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Thursday, November 14, 2013

Gold World News Flash

Gold World News Flash


Euro – Germany – Trade

Posted: 13 Nov 2013 06:00 PM PST

from Armstrong Economics:

QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong, it was great to have you here in Europe. You mentioned before that Germany needs the euro to maintain its trade surplus with Europe. There seems to be a rising tide that is starting to recognize that, especially here in Greece. Is this the seeds of the collapse of the euro?

ANSWER: There is little doubt that Germany's greatest benefit from the euro is to be able to sell its products to all of Europe without currency wars. Germany is the core economy of Europe and the strength behind the euro. However, it will defend its trades surplus for if that fails, there ia zero reason to support the Euro for the capital will flow out of Germany not in. The core European nation's export strength gives a false sense of security to the Euro for on a collective basis, it is merely a redistribution of wealth and income within Europe if you take the Marxist/Socialist view, which will no doubt become a popular viewpoint in Europe.

Read More @ ArmstrongEconomics.org

The Federal Reserve's Centennial Birthday - The 100 Years' War Against Gold

Posted: 13 Nov 2013 05:53 PM PST

As anyone who has read my recent book, $10,000 Gold: Why Gold's Inevitable Rise Is the Investor's Safe Haven knows , I am a firm believer in sound money, free markets and the negative impact of central banks. Read More...

"It Is High Time That Central Banking Is Recognized For The Disease It Is"

Posted: 13 Nov 2013 05:42 PM PST

Submitted by Pater Tenebrarum of Acting-man blog,

Hans-Werner Sinn On The ECB And TARGET-2

Winners and Losers

In a recent editorial at German newspaper Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung (FAZ), Hans-Werner Sinn, president of Germany's IFO Institute and a prominent critic of the ECB and the euro area bailouts, revisits the topic of the euro-systems payment imbalances that are expressed in TARGET-2 claims and liabilities. The reason why Sinn felt compelled to write this editorial is that another economist, Marcel Fratzscher of the DIW in Berlin (another economic research institute), recently asserted that 'Germany is the big winner' in the events surrounding the TARGET system.

The main reason why there is even a debate over the euro-system's payment procedures is in fact that Sinn pointed out two years ago that the system was abused as a 'stealth bailout' mechanism for the euro area periphery and that Germany was exposed to huge risks because of it.

This provoked angry reactions from courtier economists and even the Bundesbank, who tried in vain to put the genie back into the bottle by arguing that it all didn't matter. It was merely an accounting artifact, and no further implications were to be inferred. Naturally, even people who don't understand how exactly the system works were compelled to ask: if it 'doesn't matter', then why does the chart look like this?

 


 

TARGET-2

TARGET-2 imbalances in the euro-system – click to enlarge.

 


In view of this chart, which had begun to depict vast and growing imbalances precisely since the beginning of the crisis period, the argument that it 'didn't means anything' and entailed no risks for anyone just didn't sound very credible. People also wondered why a prominent economist like Sinn would risk his reputation by opposing this consensus view dispensed from on high.

 

What Was Financed?

To begin with, Sinn was perfectly correct. He has not once misrepresented the risks posed by the system. Curiously, even Fratzscher admits in his editorial that yes, it is indeed a stealth bailout. He argues however that the potential costs are outweighed by the benefits, since in his opinion, the imbalances mostly reflect 'capital flight by German investors from the periphery', which the TARGET system enabled. Moreover, he argues that it is a good thing that credit that was previously extended by private investors is now de facto extended by the central bank, as it keeps all sorts of companies in the periphery in business. These would have been cut off from credit otherwise.

Sinn counters that first of all, it cannot be determined with certainty just whose capital flight was financed. The TARGET balances themselves cannot tell us anything about that. Sinn points out, that 'in effect, the North's printing press was lent to the South' and notes that this fact – and the attendant risks for the holders of TARGET claims – is obviously no longer in contention. The only bone of contention is 'just what was financed with it'.

Sinn concedes that German capital flight was in part financed by the TARGET system, but notes that the DIW calculations (which are actually based on IFO's numbers) are wrong. For one thing, DIW confuses gross with net amounts, as there were flows in the opposite direction as well. In fact, from 2008 to 2012, Germany has altogether exported a net €170 billion in capital! Instead of €400 billion as assumed by DIW, Sinn contends that at most €200 billion were recalled by German investors from the periphery. And even so, argues Sinn, it was not the business of the central bank to protect German banks:

 

“[Capital flight] does not explain the build-up of Germany's TARGET claims, and even if it did, it wouldn't have been the ECB's job to protect German banks and financial institutions from losses. Such fiscal aid measures are the responsibility of finance ministers, and not the ECB board.”

 

Sinn then explains that TARGET was for the most part used as a kind of vendor financing system – Germany's export surplus was partly financed by the TARGET system, partly by Germany's private sector capital exports and partly by aid packages granted in the course of the bailout. In short, it is mainly Germany's trade surplus that is reflected in the BuBa's TARGET claims. He argues furthermore that there are a number of complex business structures at work, and the TARGET liabilities of the crisis countries cannot be fully explained by the balance of payment deficits of these countries. He notes that in some countries like Portugal and Greece, TARGET liabilities and current account deficits are very closely linked, while in others like Spain and Italy, capital flight is the main factor. However, it is not necessarily capital flight to Germany. Other foreign investors such as British investors were enabled to recall their investments due to the TARGET mechanism as well (for instance, there may be a circular flow such as this one: UK investors remove capital from the EU periphery, then lend money to US buyers of cars, who in turn use the funds to import cars from Germany).

 

Perpetuating Imbalances and Robbing Savers

Sinn then points out that the ECB, via its lowering of credit rating standards for  central bank refinancing, enabled the national central banks in the periphery to undercut capital markets. Much higher interest rates were demanded in the capital markets, reflecting the higher risks in the crisis countries.

The conditions offered by the ECB in terms of refinancing were such that banks in the still healthy countries could no longer compete with it. In short, the ECB has driven away private sector competition in the capital markets of the periphery. This has contributed to the further fragmentation of European capital markets, since without the lure of higher interest rates, private investors have no good reason to take the risk of investing in the crisis countries. Higher interest rates would however have forced these countries to save more and enact sweeping structural reforms of their labor markets and government finances, which would ultimately have made them more competitive and lowered their ingrained balance of payment deficits. Sinn points out that most of the crisis countries are still far from having regained competitiveness, which can be largely deemed an unintended consequence of the ECB's interventions.

Since private capital markets have been undercut via the printing press, Germany's banks and insurers are no longer able to earn interest rates that adequately reflect risk. Insurers have been forced to recall the return guarantees that have traditionally extended to their policyholders.

Sinn stresses that the advantages accruing to German debtors via low interest rates must be seen in the context of the fact that Germany is actually a net creditor to the world, not a debtor. Creditors are losing out when interest rates are artificially lowered. It is as though “the ECB were acting as a purchasing agent of German savings, which it then services and distributes to the crisis countries at whatever conditions it deems appropriate”. Sinn estimates that the crisis countries have enjoyed €205 billion in interest savings due to the ECB's interventions, interest that exporters of capital such as Germany would otherwise have earned.

Sinn concludes that “it is not entirely wrong in this context to talk about the expropriation of German savers by means of low interest competition via the printing press.”

Indeed, central banks are ultimately robbing savers everywhere these days. The prudent are forced to pay for the mistakes of those who have been irresponsible and have squandered their capital.

 

Are Lower TAREGT Imbalances A Sign of Improvement?

Over the past few years, investors have rearranged their portfolios, causing among other things a construction boom in Germany. Meanwhile, the EU and the ECB have organized a giant flow of public funds into the crisis countries to replace private capital flows. All of this will only perpetuate the misallocation of saved capital. Capital will continue to be consumed.

Sinn then points out that Germany and other Northern countries have been regularly outvoted at the ECB board since May of 2010. In his opinion, the ECB board's actions are in conflict with article 125 of the EU treaty, as they have created a giant volume of public credit and public guarantees in favor of the Southern countries, which could eventually get the ECB itself into trouble. In a worst case scenario, the write-offs may well exceed the ECB's capital of €500 billion.

Even though the central bank could continue to function even if its capital base were  wiped out, it would be a devastating signal to the capital markets if part or all of its capital were lost. We agree with this assessment, for one thing because write-offs of a part of a central bank's assets mean that its flexibility with regard to lowering the extant money supply is curtailed. Secondly, in the minds of investors and users of the euro, it would look as though some of the 'backing' of the central bank's liabilities was gone. Although fiat money is irredeemable anyway, this would likely have a psychological impact that could severely damage the euro.

The most interesting part of Sinn's editorial however concerns the recent decline in the TAREGT-2 imbalances (see the chart above). This will probably be regarded as controversial and we expect it will ignite further debate. Sinn writes:

 

“If one adds up the purchases of government bonds by the central banks of the still healthy countries in the euro area and the TARGET credits in favor of the six crisis countries (Greece, Ireland, Portugal, Spain, Italy and Cyprus) for which the ECB board is responsible and deducts the claims of the crisis countries arising from a slightly under-proportional issuance of banknotes, then one gets a total of € 747 billion in ECB financed rescue loans. That is about two times the sum of the already granted fiscal rescue measures of the community of € 385 billion, for which the national parliaments are responsible.

 

The loans of the community are economically indistinguishable from ECB credit, but they arrived on the scene much later and are basically follow-on loans designed to relieve the ECB. In view of the advance payments made by the ECB, parliaments are essentially forced to push through a fiscal rescue architecture in the form of the European Stability Mechanism ESM and other measures, since if they were to deny the ECB such follow-up financing, the entire euro-system may well collapse. The strong insistence on a recapitalization of banks with ESM funds, which ECB president Draghi has recently expressed in a letter to the EU commission, is also explained by his panic-like fear of the ECB's own losses.

 

Since the TARGET liabilities of the crisis countries have been a great deal higher at one point than the € 681 billion remaining today, some observers feel that there is no longer cause for alarm. They have perhaps not yet understood that the fiscal rescue loans extended by the community replace the TARGET liabilities of the crisis countries directly and fully. This is an automatic process resulting from the TARGET system's very nature. Without the fiscal rescue measures on the part of the community, the TARGET liabilities of the crisis countries would ceteris paribus not be at € 681 billion today, but at € 1,066 billion.

 

In the construction of the rescue architecture, Europe's parliaments are confronted with decisions without alternatives, which have been prepared years ago already by the ECB board. They have been degraded to rubber-stamping agents. To me it is questionable whether the fiscal regional policy that has been decided behind closed doors by the ECB and for which there are no parallels in the US Federal Reserve system, is still compatible with the rules of parliamentary democracy and the German constitution”

 

Obviously, Sinn isn't prepared to shut up and let them get away with this unchallenged.

 

Conclusion:

The notion that the euro area crisis is over has recently been heavily propagated  by EU politicians and the mainstream media. However, it is way too early for such victory laps. The fat lady is still waiting in the wings.

Hans-Werner Sinn is perfectly correct in pointing out that the ECB's attempts to restore the 'monetary policy transmission mechanism' by suppressing interest rates in the periphery is going to perpetuate capital malinvestment and delay the necessary reforms. He is also correct when he states that these interventions have actually scared private capital away, as investors require adequate compensation for the risks they are taking. Meanwhile, savers are ultimately paying for this ongoing waste of scarce capital.

It is high time that central banking is recognized for the disease it is. Without central banks aiding and abetting credit expansion, this situation would never have arisen. Even a free banking system practicing fractional reserve banking could not possibly have created such a gigantic boom-bust scenario. Money needs to be fully privatized – the State cannot be trusted with it.

NY Fed Compares The Current Reach-For-Yield To South Sea Bubble Of 1720

Posted: 13 Nov 2013 05:08 PM PST

When a tin-foil-hat-wearing digital dickweed points to record volumes of cov-lite loans, insatiable demand for Ugandan bonds, and the disconcerting disconnect between record-high median leverage and almost-record-low credit spreads, the mainstream can scoff at their obsessions... but when the NY Fed - once again - highlights the potential froth in credit markets and compares it to the South Sea Bubble of 1720... maybe it's time to get the hint...

 

Via The NY Fed Liberty Street Economics blog,

In 1720, the South Sea Company offered to pay the British government for the right to buy the national debt from debtholders in exchange for shares backed by dividends to be paid from the company's debt holdings and South Sea trade profits. The Bank of England countered the proposal and the two then competed for the right to buy the debt, with South Sea ultimately winning through bribes to the government. Later that year, the government moved to divert more capital to South Sea shares by hampering investment opportunities for rival companies in what became known as the Bubble Act, and public confidence was shaken. In this edition of the Crisis Chronicles, we explore the rise and fall of the South Sea Company and offer a cautionary look at the current reach for yield.

A Rogue's Guide to Repackaging Debt: Start with Insider Trading . . .
Two key events predate the South Sea Bubble. First, around 1710, the Sword Blade Bank offered to exchange unsecured government debt issued by army paymasters for Sword Blade shares. But it did so only after having secretly amassed large holdings of the debt, which traded at a deep discount given investor uncertainty that Britain could pay its debts. Knowing the price of the debt would rise with the announcement of the debt-to-shares exchange, the Sword Blade Bank made a significant profit on its debt holdings in what would today be called insider trading.

The second key event was the formation of the South Sea Company in 1711, for the purpose of rivaling the East India Company in trade. But a unique feature included in the formation of the company was the exchange of shares for government debt, no doubt influenced by the prior Sword Blade Bank deal; five of the directors of the South Sea Company were from the Sword Blade Bank. By 1713, the peace treaty at Utrecht brought an end to war with Spain, but the British gained only limited access to trading stations in the Americas. Consequently, the trading operations never proved profitable and the South Sea Company became a financial enterprise by default. In 1715, and then again in 1719, the South Sea Company was allowed to convert additional government debt into shares. In April 1720, South Sea won approval to buy the remaining government debt and to issue stock in exchange. The once-burdensome debt had been cleverly repackaged into a valuable commodity.

Then Pay Bribes . . .
Investors in South Sea shares now anticipated both a 5 percent annual dividend payment in addition to the hope of lucrative profits from trade with the Americas. But on the announcement of approval to buy the remaining government debt on April 7, 1720, the South Sea share price fell from £310 to £290 overnight. South Sea directors were eager to pump up the stock price and spread rumors of even greater riches to be earned from South Sea trade. Later that month, South Sea offered to new investors its First Money Subscription of £2 million in stock at £300 a share with 20 percent down and the remaining payments to be made every two months. So successful was the first offer that a Second Money Subscription followed later that same April with equally generous terms that allowed participants to borrow up to £3,000 each. Nearly 200 new ventures were launched that year under similar schemes, increasing the competition for investor capital. In the short term, shares soared across most companies. But South Sea stock sale proceeds were needed to pay dividends and bribes to the government for favorable treatment, as well as to buy its own shares to support its stock price. Consequently, a Third Money Subscription was launched later that year with even more generous terms at just 10 percent down with installment payments over four years and the second payment not due for a year.

. . . And Ban Rivals
Later that summer, the government moved to ban the new ventures—South Sea's rivals for investor capital—in passing the "so-called" Bubble Act, which jolted public confidence. Companies impacted by the ban saw their stock prices plummet and leveraged investors were forced to sell South Sea shares to pay off debts, which put downward pressure on South Sea's stock price as well. To prop up the company, South Sea launched the Fourth Money Subscription in August with a promise of a 30 percent year-end dividend and an annual dividend of 50 percent for ten years. But the market didn't view the offer as credible and the South Sea share price continued to fall through mid-September. Liquidity constraints in London were further compounded by the concurrent Mississippi Bubble and bust in Paris, which we'll cover in our next post. The South Sea Company was forced to turn to the Bank of England for help with the Bank ultimately agreeing to support the company but not its banker, the Sword Blade Bank.

Recall from our last post on the "not so great" re-coinage of 1696 that after the re-coinage, silver continued to flow out of Britain to Amsterdam, where bankers and merchants exchanged the silver coin in the commodity markets, issuing promissory notes in return. The promissory notes in effect served as a form of paper currency and paved the way for banknotes to circulate widely in Britain. So when panicked depositors flocked to exchange banknotes for gold coin from the Sword Blade Bank (the South Sea Company's bank), the bank was unable to meet demand and closed its doors on September 24. The panic turned to contagion and spread to other banks, many of which also failed.

The Return of Repackaged Debt
As we'll see in upcoming posts, financial innovation—in this case the repackaging of debt—is a recurring theme in our review of historic crises. In this case, the South Sea Company structured the national debt in a way that was initially attractive to investors, but the scheme to finance the debt-for-equity swap ultimately proved to be noncredible and the market collapsed. Now fast-forward to 2013 and the five-year anniversary in September of Lehman Brothers' failure. As Fed Governor Jeremy Stein pointed out in a recent speech, a combination of factors such as financial innovation, regulation, and a change in the economic environment, can sometimes contribute to an overheating of credit markets. Asset-backed securitization and collateralized debt obligations have returned with a bang—or perhaps a boom—and are on pace to exceed pre-crisis levels, perhaps fueled by investors' reach for yield. And remember from our introduction to the Crisis Chronicles series that "lessons learned often last only a lifetime and are easily forgotten." So, will the current reach for yield lead to ever more complex, leveraged investments and the next credit market bubble? Or will the lessons from the Great Recession last at least a lifetime?

Man Who Predicted Gold Smash Tells Investors What’s Next

Posted: 13 Nov 2013 05:00 PM PST

from KingWorldNews:

Right now I am focused on the manipulation that is ongoing. As you know, I had warned KWN readers around the world that the powers that be were in fact going to conduct one more downside attack. We are in the midst of that attack right now. We have now gone past levels that most people would have expected.

We are attempting to retest the lows made in the last couple of weeks, but a lot of gold is getting lost by the West in the process.

The thing for investors to focus on here is the battle between paper and physical. As I said, a lot of physical gold is getting lost in the prosecution of this down-move.

William Kaye continues @ KingWorldNews.com

Platinum: Today's 'Rich Man's Gold' Palladium: Tomorrow's?

Posted: 13 Nov 2013 04:27 PM PST

The Platinum Group Metals (PGMs) are a family comprised of 6 metals - platinum, palladium rhodium, iridium, osmium and ruthenium. But for our purpose today (and for most investors), we are only interested in the first two - platinum and palladium. Read More...

Life Assurance: “The Payoff Is You Get To Live”

Posted: 13 Nov 2013 04:20 PM PST

by Mac Slavo, SHTFPlan:

It's clear that the United States of America is on a trajectory that will lead to ruin, destruction, poverty and even war.

But the following interview with research author Steve Quayle and the team at Full Spectrum Survival paints a picture unlike anything you have ever heard before.

Covering topics that include everything from economic collapse, biological outbreaks, cyber attacks, martial law and how to develop life assurance plans to survive and thrive when most others won't, Steve Quayle highlights the numerous possibilities for what may well be coming down the pike.

It's much more serious than most can even imagine.

Read More @ SHTFPlan.com

Obama’s Secret Treaty Which Will Merge America More Deeply Into The Emerging One World Economic System

Posted: 13 Nov 2013 04:16 PM PST

by Michael Snyder, Economic Collapse Blog:

Did you know that the Obama administration is negotiating a super secret “trade agreement” that is so sensitive that he isn’t even allowing members of Congress to see it?  The Trans-Pacific Partnership is being called the “NAFTA of the Pacific” and “NAFTA on steroids”, but the truth is that it is so much more than just a trade agreement.  This treaty has 29 chapters, but only 5 of them have to do with trade.  Most Americans don’t realize this, but this treaty will fundamentally change our laws regarding Internet freedom, health care, the trading of derivatives, copyright issues, food safety, environmental standards, civil liberties and so much more. 

It will also merge the United States far more deeply into the emerging one world economic system.  Initially, twelve nations will be a party to this treaty including the United States, Mexico, Canada, Japan, Australia, Brunei, Chile, Malaysia, New Zealand, Peru, Singapore and Vietnam.  Together, those nations represent approximately 40 percent of global GDP.  It is hoped that additional nations such as the Philippines, Thailand and Colombia will join the treaty later on.

Read More @ EconomicCollapseBlog.com

Something Is Very Wrong With This Picture

Posted: 13 Nov 2013 04:09 PM PST

Just because very few actually understood the severity of the Cisco earnings guidance, in which the company forecast an 8-10% drop (let's call it 9%) in quarterly revenues when Wall Street was expecting a 4% increase, we have compiled and presented in chart form the historical and projected quarterly revenue data for CSCO to show today's preannouncement in all its gruesome context.

A few points:

  • The current quarter, in which revenues missed expectations of $12.4 billion by $300 million, while bad, was still a year-over-year increase of 1.8%.
  • It is the next quarter that is a true stunner because while Goldman Sachs (which has the company at a Conviction Buy rating with a $30 price target) was expecting a print of $12.9 billion, taking the midline of CSCO's guide-down, Cisco now expects to make a paltry $11 billion, the lowest amount since early 2011, which would make the next quarter, ending January 2014, the biggest miss to expectations in company history.
  • In sequential terms, the drop in revenue next quarter would amount to just over $1 billion, a topline crash second only to the $1.2 billion sequential collapse in the quarter when Lehman filed and the modern financial system as we know it nearly ended.
  • There is simply no way that the company will be able to grow into its current projected revenue growth range as this quarter will mean a dramatic change to the topline trendline

And while another massive buyback is just what the adjusted EPS doctor ordered, should CSCO experience just one more quarter such as the forecast, things will get very ugly not just for revenue, which it is quite obvious is no longer growing anywhere, but for the bottom line.

In short: while the markets may not represent it, because the markets stopped reflecting reality some time in 2009, something is suddenly seriously broken not only with the global demand picture, but the entire world economy as well.

 

GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis

Posted: 13 Nov 2013 04:09 PM PST

A new low for Silver in the last 24 hours changes the situation. Yesterday's alternate wave count for Silver was confirmed, and so I expect Gold should follow. I am swapping the main and alternate wave counts for Gold over today. Read More...

The Gold Price is Up $16 in the Aftermarket

Posted: 13 Nov 2013 04:08 PM PST

Gold Price Close Today : 1268.30
Change : -9.90 or -0.77%

Silver Price Close Today : 20.432
Change : -0.336 or -1.62%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 62.074
Change : 0.528 or 0.86%

Silver Gold Ratio Today : 0.01611
Change : -0.000138 or -0.85%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1430.20
Change : 7.20 or 0.51%

Palladium Price Close Today : 735.00
Change : -12.20 or -1.63%

S&P 500 : 1,782.00
Change : 14.31 or 0.81%

Dow In GOLD$ : $257.87
Change : $ 3.14 or 1.23%

Dow in GOLD oz : 12.475
Change : 0.152 or 1.23%

Dow in SILVER oz : 774.36
Change : 15.94 or 2.10%

Dow Industrial : 15,821.63
Change : 70.96 or 0.45%

US Dollar Index : 80.972
Change : -0.164 or -0.20%

That's odd -- silver and GOLD PRICES are up strongly (+28 cents and + $16) in the aftermarket. At Comex close the GOLD PRICE had lost $2.80 to $1,268.30. The SILVER PRICE had yielded 33.6 cents to 2043.2c.

A word about these "closes." Comex opens about 8:30 Eastern time and closes at 1:30 Eastern. Once upon a time it was the only daytime game in the US, but now gold is a 24-hour around the globe market. After Comex closes the electronic Globex market opens in the US, so the Comex close is merely a snapshot, and not always a well-focused snapshot at that.

Here in the aftermarket the gold price has risen to $1,283.40 and silver to 2070c. For silver that roughly, for gold more than, makes up yesterday's losses. I mention this only because both are tap-dancing around that uptrend line from June. That hints they might be catching a grip here. Tomorrow will tell.

Both the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P500 made new all-time highs today, up 70.96 to 15,821.63 (+0.45%) and up 14.31 (0.81%) to 1,782. I reckon they are a perpetchul mo-shun mo-sheen run on the vapors of money creation.

Here's a little conundrum I'm puzzling over. Dow in Gold actually fell today if you look at the End Of Day price. Ended down 0.8% at 12.34, against 12.447 yesterday and 12.514 at the June low. RSI is overbought.

More conundrum: while the Dow in Gold floats near its June high, the Dow in Silver doesn't. It rose today 0.89% to 768.04 oz, against an 816.77 oz June high. If both indicators wanted to double top, this would be the place to do it.

Over the last three days the Gold:Silver Ratio has moved from 60.217 to 62.074, a breakout over resistance and a discouraging sign for silver and gold. When both metals are rallying, that ratio ought to trend down.

Tomorrow Janet Yellen, Obama's nominee to succeed Ben Bernanke as Head Criminal at the Federal Reserve, talks to the senate confirmation committee. A Reuters news report said that the dollar fell "on expectations that [Yellen's] remarks will underscore the Fed's accommodative posture." Great, that's logical, but why didn't that happen after the last FOMC meeting when the Head Goofs said they would continue "accommodating"? Printing $85 bn in new money every month and calling it "accommodating" is like calling adultery "snuggling." These people all warp the language because they don't want you to know what their words mean.

Dollar index fell 0.21% or 16.4 basis points to 80.972. Technically that doesn't signify much, since the dollar has been rallying sharply since late October and is due for a corrective rest. Now if it fell below the 50 DMA at 80.54, it might mean something.

Euro took advantage of dollar giddiness to advance 0.38% to $1.3487. Lo, once again, it signifieth nothing. Euro has now climbed to the 62 day moving average and filled chart gaps left behind when gravity took over last week. I might respect it over the 50 DMA ($1.3517), but not here. Come to think of it, it would have to rise nearly to $1.3600 before I respected it.

Yen rose 0.35% to 100.76 cents per Y100. Somebody remind me again why we look at this thing? Nothing ever happens. Clearly the Japanese Nice Government Men are controlling it tightly.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2013, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission. To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 18 ounces of silver. or 18 ounces of silver. US $ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.

The Gold Price is Up $16 in the Aftermarket

Posted: 13 Nov 2013 04:08 PM PST

Gold Price Close Today : 1268.30
Change : -9.90 or -0.77%

Silver Price Close Today : 20.432
Change : -0.336 or -1.62%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 62.074
Change : 0.528 or 0.86%

Silver Gold Ratio Today : 0.01611
Change : -0.000138 or -0.85%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1430.20
Change : 7.20 or 0.51%

Palladium Price Close Today : 735.00
Change : -12.20 or -1.63%

S&P 500 : 1,782.00
Change : 14.31 or 0.81%

Dow In GOLD$ : $257.87
Change : $ 3.14 or 1.23%

Dow in GOLD oz : 12.475
Change : 0.152 or 1.23%

Dow in SILVER oz : 774.36
Change : 15.94 or 2.10%

Dow Industrial : 15,821.63
Change : 70.96 or 0.45%

US Dollar Index : 80.972
Change : -0.164 or -0.20%

That's odd -- silver and GOLD PRICES are up strongly (+28 cents and + $16) in the aftermarket. At Comex close the GOLD PRICE had lost $2.80 to $1,268.30. The SILVER PRICE had yielded 33.6 cents to 2043.2c.

A word about these "closes." Comex opens about 8:30 Eastern time and closes at 1:30 Eastern. Once upon a time it was the only daytime game in the US, but now gold is a 24-hour around the globe market. After Comex closes the electronic Globex market opens in the US, so the Comex close is merely a snapshot, and not always a well-focused snapshot at that.

Here in the aftermarket the gold price has risen to $1,283.40 and silver to 2070c. For silver that roughly, for gold more than, makes up yesterday's losses. I mention this only because both are tap-dancing around that uptrend line from June. That hints they might be catching a grip here. Tomorrow will tell.

Both the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P500 made new all-time highs today, up 70.96 to 15,821.63 (+0.45%) and up 14.31 (0.81%) to 1,782. I reckon they are a perpetchul mo-shun mo-sheen run on the vapors of money creation.

Here's a little conundrum I'm puzzling over. Dow in Gold actually fell today if you look at the End Of Day price. Ended down 0.8% at 12.34, against 12.447 yesterday and 12.514 at the June low. RSI is overbought.

More conundrum: while the Dow in Gold floats near its June high, the Dow in Silver doesn't. It rose today 0.89% to 768.04 oz, against an 816.77 oz June high. If both indicators wanted to double top, this would be the place to do it.

Over the last three days the Gold:Silver Ratio has moved from 60.217 to 62.074, a breakout over resistance and a discouraging sign for silver and gold. When both metals are rallying, that ratio ought to trend down.

Tomorrow Janet Yellen, Obama's nominee to succeed Ben Bernanke as Head Criminal at the Federal Reserve, talks to the senate confirmation committee. A Reuters news report said that the dollar fell "on expectations that [Yellen's] remarks will underscore the Fed's accommodative posture." Great, that's logical, but why didn't that happen after the last FOMC meeting when the Head Goofs said they would continue "accommodating"? Printing $85 bn in new money every month and calling it "accommodating" is like calling adultery "snuggling." These people all warp the language because they don't want you to know what their words mean.

Dollar index fell 0.21% or 16.4 basis points to 80.972. Technically that doesn't signify much, since the dollar has been rallying sharply since late October and is due for a corrective rest. Now if it fell below the 50 DMA at 80.54, it might mean something.

Euro took advantage of dollar giddiness to advance 0.38% to $1.3487. Lo, once again, it signifieth nothing. Euro has now climbed to the 62 day moving average and filled chart gaps left behind when gravity took over last week. I might respect it over the 50 DMA ($1.3517), but not here. Come to think of it, it would have to rise nearly to $1.3600 before I respected it.

Yen rose 0.35% to 100.76 cents per Y100. Somebody remind me again why we look at this thing? Nothing ever happens. Clearly the Japanese Nice Government Men are controlling it tightly.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2013, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission. To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 18 ounces of silver. or 18 ounces of silver. US $ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.

Gold Trader: Gold Signaling “Manufactured” Crash Over Next 30-40 Trading Days

Posted: 13 Nov 2013 04:07 PM PST

by Tekoa Da Silva, Bull Market Thinking:

I had the chance yesterday to reconnect with technical gold trader Gary Savage, publisher of the Smart Money Tracker daily gold market commentary and trading service, which has outperformed most of the world's hedge funds in 2011 and 2012.

It was a powerful conversation as Gary indicated that gold is now signaling the increasing likelihood of another overnight sell-off event, similar to what was seen in late June, in which the price collapsed from $1400 oz. to just under $1200 oz.

Read More @ BullMarketThinking.com

Bitcoin Is Not Gold

Posted: 13 Nov 2013 04:03 PM PST

How to Invest Gold In Your Pension Plan – Part 3

Posted: 13 Nov 2013 04:00 PM PST

by Mark O'Byrne, Gold Core:

A Self-Directed IRA or 401(k) is governed by the same set of Internal Revenue Service (IRS) rules and regulations as a conventional retirement IRA, with the main exception being that conventional IRAs do not allow for diversification into precious metals because of the special circumstances related to ownership: precious metals require professional storage/vaulting, insurance and specialized custodial responsibilities.

The decision to apportion retirement savings into gold and other precious metals is being taken by an increasing number of US citizens who understand that the value of the US dollar is being silently eroded by inflation. Indeed, as we get older, the real rate of inflation is much higher as the key financial outgoings – health insurance, home heating and groceries – are much, much higher than the official rate of inflation.

Read More @ GoldCore.com

Click Here For Parts 1 & 2

Bernanke "Explains" 100 Years Of The Federal Reserve (And It's War On Gold?) - Live Webcast

Posted: 13 Nov 2013 03:54 PM PST

With Janet stealing the limelight, we really don't expect any market-moving fireworks from the lame-duck Bernanke's town hall presentation to US educators this evening. Discussing the Fed's 100-year history and his efforts to bring greater transparency to the central bank's actions, Bernanke will also take questions (which may well be much more interesting than the speech itself). But, to ensure some 'fair-and-balanced' coverage, we offer an alternate history of the Fed's 100-year war against gold (and economic common sense).

 

Bernanke's 100-Year History Of The Fed - Live Stream:



Live streaming video by Ustream

 

Nick Barisheff's alternate 100-Year History of the Fed's War Against Gold And Economic Common Sense...

Federal Reserve Centennial Anniversary_Executive Summary_Final_Formatted_12 11 13.pdf

The Silver Market in 2013

Posted: 13 Nov 2013 03:32 PM PST

The Real Asset Co

Gold and Silver Are in Long Term Uptrends

Posted: 13 Nov 2013 03:21 PM PST

By: GE Christenson The BIG Perspective: Examine the following "Point & Figure" chart from Ron Rosen. This type of chart plots price on the "y" axis while the "x" axis shows time but without uniform distance between years. The long term trend has been up since 1970 and 2001, while the intermediate trend has been [...]

Hugo Salinas Price: The siren song of the welfare state

Posted: 13 Nov 2013 03:15 PM PST

5:10p CT Wednesday, November 13, 2013

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

The world will return gold to the international monetary system in some way, Hugo Salinas Price writes this week, but probably only to shore up the authority of those in power as they drag the world farther along the road to "managed" economies and socialism, which doesn't work. Salinas Price, president of the Mexican Civic Association for Silver, headlines his commentary "The Siren Song of the Welfare State" and it's posted at the association's Internet site, Plata.com, here:

http://www.plata.com.mx/mplata/articulos/articlesFilt.asp?fiidarticulo=2...

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.



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Gold caught a nice late bid, setting a new high for the day at 1284.35. Silver remained soft, pushing the ratio back above 62.00.

Posted: 13 Nov 2013 02:52 PM PST

New Gold Vaults Are Housing The Massive Asian Inflows of Gold

Posted: 13 Nov 2013 02:37 PM PST

In the latest edition of Sprott’s Thoughts, strategist David Franklin explains how gold vaults is a booming business in Asia.Recent data show that significant amounts of physical gold have been liquidated from gold ETF’s (sitting in London and Swiss vaults), melted down mainly by Swiss refineries and sent to the East. Once arrived, the gold should get a home. Based on several events in the past couple of weeks, it appears that new Asian facilities will be housing the physical gold.

Franklin writes:

This week, Malca-Amit Global Ltd., a global powerhouse in vaulting and secure transportation, opened a private vault in Shanghai with storage capacity for 2,000 metric tonnes of gold. However, besides being one of the largest vaults in Asia, it has even greater strategic value. It is located in the Shanghai Free-Trade Zone, a "testing ground for new policies" that opened in late September. Identified as a reform hub for the 21st century, the sequestered area outside of Shanghai is an experimental zone for Chinese capitalism, in a similar category as Hong Kong. Joshua Rotbart, precious metals general manager at Malca-Amit stated that, "This place can be used as a trade hub basically, so foreign banks can trade with domestic banks within this facility, saving costs and time." Given the large quantities of gold being traded with China, a facility like the Malca-Amit Global vault provides enormous benefits to the banks trading gold in Asia.

The company has already opened vaults in several Asian trading locales and this latest facility increases its storage space significantly. Last September, the firm opened Hong Kong's largest gold-storage facility, located on the ground floor of a building within the international airport compound, with the capacity for 1,000 metric tonnes of gold. Special facilities were also opened for up to 200 tonnes of silver in Singapore that are already 30 percent booked. These investments in Shanghai's new free-trade zone, Singapore and Hong Kong reflect the shift in world bullion demand away from the U.S. and Europe toward Asia.

Even big banks are making use of the new vaults. Banks like ANZ, JPMorgan Chase & Co., UBS AG and Deutsche Bank AG are making use of a facility which was built in Singapore some years ago. The new facility is located at the Singapore FreePort, and houses significant stores of metal.

In additiona, the headquarters of Chase Manhattan bank (JP Morgan Chase), and its underground facilities with the world's largest bank vault, were sold to a Chinese conglomerate. The purchasers were an investment arm of China's biggest closely held industrial group; they paid a staggering $725 million for the facility. “The news that a Chinese company is to buy the largest commercial gold vault in the US is yet another reflection of China's enthusiasm for stockpiling gold.”

Vault space was limited around the world, last year as most bullion-dealing banks doubled their vaulting fees. These new facilities in Asia further reflect the enormous increase in the physical precious metals trade and a requirement for secure storage. With these new vaults located in Asia (or now owned by Asians) it would appear the massive amounts of gold being shipped East will not see the inside of a London or Swiss vault ever again.

U.S. Mint Silver Bullion Coin Sales Hit Record High

Posted: 13 Nov 2013 02:29 PM PST

As discussed in a previous post, sales of the American Eagle silver bullion coins were on track to post record sales volume in 2013.  It's now official - sales of U.S. Mint silver bullion coins surged past the old record set in 2011 and are track to hit a record high of 45 million ounces [...]

How Does The Collapse Of The Monetary System Look Like?

Posted: 13 Nov 2013 02:23 PM PST

In a video interview on RT, Jim Rickards explains his view on the coming collapse of the international monetary system. He also argues why he does not expect any tapering. Parts of his views are based on his new book: “The death of money.”

Rickards on what would trigger a collapse of the international monetary system and how such a collapse would look like:

A collapse usually comes from a loss of confidence, and confidence is a very intangible thing.

One of the problems with policymakers, in particular the Fed but alos the White House and the Treasury, is that they use these equilibrium models and they think that if nominal GDP is not high enough they can print money which creates inflation, get nominal GDP on a sustainable path, withdrawal policy, replace GDP with real GDP. As they say, this is where the equilibrium models would protect; this is what policymakers rely on. In fact, the world is NOT an equilibrium system, it is a complex system, and complex systems are characterized by sudden sharp changes what physicists call phase transitions (I think a more proper terminology would be a tipping point). You can print and print up to the point of a collapse and then suddenly confidence disappears. So I think the policymakers take confidence for granted. They are in the process of destroying confidence, slowly at first and then very suddenly.

By the way, when I talk about the collapse in the international monetary system that is not meant to be a provocative statement. The international monetary system actually has collapsed three times in the past 100 years; it collapsed in 1914, in 1939, and again in 1971. So these things do happen, and it does not mean the end of the world. It does mean we all go live in caves. What it means is that the major trading financial powers have to sit down, create a new system to replace the one that failed. In my new book, I look forward and define what the new system could look like, who the players could be, what the alternatives would be to the current dollar system. For example, China was not a player in the 70ies; the last time this happened at the Smithsonian agreement in 1971, China was around of course but was not a big factor in the international monetary system. This time they will be a player, so what does that mean?

Rickards on which options the Fed has left:

We are in a depression. If the Fed were to taper, which I do not expect, but if they did it they would be tapering into weakness and they would guarantee a recession 2014. I think the data will bear that out. They are not going to taper; they painted themselves into a corner where there are no good ways out: if they taper, then they taper into weakness and cause a recession, but if they keep printing eventually they will destroy the confidence in the dollar and create an international monetary crisis. There are bad outcomes either way which is what happens when you manipulate markets.

Rickards on why there will be no tapering but rather an increase of asset purchases:

There are papers presented last week by Federal Open Market Committee economists, and they suggested that the unemployment threshold which currently is at 6.5% to be moved down to 5.5%. This could suggest keeping rates low through 2017. Is this just the Fed testing waters here?

Well, the Fed always speaks in code. If you go back to December 2012, when the Fed first announced that target, it was never a trigger; it was always a threshold. In other words, they did not say we will raise interest rates when unemployment gets to 6.5%, they said we will not raise interest rates until it gets 6.5% but it could get a lot lower than that before we raise it. This paper just confirms that.

Unemployment is going down for the wrong reasons. Unemployment is not going down because you are creating a lot of jobs; it is going down because labor force participation is collapsing. That is extremely negative for the economy; GDP is really just the sum of labor force participation plus productivity. So how many people are working and how productive are they. With the number of people
shrinking at an unprecedented rate going back to levels last seen in 1978 (when women did not participate in the workforce).

What the paper really says is that they have given up on real growth and they are targeting nominal growth. This is just nominal GDP targeting by another name. If real growth is not good enough and you have to get nominal growth to a certain level you make up the difference with inflation. To do that, they are going to print money. That paper is completely in accord with Yellen her views as expressed in prior speeches and papers and other interviews she has given. Actually, I expect the next change in policy will not be tapering, it will be an increase in asset purchases. I think there is a good chance of a recession in 2014, and if we will not see any fiscal relief the Fed should respond to that by an increase in asset purchases.

Market Monitor – November 13th

Posted: 13 Nov 2013 01:53 PM PST

Top Market Stories For November 13th, 2013: Comex Claims Per Deliverable Ounce Up Again To 62 - Jesse's Cafe Miner Hedging & Smart Buying Seen If Gold Falls to “Symbolic” $1000 – Financial Sense Bullion goes East as Shanghai opens 2,000 t gold vault – Mineweb India mulling easing gold import restrictions - Mineweb Gold & Silver vs. [...]

Hope versus Gold – Place Your Bets

Posted: 13 Nov 2013 01:38 PM PST

The inevitable conclusion of this article by Gary Christenson is that, over the long term, money supply, debt, and prices will increase until there is a systemic reset or crash.  What will endure throughout the inevitable inflation, deflation, and crash?  Gold and silver will endure.  Paper assets are only as good as the collateral backing them, and many of those assets could vaporize in a systemic reset.  Physical gold and silver will survive and maintain their value, while the dollar and Treasury Debt may lose a good portion of their value and purchasing power.

The BIG Perspective is shown on the following "Point & Figure" chart from Ron Rosen.  This type of chart plots price on the "y" axis while the "x" axis shows time but without uniform distance between years.  The long term trend has been up since 1970 and 2001, while the intermediate trend has been down for the past 26 months.

gold price 1970 2013 money currency

The following are logarithmic charts of the official U.S. national debt, gold, silver, and crude oil for the past three to four decades.

US national debt 1970 2013 money currency gold price 1978 2013 money currency silver price 1978 2013 money currency oil price 1970 2013 money currency

Clearly the long term trends are up.  Why? 

  • A debt based paper currency system must expand to survive! 
  • The Fed needs an increasing money supply and more debt.
  • Congress and the administration aggressively spend money, borrow money, and increase the national debt.  It will take a real crisis to change this – much worse than a phony debt ceiling crisis.
  • The financial industry wants to churn more paper assets, debt, derivatives, and volatility to increase their profits.

Is your strategy based on hope or change?

Hope is not a good basis for an investment plan.  Hope is not a viable foundation for a political philosophy or for the actions of a government.  Hope will not pay the bills, reduce the debt, or return sanity to an out-of-control spending process.

Ask yourself how well these are working:

  • We spent the rent money on lottery tickets and booze.  We hope something good happens soon.
  • We spent a few $Trillion on useless wars in the middle-east.  We hope it helped.
  • We spent $17,000,000,000,000 more than our revenue.  We hope it is not a problem.
  • We sold or "leased" much of our accumulated gold and sent it to China.  We hope nobody noticed and that it will not matter.
  • We hope to increase taxes and reduce benefits while increasing consumer prices and we hope to keep the people happy and voting for the incumbents.  (This is also change.)
  • We hope to actually pass a budget real soon.  (Congress has not passed a budget in the past five years.  Did anyone notice or care?)
  • We hope to reduce the deficit real soon.
  • We hope the Federal Reserve and the politicians will make it all better.
  • We hope that hope and change will begin to work real soon.
  • We hope we don't have another stock market or bond market crash.

As for "CHANGE" – it can be positive or negative.  Not all change is good.   We "HOPED" for better government and we received Obamacare.  Was that a positive change?

Gee, we hope that the 10 Million or so people whose insurance plans will be cancelled and who will be forced to purchase new health insurance policies at much higher rates are okay with the change, increased deductibles and the increased costs.  We hope they don't get upset or angry or think someone lied to them.

Gold and Silver! 

Dr. Phil says that the best predictor of future behavior is relevant past behavior.  Using that thought it seems clear that:

1)   The official national debt will continue to exponentially increase like it has for more than four decades.

2)   The dollar will continue to decline in purchasing power like it has for the past 100 years.

3)   Gold and silver will continue to (erratically) increase in price like they have for the past 40 years.

4)   Gold and silver will hold their value and purchasing power like they have for 5,000 years.

5)   Government deficit spending and borrowing will continue.

6)   There will be another budget crisis, and another, and another.

7)   Politicians will talk, make promises, and become much wealthier while the middle and lower classes find their expenses increasing far more rapidly than their incomes.  We will re-elect those politicians.

8)   Hope and change will continue to produce what they have so far – nothing but more debt.

9)  Gold and silver will outlast hope, change, paper money, treasury debt, and political promises.  Most people do not and will not understand why!

So, place your bets!

paper vs gold 2013 money currency

Most people will stick with what they know – paper currency, debt based paper assets, political promises, hope and change, and reality television.  The choice is yours, but you will have a better financial future and more peace of mind if you invest in something real and valuable.

 

More to consider:
Created Currencies … Are Not Gold!
We Have Been Warned – Part 3
What You Think Is True Might Be False and Costly

 

GE Christenson  |  The Deviant Investor

The Stock Market Has Become Insane

Posted: 13 Nov 2013 01:34 PM PST

Common calculations of aggregate 'wealth' take the entire stock of an asset class and multiply it by the bubble prices, on the theory that financial value is what you can sell something for.  Of course, some clever or lucky individuals succeed in selling at the bubble highs, but the aggregate bubble prices can never be realized by sale.  As soon as any very great number of the owners of a bubble asset try to sell it, the bubble collapses, the evanescent "wealth" disappears, and the long-term trend reasserts itself  - Alex Pollock, Resident Scholar at the American Enterprise Institute

I was chatting with someone earlier about how the current market reminds me of the tech bubble in 1999-early 2000.  The NASDAQ peaked a little over 5,000 in March 2000.  There were maybe a few lucky souls who sold at the top but anyone else who claimed to do so is lying to cover up the accidents in their 401k's.  The I looked to see where the Naz is right now and I discovered it was shade below 4,000.  I stopped watching the Naz a long time ago because it reminds me of the penny stock markets in Denver and Salt Lake of the 1970's.  Mostly fraudulent.

Then I looked for comparative purposes at the S&P 500 futures, as I was watching it ramp higher today unceasingly in the last hour to close up over 13 points (close to 1%) despite opening the day down about 9 points.  No news or fundamental reason for the ramp.  Unless you consider the Federal Reserve's money printing program to be of fundamental value.  Hmmmm, let's see.  The Fed issues 1 dollar and it's a one banana world, so it costs $1 to buy the banana.  Then the Fed issues another dollar but there's no more bananas produced and I'm hungry so the guy who has the banana charges me $2 dollars.  I felt wealthier when I had $2, but it still cost me $2 to buy the banana.  That's an absurd simplification, that's basically what the Fed is doing.  You call that value-added?  You call that wealth creating?  In it's most simple-to-understand form it's "inflation."

We might not see the immediate affects of inflation tomorrow when we go buy food at the grocery store, because those dollars being printed are piling blindly and foolishly into the stock market.  Why?  Because the demand for mortgages for buying homes and refinancing existing mortgages is quickly disappearing, so all that printed money has to go somewhere. It was previously going into cheap mortgages used to buy homes to flip.  That game is over now.  The housing bubble is popping. Here's where the money IS going:


If you think there's any semblance of fundamentals driving this market other than massive quantities of Fed "cheese," then please review the graph I posted on the upper right side of this blog.

Now, for those of you who think that you'll have the discipline to hold on until this thing peaks, then I will tell you that in 1999 when the Naz was at 3000 and I thought that was the peak, it ran up another 66% from there.  Could that happen with the SPX?  Sure.  But also know that in January 1923 the German stock market index was 21,400.  By November 13, 1923 it had run up 26,890,000.  Don't blink or rub your eyes, you can look it up.  Then on November 14, 1923 the German billionaires woke up and found themselves destitute, as the German Government revalued the mark at 1 for 1 billion.  Your billion in the stock market was now worth 1.  You didn't even get a chance to sell.

Don't think that won't happen here, because it can and probably will.  And you better pray that's how this grand Keynes/Volker/Greenspan/Bernanke/Yellen experiment turns out, because the alternative is that the U.S. starts a world war (we've heard that before, twice when Germany ruled the globe) because China is the country that forced the revaluation of the dollar.  If you want to see how that ends, read "The Road."  Just remember:  Arbeit macht frei...

The Stock Market Has Become Insane

Posted: 13 Nov 2013 01:34 PM PST

Common calculations of aggregate 'wealth' take the entire stock of an asset class and multiply it by the bubble prices, on the theory that financial value is what you can sell something for.  Of course, some clever or lucky individuals succeed in selling at the bubble highs, but the aggregate bubble prices can never be realized by sale.  As soon as any very great number of the owners of a bubble asset try to sell it, the bubble collapses, the evanescent "wealth" disappears, and the long-term trend reasserts itself  - Alex Pollock, Resident Scholar at the American Enterprise Institute

I was chatting with someone earlier about how the current market reminds me of the tech bubble in 1999-early 2000.  The NASDAQ peaked a little over 5,000 in March 2000.  There were maybe a few lucky souls who sold at the top but anyone else who claimed to do so is lying to cover up the accidents in their 401k's.  The I looked to see where the Naz is right now and I discovered it was shade below 4,000.  I stopped watching the Naz a long time ago because it reminds me of the penny stock markets in Denver and Salt Lake of the 1970's.  Mostly fraudulent.

Then I looked for comparative purposes at the S&P 500 futures, as I was watching it ramp higher today unceasingly in the last hour to close up over 13 points (close to 1%) despite opening the day down about 9 points.  No news or fundamental reason for the ramp.  Unless you consider the Federal Reserve's money printing program to be of fundamental value.  Hmmmm, let's see.  The Fed issues 1 dollar and it's a one banana world, so it costs $1 to buy the banana.  Then the Fed issues another dollar but there's no more bananas produced and I'm hungry so the guy who has the banana charges me $2 dollars.  I felt wealthier when I had $2, but it still cost me $2 to buy the banana.  That's an absurd simplification, that's basically what the Fed is doing.  You call that value-added?  You call that wealth creating?  In it's most simple-to-understand form it's "inflation."

We might not see the immediate affects of inflation tomorrow when we go buy food at the grocery store, because those dollars being printed are piling blindly and foolishly into the stock market.  Why?  Because the demand for mortgages for buying homes and refinancing existing mortgages is quickly disappearing, so all that printed money has to go somewhere. It was previously going into cheap mortgages used to buy homes to flip.  That game is over now.  The housing bubble is popping. Here's where the money IS going:


If you think there's any semblance of fundamentals driving this market other than massive quantities of Fed "cheese," then please review the graph I posted on the upper right side of this blog.

Now, for those of you who think that you'll have the discipline to hold on until this thing peaks, then I will tell you that in 1999 when the Naz was at 3000 and I thought that was the peak, it ran up another 66% from there.  Could that happen with the SPX?  Sure.  But also know that in January 1923 the German stock market index was 21,400.  By November 13, 1923 it had run up 26,890,000.  Don't blink or rub your eyes, you can look it up.  Then on November 14, 1923 the German billionaires woke up and found themselves destitute, as the German Government revalued the mark at 1 for 1 billion.  Your billion in the stock market was now worth 1.  You didn't even get a chance to sell.

Don't think that won't happen here, because it can and probably will.  And you better pray that's how this grand Keynes/Volker/Greenspan/Bernanke/Yellen experiment turns out, because the alternative is that the U.S. starts a world war (we've heard that before, twice when Germany ruled the globe) because China is the country that forced the revaluation of the dollar.  If you want to see how that ends, read "The Road."  Just remember:  Arbeit macht frei...

Sprott says central banks smashed gold in April to liquidate GLD's metal

Posted: 13 Nov 2013 01:15 PM PST

3:30p CT Wednesday, November 13, 2013

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold (and Silver):

GoldSeek and SilverSeek President Peter Spina today interviews Sprott Asset Management CEO Eric Sprott about the dichotomy between the physical and paper gold and silver markets. Sprott expects delivery problems to explode the paper markets soon. He also speculates that Western central banks, running out of gold for market manipulation, orchestrated the smash in the gold price in April to induce liquidation of gold from the exchange-traded fund GLD. That gold having been liquidated, Sprott says, "It's not going to happen again." He also speculates that those central banks pressured the Indian government into terminating gold imports. The interview is 29 minutes long and can be heard at SilverSeek here:

http://www.silverseek.com/commentary/eric-sprott-silver-silver-stocks-wi...

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.



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Buy metals at GoldMoney and enjoy international storage

GoldMoney was established in 2001 by James and Geoff Turk and is safeguarding more than $1.7 billion in metals and currencies. Buy gold, silver, platinum, and palladium from GoldMoney over the Internet and store them in vaults in Canada, Hong Kong, Singapore, Switzerland, and the United Kingdom, ­taking advantage of GoldMoney's low storage rates, among the most competitive in the industry. GoldMoney also offers delivery of 100-gram and 1-kilogram gold bars and 1-kilogram silver bars. To learn more, please visit:

http://www.goldmoney.com/?gmrefcode=gata



Join GATA here:

Vancouver Resource Investment Conference
Vancouver Convention Centre West
Sunday-Monday, January 19-20, 2014
Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada

http://www.cambridgehouse.com/event/vancouver-resource-investment-confer...

* * *

Support GATA by purchasing DVDs of our London conference in August 2011 or our Dawson City conference in August 2006:

http://www.goldrush21.com/order.html

Or by purchasing a colorful GATA T-shirt:

http://gata.org/tshirts

Or a colorful poster of GATA's full-page ad in The Wall Street Journal on January 31, 2009:

http://gata.org/node/wallstreetjournal

Help keep GATA going

GATA is a civil rights and educational organization based in the United States and tax-exempt under the U.S. Internal Revenue Code. Its e-mail dispatches are free, and you can subscribe at:

http://www.gata.org

To contribute to GATA, please visit:

http://www.gata.org/node/16



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How to profit with silver --
and which stocks to buy now

Future Money Trends is offering a special 16-page silver report with our forecast for 2013 that includes profiles of nine companies and technical analysis of their stock performance. Six of the companies have market capitalizations of less than $800 million and one company has a market cap of only $30 million. The most exciting of these companies will begin production in a few weeks and has a market cap of just $150 million.

Half of all proceeds from the sale of this report will be donated to the Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee to support its efforts exposing manipulation and fraud in the gold and silver markets.

To learn about this report, please visit:

http://www.futuremoneytrends.com/index.php?option=com_content&id=376&tmp...


Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts - Cap, Cap, Cap

Posted: 13 Nov 2013 01:08 PM PST

Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts - Cap, Cap, Cap

Posted: 13 Nov 2013 01:08 PM PST

Russell's Dow Theory Letter notes GATA's work in New Orleans

Posted: 13 Nov 2013 12:41 PM PST

2:42p CT Wednesday, November 13, 2013

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Richard Russell's Dow Theory Letter (http://ww2.dowtheoryletters.com/) sent a deputy to the New Orleans Investment Conference and today took note of your secretary/treasurer's presentation there.

An excerpt from the report:

"I tend to agree with the negative short-term prognosis for gold. The fact that the metal hasn't rallied amid continued QE sends a signal that something is off. Investors may be liquidating their positions in anticipation of further weakness that could accompany the reduction in bond purchases

"Chris Powell, founder of the Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee (GATA), has devoted much of his time and effort to exposing the manipulation of the gold markets. According to him, central banks intervene in the gold markets on a daily basis, largely through dealers and the Bank for International Settlements. The goal of the manipulation is to manage the negative effect on the dollar that a high gold price would cause. We'll be taking a closer look at the data he has gathered and will share our perspective in future remarks."

In case other mainstream financial journalists want to review the documentation of gold price suppression before dismissing complaints of such suppression as mere "conspiracy theory" -- that is, in case financial journalists ever want to attempt actual journalism by doing some research -- your secretary/treasurer's presentation to the New Orleans conference and other recent conferences, summarizing that documentation, is posted at GATA's Internet site here:

http://www.gata.org/node/13185

And GATA's general documentation file is here:

http://www.gata.org/taxonomy/term/21

A free tin-foil hat will be awarded to the first mainstream financial journalist who tries putting specific and critical questions to any central bank about its activity in the gold market and reports the bank's refusal to answer. Ideas for such questions may be found here:

http://www.gata.org/node/11862

http://www.gata.org/node/11661

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.



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All Pro Gold can provide immediate delivery of 100-ounce Johnson Matthey silver bars, bags of 90 percent junk silver coins, and 1-ounce silver Austrian Philharmonics.

All Pro Gold can deliver silver Canadian maple leafs with a two-day delay and 1-ounce U.S. silver eagles with a 15-day delay.

Traditional 1-ounce gold bullion coins and mint-state generic gold double eagles are also available for immediate delivery.

All Pro Gold has competitive pricing, and its proprietors, longtime GATA supporters Fred Goldstein and Tim Murphy, are glad to answer any questions or concerns of buyers about the acquisition of precious metals and numismatic coins.

Learn more at www.allprogold.com or email info@allprogold.com or telephone All Pro Gold toll-free at 1-855-377-4653.



Join GATA here:

Vancouver Resource Investment Conference
Vancouver Convention Centre West
Sunday-Monday, January 19-20, 2014
Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada

http://www.cambridgehouse.com/event/vancouver-resource-investment-confer...

* * *

Support GATA by purchasing DVDs of our London conference in August 2011 or our Dawson City conference in August 2006:

http://www.goldrush21.com/order.html

Or by purchasing a colorful GATA T-shirt:

http://gata.org/tshirts

Or a colorful poster of GATA's full-page ad in The Wall Street Journal on January 31, 2009:

http://gata.org/node/wallstreetjournal

Help keep GATA going

GATA is a civil rights and educational organization based in the United States and tax-exempt under the U.S. Internal Revenue Code. Its e-mail dispatches are free, and you can subscribe at:

http://www.gata.org

To contribute to GATA, please visit:

http://www.gata.org/node/16

Gold Trader: Gold Signaling “Manufactured” Crash Over Next 30-40 Trading Days

Posted: 13 Nov 2013 12:39 PM PST

**This interview was recorded Tuesday evening, 11/13/2013**

I had the chance yesterday to reconnect with technical gold trader Gary Savage, publisher of the Smart Money Tracker daily gold market commentary and trading service, which has outperformed most of the world's hedge funds in 2011 and 2012.

It was a powerful conversation as Gary indicated that

This posting includes an audio/video/photo media file: Download Now

David Franklin: Vaults are booming -- in Asia

Posted: 13 Nov 2013 12:26 PM PST

2:21p CT Wednesday, November 13, 2013

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Sprott Asset Management's David Franklin notes today that the great boom in vault construction in Asia suggests that that part of the world is planning a bright future for gold.

"Vault space was limited around the world last year as most bullion-dealing banks doubled their vaulting fees," Franklin writes. "These new facilities in Asia further reflect the enormous increase in the physical precious metals trade and a requirement for secure storage. With these new vaults located in Asia (or now owned by Asians) it would appear the massive amounts of gold being shipped East will not see the inside of a London or Swiss vault ever again."

Frankin's commentary is headlined "Vaults Are Booming -- In Asia" and it's posted at the Sprott Internet site here:

http://tinyurl.com/lw2gcrm

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.



ADVERTISEMENT

How to profit with silver --
and which stocks to buy now

Future Money Trends is offering a special 16-page silver report with our forecast for 2013 that includes profiles of nine companies and technical analysis of their stock performance. Six of the companies have market capitalizations of less than $800 million and one company has a market cap of only $30 million. The most exciting of these companies will begin production in a few weeks and has a market cap of just $150 million.

Half of all proceeds from the sale of this report will be donated to the Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee to support its efforts exposing manipulation and fraud in the gold and silver markets.

To learn about this report, please visit:

http://www.futuremoneytrends.com/index.php?option=com_content&id=376&tmp...



Join GATA here:

Vancouver Resource Investment Conference
Vancouver Convention Centre West
Sunday-Monday, January 19-20, 2014
Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada

http://www.cambridgehouse.com/event/vancouver-resource-investment-confer...

* * *

Support GATA by purchasing DVDs of our London conference in August 2011 or our Dawson City conference in August 2006:

http://www.goldrush21.com/order.html

Or by purchasing a colorful GATA T-shirt:

http://gata.org/tshirts

Or a colorful poster of GATA's full-page ad in The Wall Street Journal on January 31, 2009:

http://gata.org/node/wallstreetjournal

Help keep GATA going

GATA is a civil rights and educational organization based in the United States and tax-exempt under the U.S. Internal Revenue Code. Its e-mail dispatches are free, and you can subscribe at:

http://www.gata.org

To contribute to GATA, please visit:

http://www.gata.org/node/16



ADVERTISEMENT

Buy metals at GoldMoney and enjoy international storage

GoldMoney was established in 2001 by James and Geoff Turk and is safeguarding more than $1.7 billion in metals and currencies. Buy gold, silver, platinum, and palladium from GoldMoney over the Internet and store them in vaults in Canada, Hong Kong, Singapore, Switzerland, and the United Kingdom, ­taking advantage of GoldMoney's low storage rates, among the most competitive in the industry. GoldMoney also offers delivery of 100-gram and 1-kilogram gold bars and 1-kilogram silver bars. To learn more, please visit:

http://www.goldmoney.com/?gmrefcode=gata


Russian legislative proposal would outlaw U.S. dollar

Posted: 13 Nov 2013 12:19 PM PST

By Mark Bennetts
The Washington Times
Wednesday, November 13, 2013

http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2013/nov/13/bill-would-outlaw-us-dol...

MOSCOW -- Predicting the imminent collapse of the U.S. dollar, a Russian lawmaker submitted a bill to the country's parliament on Wednesday that would ban the use or possession of the American currency.

"If the U.S. national debt continues to grow, the collapse of the dollar system will take place in 2017," said Mikhail Degtyarev, a lawmaker from the nationalist Liberal Democrat Party, who proposed the bill.

"The countries that will suffer the most will be those that have failed to wean themselves off their dependence on the dollar in time. In light of this, the fact that confidence in the dollar is growing among Russian citizens is extremely dangerous."

... Dispatch continues below ...



ADVERTISEMENT

Buy metals at GoldMoney and enjoy international storage

GoldMoney was established in 2001 by James and Geoff Turk and is safeguarding more than $1.7 billion in metals and currencies. Buy gold, silver, platinum, and palladium from GoldMoney over the Internet and store them in vaults in Canada, Hong Kong, Singapore, Switzerland, and the United Kingdom, ­taking advantage of GoldMoney's low storage rates, among the most competitive in the industry. GoldMoney also offers delivery of 100-gram and 1-kilogram gold bars and 1-kilogram silver bars. To learn more, please visit:

http://www.goldmoney.com/?gmrefcode=gata



Mr. Degtyarev, a losing candidate in Moscow's recent mayoral election, also compared the dollar to a Ponzi scheme. He warned that the government would have to bail out Russians holding the U.S. currency if it collapsed.

His bill would partially revive a Soviet-era ban on the dollar. It would prohibit Russians from holding dollars in the country's banks, and banks would be unable to carry out transactions in the dollar.

However, Russians still would be able to buy or sell dollars while abroad, as well as hold dollar accounts in foreign banks.

The Central Bank of the Russian Federation and the government would be exempt from the law.

Russian financial experts were largely critical of the bill, which they suggested was more about making political capital on the back of rising anti-U.S. sentiments in Russia than protecting the country's economy.

"The American financial system, despite all its problems, remains the most stable and low-risk in the world," financial analyst Andrei Shenk said.

He also warned that the bill would harm Russia's investment climate.

Another expert warned that the bill would strip Russians of the ability to flee the country to seek greater political and social freedoms.

"The right to the free exchange of currencies is a fundamental element of capitalism," said Moscow-based economics expert Igor Suzdaltsev. "It allows citizens to leave the country when a dictatorship is imposed by selling their property and exchanging their assets for the necessary currency."

* * *

Join GATA here:

Vancouver Resource Investment Conference
Vancouver Convention Centre West
Sunday-Monday, January 19-20, 2014
Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada

http://www.cambridgehouse.com/event/vancouver-resource-investment-confer...

* * *

Support GATA by purchasing DVDs of our London conference in August 2011 or our Dawson City conference in August 2006:

http://www.goldrush21.com/order.html

Or by purchasing a colorful GATA T-shirt:

http://gata.org/tshirts

Or a colorful poster of GATA's full-page ad in The Wall Street Journal on January 31, 2009:

http://gata.org/node/wallstreetjournal

Help keep GATA going

GATA is a civil rights and educational organization based in the United States and tax-exempt under the U.S. Internal Revenue Code. Its e-mail dispatches are free, and you can subscribe at:

http://www.gata.org

To contribute to GATA, please visit:

http://www.gata.org/node/16



ADVERTISEMENT

How to profit with silver --
and which stocks to buy now

Future Money Trends is offering a special 16-page silver report with our forecast for 2013 that includes profiles of nine companies and technical analysis of their stock performance. Six of the companies have market capitalizations of less than $800 million and one company has a market cap of only $30 million. The most exciting of these companies will begin production in a few weeks and has a market cap of just $150 million.

Half of all proceeds from the sale of this report will be donated to the Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee to support its efforts exposing manipulation and fraud in the gold and silver markets.

To learn about this report, please visit:

http://www.futuremoneytrends.com/index.php?option=com_content&id=376&tmp...


Market manipulation is increasing but China will soon control gold, Kaye says

Posted: 13 Nov 2013 12:10 PM PST

2p CT Wednesday, November 13, 2013

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Hong Kong fund manager William Kaye today tells King World News that bank manipulation of markets is increasing but that China soon will control the gold market, inducing far higher prices. An excerpt from the interview is posted at the King World News blog here:

http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2013/11/13_M...

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.



ADVERTISEMENT

You Don't Have to Wait for Your Monetary Metal:
All Pro Gold Has Product for Immediate Delivery

Many investors lately report having to wait weeks and even months for delivery of their precious metal orders. All Pro Gold works with the largest wholesalers that have inventory "live" -- ready to go. All Pro Gold can ship these "live" gold and silver products as soon as payment funds clear.

All Pro Gold can provide immediate delivery of 100-ounce Johnson Matthey silver bars, bags of 90 percent junk silver coins, and 1-ounce silver Austrian Philharmonics.

All Pro Gold can deliver silver Canadian maple leafs with a two-day delay and 1-ounce U.S. silver eagles with a 15-day delay.

Traditional 1-ounce gold bullion coins and mint-state generic gold double eagles are also available for immediate delivery.

All Pro Gold has competitive pricing, and its proprietors, longtime GATA supporters Fred Goldstein and Tim Murphy, are glad to answer any questions or concerns of buyers about the acquisition of precious metals and numismatic coins.

Learn more at www.allprogold.com or email info@allprogold.com or telephone All Pro Gold toll-free at 1-855-377-4653.



Join GATA here:

Vancouver Resource Investment Conference
Vancouver Convention Centre West
Sunday-Monday, January 19-20, 2014
Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada

http://www.cambridgehouse.com/event/vancouver-resource-investment-confer...

* * *

Support GATA by purchasing DVDs of our London conference in August 2011 or our Dawson City conference in August 2006:

http://www.goldrush21.com/order.html

Or by purchasing a colorful GATA T-shirt:

http://gata.org/tshirts

Or a colorful poster of GATA's full-page ad in The Wall Street Journal on January 31, 2009:

http://gata.org/node/wallstreetjournal

Help keep GATA going

GATA is a civil rights and educational organization based in the United States and tax-exempt under the U.S. Internal Revenue Code. Its e-mail dispatches are free, and you can subscribe at:

http://www.gata.org

To contribute to GATA, please visit:

http://www.gata.org/node/16

Historic Meeting In China To Shake The Entire World

Posted: 13 Nov 2013 11:54 AM PST

On the heels of more volatile trading in global markets, today Canadian legend John Ing warned King World News that a historic meeting which just took place in China is going to rock the world, including financial markets, for some time to come. Ing, who has been in the business for 43 years, also spoke about the ongoing war in the gold market as well as what investors should expect to see going forward in his fascinating interview.

This posting includes an audio/video/photo media file: Download Now

Household Wealth Leans Over an Uneven Recovery

Posted: 13 Nov 2013 11:37 AM PST

As H.L. Mencken opined, "The most dangerous man to any government is the man who is able to think things out for himself, without regard to the prevailing superstitions and taboos. Almost inevitably he comes to the conclusion that the government he lives under is dishonest, insane, and intolerable."

It is no wonder that, according to a Gallup Poll conducted in early October, a record-low 14% of Americans thought that the country was headed in the right direction, down from 30% in September. That's the biggest single-month drop in the poll since the shutdown of 1990. Some 78% think the country is on the wrong track.

Some readers will, of course, ask what this expose about the political future has to do with investments. It has nothing to do with what the stock market will do tomorrow, the day after tomorrow, or in the next three months. But it has a lot to do with the future of the US (and other Western democracies where socio-political conditions are hardly any better).

I have written about the consequences of a dysfunctional political system elsewhere. In May 2011 I explained how expansionary monetary policies had favoured what Joseph Stiglitz called "the elite" at the expense of ordinary people by increasing the wealth and income of the "one percent" far more than that of the majority of the American people.

Chart showing the debt of the US since Jimmy Carter was in office

I also quoted at the time Alexander Fraser Tytler (1747–1813), who opined as follows: "A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until voters discover that they can vote themselves largesse from the Public Treasury. From that moment on, the majority always votes for the candidates promising the most benefits from the Public Treasury with the result that a democracy always collapses over loose fiscal policy, always followed by dictatorship" (emphasis added).

Later, Alexis de Tocqueville observed: "The American Republic will endure until the day Congress discovers that it can bribe the public with the public's money."

To be fair to Mr. Obama, the government debt under his administration has expanded at a much slower pace in percentage terms than under the Reagan administration and the two Bush geniuses. In fact, as much as I hate to say this, Mr. Obama has been (or been forced to be) a fiscal conservative.

Chart showing the US spending since the Clinton era

However, what 18th and 19th-century economists and social observers failed to observe is that democracies can also collapse over loose monetary policies. And in this respect, under the Obama administration, the Fed's balance sheet has exploded. John Maynard Keynes got it 100% right when he wrote:

By a continuing process of inflation, Governments can confiscate, secretly and unobserved, an important part of the wealth of their citizens. By this method they not only confiscate, but they confiscate arbitrarily; and, while the process impoverishes many, it actually enriches some…. Those to whom the system brings windfalls … become "profiteers" who are the object of the hatred… The process of wealth getting degenerates into a gamble and a lottery…. Lenin was certainly right. There is no subtler, no surer means of overturning the existing basis of society than to debauch the currency. The process engages all the hidden forces of economic law on the side of destruction, and does it in a manner which not one man in a million is able to diagnose [emphasis added].

The Fed takes great pride in the fact that US household wealth has now exceeded the 2007 high. However, I was pleasantly surprised when I recently attended a presentation by Larry Lindsey, at my friend Gary Bahre's New Hampshire estate. He unmistakably showed, based on the Fed's own Survey of Consumer Finance and Flow of Funds, that the recovery in household wealth has been extremely uneven.

Household Net Worth (Billions) By Wealth Percentile

Readers should focus on the last column of Table 1, which depicts the change in household wealth between 2007 and 2013 by wealth percentile. As can be seen, the bottom 50% of the population is still down more than 40% in terms of their "wealth" from the 2007 high. (Lindsey is a rather level-headed former Member of the Board of the Governors of the Federal Reserve System, in which capacity he served between 1991 and 1997.)

Besides the uneven recovery of household wealth among different wealth groups, a closer look at consumer credit, which is now at a record level, is also revealing. Furthermore, consumer credit as a percentage of disposable personal income is almost at the pre-crisis high. But what I found most interesting is how different income and wealth groups adjusted their outstanding total debt (including consumer credit, mortgage debt, etc.) following the crisis.

Larry Lindsey showed us a table — again based on the Fed's own Survey of Consumer Finance and Flow of Funds data — which depicts total debt increases and decreases (in US$ billions) among these different income and wealth groups. I find it remarkable that the lower 40% of income recipients and the lower 50% of wealth owners actually increased their debts meaningfully post-2007. In other words, approximately 50% of Americans in the lower income and wealth groups who are both voters and consumers would seem to be more indebted than ever. A fair assumption is also that these people form the majority of the government's social benefits recipients.

Now, since these lower income and wealth groups increased their debts post-2007 and enjoyed higher social benefits, they were also to some extent supporting the economy and corporate profits. But what about the future?

Entitlements are unlikely to expand much further as a percentage of GDP, and these lower-income recipients' higher debts are likely to become a headwind for consumer spending. Simply put, in my opinion, it is most unlikely that US economic growth will surprise on the upside in the next few years.

It is more likely there will be negative surprises.

Regards,

Marc Faber
for The Daily Reckoning

Ed. Note: If you’re like many Americans who want to retire (or have already) you’re worried about running out of the money you’ve worked your entire adult life for… just when you need it most. And as Dr. Faber pointed out, it's harder for average Americans to grow their wealth now more than ever before. That’s why today’s Daily Reckoning email edition gave readers a chance to discover an incredibly effective strategy to make as much money as you need to retire, in just one month. If you didn’t get it, you might have missed out. To get the full story, and to ensure you don’t miss any other important opportunities, sign up for the free Daily Reckoning email edition, right here.

Platinum: Today’s ‘Rich Man’s Gold’ Palladium: Tomorrow’s?

Posted: 13 Nov 2013 11:20 AM PST

David Morgan very kindly sent us this article this morning which we hope you find both interesting and informative.

The Platinum Group Metals (PGMs) are a family comprised of 6 metals – platinum, palladium rhodium, iridium, osmium and ruthenium. But for our purpose today (and for most investors), we are only interested in the first two – platinum and palladium.

Platinum is usually more expensive than gold. But for well over a year, it actually traded for less – substantially less. One could purchase a troy ounce of platinum for $150 or so less than a troy ounce of gold. (As a side note, during the time of this unusual inverted pricing relationship, in expectation of the “norm” reestablishing itself, I placed a long platinum/short gold spread trade. Of course, this did indeed take place and I was able to make a good profit on the trade.)

WE THE STATE WILL TAKE CARE OF YOU

Posted: 13 Nov 2013 11:12 AM PST

Hugo believes the ruling class will retain their control and power by re-setting the world monetary system, with gold as part of the new system. I believe the ruling class will attempt this “solution” to their reckless destruction of the existing monetary system, but they will likely lose control and havoc, war, and revolution will […]

Vaults are Booming! (in Asia)

Posted: 13 Nov 2013 10:11 AM PST

13-Nov (SprottGroup) — For the better part of the last century, Switzerland has been a sanctuary for high-net-worth capital. Today, however, the rich are choosing a different destination to stash their wealth – Asia. Gold, silver and collectibles are pouring into Singapore, Hong Kong and Shanghai, jurisdictions that now offer some of the most exclusive gold and silver vault options in the world.

With the recent wealth explosion in Asia, these clients are preferring to keep their collectibles and bullion close at hand. Recently published trade data supports our presumption that a significant amount of physical gold from ETF liquidations was indeed heading East. But where to exactly once it arrived? Several transactions have taken place this month which confirm the new Asian facilities as the final destination for the physical gold that has been transferred out of London and Swiss vaults.

…In a stunning transaction announced in October, a Chinese conglomerate purchased the headquarters of Chase Manhattan bank (JP Morgan Chase), and its underground facilities that include the world's largest bank vault!

[source]

The Daily Market Report: Gold Firms as ECB Talks QE

Posted: 13 Nov 2013 09:48 AM PST


13-Nov (USAGOLD) — Gold rebounded overseas, spurred by Asian physical demand. The yellow metal fell to a four-week low on Tuesday, piquing the interest of of bargain hunters. We here at USAGOLD were quite busy yesterday.

The gold has been pressured in recent sessions by renewed worries that the Fed might start draining the punchbowl before year-end, which many seemingly would view as a signal that said punchbowl will ultimately be removed.

As I’ve stated many times, I remain skeptical about the taper. In fact last week, when the ECB cut rates to a record low 0.25% — and hinted at the potential for further accommodations — I felt my position gained further credence. With the ECB clearly still in easing mode, the Fed in my opinion was unlikely to move even slightly in the opposite direction.

The ECB had the room to move primarily because recent indications of disinflation gave them the necessary cover. It allowed them to knock the euro off of new two-year highs against the dollar and recent four-year highs against the yen. It was the latest salvo in the ongoing currency war.

However, the single currency began to creep back this week, so ECB executive board member Peter Praet reiterated to The Wall Street Journal that the central bank had weapons of mass currency destruction at its disposal and wasn’t afraid to use them. “If our mandate is at risk we are going to take all the measures that we think we should take to fulfill that mandate. That’s a very clear signal,” said Praet.

A very clear signal indeed. Not only is the ECB prepared to take the refi rate to the zero-bound, but they are even considering a negative deposit rate. On top of that, Praet warned, “The balance-sheet capacity of the central bank can also be used.” That’s a direct reference to QE, but to be even more explicit, Praet added, “This includes outright purchases.”

Imagine the implications for broad global money supply if the central bank of the worlds largest (combined) economy jumps into the QE pool with both feet, along with the BoJ, BoE and Fed who are already splashing around in absolutely unprecedented liquidity.

Man Who Predicted Gold Smash Tells Investors What’s Next

Posted: 13 Nov 2013 09:20 AM PST

Today the man who predicted the recent takedown in the gold market ahead of time spoke to King World News about what investors should expect next. William Kaye, who 25 years ago worked for Goldman Sachs in mergers and acquisitions, not only spoke about the ongoing war in gold, but he also shared with KWN a major catalyst that is coming in the gold market which will dramatically reverse the current trend. Below is what Kaye had to say in this fascinating and powerful interview.

This posting includes an audio/video/photo media file: Download Now

Crowdfunding for Computers that Can Smell

Posted: 13 Nov 2013 09:11 AM PST

Imagine having a magical crystal ball that lets you see into the future. Imagine knowing — with 100% certainty – that a specific event will come to pass.

That’s the strange circumstance I found myself in back in the winter of 2005.

You see, I just knew that Apple would launch a device that combined a mobile phone with a music player. I could feel it and see it as if it were right in front of me. And if consumer interest in this device was equal to that of the iPod, Apple’s revenues would rise like a hot air balloon.

…an amazing technology, a multibillion-dollar market and a company that is currently accepting investments. Should we write a check?

To benefit financially from this vision, I could have bought stock in Apple. But I felt my upside would have been limited: A single successful product launch doesn’t generally move a large-cap stock like Apple.

My best bet, I decided, was to find a small, publicly traded company that would have its world changed if Apple launched a mobile phone — for example, one of the companies that made their components. If I could find one that was still cheap, I could buy it and make out like a bandit.

I spent months and months researching Apple’s suppliers. I searched under every rock and every sea…

And finally, I found just the company I was looking for.

I’ll tell you more about it and how it changed my fortunes in a moment. But first I want to share with you my latest vision — my latest look into a crystal ball…

The vision I’m talking about relates to a privately held business. It’s called Aromyx.

Aromyx produces a technology that’s nothing short of revolutionary.

They’ve created a microchip that can detect, interpret and identify smells and tastes just like a human brain. For example, let’s say a team of chemists is attempting to create a fancy new perfume for a company like Chanel. They would put a drop of the new perfume onto an Aromyx chip, and automatically, magically, an image would appear on their computer screen — an “aromagraph” — representing the reaction of the human brain.

Based on the aromagraph, the chemists would see how the brain’s reaction to the scent was similar to, or different from, existing scents on the market and then make adjustments as needed.

The real-world applications of a technology like this — not just for fragrances, but for consumer packaged goods, foods and beverages — are enormous.

Currently, in order to test and create new products, companies spend roughly $37.5 billion every year on human panels. Basically, they recruit thousands and thousands of people to participate in focus groups in order to predict how the world will respond to a new product. That’s a time-intensive process, and costly!

Aromyx not only provides a faster and more accurate tool — but at $300 per chip, it creates both a cost-effective solution for its clients and a moneymaker for itself.

This type of technology is the future of consumer packaged goods development — at least that’s what my crystal ball says.

If the company can capture just 3% of the market, it’s a $1 billion business.

Aromyx is currently raising a round of capital from investors like you. You can see more about it on public fundraising platform AngelList.

So to sum up the opportunity: an amazing technology, a multibillion-dollar market and a company that is currently accepting investments. Should we write a check?

Not so fast! We know firsthand how easy it is to get excited about startup opportunities like this and make emotional decisions. That’s why we wrote The 10 Crowd Commandments, a free, easy-to-digest framework that helps you evaluate early-stage investment opportunity.

Let’s take a quick look at how Aromyx stacks up on the positive side of the Crowd Commandment ledger:

  • Market demand from paying customers: Although Aromyx’s product hasn’t yet launched, the senior vice president for chemical procurements from Procter & Gamble (owner of dozens of brands, including Tide detergent, Secret deodorant and Crest toothpaste) said he’d “buy thousands of these right now” if the chips were available
  • Straightforward business model: It costs $100 to make a chip, and they sell it for $300. After subtracting the normal costs to run the business, what remains is profit
  • Competition: While competition exists, Aromyx has over 29 legal patents — that will help them build defensibility
  • Strong management team: They’ve started and sold companies before.

However, our “Commandments” also give us reasons to be concerned:

  • While Aromyx has already received millions of dollars in government grants and funding, there aren’t any notable private investors involved — i.e., venture capitalists or angel investors who invest to earn a profit. As we like to say here at Crowdability, it’s always good to “be a follower” in deals like this. Following professional investors ensures that someone has negotiated competitive terms and done some serious due diligence
  • Another concern is that they’re raising $2 million, but they don’t say exactly what they’ll do with the funds. For example, will they build their team, sign up 10 new major customers and reach positive cash flow? If we invest today, what financial results should we expect? They don’t say! There isn’t a clear explanation in any of their materials.

So what should we do here?

Maybe my experience with the “Apple crystal ball” can be of some assistance…

As it turns out, I was right about Apple launching their mobile device. The iPhone has generated billions of dollars in value for Apple and its shareholders and changed the entire mobile landscape.

But the stock I was so bullish on — one of Apple’s suppliers — didn’t fare so well. The company was called PortalPlayer. I say “was” for a simple reason: The company is no longer publicly traded. Shortly before the iPhone was released, Apple announced that it would be switching to a new component manufacturer. It was “game over” for PortalPlayer, and “game over” for my investment, too.

Other than that my crystal ball seems to have been momentarily broken, what lessons can we learn from my failed investment?

Well, for one thing, even though I was extremely excited about PortalPlayer, I followed my playbook for early-stage investing — an early set of rules similar to The 10 Crowd Commandments. The most important rule I followed was this: Don’t commit too much of your capital to any one stock. Yes, despite my enthusiasm for PortalPlayer, I made only a small commitment to it. I was diversified.

You see, when it comes to investing in startups and early-stage technology companies, there’s no such thing as a sure thing. To protect yourself, you need to diversify, committing only small amounts of capital to speculative ideas like PortalPlayer — or to companies like Aromyx.

If you ultimately decide to invest in Aromyx, commit only a small amount of your available capital — and make sure to build a diversified startup portfolio by making many other early-stage investments too.

Speaking of which, there’s a new opportunity on AngelList that has us very excited — essentially, it’s a “mutual fund” for startups.

Regards,

Wayne Mulligan
for The Daily Reckoning

Ed. Note: The next great tech story is never far away. But knowing what they are, and which companies stand to profit the most, can be tricky. Enter Tomorrow in Review – a free service designed to help you navigate the volatile (and lucrative) tech sector. Every day, Tomorrow in Review gives you the tools you need to be at the forefront of the world’s most exciting tech stories – complete with at least 3 chances to learn about real, actionable profit opportunities, in every single issue. And it’s FREE! So what do you have to lose? Sign up for free right here.

Gold and Silver vs. Hope and Change. Place Your Bets!

Posted: 13 Nov 2013 08:48 AM PST

The BIG Perspective: Examine the following "Point & Figure" chart from Ron Rosen. This type of chart plots price on the "y" axis while the "x" axis shows time but without uniform distance between years. Read More...

Gold market expected to remain data-dependent

Posted: 13 Nov 2013 08:41 AM PST

“Price action is weak,” says Scotiabank, “with the metal registering 7 down days in the past 10 trading session.”

Read more….

Can’t-miss headlines: Silver uncertainty, China’s growing gold holdings and more

Posted: 13 Nov 2013 08:41 AM PST

News through the lens of metals & mining. Today, we look at what silver might do and what China seems to be doing, among other things.

Read more….

Ma’aden progressing well in bank finance deal talks – CEO

Posted: 13 Nov 2013 08:41 AM PST

The Saudi Arabian company also expects to raise its gold production to 500,000 ounces per year by 2017.

Read more….

China could match U.S. gold reserves inside 10 years – or earlier

Posted: 13 Nov 2013 08:41 AM PST

More analysis suggesting that China is building its gold reserves and at the current rate of growth could match the U.S. gold reserve position in ten years, but is this the whole story?

Read more….

Why gold prices don’t reflect fundamentals – Phillips Part 7

Posted: 13 Nov 2013 08:41 AM PST

Gold markets are inefficient, unreflective of fundamentals & understate the metal’s market value, writes Julian Phillips.

Read more….

ECB’s Praet: All Options on Table

Posted: 13 Nov 2013 07:55 AM PST

13-Nov (The Wall Street Journal) — The European Central Bank could adopt negative interest rates or purchase assets from banks if needed to lift inflation closer to its target, a top ECB official said, rebutting concerns that the central bank is running out of tools or is unwilling to use them.

“If our mandate is at risk we are going to take all the measures that we think we should take to fulfill that mandate. That’s a very clear signal,” ECB executive board member Peter Praet said in an interview Tuesday with The Wall Street Journal. Annual inflation in the euro zone slowed to 0.7% in October, far below the central bank’s target of just below 2% over the medium term.

He didn’t rule out what some analysts see as the strongest, and most controversial, option: purchases of assets from banks to reduce borrowing costs in the private sector. “The balance-sheet capacity of the central bank can also be used,” said Mr. Praet, whose views carry added weight as he also heads the ECB’s powerful economics division. “This includes outright purchases that any central bank can do.”

[source]

PG View: As the ECB moved ever-nearer the zero-bound, they’re already talking about extraordinary measures. Last week’s rate cut knocked the euro off two-year highs versus the dollar, but it started creeping back so it looks like Praet moved to take any wind out of the single currency’s sales pretty quickly.

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