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Monday, May 2, 2016

Gold World News Flash

Gold World News Flash

Ronan Manly – Will Economics Dictate a Gold Price Rise?

Posted: 02 May 2016 12:15 AM PDT

Matterhorn AM

Paper Gold Is Rising, Report 1 May, 2016

Posted: 01 May 2016 10:28 PM PDT

The price of gold shot up over $60 this week. The price of silver moved up proportionally, gaining over $0.85. The mood is now palpable. The feeling in the air is that of long suffering suddenly turned to optimism. Big gains, if not the collapse of the price-suppression cartel, are now inevitable.

The headlines and articles, screaming for gold to hit $10,000 to $50,000, are pervasive. Today we won't dwell on our favorite point that if the price of gold hits $50,000 then that means the price of the dollar has collapsed. If you own an ounce of gold, then you may have a lot more dollars. But unfortunately, each of those dollars is worth a lot less.

Today, we want to look at this new alleged precious metals bull market. Does it have legs? Are we likely to see silver hit $20, much less $1,000? We will support our analysis with a new graph to show the big picture.

Let's look at the only true picture of supply and demand fundamentals. But first, here's the graph of the metals' prices.

       The Prices of Gold and Silver
Prices

Next, this is a graph of the gold price measured in silver, otherwise known as the gold to silver ratio. The ratio was down slightly this week. 

The Ratio of the Gold Price to the Silver Price
ratio

For each metal, we will look at a graph of the basis and cobasis overlaid with the price of the dollar in terms of the respective metal. It will make it easier to provide brief commentary. The dollar will be represented in green, the basis in blue and cobasis in red.

Here is the gold graph.

       The Gold Basis and Cobasis and the Dollar Price
gold

We actually had to expand the range of both axes. The price of the dollar fell off the bottom, currently about 24mg. The cobasis (which is our measure of the scarcity of gold) also fell off the bottom, while the basis (which is our measure of abundance) rose above the top.

As the price of gold continues to rise, it becomes more abundant. Indeed, we can hardly say "scarcity" any more with a cobasis below -1%.

Look, the supply and demand fundamentals could change at any time. However, as of this moment, the picture painted by the basis is not $10,000 or $50,000. It's more like $1,235. More on this below.

First let's turn to silver.

The Silver Basis and Cobasis and the Dollar Price
silver

The first thing you'll notice is that the red cobasis line (i.e. scarcity) has not been falling to match the falling price of the dollar measured in silver (i.e. rising price of silver, measured in dollars) the way it has in the gold chart above. However, two factors mitigate this. One, the silver cobasis is much lower on an absolute basis (no pun intended). In gold, the cobasis is -1.1%, whereas for silver it's -1.4%.

Two, silver has a much stronger tendency to a falling basis and rising cobasis as each contract nears expiration. In times of greater scarcity, it causes temporary backwardation—each contract tips into backwardation before it goes off the board. This phenomenon begins to distort the silver chart much farther out than in gold, and to a greater (numerical) degree. It has already taken hold in the July silver contract.

This segues into our next chart, a view new to this Report. We show the August and December gold contracts and the September and December silver contracts. Just the basis only, to make the chart easier to read.

The Gold and Silver Basis with LIBOR
bases with LIBOR

You can see another aspect of our previous point. Even this far out, the silver contracts show more volatility than gold. And the two different months deviate from one another more than in gold.

Note the strong rising trend starting around mid-January.

So what is this showing, really? The basis is the real-world profit you would make to carry metal. Suppose you buy a bar of metal and simultaneously sell a futures contract, storing the metal in the meantime. You pocket the carry spread. If we quote it in terms of dollars, it's about 14 cents for December silver. We quote it as an annualized percentage, so that you can easily compare it to other investments (more on this in a moment).

The trend for the past few months is that carrying is more and more profitable. What does that tell us? It means that more and more firms will enter the carry trade. A profit attracts people, for some odd reason or another having to do with wanting to make money or something…

Anyways, we know that more market participants are carrying metal because it's more profitable than it was. Whatever number of people wanted to do it when the profit was 7 cents, we know that more will do it for 14.

What is this telling us about the state of the market for metal? If more and more metal is going into carry trades, then the marginal buyer of metal is this trader who carries metal—whom we often call the warehouseman. The marginal demand for metal is to be carried. This is a dangerous state, because when it flips around, then this marginal demand disappears and then the marginal supply of metal is coming out of carry trades. This is hardly the picture of a shortage driving a durable bull market.

We included two different LIBOR rates on the chart. It's interesting to compare the basis to LIBOR. Now, in gold, carrying is about the same as 6-month LIBOR. In silver, the return is above that, and at one point got above 12-month LIBOR.

We have one final point. These traders are carrying metal to earn a small spread, with no price exposure. They are arbitragers. The activity of the arbitrageur always causes compression of the spread from which he is profiting. In this case, the carry trade involves buying metal in the spot market and selling it in the futures market. This tends to push up the price of spot metal and pull down the price of futures contracts.

So we have a growing group that's pushing to compress the basis spread—basis is futures minus spot. Yet the basis is widening despite that. What could cause something to rise, when there's a powerful and growing force trying to make it fall? What is the even-bigger force at work here?

It is the fast and furious buying of speculators, who bid up futures contracts on leverage. Paper gold is rising, and it's pulling up gold metal. Paper silver is rising, and it's pulling up silver metal.

For now.

 

© 2016 Monetary Metals

How to Use the CoT Report in Gold Investing?

Posted: 01 May 2016 10:08 PM PDT

SunshineProfits

While Silver Shines, Gold Could Be Poised To Disappoint

Posted: 01 May 2016 09:41 PM PDT

Chicago (May 1)  Poor US Advance GDP results of 0.5% q/q and a build in Unemployment Claims to 257K has gotten the Gold Bulls stirred up again. Unfortunately for them, the best they can hope for is the re-widening of the metal’s channel. However, it might also be possible that the commodity is verging on another prodigious fall.

What if central banks have NOT lost control of gold?

Posted: 01 May 2016 09:33 PM PDT

12:51a ET Monday, May 2, 2016

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Has the positioning of the big commercial traders in the monetary metals futures markets lost its value as an indicator of future monetary metals prices?

It seems like gold and silver bugs and maybe a few ordinary investors have been waiting for weeks for the usual smashing of the metals by those traders, the big investment banks, hoping to buy the next dip, only to have to watch the metals and the mining shares move steadily higher.

... Dispatch continues below ...


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Among the market analysts whose prediction of a smash has gotten stale and who seems to be doubting himself is Clive Maund, whose latest commentary notes that it's a "paradoxical situation." His commentary is posted at GoldSeek here --

http://news.goldseek.com/CliveMaund/1462129992.php

-- and at 24hGold here:

http://www.24hgold.com/english/news-gold-silver-gold-market-update--para...

Meanwhile in other commentary at GoldSeek, market analyst Dan Norcini, while not yet so alarmed about the commercial short position in gold, chides "gold cult members who seem to not understand that when they are cheering predictions of $5,000 or even $50,000 gold they are cheering the ruin of everything around them":

http://news.goldseek.com/DanNorcini/1462129200.php

Count your secretary/treasurer among those who have been expecting the commitment of traders signal to be validated again for the thousandth time. But insofar as it is not validated and the monetary metals continue to rise, your secretary/treasurer can envision two possible explanations and offers them here with the justification of a slow-news Sunday night and the expertise of a high school graduate.

That is, either central banks, the biggest participants in the gold market, have lost control of it, the physical gold part of the market is overthrowing the paper gold part of the market, and the market is in the midst of the fabled "commercial signal failure."

Or else central banks have not lost control of the gold market, and the gold price continues to go exactly where they want it to go.

That would mean that the consensus policy of central banks in regard to gold has changed recently -- that they now want gold rising again, most likely to assist in the devaluation of their currencies, particularly now the U.S. dollar, as well as devaluation of the world's debt, and that the huge short positions of the banks in the futures markets are actually central bank positions that must continue to increase even to unprecedented levels to keep this devaluation "orderly," to use a favorite term of central banking. (Really, who else but institutions that are authorized to create infinite money and that hold large gold reserves could accept the risk of such shorting?)

This would mean that central banks disagree with Norcini. It would mean that far from considering a sharply higher gold price to be the end of the world, central banks consider a sharply higher gold price -- at least if it can be accomplished in an "orderly" way -- the prerequisite of worldwide debt relief, their own reliquefication, and the maintenance of their power, gold remaining, as the assistant undersecretary of state for economic and business affairs, Thomas O. Enders, explained to Secretary of State Henry Kissinger in April 1974, the supreme "reserve-creating instrument" of governments, the ultimate money, the form of money that underwrites all other forms of money, the form of money whose valuation is control of the world:

http://www.gata.org/node/13310

Your secretary/treasurer is far from the first to have such suspicions. They were expressed in detail four years ago by the American economists and fund managers Paul Brodsky and Lee Quaintance --

http://www.gata.org/node/11373

-- and have been expressed increasingly by others lately, including, perhaps most notably, by fund manager and author James G. Rickards.

Since the world belongs to central banks and the rest of us occupy it only at their sufferance, they don't volunteer what they are doing with our planet. Their policies and actions can be discerned only through careful observation, investigation, and research, like tedious searching of government archives that have not been fully redacted, leading to the compiling of documentation summarized by GATA here --

http://www.gata.org/node/14839

-- and here --

http://www.gata.org/node/16377

-- and even this research does not give much help as to the timing of policy.

So Maund, Norcini, and even your secretary/treasurer may be forgiven for not knowing certain things or not giving them their proper weight. The problem with Maund, Norcini, and others like them is only that, clinging desperately to their narrow craft, "technical analysis," refusing to entertain the possibility that what they are analyzing are not really markets at all but the tools of higher powers, they seem not to want to know.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

* * *

Support GATA by purchasing DVDs of GATA's London conference in August 2011 or GATA's Dawson City conference in August 2006:

http://www.goldrush21.com/order.html

Or a colorful poster of GATA's full-page ad in The Wall Street Journal on January 31, 2009:

http://gata.org/node/wallstreetjournal

Help keep GATA going

GATA is a civil rights and educational organization based in the United States and tax-exempt under the U.S. Internal Revenue Code. Its e-mail dispatches are free, and you can subscribe at:

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To contribute to GATA, please visit:

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The New Case For Gold by James Rickards Book Review

Posted: 01 May 2016 07:30 PM PDT

Bill Still VS. Fractional Reserve MONEY MASTERS

Posted: 01 May 2016 07:21 PM PDT

by SGT, SGT Report.com:

Bill Still, producer of the legendary documentary ‘The Money Masters‘ is back and he has a fire in his belly. Bill has been following the Trump campaign and the 2016 elections so closely that he missed the news that silver has risen more than 25% year-to-date, while the mining stock ETF’s have nearly doubled. And Bill remains steadfast in his belief that FIAT currency issued BY the government is the answer to what ails us, NOT a gold-backed currency. Bill is very fired up about Donald Trump too, saying “He’s the only chance we’ve got.” We cover it all in this dynamic, and at times bombastic conversation. Thanks for tuning in!

Paper Silver Is EASY To Get. PHYSICAL Silver… Far, Far, Far Harder.

Posted: 01 May 2016 06:30 PM PDT

from History channel, via You know it?:

Breaking News And Best Of The Web — May 2

Posted: 01 May 2016 06:19 PM PDT

The dollar falls, the yen rises, Japanese and Chinese stocks tank. Puerto Rico defaults. China debt news keeps getting worse. Central banks continue to lose credibility. Trump and Clinton can sew it up in Indiana. Gold and silver miners are putting up good numbers but the COTs have become terrifying.   Best Of The Web […]

Deutsche Bank Unveils The Next Step: "QE Has Run Its Course, It's Time To Tax Wealth"

Posted: 01 May 2016 05:32 PM PDT

Helicopter money may be on the horizon, but if Deutsche Bank has its way, there is at least one intermediate step.

According to DB's Dominic Konstam, now that the benefits QE "have run their course", it is time for the next, and far more drastic step: "the ECB and BoJ should move more strongly toward penalizing savings via negative retail deposit rates or perhaps wealth taxes. With this stick would also come a carrot – for example, negative mortgage rates."

Here is the big picture unveiling of what is coming next from Deutsche Bank's Dominic Konstam, who is also buying the Treasury long end hand over fist:

  • The G3 central banks all stood pat, continuing the move away from the beggar-thy-neighbor paradigm. However, the adverse market reaction to the BoJ's inaction suggests that the benefits of QE (or QQE) in its present form might have run their course.
  • It is becoming increasingly clear to us that the level of yields at which credit expansion in Europe and Japan will pick up in earnest is probably negative, and substantially so. Therefore, the ECB and BoJ should move more strongly toward penalizing savings via negative retail deposit rates or perhaps wealth taxes. With this stick would also come a carrot – for example, negative mortgage rates.
  • Until then, bank NIM compression will continue to drive elevated demand for dollar-denominated assets, which manifests itself in suppressed UST term premia and wide cross-currency bases.
  • What this means for the US is that policy rates and longer bond yields are unlikely to go up until global growth accelerates materially. Until such time, it is critical for the Fed to continue to relent, allowing real yields to keep falling while breakevens rise and nominal yields remain roughly static.
  • If the Fed were to turn hawkish, there is perhaps even less scope for long-end yields to rise as breakevens would likely collapse on policy error fears.

Some of the troubling detail:

QE as implemented in major economies since the crisis has operated through two shocks: a demand shock whereby real yields are forced lower through lower nominal yields and static – or even falling – breakevens, and a shock to inflation expectations, whereby real yields ultimately continue to fall but due to rising BEI and static to lower nominal yields. In the case of the Anglo-Saxon economies, the demand shock quickly gave way to the shock (higher) to inflation expectations and actually allowed nominal yields to rise, if fleetingly.

 

The second shock, to inflation expectations, has thus far remained stubbornly elusive in Europe and more so in Japan, and ephemeral in the Anglo-Saxon economies. That said, this dynamic appears to have re-emerged in the US post Fed relent and has been an important driver of the recovery in risk assets and, more generally, the easing of financial conditions.

 

This week's BoJ announcement disappointed, and as a result the yen appreciated sharply. This outcome does not bode well for the future efficacy of QE, at least while that is the primary policy tool in use. Breakevens have been drifting lower and real yields have been drifting higher since last summer. In other words, financial conditions in Japan are tightening, suggesting the need for more stimulus. However, the BoJ already holds a significant proportion of the assets that would be available for purchase, and the gains from additional QE activity – higher breakevens, lower real yields, and a weaker yen – are likely on the margin to be fleeting. It appears that the markets doubt the BoJ's willingness or ability to carry on with larger and broader asset purchases, or worse yet they do not believe that such asset purchases will have their desired stimulative effect

 

Further QE should be viewed as an experiment in real time, where the point of inquiry is the level of real or nominal yields at which credit will begin to expand more strongly with loan-to-deposit ratios increasing. What seems increasingly clear to us is that this level is likely at negative yields, and probably substantially so. If this is true, it would suggest to us that the equilibrium level of rates in the economy is probably negative. This in turn would strongly suggest a significant re-think to short-rate policy. In this case, central banks should move more strongly toward penalizing savings, rather than just the institutions that "house" those savings – the banks. This would mean allowing significantly negative retail deposit rates or perhaps even wealth taxes. With this stick would also come a carrot – one example being that while deposit rates penalize savings (the whole point), banks might also pay borrowers to buy houses via negative mortgage rates.

In short, the real central bank panic is about to be unleashed; who will suffer? Why everyone else. And should wealth taxes really be imminent, we foresee a lot of "boating incidents" in the immediate future.

Iraqi Oil & The 'Strange' Death of Mr. Abadi

Posted: 01 May 2016 05:20 PM PDT

Submitted by Eugen von Bohm-Bawerk via Bawerk.net,

As expected, PM Abadi was always going to come off worse in his last ditch attempt to try and regain some kind of political initiative by appointing a new look ‘technocratic’ government in Baghdad. But the ailing Prime Minister has managed to back himself into a particularly tight corner after being outplayed by Muqtada al Sadr, Iyad Allawi and even Nouri Al Maliki. Rather than sticking to his ‘technocratic guns’ Abadi blinked first on cabinet changes, by allowing more traditional ‘muhasasa’ (i.e. quota based) politics to play through, falling back on the so called ‘three presidencies’ agreement between himself, President Fuad Masum, and parliamentary speaker, Salim al-Jiburi. The move’s since been condemned as protecting ‘establishment’ interest compared to more ‘comprehensive change’ that Maliki, Sadr and Allawi are all pitching.

For those well versed in Iraqi politics, you’ll realise just how perverted that political situation is, but the key point to register is Mr. Abadi is now a totally lame duck PM. Whether he can stagger on to 2018 elections looks increasingly unlikely. If anything, the only thing keeping him in post right now is the simple issue that political factions aren’t in a credible position to decide on an instant successor. That, and the blunt fact that Iran is working behind the scenes to line up a far more ‘client orientated’ PM next time round at the political level, with exactly the same Persian positioning for the next Grand Ayatollah at the ‘theocratic level’. For better or worse, Abadi is no more than an interim Iranian (and to some extent US) placeholder at this stage.

Obviously when we say ‘gamble’ everything is relative in Iraq. In reality things had got so bad for Mr. Abadi that he didn’t have any choice but to attempt a ‘technocratic coup’ amid a spate of public protests and simmering intra-Shia rivalries. That’s exactly the same political tiger Mr. Abadi’s been riding since 2014 to try and appease popular concerns on basic goods, power, water and jobs on the one hand, all retarded by inter-sectarian, and more notably, intra-sectarian divides in Iraq on the other. That was always a dangerous animal to ride, and especially with the likes of Sadr (Peace Brigades), Hakim (ISCI), Badr and the residual influence of Maliki (Dawa) all poised to go in for the intra-Shia kill as and when the time came. Unfortunately for Mr. Abadi, the clock has just stopped. He can’t rally support within the State of Law coalition, let alone more discrete ranks of Dawa to his cause at this late technocratic stage. Relations with the Kurds are similarly vexed, where vying factions within the KRG are using Abadi’s weakness to progress their own autonomous interests. That’s all the way down to operational control of Kirkuk Oil Company, prompting further supply cuts from Baghdad to choke off Northern revenues, and more importantly, keep some notion of a ‘unitary’ Iraq in place.

Iran and Iraq Oil Production

Needless to say that remains a losing long term battle, but from here, we expect Abadi to face more calls to resign to pave the way for fresh elections. On balance, those calls will be narrowly dismissed, not because Abadi has any political capital left to appoint a new cabinet, but because a dearth of consensus over who’d replace him. Iran is more than happy to keep Abadi in post to bring Iraq to its knees, while the US won’t want the horrifying nightmare of orchestrating an Iraqi election before US Presidential elections are out the way.

Fall short on the 2018 dates, and you’ll merely highlight the ingrained presence ISIS still has in Iraq, amid inexorable state collapse. What we’ll see instead is endless political crises, with far greater factionalism, with more violence between and within sectarian groups to protect respective turfs amid ongoing government quota debates, fiscal ‘challenges’ and opportunistic land grabs, either amongst themselves, or picking up new ‘real estate’ wherever ISIS sees temporal rolled back. For cynics (aka realists) that pretty much describes what’s happening around Abadi anyway, where ‘Popular Mobilisation Units’ are rapidly morphing into an Iraqi version of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards, while Badr and ISCI continue to cement control of Southern production when it comes to military hardware and boots on the Basra / Misan ground. Admittedly not everyone’s signed up to every Iranian edict, least of all Mr. Sadr who’s keen to carve out some form of ‘local autonomy’.

But beyond day to day Shia spats, the overall direction of travel remains undeniably Persian in a weakened Iraq. On that note it’s going to be a very long summer for Abadi. Not only does he have to find some way of keeping his notional seat in pernicious Baghdad politics, he has to brace for major bouts of social unrest over failed reforms in the summer blaze when his same ‘political tiger’ will roar once more. Water and electricity will go into short supply, but not as short as Mr. Abadi’s political capital. What little he had left, is spent. The strange death of Mr. Abadi has happened.

Deutsche Bank Has Systemic Money Laundering, Terrorist Financing And Sanctions Problems: UK Regulator

Posted: 01 May 2016 05:01 PM PDT

Just two days after Deutsche Bank fired the head of its "integrity committee", Georg Thoma who had been originally tasked with clearing up the bank's past scandals, because according to DB's vice chairman Alfred Herling, Thoma had been "overzealous" and "goes too far when he demands ever wider investigations and more and more lawyers come marching up", today the UK financial watchdog agency FCA announced that Germany's biggest bank has "serious" and "systemic" failings in its controls against money laundering, terrorist financing and sanctions, the Financial Times reported.

The Financial Conduct Authority (FCA), has now ordered a separate independent review, the FT reported the letter as saying. The FCA declined to comment.

In other words instad of firing it "Chief Ethics Officer" (sic), Deutsche should have ideally hired a few more because as a result of this latest probe it is most likely looking at billions more in settlement charges over the next 6 - 12 months.

"Our overall conclusion was that Deutsche Bank UK had serious AML (anti-money laundering), terrorist financing and sanctions failings which were systemic in nature," the FCA letter, dated March 2, reportedly said.

"Effective senior management engagement and leadership on financial crime had been lacking for a considerable period of time." And where there is effective senior management, the board makes sure to get rid of said management, because if it actually followed the law how could this megabank ever make money in Europe's monetary twilight zone.

Meanwhile, Deutsche Bank said it is cooperating with regulators to fundamentally reform its anti-financial crime program.

"We understand the importance of this issue and are committed to and engaged in fixing it", a company spokesman said in an emailed statement on Sunday.

This is only the latest brush-up between DB and the FCA: in late 2014, the UK regulator put Deutsche Bank's London office under enhanced supervision owing to concern about the bank's governance and controls. Enhanced supervision procedures are normally kept private and can follow fines. Following its review, Reuters reports, the FCA ordered a so-called skilled persons report - also called a Section 166 report - to assess remedial work Deutsche must now carry out.

Deutsche Bank's new chief executive, John Cryan, who took over in July, has embarked on a deep restructuring of the bank, which includes an overhaul of governance procedures.

Cryan announced in November a review of its know-your-client mechanisms and its vetting procedures when taking on new clients. It has also suspended taking on new customers from 109 countries which it has defined as high risk, compared with 30 countries it had earlier classified as too risky.

The report on the FCA letter comes not only days after the abovementioned acrimonious public squabble among members of Deutsche Bank's supervisory board and the ejection of the man heading the supervisory board's Integrity Committee, but also just weeks after Deutsche became the first bank to settle and admit to charges that it had manipulated the gold market, and had also agreed to expose other gold manipulation cartel members.

Tightening gold-silver ratio indicates monetary metals will keep rising: von Greyerz

Posted: 01 May 2016 04:58 PM PDT

7:58p ET Sunday, May 1, 2016

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Gold fund manager Egon von Greyerz tells King World News today that the tightening gold-silver ratio signals resumption of the bull market in the monetary metals, that negative interest rates are only weakening the world economy, and that the increasing manipulation of markets by central banks will lead to a spectacular bust. The interview with von Greyerz is excerpted at KWN here:

http://kingworldnews.com/egon-von-greyerz-warns-world-now-edge-total-cha...

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org


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Help keep GATA going

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FOMC Boosts Precious Metal Prices

Posted: 01 May 2016 04:00 PM PDT

by Kelly-Ann Kearsy, Gold Money:


This week, clients have been net buying gold, silver, and palladium.

Wednesday's FOMC release seemed to spark more buying acitivity from our clients as they took advantage of the lower pricing in advance of the FOMC statement. Clients have also been net selling their platinum positions to take advantage of the current platinum price which has risen to over USD1,030/oz this week.

GoldMoney's clients have been in favour of the Hong Kong, Swiss, and Singapore vaults this week with more or less preference being shown toward the London and Canadian vaults.


image/johnbetts-fineminerals.com

Kelly-Ann Kearsey, Dealing Manager at GoldMoney said that throughout the week the gold prices have been regaining their losses from last Friday, where a low of roughly $1,230/oz was seen. Silver has remained relatively stable to start the week, sitting at around USD17.00/oz.

The market has been watching for the FOMC statement which was released on Wednesday evening. In the last update, they confirmed that rate decision was to remain unchanged as was expected. They have now dropped comments of concern for the surrounding global outlook and remained confident of the labour markets but did also acknowledge that economic growth seemed to have slowed. They will continue to monitor as inflation is still below the 2% target.

Aftrer the comments released by the FOMC, gold made a quick recovery as it moved back towards USD1,250/oz moving into USD1,260/oz throughout Thursday. Silver also received support as it jumped to its highest in almost 1 year as it was boosted to roughly USD17.30/oz which has then increased to a spot high of USD 17.45/oz throughout the day.

Read More @ GoldMoney.com

London gold market is too secretive, gold researcher Ronan Manly says

Posted: 01 May 2016 01:22 PM PDT

4:20p ET Sunday, May 1, 2016

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Writing for Matterhorn Asset Management's Gold Switzerland Internet site, financial journalist Lars Schall today interviews gold researcher Ronan Manly about his analysis of the world's major gold markets. Manly says London's gold market is among the least transparent, "because the London Bullion Market Association and the banks they represent do not want anyone poking around and finding out what's really going on." Manly also comments in detail on the German and Russian gold markets.

The interview is posted in both audio and transcript formats at Bullion Star's Internet site here:

https://goldswitzerland.com/ronan-manly-will-economics-dictate-a-gold-pr...

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org


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Or a colorful poster of GATA's full-page ad in The Wall Street Journal on January 31, 2009:

http://gata.org/node/wallstreetjournal

Help keep GATA going

GATA is a civil rights and educational organization based in the United States and tax-exempt under the U.S. Internal Revenue Code. Its e-mail dispatches are free, and you can subscribe at:

http://www.gata.org

To contribute to GATA, please visit:

http://www.gata.org/node/16

Ronan Manly – Will Economics Dictate a Gold Price Rise?

Posted: 01 May 2016 12:27 PM PDT

THE MATTERHORN INTERVIEW: Ronan Manly – April 2016

"Economics will dictate that the price of gold is going to rise"

For Matterhorn Asset Management, Lars Schall spoke with Ronan Manly, who is an investment professional and research analyst with an interest in the monetary gold market. He is currently working as a consultant precious metals analyst for BullionStar Singapore. Ronan's … Read the rest

Gold Commitments of Traders and More

Posted: 01 May 2016 09:59 AM PDT

Gold is showing some very good strength at this time, as the weaker dollar, combined with negative interest rates, and in some instances, NEGATIVE REAL RATES, has made the opportunity cost in holding the metal practically non-existent. Throw in the continued uncertainty over global equity market valuations, and gold demand continues to remain strong. As noted previously however,the recent lackluster interest in GLD is on my radar screen however.

The Magic of Gold Ratio Charts

Posted: 01 May 2016 09:44 AM PDT

The first point I would like to make is that many of you are probably wondering how I could reverse my long term bearish view on the precious metals complex to a bullish view in such a short period of time. The other point I've been trying to make is to get you positioned and sit tight, as this new bull market is just getting started. Understanding the Chartology of this sector from the many different precious metals stock indexes, to individual PM stocks and especially the combo ratio charts, paints a picture that if one keeps an open mind and truly understands what is taking place right now, getting positioned and sitting tight makes alot of sense. This is easier said than done of course.

Gold Stocks XAU Reversion to the Mean

Posted: 01 May 2016 09:19 AM PDT

Regression to the mean. There is one universal law in this business and it never never gets broken. Price always regresses to the mean. This one is like death and taxes. It is never violated. And the further price stretches in one direction the harder it moves back once the trend comes to an end.

Trump's Wall Has Got Mexico In Panic Mode

Posted: 01 May 2016 08:23 AM PDT

The wall is going to be called ...The NO WAY JOSE. wall'La Raza' and 'BLM' are both sickening terrorist gang organizations. The Financial Armageddon Economic Collapse Blog tracks trends and forecasts , futurists , visionaries , free investigative journalists , researchers ,...

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Future Money Trends Interview on Silver

Posted: 01 May 2016 06:25 AM PDT

Silver closed around $17.80 per ounce, well up from its December low around $13.60.  It should be much higher by the end of 2016 and certainly into 2017.  My interview with Future Money Trends...

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Gold Price has $1,308 in this Move, and Much More

Posted: 01 May 2016 04:43 AM PDT

22-Apr-1629-Apr-16Change% Change
Silver Price, cents/oz.1,689.601,778.9089.305.3
Gold Price, dollars/oz.1,228.701,289.2060.504.9
Gold/silver ratio72.72172.472-0.250-0.3
Silver/gold ratio0.01380.01380.00000.3
Dow in Gold Dollars (DIG$)302.90284.99-17.90-5.9
Dow in gold ounces14.6513.79-0.87-5.9
Dow in Silver ounces1,065.56999.14-66.43-6.2
Dow Industrials18,003.7517,773.64-230.11-1.3
S&P5002,091.582,065.30-26.28-1.3
US dollar index95.0893.03-2.05-2.2
Platinum1,010.001,077.9067.906.7
Palladium607.15627.9020.753.4

IMPORTANT NOTE: The following are wholesale, not retail, prices. To figure
the-moneychanger.com retail selling price, multiply the "ask" price by 1.035. To figure our retail buying price, multiple the "bid" price by 0.97. Lower commissions apply to larger orders, higher commissions to very small orders.

SPOT GOLD PRICE:1,292.90
GOLDFine Tr.Oz.BIDASK$/oz
American Eagle1.001,330.391,336.211,336.21
1/2 AE0.50658.87682.001,364.01
1/4 AE0.25332.66347.471,389.87
1/10 AE0.10135.65141.571,415.73
Aust. 100 corona0.981,260.961,269.961,295.62
British sovereign0.24306.63319.631,357.82
French 20 franc0.19243.19247.191,324.02
Krugerrand1.001,304.541,314.541,314.54
Maple Leaf1.001,302.901,316.901,316.90
1/2 Maple Leaf0.50743.42678.771,357.55
1/4 Maple Leaf0.25329.69345.851,383.40
1/10 Maple Leaf0.10137.05140.931,409.26
Mexican 50 peso1.211,547.811,558.811,292.87
.9999 bar1.001,297.431,304.901,304.90
SPOT SILVER PRICE:17.85
SILVERFine Tr.Oz.BIDASK$/oz
VG+ Morgan $B4 19050.7722.5026.0033.99
VG+ Peace dollar0.7717.5020.0026.14
90% silver coin bags0.7213,295.4313,580.4318.99
US 40% silver 1/2s0.305,146.285,308.2817.99
100 oz .999 bar100.001,809.501,834.5018.35
10 oz .999 bar10.00179.95184.9518.50
1 oz .999 round1.0017.9518.4118.41
Am Eagle, 200 oz Min1.0019.3520.6020.60
SPOT PLATINUM PRICE:1,077.90
PLATINUMFine Tr.Oz.BIDASK$/oz
Platinum Platypus1.001,092.901,122.901,122.90

Friday I had to leave early to take my dear wife Susan on a camping trip with one of our sons and his family, so I am sending this out Saturday, & 'twill be short & sweet. 

This week came the last straw on the camels' backs. For stocks, it was down, the death of their rally, the proof of their bear market. For silver & gold, it was an upside breakout that will carry gold toward $1,400 and silver toward 1850¢. The dollar is puking sick. Lost 2.05% this week. Close below 92.50 sends it tumbling toward 80. 

Take the US dollar index first, for backdrop. http://schrts.co/OkJ5UT 

Mid-April it broke out of a falling wedge, so should have rallied. Didn't. Went sideways instead, still trading near the bottom of its year long 100 - 92.50 range. Then Kuroda of the Bank of Japan announced this week they weren't taking interest rates further negative, which markets interpreted same as a rate rise. All that speculative hope that the Fed would raise rates just melted like nasty margarine on a July table. Dollar plunged through the bottom of its short term trading range, through the downtrend line from last May, which had supported it, & closed lower than the low of the falling wedge, negating that breakout utterly. 

Dollar's credibility for the next few years hangs in the balance. Closed Friday at 93.03, down 70 basis points on top of 69 lost Thursday. Low Friday was 92.97. If the dollar index breaks 92.50, there is no coming back. 

This turmoil has taken the yen sharply higher. I cannot naively believe that the Fed knew nothing of Japanese intentions, nay, I always assume all central bank criminals collude. This might mean (this is all guesswork on my part, no claim to inside information, messages from outer space, etc.) that the Japanese and Fed have struck a deal to let the dollar drop for a while. 

After a rotten egg day Thursday pasting the Dow with a 211 point drop (1.17%), it dropped another 57.12 (0.32%) Friday to 17,773.64. Chart shows that however you want to slice it, Dow has broken down, confirming Thursday and Friday with solid consecutive closes below its 20 DMA. Dow lost 19.34 (0.92%) Thursday, and another 10.51 (0.51%) Friday leaving it at 2,065.30. Both indices have fractured, broken down. Transmission is lying on the asphalt. Can move, but only rolling downhill, and will gain momentum. 

Dow in gold lost 2.38% Friday, closed at 13.73 oz. Fell through uptrend line from the 2011 low, again. Upward correction that began in February has ended, next large move is earthward & toward the earth's core. http://schrts.co/8Sv0tc 

Dow in silver closed just a gnat's whisker above the February 991.46 low, namely, 993.50 oz. Will plunge further as stocks drop & silver surges. http://schrts.co/ohwLZP 

Friday gold pole-vaulted all resistance, up $23.70 (1.87%) to $1,289.20. Silver high jumped 23.6 (1.52%) to 1778.9¢, and I am now plumb out of field & track metaphors. 

For the week Gold surged 4.9% and silver 5.3%. Best week in a long, long time. 

The Gold Price has now cleared clean every hurdle but 2015's high at $1,307.80. However, this surge promises much more, a run to $1,350 at least, maybe $1,400 before it pauses. 

Please, y'all, go look at gold's chart: http://schrts.co/YKiKpQ 

Add up what gold has won: It stands above its 200 day moving average, and not merely above but has stayed above since February, which hasn't happened since 2012 & 2014, but with this difference: then it poked its head through the 200, peaked, and wore down. In 2016 it punched sharply, hugely up and continues to climb. Whoops, I forgot: gold also stands above the downtrend from the 2012 high. And it broke upward out of a bowl in January. All this proves that the December lows were THE lows for the post-2011 correction. 

Friday it closed above the March intraday high ($1,287.80) and hit a new intraday high at $1,299.00 Next week it should conquer $1,307.80. 

The Gold Price  has broken out upside -- but not yet conquered the post-2011 downtrend line -- on its weekly and monthly charts. 200 week MA is at $1,325.40. Gold will flash very bright omens when it closes above that. Bear in mind silver this week BROKE OUT HEAVENWARD on its monthly chart & stands above its 200 WMA. On the weekly, silver has broken through the post-2011 downtrend line, the Big One. 

Y'all look at the silver chart, too, http://schrts.co/t9IUae 

Silver's chart, at first glance, doesn't argue for new highs like gold's. Maybe Friday's close above the upper range boundary was just a throwover. Look how overbought that RSI is! Not to Mention the MACD. 
Yep, but volume is rising, and overbought can get overboughter. It appears that after silver tugging and pulling gold higher, gold will now return the favour and tug silver up toward 1850¢.

What would put the stick in their spokes? What will gainsay my expectation of higher highs? A price collapse on Monday. A severe decline, and I don't mean merely backing off $10 for gold, I mean closing below $1,287 AND dropping further. Sharp down move. 

That is NOT what I expect to see. Gold Price has $1,308 in this move, and much more. And this rally should carry into June. 

But then, what in the world do I know? Nothing. I ain't no more'n a nat'ral born durned fool from Tennessee who don't know that "stock broker" don't mean "you bought stocks so you are broker than I am 

-- You are STOCK BROKER!" 

Y'all enjoy your weekend.

Aurum et argentum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2016, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission. To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 18 ounces of silver.  US $ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.


One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.
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