Gold World News Flash |
- Gold Arbitrage and Backwardation Part I
- Gold seen averaging $1,219/oz in LBMA survey
- South African court to rule on gold mine strike threat
- Singapore drops plans for gold fix amid London pricing probe
- Bristow warns on Kibali gold mine – Don’t rock the boat!
- China ties new gold ‘spot’ contract to the Yuan
- Can’t miss headlines: Goldcorp waits, Amplats warns, B2Gold, Oceana break records
- How Long Can Gold Prices be Held Down? – Demand Factors
- A Glimpse into the Coming Collapse
- A Comedy Of IMF Forecasting Errors: Global Trade Growth Tumbles More Than 50% From IMF's 2012 Prediction
- A Very Telling Week For Gold: Wagner – “Chart This!”
- VIX Jumps To 1-Week High As Stocks Reverse Gains
- Gold and Silver
- The BaFin enquiry into Deutsche Bank
- GOLD Elliott Wave Analysis: Bearish Beneath 1230
- Russian Motivations for Attacking the United States
- Herbalift: Barclays Raises HLF Price Target From $78 To $94, Says Herbalife's "China Business Model Is Unique"
- Banks Disparage Gold Ownership and Engage in Largest Financial Crime Spree
- Dr. Paul Craig Roberts — U.S. Gold Gone
- NO Refuge From Bankster Crimes, EVER: Gold And Silver Tumble Most In A Month
- Gold Price Forecast by LBMA Contest to Drop 14% in 2014, Worst Low of $950
- Economic Collapse 2014 -- Current Economic Collapse News Brief
- China Still Missing from Gold Price
- China Still Missing from Gold Price
- Economic Collapse 2014 -- Worldwide Physical Gold SHORTAGE
- What 47 Years in Gold Says to Do Now
- What 47 Years in Gold Says to Do Now
- This Is The Greatest Financial Market And Currency Manipulation Of All Times
- Silver Game Changer - Institutional Buying
- Gold Stocks Long Wave Winter
- Richard Russell - The Entire System May Collapse In 2014
- The Gold Price Closed at $1,251.90
- The Gold Price Closed at $1,251.90
- Another Financial Crisis Is Coming
- How Long Can Gold Prices be Held Down?
- German legislator seeks repatriation of all the Bundesbank's gold
- Central banks soon will retreat to a higher level for gold suppression, Turk says
- Bitcoin Revolution -- BITCOIN - The PRO's & CON's
- Dollar Daze
- Gold Market – The Way The Tectonic Plates Are Shifting Still Has To Be Understood
- 2013: A Successful Year of Price-Suppression, Part I
- Central Banks, Gold & the Currency Market, Part II
- Central Banks, Gold & the Currency Market, Part II
- Central Banks, Gold & the Currency Market, Part II
- Why The Bundesbank Is repatriating Its Gold So Slowly
- Turk - The Silver Spike Is Going To Shock The World In 2014
- Bob Quartermain: “The Real Rewards Are Offered From Solid Projects Backed By Solid People”
- Embry on Deutsche Bank's gold fixing exit; von Greyerz on gold's upward turn
- Gold Bars at NY Fed "Need Recasting", Says Bundesbank
- Gold Bars at NY Fed "Need Recasting", Says Bundesbank
| Gold Arbitrage and Backwardation Part I Posted: 21 Jan 2014 08:40 AM PST By Keith Weiner
Professor Tom Fischer has written three papers[1][2][3] about gold backwardation and arbitrage. Across these three papers, he makes a case against the ideas of Professor Antal Fekete. I write this response solely on my own behalf. I do not speak on behalf of Fekete or his New Austrian school of Economics. I have two motivations for writing. First, I have written myself extensively about the gold basis and gold backwardation. Second, I have discussed my basis theory[4], and used it both to analyze market events (e.g. the crash of April 12 and 15, 2013)[5] and to make predictions, via the Monetary Metals Supply and Demand Report[6]. Additionally, I want to present a fuller treatment of certain topics. The best place to begin is with Fischer's discussion of arbitrage. Before addressing what he thinks is the flaw in Fekete's definition, I want to look at an important point that Fischer makes. He says that one is not free to arbitrarily change or broaden a definition, in order to smuggle one's conclusions. In Fekete's Arbitrage Fallacy, Fischer writes:
Of course, I agree that this would indeed be an egregious error. In each of his three papers on this topic, Fischer offers similar wording to define arbitrage, so let's take the most complete one, also from Fekete's Arbitrage Fallacy:
There are two principles that students of the Austrian School will recognize right away. First, there is no such thing as a risk-free rate of interest. Non-Austrians are discovering this too, for example the European Central Bank. ECB executive board member, on Dec 9 Peter Praet, said:
Banks have been borrowing from the central bank in order to buy the bonds of sovereign governments. The cost of borrowing from the ECB is lower than the interest rate on those sovereign bonds. They would appear to be performing arbitrage, as Fischer defines it. But, as Mr. Praet reminds us, these bonds do pose risks. If the sovereign bond is risky, then what real instrument pays a risk-free yield? The banks are not doing this because it has no risk. They are doing it because the ECB is offering dirt-cheap credit. In proposing its new regulations, the ECB is saying that it does not intend to stop offering subsidized credit. It just wants to impose restrictions on what banks can do with this credit or how much they can qualify for. By the way, Fischer's definition above does not state explicitly that the arbitrage investment is also supposed to be risk free. Later in the paper, he does state it:
There is no such thing as a risk-free investment either. Even the simple act of buying shares in New York for 99 and selling them a few milliseconds later in London for 100 has certain risks. Defining the unreal risk-free investment in terms of the unreal risk-free rate of interest is the finance equivalent of defining a dragon as a creature which preys upon unicorns. The second principle—and this should not be controversial—is that the purpose of economics is to study human action. This was the title chosen by Ludwig von Mises, the greatest 20th century economist, for his greatest work. The acting man is the proper focus of the economist. Whatever the merits of the notion of a risk-free interest rate, it has no relationship to actors in the economy. Indeed, it has no relationship to reality, and therefore it has no place in a proper theory of economics. In teaching physics to new students, there is some merit to first studying frictionless surfaces, mass-less strings, and so on. Oversimplification is useful here, to allow the students to concentrate on learning basic principles first. More advanced students must deal with the complexity of the real world including strings that have mass. There are two differences between positing a mass-less string and a risk-free rate of interest. The real string with mass is quite similar to the mass-less string, especially when the weights it ties together are orders of magnitude more massive. And the physics instructor makes it clear from the beginning that mass-less strings are just for novice students. I do agree with Fischer on the principle that a proper definition for each concept is essential. Arbitrary definitions will not do, whether invented by a lone dissenting individual or by the consensus of an entire profession. The opposite of arbitrary is objective, which means based in reality. All proper concepts are based in reality. Therefore, to properly form a concept, and hence define it, one must begin by looking at the various facts that give rise to it. Ayn Rand wrote about concept formation:
An example is the definition of chair. It's a piece of furniture that you sit in. The definition does not include any mention of color, size, material, or number of legs. It must be broad enough to include every chair you will ever see in your life. At the same time, the definition must exclude all non-chairs such as tables, lamps, shelves, cars, and computers. In Fischer's example of a badly formed concept, gold is defined as all metals. All metals do share certain characteristics such as uniformity, divisibility, electrical and heat conductivity, etc. That is why we have the concept metal. But we have the concept gold because gold is distinguished from all other metals. A definition of gold, which includes things such as zinc that do not possess its unique characteristics, is invalid. Such a definition is much too broad, and therefore unusable. It would cripple the thinking of anyone who accepted such a definition. Gold, iron, and zinc are all metals. Only gold is gold. We're now ready to build up to a proper concept of arbitrage. We will base our approach on something that exists in reality that's performed by the acting man. Per our discussion of definitions, we must be thinking about what distinguishes arbitrage from all other kinds of actions. Let's look at certain principles described by Carl Menger, widely considered to be the founder of the Austrian School of economics. It is a fact that in all markets, there is not a single monolithic price. There is always a bid price and an ask price. Menger arrives at this by noting the problems in a then-popular notion. A certain quantity of one type of goods was assumed to be equivalent to another quantity of a different type of goods, if those goods were exchanged. In his book, Principles of Economics, Menger notes that if the goods were truly equivalent then any transaction could be reversed. But in reality, it does not work this way. If you buy 100 bushels of wheat at the grain market for 5 ounces of gold, then you cannot sell that wheat for 5 ounces unless the market moves upwards. Your loss is the bid- ask spread. The bid and ask prices open up a whole new mode of thinking in economics. You can see that if you have wheat that you must sell then you must accept the bid price. If the wheat you provided to the bidder satisfies his demand, then this bidder will leave the market. The next-best bidder is the bidder below him. To sell something on the bid tends to cause the bid to drop. The opposite is true with buying at the ask price. It tends to lift the ask. Consider the case of eggs offered in a farm town and bid in the city center. In this case, an actor can pick up and deliver the eggs. To do this, he must pay the ask price on eggs in the farm town, and be paid the bid in the city center. His profit is the city center egg bid minus the farm town egg ask. In reality, it's somewhat more complicated than this simple example. The would-be egg distributor must also buy fuel, a truck, and drivers' wages in addition to eggs. He must pay the ask on all of these inputs. The action of this egg-distributing actor will lift the ask price in the farm town and depress the bid price in the city center. As he scales up his activity (or his competitors do) the profit margin of this business will shrink. Will it go away entirely? No, the margin will never shrink to zero in the real world. It will shrink with each new competitor, until no new competitors are attracted to this business. More formally, we say that the marginal distributor walks away from this market; the spread is too small. Marginality is another key idea introduced by Menger. Marginality provides an elegant and concise way to understand markets. If a bid ticks lower, then a marginal seller will leave the business of producing that good. If an ask ticks higher, then a marginal user of that good will either find a substitute or go out of business. As markets developed, an actor appeared who was certainly not well understood at the time, and not well understood even today. The market maker stands ready to buy or sell. He makes a bid and an ask in the same good. In so doing, he narrows the bid-ask spread. He is the force that pulls down the ask if the bid is pressed, or pulls up the bid if the ask is lifted. Will the bid-ask spread ever be zero? No, it will compress until the marginal market maker walks away. Incidentally, each good has a different bid-ask spread, as a function of its liquidity (gold has the narrowest by far). Now let's move to a different kind of example, a consumer who buys apples every week. On the next visit to the grocer, he sees that pears are on sale. He switches his custom, refusing the apples and buying the pears instead. What will his action (along with the actions of many similar consumers) do? What will be the effect on apples? Without his buying, there is less pressure lifting the ask price. Instead, the apple merchant may have to dump apples on the consumer bid. In the pear market, his action lifts the ask. The simple act of switching his custom is motivated by a certain kind of incentive offered by the market. And it will have a particular kind of effect on prices in the market. We have looked at distributors, including those who buy multiple inputs to sell one output, market makers, and consumers who switch goods based on a sale. There are many other kinds of economic action that have something in common with these examples, but these few are sufficient. From them we can identify the essential. What do they have in common? What characteristic unites our examples and at the same time distinguishes them from all other kinds of action? In my dissertation[9], I offered a definition of arbitrage as, "the act of straddling a spread in the markets." In arbitrage, the acting man is offered an incentive to act, in the form of a spread. Whether this spread is used to earn a profit, or whether it is simply an inducement to try pears for a change, the spread is constantly signaling the incentives to take certain actions and to avoid taking others. There is also a feedback mechanism. The very act of taking the incentive—of straddling the spread—compresses it. These are the two universal, absolute, immutable, and essential facts that give rise to the need for a broad concept of arbitrage. First, spreads signal an incentive to the acting man. Second, when an acting man takes the spread he causes it to become narrower; thus he reduces the incentive for the next actor to come along. Arbitrage is what drives economic action and, therefore, it drives prices, changes to prices, spreads, and changes to spreads in markets. Fischer asserts that arbitrage opportunities should all be arbitraged away. We can now refine this, and state with precision and clarity that every spread tends to compresses until the marginal actor is not attracted to straddle it. The spread does not go to zero. It is not necessary to assert that everyone acts to straddle every spread offered; this would be impossible and is obviously false. It is sufficient, if we see an actionable spread, to predict that someone or many someone's will take the arbitrage. For those interested, a major part of my dissertation was to show that every attempt by the government to interfere with markets forces spreads to widen. This is why the presence of wide spreads today—with worldwide government intervention gone mad—does not invalidate the concept of arbitrage.
In Part II, I discuss Professor Fischer's assertion that gold is a currency and hence conclusions may be drawn based on comparing its lease rate to LIBOR. [1] Faux Gold Arbitrage by Professor Tom Fischer [2] Why gold's contango suggests central bank interference by Professor Tom Fischer [3] Fekete's Arbitrage Fallacy by Professor Tom Fischer [7] Financial Times article: Dual role for ECB designed to drive recovery in lending [8] Introduction to Objectivist Epistemology by Ayn Rand |
| Gold seen averaging $1,219/oz in LBMA survey Posted: 21 Jan 2014 08:37 AM PST Gold will average $1,219 an ounce this year and gain as much as 11% from now, shows a London Bullion Market Association survey of traders and analysts. |
| South African court to rule on gold mine strike threat Posted: 21 Jan 2014 08:37 AM PST The Labour Court will tomorrow rule on a request by gold producers to halt a strike for higher wages called by union AMCU due to start on Thursday. |
| Singapore drops plans for gold fix amid London pricing probe Posted: 21 Jan 2014 08:37 AM PST Sources with direct knowledge of the matter say Singapore has dropped its plans to set a daily reference price for gold. |
| Bristow warns on Kibali gold mine – Don’t rock the boat! Posted: 21 Jan 2014 08:37 AM PST Building the big Kibali gold mine in the DRC has been a remarkable achievement but Randgold CEO, Mark Bristow, warns against the status quo being adversely affected by possible future legislation. |
| China ties new gold ‘spot’ contract to the Yuan Posted: 21 Jan 2014 08:37 AM PST China's aim is eventually to stand alone without the dollar and the new Yuan priced gold contract is a step towards a greater use of the currency internationally, says Julian Phillips. |
| Can’t miss headlines: Goldcorp waits, Amplats warns, B2Gold, Oceana break records Posted: 21 Jan 2014 08:37 AM PST The latest morning headlines, top junior developments and metal price movements. Today, Osisko rejects Goldcorp's offer and tension remains very high on South Africa's platinum and gold fields. |
| How Long Can Gold Prices be Held Down? – Demand Factors Posted: 21 Jan 2014 08:20 AM PST from Gold Seek:
So the next logical question is, "How long can they keep on doing this without the gold price rising rapidly?" The short answer: As long as demand in the traditional markets is either lower or the same as supply. This has two aspects, first the potential for rising demand and second, the potential for falling supplies. The main traditional market is London, where supposedly 90% of physical gold is traded. China buys there, 'on the dips' by importers taking bulk supplies and shipping them to Hong Kong (and Shanghai?) as stock for the distributors to the retail traded. |
| A Glimpse into the Coming Collapse Posted: 21 Jan 2014 08:00 AM PST by Jeff Thomas, Casey Research:
We were premature in this prediction, as the first of the crashes did not occur until 2007. And, truth be told, we have frequently been incorrect in the timing of the other dominoes. Whilst the actual events have been predicted correctly, our timing has often been incorrect. In every such case, the prediction has been premature. |
| Posted: 21 Jan 2014 07:33 AM PST The comedy of errors that are IMF forecasts is well known: it was covered most recently in "Hilarious Charts Of The Day: IMF's "Growth Forecasts" Over Time." Moments ago we got the IMF's first forecast update for 2014 which also included the Fund's first 2015 forecasts for growth around the world. Not surprisingly, they were largely higher across the board except for China which has seen its 2014 projected GDP growth collapse from 8.5% a year ago to 7.5% now, and is expected to drop modestly to 7.3% in 2015. The charts showing the progression of said hilarious forecasts are shown in their entirety below, about which one thing can be said with certainty: whatever the GDP growth rate in the world is in 2014 and 2015 it will be anything but what the IMF predicts it to be. But perhaps the most notable feature of today's set of numbers is the IMF's forecast of world trade. In a word: it is crashing. Consider that 2013 world trade was expected to grow by 5.6% in April 2012. Now: it is more than 50% lower at just 2.7%! Yet what is truly hilarious and certainly head scratching, is that somehow the IMF now anticipates a pick up in global growth in 2014 from its previous forecast of 3.6% to 3.7%, even as global trade is revised lower once more to the lowest prediction for 2014, and currently stands at just 4.5% compared to 4.9% in October 2013 and 5.5% a year ago (it goes without saying that the final global trade number for 2014 will be well lower than the IMF's optimistic forecast). How global GDP is expected to grow on the margin compared to previous forecasts even as trade contracts is anyone's guess... Behold the IMF's revision to global growth forecasts: how does one spell error bars. And here are the GDP growth forecasts for the rest of the world. Global: US: Eurozone: China: |
| A Very Telling Week For Gold: Wagner – “Chart This!” Posted: 21 Jan 2014 07:30 AM PST from KitcoNews: Kitco News speaks with Gary Wagner about gold and silver as markets close for Martin Luther King Jr. Day. Wagner says that gold is currently at an important crossroads and a lot can be deduced from its next move. “We’re right at the point at which if [gold] breaks through the resistance line it’s a very bullish signal. If it backs off, it tells us something different,” he says. “Gold is attempting to find footing.” With regards to silver, Wagner says that it is reacting a lot differently than the yellow metal. “It has been trading in a defined range,” he says. “If you look at a gold chart and compare it to a silver chart where you see a nice little rally that has developed in gold…silver has almost been flat lined.” Wagner focuses on this crossroads for gold. “I think that this will be a very telling week as to whether or not [gold] will break through or back off.” |
| VIX Jumps To 1-Week High As Stocks Reverse Gains Posted: 21 Jan 2014 07:26 AM PST It appears the early (pre-market) strength in US equities provided just the right amount of stop-hunting room for longs to cover and sellers to re-appear as the S&P 500 tested up towards record highs (and unch year-to-date). US equities ran away from their JPY-related proxy briefly but have collapsed back down to it now as perhaps the tell was a push higher in VIX right from the open. VIX rose over 13% briefly - its highest in a week - as US equities (notably the Dow with no support from Visa or American Express to save its skin) tumbled. Treasuries have ben rallying since 0600ET - about the same time gold and silver were slammed. Precious metals are rallying admirably off the lows as stocks tumble (and the USD is unch on the day now)
VIX leading the charge lower...
as stocks catch down to JPY crosses...
Stock selling prompted PM buying as US equities opened...
and Bonds have been bid since PMs were pummeled... |
| Posted: 21 Jan 2014 07:25 AM PST Nothing has changed. Precious Metals bull market continues and is moving step by step closer to the final parabolic phase (could start in summer 2014 and last for 2-3 years or maybe later) Read More... |
| The BaFin enquiry into Deutsche Bank Posted: 21 Jan 2014 07:00 AM PST by Alasdair Macleod, Finance and Economics:
The fact that Deutsche Bank is pulling out of the prestigious fixing role four weeks after BaFin requested these documents suggests Deutsche Bank has a case to answer, even though it has been sold to us through the press as part of their overall scaling-back from commodities. Furthermore the nature of market manipulations is that they usually involve a number of banks, as the scandal over Libor illustrates. So it is perfectly reasonable to suspect that other banks in the two fixing companies are likely to be involved as well |
| GOLD Elliott Wave Analysis: Bearish Beneath 1230 Posted: 21 Jan 2014 06:52 AM PST Gold moved to a new swing high recently, to 1260, a leg that which can be considered as a final part of a recovery from 1181. We see move up from 1214 as potential ending diagonal placed in wave (c) that could complete recovery in this week ... Read More... |
| Russian Motivations for Attacking the United States Posted: 21 Jan 2014 06:50 AM PST by Dave Hodges, The Common Sense Show:
The Last Great American Garage Sale Both country's mafia/intelligence operations have acted as currency destabilization forces as well (see Confessions of An Economic Hit Man). |
| Posted: 21 Jan 2014 06:29 AM PST The soap opera that just won't end... won't end. After last week's collapse in the price of Nuskin, which dragged down the price of Herbalife, there were some rumors that Ackman's calls for a collapse of one of the best performing stocks of 2013 may finally come true. Not so if Barclays has anything to say about it. Moments ago the British bank reported that it is raising its price target on HLF from $78 to $94, and anticipates some 34% upside from current levels. From the just released report:
Cue some more theta. |
| Banks Disparage Gold Ownership and Engage in Largest Financial Crime Spree Posted: 21 Jan 2014 06:13 AM PST As we enter the New Year and amid a list of bearish reports on gold, issued by most of the major Western banks, the flow of the yellow metal from the West to the East continues while Western banks are found guilty of a multitude of criminal activities including cases related to the sub-prime crisis, credit default swaps, mortgages, tax evasion, market rigging and insider trading, just to mention a few. While main stream media applaud the latest results of some of the major banks in the world, they hardly mention anything about how some of these banks have been involved in multiple cases of litigation. More incredible is how most analysts refer to these banks as well run institutions. And, despite being fined billions of US dollars, not a single person has been prosecuted. Can you imagine what would happen if an individual defrauded a bank? To make this more unbelievable, the culprits are not any small offshore bank, but include some of the worlds' largest banks such as HSBC, JP Morgan Chase, Deutsche and Barclays. Perhaps the biggest transgressor is JP Morgan Chase (JPM), the largest bank in the US and the sixth largest bank in the world with $2.39 trillion in assets. Only last week, JPM agreed to pay $1.7 billion to resolve a Justice Department investigation into its role in Bernard Madoff's multibillion-dollar Ponzi scheme. The giant Wall Street bank, which served as Madoff’s primary banker, acknowledged that it failed to alert authorities to suspicious activity in Madoff’s accounts as required under federal law. JPMorgan admitted violating two U.S. laws: failing to maintain effective anti-money laundering program and failing to file a suspicious activity report. The agreement comes five years after Madoff’s arrest rocked Wall Street and investors worldwide. He acknowledged stealing billions of dollars from investors, falsely claiming for decades that he used their money to make enormous gains in the financial markets. Instead, he used new investor money to make payments to earlier investors while making very few trades. But, if you think this is the only transgression JP Morgan has made, think again. While, JPM brought in nearly $24 billion in revenue last quarter, it reported a net loss of $400 million, widely attributed to legal fees. The company’s settlements since January add up to at least $20 billion! Last year, in an agreement settling many U.S. claims over its sale of troubled mortgages, JPMorgan Chase agreed to pay a record $13 billion, in a deal announced by the Justice Department. The plan includes a $4 billion payment for consumer relief, along with a payment to investors of more than $6 billion and a large fine. In addition to this JPM has agreed to pay $4.5 billion to investors — including 21 major institutions — for the faulty securities. In September and October last year the bank agreed to pay $1 billion to end investigations into the botched financial transactions of traders in London that cost the company more than $6 billion. In agreements with regulators totalling $1 billion and the largest bank in the US settled four civil investigations into its “London Whale” trading scandal and two more into the wrongful billing of credit-card customers. JPM is among the many large financial institutions implicated in the LIBOR manipulation scandal, a key interest rate used in derivatives markets. The banks allegedly rigged the rates for profit, while costing other markets that use the rates – such as mortgage companies – billions. JPMorgan is one of banks Freddie Mac is suing over the LIBOR scandal. The Bank of America and Citibank were also implicated in this scam as well as 16 non-U.S. banks namely, Bank of Nova Scotia, Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd, Barclays Bank plc., BNP Paribas, Credit Agricole CIB, Credit Suisse, Deutsche Bank AG, HSBC, Lloyds TSB Bank plc., Rabobank, Royal Bank of Canada, Société Générale, Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporation, The Norinchukin Bank, The Royal Bank of Scotland Group and UBS AG. But, getting back to JP Morgan, in September, the bank paid refunded $389 million to 2.1 million credit-card customers and paid a fine after allegedly misleading and overcharging them. Also, in September it paid $300 million to resolve an insurance lawsuit, splitting payment with Assurant Inc. In August it paid $410 million to settle allegations that it manipulated U.S energy markets. June cost the bank $842 million when it agreed to forgive debt owed to it by Jefferson County, Ala., where the company’s securities deals led to the county's bankruptcy in 2011. JP Morgan was implicated in the MF Global fiasco and after months of a Federal investigation, agreed to return $546 million to customers of the failed brokerage. In October of 2011, an amount of $1.5 billion suddenly disappeared from supposedly sacrosanct customer accounts. Former New Jersey governor Jon Corzine was CEO of MF Global when it filed for bankruptcy in 2011. Of course when questioned at a congressional hearing Corzine denied any wrong doing and swore under oath that he had no idea what happened to the money. What few people remember that MF Global took over the New York based financial services company Refco which was founded in 1969 as “Ray E. Friedman and Co.” Prior to its collapse in October, 2005, the firm had over $4 billion in approximately 200,000 customer accounts, and it was the largest broker on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. The firm’s balance sheet at the time of the collapse showed about $75 billion in assets and a roughly equal amount in liabilities. On October 10, 2005 Refco suddenly announced that its chief executive officer and chairman, Phillip Bennett had hidden $430 million in bad debts from the company’s auditors and investors. As it turned out a receivable was owed to Refco by an unnamed entity that turned out to be controlled by Mr Bennett, in the amount of approximately US$430 million. What do you know? It was just another major financial scam. Recently, Germany’s top financial regulator reported that possible manipulation of currency rates and prices for precious metals is worse than the Libor-rigging scandal, which has already led to fines of about $6 billion. The Bonn-based Bafin is investigating currency trading, joining regulators in the U.K., U.S. and Switzerland, who are examining whether traders at the world’s largest banks colluded to manipulate the WM/Reuters rates, used by money managers to determine the value of holdings in different currencies. At least a dozen firms have been contacted by authorities and more than 13 traders have been suspended, fired, or put on leave in the currency case. Regulators are examining how traders, who communicated in instant-message groups, exchanged information on client orders and agreed how to trade at the time of the fix, five people with knowledge of the probes said last month. “That the issue is causing such a public reaction is understandable,” Koenig said. “The financial sector is dependent on the common trust that it is efficient and at the same time honest. The central benchmark rates seemed to be beyond any doubt, and now there is the allegation they may have been manipulated.” Bafin interviewed employees of Deutsche Bank AG as part of a probe of potential manipulation of gold and silver prices, a person with knowledge of the matter has said in December. The U.K. finance regulator, the Financial Conduct Authority, is also reviewing gold benchmarks as part of its wider investigation into how rates are set. Firms including Barclays Plc and UBS AG have been fined for manipulating Libor and related rates. The European Union fined six firms, including Deutsche Bank and Societe Generale SA, a record 1.7 billion euros ($2.3 billion) in December for rate-rigging. Ten people have also been charged in parallel U.S. and U.K. criminal investigations into the matter. Last Wednesday, global investigations into alleged currency market manipulation intensified as U.S. regulators descended on Citigroup’s London offices and Deutsche suspended several traders in New York, sources told Reuters. And, then on Friday, Deutsche Bank made a surprising announcement. Deutsche Bank stated that it will withdraw from the London gold and silver benchmark price settings. What a "timely" coincidence! Deutsche together with four other banks: Bank of Nova Scotia-ScotiaMocatta, Barclays Bank Plc, HSBC Bank and Société Générale, are involved in the twice-daily gold fix for global price setting. The fixings are used to determine spot prices for the billions of dollars of the two precious metals traded each day. In a statement issued by Deutsche as the reason for them withdrawing from the fix the bank said. “Deutsche Bank is withdrawing its participation in the gold and silver benchmark setting process following the significant scaling back of our commodities business. We remain fully committed to our precious metals business.” In mid-December, German banking regulator Bafin demanded documents from Deutsche Bank under an inquiry into suspected manipulation of benchmark gold and silver prices by banks. At the time, Deutsche declined to comment on the FT report. Bafin reiterated in December that besides benchmark interest-rate LIBOR and Euribor rigging by banks, it had been looking at other benchmark-setting processes such as gold and silver price fixings at individual banks. Deutsche has also been named in cases related to the sub-prime crisis, credit default swaps, mortgages, tax evasion and a decade-old lawsuit suit brought by the heirs of late media mogul Leo Kirch, who accuse the bank of undermining the business. The bank set aside 1.2 billion euros for potential legal charges in the third quarter, wiping out profit and raising the total amount of legal reserves to 4.1 billion euros. It seems that lying, cheating, rigging markets and insider-trading have become the order of the day for these large banks. And, as they try everything to disparage the benefits of owing gold, the Chinese view the precious metal in a very different light. Unlike their Western counterparts, the Chinese view gold as money and thus it is always worth accumulating by selling potentially worthless foreign currency. And, while the Chinese government encourages its citizens to accumulate gold, Western banks try everything to discourage their citizens from owning gold even if it means suppressing the price of the yellow metal. Western banks believe that gold will never play a monetary role again, and that with all their expansionary monetary policies, global fiat currencies will ultimately prevail. Since 1971, Western central bankers have used fiat paper instead of a gold backed monetary system and therefore believe that gold will never be part of a monetary system again. Yet, a system based on exploding debt cannot be sustained. Furthermore, more individuals are becoming aware of the illegal actions of our major financial leaders. Also, they are losing confidence in the respective fiat currencies and are turning to tangible assets. Our entire global financial is corrupt. And, while it is necessary to have a bank account in order to engage in transactions, it is equally important to have a store of wealth kept outside this system. And, the best way to do this is to own gold. |
| Dr. Paul Craig Roberts — U.S. Gold Gone Posted: 21 Jan 2014 06:05 AM PST from USA Watchdog: Former Assistant Treasury Secretary Paul Craig Roberts is making some bold new claims about the Federal Reserve and its official government gold holdings. Dr. Roberts contends, "They don't have any more gold. That's why they can only give Germany 5 tons of the 1,500 tons it's holding. In fact, when Germany asked for this delivery last year, the Fed said no. But it said we will give you back 300 tons . . . . So, they said we will give you back 20% of what you trusted us to keep for you over the next seven years, but they are not even able to do that." Dr. Roberts goes on to say, "The stocks of gold at the Bank of England seem to be disappearing. The stocks of many of the gold trusts, such as GLD, are being looted . . . all of this gold is disappearing into Asian markets. The entire West is being drained of gold." According to Dr. Roberts, this is an inflection point for the gold market. Dr. Roberts says, "The reason is: the ability to supply large amounts of gold to the bullion dealers to sell has diminished with the supply of gold and silver. What the Fed did was turn to massive 'naked shorts' of gold futures contracts. They don't have the real gold . . . so they come in and dump contracts, say in a period of 6 minutes, that are three times the amount of gold COMEX has to make delivery. . . . So, it drives down the price of gold. That's how they got the price down from $1,900 to $1,250." Roberts contends that America's gold is "mainly gone." That's right, a former Assistant Treasury Secretary who is the father of Reaganomics, says, "They obviously don't have any because, if they did, they would have given Germany's gold back. If they had any, they would let people audit the vaults." |
| NO Refuge From Bankster Crimes, EVER: Gold And Silver Tumble Most In A Month Posted: 21 Jan 2014 06:01 AM PST from ZeroHedge:
With no apparent news – who needs news – the precious metals market participants have decided that now is the time to sell, sell, sell in huge volume and all of a sudden… Gold is down 1.3% – its biggest drop in a month; and silver is down 2.8% – its biggest drop in 5 weeks. Gold has dropped back down to test its 50DMA and silver has crossed back down through it. Bonds are modestly bid, stocks ar enot moving on this collapse and the USD is hardly budging. |
| Gold Price Forecast by LBMA Contest to Drop 14% in 2014, Worst Low of $950 Posted: 21 Jan 2014 05:04 AM PST GOLD PRICE forecasts by analysts competing in the LBMA 2014 competition predicted an average 14% drop during 2014 on Tuesday morning. Spot gold prices meantime gave back Friday's rally, trading below $1245 per ounce as silver prices fell to an 8-session low beneath $20. Quoted in the London Bullion Market Association's new 2014 forecast, "Has the floor been found in gold?" asks Tom Kendall, the head of precious metals research at Swiss investment bank and London market-maker Credit Suisse, who declared the End of an Era for Gold in a Feb.2013 report to clients. "No, is our unequivocal answer...A strengthening US economy will likely see [rising] yields in a low inflation environment...On its current trend, gold will trade below $1000 before the end of the year," says Kendall, one of the three most bearish analysts, who see the price touching $950 in 2014. "The key danger for gold," agrees UBS's precious metals strategist Edel Tully, who won the LBMA's gold price forecast in 2011, "lies with a market focus shifting from QE tapering to pricing in US interest rate hikes. "A return to [gold miner] hedging also threatens," says Tully, forecasting a gold price range of $1045-1400 with an average of $1200, in line with the LBMA forecast's consensus. The winner in gold for both 2012 and 2013, René Hochreiter now sees gold trading in a range of $1050-1250 per ounce – tighter than the 28-analyst consensus of $1067-1379. Overall, says Hochreiter of Johannesberg-based mining finance consultancy Allan Hochreiter Pty Ltd, the 2014 gold price will average $1150, down from last year's average of $1411. The consensus average is for $1219. Hochreiter is more bearish on silver, in which he also won in 2013, now forecasting an average 2014 price of $17.00, down from last year's $23.79, with a wide trading range of $12-23 per ounce. "Silver is notoriously volatile and prone to short covering rallies and heavy bouts of long liquidation," says Robin Bhar at Societe Generale, the only other LBMA-member analyst amongst the 25 covering silver to forecast such a wide range, and again seeing volatility between $12 and $23 per ounce. Despite "some investor appetite for silver" in 2014, says Bhar, "much of [the market] surplus will have to go into industry or dealer stocks." The average platinum price will be flat at $1490, according to the average forecast for the LBMA's 2014 competition. Palldium – the only precious metal to rise in 2013 – will add almost 7% to average $775 per ounce, according to the analysts' mean forecast. |
| Economic Collapse 2014 -- Current Economic Collapse News Brief Posted: 21 Jan 2014 03:30 AM PST In this news brief we will discuss the latest news on the economic collapse. We look to see if things are really that different. The central bank will not stop at just confiscating your wealth they will want your life. They want to enslave the people. [[ This is a content summary only. Visit http://www.GoldSilverNewsBlog.com or http://www.newsbooze.com or http://www.figanews.com for full links, other content, and more! ]] |
| China Still Missing from Gold Price Posted: 21 Jan 2014 02:30 AM PST When will China's demand impact gold prices and make them rise...? WHILE the gold price has fallen from $1650 to $1180 over the last year, China has acquired perhaps 2,000 tonnes, writes Julian Phillips at the GoldForecaster, a remarkable feat. How long can the world's second-largest economy keep on doing this without the gold price rising rapidly? The short answer is, for as long as demand in the traditional markets is either lower or the same as supply. This has two aspects, first the potential for rising demand and second, the potential for falling supplies. The main traditional market is London, where supposedly 90% of physical gold is traded. China buys there, 'on the dips' by importers taking bulk supplies and shipping them to Hong Kong as stock for the distributors to the retail trade on the mainland. China's import stockpiles are replenished according to perceived future demand, hence the premiums that appear there. This gap above international prices works as to not push the base price higher. But Chinese importers buy large volumes from other sources, direct. Indian demand is primarily routed through the London market, via the banks that supply India. The world's former No.1 buyers are now locked out, however, by strict import restrictions. European and US physical demand also accesses much of its gold there too. These last two buyers have been negative for over two years now, supplying investment metal back to market but particularly in the last year. Will that demand pick up? For Europe and the US, we don't expect it to do so while US fund managers are selling gold from the gold exchange traded funds listed there, to switch into equities. European investors now expect the same economic outlook as we see in the US in the next two years, but we do not see selling in Europe at anywhere near US levels in 2013. As for India, government officials have already started saying they will be reducing import duties and easing import regulations on gold (and silver) "soon". We expect this to happen well before the elections in May this year. Potential demand from that source could be as high as 75 tonnes a month, or around 18 tonnes a week, up to 900 tonnes a year. This would swamp the market, where demand and supply are around the same levels currently. While this seems a fatuous question, it must be asked to understand Beijing's position. Right now, China is still developing its access to gold suppliers both in the traditional markets and outside of these markets. It cannot hold back retail demand because of price, and does not want to do that. Policy has been for households to acquire as much gold as they can. So the Beijing authorities accept the discipline of price. As a constant buyer, unless China forcefully regulates gold imports, it must allow access to all gold markets. This won't happen! |
| China Still Missing from Gold Price Posted: 21 Jan 2014 02:30 AM PST When will China's demand impact gold prices and make them rise...? WHILE the gold price has fallen from $1650 to $1180 over the last year, China has acquired perhaps 2,000 tonnes, writes Julian Phillips at the GoldForecaster, a remarkable feat. How long can the world's second-largest economy keep on doing this without the gold price rising rapidly? The short answer is, for as long as demand in the traditional markets is either lower or the same as supply. This has two aspects, first the potential for rising demand and second, the potential for falling supplies. The main traditional market is London, where supposedly 90% of physical gold is traded. China buys there, 'on the dips' by importers taking bulk supplies and shipping them to Hong Kong as stock for the distributors to the retail trade on the mainland. China's import stockpiles are replenished according to perceived future demand, hence the premiums that appear there. This gap above international prices works as to not push the base price higher. But Chinese importers buy large volumes from other sources, direct. Indian demand is primarily routed through the London market, via the banks that supply India. The world's former No.1 buyers are now locked out, however, by strict import restrictions. European and US physical demand also accesses much of its gold there too. These last two buyers have been negative for over two years now, supplying investment metal back to market but particularly in the last year. Will that demand pick up? For Europe and the US, we don't expect it to do so while US fund managers are selling gold from the gold exchange traded funds listed there, to switch into equities. European investors now expect the same economic outlook as we see in the US in the next two years, but we do not see selling in Europe at anywhere near US levels in 2013. As for India, government officials have already started saying they will be reducing import duties and easing import regulations on gold (and silver) "soon". We expect this to happen well before the elections in May this year. Potential demand from that source could be as high as 75 tonnes a month, or around 18 tonnes a week, up to 900 tonnes a year. This would swamp the market, where demand and supply are around the same levels currently. While this seems a fatuous question, it must be asked to understand Beijing's position. Right now, China is still developing its access to gold suppliers both in the traditional markets and outside of these markets. It cannot hold back retail demand because of price, and does not want to do that. Policy has been for households to acquire as much gold as they can. So the Beijing authorities accept the discipline of price. As a constant buyer, unless China forcefully regulates gold imports, it must allow access to all gold markets. This won't happen! |
| Economic Collapse 2014 -- Worldwide Physical Gold SHORTAGE Posted: 21 Jan 2014 02:30 AM PST Worldwide Physical Gold SHORTAGE The best "safes" (HA!) are PVC pipes, fitted, stuffed and buried. If worried, provide a description to heirs in language they would understand (the broken tree at dad's second favorite fishing hole). Using bank boxes is for fools as the smart know only... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit http://www.GoldSilverNewsBlog.com or http://www.newsbooze.com or http://www.figanews.com for full links, other content, and more! ]] |
| What 47 Years in Gold Says to Do Now Posted: 21 Jan 2014 02:22 AM PST Gold's down over 30%. You don't have enough today... IF YOU'VE owned gold since 2011, you've been crushed, writes Steve Sjuggerud in his Daily Wealth. What to do now? Gold is down from a peak of around $1800 to around $1200 today. It's lost about a third of its value. Gold mining stocks have done much worse than gold itself. For example, a basket of junior gold stocks (GDXJ) is now down about 80% since gold peaked. Ouch! So...what should you do? Where to from here? I asked those questions to precious-metals expert Michael Checkan of Asset Strategies International at lunch over the weekend... Michael has worked in precious metals professionally longer than anyone I know. He started with the largest precious-metals firm in America back in 1967 – and he has been at it ever since. This history is important because Michael has personally lived and worked through ALL the ups and downs of the gold market – going back to the time when the Dollar went off the gold standard. So what is he thinking today? Michael had two main points... First, he said, we're near the cost of production for the major gold companies. Therefore, if gold falls below $1100 an ounce, then gold companies will lose money by producing gold. Michael is implying that the price of gold shouldn't fall dramatically below the cost of production, and it shouldn't stay there for very long. Why? Our old friend Rick Rule (founder of Sprott Global) says it best: "The cure for low prices is low prices." What he means is, if prices get so low that they drive everyone out of business, then soon prices will go up – because eventually you reach a point where there's more demand than supply. Michael Checkan's second point is that he sees gold as "portfolio insurance". And right now, odds are you don't have enough. As Michael explained it...If the value of your stock portfolio has gone up, and the value of your gold has gone down, you are likely under-invested in gold now. How much gold should you have as a percentage of your portfolio? And how should you own gold? Those two things are up to you, according to Michael. But in summary, the price of gold has fallen down to near the cost of production, which should provide a bit of a floor in the gold price. Also according to Michael, you should own gold as insurance with a percentage of your assets. Chances are you are underinvested in gold at the moment and need to rebalance. That's the story over lunch from a man who has been in the industry for 47 years. |
| What 47 Years in Gold Says to Do Now Posted: 21 Jan 2014 02:22 AM PST Gold's down over 30%. You don't have enough today... IF YOU'VE owned gold since 2011, you've been crushed, writes Steve Sjuggerud in his Daily Wealth. What to do now? Gold is down from a peak of around $1800 to around $1200 today. It's lost about a third of its value. Gold mining stocks have done much worse than gold itself. For example, a basket of junior gold stocks (GDXJ) is now down about 80% since gold peaked. Ouch! So...what should you do? Where to from here? I asked those questions to precious-metals expert Michael Checkan of Asset Strategies International at lunch over the weekend... Michael has worked in precious metals professionally longer than anyone I know. He started with the largest precious-metals firm in America back in 1967 – and he has been at it ever since. This history is important because Michael has personally lived and worked through ALL the ups and downs of the gold market – going back to the time when the Dollar went off the gold standard. So what is he thinking today? Michael had two main points... First, he said, we're near the cost of production for the major gold companies. Therefore, if gold falls below $1100 an ounce, then gold companies will lose money by producing gold. Michael is implying that the price of gold shouldn't fall dramatically below the cost of production, and it shouldn't stay there for very long. Why? Our old friend Rick Rule (founder of Sprott Global) says it best: "The cure for low prices is low prices." What he means is, if prices get so low that they drive everyone out of business, then soon prices will go up – because eventually you reach a point where there's more demand than supply. Michael Checkan's second point is that he sees gold as "portfolio insurance". And right now, odds are you don't have enough. As Michael explained it...If the value of your stock portfolio has gone up, and the value of your gold has gone down, you are likely under-invested in gold now. How much gold should you have as a percentage of your portfolio? And how should you own gold? Those two things are up to you, according to Michael. But in summary, the price of gold has fallen down to near the cost of production, which should provide a bit of a floor in the gold price. Also according to Michael, you should own gold as insurance with a percentage of your assets. Chances are you are underinvested in gold at the moment and need to rebalance. That's the story over lunch from a man who has been in the industry for 47 years. |
| This Is The Greatest Financial Market And Currency Manipulation Of All Times Posted: 21 Jan 2014 02:14 AM PST In a week that has been marked by astonishing mainstream headlines, BFI Capital’s CEO Frank Suess happened to give an outstanding interview about the outlook for global currencies, gold and manipulation in the markets. Consider the following headlines. They may have come at an unexpected timing, in the light of the economic recovery story, but they were for sure unavoidable:
The most remarkable event of the past week was the Federal Reserve investigating whether traders at the world's biggest banks havebeen rigging currency rates. According to Bloomberg, the Fed is probing whether traders shared information that may have let them manipulate prices in the $5.3 trillion-a-day foreign-exchange market for profit maximization (source). Also during the past week, US Regulators have been examining traders at Deutsche Bank, Citigroup, and HSBC. On top of that, Germany's top financial regulator Bafin made a public statement, warning the manipulation of currency rates and precious metals prices could be worse than the Libor-rigging scandal. Bafin confirmed its firm is investigating currency trading, joining regulators in the UK, US and Switzerland (source). These developments are significant and could mark a tipping point. Up until now, the currency and precious metals manipulation has been a topic associated with conspiracy theorists in the corners of the blogosphere. With regard to the signs of manipulation, Bafin’s president Elke Koenig said that "It is understandable that the issue is causing such a public reaction. The financial sector is dependent on the common trust that it is efficient and at the same time, honest. The central benchmark rates seemed to be beyond any doubt, and now there is the allegation they may have been manipulated." The interesting fact is that this news breaks out exactly at the time when most people are being trapped into the “economic recovery” news. With the markets hanging at the lips of the central bankers, it is fair to say that “the central banks are the markets.” Frank Suess points out that, for several decades now, central banks around the world, with the US Federal Reserve in the lead, haven’t allowed business and credit cycles to happen anymore. In fact, they have been fighting consistently every sign of recession with more money, resulting in a race to the bottom of world currencies. The effect of this on world currencies is that they are shuffling each other down in a see-saw pattern, a phenomenon that has become visible in the US dollar, the euro, the yen and the British Pound. With the US dollar in the lead, all other currencies can only follow the same path. The yen, as a text book example, has lost more than 20% against the dollar over the past year, and this is putting a lot of pressure on currencies across Asia. “We are now seeing huge capital outflows due to that from from many countries in Asia. That creates investment opportunities, you can invest in the Japanese stock markets going up nicely right now as long as you hedge against the yen on the downside.” But, in reality, we are really witnessing the greatest financial market and currency manipulation of all times, observes Frank Suess. “Central banks are just suppressing interest rates across the yield curve with the seemingly endless money supply. If you ask me which currencies are going to be devalued most considerably, I guess it is hard to find currencies that are not being devalued considerably. If you want to take advantage of currencies, you must protect yourself or benefit in that “see-saw” pattern.” Even the Swiss franc or the Norwegian krone are pulled into this, even though fundamentally those economies are still quite strong (both economies have budget surpluses and Switzerland was again voted number one in terms of economic competitiveness by the World Economic Forum, facing only 3% unemployment). There is clearly a delinkage between fundamental and fiscal strength, even in the fundamentally strongest currencies. Therefore the large currencies with their debt problems and monetary expansion are pulling everyone down. More specifically in Europe, where Frank Suess’ BFI Capital is based, the struggle over the euro could well reignite into a “fragmentation Europe.” At some point, it will not take that much for the debt crisis in Europe to kick back in. Investors around the world are hoping that the recovery story, which is being repeated like a mantra by central bankers, politicians, mainstream media, is going to hold. However, fundamentally, in terms of fiscal health, Europe and most other Western nations are not really in better shape than they were a few years back. “The future of the Euro could maybe be destroyed to some degree by the political tensions that you can expect to rise. Once that recovery story ends and reality kicks back in, I think the euro is anything but a blessing for the European Union.” In that respect, it is interesting to observe the peg of the Swiss franc against the euro. In reality, the peg is actually a floor, set at 1.20. At this point the Swiss franc to Euro is about a 1.23. Policy makers have been successfully defending that floor. “I think what they will do is exactly what we just discussed. While everyone keeps on depreciating their currency, the Swiss central bank will go along with that, except if the Euro really went into a steep fall (crisis). At a certain point, the floor will break and the Swiss franc, together with some other currencies, will rapidly appreciate.” Speaking of financial crises, shouldn’t the new regulations by the the Bank for International Settlements in their Basel III initiative prevent another crisis? Frank Suess considers the new regulations more as a farce, explaning that some of the accounting rules that have been put in place really do not add too much value in that respect. For example, looking at the risk-adjusted valuation of assets on the balance sheets of banks, it appears that some of the banks today say they have a 10% capital ratio where, in fact, they are still very similar to what they had back in 2008. “The more you look into the details, the more you really see that it is a fake leaf. I wouldn’t depend on Basel III for being able to prevent a crisis” The outlook of the ongoing currency devaluations and the signs of a failing financial system bring up the question how people can protect themselves. There is one currency that is not expected to go down, just by the mere fact that it is limited in supply. It is obviously gold. “You need to protect yourself with real assets. If you are going into gold or silver, you must be doing that with the allocated or segregated approach, not with the paper money approach. You don’t have to follow the mainstream too much, and have a hedge in place. That is where gold can play a role.” One of the companies in BFI’s wealth management group is Global Gold, founded in 2008, to meet the growing need to allocate parts of portfolios in the form of physically allocated gold and silver. Global Gold is a Swiss-based firm. It is leading in the international precious metals arena, offering storage in Switzerland, Hong Kong and Singapore. BFI Capital Group is a Swiss wealth management group with a number of different services and companies. They are all focused on international diversification, serving the growing investment needs of international clients looking for preservation of wealth overseas. BFI’s services focus primarily on investment management. Investors can also expect help in finding the appropriate custodian bank or brokers. BFI acts as an independent asset manager investing in assets, both discretionary and non-discretionary. Last but not least, the company offers traditional investment strategies, including defensive strategies which are based on a less optimistic view in the context of quantitative easing.
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| Silver Game Changer - Institutional Buying Posted: 21 Jan 2014 01:52 AM PST The key to investing in silver is getting in before the big gains are made. Even though the price of silver is up substantially in the past decade, it has only kept in par with the rise of the cost of energy. In 2004 the price of a barrel of Brent crude was $38 and silver was $6.67. Today the price of silver is $20.50 and Brent crude trading at an average $110 for the past month. Basically, the price of both have tripled in the past decade: |
| Posted: 20 Jan 2014 09:58 PM PST As the Fed runs low on ammunition to further suppress the gold price, Ian Gordon, founder and chairman of the Longwave Group, is extremely bullish on gold. In this interview with The Gold Report, he recounts his history of the manipulation of the gold price and its implications for the global economy. He also expands on research showing that juniors are more effective and cost efficient at making discoveries. The Gold Report: Gold was among the worst performing assets in 2013. How have its trading patterns and performance over the last two years informed your predictions for 2014? |
| Richard Russell - The Entire System May Collapse In 2014 Posted: 20 Jan 2014 09:01 PM PST With continued chaos around the world and uncertainty in global markets, today KWN is publishing an incredibly powerful piece that was written by a 60-year market veteran. The Godfather of newsletter writers, Richard Russell, has issued a dire warning, saying that the entire financial system may collapse as the sh*t hits the fan in 2014.This posting includes an audio/video/photo media file: Download Now |
| The Gold Price Closed at $1,251.90 Posted: 20 Jan 2014 08:06 PM PST Gold Price Close Today : 1,251.90 Change : 0.00 or 0.00% Silver Price Close Today : 20.30 Change : 0.00 or 0.00% Gold Silver Ratio Today : 61.66 Change : 0.00 or 0.00% Franklin didn't publish commentary today, if he publishes later it will be available here. Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought. - Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger The-MoneyChanger.com © 2014, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission. To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 18 ounces of silver. or 18 ounces of silver. US $ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down. WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned: Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures. NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps. NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced. NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt. What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands. One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose. |
| The Gold Price Closed at $1,251.90 Posted: 20 Jan 2014 08:05 PM PST Gold Price Close Today : 1,251.90 Change : 0.00 or 0.00% Silver Price Close Today : 20.30 Change : 0.00 or 0.00% Gold Silver Ratio Today : 61.66 Change : 0.00 or 0.00% Franklin didn't publish commentary today, if he publishes later it will be available here. Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought. - Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger The-MoneyChanger.com © 2014, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission. To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 18 ounces of silver. or 18 ounces of silver. US $ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down. WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned: Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures. NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps. NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced. NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt. What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands. One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose. |
| Another Financial Crisis Is Coming Posted: 20 Jan 2014 06:19 PM PST In their 2004 book The Coming Collapse of the Dollar, James Turk and John Rubino advised readers to bet against the housing bubble before it popped and to buy gold before it soared. Those were literally the two best investment ideas ... Read More... |
| How Long Can Gold Prices be Held Down? Posted: 20 Jan 2014 04:52 PM PST As we discussed in our last article, China has managed to acquire well over 2,000 tonnes of gold while the gold price has fallen from $1,650 to $1,180. This is a remarkable feat in itself. Read More... |
| German legislator seeks repatriation of all the Bundesbank's gold Posted: 20 Jan 2014 04:46 PM PST 4:45p PT Monday, January 20, 2014 Dear Friend of GATA and Gold: A member of the governing coalition in the German Parliament, Philip Missfelder, is calling for repatriation of all of the German Bundesbank's gold vaulted abroad, according to this report today by the German Internet site Die Freie Welt: http://www.freiewelt.net/nachricht/transatlantiker-fordert-deutsches-gol... CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer ADVERTISEMENT How to profit with silver -- Future Money Trends is offering a special 16-page silver report with our forecast for 2013 that includes profiles of nine companies and technical analysis of their stock performance. Six of the companies have market capitalizations of less than $800 million and one company has a market cap of only $30 million. The most exciting of these companies will begin production in a few weeks and has a market cap of just $150 million. Half of all proceeds from the sale of this report will be donated to the Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee to support its efforts exposing manipulation and fraud in the gold and silver markets. To learn about this report, please visit: http://www.futuremoneytrends.com/index.php?option=com_content&id=376&tmp... Join GATA here: Mines and Money Hong Kong http://www.minesandmoney.com/hongkong/ * * * Support GATA by purchasing DVDs of our London conference in August 2011 or our Dawson City conference in August 2006: http://www.goldrush21.com/order.html Or by purchasing a colorful GATA T-shirt: Or a colorful poster of GATA's full-page ad in The Wall Street Journal on January 31, 2009: http://gata.org/node/wallstreetjournal Help keep GATA going GATA is a civil rights and educational organization based in the United States and tax-exempt under the U.S. Internal Revenue Code. Its e-mail dispatches are free, and you can subscribe at: To contribute to GATA, please visit: ADVERTISEMENT Buy metals at GoldMoney and enjoy international storage GoldMoney was established in 2001 by James and Geoff Turk and safeguards more than $1.7 billion in metals and currencies. Buy gold, silver, platinum, and palladium from GoldMoney over the Internet and store them in vaults in Canada, Hong Kong, Singapore, Switzerland, and the United Kingdom, taking advantage of GoldMoney's low storage rates, among the most competitive in the industry. GoldMoney also offers delivery of 100-gram and 1-kilogram gold bars and 1-kilogram silver bars. To learn more, please visit: http://www.goldmoney.com/?gmrefcode=gata |
| Central banks soon will retreat to a higher level for gold suppression, Turk says Posted: 20 Jan 2014 04:40 PM PST 4:38p PT Monday, January 20, 2014 Dear Friend of GATA and Gold: GoldMoney founder and GATA consultant James Turk tells King World News today that central banks soon will be retreating to a higher level in their gold price suppression scheme: http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2014/1/20_Tu... CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer ADVERTISEMENT How to profit with silver -- Future Money Trends is offering a special 16-page silver report with our forecast for 2013 that includes profiles of nine companies and technical analysis of their stock performance. Six of the companies have market capitalizations of less than $800 million and one company has a market cap of only $30 million. The most exciting of these companies will begin production in a few weeks and has a market cap of just $150 million. Half of all proceeds from the sale of this report will be donated to the Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee to support its efforts exposing manipulation and fraud in the gold and silver markets. To learn about this report, please visit: http://www.futuremoneytrends.com/index.php?option=com_content&id=376&tmp... Join GATA here: Mines and Money Hong Kong http://www.minesandmoney.com/hongkong/ * * * Support GATA by purchasing DVDs of our London conference in August 2011 or our Dawson City conference in August 2006: http://www.goldrush21.com/order.html Or by purchasing a colorful GATA T-shirt: Or a colorful poster of GATA's full-page ad in The Wall Street Journal on January 31, 2009: http://gata.org/node/wallstreetjournal Help keep GATA going GATA is a civil rights and educational organization based in the United States and tax-exempt under the U.S. Internal Revenue Code. Its e-mail dispatches are free, and you can subscribe at: To contribute to GATA, please visit: ADVERTISEMENT Buy metals at GoldMoney and enjoy international storage GoldMoney was established in 2001 by James and Geoff Turk and safeguards more than $1.7 billion in metals and currencies. Buy gold, silver, platinum, and palladium from GoldMoney over the Internet and store them in vaults in Canada, Hong Kong, Singapore, Switzerland, and the United Kingdom, taking advantage of GoldMoney's low storage rates, among the most competitive in the industry. GoldMoney also offers delivery of 100-gram and 1-kilogram gold bars and 1-kilogram silver bars. To learn more, please visit: http://www.goldmoney.com/?gmrefcode=gata |
| Bitcoin Revolution -- BITCOIN - The PRO's & CON's Posted: 20 Jan 2014 04:30 PM PST U.S. prosecutors in Manhattan are sitting on a multimillion-dollar bitcoin gold mine. And it could get much bigger. Federal authorities hauled in 29,655 units of the digital currency -- worth $27 million at current exchange rates -- through an official forfeiture by Bitcoin this week. The... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit http://www.GoldSilverNewsBlog.com or http://www.newsbooze.com or http://www.figanews.com for full links, other content, and more! ]] |
| Posted: 20 Jan 2014 04:00 PM PST It should be more than apparent to investors in today's world that both anticipating and staying in harmony with the direction of currencies is crucial in the process of global asset allocation. As we look back at 2013, it seems clear that global central banker actions in large part helped shape investor behavior. |
| Gold Market – The Way The Tectonic Plates Are Shifting Still Has To Be Understood Posted: 20 Jan 2014 02:49 PM PST This article contains an excerpt from Grant Williams his latest economic newsletter Things That Make You Go Hmm (readers are recommended to subscribe). In July of 2013 I wrote a piece called “What If?” which I closed by asking the following question:
The centrepiece of that particular letter was a chart that plotted the gold holdings at the COMEX, the known holdings of gold ETFs, and the gold price. It also showed the moment when the Bundesbank made their now-famous request that 300 tonnes of gold be repatriated from the vault at the NY Fed to the Bundesbank in Frankfurt. I have had many requests to update that chart, so here it is: As you can see, not much has changed. ETF holdings have continued to decline, as has the gold price, while stocks at the COMEX have increased slightly. However, with the help of Nick Laird of Sharelynx (THE place to find any precious metals data), I’ll show you how even this situation may not be what it seems. Before we get to that, let’s recap the striking similarities between 1999 and 2013 to get a feel for what the events of this past year may mean going forward.
Gold imports into China through Hong Kong went through the roof. Massively inflated exports of gold from the UK to Switzerland (home of the world’s finest smelters) strongly suggested that bullion was being withdrawn from the LBMA warehouses and sent (via Switzerland) to China. Meanwhile, in India, despite frantic efforts by the government to stem the flow of gold, there was no stopping the tidal wave of demand for the yellow metal as insurance against a weakening rupee and … well, because to Indians gold IS money. But it’s the events at the COMEX warehouses that we’ll focus on next, because there are yet more strange shenanigans taking place that suggest all is not as it should be. First, it’s important to understand how gold is stored at those warehouses. There are two categories under which a holder can store gold at the COMEX warehouses: registered and eligible. Registered gold is that which has been registered with a bullion dealer and can be made available for delivery in the exercise of a COMEX futures contract. Eligible stocks conform to the standards of delivery, BUT they are not available for delivery into a futures contract that has been exercised. Eligible ounces can be moved quite easily to registered status via the issuance of a depository receipt or warrant by a bullion dealer, although the move in the opposite direction is a little more troublesome. With that explained, let’s take a look at the two categories as they stood at the end of 2013. We’ll begin with eligible ounces: As you can see, the number of eligible ounces in COMEX warehouses has climbed in recent months (as we saw in the overall numbers in the chart on page 15). This means that more gold is being removed from the deliverable gold stock and put safely into designated private hands. When we look at the registered stocks, however, we see the potential for a huge problem: In short, every ounce of registered physical metal in the warehouses has almost 120 paper claims on it via open-interest futures contracts. That means there may not be enough gold to go around if certain events transpire. Speculation about a failure to deliver on the COMEX has floated around many times before and has never come to anything; but as the registered stocks have continued to dwindle, I and many others have warned that just because it hasn’t mattered, definitely doesn’t mean it won’t. Well, this week Tres Knippa, a veteran futures trader, took a look at the registered stocks on the COMEX and outlined just how close to the bone things have gotten. According to Tres, with stocks on COMEX at the levels they have reached, if just a single entity were to demand physical delivery of a position-limit long in gold futures, meeting that demand would absorb 81% of the registered ounces left in the warehouse. But where has all this physical gold been going? Well, we’ve mentioned China and the increase in imports through Hong Kong, which incidentally looks like this: We’ve mentioned India’s stringent capital controls aimed at slowing the importing of gold, but all those have done (predictably) is send smuggling levels through the roof:
That suggests official data showing a sharp fall in gold buying, which has helped narrow India’s current account gap, may significantly underestimate the real level of gold flows. The World Gold Council estimates that 150 to 200 tonnes of smuggled gold will enter India in 2013, on top of the 900 tonnes of official demand. But the elephant in the room is that Bundesbank repatriation request; and as 2013 came to a close, things got even more intriguing as yet more inexplicable information came to light. You’ll remember that, when it demanded its 300 tonnes of gold back in January, the Bundesbank was told it would have to wait seven years. No explanation was given and, apparently, none was demanded. In “What If?” I did the math:
To avoid claims of bending the narrative to make a point, I went a step further:
But at the rate the gold actually came back to Germany in 2013 (from both New York and Paris), it will take much, much longer than seven years:
But in fact it gets much worse. This morning, an article appeared on Zerohedge suggesting that, of the 37 tonnes repatriated in 2013, 32 came from Paris — meaning that just 5 TONNES made its way across the Atlantic:
We wonder, how exactly is a gold transport “simpler” because it originates in Paris and not in New York? Supposedly, there was another reason: “The bullion stored in Paris already has the elongated shape with beveled edges of the ‘London Good Delivery’ standard. The bars in the basement of the Fed on the other hand have a previously common form. They will need to be remelted [to LGD standard]. And the capacity of smelters [is] just limited.” So… New York Fed-held gold is not London Good Delivery, and there is a bottleneck in remelting capacity? I’m not sure the EXACT thickness that is required of a plot to start people believing that there is something funny going on; but if we’re not there yet, I’m hopeful we’re not far away. Maybe one more ridiculous statement by one more central bank is all it will take to start the wheels turning in the media. We’ll see. Amongst the skeptical minority (in which I firmly place myself), the news of the paltry shipments to Germany was enough to fan all kinds of flames, but what happened next made it seem as though one of the following three things is true of these guys at the Bundesbank:
Now these revelations may not seem to amount to much, but they open yet another crazy can of worms and make it even harder to believe that the gold supposedly sitting in the vault at the NY Fed is actually there. Naturally, this information sparked a firestorm, and front and centre in that storm was Peter Boehringer, president of the German Precious Metal Society and co-initiator of the Repatriate our Gold campaign, who published an open list of questions raised by the Bundesbank’s curious behaviour: (Peter Boehringer): The public is still waiting for answers to crucial questions like these:
These central banks just refuse to help themselves, I’m afraid. They NEVER seem to do the transparent thing where gold is concerned, always leaving themselves open to accusations of foul play. Of course, what that MIGHT just mean is that there HAS been foul play and they have no alternative but to brazen it out and hide behind a wall of “no comments” and claims of a need for security. The gold in every central bank’s possession around the world is the property of the citizens of that country — not of the incumbent politicians or central bankers. Consequently, if the people want it audited, there shouldn’t be any reason to say no … unless… 2013 was an absolutely seismic year for gold, but the way in which the tectonic plates shifted has yet to be fully understood. I firmly believe that in the years to come, when we look back at the great game being played in gold, we will pinpoint January 16, 2013, as the day when it all began to unravel. That day, the day the Bundesbank blinked and demanded its bullion, will be shown to be the beginning of the end of the gold price suppression scheme by the world’s central banks; and then gold will go on to trade much, much higher. The evidence of suppression is everywhere, though most refuse to believe their elected officials are capable of such subterfuge. However, the recent numerous scandals in the financial world are slowly forcing people to realize that anything and everything can be manipulated. Libor, mortgage rates, FX — all were shown to be rigged markets, but NONE of them have the importance that gold has at the centre of the financial universe, yet all of them are far bigger markets than gold and therefore much harder to rig. Gold is a manipulated market. Period. 2013 was the year that manipulation finally began to unravel. 2014? Well now, THIS could be the year that true price discovery begins in the gold market. If that turns out to be the case, it will be driven by a scramble to perfect ownership of physical gold; and to do that you will be forced to pay a lot more than $1247/oz. This article contains an excerpt from Grant Williams his latest economic newsletter Things That Make You Go Hmm (readers are recommended to subscribe). |
| 2013: A Successful Year of Price-Suppression, Part I Posted: 20 Jan 2014 02:12 PM PST There must certainly be times when regular (and objective) readers ask themselves if it is not me who is "living in fantasy-land" rather than – as alleged again and again in these commentaries – the drones of the mainstream media. There was an example today of an item from Bloomberg (and the "statistic" it contained) which might create such doubts in readers' minds. Wholesale prices in the U.S. climbed in December for the first time in three months to cap the smallest annual increase in five years, showing companies face little pressure to charge more… [emphasis mine] Where is the "hyperinflation" which I (and John Williams, and others) insist is already 'in the pipes' of the global monetary/financial system? While readers have seen a chart (on numerous occasions) showing U.S. money-printing in an exponential spiral – a near-vertical line, to be precise – we see wholesale prices actually moving in the opposite direction. How is this possible? Or, put another way, who is telling the truth? To answer these questions; let me ask an additional and more specific question. Why do precious metals prices not reveal the hyperinflationary pressures which are alleged to exist? Regular readers and knowledgeable precious metals investors would have no difficulty answering that question in a convincing manner: price-suppression. Over recent years; readers have been supplied with overwhelming evidence of price-suppression/manipulation in precious metals markets, and in a variety of different forms: 1) Bullion-leasing fraud 2) Regulatory malfeasance 3) Falsified data/statistics 4) Outrageous ratios of paper to bullion in markets 5) The collapse of global inventories of gold and silver Overlaid on top of this; we have the daily price-action in these markets: endless, repetitive examples of vertical lines, as prices "gap" lower (and sometimes) higher in these large, global futures markets. Here readers need to know the history (and math) behind these futures markets. Why do we even allow these fantasy-markets, where the paper traded by the banker-gamblers of the 21st century exceeds the actual commodities they are trading by fantastic ratios, in the case of bullion, ratios of greater than 100-to-1? Because these very same banker-gamblers assured our governments and (supposed) regulators that these futures markets would bring much greater "liquidity", and thus near-perfect "price discovery". Translation? Futures markets should never gap higher or lower, with the rare exceptions of truly momentous events which can/could cause legitimate surges or plunges in price. The daily trading of the bankers themselves is empirical proof that these markets are being constantly manipulated. The outrageous/indefensible Pied Piper trading algorithms which these banksters use is the "smoking gun" which provides the unequivocal means to perpetrate such market crime. Thus do we have my broader answer (and rebuttal) to the original questions. Wholesale prices (and the commodities prices which underpin them) do not reveal the enormous hyperinflationary pressures created by the money-printing of our central banks because of the constant price-suppression of the One Bank – across virtually all commodity markets – which depresses the prices which should be indicating those pressures. Fortunately, there is equally compelling evidence to support my allegation that the same price-manipulation we see on a daily basis in precious metals markets extends across the entire spectrum of commodities. Once again; it is the daily trading of the banksters themselves which provides us with absolutely conclusive evidence. |
| Central Banks, Gold & the Currency Market, Part II Posted: 20 Jan 2014 01:14 PM PST Yes, governments plainly manipulate markets all the time. They also hold gold... The LATEST TARGET of governmental investigation and criminalization are foreign exchange traders at the big banks, writes Miguel Perez-Santalla at Bullionvault in the second part of this essay on central banks, currencies and gold. No matter that manipulating underlying rates or direction in the foreign exchange markets is close to impossible. What it is currently being alleged is the idea that the FX market "fixing price" is being manipulated. These rates are set by market trading during a one-minute window, across three different trading platforms, averaged out by an independent company at which time the news agency Reuters publishes the data. To make it clear, during that one-minute period actual transactions occur between trading parties. The prices of these transactions are transparent because they are posted on the market trading systems, which make it public knowledge as they occur. All the actual prices at which transactions were negotiated are then tabulated into an average price and posted. The posted price is a reference price that is used by many to settle outstanding orders that were left for the fixing. Whatever the outcome of this latest attack, central banks – who are taking a lead role in investigating the banks – plainly hold the power to manipulate (or control) markets without anyone saying they shouldn't. Setting interest rates and buying bonds while releasing more money into the economy, their actions are instead called "easing". On the other hand, government and the central bank can of course use their policing power to bully the markets by restrictive policies or regulations. Witness the "short selling bans" imposed during the worst of the financial crisis in 2008, apparently to protect banking stocks from hedge funds, but attempting instead to prevent the market from clearing at a freely-decided price. Similar blocks were applied across the Eurozone during their 2010-2012 credit crisis too, with traders banned from profiting if weaker government bonds fell. Venezuela, while under the tutelage of the late, unlamented Hugo Chavez, was driven into the worst economic environment in its history following such policies. Exchange controls and other blocks on what citizens could do with their money led the economy to stall and then shrink. Further attacking his own country's economic growth by seizing foreign-owned assets, and so blocking that flow of free trade and capital which leads to prosperity, the Chavez government began to fear reprisals by foreign governments. So they moved their national gold reserves from the vaults in the Bank of England in London, heart of the world's bullion market, back to Venezuela. That cut them off from the international market entirely. Chavez's government fixed the currency rate, which with restrictions on the trade and flow of money as a consequence created a parallel (or black) market. Untrusted and closed to the world's free markets, Venezuela lost its access to international credit, damaging its economy yet further. If Venezuela were to get back into the business of allowing prosperity to flourish under the guidance of hard working business, then sending some of their gold back into a major Western bullion market would be a good first step. Indeed, recent reports from Caracas say that is what the government will do, raising cash from Goldman Sachs through a "gold swap". This is a great example of why central banks hold gold, and why most hold a portion of their reserves outside their own borders, ready for use in a major center. Gold, the one commodity that has never seen a complete decline in demand, is a vital form of guarantee between countries, enabling those with tenuous economies and collapsing markets to revive credit and trade. The USA holds the largest gold reserves in the world and maintains 8,133 tonnes of gold currently priced at $42.22 per ounce. Germany holds the second largest reserves with 3,387 tonnes of gold. Incidentally it is no surprise that these holdings have enabled these countries to be the most powerful economies in the world. It is clear that gold has not lost its allure to the rest of the world's central banks either. Though the price does not determine central bank activity in buying or selling gold, it is no doubt that "Gordon Brown has had many sleepless nights," as George Milling Stanley put it in a recent interview with Bullionvault's New York Markets Live. Brown decided to sell half of the UK's national gold stocks at an average price of $275 per ounce. Even after falling more than 35% from its 2011 peak, the price today is over four times that level. George Milling Stanley also told us that the growing emerging market economies will continue to buy gold for their national reserves as well, to grow their overall strength in the global forum. For instance China. The world's second-largest economy may have increased its reserves to 2,710 tonnes, up from 600 tonnes a decade ago, according to Kenneth Hoffman, a senior analyst at Bloomberg Industries. If correct, that would make China's national gold bullion reserves the third largest behind the US and Germany. For comparison, the average gold holding of the top 100 central banks is 15% of reserves. Yet many of the largest Asian central banks, including China, hold less than 5% in gold, based on data on the World Gold Council's website. This lack of equilibrium is why they will continue to work on building these holdings on their balance sheet into the future. As central banks and governments work to protect themselves from unknown currency or economic crisis, by holding gold as part of their crucial reserves does it not make it abundantly clear that we should too as private individuals? |
| Central Banks, Gold & the Currency Market, Part II Posted: 20 Jan 2014 01:14 PM PST Yes, governments plainly manipulate markets all the time. They also hold gold... The LATEST TARGET of governmental investigation and criminalization are foreign exchange traders at the big banks, writes Miguel Perez-Santalla at Bullionvault in the second part of this essay on central banks, currencies and gold. No matter that manipulating underlying rates or direction in the foreign exchange markets is close to impossible. What it is currently being alleged is the idea that the FX market "fixing price" is being manipulated. These rates are set by market trading during a one-minute window, across three different trading platforms, averaged out by an independent company at which time the news agency Reuters publishes the data. To make it clear, during that one-minute period actual transactions occur between trading parties. The prices of these transactions are transparent because they are posted on the market trading systems, which make it public knowledge as they occur. All the actual prices at which transactions were negotiated are then tabulated into an average price and posted. The posted price is a reference price that is used by many to settle outstanding orders that were left for the fixing. Whatever the outcome of this latest attack, central banks – who are taking a lead role in investigating the banks – plainly hold the power to manipulate (or control) markets without anyone saying they shouldn't. Setting interest rates and buying bonds while releasing more money into the economy, their actions are instead called "easing". On the other hand, government and the central bank can of course use their policing power to bully the markets by restrictive policies or regulations. Witness the "short selling bans" imposed during the worst of the financial crisis in 2008, apparently to protect banking stocks from hedge funds, but attempting instead to prevent the market from clearing at a freely-decided price. Similar blocks were applied across the Eurozone during their 2010-2012 credit crisis too, with traders banned from profiting if weaker government bonds fell. Venezuela, while under the tutelage of the late, unlamented Hugo Chavez, was driven into the worst economic environment in its history following such policies. Exchange controls and other blocks on what citizens could do with their money led the economy to stall and then shrink. Further attacking his own country's economic growth by seizing foreign-owned assets, and so blocking that flow of free trade and capital which leads to prosperity, the Chavez government began to fear reprisals by foreign governments. So they moved their national gold reserves from the vaults in the Bank of England in London, heart of the world's bullion market, back to Venezuela. That cut them off from the international market entirely. Chavez's government fixed the currency rate, which with restrictions on the trade and flow of money as a consequence created a parallel (or black) market. Untrusted and closed to the world's free markets, Venezuela lost its access to international credit, damaging its economy yet further. If Venezuela were to get back into the business of allowing prosperity to flourish under the guidance of hard working business, then sending some of their gold back into a major Western bullion market would be a good first step. Indeed, recent reports from Caracas say that is what the government will do, raising cash from Goldman Sachs through a "gold swap". This is a great example of why central banks hold gold, and why most hold a portion of their reserves outside their own borders, ready for use in a major center. Gold, the one commodity that has never seen a complete decline in demand, is a vital form of guarantee between countries, enabling those with tenuous economies and collapsing markets to revive credit and trade. The USA holds the largest gold reserves in the world and maintains 8,133 tonnes of gold currently priced at $42.22 per ounce. Germany holds the second largest reserves with 3,387 tonnes of gold. Incidentally it is no surprise that these holdings have enabled these countries to be the most powerful economies in the world. It is clear that gold has not lost its allure to the rest of the world's central banks either. Though the price does not determine central bank activity in buying or selling gold, it is no doubt that "Gordon Brown has had many sleepless nights," as George Milling Stanley put it in a recent interview with Bullionvault's New York Markets Live. Brown decided to sell half of the UK's national gold stocks at an average price of $275 per ounce. Even after falling more than 35% from its 2011 peak, the price today is over four times that level. George Milling Stanley also told us that the growing emerging market economies will continue to buy gold for their national reserves as well, to grow their overall strength in the global forum. For instance China. The world's second-largest economy may have increased its reserves to 2,710 tonnes, up from 600 tonnes a decade ago, according to Kenneth Hoffman, a senior analyst at Bloomberg Industries. If correct, that would make China's national gold bullion reserves the third largest behind the US and Germany. For comparison, the average gold holding of the top 100 central banks is 15% of reserves. Yet many of the largest Asian central banks, including China, hold less than 5% in gold, based on data on the World Gold Council's website. This lack of equilibrium is why they will continue to work on building these holdings on their balance sheet into the future. As central banks and governments work to protect themselves from unknown currency or economic crisis, by holding gold as part of their crucial reserves does it not make it abundantly clear that we should too as private individuals? |
| Central Banks, Gold & the Currency Market, Part II Posted: 20 Jan 2014 01:14 PM PST Yes, governments plainly manipulate markets all the time. They also hold gold... The LATEST TARGET of governmental investigation and criminalization are foreign exchange traders at the big banks, writes Miguel Perez-Santalla at Bullionvault in the second part of this essay on central banks, currencies and gold. No matter that manipulating underlying rates or direction in the foreign exchange markets is close to impossible. What it is currently being alleged is the idea that the FX market "fixing price" is being manipulated. These rates are set by market trading during a one-minute window, across three different trading platforms, averaged out by an independent company at which time the news agency Reuters publishes the data. To make it clear, during that one-minute period actual transactions occur between trading parties. The prices of these transactions are transparent because they are posted on the market trading systems, which make it public knowledge as they occur. All the actual prices at which transactions were negotiated are then tabulated into an average price and posted. The posted price is a reference price that is used by many to settle outstanding orders that were left for the fixing. Whatever the outcome of this latest attack, central banks – who are taking a lead role in investigating the banks – plainly hold the power to manipulate (or control) markets without anyone saying they shouldn't. Setting interest rates and buying bonds while releasing more money into the economy, their actions are instead called "easing". On the other hand, government and the central bank can of course use their policing power to bully the markets by restrictive policies or regulations. Witness the "short selling bans" imposed during the worst of the financial crisis in 2008, apparently to protect banking stocks from hedge funds, but attempting instead to prevent the market from clearing at a freely-decided price. Similar blocks were applied across the Eurozone during their 2010-2012 credit crisis too, with traders banned from profiting if weaker government bonds fell. Venezuela, while under the tutelage of the late, unlamented Hugo Chavez, was driven into the worst economic environment in its history following such policies. Exchange controls and other blocks on what citizens could do with their money led the economy to stall and then shrink. Further attacking his own country's economic growth by seizing foreign-owned assets, and so blocking that flow of free trade and capital which leads to prosperity, the Chavez government began to fear reprisals by foreign governments. So they moved their national gold reserves from the vaults in the Bank of England in London, heart of the world's bullion market, back to Venezuela. That cut them off from the international market entirely. Chavez's government fixed the currency rate, which with restrictions on the trade and flow of money as a consequence created a parallel (or black) market. Untrusted and closed to the world's free markets, Venezuela lost its access to international credit, damaging its economy yet further. If Venezuela were to get back into the business of allowing prosperity to flourish under the guidance of hard working business, then sending some of their gold back into a major Western bullion market would be a good first step. Indeed, recent reports from Caracas say that is what the government will do, raising cash from Goldman Sachs through a "gold swap". This is a great example of why central banks hold gold, and why most hold a portion of their reserves outside their own borders, ready for use in a major center. Gold, the one commodity that has never seen a complete decline in demand, is a vital form of guarantee between countries, enabling those with tenuous economies and collapsing markets to revive credit and trade. The USA holds the largest gold reserves in the world and maintains 8,133 tonnes of gold currently priced at $42.22 per ounce. Germany holds the second largest reserves with 3,387 tonnes of gold. Incidentally it is no surprise that these holdings have enabled these countries to be the most powerful economies in the world. It is clear that gold has not lost its allure to the rest of the world's central banks either. Though the price does not determine central bank activity in buying or selling gold, it is no doubt that "Gordon Brown has had many sleepless nights," as George Milling Stanley put it in a recent interview with Bullionvault's New York Markets Live. Brown decided to sell half of the UK's national gold stocks at an average price of $275 per ounce. Even after falling more than 35% from its 2011 peak, the price today is over four times that level. George Milling Stanley also told us that the growing emerging market economies will continue to buy gold for their national reserves as well, to grow their overall strength in the global forum. For instance China. The world's second-largest economy may have increased its reserves to 2,710 tonnes, up from 600 tonnes a decade ago, according to Kenneth Hoffman, a senior analyst at Bloomberg Industries. If correct, that would make China's national gold bullion reserves the third largest behind the US and Germany. For comparison, the average gold holding of the top 100 central banks is 15% of reserves. Yet many of the largest Asian central banks, including China, hold less than 5% in gold, based on data on the World Gold Council's website. This lack of equilibrium is why they will continue to work on building these holdings on their balance sheet into the future. As central banks and governments work to protect themselves from unknown currency or economic crisis, by holding gold as part of their crucial reserves does it not make it abundantly clear that we should too as private individuals? |
| Why The Bundesbank Is repatriating Its Gold So Slowly Posted: 20 Jan 2014 01:11 PM PST This is a guest post from Bron Suchecki, editor at Goldchat and strategic planner at The Perth Mint in Australia. I’ll take it as given that readers are aware of the German gold repatriation, which was driven by the release in October 2012 of a report by the Federal Audit Office that contained criticism of the way the Bundesbank managed its overseas gold reserves. The goldbug spin on this is that it shows that Germany doesn’t trust the US or the Fed. I agree with Jim Rickards, as paraphrased by GATA, “that Germany’s Bundesbank really doesn’t want any of its gold returned from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and has arranged for the return of a small part of it only as a political sop to agitation in Germany’s parliament.” (see this story CDU Politician Wants to Bring German Gold Home for an example of that political agitation.) It is worth noting that “the Audit Court can only give recommendations and can’t legally force the Bundesbank to act” so they could have ignored the calls for repatriation. However, as a result of the political fallout of the auditor report, the Bundesbank decided that “despite our different view of the law, the Bundesbank will, where possible, take up the audit court’s suggestions”. In support of Jim’s idea that it is just to pacify local domestic politics, consider this speech in New York in November 2012 by Dr Andreas Dombret (Board Member of the Bundesbank). If you read the whole thing it certainly doesn’t sound like there is any distrust. Some key quotes:
Some may say that this is just what is said in public, but that behind the scenes they really don’t trust the US Fed. Possibly, but I think that central bankers are all of the same mindset and values, part of the same club – Andreas wants to thank his mate Bill personally. I doubt that the German central bankers put on a show to their fellow central bankers but really believe in the gold standard. In his talk, Andreas says that gold is important but that “we have to combat a crisis of confidence in the euro area. This is the task we need to concentrate on”. Confidence in fiat is more important to these guys. This then leads me on to the amount and timing of gold being repatriated. I cannot find any evidence that the rate of repatriation was at the Fed’s insistence – this seems to be an assumption by goldbugs. Considering they trust their mates at the Fed, and are being forced to do it politically, my view is that the rate was decided by the Bundesbank. As Deutsche Bank analysts said, “we believe that the slow transfer of gold … is partly a reflection of its wish to avoid any perception of a change in confidence in the US Fed”. Confidence is what is important, and confidence in the US dollar is realted to confidence in the Euro as they are both fiats. Also, consider that the logistics and security of moving gold are complicated and expensive. As Forbes notes:
Then you have the issue that most of the gold they accumulated was during the 1950s and 1960s (see Andreas’ talk) so the bar would not meet current wholesale market standards. Again, the Deutsche Bank analysts: “We believe much of the gold held in NY is old, known as 'Fed Melts' or 'Deep Storage' bars and may not be acceptable as is for transaction without additional processing” and that a “secondary factor could perhaps be the reluctance to put undue strain on the gold refining sector”. As a side point, if “they have no intention of selling gold” (link) then I think it is worth asking why does the gold needs to be recast to current standards? So if you step into the shoes of a central banker, who enjoy their “independence” of politics, you can see that the audit report and the resulting political storm could be considered an annoyance and affront to their independence. They then see that there is significant cost and security risks to moving the gold so naturally there is resistance to having to concede to the demands for repatriation, the arguments for which are “not really convincing” to them. As final proof of this reluctance (“where possible [we will] take up the audit court’s suggestions”), we now have reports that they only took 5 tonnes from the US and 32 tonnes from France. Does that rate of actual repatriation sound like someone worried about their fellow central banking mates? Should they keep their reserves in Germany? In my opinon, all countries should. Does it make sense that the Fed doesn’t allow viewings “in the interest of security and of the control process” when they allow tourists to see the vault? In my opinon, no. Is it acceptable that the Bundesbank just trusts a custodian and accepts as an appropriate auditing process:
In my opinon, no. But it is clear to me that their public statements and (lack of) action reflect the fact that they consider the repatriation as “irrational” rather than showing any distrust in the US or France central banks. |
| Turk - The Silver Spike Is Going To Shock The World In 2014 Posted: 20 Jan 2014 12:19 PM PST As markets continue to see some wild trading as we start 2014, today James Turk told King World News that a massive spike in the price of silver is going to shock the world in 2014. Turk also warned about central planners' desire to control humanity through banking and currencies, and also included a fantastic chart of silver.This posting includes an audio/video/photo media file: Download Now |
| Bob Quartermain: “The Real Rewards Are Offered From Solid Projects Backed By Solid People” Posted: 20 Jan 2014 11:22 AM PST
I had the chance recently to reconnect with Bob Quartermain, President and CEO of Pretium Resources. It was an interesting conversation, as Bob and the Pretium Resources team recently announced the final results of a 10,000 ton bulk sample program and updated mineral resource for the company's flagship Brucejack gold project. It should also be noted that during the final months of 2014, a number of class action suits arose against the company, amid a period of "academic discussion [and debate]," as one fund manager noted, regarding the reliability of the company's previously assembled geological model. Speaking towards the litany of class suits announced against the group during Q4, Bob said, "We've seen This posting includes an audio/video/photo media file: Download Now |
| Embry on Deutsche Bank's gold fixing exit; von Greyerz on gold's upward turn Posted: 20 Jan 2014 11:07 AM PST 11a PT Monday, January 20, 2014 Dear Friend of GATA and Gold: Sprott Asset Management's John Embry tells King World News today that the withdrawal of Deutsche Bank from the daily London gold fixing may foreshadow fireworks for the metal just as the withdrawal of Rothschild's from the fixing did a decade ago: http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2014/1/20_Th... And Swiss gold fund manager Egon von Greyerz tells KWN that the world's economic troubles will support an upside reversal in gold this year: http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2014/1/20_Fr... At GoldSwitzerland's Internet site, von Greyerz makes a detailed presentation explaining why gold is "the safest asset in an unsafe world": http://goldswitzerland.com/gold-will-reign-as-currencies-stocks-and-bond... CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer ADVERTISEMENT A Personal Touch in Buying Precious Metals If you've not secured your allocation of precious metals and numismatic coins, 2014 may be the last year to get them at affordable and undervalued prices. With huge amounts of gold leaving the West for Asia, the future availability of precious metals is very much in doubt. All Pro Gold has competitive pricing on all bullion and numismatic products -- and offers prompt delivery too. Long-time GATA supporters Fred Goldstein and Tim Murphy are glad to answer any questions or concerns about acquiring the monetary metals. All Pro Gold has an extensive electronic library of articles from the world's top market analysts. Learn more at www.allprogold.com or write to Fred and Tim at info@allprogold.com or telephone them at 1-855-377-4653. Join GATA here: Vancouver Resource Investment Conference http://www.cambridgehouse.com/event/vancouver-resource-investment-confer... GATA Reception in Vancouver Mines and Money Hong Kong http://www.minesandmoney.com/hongkong/ * * * Support GATA by purchasing DVDs of our London conference in August 2011 or our Dawson City conference in August 2006: http://www.goldrush21.com/order.html Or by purchasing a colorful GATA T-shirt: Or a colorful poster of GATA's full-page ad in The Wall Street Journal on January 31, 2009: http://gata.org/node/wallstreetjournal Help keep GATA going GATA is a civil rights and educational organization based in the United States and tax-exempt under the U.S. Internal Revenue Code. Its e-mail dispatches are free, and you can subscribe at: To contribute to GATA, please visit: ADVERTISEMENT Jim Sinclair plans seminars in Asheville and Austin Gold advocate and mining entrepreneur Jim Sinclair will hold his next market seminars from 2 to 6 p.m. Saturday, January 25, at the Clarion Inn Asheville, 550 Airport Road, Fletcher, North Carolina, and from 2 to 6 p.m. Saturday, February 8, at the Austin, Texas, Airport Hilton. Advance registration is required. Details for the Asheville seminar are posted at Sinclair's Internet site, JSMineSet.com, here: http://www.jsmineset.com/2014/01/07/north-carolina-qa-session-venue-conf... Details for the Austin seminar are posted at JSMineSet.com here: http://www.jsmineset.com/2014/01/02/austin-texas-qa-session-confirmed/ |
| Gold Bars at NY Fed "Need Recasting", Says Bundesbank Posted: 20 Jan 2014 10:26 AM PST Gold bars owned by Germany's central bank fail London Good Delivery standards... GERMANY's central bank, the Bundesbank, is having gold bars it holds at the New York Federal Reserve melted and re-cast in Europe to meet market standards before taking them into storage in Frankfurt, a spokesperson has told German media. The second-largest national gold owner with 3,387 tonnes, the central bank announced in January 2013 that it would withdraw 30% of the gold bars Germany held in foreign central banks over the next 7 years, and hold them at home instead. But in December, the Bundesbank "let slip" that it had so far received only 32 tonnes of gold bars from the Banque de France in Paris, according to the Bild tabloid, and only 5 tonnes from the United States' New York Fed. At that rate, it would take until 2024 to remove all of the German gold now allocated in Paris, rather than 2020 as announced. Withdrawing 20% of Germany's New York-held bars as planned would take 60 years. Now wanting "to counter speculation" about these delays and the recasting process, according to Welt am Sonntag, the Bundesbank says this program only began in the autumn. Because "contracts had to be arranged" with shipping companies and refiners – arrangements apparently helped by the Swiss-based Bank of International Settlements. "Employees of the Bundesbank supervised the bars' removal from the New York Fed," the newspaper reports, "crossing those bar numbers off the vault's inventory lists." The gold bars so far delivered from Paris, Die Welt's Sunday edition goes on, already met the London Good Delivery standards required by the professional wholesale market worldwide. But the 5 tonnes of New York Fed material sent in 2013 conformed only to "previous" standards, and so had to be re-cast to gain that "ultimate authority" which London Good Delivery bars carry. Converting non-LGD bars into market-acceptable form – an aim set when the Bundesbank announced the re-allocation program in January 2013 – was done in Europe, according to yesterday's newspaper report, answering a point raised in December by German bloggers including the head of Gold-Action, a lobby group calling for external audits and the repatriation of all central-bank gold worldwide. So far, says Welt am Sonntag, the process has given the Bundesbank – which publicly asserted the validity and independence of its gold reserves management amid growing calls for more transparency in October 2012, three months before announcing the relocation plans – "no reason for complaint" against the New York Fed. "The weight and fineness of the gold bars agreed with the books." The Bundesbank now expects to receive between 30 and 50 tonnes of gold bars from the New York Fed's care in 2014, the newspaper's report concludes. Begun in the mid-18th century by the Bank of England, the Good Delivery list of refineries approved for making large wholesale gold bars acceptable to the London market has been managed since 1987 by the London Bullion Market Association. It removed large gold bars stamped as being manufactured by the US Assay Offices & Mint from the "current list" in 1997. Gold bars produced by the US Mint between 1934 and 1997 remain on the "former list" however, meaning they would be acceptable. Updating its website in January 2013, just as it announced Germany's 2020 relocation plan, the Bundesbank detailed how in the late 1960s it agreed to accept non-LGD gold bars into its New York Fed account, because the run on America's gold which eventually led to the collapse of the post-war Bretton Woods system had depleted the Federal Reserve's stockpile of Good Delivery metal. On having the bars then recast into acceptable form, the German central bank says, "the Fed compensated the Bundesbank for both the costs incurred from the melting process...and the discrepancy in the weight of the bars." |
| Gold Bars at NY Fed "Need Recasting", Says Bundesbank Posted: 20 Jan 2014 10:26 AM PST Gold bars owned by Germany's central bank fail London Good Delivery standards... GERMANY's central bank, the Bundesbank, is having gold bars it holds at the New York Federal Reserve melted and re-cast in Europe to meet market standards before taking them into storage in Frankfurt, a spokesperson has told German media. The second-largest national gold owner with 3,387 tonnes, the central bank announced in January 2013 that it would withdraw 30% of the gold bars Germany held in foreign central banks over the next 7 years, and hold them at home instead. But in December, the Bundesbank "let slip" that it had so far received only 32 tonnes of gold bars from the Banque de France in Paris, according to the Bild tabloid, and only 5 tonnes from the United States' New York Fed. At that rate, it would take until 2024 to remove all of the German gold now allocated in Paris, rather than 2020 as announced. Withdrawing 20% of Germany's New York-held bars as planned would take 60 years. Now wanting "to counter speculation" about these delays and the recasting process, according to Welt am Sonntag, the Bundesbank says this program only began in the autumn. Because "contracts had to be arranged" with shipping companies and refiners – arrangements apparently helped by the Swiss-based Bank of International Settlements. "Employees of the Bundesbank supervised the bars' removal from the New York Fed," the newspaper reports, "crossing those bar numbers off the vault's inventory lists." The gold bars so far delivered from Paris, Die Welt's Sunday edition goes on, already met the London Good Delivery standards required by the professional wholesale market worldwide. But the 5 tonnes of New York Fed material sent in 2013 conformed only to "previous" standards, and so had to be re-cast to gain that "ultimate authority" which London Good Delivery bars carry. Converting non-LGD bars into market-acceptable form – an aim set when the Bundesbank announced the re-allocation program in January 2013 – was done in Europe, according to yesterday's newspaper report, answering a point raised in December by German bloggers including the head of Gold-Action, a lobby group calling for external audits and the repatriation of all central-bank gold worldwide. So far, says Welt am Sonntag, the process has given the Bundesbank – which publicly asserted the validity and independence of its gold reserves management amid growing calls for more transparency in October 2012, three months before announcing the relocation plans – "no reason for complaint" against the New York Fed. "The weight and fineness of the gold bars agreed with the books." The Bundesbank now expects to receive between 30 and 50 tonnes of gold bars from the New York Fed's care in 2014, the newspaper's report concludes. Begun in the mid-18th century by the Bank of England, the Good Delivery list of refineries approved for making large wholesale gold bars acceptable to the London market has been managed since 1987 by the London Bullion Market Association. It removed large gold bars stamped as being manufactured by the US Assay Offices & Mint from the "current list" in 1997. Gold bars produced by the US Mint between 1934 and 1997 remain on the "former list" however, meaning they would be acceptable. Updating its website in January 2013, just as it announced Germany's 2020 relocation plan, the Bundesbank detailed how in the late 1960s it agreed to accept non-LGD gold bars into its New York Fed account, because the run on America's gold which eventually led to the collapse of the post-war Bretton Woods system had depleted the Federal Reserve's stockpile of Good Delivery metal. On having the bars then recast into acceptable form, the German central bank says, "the Fed compensated the Bundesbank for both the costs incurred from the melting process...and the discrepancy in the weight of the bars." |
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As we discussed in our last article, China has managed to acquire well over 2,000 tonnes of gold while the gold price has fallen from $1,650 to $1,180. This is a remarkable feat in itself.








As reported on KTAR FM radio, Phoenix, AZ., on January 17, 2014, the cyber attacks upon Target Inc., have Russian mafia fingerprints on the identity theft of over one hundred million Americans. If one knows their Russian history, we know that since the pretend collapse of the "former" Soviet Union, the KGB changed uniforms and ran the Russian mafia which also happens to be the origin source of Putin. The notorious Russian mafia, the Russian KGB, there is no difference. For that matter, the notorious drug running America mafia, the CIA (e.g. Air America, Iran-Contra, creation of the LA cocaine street, cocaine- dealing gangs), there is no difference. The CIA and the KGB do not work exclusively for their host nations. These two rogue organizations do the heavy lifting for the banksters who seek to subjugate humanity and impose a dramatic depopulation agenda. For Bible-believing Christians, I am sure that you will take note of how this is foretold in scripture. I will let all of you fill in the details on the Comment Board connected to this article.
UPDATE: Some chatter that the earlier drop occurred around a story on the overhauling the London Gold fix (amid all the manipulation talk).
















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