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Monday, October 7, 2013

Gold World News Flash

Gold World News Flash


Is silver bullion running low in Toronto?

Posted: 06 Oct 2013 11:30 PM PDT

from nick540:

Gold and the Unemployment Rate

Posted: 06 Oct 2013 11:00 PM PDT

Bullion Vault

Owners Per Ounce of Silver and Gold at the Comex

Posted: 06 Oct 2013 07:30 PM PDT

from Jesse’s Café Américain:

For those who say they are influenced by COMEX statistics, there is a noticeable divergence between the availability of gold and silver for delivery there at these prices, especially when compared to historical trends and averages.

One of the non-COMEX factors that someone with the bigger picture view of things would note is that unlike gold, there is no great store of silver bullion in the hands of banks that can be leased out to backstop speculative shortages that might occur. So while the situation in silver may appear to be benign, in fact in many ways it is still a bit thin.

Read More @ Jesse’s Café Américain:

IS THE NEXT BEAR MARKET ABOUT TO BEGIN?

Posted: 06 Oct 2013 07:23 PM PDT

The stock market is finally starting to show signs that the bull market may be coming to an end. Before I go into the stock market though, I want to discuss the dollar, because I think currencies are going to be integrally tied to the topping process.

For the better part of the last five years a lower dollar has generally been positive for the stock market. However we are now five years into QE and I think we are at the point where it's important that the dollar hold its value. At this point I think the stock market is deathly afraid that the dollar is going to crack under five years of continual debasement. As many of you have probably noticed over the last several weeks stocks have been dropping along with the dollar.

We have some interesting currents at play in the currency markets at the moment. It's been my opinion for some time that the dollar would migrate its yearly cycle low from the spring to later in the fall (This will set up next year's yearly and three year cycle low to occur late in the year. This is generally when currency crisis occur). I think that process is now in play. For this to come to fruition the dollar needs to move below the February low sometime in the next two or three weeks. Keep in mind that other than a three year cycle low, the yearly cycle low is the most intense sell off of the year, and they don't generally terminate until it looks like the world is coming to an end. (We definitely haven't reached that point yet.)

I suspect the government shutdown and debt ceiling debacle are going to intensify the dollars yearly cycle low this year. This suggests that we are going to see a very aggressive and scary decline in the dollar index over the next 2-3 weeks.


I'm expecting the yearly cycle to bottom either on the debt ceiling resolution, or one day on either side of it as the market starts to sniff out a deal. At that point I think we're probably going to see a significant intermediate degree rally as the currency markets breath a sigh of relief. 

However within 1-2 months I also expect the currency markets to come to their senses and realize that nothing has changed and the dollar is going to continue to be debased, maybe even at a faster rate than before. At that point I think the dollar will roll over again and get busy moving down into next year's three year cycle low which should manifest as a moderately severe currency crisis around this same time next fall.

Now for some of the warning signs in the stock market. To begin with this is the first time in five years that the advance decline line has failed to follow the market to new highs.


In the next chart I have marked each intermediate cycle low with a blue arrow. You can see that the previous intermediate cycle ran quite long as it was stretched by QE 4 to 33 weeks. This is a full 11 weeks longer than a normal intermediate cycle duration. Often a long cycle like this is followed by a short cycle. Note that the last intermediate cycle had 4 complete daily cycles nested within it, I think there is a very good chance that the current intermediate cycle will only have two.


Considering that the current daily cycle is already on day 25 and due for a bottom somewhere between  day 35 and day 40, I think the odds are good stocks will follow the dollar down as it makes its yearly cycle low and complete an intermediate degree decline as we move into the debt ceiling deadline on October 17. Since intermediate declines need to be large enough to create true panic, this suggests that we could be in store for a particularly rough 2-3 weeks, as investors start locking in profits ahead of the uncertainty around the debt ceiling and the government shutdown. This process could spiral out of control if the dollar really starts to cratered hard.


The closer we get to that deadline with no resolution the more likely the market is to panic, and I wouldn't even rule out the possibility of some kind of semi-crash as we move into the final days up to the deadline as Wall Street let's Washington know in no uncertain terms they need to get their act together, and do it fast.

I'm even starting to entertain the idea that this will be the initial top of this five-year bull market, although I do expect the topping process to draw out the better part of a year as the Fed will without a doubt increase QE above and beyond its current level in the attempt to stave off the bear market.


For a more detailed explanation of what I think is coming I invite you to try a one week trial to the SMT premium newsletter and reference the current weekend report.

One week trial

ECONOMIC ARMAGEDDON & The Most Undervalued ASSETS on Earth – Jeff Nielson

Posted: 06 Oct 2013 07:17 PM PDT

Jeff Nielson from Bullion Bulls Canada join us for an in-depth precious metals and monetary Ponzi update. We discuss the absurdity of the CFTC declaration that there is no provable manipulation in the silver market, we discuss the near total monopoly of THE ONE BANK which controls nearly 40% of the worldwide economy – and we discuss the accelerating collapse of the Church of Scientology which is an excellent allegory for the near total collapse of confidence in the United States government and the monetary Ponzi scheme known as Wall Street and the Dollar.

$100 Paper Silver Lions

Posted: 06 Oct 2013 07:00 PM PDT

Jeffrey Lewis

Interview: Is silver a ticking time bomb?

Posted: 06 Oct 2013 05:00 PM PDT

The Real Asset Co

Gold Market Update

Posted: 06 Oct 2013 04:17 PM PDT

The reason for posting a new Gold Market update at this juncture is that we appear to be at an optimum 'buy spot', for gold, silver and Precious Metals ETFs and stocks, as both gold and silver have dropped back in recent weeks to mark out ... Read More...

Silver Market Update

Posted: 06 Oct 2013 04:15 PM PDT

The reason for posting a new Silver Market update at this juncture is that we appear to be at an optimum 'buy spot', for gold, silver and Precious Metals ETFs and stocks, as both gold and silver have dropped back in recent weeks to mark ... Read More...

Gold And The Real Change To Watch For

Posted: 06 Oct 2013 03:35 PM PDT

Submitted by Simon Black of Sovereign Man blog,

It takes a lot of courage to go against the crowd.

Whether in investing, or acknowledging that your country is heading towards an epic fiscal crisis, it isn’t easy to stand alone… especially when everyone else is betting the other way.

Have you ever noticed, for example, that investors are often only interested in buying some stock or asset when its price is going up?

It’s as if a rising stock price is somehow validation that everyone else thinks it’s a good investment too.

Of course, these types of situations often make the worst investments. If you buy when everyone else is piling in, you could very well be the last sucker to enter a crowded room before the music stops.

The opposite is also true. When an investment has cratered and the price has fallen through the floor, nobody really wants to buy.

Realistically, the opposite should be true. And gold is an interesting example of this.

After more than a decade of positive returns, many investors have abandoned their precious metals positions. The conventional wisdom says that gold is ‘finished’. After all, the dollar price is falling… so it must be a bad ‘investment’.

Others, however, are looking at where gold is right now, where it probably will be a few years from now, and thinking that it’s a hell of a bargain.

Azerbaijan’s State Oil Fund (SOFAZ) is in this group. The fund recently announced that they were increasing their gold holdings by 33% over the next year.

This is a big move for the $35 billion fund, and they join other sovereign wealth funds from Qatar to China, plus central banks in places like Turkey, Russia, Mongolia, and Kazakhstan, who are increasing their gold holdings.

This is a significant trend that is unfolding.

Right now, the United States is in a privileged position because of the dollar’s status as the primary reserve currency. Mr. Bernanke can print trillions of dollars, then export much of that new money overseas.

Few other nations would be able to get away with this. In Argentina, for example, the government has engaged in similar wanton monetary inflation.

But Argentine pesos are not accepted anywhere else in the world. All of those pesos remain at home… and this has created debilitating inflation bordering on a currency crisis.

The US gets to spread its dollars all over the world, thus pushing the negative inflationary effects onto foreign nations. From Sri Lanka to Botswana to Ukraine to Cambodia, I’ve seen it first hand with my own eyes.

Foreign nations have long trusted the United States to maintain a sound dollar. But for decades, and especially over the last several years, America has abused this privileged trust.

That’s why it’s coming to an end. It’s absurd to think that the rest of the world will just lay down and suffer, indefinitely, so that Americans can keep buying McMansions, flat screen TVs, and cruise missiles.

Everywhere you look there are signs of this happening.

Russia has recently agreed to sell oil to the Chinese, accepting renminbi as payment. Fortune 500 companies from McDonalds to Morgan Stanley have issued bonds denominated in Chinese renminbi. Even the London Stock Exchange now has a thriving renminbi bond business.

The gold story in Azerbaijan is just one more brick in the wall. But it underscores this growing theme of the end of the US dollar’s dominance– one of the most critical trends in the world today.

The Fed Is Going To Shock The World By Increasing QE

Posted: 06 Oct 2013 03:20 PM PDT

Dear CIGAs, Today one of the top economists in the world predicted that the Fed will shock the world by increasing QE.  He also discussed what all of this means for major markets around the world, including gold and silver.  Michael Pento, founder of Pento Portfolio Strategies, wrote the following exclusive piece for KWN.  By... Read more »

The post The Fed Is Going To Shock The World By Increasing QE appeared first on Jim Sinclair's Mineset.

What Did Congress Do to Gold Prices?

Posted: 06 Oct 2013 12:56 PM PDT

Sean Brodrick writes: The U.S. government is in crisis. After all, the government failed to pass a continuing resolution to fund government operations on Monday. The U.S. dollar fell. But many traders are left wondering, “If it’s such a crisis, why isn’t gold doing better?” The last time we had this scenario, in December 1995, gold moved higher. But this time, gold tanked. Seems weird, right?

These U.S. Gov’t Policies Ensure That An Economic Recovery Is Close to Impossible

Posted: 06 Oct 2013 09:45 AM PDT

Despite all you hear coming from the government's media megaphone, there is noUncle-Sam-227x300 economic recovery underway, nor can there be one. The policies in place ensure that one will not happen.

So writes Monty Pelerin (economicnoise.com) in edited excerpts from his original article* entitled The Country Is Over.
[The following article is presented by  Lorimer Wilson, editor of www.FinancialArticleSummariesToday.com and www.munKNEE.com and the FREE Market Intelligence Report newsletter (sample hereregister here) and may have been edited ([ ]), abridged (…) and/or reformatted (some sub-titles and bold/italics emphases) for the sake of clarity and brevity to ensure a fast and easy read. This paragraph must be included in any article re-posting to avoid copyright infringement.]

Pelerin goes on to say in further edited excerpts:

…An economic recovery…is closer to impossible if not impossible…[because,] in short, the nation has become an out-of-control welfare state that is rapidly destroying the incentives to work or create jobs. Government policies appear designed toward this end. One doesn't need a high IQ or  an advanced degree in economics to understand the problems.

Economics is not a top-down science as Keynesians and politicians want you to believe. You can throw as many Fed dollars into the system or devise innumerable government stimulus programs. These are all top-down. Economics is a bottom-up process that starts with individual decisions and behavior. Individuals respond to available choices and incentives. They act in their own self-interest not in the manner in which some government planner wants them to act. Top-down programs do not affect the incentives of the individual decision-makers.

  1. We raise the costs on those who work (higher taxes) and the businessmen who provide the jobs. One of the basic laws of human nature is that when you penalize something or make it less pleasant, people will want less of it. It is not a mystery why business is not hiring and the number of workers is declining. The return to both is declining as a result of government policies.
  2. We raise the rewards for not working. Another basic law of human behavior is that when you increase rewards for a particular kind of behavior, you will get more of it. It is not a mystery why more people are choosing the dole than ever before. Government has encouraged them to do by providing higher rewards.
  3. Add in the regime uncertainty associated with unstable or unpredictable laws and regulations and you have the perfect storm. There is no incentive to hire. Business hunkers down not knowing what is coming their way next. They understand they are targets of this Administration…

Why The Economy is Dying

  1. As government grows the private sector shrinks. As the private sector shrinks there are fewer goods and services produced (government produces no goods and few services). I believe it was Dick Armey who described this situation with the wagon analogy: there are more people riding in the wagon and fewer pulling the wagon. As the wagon becomes heavier, the remaining pullers must work harder to move it.
  2. The pullers must support the riders. Government does not support the riders or anyone else for that matter. Whatever government has it has taken from the pullers. Whatever it doles out it must get from taxes, borrowing or printing new money. Regardless of which means it uses, it is all coming from the pullers. They pay the borrowing back. They have less as a result of higher taxes. They are made poorer by the rising prices from the printing of money.
  3. As the burdens increase on the pullers and the benefits increase for the riders, more pullers decide to ride. The truly creative and talented can always make enough money to continue to work rather than ride. However, when their efforts can be expended in other countries that penalize them less, at some point they no longer pull the wagon. They leave the country to climes where they are treated better.
  4. Each increase in government spending means requires more money from the private sector. That means greater distortions in the incentive-disincentive calculus that produces fewer people pulling the wagon. Now fewer people must support more non-producers. Every time someone gets in the wagon, the burden on the productive sector increases. More must be extracted from a smaller group to serve the increasing riders.

That is what is happening in this country. If it is not reversed, the economy will stagnate and eventually implode. This conclusion is dependent upon nothing more than simple arithmetic. How bad is the imbalance today?…[It's so bad that,] for now, just stick your head in the sand and pretend all is good. Self-deception is now the only thing left for the entire insolvent entitlement-addicted world!

Is The Decline Inevitable?

Of course not. As Lawrence of Arabia stated: "Nothing is written."

The Economic Solution

The solution to solving the problem is quite simple for an economist. Merely reverse the process. Make it attractive for people to jump out of the wagon and begin pulling. For businesses, make it attractive for them to hire. Make it unattractive to be on the dole. Reverse the growth of government and you increase the size of the private sector. More capital is made available for productive activities rather than being squandered by government. Talent stops leaving the country when they are treated more favorably here, whether this be via lower taxes or less onerous regulatory burdens. Then, get government out of the way and let markets solve the problem.

The Political Barrier

For the political class, the solution borders on the impossible. Politicians have bribed the citizenry with goodies for votes. They have sold the notion that government is responsible for all good things. The economic solution runs counter to everything that politicians have peddled. Further, it reduces their power and ability to retain office, at least in a manner in which they are accustomed. It shrinks their perquisites. It shrinks their vote-buying ability. In short, it is virtually impossible for them to go along with such a solution.

Conclusion

What politicians thrive on is what created the current problems. Reversing this behavior is alien to them. They would not know how to behave under such conditions. Yet the economic solution is the only solution!

Do I expect politicians to change and save the country? No! Is it possible they could? Probably not, but "nothing is written."

[Editor's Note: The author's views and conclusions in the above article are unaltered and no personal comments have been included to maintain the integrity of the original post. Furthermore, the views, conclusions and any recommendations offered in this article are not to be construed as an endorsement of such by the editor.]

*http://www.economicnoise.com/2013/04/05/the-country-is-over/ (© 2013 Monty Pelerin’s World)

Related Articles:

1. Don't Believe the Lies – THIS Is the Economic Reality – Take a Look… Then Get Prepared

Don’t believe these big lies – the following charts illustrate just what IS reality. Take a look and then get prepared for when the —- hits the fan! Read More »

 2. Suppressed Wage Growth In U.S. Ensures Continuing Weak Economic Growth

With wage growth suppressed and consumers still driving over 70% of the nation’s GDP, weak economic growth should not be a surprise. Read More »

3. Talk of Jobs Coming Back Courtesy of the Fed is Ridiculous! Here's Why

Despite the preponderance of evidence that money printing doesn't create jobs, Bernanke and his Central Bank colleagues continue to perpetuate the myth that the recovery is just around the corner, as long as we continue to print money. It's complete and utter insanity as all it will accomplish is bankrupting the U.S. resulting in higher costs of living – and lower quality of life – for all of us. [Let me explain why I believe that is the case.] Read More »

4. This Gov't Chart Shows That There Is NO Economic Recovery

5 years into the official economic "recovery" the labor participation rate is still lower than when the recession was declared over in June 2009 by almost a percentage point. It is still over 4 percentage points lower than when the recession officially began. The Federal Reserve chart of employment as a percentage of working age adults proves the point that sometimes a picture is worth a thousand words – sometimes much more. Words: 388; Charts: 1 Read More »

 5. 5 Red Flags of Imminent Economic Collapse

These 5 red flags will give you anywhere from a few days to a few months of warning that things are about to change drastically…and well before those around you grasp the full extent of what is going on. This is hopefully a scenario that never happens as this will truly be the end of the world as you knew it. Read More »

Minor tidbits of good news, combined with manipulated and seasonally adjusted economic figures, are giving politicians worldwide reason for spreading their optimistic gospel of recovery that has nothing to do with reality. [They are nothing but] false hope and total misunderstanding of the real state of the world economy. Read More »

We have not seen so many financial trouble signs all come together at one time like this since just prior to the last major financial crisis in 2008.  It is almost as if a "perfect storm" is brewing, and a lot of the "smart money" has already gotten out of stocks and bonds.  Could it be possible that we are heading toward another nightmarish financial crisis? Read More »

The madmen who are responsible for the coming economic disaster continue to behave as if they can manage to avoid it.  Violating Einstein's definition of insanity, they continue to apply the same poison that caused the problem. These fools believe they can manage complexities they do not understand. The end is certain, only its timing is unknown, and, once interest rates begin to rise, and they will, it's game over so it begs the questions "How much longer this can possibly go on?" and "What will happen to the U.S. and the world when it does?" Read More »

There is one vitally important number that everyone needs to be watching right now, and it doesn't have anything to do with unemployment, inflation or housing.  If this number gets too high, it will collapse the entire U.S. financial system.  The number that I am talking about is the yield on 10 year U.S. Treasuries. Here's why. Words: 1161; Charts: 2 Read More »

12. Here's How to Jumpstart the U.S. Economy

Uncle-Sam-227x300

 

 

 

Below are 6 suggestions as to what the U.S. government could do to turn America's bloated failing economy around instead of just printing ever more money which time has shown does not work. Words: 360 Read More »

13. Talk of "Bright Future" for Real Estate Just a Bunch of Nonsense – Here's Why

Silver – QE4ever, POMO4ever, Nevermore4ever

Posted: 06 Oct 2013 05:51 AM PDT

The central bankers have no rudder, adrift in a sea of fiat, taking everybody with them. Witness Cyprus and Greece being forced to walk the plank. Those who choose to stay on this Ship of Fools will suffer the same fate, even worse as the growing panic emboldens banker reactions.

Unless one has become anesthetized to the proverbial handwriting on the wall, symptoms are teeming all around. Barack "Yes We Can" [more than double the debt] Obama told everyone, promised everyone that he would cut the deficit in half. What he did not say is cutting it in half would then be the measure by which it would multiply. Issuing fiat does one thing and one thing only: it robs everyone of whatever value they have. It is a hidden transfer of wealth from you to the government, plain and simple.

POMO, [Permanent Open Market Operations], with emphasis on Permanent, designed to maintain the illusion that stocks are in a healthy bull market, so all must be well…at least for the top 1%; for the rest, not so much. Everything the Federal Reserve does is an illusion, including its existence, but it has become the financial bully no one dares to challenge.

One of our favorite lines comes from Leonard Cohen's Anthem, "There is a crack in everything, that's how the light gets in." For all those in the Western world mired in the endless debt forced on by central bankers, silver is part of the light that gets in and provides an escape.

Some of the smartest people in the financial world are the Stackers. Bankers have been doing everything possible to squeeze the life out of Precious Metals, but those in the PM community are not in the least bit fooled by fiat money creation. Stackers understand there is no third-party risk owning the physical metal, and eventually price will adjust to reflect the massive distortions created by the Creatures From Jekyll Island.

While there have been projections for silver to reach $100 the oz, $200, even $300, it really does not matter. Whatever the price, it will justly reflect all the mishandling of the economy by the central bankers, and those who own and hold silver, and gold, will reap the benefits of their foresight learned from hindsight.

The day is coming when central bankers will lose total control, and the message to them will be clear as sound money is reestablished: Nevermore! 4ever!

A look at what the charts are saying, in the interim.

The timing for the end of the central banker's world as we regrettably know it will always be in doubt. Time weighs more against the Masters of Fiat than it has been in their favor for the brief time since the April 2011 highs. The fact that price rallied to $50 is evidence that bankers are on the losing end of this battle, and the correction that has been overly exaggerated to the downside is but a temporary respite, their own illusion of "victory" that is massively failing.

The gap breakout to the upside was seen as important when it happened, as we said at the time, [here, 4th chart]. The lower time frames show more important detail.

silver price weekly 4 october 2013 price

What appears to be more positive about how silver has been developing in its current TR, [Trading Range], is the fact that it is developing on top of the last TR. The upside breakout gap in August was just successfully retested in another attempt to push silver lower, yet price is showing some resiliency. The rally of the last 3 TDs has upper range closes shows buyers won the battle, but the decline in volume indicates it was a result more from a lack of sellers.

The failed probe lower, as it occurred further along the RHS, [Right Hand Side], of the TR also adds to the positive aspect of the its development. What we need to see from here is a test of the failed probe. The last 3 TDs may be that retest, and if so, what is also needed is a strong wide range rally on increased volume above resistance.

silver price daily 4 october 2013 price

The 90 minute chart shows a D/S bar, [Demand over Supply], which often acts as support, and price has held the lower level of that bar. There was a smaller S/D bar on 1 October, and it led to the recent failed probe. It is possible it is a probe to see if there were any appetite to take price lower. The fact that the gap held suggests not.

In the long run, silver is going higher, much, much higher. In the short run, anything can happen, but silver's ability to withstand selling assaults is growing. Getting long a proven retest of last week's low makes sense.

silver price intraday 4 october 2013 price

Shutdown, Debt Ceiling, and Prospects of Gold

Posted: 06 Oct 2013 04:51 AM PDT

This is a guest post from Profit Confidential, a site dedicated to bringing the real economic facts which are not told by the mainstream media.

People who support the idea of buying gold swear by its virtue of being a hedge against inflation. Another reason for investing in gold is that it is the 'safe haven' in times of geopolitical and economic insecurity. The current US shutdown has brought some jitters to investors; however, it hasn't been strong enough to create that 'safe haven' demand for gold that is so characteristic during periods of economic insecurity. Contrarily, on September 30, when the threat of the shutdown was looming large, gold prices took a tumble, along with the stock markets, to close in red.

gold price october 1st 2013 economy

(Image Courtesy: www.infomine.com)

Gold through Shutdown: Steep Decline & a Steady Recovery

As you can see from this chart, gold price tumbled from the levels of $1,330 per ounce to close at around 1,290 per ounce. This steep decline surprised many gold proponents, who were hopeful that gold will again become the "go-to" asset in the current political environment. Financial experts are of the view that while the shutdown might be 'breaking news' as far as the clash between Republicans and Democrats is considered, its significance in terms of its duration and its impact on the economy might not be far-reaching.

After shedding around 40 points on 30th September, gold prices recovered on Oct. 1 to reach the levels of $1,320 per ounce. Experts are of the view that investors have realized that the current shutdown might not have a big impact on the broader economy. However, the news that the government will be hitting the debt ceiling by Oct. 17 is something that can have serious repercussions on the economy. Most analysts believe that if the shutdown is stretched for around two weeks, and then the government is also not able to make a way out of the debt ceiling quagmire, the investor confidence in the US economy will go down. Gold proponents are of the view that a deadlock over a decision on increasing the debt ceiling might create a gold rally in the market. However, some financial experts are of the Republicans and Democrats might not take such a rigid stand when it comes to the debt ceiling debate, and they might arrive at a decision that gives boost to the investor confidence. This, the experts believe, will be detrimental to the prospects of gold in the near future.

The China Angle

While traders have been disappointed with the weak response of the gold prices to the US shutdown, the National Holidays in China until Oct. 7 have erased any hopes of any rally in the prices. China, along with India, is the largest consumer of gold, and it is home to frantic trading activity. National holidays have meant that the now, the entire focus is on the political situation in the US. The shutdown and the all-important Oct. 17 deadline for debt ceiling are important in the context of prospects of gold.

 

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