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Tuesday, March 15, 2016

Gold World News Flash

Gold World News Flash


First Bank Failure of the Year – North Milwaukee State Bank

Posted: 15 Mar 2016 12:00 AM PDT

by Ken Tumin, Deposit Accounts:

The first bank failure of 2016 occurred last Friday. North Milwaukee State Bank in Wisconsin was closed by state regulators, and the FDIC arranged for First-Citizens Bank & Trust Company of North Carolina to assume all of the deposits. North Milwaukee State Bank was small with only two branches and with only $61.5 million in deposits.

Bank failures have become rare. The last bank to fail was on October 2, 2015 which was over five months ago. Last year only eight banks failed. If the trend continues, we will probably only see around two bank closures per quarter. A few years ago, it was rare to go through a month without a bank closure. In fact, there were months in 2010 with over ten failures.

The closure of North Milwaukee State Bank was typical in that the FDIC arranged for another bank to assume all of the deposits. According to the FDIC:

No one lost any money on deposit as a result of the closure of this bank. All deposits, regardless of dollar amount, were transferred to First-Citizens Bank & Trust Company.

The only exception are brokered deposits which were not assumed by First-Citizens Bank & Trust Company. Those with brokered deposits of this bank who had over the FDIC limits may not get back their uninsured deposits. Below are the instructions the FDIC provided for these depositors:

The total of all deposit accounts, excluding the Cede & Co. deposits, have been assumed by First-Citizens Bank & Trust Company. If you are a customer who has a North Milwaukee State Bank deposit through a broker, you must contact your broker with any questions.

CD customers of this failed bank will have to wait to see what happens with their rates. According to the FDIC's Q&A:<

Interest on deposits accrued through close of business on Friday, March 11, 2016, will be paid at your same rate. North Milwaukee State Bank's rates will be reviewed by First-Citizens Bank & Trust Company and may be lowered; however, you will be notified in writing of any changes. You may withdraw funds from any transferred account, regardless of whether your interest rate changes, without early withdrawal penalty until you enter into a new deposit agreement with First-Citizens Bank & Trust Company.

Credit Union Failures

In the last five months, there have been seven credit union failures (three in 2016 and four in 2015). These were very small credit unions with only three having assets of over $1 million. The names and sizes of these credit unions are listed below. One thing to note about these closures is that only two of the seven that were closed had another credit union to assume members' deposits. For the other five credit unions, the NCUA closed the credit union and sent checks of insured deposits to the members. Members who had deposits over the NCUA limits may have lost their uninsured deposits.

Read More @ DepositAccounts.com

Inflection Points

Posted: 14 Mar 2016 11:50 PM PDT

By Stefan Wieler and Josh Crumb from GoldMoney.com

The full report can be accessed here
as PDF

 

Inflection
Points

 

Introduction

Gold prices
in USD have rallied strongly in recent weeks, up 18% year-to-date. Gold prices
in other currencies look similar; of the 20 most traded currencies in the
world, gold is up in all of them. In the media and in finance, as with most
exchange-traded commodities, gold is almost always quoted in USD. Hence, as
gold prices in USD moved lower over the past year, many remained under the
impression that gold was in a downtrend. However, when we look at gold priced
in the 20 most traded currencies in the world, in 80% of them, gold showed a
positive performance over the past two years. But does that mean gold in these
currencies has resumed its long term upward trend? In order to find that out,
we have created a set of intuitive rules to define inflection points at which
gold prices decisively change direction. We find that in 55% of the world's
most traded currencies, gold has re-entered a clear uptrend.

Gold prices
in all currencies saw their peaks somewhere in 2011. What followed then was a
more or less sharp decline, but unlike for gold priced in USD, gold priced in
most other currencies troughed in late 2013 to early 2014 and has been trending
higher since. We find that for the world's major currencies, uptrends tend to
last about 4.5 years on average during which gold prices increase by more than
100%. 95% of the world population does not use the USD as local currency and is
not paid in USD. Saving in gold has helped them to protect their wealth as
their currencies resumed their long-term decay. In the end, this is the path
all fiat currencies follow as their purchasing power declines. Gold is the only
money that has held its purchasing power over time. Indeed it is the only money
that has survived throughout history.

While the
USD and a few other currencies have so far been the outliers, prices have
reversed sharply as well. Applying our set of rules to the USD, we find that
gold has entered an uptrend as well as long as prices remain above $1165/ozt,
roughly USD100/ozt below current levels. Historically USD gold uptrends lasted
over three years and pushed gold prices up more than 200%.

 

Inflection Points

 

Gold prices rallied strongly in recent weeks in all major
currencies. In the 20 most traded currencies, gold is up between 13% and
23%year-to-date (see Figure 2). Unprecedented central bank action had pushed
gold priced in USD to an all-time high in 2011 but since then gold prices
trended down as longer dated energy prices moved sharply lower and USD real
interest rates have recovered from negative levels. (We explain how
longer-dated energy prices and real interest rates affect gold prices here.) In
the media and in finance, as with most commodities, gold is almost always
quoted in USD. Hence, as gold prices in USD have moved lower over the past
year, many remained under the impression that gold was in a downtrend. However,
a quick analysis of the year-over-year performance in gold shows that this view
is not warranted (see Figure 2). Last year, gold was flat or up in half of the
20 most traded currencies in the world. And it's up with double digit returns
in all of them so far this year.

 

But does that mean gold in these currencies has resumed its
long-term upward trend? In order to find that out we have created a set of
intuitive rules to define inflection points at which gold prices distinctively
change direction. An inflection point is defined by two things: 1) the first
derivative of the 200-day moving average changes sign; and 2) there must be a
5% price change in the 200-day weighted moving average between two inflection
points.

The first rule simply says that the inflection point (the
point where gold ceases to be in a downward trend and enters an upward trend or
vice versa) is where the 200-day weighted moving changes direction, from down
to up or up to down. What is the 200 day weighted moving average and why are we
not simply using spot prices? The 200 day weighted moving average is the
average price of gold in a currency over the past 200 days, where the last day
is weighted with 1, the day before with 1-1/200 and so forth. The advantage of
the 200-day weighted moving average of a price is that the price history is
much smoother than just the daily price. Daily prices tend to be volatile and
change direction all the time. Hence over the analyzed period of 45 years since
1971, we could not positively identify long term trends as there would be
thousands of inflection points.

But even with the 200-day weighted moving average, there
will be some shorter periods where the curve changes direction without
establishing a clear trend change. That is where the second rule comes into
effect: An inflection point is only confirmed when the performance of the
200-day weighted average exceeds 5% (or -5% respectively) in the new direction.
In a nutshell, we define the local extrema where prices move in one direction
for at least 5% until the next local extrema. This rule allows us to identify
clear and sustainable trends. Once gold prices in a particular currency have
entered an upward trend, these trends tend to last for several years.

Before we show the results for all currencies we take a
closer look at gold in USD. The results for the USD are presented in figure 3.
There have been eight upward trends and eight downward trends since 1971. The
average trend lasted around 2.9 years where up-trend lasted slightly longer
than the average down-trends. The average uptrend yielded a performance of
207%, the average down move a performance of -39% measured by the 200-day
weighted moving average. Despite the recent rally, it is still too early to
determine whether gold in USD has re-entered an uptrend. Should gold prices not
drop below USD1165/ozt over the coming months (almost USD100/ozt below current
levels), a new uptrend will be confirmed.

 

By choosing the 200-day weighted moving average, we minimize
the number of trend changes, which allows us to identify the long term trends.
But the downside is that inflection points will only reveal themselves well
into the cycle and the inflection points on the 200-day weighted average are
lagging the true troughs and peaks (spot prices). For example, the lasted peak
in USD gold prices was in September 2011, but the 200-day weighted average only
changed trend in March 2012. In order to reduce the time lag we ran the same set of rules
but used a 50-day moving average instead. This time series is more volatile and
hence shows more frequent trend changes. By analyzing the 50-day moving average
indicated that gold in USD has already re-entered an uptrend.

For other currencies the case is much more decisive. In
euros for example, the 200-day weighted average made a low in June 2014. The
respective trough in the spot price was in December 2013. Since then prices
moved up 33%. The picture is similar for gold priced in Canadian dollars, where
prices are up 34% since the low in 2013. If historical performance is a good
indicator, these trends will continue to last for another two years and should
push gold prices substantially higher.


 

Applying these rules to the 20 major world currencies (20
most traded currencies according to the Bank of International Settlements), 55%
are now thoroughly in an uptrend (see Table 1). Of those currencies where gold
is still trending down, both the Hong Kong dollar and the Chinese yuan are
quasi pegged to the USD, so that shouldn't come as a surprise. Excluding those
shows that in 2/3 of the world's major currencies, gold is in a sustainable
up-trend. Table 1 shows how gold in the 20 most traded currencies has performed
through the up- and down-cycles since 1971 (some currencies with smaller price
history show shorter time-frames). On average there were eight up- and seven
down-trends. The up-trends lasted 4.5 years on average, the downtrends only two
years. Gold prices in their respective currencies were up anywhere from 133% to
several thousand % on average during an up-cycle, but only down between -24%
and -40%.

Gold has undoubtedly been a better store of value than any
currency over any prolonged period in modern history. After the sharp price
rise in the aftermath of the 2008-09 credit crisis, gold prices in all
currencies went through a period of consolidation. We believe, this was partly
because gold prices overshot to the upside and had to correct. In addition, the
sharp decline in energy prices has created negative headwinds for gold prices
in all currencies. These headwinds seem to be mostly behind us as longer-dated
energy prices have now reached unsustainable levels. (See our previous report
on this topic here.)

Gold prices in most currencies have thus resumed their long
term upward trend. 95% of the world population does not use the USD and is not
paid in USD. Saving in gold has helped them to protect their wealth as their
currencies resumed their long term decay. In the end, this is the path all fiat
currencies go as their purchasing power inevitably declines. Gold is the only
money that has held its purchasing power over long periods of time and indeed
is the only currency to have survived through history.

The USD and some USD-pegged currencies have been the
standouts of late as they appreciated vs other currencies as well as gold for
the past few years. However, with gold prices now firmly higher, gold in USD
has likely re-entered the uptrend as well. Our historical analysis implies
there is much more upside still ahead.

 

 

Morgan Stanley Pimps Money-Losing Bonds

Posted: 14 Mar 2016 11:00 PM PDT

by Jeff Nielson, Bullion Bulls:

I rarely bother to make any note at all of the “calls” made by the Big Banks, on precious metals markets, or any others. However, sometimes the nonsense which emanates from these fraud-factories is so extreme and absurd that it requires some sort of acknowledgment (i.e. condemnation). This is one of those cases.

Let’s begin with a brief review of bond-market fundamentals. By now, most people here should know the basic equation of all bond markets: bond prices and bond interest rates are the direct inverse of each other. In other words, when interest rates rise, bond prices fall. When bond prices rise, it means the “yield” (i.e. interest rate) has fallen.

Currently, all Western interest rates are at near-zero or lower. In any rational world, this is the ABSOLUTE, THEORETICAL MAXIMUM for bond prices, since (in a rational universe) it’s impossible for interest rates to go to zero (let alone “negative” rates). Of course we don’t have a rational world, but even in our insane/criminalized world, what Morgan Stanley is counseling today is ridiculous gibberish: buy bonds.

There are only two, possible ways in which this “buy” call could be interpreted:

1) Morgan Stanley is expecting interest rates to go STRONGLY NEGATIVE, in which case the (fraudulent) bond prices would rise, or;
2) Morgan Stanley is expecting bond prices to FALL (or stay stable), but expects everything else to fall much farther/faster.

Let’s look at these two possibilities. In fact, we can quickly reject #1, as soon as we read the first line of this gibberish propaganda:

Morgan Stanley, one of the Wall Street banks that deals with the Federal Reserve, cut its Treasury yield forecasts for 2016 and said the central bank will wait until December before raising interest rates. Benchmark 10-year yields fell from a six-week high.

So Morgan Stanley is “predicting” U.S. interest rates will rise — modestly and belatedly — meaning that (at very best) bond prices could remain close to stable, but could not rise. Thus we are immediately left with only #2. But even here, these snake-oil salesmen are speaking with their usual forked-tongues.

Morgan Stanley is NOT (openly) saying “buy bonds, because everything else is going to crash”, it’s calling FLAT bond prices a “bull market”. Understand the full implications here. With any of our paper wealth, we lose 10% (or more) on that paper each year due to (real) inflation, depending on precisely where you live. Thus it requires at least a 10% annual return on our investment just to BREAK EVEN.

The Great Inflation Lie

Yet here we have one of the world’s (supposedly) most-prestigious investment banks counseling investors that if they get a 0% return (at best) by buying bonds, that this is “a bull market” even thought they’re losing 10% per year on inflation. In other words, a -10% return is “a bull market”, according to Morgan Stanley.

Of course, Morgan Stanley dwells nowhere near the real world. It lives inside the Wonderland Matrix. In the Wonderland Matrix, there is no “inflation”. And in “the New Normal”, breaking even is “a bull market”. Insanity, piled atop insanity, piled atop more insanity.

Read More @ BullionBullsCanada.com

Making Sense of Cents

Posted: 14 Mar 2016 10:06 PM PDT

Forex remains to be the largest market in the world and the least understood.  Central banks have more influence on global markets than any other force.  In other words, monetary policy is the ONLY economic indicator(s) investors should be watching, because let's face it, if the Fed raised rates to 10% like they should do and called in all that QE money, stocks would collapse.

But yet Forex remains a mystery, something that someone may have mentioned or you heard about.. wait FX is a TV channel?  or graphics?  a movie?

One has to wonder who is more stupid, is it the clowns that worked for the big FX banks getting fined, jailed, or fired for misbehavior - or PBOC who seems intent to destroy not only any hope of becoming a 'real' currency (let alone a world reserve currency) but killing their trade markets as well:

In September last year, Chinese regulators stepped on the throat of a 'fair' market in equity futures trading and for all intent and purpose killed the Chinese equity market. Tonight - after 2 days of Yuan weakness - having warned everyon from Soros to Kyle Bass that "betting against the Yuan can't possibly work," The PBOC just unleashed plans for so-called "Tobin Tax" on FX transactions (which implicitly taxes each transaction, reducing liquidity, raising margins and reducing leverage).

Meanwhile, there is a real world demand for Forex, and the CME group is reporting record volumes, even 6% more than the previous record:

CME Group (NASDAQ:CME), one of world's leading derivatives marketplaces, announced that on March 10 it reached record trading volumes for forex futures and options. The record 2 517 334 contracts were traded on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME). The number is 6% higher than the previous record of March 6, 2010. Also on March 10, were traded the record 2 350 478 forex futures contracts, exceeding by 142 061 the previous record of 2 208 417 contracts from May 6, 2010. 

The record volumes were driven by the Euro FX Futures (EUR/USD) trade: $127.13 billion in notional value in futures and $18.5 billion in options.

As central banks become more and more like big hedge funds, and Forex markets become more volatile, there will be a growing need for Forex for any investment portfolio.

More and more public companies report 'currency headwinds' - the most notable recent report comes from Toys R Us:

Toys "R" Us Inc. said revenue slipped 2.6% in the latest quarter as the retailer faced currency headwinds over the holiday period.

The foreign exchange volatility was partially offset by the rise of same store sales of 2.3% in the fourth quarter. Currency woes, however, had a negative $169 million impact.

For the year, the toy store's same store sales increased a modest 0.9%.

"Throughout the year, and especially during the holiday season, we focused on improving our execution to deliver a positive and memorable shopping experience to our customers," said Dave Brandon, chief executive officer. "We significantly improved our performance, but we can and will make further progress on our quest to achieve flawless execution in every aspect of our operations."

It must take a multi-million dollar salary to make such a bombastic statement... losing millions because of a lack of internal financial controls (i.e. no Forex hedging) and at the same time, state that we are on a 'quest to achieve flawless execution in every aspect of our operations.'  Or maybe 'flawless' is executive-speak for misplacing a few million in the Forex market.  This guy should run for political office!

But it shouldn't be alarming, in the meetings leading to the "Nixon Shock" and the modern free floating Forex system, genius statesman Henry Kissinger admitted honestly "Economics is not my Forte."

Secretary Kissinger: But if they ask what they're doing—let me just say economics is not my forte. But my understanding of this proposal would be that they—by opening it up to other countries, they're in effect putting gold back into the system at a higher price.

Mr. Enders: Correct.

Secretary Kissinger: Now, that's what we have consistently opposed.

Mr. Enders: Yes, we have. You have convertibility if they—

Secretary Kissinger: Yes.

Mr. Enders: Both parties have to agree to this. But it slides towards and would result, within two or three years, in putting gold back into the centerpiece of the system—one. Two—at a much higher price. Three—at a price that could be determined by a few central bankers in deals among themselves.

So, in effect, I think what you've got here is you've got a small group of bankers getting together to obtain a money printing machine for themselves. They would determine the value of their reserves in a very small group.

There are two things wrong with this.

Secretary Kissinger: And we would be on the outside.

We want money printing machine! We want money printing machine! (childish dancing and yelling)  

If The Fed had any sense, they would immediately raise rates to 10%, the US Dollar would soar.  Prices of imports would plummet.  Money would flow to USA like a river.  Exports, would need to be managed - but anyway the USA is a net-importer and it costs us nothing to print money and buy from foreigners.  

It's amazing, the lack of understanding out there for the most important market in the world - the global money markets; FOREX.  On the one hand, our money is worth less and less every year (most economic actors are Forex losers).  On the other hand, Forex hedging is simple to use; and it's possible to even make money by trading Forex.  

Elite E Services, Inc. published a book for those who want to know more about Forex "Splitting Pennies" on sale on kindle and in print from Lulu.  

Autos: Next Subprime Crisis?

Posted: 14 Mar 2016 10:00 PM PDT

Gary Kaltbaum, president of Kaltbaum Capital Management, explains why easy-money policy could be to blame for the beginnings of another subprime crisis…this time in the auto industry. The Financial Armageddon Economic Collapse Blog tracks trends and forecasts , futurists , visionaries ,...

[[ This is a content summary only. Visit http://www.newsbooze.com or http://www.figanews.com for full links, other content, and more! ]]

Egypt Devalues Currency 13% Due to Crippling Dollar Shortage

Posted: 14 Mar 2016 09:40 PM PDT

from DAHBOO77:

Important Updates: Federal Reserve, Stock Market, Gold, Silver – Gregory Mannarino

Posted: 14 Mar 2016 08:40 PM PDT

Scalia Murdered After Obama Meeting (updated)

Posted: 14 Mar 2016 08:20 PM PDT

from Veteran’s Today:

NOTE: Revelations on the Allan case, which led to Scalia now lead into the entire Koch network, including the Federalist Society, said to be operating not simply in law schools but America's high schools as well, and into the Heritage Foundation.

We don't know when it began, maybe at the Presidio under Michael Aquino and the Temple of Set or before. We do know it has victimized thousands of children around the world, not only in America but channeling children through Belgium and the Netherlands into sexual slavery and death.

What is it that makes the powerful desire what is so hurtful and obscene? When we ignored the Franklin Coverup, we opened ourselves to this… Gordon Duff

Scalia – What really happened?

Justice Antonin Scalia was surprised when he was ordered to the White House. This was not a man you gave orders to, especially not President Obama. It was Justice Antonin Scalia who vacated the long sacrosanct immunity from civil lawsuits, opening the door for a weakened presidency.

Sources say that Scalia was the single actor behind the impeachment of Bill Clinton. President Obama was aware of this and had ordered the FBI to set out traps for Scalia. We will now outline the downfall of Antonin Scalia. Yes, this is a story of secret societies, operating worldwide and ritual Satanic child abuse that permeates Washington.

When Scalia left the White House after a meeting with the president just before flying to Texas, the manila envelope he was carrying had printouts from a computer seized by FBI Special Agent Jeff Ross of the Salt Lake City, Utah field office, or so informants tell us.

Scalia left the White House carrying "slam dunk proof" that would lead to the arrest, conviction and, of course, impeachment of a seated Supreme Court Justice, files that contained names of victims and details on sex acts, preferred "types" along with dates and places. All of this was on the seized computer and these files went "up hill" from the FBI to the Department of Justice and directly over to the White House.

There, political advisors leapt on them, seeing a chance to leverage a justice and, in this case, and this is very important, bring down Scalia in such a way that conservatives would be forced to accept virtually any Obama nomination.

When Scalia arrived in Houston and chartered a plane after ditching his US Marshall protection detail, Scalia and his companion, C. Allen Foster. Foster heads the Order of Hubertus and is co-owner with John Poindexter of the Cibolo Creek Ranch, 25,000 plus acres free for anyone to use, according to John Poindexter, "free of charge," so long as they are a supreme court justice, "A list" celebrity like Mick Jagger or billionaires, others need not apply.

St. Hubertus ritual mask from Scalia death scene, photo credit: InfoWars.com

The crux of the story is how they got Scalia. According to sources, Scalia had been providing protection for an international pedophile ring and was murdered by "friends" who he had informed of the nature of his visit with Obama and the doom it signaled for those around Scalia, prosecution, ruin and Citizens United reversed.

The mechanism Scalia used to provide this protection was the Federalist Society which chooses the judges throughout the US judiciary system so should any unfortunate pedophile find himself in court, the judge was under Scalia's control, thus making a successful prosecution difficult to achieve.

The Federalist Society grooms and recruits candidates to become judges at a young age – college age kids; they specifically seek out suitable candidates who have certain moral ambiguities that can be exploited.

Thus a stranglehold is placed on the judicial system of the United States by a group which serves the interests of big business – corrupt corporations, big pharma, the oil and coal barons; this is how their interests are, time and again, placed ahead of those of we, the people with the result that our environment and our bodies are polluted by the products of these corporations, be it poisons like aspartame and GMO crops in our food, toxins in our ground water (see Flint, MI) or just plain old exploitation of poor people such as the coal miners of West Virginia and Kentucky.

Scalia met with the Order of Saint Hubertus, the patron saint of million dollar dude ranch hunting. As of yet, no one has identified who was there, it seems that Supreme Court justices are found all the time with pillows over their faces and nobody asks a thing, but this was Texas and they make their own rules down there.

We remember former FBI director and founder, J Edgar Hoover, the man who said ritual satanic child abuse was a conspiracy theory. He is also the man who said the mafia didn't exist. 

Scalia's talk in Texas was said to have gone like this: "They have us, we are all going down unless we can give them what they want and they are holding all the cards, they have everything." There was no negotiation with the White House, instead Scalia got, we are told and multiple sources confirm, a pillow over the face and a heroic funeral, one that President Obama refused to attend. Now we know why.

For a seated president to not attend the funeral of a pedophile is unthinkable.

Read More @ Veteranstoday.com

Was the First Obama Election Fixed? New Book Raises Suspicions

Posted: 14 Mar 2016 07:40 PM PDT

by Pam Martens, Wall Street on Parade:

At Wall Street On Parade we call it continuity government. Michael M. Thomas, in a new book of quasi-fiction, calls it Fixers, the idea that no matter who comes and goes in the Oval Office, Wall Street has a fix in to make sure it is protected. The Thomas book could not come at a more inconvenient time for outgoing President Obama and the next leg of the continuity government that Wall Street hopes to install in the White House – otherwise known as Hillary Clinton.

Fixers notes that the characters with speaking parts in the book are "wholly creatures of the author's imagination and invention" but the securities "transactions and situations" in which those characters are involved are "matters of historical record."

So what you're getting in Fixers is a spellbinding analysis of the actual dirty deals that toppled Wall Street in 2008 with a new twist – a fictitious character who says he laundered $75 million into the Democratic presidential campaign of Hillary Clinton's primary challenger in 2007 in exchange for three names on an index card. Those three names had to become the "hope and change" President's chief economic advisor, Treasury Secretary, and head of the criminal division of the Justice Department. These three key posts were to keep piles of bailout money flowing to Wall Street while simultaneously making sure no Wall Street executives were prosecuted for the crimes that brought on the crash.

The primary challenger to Hillary Clinton and the man who beats her and goes on to become President is called simply OG in the book. (OMG would have worked for me.)

The details in the book surrounding the three names on the index card seem to be channeling Larry Summers, Tim Geithner, and Lanny Breuer, who took the respective posts of chief economic advisor, Treasury Secretary and head of the Justice Department's criminal division in the first Obama administration and, indeed, sluiced trillions to Wall Street while the Justice Department failed to prosecute, saying it was worried  about collateral damage, such as triggering bank layoffs. (Like the collapse of the U.S. economy from untamed financial corruption is not collateral damage.)

Read More @ Wallstreetonparade.com

Gold Miners: A Correction In The Wind

Posted: 14 Mar 2016 07:20 PM PDT

 

The Gold Miners have started the year with a cracking rally pretty much as they started last year. They have finally broken out of their downward trend which has been in place for around 4 years.

America's Gestapo: The FBI's Reign Of Terror

Posted: 14 Mar 2016 07:20 PM PDT

Submitted by John Whitehead via The Rutherford Institute,

We want no Gestapo or secret police. The FBI is tending in that direction. They are dabbling in sex-life scandals and plain blackmail. J. Edgar Hoover would give his right eye to take over, and all congressmen and senators are afraid of him.”—President Harry S. Truman

Don’t Be a Puppet” is the message the FBI is sending young Americans.

As part of the government’s so-called ongoing war on terror, the nation’s de facto secret police force is now recruiting students and teachers to spy on each other and report anyone who appears to have the potential to be “anti-government” or “extremist.”

Using the terms “anti-government,” “extremist” and “terrorist” interchangeably, the government continues to add to its growing list of characteristics that could distinguish an individual as a potential domestic terrorist.

For instance, you might be a domestic terrorist in the eyes of the FBI (and its network of snitches) if you:

  • express libertarian philosophies (statements, bumper stickers)
  • exhibit Second Amendment-oriented views (NRA or gun club membership)
  • read survivalist literature, including apocalyptic fictional books
  • show signs of self-sufficiency (stockpiling food, ammo, hand tools, medical supplies)
  • fear an economic collapse
  • buy gold and barter items
  • subscribe to religious views concerning the book of Revelation
  • voice fears about Big Brother or big government
  • expound about constitutional rights and civil liberties
  • believe in a New World Order conspiracy

Despite its well-publicized efforts to train students, teachers, police officers, hairdressers, store clerks, etc., into government eyes and ears, the FBI isn’t relying on a nation of snitches to carry out its domestic spying.

There’s no need.

The nation’s largest law enforcement agency rivals the NSA in resources, technology, intelligence, and power. Yet while the NSA has repeatedly come under fire for its domestic spying programs, the FBI has continued to operate its subversive and clearly unconstitutional programs with little significant oversight or push-back from the public, Congress or the courts. Just recently, for example, a secret court gave the agency the green light to quietly change its privacy rules for accessing NSA data on Americans’ international communications.

Indeed, as I point out in my book Battlefield America: The War on the American People, the FBI has become the embodiment of how power, once acquired, can be easily corrupted and abused.

When and if a true history of the FBI is ever written, it will not only track the rise of the American police state but it will also chart the decline of freedom in America.

Owing largely to the influence and power of the FBI, the United States—once a nation that abided by the rule of law and held the government accountable for its actions—has steadily devolved into a police state where justice is one-sided, a corporate elite runs the show, representative government is a mockery, police are extensions of the military, surveillance is rampant, privacy is extinct, and the law is little more than a tool for the government to browbeat the people into compliance.

The FBI’s laundry list of crimes against the American people includes surveillance, disinformation, blackmail, entrapment, intimidation tactics, harassment and indoctrination, governmental overreach, abuse, misconduct, trespassing, enabling criminal activity, and damaging private property.

And that’s just based on what we know.

Whether the FBI is planting undercover agents in churches, synagogues and mosques; issuing fake emergency letters to gain access to Americans’ phone records; using intimidation tactics to silence Americans who are critical of the government; recruiting high school students to spy on and report fellow students who show signs of being future terrorists; or persuading impressionable individuals to plot acts of terror and then entrapping them, the overall impression of the nation’s secret police force is that of a well-dressed thug, flexing its muscles and doing the boss’ dirty work of ensuring compliance, keeping tabs on potential dissidents, and punishing those who dare to challenge the status quo.

The FBI was established in 1908 as a small task force assigned to deal with specific domestic crimes. Initially quite limited in its abilities to investigate so-called domestic crimes, the FBI has been transformed into a mammoth federal policing and surveillance agency. Unfortunately, whatever minimal restrictions kept the FBI’s surveillance activities within the bounds of the law all but disappeared in the wake of the 9/11 attacks. The USA Patriot Act gave the FBI and other intelligence agencies carte blanche authority in investigating Americans suspected of being anti-government.

As the FBI’s powers have grown, its abuses have mounted.

The FBI continues to monitor Americans engaged in lawful First Amendment activities.

 

COINTELPRO, the FBI program created to “disrupt, misdirect, discredit, and neutralize” groups and individuals the government considers politically objectionable, was aimed not so much at the criminal element but at those who challenged the status quo—namely, those expressing anti-government sentiments such as Martin Luther King Jr. and John Lennon. It continues to this day, albeit in other guises.

 

The FBI has become a master in the art of entrapment.

 

In the wake of the 9/11 terrorist attacks the FBI has not only targeted vulnerable individuals but has also lured them into fake terror plots while actually equipping them with the organization, money, weapons and motivation to carry out the plots—entrapment—and then jailing them for their so-called terrorist plotting. This is what the FBI characterizes as “forward leaning—preventative—prosecutions.”

 

FBI agents are among the nation’s most notorious lawbreakers.

 

In addition to creating certain crimes in order to then “solve” them, the FBI also gives certain informants permission to break the law, “including everything from buying and selling illegal drugs to bribing government officials and plotting robberies,” in exchange for their cooperation on other fronts. USA Today estimates that agents have authorized criminals to engage in as many as 15 crimes a day. Some of these informants are getting paid astronomical sums: one particularly unsavory fellow, later arrested for attempting to run over a police officer, was actually paid $85,000 for his help laying the trap for an entrapment scheme.

 

The FBI’s powers, expanded after 9/11, have given its agents carte blanche access to Americans’ most personal information.

 

The agency’s National Security Letters, one of the many illicit powers authorized by the USA Patriot Act, allows the FBI to secretly demand that banks, phone companies, and other businesses provide them with customer information and not disclose the demands. An internal audit of the agency found that the FBI practice of issuing tens of thousands of NSLs every year for sensitive information such as phone and financial records, often in non-emergency cases, is riddled with widespread violations.

 

The FBI’s spying capabilities are on a par with the NSA.

 

The FBI’s surveillance technology boasts an invasive collection of spy tools ranging from Stingray devices that can track the location of cell phones to Triggerfish devices which allow agents to eavesdrop on phone calls.  In one case, the FBI actually managed to remotely reprogram a “suspect’s” wireless internet card so that it would send “real-time cell-site location data to Verizon, which forwarded the data to the FBI.”

 

The FBI’s hacking powers have gotten downright devious.

 

FBI agents not only have the ability to hack into any computer, anywhere in the world, but they can also control that computer and all its stored information, download its digital contents, switch its camera or microphone on or off and even control other computers in its network. Given the breadth of the agency’s powers, the showdown between Apple and the FBI over customer privacy appears to be more spectacle than substance.

 

James Comey, current director of the FBI, knows enough to say all the right things about the need to abide by the Constitution, all the while his agency routinely discards it. Comey argues that the government’s powers shouldn’t be limited, especially when it comes to carrying out surveillance on American citizens. Comey continues to lobby Congress and the White House to force technology companies such as Apple and Google to keep providing the government with backdoor access to Americans’ cell phones.

 

The FBI’s reach is more invasive than ever.

 

This is largely due to the agency’s nearly unlimited resources (its minimum budget alone in fiscal year 2015 was $8.3 billion), the government's vast arsenal of technology, the interconnectedness of government intelligence agencies, and information sharing through fusion centers—data collecting intelligence agencies spread throughout the country that constantly monitor communications (including those of American citizens), everything from internet activity and web searches to text messages, phone calls and emails.

 

Today, the FBI employs more than 35,000 individuals and operates more than 56 field offices in major cities across the U.S., as well as 400 resident agencies in smaller towns, and more than 50 international offices. In addition to their “data campus,” which houses more than 96 million sets of fingerprints from across the United States and elsewhere, the FBI is also, according to The Washington Post, “building a vast repository controlled by people who work in a top-secret vault on the fourth floor of the J. Edgar Hoover FBI Building in Washington. This one stores the profiles of tens of thousands of Americans and legal residents who are not accused of any crime. What they have done is appear to be acting suspiciously to a town sheriff, a traffic cop or even a neighbor.”

 

If there’s one word to describe the FBI’s covert tactics, it’s creepy.

 

The agency’s biometric database has grown to massive proportions, the largest in the world, encompassing everything from fingerprints, palm, face and iris scans to DNA, and is being increasingly shared between federal, state and local law enforcement agencies in an effort to target potential criminals long before they ever commit a crime.

 

This is what’s known as pre-crime.

If it were just about fighting the “bad guys,” that would be one thing. But as countless documents make clear, the FBI has no qualms about using its extensive powers in order to blackmail politicians, spy on celebrities and high-ranking government officials, and intimidate dissidents of all stripes.

It’s an old tactic, used effectively by former authoritarian regimes.

In fact, as historian Robert Gellately documents, the Nazi police state was repeatedly touted as a model for other nations to follow, so much so that Hoover actually sent one of his right-hand men, Edmund Patrick Coffey, to Berlin in January 1938 at the invitation of Germany’s secret police. As Gellately noted, “[A]fter five years of Hitler’s dictatorship, the Nazi police had won the FBI’s seal of approval.”

Indeed, so impressed was the FBI with the Nazi order that, as the New York Times revealed, in the decades after World War II, the FBI, along with other government agencies, aggressively recruited at least a thousand Nazis, including some of Hitler’s highest henchmen, brought them to America, hired them on as spies and informants, and then carried out a massive cover-up campaign to ensure that their true identities and ties to Hitler’s holocaust machine would remain unknown. Moreover, anyone who dared to blow the whistle on the FBI’s illicit Nazi ties found himself spied upon, intimidated, harassed and labeled a threat to national security.

So not only have American taxpayers been paying to keep ex-Nazis on the government payroll for decades but we’ve been subjected to the very same tactics used by the Third Reich: surveillance, militarized police, overcriminalization, and a government mindset that views itself as operating outside the bounds of the law.

This is how freedom falls, and tyrants come to power.

The similarities between the American police state and past totalitarian regimes such as Nazi Germany grow more pronounced with each passing day.

Secret police. Secret courts. Secret government agencies. Surveillance. Intimidation. Harassment. Torture. Brutality. Widespread corruption. Entrapment. Indoctrination. These are the hallmarks of every authoritarian regime from the Roman Empire to modern-day America.

Yet it’s the secret police—tasked with silencing dissidents, ensuring compliance, and maintaining a climate of fear—who sound the death knell for freedom in every age.

TRUTH About Markets: From Fannie Mae Collapse 2.0 To Hyperinflation — Max Keiser

Posted: 14 Mar 2016 06:40 PM PDT

from Max Keiser TV:

Max and Stacy talk about Fannie Mae, EU referendum, Brexit, cashless society, debt, credit, Texas student debt and the property market…

So where's all that imaginary gold coming from and why?

Posted: 14 Mar 2016 05:22 PM PDT

8:23p ET Monday, March 14, 2016

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Gold futures were sold short heavily last week by bullion banks on behalf of central banks, GoldMoney founder and GATA consultant James Turk tells King World News today. That's why, Turk says, gold is not really "overbought" but rather oversold by the most powerful financial institutions in the world. Turk notes "widespread pessimism" about gold, while adding that the huge short position inspired by central banks makes a "moonshot" at least possible someday. An excerpt from his interview is posted at KWN here:

http://kingworldnews.com/james-turk-warns-despite-pullback-we-may-see-a-...

Meanwhile financial letter writer Clive Maund contends that the gold sector is actually insanely optimistic, and he pounds his chest about how right he will be proven when the bullion banks smash gold back down again, as if this isn't just the "wash, rinse, repeat" cycle central banks have been running with their bullion bank agents in the gold market for many years. Maund doesn't seem curious about where the bullion banks obtain huge amounts of metal credits like this and what this implies for a supposedly free-market economy -- and, indeed, what it implies for the "technical analysis" offered by financial letter writers. His commentary is posted at his Internet site, CliveMaund.com, here:

http://www.clivemaund.com/article.php?art_id=3750

GATA makes no price predictions. It simply presses the question: Where is all that imaginary gold coming from and why? Evidence bearing on the question can be found here:

http://www.gata.org/node/14839

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org



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Join GATA here:

Mines and Money Asia
Tuesday-Thursday, April 5-7, 2016
Hong Kong Convention and Exhibition Centre
Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China

http://asia.minesandmoney.com/

Mining Investment Asia
Wednesday-Friday, April 13-15, 2016
Marina Bay Sands, Singapore

http://www.mininginvestmentasia.com/

Support GATA by purchasing recordings of the proceedings of the 2014 New Orleans Investment Conference:

https://jeffersoncompanies.com/landing/2014-av-powell

Or by purchasing DVDs of GATA's London conference in August 2011 or GATA's Dawson City conference in August 2006:

http://www.goldrush21.com/order.html

Or a colorful poster of GATA's full-page ad in The Wall Street Journal on January 31, 2009:

http://gata.org/node/wallstreetjournal

Help keep GATA going

GATA is a civil rights and educational organization based in the United States and tax-exempt under the U.S. Internal Revenue Code. Its e-mail dispatches are free, and you can subscribe at:

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To contribute to GATA, please visit:

http://www.gata.org/node/16

The Assassination of Donald Trump

Posted: 14 Mar 2016 04:59 PM PDT

 The establishment wants someone to assassinate Donald Trump. The Financial Armageddon Economic Collapse Blog tracks trends and forecasts , futurists , visionaries , free investigative journalists , researchers , Whistelblowers , truthers and many more

[[ This is a content summary only. Visit http://www.newsbooze.com or http://www.figanews.com for full links, other content, and more! ]]

Damned Turks! Who the hell do they think they are -- Indians?

Posted: 14 Mar 2016 04:54 PM PDT

Why Turks Are Skipping Banks and Keeping Their Gold at Home

By Mehmet Cetingulec
Al-Monitor, Washington, D.C.
Monday, March 13, 2016

Gold jewelry that adorns the arms and necks of many Turkish women is actually a traditional instrument of savings. Newlyweds put together their initial capital with gold coins, trinkets, and jewelry pinned on them at weddings. But this gold, once hidden at home, has absolutely no benefit to the economy.

These gold hoards are estimated to have reached 5,000 tons. The value of gold has been on an upward trend: On March 14 it reached 3,582.85 Turkish lira ($1,249.22) per ounce. That means the under-the-mattress overall value of gold is now almost 580 billion Turkish lira ($201 billion).

The Istanbul Gold Refinery has been striving for five years in cooperation with banks to draw this gold back into the economy. In a project involving 11 banks, refinery experts inspect and assess the gold brought in by bank clients. When the amount is logged into the clients' accounts, the physical gold becomes registered gold.

The refinery explains the benefit of the system: "Gold will be safe. There will be no risk of theft or loss. The state guarantee for the gold deposit accounts is 150,000 Turkish lira. They are available 24 hours for transactions. Clients can cash any amount they want from their gold accounts." ...

... For the remainder of the report:

http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2016/03/turkey-billions-of-dol...



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Join GATA here:

Mines and Money Asia
Tuesday-Thursday, April 5-7, 2016
Hong Kong Convention and Exhibition Centre
Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China

http://asia.minesandmoney.com/

Mining Investment Asia
Wednesday-Friday, April 13-15, 2016
Marina Bay Sands, Singapore

http://www.mininginvestmentasia.com/

Support GATA by purchasing DVDs of GATA's London conference in August 2011 or GATA's Dawson City conference in August 2006:

http://www.goldrush21.com/order.html

Or a colorful poster of GATA's full-page ad in The Wall Street Journal on January 31, 2009:

http://gata.org/node/wallstreetjournal

Help keep GATA going

GATA is a civil rights and educational organization based in the United States and tax-exempt under the U.S. Internal Revenue Code. Its e-mail dispatches are free, and you can subscribe at:

http://www.gata.org

To contribute to GATA, please visit:

http://www.gata.org/node/16

Central Banks Are Looking To Extend Debt Into More Countries To Hold Off The Collapse

Posted: 14 Mar 2016 04:40 PM PDT

 Greece's banks give the illusion they are ok, but in reality they are ready to collapse. IMF Lagarde wants to spread debt to more countries to keep the system propped up. Tax refunds tumble much lower than the previous year which will hurt retail further. Physical gold demand strong in other...

[[ This is a content summary only. Visit http://www.newsbooze.com or http://www.figanews.com for full links, other content, and more! ]]

BAIL-INS AND NEGATIVE INTEREST RATES, THE ULTIMATE ADMISSION OF FAILURE; CASH AND PHYSICAL GOLD, STANDING IN THE WAY OF A LIFETIME OF FINANCIAL SERVITUDE AND SLAVERY!

Posted: 14 Mar 2016 02:49 PM PDT

MIKE HOY has very kindly sent article to us which I thought would be of interest to you:

For the last several decades, the out-of-control growth of US Government spending

when combined with the unlimited printing policies of “The Fed” has set the stage for

“The Perfect Storm!”  

Anyone with a simple calculator can easily understand how it is virtually impossible for

320,000,000 people to retire a current and rapidly growing debt of

$19,000,000,000,000. This is a sum which equates into $60,000 worth of debt per man,

Full Event: Donald Trump Town Hall in Hickory, NC at Lenoir-Rhyne University

Posted: 14 Mar 2016 02:29 PM PDT

 Monday, March 14, 2016: GOP Presidential candidate Donald Trump held a town hall event at Lenoir-Rhyne University in Hickory, NC with Gov. Chris Christie.Full Event: Donald Trump Town Hall in Hickory, NC at Lenoir-Rhyne University (3-14-16) The Financial Armageddon Economic Collapse Blog...

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Near-Term Gold Forecast: The Thrill of Victory and the Agony of Indecision. . .

Posted: 14 Mar 2016 02:06 PM PDT

Man-oh-man, the heat I am taking over my recent "Caution" stance on the near-term outlook for gold and silver is now verging on the theatre of the absurd, says precious metals expert Michael Ballanger.

Your Personal Gold Standard

Posted: 14 Mar 2016 01:29 PM PDT

This post Your Personal Gold Standard appeared first on Daily Reckoning.

I only know of two men who really understand the true value of gold — an obscure clerk in the basement vault of the Banque de Paris and one of the directors of the Bank of England. Unfortunately, they disagree.

— Lord Nathan Rothschild

Money is gold, and nothing else.

— J.P. Morgan

Nobody really understands gold prices, and I don't pretend to understand them either.

— Ben Bernanke

These quotes illustrate the perennial challenge that investors face in deciding what role gold should play in their portfolios. Few understand how to value gold, and even fewer understand that gold is not really an investment — it is money. Of course, if you want a portfolio that preserves wealth, money is a good place to start.

Saying gold is not an investment may seem strange, especially since I recommend some gold in an investor's portfolio. To illustrate this point, you can reach into your purse or wallet and pull out a dollar bill. You think of the dollar as "money," but you do not think of it as an investment.

An investment has some element of risk, and typically has some yield in the form of interest, dividends or rent. Money can be turned into an investment by using it to buy stocks, bonds or real estate. But as a dollar bill, it is just money; it has no yield and will still be a dollar tomorrow or next year.

Gold is the same. It has no yield. An ounce of gold today will be an ounce of gold next year and the year after that. It will not mysteriously turn into two ounces. It will not rust or change shape or color. It is just gold. Yet it is money.

It's true that the value of gold may change when measured in dollars. It is also true that the value of a dollar may change when measured in euros or ounces of gold. But these changes in relative value do not turn these units into investments; they just reflect supply and demand for different forms of money.

There isn't a central bank in the world that wants to go back to a gold standard. But that's not the point. The point is whether they will have to.

I've had conversations with several of the Federal Reserve Bank presidents. When you ask them point-blank, "Is there a theoretical limit to the Fed's balance sheet?" they say no. They say there are policy reasons to make it higher or lower, but that there's no limit to the amount of money you can print.

That is completely wrong. That's what they say; that's how they think; and that's how they act. But in their heart of hearts, some people at the Fed know it's wrong. Luckily, people can vote with their feet…

I always tell people who say we're not on the gold standard that, in a way, we are. You can put yourself on a personal gold standard just by buying gold.

In other words, if you think that the value of paper money will be in some jeopardy, or confidence in paper money may be lost, one way to protect yourself is by buying gold, and there's nothing stopping you.

The typical rejoinder is, "What's the point of owning gold? They're just going to confiscate it, like Roosevelt did in 1933?" I find that extremely unlikely.

In 1933, we'd just come through four years of the Great Depression, and Roosevelt was new in office. People talk about the first hundred days, but he closed the banks right after he was sworn in. And he confiscated gold only a few weeks later.

And it wasn't as if Elliot Ness was going door to door, breaking into your house and taking gold. They wanted to get a small number of people who had 400-ounce bars in bank vaults. And they got those people because they were able to close the banks and use them as intermediaries to confiscate that gold. But now, it's far more dispersed, and there's far less trust in government.

If the government tried to confiscate gold today, there would be various forms of resistance. The government knows this. So they wouldn't issue that order, because they know it couldn't be enforced, and it might cause various kinds of civil disobedience or pushback, etc.

As long as you can own gold, you can put yourself on your own gold standard by converting paper money to gold. I recommend you do that to some extent. Not all in, but I recommend having 10% of your investable assets in gold for the conservative investor, and maybe 20% for the aggressive investor — no more than that.

Those are pretty high allocations relative to what people have. Most people own no gold, and all the institutions combined have only a limited allocation to gold. So even if you take the low end of this range, you're still nowhere near 10%. In fact, institutions could not raise their gold allocation even to a few percent. There's not enough gold in the world — at current prices — to satisfy that demand. So it's got this huge upside associated with it.

Still, central banks don't want to go to a gold standard. But if gold is a barbarous relic, if gold has no role in the monetary system, if gold is a "stupid" investment, then why do the Chinese keep buying it? Are they stupid?

Gold has already rallied about 20% since the start of the year. If some scenarios play out, you are going to see the price of gold go up… a lot more. And it may go up a lot in a very short period of time. It's not going to go up 10% per year for seven years and the price doubles. It could have a kind of a steady upward movement… and then a spike… and then another spike… and then a super-spike. The whole thing could happen in a matter of 90 days — six months at the most.

When that happens, you're going to have two Americas. You're going to have an America that was not prepared. Paper savings will be wiped out; 401(k)s will be devalued; pensions, insurance and annuities will be devalued through inflation… Because remember, it's not just the price of gold going up.

It's like putting a thermometer in a patient, getting a 104-degree temperature and blaming the thermometer. The thermometer's not to blame; it's just telling you what's going on. Likewise, the price of gold is not an economic object or aim in itself; it's a price signal. It tells you what's going on in the economy. And gold at the levels I'm talking about would mean that you've now verged into hyperinflation, or something close to it, because nothing happens in isolation.

Deflation seems to have the upper hand right now. But the monetary system can swing from deflation to inflation rapidly, without any intermediate steps.

At that point, you have to give more credence to gold. Now you've crossed the threshold. The minute you think of gold and paper money side by side, or having some relationship, you get to these price levels of $7,000–8,000 an ounce. They're not made up. They're not there to be provocative. They're actually the math. Those are the numbers you get when you simply divide the money supply by the amount of gold in the market.

People are going to have to pay attention to that. And either the Chinese are dopes, for example — which they're not — or people will start to get gold, which they will.

But if there's a run on paper currencies (which is entirely possible) and there's borderline hyperinflation (which is entirely possible), they may have to go to a gold standard… Not because they want to, but because they find it necessary to calm the markets.

I suggest you buy your gold at current levels — around $1,244 — and ride the wave up to these much higher levels ($4,000-5,000 an ounce) and then assess the situation. Be nimble.

You can't just write a game plan today and follow it step by step. That's nonsense. You have to be nimble; you have to be following developments; you have to be prepared to change your mind based on new news.

Regards,

Jim Rickards
for The Daily Reckoning

P.S. Be sure to sign up for The Daily Reckoning — a free and entertaining look at the world of finance and politics. The articles you find here on our website are only a snippet of what you receive in The Daily Reckoning email edition. Click here now to sign up for FREE to see what you're missing.

The post Your Personal Gold Standard appeared first on Daily Reckoning.

Gold, Silver, Zika, ZIRP, and NIRP Viruses

Posted: 14 Mar 2016 01:28 PM PDT

The Zika virus is the newest threat to humanity, especially pregnant women, so they say.  Big Pharma is working feverishly to create a vaccine.  Chances are the vaccine will be created, highly profitable, and Big Pharma will be “held harmless” for injuries to those who were vaccinated. Add GM mosquitos, birth defects, Brazilian Olympics, big profits, and the story becomes a huge distraction.  John Rappoport has suggested there is more to the story.

Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts - FOMC Announcement on Wednesday the 16th

Posted: 14 Mar 2016 01:13 PM PDT

Gold and a Crisis Delayed

Posted: 14 Mar 2016 12:58 PM PDT

This post Gold and a Crisis Delayed appeared first on Daily Reckoning.

"Is it just me or is the next market correction taking way longer than it should?" said a recent note we got from a friend. "In other words, have the powers that be figured out how to keep the music playing better than ever?"

It's a great question. So much is riding on the answer. Late last year, a reader wrote in with a variation on the theme: "Kill and burn a goat, let's get this show rollin'."

The question and the answer are so important we'll spend this entire episode of The 5 tackling a single subject — something we haven't done in well over a year.

Let's begin with a point we can all agree on: The United States has been in a persistent economic funk ever since the Panic of 2008.

"The U.S. economy has grown about 2% per year since 2009," says Jim Rickards. "This rate is below the economy's potential growth of 3%, and well below the pace of past recoveries.

"Following the recessions of 1980 and 1981, the U.S. economy grew at about 5% for several years before settling back to trend. The U.S. economy had record peacetime expansions in the 1980s and 1990s. That kind of growth is like a distant memory now."

While the federal budget deficit and the national debt haven't made big headlines in recent years, the problem hasn't gone away. Indeed, it's only grown.

Why haven't we heard much squawking about the deficit and the debt? A lot of it has to do with the ultra-low interest rates we've experienced since the Panic of 2008. That year, the national debt totaled $10.02 trillion. Interest expense on that debt totaled $451 billion. A 10-year Treasury note yielded just shy of 4%.

At the end of fiscal 2015, the national debt had ballooned to $18.15 trillion — an 81% increase. But interest expense on the debt was lower than it was in 2008 — $402 billion. That's because a 10-year Treasury note yielded only 2.15%. (This morning, it's even lower — 1.95%.)

The Federal Reserve's zero interest rate policies have been brutal on savers… but they've been great for Uncle Sam.

Here's the real problem: "While U.S. deficits have declined, they are still adding to the overall debt faster than the economy is growing," Jim says.

This fact is critical. It comes down to a concept called "primary deficit sustainability" that Jim wrote about in his second book, The Death of Money. The absolute size of the deficit doesn't matter. What matters is the trend of the deficit as a percentage of GDP.

"Think of nominal GDP [before inflation] as one's personal income and the primary deficit as what gets charged on a credit card," he wrote.

"Borrowing costs are interest on the credit card. If personal income increases fast enough to pay the interest on the credit card with money left over to pay down the balance, this is a manageable situation. However, if one's income is not going up and new debt is piled on after paying the old interest, the bankruptcy is just a matter of time."

Two years after that book was published, the trajectory is no different. "The U.S.," he says, "is still on a path to fiscal crisis and loss of confidence in the dollar."

Another point we can all agree on: The Federal Reserve's efforts to lift the U.S. economy out of its funk haven't worked.

And the Fed's remaining tools are of limited utility: The Fed missed its chance to raise rates in 2010–2011 so it could cut them now.

The Fed could opt for negative interest rates, like they have in Europe and Japan now. But as we explained on Friday, negative rates appear to be backfiring: Rather than encouraging people to borrow and spend, people feel compelled to save even more than they did before.

The Fed could also return to the currency wars and cheapen the dollar, as it did in 2011. "But U.S. gains," says Jim, "come at the expense of trading partners whose growth is either already lower than the U.S.' (Japan and Europe) or dropping dangerously (China's). In a globalized world, there's no escape from a global slowdown."

"Global elites are getting desperate to try something new to stimulate growth," Jim goes on.

We saw hints of that "something new" in December — when President Obama and House Speaker Paul Ryan cut a budget busting deal with $680 billion in "targeted" tax breaks for special interests.

Jim says that's just the beginning: "A new global consensus is emerging from elite voices such as Adair Turner, Larry Summers, Joe Biden and Christine Lagarde. The consensus is that the only solution to stagnation is expanded government spending on critical infrastructure, health care, technology, renewable energy and education. (In a Republican administration, more defense spending could be added to the list.)

"If citizens won't borrow and spend, the government will! It's the basic Keynesian idea from the 1930s without the monetarist gloss."

But wait, you're saying: Won't that only bring us closer to the moment of "fiscal crisis and loss of confidence in the dollar"?

Jim hears you. "More government spending means more government debt," he acknowledges. "Who will buy these added government bonds? How will the Treasury keep interest rates low enough so that a death spiral of higher deficits and higher rates doesn't push the Treasury bond market to the point of collapse?"

For answers, we have to go back more than 70 years.

"Beginning in April 1942, shortly after the U.S. entered World War II," says Jim, "the Fed agreed to cap interest rates on Treasury bonds to help finance the war effort. The cap meant that the Fed gave up its control of interest rate policy.

"The cap also meant that the Fed surrendered control of its balance sheet because it would have to buy potentially unlimited amounts of Treasury debt to implement the rate cap. (Such asset purchases had inflationary potential, but in World War II, inflation was managed separately through wartime price controls.)"

Once the war was over, the Treasury was understandably reluctant to cede control back to the Fed; the caps weren't lifted until 1951.

But the precedent was set.

"The Fed and Treasury will reach a new secret accord, just as they did in 1942," Jim says.

"Under this new accord, the U.S. government could run larger deficits to finance stimulus-type spending.

"The Fed will then cap interest rates to keep deficits under control. Capping rates will have the added benefit of producing negative real rates if inflation emerges as the Fed expects.

"The Fed can use open market operations in the form of bond buying to achieve the rate caps. This means the Fed would not only give up control of interest rates, it would give up control of its balance sheet. A rate cap requires a 'whatever it takes' approach to Treasury note purchases."

So that's how the powers that be will "keep the music playing." But what does that mean for you?

"If deflation persists," says Jim, "rate caps can force bonds to much lower levels (closer to where German bunds are today). Nominal rates and inflation would be in a race to the bottom in an effort to achieve negative real rates."

Yikes. If you lend money today to the German government for 10 years, you get a pathetic yield of 0.26%. In other words, the 10-year Treasury yield would sink far below the record low of 1.4% reached in the summer of 2012.

Remember, as rates go down, prices go up. "This will produce big capital gains in U.S. Treasury notes," Jim says.

"If inflation emerges," says Jim, "the rate cap might be higher in nominal terms but still low enough to achieve negative real rates. In this scenario, gold would perform extremely well."

But even if deflation persists, gold stands to benefit. That's because "central banks such as the Fed cannot tolerate deflation," Jim writes in his latest book, The New Case for Gold.

Deflation is devastating for the banks, whose loan losses grow. And it's devastating for the government; if people's wages don't rise, there's no additional income to tax.

"The Fed must have inflation," says Jim. "They will do everything possible to create inflation.

"When all else fails, they can always use gold to create inflation out of thin air by simply fixing the dollar price of gold at a much higher level. Then all other prices will quickly adjust to this new higher price of gold."

It's what FDR did in 1933. "The U.S. government forced the price of gold from $20.67 per ounce to $35 per ounce. It wasn't a case of the market taking gold higher; the market was in the grip of deflation at the time. It was the government taking gold higher in order to cause inflation" — which it did.

"Gold has a place in every investor's portfolio," Jim writes, "because it is one of the few asset classes that perform well in both inflation and deflation."

What's the time frame we're looking at? "Rate caps will not arrive until mid-2017 at the earliest," Jim tells us. "That's because the current Fed cycle of rate hikes followed by rate cuts has to play out first."

But as we said on Friday, confidence in central banks is cratering now. You don't have to look far to find it in the mainstream. Only this morning we see the chief of foreign-exchange strategy at UniCredit Research telling the Dow Jones Newswires that “Central banks as well as markets have become aware that monetary policy has limitations.”

And the gold price is sniffing this out. Look at the powerful rally from six-year lows back in December…

emerge

Jim didn't plan for his latest book, The New Case for Gold, to be published at this moment. But the stars do seem to be lined up. The official release date is still three weeks away, but the book is already No. 2 in the Business & Money section at Amazon.

Yes, you'll learn why gold is set to thrive as the Fed enters a dangerous new era. But the book is also packed with how-to advice gleaned from Jim's years of experience and extensive network of contacts. Should you store gold at home? How about overseas? Is it safe to buy online? What mistakes should you avoid?

All these questions are answered in The New Case for Gold. You'll also learn about Jim's "mystical" gold buying formula that tells you how much you should buy. That information alone is worth several times the $16.66 that Amazon is charging for the book.

But if you order from us today, you can get a signed hardback copy free — as long as you can cover the $4.95 shipping and handling. You'll also get a no-obligation 60-day trial of Jim Rickards' Strategic Intelligence. And you'll have the chance to listen in on an exclusive intelligence briefing that details a bombshell about to hit the gold markets — drawing on information Jim's learned from one of the most connected people in the gold world.

"In my private briefing," says Jim, "I'll share with you exactly what this insider shared with me… how we expect it to play out… and, most importantly, a solution set that will help you prepare… and prosper… from the aftermath."

It's an unbeatable combination… and it's available only at this link. Publication is set for Tuesday, April 5. We'll ship the book to your door as soon as it comes off the press.

Thanks for your forbearance today as we slogged through some complicated issues. But we know you're wondering why the inevitable crisis is so long in coming… and whether it can be forestalled a while longer.

Now you know, yes, it absolutely can. But you don't want to wait to shore up your financial defenses. Take advantage of this window of opportunity. Jim's providing the ideal playbook to get started.

As always, we appreciate your continued readership. We'll get back to regular programming tomorrow.

Happy Pi Day,

Regards,

Dave Gonigam
for The Daily Reckoning

P.S. Be sure to sign up for The Daily Reckoning — a free and entertaining look at the world of finance and politics. The articles you find here on our website are only a snippet of what you receive in The Daily Reckoning email edition. Click here now to sign up for FREE to see what you're missing.

The post Gold and a Crisis Delayed appeared first on Daily Reckoning.

Ganging up on Trump

Posted: 14 Mar 2016 11:58 AM PDT

This post Ganging up on Trump appeared first on Daily Reckoning.

BALTIMORE – Not much to report this morning…

The Dow rose 218 points on Friday ­– or just over 1%.

Oil is closing in on $38 a barrel. And after hitting a 13-month high on Friday, gold is down slightly. This morning, an ounce of the yellow metal is trading at $1,257.

"They Call Me Mule"

Our drive back from South Carolina took us up directly across North Carolina and then to Roanoke, Virginia.

There, we left the highway. We were looking for "tobacco wood."

Of course, there is no such thing as tobacco wood. It is a description applied to various sorts of woods that have been reclaimed from tobacco barns.

The little track took us over a mountain and into a little hollow.

"Just look for the log cabin on the right," our source had told us. "You can't miss us. You'll see some big logs laid out beside the road."

When we turned in, we were met by a man in his 50s with a scruffy beard. He was in a small, flatbed truck loaded with tools and covered with mud.

"Hi… They call me Mule," he said in a very heavy southern hill-country accent.

"I guess it's because I'm thickheaded. And maybe dumb, too."

Attacking Trump

We'll return to the hollows of Southwest Virginia, but first let's check and see what it happening in the president sweepstakes, the most important election in the world.

Tomorrow is yet another Super Tuesday. Donald Trump dominates the news, as he has during the entire campaign. But now, he's no longer dismissed as a disruptive, narcissistic billionaire.

Now, the media, his opponents, zombies, cronies – they're all taking him seriously. It looks like he might be the Republican candidate.

They're circling now… like wolves around a lonely stag.

In the news over the weekend, we discovered that Marco Rubio, the Deep State man, won the Deepest State of all: Washington, D.C.

Rubio's communication director, Alex Conant, said that voters in D.C. were “embracing the future.”

No doubt, they were embracing the future as they want it to be – that is, with no change…

Zombies and cronies prefer a future without a future… where nothing much changes.

The establishment – aka, the Deep State – is fighting to preserve its privileges.

According to the common narrative, Donald Trump will "shake things up." Naturally, the mainstream media, Big Business, the bureaucracy, cronies, zombies, the non-profit sector – they're all against him.

Most likely, no one – not even The Donald himself – knows what Trump is really after. Fame? Fortune?

Does he really want to shake things up and "make America great again"? Or just prove that he could make it to the top?

Is he really a maverick reformer? Or just another Deep State man in a different costume?

We don't know.

But someone like Trump was bound to show up. The middle class is disappearing… Household incomes are down… As reported in these pages, a 30-year-old today earns no more than a 30-year-old did 30 years ago…

"This is not the sort of thing that a democratic society – a capitalist democratic society – can readily accept," said Alan Greenspan in 2005.

Greenspan is a scoundrel, but he is no fool. The promise of modern government – and its social-welfare systems – are based on growth.

Each generation has to do better than the one before… or the whole thing falls apart.

But pension and health care systems cannot be funded. Promises – to zombies and cronies alike – cannot be kept. The middle-class center cannot hold.

So then, the plain people look for someone to "do something." They want a hero… a person who will kick ass on their behalf.

Torture? Okay.

Stop free trade? Sure, why not.

Dissolve both houses of Congress… send the Supreme Court  home…?

Maybe… if that's what it takes…

Ol' Smokey

After a few minutes of small talk with Mule, the sawmill owner drove up.

"I'm Mike. We spoke on the phone. Where you comin' from?"

"Well, we live in Baltimore."

"Oh… I used to live there. For a while. Not in Baltimore but in Silver Spring, near Washington.

"Now, you couldn't pay me to go back there."

"It's not so bad," we said weakly.

It was already about 6:30 p.m. but still light enough to see. We were on the side of a mountain, on the edge of a pasture that went down to a river at the bottom… and then up another mountain on the opposite side.

"Yeah, it's paradise here.

"Up there," he said, pointing up to the trees at the top of the mountain, "that's where Ol' Smokey lives. He's a 500-lb. bear. He roams all over here… I saw him walk by in front of my office.

"One day, a couple of hunters got some dogs and put those collars on them so you can track them. They said they were going to kill Ol' Smokey and have him stuffed.

"Ol' Smokey must have known something was up. The dogs took out after him… and they ran him all along that ridge. Then, he must have gotten tired… or he just wondered why he was running away from the dogs. He turned around and he whupped those dogs so bad they came running back down here.

"Tell you truth, I was glad they didn't get him.

"You wanted some wood?"

Regards,

Bill Bonner
for Bonner and Partners

P.S. Be sure to sign up for The Daily Reckoning — a free and entertaining look at the world of finance and politics. The articles you find here on our website are only a snippet of what you receive in The Daily Reckoning email edition. Click here now to sign up for FREE to see what you're missing.

The post Ganging up on Trump appeared first on Daily Reckoning.

ISIS in America -- 900 Cases being Investigated by The FBI

Posted: 14 Mar 2016 11:00 AM PDT

For the Record investigates how ISIS fighters have infiltrated the US. Premieres Wednesday, 3/16 at 9PM ET. The Financial Armageddon Economic Collapse Blog tracks trends and forecasts , futurists , visionaries , free investigative journalists , researchers , Whistelblowers ,...

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BlackRock was buying lots of GLD while fumbling its own gold fund

Posted: 14 Mar 2016 10:44 AM PDT

How BlackRock Took a Shine to a Competitor's Gold ETF

By Leslie Josephs
The Wall Street Journal
Monday, March 14, 2016

BlackRock, whose popular exchange-traded gold product briefly suspended the creation of new shares this month due to an administrative error amid a surge in demand, has been making a hefty bet on a gold ETF lately.

But here's the twist: It was a competitor's ETF.

BlackRock revealed in a regulatory filing Thursday that it had built a 13% stake -- worth about $4 billion -- in the largest exchange-traded gold product, the more than $32 billion SPDR Gold Trust. BlackRock held a roughly 5% stake in the ETF -- known by its ticker, GLD -- it said in a regulatory filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission a month earlier.

In addition to holding the title of world's biggest provider of exchange-traded funds by assets, BlackRock is the world's biggest asset manager with $4.6 trillion under management as of the end of last year. It operates a number of mutual funds and other investment products, and several of them could have been buying shares of GLD. ...

... For the remainder of the report:

http://blogs.wsj.com/moneybeat/2016/03/14/how-blackrock-took-a-shine-to-...



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To contribute to GATA, please visit:

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The Rats Keep Pressing The Bar: Two Amazing Stories, One Inevitable Result

Posted: 14 Mar 2016 10:35 AM PDT

Anyone who doubts that the global financial system has run out of (good new) ideas has only to track the recent words and deeds of central bankers and mainstream economists: Slightly-negative interest rates didn’t lead people to borrow more? We’ll go more negative! Buying up all the government bonds didn’t prevent deflation? We’ll start buying corporate bonds and equities!

Still, it’s shocking to see where this endless repetition of the same actions takes us. A recent Bloomberg article, for instance, notes that even though corporate profits are falling and individual investors are dumping equity mutual funds, company share buybacks are surging:

There’s Only One Buyer Keeping S&P 500’s Bull Market Alive

Demand for U.S. shares among companies and individuals is diverging at a rate that may be without precedent, another sign of how crucial buybacks are in propping up the bull market as it enters its eighth year.

Standard & Poor's 500 Index constituents are poised to repurchase as much as $165 billion of stock this quarter, approaching a record reached in 2007. The buying contrasts with rampant selling by clients of mutual and exchange-traded funds, who after pulling $40 billion since January are on pace for one of the biggest quarterly withdrawals ever.

"Anytime when you're relying solely on one thing to happen to keep the market going is a dangerous situation," said Andrew Hopkins, director of equity research at Wilmington Trust Co., which oversees about $70 billion. "Over time, you come to the realization, 'Look, these companies can't grow. Borrowing money to buy back stocks is going to come to an end."'

Share repurchases March 16

"Corporate buybacks are the sole demand for corporate equities in this market," David Kostin, the chief U.S. equity strategist at Goldman Sachs Group Inc., said in a Feb. 23 Bloomberg Television interview. "It's been a very challenging market this year in terms of some of the macro rotations, concerns about China and oil, which have encouraged fund managers to reduce their exposure."

Should the current pace of withdrawals from mutual funds and ETFs last through the rest of March, outflows would hit $60 billion. That implies a gap with corporate buybacks of $225 billion, the widest in data going back to 1998.

Another recent Bloomberg article highlights the emerging school of economic thought that says governments’ big mistake of the past decade was to borrow and spend too little:

Ignored for Years, a Radical Economic Theory Is Gaining Converts

In an American election season that's turned into a bonfire of the orthodoxies, one taboo survives pretty much intact: Budget deficits are dangerous.

A school of dissident economists wants to toss that one onto the flames, too.
It's a propitious time to make the case, and not just in the U.S. Whether it's negative interest rates, or helicopter money that delivers freshly minted cash direct to consumers, central banks are peering into their toolboxes to see what's left. Despite all their innovations, economic recovery remains below par across the industrial world.

Calls for governments to take over the relief effort are growing louder. Plenty of economists have joined in, and so have top money managers. Bridgewater's Ray Dalio, head of the world's biggest hedge fund, and Janus Capital's Bill Gross say policy makers are cornered and will have to resort to bigger deficits.

"There's an acknowledgment, even in the investor community, that monetary policy is kind of running out of ammo," said Thomas Costerg, economist at Standard Chartered Bank in New York. "The focus is now shifting to fiscal policy."

Currency Monopoly
That's where it should have been all along, according to Modern Money Theory. The 20-something-year-old doctrine, on the fringes of economic thought, is getting a hearing with an unconventional take on government spending in nations with their own currency.

Such countries, the MMTers argue, face no risk of fiscal crisis. They may owe debts in, say, dollars or yen — but they're also the monopoly creators of dollars or yen, so can always meet their obligations. For the same reason, they don't need to finance spending by collecting taxes, or even selling bonds.

In the U.S., one presidential candidate is at least listening to MMT economists. Advisers to Bernie Sanders include some of the school's leading advocates: Stephanie Kelton, a Sanders hire to the Senate Budget Committee, and James K. Galbraith, whose father helped shape President Lyndon Johnson's "Great Society" programs.

The match makes sense. Sanders is promising massive investments in health, education and infrastructure. Economists who see more danger in fiscal austerity than looseness make natural allies.

At first glance, corporate share buybacks and a theoretical debate over fiscal policy might seem like unrelated developments. But in reality they’re both parts of the meta-trend of policy makers becoming lab rats obsessively pressing the bar that used to dispense treats, even though the treats have run out.

Corporations buying back their shares at record prices while their profits are plunging (thus requiring them to buy at the top on margin, a classic dumb-money behavior) are doing something that has failed miserably at the peak of most previous business cycles. Yet corporate treasurers and CEOs, despite being old enough to remember several such cycles, are still compelled to press the bar because they have no other way of quickly goosing the share price — and thus the year-end bonus pool.

Economists who want governments to run bigger deficits financed with newly-created currency seem to miss the fact that today’s policy is already pretty much that. When a central bank buys most of the bonds its government issues, that government is in effect financing itself directly through money printing. So Modern Monetary Theory is being tried on a vast scale as this is written.

And so far, this combination of massive deficits and multi-trillion-dollar bond purchases isn’t working. Inflation is negative in huge sections of the world and growth is anemic at best pretty much everywhere. But here again, that bar is just so tempting because back in the 1950s or 1980s or whenever it yielded such tasty treats. So we get the spectacle of the BoJ and ECB running out of government bonds to buy and turning to corporate bonds and equities, thus directly financing even more than their governments’ deficits.

The implication is that these ideas will be taken farther than ever in coming years. And their inevitable failure will be commensurately epic.

Keith Barron's real-life adventure story of gold discovery in Ecuador, Part 2

Posted: 14 Mar 2016 10:28 AM PDT

1:27p ET Monday, March 14, 2016

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Part 2 of geologist and mining entrepreneur Keith Barron's account of his discovery of the Fruta del Norte gold deposit in Ecuador is even more of an adventure story than Part 1. It's amazing that he lived to tell the tale. It's posted at his Internet site, Straight Talk on Mining, here:

http://straighttalkonmining.com/2016-pdac-special-part-2/

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org



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Tuesday-Thursday, April 5-7, 2016
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Wednesday-Friday, April 13-15, 2016
Marina Bay Sands, Singapore

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Support GATA by purchasing DVDs of GATA's London conference in August 2011 or GATA's Dawson City conference in August 2006:

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Or a colorful poster of GATA's full-page ad in The Wall Street Journal on January 31, 2009:

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Help keep GATA going

GATA is a civil rights and educational organization based in the United States and tax-exempt under the U.S. Internal Revenue Code. Its e-mail dispatches are free, and you can subscribe at:

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To contribute to GATA, please visit:

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Max Keiser -- The Truth About Markets 20th Feb 2016

Posted: 14 Mar 2016 10:27 AM PDT

Max and Stacy talk about Fannie Mae, EU referendum, Brexit, cashless society, debt, credit, Texas student debt and the property market... The Financial Armageddon Economic Collapse Blog tracks trends and forecasts , futurists , visionaries , free investigative journalists , researchers...

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2016, the Year of the Red Monkey: Expect Wild, Unending Volatility

Posted: 14 Mar 2016 10:03 AM PDT

This post 2016, the Year of the Red Monkey: Expect Wild, Unending Volatility appeared first on Daily Reckoning.

In the lunar calendar that started February 8, this is the Year of the Red Monkey.

I found this description of the Red Monkey quite apt:

According to Chinese Five Elements Horoscopes, Monkey contains Metal and Water. Metal is connected to gold. Water is connected to wisdom and danger. Therefore, we will deal with more financial events in the year of the Monkey. Monkey is a smart, naughty, wily and vigilant animal. If you want to have good return for your money investment, then you need to outsmart the Monkey. Metal is also connected to the Wind. That implies the status of events will be changing very quickly. Think twice before you leap when making changes for your finance, career, business relationship and people relationship.

In other words, the financial world will be volatile. And few will have the agility and wile to outsmart the market-monkey.
For those who don't believe in astrological forecasts, there are plenty of other reasons to anticipate sustained volatility in 2016 that strips certainty and cash from bulls and bear alike.

What's the Source of Volatility?

Why are global markets now so volatile? The basic answer is as obvious as it is officially verboten: the global growth story is unraveling, and central banks and governments are increasingly desperate to re-ignite stagnating growth.

When solid evidence of flagging trade, sales and profits surfaces, markets drop. When central banks and states talk up monetary and fiscal stimulus, markets leap higher, as seven years of stimulus programs have rewarded those who "buy the dips."

The relatively brief downturns and quick recoveries of the past seven years have led many to believe that this tug of war will resolve itself one way or the other in a few months. But the past seven years may not be a good guide to the next year or two: volatility might persist, month after month, with no clear resolution.

Indeed, the past 25 years of “growth” and brief recessions may not be a good guide to the next few years, as there are no analogous periods of sustained volatility in recent history. Rather, the current period shares characteristics with each crisis and crash of the past 25 years, but combines all these causal factors in one overlapping series. This makes the present volatility unique.

Another causal factor is also unique to this era: after seven long years of zero interest rate policy (ZIRP), central banks have started pursuing an unprecedented policy of financial repression: negative interest rates (NIRP), in effect punishing savers for holding capital.

The uncertainties generated by these policies are fueling rapid cycling between selling and buying in both human and machine (trading bots) participants. Money managers fear losing capital in a crash, but are forced to seek yield in a zero or negative interest world.

No wonder volatility will reign supreme for some time to come: never before have all these causal factors been mixed together in a toxic brew of over-indebtedness, impaired collateral, faltering growth, collapsing commodity valuations, zero interest rates and currency devaluations.

The question everyone seeks to answer is simple: is the global economy sliding into recession? If so, it's smart to sell all risk assets such as stocks and emerging-market currencies before the herd panics and triggers a crash.

Triggers of Recession

The classic recession is the result of the ebb and flow of credit in the business cycle: in the expansion phase, credit blossoms as households borrow money to buy autos, homes, etc., and businesses borrow more to expand production, retail outlets, etc.

The "animal spirits" of heady expansion inevitably exceed prudent limits, and credit is eventually extended to marginal borrowers and marginal investments. As marginal borrowers default and risky bets sour, loans must be written off and the expansion of credit ceases: households and enterprises pay down debt (deleverage) and cut expenses, causing sales, profits and employment to slump.

Once the deleveraging has cleared the economy of impaired collateral, mal-investments and unsustainable debt loads, credit once again begins to expand as cheap assets and new opportunities present themselves to creditworthy borrowers.

A variety of crises can trigger a reversal of risk-on "animal spirits" to fear-based risk-off prudence. One classic trigger is a liquidity crisis: as euphoria shifts to caution, lenders are wary of rolling existing risky debt into new loans. Firms that owe the principal on existing debt find themselves short of cash and unable to access new credit, i.e. liquidity. These vulnerable firms founder, launching a panic in which assets are sold to raise cash and marginal lenders and borrowers alike become insolvent.

In the status quo narrative, central banks arose to eliminate liquidity crises: when credit dries up, your friendly central bank stands ready to issue unlimited credit to banks, enabling the banks to roll over existing debt and fund cash-poor enterprises.

These liquidity-driven panics are typically short-term events, as the washout is violent and brief, much like a thunderstorm. But asset bubbles/collateral crises are more like hurricanes—slow-moving storms that shred the bubble assets over months or even years.

In a credit-fueled asset bubble, the asset prices have been pushed to the moon by easy credit extended to marginal borrowers and speculators—participants who would have been unable to buy assets in more prudent eras.

All this new debt is based on collateral: if a house is valued at $250,000 and the mortgage is $200,000, the $250,000 market value is the collateral supporting the mortgage. The difference between the debt and the market value—$50,000—is the owner's collateral, and the lender's cushion against any future decline in value.

If the house soars in a bubble to $500,000, a lender might extend a $450,000 mortgage on the property. Once the house value falls back to $250,000, the collateral is woefully inadequate: if the owner defaults, the lender is facing a $200,000 loss on the eventual sale of the asset.
This is the "balance sheet" recession: the balance sheets of households and enterprises are crippled by heavy debt loads and non-performing debt.

Understandably, lenders are reluctant to book these horrendous losses, as they render highly leveraged lenders insolvent. Borrowers may be reluctant to declare bankruptcy, and governments fear the decline in property values and taxes.

Those with the most to lose share a common purpose: mask the collapse of collateral and delay the day of reckoning, i.e. the booking of the losses. There are a number of ways to accomplish this: allow banks to maintain an unrealistic value on the property, i.e. "mark to fantasy," or roll the mortgage over into a new larger loan that enables the owner to use new debt to make token payments on the new mortgage, and so on.

These stalling tactics drag out the process of writing down bad debt and liquidating impaired assets. As a result, participants can never be confident that asset values have truly been washed out.

A third trigger of recession is an external shock that saps confidence by raising costs or introducing uncertainty. Energy shortages, widespread natural disasters and war are examples of external shocks.

The Great Stagnation

A fourth and relatively new kind of recession is the "stagflation" or "Great Stagnation" type of recession that may not even qualify technically as a recession (the classic definition of recession is two quarters of negative growth). An economy that expands by a meager .2% year after year escapes the technical definition of recession, but it is mired in stagnation—a stagnation that can be accompanied by inflation in "stagflation" or by mild deflation/near-zero inflation.

Great Stagnations are deadly to the status quo of debt-dependent growth because without expansion of assets, revenues, profits and payrolls, credit cannot expand except if it is extended to marginal borrowers and mal-investments—precisely the type of risky borrowers that default and trigger a classic business-cycle recession of falling asset values, mass defaults and the resulting insolvency of overleveraged lenders, enterprises and households.

Since voters famously vote their pocketbooks, politicians presiding over deep recessions tend to get voted out of office. As a result, the political establishment is absolutely loathe to allow the cleansing of impaired debt and failed gambles that is necessary to establish a new foundation for prudent borrowing and healthy expansion.

Now that the global engine of rapid growth in credit, trade and asset valuations—China—has ceased to expand, the global economy is now mired in a Great Stagnation. For many regions, the Great Stagnation started in 2008 and has never really ended.

The problem is governments and central banks attempted to force an exit from the Great Stagnation by inflating asset bubbles—bubbles that were intended to restore confidence and the "animal spirits" that fuel more borrowing, investing and spending.

But these asset bubbles failed to lift household incomes or generate employment; as a result, the asset bubbles are teetering precariously on more promises of fiscal and monetary stimulus.

Unfortunately for those who own these bubble-assets, the returns on fiscal and monetary stimulus have rapidly diminished: China, for example, has created a stupendous $1 trillion in new credit in the past two months, and has very little in sustainable income/employment growth to show for this explosive expansion of debt. (Source)

No wonder markets are volatile: everything that worked for seven years is no longer working, but the promises of more stimulus are generating hope that the asset bubbles won't burst.

In Part 2: Outsmarting The Monkey, we look at capital flows and controls, and consider what average investors might do to protect themselves from volatility.

The mischievous red monkey’s purpose is to make this time as difficult as possible for investors to preserve their wealth. Fortunes have already been lost in the first few months of this year, and he’s just getting started.

Regards,

Charles Hugh Smith
for Of Two Minds

P.S. Ever since my first summer job decades ago, I've been chasing financial security. Not win-the-lottery, Bill Gates riches (although it would be nice!), but simply a feeling of financial control. I want my financial worries to if not disappear at least be manageable and comprehensible.

And like most of you, the way I've moved toward my goal has always hinged not just on having a job but a career.

You don't have to be a financial blogger to know that "having a job" and "having a career" do not mean the same thing today as they did when I first started swinging a hammer for a paycheck.

Even the basic concept "getting a job" has changed so radically that jobs–getting and keeping them, and the perceived lack of them–is the number one financial topic among friends, family and for that matter, complete strangers.

So I sat down and wrote this book: Get a Job, Build a Real Career and Defy a Bewildering Economy.

It details everything I've verified about employment and the economy, and lays out an action plan to get you employed.

I am proud of this book. It is the culmination of both my practical work experiences and my financial analysis, and it is a useful, practical, and clarifying read.

The post 2016, the Year of the Red Monkey: Expect Wild, Unending Volatility appeared first on Daily Reckoning.

2016 2017 WARNING ⚠ NWO ILLUMINATI AMERICAN GOVERNMENT YOU HAVE BEEN DECEIVED THIS IS THE END

Posted: 14 Mar 2016 08:30 AM PDT

You are in the hands of sociopaths. Have fun humanity. There's a fool born everyday. Try not to be one of them. The Financial Armageddon Economic Collapse Blog tracks trends and forecasts , futurists , visionaries , free investigative journalists , researchers , Whistelblowers ,...

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Alan Watt (Mar 13, 2016) Financial Gangsters Sing New Song Of Untold Riches from Carbon Con

Posted: 14 Mar 2016 08:00 AM PDT

Alan Watt Mar. 13, 2016 Blurb: "Financial Gangsters Sing New Song Of Untold Riches from Carbon Con" The Financial Armageddon Economic Collapse Blog tracks trends and forecasts , futurists , visionaries , free investigative journalists , researchers , Whistelblowers , truthers and many more

[[ This is a content summary only. Visit http://www.newsbooze.com or http://www.figanews.com for full links, other content, and more! ]]

Fed Meeting Highlights Busy Data Week

Posted: 14 Mar 2016 07:42 AM PDT

This post Fed Meeting Highlights Busy Data Week appeared first on Daily Reckoning.

And now… today's Pfennig for your thoughts…

Good day, and a marvelous Monday to you! 

We begin this week on a slow note, data-wise, but that’s no indication of what will come the rest of the week, as the data cupboard has been restocked and will print real economic data like: Retail Sales, Industrial Production, Capacity Utilization, and of course we will have a Fed FOMC Meeting to ice it all down.

Remember in January and February when all the talk was about how this and that country would be doing something with rates at their March meeting? We’ve already seen the Central Banks of Australia, New Zealand and Canada meet this month, and now, we’ll get to see the Big Kahuna, the Fed meet on Wednesday. Three months have passed since the Fed hiked rates in December, and then left them unchanged in January. What will they do this week?

The markets are still on fence, although the Fed Funds Futures are not buying the Fed rate hike talk this week. I still believe that the Fed needs to add arrows to its quiver, for future needs, and will therefore hike rates on Wednesday.

That fear that the Fed could very well hike rates, even though no rate hike is priced in over at the futures markets, currency traders are not completely sold on no rate hike. And they have decided to buy dollars this morning ahead of the Fed meeting on Wednesday.  I actually tend to believe that this will be a good week for the dollar, given that the Fed does hike rates… IF they decide to leave rates unchanged, then all bets are off on a good week for the dollar!

The euro is down 1/4-cent this morning, after recovering throughout the day on Friday. There were three states in Germany that held elections this past weekend, and all three didn’t go along with Chancellor Angela Merkel’s party, and that news has helped to weaken the euro this morning. In fact, as I look out at the currencies this morning, it appears that most are giving up about 1/4-cent.

There are exceptions to that, as usual. Today, the exceptions include the S. African rand, and Russian ruble, which both are down by larger margins than 1/4-cent.

The Chinese renminbi was allowed to appreciate at the fixing again last night. This appreciation was more in line with what we used to see more often than not. This past weekend China’s Peoples Bank of China (PBOC) Gov Zhou, gave a speech, and I think it would behoove us to listen in.  So with no further ado…

Governor Zhou spoke during China’s annual parliamentary session over the weekend. Key comments were that FX market expectations will normalize soon, there is no need to rush to buy USDs, that he’s unable to forecast if the RMB’s volatility will end, China won’t use major stimulus to reach its economic growth target and will continue prudent monetary policy. Further, he said China would not rely on exports for GDP growth, and will focus on domestic demand instead.

Of course he didn’t wait to see the results of the latest domestic demand numbers before saying all that. Because if he had, he wouldn’t have been so brazen about saying the government wouldn’t rely on exports but domestic demand instead. Chinese January Retail Sales dropped from 10.7% to 10.2% year on year. Industrial Production (IP) dropped from 6.1% to 5.4% annually also in January.

These are key components to domestic demand, and with them dropping, I don’t see how China can meet their lofty goals of 6.5 to 7% GDP for this year. But they’ll try everything allowed to get there, you can bet your sweet bippie on that one!

Well, I’ve been forgetting to check and then include the IMM Futures Positions and I realized that, when I was going through my emails on Sunday. So, here’s the latest scoop from the IMM Futures Positions. USD ($) longs were reduced by 10,000 contracts to 53,000 contracts. Still quite a few long position contracts for the dollar, but seeing it drop by 10,000 gives us some insight as to what the traders are thinking for the week ending March 8.   

The Biggest move was in the AUD (A$), which saw a week to week increase of 12,000 contracts for A$ long positions, and they reached their highest level  since September of 2014. I told you during that week that the “risk sentiment” appeared to have changed for the A$ and kiwi’s benefit, and these positions changes confirm that!

The price of oil has slipped back below $38 overnight, and that has risk sentiment on the back burner this morning. And that also means that the Petrol Currencies are struggling this morning. Mexican pesos, Russian rubles, Norwegian krone, and Canadian loonies are all negative this morning on the slippage in oil’s price.

The Brazilian real hasn’t started trading yet this morning, and this Petrol Currency might find it difficult to see selling take over, due to the news that the impeachment process of Dilma Rousseff is gaining traction. I’ve explained why this impeachment process is helping the real recover value more than a few times before, so I won’t go into that again. But just know that it’s dangerous for these currencies to get so involved in politics.

For instance, with the real, let’s say that Rousseff ends up defeating the impeachment and remains as president of Brazil. The real would get crushed, as all those long positions that were betting on an impeachment get unwound.  It’s just better if currencies stay out of the political process. Unfortunately, it’s too late for the real, it’s all-in on this impeachment process, and has been since the impeachment was just a whispering campaign.

The S. African rand is really taking one to the mid-section this morning… OUCH! That’s going to leave a mark! All the talk of a rate hike at the next S. African Reserve Bank (SARB) this morning, have begun to fade, and now the markets are feeling like there will be no rate hike, and that has really put kyboshes on a rand rally.

This currency is so volatile that you have to be really ready for the wild swings, and that’s why I’ve always thought it better to own rand in a basket with other currencies to water down the rand’s volatility.  For when the rand is good, it’s good, and when it’s bad, it’s bad. Reminds me of a Grand Funk Railroad (RFR) song early in their recording career. When you’re bad your bad, and when you’re good you’re good, but if you’re good, you’ll live forever, and if you’re bad, you’ll die when you die, you’ll die when you die.

I told you above that the price of oil has slipped back below $38 overnight and that was hurting the risk sentiment. But that wasn’t all that was making it even harder to breathe for the risk sentiment currencies of Australia and New Zealand. The weaker domestic data that we talked about above from China is also to blame for the weakness in A$’s and kiwi this morning, although having said that, the A$ is attempting to win back some lost ground as I write.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will print their meeting notes from their last meeting that took place a couple of weeks ago. I think the markets are anticipating reading the notes, due to the fact that the statement following the decision by the RBA to leave rates unchanged, was vague at best. The markets are thinking that they will be able to get a better reading of the pulse of the RBA. I have to step back and look at this differently than the markets. What makes them believe that there will be anything for them to take from the minutes? If I were a betting man, or a trader with deep pockets I would take the opposite side of their position.

Well, did you like the currency of the month article that was posted yesterday in the Sunday Pfennig? It was in your email box early yesterday morning, actually an hour ahead of when it usually posts, because we had to spring forward with the clocks this past weekend! HA! Oh, and the currency of the month was the Singapore dollar.

And right on cue, the Sing dollar is weaker this morning. The move is small, but a negative move nonetheless, which I could have predicted, given that I talked about the Sing dollar yesterday. What is it that I call this? That’s right, grasshopper, it’s the Chuck kiss of death!

Gold is giving back $7 of its value this morning.  And this has to all be tied to the fact that not all traders are on board with the thought that the Fed won’t hike rates this week. Of course, one has to wonder what they are thinking given the fact that since the December rate hike by the Fed, gold has gained more than 19%. So, why would gold traders fear another rate hike by the Fed, given that the first one in nearly a decade only helped gold!

The Daily Reckoning was pushing Jim Rickards new book titled: The New Case For Gold, last Friday, and they had this quote from Jim. “There are only two ways investors know something about gold,” Jim told me at the outset of our partnership. “You either studied economics before 1971,” which Jim did at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies. Or you’ve read an Agora newsletter.”

I read that and I thought. Hmmm… I did neither! I wasn’t old enough to study economics in 1971, and I first I learned about gold was from the Great Hy Minsky. And then years later, it was brought back into my life by the marketing guru, and writer extraordinaire David Galland, and after those two people had pounded the reasons why gold was the real currency into my head, I read about it in the D.R. Back in the days when Addison Wiggin and Bill Bonner wrote the letter from France!

Well, I mentioned the U.S. Data Cupboard above, and brother does it ever get a workout starting tomorrow, and through the end of the week, which will end with everyone having a hangover from the previous night’s celebrations from St. Patrick’s Day! So, I won’t spend a lot of time on the Data Cupboard today, given it will dominate most days this week, with the FOMC meeting on Wednesday as the break for data.

St. Pat’s Day is the day I begin my spring vacation, which will be shorter than usual this year, as I’m only taking a week off of getting up before the farmers and writing. And it just so happens that it coincides when my spring training buddies are here. Then next week, 1/2 of the family will come down, and I get to see my darling little Delaney Grace. She’s such a cutie, and I miss her.

Mr. Bazooka (Mario Draghi) had to be sweating bullets on Friday as his attempt to throw the euro under the bus didn’t really work. I had a dear reader send me a note with a novel idea. He told me that he “viewed Bazooka’s adding Corporate Debt (toxic debt I might add) as hiding it on the ECB’s ledger until everyone forgets about it.” He then went on to say, ” I wish we could run our personal checkbooks that way, transfer the debt to a secret ledger, and forget about it, and then maybe increase it later thinking we’d ‘solve it'”

Now that sounds just like something the government of giving away everything for free would do for us. Go ahead write off that debt, and make believe you never rate it up so high. UGH!

I received an email from an old friend on Friday. Sean Hyman, he of technical trading wizardry! He just wanted to make sure I saw this article that appeared in the Business Insider. Now that’s a publication that I can be sure I won’t get my wrists slapped for sending people to! Here’s the link to the whole article, and here’s the snippet:

Last week, I talked about big changes afoot in the world’s top gold-consuming nation, India. With the government there imposing a surprise sales tax on gold, in an apparent attempt to further curb demand.

And the last few days, things got a lot more serious for the gold market in this critical locale.

One of the immediate effects of the 1% sales tax announced on February 29 was a massive outcry from India’s jewelers. Who launched a full-scale strike on March 2 to protest the levy.

That work action has reportedly brought gold sales in the country to a standstill. With one professional in the Indian refining industry telling Platts on Tuesday that there is ‘no buying anywhere’ across the nation

Chuck again. Well, that wouldn’t be good news for gold. But, the article did go on to say that there were reports that the Indian jewelers were ready to make a compromise with the government in order to get back to work. I sure hope something here can be worked out, because it doesn’t do anyone any good to have things shut down.

That’s it for today. I hope you have a marvelous Monday and that you remember to be good to yourself!

Regards,

Chuck Butler
for The Daily Pfennig

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The post Fed Meeting Highlights Busy Data Week appeared first on Daily Reckoning.

Bail-Ins And Negative Interest Rates, The Ultimate Admission Of Failure....

Posted: 14 Mar 2016 06:16 AM PDT

Mike Hoy writes: ... Cash and Physical Gold, Standing in The Way of a Lifetime of Financial Servitude and Slavery! For the last several decades, the out-of-control growth of US Government spending when combined with the unlimited printing policies of "The Fed" has set the stage for "The Perfect Storm!" Anyone with a simple calculator can easily understand how it is virtually impossible for 320,000,000 people to retire a current and rapidly growing debt of $19,000,000,000,000. This is a sum which equates into $60,000 worth of debt per man, woman and child in the US today. Please ignore the fact that half of the population pays no income tax at all. Forget about the $100,000,000,000,000-$200,000,000,000,000 in future entitlement obligations as only a dreamer could believe this debt has any chance of ever being funded with anything other than more worthless paper!!

Silver Peak Likely Only After Dow Stock Market Crash & Major Bottom

Posted: 14 Mar 2016 04:17 AM PDT

Last year, I produced the following chart and commentary (italics) to show how the Dow could crash like it did in 1929:

Donald Trump: You’re All Violent Communists Now!

Posted: 14 Mar 2016 04:14 AM PDT

According to Donald Trump, as I understand it, Bernie Sanders is responsible for any violence that has or will occur at Trump rallies. Case closed? Bernie is a “Communist”; and his followers are “leftists” who “want to destroy this country!” Case closed? If Sanders folk “don’t get it,” be forewarned: Trump is framing him and you! To silver-hairs within the Trump legion who wear permanent frowns of repressed anger stoked by neo-conservative and “anti-government” propagandists on radio, cable news and the Internet, Bernie Sanders’ “socialism” - which arguably isn’t socialism - is now conflated with Communism – that “great evil empire” whose phantom Mr. Trump has resurrected to revive long-buried hates and fears within his aging McCarthyite and Cold War warriors.

Zero-Hour for the Precious Metals…

Posted: 14 Mar 2016 01:00 AM PDT

Just as the world was breathing a massive and collective sigh of relief that a new bull market in gold and silver had arrived with all the pomp and pageantry of a Royal Wedding, the Barbarians climbed the walls and are now very close to razing the palace, says precious metals expert Michael Ballanger.

Gold and Silver COT Update - Get 30,000 Coffins Ready...

Posted: 13 Mar 2016 09:48 AM PDT

PM Sector longs have had a laugh at our expense over the past couple of weeks as gold has continued to edge higher after we called it down, but it is looking more and more like they will end up like those 4 fools in the classic Clint Eastwood Spaghetti Western, A Fistful of Dollars. Clint rides into a tiny flyblown town and the 4 fools shoot around his mule's feet. After advising the undertaker to Get 3 coffins ready, having made a slight underestimation, Clint returns and challenges the 4 fools by saying "When you apologize to my mule like I know you're going to". Needless to say they do not respond in the required manner to this demand and so Clint quickly dispatches them to the great satisfaction of the undertaker.

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