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Wednesday, May 11, 2016

Gold World News Flash

Gold World News Flash


Should the Gold Price Keep Up with Inflation?

Posted: 11 May 2016 12:19 AM PDT

Monetary Metals

Shots Fired: "OPEC Has Practically Stopped Existing" - Rosneft CEO Mocks Defunct Oil Cartel

Posted: 10 May 2016 11:57 PM PDT

Russia is moving full steam ahead with its plan to kill the petro-dollar, and is burying OPEC's influence along with it. 

As we reported earlier, Russia has taken its next step toward de-dollarization by launching its own benchmark oil futures contract that will price oil in rubles instead of USD. Now, it appears as though Russia has deemed it is time to start chipping away at OPEC and its power within the oil space.

According to Reuters, Rosneft CEO and close Putin ally Igor Sechin had some harsh words to say about the oil cartel, and effectively announced its demise.

"At the moment a number of objective factors exclude the possibility for any cartels to dictate their will to the market. As for OPEC, it has practically stopped existing as a united organization."

As a reminder, Russia was seemingly willing to agree to a deal in Doha earlier this year that would have frozen production at certain levels among the participating countries, however last minute changes by Saudi Arabia and other OPEC countries (namely that OPEC wanted Iran to be a part of the deal) blew the deal up and pissed Russia off.

"Some OPEC countries decided to change their terms at the last moment, trying to get concessions from countries that are not here. We were insisting on trying to concentrate on the countries which are. How can Iran be the reason for the talks' failure, when it wasn't even here."

Perhaps that was the final straw for Russia, as it appears that Moscow now will choose to go it alone from here on out. Sechin was quick to remind everyone that Rosneft was skeptical of the Doha deal to begin with, and is now exhibiting a little bit of "I told you so."

"The company was skeptical from the very beginning about the possibility of reaching any sort of joint agreement with OPEC's involvement in current conditions. Just to remind you, the only one question with which we responded to those who were interested to know our position: 'Who should we agree with, and how?' The development of the situation has clearly shown we were right."

Sechin indicates that the new normal will be one in which the market - and technology - sets the prices for oil, not OPEC.

"At the moment, key factors which are influencing the market are finance, technology and regulation. We can see this with the example of shale which became a powerful tool of influence on the global market."

Meanwhile, just in case the Kremlin's message is not being received clearly enough by everyone, Russia is fully intent to take advantage of what it sees as impotent White House leadership, is doing everything in its power to end US dominance both politically and economically, and is flexing its military muscles, as well as its economic power over the energy market in order to establish a resurgent global leadership position in both arenas.

Will Alberta’s Devastating Wildfires Bring the Canadian Economy to Its Knees?

Posted: 10 May 2016 09:00 PM PDT

by Nathan McDonald, Sprott Money:

Many are calling it a “death blow” to Alberta’s economy. The wildfires that have ravaged the province have been monstrous and of epic proportions. The horrific images of families driving through literal infernos to escape have been seen around the world and have made international news.

This fire has caused so much destruction and damage to those living in Fort McMurray and its surrounding area that it’s turned the area into a ghost town, one that will be likely uninhabitable for large parts for years to come.

Another fear was whether or not these fires were going to wipe out large swathes of the area’s oil production, finishing off any hope of recovery for the Canadian economy. Canada’s economy has been utterly ravaged by the collapse in the price of oil over the past few years and appears to have no hopes of recovering if the fires destroyed these reserves.

Fortunately, the firefighters that have been bravely battling these flames were able to hold off the blaze and keep the fire away from strategic locations, saving this valuable commodity and lifeblood of the area.

Already this fire has wiped out over 1 million barrels of oil per day of production, which equates to about half of Canada’s production in the oil sands region. A massive loss to say the least, but fortunately, only a small setback given the alternative.

Unfortunately, these losses are only going to get worse going into the future, as there is no clear target in sight as to when displaced workers and their families will be able to return to the area, causing production to remain at a standstill until then. The drinking water is undrinkable in Fort McMurray and the power grid has been largely destroyed.

Read More @ SprottMoney.com

The Washington Post Accuses Stingy Americans Of Ruining Obama's Recovery

Posted: 10 May 2016 08:27 PM PDT

Every year it's the same: some legacy mainstream media mouthpiece muses on how great Obama's recovery would be... if only it wasn't for stingy US consumers refusing to spend like the drunken sailors of days gone by. Last June, it was the WSJ's Jon Hilsenrath who actually wrote a letter to American consumers, confused by their unwillingness to spend and explicitly accused them of being "stingy" even as the "Federal Reserve was counting" on them to spend, spend, spend. For those who have forgotten this absolute pearl, here it is again:

Dear American Consumer,

 

This is The Wall Street Journal. We're writing to ask if something is bothering you.

 

The sun shined in April and you didn't spend much money. The Commerce Department here in Washington says your spending didn't increase at all adjusted for inflation last month compared to March. You appear to have mostly stayed home and watched television in December, January and February as well. We thought you would be out of your winter doldrums by now, but we don't see much evidence that this is the case.

 

You have been saving more too. You socked away 5.6% of your income in April after taxes, even more than in March. This saving is not like you. What's up?

 

We know you experienced a terrible shock when Lehman Brothers collapsed in 2008 and your employer responded by firing you. We know stock prices collapsed and that was shocking too. We also know you shouldn't have taken out that large second mortgage during the housing boom to fix up your kitchen with granite countertops.  You've been working very hard to pay off this debt and we admire your fortitude. But these shocks seem like a long time ago to us in a newsroom. Is that still what's holding you back?

 

Do you know the American economy is counting on you? We can't count on the rest of the world to spend money on our stuff. The rest of the world is in an even worse mood than you are. You should feel lucky you're not a Greek consumer. And China, well they're truly struggling there just to reach the very modest goal of 7% growth.

 

The Federal Reserve is counting on you too. Fed officials want to start raising the cost of your borrowing because they worry they've been giving you a free ride for too long with zero interest rates. We listen to Fed officials all of the time here at The Wall Street Journal, and they just can't figure you out.

 

Please let us know the problem. You can reach us at any of the emails below.

 

Sincerely,

 

The Wall Street Journal's Central Bank Team

 

-By Jon Hilsenrath

In retrospect, we can't help but chuckle at the part about "Fed officials want to start raising the cost of your borrowing because they worry they've been giving you a free ride for too long with zero interest rates."

That said, one year later, it's the turn of that other administration mouthpiece (owned no less by the man who has converted US consumerism into a business empire, Amazon's Jeff Bezos) the Washington Post, to dwell on precisely the same topic: why are Americans so paralyzed from fears over a recession that ended so long ago, that instead of spending, American consumers are rushing to save in the process preventing Obama's wonderful recovery from blooming.

While it does not go so far as Hilsenrath in explicitly accusing consumers of being "stingy", it does so indirectly when the author of what appears to be a hit piece aimed at the US middle class, or all those who no longer believe in maxing out their credit card, Robert Samuelson says that the real drag in the US economy is "us", by which he means all those Americans refusing to go out and buy "stuff" (well, maybe not Samuelson: we are confident Samuelson is well compensated by Jeff Bezos to inspire even more AMZN bottom-line boosting consumerism). As a result, "American consumers aren't what they used to be .... and that helps explain the plodding economic recovery."

You see, dear American consumers, it's all your fault. Not soaring, record rents, not spiking health insurance premiums that are eating away at your last disposable dollar, not that the so many of the "jobs created" in recent years have been part-time or minimum wage, not the fact that under ZIRP you can't generate any interest income and are forced to save even more for retirement, not that as a result of central bank policy pension and retirement funds are unveiling cuts to retiree benefits,  not that real disposable incomes have gone nowhere in the past decade, not even that a third of US households can no longer even afford the basics of food, rent and transportation...

It's your unwillingness to spend; it is - in the words of the WaPo author - "the surge in saving that is the real drag on the economy."

Really. Here is the full article:

American consumers aren't what they used to be — and that helps explain the plodding economic recovery. It gets no respect despite creating 14 million jobs and lasting almost seven years. The great gripe is that economic growth has been held to about 2 percent a year, well below historical standards. This sluggishness reflects a profound psychological transformation of American shoppers, who have dampened their consumption spending, affecting about two-thirds of the economy. To be blunt: We have sobered up.

 

This, as much as any campaign proposal, may shape our economic future. There's an Old Consumer and a New Consumer, divided by the Great Recession. The Old Consumer borrowed eagerly and spent freely. The New Consumer saves soberly and spends prudently. Of course, there are millions of exceptions to these generalizations. Before the recession, not everyone was a credit addict; now, not everyone is a disciplined saver. Still, vast changes in beliefs and habits have occurred.

 

A Gallup poll shows just how vast. In 2001, Gallup began asking: "Are you the type of person who more enjoys spending money or who more enjoys saving money?" Early responses were almost evenly split; in 2006, 50 percent preferred saving and 45 percent favored spending. After the 2008-2009 financial crisis, the gap widened spectacularly. In 2016, 65 percent said saving and only 33 percent spending.

 

What's happening is the opposite of the credit boom that caused the financial crisis. Then, Americans skimped on saving and binged on borrowing. This stimulated the economy. Now, the reverse is happening. Americans are repaying old debt, avoiding new debt and saving more. Although consumer spending has hardly collapsed, it provides less stimulus than before. (A conspicuous exception: light-vehicle sales, which hit a record 17.4 million in 2015).

 

Consider the personal savings rate: the difference between Americans' after-tax income and their spending. If a household has income of $50,000 and spends $45,000, its savings rate is 10 percent. Here are actual figures. From 1990 to 2005, the savings rate dropped from 7.8 percent to 2.6 percent. Since then, the savings rate has risen; it was 5.1 percent in 2015.

 

Federal Reserve figures on debt tell a similar story. From 1999 to 2007, household borrowing (mainly home mortgages and credit card debt) increased nearly 10 percent annually, far faster than income gains. People mistakenly believed that they could safely borrow against the inflated values of their homes and stocks. Now, borrowing is subdued. In 2015, household debt of $14 trillion was unchanged from 2007. While many consumers borrowed, others repaid or defaulted.

 

The surge in saving is the real drag on the economy. It has many causes. "People got a cruel lesson about [the dangers] of debt," says economist Matthew Shapiro of the University of Michigan. Households also save more to replace the losses suffered on homes and stocks. But much saving is precautionary: Having once assumed that a financial crisis of the 2008-2009 variety could never happen, people now save to protect themselves against the unknown. Research by economist Mark Zandi of Moody's Analytics finds higher saving at all income levels. 

 

In theory, it's easy to replace lost consumer demand. In practice, it's not so easy. Businesses could build more factories and shopping malls. But with weaker consumer spending, do we need them? More exports would help, but economies abroad are weak.

 

Government policies are also frustrated. The Fed's low interest rates don't work if people don't want to borrow. Ditto for tax cuts. During the Great Recession, Congress enacted several temporary tax cuts to boost consumer spending. The effect was modest, as studies by Shapiro and his collaborators found. Take the case of the two-percentage-point suspension of the Social Security payroll tax in 2011 and 2012. Two-thirds of the tax cut went to saving and repaying debt — not spending.

The horror...

There is more but we'll cut off here, wondering why the WaPo article did not have a disclaimer that it is owned by the world's largest retailer by market capitalization, and will instead add to the scorn.

Yes, dear broke American consumers which once made up the world's most vibrant middle class: please stop being such a nuisance and source of confusion to nice Op-Ed columnists at the WaPo, the WSJ and, of course, the Fed and their $4.5 trillion in direct injections into the offshore bank accounts of America's wealthiest 1%, and instead go ahead and splurge all your savings on trinkets, gadgets and gizmos you don't need.

Only that way will Obama's recovery be truly complete.

The Trumpinator

Posted: 10 May 2016 08:00 PM PDT

Donald Trump's method to deal with the republican nomination process during the US presidential election 2016. The Financial Armageddon Economic Collapse Blog tracks trends and forecasts , futurists , visionaries , free investigative journalists , researchers , Whistelblowers , truthers...

[[ This is a content summary only. Visit http://www.newsbooze.com or http://www.figanews.com for full links, other content, and more! ]]

Goldman Closes "Short Gold" Recommendation With 4.5% Loss; Will Continue Buying Gold From Its Clients

Posted: 10 May 2016 07:37 PM PDT

Back on February 15, just as the USD was about to plunge unleashing a global risk-on rally as a result of "Yuan stability", Goldman triumphantly announcecd its latest trading recommendation: short gold (at $1,205) with a target of $1000 and a 7% stop loss.

 

This being Goldman - the one hedge fund whose prop traders immediately take the other side of all trades pitches to clients - said clients were immediately and brutally taken to the cleaners as the consequence of a tumbling dollar (another trade that Goldman got disastrously wrong) was soaring gold. And that is precisely what happened. After that, unofficially, it took just two and a half months for Goldman to get stopped out of its short gold recommendation, which as we first noted, happened on April 29, when its the price soared above $1,300 breaching Goldman's stop. Officially, Goldman's Jeff Currie decided to take his time, although he too finally threw in the towel today admitting Goldman was wrong yet again with one more trading recommendation (recall that Goldman had earlier been stopped out and lost money on 5 of its Top 6 trades for 2016 in just over a month).

But instead of doing the right thing and also admitting it has zero idea how to trade gold, where it will go next or what the catalysts are, Goldman decided to change its price targets, and instead of predicting $1,100/oz in three months, Goldman has generously pushed its price target by $100 higher to $1200 (and $1,050 over 12 months), even as gold traded just shy of $1300 a few days ago and only dropped as a result of the recent USD rally.

In other words, Goldman admits it was wrong, but still remains indirectly short as it is still hoping to skewer even more muppets on the very same trade it has gotten wrong for the past 3 months... and in the process buy their gold if possible.

Here is the "explanation"

Our US economists recently reduced their forecast for Fed funds rate hikes over the next 12 months from 100 bp to 50 bp. Corresponding with this, our global rates team has lowered its forecast profile for 10-year US real rates over the same period. As a result, we reduce the downside to our gold price forecast, raising the 3/6/12 month forecast profile to $1,200/1,180/1,150/oz from $1,100/1,050/1,000/oz. Our new year average price forecasts are $1,202/1,150/1,150/oz from $1,124/1,000/1,050/oz. Though we forecast that gold prices will decline from spot over the next 3-12 months (with c.5%-9% downside), for reasons which we detail below, the changes to our economists' rates forecasts act to reduce the degree of downside to our modelled gold price profile and thus change the risk-reward of our previously implemented short gold trade recommendation (published February 15), which we close as a result at a c.4.5% loss.

Or, you could have simply remembered that you had a 7% stop and that you were stopped out 2 weeks ago, which any trader would know very well if he actually had the trade on instead of just using it as bait for clients to unload their gold. Perhaps Mr. Currie can also tell us what Goldman's "flow" trader P&L was on the "short gold" trade. 

On the other hand, since nothing could have been more bearish for gold than Goldman going outright long the metal, we are delighted that Goldman is still buying gold - as it asks its clients to sell it their gold - because it means that the upside for gold remains unlimited. This is also the opposite of what Goldman has tried to - yet again - convince the handful of Kermits who bother to even listen to the taxpayer bailed out hedge fund with the worst trading recommendation record since Tom Stolper (incidentally another former Goldmanite) and of course Dennis Gartman.

For those who care, this is what else Currie said - it is mostly a verbatim copy of what he said in mid-February with the exception that he now admits he was wrong then, and that he is "rising" his target price by $100.

In our view, the gold rally during 1Q16 was driven primarily by concerns about the ability of US policy rates to diverge, corresponding Fed dovishness, and US real rates weakness, as well as a depreciating US dollar (both against the G10 currencies as well as against the EM currencies, the latter on the back of a transitory China credit stimulus). Furthermore, we have seen the largest ever increase in gold net speculative positioning over the past three months, with net speculative length now near its post global financial crisis peak.

Looking ahead, we see limited upside for gold pricing given the limited room for the Fed to surprise to the downside (the market is pricing c.16 bp by end of 2016 and less than one 25 bp Fed Funds rate hike over the next 12 months), limited room for the dollar to depreciate (net speculative positioning is the shortest it has been since early 2013, Exhibit 1, please see Global Markets Daily: The Dollar Bottom, published May 10, for details), and limited room for China to drive EM currency strength to contribute to dollar weakness.

 

While the upside risks to gold pricing appear relatively limited from here, we see a number of catalysts for gold prices to moderate, including a more hawkish Fed and ultimately US policy rate divergence (Exhibit 3), corresponding with gradual dollar appreciation over the next 3-12 months. Indeed, while Friday's jobs report was a modest disappointment, with a 160k rise in nonfarm payrolls, some downward revisions to prior months, and declines in both household employment and labor force participation that reversed some of the big gains of the prior six months, the bigger picture, in our view, is still one of gradual acceleration as the US labor market moves to full employment and temporary factors such as the weakness in energy, import, and healthcare costs become less important as we move through 2016. As such, we still see the economy on a path that will prompt the FOMC to restart the normalization process before too long—most likely in September but perhaps as early as July. After the soggy numbers of the past two quarters, we expect GDP growth to rebound to a 2¼% pace as the drag from the earlier FCI tightening (Exhibit 5)—which by our estimates has subtracted about one per centage point from growth recently—abates and the fundamentals for domestic demand, especially housing and consumption, remain favorable.

This next sentence is our favorite:

In addition, there are reasons to believe that the risk off environment which contributed to gold's outperformance at the beginning of this year is less likely to repeat in the near future as confidence in Chinese growth, Chinese currency stability, and the potential for a collapse in oil prices is much reduced.

Why is it our favorite? Because just a few hours earlier another Goldman report warned that in its quest to keep the bond market stable, central banks may unleash "Financial Turbulence" and "Rate Shock." We can only assume that Currie had no idea. It's almost as if Goldman doesn't even bother to pretend to have a coherent story when ripping clients off.

As for Goldman's vapid, deja vu conclusion...

In terms of risks surrounding our bearish gold view, we view them as broadly balanced. An upside risk to our forecast is that lower-than-expected Chinese growth significantly impacts US equities, consumer confidence, and growth, thereby resulting in lower increases in real rates relative to our forecast profile. A downside risk relative to our base case is a large reduction in the pace of Chinese and Russian central bank buying (since mid last year, buying has been running at a very high rate of c.450 tonnes per annum).

... it is missing just one thing: what is Goldman's next stop loss, because that is where gold is really headed next.

Commercial Gold 'Hedgers' Turn Up the Heat

Posted: 10 May 2016 07:11 PM PDT

Michael Ballanger discusses the most recent COT report, which shows levels not seen since 2010–2011.

IT’S THE “COMMERCIALS” THAT SHOULD BE SCARED!

Posted: 10 May 2016 07:10 PM PDT

by Andy Hoffman, Miles Franklin:

It's Tuesday and I'm sure everyone wants to hear about yesterday's blitzkrieg, borderline "named storm" Cartel raid.  Let's call it the "post NFP lunacy" attack; although frankly, given the dozen or so "massively PM-bullish, everything-else-bearish" headlines" of the weekend – from plunging Chinese trade data; to Greek unrest; and Donald Trump essentially hinting of his intention to default on Treasuries, I could have named it plenty of other equally appropriate names.  The fact is, that never before have Precious Metals been so undervalued, scarce, or logical – and conversely, never before have "the powers that be" been so thoroughly trapped by their failed policies.  Consequently, the methods they utilize to "kick the can" – despite having mere inchesleft of ground; are more draconian – and blatant than ever – with far direr ramifications.  Particularly in the physical arena, where each illogical, illegal paper raid lower causes the already suffocating supply/demand noose to tighten further around their necks.

Yes, many subscription-based newsletter writers are desperate to claim their "proprietary" COT analysis predicted it; when the fact is, the Cartel's record naked shorts had failed to stop gold and silver from rising from $1,069/oz and $14.14/oz five months ago, to $1,279/oz and $17.43/oz as of last Tuesday's COT data, on May 3rd.  Let alone, to the highs of $1,303/oz and $17.95/oz, respectively, on May 2nd.  I mean, talk about the "broken clock being right twice a day" syndrome; as such "COT analysis" was essentially predicting that the Cartel would successfully attack atsome point – as if they haven't attacked paper prices every day for the past 15 years.  I mean, the FACT is, that they are miserably failing to hold prices down, amidst their biggest, most blatant naked short positions of all time.

a1 a2

Putting it into perspective, for those so terrified by the Cartel's "omniscience" – here's all the "commercials" accomplished in naked shorting 291,990 and 60,773 gold and silver contracts, respectively, from December 1st, 2015 through May 3rd, 2016.  That's roughly $34 billion and $5 billion of gold and silver shorts on the COMEX exchange alone – in both cases, representing roughly one-third of worldwide annual physical production.  And what did it get them?  Well, gold and silver prices rose by 20%-25% – and who knows how much more shorting was required to prevent prices from rising further late last week, particularly after Friday's Fed-killing NFP jobs report?

a3

Well, after yesterday's "named storm" attack, gold and silver are barely down from where they were at the time of last Tuesday's COT data cutoff – at $1,263/oz and $17.07/oz, respectively, versus $1,279/oz and $17.43/oz.  So frankly, it's hard to be "scared half to death" by such a modest "correction," even if the newsletter fear-mongerers, desperate for you to churn your paper positions, want you to believe so.  Not to mention, as the principal reason one should own gold and silver is not to "profit" from paper trades, butprotect and insure oneself with real, physical metal.  Let alone, at a time of comprehensive global monetary risk unparalleled in history!

Read More @ Milesfranklin.com

ICE Agent Commits Suicide in NYC; Leaves Note Revealing Gov’t Plans to Round-up & DISARM Americans During Economic & Bank Collapse

Posted: 10 May 2016 07:07 PM PDT

If the American people knew what this government is planning, they would rise-up and overthrow it.

from Superstation95:

[Ed. Note: It should be stated that these could simply be the paranoid ramblings of an insane person who killed himself.]

After writing a lengthy suicide note exposing terrifying plans the government has for American citizens, a US Customs Agent walked onto a pier in NYC and blew his brains out.

Sources inside the New York City Police Department have revealed to SuperStation95, the contents of a suicide note found on the body and they are utterly frightening.

The note, which says it was written over the course of a full week in advance, outlines why the officer chose to shoot himself:

 

“The America I grew up in, and cherished, has been murdered by its own federal government.  Our Constitution has become meaningless and our laws politicized so badly, they are no longer enforced except for political purposes” the note said.  “Our elected officials are, to a person, utterly corrupt and completely devoid of any love or respect for the country which pays them.  To them, everything is about getting and keeping power, and making illicit money from backroom deals.”

The 42-year-old U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement deportation officer shot himself with a 40 caliber service pistol inside Pier 40 in Hudson River Park at around 11 am. (1)

A source at the scene described how the officer calmly walked into the park, took out his  pistol and shot himself in the head.

ICE released a statement Friday afternoon: ‘Tragically, a U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) deportation officer from the New York field office suffered a self-inflicted gunshot wound and has passed away.’

It added: ‘The agency is not releasing further details pending notification of the officer’s next of kin.

According to the suicide note, the Officer said:

“I was hired to enforce the law; to capture and deport people who come to this country against our laws.  But now, if I dare to do that, I face being suspended or fired because our President refuses to faithfully execute the duties of his office.  Instead, I come to work each day, and collect a paycheck twice a month, for intentionally doing little to nothing.  I cannot and will not be party to this fraud; to this usurpation of the law, or to the despicable politicians betraying our nation”  the note continued.

ICE’s Office of Professional Responsibility is reviewing the matter and coordinating with the New York Police Department on the investigation.

The agent worked at a field office in lower Manhattan, just blocks away from the scene of the shooting.

MENTIONS “FEMA CAMPS” FOR AMERICANS (3)

In the suicide note, the officer revealed what he claimed are terrifying plans the feds have been finalizing:

“If the American people knew what this government is planning, they would rise-up and overthrow it. If I or anyone else in the federal government revealed what is coming, we would be killed anyway, so now I will reveal what I know.

We in federal law enforcement have been drilling for several years to control riots and uprisings from a coming financial collapse and widespread bank failures. The drills involve life-sized images of American men, even women and children, whom we are told to shoot for “practice” and to “get used to it.”

We have been told that the economy is terminally ill and will fail in 2016. We are also told the banks are all insolvent and the FDIC doesn’t have nearly enough funds to bail out depositors.  We are told these events are unavoidable and it is imperative that the government survive when people rise-up over this.

When the collapse takes place,  detention camps created under the FEMA REX-84 program in the 1980’s to house illegal aliens whom we were going to deport, will instead be used to imprison American Citizens whom the government feels constitute a “threat.”  American citizens will be rounded-up without warrants and imprisoned without trial for God knows how long.

These camps have been equipped to carry out Hitler-scale killings! An actual “purge” of Americans citizens by the very government which they, themselves, created and pay for!  I cannot be party to this.”

The  Note goes on to say talk about state-level national guard being disarmed by the feds (4) and over 1 Billion rounds of ammunition purchased by the feds(5)   and the Military over-deployed and being shrunk(6) :

ICE released a statement Friday afternoon: ‘Tragically, a U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) deportation officer from the New York field office suffered a self-inflicted gunshot wound and has passed away.’

It added: ‘The agency is not releasing further details pending notification of the officer’s next of kin.

According to the suicide note, the Officer said:

“I was hired to enforce the law; to capture and deport people who come to this country against our laws.  But now, if I dare to do that, I face being suspended or fired because our President refuses to faithfully execute the duties of his office.  Instead, I come to work each day, and collect a paycheck twice a month, for intentionally doing little to nothing.  I cannot and will not be party to this fraud; to this usurpation of the law, or to the despicable politicians betraying our nation”  the note continued.

ICE’s Office of Professional Responsibility is reviewing the matter and coordinating with the New York Police Department on the investigation.

The agent worked at a field office in lower Manhattan, just blocks away from the scene of the shooting.

MENTIONS “FEMA CAMPS” FOR AMERICANS (3)

In the suicide note, the officer revealed what he claimed are terrifying plans the feds have been finalizing:

“If the American people knew what this government is planning, they would rise-up and overthrow it. If I or anyone else in the federal government revealed what is coming, we would be killed anyway, so now I will reveal what I know.

We in federal law enforcement have been drilling for several years to control riots and uprisings from a coming financial collapse and widespread bank failures. The drills involve life-sized images of American men, even women and children, whom we are told to shoot for “practice” and to “get used to it.”

We have been told that the economy is terminally ill and will fail in 2016. We are also told the banks are all insolvent and the FDIC doesn’t have nearly enough funds to bail out depositors.  We are told these events are unavoidable and it is imperative that the government survive when people rise-up over this.

When the collapse takes place,  detention camps created under the FEMA REX-84 program in the 1980’s to house illegal aliens whom we were going to deport, will instead be used to imprison American Citizens whom the government feels constitute a “threat.”  American citizens will be rounded-up without warrants and imprisoned without trial for God knows how long.

These camps have been equipped to carry out Hitler-scale killings! An actual “purge” of Americans citizens by the very government which they, themselves, created and pay for!  I cannot be party to this.”

The  Note goes on to say talk about state-level national guard being disarmed by the feds (4) and over 1 Billion rounds of ammunition purchased by the feds(5)   and the Military over-deployed and being shrunk(6) :

Read More @ Superstation95.com

SOURCING / CORROBORATION

(1) ICE Agent Suicide in NYC:   NY Daily News

(2) Taken to Lenox Hill Hospital   NY Post

(3) REX-84 FEMA CAMPS   Wikipedia

(4) National Guard being stripped of Crew-Serviceable Weapons and communications gear – Republic Broadcasting, John Stadmiller

(5)  Dept. of Homeland Security Orders 1.6 BILLION rounds of ammunition   Forbes Magazine

(6)  US Army over-deployed and intentionally shrunk  ARMY TIMES

(7)  Clergy Recruited by Gov’t to quell opposition   KSLA-TV Channel 12 

(8) Executive Order 13603   White House      US Government Printing Office

RELATED:

Hillary Clinton Son-In-Law's Hedge Fund Shuts Down Greek Fund After 90% Loss

Posted: 10 May 2016 06:51 PM PDT

Despite having Goldman Sachs CEO Lloyd Blankfein as an investor and being Bill and Hillary Clinton's son-in-law, Marc Mezvinsky (and two former colleagues from Goldman Sachs who manage Eaglevale Partners hedge fund) told investors in a letter last February they had been "incorrect" on Greece, generating staggering losses for the firm's main Eaglevale Hellenic Opportunity, a/k/a the "Greek recovery" fund during most of its life. By 'incorrect' the Clinton heir apparent meant the $25 million Eaglevale Greek fund had lost a stunning 48% in 2014.

Which is not to say the larger fund it was part of is doing any better: as of last February, Eaglevale had spent 27 of its 34 months in operation below its high-water mark. We are confident that 13 months later the numbers are 40 out of 47, respectively.

 

As a reminder, 2013, Institutional Investor proclaimed Mezvinsky "a hedge fund rising star"...

In late 2011, Marc Mezvinsky co-founded New York-based, macro-focused hedge fund firm Eaglevale Partners with Bennett Grau and Mark Mallon, two Goldman Sachs Group proprietary traders whom he'd gotten to know when they all worked at the bank. Best known as the husband of Chelsea Clinton, Mezvinsky, 35, who has a BA in religious studies and philosophy from Stanford University and an MA in politics, philosophy and economics from the University of Oxford, has been quietly building his finance career. Before launching his own firm, the longtime Clinton family friend was a partner and global macro portfolio manager at New York- and Rio de Janeiro-based investment house 3G Capital. Eaglevale manages more than $400 million.

Alas, he was anything but, and instead of having a real grasp of macroeconomic events, or how to - you know - hedge, he decided to dump millions in Greece just before the country entered a death spiral that culminated with its third bailout, capital controls, insolvent banks and a terminally crippled economy.

Meanwhile, things went from terrible to abysmal for both the clueless hedge fund manager and his LPs, and as the NYT reports, Hillary Clinton's son-in-law is finally shutting down the Greece-focused fund, after losing nearly 90% of its value.  Investors were told last month that Eaglevale Hellenic Opportunity would finally be put out of its misery and would shutter.

The closure comes as the worst possible time: we are confident that Donald Trump will be quick to work it into his political attack routine.

Mr. Chelsea Clinton and his partners began raising money in 2011 from investors for the firm's flagship fund. Since then, that portfolio has posted uneven performance. A Stanford University graduate, Mr. Mezvinsky worked at Goldman for eight years before leaving to join a private equity firm. He left that job to form Eaglevale with two longtime Goldman partners, Bennett Grau and Mark Mallon. The hedge fund firm is named after a bridge in Central Park.

As noted above, some of the firm's earliest investors were Goldman partners, including Lloyd C. Blankfein, Goldman's chief executive officer, who let Eaglevale use his name in marketing the flagship fund. Ironically this is in addition to the hundreds of thousands of dollars that Goldman paid to Marc's mother-in-law. One almost wonders who "benefits" Goldman was seeking to get out of this particular relationship.

But on a less sarcastic note, we agree with the NYT that it is not at all clear why Eaglevale waited until this year to close the Hellenic fund, which already had lost about 40% of its value by early last year.

Perhaps it was just hope that the Greek people would simply pick up and rebuild the devastated economy from scratch, ideally without getting paid (the word slavery comes to mind), thereby miraculously rescuing his investment. In letters to investors in 2014, Mezvinsky and his partners expressed confidence that Greece would soon be on the path to a "sustainable recovery." But by the end of that year, Eaglevale's leaders began to acknowledge that their perspective on the situation in Greece may have been wrong. The fund had earlier stopped taking in new money.

We will conclude by stealing the NYT's tongue in cheek humor:

The one silver lining for the fund's investors from all of this is that they will have a somewhat larger tax loss on investments to claim next year.

True: it's all funny if one assumes that none of the people who were invested in Mezvinsky's pet fund actually needed the cash (we doubt Blankfein will lose sleep over a few million). For all those others who actually did, the joke's on them.

Gold Price Closed at $1263.90 Down $1.70 or -0.13%

Posted: 10 May 2016 06:44 PM PDT


10-May-16PriceChange% Change
Gold Price, $/oz1,263.90-1.70-0.13%
Silver Price, $/oz17.080.010.03%
Gold/Silver Ratio74.020-0.121-0.16%
Silver/Gold Ratio0.01350.00000.16%
Platinum1,048.502.800.27%
Palladium592.458.101.39%
S&P 5002,084.3925.701.25%
Dow1,792,835.00222.440.01%
Dow in GOLD $s29,322.8343.020.15%
Dow in GOLD oz1,418.492.080.15%
Dow in SILVER oz104,997.66-17.72-0.02%
US Dollar Index94.260.150.16%

There is dumb, then there is government dumb, & lower than that is central bank dumb. Now when you combine government dumb with central bank dumb and add a debt bubble, why, Law! Ain't no TELLING how much havoc you can wreak, how many families destroy, even lay whole countries low.

The Chinese government, in a land literally smothering under an avalanche, a Rocky Mountain, a Himalaya of debt, announced today it would make available -- MORE debt. China's cabinet approved more bank lending, greater tax rebates, and support for export credits.

Government dumb plus central bank dumb equals cosmically dumb. At a time when China needs more than anything an erasing of debt, a jubilee of debt, & a colossal writing down of mal-investments spawned by the easy borrowing debt bubble, the Chinese government is doing just the opposite. 

Suppose you find a man passed out nearly dead in the street. He has a tourniquet on his arm, and on the ground there lies a hypodermic needle. His arm is covered with needle tracks. "Oh," you conclude, "he has overdosed on heroin. Quick! Get more heroin into him. That'll save his life." 

Laugh if you like, but that is PRECISELY what the Chinese government is doing to the economy. I reckon I might imagine something catastrophic, but I'd have to think on it a couple of weeks.

The morons playing stock market casinos around the world could care less that an economic tidal wave is speeding toward them. "The Chinese are supplying new chips! Deal me in, too!" No cure for debt-driven greed but a back-lashing with a cat o' nine tails in bankruptcy. 

Thus stocks rose today in a drunken, frenzied drive to get closer to the bar. Dow rose 222.44 (1.26%) to 17,928.35. S&P added 25.7 (1.25%) to 2,084.39. 

Bear market rallies are sudden, sharp, and short. Read that again. Fix it in your mind, lest you, too, become a victim of Wall Street. 

THE US DOLLAR INDEX inched up a little more, 15 basis points (0.15%) to 94.26. Today carried it through the 20 day moving average (94.11). Looking only at the falling trading channel that has imprisoned the dollar index since mid-March, the dollar index has traded back & forth to the lower and upper boundaries of that range. Today's trading brought it again to the upper boundary. Time to fish or cut bait: dollar index must break through that upper boundary line, or prove itself a fraud and mountebank. Behold, http://schrts.co/OkJ5UT Most likely it will keep rising. If it doesn't, if it turns back for three days, then y'all can be pretty certain the central banking criminals have made a deal to depreciate the dollar against the yen & euro. 

Last few days the Japanese central bank criminals have been rattling their samurais about how they have plenty of stimulus measures left. In other words, they were jawboning the yen down, precisely when it is already weak, having broken out of a rising wedge. Does that gainsay my suspicion they may have made a deal to let the yen rise against the dollar? Nope. They would be stupid Nice Government Men indeed if they barged into a market & tried to manipulate their whole move at once. Up a little, down a little, feed out more line to the investor bass to hook 'em and reel 'em in. Yen today lost 0.83% to 91.51. Chart's here, http://schrts.co/UuqBFa Technically, the yean appears to have broken down from that rising wedge. Well, we will see. 

Euro fell 0.9% to $1.1371 today, bouncing down from the top trading range boundary. http://schrts.co/HcRUv0 

Silver & gold disagreed today, but so lethargically you needed to take their pulse to see if they were alive. Silver added -- why bother reporting it? -- one half cent -- to 1707.5¢. Gold backed up $1.70 to $1,263.90. All this took place within very narrow trading ranges. 

Silver & gold have both lost upward momentum, and spent today in futile wheel-spinning. Does nothing but cover your car in mud. Both touched their 20 day moving averages, both look set to drop more. 
As I said yesterday, the "Short Correction" outcome would last about a week and reach $1,245 and 1600¢. The "Long Correction Outcome" would last two weeks or more and carry to $1,225 & 1540¢. 
It also appeareth here late in the day that for reasons not clear to me, my yesterday's commentary, that is, the one for 9 May 2016, did not go out. Why? Ask a computer. Now I'll go to my grave wondering what I said. 

Wait, I remember this. By the grace of God, my surgery went well. I have only taken one pain pill so far, & that on Saturday. This becomes more amazing when I recall that while my foot was deadened but I was very much awake, the surgeon did 1-1/4 hours worth of vigorous pushing, cutting, grinding of bone, drilling, & finally, sticking a tablespoon into my foot. Susan was watching & took pictures, which I am not eager to view. 

I am left with a half-inch of wire sticking out of my toe, which leaves me pretty chary of walking or getting near anybody or anything. Doesn't hurt, but the faintest touch focuses all my attention on that spot. I'll be walking on my heel for six weeks, and won't get rid of that wire until week 4. The yoke of immobility will gall my stubborn neck. 

Thank you for your prayers. God is graciously answering them.


Aurum et argentum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

© 2016, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission. To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 18 ounces of silver.  US $ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.

Extreme up-close video of tornado near Wray, CO!

Posted: 10 May 2016 06:00 PM PDT

NEW VIDEO: Extreme up-close footage of tornado just north of Wray, CO earlier today! Uploading 360 video from inside the outer circulation next. More to come! The Financial Armageddon Economic Collapse Blog tracks trends and forecasts , futurists , visionaries , free investigative...

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ALERT -- Police Now Arresting YouTubers for "Offensive" Videos

Posted: 10 May 2016 05:30 PM PDT

UK police arrested a man for making a joke YouTube video about his girlfriend's pet dog being a Nazi. The Financial Armageddon Economic Collapse Blog tracks trends and forecasts , futurists , visionaries , free investigative journalists , researchers , Whistelblowers , truthers and many more

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The Gold Bull Is Back

Posted: 10 May 2016 05:10 PM PDT

Matterhorn AM

Gerald Celente -- Global Equity Markets Sinking, Gold Rising. Trend Or Fad?

Posted: 10 May 2016 05:00 PM PDT

Gerald Celente - "TREND ALERT: Global Equity Markets Sinking, Gold Rising. Trend Or Fad?" - (5/4/16) The latest Trend Alert is released, Shell Oil profits plunged 83% this quarter when compared with a year earlier & China's central bank continues to pump money into their failing...

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Donald Trump Fears Elite Planning "JFK Style Assassination"

Posted: 10 May 2016 04:00 PM PDT

Donald Trump Fears Elite Planning "JFK Style Assassination" because he aims to bring out truth. The Financial Armageddon Economic Collapse Blog tracks trends and forecasts , futurists , visionaries , free investigative journalists , researchers , Whistelblowers , truthers and many more

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Death of Petrodollar

Posted: 10 May 2016 03:30 PM PDT

Economic collapse and financial crisis is rising any moment. Getting informed about collapse and crisis may earn you, or prevent to lose money. Do you want to be informed with Max Keiser, Alex Jones, Gerald Celente, Peter Schiff, Marc Faber, Ron Paul,Jim Willie, Steve Quayle, V Economist, and many...

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Fresh Gold Buy Signal Now

Posted: 10 May 2016 03:10 PM PDT

Graceland Update

Final Hour 4 of 5 Biblical Prophecy current events final hour wake up

Posted: 10 May 2016 02:30 PM PDT

Final Hour 4 of 5 Biblical Prophecy current events final hour wake up The Financial Armageddon Economic Collapse Blog tracks trends and forecasts , futurists , visionaries , free investigative journalists , researchers , Whistelblowers , truthers and many more

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Demolishing Three Common Arguments Against Gold

Posted: 10 May 2016 01:39 PM PDT

This post Demolishing Three Common Arguments Against Gold appeared first on Daily Reckoning.

Recent history has been a long and volatile ride for gold investors. Starting from a low of about $250 per ounce in mid-1999, gold staged a spectacular rally of over 600%, to about $1,900 per ounce, by August 2011. Unfortunately, that rally looked increasingly unstable toward the end.

Gold was about $1,400 per ounce as late as January 2011. Almost $500 per ounce of the overall rally occurred in just the last seven months before the peak. That kind of hyperbolic growth is almost always unsustainable.

Sure enough, gold fell sharply from that peak to below $1,100 per ounce by July 2015. It still shows a gain of about 350% over 15 years. But gold's lost nearly 40% over the past four years. Those who invested during the 2011 rally are underwater, and many have given up on gold in disgust. For longtime observers of gold markets, sentiment has been the worst they've ever seen.

Yet it's in times of extreme bearish sentiment that outstanding investments can be found — if you know how and where to look. There's already been a change in the winds for gold so far this year.

And using complex dynamic systems analysis, a trusted colleague of mine and I have developed a new thesis and strategy for profiting in the gold market.

The takeaway? Do not buy another ounce of gold until you read my new free letter.

Today, I show you three main arguments mainstream economists make against gold… and why they're dead wrong.

I want to refute some of the more common arguments against gold. Mainstream economists make them all the time.

Because I write about gold and talk about it in TV interviews, I'm constantly hearing these anti-gold arguments. The time has come to shoot them down once and for all.

What are some of the main arguments against gold? The first one you may have heard many times. "Experts" say there’s not enough gold to support a global financial system. Gold can't support all the world's paper money, its assets and liabilities, its expanded balance sheets of all the banks and the financial institutions in the world.

They say there’s not enough gold to support that money supply, that the money supply is too large. That argument is complete nonsense. It's true that there’s a limited quantity of gold. But more importantly, there’s always enough gold to support the financial system. But it's also important to set its price correctly.

It is true that at today’s price of about $1,250 an ounce, if you had to scale down the money supply to equal the physical gold times 1,250, that would be a great reduction of the money supply. That would indeed lead to deflation. But to avoid that, all we have to do is increase the gold price. In other words, take the amount of existing gold, place it at, say, $10,000 dollars an ounce, and there’s plenty of gold to support the money supply.

In other words, a certain amount of gold can always support any amount of money supply if its price is set properly. There can be a debate about the proper gold price, but there’s no real debate that we have enough gold to support the monetary system. Someone who says there’s not enough gold hasn’t thought about the problem because there’s always enough gold. You just need to get the price right. I’ve done that calculation and it’s fairly simple. It’s not complicated mathematics.

Just take the amount of money supply in the world, the amount of physical gold in the world, divide one by the other, and there's the gold price.

You do have to make some assumptions, however. For example, do you want the money supply backed 100% by gold, or is 40% sufficient? Or maybe 20%? Those are legitimate policy issues that can be debated. I’ve done the calculations for all of them. I assumed 40% gold backing. Some economists say it should be higher, but I think 40% is reasonable.

That number is $10,000 an ounce. In other words, the amount of money supplied given the amount of gold if you value the gold at 10,000 dollars an ounce is enough to back up 40% of the money supply. That is a substantial gold backing.

To go from today's price of about $1,250 to $10,000 would be a 700% devaluation of the dollar. I'll admit that sounds extreme.

More likely, the Fed could do a 80% devaluation to start and announce that gold will be $5,000 per ounce. Then, it could do a second devaluation from $5,000 to $10,000 per ounce.

But if you want to back up 100% of the money supply, that number is $50,000 an ounce. I’m not predicting $50,000 gold. But I am forecasting $10,000 gold, a significant increase from where we are today. But again, it's important to realize that there’s always enough gold to meet the needs of the financial system. You just need to get the price right.

Regardless, my research has led me to one conclusion — the coming financial crisis will lead to the collapse of the international monetary system. When I say that, I specifically mean a collapse in confidence in paper currencies around the world. It's not just the death of the dollar… or the demise of the euro… it's a collapse in confidence of all paper currencies.

In that case, central banks around the world could turn to gold to restore confidence in the international monetary system. No central banker would ever willingly choose to go back on a gold standard.

But in a scenario where there's a total loss in confidence, they'll likely have to go back to a gold standard.

The second argument raised against gold is that it cannot support the growth of world trade and commerce because it doesn’t grow fast enough. The world's mining output is about 1.6% of total gold stocks. World growth is roughly 3–4% a year. It varies, but let’s assume 3–4%.

Critics say if world growth is about 3–4% a year and gold is only growing at 1.6%, then gold is not growing fast enough to support world trade. A gold standard therefore gives the system a deflationary bias. But that’s nonsense, because mining output has nothing to do with the ability of central banks to expand the gold supply.

The reason is that official gold, the gold owned by central banks and finance ministries is about 35,000 tons. Total gold, including privately held gold, is about 180,000 tons. That’s 145,000 tons of private gold outside the official gold supply.

If any central bank wants to expand the money supply, all it has to do is print money and buy some of the private gold. Central banks are not constrained by mining output. They don’t have to wait for the miners to dig up gold if they want to expand the money supply. They simply have to buy some private gold through dealers in the marketplace.

To argue that gold supplies don't grow enough to support trade is an argument that sounds true on a superficial level. But when you analyze it further you realize that’s nonsense. That's because the gold supply added by mining is irrelevant since central banks can just buy private gold.

The third argument you hear is that gold has no yield. It's true, but gold isn't supposed to have a yield. Gold is money. I was on Fox Business with Maria Bartiromo recently. We had a discussion in the live interview when the issue came up. I said, “Maria, pull out a dollar bill, hold it up in front of you and look at it. Does it have a yield? No, of course it has no yield, money has no yield.”

If you want yield, you have to take risk. You can put your money in the bank and get a little bit of yield — maybe half a percent. Probably not even that. But it’s not money anymore. When you put it in the bank, it’s not money. It’s a bank deposit. That’s an unsecured liability in an occasionally insolvent commercial bank.

You can also buy stocks, bonds, real estate, and many other things with your money. But when you do, it’s not money anymore. It’s some other asset, and they involve varying degrees of risk. The point simply is that if you want yield, you have to take risk. Physical gold doesn't offer an official yield, but it doesn't carry risk. It's simply a way of preserving wealth.

I believe the primary way every investor should play the rise in gold is to own the physical metal directly. In fact, I always say that at least 10% of your investment portfolio should be devoted to physical gold — bars, coins and the like.

But given the current market conditions, I also believe that right now is the perfect time to profit from gold in other ways as gold moves towards the $10,000 level. I'm confident that those who understand the forces propelling gold's big move stand to make fortunes.

It may go to $2,000… $5,000… then $10,000. But $10,000 per ounce is where things are going to have to end up, because nothing else will solve the world's problems. This is the backdrop that sets the gold market up for a bull market like we've never seen.

And it'll create an especially attractive opportunity for alert investors.

Regards,

Jim Rickards
for The Daily Reckoning

P.S. What's the latest on gold, oil, the Fed, or the stock market? What's China going to do next? You'll find the answers in the free daily email edition of The Daily Reckoning. It provides an independent, penetrating and irreverent perspective on the worlds of finance and politics. And most importantly, how they fit together. Click here now to sign up for FREE.

The post Demolishing Three Common Arguments Against Gold appeared first on Daily Reckoning.

Inflationist Gold Bugs Have Driven the Rally

Posted: 10 May 2016 01:15 PM PDT

[edit] The post began as a simple view of the inflationary dynamics in play within the precious metals market but as sometimes happens it, err… expanded.  Please excuse the wordiness.  But I would rather be wordy and try to make points backed in facts and data than backed only by my biased ego. Not that I have proof (re: the title), but I do have some charts to help make the point that people who bought gold and gold stocks due to inflation fears have been driving the gold sector higher since March.

Alex Jones Show (VIDEO Commercial Free) Tuesday 5/10/16: Michael Snyder: The Economic Collapse

Posted: 10 May 2016 01:06 PM PDT

-- Date: May 10, 2016 -- Today on The Alex Jones Show On this Tuesday, May 10 edition of the Alex Jones Show, we cover rock star Billy Corgan's revelations about threats to free speech, media manipulation, cult programming and more. We also cover a safe space cry-baby upset by the term "Americans,"...

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Commander Ashtar, A Message To All Humans, Galactic Federation

Posted: 10 May 2016 01:00 PM PDT

Commander Ashtar, A Message To All Humans, Galactic Federation March 30, 2016 The Financial Armageddon Economic Collapse Blog tracks trends and forecasts , futurists , visionaries , free investigative journalists , researchers , Whistelblowers , truthers and many more

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We’re In the Initial Stages of a Protracted Bear Market

Posted: 10 May 2016 12:38 PM PDT

This post We’re In the Initial Stages of a Protracted Bear Market appeared first on Daily Reckoning.

Don't let a relatively tame week in the S&P 500 engender complacency. Perhaps it was not obvious, yet the trading week provided important confirmation for the incipient "Risk Off" dynamic thesis. Indeed, the global bear seemed to roar back to life. Stocks were lower, financial stocks were under heavy selling pressure, and some commodities reversed sharply lower, while safe haven bonds were in high demand. It's worth noting that financial stocks lagged during the recent global risk market rally and now lead on the downside.

Japan's Nikkei equities index dropped 3.4% this week, boosting its two-week drop to 8.3% (down 15.4% y-t-d). The Nikkei closed the week at 16,107. Keep in mind that the Nikkei traded at about 20,000 this past December (and about 39,000 in December 1989), and is now only about 1,000 points off February lows. Japanese financial shares trade even worse than the major indices. Japan's Topix Bank Stock Index sank 4.6%, with a two-week decline of 12.8% (down 32.5% y-t-d). The Topix Bank Stock index traded at 250 last summer and closed Friday at 140.

Chinese stocks (Shanghai Comp) declined another 0.9%, increasing 2016 losses to 17.7%. Hong Kong's Hang Seng Financial Index fell 5.0%, with a two-week decline of 7.6%. The Singapore Straits Times equities index lost 7.1% over two weeks, with financial share weakness behind 10 straight losing sessions.

European bank stocks (STOXX) dropped 5.0% this week, increasing y-t-d losses to 22.2%. Italian banks were hammered 9.0%, boosting two-week declines to 10.8%. Italian bank stocks have lost 35% of their value already in 2016.

The ongoing bear market in Europe equities gained momentum this week, an especially notable development considering the extraordinary efforts of "whatever it takes" monetary stimulus. Germany's DAX declined 1.7%, increasing y-t-d losses to 8.1%. Notably, Deutsche Bank sank 11.6% this week, increasing y-t-d losses to 30%. Major equities indices dropped 2.9% in France, 4.1% in Italy and 3.6% in Spain. European debt markets this week saw a notable widening of periphery sovereign spreads. Portuguese 10-year spreads widened 29 bps versus German bunds, Spanish spreads widened 13 bps and Italian spreads gained 14 bps.

U.S. stocks performed relatively well, or at least the major indices. The S&P 500 slipped only 0.4%, although the broader market was notably weaker. The small cap Russell 2000 dropped 1.4%. Technology stocks remained under the pressure of a deflating tech Bubble, with the Morgan Stanley High Tech (MSH) index dropping 1.7% (down 5.8%). The biotechs (BTK) were hammered 5.1%, increasing 2016 losses to 23.2%.

Bearish action continued to envelope the financial sector. The Banks (BKX) dropped 3.2%, boosting 2016 losses to 8.4%. The broker/dealers (XBD) sank 3.5%, increasing two-week losses to 8.8% (down 12.2%). Leading on the downside, Citigroup dropped a notable 4.6% this week (down 14.3%), with Bank of America down 3.4% (16.3%), JPMorgan 2.9% (6.8%), and Goldman Sachs 3.3% (11.9%). Consistent with the global trend, U.S. financials lagged during the rally and have now reversed sharply lower.

As I have written repeatedly, I believe the global Bubble has been pierced. My view is that the world is in the initial stages of what will be a protracted bear market (at best), interrupted sporadically by policy-induced short squeezes, bouts of speculative excess and insuppressible bullishness.

May 6 – Bloomberg (Andrea Wong and Oliver Renick): "Worries about the outlook for the U.S., Europe and China, as well as mixed policy signals from central bankers around the world, have all contributed to what UBS Group AG Chief Executive Officer Sergio Ermotti called a 'paralyzing volatility' that's scaring away clients and caused industry-wide trading revenue to tumble to the lowest since 2009."

The global Bubble succumbed first at the periphery, notably with last year's pronounced weakness in EM currencies, equities and debt markets. And it was EM – "at the margin" of global finance – that cashed in over recent months from extreme monetary policy measures. Chinese adoption of "whatever it takes" – a stable currency peg and a Trillion ($US) of Q1 Credit growth in concert with global QE and negative rates – spurred a major reversal of bearish EM bets along with newfound optimism. Amazingly, "money" was again flowing into EM. Was…

From Bloomberg (Camila Russo and Manisha Jha): "Worldwide stock ETFs lost $12.6 billion in the four days through May 5, wiping out more than six weeks of inflows, as the MSCI All-Country World Index capped its worst week in three months."

I believe this week marked a key Inflection Point for EM, with major ramifications for global markets and economies. With global "risk on" rapidly transitioning to "Risk Off," developing markets – currencies, stocks and bonds – this week suffered the brunt of newfound risk aversion. The MSCI Emerging Market ETF (EEM) sank 4.7% this week.

A Bloomberg headline: "Emerging Markets Head for Worst Week Since January…" Political turmoil saw Turkish stocks (previously a big "risk on" beneficiary) hammered 8.2%. Wednesday trading saw the Turkish lira sink 3.9% versus the dollar, "the most since 2008."

The Mexican peso fell a brutal 4.0% this week to the low since early March. Those levered in higher-yielding Mexican (or other EM) debt suffered a rough week. Tuesday trading saw the peso sink 2.5%, "its biggest drop since November 2011." Brazil's real dropped 1.9%, the "worst week since November." Brazilian stocks sank 4.1%.  The Colombian peso fell 3.8%.

It was a global phenomenon. The South African rand sank 4.6%, as debt worries return. The Russian ruble declined 2.2%, the "worst week since February." Russian stocks dropped 2.6%. In emerging Asia, the Korean won declined 2.7%, the Malaysian ringgit fell 2.6%, the Indonesia rupiah declined 1.3% and the Singapore dollar fell 1.3%.

May 5 – Bloomberg (Constantine Courcoulas): "Turkish bonds retreated the most among major emerging markets and credit risk climbed as investors assessed the economic cost of a political showdown that prompted the prime minister to say he's stepping down. The yield on the five-year government note jumped 25 bps to 9.73%, the biggest daily increase since January… The cost of insuring Turkish debt against default for five years rose for a fifth day, increasing seven basis points to 267 bps…"

It's worth a brief return to a Fitch warning from September 2014: "Most of the recent increase in Turkey’s external debt has been driven by bank borrowing, Fitch Ratings says. The rapid rise in banks’ foreign liabilities, particularly at the short end, leaves them more vulnerable to an extreme stress involving an abrupt and prolonged market shutdown. The increase in external debt was one of the factors leading to the downgrade of Turkey’s three largest domestic privately owned banks to ‘BBB-‘… Turkish banks’ foreign borrowings increased almost threefold, to USD164bn, between end-2008 and end-1H14, rising to 38% of the country’s total external debt from 20%."

It's been a few months since EM debt issues garnered market attention. Typically, so long as "money" is flowing in, EM looks good. Over recent months, "money" has indeed been flowing – though EM fundamentals remained ominous. If, as I expect, outflows gain momentum the EM backdrop could turn problematic in a hurry.

Analysts took a respite from contemplating Trillions of EM external debt, much of it having accumulated since the '08 Crisis – and too much of it denominated in dollars and other foreign currencies. Curiously, EM currencies this week under the most selling pressure were in many cases economies on the hook to Creditors for large amounts of foreign-denominated debt. It's worth recalling that EM corporate debt is up more than three-fold since 2008 to $2.6 TN (from IIF).

EM banks absolutely ballooned in the post-crisis monetary free-for-all, with considerable borrowings in dollars and foreign currencies. Earlier in the year I believed that the markets were becoming increasingly apprehensive with global inter-bank liabilities. When EM currencies and global bank shares find themselves simultaneously under pressure, as they were this week, one has to ponder the possibility that these fears are reemerging.

Yet is wasn't only EM that this week supported the "Risk Off" thesis. And I'm not so sure market confidence in U.S. high-yield is much deeper than that of EM debt. A bout of de-risking/de-leveraging would have major ramification across global financial markets.

May 5 – Bloomberg (Sridhar Natarajan): "The largest exchange-traded fund that buys junk bonds is flashing a potential warning sign that a three-month rally in the $1.4 trillion market is losing steam. BlackRock Inc.'s iShares iBoxx High Yield Corporate Bond ETF has seen 27.8 million shares redeemed, or about $2.6 billion, in the last four days… Short interest in the fund climbed more than 80% since mid-April…"

May 6 – Financial Times (Ben Bennett, Legal & General Investment Management): "For some, China represents a positive scenario of structural reforms returning the country to its position as the engine of world growth. Not only do we think this is unlikely, we actually believe China poses a systemic risk of historic proportions. It is now clear that China is not smoothly passing its growth baton from exports and investment to the service sector… It is hard to exaggerate the magnitude of the Chinese debt bubble. According to the Bank for International Settlements, debt to GDP has increased by around 100% since 2008, which compares with about 40% in the US leading up to the subprime meltdown, 60% in Japan prior to its collapse in 1997 and is even more than the credit booms of Greece, Portugal, Spain and Italy in the run up to the euro crisis. The only similar credit bubble in recent history was that in Thailand before the Asia crisis. And if an economy the size of China's goes through what Thailand went through in 1997, the world will be a very ugly place indeed."

May 6 – Reuters (Manolo Serapio Jr and Ruby Lian): "Chinese commodities prices spiraled lower on Friday, with steel futures suffering their worst week since 2009, as more money flowed out of markets whose surge two weeks ago unnerved global investors and forced regulators to step in to restore calm. Indicating how authorities may now be alarmed after a collapse in volumes and prices, the Dalian Commodity Exchange on Friday said it will cut some trading fees on contracts such as iron ore and coking coal. The commodities slide spilled over into stocks, with the Shanghai Composite Index ending down 2.8%, its worst day since February, as commodity producers fell."

There were more Credit rumblings this week in China, along with serious cracks in the Chinese commodities Bubble. I continue to believe that the unfolding Chinese Credit crisis is the root cause of dysfunctional global financial markets. Waning confidence in Chinese finance, policymaking and economic structure will now (again) weigh on EM. The weakening dollar and attendant commodities rally had recently helped underpin the bullish EM recovery story. This week it appeared that markets began coming to grips with the reality that it's going to take a lot more than a weaker dollar to support such highly indebted and maladjusted EM economies (and financial sectors) – as confidence in the world of finance and the global economy wane.

Regards,

Doug Noland
for Credit Bubble Bulletin

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The post We’re In the Initial Stages of a Protracted Bear Market appeared first on Daily Reckoning.

TF Metals Report: Assessing the latest bank participation report

Posted: 10 May 2016 10:58 AM PDT

1:58a ET Tuesday, May 10, 2016

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Conscientious as ever, the TF Metal's Report's Turd Ferguson today reviews the monthly Bank Participation Report of the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission about positioning in the U.S. gold futures market, acknowledging that the report is likely full of deceptions if not outright lies but adding that it may have some value through historical comparison.

Your secretary/treasurer would add that in addition to the proven unreliability of the data as noted by Ferguson, the reporting banks may have offsetting and unreported positions in other markets and the positions reported to the CFTC may not even be the banks' own but effectively central bank positions and thus backed by infinite money or credit, the central bsnks' primary mechanism of destroying markets, a mechanism that cannot be examined by mainstream financial journalism or mainstream market commentary.

Indeed, for all anyone outside central banking knows today, central bank policy now may be to devalue currencies by pushing gold upward instead of downward as usual, and so an ever-enlarging short position in gold futures may be required by central banks to keep their revaluation of gold under control. In any case, no one who fails to take central bank trading into account knows anything worth knowing about the gold market. The gold market is first of all governments and central banks.

Ferguson's analysis is headlined "Assessing the Latest Bank Participation Report" and it's posted at the TF Metals Report here:

http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/blog/7618/assessing-latest-bank-participat...

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org



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The ET & Nazi Secret Space Program -- William Tompkins

Posted: 10 May 2016 10:31 AM PDT

Jeff Rense & William Tompkins - The ET & Nazi Secret Space Program Clip from May 04, 2016 - guest William Tompkins on the Jeff Rense Program. The Financial Armageddon Economic Collapse Blog tracks trends and forecasts , futurists , visionaries , free investigative...

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LCMI Drops for 4th Consecutive Month

Posted: 10 May 2016 08:44 AM PDT

This post LCMI Drops for 4th Consecutive Month appeared first on Daily Reckoning.

And now… today's Pfennig for your thoughts…

Good day, and a Tom terrific Tuesday to you!

Well, the dollar certainly seems to have righted the listing ship that was so evident a couple of weeks ago. Last Monday, the Dollar Index reached a low for the last 12 months, and since then, the dollar has rebounded. The bounce has been akin to a superball bounce! Is it a “dead cat bounce”? (no cats were hurt, it’s just a markets saying). Maybe, because if there was the so-called Shanghai Accord, it did not call for the dollar to return to its strong trend!

I believe it’s just one of those things that happens when an asset like the dollar, begins to fade within its strong trend. You have these rallies that look like the fading is over, and then something comes along and puts the asset right back on rocky terrain. So, I guess we have to now wait for that “something” to come along.

I say that, because I see all the signs that I saw in 2001, when I wrote the white paper, “The Decline of the dollar”. Not to be confused with the book that friend, Addison Wiggin, wrote (that I did the forward for!) few years later, titled: The Demise of the Dollar.

Well, the euro wasn’t able to hold 1.14 yesterday, and the news coming out of Greece was actually pretty good,  for their debt situation that is, not for the pensioners but then, they’ve had it pretty good for a long time now. So, let’s go through this…

Greek lawmakers passed pension and tax reforms on Monday. Yes, these are unpopular with the Greek citizens, but it’s what happens when you live high on the hog without funding for so long. I’m not knocking the Greek people, they took what the government was giving them. What I’m really trying to get across is that the government should have known better, but thought that debt didn’t matter, right? And now, as my mom used to say, they made their bed, now they have to lay in it! And that means finding a way to keep the economy afloat, which requires cuts in government spending, and where is the fat on the Greek debt hog? That’s where they went first. But this news from Greece should help them with their requests to restructure their debt that’s on the Eurozone Finance Minister’s table right now.

It’s not unlike the uneasy feeling everyone here in the U.S. is going to get when the U.S. government realizes they can’t continue to pay for the 10,000 baby boomers that retire every day for the next 15 years and begin to draw on Medicare, and Social Security. But that’s nothing to worry about now, right? NOT! This is the time to deal with this! Before it gets unbearable and unsustainable, which it may already be!

The price of oil has dropped almost $2 since yesterday morning, and the price of gold lost $24 yesterday, but is up $4 this morning in early trading. Ed Steer likes to call days like yesterday, when gold got whacked by $24, days “Da Boyz Are Back In Town Again” which reminds me of the song by Thin Lizzy. But seriously, Chuck, can you stick to the subject here?  Alright, but I bet everyone wanted to hear about the time I got to go backstage and meet Thin Lizzy, when they opened for Queen.  So, the low tick in gold trading came in the after-markets trading, so “Da Boyz” as Ed calls them, had to work overtime to get gold where they wanted it yesterday.

I read recently that gold imports by China have fallen off their strong pace of the past decade. Hmmm…  I have to wonder if that’s China telling us that to throw the markets off the scent of their gold imports. Or if that’s really true. For if it’s true, it means the physical demand for gold is down, and I’m not seeing that, but then again I haven’t been around enough to ask our metals guru, Tim Smith, if he’s seeing a decline in physical demand.

The drop in the price of oil sure didn’t put the kyboshes on a Russian ruble rally. I found this to be interesting, in that the ruble has been the proxy for the petrol currencies’ reactions to the price gyrations of oil. I don’t get what happened to the price of oil yesterday. I read that nearly 1 billion barrels of oil per day are being lost due to the fires in Alberta, Canada. That cuts Canada’s oil production in half! Now, in a land where price discovery is all important, shouldn’t that many barrels of oil per day being lost, drop supply and drive the price of oil higher? Yes, it should, but, instead, we saw the price of oil drop $2 overnight. Huh?

None of this whole scenario is good for Canada though. Homes, structures, lives lost, and then add in revenue for the country, and you have a real problem. I read where 2,400 structures have been destroyed in the fires. That’s really sad, for the people there. But I have no control over what goes on there, so I have to stick to talking about what effects it could have on the Canadian dollar/loonie. The loonie so far, has been resilient in the face of the destruction from these fires, but for how long can it remain resilient? That’s the $64 question this morning.

Another thing weighing on the loonie right now, is the latest CAPEX report from Canada. CAPEX is Capital Expenditures, the lifeblood of any economy. And CPEX spending is down again this year, following a down year in 2015. Declining investment in energy equipment is the biggest culprit here. I’ve long told you all how important CAPEX spending is for an economy. And here in the U.S. our CAPEX spending is just plain awful, with companies opting to spend their money on stock buybacks instead of new equipment, etc. Just another reason I’m not of the opinion that the dollar can continue being strong.

The Big Boss, Frank Trotter, sent me a note yesterday that he pulled from an article in Barron’s that highlighted Australia.  Interesting don’t you think, given that just a couple of weeks ago, our Currency of the Month was the Australian dollar? Well, none of that helped the Aussie dollar (A$) wrap a tourniquet around the bleeding that was caused by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) cutting rates last week, when not many people, including Chuck, thought they wouldn’t move rates. The Barron’s article was not unlike the Currency of the Month piece we did last month.

The New Zealand dollar/kiwi is trading in sympathy with the A$, which means it’s getting sold too. UGH! The Chinese renminbi was allowed to appreciate in the fixing overnight, but the move was so small, it hardly registered on my currency movement screen! And with the renminbi seeing appreciation, the Indian rupee, and Singapore dollar were also able to carve out some gains this morning. But all the moves, except in Russian rubles, in the currencies have been small in size.

Well, did you hear about what happened in Brazil with the Senate reviewing the impeachment process? A rouge Senator decided that he would throw a spanner in the works, and cried out that there were procedural errors in the impeachment process, which for a short time had the markets thinking that the impeachment of President Dilma Rousseff was going to have to start all over again, and that took the real from 3.52 to 3.67, but soon the Senate majority squashed the rouge Senator’s claims, and the impeachment process was back on track to have a vote tomorrow, and the real rallied back to 3.52 (remember the real is a European priced currency, so as the price goes lower, it returns greater value in dollars). The rouge Senator, proved to be a tempest in a teacup for Brazil and the real.

Soccer Hall of Famer, Ty Keough, sent me a note yesterday with some quotes from P.J. O’Rourke, the political satirist, about negative interest rates. And this one hits the nail on the head as far as I’m concerned.

In a sane world, government would quit trying to stimulate the economy. Economies are stimulated by people, not political policies. Government is a henhouse, not a hen. The barn doesn’t lay the eggs, the chickens do.

Government could start by cleaning out the barn. Shovel up all the government economic stimulus political policies and dump them on the politicians.

What government should be doing is protecting its citizens, defending individual liberties, guarding property rights, providing rule of law, and keeping taxes, regulatory burdens, and trade barriers low.

If that – and only that – were what governments were doing, the free market would take care of the rest.

Wish I had said it first! But at least someone said it, so I can reprint it! HA! German Industrial Production for March did NOT meet expectations, but it wasn’t bad enough to put the kyboshes on a positive first quarter for Industrial Production in Germany. And that thought is what has the euro underpinned right now. Yes, it wasn’t able to hold 1.14 yesterday, but the single unit is still within spittin’ distance of 1.14, and it’s a far cry from parity to the dollar!

Japanese yen lost another whole figure in overnight trading. With yen at 109 and change for the first time in about month, one has to think that a short squeeze has happened here. Yen traders must have been short dollars and long yen to drive the price of yen higher the past few weeks, and all it takes is one short dollar trade getting reversed for profit taking or the fact that it was getting long in the tooth, and the snowball effect begins to take place. As I said yesterday, the Japanese government or Bank of Japan (BOJ) haven’t done anything, said anything, or even had pictures of them distributed to the media, (HA!), to make traders want to sell yen. So this has to have been generated by a short squeeze of the dollar/yen cross.

The U.S. Data Cupboard, as I told you yesterday, was bare on Monday, and had little for us to look at until we get a piece of real economic data on Friday in Retail Sales. However, what the “little” the cupboard did have yesterday was this crazy little thing called love… no wait! It was this crazy little thing called the LCMI. Labor Conditions Market Index, which does a far better job of illustrating what’s going on in the U.S. labor market than the silly and outrageous BLS Jobs report.

The LCMI for April declined for the fourth consecutive month, falling -0.9 points month on month. It appears that the “help wanted online index” looks to have peaked late last year, despite what the BLS jobs report reflect. I’ve told you for a long time now, that there’s no rhyme or reason to pay attention to the BLS surveys and their hedonic adjustments, but for those of you who still want to, then this LCMI should straighten that desire out.

Remember when I used to mock Bank of England Gov. Mark Carney when he would talk about rate hikes for the U.K.?  I used to say that there was no way he was going to be able to hike rates, and that he should stop talking about it, getting the markets all lathered up and driving the value of the pound higher. Well, I came across this on Bloomberg via Ed Steer who pointed it out to me, and thought, well, this certainly plays nicely in the sandbox with my earlier thoughts on the U.K.’s soft economy and why Carney wouldn’t be able to hike rates. It can be found here, or check out the snippet today: 

U.K. stores had their steepest sales decline since 2008 last month as British consumers shunned the country’s shopping streets.

Like-for-like sales fell 6.1 percent compared with April last year, business advisory firm BDO LLP said in its monthly report. Fashion retailers were hardest hit, with sales dropping 9.2 percent as stores ended seasonal discounting toward the end of the month.

The figures confirm recent evidence of difficult trading for U.K. retailers. Clothing merchant Next Plc cut its sales forecast for a second time this week, shortly after the collapses of department-store chain BHS Group Ltd. and formalwear retailer Austin Reed. Cool spring weather, muted wage gains and uncertainty surrounding the upcoming European Union referendum have caused consumers to defer purchases.

‘Retailers are concerned that consumers aren’t inclined to spend at the moment because of the overall economy,’ Charles Allen, an analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence, said by phone.

Chuck again. Well, I could sit here and pat myself on the back or I could raise a ruckus about me being right, but instead I’ll just sit here being humble! AS IF!

That’s it for today. Thanks again for reading the Pfennig, I hope you have a Tom terrific Tuesday, and be good to yourself!

Regards,

Chuck Butler
for The Daily Pfennig

P.S. "If you want to be informed rather than disinformed, go to The Daily Reckoningwebsite and sign up for the free Daily Reckoning letter." That's what one leading author said about the free daily email edition of The Daily Reckoning. Don't miss out another day. Click here now to sign up for FREE.

The post LCMI Drops for 4th Consecutive Month appeared first on Daily Reckoning.

Trump could get 100% of Republican vote and not win gen

Posted: 10 May 2016 08:01 AM PDT

 Democratic strategist Julie Roginsky and Republican strategist Boris Epshteyn on the 2016 presidential race. The Financial Armageddon Economic Collapse Blog tracks trends and forecasts , futurists , visionaries , free investigative journalists , researchers , Whistelblowers , truthers and...

[[ This is a content summary only. Visit http://www.newsbooze.com or http://www.figanews.com for full links, other content, and more! ]]

Banks Break the “Bond Barrier” — Here’s What It Means For Gold

Posted: 10 May 2016 08:00 AM PDT

This post Banks Break the "Bond Barrier" — Here's What It Means For Gold appeared first on Daily Reckoning.

Dear Resource Hunter,

On Oct. 14, 1947, American test pilot Chuck Yeager took flight above Muroc Dry Lake, in California's Mojave Desert. He broke the sound barrier in a small, streamlined aircraft called X-1. However, after reviewing flight data, engineers realized that supersonic flight had potential to rip the wings off an airplane. This was a problem, and we'll discuss it more in just a moment.

Meanwhile, in January 2016, central bankers across the world also broke another "barrier" of sorts. Collectively, they rolled down a road that's unfamiliar to modern finance. We've never seen this new issue before; in fact, it has potential to "rip the wings" (so to speak) from high-end finance across the world. It's a major problem, and we'll address that in a moment, as well.

Stress Tears the Wings Off…

It was Tuesday morning. Sky was clear and the sun shone bright above Muroc. At 10 a.m., a large, four-engine B-29 bomber rolled down the runway carrying a small shape underneath one wing, an aircraft that looked much like a .50-caliber bullet, but with fairly straight, stubby wings.

First aircraft to fly supersonic. NASA photo.

After climbing to altitude, at 10:26, the bomber dropped small aircraft, the latter flown by a seasoned pilot named Chuck Yeager. Yeager engaged systems and fired a series of "reaction motors" that took his aircraft — the above-noted Bell X-1 — toward so-called "transonic" flight regime. Shock diamonds formed behind four rocket nozzles of the engine, and Yeager's X-1 soon approached Mach 0.85, a point beyond which there existed no wind tunnel data on the problems of flight.

At 40,000 feet altitude, X-1 finally leveled off; Yeager fired another rocket motor. The aircraft's Mach meter moved smoothly through 0.98, 0.99, to 1.02, and then jumped to 1.06. A strong "bow shockwave" formed in the air ahead of the needlelike nose of X-1. Yeager recorded that his aircraft reached a velocity of 700 miles per hour, Mach 1.06, at 43,000 feet. The flight was smooth, and the small, sleek Bell X-1, with Yeager at controls, became the first successful supersonic airplane in the history of flight. Yeager had The Right Stuff, in the words of Tom Wolfe and his fabulous 1979 book of that title.

After Yeager and X-1 landed, engineers reviewed flight data and realized that they faced immense challenges when designing and operating super-fast airplanes. One critical issue was that as an airframe approaches "sound barrier," stress builds up on leading edges of the nose and wings. In fact, if engineers had not intentionally "overdesigned" X-1, it's likely that aerodynamic stress would have torn off the wings.

As time went on and new aircraft designs rolled out, many test pilots died as they flew into the wild unknown of the sky, especially in supersonic realms. These are lessons "written in blood," as we used to say in the Navy.

The long and short is that to go supersonic, engineers had to redesign aircraft from the inside out. Every structural element had to be stronger than even the toughest aircraft of World War II. Airframe shapes had to transform as well, to deal with supersonic airflow. All this demanded new materials, too — such as advanced metals and super alloys that could withstand the stress of operating beyond the speed of sound.

The New "Bond Barrier"

OK, no more mil-tech just now. My point here is to illustrate how dramatically things change when you break certain barriers — like the sound barrier. Now let's redirect that same kind of thinking to another barrier that's currently being shattered, the "bond barrier." What do I mean?

A bond represents debt: often as not, "secured" debt. The idea is that one party loans money to another — say, a government — and after a certain time, that second party pays interest and eventually returns all principal to lender. Interest rates can vary, but principal is sacrosanct. The lender always wants the money back.

For many years, one of the safest forms of investment has been a U.S. government bond, backed by the proverbial "full faith and credit" of the U.S. government. Loan money to Uncle Sam, and then hold the bond to term, and you WILL recover all principal, plus interest along the way.

Now, however, rules of this bond game are changing. Central bankers are moving toward "negative interest rates." We've seen it in Europe and elsewhere. Recently, for example, the government of Japan sold long-term bonds with a negative yield. Specifically, Japan raised $19.4 billion at auction, offering a 10-year benchmark bond at -0.024% average yield.

Think about that… It means holders of this bond will "pay" the Japanese government for the privilege of lending it money. Buy a government bond, and make a (so far) small donation, so to speak. Bizarre, no? One way or another, we're witness to governments breaking the "bond barrier." This will rock our world, I suspect.

Wings Coming Off

That is, I view this as a "transonic" moment here. With negative interest, the wings are about to come off of government finance. In essence, governments propose to "borrow" money from lenders and declare right up front that they won't pay back all principal. That's nuts. Who came up with this crazy idea? It's the Wrong Stuff, to coin a different phrase.

Wherever this negative interest idea came from, it's no wonder there's a global rush to buy gold and other precious metals and invest in basic resource plays. In January, as negative interest rates gained traction, gold prices lifted off of recent lows and moved up strongly. Same with silver, platinum, palladium and even beaten-down copper. Heck, even iron ore recently moved. Hard assets, in other words. Look below for a six-month gold chart; note movement since the beginning of 2016…

Gold’s 19% move from $1,060 to $1,260.

Clearly, there's strong gold buying at work, indicating a rally with breadth, depth and volume. And it's happening now. I'll have more for you in other alerts.

For now, you should understand that negative interest rates reignited the commodity sector and spun a major turn in the investment cycle. Just as engineers had to use new designs and metals to break the sound barrier, this "bond barrier" move seems to be good for gold, that's for sure.

Regards,

Byron W King

Editors Note: First came The New Case for Gold, now there is something even bigger… If you haven't seen Jim Rickards latest announcement, that's because only 1% of readers are being granted access.

This is a time sensitive announcement, so I would recommended clicking here before it's too late.

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The post Banks Break the "Bond Barrier" — Here's What It Means For Gold appeared first on Daily Reckoning.

Gold And Silver Deliveries On Monday May 9

Posted: 10 May 2016 07:17 AM PDT

China to Suck Up the World's Physical Gold Using Shanghai Gold Exchange and Arbitrage

Posted: 10 May 2016 06:18 AM PDT

China Can Soon "Crush the Banks... Roll Out Alternative Currency System" Mike Gleason: This is Mike Gleason with Money Metals Exchange and it is my privilege now to welcome in Craig Hemke of the TF Metals Report. Craig runs one of the most highly respected and well known blogs in the industry and has been covering the precious metals for close to a decade now and puts out some of the very best analysis on banking schemes, the flaws of Keynesian economics, and evidence of manipulation in the gold and silver markets. Craig, it's great to have you back with us and thanks for joining us again today. Welcome! Craig Hemke: Mike, it's my pleasure and thank you for the kind words. I appreciate it.

USD may attempt a new Low, SPX probing the Trendline

Posted: 10 May 2016 05:24 AM PDT

Traders are beginning to ask the question, “Is the Dollar oversold enough for a trend change?” YahooFinance Has an article explaining the technical analysis for a reversal. Allow me to weigh in. April 27 was a Pi date, warning that a bottom may come soon. The chart low occurred on May 3, six calendar days later.

The Gold Bull Is Back

Posted: 10 May 2016 04:26 AM PDT

The Gold Bull Is Back
By Egon von Greyerz

 

We know that central banks and governments have lost the plot. When the crisis started in 2006, US short rates were 5%. In 2008 they were down to zero and have virtually stayed there ever since. A crisis package of $25 trillion was thrown at the financial system. This is … Read the rest

Gold And Silver Bullion ‘Super Bull Market’ Initiated Says David Morgan - Video

Posted: 10 May 2016 03:30 AM PDT

‘Silver guru’ David Morgan was recently interviewed by Future Money Trends and said that the gold and silver bullion “super bull market” has been initiated. “We are finally in the very beginning of the new bull market which will be the most exciting as the third leg up is the one that is the most rewarding. In fact few will believe just how high the precious metals will go. The end date is most likely 2018/2019 at this point.”

Stan Druckenmiller: The Bull Market Is Exhausted; Make the Move to Gold

Posted: 10 May 2016 01:00 AM PDT

Legendary investor Stan Druckenmiller, founder of Duquesne Capital Management LLC, told the Sohn Investment Conference in New York last week that he is bullish on gold and bearish on the stock market. Gold, he told the conference, "is our largest currency allocation."

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