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Sunday, December 29, 2013

Gold World News Flash

Gold World News Flash


The Wisdom of Socrates with Peter Boghossian and Stefan Molyneux

Posted: 29 Dec 2013 12:30 AM PST

from Stefan Molyneux:

Stefan Molyneux guest hosts the Peter Schiff radio show and speaks with Peter Boghossian on the basics of the Socratic Method. Stefan also discusses governmental responses to gold backed alternative currencies and the fundamentals of love.

Taxing Financial Transactions – Why Did Interest Rates hit 200% in 1899

Posted: 28 Dec 2013 11:30 PM PST

from Armstrong Economics:

The European idea of taxing financial transactions is nothing new. The EU aims to tax financial institutions a minimum of 0.1% on purchases of shares, bonds and other securities, and a minimum of 0.01% on the notional amount of derivatives traded either on- or off-exchange. Historical evidence indicates that this will discourage foreign investment while increasing volatility and reducing liquidity. Our research has actually been confirmed by a recent Bank of Canada report went through a litany of cases, including a tax imposed by New York state from 1905 to 1981 and a Swedish tax imposed in 1984, and found that all seem to have raised volatility and reduced liquidity.

.In the US, during 1863, Congress imposed a 0.5% tax on speculative trades in gold, which was toughened up one year later in an attempt to keep the price of gold from exploding during the civil war with the introduction of paper currency. Like India today, the US was out to try to stop the rise in the value of gold. In response, gold immediately went from $198 to $250 in terms of greenbacks, which absolutely humiliated Congress forcing them to repealing the law just two weeks later.

Read More @ ArmstrongEconomics.org

Silver Stocks 5

Posted: 28 Dec 2013 09:00 PM PST

by Scott Wright, SilverBearCafe.com:

2013 has been a brutal year for silver. And a brutal year for a metal obviously doesn’t bode well for its mining stocks. Companies that have been exploring for deposits, developing mines, and producing silver have sadly become the pariahs of the markets. But if silver’s fortunes change in 2014, as they ought to, then right now could be one of the best buying opportunities of this entire secular bull market.

Unfortunately silver is currently in a sentiment wasteland. Even contemplating a foray into this metal, let alone its stocks, is a fool’s errand to the majority of mainstream investors. Their mindset is why bother wasting even a cent of precious capital investing in a sector led by an asset that’s down 36% on the year. It’s much more prudent to throw money at the ever-rising stock markets, right?

Read More @ SilverBearCafe.com

EARTH CHANGES: Scenic toll road that connects Tijuana, Ensenada COLLAPSES

Posted: 28 Dec 2013 08:41 PM PST

from 10 News:

SAN DIEGO – A scenic toll road that connects Tijuana to Ensenada collapsed early Saturday.

The collapse on the coastal road occurred at kilometer 93 + 500 near Ensenada, according to a report on Ensenada.net. The collapse appears to have been caused by a landslide under the coastal road.

Jean-Loup Bitterlin, the president of the Hotel Association of Ensenada told 10News the portion of road that collapsed was in process of being repaired. He says crews are going to have to build an alternate detour route so they can work on the repair site.

Read More @ 10News.com

Overstock CEO On Bitcoins, Gold, Austrian Economics, And… Zombies

Posted: 28 Dec 2013 08:18 PM PST

from ZeroHedge:

Patrick Byrne, the embattled CEO of Overstock.com, had plenty to say in a recent Fortune interview. The outspoken CEO, whose company recently became the first US retailer to accept Bitcoin (beginning later next year) aligns his beliefs with Ron Paul, holds enough gold that if “zombies walked the Earth,” he’d be taken care of. Byrne believes “the long-run value of all fiat money is zero,” adding that,”we’re not going to get rid of the Federal Reserve any time soon, so bitcoin is a step in the right direction.”

Read More @ ZeroHedge.com

Silver Update: Bankster Endgame

Posted: 28 Dec 2013 08:05 PM PST

from BrotherJohnF:

Released 12/22/13

Gold Confiscation & Its Consequences | Mike Maloney & James Turk

Posted: 28 Dec 2013 06:25 PM PST

In this video Mike Maloney of GoldSilver.com tells James Turk his thoughts on the likelihood of the US confiscating gold again.

[[ This is a content summary only. Visit http://www.GoldSilverNewsBlog.com or http://www.newsbooze.com or http://www.figanews.com for full links, other content, and more! ]]

The New New Great Game: Geography, Energy, The Dollar And Gold

Posted: 28 Dec 2013 06:08 PM PST

Submitted by Paul Mylchreest of Monument Securities

The New New Great Game: Geography, Energy, The Dollar and Gold (pdf link)

Sir Halford Mackinder's 1904 speach in which he outlined his "Heartland Theory" was a founding moment for geo-politics. He argued that control of the Eurasian landmass (Europe, Asia and the Middle East), which contained the bulk of the world's population and natural resources, was the major geo-political prize.

As time passed, energy (first crude oil then natural gas), became increasingly integral to this concept and its strategic significance cannot be overstated.

Remarkably, Mackinder's theory has remained equally valid, if not more so, in the modern era - although key "pivot areas" for exercising control have evolved. In addition to Central Asia and Trans-Caucasus in Mackinder's day, the oil producing nations of the Middle East took on increasing importance in the "New Great Game".

The geo-political confrontation between the US on one hand and China (in increasingly close cooperation with Russia) on the other, is evolving rapidly. We see a "New New Great Game" (NNGG) emerging and have "tweaked" the Heartland Theory to include.

An additional geographic "pivot", the South and East China Seas, due to their importance in terms of world trade, oil and gas reserves and numerous territorial claims.

A monetary "pivot", the dollar-based system of world trade and its reserve status. China is taking the lead role in pushing ahead with its strategy of dismantling the dollar's supremacy.

Geo-political tension in each of the pivot areas is escalating. For example Central Asia and Trans-Caucasus (Ukraine), Middle East (Iran) and South and East China Seas (Senkaku Islands). The rising powers, China and Russia, are adopting more aggressive geo-political tactics towards US/EU/NATO/Japanese interests. The more "dovish" US policy towards Iran, following the recent nuclear deal, is threatening to destabilise the decades-long status quo in diplomatic relations with Israel and Saudi Arabia.

Just about every aspect of the escalating geo-political tension has an energy element, either directly or indirectly. Viewed from a "Mackinderian" perspective, the strategic value of the energy sector is immense. It begs the question whether, after five years of underperformance, the equity market is under-pricing energy assets, including those deeply out-of-favour integrated oil and gas stocks? Probably, in our view.

We believe that the significance of the monetary pivot in the NNGG is under-estimated as China accelerates preparations to undermine the dollar's role in world trade. The other aspect of China's strategy is its diversification into "hard assets" and, as far as we can tell, China is attempting to "corner" the market for physical gold. Its strategic significance is lost on most Western investors. We present some insights into today's gold market which might shock Western investors - similarities with the run-up to the major lows in the gold price more than a decade ago - and China's understanding of modern gold market mechanics.

The threats to the existing US-centric order are substantial and the geo-political sands are shifting. The US will respond and has the largest economy and military (with vast ocean-going naval advantage), most powerful investment banks and deepest financial markets and significant (albeit declining) political/diplomatic influence. In terms of boxing metaphors, we wonder whether the Ali versus Foreman fight in Kinshasa in 1974 (knockout in the eighth) or the Leonard versus Hagler fight at Caesar's Palace in 1987 (points victory where the argument as to who actually won continues) will be the parallel.

* * *

From an anonymous source prior to the major lows in the gold price more than a decade ago.

"Someone once said, 'no one wants gold, that's why the US$ price keeps falling.' Many thinking ones laugh at such foolish chatter. They know that the price of gold is dropping precisely because 'too many people are buying it'! Think now, if you are a person of 'great worth' is it not better for you to acquire gold over years, at better prices? If you are one of 'small worth', can you not follow in the footsteps of giants? The real money is selling ALL FORMS of paper gold and buying physical! Why? Because any form of paper gold is losing value much, much faster than metal. Some paper will disappear all together in a fire of epic proportions! The massive trading continues at LBMA, but something is now missing...We have reached production costs...The great mistake by the BIS was in underestimating the Asians. Some big traders said they would buy it all below $365+/- and they did. That's what forced LBMA to go on a spree of paper selling! Now, it's a mess."

Interesting?

The gold price is approaching production cost again.

We have the physical versus paper demarcation again (most commentators are clueless on this - the paper market is still determining the screen price, but it will probably die once and for all this time around – the question is at what level?).

The Asians are being underestimated again when the price is declining (although not by the BIS - China is buying physical gold in unprecedented volumes – at least 70-75% of world mining production this year).

But accelerating developments in the monetary sphere is only one element of...

The "New New Great Game"

Mackinder's "Heartland Theory"

The traditional "Great Game" obviously dates back to the geo-political rivalry between Great Britain and Russia for supremacy in the central Asian region during the nineteenth and early part of the last century. In his famous speech, "The Geographical Pivot of History", to the Royal Geographical Society in 1904, Sir Halford Mackinder outlined his "Heartland Theory. " According to Wikipedia.

"This is often considered a, if not the, founding moment of geo-politics..."

Briefly, this posited that the major geo-political prize is Eurasia (the "World Island"), i.e. the European, Asian and Middle Eastern land mass, which contained the bulk of the world's population and its natural resources. Mackinder argued that control of the "pivot area" of central Asia was the key to controlling Eurasia.

This is taken from his paper published in the April 1904 edition of the "The Geographical Journal."

He also emphasised the important difference between sea power and land power. From Zurich-based ISN's 2009 "Geopolitics and US Middle Eastern Policy: Mackinder and Brzezinski."

"Mackinder's theory was a counter-argument to notions that maritime supremacy was sufficient for a power such as Great Britain to safeguard its hegemony. He claimed that, with the emergence of new transportation routes [e.g. Trans-Siberian railway] and technology, a power that could control the centre (and the abundant resources) of the Eurasian landmass...would ultimately be able to attack the colonies of a sea power everywhere on the continent. "

The Trans-Siberian Railway.

In the wake of World War One, Mackinder argued the case for preventing a convergence of interests between Russia and new "pivot" states of Eastern Europe (Austria, Hungary, Czechoslovakia and Poland). This led to his famous dictum.

"Who rules East Europe commands the Heartland;
Who rules the Heartland commands the World Island;
Who rules the World Island commands the World."

It's important to emphasise that the pivot area does evolve/fluctuate with changes in geo-political reality. Indeed, Mackinder included the Baltic states in one of his revisions.

As the world industrialised and became increasingly dependent on crude oil (and later, natural gas), energy resources became ever more integral to the Great Game. With such a large proportion of the world's oil and gas reserves found on the Eurasian land mass, this was easily accommodated within Mackinder's theory.

The period just before World War One, with the British Navy's switch from coal to oil and the adoption of the automobile, set the stage for this. Indeed, in 1913, the British government acquired a 51% controlling interest in the Anglo-Persian Oil Company, the forerunner of BP.

Remarkably, the validity of Mackinder's theory has stood the test of time, even though most people are unfamiliar with it. The following quote is from the Reagan Administration's "National Security Strategy of the United States" published in January 1988.

"The first historical dimension of our strategy is relatively simple, clear-cut, and immensely sensible. It is the conviction that the United States' most basic national security interests would be endangered if a hostile state or group of states were to dominate the Eurasian land mass – that area of the globe often referred to as the world's heartland."

Right now, it's obvious that US national security interests are threatened by a combination of China and Russia.

This was the influential globalist (and former National Security Advisor), Zbigniew Brzezinski, writing in his famous 1997 book, "The Grand Chessboard."

"Ever since the continents started interacting politically some 500 years ago, Eurasia has been the centre of world power… For America, the chief geopolitical prize is Eurasia – and America's global primacy is directly dependent on how long and how effectively its preponderance on the Eurasian continent is sustained."

In the "New Great Game", (NGG) of the modern era, the major rivalry is between US/NATO on one side and China, Russia, other members of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation and the likes of Iran, on the other.

The "pivot states" in the NGG are.

  • The key nations in Central Asia and the Trans-Caucasus: especially those with substantial energy resources and/or pipelines (e.g. Azerbaijan, Ukraine, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan etc). Here is a chart showing the major gas pipelines

And the major oil pipelines:

  • The major OPEC nations of the Middle East: here we borrow part of US geo-strategist, Nicholas Spykman's, "Rimland" theory. Spykman, the "godfather of containment" was both a disciple and critic of Mackinder. He believed that the "Rimland", European coast, Arabian-Middle Eastern desert and Asiatic Monsoon region was more important for controlling the Heartland.

This was Brzezinksi on the Central Asian Republics, or "Eurasian Balkans" as he terms them in his book. This was in 1997, when China's economic and military might was still a distant prospect.

"They are of importance from the standpoint of security and historical ambitions to at least three of their most important and more powerful neighbours, namely Russia, Turkey and Iran, with China also signalling an increasing political interest in the region. But the Eurasian Balkans are infinitely more important as a potential economic prize; an enormous concentration of natural gas and oil reserves is located in the region, in addition to important minerals including gold."

It's a reminder of the strategic importance of energy and gold and puts the US-supported "Color revolutions" into sharper focus - Ukraine (Orange, 2004), Georgia (Rose, 2003) and Kyrgyzstan (Tulip, 2005).

Tweaking the Heartland Theory

We agree with the modern interpretation of the NGG, but we see TWO additional elements which make the current situation a "New New Great Game."

... continue reading below (pdf link)

UBS' Cashin notes West's loss of gold to Asia

Posted: 28 Dec 2013 05:57 PM PST

9p ET Saturday, December 28, 2013

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

UBS executive Art Cashin tells King World News today that people should be concerned about the flow of gold from West to East and that he's surprised at the lack of investigation of Western central banks that have let their gold go at bargain prices:

http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2013/12/28_C...

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.



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Overstock CEO On Bitcoins, Gold, Austrian Economics, And... Zombies

Posted: 28 Dec 2013 04:52 PM PST

Patrick Byrne, the embattled CEO of Overstock.com, had plenty to say in a recent Fortune interview. The outspoken CEO, whose company recently became the first US retailer to accept Bitcoin (beginning later next year) aligns his beliefs with Ron Paul, holds enough gold that if "zombies walked the Earth," he'd be taken care of. Byrne believes "the long-run value of all fiat money is zero," adding that,"we're not going to get rid of the Federal Reserve any time soon, so bitcoin is a step in the right direction."

Via Fortune,

Fortune: Do you own any bitcoins?

Patrick Byrne: No. I own gold.

Really, how much gold?

A lot. Let's just say enough that if zombies walked the Earth I will have enough gold that me and mine are taken care of.

I hope you're kidding about the zombies, but let's get back to bitcoin. Do you plan to buy any for yourself?

I'm not investing in bitcoin. I'm just saying we'll accept it. I don't have any opinions on its value, and I don't even know how one would go about finding that out beyond just looking it up everyday and what it's trading at. Overstock accepting bitcoin shouldn't be read as an endorsement or a view that the value of it is going to go up. We're not going to be holding any bitcoin -- it's just a medium of exchange.

But you're obviously a bitcoin fan. Why?

There are business and philosophical reasons. First, the business reason: I think there are a legitimate number of consumers who want to be able to shop with bitcoin. They like the anonymity of the currency. So far, the market has only served them with shady websites, like Silk Road. Also, it saves us about 2% from interchange fees. It's no secret that our net margin is about 2% now. And so the savings would be a very substantial improvement to our bottom line.

As far as the philosophical reason: I am from the Austrian School of Economics, which means we're the guys who hate fiat money. The long-run value of all fiat money is zero. If you believe in limited government, you want to have a monetary system that is based on something where no government mandarin can just create money with a stroke of a pen. Gold is a solution, we're not going to bring back the gold standard any time soon. We're not going to get rid of the Federal Reserve any time soon, so bitcoin is a step in the right direction.

Bitcoin has gotten a lot of attention. Would you say that accepting it at Overstock is just a marketing tool for your company?

Adoption of bitcoin is low, but I think once we and some other major guys start accepting it that could change very quickly.

In December alone, bitcoin fluctuated between $480 and $1,280. This is super volatile. Does that freak you out at all?

No. We're not going to be holding any bitcoin. It's just a medium of exchange. We're just going to be taking bitcoins as payment and converting them into U.S. dollars, at least initially. If we just do the conversion every day, the most risk would be the volatility it experiences in one day, which is still pretty high I know.

There aren't any derivative instruments out there yet to hedge that risk, but we anticipate they will be created in one way or another.

Any other risks you see?

I really don't see any. Plus a certain type of person is using bitcoin -- not just the guys shopping on Silk Road.  An increasing population distrusts the government's ability to manage the economy. This is a way of signaling to these people that we stand with them and we share their same doubts.

Washington has been holding Congressional hearings on Bitcoin? Have you talked to anyone about the currency?

I avoid discussions with anyone in Washington, but we have lawyers that talk to them, and they say that in Washington there are questions about bitcoin and how it's going to be regulated, if at all. The concern is primarily the Silk Road kind of crowd and money launderers. We certainly don't want to encourage or condone that kind of behavior and we'll do everything the law requires us to do.

Can the U.S. stop bitcoin from being adopted and used, especially by retailers and consumers?

I don't' see how they can. If anything, I think if usage gets widespread enough, it could have a beautiful effect for the United States. If our current system starts melting down or we start experiencing hyperinflation and systemic risks and all kinds of things we experienced in 2008, then it will provide a very convenient way for people to move to a safe store of value as they lose faith in the current government-run institutions.

A few bitcoin exchange start-ups have emerged. Who are you planning to use?

We're down to negotiating with three companies.

Which ones?

We haven't disclosed that yet.

Keynes & Copernicus: Debasement Of Money Overthrows The Social Order And Governments

Posted: 28 Dec 2013 03:35 PM PST

Submitted by Ralph Benko via The Cobden Centre blog,

The United States Senate moves toward the confirmation of Janet Yellen, now posited for next January 6th, as chair of the Federal Reserve System. Let us in this moment of recess reflect on eerily similar observations by two of history’s most transformational figures:  John Maynard Keynes and Nicolas Copernicus.

One of Keynes’s most often-cited observations, from his 1919 The Economic Consequences of the Peace, chapter VI, contains an indictment of policies very like those which the Federal Reserve System has been implementing for the past dozen, and more, years.  These policies in slow motion are, in the opinion of this columnist, at the root of  the very political, social, and cultural dysphoria — uneasiness or generalized dissatisfaction — predicted by Keynes:

Lenin is said to have declared that the best way to destroy the capitalist system was to debauch the currency. By a continuing process of inflation, governments can confiscate, secretly and unobserved, an important part of the wealth of their citizens. By this method they not only confiscate, but they confiscate arbitrarily; and, while the process impoverishes many, it actually enriches some. The sight of this arbitrary rearrangement of riches strikes not only at security, but at confidence in the equity of the existing distribution of wealth. Those to whom the system brings windfalls, beyond their deserts and even beyond their expectations or desires, become ‘profiteers,’ who are the object of the hatred of the bourgeoisie, whom the inflationism has impoverished, not less than of the proletariat. As the inflation proceeds and the real value of the currency fluctuates wildly from month to month, all permanent relations between debtors and creditors, which form the ultimate foundation of capitalism, become so utterly disordered as to be almost meaningless; and the process of wealth-getting degenerates into a gamble and a lottery.

 

Lenin was certainly right. There is no subtler, no surer means of overturning the existing basis of society than to debauch the currency. The process engages all the hidden forces of economic law on the side of destruction, and does it in a manner which not one man in a million is able to diagnose.

An almost identical point was made almost four centuries before Keynes by iconic savant and polymath Nicolas Copernicus.

Copernicus commenced a study composed for the Prussian and Polish governments around 1525, On the Minting of Money, with these words:

ALTHOUGH THERE ARE COUNTLESS MALADIES that are forever causing the decline of kingdoms, princedoms, and republics, the following four (in my judgment) are the most serious: civil discord, a high death rate, sterility of the soil, and the debasement of coinage.

 

The first three are so obvious that everybody recognizes the damage they cause; but the fourth one, which has to do with money, is noticed by only a few very thoughtful people, since it does not operate all at once and at a single blow, but gradually overthrows governments, and in a hidden, insidious way.

This does not imply plagiarism by Keynes.  The coincidence between Keynes’s “[To debauch the currency] engages all the hidden forces of economic law on the side of destruction, and does it in a manner which not one man in a million is able to diagnose” and Copernicus’s “[The debasement of coinage] … is noticed by only a few very thoughtful people, since it does not operate all at once and at a single blow, but gradually overthrows governments, and in a hidden, insidious way” is, however, striking.

Keynes, like Copernicus a paradigm-shifter, was himself extraordinarily erudite.  It is not impossible the young Keynes came across Copernicus’s work (which reportedly was first actually published in 1826).   The question as to whether Copernicus’s Essay may have inspired Keynes’s observation must be left to authentic scholars such as Lord Skidelsky.

The similarity may be merely that of “great minds working alike.”  This columnist has found but one direct reference by Keynes to Copernicus.

Keynes (whose thinking was mostly, although not exclusively, opposed to the gold standard) was fascinated by one of Copernicus’s most accomplished scientific successors, Sir Isaac Newton.  Newton, also, achieved iconic status, both for his contributions to physics and, as Master of the Mint of Great Britain, as the architect of the modern classical gold standard. Newton’s gold standard was designed along Copernican principles of close correlation toward nominal and intrinsic value.  It served the world very well for almost 200 years.

Keynes was to have addressed the Royal Society of London’s gathering to celebrate the tercentenary of Newton’s birth, an event delayed by the war.  Keynes died a few months before he could present his remarks.  Maynard’s remarks, Newton, the Man, were presented by his brother Geoffrey (and thus might even be characterized as Keynes’s last words).  A brief excerpt:

Why do I call [Newton] a magician? Because he looked on the whole universe and all that is in it as a riddle, as a secret which could be read by applying pure thought to certain evidence, certain mystic clues which God had laid about the world to allow a sort of philosopher’s treasure hunt to the esoteric brotherhood.

 

 

[H]e became one of the greatest and most efficient of our civil servants. He was a very successful investor of funds, surmounting the crisis of the South Sea Bubble, and died a rich man. He possessed in exceptional degree almost every kind of intellectual aptitude – lawyer, historian, theologian, not less than mathematician, physicist, astronomer.

 

 

As one broods over these queer collections [of Newton's alchemical writings, which Keynes collected], it seems easier to understand – with an understanding which is not, I hope, distorted in the other direction – this strange spirit, who was tempted by the Devil to believe at the time when within these walls he was solving so much, that he could reach all the secrets of God and Nature by the pure power of mind Copernicus and Faustus in one.

As for Copernicus, On the Minting of Money has been translated into English several times yet those translations remained difficult to obtain for students of the monetary arts and sciences.  It has remained mostly the property of elite historians.  Scant and intriguing references were limited to all-too-brief articles such as “Treatise On the Minting of Coin and Copernicus views on economics” by Leszek Zygner of  Nicolaus Copernicus University.

The full text of Copernicus’s fascinating and invaluable essay remained elusive, that is, until last month.

Laissez Faire Books published a meticulous and fresh English translation from the Latin, with prefatory remarks, bibliography, and invaluable critical apparatus by classicist Prof. Gerald Malsbary. (The volume was co-edited by this columnist and by his  fellow Forbes.com columnist Charles Kadlec, with a foreword by Reagan Gold Commissioner Lewis E. Lehrman, whose eponymous Institute this columnist professionally serves).

From Prof. Malsbary’s Prefatory Remarks to Copernicus’s Essay on Money:

NICOLAS COPERNICUS the astronomer embodies the modern scientific ideal: the revolutionary revealer of a new, verifiable scientific theory that shocks our conventional perceptions. However, it is not very widely known, outside of Eastern Europe at least, that Copernicus also spent about twenty years working on economic theory. His treatise On the Minting of Money (Monetae Cudendae Ratio), was first printed in 1826, three hundred years after its composition in 1525–1526. At the time, the semi-autonomous ecclesiastical region between Poland and Prussia where he lived (Varmia) was undergoing a political and economic metamorphosis, and his judgment and expertise (a fruit of the best late Scholastic and Humanist learning) was summoned by the Prussian and Polish governments to help stabilize an inflated currency. Was his insight into monetary matters as revolutionary as his astronomy?

Keynes: “The process [of debauching the currency] engages all the hidden forces of economic law on the side of destruction, and does it in a manner which not one man in a million is able to diagnose.”  Copernicus: “[The debasement of coinage] … is noticed by only a few very thoughtful people, since it does not operate all at once and at a single blow, but gradually overthrows governments, and in a hidden, insidious way.”

Malsbary: “Was [Copernicus's] insight into monetary matters as revolutionary as his astronomy?” In a word, yes.

Madame Yellen?  Whether one follows Keynes or Copernicus … it is time to return to the principle of meticulous monetary integrity — as exemplified by the classical gold standard — to restore legitimacy both to to the social order and to government.

David Collum's Year In Review - The Interview

Posted: 28 Dec 2013 02:31 PM PST

For some, despite being the holidays, reading all 89 pages of David Collum's annual epic 'year in review' is tough to squeeze in between earning minimum wage at Toys'r'Us for 85 hours straight or "consuming" as much food and iPads as possible. Luckily, Erin Ade of Boom Bust sat down with David to discuss the critical aspects of his voluminous tome. Given his initial comments, we suspect the 20 minutes are well worth watching...

"Gold has a severe beating this year... and it's ironic that people say "buy-and-hold" but then when you have bad year "ahh, you're an idiot"

 

Collum remains long precious metals because he thinks "the Fed is a reckless bunch of characters who [he is] not even sure have above average IQ... I think they are going to do some damage"

 

Collum's interview starts at 4:20...

 

And the full review is available here:

 

2013yearinreview-30

 

Anyone still miss Maria B?

Why The Turkish Government May Be The Casualty Of A $119 Billion PetroDollar "Loophole"

Posted: 28 Dec 2013 12:13 PM PST

It was in October 2012 when we explained how Iran evades the Western blockade (ostensibly with the implicit nod of none other than the US), and when we first defined the concept of PetroGold in the context of the Turkey-Dubai-Iran crude-for-gold triangle. For those who need a quick refresher, here it is:

In recent months there has been a lot of incorrect speculation that because Iran has been shut off from the petrodollar, SWIFT-mediated regime, its economy will implode as the country has no access to the all important greenback and can thus not conduct international trade - the driving factor behind the international sanctions that seek to topple the local government as Iran dies an economic death. And while there have been bouts of substantial inflation, which so far the local government appears to have managed to put a lid on by curbing gray market speculation, Iran continues to more or less operate on its merry ways with international trade most certainly taking place, especially with China, Russia and India as main trading partners. "How is this possible" those who support the Western-led embargo of all Iranian trade will ask? Simple - gold. Because while Iran may have no access to dollars, it has ample access to gold. This in itself is not new - we have reported in the past that Iran has imported substantial amounts of gold from Turkey, despite the Turkish government's stern denials. Today, courtesy of Reuters, we learn precisely what the 21st century equivalent of the Great Silk Road looks like, and just how effective Iran has been as a lab rat in escaping the great petrodollar experiment, from which conventional wisdom tells us there is no escape. Presenting: petrogold.

One year later, following Iran's unperturbed ability to exist in a world without US dollars, the blockade of Iran is a thing of the past, and the west has engaged in a full-blown detente with the country, much to the fury of both Israel and Saudi Arabia, in exchange for the symbolic gesture that Iran will limit its nuclear enrichment, lowering and in many cases outright eliminating Iran sanctions, which proved completely futile.

So a happy ending for Iran, if only for now thanks to the fact that despite all the status quo's lies gold is and always has been money and can substitute for dollars.

However, one country that has seen better days, whose government may be on the edge of collapse due to an unprecedented corruption scandal precisely for enabling said PetroGold scheme, and which has been in the news on a daily basis recently, is Turkey. As Turkey's Today's Zaman explains in "Iran's Turkish Gold Rush", the political crisis Turkey finds itself in may be nothing but a consequence of the PetroGold scheme conceived over a year ago, and in which Turkey played a crucial role. 

Here is how the Turkey-Dubai-Iran PetroGold triangle, or as the Zaman calls it, "gas for gold", may soon result in the toppling of yet another government, simply because it showed that existence outside of the clutches of the 'Petrodollar' is perfectly possible...

* * *

From Iran's Turkish Gold Rush, highlights ours:

Turkey's Islamist government is being rocked by the most sweeping corruption scandal of its tenure. Roughly two dozen figures, including well-connected business tycoons and the sons of top government ministers, have been charged with a wide range of financial crimes. The charges ballooned into a full-blown crisis on Dec. 25 when three ministers implicated in the scandal resigned, with one making a dramatic call for Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan to step down as well. An exhausted-looking Erdogan subsequently appeared on television in the evening to announce a cabinet reshuffle that replaced a total of 10 ministers.

The drama surrounding two personalities are particularly eye-popping: Police reportedly discovered shoeboxes containing $4.5 million in the home of Süleyman Aslan, the CEO of state-owned Halkbank, and also arrested Reza Zarrab, an Iranian businessman who primarily deals in the gold trade, and who allegedly oversaw deals worth almost $10 billion last year alone.

The gold trade has long been at the center of controversial financial ties between Halkbank and Iran. Research conducted in May 2013 by the Foundation for Defense of Democracies and Roubini Global Economics revealed the bank exploited a "golden loophole" in the US-led financial sanctions regime designed to curb Iran's nuclear ambitions. Here's how it worked: The Turks exported some $13 billion of gold to Tehran directly, or through the UAE, between March 2012 and July 2013. In return, the Turks received Iranian natural gas and oil. But because sanctions prevented Iran from getting paid in dollars or euros, the Turks allowed Tehran to buy gold with their Turkish lira -- and that gold found its way back to Iranian coffers.

This "gas-for-gold" scheme allowed the Iranians to replenish their dwindling foreign exchange reserves, which had been hit hard by the international sanctions placed on their banking system. It was puzzling that Ankara allowed this to continue: The Turks -- NATO allies who have assured Washington that they oppose Iran's military-nuclear program -- brazenly conducted these massive gold transactions even after the Obama administration tightened sanctions on Iran's precious metals trade in July 2012.

Turkey, however, chose to exploit a loophole that technically permitted the transfer of billions of dollars of gold to so-called "private" entities in Iran. Iranian Ambassador to Turkey Ali Reza Bikdeli recently praised Halkbank for its "smart management decisions in recent years [that] have played an important role in Iranian-Turkish relations." Halkbank insists that its role in these transactions was entirely legal.

The US Congress and President Obama closed this "golden loophole" in January 2013. At the time, the Obama administration could have taken action against state-owned Halkbank, which processed these sanctions-busting transactions, using the sanctions already in place to cut the bank off from the US financial system. Instead, the administration lobbied to make sure the legislation that closed this loophole did not take effect for six months -- effectively ensuring that the gold transactions continued apace until July 1. That helped Iran accrue billions of dollars more in gold, further undermining the sanctions regime.

In defending its decision not to enforce its own sanctions, the Obama administration insisted that Turkey only transferred gold to private Iranian citizens. The administration argued that, as a result, this wasn't an explicit violation of its executive order.

It's possible that the Obama administration didn't have compelling evidence of the role of the Iranian government in the gold trade. However, the president may have also simply sought to protect his relationship with Ankara and didn't want to get into a diplomatic spat with Erdogan, who he considers a key regional ally.

If the administration didn't feel that the sanctions in place at the time were sufficient to take action against Halkbank, after all, it could have easily shut down the gold trade by amending its executive order. But at the time, Turkey was also playing a pivotal role in US policy in Syria, which included efforts to strengthen the more moderate opposition factions fighting President Bashar Assad's regime.

It's also possible, however, that the Obama administration's decision had less to do with Turkey, and more to do with coaxing Iran into signing a nuclear deal. In the one-year period between July 2012, when the executive order was issued, and July 2013, when the "golden loophole" was closed, the Obama administration's non-enforcement of its own sanctions reportedly provided Iran with $6 billion worth of gold. That windfall may have been an American olive branch to Iran -- extended via Turkey -- to persuade its leaders to continue backchannel negotiations with the United States, which reportedly began as early as July 2012. It could also have been a significant sweetener to the interim nuclear deal eventually reached at Geneva, which provided Iran with another $7 billion in sanctions relief.

Indeed, why else would the administration have allowed the Turkish gold trade to continue for an extra six months, when Congress made clear its intent to shut it down?

This brings us back to the current corruption drama in Turkey. The ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) has been claiming that it is a victim of a vast conspiracy, blaming everyone from Washington to Israel to US-based Islamic cleric Fethullah Gulen for its woes. Some Turkish media have pointed a finger at David Cohen, the Treasury Department's undersecretary for terrorism and financial intelligence, who happened to be in Turkey as the news began to break. Erdogan even raised the possibility of expelling the US ambassador to Ankara, Francis Ricciardone.

But if the charges stand against the panoply of well-connected figures fingered, the AKP will have only itself to blame. While the gas-for-gold scheme may have been technically legal before Congress finally shut it down in July, it appears to have exposed the Turkish political elite to a vast Iranian underworld. According to Today's Zaman, suspicious transactions between Iran and Turkey could exceed $119 billion -- nine times the total of gas-for-gold transactions reported.

Even if the Turkish-Iranian gold trade represents only a small part of the wider corruption probe, the ongoing investigation could provide a window into some nagging questions about the relationship between Ankara and Tehran. Perhaps we will finally learn why the Turkish government allowed Iran to stock up on gold while it was defiantly pursuing its illicit nuclear program -- and whether the Obama administration could have done more to prevent it.

* * *

Bottom line: dare to mess with the Petrodollar and the wrath of the US government will hunt you down... sooner or later.

Gold price collapse is the worst for 30 years

Posted: 28 Dec 2013 12:00 PM PST

The precious metal has been one of the worst-performing assets in 2013, bringing an end to a decade-long rally
    




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Cashin Warns About West’s Disappearing Gold Hoard

Posted: 28 Dec 2013 11:47 AM PST

Today 50-year veteran Art Cashin warned King World News about the West's disappearing gold hoard. Cashin, who is Director of Floor Operations at UBS ($650 billion under management), also discussed what surprises him the most regarding the West's loss of gold.

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Bailout Of World's Oldest Bank In Jeopardy, Rests On Hope That "Ship Does Not Sink"

Posted: 28 Dec 2013 11:33 AM PST

The ongoing debacle of Italy's Banca Monte dei Paschi (BMPS) took a turn for the worst today. The bank's largest shareholders (MPS Foundation) approved (read - forced through) a delay in a EUR 3 billion capital raise, which the bank needs to avoid nationalization, until May. The delay (which will cost the bank EUR 120 million in interest) allows MPS more time to liquidate their 33.5% holding before their stake is massively diluted. Management is 'considering' resignation and is "very annoyed," but the city Mayor is going Nationalist with his delay-supporting comments that "we cannot let the third biggest bank in this country fall prey to foreign interests." So Europe is recovering but they can't even raise a day's worth of POMO to save the oldest bank in the world?

 

Via Reuters,

Italy's third-biggest bank Monte dei Paschi di Siena was forced to delay a vital 3 billion euro ($4.1 billion) share sale to raise capital until mid-2014 because of shareholder opposition, plunging its turnaround plan into uncertainty.

 

The bank's chairman and its chief executive may now resign after their plan to launch the cash call in January was defeated at an extraordinary shareholder meeting on Saturday due to the vote of Monte Paschi's top shareholder.

 

The world's oldest bank needs to tap investors for cash to pay back 4.1 billion euros in state aid it received earlier this year and avert nationalization

Simple game theory really - why would the largest shareholder "guarantee" losses now when it can try and liquidate more of its exposure over time?

But the cash-strapped Monte dei Paschi foundation - whose stake in the bank is big enough to veto any unwanted decision - forced a postponement until at least mid-May to win more time to sell down its 33.5 percent holding and repay its own debts.

 

...

 

Antonella Mansi, a feisty 39-year-old businesswoman recently appointed head of the Monte dei Paschi foundation, said her insistence on a cash call delay did not amount to a no-confidence vote in the bank's management.

 

But she said that carrying out the capital increase in January would massively dilute the foundation's holding, leaving it with virtually nothing to sell to reimburse debts of 340 million euros.

 

"We have a precise duty to ensure (the foundation's) survival. You can't ask us to let it collapse," she said.

Management is "very annoyed"...

Chairman Alessandro Profumo, a strong-willed and internationally respected banker who was formerly the chief of UniCredit, said he and CEO Fabrizio Viola would decide in January whether to step down.

 

"These are decisions one takes in cold blood and in the right place," Profumo said at the meeting.

 

"What I have on my mind is a 3 billion euro cash call because we need to pay back 4 billion euros to taxpayers. Today this is uncertain and at risk," he told a press conference.

 

Viola, sitting at his side, told reporters he would do everything "so that the ship does not sink", but that he could not take responsibility for mistakes made by others.

Of course, there is risk either way...

"It's important to carry out the capital increase as early as possible," said Roberto Lottici, fund manager at Ifigest. "The risk is that the bank finds itself rushing into a cash call later at a lower price than what it could achieve now."

 

...

 

"It's hard to think that the third largest Italian bank can't find a pool of banks able to support the cash call after May 2014," said Antonella Mansi, the president of the MPS foundation, at the shareholders' meeting.

and given the number of jobs involved... local officials are now reacting in favor of the delay (hoping for domestic savior)...

But in Siena, where the bank is known as "Daddy Monte" and is the biggest employer, fears that the cash call might sever the umbilical cord between the lender and the city run high.

 

Siena mayor Bruno Valentini, whose city council is the top stakeholder in the Monte dei Paschi foundation, said on Friday a postponement might help keep the bank in Italian hands.

 

"We cannot let the third biggest bank in this country fall prey to foreign interests," he said. "Monte dei Paschi is not just an issue in Siena, it is a big national issue."

So, even after all the lqiuidty provision; yields and spreads on European debt back near record lows; calls from US asset managers that Europe is recovering and will be the growth engine; and hopes that Europe's AQR stress test (and resolution mechanism) will be the gold standard for confidence in their banking system... they still can't find a group of greater fools to pony up EUR3 billion in real (not rehypothecated) money to save the world's oldest bank - that's a day's worth of Fed POMO!!!!

 

On an odd side note, we did note a major surge in ECB margin calls this week...


Dollar Weakness is Really Euro and Sterling Strength

Posted: 28 Dec 2013 10:26 AM PST

The holiday-thinned activity may have distorted the price action, but the general theme that has emerged in recent weeks remains very much intact. The US dollar's weakness, which many observers and the media emphasize, is very narrow and largely confined to the euro and sterling (and a few currencies that move in their orbits).

 

Even in recent days, as the euro and sterling climbed to two-year high, the yen slumped to five-year lows, and Australian and Canadian dollars remain pinned near multi-year lows.  Eastern and central European currencies have been lifted against the dollar by the rising euro, but many of the larger accessible emerging market currencies, like the South African rand, the crisis-stricken Turkish lira, and Mexican peso have not performed well.   And over the past week, the Thai baht has lost almost as much as the Japanese yen.

 

It seems that the combination of the large current account surplus, aided by the re-balancing of the periphery, including Spain, portfolio capital inflows, and the ongoing de-leveraging of the financial sector is giving the euro greater legs than anticipated.  At the same time, despite the divergence in the trajectory of monetary policy, Dec Eurodollar-Euribor spread stands at an unimpressive 8 bp. Three-month Euribor was fixed higher than three-month Eurodollar (0.2735% vs 0.2466%).

 

The thin market conditions appear to have exacerbated the move that was already underway.  The move to almost $1.39 at the end of last week was exaggerated and some near-term backing and filling is likely.  Initial support is seen in the $1.3680-$1.3700 area and then $1.3600.   On the upside, there is increased focus on the trend line drawn off the record high in 2008 (~ $1.6040) and the May 2011 high (~$1.4940).   It comes in in January near $1.4050.

 

Sterling has convincingly violated a similar trend line.  It is drawn off the August 2009 high (~$1.7045) and the April 2011 high (~$1.6750).  It was approached several times since, including in January and July 2013.  Before the weekend, it recorded its highest close in 2 1/2 years.  Any backing and filling should be limited to the $1.6300-area.  Assuming that sterling pushed through the $1.66, the next important technical target is near $1.6750.

 

The losses in the Dollar Index have been mitigated by the dollar's strength against the yen and Canadian dollar.  It rebounded quickly from the drop below the month's previous lows, leaving it stuck between the uptrend drawn off the October 25 low (~79.00) and the December 18 low (~79.80) and the downtrend line drawn off the November 12 and 21 highs (~81.45 and 81.30) and the December 20 high (a little above 0.8080).  These converging trend lines are found near 80.00 and 80.65 at on January 3.

 

If the euro and sterling's strength are a theme so is the yen's weakness, making it difficult, as we have noted in talking about the dollar in general.    The dollar pushed through the JPY105 level after breaking JPY104 in the immediate response to the Fed's tapering decision on December 18. The next important technical target comes near JPY110.

 

The euro has not looked back since breaking above JPY140 on December 6.  The next target is JPY150. Sterling surpassed JPY170 on the Fed's tapering and this area was tested as support before bouncing higher in recent days.  There is potential, from a technical point of view toward JPY180 and possibly JPY184.

 

The broadly sideways price action in the Australian dollar failed to improve the technical picture.  Its bounce in the early part of the last week stalled just ahead of the lower end technical resistance we noted in the $0.8970 area.  It can be expected to test the $0.8800 in the days ahead. The next major objective is near $0.8550.

 

After the yen and Australian dollar, the Canadian dollar has been the third worst performer against the dollar over here in Q4.  Over the past week, the Canadian dollar was weaker than the Aussie. We look for the greenback to convincingly rise through the CAD1.07 level.  The next immediate technical target is around CAD1.08 and we look for a move toward CAD1.12-CAD1.14 in the coming months.

 

For seven consecutive sessions through the end of last week, the dollar recorded a higher low against the Mexican peso.  Nevertheless, the broad trading range of MXN12.80-MXN13.10, identified last week, has remained largely intact.  Technical indicators are not generating strong signals presently, but if this analysis is accurate and there is some backing and filling technical action in the near-term, we suspect the dollar is more likely to ease toward the lower end of this narrow range.

 

The CFTC's Commitment of Traders Report for the most recent reporting period is not available.  

Silver Stocks Are Incredible Bargains

Posted: 28 Dec 2013 08:32 AM PST

2013 has been a brutal year for silver. And a brutal year for a metal obviously doesn't bode well for its mining stocks. Companies that have been exploring for deposits, developing mines, and producing silver have sadly become the pariahs of the markets. But if silver's fortunes change in 2014, as they ought to, then right now could be one of the best buying opportunities of this entire secular bull market.

Unfortunately silver is currently in a sentiment wasteland. Even contemplating a foray into this metal, let alone its stocks, is a fool's errand to the majority of mainstream investors. Their mindset is why bother wasting even a cent of precious capital investing in a sector led by an asset that's down 36% on the year. It's much more prudent to throw money at the ever-rising stock markets, right?

Indeed the bloated general stock markets have sucked in a lot of silver's capital. With the headline indices all soaring to record heights, more and more investors have joined the herd to chase the gains. This has left little room for alternative investments like silver, fundamentals be damned. And as a result, this metal and its associated stocks have greatly suffered.

The artificially-levitating stock markets aren't silver's only problem though. And certainly the biggest one by far is its association with gold. Sadly gold has endured a panic-stricken year that has devastated the entire precious-metals realm. The mass exodus from bullion-backed ETFs and an anomalous futures-shorting bonanza have left mass quantities of blood on gold's streets. And silver has been unable to avoid the splash damage.

It's no secret that silver's performance is slave to gold's. It essentially mirrors the directionality of its big brother, with much more volatility on both the upside and downside given its smaller market. As goes gold, so goes silver. So until gold turns, silver will almost certainly remain stuck in its rut.

Fortunately gold is overdue for a massive recovery rally. Even with the rampant ETF selling, it still has incredibly strong structural fundamentals. It should soar on its own merits, but an overdue stock-market correction is sure to accelerate investors' desire to put capital back to work in this sector. For a myriad of reasons I suspect gold will be the story of 2014.

When gold comes back, so will silver. And silver's gains ought to dramatically outpace gold's, like they usually do. Speculators are naturally drawn to silver in precious-metals uplegs, they crave upside leverage. And this metal still has its own strong fundamentals to attract in a more diverse crowd (indispensable industrial usage and essentially the same investment allure as gold).

Silver even has a leg up on gold considering the stability of its premier bullion-backed ETF. While gold's flagship GLD ETF has seen its holdings fall by a staggering 40% in 2013, silver's flagship SLV ETF has seen its holdings remain stable. This is an incredible show of relative strength.

SLV's physical inventory happens to be at the same level today as it was at the beginning of the year (324m ounces). This certainly demonstrates strong hands amidst silver's slump! And it points to what should be a major boost to this ETF's holdings once investors actually shift capital back to silver.

Finally once silver again starts to shine, investors will naturally return to the mining stocks. And they'll return in droves to chase after gains that normally positively leverage a rising silver price.

And the return to silver stocks won't come a minute too soon considering their dilapidated state. With leverage being a two-way street, the silver miners have been crushed amidst silver's decline. This three-year chart of silver and Global X's Silver Miners ETF (SIL) shows just how bad things have been for the silver stocks.

SIL vs silver price 2011 till 2013 stocks

SIL tracks an index that is designed to reflect the performance of the silver-mining industry. This index is comprised of companies that mine, refine, and explore for the metal. So in general the higher the price of silver goes, the more money they make and the more their in-ground resources are worth. And inversely the farther the price of silver falls, the more their margins are pinched and the less their deposits are worth. It is thus fundamentally natural for silver stocks' directionality to be correlated with silver's.

This correlation is of course visually evident. And it is backed up mathematically as well. Since April 28, 2011 (silver's bull-to-date high) SIL has had a daily correlation r-square with silver of 93.2%. This means that over 93% of SIL's daily price action over the last 2.5+ years is directly explainable by silver's own. Such an incredibly high correlation reveals silver's tight grip on its miners' stocks.

As you can see, anything silver has had a rough three-year stretch (SIL in blue and the metal in red). Since silver's April 2011 high, it has fallen 60% to this week. Regardless of how illogical this decline is, it's no wonder investors have been scared off. This brutal selloff has brought silver's price all the way down to 2008 levels.

Silver's plunge naturally fed selling in silver stocks. And over this exact same period, SIL responded with a whopping 62% decline of its own. But provocatively this comparable loss hardly demonstrates leverage (1.03x negative leverage). As mentioned, the risk/reward paradigm that comes with stocks typically has them outperforming on the upside and underperforming on the downside. Yet if you had purchased SIL on April 28, 2011, you'd be no worse for wear today than if you'd bought the physical metal.

This lack of leverage is explainable if you consider the action prior to silver's apex. Interestingly there was somewhat of a disconnect between the precious metals and their mining stocks in the first part of 2011. Most investors vividly remember this occurrence, much to our chagrin. On the gold side the mining stocks didn't participate at all in its final upleg. Gold stocks were essentially flat as the metal forged a series of all-time highs through the first three quarters of 2011.

It wasn't so bad for the silver stocks as measured by SIL, but it was still very concerning for investors. While silver skyrocketed 80% trough-to-peak in its massive early-2011 parabolic upleg, SIL was only able to muster a 36% gain. Why bother owning the riskier mining stocks if their gains can't outpace the metals'? This disconnect really left a bad taste in investors' mouths. And for this reason they lost confidence in the stocks prior to the bull highs achieved in their underlying metals.

Ultimately it was that poor pre-apex action that supported silver/SIL's minimal post-apex negative leverage. It just so happened that in the beginning part of this stretch silver needed to correct sharper than it usually does compared to stocks. As is the nature of parabolas, the downside is just as violent as the upside. Just as we warned at the time at Zeal, silver needed a fierce correction in order to rebalance sentiment. And since silver stocks weren't bid as high amidst silver's parabola, they didn't need to correct as much immediately afterward.

But while the pre-apex action distorts the concept of leverage over this longer-term post-apex measure, by no means has leverage abated. As expected, it didn't take long for SIL/silver to assume their traditional leveraged relationship. On the negative side, silver-stock investors got smacked silly in 2013. With silver down 36%, much of the remnant capitulated. This drove SIL down 52% to this week (1.44x leverage)!

Thankfully investors can cling to the hope of positive leverage even amidst the recent carnage. Silver stocks have been positively leveraging silver's gains for over a decade, making investors fortunes. And despite the fact that stocks lagged in early 2011 (0.45x leverage) and then again in early 2012 (0.81x leverage), positive leverage was bound to return. If positive leverage didn't exist, it would be the end of publically-traded silver stocks as we know it. There would be no reason to own them!

Fortunately silver stocks finally started showing signs of life amidst silver's last two uplegs. The Q3 2012 upleg saw silver gain 33%, over which time SIL rose 43% (1.30x leverage). And it got even better for silver's Q3 2013 upleg, with an SIL gain of 46% to silver's 33%. This latest upleg gave stock investors 1.39x leverage to the metal, which is improving. And I expect this leverage to progressively increase in future uplegs, going from "improving" to great.

Ideally investors would like to see leverage of at least 2 to 1, a nice reward for the risk of owning mining stocks. And this is certainly not unheard of based on historic precedent. In fact, in previous uplegs we've seen precious-metals stocks positively leverage the metals by greater than 5 to 1.

If silver launches radically higher like we expect it to, there will no doubt be a stock-buying frenzy that should lead to great positive leverage. The producers will see their margins skyrocket, the developers will see the IRRs of their prospective operations increase, and the explorers will see the values of their undeveloped deposits soar. It won't take long for investors to realize that the beaten-down stocks are incredible bargains. And the gains should be spectacular for those who get in early.

Overall with silver way oversold and due for an epic mean-reversion recovery rally, now is the time to buy the mining stocks. Silver's next upleg is poised to be powerful, and should pull it out of this current vicious cyclical bear. And it'll likely lead to the stocks delivering outsized positive leverage vastly better than what's been seen in recent years. This could be one of the best buying opportunities of silver's entire secular bull market!

The SIL ETF is of course a great option for investors who are either new to the silver-stock circuit or who are looking for a more diversified and conservative vehicle. Its holdings are comprised of 29 stocks, of which the majority consider silver their primary metal of focus (those that don't still have strong silver, with their primary metal being gold). It also offers investors exposure to foreign stocks not listed on US or Canadian exchanges (Fresnillo PLC, Polymetal, Hochschild Mining, etc.).

As is the nature of ETF diversification though, there's a limitation on the upside. And that's why investors who hunt the big gains tend to go after individual stocks. A skillfully selected smaller basket of stocks will nearly always outperform an index-based ETF.

Picking stocks is of course a daunting task, which is why ETFs are so popular. Not only do you need to have a keen understanding of the sector, you need to understand the intricacies of its constituents. And in a period where silver companies have struggled mightily, this understanding is all the more important.

Silver companies have had to weather a double-whammy of a major price decline of their primary metal and a serious lack of funding. And getting pounded by these realities over a multi-year period has led to radical changes in the silver-mining landscape. Unfortunately we've seen somewhat of a sector cleansing, as even some of the former market darlings have struggled to stay afloat.

Picking stocks is more difficult today than it's ever been. The reality is there are fewer quality stocks out there than there used to be. The survivors will perform well once silver starts roaring higher. But the elite ones with a combination of strong assets, savvy management, and solid financials will really thrive. Their stocks ought to seriously outpace the gains of SIL and the sector as a whole.

At Zeal our expert research has identified an elite group of 12 silver stocks that are indeed well-positioned to thrive upon silver's imminent ascent.  These stocks range from junior explorers to large producers.  And we fundamentally profiled each of them in a brand-new 27-page report just published this month.  Purchase your report today to learn about the opportunities in the world's best silver stocks!

We also publish acclaimed weekly and monthly newsletters.  These newsletters are action-packed with expert market analysis from a unique contrarian perspective.  They also include real-world trade recommendations.  And a sizeable contingent of our open trades are silver stocks that are profiled in our new report.  Subscribe todayto find out which stocks we are trading!  Subscribers also get to purchase reports at a discount.

The bottom line is silver-mining stocks have had a rough few years as they've followed their underlying metal to the depths of its current cyclical bear market. These stocks are universally despised, the ultimate contrarian play.

Silver's fortunes are bound to change in the very near future though. And when this metal recovers, the mining stocks are poised to rocket higher from their radically oversold levels. Now could be one of the best times ever to buy silver stocks. With a skillfully selected basket of individual stocks, the gains brave contrarian investors win ought to be fantastic.

GOFO - Real Explanations vs. Pseudo Experts

Posted: 28 Dec 2013 07:44 AM PST

GOFO is a description of the forward price of gold in terms of a percentage or "premium" above or below the current price. Read More...

India gold tax hits bridal budgets and smuggling is up

Posted: 28 Dec 2013 07:44 AM PST

By Kay Johnson
Associated Press
via Seattle Times
Saturday, December 28, 2013

http://seattletimes.com/html/businesstechnology/2022546351_indiagoldpric...

MUMBAI, India -- With India's wedding season in full swing, the glass sales counters in Mumbai's famed Zhaveri gold bazaars are crowded with customers eyeing elaborate headpieces, nose rings, and necklaces. No one does jewelry quite like an Indian bride, who by tradition wears all the gold she can stand up in and her family can afford.

These days, though, even the most ambitious bridal budgets don't bring the bling like they used to, thanks to hikes in import duties and a rise in local gold prices that have shoppers like Rajanikant Mehta grumbling.

Mehta, who owns a factory outside the capital, had planned to spend about $1,800 on a necklace for the woman marrying his son late this month, but he's unhappy about what he's getting for his money. Gold prices in India, which imports nearly all its gold, have risen 50 percent over the past three years to about $1,400 an ounce.

... Dispatch continues below ...



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Thanks to the new tax and weaker rupee, that's about a 20 percent premium over the world market price, hovering just under $1,200 an ounce.

"The price of gold should be lower," Mehta complained. "This is a globalized world. If the prices are similar to the prices elsewhere, then the purchase of gold will increase."

More gold buying, though, is exactly what the Indian government is trying to stop by raising import duties three times this year to 10 percent on gold bullion -- up from 2 percent in January -- and 15 percent on gold jewelry.

Gold is India's second-biggest import behind oil, and purchases have soared in recent years as rising incomes from a decade of economic growth sent Indian consumers on a buying streak.

The problem is that the greater buying of the precious metal has dealt a blow to India's economy by increasing the flow of money out of country compared to inflows. As a result, the current account deficit rose to a historic high of 4.8 percent of India's gross domestic product in the fiscal year that ended in March.

That in turn has helped weaken the rupee by about 10 percent this year, making many products more expensive by raising the cost of oil, priced in dollars, and other raw materials.

But in trying to discourage gold buying, India is taking on a passion that dates back thousands of years and is deeply entwined in Indian culture. In some Hindu legends, Brahma, the god who created the universe, was born from a gold egg. The goddess Lakshmi is portrayed with a golden complexion and gold coins flowing from her hands. It's considered good luck to give gold, especially to a bride.

Still, the tax measures appear to have worked, with gold imports down 32 percent in the July-September quarter and India on track to lose its status as the world's No. 1 consumer of gold to China this year. The drop has eased pressure on the current account deficit, now on track to reach a more comfortable annual average of 3 percent of GDP. The government hasn't said what it plans to do with the extra revenue, but the country faces a big fiscal deficit, so every bit helps.

The official numbers tell only part of the story, though, since the higher import duties have also given birth to increasingly creative smuggling schemes.

... Smuggling on the rise

According to Indian media reports, customs authorities have busted people with gold bars hidden in cellphone battery compartments, a man with gold necklaces wrapped around his legs and another man who had fashioned 109 solid-gold staples, painted them gray and stapled them to the box of a television he was legally importing. Local media reported the staples weighed a total of 26.6 ounces and were valued at about $30,500.

The seizures are probably only a fraction of the amount of smuggled gold getting through, according to the U.K.-based World Gold Council.

"Going by the number of seizures that have been made at airports and elsewhere, there is enough evidence to say that smuggling probably has doubled this year," said Somasundaram, the India director for the World Gold Council.

It's impossible to know the exact amount being successfully smuggled in, said Somasundaram, who uses just one name.

But the council has noted a 125 percent rise in third-quarter gold sales in Thailand over the same period the previous year, to more than 35 tons. That suggests Indian smugglers may be buying much of their gold there.

Despite the steps to limit imports, India's demand for gold remains robust. It's plainly evident during wedding season, which runs from November through January.

The custom of adorning brides with gold is both spiritual -- gold is a powerful symbol of purity -- and practical. The wife's wedding adornments belong to her as insurance against a bad marriage, even though many men confiscate it.

In the southern state of Kerala, the escalation of bridal-jewelry extravagance is so dramatic that the local women's commission has proposed a law limiting how much a bride can wear — a measure bound to meet popular opposition.

"Everyone likes gold. Marriage happens just once in your life," Abhirami Damodaran said as she shopped for her wedding jewelry.

The daughter of a real-estate businessman in Kerala, she plans to flaunt about 7 pounds of gold worth about $150,000 on her big day.

"When we wear gold, it's not only the bride who is happy, but her parents as well," she said. "They are giving gold as part of a future investment."

* * *

Join GATA here:

Vancouver Resource Investment Conference
Vancouver Convention Centre West
Sunday-Monday, January 19-20, 2014
Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada

http://www.cambridgehouse.com/event/vancouver-resource-investment-confer...

Mines and Money Hong Kong
Hong Kong Convention and Exhibition Centre
Monday-Friday, March 24-28, 2014
Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China

http://www.minesandmoney.com/hongkong/

* * *

Support GATA by purchasing DVDs of our London conference in August 2011 or our Dawson City conference in August 2006:

http://www.goldrush21.com/order.html

Or by purchasing a colorful GATA T-shirt:

http://gata.org/tshirts

Or a colorful poster of GATA's full-page ad in The Wall Street Journal on January 31, 2009:

http://gata.org/node/wallstreetjournal

Help keep GATA going

GATA is a civil rights and educational organization based in the United States and tax-exempt under the U.S. Internal Revenue Code. Its e-mail dispatches are free, and you can subscribe at:

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To contribute to GATA, please visit:

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Gold Investors Weekly Review – December 27th

Posted: 28 Dec 2013 07:08 AM PST

In his weekly market review, Frank Holmes of the USFunds.com nicely summarizes for gold investors this week's strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats in the gold market. The price of the yellow metal went lower after two consecutive weeks of gains. Gold closed the week at $1,212.93, up $9.63 per ounce (0.80%). The NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index went 4.21% higher on the week. This was the gold investors review of past week.

Gold Market Strengths

India’s Commerce Ministry has asked to ease the restrictions on the import of gold, imposed by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), in an effort to control the rising current account deficit. In a letter to Economic Affairs Secretary, Commerce Secretary S. R. Rao asked him to “look into the matter” and issue necessary instructions to the RBI for the removal of the anomaly. The move would relieve jewelers who have been reeling from the government induced gold import curbs. So far, the government has responded with a bid to relax some of the conditions currently imposed on the import of gold ore by refiners, with the aim of kick starting India's waning gold refineries, which have been operating at only 25 percent of installed capacity. Official sources have argued that the nation's current account deficit has compressed significantly since the introduction of the import curbs, so this can be read as a first step in reducing the import duty on gold.

The German Bundesbank announced it has transferred 37 tons of gold back from New York and Paris to its Frankfurt vaults. Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann said the transfer was prompted by new a Bundesbank storage concept to hold gold in Frankfurt, and not because of concerns over its availability. However, Germany's Federal court concluded in 2011 that the nation's gold holdings overseas weren't regularly checked, which prompted the initiation of plans to bring back a total 700 tons previously in deposit with the Fed and the Banque de France. As a Zero Hedge article points out, procuring physical gold seems to be a rather problematic and time-consuming process, as the Bundesbank is learning.

Platinum futures jumped the most in 10 weeks on speculation that a global economic rebound will boost demand for the metal used for pollution control devices in cars. Platinum reached a two-week high on Friday in the most active trading of the session. A recent Bloomberg survey shows the price of the precious metal is expected to rally to $1,650 an ounce in 2014 as consumption surpasses output. Demand exceeded supply this year by the most since 1999 and the continuation of the synchronized global economic recovery will likely lead to an even greater shortage in 2014.

Gold Market Weaknesses

Gold is set to post its biggest annual loss in more than three decades as rallying U.S. equities and optimism about a synchronized global economic recovery lowered its safe haven appeal. The near 30 percent slump in 2013 ends a 12-year rally prompted by rock bottom interest rates and rapidly expanding central banks' balance sheets. The mood remains bearish among generalists who expect prices to drop further next year. Several brokerages such as Goldman Sachs, BNP Paribas and Societe General have gold price targets below $1,150 in 2014. Physical demand, which climbed to peak levels this year, has shown it can provide support on the downside, but it has failed to drive prices higher. Silver is down just under 35 percent for the year, its worst annual performance since at least 1981.

Gold Market Opportunities

Capital Economics argues the precious metal could come back into favor in 2014. "The consensus is that the price of gold will grind lower in 2014, at best, as the support from loose U.S. monetary policy gradually weakens," said Julian Jessop, head of commodities research at the firm. "In contrast, with investor sentiment already so heavily negative, our view is that the risks for the coming year are firmly skewed to the upside." According to Jessop, the latter half of 2013 suggests the worst of the slump may be over. Indeed, during this period, gold prices staged a partial recovery, rising to $1,400 before dropping back to current levels around $1,200. Jessop added that that next year, a re-emergence of eurozone instability, and the Fed’s continued asset purchase program, could work to boost gold prices. Although the Fed has announced a small taper, it will still be pumping large amounts of stimulus into the economy through most, if not all, of 2014. "We are happy to reiterate our view that the price of gold will revisit $1,400, at least, in 2014, and probably go higher," Jessop concluded.

GOLD price vs Fed balance sheet 2000 till 2013 investing

The metals analysts at J.P. Morgan think it is easy to look at the cost of new mines and conclude that current prices are unsustainable. In addition, JPM analysts assert that on Wall Street the question of future inflation is a when, and not if, proposition. With central banks around the world still printing money at a furious pace, a debasement of the value of their currencies is forthcoming. As a result, the J.P. Morgan team thinks now is the time to look hard at gold and silver as hedges, especially given the golden opportunity created by the recent downturn in prices. The motivation is that contrarian investing has paid off big for patient investors, and it can pay off even bigger when the whole world is negative on the asset class, such as gold at present time. Just a few short years ago major homebuilders traded in the single digits, while banks and brokerage firms got clobbered in 2008. The recovery in those sectors has paid off handsomely. With gold, once inflation finally kicks in after years of currency printing, the patient gold investor may again have his day in the sun.

Metal and crop prices are poised to rebound in 2014 as accelerating economic growth boosts demand, according to a Bloomberg story. Average annual prices for 15 of 23 non-energy commodities from aluminum to sugar will be higher than now, according to estimates from as many as 26 analysts compiled by Bloomberg. Corn, silver and gold dropped the most in 2013. "It's a good time to come into commodities," said James Paulsen, the Minneapolis-based chief investment strategist at Wells Capital Management, which oversees about $340 billion of assets. "This is the first time in the recovery that we've had simultaneous positive and accelerating growth in the U.S., Europe, Japan and the emerging world all at the same time. Economic growth may not be enough to end the slump. Silver, after posting the biggest loss of any precious metal, will rise as much as 28 percent in 2014 to $25 an ounce on spot markets, according to the median of 40 estimates. Gold will gain 20 percent to $1,450, based on 59 estimates. On the bearish side, Jeffrey Currie, Goldman's head of commodities research in New York said there will be "significant" declines through next year for iron ore, gold, soybeans and copper. He added that gold will slide to $1,110 an ounce in 12 months.

Gold Market Threats

A Financial Times article this week speaks to the crisis of confidence in the mining sector. According to the report, the number of new mining listings in Canada, where roughly 70 percent of all mining equity finance is raised, plunged fuelled by a steep decline in metal prices. Up until the end of November, 62 companies had listed on the Toronto Stock Exchange or the TSX venture exchange, compared with 129 by the same point in 2012 and more than 200 in both 2009 and 2010. The amount of equity raised in Toronto has also fallen from $10.3 billion in the whole of 2012 to just $6.5 billion by the end of November. Almost half of this year's total to date came in November when Barrick Gold, raised $3.1 billion of fresh equity.

According to David Rosenberg of Gluskin Sheff, wage inflation is a key source of upside risks to growth in 2014, and that is not on the radar screen. The recent Beige Book had abundant anecdotal evidence highlighting job shortages on high-skill trades. Rosenberg estimates that out of the 115 million people currently employed in the private sector, roughly 40 million of them are going to be reaping the benefits of a higher stipend. With the Fed still consumed with deflation fears, and job firings already 20 percent below 2007 levels, Rosenberg argues that inflation is likely to surprise to the upside. In such an environment, gold is likely to regain strength on the basis of its hedging qualities. In addition, the areas of consumer spending that showed the greatest positive sensitivity to periods of rising wage growth include jewelry and electronics; sectors that may provide incremental demand for both gold and silver.

 

Gold And Silver - Sharply Higher Prices? Be Careful What You Wish For

Posted: 28 Dec 2013 06:54 AM PST

2013 comes to an end, and with it all those calls for gold and silver to be at much higher price levels. What will 2014 bring? More and more renewed calls for much higher price levels. Will 2014 be the year? Read More...

This Past Week in Gold

Posted: 28 Dec 2013 06:37 AM PST

Summary: Long term - on major sell signal since Mar 2012. Short term - on mixed signals. Gold sector cycle - up as of 12/27. COT data is now favorable for a bear market rally. Read More...

GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis - 27th December, 2013

Posted: 28 Dec 2013 06:31 AM PST

Last analysis expected a fourth wave correction may have been complete. A trend channel was provided for confirmation. We did not get confirmation and price moved higher, remaining just below the invalidation point. Read More...

Gold And Silver – Sharply Higher Prices? Be Careful What You Wish For.

Posted: 28 Dec 2013 05:56 AM PST

2013 comes to an end, and with it all those calls for gold and silver to be at much higher price levels. What will 2014 bring? More and more renewed calls for much higher price levels. Will 2014 be the year?

It is a possibility, but as the expression goes, "Be careful of what you wish for." So many who expect gold to exceed $3,000, even $10, 000, while for silver $100 and higher, but what are the expectations for how circumstances will be with PM at the higher end?

Do you believe your 100 ounces or 1,000 ounces of gold, and/or your 1,000 ounces or 10,000 ounces of silver will have increased your wealth, as you have been anticipating during the accumulation process, and everything else will be relatively the same, except your increased good fortune?

Be careful what you wish for. Things that change, apart from increased PM prices, may be far different from what you may think or have not thought through. One of the strong possibilities will be more war; if not a major one, then smaller civil wars disrupting life in the Western world as we know it.

The strongest predictor of future behavior is past behavior, and we know for certain is that starting another major war can be expected as a means of deflecting governmental instability. It always seems to start from some unrelated event, but the event is always calculated to being about the desired results: war. They are profitable for the controlling moneychangers, and they redirect the attention of the masses from the hardships of a [carefully orchestrated] resultant war.

Another certainty will be the relentless loss of personal freedoms, a throw-back to the Stasi days in East Germany, except it will be in your own neighborhood. The USA is much more like the USSA, and personal freedom will likely not exist, at least not as we know it today. The federal government will be in total control, monitoring the daily life of everyone 24/7.

If you have gold and or silver, and you want to use it, the question might be how? What happens if the powers that be have outlawed transactions in anything other than the State- sanctioned digital "currency" in which every transaction must contain your photo ID, address, and some form of "official approval" before completion?

Your 1 ounce gold coin is worth $10,000, but you just want to buy some food. Okay, your 1 ounce silver coin is worth $200, a more manageable situation. If what you want costs less than $200, what would you accept in return as "change?" Can you trust the person on the other side of the transaction not to turn you in to the authorities? Do you run the risk of alerting authorities to the fact that you have gold and/or silver, which now has you under a more intense surveillance from then on?

Beyond what is already known about ongoing world events, there are two primary wars of which few are aware. One began around 1770, and the other is currently being waged by the East v the West, as the West struggles for survival. We will endeavor to address the latter one, next week.

To understand the first, we are providing a link that was sent to us from one of our readers. We have made several mentions of the Rothschilds, the New World Order, the elites, the moneychangers, et al. They are real, and their impact on your life may have gone unnoticed, at least directly, as has always been their intent. We strongly urge you to read the entire article. It is the most comprehensive abbreviated version that gives a full account of how one man has changed the direction of the world, and irretrievably for the worse.

Not many Americans could explain what a dollar is if their life depended on it. We keep saying a dollar is not a Federal Reserve Note, or a Federal Reserve Note is not a dollar. Yet, the elites, through their installed Federal Reserve, would have everyone believe otherwise. See Gold – A Suppressed Market Remains Suppressed, But For How Long?, paragraphs 10 through 16, for a brief discussion on the subject as an example of how the illuminati work behind the scenes, carefully directing everything.

This information is not presented as the definitive explanation for events as they are today, but it is closer to the truth of which most are unaware. Read it. Understand it. Share it with your friends. Knowledge of what the illuminati are doing is essential for personal and economical survival.

We cannot speak for Europe, but the existence of the Euro Zone is a huge red flag. For sure, we are familiar with the de facto federal government that has been in total control of the United States since the 1933 bankruptcy, and even as extensively leading up to that culminating event. The Rothschild formula, as carried out by the illuminati is very real.

Here is the link for an ultra macro look at the world http://www.secretsofthefed.com/qwefqwr/, and some charts for a micro look at gold and silver.

There is little from last week that has altered the picture for the down trend in gold. The small range for the week is difficult to read. The close on the upper end of the range tells us buyers won the battle, last week, but the lack of further upside direction also says the rally effort was weak. With the holiday, it may not be worth trying to read much into it.

gold price weekly 27 december 2013 price

The last six bars suggests the probability for at least a nominal lower low if greater than not. The rally effort of the last 5 trading days is labored when compared to the ease of downward movement for the 6th bar.

Of the three green rally bars, designated by a higher close from the previous day, the most volume was on the last one, and the close was mid-range. This tells us that sellers were meeting the effort of buyers and even stopping the buyers. Odds favor further decline into next week. Whatever the market does, the trend has not yet reversed.

gold price daily 20 december 2013 price

The support area for silver is holding relatively better than that for gold, but the trend is still down.

silver price monthly 27 december 2013 price

While it can be viewed more as a positive that daily silver has formed a trading range, [TR] instead of going lower, TRs do not provide much useful information as they form.

silver price daily 27 december 2013 price

Gold And Silver 2014 Sharply Higher Prices? Be Careful What You Wish For

Posted: 28 Dec 2013 05:44 AM PST

2013 comes to an end, and with it all those calls for gold and silver to be at much higher price levels. What will 2014 bring? More and more renewed calls for much higher price levels. Will 2014 be the year? It is a possibility, but as the expression goes, "Be careful of what you wish for." So many who expect gold to exceed $3,000, even $10, 000, while for silver $100 and higher, but what are the expectations for how circumstances will be with PM at the higher end?

The Mechanics of Gold and Silver Price Manipulation

Posted: 28 Dec 2013 03:34 AM PST

Much confusion persists regarding the method, or mechanics, of how the big banks are able to push the price of precious metals around at will for so long. GATA and Ted Butler have long established and outlined the reasons why this occurs (legally). They have also established the foundation that forms the basis of how the manipulation unfolds. Despite very clear and concise commentary, the message sometimes becomes diluted in its distribution. This situation makes for easy picking from the hard-core opposition who mainly reside, ironically, as part of the professional mining and trading community.

Jeff Lewis: The mechanics of precious metals price manipulation

Posted: 27 Dec 2013 04:50 PM PST

7:49p ET Friday, December 27, 2013

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Jeffrey Lewis of Silver Coin Investor cites GATA and silver market rigging whistleblower Ted Butler in his new commentary, "The Mechanics of Precious Metals Price Manipulation":

http://www.silver-coin-investor.com/The-Mechanics-of-Precious-Metals-Pri...

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.



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Join GATA here:

Vancouver Resource Investment Conference
Vancouver Convention Centre West
Sunday-Monday, January 19-20, 2014
Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada

http://www.cambridgehouse.com/event/vancouver-resource-investment-confer...

Mines and Money Hong Kong
Hong Kong Convention and Exhibition Centre
Monday-Friday, March 24-28, 2014
Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China

http://www.minesandmoney.com/hongkong/

* * *

Support GATA by purchasing DVDs of our London conference in August 2011 or our Dawson City conference in August 2006:

http://www.goldrush21.com/order.html

Or by purchasing a colorful GATA T-shirt:

http://gata.org/tshirts

Or a colorful poster of GATA's full-page ad in The Wall Street Journal on January 31, 2009:

http://gata.org/node/wallstreetjournal

Help keep GATA going

GATA is a civil rights and educational organization based in the United States and tax-exempt under the U.S. Internal Revenue Code. Its e-mail dispatches are free, and you can subscribe at:

http://www.gata.org

To contribute to GATA, please visit:

http://www.gata.org/node/16

The Gold Price Rose Again Today Closing at $1,216.10

Posted: 27 Dec 2013 04:11 PM PST

Gold Price Close Today : 1,216.10
Gold Price Close 20-Dec-13 : 1,205.10
Change : 11.00 or 0.9%

Silver Price Close Today : 20.013
Silver Price Close 20-Dec-13 : 19.418
Change : 0.595 or 3.1%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 60.766
Gold Silver Ratio 20-Dec-13 : 62.061
Change : -1.295 or -2.1%

Silver Gold Ratio : 0.01646
Silver Gold Ratio 20-Dec-13 : 0.01611
Change : 0.000 or 2.1%

Dow in Gold Dollars : $ 280.11
Dow in Gold Dollars 20-Dec-13 : $ 278.25
Change : 1.86 or 0.7%

Dow in Gold Ounces : 13.550
Dow in Gold Ounces 20-Dec-13 : 13.460
Change : 0.09 or 0.7%

Dow in Silver Ounces : 823.39
Dow in Silver Ounces 20-Dec-13 : 835.36
Change : -11.98 or -1.4%

Dow Industrial : 16,478.41
Dow Industrial 20-Dec-13 : 16,221.08
Change : 257.33 or 1.6%

S&P 500 : 1,841.40
S&P 500 20-Dec-13 : 1,818.52
Change : 22.88 or 1.3%

US Dollar Index : 80.500
US Dollar Index 20-Dec-13 : 80.710
Change : -0.21 or -0.3%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1,376.00
Platinum Price Close 20-Dec-13 : 1,331.90
Change : 44.10 or 3.3%

Palladium Price Close Today : 711.05
Palladium Price Close 20-Dec-13 : 697.85
Change : 13.20 or 1.9%

The GOLD PRICE rose again today, $2.00 to $1,216.10. The SILVER PRICE rose 12.8 cents to 2001.3c.

Now behold and consider. In June the gold price intraday low was 1179.40 but it never closed below $1,200. Silver's June intraday low was 1817c, but its low close was 1853.3c.

In December's trading silver has made intraday lows at 1889c (early in the month) and at 1910c (six trading days ago). Low close has been 1914.3c.

The GOLD PRICE December trading showed an early intraday low at $1,210.10 with a low 6 days ago at $1,186. Low close has been $1,195.40 with two closes below $1,200.

All that is enough to paint a double bottom on the chart, but that needs confirming, like gold's MACD gave a buy signal crossover today. Silver's gave one on the 23rd. Rate of change is climbing out of the hole for both.

But of course the ultimate confirmation is HIGHER PRICE. Silver must climb above its last high at 20.48, then 2100c resistance, and the last peak in October at 2309c.

The gold price needs to scale its way clean to $1,267.50 December's high, and beyond. It catches my eye that both Platinum and Palladium have jumped sharply and are at or near their 20 day moving averages.

Silver and gold prices are lined up better than I've seen them in a long time. That may be an upside down head and shoulders forming in gold and a double bottom in silver. Confirmation! That's what we need. Wait! Is this some of it? HUI and XAU gold stock indices have also turned up.

Let's see what happens when we return to full markets after the New Year holiday.

Here's a turn around: stronger week for metals than for stocks, although the Dow today broke a six day streak of new highs. US dollar lost ground as it continues vacillating between heaven and hell.

Both the Dow and the S&P 500 painted the first half of a key reversal -- new high for the move with a lower close. To complete the reversal that must be followed tomorrow by lower closes. After a six day streak of new highs, that's not hard to imagine.

What interests me more is this: the Dow in Gold and Dow in Silver are both FALLING against that backdrop of strong stocks. A few days ago they made new highs, 13.629 oz and 841.56 oz. Today they stand at 13.58 oz and 820.43 oz, and silver is hovering right above its 20 day moving average (816.10 oz). MACD has flashed a sell signal in DiS but not yet in DiG. Rate of Change in both have turned positive.

Once again I remind y'all, I watch these sensitive indicators to pinpoint a turn in silver and gold early. They turned down this week, but will they confirm?

US DOLLAR INDEX fell sharply today, 14 basis points (0.17%) to 80.50. Cut clean through its 20 and 50 DMAs (80.41 and 80.42) at one point and visited a low of 79.82, but recovered to close down only those 14 basis points. Maybe it was a light market today and the Europeans came back from the holiday full of Christmas cheer, but in any event, why can't the dollar break through its downtrend line. Euro managed a huge gain, 0.42% to $1.3749, erasing the losses of the past three weeks. Could not hold at the $1.3800+ downtrend line, but touched it. Yen made a new low for the move at 95.10, down 0.35%.

Y'all enjoy your weekend!

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2013, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission. To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 18 ounces of silver. or 18 ounces of silver. US $ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.

The Gold Price Rose Again Today Closing at $1,216.10

Posted: 27 Dec 2013 04:11 PM PST

Gold Price Close Today : 1,216.10
Gold Price Close 20-Dec-13 : 1,205.10
Change : 11.00 or 0.9%

Silver Price Close Today : 20.013
Silver Price Close 20-Dec-13 : 19.418
Change : 0.595 or 3.1%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 60.766
Gold Silver Ratio 20-Dec-13 : 62.061
Change : -1.295 or -2.1%

Silver Gold Ratio : 0.01646
Silver Gold Ratio 20-Dec-13 : 0.01611
Change : 0.000 or 2.1%

Dow in Gold Dollars : $ 280.11
Dow in Gold Dollars 20-Dec-13 : $ 278.25
Change : 1.86 or 0.7%

Dow in Gold Ounces : 13.550
Dow in Gold Ounces 20-Dec-13 : 13.460
Change : 0.09 or 0.7%

Dow in Silver Ounces : 823.39
Dow in Silver Ounces 20-Dec-13 : 835.36
Change : -11.98 or -1.4%

Dow Industrial : 16,478.41
Dow Industrial 20-Dec-13 : 16,221.08
Change : 257.33 or 1.6%

S&P 500 : 1,841.40
S&P 500 20-Dec-13 : 1,818.52
Change : 22.88 or 1.3%

US Dollar Index : 80.500
US Dollar Index 20-Dec-13 : 80.710
Change : -0.21 or -0.3%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1,376.00
Platinum Price Close 20-Dec-13 : 1,331.90
Change : 44.10 or 3.3%

Palladium Price Close Today : 711.05
Palladium Price Close 20-Dec-13 : 697.85
Change : 13.20 or 1.9%

The GOLD PRICE rose again today, $2.00 to $1,216.10. The SILVER PRICE rose 12.8 cents to 2001.3c.

Now behold and consider. In June the gold price intraday low was 1179.40 but it never closed below $1,200. Silver's June intraday low was 1817c, but its low close was 1853.3c.

In December's trading silver has made intraday lows at 1889c (early in the month) and at 1910c (six trading days ago). Low close has been 1914.3c.

The GOLD PRICE December trading showed an early intraday low at $1,210.10 with a low 6 days ago at $1,186. Low close has been $1,195.40 with two closes below $1,200.

All that is enough to paint a double bottom on the chart, but that needs confirming, like gold's MACD gave a buy signal crossover today. Silver's gave one on the 23rd. Rate of change is climbing out of the hole for both.

But of course the ultimate confirmation is HIGHER PRICE. Silver must climb above its last high at 20.48, then 2100c resistance, and the last peak in October at 2309c.

The gold price needs to scale its way clean to $1,267.50 December's high, and beyond. It catches my eye that both Platinum and Palladium have jumped sharply and are at or near their 20 day moving averages.

Silver and gold prices are lined up better than I've seen them in a long time. That may be an upside down head and shoulders forming in gold and a double bottom in silver. Confirmation! That's what we need. Wait! Is this some of it? HUI and XAU gold stock indices have also turned up.

Let's see what happens when we return to full markets after the New Year holiday.

Here's a turn around: stronger week for metals than for stocks, although the Dow today broke a six day streak of new highs. US dollar lost ground as it continues vacillating between heaven and hell.

Both the Dow and the S&P 500 painted the first half of a key reversal -- new high for the move with a lower close. To complete the reversal that must be followed tomorrow by lower closes. After a six day streak of new highs, that's not hard to imagine.

What interests me more is this: the Dow in Gold and Dow in Silver are both FALLING against that backdrop of strong stocks. A few days ago they made new highs, 13.629 oz and 841.56 oz. Today they stand at 13.58 oz and 820.43 oz, and silver is hovering right above its 20 day moving average (816.10 oz). MACD has flashed a sell signal in DiS but not yet in DiG. Rate of Change in both have turned positive.

Once again I remind y'all, I watch these sensitive indicators to pinpoint a turn in silver and gold early. They turned down this week, but will they confirm?

US DOLLAR INDEX fell sharply today, 14 basis points (0.17%) to 80.50. Cut clean through its 20 and 50 DMAs (80.41 and 80.42) at one point and visited a low of 79.82, but recovered to close down only those 14 basis points. Maybe it was a light market today and the Europeans came back from the holiday full of Christmas cheer, but in any event, why can't the dollar break through its downtrend line. Euro managed a huge gain, 0.42% to $1.3749, erasing the losses of the past three weeks. Could not hold at the $1.3800+ downtrend line, but touched it. Yen made a new low for the move at 95.10, down 0.35%.

Y'all enjoy your weekend!

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2013, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission. To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 18 ounces of silver. or 18 ounces of silver. US $ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.

Cashin, Barron, and von Greyerz interviewed at King World News

Posted: 27 Dec 2013 03:59 PM PST

7p ET Friday December 27, 2013

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

UBS market executive Art Cashin today notes rising mortgage interest rates and falling mortgage applications and tells King World News that the U.S. Federal Reserve may have to reverse its "tapering" of bond purchases, which would be "a great embarrassment" for the central bank:

http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2013/12/27_A...

Gold mining entrepreneur Keith Barron tells King World News that there will be serious consequences to the transfer of the West's gold to Asia, among them the dominance of China's currency, the yuan:

http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2013/12/27_D...

And Swiss gold fund manager Egon von Greyerz tells KWN that the first century of the Federal Reserve has been a disaster for the world:

http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2013/12/27_W...

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.



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GoldMoney was established in 2001 by James and Geoff Turk and is safeguarding more than $1.7 billion in metals and currencies. Buy gold, silver, platinum, and palladium from GoldMoney over the Internet and store them in vaults in Canada, Hong Kong, Singapore, Switzerland, and the United Kingdom, ­taking advantage of GoldMoney's low storage rates, among the most competitive in the industry. GoldMoney also offers delivery of 100-gram and 1-kilogram gold bars and 1-kilogram silver bars. To learn more, please visit:

http://www.goldmoney.com/?gmrefcode=gata



Join GATA here:

Vancouver Resource Investment Conference
Vancouver Convention Centre West
Sunday-Monday, January 19-20, 2014
Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada

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Mines and Money Hong Kong
Hong Kong Convention and Exhibition Centre
Monday-Friday, March 24-28, 2014
Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China

http://www.minesandmoney.com/hongkong/

* * *

Support GATA by purchasing DVDs of our London conference in August 2011 or our Dawson City conference in August 2006:

http://www.goldrush21.com/order.html

Or by purchasing a colorful GATA T-shirt:

http://gata.org/tshirts

Or a colorful poster of GATA's full-page ad in The Wall Street Journal on January 31, 2009:

http://gata.org/node/wallstreetjournal

Help keep GATA going

GATA is a civil rights and educational organization based in the United States and tax-exempt under the U.S. Internal Revenue Code. Its e-mail dispatches are free, and you can subscribe at:

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How to profit with silver --
and which stocks to buy now

Future Money Trends is offering a special 16-page silver report with our forecast for 2013 that includes profiles of nine companies and technical analysis of their stock performance. Six of the companies have market capitalizations of less than $800 million and one company has a market cap of only $30 million. The most exciting of these companies will begin production in a few weeks and has a market cap of just $150 million.

Half of all proceeds from the sale of this report will be donated to the Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee to support its efforts exposing manipulation and fraud in the gold and silver markets.

To learn about this report, please visit:

http://www.futuremoneytrends.com/index.php?option=com_content&id=376&tmp...


Gold Shines Brightly and Oil Crosses $100 Level

Posted: 27 Dec 2013 03:36 PM PST

Gold is trading higher above $1,215 an ounce in Friday's session as the dollar weakens and investors seek out the precious metal as a haven. Oil meanwhile saw gains of its own crossing the $100 mark...

[[ This is a content summary only. Visit http://www.GoldSilverNewsBlog.com or http://www.newsbooze.com or http://www.figanews.com for full links, other content, and more! ]]

Silver Stocks 5

Posted: 27 Dec 2013 02:23 PM PST

2013 has been a brutal year for silver. And a brutal year for a metal obviously doesn't bode well for its mining stocks. Companies that have been exploring for deposits, developing mines, and producing silver have sadly become ... Read More...

Jim’s Mailbox

Posted: 27 Dec 2013 12:13 PM PST

Jim, No mention of gold, yet one should still take notice. The only reason for this serious accumulation to begin taking place is the flight to hard assets. Hyperinflation will make a simple rock cost the consumer dearly! Take note from the actions of big money… and follow their lead (with gold of course –... Read more »

The post Jim’s Mailbox appeared first on Jim Sinclair's Mineset.

Despite Propaganda, “The West Continues To Destroy Itself”

Posted: 27 Dec 2013 11:05 AM PST

Today a man who has lived in 18 countries around the world, and witnessed collapses in many of these countries firsthand, warned King World News that "the West continues to destroy itself." Keith Barron, who consults with major companies around the world and is responsible for one of the largest gold discoveries in the last quarter century, also spoke about the ongoing war in gold and silver, and what to expect going forward.

This posting includes an audio/video/photo media file: Download Now

Silver Stocks ETF's

Posted: 27 Dec 2013 09:16 AM PST

2013 has been a brutal year for silver.  And a brutal year for a metal obviously doesn’t bode well for its mining stocks.  Companies that have been exploring for deposits, developing mines, and producing silver have sadly become the pariahs of the markets.  But if silver’s fortunes change in 2014, as they ought to, then right now could be one of the best buying opportunities of this entire secular bull market. Unfortunately silver is currently in a sentiment wasteland.  Even contemplating a foray into this metal, let alone its stocks, is a fool’s errand to the majority of mainstream investors.  Their mindset is why bother wasting even a cent of precious capital investing in a sector led by an asset that’s down 36% on the year.  It’s much more prudent to throw money at the ever-rising stock markets, right?

2013’s best read stories: Physical gold, manipulation and forecasting

Posted: 27 Dec 2013 08:59 AM PST

This year's top-10 best read stories on Mineweb were, unsurprisingly, dominated by gold, given the metal's poor performance through the year.

Read more….

Cheaper gold brings new customers to Dubai in droves

Posted: 27 Dec 2013 08:59 AM PST

Lower gold prices are driving massive sales in the Gulf region, with younger customers flocking stores

Read more….

Koos Jansen: Gold is smuggled into China too

Posted: 27 Dec 2013 08:55 AM PST

11:52p ET Friday, December 27, 2013

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

India may not be the only country into which large amounts of gold are being smuggled. Gold researcher and GATA consultant Koos Jansen reports today that much gold appears to be smuggled into China as well, particularly through tunnels from Hong Kong. Jansen's commentary is headlined "Smuggling Gold into the Mainland" and it's posted at his Internet site, In Gold We Trust, here:

http://www.ingoldwetrust.ch/smuggling-gold-into-the-mainland

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.



ADVERTISEMENT

Buy metals at GoldMoney and enjoy international storage

GoldMoney was established in 2001 by James and Geoff Turk and is safeguarding more than $1.7 billion in metals and currencies. Buy gold, silver, platinum, and palladium from GoldMoney over the Internet and store them in vaults in Canada, Hong Kong, Singapore, Switzerland, and the United Kingdom, ­taking advantage of GoldMoney's low storage rates, among the most competitive in the industry. GoldMoney also offers delivery of 100-gram and 1-kilogram gold bars and 1-kilogram silver bars. To learn more, please visit:

http://www.goldmoney.com/?gmrefcode=gata



Join GATA here:

Vancouver Resource Investment Conference
Vancouver Convention Centre West
Sunday-Monday, January 19-20, 2014
Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada

http://www.cambridgehouse.com/event/vancouver-resource-investment-confer...

Mines and Money Hong Kong
Hong Kong Convention and Exhibition Centre
Monday-Friday, March 24-28, 2014
Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China

http://www.minesandmoney.com/hongkong/

* * *

Support GATA by purchasing DVDs of our London conference in August 2011 or our Dawson City conference in August 2006:

http://www.goldrush21.com/order.html

Or by purchasing a colorful GATA T-shirt:

http://gata.org/tshirts

Or a colorful poster of GATA's full-page ad in The Wall Street Journal on January 31, 2009:

http://gata.org/node/wallstreetjournal

Help keep GATA going

GATA is a civil rights and educational organization based in the United States and tax-exempt under the U.S. Internal Revenue Code. Its e-mail dispatches are free, and you can subscribe at:

http://www.gata.org

To contribute to GATA, please visit:

http://www.gata.org/node/16



ADVERTISEMENT

How to profit with silver --
and which stocks to buy now

Future Money Trends is offering a special 16-page silver report with our forecast for 2013 that includes profiles of nine companies and technical analysis of their stock performance. Six of the companies have market capitalizations of less than $800 million and one company has a market cap of only $30 million. The most exciting of these companies will begin production in a few weeks and has a market cap of just $150 million.

Half of all proceeds from the sale of this report will be donated to the Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee to support its efforts exposing manipulation and fraud in the gold and silver markets.

To learn about this report, please visit:

http://www.futuremoneytrends.com/index.php?option=com_content&id=376&tmp...


Politics In One Lesson

Posted: 27 Dec 2013 08:40 AM PST

[This article originally appeared in The Daily Reckoning on September 27, 2013]

"For greed all nature is too little."
– Seneca

Philosopher kings are as rare as unicorns. If they do exist… you certainly won't find one in the 113th U.S. Congress.

Back in his time, Plato thought that philosopher kings would make ideal rulers. Someone who strove for knowledge and justice for justice's sake. The philosopher king would despise worldly things, as he would seek only justice. It would be a reign free of whim, greed or bias.

The big surprise isn't that the majority of politicians do the wrong thing. The shocker is… we're surprised each time they do!

Boom, thought Plato. Problem solved.

But besides maybe the biblical superstar Solomon, can you name a philosopher king in history?

Compared to philosopher kings, real people are scalawags. We all are motivated toward our own ends and goals. Sometimes they're good… sometimes they ain't. Most people seem to understand that when talking economics. Buyers act in their own interests. It's painfully obvious. So is the idea that buyers want more stuff… at a lower cost.

But when you start talking politics, that basic idea gets tossed out the window. Why?

Politicians are held to different standards. We're outraged when there's a scandal or when political corruption is exposed. We scratch our heads and wonder why our representatives won't stand up for the right things.

Why don't they listen to the "American people"? Why don't they follow the Constitution? Why do they roll over on important issues without a fight?

"Throw them all out!" some shout.

Yeah… and then what?

The big surprise isn't that the majority of politicians do the wrong thing. The shocker is… we're surprised each time they do!

Do you think Goldman Sachs is in the derivatives business for the common good? Why does anyone think members of Congress are motivated by some higher cause? The vampire squid and the debt leviathan are both staffed by men and women, no?

Once you look at politics like you do economics, something becomes painfully clear:

Your problems can't and won't be solved by imbeciles and hoodlums in Congress or the White House.

Call us defeatist, an anarchist… a fool. We're not just shrugging our shoulders for lack of constructive solutions. The political process is bunk by nature. It will continually leaving you wanting better men to run for office.

Washington collects smaller amounts of money from 300 million people across the country. Then it redistributes larger amounts of money to special interests. To the ordinary person, it doesn't pay to be educated on the issues or spend time lobbying Congress. But to the special interests, it pays to spend millions on smooth-talking lobbyists who will go and convince politicians to spend money on them.

In 2012, Congress granted the National Science Foundation $325,000 to create a robotic squirrel. The goal was to see how a rattlesnake reacted to it. If you take that $325,000 and spread the cost across all 313 million Americans, do you know how much you paid for the robo squirrel? One-tenth of one cent.

Do you know the hoops you'd have to jump through to find out this program was being funded, let alone the time and effort it would take to go and lobby your representative effectively? I don't have hard numbers, but I'm taking a wild guess you'd rather part with your one-tenth of a cent and spend your time doing something else.

But you can bet your bottom dollar that the robo squirrel makers took the time to write Congress and make sure they got that money. Heck, why not? It was good for $325 large!

As it turns out… that's the easy way to get votes too. Think of voters as buyers… and politicians as businessmen. Voters act no differently than investors do. Instead of stocks, they use the ballot box to optimize their own "situation."

Politics is a super magnet for the self righteous, the blow hards… graft seekers and incompetents.

The market has one set of constraints, and the political arena has another. So we see different results. In the market, we can change our mind constantly and vote with our dollars. You can buy one good one day and sell it the next if you'd like. You can be fickle with your choices too. And your neighbor can do what he wants no matter what you do. I can buy chocolate ice cream, and you can buy vanilla.

But in the political arena, it's different. You're stuck with Obama for another four years, like it or not. If all your neighbors like Obama and you don't, you're screwed. Likewise, you can't shop around and mix and match laws or policies. You can't say that you like Obama's policies A, C and E and Ron Paul's policies B, D and F.

Nope, it's a package deal. All or nothing. Imagine if you were forced to buy a grill every time you wanted to just buy a steak. All of this is why the cycle is nearly impossible to break. The natural response is, "If we had the right people, then they would be able to stand up and break this cycle."

Ha!

Politics is a supermagnet for the self-righteous, the blowhards… graft seekers and incompetents. Our mind immediately races to Rep. Hank Johnson (D-Ga.) who honest to god thought Guam would capsize as soon as a few thousand Marines and their families were stationed there. Is anyone honestly holding out for an elected official to fix the world's problems? No. But you might get a fat check if you play your cards right.

If you ask us, too many "voters" are looking for heroes in the wrong place. With the constitutionally granted power to tax, spend, regulate and send people off to war, all congressmen and women should be held suspect. Not just the guys from the other side.

The Daily Reckoning is an equal-opportunity offender. We take pride in roasting parties, politicians and policies of all stripes. Fortunately for us, there are no shortages of new policies, new ways to tinker, improve lives, or "right men" for the job.

Here's a suggestion. The next time you feel so passionately about a politician who you think will make things right, conduct this experiment on your own:

Divide a page down the center and think back to the very first politician. On the left side, total the cost of money spent and frittered away by politicians. Think of the money debauched and of all the lives lost in war and genocide.

Then, on the right side, total all of the wealth created, promises that were kept, the lives that have been saved and the justice that has been served and tell us how it netted out. If you get the same answers we do, you realize what a colossal losing proposition the political process is.

It's true, politicians don't always power grab, nor do they always destroy wealth or always go along to get along… but that's the way to bet they'll act. In our opinion, that means you have a responsibility to protect you and your wealth. You can do that through electioneering or making smart decisions with your investments.

We advise the latter. And we will say one more thing about the government. For every distortion it causes in the market… for every tax dollar it takes from you and gives to another, it creates an investment opportunity. We call it "making the empire pay."

Thanks for reading The Daily Reckoning.

Regards,

Peter Coyne
for

P.S. The government has practically announced where investors can earn gains as high as 12,000% on their money… you just have to know what to listen for. If you read today’s Daily Reckoning email you were given a chance to hear the message loud and clear. If you didn’t… Well, you missed out. But the opportunity is still available, and will undoubtedly appear in our next issue. Sign up for FREE, right here, and start getting the full story.

Stock Market Cycle Top Amidst TNX and WTIC Signs for Deteriorating Economy

Posted: 27 Dec 2013 08:07 AM PST

TNX is now over 3%. What a way to start the New Year! ZeroHedge reports, “While a few media outlets had premature releases yesterday, Bloomberg data just confirmed that for the second time this year, 10Y US Treasury yields have crossed 3% (it was 3.005% in Sept 2013) breaking to the highest since July 2011(right before the yield collapse after the US debt-ceiling downgrade debacle). We are sure the media will proclaim this as 'proof' that the recovery is different this time, except the term structure continues to flatten (suggesting less faith in the future) and to spice things up 30Y mortgage rates have surged to 4.63% - almost the highest since May 2011 - but again, apparently, this won't affect the housing recovery either (even though mortgage apps are down two-thirds from their highs).”

Gold Opening

Posted: 27 Dec 2013 08:00 AM PST

Thomas Clayton writes: Above red EMA9 Minimal Red Volume Bars MACD lines crossed positive, Histogram Bars are above Zero, Stoch RSI Positive Up

Where to Invest in India 2014? Housing? Stocks? Gold & Silver?

Posted: 27 Dec 2013 06:29 AM PST

Where to invest in 2014? Real Estate? Share Market? GOLD & Silver? FD/Bonds? Or Cash?……?? 2013 has remained highly volatile. Let us review few important instances of 2013… Ø On 1st Jan, 2013, Sensex was at 19,580 and as we are near to year end, it is trading around 21000. Less than 10% gain in a year, a flat year for the market.

Gold and Silver Tottering Into the End of the Year

Posted: 27 Dec 2013 02:16 AM PST

"Oh what a tangled web we weave, When first we practise to deceive!" - Sir Walter Scott, Marmion “The arrogance and brutality of empire are not repealed when they temporarily get deployed in a just cause.” - Michael Kazin When governments intervene in markets, other than occasionally and transparently in currency and interest rate markets in pursuit of clear policy, I do not see how they can expect investors to maintain the confidence in their policies and actions.

U.S. uses Exchange Stabilization Fund to rig major markets, Kirby tells USA Watchdog

Posted: 26 Dec 2013 06:41 PM PST

GATA

9:40p ET Thursday, December 26, 2013

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Market analyst and GATA consultant Rob Kirby of Kirby Analytics in Toronto today tells Greg Hunter of USA Watchdog that the U.S. government, through its Exchange Stabilization Fund, is using derivatives to rig strategic markets and especially bond markets. The rigging ends, Kirby says, when China no longer can get gold from the West. The interview is 26 minutes long and can be viewed at USA Watchdog here:

http://usawatchdog.com/colossal-fraud-there-are-no-free-markets-rob-kirb…

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.

* * *

Help keep GATA going

GATA is a civil rights and educational organization based in the United States and tax-exempt under the U.S. Internal Revenue Code. Its e-mail dispatches are free, and you can subscribe at:

http://www.gata.org

To contribute to GATA, please visit:

http://www.gata.org/node/16

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