interest on debt, and dividends on stock, tax revenue, and money for new investment. The economy could (and did) grow quickly. There was less need for added debt, because goods made with oil were cheap. Wages for workers could rise rapidly, as they did in the 1950 to 1968 period (Figure 4).

If prices approach the true value of oil (assumed to be $100 per barrel), the extra energy profit would pretty much disappear. The economy would increasingly become “hollowed out.”  Productivity gains that lead to wage gains would mostly disappear. Businesses would find it hard to earn adequate profits, and would cut back on dividends. Some companies might need to borrow money in order to pay dividends. World economic growth would slow.

Prices can even temporarily overshoot their true value to the economy, then drop sharply back. This happens because prices are set by demand, and demand depends on a combination of wage levels and debt levels. Oil prices can be high for a while, if borrowing is temporarily high, and then fall back as it becomes clear that profitable investments are not really available if oil is at such a high price level.

4. Wages of non-elite workers tend to drop too low. Workers play a very special role in the economy: they both (a) provide the labor for the economy and (b) act as consumers for the economy. If workers aren’t earning enough, there is a problem with many of them not being able to buy the goods and services the economy produces. This is especially the case for purchases such as homes and cars, which are often bought using debt. Indirectly, this lack of ability to afford the output of the system puts a downward pressure on the price of commodities, particularly energy commodities. Prices may fall below the cost of production, or may not rise high enough.

Figure 6. World oil supply and prices based on EIA data.

Figure 6. World oil supply and prices based on EIA data.

The reason that wages of the less educated, non-managerial workers tend to lag behind is related to the issue of diminishing returns. A workaround is a more “complex” society, with bigger businesses, bigger government, more capital goods, and more debt. In some cases, manufacturing is shifted to parts of the world with lower wages. Non-elite workers increasingly find themselves with too small a share of the output of the economy. Figure 7 shows some influences that tend to lead to too low wages for non-elite workers.

Figure 7. Illustration by author of why an economy that doesn't grow leads to falling wages for workers.

Figu

Gold Price Closed at $1294.70 up $5.50 or 0.43%

Posted: 02 May 2016 04:56 PM PDT

2-May-16PriceChange% Change
Gold Price, $/oz1,294.705.500.43%
Silver Price, $/oz17.66-0.13-0.75%
Gold/Silver Ratio73.3290.8571.18%
Silver/Gold Ratio0.0136-0.0002-1.17%
Platinum1,084.907.000.65%
Palladium625.00-2.90-0.46%
S&P 5002,081.4316.130.78%
Dow17,891.16117.520.66%
Dow in GOLD $s285.660.670.23%
Dow in GOLD oz13.820.030.23%
Dow in SILVER oz1,013.3214.181.42%
US Dollar Index92.62-0.41-0.44%
IMPORTANT NOTE: The following are wholesale, not retail, prices. To figure our retail selling price, multiply the "ask" price by 1.035. To figure our retail buying price, multiple the "bid" price by 0.97. Lower commissions apply to larger orders, higher commissions to very small orders.

SPOT GOLD:1,292.30   
GOLDFine Tr.Oz.BIDASK$/oz
American Eagle1.001,329.781,335.591,335.59
1/2 AE0.50658.56681.691,363.38
1/4 AE0.25332.51347.311,389.22
1/10 AE0.10135.59141.511,415.07
Aust. 100 corona0.981,260.381,269.381,295.02
British sovereign0.24306.49319.491,357.22
French 20 franc0.19243.08247.081,323.42
Krugerrand1.001,303.931,313.931,313.93
Maple Leaf1.001,302.301,316.301,316.30
1/2 Maple Leaf0.50743.07678.461,356.92
1/4 Maple Leaf0.25329.54345.691,382.76
1/10 Maple Leaf0.10136.98140.861,408.61
Mexican 50 peso1.211,547.091,558.091,292.27
.9999 bar1.001,296.821,304.301,304.30
SPOT SILVER:17.55   
SILVERFine Tr.Oz.BIDASK$/oz
VG+ Morgan $B4 19050.7722.5026.0033.99
VG+ Peace dollar0.7717.5020.0026.14
90% silver coin bags0.7213,048.7513,334.7518.65
US 40% silver 1/2s0.305,059.255,221.2517.70
100 oz .999 bar100.001,780.001,805.0018.05
10 oz .999 bar10.00177.00182.0018.20
1 oz .999 round1.0017.6518.1118.11
Am Eagle, 200 oz Min1.0019.0520.3020.30
SPOT PLATINUM:1,084.90   
PLATINUMFine Tr.Oz.BIDASK$/oz
Plat. Platypus1.001,099.901,129.901,129.90

Y'all remember, of course, that the main driver of currency exchange rates is the relative interest rate. "Relative" here means "interest rate LESS expected loss from inflation." But that little fillip aside, interest rates drive exchange rates. 

And the Fed lured folks into believing they would raise rates. Blew smoke so effectively that the US dollar index rose from 80 in July 2014 to 100+ in March 2015. 

Alas, as every poker player knows, you can only blow smoke so long before you have to lay down cards. Last September, the Fed passed on raising rates, just flinched. Last December, they raised their discount rate a contemptible 0,.25%, but even that little spit in the wind nearly wrecked the world's stock markets. 
Since September the dollar has taken sucker punches from one palooka after another, trashy ECB and scummy BoJ. Finally last week the Fed flinched again, and the BoJ announced it would NOT take its rate lower into negative territory. Relatively, that was a RISE in Japanese rates, a higher rise since the Fed like a drunk trying to quit shoved off its deadline another four or five months into the always-disappearing future. 

In the last six trading days the US dollar index has dropped every single day, from 95.08 to 92.62 today, a 2.6% loss. That's big in the currency world. Thursday it dropped 69 basis points, Friday 70, and today another 41 (0.44%) for that 92.62 close. Lo, one beginneth to recall fondue, as the cubed cheese begins to heat up and deform in the pot. What's that called? Right, MELT-DOWN.

At 92.62 the dollar stands on the very cliff's edge, backwards, balancing on its toes. Y'all go look for yourselves, http://schrts.co/O5dDKu 

Only thing going for the US dollar index is the Commitments of Traders reports, which argue for a reversal. However that won't argue very hard with a close below 92.50. And behold! From 92.50 back to the 2014 breakout at 80, no support appeareth, no, not none, leading on to deduce that cracking that 92.50 will bring an epic dollar plunge, or dare I say, melt down? 

Miss not this: if the dollar does turn around here, it raises suspicions it will run back to 100. 
While the dollar is melting down, the yen is melting up. It lost 0.07% today, but still closed at 94.10. Lo, the chart, http://schrts.co/UuqBFa

Euro is profiting from the dollar's distress. Rose 0.75% to $1.1532. It has moved furiously sideways for the past 12 months, but today closed above 1.1500 for the first time since early 2015 (save for a one day spike). If it escapes thru the range's top at $1.1500+, it ought to run. Yet who can tell with currencies? It's a fool that tries to read intent in a central banker's heart. 

Stocks gained today, but when you lose 260 points over two days and gain back 117 points the third, that ain't progress. Well, maybe that's progress in socialist countries, but not in sane lands. Whoa. Come to think of it, there ain't no sane lands in the world today.

Dow gained 117.52 (0.66%) to 17,891.16. SP500 added 16.13 (0.78%) to 2,081.43. I will forbear to mention my suspicions of Nice Government Men painting the tape or jimmying the prices. Shucks, y'all are probably already suspecting that all on your own. 

Gold & silver prices couldn't agree today. The gold price climbed $5.50 (0.43%) to $1,294.70 while silver price slid 13.3¢ (0.75%) to 1765.6¢. 

Meseemeth no problem lieth here. Gold is taking leadership out of silver's hands (the gold/ silver ratio jumped up today). The gold price backed up to the breakout point with a low at $1,289.60. Normal action, nothing to mourn & weep & shiver about. Touched $1,306 at its high, and the BIG TARGET is $1,308, the 2015 high. Should gold close above that point, 'twill be the first time since 2011 it has closed above a previous year's high.

Y'all paying attention? This is a momentous step. Gigantic. Portentous. 

Silver did nothing to be ashamed of. It remains above every close in this move from December save Thursday's & Friday's. It's a well deserved pause before shooting higher.

THE STICK IN THE SPOKES: Yes, there's always one. For gold & silver it is the frowning CoT reports, which favor not higher prices. However, remember that surprises in bull moves come to the Upside. Those CoT stats can stay out of whack quite a while before they wreak their vengeance. Overbought can always get overboughter. However, it behooves our peace of mind & equinimity to keep reminding ourselves that speculative buying is driving this, and if any of the drivers weaken or disappear (like the US dollar rallying), it could quickly end.

Put it into perspective. I'm only talking about this current rally. Silver & gold completed their 2011-2015 correction in December. Next five to 8 years both will move so much higher I am loathe to name numbers, lest y'all send after me the men with the jacket that buckles in the back.

My son Christian is trying to sell his house here on the Top of the World Farm & asked me to give y'all a link to it, so here 'tis, http://bit.ly/1pXfBBf It was built in 2011. Pretty place. Peaceful. 


Also, I have the temerity to remind y'all of my heartfelt request. I have to have foot surgery on Friday, 6 May, and would deeply appreciate y'all's prayers. Thanks in advance.

Aurum et argentum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2016, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission. To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 18 ounces of silver.  US $ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.

Ted Cruz debates with Trump supporter in Indiana

Posted: 02 May 2016 04:30 PM PDT

While at a campaign stop in Indiana, Republican presidential candidate Ted Cruz ventured over to a gathering of Trump supporters and talked his own campaign versus Trump's with a voter. The Financial Armageddon Economic Collapse Blog tracks trends and forecasts , futurists , visionaries ,...

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Full Speech: Donald Trump Holds Rally in Carmel, IN (5-2-16)

Posted: 02 May 2016 03:30 PM PDT

 Monday, May 2, 2016: Full replay of the Donald Trump for President rally in Carmel, IN at The Center for the Performing Arts. Full Speech: Donald Trump Holds Rally in Carmel, IN (5-2-16) The Financial Armageddon Economic Collapse Blog tracks trends and forecasts , futurists , visionaries ,...

[[ This is a content summary only. Visit http://www.newsbooze.com or http://www.figanews.com for full links, other content, and more! ]]

Jeff Berwick on the Collapse of the Current Societal Pardadigm: Gold, Dollar, Parenting & Anarchism

Posted: 02 May 2016 03:04 PM PDT

TOPICS IN THIS INTERVIEW:00:30 Introduction for Jeff Berwick01:50 Donald Trump & 2016 Election, Jeff thinks Hillary Clinton will Win05:00 What do Mexicans think of US Politics06:45 Gold, Death of US Dollar, Bitcoin and Federal Reserve Interest Rates10:00 What is the Dollar Vigilante most...

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Jonathan Cahn: Last Warnıng to Amerıca 100% Dollar Wıll Collapse End of 2016

Posted: 02 May 2016 02:30 PM PDT

Jonathan Cahn: Last Warnıng to Amerıca 100% Dollar Wıll Collapse End of 2016 Economic collapse and financial crisis is rising any moment. Getting informed about collapse and crisis may earn you, or prevent to lose money. Do you want to be informed with Max Keiser, Alex Jones, Gerald Celente, Peter...

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Shocking News by Imran Hosein | Armageddon -The Evilest of the Evil Times to Begin in 2016

Posted: 02 May 2016 01:30 PM PDT

Shocking News by Sheikh Imran Hosein | Armageddon - The Evilest of the Evil Time to at the End of This Year Sheikh Imran Hosein Latest 2016 The Financial Armageddon Economic Collapse Blog tracks trends and forecasts , futurists , visionaries , free investigative journalists ,...

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Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts - Reverse Algo Engines

Posted: 02 May 2016 01:04 PM PDT

Donald Trump's Foreign Policy Address

Posted: 02 May 2016 12:30 PM PDT

Remarks from April 27, 2016 in Washington, D.C. The Financial Armageddon Economic Collapse Blog tracks trends and forecasts , futurists , visionaries , free investigative journalists , researchers , Whistelblowers , truthers and many more

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GoldSeek Radio interviews GATA Chairman Bill Murphy

Posted: 02 May 2016 12:03 PM PDT

3p ET Monday, May 2, 2016

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

GoldSeek Radio's Chris Waltzek interviews GATA Chairman Bill Murphy, discussing, among other things, the refusal of the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, William Dudley, to answer whether the bank is involved in gold swaps; the increasing accumulation of gold by central banks in China and Russia; and the recent strength in monetary metals prices. The interview is 12 minutes long and begins at the 32:07 mark at GoldSeek Radio here:

http://news.goldseek.com/radio/1462213502.php

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org



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Puerto Rico Declares Bankruptcy today

Posted: 02 May 2016 12:02 PM PDT

They won't even release the PR bankruptcy to MSM for brain dead population until AFTER the elections....and then only in as much as to inform us they have indebted us another 3 trillion in national debt. The Financial Armageddon Economic Collapse Blog tracks trends and forecasts ,...

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Illuminati have a SHOCKING plan for 2016

Posted: 02 May 2016 11:30 AM PDT

Exposed! The shocking plan for 2016 and beyond that has been secretly in the works for many years. The illuminati / Luciferian agenda of the anti-Christ is undeniable and this video shows one of its main schemes of deception and manipulation. The Financial Armageddon Economic Collapse Blog...

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Prepare for Total Collapse Moral, Economic, and Spiritual-Bob Griswold-

Posted: 02 May 2016 11:00 AM PDT

Bob Griswold of Ready Made Resources is back for the second half of our interview. We talk about the need to stay vigilant and be prepared for the inevitable wholesale collapse of American society. He discusses how to be medically prepared for disasters or a mass terrorist attacks which we also...

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A Currency War Battle That Europe and Japan Can’t Afford To Lose

Posted: 02 May 2016 10:47 AM PDT

The dollar is tanking lately. From a high of around 100 in December, the dollar index — which measures USD against a basket of foreign currencies — is down about 8%, and the decline is steepening. In counterintuitive currency war terms, that means the US is winning the latest battle. After three years of the […]

Gold Leaves $1,250 in the Rear View Mirror

Posted: 02 May 2016 09:23 AM PDT

This post Gold Leaves $1,250 in the Rear View Mirror appeared first on Daily Reckoning.

And now… today's Pfennig for your thoughts…

Good day, and a marvelous Monday to you!

Well, today is starting out slow, as most of Asia, and Pan Asia is closed for holidays, as is a lot of Europe, as they still celebrate May Day, which fell on a Sunday, so naturally, they take Monday off. And I don’t believe that things in the U.S . will get hopping wild today either, unless the ISM Manufacturing Index which is scheduled to print, has a rabbit in its hat…

There are a ton of Central Bankers globally, out on the speaking circuit, headlined by the European Central Bank (ECB) President, Mario Draghi, who is probably going to throw the euro under the bus, as the currency trades nearer the 1.15 handle than it does the 1.14 handle this morning. There are a couple Fed members that will speak, and it will be interesting to see if they sing from the same song sheet. Historically, they don’t, but maybe this time they can share the same song sheet.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) meets late this afternoon, (tomorrow morning for them) and the latest poll of economists have 45% of them thinking that the RBA will go ahead and get this last rate cut out of the way at this meeting.  With the call very close to 50/50 for a rate cut or not, I’m still of the thought that the RBA would be prudent here, and wait to see if the latest inflation report was just a rogue report before cutting rates again. The A$ traders don’t seem to be on the same page as the economists, for they have pushed the A$ higher this morning ahead of the RBA meeting. You don’t see that every day!

Once again the Japan yen is stronger this morning that it was on Friday morning, and overnight a Bank of Japan (BOJ)  official (Aso) noted that he was concerned with the strong move of the yen. In the “old days” of currency trading, this kind of talk would be a precursor to intervention by the BOJ, but not any longer, the BOJ was handed their playbook at the Shanghai G20 meeting, and all the now have at their disposal to slowdown this move by yen traders is their mouths. And I don’t think the markets are concerned with what comes out of the mouths of the BOJ members. The Mighty Puff ceased his roar.

Gold has really pushed past $1,250, and the figure now appears to be in gold’s rear view mirror. It sure took a few frustrating times before finally moving past $1,250 for good. Not that I’m complaining. Much. And what really surprises me with this move is that it comes when the physical gold demand has backed off its previous strength. Not that it has dried up or anything like that, but demand backs off and the price of gold soars.

Hmmm… now, that’s a new one on me! But I’m not going to question the move, or sit here and tell you that it shouldn’t be happening, because all the time that physical demand was soaring, gold lingered and even lost ground, so that too was confusing to me! So, this makes up for the last four years of watching physical demand soar, but gold falter.

The Big data print this week will be the Jobs Jamboree on Friday. Right now, the experts are thinking that the job creation for April will remain around 200,000 to 215,000. I don’t get involved in the guessing what the number will be any longer, because I could never get my arms around the adjustments that the BLS would make to their surveys.

I’ll mention this once again, but why do the markets get all lathered up over “surveys” that the people that run the “surveys” then have to apply adjustments to? Seems all convoluted to me. Why wouldn’t we as a country use tax returns as a means of computing our total employment? Ok, that’s a discussion for some other day. But for this week, we’re stuck with the Jobs Jamboree as presented by the BLS on Friday.

As usual, China printed data on the weekend. They love to do this, so that the data can be absorbed by the markets without market movement. I don’t agree with this method, but I don’t think they care.

The Chinese printed their April PMI (manufacturing index) and for the second consecutive month, the index printed above 50 at 50.3, after a 50.2 print in March. I would say this is a stabilization of some degree for the Chinese and could mean that the country would hold off on further stimulus. And for this “stabilization” the renminbi saw depreciation in the overnight fixing. Yes, that’s opposite of what I would think would be the reaction by the Peoples Bank of China (PBOC), but remember, China boosted the renminbi by a large amount last week, and I’m sure they decided to make sure once again, that the markets didn’t think it was going to be a One-Way Street of appreciation.

The Russian ruble is seeing another strong positive move this morning, as the price of oil hasn’t really moved much, but that seems to be a good thing for the Petrol Currencies like the ruble, which doesn’t need any oil price weakness for sure!  The Central Bank of Russia (CBR) has pointed toward the high rate of inflation as a reason they can’t continue to cut rates further from their emergency rate hike levels. I think if the ruble continues to appreciate, that it will help with the inflation problem, and interest rates could get back to near normal, in Russia, which would still be above the majority of rates in the world.

Well, I’ve been reading so much about negative rates lately. There are articles on it everywhere, and of course not all of them are in agreement. But I’ll pin my colors to the mast of analysts like Grant Williams, who believe that while things may not be rotten in Denmark just yet, they will eventually.   

Speaking of Denmark, where rates have been negative for four years now (yes, can you believe it’s been four years of negative rates here?) the private sector is saving more than it did before there were negative rates. Last week, I even played this out for you and said that while most economists thought that negative rates would get people to spend, it was doing the opposite and getting them to save more to make up for the “tax” of negative rates. You have to think about this deeper though, and that’s where I come in!

Stop for a minute to really think about this. If the country you’re living in has decided that negative rates are necessary, wouldn’t you as a citizen of that country think that the sky was falling, and wonder where Chicken Little was? I know I would! And if the sky is falling what do you do as a citizen? Hunker Down, batten down the hatches, and run for cover, right? Now, did you think that the mental giants (NOT!) that come up with the idea for negative rates ever thought about this scenario? NO! They only saw the people pulling their money out of the bank and spending it. Well, that’s not working, and it’s not going to work either!

And sooner or later, these countries, like Denmark, the Eurozone, Switzerland, Sweden, and Japan will realize that negative rates are counter-productive. I shake my head in disgust at these Central Planners that don’t see this a counter-productive.

And when you think about it, the same is happening here in the U.S.  But we don’t have negative rates, Chuck!  OK, technically we don’t have negative rates, but we do have “real negative rates”.  If the Fed Funds rate is 0.50% to .75%  and inflation, using either method you want to use to calculate it is greater than the interest rate then the “real rate is negative”. And again, I think this is what’s happening here in the U.S. as citizens save more to protect future purchasing power.

Well, I already spilled the beans and told you that the U.S. Data Cupboard has the ISM Manufacturing Index today, and I think it will show some slippage from the March rebound. But not much movement, so no real market reaction in my opinion. We’ll also see Construction Spending for March, which seems so long ago to me now. And Fed member Dennis Lockhart will give the first of his two speeches this week today. Tomorrow, Fed member Loretta Mester will speak and this is where I was talking about how we’ll have to see if they sing from the same song sheet.

Well, gold is kicking tail and taking names later once again. I’m surprised at how silver, which had been outperforming gold up to last week, has lagged. But that’s OK, silver is still moving in the right direction, so no need to panic here. Gold is up $11.72 this morning, and has crossed the Rubicon. Gold is above $1,300 this morning, after adding $26 to its price on Friday. A nice day indeed, but as always, it could have been even better if not for some aftermarket selling by the you know whom.

Before I go to the Big Finish, I wanted to share this with you. I have a friend, Sean Hyman, who is a technical guru. He’s asked to speak to groups all over the world, and he shared this thought with me regarding the Dollar Index:

The U.S. Dollar Index is basically at its last rung of support around the 93 level. If it breaks that long-held support….’look out below’.

For 93 has held up every time over the past year and a half, but the technicals are looking weak and the metals are looking strong. So IF we break 93ish and close below it, it’s going to light the next fire under foreign currencies and metals and take them much higher than the rally we’ve seen in these on the mild drop in the dollar thus far.

The dollar index in case you don’t want to wait for the currency roundup is 92.87 this morning. Even a dull tool in the tool box like me, knows that’s below 93. Now it just has to close there.

I was reading Ed Steer’s letter this weekend, and he mentioned an article on ZeroHedge and I just had to go there to see if for myself. You can find the article here, or here is your snippet: 

While the U.S. Treasury’s semi-annual report on the foreign-exchange policies of major U.S. trading partners has traditionally been, pardon the pun, a paper tiger, as the U.S. has not named a single country as a currency manipulator since it did so to China in 1994, and it didn’t go so far as to blame any country as an outright manipulator in the just released April edition, there was a new addition to the latest report.

In an inaugural ‘monitoring list’, the US put five economies including China, Japan and Germany (as well as South Korea and Taiwan) on a new currency watch list, saying that their foreign-exchange practices bear close monitoring to gauge if they provide an unfair trade advantage over America.

This is about as direct a threat to the 3+2 nations not to engage in major currency devaluation whether through QE, NIRP or major interest rate changes as Jack Lew could come up with, and in some ways was to be expected in the aftermath of the G-20 meeting which as we found out this week, precluded any additional QE by the BOJ.

Recall that as part of the most recent G-20 accords, which many believe is what unleashed the steep slide in the dollar, the member nations agreed to refrain from FX intervention absent ‘disorderly markets.’ It also made clear what could push a country from merely the watch list to full blown manipulator status.

Chuck again. Hmmm…  Now I wasn’t trading currencies in 1985 when the Plaza Accord took place, and the dollar was set in motion to weaken for about nine years, but I bet it looked and sounded a lot like this, don’t you?

That’s it for today. I hope you have a marvelous Monday, and be good to yourself!

Regards,

Chuck Butler
for The Daily Pfennig

P.S. Will the Fed raise rates at its next meeting? Is China preparing to shock global markets by devaluing the yuan? You'll find the answers to these questions and more in the free daily email edition of The Daily Reckoning. In a way you're sure to find entertaining… even risqué at times. Click here now to sign up for FREE.

The post Gold Leaves $1,250 in the Rear View Mirror appeared first on Daily Reckoning.

The Devil Is Coming to the White House

Posted: 02 May 2016 09:04 AM PDT

This post The Devil Is Coming to the White House appeared first on Daily Reckoning.

At this weekend's White House Correspondents Dinner, President Obama made a prediction:

"Next year at this time, someone else will be standing here in this very spot, and it's anyone's guess who SHE will be."

You know I'm not a fan of predictions, but he's probably right.

Considering that more and more Americans support socialism, are looking for "freebies" from the government, and expect someone else to take care of them…

I think Hillary has a fantastic shot at the White House. And then Slick Willy can get back to the intern business.

Oh, and if you thought Obama was bad, just wait until Wall Street's Devil in Prada assumes control of the Oval Office.

Pathological Liar Extraordinaire

Mark Twain once said: "Politicians and diapers must be changed often, and for the same reason."

It's no secret that politicians lie.

It's what they're designed to do.

For example, Obama lied about Obamacare when he famously said, "If you like your insurance plan, you can keep your insurance plan."

Not sure if that beats President Bill Clinton's now classic, "I did not have sexual relations with that woman, Miss Lewinsky."​

But it's pretty close.

Obama also lied when he promised that Obamacare would reduce healthcare premiums by $2,500 per year.

Instead, average premiums have skyrocketed. For some groups, the rate hike has been as much as 78%.

And he lied when he said: "I didn't raise taxes once."

Obamacare is jam-packed with more hidden taxes than we can count… or even figure out.

And it's not just Obamacare.

A few years ago, he said: "We have to turn the page on the bubble and bust mentality that created this mess," referring to the 2008 financial collapse.

But he knows damn well how that mess was created.

He knows the Federal Reserve is responsible for the bubbles and the busts of the last 15 years.

And if you think he's bad, just wait until you see Hillary in the White House…

When she gives a speech, the lies come so fast and so furious, I can't keep track. An encyclopedia of Hillary lies might be a bestseller… or just useful as toilet paper.

Are You Ready for the Deep State's Candidate?

Look, I think Hillary is a certified crook. From the cattle futures scam in the early days to the $153 million paid to her and Slick Willy over the last 15 years by Wall Street banks, it's corruption on par with the Sopranos.

What's really shocking is that she has a real chance at getting to the White House… even though her email scandal should have already put her in prison.

But not so fast…

According to the latest Rasmussen Reports survey, Republican presidential frontrunner Donald Trump and Democratic presidential frontrunner Hillary Clinton are tied nationally.

Is there a glimmer of hope?

At this point, it could go either way.

But Trump isn't just up against Hillary.

He's also up against the immensely powerful Deep State.

You see, for the past few decades, it hasn't really mattered who was in the White House.

Presidents are mere marionettes controlled by the Wall Street bankers, the big corporations and the military industrial complex.

That's no conspiracy, just fact.

They give orders. Our elected "representatives" obey… then check their bank accounts for their snack money.

This year could be different, though.

Trump is a wild card. Nobody knows if he will take orders from the Deep State. And the powers that be are clearly concerned Trump might take their power levers.

Meanwhile, Hillary is the establishment candidate. Even noted libertarian Charles Koch is touting her. She has been vetted by the Deep State and has amassed a massive fortune for her loyalty.

However, if Trump can unmask her as the crook she is, maybe he'll have a chance. But it's going to be a tough fight.

He's up against a massive amount of vitriol. Have you seen the Trump protest videos? They're loaded with topless girls screaming expletives, Mexican flag waving and the destruction of police cars. It's a sad narrative about modern day America.

But don't get me wrong.

I'm not ruling out Trump.

I'm simply pointing out the system is rigged. It's likely we'll just get more of the same in the next eight years.

I'm talking about more lies…

More taxes…

More market manipulations leading to boom and busts…

More government boondoggles, like negative interest rates that will hurt retirees and the middle class.

And there's nothing you can do to change that.

The best we can do is to have a strategy that can profit from whatever is happening in the markets.

That means we have to be ready for up, down and surprise markets.

No one can predict the election. And no one can predict market direction.

But there are ways to get on the right side of trends… and make some money.

In a crazy world, where common sense has ceased to be common, that's the best we can do.

Please send your feedback to coveluncensored@agorafinancial.com. Send me your thoughts on the upcoming election… and anything else.

Regards,

Michael Covel
for The Daily Reckoning

The post The Devil Is Coming to the White House appeared first on Daily Reckoning.

Steve Quayle & Greg Evensen New World Order

Posted: 02 May 2016 09:00 AM PDT

Steve Quayle & Greg Evensen New World Order The Financial Armageddon Economic Collapse Blog tracks trends and forecasts , futurists , visionaries , free investigative journalists , researchers , Whistelblowers , truthers and many more

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US Dollar Economic Collapse Inevitable In 28 May 2016

Posted: 02 May 2016 08:36 AM PDT

"Manufacture and transfer Risk?" is called gambling Forgive them.... for they know not what they say... The Financial Armageddon Economic Collapse Blog tracks trends and forecasts , futurists , visionaries , free investigative journalists , researchers , Whistelblowers , truthers and many...

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Returning To A Gold Standard: Why Gold and Silver are Beginning This Historic Breakout

Posted: 02 May 2016 08:25 AM PDT

Owning gold (GLD) and silver (SLV) goes back to the times of the Bible.  Gold and silver was used in religious rituals since the beginning of civilization.

There was an argument with the Ancient Egyptians and the Jews when the Jews were commanded to take all of the gold and silver in Egypt before they left during the plague of darkness when they were freed from Egyptian slavery.  It states clearly in the Bible that the Jews left with the gold and silver from the Egyptians and this was a fulfillment of a promise to Abraham.

Exactly 2020 years ago from today, during the times of Alexander the Great, Egypt took the Jews to court demanding restitution and using the Bible as proof that the gold and silver was rightfully the Egyptians.

Responding to the Egyptian claim, The Jewish defense team brought proof in the Bible that 600,000 Jews were enslaved for generations in Egypt and asked the court to calculate how much they are owed in hourly wages as a reparation and come to a fair decision.

The Egyptians dropped the case and didn’t respond.

Even in the Bible we see how important it was for the Jews to possess gold and silver despite going into an inhabitable desert.  There are hundreds of references to the use of gold and silver in the Jewish Tabernacle and Temple.  This should be a lesson in our times to increase our own exposure to real value and money as defined by the Torah or Bible.

Since the times of Abraham, gold and silver was money and there was always some sort of gold standard in the world.  However, for the past 80 years the world has slowly forgotten about the vital role of gold and silver as real value as governments around the world have moved away from a gold standard moving to a completely fiat system.

Remember during WWI there were more than 50 countries on a gold standard where currency could be exchanged for gold.  Then in 1971 the US ruled no countries could back their currencies with gold.

However, there are some astute countries over the past several years continuing to increase their percentage of gold bullion in their central reserves.  Individuals should use corrections in precious metals as accumulation periods.

For years I have been highlighting precious metals as a store of value and high quality gold explorers and developers with the potential to leverage those gains, despite them being completely out of favor.  Seeing a historic irrational correction in gold and silver, exacerbated by manipulation from several banks, I continued to highlight the virtues of patience and fortitude.  I also tried to teach the virtue of ignoring the news and the mass media whose attempt is to make you off balanced and misdirecting you to sell your precious metals so you can buy into inflated sectors on the verge of their own crash like Bre X, Enron, Counrtywide and Bernie Madoff.

I continue to believe that we have just started a new uptrend in gold, silver and the miners.  Silver could even outperform gold by a large margin.  I am comfortable owning gold, silver and high quality junior miners as the global fiat currencies in my opinion are going to zero.  History proves that all fiat currencies come and go but gold and silver since the times of the Bible continue to hold its value.

The trillion dollar bailout of government banks and quantitative easing is a horrible travesty to the American people and may have dire consequences.  These bailouts and currency devaluations could send gold soaring to new all time nominal highs way past the peak we hit in 1980. Eventually society will return to some sort of a gold standard but at that time the US Dollar may have lost a large part of its value.

Caution is warranted short term as the price is now trading way above recent moving averages and indicators are way overbought.  However, during early stages of a bull market overbought readings tend to last a long time so we will watch.

 

The past forty five year experiment of dropping a gold standard may come back to haunt the world as hyperinflation may be inevitable over the next few decades.  Gold and silver is still cheap despite hitting new 52 week highs.  Remember it hit a high of around $1900 back in 2011.  Gold (GLD), Silver (SLV) and the Miners (GDX) just now beginning to breakout of classic cup and handle patterns it could surpass those highs in 2016.  Eventually leading to a move $2800 or possibly higher.  Stay posted.

The junior gold miners may be going to surge even more in percentage terms.

Watch these 3 Featured junior gold miners making big breakouts on important news.

1)This junior gold miner closed on a $10.8 Million equity financing from new institutional and corporate shareholders and this will hopefully take them all the way through the Feasibility Study on a high grade, underground gold silver mine in the Golden Triangle in British Columbia.

2)This high grade gold developer in Ontario is raising $2 million CAD from Haywood that should take them through Feasibility.  It could be rerated as they are high grade and advanced gold asset in Canada with great location and infrastructure.  I suspect a major or mid-tier should think to partner here as well in 2016.

3)This Nevada junior gold miner on the Cortez Trend just got two major votes of confidence with investments from a Mid Tier Producer and a well respected Gold Fund based out of NYC.  They could be onto something significant as they now have the funding to do some major gold exploration.

Disclosure: I own these three junior miners and they are all website sponsors.  I participated in several Private Placements and plan to participate in future ones.  They are all website sponsors and I have positions so I do have a conflict of interest and would benefit if share prices increases.  This means you must do your own due diligence.  I may buy or sell for many reasons without notifying my readers. Consult with a registered financial advisor which I am not.

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Something Big is Happening Worldwide! (2016-2017)

Posted: 02 May 2016 07:18 AM PDT

SHOCKING NEWS REPORTS from the past week are we living in the end times something strange is going on worldwide new world order microchip argentina current world news 2016 The Financial Armageddon Economic Collapse Blog tracks trends and forecasts , futurists , visionaries , free...

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USD Still Declining...

Posted: 02 May 2016 06:18 AM PDT

USD is plummeting lower today. This is keeping USD/JPY suppressed, even though the Yen is not rallying at the moment. Bloomberg reports, “After falling for three months, the dollar is set to rebound, if this historical seasonal chart is any guide. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index, which tracks the greenback versus 10 peers, has appreciated in May in every year but one since 2007, according to a Bloomberg Seasonality Chart. That’s the best record among the 12 months.

Craig Wright revealed as Bitcoin creator Satoshi Nakamoto

Posted: 02 May 2016 05:40 AM PDT

From the British Broadcasting Co., London
Monday, May 2, 2016

Australian entrepreneur Craig Wright has publicly identified himself as Bitcoin creator Satoshi Nakamoto.

His admission ends years of speculation about who came up with the original ideas underlying the digital cash system.

Mr Wright has provided technical proof to back up his claim using coins known to be owned by Bitcoin's creator.
Prominent members of the Bitcoin community and its core development team have also confirmed Mr Wright's claim.

Mr Wright has revealed his identity to three media organisations -- the BBC, the Economist, and GQ. At the meeting with the BBC, Mr Wright digitally signed messages using cryptographic keys created during the early days of Bitcoin's development. The keys are inextricably linked to blocks of bitcoins known to have been created or "mined" by Satoshi Nakamoto. ...

... For the remainder of the report:

http://www.bbc.com/news/technology-36168863



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A Contrarian's Call Option on Gold

Sandspring Resources' Toroparu project in Guyana is the fourth-largest gold deposit in South America held by a junior mining company.

Experienced backers of Sandspring Resources include Silver Wheaton, the John Adams / Energy Fuels group in Denver, and Frank Giustra's Fiore Group in Vancouver.

A 2013 preliminary feasibility study shows strong economics for this large-scale mine at US$1,400 gold. With a current gold price below US$1,300, Sandspring is for investors who believe that gold price suppression will be overcome.

For a detailed report on Sandspring Resources by Tommy Humphreys of CEO.CA, please visit:

https://ceo.ca/@tommy/a-ten-million-ounce-call-option-on-gold



Support GATA by purchasing recordings of the proceedings of the 2014 New Orleans Investment Conference:

https://jeffersoncompanies.com/landing/2014-av-powell

Or by purchasing DVDs of GATA's London conference in August 2011 or GATA's Dawson City conference in August 2006:

http://www.goldrush21.com/order.html

Or a colorful poster of GATA's full-page ad in The Wall Street Journal on January 31, 2009:

http://gata.org/node/wallstreetjournal

Help keep GATA going

GATA is a civil rights and educational organization based in the United States and tax-exempt under the U.S. Internal Revenue Code. Its e-mail dispatches are free, and you can subscribe at:

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Breaking News And Best Of The Web — May 2

Posted: 02 May 2016 05:30 AM PDT

US manufacturing growth slows. The dollar falls, the yen rises, Japanese and Chinese stocks tank. Puerto Rico defaults. China debt news keeps getting worse. Central banks continue to lose credibility. Trump and Clinton can sew it up in Indiana. Gold and silver miners are putting up good numbers but the COTs have become terrifying.   […]

Even the Australian Financial Review warns about paper gold

Posted: 02 May 2016 05:18 AM PDT

Why Gold Is Still the Pick of the Precious Metals

By Trevor Sykes
Australian Financial Review, Sydney
Monday, May 2, 2016

One of the strongest arguments against investing in gold was that the metal yielded no interest while you were holding it so it stands to reason that the environment of low interest rates should be friendly for investors in precious metals.

That argument, while valid, has lost significant merit, because investors don't get much of an interest rate holding government bonds or bank deposits. Indeed in several countries interest rates have gone negative, which means that investors are paying governments for the privilege of holding their bonds. ...

... Dispatch continues below ...



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Inside the Plot to Unleash a Super Crash

This new book by Michael E. Lewitt is a passionate and informed analysis of the struggling global economy. Lewitt, one of Wall Street's most respected market strategists and money managers, updates his groundbreaking examination of the causes of the 2008 crisis and argues that economic and geopolitical conditions are even more unstable today. Lewitt explains how debt has overrun the world's productive capacity, how government policies have created a downward vortex sapping growth and vitality from the American economy, and how greed and corruption are preventing reform.

For more information:

http://www.wiley.com/WileyCDA/WileyTitle/productCd-1119183545,subjectCd-...



The price is set every night in derivative trading on Comex in New York. The gold price is also nominally fixed in London. The London market is theoretically a physical market, but in practice it is really a derivative market with very few physical deliveries.

The big holders of gold are in China and other Asian countries. So the price is being set by derivative traders who hold little or no gold, while Asians are continually amassing the physical metal.

If, one day somewhere in the future, the physical holders decide to start setting the price, it will rise quite sharply. So it's not a bad strategy to buy gold whenever it dips. ...

... For the remainder of the commentary:

http://www.afr.com/personal-finance/why-gold-is-still-the-pick-of-the-pr...

* * *

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Gold & Silver Rally Huge as Central Bankers & Analysts Flub

Posted: 02 May 2016 05:11 AM PDT

Welcome to this week’s Market Wrap Podcast, I’m Mike Gleason. Coming up we’ll hear from Frank Holmes, CEO and Chief Investment Officer at U.S. Global Investors and author of the book The Goldwatcher: Demystifying Gold Investing. Frank has a bullish outlook for the metals and comments on what’s ahead for gold and silver after a very strong start to the year. Will we see a pullback as we head into the summer? Hear Frank’s answer to this question and many others, coming up right after this week’s market update. Central bankers took center stage this week as both the U.S. Federal Reserve and Bank of Japan moved markets by NOT moving rates. On Wednesday, the Fed announced that it would refrain from hiking interest rates. Fed officials cited a down tick in some of their economic indicators as the primary reason for standing pat.

SILVER: Prospects for the Birth of a New Bull Run

Posted: 02 May 2016 03:21 AM PDT

The prospect for the birth of a new Bull-Run in Silver speaks to a broader cyclical theme that relates to a dying dollar bull, and a corollary cyclical sentiment shift back toward a strong market preference for tangible vs. paper assets. From its current cyclical low in December of 2015, Silver Bullion has risen 30%. In the broadest of terms, the above referenced theme would suggest the early adoption of a general pair's trade that was short the dollar and long commodities.

USD, Yen and an ‘Inflation Trade’ Update

Posted: 02 May 2016 03:10 AM PDT

The Fed has been trying to promote inflation. That is not the guy with the tin foil hat speaking, it is direct from FOMC statements targeting a higher inflation level, which is another way of saying they are targeting a lower US dollar level. From this we leaned toward that which would benefit from a declining USD. Precious metals (led by silver) are a prime beneficiary, with oil and some commodities remaining firm despite pressure on stock markets as corporate performance and economic signals continue to fade.

Did The Big Silver And Gold Market Event Arrive?

Posted: 02 May 2016 03:06 AM PDT

In a previous article (September 2015), I presented the following analysis (in italics) to show how we are close to a point were a significant event could happen in the bond market and/or gold & silver markets: Above, is a chart (from macrotrends.com) that shows the ratio of the gold price to the St. Louis Adjusted Monetary Base back to 1918. That is the gold price in US dollars divided by the St. Louis Adjusted Monetary Base in billions of US dollars. So, for example, currently the ratio is at 0.28 [$1 125 (current gold price)/ $4 019 (which represents 4 019 billions of US dollars)].

Paper Gold Is Rising, Report 1 May, 2016

Posted: 02 May 2016 02:50 AM PDT

Monetary Metals

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