A unique and safe way to buy gold and silver 2013 Passport To Freedom Residency Kit
Buy Gold & Silver With Bitcoins!

Saturday, December 14, 2013

Gold World News Flash

Gold World News Flash

The world's most expensive share...

Posted: 14 Dec 2013 12:26 AM PST

...and other unsual investment gifts for Christmas. Richard Dyson looks at gold, Premium Bonds and Bitcoin.
    

Gold Drops $20, “I’d Rather Buy Silver,” Says Jim Rogers

Posted: 13 Dec 2013 11:00 PM PST

by Adrian Ash, SilverBearCafe.com:

Wholesale London gold tumbled more than $20 per ounce in quiet trade Thursday morning, falling with world stock markets after the week’s “three-day rally [in gold] prompted some profit-taking” according to one dealing desk.

“The fact that India,” said investor, fund manager and best-selling author Jim Rogers to BullionVault overnight, “which has been the largest buyer, has reduced its buying a lot is one of the main factors that’s causing gold prices to go down.”

Read More @ SilverBearCafe.com

Koos Jansen: China will have imported 2,000 tonnes of gold this year

Posted: 13 Dec 2013 08:46 PM PST

11:50p ET Friday, December 13, 2013

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Gold market researcher and GATA consultant Koos Jansen today presents a comprehensive review of China's gold market, discerns how certain data has misled the GFMS consultancy and its client the World Gold Council into severely underestimating Chinese demand, and concludes that total Chinese gold demand for 2013 will reach well more than 2,500 tonnes and net imports probably 2,000 tonnes. The latter figure would be most of annual world gold mine production, leaving little for India and the rest of Asia even as they also are recognized as big importers. This raises the question of where all the extra metal is coming from if not, as Sprott Asset Management's Eric Sprott has inferred, from Western central bank vaults through surreptitious swaps and leases and from the spooking of investors in Western exchange-traded funds.

Jansen's commentary is headlined "Shanghai Gold Exchange Physical Delivery Equals Chinese Demand, Part 2" and it's posted at his Internet site, In Gold We Trust, here:

http://www.ingoldwetrust.ch/shanghai-gold-exchange-physical-delivery-equ...

Meanwhile, interviewed by J.T. Long for The Gold Report, CPM Group Managing Partner Jeffrey Christian contends that gold's decline in price results not from market manipulation but from a massive decline in investment demand. The interview with Christian is headlined "Lack of Demand, Not Manipulation, Behind Gold Price Drop, Says CPM's Jeffrey Christian" and it's posted here:

http://www.theaureport.com/pub/na/lack-of-demand-not-manipulation-behind...

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.


ADVERTISEMENT

Buy metals at GoldMoney and enjoy international storage

GoldMoney was established in 2001 by James and Geoff Turk and is safeguarding more than $1.7 billion in metals and currencies. Buy gold, silver, platinum, and palladium from GoldMoney over the Internet and store them in vaults in Canada, Hong Kong, Singapore, Switzerland, and the United Kingdom, ­taking advantage of GoldMoney's low storage rates, among the most competitive in the industry. GoldMoney also offers delivery of 100-gram and 1-kilogram gold bars and 1-kilogram silver bars. To learn more, please visit:

http://www.goldmoney.com/?gmrefcode=gata


Join GATA here:

Vancouver Resource Investment Conference
Vancouver Convention Centre West
Sunday-Monday, January 19-20, 2014
Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada

http://www.cambridgehouse.com/event/vancouver-resource-investment-confer...

* * *

Support GATA by purchasing DVDs of our London conference in August 2011 or our Dawson City conference in August 2006:

http://www.goldrush21.com/order.html

Or by purchasing a colorful GATA T-shirt:

http://gata.org/tshirts

Or a colorful poster of GATA's full-page ad in The Wall Street Journal on January 31, 2009:

http://gata.org/node/wallstreetjournal

Help keep GATA going

GATA is a civil rights and educational organization based in the United States and tax-exempt under the U.S. Internal Revenue Code. Its e-mail dispatches are free, and you can subscribe at:

http://www.gata.org

To contribute to GATA, please visit:

http://www.gata.org/node/16


ADVERTISEMENT

How to profit with silver --
and which stocks to buy now

Future Money Trends is offering a special 16-page silver report with our forecast for 2013 that includes profiles of nine companies and technical analysis of their stock performance. Six of the companies have market capitalizations of less than $800 million and one company has a market cap of only $30 million. The most exciting of these companies will begin production in a few weeks and has a market cap of just $150 million.

Half of all proceeds from the sale of this report will be donated to the Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee to support its efforts exposing manipulation and fraud in the gold and silver markets.

To learn about this report, please visit:

http://www.futuremoneytrends.com/index.php?option=com_content&id=376&tmp...

Deutsche Bank Investigated In Gold Manipulation Probe

Posted: 13 Dec 2013 08:39 PM PST

from ZeroHedge:

A month ago, regulators in Europe began their investigation into manipulation of the “London gold fixing” (and we explained the methods here). While the complete history of gold manipulation goes a lot deeper than just banging the close on this crucial benchmark (which goes back to first world war); the decision by Germany’s financial regulator (BaFin) to probe Deutsche Bank signals greater concerns over the precious metals markets.  As The FT reports, BaFin has demanded emails and documents from Deutsche Bank as part of an investigation into potential manipulation of gold and silver prices.

Read More @ ZeroHedge.com

Volatility faked out gold investors in the 1970s too, Sprott's Rule says

Posted: 13 Dec 2013 07:45 PM PST

10:40p ET Friday, December 13, 2013

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Sprott Asset Management's Rick Rule notes today that gold investors who were faked out by early volatility in the metal's bull market in the 1970s missed a move of 800 percent. Rule also endorses subjecting careless investors to bank "bail-ins." His comments come in an interview with Sprott Money's weekly wrap-up program, continue for just more than eight minutes, and can be heard here:

https://soundcloud.com/sprottmoney/sprott-money-weekly-wrap-up-ep11

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.


ADVERTISEMENT

Buy metals at GoldMoney and enjoy international storage

GoldMoney was established in 2001 by James and Geoff Turk and is safeguarding more than $1.7 billion in metals and currencies. Buy gold, silver, platinum, and palladium from GoldMoney over the Internet and store them in vaults in Canada, Hong Kong, Singapore, Switzerland, and the United Kingdom, ­taking advantage of GoldMoney's low storage rates, among the most competitive in the industry. GoldMoney also offers delivery of 100-gram and 1-kilogram gold bars and 1-kilogram silver bars. To learn more, please visit:

http://www.goldmoney.com/?gmrefcode=gata


Join GATA here:

Vancouver Resource Investment Conference
Vancouver Convention Centre West
Sunday-Monday, January 19-20, 2014
Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada

http://www.cambridgehouse.com/event/vancouver-resource-investment-confer...

* * *

Support GATA by purchasing DVDs of our London conference in August 2011 or our Dawson City conference in August 2006:

http://www.goldrush21.com/order.html

Or by purchasing a colorful GATA T-shirt:

http://gata.org/tshirts

Or a colorful poster of GATA's full-page ad in The Wall Street Journal on January 31, 2009:

http://gata.org/node/wallstreetjournal

Help keep GATA going

GATA is a civil rights and educational organization based in the United States and tax-exempt under the U.S. Internal Revenue Code. Its e-mail dispatches are free, and you can subscribe at:

http://www.gata.org

To contribute to GATA, please visit:

http://www.gata.org/node/16


ADVERTISEMENT

How to profit with silver --
and which stocks to buy now

Future Money Trends is offering a special 16-page silver report with our forecast for 2013 that includes profiles of nine companies and technical analysis of their stock performance. Six of the companies have market capitalizations of less than $800 million and one company has a market cap of only $30 million. The most exciting of these companies will begin production in a few weeks and has a market cap of just $150 million.

Half of all proceeds from the sale of this report will be donated to the Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee to support its efforts exposing manipulation and fraud in the gold and silver markets.

To learn about this report, please visit:

http://www.futuremoneytrends.com/index.php?option=com_content&id=376&tmp...

Disaster Insurance Ahead of the Dollar Collapse

Posted: 13 Dec 2013 07:32 PM PST

Jeffrey Lewis

Is War With China Inevitable?

Posted: 13 Dec 2013 07:10 PM PST

Submitted by Brandon Smith of Alt-Market blog,

As a general rule, extreme economic decline is almost always followed by extreme international conflict. Sometimes, these disasters can be attributed to the human survival imperative and the desire to accumulate resources during crisis. But most often, war amid fiscal distress is usually a means for the political and financial elite to distract the masses away from their empty wallets and empty stomachs.

War galvanizes societies, usually under false pretenses. I’m not talking about superficial “police actions” or absurd crusades to “spread democracy” to Third World enclaves that don’t want it. No, I’m talking about REAL war: war that threatens the fabric of a culture, war that tumbles violently across people’s doorsteps. The reality of near-total annihilation is what oligarchs use to avoid blame for economic distress while molding nations and populations.

Because of the very predictable correlation between financial catastrophe and military conflagration, it makes quite a bit of sense for Americans today to be concerned. Never before in history has our country been so close to full-spectrum economic collapse, the kind that kills currencies and simultaneously plunges hundreds of millions of people into poverty. It is a collapse that has progressed thanks to the deliberate efforts of international financiers and central banks. It only follows that the mind-boggling scale of the situation would “require” a grand distraction to match.

It is difficult to predict what form this distraction will take and where it will begin, primarily because the elites have so many options. The Mideast is certainly an ever-looming possibility. Iran is a viable catalyst. Syria is not entirely off the table. Saudi Arabia and Israel are now essentially working together, forming a strange alliance that could promise considerable turmoil — even without the aid of the United States. Plenty of Americans still fear the Al Qaeda bogeyman, and a terrorist attack is not hard to fabricate. However, when I look at the shift of economic power and military deployment, the potential danger areas appear to be growing not only in the dry deserts of Syria and Iran, but also in the politically volatile waters of the East China Sea.

China is THE key to any outright implosion of the U.S. monetary system. Other countries, like Saudi Arabia, may play a part; but ultimately it will be China that deals the decisive blow against the dollar’s world reserve status. China’s dollar and Treasury bond holdings could be used as a weapon to trigger a global sell-off of dollar-denominated assets. China has stopped future increases of dollar forex holdings, and has cut the use of the dollar in bilateral trade agreements with multiple countries.  Oil-producing nations are shifting alliances to China because it is now the world’s largest consumer of petroleum. And, China has clearly been preparing for this eventuality for years. So, given these circumstances, how can the U.S. government conceive of confrontation with the East? Challenging one’s creditors to a duel does not usually end well. At the very least, it would be economic suicide. But perhaps that is the point. Perhaps America is meant to make this seemingly idiotic leap.

Here are just some of the signs of a buildup to conflict...

Currency Wars And Shooting Wars

In March 2009, U.S. military and intelligence officials gathered to participate in a simulated war game, a hypothetical economic struggle between the United States and China.

The conclusions of the war game were ominous. The participants determined that there was no way for the United States to win in an economic battle with China. The Chinese had a counterstrategy to every U.S. effort and an ace up their sleeve – namely, their U.S. dollar reserves, which they could use as a monetary neutron bomb, a chain reaction that would result in the abandonment of the dollar by exporters around the world . They also found that China has been quietly accumulating hard assets (including land and gold) across globe, using sovereign wealth funds, government-controlled front companies, and private equity funds to make the purchases. China could use these tangible assets as a hedge to protect against the eventual devaluation of its U.S. dollar and Treasury holdings, meaning the losses on its remaining U.S. financial investments was acceptable should it decide to crush the dollar.

The natural response of those skeptical of the war game and its findings is to claim that the American military would be the ultimate trump card and probable response to a Chinese economic threat. Of course, China’s relationship with Russia suggests a possible alliance against such an action and would definitely negate the use of nuclear weapons (unless the elites plan nuclear Armageddon). That said, it is highly likely that the U.S. government would respond with military action to a Chinese dollar dump, not unlike Germany’s rise to militarization and totalitarianism after the hyperinflationary implosion of the mark. The idea that anyone except the internationalists could “win” such a venture, though, is foolish.

I would suggest that this may actually be the plan of globalists in the United States and their counterparts in Asia and Europe. China’s rise to financial prominence is not due to its economic prowess. In fact, China is ripe with poor fiscal judgment calls and infrastructure projects that have gone nowhere. But what China does have on its side are massive capital inflows from global banks and corporations, mainly based in the United States and the European Union. And, it has help in the spread of its currency (the Yuan) from entities like JPMorgan Chase and Co. The International Monetary Fund is seeking to include China in its global basket currency, the SDR, which would give China even more leverage to use in breaking the dollar’s reserve status. Corporate financiers and central bankers have made it more than possible for China to kill the dollar, which they openly suggest is a “good thing.”

Is it possible that the war game scenarios carried out by the Pentagon and elitist think-tanks like the RAND Corporation were not meant to prevent a war with China, but to ensure one takes place?

The Senkaku Islands

Every terrible war has a trigger point, an event that history books later claim “started it all.” For the Spanish-American War, it was the bombing of the USS Maine. For World War I it was the assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand of Austria. For U.S. involvement in World War I, it was the sinking of the Lusitania by a German U-Boat. For U.S. involvement in World War II, it was the attack on Pearl Harbor. For Vietnam, it was the Gulf of Tonkin Incident (I recommend readers look into the hidden history behind all of these events). While the initial outbreak of war always appears to be spontaneous, the reality is that most wars are planned far in advance.

As evidence indicates, China has been deliberately positioned to levy an economic blow against the United States. Our government is fully aware what the results of that attack will be, considering they have gamed the scenario multiple times. And, by RAND Corporation’s own admission, China and the United States have been preparing for physical confrontation for some time, centered on the concept of pre-emptive strikes.  Meaning, the response both sides have exclusively trained for in the event of confrontation is to attack the other first!

The seemingly simple and petty dispute over the Senkaku Islands in the East China Sea actually provides a perfect environment for the pre-emptive powder keg to explode.

China has recently declared an “air defense zone” that extends over the islands, which Japan has already claimed as its own. China, South Korea and the United States have all moved to defy this defense zone. South Korea has even extended its own air defense zone to overlap China’s.

China has responded with warnings that its military aircraft will now monitor the region and demands that other nations provide it with civilian airline flight paths.  China has also stated that it plans to create MORE arbitrary defense zones in the near future.

The U.S. government under Barack Obama has long planned a military shift into the Pacific, which is meant specifically to counter China’s increased presence. It’s almost as if the White House knew a confrontation was coming.

The shift is now accelerating due to the Senkaku situation, as the U.S. transfers submarine-hunting jets to Japan while pledging full support for Japan should war ignite.

And most recently, the Japanese press has suggested that war between the two countries could erupt as early as January.

China, with its limited navy, has focused more of its energy and funding into advanced missile technologies — including “ship killers,” which fly too low and fast to be detected with current radar.  This is the same strategy of cheap compact precision warfare being adopted by countries like Syria and Iran, and it is designed specifically to disrupt tradition American military tactics.

Currently, very little diplomatic headway has been made or attempted in regards to the Senkaku Islands. The culmination of various ingredients so far makes for a sour stew.

All that is required now is that one trigger event — that one ironic “twist of fate” that mainstream historians love so much, the spark that lights the fuse. China could suddenly sell a mass quantity of U.S. Treasuries, perhaps in response to the renewed debt debate next spring. The United States could use pre-emption to take down a Chinese military plane or submarine.  A random missile could destroy a passenger airliner traveling through the defense zone, and both sides could blame each other. The point is nothing good could come from the escalation over Senkaku.

Why Is War Useful?

What could possibly be gained by fomenting a war between the United States and China?  What could possibly be gained by throwing America's economy, the supposed "goose that lays the golden eggs", to the fiscal wolves?  As stated earlier, distraction is paramount, and fear is valuable political and social capital.

Global financiers created the circumstances that have led to America’s probable economic demise, but they don’t want to be blamed for it. War provides the perfect cover for monetary collapse, and a war with China might become the cover to end all covers. The resulting fiscal damage and the terror Americans would face could be overwhelming. Activists who question the legitimacy of the U.S. government and its actions, once considered champions of free speech, could easily be labeled “treasonous” during wartime by authorities and the frightened masses. (If the government is willing to use the Internal Revenue Service against us today, just think about who it will send after us during the chaos of a losing war tomorrow.) A lockdown of civil liberties could be instituted behind the fog of this national panic.

Primarily, war tends to influence the masses to agree to more centralization, to relinquish their rights in the name of the “greater good”, and to accept less transparency in government and more power in the hands of fewer people. Most important, though, is war's usefulness as a philosophical manipulation after the dust has settled.

After nearly every war of the 20th and 21st century, the subsequent propaganda implies one message in particular: National sovereignty, or nationalism, is the cause of all our problems. The establishment then claims that there is only one solution that will solve these problems: globalization. This article by Andrew Hunter, the chairman of the Australian Fabian Society, is exactly the kind of narrative I expect to hear if conflict arises between the United States and China.

National identity and sovereignty are the scapegoats, and the Fabians (globalist propagandists) are quick to point a finger. Their assertion is that nation states should no longer exist, borders should be erased and a one-world economic system and government should be founded. Only then will war and financial strife end. Who will be in charge of this interdependent one world utopia? I’ll give you three guesses...

The Fabians, of course, make no mention of global bankers and their instigation of nearly every war and depression for the past 100 years; and these are invariably the same people that will end up in positions of authority if globalization comes to fruition. What the majority of people do not yet understand is that globalists have no loyalties to any particular country, and they are perfectly willing to sacrifice governments, economies, even entire cultures, in the pursuit of their "ideal society".  "Order out of chaos" is their motto, after all.  The bottom line is that a war between China and the United States will not be caused by national sovereignty. Rather, it will be caused by elitists looking for a way to END national sovereignty. That’s why such a hypothetical conflict, a conflict that has been gamed by think tanks for years, is likely to be forced into reality.

Cheviot's Naylor-Leyland interviewed by TF Metals Report on gold manipulation

Posted: 13 Dec 2013 06:36 PM PST

9:32p ET Friday, December 13, 2013

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Gold market manipulation as documented by GATA's late board member Adrian Douglas, the investigation of gold market manipulation by the German financial regulatory agency, and the growing influence of physical gold exchanges in Asia are discussed by Cheviot Asset Management's Ned Naylor-Leyland in a 34-minute interview with the TF Metal Report's Turd Ferguson today:

http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/podcast/5320/tfmr-podcast-ned-naylor-leyla...

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.


ADVERTISEMENT

You Don't Have to Wait for Your Monetary Metal:
All Pro Gold Has Product for Immediate Delivery

Many investors lately report having to wait weeks and even months for delivery of their precious metal orders. All Pro Gold works with the largest wholesalers that have inventory "live" -- ready to go. All Pro Gold can ship these "live" gold and silver products as soon as payment funds clear.

All Pro Gold can provide immediate delivery of 100-ounce Johnson Matthey silver bars, bags of 90 percent junk silver coins, and 1-ounce silver Austrian Philharmonics.

All Pro Gold can deliver silver Canadian maple leafs with a two-day delay and 1-ounce U.S. silver eagles with a 15-day delay.

Traditional 1-ounce gold bullion coins and mint-state generic gold double eagles are also available for immediate delivery.

All Pro Gold has competitive pricing, and its proprietors, longtime GATA supporters Fred Goldstein and Tim Murphy, are glad to answer any questions or concerns of buyers about the acquisition of precious metals and numismatic coins.

Learn more at www.allprogold.com or email info@allprogold.com or telephone All Pro Gold toll-free at 1-855-377-4653.


Join GATA here:

Vancouver Resource Investment Conference
Vancouver Convention Centre West
Sunday-Monday, January 19-20, 2014
Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada

http://www.cambridgehouse.com/event/vancouver-resource-investment-confer...

* * *

Support GATA by purchasing DVDs of our London conference in August 2011 or our Dawson City conference in August 2006:

http://www.goldrush21.com/order.html

Or by purchasing a colorful GATA T-shirt:

http://gata.org/tshirts

Or a colorful poster of GATA's full-page ad in The Wall Street Journal on January 31, 2009:

http://gata.org/node/wallstreetjournal

Help keep GATA going

GATA is a civil rights and educational organization based in the United States and tax-exempt under the U.S. Internal Revenue Code. Its e-mail dispatches are free, and you can subscribe at:

http://www.gata.org

To contribute to GATA, please visit:

http://www.gata.org/node/16

A Penny-Stock Trader's Diary "Our Brains Are Hard-Wired To Get Us Into Investing Trouble"

Posted: 13 Dec 2013 06:05 PM PST

Originally posted at The Idiot Tax blog,

I'd been watching the stock for at least a month. A small time oil & gas company in Africa. It managed to secure a huge land position for a company of its size. Looked very promising, well funded for some time. Management previously had success putting together a similar land position with another company before it was swallowed early. But, still highly speculative.This one wouldn't be dropping a drill on dirt until late 2014. Maybe 2015.

Being a stingy bugger and without a catalyst in the market, I kept sniffing around for a while before I finally slid my buy order in at 18.5 cents - this dude wasn't going to pay the current market price of 20 cents! Maybe even 18.5 was too much. When it dropped to 19.5, I began to believe my order would get filled, but then when it hit 19 cents my mind started to desert me.

"I could get this for 18 cents."

Volume. There wasn't a great deal of it. In fact it was being pushed down on mild trades. Someone needed a new flatscreen or wanted to get their kid Optimus Prime for Christmas. There was no prospect that enough shares would be dumped and I'd get my fill at 18 cents. The holding was tight and the sell side was thin. Regardless, I hit the amend button and my order dropped down the queue to 18 cents.

I assume you know where this story is going. You're probably wondering why I'm telling it when it inevitably makes me look like an idiot. So why tell? I've read countless explanations of investor psychology in a general sense, but rarely does anyone put their name to a calamity, or at least their nom de plume.

Everyone can recognise these paragraphs by Heidi Lefer and Ildiko Mohacsy, in  Journal of the American Academy of Psychoanalysis and Dynamic Psychiatry, but there's little personality to it and no experience. 

Economic bubbles and crashes have occurred regularly through history-from Holland's 17th century tulip mania, to America's 19th century railway mania, to the 1990s high-tech obsession. Though most investors regard themselves as investing rationally, few do. Instead they react collectively, buying high and selling low in crowds. Being subject to the illusion of control, they follow regressive behavior patterns and irrational, wishful thinking. They are victimized by their own emotions of hope, fear, and uncertainty. 

When people feel doubt and panic, they regress to an earlier stage either individually or en masse. Under stress, they revert to affect (Mohacsy & Silver, 1980). Such mobbing has an obvious psychological counterpart in the market. Here, crowds are governed by wishful thinking. "Investors are coached to believe that a stock is a better buy when the price rises, that it's 'safer' to join the crowd in betting the price up and 'riskier' to buy a stock declining in price" (Vick, 1999, p. 7). Investors also join a crowd to minimize regret. If something goes wrong, they know others behaved the same way. 

We recognise it when exuberance makes charts go vertically up or when stone cold fear pushes them ruthlessly down, but our ego inevitably makes us shy away admitting that we take part in any function of it - "that's those other sheep". We're merely unemotional observers, until we aren't. Is anyone going to admit they were buying in the final moments before the last bitcoin crash?

It was inevitable that a few short days after Wall Street lovingly embraced Bitcoin as their own, with analysts from Bank of America, Citigroup and others, not to mention the clueless momentum-chasing, peanut gallery vocally flip-flopping on the "currency" after hating it at $200 only to love it at $1200 that Bitcoin... would promptly crash. And crash it did: overnight, following previously reported news that China's Baidu would follow the PBOC in halting acceptance of Bitcoin payment, Bitcoin tumbled from a recent high of $1155 to an almost electronically destined "half-off" touching $576 hours ago, exactly 50% lower, on very heave volume, before a dead cat bounce levitated the currency back to the $800 range, where it may or may not stay much longer, especially if all those who jumped on the bandwagon at over $1000 on "get rich quick" hopes and dreams, only to see massive losses in their P&Ls decide they have had enough.

There will be a strange irony, in that anyone you talk to with a bitcoin experience will have left the building at $1100 - "it was looking bubbly, so I took a profit." Hmmm. The drip that bought at $1155 will be cloaked in anonymity, unless $2200 is later smoked.

Back to me, and the price my mind had agreed pay - 18.5 cents was hit. But where was I? Yeah, I'd cooly (or so I told myself ) shifted another gear down and was expecting to get my happy ending at 17.5 cents. As the share price firmed again, juddering between 19.5 and 20 cents I meekly snuck back to 18.5. At 20 I snuck up to 19, as I wondered whether it might go to 20.5. Of course it did, before coming back to 19.5, at which point I had enough steel to leave my order at 19.

In the midst of this circus, late on a Friday, the buy side appeared to firm considerably and immediately it looked a better buy again - "buy now and I'm with the crowd." After a fortnight of courting and several times being left with my frank in my hand, maybe it was time to make the move and just get my fill at 19.5. But, but, but, this was Friday afternoon and anything could happen over the weekend. Rating agency downgrades, terrorist attack, tsunami, nuclear disaster, alien invasion, apocalypse. And I'd still have to settle on Wednesday!

And something did happen. First it was a market announcement after the close on Friday that their seismic program had shown positive results. Damn, I assumed this was going to cost me another half cent! Then on Monday  - TRADING HALT.

11 minutes before open on Monday morning. I spent most of Monday cursing my stupidity while muttering F-U under my breath. On Wednesday morning the announcement came out - an unsolicited equity placement at an 18% premium to the previous close. A significantly rare and positive event. And on open, the share begins trading at 23.5 cents.

Where's my order? Oh I'd moved it to 22 cents now. Sigh. Yeah it was happening all over again. Though a few price bumps up to 24 and 24.5 cents during the day had me edgy. Now the urge is to get ahead of the game because this is surely going higher.

What didn't help throughout this brain mincing was my constant contact with a share trading forum. Those great analogies that describe a share price ready for take off (see, I just used one then!) were flying into my eyes like poison darts. Common sense is blinded and it further makes me think I gotta get in!

Toot! Toot! Buckle up your seatbelts! The floor is in! A couple of cents will be meaningless soon! 

Then there's also talk of the big boys buying, holidays (not just theme parks, your own private island), early retirement and Ferraris. Sitting on the sidelines and kicking yourself while reading this is a little unnerving, but a slap to the face and you quickly regain perspective. The real issue becomes the now moving share price. Even if you block out the chat room noise, with every half cent it's somehow a better investment - or speculation as it were. Yet last week every half cent movement downward made it waft like sun-baking salmon. Someone's selling, something must be wrong. Drag that order down so you won't overpay!

 

After again playing tag and miss with the price for most of the day, a gap opened up at 22.5 towards closing time. That was the entry point. No more mental gymnastics trying to second guess the next movement - if I got hit, I got hit. I placed my order. It sat near the top of the queue and with one foul swoop at 3:51pm I became a shareholder. A few minutes later the price went back to 23 cents and that's where it closed for the day. After two weeks of games, and being led around by my nose, it was a very painless exercise. Yet I had little control until I pinched my brain in those final moments. There was some satisfaction that I paid less than the premium placement that instigated the jump in price, but I still paid 21% more than if I'd just left my initial order 18.5 cents.

Again, from Heidi Lefer and Ildiko Mohacsy, in  Journal of the American Academy of Psychoanalysis and Dynamic Psychiatry - I'm guilty as charged.

Our brains are hard-wired to get us into investing trouble; humans are pattern-seeking animals . . . .Our brains are designed to perceive trends even where they might not exist. After an event occurs just two or three times in a row . . . the anterior cingulate and nucleus accumbens automatically anticipate that it will happen again. If it does repeat . . . dopamine is released . . . .Thus, if a stock goes up a few times in a row, you can reflexively expect it to keep going up . . . .Brain chemistry changes as the stock rises, giving . . . a "natural high." You effectively become addicted to your own predictions.

At last close the share price sat at 31.5 cents. I'm in, I'm ahead and I'm finally calm. But I still can't believe how ridiculous my mental gymnastics became. I've got no clue how many trades I've completed over the years, but any time I'm buying a new company this farce reappears.

The share forums have gone wild over the company. Just by reading them the brain could start firing with thoughts of short changing your future family tree by not taking a position. I felt similar insanity that day I realised I'd be paying 21% more than I'd initially intended.

It's gone up consistently for weeks. It will keep going up, surely? No, I don't think that any longer, but that's the mental game any potential new entrant is faced with. Now, as a shareholder, I'm less concerned if it goes up or not. I just don't have to worry about being left behind if it does.

My terror now? The prospect of fighting my uncontrollable and irrational mind when it comes time to sell. Another two weeks to get an extra three cents, before eventually chasing the price two cents down?

If I can ruthlessly control my saving and spending, surely the same control can be applied to investing (or speculating).

Sooner or later I'll find out.

Faber, Rogers, Dent, Maloney, & Stockman – What Do They Say Is Coming In 2014?

Posted: 13 Dec 2013 04:26 PM PST

Submitted by Michael Snyder of The Economic Collapse blog,

Some of the most respected prognosticators in the financial world are warning that what is coming in 2014 and beyond is going to shake America to the core.  Many of the quotes that you are about to read are from individuals that actually predicted the subprime mortgage meltdown and the financial crisis of 2008 ahead of time.  So they have a track record of being right.  Does that guarantee that they will be right about what is coming in 2014?  Of course not.  In fact, as you will see below, not all of them agree about exactly what is coming next.  But without a doubt, all of their forecasts are quite ominous.  The following are quotes from Harry Dent, Marc Faber, Gerald Celente, Mike Maloney, Jim Rogers and nine other respected economic experts about what they believe is coming in 2014 and beyond...

-Harry Dent, author of The Great Depression Ahead: "Our best long-term and intermediate cycles suggest another slowdown and stock crash accelerating between very early 2014 and early 2015, and possibly lasting well into 2015 or even 2016. The worst economic trends due to demographics will hit between 2014 and 2019. The U.S. economy is likely to suffer a minor or major crash by early 2015 and another between late 2017 and late 2019 or early 2020 at the latest."

-Marc Faber, editor and publisher of the Gloom, Boom & Doom Report: "You have to say that we are again in a massive financial bubble in bonds, in equities, in [other] asset prices that have gone up dramatically."

-Gerald Celente: "Any self-respecting adult that hears McConnell, Reid, Boehner, Ryan, one after another, and buys this baloney… they deserve what they get.

And as for the international scene… the whole thing is collapsing.

That’s our forecast.

We are saying that by the second quarter of 2014, we expect the bottom to fall out… or something to divert our attention as it falls out."

-Mike Maloney, host of Hidden Secrets of Money: "I think the crash of 2008 was just a speed bump on the way to the main event… the consequences are gonna be horrific… the rest of the decade will bring us the greatest financial calamity in history."

-Jim Rogers: "You saw what happened in 2008-2009, which was worse than the previous economic setback because the debt was so much higher. Well now the debt is staggeringly much higher, and so the next economic problem, whenever it happens and whatever causes it, is going to be worse than in the past, because we have these unbelievable levels of debt, and unbelievable levels of money printing all over the world. Be worried and get prepared. Now it [a collapse] may not happen until 2016 or something, I have no idea when it’s going to happen, but when it comes, be careful."

-Lindsey Williams: "There is going to be a global currency reset."

-CLSA's Russell Napier: "We are on the eve of a deflationary shock which will likely reduce equity valuations from very high to very low levels."

-Oaktree Capital's Howard Marks: "Certainly risk tolerance has been increasing of late; high returns on risky assets have encouraged more of the same; and the markets are becoming more heated. The bottom line varies from sector to sector, but I have no doubt that markets are riskier than at any other time since the depths of the crisis in late 2008 (for credit) or early 2009 (for equities), and they are becoming more so."

-Financial editor Jeff Berwick: "If they allow interest rates to rise, it will effectively make the U.S. government bankrupt and insolvent, and it would make the U.S. government collapse. . . . They are preparing for a major societal collapse.  It is obvious and it will happen, and it will be very scary and very dangerous."

-Michael Pento, founder of Pento Portfolio Strategies: "Disappointingly, it is much more probable that the government has brought us out of the Great Recession, only to set us up for the Greater Depression, which lies just on the other side of interest rate normalization."

-Boston University Economics Professor Laurence Kotlikoff: "Eventually somebody recognizes this and starts dumping the bonds, and interest rates go up, and inflation takes off, and were off to the races."

-Mexican Billionaire Hugo Salinas Price: "I think we are going to see a series of bankruptcies.  I think the rise in interest rates is the fatal sign which is going to ignite a derivatives crisis.   This is going to bring down the derivatives system (and the financial system).

There are (over) one quadrillion dollars of derivatives and most of them are related to interest rates.  The spiking of interest rates in the United States may set that off.  What is going to happen in the world is eventually we are going to come to a moment where there is going to be massive bankruptcies around the globe."

-Robert Shiller, one of the winners of the 2013 Nobel prize for economics: "I'm not sounding the alarm yet.  But in many countries the stock price levels are high, and in many real estate markets prices have risen sharply...that could end badly."

-David Stockman, former Director of the Office of Management and Budget under President Ronald Reagan: "We have a massive bubble everywhere, from Japan, to China, Europe, to the UK.  As a result of this, I think world financial markets are extremely dangerous, unstable, and subject to serious trouble and dislocation in the future."

And certainly there are already signs that the U.S. economy is slowing down as we head into the final weeks of 2013.  For example, on Thursday we learned that the number of initial claims for unemployment benefits increased by 68,000 last week to a disturbingly high total of 368,000.  That was the largest increase that we have seen in more than a year.

In addition, as I wrote about the other day, rail traffic is way down right now.  In fact, for the week ending November 30th, U.S. rail traffic was down 16.3 percent from the same week one year earlier.  That is a very important indicator that economic activity is getting slower.

And we continue to get more evidence that the middle class is being steadily eroded and that poverty in America is rapidly growing.  For example, a survey that was just released found that requests for food assistance and the level of homelessness have both risen significantly in major U.S. cities over the past year...

A survey of 25 American cities, including many of the nation's largest, showed yearly increases in food aid and homelessness.

 

The cities, located throughout 18 states, saw requests for emergency food aid rise by an average of seven percent compared with the previous period a year earlier, according to the US Conference of Mayors study, published Wednesday.

 

All but four cities reported an increase in demand for assistance between the period of September 2012 through August 2013.

Unfortunately, if the economic experts quoted above are correct, this is just the beginning of our problems.

The next wave of the economic collapse is rapidly approaching, and things are going to get much worse than this.

The Gold Price Bounced Back Closing Up for the Week at $1,235.70

Posted: 13 Dec 2013 04:22 PM PST

Gold Price Close Today : 1,235.70
Gold Price Close 5-Dec-13 : 1,230.30
Change : 5.40 or 0.4%

Silver Price Close Today : 19.559
Silver Price Close 5-Dec-13 : 19.465
Change : 0.094 or 0.5%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 63.178
Gold Silver Ratio 5-Dec-13 : 63.206
Change : -0.028 or 0.0%

Silver Gold Ratio : 0.01583
Silver Gold Ratio 5-Dec-13 : 0.01582
Change : 0.000 or 0.0%

Dow in Gold Dollars : $ 263.57
Dow in Gold Dollars 5-Dec-13 : $ 269.18
Change : -5.61 or -2.1%

Dow in Gold Ounces : 12.750
Dow in Gold Ounces 5-Dec-13 : 13.021
Change : -0.27 or -2.1%

Dow in Silver Ounces : 805.53
Dow in Silver Ounces 5-Dec-13 : 823.03
Change : -17.50 or -2.1%

Dow Industrial : 15,755.36
Dow Industrial 5-Dec-13 : 16,020.20
Change : -264.84 or -1.7%

S&P 500 : 1,775.82
S&P 500 5-Dec-13 : 1,805.09
Change : -29.27 or -1.6%

US Dollar Index : 80.210
US Dollar Index 5-Dec-13 : 80.270
Change : -0.06 or -0.1%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1,362.00
Platinum Price Close 5-Dec-13 : 1,355.40
Change : 6.60 or 0.5%

Palladium Price Close Today : 715.75
Palladium Price Close 5-Dec-13 : 735.45
Change : -19.70 or -2.7%

Today silver and GOLD PRICES bounced back, moderately. the gold price gained $9.70 to a Comex close at $1,235.70. Silver found 15.7 cent to raise it to 1955.9, not much given the high came at 1974c. On a weekly chart gold flashed an MACD buy signal two weeks ago, but it's a near thing.

On the daily chart the GOLD PRICE broke out over the downtrend line from the October high on Monday, and today's action merely took it back to that line for a Kiss Good-Bye. Yeah, that sounds loony, but there 'tis. Other indicators pointing up, too, but we need some confirmation. First I'd like to see a gold price above that 20 DMA (1,245) next week early then closing above $1,257.50 (last high) and $1,295 (where it broke down).

The SILVER PRICE monthly chart is a cliffhanger, with silver dead on the uptrend line. On a weekly chart it's just beneath the downtrend line.

Today like gold, silver merely moved back to that downtrend line it had burst though on 6 December. Everything but the Rate of Change points up.

Next week will be interesting. We'll either see a big metals slide below recent lows, or gains confirming that bottom on 6 December.

The worm turned this week, but not without speaking out of both sides of his mouth. Stocks dropped for the second week in a row. Dollar index flatlined.

Dow managed a face saving little rise today after losing 286.1 the three days before. Added 15.93 or 0.1% to 15,755.36. S&P500 lost still, down 0.18 to $1,775.32, after making a new high on Monday.

The Dow "threw over," that is, climbed above and outside its upper trading channel line, back on 13 November, a month ago. Yesterday it fell cut through that line like a bag of mothballs pushed out of a C130 cargo jet. It's way below its 20 DMA (15,960) and hovering not far above its 50 DMA (15,655). Nothing in other indicators suggests it plans to turn up any time soon. I suspect this one's going to hurt

S&P 500 offers much the same picture as the Dow -- below its 20 DMA (1795) and nearing its 50 DMA (1762), but it hasn't quite fallen back into that trading channel. The line is about where the 50 DMA is. (It climbed out of that trading channel on 18 October.) So far there's no reason to say "This is The Big One" but stocks are lining up a painful correction.

Y'all may not put as much stock in the Dow in Gold and Dow in Dollars as I do, but only because you haven't followed them as long as I have and witnessed their reliability.

Now a natural born fool from North Carolina wants to know about the Dow in Gold and Dow in Silver. I just divide the price of the Dow by the Gold or Silver price to get the indicator. It is very sensitive -- USUALLY -- to changes in the course of stocks against silver or gold. That's why I've been sweating bullets and spitting iron filings since these indicators crossed above their long term downtrend line. Waiting now for both to drop back under those lines. They sometimes turn before prices turn, or before you can be sure they've turned.

After rising barely through their 20 DMAs yesterday, they dropped back through them today. DiS closed lost 0.92% to close the day at 801.39 oz. DiG ended at 12.73 oz, lower by 0.98%. Both have established downtrends, the first sign that silver and gold are about to turn up against stocks. The move is just starting, so we need to see more confirmation, but all indicators point down.

US Dollar index rose 1.4 basis point today (0.04%) to 80.21. Best you can say for it is that it's no longer under support at 80, and it bumped against its 50 DMA (80.39) today. Otherwise it lacks confidence and decisiveness.

Euro, one of the dollar's three competitors for "Rottenest Fiat Currency on the Earthball," fell a tiny 0.7% to $1.3743. Might make another run for $1.3800.

Yen crashed 0.92% yesterday, and added back 0.15% today, ending at 96.62 cents per Y100. I wish those Japanese Nice Government Men would make up their minds whether they're going to push the yen off the cliff or not.

Y'all enjoy your weekend!

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2013, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission. To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 18 ounces of silver. or 18 ounces of silver. US $ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.

The Gold Price Bounced Back Closing Up for the Week at $1,235.70

Posted: 13 Dec 2013 04:22 PM PST

Gold Price Close Today : 1,235.70
Gold Price Close 5-Dec-13 : 1,230.30
Change : 5.40 or 0.4%

Silver Price Close Today : 19.559
Silver Price Close 5-Dec-13 : 19.465
Change : 0.094 or 0.5%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 63.178
Gold Silver Ratio 5-Dec-13 : 63.206
Change : -0.028 or 0.0%

Silver Gold Ratio : 0.01583
Silver Gold Ratio 5-Dec-13 : 0.01582
Change : 0.000 or 0.0%

Dow in Gold Dollars : $ 263.57
Dow in Gold Dollars 5-Dec-13 : $ 269.18
Change : -5.61 or -2.1%

Dow in Gold Ounces : 12.750
Dow in Gold Ounces 5-Dec-13 : 13.021
Change : -0.27 or -2.1%

Dow in Silver Ounces : 805.53
Dow in Silver Ounces 5-Dec-13 : 823.03
Change : -17.50 or -2.1%

Dow Industrial : 15,755.36
Dow Industrial 5-Dec-13 : 16,020.20
Change : -264.84 or -1.7%

S&P 500 : 1,775.82
S&P 500 5-Dec-13 : 1,805.09
Change : -29.27 or -1.6%

US Dollar Index : 80.210
US Dollar Index 5-Dec-13 : 80.270
Change : -0.06 or -0.1%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1,362.00
Platinum Price Close 5-Dec-13 : 1,355.40
Change : 6.60 or 0.5%

Palladium Price Close Today : 715.75
Palladium Price Close 5-Dec-13 : 735.45
Change : -19.70 or -2.7%

Today silver and GOLD PRICES bounced back, moderately. the gold price gained $9.70 to a Comex close at $1,235.70. Silver found 15.7 cent to raise it to 1955.9, not much given the high came at 1974c. On a weekly chart gold flashed an MACD buy signal two weeks ago, but it's a near thing.

On the daily chart the GOLD PRICE broke out over the downtrend line from the October high on Monday, and today's action merely took it back to that line for a Kiss Good-Bye. Yeah, that sounds loony, but there 'tis. Other indicators pointing up, too, but we need some confirmation. First I'd like to see a gold price above that 20 DMA (1,245) next week early then closing above $1,257.50 (last high) and $1,295 (where it broke down).

The SILVER PRICE monthly chart is a cliffhanger, with silver dead on the uptrend line. On a weekly chart it's just beneath the downtrend line.

Today like gold, silver merely moved back to that downtrend line it had burst though on 6 December. Everything but the Rate of Change points up.

Next week will be interesting. We'll either see a big metals slide below recent lows, or gains confirming that bottom on 6 December.

The worm turned this week, but not without speaking out of both sides of his mouth. Stocks dropped for the second week in a row. Dollar index flatlined.

Dow managed a face saving little rise today after losing 286.1 the three days before. Added 15.93 or 0.1% to 15,755.36. S&P500 lost still, down 0.18 to $1,775.32, after making a new high on Monday.

The Dow "threw over," that is, climbed above and outside its upper trading channel line, back on 13 November, a month ago. Yesterday it fell cut through that line like a bag of mothballs pushed out of a C130 cargo jet. It's way below its 20 DMA (15,960) and hovering not far above its 50 DMA (15,655). Nothing in other indicators suggests it plans to turn up any time soon. I suspect this one's going to hurt

S&P 500 offers much the same picture as the Dow -- below its 20 DMA (1795) and nearing its 50 DMA (1762), but it hasn't quite fallen back into that trading channel. The line is about where the 50 DMA is. (It climbed out of that trading channel on 18 October.) So far there's no reason to say "This is The Big One" but stocks are lining up a painful correction.

Y'all may not put as much stock in the Dow in Gold and Dow in Dollars as I do, but only because you haven't followed them as long as I have and witnessed their reliability.

Now a natural born fool from North Carolina wants to know about the Dow in Gold and Dow in Silver. I just divide the price of the Dow by the Gold or Silver price to get the indicator. It is very sensitive -- USUALLY -- to changes in the course of stocks against silver or gold. That's why I've been sweating bullets and spitting iron filings since these indicators crossed above their long term downtrend line. Waiting now for both to drop back under those lines. They sometimes turn before prices turn, or before you can be sure they've turned.

After rising barely through their 20 DMAs yesterday, they dropped back through them today. DiS closed lost 0.92% to close the day at 801.39 oz. DiG ended at 12.73 oz, lower by 0.98%. Both have established downtrends, the first sign that silver and gold are about to turn up against stocks. The move is just starting, so we need to see more confirmation, but all indicators point down.

US Dollar index rose 1.4 basis point today (0.04%) to 80.21. Best you can say for it is that it's no longer under support at 80, and it bumped against its 50 DMA (80.39) today. Otherwise it lacks confidence and decisiveness.

Euro, one of the dollar's three competitors for "Rottenest Fiat Currency on the Earthball," fell a tiny 0.7% to $1.3743. Might make another run for $1.3800.

Yen crashed 0.92% yesterday, and added back 0.15% today, ending at 96.62 cents per Y100. I wish those Japanese Nice Government Men would make up their minds whether they're going to push the yen off the cliff or not.

Y'all enjoy your weekend!

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2013, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission. To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 18 ounces of silver. or 18 ounces of silver. US $ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.

Gold's Intrinsic Value Vs the US Dollar

Posted: 13 Dec 2013 04:16 PM PST

Many investors argue that Gold has no intrinsic value. I disagree with this assessment as it does not consider the nature of the financial system.

 

Let’s compare Gold to the US Dollar.

 

Every asset in the financial system trades based on relative value. Ultimately, this value is denominated in US Dollars because the Dollar is the reserve currency of the world.

 

However, even the US Dollar itself trades based on relative value. Remember the Dollar is merely a sheet of linen and cotton that is printed by the Fed and is backed by the full faith and credit of the Unites States.

In this sense, the Dollar’s value is derived from the confidence investors that the US will honor its debts.

 

A second item to consider is the fact that the Dollar’s value today also derived from the Fed’s money printing. Indeed, a Dollar today, is worth only 5% of a Dollar’s value from the early 20th century because the Fed has debased the currency.

 

As a result of this the world has adjusted to this change in relative “value” resulting in a Dollar buying less today than it did 100 years ago.

 

In this sense, Gold’s value is derived from investors’ faith in the Financial System (ultimately backstopped by the Dollar) and the Fed’s actions.

 

Gold also moves based on investors’ confidence in the system. If investors’ are afraid that the system is under duress (meaning that they have little confidence in the Dollar-based financial system) then they perceive Gold has having a higher value.

 

Similarly, if the Fed prints Dollars by the billions, Gold is perceived as having a higher value relative to the Dollar.

 

Thus, Gold does not have any less intrinsic value than the US Dollar does. In that regard we can price it relative to the Fed’s actions and to the fear of systemic risk to get an assessment of its true value.

 

As noted a moment ago, every asset in the financial system trades relative to investors’ confidence in that system. With the US Dollar as the reserve currency of the world, that confidence is ultimately based on the idea the US will pay you if it owes you money.

 

If you remove this confidence, then the entire system collapses as the reserve currency is no longer perceived has having value.

 

The problem with this setup however is that the US, like almost every other country in the world (I’m including China which is sporting a Debt to GDP ratio north of 200% if you account for its Shadow Banking liabilities), has made promises that it cannot possibly keep.

 

The US “officially” owes nearly $17 trillion in debt. However, if you include unfunded liabilities this amount surges to at least over $80 trillion and likely north of $100 trillion.

 

These are promises the US has made. And the US Dollar’s value is based on the belief that the US will honor these promises.

 

The US is not isolated in this regard. Indeed, the problem of unfunded liabilities exists throughout the world.

 

In the case of Europe, the situation is so bad that the average EU country would need to have an amount equal to over 400% of its GDP sitting in the bank, earning interest at the government’s borrowing rate, in order to fund its unfunded liabilities.

 

The same goes for Japan and even China where the shadow banking system has liabilities north of 200% of China’s GDP.

 

These are promises that cannot be kept. And when these promises are broken confidence in the system will be broken. This will inevitably lead to a period of currency collapse. After this, ultimately there will be a need to restore confidence in the system.

 

The only way to do this will be by backing currencies with Gold again (or a basket of items that includes Gold).

 

Given the limited amount of Gold in the world, (a little over 171,000 tons) and the enormous amount of US Dollars in the world, this would require a revaluation of Gold to north of $10,000. Dylan Grice formerly of Societe General lays this out beautifully in the below chart.

 

 

I cannot possibly predict when all of this would happen. All I can state with 100% certainty is that ALL fiat currencies throughout history have failed.

 

This failure has been based on a loss of confidence. And the only way to restore confidence is to limit the ability of Central Banks to print money.

 

This will inevitably lead to some form of a Gold backed currency. Gold has been used as currency for over 5,000 years. It will be considered currency again in the future. When it does, the price of Gold will be much higher (remember, Gold has risen over 34 fold in the last 40 years).

 

For a FREE Special Report on how to beat the market both during bull market and bear market runs, visit us at:

http://phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/special-reports.html

 

Best Regards

 

Phoenix Capital Research

 

 

 

Deutsche Bank Investigated In Gold Manipulation Probe

Posted: 13 Dec 2013 03:48 PM PST

A month ago, regulators in Europe began their investigation into manipulation of the "London gold fixing" (and we explained the methods here). While the complete history of gold manipulation goes a lot deeper than just banging the close on this crucial benchmark (which goes back to first world war); the decision by Germany's financial regulator (BaFin) to probe Deutsche Bank signals greater concerns over the precious metals markets.  As The FT reports, BaFin has demanded emails and documents from Deutsche Bank as part of an investigation into potential manipulation of gold and silver prices.

 

Via The FT,

Germany's financial regulator has demanded documents from Deutsche Bank as part of an investigation into potential manipulation of gold and silver prices.

 

...

 

Deutsche Bank is one of five banks that take part in the twice-daily "London gold fixing", and one of three banks that take part in the equivalent process for silver.

 

...

 

Some bankers believe BaFin has come under pressure to show it is willing to get tough on suspected market manipulation. It was widely seen to have been slow to respond to the concerns over possible manipulation in the forex market expressed by other regulators around the world earlier this year.

 

Although the gold and silver fixings are, like Libor, set by small groups of banks, they contrast with the process for setting Libor in that they are based on trading activity rather than theoretical quotes.

 

...

 

The visit to Deutsche offices signals that BaFin now has greater concerns over the precious metals markets. Officials have asked to observe documents and processes related to precious metals trading as well as to interview bankers, the person said.

 

...

 

The other banks that take part in the gold fixing are Barclays, Bank of Nova Scotia, HSBC and Société Générale. The other banks involved in silver fixing are Bank of Nova Scotia and HSBC. As the only German member of either fixing, Deutsche is the only bank to come under BaFin's remit.

Of course, despite day after day of closing price smackdowns (and the very occasaional vertical ramp), we are sure the regulators will find no wrong doing... for, as we noted here, this manipulation is by design, not malfeasance...it's for your own good...

David Morgan: Gold Plays An Important Role In Monetary History

Posted: 13 Dec 2013 02:59 PM PST

In this interview, Sprott Money talks with David Morgan about several topics. We have picked out some interesting parts of the discussion: long and short term outlook for the metals, as well as the part about the gold standard.

The world never has truly gone off a gold standard, as the dollar took over the role of the world reserve currencyin August 1971:

David Morgan: If you go back in history about a decade and you look at the BIS, the Bank of International Settlements, that's the bankers' bank. They accounted in one thing and one thing only, and that was gold. That's the only thing they accounted for, gold.

Now, if you're talking about the central bankers' bank, you're talking about basically the monetary powerhouse of the entire globe. The only thing that they care about is how much gold you have in a nation state. I would certainly say that that somewhat carries merit. The problem is that we really don't know who owns what because of all these swaps, interconnections, hypothecations, and rehypothecations.

I've always thought what would be the event. No one knows. But, if it ever came to light that there is no real gold in Fort Knox, and of course there's a lot of conjecture about that.

If somehow there was a Senate investigation or whatever, pick your idea, and it came to light internationally that "oh no! we opened up the curtain and we saw the wizard, and the wizard is naked. There's no gold at Fort Knox. The US has no gold reserve at all."

If that were ever to come to light I would think that the US dollar could take a huge plunge. Because the perception, maybe not the reality, maybe the reality, is that the US still has a large gold hold, around 265,000,000 ounces of fine gold.

I doubt it, but again, the market's perception. So, you could look at different currencies through history and basically, like it or not, gold bug or not, gold plays an extremely important part in monetary history.

The average public is very happy just to believe whatever the government tells them. What is going to wake people up?

David Morgan: I think it'll be a slow wakeup call. I think it'll be a series of events, or reality checks, I'll call them, that take place. I'll give you a few examples.

Going to the gasoline station and having to wait in a long line. Or, going to the gasoline station and the high grade is out but only medium grade exists. Or, diesel isn't there. In other words, a disruption in the production chain in something as critical as energy.

And, food. going to the grocery store and your favorite brand of XYZ, you name it; bread, peanuts, pizza, I don't care what it is, all of a sudden that's not carried any more. Or, the price of that particular item has gone up substantially. Or, the size has been reduced substantially. Or, again, the shelf is bare. Like, you used to carry this here. Well, that's out of business. Or, they don't carry it any more. We're not going to stock it. The markup is too high.

I think there'll be kind of subtle little things like that. The general populace will start to realize that things are costing more. There are not as many choices as before. There are disruptions that are coming about in my Internet service. There are disruptions in the energy supply. There are disruptions in the food supply.

Those will be things that'll cause people… Because that's on the ground stuff that people do on a daily basis that, awake or asleep, they still will kind of get a wakeup call, so to speak, if they see a disruption. I think that's what'll take place.

On top of that, of course, us that are more awake and more aware will be questioning when is the next bail-in coming and what country is it going to be. And, probably, hopefully. preparing ahead of time until that, in my view, eventuality does take place.

Short term forecast for gold and silver:

David Morgan: Within a year I'm upbeat on 2014, but not extremely so. I mean the breakdown point technically in gold was about $1,550 and in silver $26. Both the metals are under those levels right now.

I think both metals will be above those levels in 2014, but not significantly so, although I do have to give the caveat that anything could accelerate. If there's some big disruption somewhere, some gold delivery that doesn't take place, or silver, or something along those lines, then certainly the market could accelerate. But, I don't see that in 2014.

Long term forecast for gold and silver:

David Morgan: Longer term much higher in value. I don't like to give a paper price although I can. I'm on record back in the early 2000′s saying silver would make it to $100 an ounce, and I think that's very realistic.

Again, I think it's the value. I'm along the lines of Mike Maloney and others that you don't want to focus too much on the paper price, although that's what everyone does and rightfully so. Because if you sell metals you're only going to get it for currency. You're going to take that currency, and it's either going to be a greater amount or a lesser amount than the currency you put into the investment.

You really want to look at the value, what does an ounce of silver buy historically, and what does it buy today. That is the gauge you should use to determine whether or not it's fair valued, undervalued, or overvalued.

If you look at gold, the old adage is, of course, a fine men's suit. You want to look at an ounce of gold, does it still do that? Or, if it buys ten suits then you might consider the fact that it's overvalued on a historical basis.

That's the way I'll be looking at it more than the paper price.

I think it's going far higher. I think you're going to see gold overvalued and silver overvalued, and I think in an extreme way. As I just outlined, I think you'll see where an ounce of gold doesn't buy one fine man's suit, it buys 10 or 50 or some extreme metric. I really think that's where we're going.

I think we'll get there before ten years. I think ten years from now… I'm an optimist really. I might not sound it after I've been painted with the doomer broad brush, and in some cases that'd be valid. But, I'm a realist is what I am. I'm in the reality of what's going on in the financial system. And, things are getting worse, not better, in my very studied opinion.

Regardless, I think ten years from now we could definitely be on the upswing. There are a lot of things out there, like the nanotech world, what's going on in the energy frontier as far as being able to perhaps upgrade the system as a whole and use energy sources that are worthwhile.

I'm not talking about solar and wind. I'm not against them, but they're really not very efficient. But other areas that might deem higher energy flex density where people have more energy available on a per capita basis, the better that is the higher living standard you have. That's pretty easily proven.

Ten years out I'm pretty optimistic. But, I think getting to ten years out is going to be very trying over the next few. I'm looking for round numbers, if you want them.

I think $5,000 an ounce gold is probably realistic. Depending on your view of silver, if you're super optimistic like me and you think it could follow a ten to one ratio you could use that number. Or, you think the current 50 to 1 or 60 to 1 ratio is more appropriate you could use that number.

I think we're probably going to get to a minimum of the classic monetary ratio of 16 to 1 and as high as 10 to 1. I'll be consistent here. I wrote about that many years ago. So, if you saw $5,000 an ounce gold then that would imply one tenth would be $500 silver.

But, let's get past $50 again. I want to be very practical. People ask me all the time what's the ultimate price. I say let's be practical. Let's see it above $26. Let's see how it trades. Let's get it back above $30 and see how much interest are in the metals.

I'll go on the record as saying this. I know markets fairly well. You're not going to see too much buying by the nonsophisticated money at these levels, unfortunately. But, what you will see once you see silver and gold work their ways higher, once you get the gold above, I don't know, pick a level, $1,500; $1,600; $1,700, there'll be a lot more interest in it.

And there'll be a lot of money spent on the metals once they break to new highs. You'll see a lot of money come into gold above the $1,900 level, and you'll see a lot of money come into silver above the $48 level.

It's not too late, because I think they're going far higher than that. It's not nearly as advantageous as buying today. But, the interest in the market today is at a low, and that's how lows are made.

GoldMoney Market Report - Week Ending 13th December: 4:00pm. A Quiet Week Ahead Of Christmas And FOMC

Posted: 13 Dec 2013 02:52 PM PST

Continued Trend of bullion moving from West to east despite quiet week. Read More...

Gold Will Plummet to $500. Charles Ponzi and I believe It.

Posted: 13 Dec 2013 02:29 PM PST

Yup, that is the story. The following arguments explain why Charles Ponzi and I think gold will plummet to around $500 per ounce. Also, after my luncheon date with Elvis, I have a large bridge for sale. If you are interested and willing to make a SERIOUS OFFER, see below.

The price of gold has roughly followed (up, up, and away) the growth of the U.S. national debt since 1971. The national debt is rising like 8% per year or like $1,000,000,000,000 per year. But don't jump to the conclusion that gold prices will continue rising along with the debt! Charles Ponzi and I have faith in congress, lobbyists, and the sincerity of the budget process. We believe the national debt will rapidly fall due to the positive economic stimulus from ObamaCare, from actual budget cuts, and therefore gold should drop to new lows. Mr. Ponzi thinks it could go real low – like $450 or $500.

The other day an out-of-work economist friend and I had lunch. He is a bright guy and he used to work for one of the central banks, or maybe a rating agency, or the IMF. Anyway, the subject of economic forecasting came up, he got this "far-away" look in his eyes, and he started babbling. Perspiration formed on his forehead, and his left eye started twitching. The mood was weird, like really, really strange. I ordered a fourth martini for each of us and gently suggested, "Show me how it is done." He pulled out a handful of bones from his coat pocket and tossed them onto the table. He babbled something about magic Emu bones from the 19th century. Then his eyes bugged open wide and he started panting. He studied the bones for at least a minute and then pronounced, with a slur in his raspy voice, gold will drop to $496 by the end of 2014. Now folks, that was the most compelling forecast I have ever heard. Gold is going much lower, say to $496, fairly soon. Believe it!

It has been widely reported that nearly 50,000,000 people in the U.S. are receiving food stamps or, as it is now called, the SNAP program. I figure those people need the program to help buy food, and that means their job market is still weak. No jobs, no excess cash. No excess cash, no gold purchases by food stamp recipients. No gold purchases, and the price drops. Simple! This is one more reason why the price of gold will drop much lower – back down to the $450 – $550 range.

I read that the recent agreement with Iran was a breakthrough in middle-east politics – sort of a win-win for all parties involved, except for maybe the native tribes of northern Canada. I checked my perception with a bartender friend who works in D.C. where congressional staffers get drunk and hustle lobbyist funding. Based on what he overheard from staffers, he agreed. But I needed confirmation, so I called the White House and read several editorials in liberal newspapers and they all confirmed the triumphant break-through. Stay with me here! If the mid-east problems are solved and the political premium on the price of crude disappears, then gasoline will be a lot less expensive, people will have more confidence in the economy, and, like totally obviously, they will sell gold and buy lots more stuff. I figured I had another big winner – sell gold, sell oil company stocks, and buy consumer stocks. This new mid-east agreement is another big reason why I think gold will drop below $550 per ounce in the upcoming year.

Congressional approval ratings are so bad that I bet I can find more people who have had lunch with Elvis than who think congress is doing a bang-up good job. I figure it is high time for Elvis to make a comeback national tour and for congress to better manage the economy and the dollar. Hence, gold should drop to new lows. Look for $450 – $500 and a new Elvis love song.

Everybody knows the Chinese have been buying all the gold they can grab for the past several years. Even with all their buying, the price of gold has dropped a bunch. Now this is simple – if the price dropped when the Chinese were aggressively buying, how much further will it drop when they slow their buying or totally stop buying gold? Why do I think the Chinese will stop buying gold? Simple – they have bought so much in the past five years, they gotta stop soon – the world might even run out of gold. I figure 2014 is the year they give up on gold purchases and that will cause the price of gold to plummet, maybe even below $400.

I also saw an article in a newspaper called the "D.C. Rag" about a new gold rush. The story ranted on about this scandal of insider democrats buying land in California. They didn't want the land but they wanted the massive deposit of gold that had been recently discovered there in a shallow mine. The "Rag" mentioned that the only problem was the area was overrun by the native Sasquatches, but I'm confident those congressmen will figure something out and get the gold. More gold mined, more supply, lower prices! This stuff is not difficult. Gold is going down!

So there you have it! Gold is gonna drop hard in 2014. Why? Simple! The national debt will go down because Charles Ponzi believes ObamaCare is a good plan and that congress will cut the budget and actually produce a surplus, a weak job market is limiting gold purchases by the people on food stamps, an economist predicted that gold will drop to $496 in 2014, we expect peace in the mid-east, the Chinese will reduce their purchases of gold in 2014, and a new supply of gold has been discovered in the Sasquatch zone of California. I figure it is "an open and shut case." Gold prices are going through the floor, and I just proved it, with help from Elvis, Charles Ponzi, my economist and bartender friends, and simple logic.

Now, about that bridge I have for sale, I can give you a 30% discount if you act today. Serious offers only! Send your information requests to:

GE Christenson
aka Deviant Investor

French central bank secretly trades the gold market almost every day

Posted: 13 Dec 2013 02:17 PM PST

5:16p ET Friday, December 13, 2013

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

The French central bank trades gold for its own account "nearly on a daily basis" and is "active in the gold market for central banks and official institutions," a bank official told a conference of the London Bullion Market Association in Rome on September 30.

The official, Alexandre Gautier, the Banque de France's director of market operations, added that the bank is considering returning to the gold lending business. He implied that the bank's objective in the gold market was simply to earn ordinary profits on trading rather than currency or gold market intervention.

The prepared text of Gautier's remarks has been posted at the LBMA's Internet site here:

http://www.lbma.org.uk/assets/Gautier%2020130930.pdf

And at GATA's Internet site here:

http://www.gata.org/files/BanqueDeFrance.pdf

In contrast, the deputy chief of market operations for Germany's Bundesbank, Clemens Werner, told the LBMA conference that at the German central bank "there is no active management of gold reserves, no buying and selling every day." Werner added that only 9 kilograms of the Bundesbank's gold is held as a mere paper claim -- unallocated metal -- implying confidence that the German gold vaulted at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York remains there unencumbered.

... Dispatch continues below ...


ADVERTISEMENT

Buy metals at GoldMoney and enjoy international storage

GoldMoney was established in 2001 by James and Geoff Turk and is safeguarding more than $1.7 billion in metals and currencies. Buy gold, silver, platinum, and palladium from GoldMoney over the Internet and store them in vaults in Canada, Hong Kong, Singapore, Switzerland, and the United Kingdom, ­taking advantage of GoldMoney's low storage rates, among the most competitive in the industry. GoldMoney also offers delivery of 100-gram and 1-kilogram gold bars and 1-kilogram silver bars. To learn more, please visit:

http://www.goldmoney.com/?gmrefcode=gata


Werner said that after 1999 "there were several attempts and some pressure for the Bundesbank to sell gold" but these were resisted.

A transcript of Werner's remarks is posted at the LBMA's Internet site here:

http://www.lbma.org.uk/assets/Werner%2020130930.pdf

And at GATA's Internet site here:

http://www.gata.org/files/Bundesbank-LBMA-Rome.pdf

Another presentation to the LBMA conference might have been very interesting -- that of the chief of the customer banking division of the Bank of England, whose topic, according to the conference program, posted at the LBMA's Internet site here --

http://www.lbma.org.uk/pages/?page_id=159&title=programme

-- and at GATA's Internet site here --

http://www.gata.org/files/LBMAProgramRome.htm_.txt

-- was "The Bank of England's Gold Vault Operations."

For back in July GoldMoney research director and GATA consultant Alasdair Macleod identified what appeared to be a 1,200-tonne discrepancy in the Bank of England's custodial gold data, a huge decline in custodial gold that seemed to coincide with the smashing of the gold price in April. The Bank of England peremptorily refused your secretary/treasurer's request to explain the discrepancy:

http://www.gata.org/node/12859

Yesterday by e-mail your secretary/treasurer asked the Bank of England to provide a copy of Hunt's presentation to the LBMA conference. No reply has been received yet.

Some conclusions may be drawn here:

-- Central banks intervene in the gold market every day and are likely the biggest participants in the market but they fail to report their trading to the public and it never figures in the market reporting of mainstream financial news organizations or the commentary of most market analysts. For the most part those news organizations and analysts are interpreting mere holograms. Indeed, central banks, the biggest participants in the gold market, are never questioned by news organizations and analysts about their activity in the gold market at all.

-- While they are government institutions, the Bank of England the Banque de France conduct or plan to conduct business in the gold market on behalf of private and unidentified clients.

-- As demonstrated by their participation at the LBMA conference in Rome, the Bank of England and Banque de France share with those private clients information that is not made available to other market participants or to the public generally. That is, the banks are serving their clients and likely advancing some undisclosed government policy.

The documents cited here appear to have been first brought to light by the Another Free Gold Blog here:

http://anotherfreegoldblog.blogspot.nl

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.

* * *

Join GATA here:

Vancouver Resource Investment Conference
Vancouver Convention Centre West
Sunday-Monday, January 19-20, 2014
Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada

http://www.cambridgehouse.com/event/vancouver-resource-investment-confer...

* * *

Support GATA by purchasing DVDs of our London conference in August 2011 or our Dawson City conference in August 2006:

http://www.goldrush21.com/order.html

Or by purchasing a colorful GATA T-shirt:

http://gata.org/tshirts

Or a colorful poster of GATA's full-page ad in The Wall Street Journal on January 31, 2009:

http://gata.org/node/wallstreetjournal

Help keep GATA going

GATA is a civil rights and educational organization based in the United States and tax-exempt under the U.S. Internal Revenue Code. Its e-mail dispatches are free, and you can subscribe at:

http://www.gata.org

To contribute to GATA, please visit:

http://www.gata.org/node/16


ADVERTISEMENT

How to profit with silver --
and which stocks to buy now

Future Money Trends is offering a special 16-page silver report with our forecast for 2013 that includes profiles of nine companies and technical analysis of their stock performance. Six of the companies have market capitalizations of less than $800 million and one company has a market cap of only $30 million. The most exciting of these companies will begin production in a few weeks and has a market cap of just $150 million.

Half of all proceeds from the sale of this report will be donated to the Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee to support its efforts exposing manipulation and fraud in the gold and silver markets.

To learn about this report, please visit:

http://www.futuremoneytrends.com/index.php?option=com_content&id=376&tmp...

AttachmentSize
LBMAProgramRome.htm_.txt53.64 KB
BanqueDeFrance.pdf46.59 KB
Bundesbank-LBMA-Rome.pdf46.62 KB

This posting includes an audio/video/photo media file: Download Now

The 5 Most Remarkable Gold Charts As We Head Into 2014

Posted: 13 Dec 2013 01:45 PM PST

Following up on yesterday's remarkable piece, today one of the great veterans of the gold world sent King World News 5 absolutely incredible graphs and illustrations as 2013 comes to a close, and KWN was given exclusive distribution rights to the outstanding piece below by John Hathaway of Tocqueville Asset Management.

This posting includes an audio/video/photo media file: Download Now

Contrarian Gold Stocks 3

Posted: 13 Dec 2013 01:35 PM PST

The gold-mining stocks have suffered a disastrous year, plummeting while the rest of the stock markets soared. This vast performance gap has catapulted bearishness on this sector to epic extremes. Read More...

Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts - 146,000 Ounces Come Out of JPM's Registered Inventory

Posted: 13 Dec 2013 01:31 PM PST

Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts - 146,000 Ounces Come Out of JPM's Registered Inventory

Posted: 13 Dec 2013 01:31 PM PST

Switzerland to publish detailed gold import and export data monthly

Posted: 13 Dec 2013 11:25 AM PST

Swiss Gold Sector Embraces Transparency, Up to a Point

By Francesca Freeman
The Wall Street Journal
Friday, December 13, 2013

The window into the Swiss gold sector is about to become a little less fogged up.

Starting from Jan. 1, data on Switzerland's gold imports and exports will be released monthly, broken down by country. That's quite a departure from the current system, where Swiss gold trade data is released quarterly, with no information on where it's coming from or going to.

Switzerland is a major trading and refining hub for gold, and the data should shed new light on regional demand for the precious metal. ...

"This is significant not so much for knowing the size of the trade, but in the level of detail it will provide about where gold is going to from Switzerland and where it's coming from," said Matthew Turner, a precious metals analyst at Macquarie.

Of particular interest is how much gold is heading to China -- now the world's top gold consumer, said Mr. Turner. China doesn't publish data on its gold imports, making it difficult to pinpoint exactly how much of the yellow metal is ending up there. ...

... For the complete story:

http://blogs.wsj.com/moneybeat/2013/12/13/swiss-gold-sector-embraces-tra...


ADVERTISEMENT

Buy metals at GoldMoney and enjoy international storage

GoldMoney was established in 2001 by James and Geoff Turk and is safeguarding more than $1.7 billion in metals and currencies. Buy gold, silver, platinum, and palladium from GoldMoney over the Internet and store them in vaults in Canada, Hong Kong, Singapore, Switzerland, and the United Kingdom, ­taking advantage of GoldMoney's low storage rates, among the most competitive in the industry. GoldMoney also offers delivery of 100-gram and 1-kilogram gold bars and 1-kilogram silver bars. To learn more, please visit:

http://www.goldmoney.com/?gmrefcode=gata


Join GATA here:

Vancouver Resource Investment Conference
Vancouver Convention Centre West
Sunday-Monday, January 19-20, 2014
Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada

http://www.cambridgehouse.com/event/vancouver-resource-investment-confer...

* * *

Support GATA by purchasing DVDs of our London conference in August 2011 or our Dawson City conference in August 2006:

http://www.goldrush21.com/order.html

Or by purchasing a colorful GATA T-shirt:

http://gata.org/tshirts

Or a colorful poster of GATA's full-page ad in The Wall Street Journal on January 31, 2009:

http://gata.org/node/wallstreetjournal

Help keep GATA going

GATA is a civil rights and educational organization based in the United States and tax-exempt under the U.S. Internal Revenue Code. Its e-mail dispatches are free, and you can subscribe at:

http://www.gata.org

To contribute to GATA, please visit:

http://www.gata.org/node/16


ADVERTISEMENT

How to profit with silver --
and which stocks to buy now

Future Money Trends is offering a special 16-page silver report with our forecast for 2013 that includes profiles of nine companies and technical analysis of their stock performance. Six of the companies have market capitalizations of less than $800 million and one company has a market cap of only $30 million. The most exciting of these companies will begin production in a few weeks and has a market cap of just $150 million.

Half of all proceeds from the sale of this report will be donated to the Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee to support its efforts exposing manipulation and fraud in the gold and silver markets.

To learn about this report, please visit:

http://www.futuremoneytrends.com/index.php?option=com_content&id=376&tmp...

Doug Casey on Crisis Investing in Cyprus

Posted: 13 Dec 2013 11:22 AM PST

Recently, legendary crisis investor Doug Casey and I put our boots to the ground in Cyprus to search the rubble of one of recent history's most significant financial crises-the financial collapse and bank deposit raid in ... Read More...

Here Are The Most Frightening Statistics As We Head Into 2014

Posted: 13 Dec 2013 10:56 AM PST

As we come to the end of a volatile trading week in global markets, today the 42-year market veteran who correctly predicted that the Fed would not taper shared with King World News the most frightening statistics as we head into 2014. He also discussed what all of this means for gold and silver in 2014. Below is the powerful and timely interview with Egon von Greyerz, who is founder of Matterhorn Asset Management out of Switzerland.

This posting includes an audio/video/photo media file: Download Now

'Inexplicable discrepancy' between real gold and paper gold, Hathaway says

Posted: 13 Dec 2013 09:59 AM PST

1p ET Friday, December 13, 2013

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Interviewed today by King World News, Tocqueville Gold Fund manager John Hathaway says there is an "inexplicable discrepancy" between the market for real gold and the market for paper gold. While this discrepancy is hardly "inexplicable" to GATA in light of the documentation collected here --

http://www.gata.org/taxonomy/term/21

-- at least Hathaway perceives the potential for a short squeeze and predicts that eventually the markets will wise up to the Federal Reserve's doubletalk. An excerpt from the interview is posted at the King World News blog here:

http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2013/12/13_T...

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.


ADVERTISEMENT

You Don't Have to Wait for Your Monetary Metal:
All Pro Gold Has Product for Immediate Delivery

Many investors lately report having to wait weeks and even months for delivery of their precious metal orders. All Pro Gold works with the largest wholesalers that have inventory "live" -- ready to go. All Pro Gold can ship these "live" gold and silver products as soon as payment funds clear.

All Pro Gold can provide immediate delivery of 100-ounce Johnson Matthey silver bars, bags of 90 percent junk silver coins, and 1-ounce silver Austrian Philharmonics.

All Pro Gold can deliver silver Canadian maple leafs with a two-day delay and 1-ounce U.S. silver eagles with a 15-day delay.

Traditional 1-ounce gold bullion coins and mint-state generic gold double eagles are also available for immediate delivery.

All Pro Gold has competitive pricing, and its proprietors, longtime GATA supporters Fred Goldstein and Tim Murphy, are glad to answer any questions or concerns of buyers about the acquisition of precious metals and numismatic coins.

Learn more at www.allprogold.com or email info@allprogold.com or telephone All Pro Gold toll-free at 1-855-377-4653.


Join GATA here:

Vancouver Resource Investment Conference
Vancouver Convention Centre West
Sunday-Monday, January 19-20, 2014
Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada

http://www.cambridgehouse.com/event/vancouver-resource-investment-confer...

* * *

Support GATA by purchasing DVDs of our London conference in August 2011 or our Dawson City conference in August 2006:

http://www.goldrush21.com/order.html

Or by purchasing a colorful GATA T-shirt:

http://gata.org/tshirts

Or a colorful poster of GATA's full-page ad in The Wall Street Journal on January 31, 2009:

http://gata.org/node/wallstreetjournal

Help keep GATA going

GATA is a civil rights and educational organization based in the United States and tax-exempt under the U.S. Internal Revenue Code. Its e-mail dispatches are free, and you can subscribe at:

http://www.gata.org

To contribute to GATA, please visit:

http://www.gata.org/node/16

What Does the Baltic Dry Index Indicate For the Global Economy?

Posted: 13 Dec 2013 09:15 AM PST

The Baltic Dry Index is often looked at as a leading indicator of the global economy as higher shipping rates indicateeconomy-2h-8 stronger demand for shipping and healthier global trade. Year to date, the index is up 234% and is now at its highest level in more than three years. This would indicate that the global economy is picking up steam. 

So say edited excerpts from the introduction to an article entitled Baltic Dry Index Surges to Three Year High posted by the team at bespokeinvest.com.

[The following is presented by Lorimer Wilson, editor of www.FinancialArticleSummariesToday.com and www.munKNEE.com and the FREE Market Intelligence Report newsletter (sample here – register here). The excerpts may have been edited ([ ]), abridged (…) and/or reformatted (some sub-titles and bold/italics emphases) for the sake of clarity and brevity to ensure a fast and easy read. This paragraph must be included in any article re-posting to avoid copyright infringement.]

The article goes on to say in further edited excerpts to ensure you a fast and easy read:

The chart below shows historical readings in the Baltic Dry Index going back to 2007.  While the index is still well off its highs from 2007 and 2008, 2013 has been a great year for shipping rates.

 [Editor's Note: The author's views and conclusions in the above article are unaltered and no personal comments have been included to maintain the integrity of the original post. Furthermore, the views, conclusions and any recommendations offered in this article are not to be construed as an endorsement of such by the editor.]

*http://www.bespokeinvest.com/thinkbig/2013/12/12/baltic-dry-index-surges-to-three-year-high.html (This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs 3.0 Unported License.)

Related Articles:

1. The Baltic Dry Index: Why You Should Use It and How to Do So

The Baltic Dry Index is, in my opinion, the best leading economic indicator to follow when the media is telling us the economy is looking great one week and then predicting a double dip recession the next. Let me explain. Words: 933 Read More »

Previous Articles on the Performance of the Baltic Dry Index

1. Why Did the Baltic Dry Index Collapse? Here’s Why

The Baltic Dry Index is generally viewed as a leading indicator of global economic activity as dry bulk primarily consists of commodities such as building materials, coal, metallic ores and grain. My research, however, indicates that global manufacturing demand has very little to do with it but, rather, Chinese manufacturing demand – but not the actual level of manufacturing as measured by the CFLP Manufacturing PMI. [Let me explain.] Read More »

2. Abandon Ship! Baltic Dry Index on the Rocks of a European Recession

There has been an alarming development for the obscure, yet instructive Baltic Dry Index…[which] tracks the cost of shipping major raw materials (iron ore, coal, grain, cement, copper, sand and gravel, fertilizer and even plastic granules)…It is down 48.4% in the last month…[and] down 54.4% in the last three months. [Let me explain why and how to invest accordingly.] Words: 200 Read More »

3. Latest Baltic Dry Index: NO Global Recession Coming

3 Comments

The Baltic Dry Index is often cited by economists as a bellwether of global economic activity. The index, which measures the price of transporting raw materials by sea, has now risen by more than 21% from its recent lows and is also up 16% in the last week alone …calling into question the advent of a global recession. [Let us explain.] Words: 292 Read More »


 

The post What Does the Baltic Dry Index Indicate For the Global Economy? appeared first on munKNEE dot.com.

Contrarian Gold Stocks Investing

Posted: 13 Dec 2013 09:11 AM PST

The gold-mining stocks have suffered a disastrous year, plummeting while the rest of the stock markets soared.  This vast performance gap has catapulted bearishness on this sector to epic extremes.  Few own gold stocks anymore, and everyone aware of them loathes them.  This has crushed their stock prices to unsustainable fundamentally-absurd levels.  They now offer the ultimate contrarian buying opportunity.

Crisis Investing in Cyprus - Video

Posted: 13 Dec 2013 08:50 AM PST

By Nick Giambruno, Senior Editor, International Man Recently, legendary crisis investor Doug Casey and I put our boots to the ground in Cyprus to search the rubble of one of recent history's most significant financial crisesâ€"the financial collapse and bank deposit raid in Cyprusâ€"for incredible bargains. And we found them.

Signs of Gold's Upcoming Price Decline

Posted: 13 Dec 2013 08:43 AM PST

This week was full of action for precious metals investors and traders. Gold, mining stocks, and (especially) silver rallied in the first days of the week only to disappoint on Wednesday and Thursday. No wonder; the rally didn't have "strong legs" as gold's strength was meager compared to that seen in the euro - another USD alternative. In today's essay we will provide you with 3 gold-related charts (courtesy of http://stockcharts.com), each will tell a different story about gold's performance, but ultimately, they will all point in the same direction - the direction of another move lower in the price of gold.

This Will Trigger A Massive Gold Spike To New All-Time Highs

Posted: 13 Dec 2013 08:19 AM PST

On the heels of tremendous volatility in key global markets, today a 42-year market veteran spoke King World News about what will shock gold market participants and send the price of gold spiking to new all-time highs. John Hathaway, who is one of the most respected institutional minds in the world today when it comes to gold, and whose fund was awarded a coveted 5-star rating, also discussed what this means for investors around the world.

This posting includes an audio/video/photo media file: Download Now

Deutsche Bank under scrutiny in German gold price fixing probe – FT

Posted: 13 Dec 2013 08:07 AM PST

According to the Financial Times, German banking regulator Bafin has demanded documents from Deutsche Bank as part of a price manipulation probe.

Read more….

Gold silver likely to consolidate in US trade after sharp falls

Posted: 13 Dec 2013 08:07 AM PST

The Fed is caught between a rock and a hard place as it weighs convincing growth and ongoing deflation.

Read more….

Cyprus Central Bank not plan to sell gold reserves-sources

Posted: 13 Dec 2013 08:07 AM PST

According to central bank officials, Cyprus has no plans to sell gold reserves in order to fund a 10bn euro bailout.

Read more….

India, US bring sharp changes to gold supply and demand

Posted: 13 Dec 2013 08:07 AM PST

Julian Phillips looks at the fundamental implications of India's recent import curbs, US sales of ETFs and how these might change going forward.

Read more….

Can’t-miss headlines: Gold – week of gains lost, 44m @ 3.2 g/t-Au & 235 g/-Ag & more

Posted: 13 Dec 2013 08:07 AM PST

The latest morning headlines, top junior developments and metal price movements. Today, gold puts a week of gains behind it, Agusta’s Rosemont near final public comment, & more.

Read more….

Amara ups Yaoure gold resource to over 6 million ounces

Posted: 13 Dec 2013 08:07 AM PST

The latest resource estimate for Amara's Yaoure gold project in Cote d'Ivoire at over 6 million ounces Inferred and Indicated makes this potentially bigger than Its Baomahun deposit.

Read more….

3 Signs of Gold's Upcoming Decline

Posted: 13 Dec 2013 07:43 AM PST

This week was full of action for precious metals investors and traders. Gold, mining stocks, and (especially) silver rallied in the first days of the week only to disappoint on Wednesday and Thursday. No wonder; the rally didn't have ... Read More...

Financial, Stock and Commodity Market's Outlook 2014 by Robert Prechter

Posted: 13 Dec 2013 07:31 AM PST

Dear Reader, I may not be Santa Claus, but I have an early present for you this year. It’s actually 15 presents in the form of 15 charts of financial markets with analysis by Bob Prechter, the president of Elliott Wave International. He created these charts – which cover markets like the S&P 500, NASDAQ, gold, and mutual funds – to explain where financial markets have been and where they are headed. These are not your typical price charts. They combine history and patterns to tell the story clearly, all from his distinctly different point of view. With this information, his Elliott Wave Theorist subscribers are now prepared for 2014. And you can be, too, because you can get the full 10-page issue, FREE.

GOLD Bear Market Ending in December

Posted: 13 Dec 2013 06:43 AM PST

Our Last major Elliott Wave Analysis of Gold came in early September when Gold had touched the 1434 area, and in that analysis we called for a re-test of 1271-1285 levels.  This was based on our Elliott Wave Analysis of the patterns involved since the 1923 spot highs in the fall of 2011.  Our clients of course were updated on a regular basis since that public analysis and we have been looking for clues to a bottom in this Gold bear cycle from the 2011 highs.

In The News Today

Posted: 13 Dec 2013 06:43 AM PST

Jim Sinclair’s Commentary The probe from the German watchdog comes as regulators around the world step up their scrutiny of benchmarks after the recent Libor interbank lending scandal led to hefty fines for banks. Gold price probe extended to Deutsche Bank Published: Thursday, 12 Dec 2013 | 7:18 PM ET By: Alice Ross Germany's financial... Read more »

The post In The News Today appeared first on Jim Sinclair's Mineset.

Critical Week Ahead for Gold Bugs as Bear Market Continues

Posted: 13 Dec 2013 06:37 AM PST

LONDON gold in Dollars terms traded flat for the week Friday morning, holding around $1230 per ounceafter what one analyst calls "a tumultuous few days." Stockmarkets ticked higher but London's FTSE100 headed for a 1.5% drop on the week. Silver also erased the last of its mid-week gains, which reached 5.0% yesterday morning, to trade back at $19.55 per ounce.

Gold Could Retest 1180 June Low: Elliott Wave Forecast

Posted: 13 Dec 2013 06:06 AM PST

Gold reversed sharply to the downside at the start of September, through the rising trend line of a corrective channel. As we know that's an important signal for a change in trend, which means that bearish price action is now back in view ... Read More...

Gold: Not the Inflation-Hedge You Might Think

Posted: 13 Dec 2013 06:00 AM PST

I was in St. Kitts last week for the Liberty Forum conference, where I was a speaker. I also moderated a debate pitting Peter Schiff against Harry Dent on the inflation-deflation question.

Things got really hot. There was some yelling, and at one point, Harry stood up and tossed his mic in frustration. I thought they might go at it.

I want to tell you about this debate…

Peter Schiff is the chief strategist at the brokerage firm Euro Pacific. He has a radio show and has written some books. He's probably most known as calling for a collapse in the dollar and being generally bearish on the U.S. economy.

Harry Dent is also a well-known financial commentator. He writes a newsletter and is author of several books. He's probably most famous for his predictions based on demographics. He's also a vocal deflationist.

Inflation here means generally rising prices. Deflation means prices are generally falling. There are other consequences associated with each. For example, Peter believes interest rates will rise. Harry thinks they will fall. Peter thinks the dollar will lose value, Harry thinks not.

Peter's argument essentially was that the Fed is printing a lot of money and would continue to do so. Hence, inflation.

Harry's argument was that the debt deflation dynamics were the more powerful force. The economy has to delever, and as debts are repaid or written off, that process destroys money, more than offsetting the printing press.

They touched on a lot of other things in the course of the debate — past hyperinflations, China's role and more.

The debate started out calmly enough, but after about 20 minutes, they really starting going at it.

Harry won the debate, in my view. He had a good command of the facts and presented them well. I had also watched the presentations of both before the debate. Harry had marshaled an impressive array of evidence and made a good argument.

My respect for Harry went up. For whatever reason, I had thought of him as a bit of a quack, but he has done a lot of good work on this stuff.

Before 2008, I was solidly in the inflationist camp. But think about what's happened since 2008. If I told you back then that the Fed's balance sheet would balloon fivefold — creating lots of money — what would you have guessed the world would look like in 2013?

Wouldn't you be surprised to see the 10-year Treasury note pay just 2.8%? Wouldn't you be surprised to find gold languishing at $1,235 an ounce? The inflationist view had interest rates and gold higher — not lower.

So something is clearly not right with the "Fed's printing money and we're going to have inflation" argument. At some point, you have to re-evaluate the way you look at the world. Or you just sit content to be wrong. In financial markets, that can be costly.

In this light, I appreciated Harry's efforts, as his framework was the more challenging one to believe, but it has unquestionably been a better predictor of what's happened post-2008.

Even in the course of this debate, though, it struck me how many assumptions get passed off as givens.

For example: Commodities will protect you in times of high inflation.

Well, they don't have a history of doing that.

As James Montier of GMO points out in his most recent research note:

"Commodities are often seen as an inflation hedge; however, this is almost entirely due to the experience of the 1970s and the creation of OPEC, and the domination of energy in the generally used commodity indexes. If you had held the 'wrong' commodities, their inflation hedging performance would have looked very different (witness copper and grain)."

Here is the chart:

Copper and Corn Prices vs. Oil Prices, 1970-1982

So during the highly inflationary 1970s, oil was a great investment, but copper and corn were terrible. Commodities generally have lost value over the last century at the rate of almost 2% annually, according to GMO. Yet I see it repeated again and again by various advisers telling their clients/readers to own commodities to protect against inflation.

The same is true of gold.

Here is Montier again:

"Gold is often held up as an inflation hedge. However, the data provide a challenge to this view. [The next chart] shows the decade-by-decade average inflation rate, and the real return to holding gold over the same decade. It doesn't make pretty viewing for those who believe gold is an inflation hedge. That perception is down to one decade (the 1970s) when it held that inflation and gold were positively correlated. The rest of the time there isn't a good relationship between gold and inflation."

And here is the chart:

Gold's Record During Inflation

Yet people repeat — on faith, I guess — that gold will protect them during inflation. The record of gold on this front is spotty. It might. It might not.

Montier's paper, by the way, concludes that there aren't any good inflation hedges in the short term. But over the long term, stocks and real estate are good inflation hedges. (He says the best is TIPS — Treasury inflation-protected securities.) In fact, Montier shows that even in countries that have suffered high inflation (or even hyperinflation) in the 20th century — such as Germany and Italy — stocks still delivered positive real returns. And real estate value correlates with replacement costs, which rise during inflationary times.

After the debate, I sat on a panel with several other speakers. Asked if we'd have inflation or deflation, my first answer was an honest one: "I don't know." Forced to guess, I think we have deflation first, inflation later.

In general, the long-term way to bet is that the U.S. dollar in your pocket will buy less tomorrow than today.

Even Harry's own presentation had a chart that makes it hard to argue any other way:

The Value of the U.S. Dollar, 1900-2010

It is true the dollar can do something different for years at a time. (I mean, look at the 1930s.) But as a long-term investor, I'd rather own businesses or real estate than cash. Then again, I'd rather own cash-spinning businesses and real estate than commodities or gold.

Whatever you do, though, don't let an old assumption pass uncontested. If you think there's going to be inflation, you could at least be in the right things. And keep an open mind as to what may happen in 2014. The only certain thing about investing is that there are no certainties. That was my main takeaway from the fiery debate in St. Kitts.

Sincerely,

Chris Mayer
for The Daily Reckoning

P.S. "I buy on the assumption," Warren Buffett once said, "that they could close the market the next day and not reopen it for five years." These days, you never know what's down the road. That's exactly why I've created one simple self-sustaining model portfolio to pull in impressive gains. The less you mess with it… the better. Some may think it's being "lazy"… or even "too boring." Even so, they can't deny one thing: It works. And in yesterday’s Daily Resource Hunter, I gave readers a chance to check it out for themselves. Just one little perk of being a member of the FREE Daily Resource Hunter. Don’t miss another issue. Sign up for FREE, right here.

This post originally appeared at Daily Resource Hunter.

Gold Price "Faces Critical Week" as Fed Taper, US Budget Deal "Erode Gold Bugs' Faith"

Posted: 13 Dec 2013 05:41 AM PST

GOLD PRICE gains of 3.1% mid-week were finally erased this morning in London, with gold priced in Dollars trading flat from last Friday at $1228 per ounce after what one analyst calls "a tumultuous few days."
 
Stockmarkets ticked higher but London's FTSE100 headed for a 1.5% drop on the week.
 
Silver tracked the gold price, also erasing its mid-week gain of 5.0% to trade back at $19.55 per ounce.
 
"Given the magnitude" of this week's spike and retreat in the gold price, says brokerage and trading house INTL FCStone, "we think that gold now has a good chance of retesting its 2013 lows before the year is out.
 
"[Gold] may even have a shot of breaking it."
 
"Next week will be a critical time for the precious metal, and the beleaguered gold bugs still keeping the faith," says the note. Because the US Federal Reserve will announce its final policy vote of 2013 next Wednesday.
 
The Fed may start to taper its $85 billion per month of quantitative easing "in the near future," says Commerzbank in Frankfurt, pointing to this week's strong US retail sales data and the federal budget deal between Republican and Democrat politicians – "possibly as early as next week."
 
After the debt ceiling shutdown of October, "A smooth outcome in Washington poses several challenges for gold," reckons UBS analyst Joni Teves, forecasting a stronger Dollar, better economic growth and earlier tapering by the Fed.
 
"Lower gold after the taper, but a collapse is not likely," reckons Bart Melek, strategist at TD Securities.
 
The gold price "should firm due to the Fed's zero-bound [interest rate] policy," he writes. [Because] this should reduce real yield increases and keep the opportunity cost [of owning gold, and so not receiving interest or dividend payments] from rising too sharply."
 
Reviewing 2013 overall, "The biggest downward pressure on gold this year," says the commodity team at French investment and bullion bank Natixis, "came from talk about Fed tapering and the improving US economy."
 
Furthermore, "Many of the key pillars which had previously supported the gold price began to erode" this year it says, pointing to lower central-bank demand, investment outflows from gold ETF trust funds, and the block on Indian demand due to government anti-import rules.
 
Rising mining costs, however, "will ultimately put a floor under gold prices at somewhere around $1150 per ounce."
 
The gold price bull market "ended in 2011/12," said bullion, retail and investment bank HSBC's Charlie Morris, head of absolute return at the Global Asset Management division, to CNBC yesterday.
 
"There was a very clear top, and we're now in a very clear bear market. We continue to believe that gold is going down."
 
The last 5 bear markets in gold, says Morris, have cut price by 48%. "That takes us down to $950 or $1000 level."
  • Reddit
  • Facebook
  • Twitter
  • Google
  • Yahoo
  • LinkedIn
  • Digg
  • StumbleUpon
  • Technorati
  • del.icio.us

Gold Price "Faces Critical Week" as Fed Taper, US Budget Deal "Erode Gold Bugs' Faith"

Posted: 13 Dec 2013 05:41 AM PST

GOLD PRICE gains of 3.1% mid-week were finally erased this morning in London, with gold priced in Dollars trading flat from last Friday at $1228 per ounce after what one analyst calls "a tumultuous few days."
 
Stockmarkets ticked higher but London's FTSE100 headed for a 1.5% drop on the week.
 
Silver tracked the gold price, also erasing its mid-week gain of 5.0% to trade back at $19.55 per ounce.
 
"Given the magnitude" of this week's spike and retreat in the gold price, says brokerage and trading house INTL FCStone, "we think that gold now has a good chance of retesting its 2013 lows before the year is out.
 
"[Gold] may even have a shot of breaking it."
 
"Next week will be a critical time for the precious metal, and the beleaguered gold bugs still keeping the faith," says the note. Because the US Federal Reserve will announce its final policy vote of 2013 next Wednesday.
 
The Fed may start to taper its $85 billion per month of quantitative easing "in the near future," says Commerzbank in Frankfurt, pointing to this week's strong US retail sales data and the federal budget deal between Republican and Democrat politicians – "possibly as early as next week."
 
After the debt ceiling shutdown of October, "A smooth outcome in Washington poses several challenges for gold," reckons UBS analyst Joni Teves, forecasting a stronger Dollar, better economic growth and earlier tapering by the Fed.
 
"Lower gold after the taper, but a collapse is not likely," reckons Bart Melek, strategist at TD Securities.
 
The gold price "should firm due to the Fed's zero-bound [interest rate] policy," he writes. [Because] this should reduce real yield increases and keep the opportunity cost [of owning gold, and so not receiving interest or dividend payments] from rising too sharply."
 
Reviewing 2013 overall, "The biggest downward pressure on gold this year," says the commodity team at French investment and bullion bank Natixis, "came from talk about Fed tapering and the improving US economy."
 
Furthermore, "Many of the key pillars which had previously supported the gold price began to erode" this year it says, pointing to lower central-bank demand, investment outflows from gold ETF trust funds, and the block on Indian demand due to government anti-import rules.
 
Rising mining costs, however, "will ultimately put a floor under gold prices at somewhere around $1150 per ounce."
 
The gold price bull market "ended in 2011/12," said bullion, retail and investment bank HSBC's Charlie Morris, head of absolute return at the Global Asset Management division, to CNBC yesterday.
 
"There was a very clear top, and we're now in a very clear bear market. We continue to believe that gold is going down."
 
The last 5 bear markets in gold, says Morris, have cut price by 48%. "That takes us down to $950 or $1000 level."
  • Reddit
  • Facebook
  • Twitter
  • Google
  • Yahoo
  • LinkedIn
  • Digg
  • StumbleUpon
  • Technorati
  • del.icio.us

Gold Price "Faces Critical Week" as Fed Taper, US Budget Deal "Erode Gold Bugs' Faith"

Posted: 13 Dec 2013 05:41 AM PST

GOLD PRICE gains of 3.1% mid-week were finally erased this morning in London, with gold priced in Dollars trading flat from last Friday at $1228 per ounce after what one analyst calls "a tumultuous few days."
 
Stockmarkets ticked higher but London's FTSE100 headed for a 1.5% drop on the week.
 
Silver tracked the gold price, also erasing its mid-week gain of 5.0% to trade back at $19.55 per ounce.
 
"Given the magnitude" of this week's spike and retreat in the gold price, says brokerage and trading house INTL FCStone, "we think that gold now has a good chance of retesting its 2013 lows before the year is out.
 
"[Gold] may even have a shot of breaking it."
 
"Next week will be a critical time for the precious metal, and the beleaguered gold bugs still keeping the faith," says the note. Because the US Federal Reserve will announce its final policy vote of 2013 next Wednesday.
 
The Fed may start to taper its $85 billion per month of quantitative easing "in the near future," says Commerzbank in Frankfurt, pointing to this week's strong US retail sales data and the federal budget deal between Republican and Democrat politicians – "possibly as early as next week."
 
After the debt ceiling shutdown of October, "A smooth outcome in Washington poses several challenges for gold," reckons UBS analyst Joni Teves, forecasting a stronger Dollar, better economic growth and earlier tapering by the Fed.
 
"Lower gold after the taper, but a collapse is not likely," reckons Bart Melek, strategist at TD Securities.
 
The gold price "should firm due to the Fed's zero-bound [interest rate] policy," he writes. [Because] this should reduce real yield increases and keep the opportunity cost [of owning gold, and so not receiving interest or dividend payments] from rising too sharply."
 
Reviewing 2013 overall, "The biggest downward pressure on gold this year," says the commodity team at French investment and bullion bank Natixis, "came from talk about Fed tapering and the improving US economy."
 
Furthermore, "Many of the key pillars which had previously supported the gold price began to erode" this year it says, pointing to lower central-bank demand, investment outflows from gold ETF trust funds, and the block on Indian demand due to government anti-import rules.
 
Rising mining costs, however, "will ultimately put a floor under gold prices at somewhere around $1150 per ounce."
 
The gold price bull market "ended in 2011/12," said bullion, retail and investment bank HSBC's Charlie Morris, head of absolute return at the Global Asset Management division, to CNBC yesterday.
 
"There was a very clear top, and we're now in a very clear bear market. We continue to believe that gold is going down."
 
The last 5 bear markets in gold, says Morris, have cut price by 48%. "That takes us down to $950 or $1000 level."

Gold Price Could Retest 1180 June Low

Posted: 13 Dec 2013 05:26 AM PST

Gold reversed sharply to the downside at the start of September, through the rising trend line of a corrective channel. As we know that's an important signal for a change in trend, which means that bearish price action is now back in view that could accelerate to the downside soon if we consider recent break of 1251 swing low that confirms a completed wave 2 and wave 3 underway to the lows.

Disaster Insurance Ahead of the U.S. Dollar Collapse

Posted: 13 Dec 2013 05:19 AM PST

Most people simply cannot conceive of a US dollar hyperinflation any more than a current resident of San Francisco could imagine a 1906 or 1989 earthquake. Many simply choose to not dwell on these potentialities, often rationalizing them against other existential if not abstract inevitabilities. Dollar Confidence and Money Velocity Money velocity can be defined simply as GDP divided by money supply.

China and the Great Precious Metals Migration

Posted: 13 Dec 2013 05:12 AM PST

The desire of gold is not for gold. It is for the means of freedom and benefit. ~ Ralph Waldo Emerson The century-old fiat experiment is playing out its final stages. With instability rising, the massive shift in wealth is accelerating to the East. Precious metals are one vehicle leading the way.
at

No comments:

Post a Comment

Subscribe to: Post Comments (Atom)