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Monday, November 3, 2014

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Crude Oil Price War Stirring?

Posted: 03 Nov 2014 12:53 PM PST

I sure think so... What I am referring to is the move by Saudi Arabia to CUT its oil price for oil sold to the US while raising its price to other countries, notably in Asia.

There are some analysts who are downplaying the move as only an attempt by the Saudis to maintain US market share but I think not. I think they are going after the US shale industry.

This is rather interesting if you ask me because of the impact on Russia as well.

Either way, the cut in price by the Saudis has oil traders thinking along a common line right now and that is burgeoning supplies. Economic growth is just too slow to burn through all of the oil that is accumulating.

The impact of falling energy prices should not be underestimated. It does two things:

1.) It benefits consumers and businesses with heavy energy usage such as those in the Transportation sector
2.) It harms the one bright spot in the US economy, namely the energy industry and the companies associated with production, exploration and service to some extent.

I might also mention something more along the psychological front - it feeds the DEFLATION psyche. Look at the plunge in the commodity indices today. Given that sort of environment, gold is going to continue to fall out of favor. Why buy a metal that throws off NO yield in an environment in which commodity prices in general are heading lower?

Here is a chart of crude oil...The black liquid hit a 2+year low today.


If it breaks the support level noted on the chart, we could see another $2.50 break lower from current levels. I also want to remind the reader that based on the most recent Commitments of Traders report, large speculators still remain heavily long in this market by a more than 3:1 ratio.



Just like they are in gold, they are caught on the wrong side of a plunging market meaning the resulting money issues at work will tend to keep the price depressed as rallies are viewed by losing sides as opportunities to get out and cut their burgeoning losses somewhat. It is all about reducing the pain at this point.


Zeal: Canadian Golden Elephant

Posted: 03 Nov 2014 12:30 PM PST

Elephants are the world's largest land animals.  And though there aren't many, they can still be found scattered across the planet.  In the mining industry, super-large-sized deposits are often referred to as elephants.  Like the animal, these deposits aren't all that common.  But also like the animal, they can still be found.   Submitted by […]

The post Zeal: Canadian Golden Elephant appeared first on Silver Doctors.

Gold term structure

Posted: 03 Nov 2014 12:02 PM PST

July 10, 2014 marked the recent peak in the spot gold price at $1,347 per ounce. That price was, however, 3.2% below the March high for the year (so far) of $1,391.

A Sunny Silver Forecast: Low Price Today Means High Price Tomorrow

Posted: 03 Nov 2014 11:34 AM PST

Solar power has been the next big thing in energy for as long as most people have been alive. But it was always too expensive to be anything more than a niche technology, attractive more for its coolness than its efficiency. That has changed, in a big way.

According to a report by Deutsch Bank, generating electricity from sunlight is now as cheap as getting it from coal in most US states when current subsidies are included. Extrapolate the inexorably-falling cost of solar just a few more years, and the subsidies won’t be necessary.

At that point the floodgates will open, with every homeowner in the US sunbelt and pretty much every other warm part of the world slapping solar panels on their rooftops and happily watching their meters run backwards. According to a new report by the International Energy Administration, between now and 2050 solar’s share of global electricity production will rise from the current 1% to 27%, making it humanity’s single largest power source.

That’s great news for climate change, air quality and West Virginia (where they won’t have to blow the tops off of so many mountains to get coal). But the point for silver? Well, every traditional silicon solar panel uses a bit of silver paste to conduct electricity out of its constituent solar cells. And among the other cost cutting measures solar panel makers have been pursuing lately is a reduction in the amount of silver they use. Some alternatives have been found, but none are worth the trouble at current low silver prices. And presumably further research has become less urgent relative to immediate challenges like raising efficiency and lowering installation costs.

So silver is unlikely to be supplanted in this generation of solar panels, which means demand from the solar industry is going to soar along with panel installations. Here’s how a recent Forbes Magazine article does the math:

Trends In Silver Demand By The Solar Photovoltaic Industry


Approximately 20 grams of silver are used in each crystalline silicon solar panel, which accounts for around 85% of the total market. Roughly 80 metric tons of silver or approximately 2.8 million ounces of silver are needed to generate approximately 1 Gigawatt of solar power.

Growth in Installed Solar PV Capacity
Globally, installed solar capacity stood at 139 GW at the end of 2013. Installed solar capacity has risen exponentially from a paltry 1.3 GW in 2000. Most of this growth in installed capacity in the past has come from Europe, particularly Germany, with favorable government policies facilitating the incorporation of a greater share of renewable energy into the country's energy mix. Europe accounted for around 75% of global installed solar PV capacity in 2010. However, the pace of new installed capacity in Europe is expected slow down due to a reduction in incentives for PV installations in some major markets, such as Germany.

The growth in installed solar PV capacity will be driven by China in the years to come. China is making a concerted effort to reduce its dependence on coal as a source of energy. The country is targeting 70 GW in installed solar capacity by 2017, as compared to 18.6 GW in 2013. Thus, China's thrust on solar energy will provide the impetus for growth in solar PV capacity additions.

As per European Photovoltaic Industry Association estimates, by 2018, cumulative installed PV capacity will grow to 430 GW in an optimistic scenario and 321 GW in a pessimistic scenario. The incremental PV capacity addition in 2018 is expected to be 69 GW in the optimistic scenario and 39 GW in the pessimistic scenario. If we consider an intermediate scenario where installed capacity grows to about 375 GW by 2018, it represents a compounded annual growth rate of about 22% from the 139 GW in installed solar capacity in 2013. This will correspond to roughly 54 GW in incremental solar PV capacity addition in 2018.

Silver Demand from PV industry
If we assume that over the next five years, crystalline solar silicon panels will continue to account for roughly 85% of the market, then these will account for approximately 38 GW in installed capacity in 2014 and around 46 GW in installed capacity in 2018.

Taking into account that roughly 2.8 million ounces of silver are required to generate 1 GW of solar power, the demand for silver translates into roughly 106 million ounces and 151 million ounces in 2014 and 2018 respectively. To put this into perspective, global silver mine production is expected to be roughly 800 million ounces and 750 million ounces in 2014 and 2018 respectively. Mine production accounted for roughly 75% of silver supply in 2012. If we assume that this ratio holds till 2018, overall silver supply will stand at roughly 1.07 billion ounces and 1 billion ounces in 2014 and 2018 respectively. Assuming a balanced market in which supply matches demand, the demand for silver from the solar PV industry will rise from 10% of the total demand for silver in 2014 to around 15% in 2018.

And even this might understate the case. The above formula assumes declining mine supply, but — another effect of the recent silver price smash to below current mining costs — the falloff might actually be far steeper. From mining analyst Andy Hoffman:

Kamikaze Attack and the End of Mining

And now, for the main event – and perhaps, the denouement of the most vicious paper precious metals raids since 2008. Gold and silver prices are now so far below their actual costs of production, both cash and sustaining, that my recent estimate of a 25%+ drop in global PM production is likely far more imminent than inevitable.

Combine soaring solar demand with falling mine output and it’s possible that solar panels will consume 20% of available silver in 2018 (again, up from virtually zero a decade ago) and that this trend won’t begin to flatten until a much higher silver price boosts production and scales back solar demand.

Alasdair Macleod: China’s Gold Strategy

Posted: 03 Nov 2014 11:30 AM PST

China’s reasons for accumulating gold. We now know that China had the resources from its trade surpluses as well as the opportunity to buy bullion. Heap-leaching techniques boosted mine output and western investors sold down their bullion, so there was ample supply available; but what was China’s motive? Submitted by Alasdair Macleod, GoldMoney:  China first […]

The post Alasdair Macleod: China's Gold Strategy appeared first on Silver Doctors.

Pricing Gold in the Real World

Posted: 03 Nov 2014 10:20 AM PST

As we see the price of gold and silver dragged lower once again in our Hostage Markets; a reality-check is badly needed – since we certainly get no reality from the Corporate media. However, while the mainstream media provides no "reality", it does provide consistency.

As any knowledgeable reader already knows; gold (and silver) is both a commodity and a "monetary metal" (i.e. real money). With respect to the perverse reporting of the Corporate media; the pattern has been unequivocal. Whenever it has some bearish fiction to distribute about the monetary fundamentals of gold; it treats gold as a monetary metal. And whenever it has some bearish fiction to distribute about the commodity fundamentals of the gold market; it treats gold as a commodity.

This relentless "heads I win/tails you lose" reporting is more than just biased and annoying. It is nonsensical. This point was made in a previous commentary, approximately a year and a half earlier. It revolved around a quote taken from the heart of precious metals propaganda: Basher Central – aka "Kitco News".

"$1,300 is not a sustainable gold price."

What makes this mainstream quote of particular significance is that at the time it was made, gold was trading at $1389.60 (as noted in the article itself). With most gold miners claiming "all in" production costs of between $1100 and $1250/oz; what motivated the assertion that $1,300/oz was (is) an unsustainable price in the gold market?

It's because contrary to the claims of the miners themselves; the "all in" cost of production they quote in their news releases/financial reports is not really the total cost of producing an ounce of gold. In the case of the senior gold miners (who produce the majority of the world's newly-mine gold); these bloated behemoths do little actual exploration for gold themselves.

Rather; they rely upon the junior "exploration" mining companies to find most of the world's significant deposits, and once these junior explorers find a large deposit (generally 5+ million ounces) these larger miners swoop in to buy these deposits, and often the junior miner, itself.

These significant "acquisition costs" are not factored into the supposed "all in" costs of production. But that is only part of the reason why the price of gold has to be significantly higher than these "all in" production costs, in order for the gold mining industry (and thus the gold market itself) to be sustainable.

In many industries; they can be sustained (indefinitely) by break-even prices for the good they produce. Shareholders may not be happy, but the companies do manage to stay in business. Not in the mining industry.

Gold slump unnerves investors

Posted: 03 Nov 2014 10:19 AM PST

Investors are losing confidence Canadian gold miners will be able to weather the metal wallowing at a four-year low without damage to their credit ratings.

Ted Butler: The Silver Nightmare Will Be Over Soon

Posted: 03 Nov 2014 10:00 AM PST

Last week was downright horrific for precious metals owners.  Hours after silver broke below $16/oz, Peak Prosperity’s Chris Martenson recorded this MUST LISTEN interview with silver expert Ted Butler on the causes of the prolonged abuse in the the precious metals sector, and how close we may be to its end. Butler zeroes in on […]

The post Ted Butler: The Silver Nightmare Will Be Over Soon appeared first on Silver Doctors.

The Silver Nightmare Will Be Over Soon

Posted: 03 Nov 2014 09:14 AM PST

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Last week was downright horrific for precious metals owners. Hours after silver broke below $16/oz, Chris Martenson recorded this interview with silver expert Ted Butler on the causes of the prolonged abuse in the the precious metals sector, and how close we may be to its end. Butler zeroes in on the heart of the issue: unfairly concentrated positions within the derivatives market.

Access the full interview here

Japanese Yen Succumbs to BOJ Wishes

Posted: 03 Nov 2014 08:41 AM PST

It is no secret that the monetary authorities, as well as the political leaders of Japan, want to see a weaker Yen. The current Japanese leadership is desperately trying to stave off a deflationary wave that has held the nation in its iron-fisted grip now for what seems like an eternity.

The entire idea behind the attempts to take their currency lower on the crosses is to ramp up inflationary pressures associated with a falling currency ( that is a subject matter that requires a post of its own ) and to somehow turn the Velocity of Money higher by getting people to spend now and incur more debt now rather than wait for lower prices to spend later.

The Yen is therefore one of those LONG TERM macro trades that many hedge funds are interested in playing ( much to the delight of the Japanese leaders). It has however been an extremely difficult trade at times to remain in if one is short simply because the Yen can experience some violently sharp rallies anytime there is a rush away from risk and into safe havens.

With ultra-low interest rates in place as far as the eye can see, and with a clear signal from the authorities there in Japan, the temptation to use the Yen as a funding currency for a highly leveraged CARRY TRADE is just too great to pass up by some very powerful speculators.

However this huge macro trade will see very swift reversals whenever FEAR RISES or equities plunge. The size and scope of those carry trades is enormous but the fact that they are heavily leveraged means that losses can quickly accrue if the leveraged positions move the other way. As a result, one will see the yen shoot up rapidly when stocks are selling off. That is simply the sign that the carry trade is being unwound during that time period.

For the trader who is interested in catching a trend, this currency is one that looks to be firming up and asserting itself once more but one must understand , and be prepared, that any of these "risk aversion" episodes can punish you quite severely.  It is therefore not for the faint of heart nor for the poorly capitalized trader.




I have noted some technically significant levels on the long term monthly chart. As you can see, the Yen has plunged rather dramatically the long two months and has begun the trading month of November down sharply as well. But look at the big spike it made in last month's trade before closing out on the lows last week. It was a 500 point move ( please note I am using CME reporting and not the usual Forex reporting and I have dropped out the decimals). That is very tricky to sit through if you are short and are watching "your life passing in front of your eyes" type short covering rallies.

The plunge in September took it down through chart support which was followed by a rally back up to that broken support level ( that then served as resistance) followed by a plunge lower. As you can see on the chart, the Yen can make some rather steep, unidirectional moves at times so the idea of "overbought" or "oversold" are not especially applicable when it comes to this currency.

Here is the one of the things to note about this - the Yen comprises almost 14% of the weighting of the USDX. While obviously not near as great a weighting as the Euro, continued weakness in the Yen does tend to feed into the current trend of a stronger Dollar.

A stronger Dollar here in the US tends to have a deflationary impact on commodities and serves to keep inflation at bay. I said all this to say that a weaker yen may very well tend to feed weaker gold prices here in the US.


What Greenspan’s Latest Talk Means for Gold

Posted: 03 Nov 2014 08:30 AM PST

Former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan was the keynote speaker at last week’s New Orleans Investment Conference. When questioned as to why he left his Austrian roots, Greenspan claimed he has always remained true to Austrian economics and the principle of sound money. He fell into his role as Fed Chairman purely by accident, he claimed, […]

The post What Greenspan's Latest Talk Means for Gold appeared first on Silver Doctors.

QE pushes down gold, silver

Posted: 03 Nov 2014 07:45 AM PST

The U.S. economy is deemed to have recovered artificially. Unemployment has stabilized and investors' confidence has picked up, but warning signs littered through the tunnel.

Swiss Gold Referendum: Latest Polls

Posted: 03 Nov 2014 07:28 AM PST

According to the latest polls, 38% of voters would support the Swiss gold initiative and 47% are against it. The previous poll,recognized as more reliable, showed 45% pro gold and 38% against...

Read

Russia's new gas exchange could lead to energy pricing outside the dollar

Posted: 03 Nov 2014 07:26 AM PST

Known as the St. Petersburg International Mercantile Exchange (SPIMEX), this trade facility will allow for international and domestic gas operations to sell their products in Russia and in a centralized location, and will become part of the growing Eurasian Economic Zone that is emerging in the East as global trade moves away from the dollar and away from U.S. hegemony...

Read

China launches direct trade between yuan, Singapore dollar

Posted: 03 Nov 2014 07:23 AM PST

China on Monday announced direct trading between the renminbi and Singapore dollar beginning Tuesday, marking another step toward internationalizing the Chinese currency...

Read

Where is Swiss gold?

Posted: 03 Nov 2014 07:18 AM PST

The Swiss referendum on monetary gold approaches on Nov. 30, one aspect of the debate continues to focus on the need, or otherwise, for the Swiss National Bank to continue to store a percentage of the Swiss gold reserves abroad.

Indian gold premiums not ready to fall

Posted: 03 Nov 2014 07:08 AM PST

The unwinding festive season demand in India is most unlikely to affect the physical gold premiums in the country.

U.S. MINT SILVER EAGLES: Record Demand On Manipulated Low Paper Price

Posted: 03 Nov 2014 07:00 AM PST

Investors snatched up a record number of Silver Eagles as the paper price was manipulated to new lows today.  This is a very strange market phenomenon, as several "Official" analysts forecasted a drop or sell-off of physical metal if the price continued to decline. In just the past two days, investors purchased more than 1.4 […]

The post U.S. MINT SILVER EAGLES: Record Demand On Manipulated Low Paper Price appeared first on Silver Doctors.

Metals market update for November 3

Posted: 03 Nov 2014 06:58 AM PST

Gold and silver were both sharply down for the week at 4.78% and 5.99% respectively. Gold fell $26.30 or 2.2% to $1,172.40 per ounce Friday and silver slid $0.33 or 2% to $16.16 per ounce.

Chinese unmoved by gold price drop, see it cheaper still

Posted: 03 Nov 2014 06:55 AM PST

Even with gold prices dropping, Chinese buyers aren't tempted, suggesting prices have further to fall.

Where is Swiss gold? Location, location, location

Posted: 03 Nov 2014 06:51 AM PST

Ronan Manly, from Goldcore, dissects data on Swiss gold and the question of its location.

India cuts precious metals tariff as prices slide

Posted: 03 Nov 2014 06:51 AM PST

The Indian government today announced cut in import tariff value for gold and silver.

Swiss gold bugs: Careful what you wish for

Posted: 03 Nov 2014 06:47 AM PST

Mark Gilbert argues the Swiss need to be mindful of the likely consequences of locking a fifth of their wealth away in a bullion vault.

India's largest gold loan company ventures into retail recycling

Posted: 03 Nov 2014 06:43 AM PST

Muthoot Exim, the precious metals division of the leading gold financing company in the country, has announced its decision to foray into retail gold recycling business.

Is There More Downside In The Price Of Gold?

Posted: 03 Nov 2014 06:09 AM PST

Perhaps this weekend's New York Marathon got traders pumped up, because markets are off to a blistering start to the trading week. US equity futures are pointing to an open at all-time highs, EURUSD hit its lowest level in over two years, USDJPY is testing a 7-year high, and Gold has dropped to its lowest level in 4.5 years.

Focusing in on the yellow metal, there is no obvious single catalyst for the big drop. Of course, the persistently strong dollar has played a big role, as has last week's solid US economic data, which decreased safe-haven demand for gold. In addition, traders pulled $1.3B from gold ETFs, showing that sentiment toward gold is also souring.

On a technical basis, prices dropped through key previous support at 1180 last week, confirming the breakdown from an 18-month descending triangle pattern. At the same time, the weekly MACD indicator is edging lower below both the signal line and the "0" level, while the RSI indicator has still not reached oversold territory, suggesting the commodity may have further to fall this week.

If the breakdown from the descending triangle pattern is indeed valid, it would point toward an eventual move down equal to the height of the triangle, or around $250-$300 dollars, over the next couple of years. More immediately though, bears will want to see whether previous support at 1180 becomes resistance this week, as well as if the metal can break below its longer-term Fibonacci retracement level at 1155. Meanwhile, a recovery back above 1180 early this week could point to a more extended bounce, though the longer-term bias would still remain to the downside.

gold price weekly chart 3 november 2014 price

 

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My stock picks in face of financial crash - Moriarty

Posted: 03 Nov 2014 06:07 AM PST

The last man standing may be gold when the next financial crisis hits, Bob Moriarty predicts in an interview with The Gold Report.

Where Is Swiss Gold? – Location, Location, Location

Posted: 03 Nov 2014 06:02 AM PST

gold.ie

Where Is Swiss Gold? – Location, Location, Location

Posted: 03 Nov 2014 05:51 AM PST

Where Is Swiss Gold? – Location, Location, Location
by Ronan Manly, GoldCore Consultant

- Introduction
- SNB Continues To Intervene In Politics
- Swiss National Bank initial reaction to gold initiative
- Swiss gold at the US Federal Reserve
- "Stocks that were once at the Federal Reserve have been sold"
-
Swiss gold at the Bank of Canada, Ottawa
- 1,300 tonnes of gold sold: SNB's Michael Paprotta
- SNB's Paprotta Interview
- SNB's Paprotta view on Swiss gold held in London
- Conclusion

Introduction
The Swiss referendum on monetary gold approaches on 30 November, less than four weeks, one aspect of the debate continues to focus on the need, or otherwise, for the Swiss National Bank (SNB) to continue to store a percentage of the Swiss gold reserves abroad.

SVP National Councillor, Lukas Reimann (SG) speaking at the launch of the Gold Initiative Committee's press conference in Bern, 23 October 2014

One of the three objectives of the gold initiative is to have all Swiss gold stored in Switzerland. The Swiss central bankers and the 'no' campaign maintains that it's imperative to maintain foreign gold storage at major gold trading centres that can be quickly traded in the event of a financial crisis. While the 'yes' campaign counters that this argument is redundant and that it is far safer to have Switzerland's gold stored in Switzerland during a financial crisis.

For example, Luzi Stamm, an SVP politician of the 'yes' campaign, said recently that there is 'no compelling reason' to store Swiss gold abroad, while Thomas Jordan, chairman of the governing board of the Swiss National Bank maintains that it's easier to activate foreign held gold in a financial emergency if its stored at a major gold trading hub.

Within this aspect of the debate, it's therefore critical to look at where the foreign held Swiss gold is actually stored – with the Bank of Canada and Bank of England and in what form it may be stored – earmarked or unallocated.

It is also important to examine where the substantial Swiss gold sales in the early 2000s took place from – which included Swiss gold holdings that were stored at the US Federal Reserve Bank.

SNB Continues To Intervene In Politics
The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continued to enter the debate this week about Switzerland's upcoming gold initiative, despite the SNB not normally entering into any political debates and discussions.

In an interview with Swiss newspaper NordWestSchweiz published on 29 October, SNB board member Fritz Zurbrügg said that while the SNB is usually very reluctant to comment on Swiss initiatives and referenda, on this occasion the central bank feels that they need to intervene[1].

 Historic shot from Bank of Canada, Ottawa – Gold Vault (Source: Library and Archives Canada)

In the SNB's view, the gold initiative is an exceptional issue since, if it passes, it will have a direct impact on the activities of the SNB and will prevent the Bank from fully following its mandate in terms of monetary and investment policy.

In a tactic similar to that used by the recently formed anti 'gold initiative' political campaign (http://www.goldinitiative-nein.ch ), Zurbrügg attempted to connect the SNB's gold holdings to the financial budgets of the Swiss cantons by highlighting that if gold holdings rose as a percentage of the SNB's balance sheet, then a fall in the gold price could reduce distributable income to the Swiss Federation and the cantons, and that additionally gold also does not pay any interest or dividends.

Zurbrügg stated that "a high gold content does not guarantee currency stability", and he re-introduced the argument that with the gold initiative calling for at least 20% of central bank reserve assets to be held in gold, that this gold cannot be sold and is therefore useless in a financial crisis.

This statement, that gold which cannot be sold becomes useless in a financial crisis is not factually correct. Many central banks in the past have either swapped monetary gold for US dollars as a way of raising dollar liquidity, for example the Swedish Riksbank in 2008[2], or used monetary gold as collateral to obtain US dollar loans during a crisis.

The World Gold Council (WGC) even has an entire team of staff dedicated to assisting and encouraging central banks to manage and optimise gold as part of their reserve portfolios, and the WGC regularly runs courses for central bank staff explaining how gold can provide liquidity and stability to central bank reserve portfolios.
In an argument for holding gold abroad, Zurbrügg said that an emergency supply of gold needs to be in 'major gold trading centres' of which he claimed both London and Ottawa to be 'major gold trading centres'. That's notwithstanding the fact that Ottawa has not been a major gold trading centre for many years.

One interesting question from the newspaper journalist to Zurbrügg that's worth repeating was that when Zurbrügg was asked "How often does the Swiss National Bank inspect and check that the Swiss stocks (foreign held gold) are actually on site?", he replied "I can say only this much: There are regular visits. The gold bars are numbered and identified at all times."

According to a report in the Swiss newspaper 'Tages Anzeiger' on 7 October, when Muzi Stamm's gold initiative campaign team submitted their initiative to the Swiss Federal Chancellor in March 2013, the campaign founders had claimed that "almost half of the Swiss gold reserves were stored abroad – much of it in the United States", and that it was specifically this claim that prompted the SNB to then reveal In April 2013, for the first time, that the Swiss gold reserves were 70% stored in Switzerland, 20% in England and 10% in Canada[3].

If there had, at some time, been almost half of Switzerland's 2,590 tonnes of gold held abroad, much of it in the US, then there would have been approximately 1,300 tonnes of gold stored abroad, much of it in the US.

Swiss National Bank initial reaction to gold initiative
On 26 April 2013, just over a week after the Federal Chancellor had confirmed the validity of the gold initiative signature count and the wording of the gold initiative referendum, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) appeared to be panicked, since, at its general shareholders meeting, the Bank's chairman of the governing board, Thomas Jordan spent over half his speech (4 entire pages of a 7 page speech) attempting to defend the Bank's approach to its gold holdings.

Jordan began by disparagingly referring to the gold initiative as the 'so-called gold initiative' when in fact, 'gold initiative' forms part of the popular initiative's official title, as confirmed by the Federal Chancellor Corina Casanova in her statement the previous week.

Jordan also attempted to dilute the gold initiative's goal of repatriating foreign stored gold reserves by defending the strategy of keeping gold stored outside Switzerland, and by also revealing the locations of the foreign held gold.

Attributing the location revelations to the fact that "the SNB is aware that there has been a growing need for transparency in our population in the last few years", Jordan went on to say that of the 1,040 remaining tonnes of Swiss gold, 'more than' 70% was stored in Switzerland, 'roughly 20%' was stored at the Bank of England and "approximately 10%" was stored at the Bank of Canada. He also stated that "the SNB has been storing gold exclusively in these countries for over ten years", which would imply that there had not been any Swiss gold stored in the US since as early as late 2002.

On the subject of why the SNB stored some of its gold abroad, the SNB chairman stated that "it ensures that the SNB can in fact access its gold reserves, especially in an emergency". Jordan also attempted to reassure those who might be concerned about whether the foreign held gold was there at all by stating "our partner central banks keep clearly identifiable gold bar holdings for the SNB. Each bar stored abroad has a bar identification and remains the property of the SNB. The availability of our gold holdings is fully guaranteed at all times."[4]

Swiss gold at the US Federal Reserve
On 7 October 2014, in further reaction to the gold initiative in the run-up to the referendum, the SNB released a 'media dossier on gold' question and answer format, with this document only being available in French and German[5].

In the media dossier, the SNB answers some interesting questions about the locations and former locations of Switzerland's foreign gold holdings, and reveals that Swiss foreign gold had included gold that was in custody with the US Federal Reserve, but that this gold had been completed sold as part of the Swiss gold sales. Since all foreign gold in the custody of the US Federal Reserve is held in the gold vaults of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, the SNB are referring to the this gold account held at the FRBNY vault, sometimes referred to as the 'Banque National Suisse' gold account.

Given that the SNB's Thomas Jordan had said in April 2013 that the SNB had for over 10 years exclusively stored its non-domestic gold with the Bank of England and Bank of Canada, this implies that the Swiss gold stored at the Federal Reserve would have had to have been completely sold prior to at least early 2003 if not earlier.

SNB Q: Since when has the SNB not stored additional gold in the United States? Were these (gold) stocks sold or repatriated?
SNB A: "The SNB stores 30% of its gold reserves abroad: 20% is stored in the Bank England, and 10% in the Bank of Canada. For over ten years, the SNB stores its gold reserves only in these two countries.

Stocks that were once at the Federal Reserve (Fed) have been sold."
The SNB also reveals that most of the 1,550 tonnes of Swiss gold sold from 2000 to 2008 was from gold holdings held abroad. These sales of gold held abroad also undermine the arguments of the SNB and associated politicians who claim that foreign held gold is more valuable in a time of financial crisis than gold stored in Switzerland. If the approximate 700 remaining tonnes of gold now held by the SNB in Switzerland was not as important as the large quantities of gold held abroad, then why were the gold holdings that were held aboard sold and not the gold that was held domestically?

SNB Q:Are we sure that the SNB gold stored abroad is still available?
SNB A: Partner central banks store bars clearly identifiable like those of the SNB. Each ingot stored abroad is inventoried with an identification number; it remains at all times in the stock of the National Bank and remains the property of the SNB. Gold sales that occurred in the past have largely focused on stocks held abroad. They showed that gold stocks are available at any time.

The above two facts, and the claim by the gold initiative organisers that most of the foreign held gold was held in the US, reveal that the SNB had held significant gold at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and that most of the gold sold by the Swiss in the 1,550 tonne gold sales was sold from stocks held abroad, including significant quantities of Swiss gold sold out of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York vaults.

Former head of the SNB Philipp Hildebrand stated in 2005, when commenting on the 2000 – 2005 Swiss gold sales, that 730 tonnes of these sales had been done on the spot market between 2001 and 2004, and that "typically, the Bank of England was used for the physical settlement of these operations[6]"

This does not necessarily mean that the gold sales that settled at the Bank of England were from Swiss gold that had been stored at the Bank of England. The SNB could have executed sizeable gold location swaps between New York and London so as to have had enough gold in London in order to settle gold sales out of London.

In an educational publication of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York titled 'A Day at the Fed' by Charles Parnow, published from 1973 to 1983[7], it states that in the Fed's New York gold vault there is "a smaller auxiliary vault built in 1963" that holds the gold of three account holders. "One account with 107,000 bars is stacked with bricklayer precision into a solid wall 12 feet high, 10 feet wide and 18 feet deep."

These 107,000 gold bars were US Assay office bars, as were the majority of gold bars stored at the FRBNY. If these bars were of .995 fineness and average weight of 400oz each, this would total approximately 1,330 tonnes. When this Fed guide was published, there were only a handful of central banks / international organisations that could have held 1,300 tonnes of gold at the FRB New York, Germany, the IMF and Switzerland. France had most of its gold stored in Paris and Italy had over half its gold not stored in New York.

The IMF, according to its Articles of Association, had to have over 50% of its 3,400 tonnes of gold stored in New York so this would be over 1,700 tonnes and would exceed the 107,000 mentioned by Charles Parnow.

The Bundesbank in January 2013 stated that it held 1,536 tonnes of gold (122,597 bars) in the Fed's New York vaults[8]. Therefore, this 107,000 bar wall of gold most likely belonged to the Swiss National Bank's gold account, and if this was the case, would suggest that the SNB disposed of this entire 1,300 tonnes of gold from New York.

Other questions in the SNB's Q&A dossier address the foreign held gold stored at the Bank of England in London and the Bank of Canada in Ottawa.

SNB Q: Do representatives from the SNB have access to the storage locations?
SNB A: Access to the gold is governed by the provisions of the central bank and takes place by agreement between the parties.
SNB Q: When was the last visit of the SNB to these sites (abroad)?
SNB A: Representatives of the National Bank inspect the storage rooms of gold at regular intervals and in agreement with the central bank partners. The SNB has been satisfied in all respects by the result of these visits.

 Swiss gold at the Bank of Canada, Ottawa
There are a number of significant fact about the Bank of Canada's gold vault in Ottawa that the SNB is not telling the Swiss public. In fact, the SNB do not tell the Swiss public very much at all about the Swiss gold held in Ottawa. The following SNB Q&A illustrate the dearth of information imparted by the SNB:

SNB Q: Why does the SNB store gold in the UK and Canada? Where exactly are the stocks in these countries?
SNB A: The choice of countries where gold is stored meets a series of clearly defined criteria. It also achieves, outside Switzerland, an appropriate geographical and geopolitical diversification; the selected country must have a high level of economic and political stability, provide a high level protection for the immunity for central bank investments, but also provide an advantage in terms of market access. The Swiss National Bank knows the precise geographic location of storage areas in the countries concerned, but does not provide any information on that subject.
SNB Q: Since when has gold been stored in these countries (England and Canada)?
SNB A: Deposits in these two countries have existed for several decades
References by the SNB to the Bank of Canada in Ottawa as a 'major gold trading centre' are also inaccurate.

As well as Canada having sold nearly all of its own gold reserves in the 1980s and 1990s, the Bank of Canada only acts as gold custodian to four foreign central banks. As well as Switzerland, it's known that the Netherlands and Sweden both gold small quantities of gold with the Bank of Canada in Ottawa. The 4th foreign central bank gold depositor is most likely the Bank of England or the Banque de France as they both had strong historic gold trading connections with the Bank of Canada during the 1950s and 1960s, as well as storing gold in the Ottawa vault during WWII.
What the SNB has also not said in the Swiss gold initiative debate is that the Bank of Canada’s remaining custody gold that had been stored in its gold vault in Ottawa has recently been moved to another vault[9].

The Bank of Canada’s headquarters building is situated on Wellington Street. The gold vault under the Bank of Canada's HQ building runs from Wellington Street on one side of the building out towards Sparks Street on the other side.

This building is currently undergoing an extensive multi-year renovation which required the Bank to vacate the entire building last year, and empty it’s entire contents, including the gold stored in the subterranean vault[10]. The renovations will not be complete until January 2017. Representing 10% of the SNB's total gold holdings of 1,040 tonnes, this means that over 100 tonnes of Swiss gold is has recently been moved and the Swiss public are not aware of this.

The gold in the Bank's Ottawa vault, in the form of bars and coins, was relocated in advance of the Bank personnel move. Whatever gold was moved from the Bank of Canada's HQ vault has most likely been moved to the Royal Canadian Mint (RCM) gold refinery vault just a mile down the road from Wellington Street.

This would also explain why historic Canadian gold coins from 1912-1914 that had been stored in the Bank's vault for 75 years recently ended up in the RCM's vault in November 2012, and why ex Bank of Canada governor Mark Carney appeared in publicity photo shoots at the RCM vault at that time, while holding the Bank of Canada gold coins.

"”The Bank of Canada is proud to have safeguarded these national treasures for over 75 years and we are pleased that they have returned to the Mint so that Canadians can collect them as precious historical objects,” said Mark Carney, Governor of the Bank of Canada.[11]"

If the Swiss gold that was previous held at the Bank of Canada's Ottawa vault is now being stored in the Royal Canadian Mint's vault, the Swiss public should be told this, and be assured that the Swiss gold is segregated from the Mint's working inventory of gold.

1,300 tonnes of gold sold: SNB's Michael Paprotta
In March 2013, just after the gold initiative committee had completed their signature gathering campaign to call a popular initiative referendum on the Swiss gold, Michael Paprotta, the former head of money market and precious metals at the Swiss National Bank, was interviewed by Central Banking magazine about the proposed gold referendum.

Of all Swiss National Bank employees and former employees, Paprotta is probably the one person who is most familiar with the Swiss gold reserves and the sales programme, since, while he worked at the SNB, he was actually responsible for the famous gold sales program, or as he put it in his LinkedIn profile "execution of a gold sales program of 1,300 tons"[12]. This gold sales accomplishment was quickly removed from his Linkedin profile in October 2012 after it became publicised[13].

As well as responsibility for the execution of the gold sale programme, Michael Paprotta, in his SNB gold role, also had responsibility for the SNB's “gold lending portfolio[14]. Prior to working in the SNB, Paprotta worked at Edmond Safra's Republic National Bank in precious metals trading and sales, but moved to the SNB in January 2000, just after Republic National was taken over by HSBC.

Patrotta joined the SNB a few months before the start of the 1,300 gold sales programme which began in May 2000. The first 220 tonnes of sales were conducted via the gold trading desk of the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) in Basel. As well as loco London and loco New York, the BIS offers gold safekeeping and settlement facilities loco Berne[15], through its gold holdings in the Berne gold vaults of the Swiss National Bank.

The SNB have said subsequently that the first Swiss gold sales in 2000 and 2001 were conducted using the BIS as selling agent because the SNB did not have the "necessary professionals, know-how, trading resources and contacts to the international gold market to trade directly[16]". But this statement does not make sense in light of the fact that the SNB hired precious meta

Gold will continue to look for a bottom

Posted: 03 Nov 2014 05:17 AM PST

This morning saw Asian investors pick gold up but not heavily, explains Julian Phillips in his daily market commentary.

Gold wagers drop as $1.3bn pulled from funds

Posted: 03 Nov 2014 05:05 AM PST

More than $1.3 billion was pulled from U.S. exchange-traded products tracking precious metals in October.

Investors race to protect positions against gold rout

Posted: 03 Nov 2014 01:48 AM PST

Gold option volatility soared to its highest level since early this year on Friday.

Paulson’s fund up 11% through September

Posted: 03 Nov 2014 01:41 AM PST

John Paulson's $400 million PFR Gold Fund was up 11% year-to-date through the end of September.

Silver Analyst Who Predicted Silver’s Crash to $15 Three Years Ago Says Massive Rally Coming

Posted: 02 Nov 2014 05:35 PM PST

Nearly 3 years ago, with silver trading near $40/oz and gold near all-time nominal highs, SD gold & silver analyst Marshall Swing shocked the PM community by warning that silver would crash to $15/oz, then rocket past $1,000/oz as fiat collapses! 
Fast forward to Oct 31st, 2014, and silver has indeed crashed to a $15 handle.  
Does the ONLY precious metals analyst who forecast silver's crash from $50 to $15 still believe a silver moon-shot past $1,000/oz is coming along with a full-fledged fiat currency collapse?
Take heart silver investors.  The one analyst who saw this coming remains as bullish as ever:

Click here for more on the ONLY analyst who forecast silver’s crash to $15:

Silver Analyst Who Predicted Silver’s Crash to $15 Three Years Ago Says Massive Rally Coming

Posted: 02 Nov 2014 04:00 PM PST

Nearly 3 years ago, with silver trading near $40/oz and gold near all-time nominal highs, SD gold & silver analyst Marshall Swing shocked the PM community by warning that silver would crash to $15/oz, then rocket past $1,000/oz as fiat collapses!  Fast forward to Oct 31st, 2014, and silver has indeed crashed to a $15 handle. […]

The post Silver Analyst Who Predicted Silver’s Crash to $15 Three Years Ago Says Massive Rally Coming appeared first on Silver Doctors.

Gold & Silver Staring into the Abyss: Next Major Support at $1,000 & $9!

Posted: 02 Nov 2014 03:45 PM PST

In this week’s MUST LISTEN Metals & Markets, The Doc & Eric Dubin break down the epic take-down in the metals futures markets this week, discussing:  With gold’s triple bottom at $1280 breached and silver plunging below its uptrend channel from the 2nd phase of its secular bull market- next major support levels are $1,000 in […]

The post Gold & Silver Staring into the Abyss: Next Major Support at $1,000 & $9! appeared first on Silver Doctors.

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Harvey Organ: Manipulators Go ALL IN With EPIC Cartel Raid!

Posted: 02 Nov 2014 03:15 PM PST

The manipulators have thrown all their cards on the table. I warned on Wednesday to expect severe cartel intervention over the second half of the week. Let's head immediately to see the major data points for the day:  Submitted by Harvey Organ:  Gold: $1171.10 down $27.00Silver: $16.07 down 31 cents In the access market 5:15 […]

The post Harvey Organ: Manipulators Go ALL IN With EPIC Cartel Raid! appeared first on Silver Doctors.

Most People Cannot Even Imagine That An Economic Collapse Is Coming

Posted: 02 Nov 2014 02:40 PM PST

Thinking - Public DomainThe idea that the United States is on the brink of a horrifying economic crash is absolutely inconceivable to most Americans.  After all, the economy has been relatively stable for quite a few years and the stock market continues to surge to new heights.  On Friday, the Dow and the S&P 500 both closed at brand new all-time record highs.  For the year, the S&P 500 is now up 9 percent and the Nasdaq is now up close to 11 percent.  And American consumers are getting ready to spend more than 600 billion dollars this Christmas season.  That is an amount of money that is larger than the entire economy of Sweden.  So how in the world can anyone be talking about economic collapse?  Yes, many will concede, we had a few bumps in the road back in 2008 but things have pretty much gotten back to normal since then.  Why be concerned about economic collapse when there is so much stability all around us?

Unfortunately, this brief period of stability that we have been enjoying is just an illusion.

The fundamental problems that caused the financial crisis of 2008 have not been fixed.  In fact, most of our long-term economic problems have gotten even worse.

But most Americans have such short attention spans these days.  In a world where we are accustomed to getting everything instantly, news cycles only last for 48 hours and 2008 might as well be an eternity ago.

In the United States today, our entire economic system is based on debt.

Without debt, very little economic activity happens.  We need mortgages to buy our homes, we need auto loans to buy our vehicles and we need our credit cards to do our shopping during the holiday season.

So where does all of that debt come from?

It comes from the banks.

In particular, the "too big to fail banks" are the heart of this debt-based system.

Do you have a mortgage, an auto loan or a credit card from one of these "too big to fail" institutions?  A very large percentage of the people that will read this article do.

And a lot of people might not like to hear this, but without those banks we essentially do not have an economy.

When Lehman Brothers collapsed in 2008, it almost resulted in the meltdown of our entire system.  The stock market collapsed and we experienced an absolutely wicked credit crunch.

Unfortunately, that was just a small preview of what is coming.

Even though a few prominent "experts" such as New York Times columnist Paul Krugman have declared that the "too big to fail" problem is "over", the truth is that it is now a bigger crisis than ever before.

Compared to five years ago, the four largest banks in the country are now almost 40 percent larger.  The following numbers come from a recent article in the Los Angeles Times...

Just before the financial crisis hit, Wells Fargo & Co. had $609 billion in assets. Now it has $1.4 trillion. Bank of America Corp. had $1.7 trillion in assets. That's up to $2.1 trillion.

And the assets of JPMorgan Chase & Co., the nation's biggest bank, have ballooned to $2.4 trillion from $1.8 trillion.

At the same time that those banks have been getting bigger, 1,400 smaller banks have completely disappeared from the banking industry.

That means that we are now more dependent on these gigantic banks than ever.

At this point, the five largest banks account for 42 percent of all loans in the United States, and the six largest banks account for 67 percent of all assets in our financial system.

If someone came along and zapped those banks out of existence, our economy would totally collapse overnight.

So the health of this handful of immensely powerful banking institutions is absolutely critical to our economy.

Unfortunately, these banks have become deeply addicted to gambling.

Have you ever known people that allowed their lives to be destroyed by addictions that they could never shake?

Well, that is what is happening to these banks.  They have transformed Wall Street into the largest casino in the history of the world.  Most of the time, their bets pay off and they make lots of money.

But as we saw back in 2008, when they miscalculate things can fall apart very rapidly.

The bets that I am most concerned about are known as "derivatives".  In essence, they are bets about what will or will not happen in the future.  The big banks use very sophisticated algorithms that are supposed to help them be on the winning side of these bets the vast majority of the time, but these algorithms are not perfect.  The reason these algorithms are not perfect is because they are based on assumptions, and those assumptions come from people.  They might be really smart people, but they are still just people.

If things stay fairly stable like they have the past few years, the algorithms tend to work very well.

But if there is a "black swan event" such as a major stock market crash, a collapse of European or Asian banks, a historic shift in interest rates, an Ebola pandemic, a horrific natural disaster or a massive EMP blast is unleashed by the sun, everything can be suddenly thrown out of balance.

Acrobat Nik Wallenda has been making headlines all over the world for crossing vast distances on a high-wire without a safety net.  Well, that is essentially what our "too big to fail" banks are doing every single day.  With each passing year, these banks have become even more reckless, and so far there have not been any serious consequences.

But without a doubt, someday there will be.

What would you say about a bookie that took $200,000 in bets but that only had $10,000 to cover those bets?

You would certainly call that bookie a fool.

But that is what our big banks are doing.

Right now, JPMorgan Chase has more than 67 trillion dollars in exposure to derivatives but it only has 2.5 trillion dollars in assets.

Right now, Citibank has nearly 60 trillion dollars in exposure to derivatives but it only has 1.9 trillion dollars in assets.

Right now, Goldman Sachs has more than 54 trillion dollars in exposure to derivatives but it has less than a trillion dollars in assets.

Right now, Bank of America has more than 54 trillion dollars in exposure to derivatives but it only has 2.2 trillion dollars in assets.

Right now, Morgan Stanley has more than 44 trillion dollars in exposure to derivatives but it has less than a trillion dollars in assets.

Most people have absolutely no idea how incredibly vulnerable our financial system really is.

The truth is that these "too big to fail" banks could collapse at any time.

And when they fail, our economy will fail too.

So let us hope and pray that this brief period of false stability lasts for as long as possible.

Because when it ends, all hell is going to break loose.

Alasdair Macleod’s Market Report: FOMC Hits Gold and Silver

Posted: 02 Nov 2014 01:31 PM PST

Trading in precious metals was quiet until Wednesday morning, when prices began to soften. When the FOMC meeting released its policy statement at 2.00pm EST, gold and silver responded by falling heavily, with gold breaching the $1200 level Thursday and silver crashing through $17 to a low of $16.33. Friday morning gold and silver fell further […]

The post Alasdair Macleod’s Market Report: FOMC Hits Gold and Silver appeared first on Silver Doctors.

TRICK OR TREAT: The Drain of JP Morgan Gold Inventories Continues

Posted: 02 Nov 2014 12:26 PM PST

Just in time for the Halloween Spooks to come out and play by slashing the prices of the precious metals, JP Morgan (vampire squid), experienced another ghastly withdrawal from its gold inventories Friday.   Something quite eerie seems to be taking place as the majority of Comex gold withdrawals are coming out of the dark dungeons […]

The post TRICK OR TREAT: The Drain of JP Morgan Gold Inventories Continues appeared first on Silver Doctors.

1 comment:

  1. Hey, there is a broken link in this article, under the anchor text - International Energy Administration

    Here is the working link so you can replace it - https://selectra.co.uk/energy/news/environment/solar-largest-electricity-source-2050

    ReplyDelete