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Wednesday, July 15, 2015

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China Takes Advice From Mario Draghi. Failure Ensues.

Posted: 15 Jul 2015 01:00 PM PDT

Mario Draghi at the ECB gave us the phrase "whatever it takes". Now the policy chiefs of China are running with it…   Submitted by Tim Price, Sovereign Man: "Nobody knows anything." That was famed Hollywood producer William Goldman's sardonic assessment of the movie business in his classic memoir 'Adventures in the screen trade'. In […]

The post China Takes Advice From Mario Draghi. Failure Ensues. appeared first on Silver Doctors.

It Starts Today: “A Financial Collapse Is Imminent Within This Six Month Time Period”

Posted: 15 Jul 2015 12:00 PM PDT

What we're entering into is a MAJOR turning point…   Submitted by Mac Slavo, SHTFPlan: Over the last six years Michael Snyder of The Economic Collapse Blog has published over one-thousand research papers, articles and reports detailing the financial, economic and monetary crises sweeping the world. While he has often urged his readers to prepare for calamity, […]

The post It Starts Today: "A Financial Collapse Is Imminent Within This Six Month Time Period" appeared first on Silver Doctors.

Here’s why the opening of Iran is a MASSIVE opportunity

Posted: 15 Jul 2015 11:42 AM PDT

From Nick Giambruno, Editor, InternationalMan:

62 years later, the aftermath is still troubling global politics…

Operation Ajax was a pivotal moment in US and world history. It was the first time the CIA overthrew a government.

Yet even today the US government would rather not talk about it. That's why it remains an unknown story for many Americans.

The year was 1953. The objective was to oust Mohammad Mossadegh, the elected leader of the Majlis, Iran's parliament.

Mossadegh was not a communist or a radical Islamist. He didn't follow any objectionable ideology. Instead, he was a secular nationalist. But he was inconvenient.

Like many Iranians, he was proud of his Persian heritage. (Until 1935, Iran was still known as Persia.) Persia once was an imperial civilization, like Rome. Twentieth-century nationalists channeled that glorious past, and they were keen on independence.

So it's no surprise Mossadegh was earnest about ridding the country's politics of foreign influence.

At the time, Great Britain was the most active outside power in Iran.

For decades the British had enjoyed a sweetheart oil deal struck with a former, corrupt Iranian leader. It allowed them to control Iran's petroleum industry and, by extension, the country's entire economy.

To nationalists like Mossadegh, this was intolerable and infuriating. It would be like China getting a sweetheart deal from President Obama for control of the US auto industry. No red-blooded American would stand for such a thing.

It was the early 1950s. The smoke from World War II, a war that killed over 60 million people, still lingered. The horrors were fresh in everyone's mind. Access to oil had been a decisive factor in that war. Had Hitler succeeded in securing his supply in 1942, the world might look very different today.

It was a concept not lost on the British. If any country wanted to win a big war, it needed oil. Lots of it. It was a matter of life and death.

Iran was a major source of oil for the British. Access to it was a strategic military asset of the highest order. One the British would not give up for any price.

Mossadegh understood this. He concluded that the only way to claw back the oil industry was to nationalize it. On May 1, 1951, he did just that. Shortly afterward, he stated:

Another important consideration is that by the elimination of the power of the British company, we would also eliminate corruption and intrigue, by means of which the internal affairs of our country have been influenced. Once this tutelage has ceased, Iran will have achieved its economic and political independence.

The British were not about to give up. They hatched a plot to regain their influence in Iran. But they couldn't do it alone. They would need help from the US. But the US just wasn't interested. So the British undertook a campaign to paint Mossadegh as a communist.

The Brits played America's Cold-War fears like a piano. They convinced the US government that the commies were making inroads in Iran. Given that Iran was just south of the expanding Soviet Union, the story was plausible… but not true.

In the end, it worked. The Americans came on board. Operation Ajax was born. The objective: overthrow Mossadegh's elected government and replace it with something more pliable.

MI6, the UK's foreign spy agency, and the CIA would organize the coup. Kermit Roosevelt, a grandson of former US President Teddy Roosevelt, was the CIA officer in charge.

The goal was to return the monarchy of Mohammad Reza Shah Pahlavi (also known as "the Shah") to power. (In Farsi, the Persian language, "shah" means "king.")

The CIA and MI6 used classic methods of subterfuge. They paid Iranian goons to pose as communists and wreak havoc in Tehran, the Iranian capital, and vandalize its business district. The police couldn't restrain them, and the violence grew.

The coup plotters knew such events would disgust ordinary Iranians, who were fearful of communism. It would cause them to demand action. That action would include the Iranian military stepping in. As part of the plot, the CIA and MI6 had corrupted key Iranian generals for just this moment.

As if on cue, the generals took charge and deposed Mossadegh's government. The Iranian people didn't resist. Instead, they cheered. They thought the military was saving them from a violent communist revolution.

Mossadegh's government was out of the way. The coup's operatives in the Iranian military had seized power. The path had been cleared for the Shah.

The Shah knew he owed his position to the US and UK. What they giveth, they could taketh away. The Shah was more than willing to do whatever the US and UK wanted him to do. Operation Ajax was a success… but it would not be an enduring one.

The Iranian people would eventually figure out what really happened. Many of them would come to despise the Shah as a puppet of a foreign power. To maintain his position, the Shah became more despotic… which only fed the opposition.

In 1979, 26 years after Operation Ajax, a popular uprising overthrew the Shah. A power struggle ensued, and Ayatollah Khomeini's Islamist forces prevailed. The Islamic Republic of Iran was born. This time, it was an anti-American government that came to power. Decades of animosity followed, and it continues to this day.

It's unthinkable to most that the Islamic Republic of Iran could offer any sort of investment opportunity. Many find the mere mention of the country distasteful.

There's another country that most would have considered unthinkable to invest in at one time. Many got hot under the collar just at the mention of its name too: the People's Republic of China.

If you had followed their thinking, you would have missed out on one of recent history's most powerful economic booms. That's precisely why you should ditch the conventional wisdom when it comes to thinking about profiting from Iran. If you don't, you could be letting a once-in-a-generation opportunity pass you by.

Recently, I discussed investing in Iran with legendary investor Jim Rogers. He told us:

I bought Iranian shares in 1993, and over the next few years, [they] went up something like 47 times, so it was an astonishing success.

That was then. Now, additional sanctions make investing directly in Iran off limits to Americans and most Europeans. But that could soon change.

The conclusion of the negotiations on Iran's nuclear program means the economic floodgates will open. Persia will once again be open for business. It would be a big deal: Iran's $370 billion economy is by far the largest still excluded from the international financial system.

Iran has the world's third-largest proven oil reserves (10% of the world's total) and the second-largest proven natural gas reserves (17% of the world's total). A tremendous amount of wealth is waiting to be developed.

Iran's economy is not all about natural resources. The country is home to advanced nanotechnologies and the Middle East's largest car manufacturer. Its young population of 78 million yearns for iPhones and other Western products, and there's enormous built-up demand. That demand is getting ready to explode like Mt. St. Helens.

European and Asian companies have been scrambling to Tehran to line up business deals.

In short, the opening of Iran is a massive opportunity.

Even if the West doesn't lift the sanctions, Iran will simply turn to the East to do business. Either way, the Iranian economy is on course to experience one of the greatest booms in recent history. It's on a scale the world hasn't seen since the opening of China. Opportunities like this don't happen every day, every year, or even every decade.

But for the average American, Iran is at the bottom of the list of potential investment destinations. That's what more than 30 years of hostility and charter membership in the "Axis of Evil" will do.

The sentiment couldn't get any worse. As a contrarian, that's just how I like it. But only if there is a solid reason to believe that the negative sentiment is misplaced. In the case of Iran, I am certain that it is.

In the not-so-distant past, I used to live in the United Arab Emirates… right across the Persian Gulf from Iran. Being there gave me the chance to see the country firsthand.

On the Ground in Iran

Hands down, Iran is the most fascinating country I've ever been to.

I've been to almost every country in the Middle East. Iran stands out for a number of reasons. Unlike most other states in the Middle East, Persia is not an artificial construct. By race, religion, and social history, it is a nation. And European bureaucrats didn't dream up Iran by drawing zig-zags on a map. The map reflects the geographic reality of a country with natural, fortress-like, mountain borders.

For an American, getting there isn't easy. But that's part of the allure.

You can't simply hop on a flight to Tehran from New York, like you would to Vancouver or London. You can't enter the country unless the Iranian government has granted you permission in advance. And they take their careful time.

The US has no diplomatic relations with Iran. There is no Iranian embassy or consulate in the US at which to apply for a visa, but there is an Iranian interests section in the Pakistani embassy in Washington, DC, that can handle such requests. I was living near Dubai at the time, so it was easier for me to go to the Iranian consulate there.

But you can't just drop in to the Iranian consulate and apply for a tourist visa. You have to work with an authorized service to assist you in the process, which is what I did. After I submitted my paperwork and waited a number of weeks, and then waited another couple of weeks, the Iranian government approved my application.

I immediately noticed that the Iranian visa in my passport was not the kind of cheap stamp you often get from Third-World countries. Instead it carried holograms and other anti-counterfeiting features. Things that are associated with documents from developed countries. It was a clue that Iran, a seemingly isolated and underdeveloped place, was more sophisticated than I had expected.

Sanctions have disconnected Iran from the international financial system. Your ATM and credit cards won't work there. You need to bring cash (US dollars or euros work best) and exchange it for Iranian rials. Iranians also have increasingly returned to gold as a store of value and medium of exchange. This is no surprise. People in all corners of the globe have used gold this way for thousands of years.

As soon as my flight landed in Tehran, my Iranian "tour guide" greeted me. The Iranian government requires that minders accompany Americans at all times. It's a result of the Iranian government's not-necessarily unreasonable paranoia. They'd like to prevent Operation Ajax 2.0.

Having a mandatory tour guide wasn't all bad. Mine was a dual American-Iranian citizen named Ali. Ali had spent a lot of time in California and spoke perfect American English. He took me everywhere I wanted to go. At the end of some days, Ali would let me go off on my own. This gave me the chance to explore Tehran's affluent northern suburbs and legendary bazaar.

No matter where I went, everyone was genuinely kind and hospitable… even after figuring out I was American. Not what you would expect for a place known for its "Death to America" chants. It became obvious the average Iranian harbors no hatred for Americans. (For more on what life is really like in Iran, I'd suggest you watch travel writer Rick Steves' video, Rick Steves' Iran.)

The trip to Iran helped solidify my belief that the country is the ultimate contrarian opportunity. It revealed the reality hiding behind the frenzied sentiment of conventional thinking. It was just waiting for the right catalyst. And now that catalyst is at hand. The conclusion of the nuclear negotiations and the relaxation of sanctions will release all the massive, built-up economic potential.

The rationale for profiting from the opening of Iran is clear. Finding a practical way to do so is not. There is a way, however… and a good one. One that is easily accessible through any brokerage account to US investors and is completely legal for them. For all the details click here to check out the latest issue of Crisis Speculator.

School Threatens to Take Kids If Parents Are Late for Pickup

Posted: 15 Jul 2015 11:30 AM PDT

An Oregon school is threatening to "call the authorities" and seize children if parents show up late or drop off kids early.   By Joshua Krause Do you have kids? Do you have a job that you have to commute to? More importantly, do you have to drop your kids off at school every morning? […]

The post School Threatens to Take Kids If Parents Are Late for Pickup appeared first on Silver Doctors.

Why Hillary won’t win the White House

Posted: 15 Jul 2015 11:26 AM PDT

From Bill Bonner, Chairman, Bonner & Partners:

Headlines have been dominated by Greece and China in recent weeks…

These two troubles – one in Europe, the other in Asia – have a similar theme. They are skirmishes in what history may come to see as the Zombie Wars.

On one side: the Fed… the NSA… the CIA… Fannie Mae… Freddie Mac… the trade unions… Wall Street… the dollar… Obamacare… New York’s taxi system… QE… the wars on terror, poverty, illiteracy, and drugs… Dodd-Frank… the TSA… the ATF… millions of retirees and disability scammers… General Motors… Hillary Clinton… and many, many others…

On the other: Airbnb… Uber… cryptocurrencies… “Main Street”… businesses… families… gold… young people… savers… Freemasons… Ron Paul… truck drivers… the Episcopal Church… Elks… entrepreneurs… free markets… and millions of honest people who make their livings and live their lives as best they can without holding a gun to anyone else’s head.

Yes, dear reader, maybe it was too much alcohol or too little food. But in the night, a vision came to us. It revealed the big picture in a way we hadn’t seen it.

Zombies, you’ll recall, are people and institutions that live at the expense of others.

How?

Some are freelance criminals. But most depend on government to get the flesh they need.

People don’t give up their own blood readily. They run. They hide. They try to protect themselves. But government maintains a territorial monopoly on the one thing that does the trick – violence.

So today, we stoop to admire the institution of government. What a beautiful racket! It typically takes 20% to 50% of an economy’s output. It makes the rules. It sets the pace.

And woe to anybody or anything that gets in its way…

Everybody Is a Customer

You can divide an economy into three estates: households, businesses, and government.

Of the three, government is in the best position by far.

Everybody is a customer of the government, whether he wants to be or not. And when you have control of the government, you set the terms of the deals with the other estates. And you can change the terms whenever you want.

That’s why there is so much money in politics – because you can get so much money from politics!

A person can go into government with nothing; he comes out with a fortune.

Dick Cheney, for example, huffed and puffed almost his entire career in politics, except for a brief stint with a crony defense contractor. Now, he’s said to be worth $80 million.

Or Hillary Clinton. She has never had a job in the productive economy. She is said to be worth $21 million.

Successful politicians get the best parking places… the best offices… and other perks and privileges that no one else gets.

Members of Congress also routinely exclude themselves from the rules and regulations they’ve made for others.

For example, it is illegal for U.S. companies to misstate their financial positions; for government it is business as usual. In the private sector, fraud is a crime; in government it is “just politics.”

As to the business community, government has a mixed relationship.

Every business is a source of funds. In addition to the money it gets from taxation, confiscations, and other predations, government also gets bribes in various forms.

A retired Congressman, for example, can look forward to a career as a lobbyist for the industries he promoted while in office. Or he can make money by giving dull speeches to industry groups. He may choose to do a little consulting, too, or haunt the board of directors.

Businesses usually begin as productive enterprises. But almost all have zombie tendencies. Once they reach a certain size, they recognize that the best investment they can make is in politics.

They hire lobbyists. They pay crony politicians.

In return, government enacts rules and regulations to stifle competition. But as with so many of its activities, government succeeds when it fails.

As a new industry arises, the money still flows from the cronies, while the feds get a piece of action from the new enterprises, too.

And households?

They grouse and groan. But the masses usually love government.

They think business people are greedy SOBs. But they often hold the fellows who run the government racket in the same exalted category as saints, TV stars, and sports heroes.

Don’t believe it?

At a recent reception in Baltimore, we noticed people gathered around a familiar face. It wasn’t Baltimore Ravens owner Art Modell; it was former senator Paul Sarbanes.

Just look around Washington… or any major city for that matter. Do you find statues of Henry Ford? Where is the marble bust of Alexander Fleming, discoverer of penicillin? Where is the pile honoring Sam Walton?

Instead, you find plenty of granite spent to honor scalawags and scoundrels – Lincoln, Wilson, and FDR, to name just a few.

And who’s next?

Why Hillary Is a Terrible Candidate

In politics, as in markets, nobody knows anything. But we were seated at dinner last night next to a seasoned political analyst…

“Hillary won’t win the White House,” he confided. “She might not even win the nomination.”

We recall that much of what he said was off record, but we can’t remember which parts. So, we will leave his name out of the Diary; he may have spoken more candidly than he had wished.

“The trouble with Hillary is that she’s a Clinton without Bill’s charm. And she’s yesterday’s news. She couldn’t even beat Obama. And he’s a terrible politician.

“Obama only got elected because of a unique set of circumstances – Hillary and George W. Bush. People were sick of Bush. Hillary is a weak candidate.

“So now we’re seeing other candidates come out. Bernie Sanders is showing us how vulnerable she is. Others will be encouraged. One of them will probably get some traction.

“Jim Webb is not getting any money from the establishment. But he has real appeal to the voters.

“As for the Republicans… Hard to say. I’ve met them all. Rand Paul is smart. But he doesn’t have the funding. Or the political network. He’s too much of an outsider and a maverick to be acceptable.

“The trouble with Ted Cruz is that he is inflexible. He’s very smart and right about a lot of things. But you have to be fairly flexible to get elected president.

“The one I really like is Rick Perry. I know, he sounds like an idiot. But he’s not. They just caught him at a bad moment, when he was on painkillers from dental surgery, or something.

“You remember – he couldn’t recall which department he would abolish if he were elected. It was just a case of brain fog. But it happens to everyone.

“He’s actually very smart… and a good campaigner.”

We’ve never met Rick Perry, so we can’t say either way…

More on Zombie Wars… tomorrow.

Regards,

Bill

Crux note: Bill just released a new video about ATMs running dry and banks shutting their doors. But he's not talking about Greece. He's talking about the U.S. It's a must-see… especially if you don't think that kind of thing can happen here. Watch it now right here.

Recommended Links

Greeks Can’t Tap Cash, Gold, Silver In Bank Safety Deposit Boxes

Posted: 15 Jul 2015 10:50 AM PDT

What good is holding gold and silver in a safety deposit box if your bank won’t let you access it?    Submitted by Mark O’Byrne, Goldcore: – Greek capital controls also prevent access to contents of safe deposit boxes – Restrictions on safe deposit access doesn't protect banking system unless contents confiscated – Readers should […]

The post Greeks Can't Tap Cash, Gold, Silver In Bank Safety Deposit Boxes appeared first on Silver Doctors.

Here’s Why Silver is Being Napalmed Right Now

Posted: 15 Jul 2015 10:45 AM PDT

What is the REAL REASON silver is being Napalmed back to the stone age??? Submitted by The Wealth Watchman: Carpet Bombing This week friends, we take a careful look at the carnage that's transpiring in silver right now. We discuss: One minor prediction I recently made which was incorrect… Another correct prediction which has helped make […]

The post Here's Why Silver is Being Napalmed Right Now appeared first on Silver Doctors.

No 4th of July Terror? FBI Now Claims It Stopped “Several Plots to Kill People in U.S.”

Posted: 15 Jul 2015 10:00 AM PDT

Undoubtedly you heard the loud warnings from government about ISIS terror threats over this past Fourth of July… but it was as harmless as a firecracker.   Submitted by Mac Slavo, SHTFPlan: Undoubtedly you heard the loud warnings from government about ISIS terror threats over this past Fourth of July… kinda spooky, right? But when […]

The post No 4th of July Terror? FBI Now Claims It Stopped "Several Plots to Kill People in U.S." appeared first on Silver Doctors.

Another Comex Oddity

Posted: 15 Jul 2015 09:37 AM PDT

I'd like to draw to your attention today to something that relates to the recent stories of "silver supply tightness". As you know, there is all sorts of anecdotal evidence being reported of retail physical silver supply tightness. I'd like to show you something extremely unusual that may be the first sign of a wholesale supply tightness.

read more

Police State FEMA Camp Warning: “Private Prison Space Is Being Created To House Future Political Dissidents”

Posted: 15 Jul 2015 09:00 AM PDT

The evidence trail that shopping malls, sports stadiums, schools and Walmarts are going to be converted to FEMA camp detention centers is growing by the day.   Submitted by Mac Slavo, SHTFPlan: The following article was originally published by Dave Hodges at The Common Sense Show. Privately Owned Prisons Are Being Converted to FEMA Camps […]

The post Police State FEMA Camp Warning: "Private Prison Space Is Being Created To House Future Political Dissidents" appeared first on Silver Doctors.

Gold Prices Drop $10 to March Lows as US Industry Grows, Feds Yellen Expects Consumer Boost ...

Posted: 15 Jul 2015 08:44 AM PDT

Bullion Vault

Gold & Silver Supply & Demand Report: Shortage?

Posted: 15 Jul 2015 08:40 AM PDT

Unless you really like to trade the bleeding edge of a signal change, you may not want to jump in here. Read on, for the only accurate picture of the supply and demand conditions in the gold and silver markets, based on the basis and cobasis: Submitted by Keith Weiner, Monetary Metals: Last week, we […]

The post Gold & Silver Supply & Demand Report: Shortage? appeared first on Silver Doctors.

AMAZON dot CON: “Black Friday” In July

Posted: 15 Jul 2015 08:30 AM PDT

"Black Friday" in July? Hmmm…this can only mean one thing: AMZN is desperate to generate sales in the face of declining retail sales.   Submitted by PM Fund Manager Dave Kranzler, Investment Research Dynamics: By way  of background, I was a former financial statement auditor for one of the top accounting firms in the Silicon […]

The post AMAZON dot CON: "Black Friday" In July appeared first on Silver Doctors.

How to obtain Silver coins and rounds in short supply

Posted: 15 Jul 2015 07:35 AM PDT

Some bullion investors are wondering if it is go time now. The events in Greece, the stock market sell-off in China, and silver prices falling to near $15/oz spiked demand for manufactured rounds, coins, and bars.

Gold (XAUUSD) Alert: trades below last week’s low as anticipated, keep an eye out for daily closes b

Posted: 15 Jul 2015 07:20 AM PDT

cfdtrading

Two Horsemen of the Apocalypse – Alasdair Macleod

Posted: 15 Jul 2015 07:00 AM PDT

If we can reassign meanings given to the biblical Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse from the original, we can then say financial markets saw two of them this week: Submitted by Alasdair Macleod, GoldMoney: If we can reassign meanings given to the biblical Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse from the original, we can then say […]

The post Two Horsemen of the Apocalypse – Alasdair Macleod appeared first on Silver Doctors.

‘Black Swan’ Taleb Warns “Calm Before The Storm”

Posted: 15 Jul 2015 05:15 AM PDT

gold.ie

Gold ETFs Fail The Volatility Test

Posted: 15 Jul 2015 05:15 AM PDT

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Gold Prices July 15, 2015, Technical Analysis

Posted: 15 Jul 2015 05:15 AM PDT

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Gold Experiences Little Movement Amid Flat Dollar

Posted: 15 Jul 2015 05:15 AM PDT

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A New Paradigm for Control

Posted: 15 Jul 2015 03:03 AM PDT

Some quotes from https://www.quantamagazine.org/20150714-explosive-percolation-networks/ - just replace "D'Souza" or "one" or "we" with "Government" and you might see why I find this article disturbing (my emphasis).




D'Souza wants to learn how to better control complex networks. Connectivity is a double-edged sword, according to her. "For normal operating systems [like the Internet, airline networks or the stock exchange], we want them to be heavily connected," she said. "But when we think about epidemics spreading, we want to curtail the extent of the connectivity." Even when high connectivity is desirable, it can sometimes backfire, causing a potentially catastrophic collapse of the system. "We'd like to be able to intervene in the system easily to enhance or delay its connectivity," depending on the situation, she said.



Explosive percolation is a first step in thinking about control, according to D'Souza, because it provides a means of manipulating the onset of long-range connectivity via small-scale interactions. A series of small-scale interventions can have dramatic consequences — for good or ill.




Public relations professionals often ask how D'Souza's work might help their products go viral. She typically responds by pointing out that her models actually suppress viral behavior, at least in the short term. "Do you want to eke out all the gains as quickly as you can, or do you want to suppress [growth] so when it does happen, more people learn about it right away?" she said.




In other systems, such as financial markets or electrical power grids, when a collapse occurs, it is likely to be catastrophic, and this patchwork approach could be used to reverse the process, breaking up the über-connected system into a collection of disjointed clusters, or "islands," to avoid catastrophic cascading failures. Ideally, one would hope to find a "sweet spot" for the optimal level of intervention.




The next step is to identify signs that may indicate when a system is about to go critical. Researchers understand phase transitions like the ones that happen when water turns to ice, and can identify signs of an impending change. The same cannot be said for explosive percolation. "Once we have a better understanding, we'll be able to see how our control interventions are impacting the system," D'Souza said. "We will have this data we can analyze in real time to see if we are seeing the signature of the early warning signals from many different classes of transitions."

Perth Mint sales surge on back of US Mint shortage

Posted: 15 Jul 2015 02:56 AM PDT

Well it hit us a lot quicker than I thought, with a big increase in demand for our products out of the US and Europe for both gold and silver http://research.perthmint.com.au/2015/07/15/perth-mint-sales-surge-on-back-of-us-mint-shortage/

Gold loans business has lost its glitter

Posted: 15 Jul 2015 01:00 AM PDT

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BULLIONVAULT: Gold Bullion Steady, Volatility Sinks as US Data Weaken

Posted: 15 Jul 2015 01:00 AM PDT

bullionvault

For the first time since August 2009, gold is undervalued

Posted: 15 Jul 2015 12:55 AM PDT

indiatimes

Gold marks time ahead of testimony from Feds Yellen

Posted: 15 Jul 2015 12:55 AM PDT

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The ‘Greek Debt Deal’ Is Already Starting To Fall Apart

Posted: 14 Jul 2015 04:41 PM PDT

Puzzle Pieces - Public DomainThe “deal that was designed to fail” has already begun to unravel.  The IMF, which was expected to provide a big chunk of the financing, has indicated that it may walk away from the deal unless Greece is granted extensive debt relief.  This is something that the Germans and their allies have resolutely refused to do.  Meanwhile, outrage is pouring in from all over Europe regarding what the Greek government is being forced to do to their own people.  Most of this anger is being directed at the Germans, but the truth is that without German money the Greek banking system and the Greek economy will completely and utterly collapse.  So even though Greek Prime Minister Alex Tsipras admits that this is a deal that he does not believe in, he is attempting to get it pushed through the Greek parliament, and we should know on Wednesday whether he was successful or not.  But even if the Greek parliament approves it, we could still see either the German or the Finnish parliaments reject it.  It seems as though nobody is really happy with this deal, and these negotiations have exposed very deep divisions within Europe.  Could this be the beginning of the end for the eurozone?

The Germans appear to believe that they can push the Greeks out of the eurozone and that everything will be okay somehow.  This is something that I wrote about extensively yesterday, and it turns out that a lot of other prominent voices agree with me.  For example, just consider what Paul Krugman of the New York Times had to say about this.  I am kind of amazed that he finally got something right…

Suppose you consider Tsipras an incompetent twerp. Suppose you dearly want to see Syriza out of power. Suppose, even, that you welcome the prospect of pushing those annoying Greeks out of the euro.

Even if all of that is true, this Eurogroup list of demands is madness. The trending hashtag ThisIsACoup is exactly right. This goes beyond harsh into pure vindictiveness, complete destruction of national sovereignty, and no hope of relief. It is, presumably, meant to be an offer Greece can't accept; but even so, it's a grotesque betrayal of everything the European project was supposed to stand for.

Greece desperately wants to stay in the euro, and they desperately want money from the rest of Europe to keep coming in.  At this point, they will agree to just about anything to keep from getting booted out of the common currency.  That is why the Germans and their allies had to make the deal so horrible.  They were attempting to find some way to make things so harsh on the Greeks that they would finally choose to walk away.

And to a certain extent it seems to be working.  Even some members of Syriza are publicly declaring that they are going to vote against this package.  The following comes from the Washington Post…

Greek Energy Minister Panagiotis Lafazanis, who leads a hard-line leftist faction within Syriza, said in a statement Tuesday that the country's creditors had "acted like cold-blooded blackmailers and economic assassins."

Yet he also took indirect aim at Tsipras, calling on the Greek prime minister to reverse himself and tear up the agreement, which he described as a violation of the party's ideals.

Even if Tsipras can pass the deal in Parliament, as he is expected to do, Lafazanis vowed that the Greek people would "annul it through their unity and struggle."

Right now, the vote looks like it could be quite close.  Even though Greek Prime Minister Alex Tsipras has publicly admitted that this is a deal that “I do not believe in“, he is really pushing hard to get the votes that he needs.  In fact, according to Reuters he has been actively reaching out to opposition parties to secure votes…

Having staved off a financial meltdown, Tsipras has until Wednesday night to pass measures tougher than those rejected in a referendum days ago. With as many as 30-40 hardliners in his own ranks expected to mutiny, Tsipras will likely need the support of pro-European opposition parties to muster the 151 votes he needs to pass the law in parliament.

But even if this deal gets through parliament, it is highly questionable whether Greece will actually be able to do what is being required of them.  For instance, the 50 billion euro “privatization fund” seems to be something of a pipe dream…

Privatisation agency Taiped has put out to tender assets with a nominal value of 7.7 billion euros since 2011, but has cashed in only just over 3.0 billion euros, according to 2014 figures.

On June 26 even the International Monetary Fund (IMF), one of Greece’s creditors, raised eyebrows over the idea of raking in lots of money from privatisations.

It stressed that the sale of public banking assets was supposed to raise tens of billions of euros but it was “highly unlikely that these proceeds will materialise” considering the high levels of nonperforming loans in the banking system.

It said that realistically only 500 million euros of proceeds were likely to materialise each year — at which rate it would take around 100 years to reach the 50 billion euro goal.

For the moment, though, let’s assume that the Greek parliament agrees to these demands and that by some miracle the Greek government can find a way to do everything that is being required of them.

And for the moment, let’s assume that this deal is approved by both the German and Finnish parliaments.

Even if everything else goes right, this deal can still be killed by the IMF…

The International Monetary Fund has sent its strongest signal that it may walk away from Greece's new bailout programme, arguing in a confidential analysis that the country's debt is skyrocketing and budget surplus targets set by Athens cannot be achieved, reports FT.

In the three-page memo, sent to EU authorities at the weekend and obtained by FT, the IMF said the recent turmoil in the Greek economy would lead debt to peak at close to 200 percent of economic output over the next two years. At the start of the eurozone crisis, Athens' debt stood at 127 percent.

In order for the IMF to participate in this new Greek bailout, the IMF must deem Greek debt to be sustainable.  And at this point that does not appear to be the case…

Under its rules, the IMF is not allowed to participate in a bailout if a country's debt is deemed unsustainable and there is no prospect of it returning to private bond markets for financing. The IMF has bent its rules to participate in previous Greek bailouts, but the memo suggests it can no longer do so.

But the Germans made it very clear that there would be no bailout unless the IMF was involved.

So what would satisfy the IMF?

The IMF study seems to indicate that massive debt relief for Greece would be required.  The following comes from Reuters…

The study, seen by Reuters, said European countries would have to give Greece a 30-year grace period on servicing all its European debt, including new loans, and a dramatic maturity extension. Or else they must make annual transfers to the Greek budget or accept “deep upfront haircuts” on existing loans.

Needless to say, those kinds of concessions are anathema to the Germans.  There is no way that anything like that could ever get through the German parliament.

But to be honest, the Germans never intended for this deal to be successful anyway.  Just consider what German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schauble told reporters on Tuesday…

German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schauble made clear in Brussels on Tuesday that some members of the Berlin government think it would make more sense for Athens to leave the euro zone temporarily rather than take another bailout.

This is what Schauble and his allies have wanted all along.  This entire “deal” was crafted with the intent of creating conditions under which Greece could be forced out of the euro.

By this time tomorrow, we should know what the Greek parliament is going to do.  However, that won’t be the end of the story.  One way or another, the Germans are going to get their wish.  But once they do, I think that they will be quite surprised by the chaos that is unleashed.

The post The ‘Greek Debt Deal’ Is Already Starting To Fall Apart appeared first on The Economic Collapse.

Precious Metals Video Update: Gold & Silver Prognosis

Posted: 14 Jul 2015 03:22 PM PDT

A look at Gold & Silver's daily charts, comments on Gold's COT and a downside target for gold stocks.

 

The post Precious Metals Video Update: Gold & Silver Prognosis appeared first on The Daily Gold.

Lower your phone bill… This mobile carrier just slashed its monthly fees

Posted: 14 Jul 2015 12:17 PM PDT

From Bloomberg:

T-Mobile US Inc. is cutting prices and increasing data allocations on family plans to challenge larger rivals including Verizon Communications Inc.

For families of two, T-Mobile is offering 10 gigabytes of data to each person for a total of $100, with each additional line costing $20 more, according to a statement. For families of four that sign up through Labor Day, the carrier is offering the fourth line for free, bringing the total to $120. A Verizon plan that includes 40 gigabytes of data would cost $300 plus an additional $60 in access charges for four phones.

T-Mobile's price cut, like its announcement last week to add service in Canada and Mexico to its Simple Choice plan, is aimed at gaining customers and overtaking Sprint Corp. as the third-largest U.S. wireless carrier. Offers including free music streaming and rollover data credits helped T-Mobile gain 2.1 million customers last quarter and put pressure on AT&T Inc. and Verizon to follow suit.

With the new offer, T-Mobile eliminates its two-person, $100 a month unlimited data plan. Verizon, which moved away from unlimited data plans three years ago, was one of the first carriers to introduce family shared-data options.

T-Mobile's 10-gigabyte, per-person offer is the lowest-priced plan of the top four carriers, according to Bloomberg Intelligence. Yet that amount of data is almost four times the 2.4 gigabyte average monthly usage of mobile customers in North America this year, according to ABI Research.

"Our plans match the way customers use wireless service," said Debi Lewis, a Verizon spokeswoman. "Sharing, not only among family members but across devices, is the way wireless works today."

Shares of T-Mobile gained 0.4 percent to $39.43 at 1:43 p.m. in New York. They had risen 46% this year through Monday.

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All eyes are focused on the currency crisis in Greece right now, but an upcoming announcement by the International Monetary Fund could be 10x bigger.  See the currency story no one's talking about, here.

Resource expert: These junior gold miners are well-positioned for the rebound

Posted: 14 Jul 2015 11:53 AM PDT

From J.T. Long, Editor, The Gold Report:

Markets are cyclical and even though it feels like the end of the world after years of junior resource stock market declines, history indicates that bear markets are actually an opportunity to own tomorrow’s superstars for pennies on the dollar. In this interview with The Gold Report, market veteran and Exploration Insights author Brent Cook shares his travel stories and the companies he thinks will shine when the sun returns to commodity prices.

The Gold Report: You recently wrote a piece in Exploration Insights reminiscing about the 1997 to 2002 resource market. What did we learn about investing in gold and silver in that five-year window?

Brent Cook: I first started working for Rick Rule in 1997, just as the last resource bull was dying. The market just kept going down, way below where people thought it could possibly go, and it continued to get worse in 1998, then 1999 and 2000. Eventually it did stop dropping; people started putting money into this sector, and it leveled off.

What I learned is that successful investing in a bear market takes patience and caution. When you do make an investment, make sure you’re betting on good people.

TGR: One of the things Rick Rule always says is that he’s waiting for capitulation. How can you tell if we’ve had capitulation, and what causes it?

BC: I don’t think we’re going to see a capitulation moment; I think it will be more gradual. I see it in my newsletter subscribers. Most of them have been around for a long time, but in the last few months, people who have been with me from the beginning have started falling by the wayside even though we had a 16% gain last year and we are not doing too awfully bad so far this year. They all say they will be back as soon as the market turns. This is what it starts to look like on the bottom.

I envision it as a band of pioneers walking across the salt flats in July, one by one dropping to the side. One day, we’ll turn around, look back and notice the hills are starting to get greener. That’s how we’ll know capitulation happened, by looking behind us at the wasteland and desolation we crossed.

TGR: Rick also says that bear markets create bull markets. The years 2002 to 2010 were pretty good for the commodity markets and everyone started to look really smart. Are there lessons to be learned from a bull market?

BC: There always are. A big one is to take profits along the way and keep some sense of perspective with regards to what a project is actually worth. This is a cyclical business. We go up and down. This has been true going back to the salt traders in early Africa. Supply and demand drive markets. During the last boom, China was building infrastructure and the world was growing. That created a metal shortage, which drove prices way up. That has busted. China’s growth is slowing. I don’t know what’s going to bring the bull market back in commodities this time, but it always comes back and is usually the result of something we were previously unaware of.

TGR: How is the wasteland you describe as our current market scenario different than what you went through in 1997 to 2002?

BC: There are actually more similarities than differences. In 1998 nearly every economist said gold was antiquated and of no value in the new age. Financial publications all said you would have to be a fool in a tin hat to buy gold. Today, investors and financial publications are shunning this market again, and to some degree with good reason. In the most recent boom, profits barely increased due to increased input costs and the shift to mining lower grade ore. That left a lot of investors who got the commodity price rise right disillusioned with the sector. The metal prices rose but profits didn’t. It is going to take a fair bit of time for previous investors or new investors to see a reason to be in the natural resources market. But it will happen.

TGR: Does that hold true both for the retail and the institutional investors?

BC: Yes. Retail investors were hammered in the 1997 downturn. The Bre-X scam triggered the realization that everything was overvalued and much of what was being presented was not true. New NI 43-101 requirements were put in place in an effort to provide more transparency for investors. It certainly helped, but the reality is that a technical report is only as good as the data that goes into it and the persons doing the report. I am afraid a lot of these reports are poorly done and do not reflect reality. People must still do their own due diligence and follow results closely. One of the most common problems I see in these reports relates to the resource estimates. A large number of those turned out to be inaccurate, making the financial models based on them wrong. So investors got burned again, this time believing the final mine economics in the report that may have been based on sloppy resource estimates. When a company spends hundreds of millions buying trucks, building mills and excavating rock only to find out the ore in the ground is not what was presented in the resource estimate, it usually loses money. There is a long list of mines that fall into that category.

TGR: Who are some of the trustworthy veterans still around putting their experience to work in the market now?

BC: Rick Rule, Ross Beaty, Lukas Lundin and Frank Holmes are people I would listen to when they speak. A number of experienced brokers in Vancouver have proved to be smart people. Those people have been through this before and recognize that now is the time to really make money by buying when the market is down. You just have to be patient.

TGR: You’ve traveled the world visiting projects. Do things look rosier in other countries? Has the impact of the strong dollar on projects in Canada and Mexico been good for the bottom line?

BC: Most certainly. The drop in oil and energy prices, as well as the drop in the Canadian dollar, the Australian dollar, and even the euro, has been an advantage to companies operating in those countries versus in the U.S. We have seen a decrease in operating costs. It is a real advantage to companies mining in Australia and Canada, especially.

We have also seen mining companies severely cut back on development, exploration, and even maintenance. This will lead to the next bull market when supply is eventually constrained due to these short-term cost cutting measures. The metal prices are going to have to move up because companies can’t make money right now, and if it isn’t profitable to mine, there will eventually be a shortage.

TGR: In your travels, what are some of the companies that are well positioned for a market rebound?

BC: I like companies that are fully funded and building a mine. That includes Asanko Gold Inc. (AKG), Guyana Goldfields Inc. (GUY) and Torex Gold Resources Inc. (TXG). They’re well positioned to be in production when the market turns.

Further down the line, Dalradian Resources Inc. (DNA), Midas Gold Corp. (MAX) and Continental Gold Inc. (CNL) are drilling out resources that will one day be profitable.

TGR: Asanko just announced plans to combine two of its mines in Ghana. Is that about cutting costs?

BC: I think it was the plan all along. Because the two deposits are so close together, the cost savings in the capital expenditure (capex) on the second mine are substantial. It always made sense to bring that second deposit in as soon as possible to push up production and profitability without too much extra capex.

TGR: The market seemed to like it.

BC: Yes. There are very few companies out there building mines in stable places that people can invest in.

TGR: Continental just updated its resource estimate on the Buriticá project in Colombia. Did you like what you saw?

BC: I did. In the past, I was a bit negative on the company, particularly on the resource estimate because I had some issues with it. The most recent underground sampling pulled together the high-grade center of the deposit. It looks to me that it has enough gold there to really kick off a mine. And the details of what’s happening at depth and along strike will be much better worked out from underground rather than continued drilling. I think it looks pretty good.

TGR: Is Guyana Goldfields still on schedule to start production this year?

BC: Yes, as far as I know. It appears to be on schedule, on budget and moving ahead. It’s funded, moving toward production. There are not many projects out there that are doing that these days. Funding is tough to come by.

TGR: What else have you visited recently?

BC: I just got back from Pilot Gold Inc.’s (PLG) TV Tower project in Turkey. This is a great place to explore. A lot of people have the wrong idea about the country because it is in the Middle East and its president is a bit of a wingnut. But overall, it’s a functioning democracy. I’ve taken my family there on holiday and hope to again. It’s a great place to visit. I also think it’s a good place to work. Some 10 mines have been permitted in 10 years, so you can get things done.

Pilot Gold has a very prolific area of mineralization and alteration offering epithermal and porphyry-style gold and copper potential. This year, Pilot will spend a fair bit of money to drill some of these more interesting targets and Teck Resources Ltd. (TCK) is contributing 40% to the effort. I’m looking for enough drilling to indicate it is actually on to something large. This is a huge alteration system and big deposits come from big systems. All the ingredients are there. We just need to see the drilling confirm it.

I was also just down in French Guiana visiting Columbus Gold Corp.’s (CGT) Paul Isnard project. It’s a joint venture with Nordgold N.V. (NORD), a Russian company listed in London with very profitable gold mines in West Africa. The project has about 4 million ounces all in at about 1.4 grams per ton. There should be a preliminary economic assessment coming out shortly that will give us a ballpark idea of what the costs might be, but there’s still a lot of work to do there. The advantage Columbus has is it’s not spending a dime, and it’s carried for 49% through a feasibility study. It also has a major drill program going at the Eastside project in Nevada. We’ll be watching results on that as well.

Richmont Mines Inc. (RIC) is an old company that recently discovered considerably more value beneath its Island Gold deposit in Ontario. It’s been a decent mine, not great, but recent drilling and underground work have discovered mineralization that’s twice as thick and about twice the grade. The advantage is that the mine is already operating. It has the plant. It has the infrastructure. It just needs to dig down and get it.

This is one of the companies that a major should be looking to take over. It’s in a safe jurisdiction. It’s built and running. We know what it looks like. This would be extremely profitable once it gets into the higher-grade zone at depth.

TGR: Based on what we have learned from the last few cycles, how should investors move forward?

BC: Mining and commodities are cyclical. The most money I ever made was from the stocks I bought in the bust between 1997 and 2002. It was extremely hard to do because it was scary. I would buy a stock and then it would drop by half again. You are all alone and the market gives you no encouragement at all. As I said earlier, we are walking across the wasteland in the heat of the day into a dust storm while nearly everyone you know is back at the ranch buying Apple and biotech stocks. I remember I bought Virginia Gold for $1.50, bought it again at $0.75. It had $0.50/share in cash, and at one point, it was selling for $0.35. Over the following decade or so the stock was acquired for $13 and we are still making money on that by way of Osisko Gold Royalties Ltd. (OR). In retrospect, that was a fantastic buy, but at the time, I was close to giving up all hope. I posted an article on my website titled “What was it like, Dad?” that relives that last bust.

We are in a similar situation now. People have given up all hope. I suspect most of your readers have no desire to buy another junior exploration company, but there are some companies out there that have the cash to survive, strong management that knows what a deposit looks like and the ability to make those discoveries. If you can buy them for near cash, that’s a screaming deal.

TGR: You’re speaking at the Sprott-Stansberry Vancouver Natural Resource Symposium at the end of July. What do you hope attendees will take away from that event?

BC: This bouncing along bottom could go for a long time, but this is the time to start identifying the groups, the managements and the projects that really have a chance at succeeding. You can buy them for a lot less now than you will be able to buy them somewhere in the future. My guess is next year things start to look better, but this takes patience.

TGR: Thank you for your time.

Brent Cook brings more than 30 years of experience to his role as a geologist, consultant and investment adviser. His knowledge spans all areas of the mining business, from the conceptual stage through detailed technical and financial modeling related to mine development and production. Cook’s weekly Exploration Insights newsletter focuses on early discovery, high-reward opportunities, primarily among junior mining and exploration companies.

Silver is closing in on an important ‘buy’ signal

Posted: 14 Jul 2015 11:32 AM PDT

From Brett Eversole, Analyst, True Wealth Systems:

Silver prices are down 68% from their 2011 high. And they’re down 27% over the past year.

But one sign shows silver could be on the verge of a double-digit move higher…

You might not believe it, but there’s more investor interest in silver right now than at any time in history. And this could lead to double-digit gains in silver over the coming months.

Let me explain…

SEE ALSO: Dr. Ron Paul Describes Exactly What America’s Next Crisis Will Look Like

Today, we’re looking at one of our favorite sentiment gauges… But we’re looking at it in a new way.

I’m specifically talking about the Commitment of Traders (COT) report. The COT shows what real futures traders are doing with their money.

You see, when traders all agree on an outcome, the opposite usually happens. Betting against the COT when it hits an extreme level can be a profitable strategy.

We usually look at the COT for a specific group of traders… either speculators or hedgers (who work in an industry and use futures to lower business risk). But today’s sentiment extreme comes from the total number of open futures contracts in the silver market… the so-called open interest.

Just recently, open interest in silver hit its highest level in history. Take a look…

This extreme alone doesn’t make silver a buy. But what happens next could give us an opportunity…

Over the past 15 years, silver has tended to soar when open interest hits a high and then falls.

Specifically, silver has moved higher when open interest has hit a six-month high and then has fallen by 15%. Buying after that has led to hefty returns. Here are the details…

Silver Returns
3 Month
6 Month
1 Year
Open Interest Extreme Buy
15.2%
19.2%
37.8%
All Periods
3.2%
6.6%
14.7%

Now, open interest is hitting all-time highs as I write. So this isn’t a “buy” yet. Open interest needs to fall 15% before this buy signal triggers. This sentiment extreme led to 18 buy signals over the past 15 years. Silver soared 15.2%, on average, over the next three months… and nearly 40% over the next year.

In short, don’t be surprised to see silver prices stay low (or even fall a bit further) before this happens. But once we get our signal, this extreme could give us a great opportunity to own silver. And history shows we could see double-digit returns within just a few months. I’ll be watching it closely.

Good investing,

Brett Eversole

Why cash is the most important asset to own right now

Posted: 14 Jul 2015 10:43 AM PDT

From Bill Bonner, Chairman, Bonner & Partners:

“Cash is king.”

So sayeth the Wall Street Journal, reporting on the situation in Greece.

The use of cash for everyday transactions has increased 44% in the last two months.

A brief update: The Greeks spoke on Sunday. "No," they said. "We don't want the government-spending cuts our creditors are demanding."

Then the finance minister resigned, riding off on a motorcycle.

Today, the Financial Times reports that the Greeks are to be given one "last chance to avoid crashing out of single currency."

Greek output is plunging. The banks are running out of money. And Greeks are lining up at ATMs. The government won't let them take out more than a lousy €60 ($65) a day.

That's what happens: When the going gets tough, the feds take your money.

That's why cash is king.

An Important Breakthrough

A fascinating article recently described how ride-sharing app Uber had "solved the major problem of capitalism."

What is the problem?

"Trust."

There are millions of cars on the road. Most of them have four seats, but only one of the seats is usually occupied. And many of these private drivers would be happy to take you where you want to go, for less than what a taxi would charge.

But you don't get into those cars. You were told as a child never to get into a stranger's car. You don't know which of them you can trust to take you where you want to go.

London's black cabs solve the trust problem with a distinctive design and regulation. Drivers must pass the city's legendary training course, "The Knowledge," to get their license.

When you get into a London cab, you have a high level of confidence that you will get where you are going in a professional manner.

Uber solves the problem of trust in a different way – with an Internet-based rating system. Riders rate drivers out of five stars. Drivers rate passengers the same way. Both avoid folks with poor ratings.

But capitalism made a much bigger breakthrough on the trust front thousands of years ago: It invented cash.

Before modern money, transactions weren't based on barter, as most people believe. Instead, they were based on a system of rudimentary credit.

Without cash, you could trade only in a small group. And you had to rely on memory to recall who owed what to whom.

With the advent of coinage you could trade with people you didn't know. You gave up something. You got something – cash – in return. You could then use this cash to trade for something else later.

This invention – money, usually based on gold or silver – was such a breakthrough, it made today's elaborate market economies possible.

Trust Is Disappearing

But it's only cash if you can put your hands on it.

As the Greeks have just discovered, money in the bank is NOT cash.

Cash is what you need when trust breaks down. With cash, you get optionality, as The Black Swan author Nassim Taleb puts it. With cash in your pocket, you can buy a gallon of gasoline or a share in a public company. It's yours. You can do what you want with it.

But cash in the bank?

You don't know. You have to trust that the system works… that the bank is solvent… and that it will give you back your money when you want it.

Trust is rapidly disappearing in Greece. The Germans don't trust the Greeks. The Greeks don't trust the banks. Almost nobody trusts the government.

What a great show! And very instructive.

Cash is king in China, too. Chinese stocks recently paused after a three-week crash.

The government is doing all it can, say the state-run newspapers. But investors are wondering: Can they trust the Chinese feds to stem the bleeding?

A Hong Kong-based fund manager is quoted as saying: "I believe the Communist party still has the final say over the stock market, even nowadays."

But wait, if government could stop market corrections, why do we ever have them?

We don't know. But there are times to trust… and times to distrust. There are times to own financial assets. And there is a time to own cash.

This seems like a good time for cash…

Regards,

Bill

Crux note: Bill just released a new video about ATMs running dry and banks shutting their doors. But he's not talking about Greece. He's talking about the U.S. It's a must-see… especially if you don't think that kind of thing can happen here. Watch it now right here.
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