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Wednesday, September 18, 2013

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Gold World News Flash 2

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Columbus Gold shares surge on Nordgold deal

Posted: 18 Sep 2013 06:41 PM PDT

Nordgold snaps up majority option on Paul Isnard project in return for $30 million in expenditures.

Goldman Sachs recommends gold producers hedge their output

Posted: 18 Sep 2013 06:39 PM PDT

In addition to its recent falling gold price predictions, Goldman Sachs analysts are suggesting gold miners still profitable at current levels should look to hedge at least a part of their output.

Tapering could remove gold's upside - Ash

Posted: 18 Sep 2013 06:16 PM PDT

Conversely, if the US Fed doesn't announce any tapering, gold prices could shoot up as shorts run for cover.

Wash, Rinse, Repeat

Posted: 18 Sep 2013 12:19 PM PDT

That is basically what we got from the Fed today instead of the $10 billion cut in bond buying that the market had priced in. I mentioned yesterday that based on the very benign inflation environment, the Fed might just stand pat due to the recent lousy economic data. They did just that. Personally I think it was two factors which swayed them in this decision - more on that later.

Stocks loved it, bonds loved it and gold loved it. The Dollar hated it. What else is new?

It is perverse in the sense that interest rates on the long end of the curve had been steadily moving higher for about 3 months now based on the increasing expectations of a tapering move by the Fed. We have been paying close attention to the yield on the Ten Year Treasury and have noted that it just missed hitting the 3% level at the beginning of this month.

Here is what I consider perverse about this... consider this... the Fed starts some hawkish talk and begins to prepare the markets for a slowdown in the rate of its bond buying program. The market reacts to this apparent change in policy by bidding up interest rates. This then results in mortgage rates moving higher.

The Fed, obviously alarmed at what they believe will negatively impact the very fragile real estate market then backs away from any tapering plans whatsoever sending interest rates on the Ten Year back down to the 2.75% level where they are currently sitting as I type these comments.

Where does this leave us? Quite frankly, in an enormous mess the way I see it. The Fed does not have the luxury of doing a surprise sneak-attack on the markets without preparing them for a tapering of the bond buying program. For the Fed to announce out of the clear blue sky, without the least bit of warning, that it was going to scale back its bond buying program, would send the stock market into convulsions and rattle the entire interest rate market as well as the currency markets.

They therefore must prep the markets, plowing the ground and giving the markets time to come to terms with any change in monetary policy in order to avoid chaotic market reactions. Here is the catch however - in giving the markets time to prepare, the market response is to sell bonds along the long end of the yield curve thus resulting in rising long term rates. This negatively impacts the real estate market and borrowing in general as the rotten employment picture prevents many people from otherwise qualifying for loans that they might have previously been able to had rates remained at lower levels.

Then the times comes for the Fed to make the actual announcement that they have spent so much effort prepping the markets for only to realize that these same markets have pre-empted any need for the Fed to act. The result? - the Fed does nothing whatsoever!

 In short, I can easily envision a scenario in which the Fed is completely trapped unable to do anything at all well into the foreseeable future. It is going to take STRUCTURAL REFORMS to improve the job market and as long as the current Administration is in power, I do not see that happening any time soon. Thus the status quo continues and goes on and on and on...

In regards to gold, it is scooting higher as a large number of shorts were forced out with today's surprise move by the Fed. It did take out that overhead resistance at $1330 which is a positive and is also now trading above $1350, another resistance level. There is $1360 which I am watching right above where it is currently trading to see how it handles that. Beyond that $1380 is the next target.

The key to gold will be whether or not the speculative world believes that the continuation of the Fed's QE4 policy unabated will generate any long-anticipated inflation. Obviously the bond market does not expect any or bonds would not be moving sharply higher. Thus far inflation has been tame. It is going to take a change in perceptions in that regard to bring in a brand new wave of hot fund money into gold as well as the rest of the commodity complex.

The ironic thing about seeing crude oil and especially gasoline rallying sharply higher today is that rising energy prices, while inflationary in their own right, also have recently tended to be seen more as a brake or drag on economic activity and consumer spending and thus are seen as factors leading to a slowdown in growth rather than a catalyst for higher inflation. If specs begin piling into the energy markets based solely on the lack of tightening from the Fed, then these specs may short-circuit any hopes that the Fed has that its latest NON-MOVE will be stimulatory in nature.

Herding cats will prove easier than herding these destructive hedge funds.

Oh what a tangled web the Fed has created!

Dollar Outlook: #Taper, #Yellen, #GermanElections

Posted: 18 Sep 2013 12:17 PM PDT

Why are the markets so excited that the smartest guy in the room takes his name out of the running for the (second?) most powerful job in the world? With Larry Summers no longer holding back the markets, what's next for the dollar, currencies and gold?


(Click to enlarge)

While pundits debated what a Summers Fed would have looked like, the truth is that little was known about his views on monetary policy. Our own take was that given his highly political disposition, he may be more effective in his current role where he can call President Obama any time to offer his advice. Yet the markets rallied because uncertainty is reduced: with Janet Yellen as the front-runner, the odds of continued ultra-loose monetary policy has increased. Indeed, aside from a rallying stock market, the more noteworthy reaction is a global bond rally, especially on short to medium term maturities.

Highland Gold first-half net profit down almost 65%

Posted: 18 Sep 2013 12:16 PM PDT

The company said Wednesday its first-half net profit fell by almost 65% year on year to $17 million due to a steep fall in the gold price.

On manipulation in the gold and silver markets

Posted: 18 Sep 2013 12:10 PM PDT

An interesting commentary on manipulation in all financial sectors with a focus on the gold and silver markets.

Dissecting gold's recent fall - futures knock, physical holds

Posted: 18 Sep 2013 12:09 PM PDT

David Levenstein argues the new US Fed chairperson won't be a stabilising force and will erode confidence in the dollar, to gold's benefit.

Coming To a Head

Posted: 18 Sep 2013 12:00 PM PDT

There are several events, big events that are directly in front of the financial markets.  Of course we still have to hear from the Fed today and my guess is that we do get an announcement of some sort of minor tapering of QE.  As I’ve said before, I don’t think the markets will react positively after any knee jerk reactions, especially in the credit markets.  I don’t think any real tapering can last more than a month without the financial markets going spastic which will lead to Bernanke coming forward with “I was just kidding, here comes QE 5 to save the day.”

The upcoming events include budget talks (when was the last time we actually had a budget?), debt ceiling debate and the Republicans will try to defund Obamacare as part or parcel of the deals.  We are maybe 2 weeks out from the “sequester” possibly turning into a government shutdown.  Today President Obama is speaking on these subjects and says, “I will not let the ‘full faith and credit of the United States’ to be negotiated over or endangered by the Republicans.”  I see all of this as “coming to a head,” collectively and pretty much all at once.  All of these negotiations will probably be occurring with the backdrop of the Fed (overtly at least) with less monetization by the Fed (what they are actually doing behind the scenes may be another thing altogether as the monetization may actually increase).

One other “backdrop” which has gotten almost no Western press at all is the energy deal recently concluded between Russia and China.   In fact, I did not hear anything about this deal last week at all and it purportedly occurred on Sept. 6th.  Basically, Russia is offering as much energy as China needs while China has logistically set up a payments system that would allow oil and gas to be purchased using Yuan as payment.  This has HUGE ramifications as potential demand of Gulf oil could diminish and demand for dollars will definitely drop…at a time that demand is already dropping as illustrated yesterday by the TIC report showing the 4th month in a row of capital outflows.

Interestingly the TIC report showed that the only true foreign buyer of U.S. Treasuries were the Japanese.  When I say “interestingly” I am alluding to the fact that the Japanese are printing and monetizing comparably far more than the U.S. is.  Think about this for a moment, none of the countries who were buyers in the past are buying now, they are liquidating.  The ONLY buyer of any size is Japan which is printing money out of thin air at a rate greater than anyone else on the planet.  So, the biggest debtor in the world is borrowing from a nation with 240% debt to GDP, which is printing money to pay interest, printing money to purchase their own bonds and now printing money to buy U.S. Treasuries.  They purchased over $52 billion worth of Treasuries in one month…please do the math on this one, annualized this is over $600 billion! …truly insane!  Oh, and even with this $52 billion inflow the net was an OUTFLOW!

I will leave you with a chart that illustrates just how dirt cheap gold currently is:

US Debt Limit Gold

Historically the price of gold in U.S. dollars has tracked very closely to the rise in our debt ceiling as a formula between how much gold we “purportedly” have compared to the total debt ceiling.  Gold has since the beginnings of QE 4 broken away and far under this ratio.  Looking at the chart tells me that one of two things will occur to restore the past relationship.  Either the debt ceiling is lowered by some 30% (which would mean paying down debt which we have not done in 53 years since 1960) OR the price of gold will rise well above $1,900 …and then some to account for the raising of the ceiling.  As a side note, if this chart has any validity then what the price of gold should be were Congress to do away with the debt ceiling and make it “unlimited?” …Unlimited is a lot!

No matter what the outcome of today’s Fed meeting or the upcoming circus events in Washington, gold is now grossly undervalued.  A run up to and beyond the old highs of $1,900 is warranted and in my opinion will happen VERY quickly when it begins.  Do not be fooled or shaken from your positions no matter what volatility is forced upon gold and silver.  Know the true value and refuse to be shaken.Similar Posts:

Corvus Gold Demonstrates Continuity with Continued Expansion of the Yellowjacket High-Grade Zone,

Posted: 18 Sep 2013 11:37 AM PDT

NB-13-353 - 44 metres @ 2.3 g/t Gold   (including 7.9 metres of 10.6 g/t Gold)
NB-13-354 - 36 metres @ 3.5 g/t Gold   (including 11.7 metres of 9.5 g/t Gold)
NB-13-355 - 24 metres @ 3.5 g/t Gold   (including 12.0 metres of 6.7 g/t Gold)

Vancouver, B.C., Corvus Gold Inc. ("Corvus" or the "Company") – (TSX: KOR, OTCQX: CORVF) announces assay results from five core holes and two reverse circulation (RC) holes in the Yellowjacket Zone at the North Bullfrog Project, Nevada.  The new drill results demonstrate the continuity of broad, high-grade mineralization on a new western structural zone where veining is even more intensely developed.  These holes continue to highlight the potential of expanding the high-grade mineralization to the west and to the north and south, thereby potentially significantly enhancing and expanding the possible "starter pit" area of the deposit.

The high-grade intercepts in NB-13-353, 354 and 355, approximately 100 metres north of hole 347 (NR13-21, Sept. 5, 2013) and 350 metres north of hole 138 (NR12-20, July 24, 2012) show the significant continuity of veining and high-grade mineralization over broad widths on a new more NW-trending strand of the Yellowjacket fault system (Figure 1).  This zone is characterized by broad (50 to 100 metres wide) zones of stockwork veining around a central (5-20 metre wide), high-grade banded vein, a style that is similar to the mineralization previously mined by Barrick in the open pit and underground workings at the Bullfrog Mine, 10 kilometres to the south.  Mineralization consists of multistage epithermal quartz veins with native gold and silver sulphides.  Similar veining has been intercepted in 6 holes with pending assays, thus extending the system over 100 metres more to the north and remaining open to the north and at depth.  In addition, other broad zones of veining have been intersected in ongoing RC resource expansion drilling west of Yellowjacket, suggesting further high-grade potential within and below the current oxide deposit (planned to be followed up with core drilling later this fall).

In addition to the high-grade vein mineralization found in core drilling, RC hole NB-13-232 intercepted 248 metres averaging 0.4 g/t gold starting from 18 metres below the surface.  This includes four broad intervals averaging greater than 0.5 g/t gold, significantly expanding the resource growth potential to the north (Table 1).  RC hole NB-13-231, drilled south of 232 and off the Yellowjacket structural trend, encountered 100 metres @ 0.24 g/t gold, which is typical for the main Sierra Blanca deposit to the south and shows the continuity of mineralization into this area (which is not in the existing estimated resource).

Core hole NB-13-349 was drilled on the eastern side of the Yellowjacket Zone along the Liberator structure and continues to expand the higher grade northern extension of the potential bulk tonnage zone with 81 metres @ 0.4 g/t gold.  Hole NB-13-351, drilled to test the far northern extent of the Liberator structure, encountered typical disseminated, low-grade mineralization indicating continued potential to the north.  This hole also intersected one zone of higher-grade silver suggesting Yellowjacket style high-grade mineralization potential exists in this area.

Jeff Pontius, Chief Executive Officer, states: "The continued positive results from the Yellowjacket Zone drilling are highly encouraging.  The addition of a higher grade starter pit to the current PEA could have a dramatic impact on the project economics.  We see significant potential to expand this type of high-grade mineralization well beyond the current area drilled.  With each new high-grade vein intersection in the Yellowjacket Zone, we are building strong support for a major new multi-million ounce, Nevada high-grade discovery with a scale and grade potential similar to the historic Bullfrog mine to the south."


Figure 1: Location of Yellowjacket drill holes. Red collars and traces indicate holes reported in this press release. Blue indicates assays are pending. Black indicates previously released results.
For a more general location of Yellowjacket see Figure 2.

Table 1: Significant intercepts* from recent core holes at Yellowjacket.

Hole ID
From (metres)
To (metres)
Interval (metres)
Gold (g/t)
Silver (g/t)
Comments
NB-13-231
62.5
163.1
100.6
0.24
1.31
Az: 360 Incl: 90
Including
89.9
147.8
57.9
0.29
1.36
NB-13-231
175.3
192.0
16.8
0.43
1.73
NB-13-232
18.3
266.7
248.4
0.37
1.83
Az: 360 Incl: 90
Including
93.0
152.4
59.4
0.50
2.07
Including
114.3
134.1
19.8
0.90
2.53
Including
214.9
259.1
44.2
0.67
3.53
Including
240.8
253.0
12.2
0.97
6.59
NB-13-349
93.0
173.7
80.8
0.40
0.89
Az: 270 Incl: -50
Including
137.2
173.7
36.6
0.54
1.00
NB-13-351
10.1
11.6
1.5
0.01
29.00
Az: 215 Incl: -50
69.0
130.4
61.4
0.19
1.04
NB-13-353
98.3
142.6
44.2
2.28
**
Az: 108 Incl: -45
Including
115.7
133.6
18.0
5.28
Including
115.7
123.5
7.9
10.57
NB-13-354
112.8
149.0
36.2
3.52
**
Az: 108 Incl: -60
Including
114.7
145.7
31.0
4.04
Including
130.5
142.3
11.7
9.54
Including
131.7
134.3
2.6
27.60
NB-13-355
86.1
109.8
23.7
3.54
**
Az: 90 Incl: -45
Including
96.7
108.7
12.0
6.73
Including
96.7
102.1
5.4
13.14

*Intercepts are approximate true width and calculated with 0.1g/t cutoff and up to 3.0 metres of internal waste.
** Silver assays are pending


Figure 2: Generalized location of Yellowjacket in the North Bullfrog
project area.
Significant mineralized faults are shown in dark red.

About the North Bullfrog Project, Nevada

Corvus controls 100% of its North Bullfrog Project, which covers approximately 70 km² in southern Nevada just north of the historic Bullfrog gold mine formerly operated by Barrick Gold Corporation.  The property package is made up of a number of leased patented federal mining claims and 758 federal unpatented mining claims.  The project has excellent infrastructure, being adjacent to a major highway and power corridor.  The Company's independent consultants completed a robust positive Preliminary Economic Assessment on the existing resource in June 2013.

The project currently includes numerous prospective gold targets with four (Mayflower, Sierra Blanca, Jolly Jane and Connection) containing an estimated oxidized Indicated Resource of 36.7 Mt at an average grade of 0.26 g/t gold for 308,000 ounces of gold and an oxidized Inferred Resource of 220.4 Mt at 0.18 g/t gold for 1,289,000 ounces of gold (both at a 0.1 g/t gold cutoff), with appreciable silver credits.  Unoxidized Inferred mineral resources are 221.6 Mt at 0.19 g/t for 1,361,000 ounces of gold (at a 0.1 g/t gold cutoff).

Mineralization occurs in two primary forms: (1) broad stratabound bulk-tonnage gold zones such as the Sierra Blanca and Jolly Jane systems; and (2) moderately thick zones of high-grade gold and silver mineralization hosted by structural zones with breccias and quartz-sulphide vein stockworks such as the Mayflower and Yellowjacket targets.  The Company is actively pursuing both types of mineralization.

A video of the North Bullfrog project showing location, infrastructure access and 2010 winter drilling is available on the Company's website athttp://www.corvusgold.com/investors/video/.  For details with respect to the assumptions underlying the current resource estimate and preliminary economic analysis, see the technical report entitled "Technical Report and Preliminary Economic Assessment for the North Bullfrog Project, Bullfrog Mining District, Nye County, Nevada" dated June 4, 2013 and available under the Company's profile at www.sedar.com.

Qualified Person and Quality Control/Quality Assurance

Jeffrey A. Pontius (CPG 11044), a qualified person as defined by National Instrument 43-101, has supervised the preparation of the scientific and technical information (other than the resource estimate) that form the basis for this news release and has approved the disclosure herein.  Mr. Pontius is not independent of Corvus, as he is the CEO and holds common shares and incentive stock options.

Mr. Gary Giroux, M.Sc., P. Eng (B.C.), a consulting geological engineer employed by Giroux Consultants Ltd., has acted as the Qualified Person, as defined in NI 43-101, for the Giroux Consultants Ltd. mineral resource estimate.  He has over 30 years of experience in all stages of mineral exploration, development and production.  Mr. Giroux specializes in computer applications in ore reserve estimation, and has consulted both nationally and internationally in this field.  He has authored many papers on geostatistics and ore reserve estimation and has practiced as a Geological Engineer since 1970 and provided geostatistical services to the industry since 1976.  Both Mr. Giroux and Giroux Consultants Ltd. are independent of the Company under NI 43-101.

The work program at North Bullfrog was designed and supervised by Russell Myers (CPG 11433), President of Corvus, and Mark Reischman, Corvus Nevada Exploration Manager, who are responsible for all aspects of the work, including the quality control/quality assurance program.  On-site personnel at the project log and track all samples prior to sealing and shipping. Quality control is monitored by the insertion of blind certified standard reference materials and blanks into each sample shipment.  All resource sample shipments are sealed and shipped to ALS Chemex in Reno, Nevada, for preparation and then on to ALS Chemex in Reno, Nevada, or Vancouver, B.C., for assaying.  ALS Chemex's quality system complies with the requirements for the International Standards ISO 9001:2000 and ISO 17025:1999.  Analytical accuracy and precision are monitored by the analysis of reagent blanks, reference material and replicate samples.  Finally, representative blind duplicate samples are forwarded to ALS Chemex and an ISO compliant third party laboratory for additional quality control.

About Corvus Gold Inc.

Corvus Gold Inc. is a resource exploration company, focused in Nevada and Alaska, which controls a number of exploration projects representing a spectrum of early-stage to advanced gold projects.  Corvus is focused on advancing its 100% owned Nevada, North Bullfrog project towards a potential development decision and continuing to explore for new major gold discoveries. Corvus is committed to building shareholder value through new discoveries and leveraging noncore assets via partner funded exploration work into carried and or royalty interests that provide shareholders with exposure to gold production.

On behalf of
Corvus Gold Inc.

(signed) Jeffrey A. Pontius
Jeffrey A. Pontius,
Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

Contact Information:
Ryan Ko
Investor Relations
Email: info@corvusgold.com
Phone: 1-888-770-7488 (toll free) or (604) 638-3246 / Fax: (604) 408-7499

Cautionary Note Regarding Forward-Looking Statements

This press release contains forward-looking statements and forward-looking information (collectively, "forward-looking statements") within the meaning of applicable Canadian and US securities legislation.  All statements, other

Volcan’s two new silver projects to raise 2014 output

Posted: 18 Sep 2013 11:33 AM PDT

The Peruvian miner expects its two new silver projects to start production early 2014 and add 8 million ounces to its current output.

Watch Bernanke’s Press Conference LIVE

Posted: 18 Sep 2013 11:25 AM PDT

Watch Bernanke's Press Conference LIVE

With QE∞ now confirmed and the metals exploding out of their recent decline, Watch Bernanke’s FOMC Press Conference LIVE at 2:30pm EST below:   Live streaming video by Ustream   Silver Bullet Silver Shield Collection at SDBullion!

The post Watch Bernanke’s Press Conference LIVE appeared first on Silver Doctors.

USGS Show Gold Mine Supply Dropping Every Single Month In 2013

Posted: 18 Sep 2013 11:12 AM PDT

Introduction

Every month the United States Geological Survey (USGS) releases reports on the production, use, imports, and exports of most important minerals to U.S. industry and security. These reports are full of important information for investors focused on minerals (in our case precious metals) and they can be found on the USGS website.

For this article we will focus on U.S. gold mine production and examine what has been happening with U.S. gold mine production. Obviously the U.S. represents only a segment of world gold mine production, but it is the third largest gold producer and many of the trends we find in U.S. gold production are also occurring in countries around the world.

First let U.S. discuss the importance of mine production to gold supply and demand because this is an issue that is misunderstood by many investors in the gold industry.

QE∞! No Fed Taper! Gold & Silver Go Vertical!

Posted: 18 Sep 2013 11:06 AM PDT

  • QE∞! No Fed Taper!
  • Fed to continue QE at $85 billion/month

Why POTUS Allowed Bailouts Without Indictments

Posted: 18 Sep 2013 11:06 AM PDT

In November 2008, President Obama was elected, and he was sworn in January 2009. The country was promised change and reform. Recently two democrats close to the top of President Obama's administration made excuses to me for the lack of financial reform in the United States. Their separately related versions were remarkably similar, so similar they seemed scripted:

The administration made a bargain, and I'm not sure it was the right decision. The world was teetering on the edge of collapse. There was a crisis of confidence. There would have been unimaginable consequences. So bad even your imagination can't handle the truth?  Read More…

Gold Price in India: Strong Support Zone Reached. Whats Next?

Posted: 18 Sep 2013 11:05 AM PDT

SunshineProfits

QE∞! No Fed Taper!

Posted: 18 Sep 2013 11:02 AM PDT

QE∞! No Fed Taper!

QE∞! No Fed Taper! Interest rates to remain at zero Gold & silver go vertical! Silver up $1, gold up $50 and spiking! Full FOMC QE∞ statement below:       Press Release Release Date: September 18, 2013 For immediate release Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in July suggests that economic [...]

The post QE∞! No Fed Taper! appeared first on Silver Doctors.

Five Years After Lehman, It's Business As Usual On Wall Street

Posted: 18 Sep 2013 10:52 AM PDT

This week we will reach the fifth anniversary of the Fall of Lehman Brothers and the near collapse of the financial system.

Unfortunately, despite being on the brink of catastrophe and the destruction of the retirement savings of millions of American workers, it's business as usual on Wall Street. At the Big Banks responsible for the crisis, bonuses are up, stock prices are soaring and pinstripe suits - rather than orange prison jumpers - remain the rage.

Following the collapse of the 2000 tech bubble and Enron, the Justice Department's Corporate Task Force rang up 1,300 corporate fraud convictions, including the conviction of almost 400 CEOs and other high level executives.

What does the current DOJ and Securities and Exchange Commission have to show for their enforcement efforts following the financial crisis?

A few big fines against some of the banks, conveniently charged back to shareholders, a civil not criminal

Rise in customs duty on gold jewelry a logical step, say Indian jewelers

Posted: 18 Sep 2013 10:43 AM PDT

The Indian jewelers have hailed the government decision to increase the import duty on gold jewelry from 10% to 15%. According to them, the move was expected and overdue.

New Chinese Exchange-Traded Products Poised to Boost Gold Demand

Posted: 18 Sep 2013 10:20 AM PDT

By Justin Spittler, Hard Assets Alliance Analyst

After speculation that the US Federal Reserve would rein in its asset-purchasing program earlier than anticipated, Western investors began exiting gold-back exchanged-traded funds (ETFs) in record numbers, highlighted by $8.7 billion in net outflows during April.

While the languishing paper-gold market has many declaring the gold trade dead, demand for bullion has never been greater, as buyers have focused on the big picture that includes endemic debt levels and unsustainable money-printing schemes. This long-term investment approach is most prevalent in the Eastern world, where India and China, the world’s two largest consumers of gold, are pouncing on the opportunity to accumulate gold at bargain prices.

Endless ink has been written on the disconnect between the paper and physical gold markets, yet it is a recently captured image courtesy of China Daily that conveys everything that needs to be said about this phenomenon.

Chinese Gold Buyers physical market

In a scene reminiscent of frenzied shoppers on Black Friday, approximately 10,000 Chinese consumers gathered outside of a jewelry store in Jinan city for the opportunity to scoop up gold products at sharp discounts, after speculation in the West helped shave roughly a quarter off the price of gold.

The numbers coming out of China tell a similar story. Chow Tai Fook—the world’s largest jeweler in terms of market capitalization—reported a 63% spike in sales during the second quarter.

Chinese Investment Demand for Gold Taking Off

While China’s love affair with gold jewelry burns as bright as ever, more and more Chinese are flocking to the yellow metal as a hedge against currency devaluation just as inflation begins to rear its ugly head after decades of artificially stimulated growth.

According to the World Gold Council (WGC), Chinese coin and bar demand jumped 22% during the first three months of 2013 to a quarterly record of 109.5 tonnes, or more than twice the five-year quarterly average of 43.8 tonnes. Demand really skyrocketed following the massive sell-off of Western gold funds as China imported between 160 and 170 tonnes in April alone. By year-end, the WGC projects that net Chinese imports could eclipse 880 tonnes.

Chinese Buying Frenzy Leads to Shortages and Sky-High Premiums

With pent-up demand swelling, Chinese investors will soon have a new avenue to invest in gold, as the Chinese Securities Regulatory Commission recently approved China’s first two gold-backed exchange-traded products (ETPs), which will be introduced by HuaAn Asset Management Company and Guotai Asset Management Company. Both yuan-denominated gold funds will be listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange (SHCOMP). However, due to stringent regulations, the products will not buy and store bullion on behalf of shareholders, as the SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) does; instead the funds will mirror the domestic spot price by purchasing futures contracts on the Shanghai Gold Exchange.

Though merely paper investments, the funds will offer convenient exposure to gold as well as an affordable alternative to price-sensitive buyers facing hefty premiums on physical product. Investors with long-term horizons, however, will likely continue to own physical gold due to the superior security it affords.

At this point, the particulars for each fund are still being sorted out, though it is reported that HuaAn is seeking to raise between 2 billion and 3 billion yuan ($326-$489 million) during its initial offering—pennies compared to the more than $60 billion of bullion held by GLD.

Certainly, these new products will provide the Chinese investor with another option for adding gold to their portfolios, since restrictions limit Chinese investors from buying international gold ETFs. What remains to be seen is how many investors will sever their longstanding relationship with physical gold for paper instruments.

In any case, the announcement of these two new gold funds represents the latest in a steady stream of bullish signals to emerge from China lately. Still, it is important to recognize that physical bullion will continue to drive the international gold market due to the fact that ETF holdings represent just 1% of the entire 175,000 tonnes of the above-ground gold stock. Though paper markets have demonstrated an ability to sway the gold price, the market for bullion will decide gold’s fate over the long term.

Hard Assets Alliance: A Revolutionary New Way to Buy, Store, and Sell Your Physical Gold and Silver. Register today for a Hard Assets Alliance account and claim free storage through 2013. Click here.

Median Household Income Has Fallen For FIVE YEARS IN A ROW

Posted: 18 Sep 2013 10:00 AM PDT

Median Household Income Has Fallen For FIVE YEARS IN A ROW

If the economy is getting better, then why do incomes keep falling?  According to a shocking new report that was just released by the U.S. Census Bureau, median household income (adjusted for inflation) has declined for five years in a row.  This has happened even though the federal government has been borrowing and spending money [...]

The post Median Household Income Has Fallen For FIVE YEARS IN A ROW appeared first on Silver Doctors.

Gold "fierce" if Fed surprises, investment banks urge sell as traders spooked

Posted: 18 Sep 2013 09:47 AM PDT

The wholesale price of gold fell below $1,300 for the first time in six weeks Wednesday morning in Asia, as traders in all markets awaited today's U.S. Fed announcement on QE tapering.

Gold and the Fed –- what if...

Posted: 18 Sep 2013 09:41 AM PDT

In my previous article I focused on what would be the likely outcome of limiting the QE program on several key markets (gold, real estate, stocks and bonds). Today, we will provide you with an analogous analysis for a completely different scenario.

Is Bernanke about to destroy the gold investment market?

Posted: 18 Sep 2013 09:25 AM PDT

Later this afternoon the Federal Reserve's FOMC is widely expected to announce tapering of QE. Many analysts have stated that should QE be tapered then the gold bull market will almost certainly be over.

Gold rush cometh in Japan: ¥1 quadrillion national debt to bankrupt

Posted: 18 Sep 2013 09:18 AM PDT

Japan is set to see gold demand soar in the coming months because of a planned sales tax, concerns about the solvency of the government and a continuing devaluation of the yen.

The Most Important Interview You’ll Ever See on Gold?

Posted: 18 Sep 2013 09:00 AM PDT

The Most Important Interview You'll Ever See on Gold?

Dan Popescu, a global markets strategist breaks down what’s going on with gold, pulling back the curtain on how he sees a potential explosive move with gold at some point soon.   Popescu discusses China’s plans and intentions in the gold market.  He states that China is encouraging their citizens to purchase gold which flies in [...]

The post The Most Important Interview You’ll Ever See on Gold? appeared first on Silver Doctors.

Interest rates, bubbles and bricks and mortar

Posted: 18 Sep 2013 08:41 AM PDT

Many think that interest rates will increase sometime, leading to a significant fall in all asset prices. A version of this logic casts all markets as being overdue a collapse. Another school of opinion rides the wave and doesn't think too much.

Why the Fed Will Lose

Posted: 18 Sep 2013 08:39 AM PDT

When it comes to market manipulation, I'd argue that NO ONE has their finger pressed as firmly on its daily "pulse."  A handful of others may be tied with me on that count; but few – if any – spend as much time watching what TPTB are doing.  The main driver of my obsession is to empower myself that I am doing the right thing; and of course, to transmit such knowledge to friends, family, colleagues, and readers.  Consequently, we are better prepared to handle the upcoming financial Armageddon than more than 99% of the world's population.  The TRUTH shall certainly set us free; and in this case, it just may save our "financial lives."

It's still Tuesday morning, and Treasury bonds are higher in pre-market trading.  In fact, they have been goosed higher EVERY morning since the 10-year yield briefly touched the VERY KEY ROUND NUMBER of 3.0% two weeks ago.  In other words, the Fed's "QE" activities have now escalated to levels of desperation akin to the PPT's maniacal, daily support of the Dow and the Cartel's relentless suppression of PAPER gold and silver.  Heck, TPTB put on a "full-court press" yesterday; i.e., not only pushing T-bonds up sharply in pre-market trading, but recruiting every MSM lackey imaginable to write of how the withdrawal of "hawkish" Larry Summers was the primary factor behind the recent rate surge.  Sadly, by day's end Treasuries were routed; as has been the case in nearly ALL recent efforts to avert the inevitable end of the multi-decade bond bull market.  And by the way, since I started writing just 30 minutes ago, Treasuries have already lost half their gains.

Anyhow, the reason I bring this up is to demonstrate that on the eve of the Fed's inaugural "tapering" decision, they are working harder than EVER to push interest rates down.  In other words, the polar opposite mindset of an organization comfortable with the current level – and trajectory – of the Treasury and mortgage bond markets.  It doesn't take a rocket scientist to realize the Fed desperately wants to avoid tapering; as it KNOWS it cannot do so, for reasons I have discussed ad nauseum.  Ever since the Fed's CATASTROPHIC decision on June 19th to hint that it "might" taper QE if economic data indicated sufficient upside momentum, essentially EVERY FOMC member has publicly back-tracked – including Helicopter Ben himself, just three weeks later.

The FACT remains that even the BEA (Bureau of Economic Analysis) admits that half of 1H 2013 GDP contribution emanated from the housing sector – or offshoots thereof; and thus, given both mortgage applications and refinancing activity have plummeted to mid-2009 levels, it's safe to say that if accurately measured, 2H GDP would clearly depict recession – especially if REAL inflation data was utilized in the GDP "deflator"…

NAHB Index Graph

Irrespective of what accounting shenanigans are played by the BLS (Bureau of Labor Statistics), the fact remains that jobs are being shed, losses generated, and confidence weakened.  You know it, they know it, and the collapsing Labor Participation Rate will surely reflect it.  Throw in the fact that the Bank of International Settlements just warned that interest rate suppression has created credit excesses exceeding those of 2008, and you can see why the Fed is painted in a corner.  If they taper – even mildly – they will be sending a signal of reduced support for a market already under tremendous pressure, with essentially ZERO buyers.  Conversely, if they don't, they'll essentially admit to LYING – for the umpteenth time – about the mythical "recovery."  Call me crazy, but the potentially worst U.S. holiday shopping season since 2009 doesn't suggest "recovery" to me; or, for that matter, a 23-year low in European car sales.

Back to the title of today's article, the Fed's eventual loss of control of financial markets is all but a fait accompli.  As all fiat currency regimes are Ponzi Schemes by definition, it's only a matter of time before this one implodes under its own weight; either due to its sheer unwieldiness, or a simple loss in the fragile "confidence" holding it up.  I'd bet on the latter; but frankly, the two are so inter-related; it makes little difference either way.  The FACT remains that all such systems – 599, to be exact – have previously failed; and given the current version is the largest and most vulnerable, it will likely crash the most loudly – and TRAGICALLY.

Ironically, the catalyst for today's piece was none other than the Fed's former "mouthpiece" – John Hilsenrath of the Wall Street Journal; who I deem the former mouthpiece because he has been so consistently WRONG in his prognostications, it's difficult to believe anyone still takes him seriously.  Sure, the Fed had him write several "HAIL MARY" articles in the final hour of weak trading days; but aside from that, his "knowledge" of upcoming Fed action has been no better than the flip of a coin.  In other words, if the topic were "FOMC decisions," I'm not sure he could even win on Are You Smarter than a Fifth Grader?"

However, now that he has clearly cut most of his "cord" with the Fed, he is not only showing signs of intelligence; but perhaps, vengeance toward an organization that clearly used him, before throwing him out like smelly trash.  There is no doubting his skepticism in this article; in which he highlights the paradox that is the Fed's comical attempt to convince the masses that a significant, sustainable "recovery" on the horizon – as they have erroneously forecast for the past five years; and that accompanying it – amidst the world's most catastrophic debt and inflation problems EVER – will be record low interest rates!

Even the dumbed-down, bought-and-paid-for MSM has difficulty justifying the paradox that is historically low interest rates and the "SO-CALLED RECOVERY" that has stock indices trading at record nominal highs.  And spinning a yarn of "low inflation" is as dis in genuine as it is moronic; as the U.S. cost of living has NEVER been higher, while around the world, Fed-exported inflation is causing currency collapses, social unrest, and civil war.  Even the most "patriotic" Americans no longer believe government-published inflation or employment data; and thus, the heavily discredited – and despised – Fed will have an even more difficult time convincing the masses it has the situation under control.

For some time now, I have incessantly written of how higher rates – even marginally so – are NOT possible given the "IRREVERSIBLE, GLOBAL DEBT ADDICTION."  The recent implosion of housing, refinance, durable goods, retail sales, and consumer confidence data tell that story LOUD and CLEAR; and don't forget that since such data was published, rates have gone still higher.  However, equally ominous is the fact that higher rates render the odds of individual, corporate, municipal, and sovereign insolvency – and ultimately, bankruptcy – dramatically higher.  Honestly, it's just plain comical for the U.S. government – among others – to claim its account deficit is falling, when not only is overall economic activity slowing, but rates rising.  For example, just the published $17 trillion of national debt requires an additional $170 billion in annual debt service costs for each 1% increase in interest rates.  Throw in the $5 trillion of "off balance sheet" debt of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, and you're up to $220 billion of incremental, annual interest costs; and god forbid one should consider the roughly $200 trillion of "unfunded liabilities."

As it is, this year's reported decline in the budget deficit is due principally to accounting shenanigans utilized to "delay" the debt ceiling breach into mid-October; which, when it finally occurs, should yield an instantaneous debt surge of perhaps $300 billion.  And don't forget the outrageous payment of "dividends" from Fannie and Freddie to the Federal government – which simply make these government-owned entities even more insolvent.  In other words, "robbing Peter to pay Pau."  Moreover, now that the housing market has shifted into reverse, Fannie and Freddie's supposed "profits" will rapidly turn to losses.

In other words, the Fed CANNOT afford to stop PRINTING MONEY and MONETIZING Treasury and mortgage-backed bonds.  Even the slightest rate increase will torpedo any fleeting semblance of recovery; whilst a MAJOR rate surge would likely, instantaneously; send the ENTIRE WORLD into a 1930's style depression.  Only this time, without a gold standard to slow Central banks down, they'll turn up the printing presses and launch history's most virulent-ever HYPERINFLATION.

Darned if they do, darned if they don't; and particularly darned if they attempt to be "cute" by announcing a "tiny taper" with accompanying, uber-dovish language – per Jim Sinclair's sage words…

QE is a trap that once embarked upon cannot be stopped or even tapered. We are approaching the point of no return. 

To taper QE will open the cracks that have begun to show in the bull bond market of generations. 

To taper QE will turn business psychology as negative as indicators are now pointing.

To taper QE will end the bull market in equities. 

The try and restart QE will be totally futile in terms of markets. The point of no return is the point of losing control of markets, from currency to equities. The point of no return could easily be any day now.

The biggest mistake of the moment is that to taper is a meaningless event.

-jsmineset.com, September 16, 2013

As he suggests – and I have averred for months, the Fed could lose control of its market-rigging operations ANY DAY now.  The U.S. Treasury market holds the key to the ENTIRE GLOBAL ECONOMY; and if the Fed can't miraculously find a way to turn it back up, the logical conclusion of economic collapse will be shortly behind.  You can take it to your soon-to-be-insolvent bank!

 Similar Posts:

Collapse Is In Hindsight – It Is A Matter Of Time

Posted: 18 Sep 2013 08:15 AM PDT

As introduced over the summer, our research of 20 different cycle theories has indicated that as of 2013 serious turmoil will reign over markets, metals and money (courtesy: Gary Christenson). Every cycle theory we researched pointed to a collapse in the different financial assets, varying in degree and exact timeframe. The dolldrums are becoming louder. Think about this: either central banks will continue pumping money in the ailing banking system, or they start tapering. In both cases, it is an unsustainable and articial operations.

Several observers have commented recently about the near-term / mid-term outlook. The observations are quite unanimous: although the alleged economic experts and mainstream financial media pretend that things are “contained” in reality (under the hood) a mega crisis is boiling and is coming closer. 

Below “testimonials” confirm our view which we detailed in our piece Sorry, we the people are no machines. The main thesis in there was that our debt based economic and monetary system is reaching its natural limits. Read why and how. 

The U.S. stock market is near all-time highs, while politicians and economists are blathering about recovery, low inflation, and good timess.  To the extent we rely upon the fantasies of ever-increasing debt, money printing, and credit bubbles, we are vulnerable to financial collapses.  Perhaps a collapse is not imminent, but it would be foolish to ignore the possibility.  Consider what these writers have to say:

The Fantasy of Printing "Money" To Solve Problems

Bill Fleckenstein:  (link)

"Money-printing cannot solve problems.  It doesn't really give us much gross domestic product growth, as we have seen.   It hasn't really helped on the employment front either, as job growth is meager (of course, it is also hampered by other government policies).  What money-printing has accomplished is to push the stock market high enough to cause people to once again become delusional in their expectations."

Andy Hoffman:  (link)

"No, Larry Summers won't be able to save the day…  The damage is already done; and thus, NOTHING can turn the tide of 42 years of unfettered, global MONEY PRINTING – which as I write, has entered its final, terminal phase." 

Bullion Bulls Canada:  (link)

"So the ending is already clear.  The U.S.S. Titanic is about to be intentionally sunk (again), and B.S. Bernanke's 'fingerprints' will be planted all over the crime scene."

Credit Bubble in the Global Economy Will Eventually Collapse

John Rubino:  (link)

"… nothing was fixed after 2008, just as nothing was fixed after the housing, tech stock, and junk bond bubbles burst.  The response has been the same each time, only progressively more aggressive and experimental.  That the financial, economic and political mainstream think that the system has been reset to 'normal' because asset prices are back where they were just before the 2008 crash is, well, crazy.  With financial imbalances bigger than ever before – and continuing to expand – the only possible outcome is an even bigger crash."

Bill Holter:  (link)

"THIS is where THE REAL BUBBLE is!  The biggest bubble in all of history, (larger than the Tulip mania, South Sea, the Mississippi Bubble, 1929, current global real estate and global stock bubble combined then cubed) is the current and total global financial system.  EVERYTHING EVERYWHERE is based on credit.  In fact, over 60% of this credit is dollar based and 'guaranteed' by the U.S. government.  The minor little problem now is that we have reached 'debt saturation' levels everywhere.  There are no more asset classes left able to take on more credit (air) to inflate the balloon.  The other minor detail is that the 'asset' that underlies the value of everything (the dollar and thus Treasury securities) is issued by a bankrupt entity.  What could possibly go wrong?"

Discussion:

Growing and healthy economies mean more people are productively employed.  It appears that much of the "growth" in the U.S. economy over the last five years has been in disability income, food stamps (SNAP), unemployment, student loans, welfare, debt, and government jobs – none of which are productive.  Examine the following graph of Labor Force Participation Rate – the actual percentage of the populace that is employed.  Does this look like a healthy economy experiencing a recovery or a collapse in productive employment?

employment participation rate 1970 2013 economy

The damaging effects of 100 years of Fed meddling in the U.S. economy, many expensive wars, 42 years of unbacked debt based currency, and unsustainable growth in credit and debt have left the Western monetary system in a precarious position. 

Using common sense, ask yourself:

  1. Can total debt grow much more rapidly than the underlying economy which must support and service that debt?  FOREVER?
  2. Can government expenditures grow much more rapidly than government revenues?  FOREVER?
  3. Will interest rates remain at multi-generational lows?  FOREVER?
  4. Will a fiscally irresponsible congress rein-in an out of control spending system that our fiscally irresponsible congress created?
  5. Is another and larger (than 2008) financial collapse likely and inevitable?
  6. Do you still believe in the fantasies of ever-increasing debt, printing "money" and credit bubbles?  Are you personally and financially prepared for a potential financial collapse?
  7. Have you converted some of your digital currencies into real money – physical gold and silver?  Is it safely stored outside the banking system and perhaps in a country different from where you live?

 

Read: The Reality of Gold and the Nightmare of Paper | What You Think is True Might Be False and Costly

GE Christenson | The Deviant Investor

5 reasons why gold doesn’t care about tapering

Posted: 18 Sep 2013 08:08 AM PDT

Later this afternoon the Federal Reserve's FOMC are widely expected to announce the tapering of QE. This month's meeting has long been eyed as the one where Bernanke will make such an announcement. With this in mind gold's recent declines have been attributed to tapering expectations. Many analysts have stated that should QE be tapered then the gold bull market will almost certainly be over.

Here at The Real Asset Company we struggle to see this point of view. Not only has gold responded negatively to the latest round of QE but it is not solely driven by the decision of one committee and the US dollar.

As we explain below, there are five good reasons why the long-term gold price will disregard any announcement that is made later today.

Read on to see the 5 reasons why gold doesn’t care about QE

If they do taper, what does it mean for gold investment?

Posted: 18 Sep 2013 08:06 AM PDT

Tapering will not stop gold buying

Our new research suggests that tapering, irrespective of the gold price's response, will not have a negative effect on gold bullion investments.

A month ago we asked our clients and readers how tapering would affect their approach to their gold investments.

We gave them five options to choose from with their reply:

I will start selling heavily

I will sell a little

I will not change my holdings

I will buy more

I will buy lots more

 

The response was, in a word, bullish.

Gold investment and tapering poll

The belief that gold investing will cool-off once the Fed cuts back asset purchases has its roots in the theory that says investors only buy gold as a reaction to the FOMC's decisions. But our data shows that this is a misunderstanding.

In fact, this only appears to be the case for just 6% of respondents. It was this small group who told us that they would sell their gold, should tapering begin.

We believe this is a fair representation of the general approach to physical gold investment. Just a small minority of investors believe the tapering of QE is not only the equivalent to unwinding but is also a guarantee that the negative repercussions of easy monetary policy will not come to fruition. It also suggests that this small group believe gold will not respond to the developments in other countries and on other central bank sheets.

Gold bulls

Over 55% of those polled told us that tapering would mean they would buy more gold. These individuals are likely to believe a combination of two factors; the first is that they believe any cut is trivial and that gold will not become irrelevant because of this decision; the second is that they do not just focus on one committee's single decision when choosing their investments.

As we had expected our most popular answer, by just 2.17%, was 'I will not change my holdings'. We had expected this as our experience of gold investors is that they pay very little attention to the short-term changes in the economy and statement. These individuals, like those increasing their holdings, believe gold is a long term investment. They are aware that the supply of this investment is stable compared to that of all other currencies in the world and one committee's decision will not affect this simple fact.

Unlike the 6% mentioned above, the majority of respondents believe they still need to hold gold regardless of the FOMC's actions.

They may believe that the Fed cannot exit, or taper, QE without causing irreparable damage to the markets. The very same markets that the US's QE was designed to prop up.

Or they may hold gold because it's what they hold regardless of a central bank's decision. In the last few months this has been perfectly demonstrated. As we reported in earlier research, the nature of gold demand is changing. Rather than responding to new changes in the economy by moving away from gold, investors are instead moving away from paper gold and into physical gold.

Blinded by the Fed

Tapering is, like anything, a possibility. But it is not a wind-down of QE. Dollars will still be printed along with pounds, euro and yen. In April, Sprott Asset Management showed that the growth of central bank balance sheets and the gold price are highly (95%) correlated. It seems at present markets and commentators have become blindsided by the Fed and their actions. This is despite the results of those actions are yet to culminate and the decisions of other central banks.

Our research shows that the possible tapering by one central bank, is not enough to convince gold investors that their game is up. For starters, there are plenty of others to draw our attentions to. We are now seeing extraordinary decisions being made outside of the US: Mark Carney, of the Bank of England is clearly already adopting many of the Fed's strategies; in Japan they are pursuing an aggressively loose monetary policy; and in the EU they have a 'highly accommodative' approach.

Our research shows that when it comes to gold bullion investing the majority of respondents are long-sighted enough to see further issues on the horizon.

The attitude of respondents to either maintain or increase their holdings suggests one of two things. They either expect more damage to come from the FOMC's (and other central banks') monetary policy actions or they do not hold gold because of the decision of one committee. Instead, they hold gold because it is a currency, not a commodity, and a relevant alternative at that.

Further research is required but I suspect the majority of respondents own gold as an alternative asset. They do not hold it because of a decision a central bank may or may not take, rather they hold gold because it is has endurance, it is a faceless currency with a limited supply and no end of fundamentals of which the Federal Reserve is just one of.

Our research shows that gold will not become irrelevant because of a few billion dollars. The Fed and its contemporaries will have to work a lot harder to convince investors that they do not need to hold gold.

Get our newsletter here.

Max Keiser with Greg Palast on Larry Summers’ Secret ‘End Game’ Memo

Posted: 18 Sep 2013 08:00 AM PDT

Max Keiser with Greg Palast on Larry Summers' Secret 'End Game' Memo

In the latest Keiser Report, Max interviews author, journalist and filmmaker, Greg Palast about the Larry Summers' secret 'End Game' memo and the decriminalization of what were once financial crimes.  

The post Max Keiser with Greg Palast on Larry Summers’ Secret 'End Game' Memo appeared first on Silver Doctors.

And So We Wait…For The Fed To Announce Their Plans

Posted: 18 Sep 2013 07:35 AM PDT

Gold Sits Right At $1300. 

24 Hour Spot Gold Bid 9-18-13 758

The rest of this decade will be one for the history books – but so were the 70's! 

Tonight, for the first time, I watched the video of Joe Cocker's band Mad Dogs and Englishmen 1970 concert tour.  It transported me back to my late 20s/early 30s.  The DVD is much more than the concert footage of the tour, some of which was shot in Minneapolis at The Depot.  (Some years later, Prince recorded the movie and LP Purple Rain at The Depot.  I used to go there a lot.  It's about a lifestyle. For people of my generation, that's the way the world was then.  It was so different from today that my two oldest grand daughters (21 and 17) would have a hard time relating to that era at all.

Pic 1

Pic 2

The music was spontaneous and simple.  No massive productions, no computer light shows, and no magnificent customs – in short, it was real!

The band stayed in Holiday Inns and comparable lodging and they led a not so glamorous life on the road.  Well, they did have their drugs sex and rock and roll – plus the adulation of huge crowds across America.  I guess it wasn't so bad after all.

Back in those days, the press was interested in honest REPORTING.  The "big" banks were local.  Investing was something left for the rich, and most of us weren't rich.  It was a big deal then to own a mutual fund or if you were bold, some shares of IBM or GM.  Wealth was being able to afford a small three-bedroom rambler in the suburbs and owned an American made car (practically no one bought a foreign car then – but I was an exception.  I had a white Mercedes 250SL, but it had flower decals on the trunk.  I was stuck between two worlds).  If you were lucky, you would take your family on a week's vacation to Miami or Tucson.  (That applies to those of us who lived up North in the winter.)

We were sick of war; Vietnam angered a generation – but look at us now.  Endless war on terrorism!  No protests!  No riots (yet).  Where are the 20-year olds today?  Probably trying to find a job.

The government stayed out of our life and no one ever talked about or thought about the Fed.  How many of you can name the head of the Fed in the 1970s?  (Arthur Burns – replaced in August 1979 by Paul Volcker).  I couldn't have told you in those days.  No one I knew could have told you.  No one gave a darn.

I was vaguely aware of "inflation," because the company I worked for at the time started to use "inflation" figures to calculate raises.  That's about when the government must have decided they had to "soften" the reported inflation numbers.  And so they did.

And now things are just the opposite!

Music is a production – professionally choreographed, with computerized light shows, hand made customs and over-rehearsed performances with no spontaneity.

Today, the only banks that matter are the Too Big to fail banks.  Most people own stocks and if they have a high net worth, they also rely on money managers and financial advisors.

Being "wealthy" today means a million dollar plus home and a second home to vacation in.  There weren't many wealthy people when I grew up, or they lived in small pockets away from the city.  Now, wealth is commonplace.  Wealth surrounds us – and money has become the most important thing in many people's lives.  Everything is so plastic, so orchestrated.  We are told what to do in every area of our life.  We are told what to eat, what to drink, what not to eat and drink, what to wear, how fast to drive, what medications to take, who to vote for, how to think and how to invest.

The amazing thing is that most people go along with this.  What ever happened to Love, Peace, Flowers, Rock and Roll and freethinking?  Watch this DVD and you will know what I'm talking about.

People are caught up in the moment.  We are glued to the computer screen and the TV screen.  What will the Fed say on Wednesday?  What will happen to bonds and gold?  Will we invade Syria or not?  Who will the next Fed Chairperson be?  Will the government shut down in a month or two?  All of these questions to ponder or agonize over, but the truth is this is all noise and nonsense.  Others would call it BS.

The bigger picture – apart from the daily headlines, is where people should focus.  I'm not just talking about finances.  Life goes by very quickly and it is too precious to let it pass you by.  Don't get caught up in the headlines or the daily market moves.  In fact, if you were smart, you would stop reading about the markets every day and stop following the price of your investments every day and sit back and enjoy your life.

Me, I'm kind of stuck here – I still own and run a business.  But I do not let it get in the way of living.  I write about gold and silver going up and down every day, but I don't worry about it.  I'm cutting back on my writing.  I never stopped smelling the flowers, and you can't smell the flowers while typing onto a computer screen.

I know how this will play out and it's all that I really need to know.  How we get there will be interesting and very unpredictable.  I view it with an existential "interested indifference."

It will be quite a ride, especially if you have the ability to step back, outside of your direct involvement, in a third-person sort of way, and watch history unfold.

The rest of this decade will be one for the history books – but so were the 70's!

Check out the following articles from Zero Hedge and Jim Sinclair below:

Canadian Billionaire Predicts The End Of The Dollar As Reserve Currency; Warns “its Likely To Get Ugly”

Submitted by Tyler Durden  on 9/17/2013

Beginning with how Kissinger and Nixon enabled the USD as the world’s de facto reserve currency through oil, Canadian Billionaire Ned Goodman explains in the brief but far-reaching clip how it is both inevitable (and rapidly approaching) that the rest of the world will turn its back on the dollar. With China and Russia (among many others that we have detailed in the past) agreeing on non-USD swap terms for energy, the cracks are starting to show and as Goodman details, “in the 1930s, everyone wanted USD (backed by silver),” but today, backed by nothing, “everyone wants to get rid of them.” Buying hard assets is crucial (he has never been more bullish of gold) as we head into a period of stagflation or even high inflation; and as Goodman previously commented “the world is totally upside down right now – it’s completely crazy,” in fact, he adds, “I’m keen on anything that’s going to live with higher inflationary numbers, because I can’t see the world getting out of the problems that it’s in.”

***

Jim Grant Defines Deflation

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 9/17/2013

Deflation – A derangement of money or credit, a symptom of which is falling prices. Not to be confused with a benign, i.e., downward shift in the composite supply curve, a symptom of which is also falling prices.

In a genuine deflation, banks stop lending. Prices tumble because overextended businesses and consumers confront the necessity of selling assets in order to raise cash. When prices fall because efficient producers are competing to deliver lower-priced goods and services to the marketplace, that is called "progress." 

In 2013, central bankers the world over define deflation as a fall in prices, no matter what the cause. Nowadays, to forestall what is popularly called deflation, the world's monetary authorities are seemingly prepared to pull out every radical policy stop. Where it all ends is one of the great questions of contemporary finance.

***

In The News Today

Posted September 16th, 2013 at 10:27 AM (CST) by Jim Sinclair

My Dear Extended Family,

QE is attacked as ineffective.

It was for Main Street, but not for Wall Street.

It was for Main Street, but not for the bond markets of the Western world.

It was for Main Street, but not for the mountain of eternally growing OTC derivatives.

QE is a trap that once embarked upon cannot be stopped or even tapered. We are approaching the point of no return.

To taper QE will open the cracks that have begun to show in the bull bond market of generations.

To taper QE will turn business psychology as negative as indicators are now pointing.

To taper QE will end the bull market in equities.

The try and restart QE will be totally futile in terms of markets. The point of no return is the point of losing control of markets, from currency to equities. The point of no return could easily be any day now.

The biggest mistake of the moment is that to taper is a meaningless event.

Sincerely,

Jim

-jsmineset.com, September 16, 2013

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Gold prices keep falling while market expects a smaller Fed taper

Posted: 18 Sep 2013 07:35 AM PDT

The gold futures may have already priced in a $10 billion tapering although gold prices are still very volatile as the path of tapering is uncertain. Investors will also focus on the Fed's economic projections for 2016.

Janet Yellen: What A Horrifying Choice For Fed Chairman She Would Be

Posted: 18 Sep 2013 07:13 AM PDT

Janet YellenAre you ready for Janet Yellen?  Wall Street wants her, the mainstream media wants her and it appears that her confirmation would be a slam dunk.  She would be the first woman ever to chair the Federal Reserve, and her philosophy is that a little bit of inflation is actually good for an economy.  She was reportedly the architect for many of the unprecedented monetary decisions that Ben Bernanke made during his tenure, and that has many on Wall Street and in the media very excited.  Noting that we "already know that Yellen is on board with Bernanke's easy money policies", CNN recently even went so far as to publish a rabidly pro-Yellen article with this stunning headline: "Dear Mr. President: Name Yellen now!"  But after watching what a disaster Bernanke has been, do we really want more of the same?  It doesn't really matter whether she is a woman, a man, a giant lizard or a robot, the question is whether or not she is going to continue to take us down the path to ruin that Bernanke has taken us.  As I have written about so many times, the Federal Reserve is at the very heart of our economic problems, and under Bernanke the Fed has created a mammoth financial bubble unlike anything that we have ever seen before.  If Yellen keeps us going down that road, financial disaster is inevitable.

Sadly, Yellen is not a woman that believes in free markets.  She had the following to say back in 1999...

"Will capitalist economies operate at full employment in the absence of routine intervention? Certainly not."

Yellen believes that without the "routine intervention" of the central planners at the Fed, our economy will not produce satisfactory results.

So if you thought that Bernanke was an "interventionist", you haven't seen anything yet.  In fact, according to Time Magazine, Yellen was continually urging Bernanke to do even more "to help stimulate the economy"...

But as the most recent financial crisis proved, a good Fed chief needs to be willing to think outside the box to achieve its goals of low, steady inflation and full employment. This is exactly what Bernanke did — using the powers of his office to launch a massive bond-buying program aimed at lowering interest rates further down the yield curve and promising to keep short-term interest rates at near zero for years. Bernanke, however, didn't launch these programs immediately. Behind the scenes, it was reportedly Yellen who was the most forceful advocate for the Fed doing more to help stimulate the economy.

It is truly frightening to think that Yellen might turn out to be "Bernanke on steroids".

Let's hope that she is not the choice.

But the media is endlessly hyping her.  They keep proclaiming that she has a "good track record" when it comes to forecasting future economic conditions.

Oh really?

Back in February 2007, before the housing crash and the last financial crisis, she made the following statement...

"The bottom line for housing is that the concerns we used to hear about the possibility of a devastating collapse—one that might be big enough to cause a recession in the U.S. economy—while not fully allayed have diminished. Moreover, while the future for housing activity remains uncertain, I think there is a reasonable chance that housing is in the process of stabilizing, which would mean that it would put a considerably smaller drag on the economy going forward."

And during a speech in December 2007 she offered up this gem...

"To sum up the story on the outlook for real GDP growth, my own view is that, under appropriate monetary policy, the economy is still likely to achieve a relatively smooth adjustment path, with real GDP growth gradually returning to its roughly 2½ percent trend over the next year or so, and the unemployment rate rising only very gradually to just above its 4¾ percent sustainable level."

And in front of the Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission in 2010 she openly admitted that she did not see the last financial crisis coming...

"For my own part," Ms. Yellen said, "I did not see and did not appreciate what the risks were with securitization, the credit ratings agencies, the shadow banking system, the S.I.V.'s — I didn't see any of that coming until it happened."

So if she didn't see the last crisis coming, will she see the next one coming?

Right now, she insists that everything is going to be just fine in our immediate future.

Do you believe her?

Meanwhile, economic warning flags are popping up all over the place.  As Zero Hedge recently noted, perhaps this is why a lot of high profile candidates don't want the Fed job.  Perhaps they don't want to be blamed for the giant economic mess that is about to happen...

With so many candidates dropping out of the race, one has to wonder why the attraction of the 'most-powerful' job in the world is fading. Perhaps it is not wanting to stuck between the rock of the 'broken-market-diminishing-returns' of moar QE and the hard place of an economy/market that is sputtering and needs moar. As Bloomberg's Rich Yamarone notes, There's a little known rule of thumb in the economics world: when the annual growth rate of key U.S. indicators falls below 2 percent, the economy slides into recession in the next 12 months... and more than one of them is flashing red.

But we have far bigger worries on our hands than just another recession.

Over the past several years, Fed intervention has been systematically destroying confidence in the U.S. dollar and has been making U.S. government debt less desirable.  Foreigners are already starting to dump U.S. debt, and it is only a matter of time before the U.S. dollar loses its status as the de facto reserve currency of the world.

By "kicking the can down the road", the Fed has created tremendous structural problems which are going to come back to bite us big time in the long run.

Recklessly printing money, monetizing debt and driving interest rates down to ridiculously low levels may have had some benefits in the short-term, but in the end this giant Ponzi scheme is going to collapse in spectacular fashion.  The following is how James Howard Kunstler puts it...

The Fed can only pretend to try to get out of this self-created hell-hole. The stock market is a proxy for the economy and a handful of giant banks are proxies for the American public, and all they've really got going is a hideous high-frequency churn of trades in conjectural debentures that pretend to represent something hidden in the caboose of a choo-choo train of wished-for value — and hardly anyone in the nation, including those with multiple graduate degrees in abstruse crypto-sciences, can even pretend to understand it all.

When reality crosses the finish line ahead of poor, exhausted Mr. Bernanke, havoc must ensue. All the artificial props fall away and the so-called American economy is revealed for what it is: a surreal landscape of ruin with nothing left but salvage value. Very few people will get a living off of the salvage operations, and there will be fights and skirmishes everywhere by one gang or another for control of the pickings. The utility of money itself may be bygone, along with the legitimacy of anyone or anything claiming institutional authority. This is what comes of all attempts to get something for nothing.

The American people deserve to know the truth.

The Fed is not our "savior".  The truth is that the Fed is the primary cause of many of our biggest economic problems.  For much more on this, please see my previous article entitled "25 Fast Facts About The Federal Reserve – Please Share With Everyone You Know".

Unfortunately, Wall Street and the mainstream media love the Fed and they appear to very much love Janet Yellen.

Yellen would be an absolutely horrifying choice for Fed Chairman, but so would any of the other names that have been floated.

America has embraced the foolishness of the financial central planners at the Federal Reserve, and in the end we will all pay a great price for that.

Stewart Thomson: Gold Technicals Suggest Dovish Taper

Posted: 18 Sep 2013 07:01 AM PDT

Stewart Thomson: Gold Technicals Suggest Dovish Taper

Gold is wealth itself. Whether you are bullish or bearish, there are still key price areas on the "grid" that should be bought and sold. I'm placing risk capital  based on a scenario where the Fed announces a dovish taper today, and then gold & silver stocks begin a strong rally. Submitted by Stewart Thomson: [...]

The post Stewart Thomson: Gold Technicals Suggest Dovish Taper appeared first on Silver Doctors.

What Is The Fed Really Printing?

Posted: 18 Sep 2013 06:35 AM PDT

Whilst the Cartel did this to gold in last night's wee hours – as Yahoo! Finance's "Top story" dis in genuinely read "Eerie Calm in Countdown to Fed Conclusion"…

24 Hour Spot Gold Bid 9-17-13 2320

…"Reader J" sent me the following email, pertaining to what the Fed is really up to…

People keep asking if Bernanke will taper or not.  They seem to ignore a third option – i.e., Bernanke can say he's tapering, when in fact he is increasing QE.  I offer this because there is no way Bernanke can 'manage' the 10-year bond if he is limited to $45 billion a month.  In my opinion, he has to already be spending much more.  He is already saying one thing and doing another.  Not that this strategy works very well.  But it's all he has.  And there is no way for us to know what he is really doing.

I could not agree more, and have said so for many, many years.  The government lies about anything and everything; and in its maniacal quest to "kick the can" as far as possible, no area has witnessed such deception as its financial policy.  For example, we know for a FACT that the Fed secretly lent out $16 TRILLION amidst the charred 2008-09 financial landscape; tens of billions to European sovereigns via off-balance sheet "swap agreements"; and likely, utilizes limitless funds to support "favored" markets – like U.S. Treasuries and stocks – and suppress "undesirables" like gold and silver.  In my view, there is NO WAY paper markets can be so thoroughly controlled otherwise.

The Fed knows its track record of predicting economic growth is abysmal; not to mention, the REAL economy worsens by the minute.  And thus, it will do ANYTHING – legal or illegal – to mask the nation's economies frailties, and their own policy failures.  Fortunately, their footprints are increasingly transparent to the ENTIRE WORLD; such as in the stock market, where major averages have NEVER veered so far from economic reality; and even more so, the Precious Metals – where PHYSICAL inventories are draining like bathtubs without stoppers, as the production outlook collapses due to the financial damage wrought upon miners…

Stock Market S & P 500

TPTB will fight their demise "to the death"; but in the end, it will be they who financially die, as their fiat currency Ponzi scheme inevitably implodes.  When that day arrives – and arguably, in some nations it already has – either you will own PHYSICAL PMs, and thus be financially saved; or otherwise, worthless fiat "money units" will sentence you and yours to lives of severe economic struggle.  And given how dire the current, global financial situation is, that day could be any month, week, or day.Similar Posts:

India hikes Gold, Silver jewellery customs duty to 15%

Posted: 18 Sep 2013 06:17 AM PDT

The Ministry said that customs duty on gold and silver has been reviewed periodically in the past two years and revised upwards as part of measures to contain the current account deficit.

Gold Rush Cometh In Japan – 1 Quadrillion Yen National Debt To Bankrupt

Posted: 18 Sep 2013 06:02 AM PDT

Gold Rush Cometh In Japan - 1 Quadrillion Yen National Debt To Bankrupt

Japan’s soaring national debt is already more than twice the size of its economy. Even at current all time record low interest rates, Japan spends nearly 50% of its tax revenues on interest payments. The Japanese 10 year government bond is trading at just 0.70% today. At borrowing costs of 2% to 3% per annum, [...]

The post Gold Rush Cometh In Japan – 1 Quadrillion Yen National Debt To Bankrupt appeared first on Silver Doctors.

Gold Rush Cometh In Japan - 1 Quadrillion Yen National Debt To Bankrupt

Posted: 18 Sep 2013 05:02 AM PDT

gold.ie

Fed QE Tapering: Quanticlimax for Gold & Silver Bears?

Posted: 18 Sep 2013 04:31 AM PDT

Gold and silver rose on QE. So tapering must drive precious metal prices lower again, right...?
 
SO TODAY's the day, writes Adrian Ash at BullionVault.
 
Ben Bernanke, head of the US central bank, will announce the beginning of the end for quantitative easing at this month's policy meeting in Washington.
 
Everyone thinks so. Gold and silver prices seem to agree, drifting to new multi-week lows Wednesday morning in a reversal of their pattern when QE was ramped up from 2009 to 2012. And Bernanke pretty much said in June that QE's end would start this month. Policy-makers have been talking about it since April.
 
Those two months loom large for anyone trading gold or silver. But looking at this week's 4% drop so far, traders have to ask: 
 
Is it a case of sell the rumour, buy the news? 
 
It was always the reverse when QE was growing. Acting in what we christened "quanticipation", gold and silver prices tended to rise ahead of the US Fed's various QE launches (you remember - QE1, QE2, and so on). They then fell back once the announcement was made, only to resume their longer-term rise. 
 
So the outlook today? The aim of QE is to juice assets which might help boost the economy, or at least make it look that way. So since March 2009, the very depths of the post-Lehmans' banking collapse, the Fed's QE program has created and spent some $2.735 trillion by our maths. That's greater than the sum total of all US cash and household savings in existence only 25 years ago. It's equal to one Dollar in every four held by US savers today.
 
This flood of money, you'll recall, has been used primarily to buy US Treasury bonds. The stated plan was to push up the price of "risk free" government debt investments, pushing down the interest rate they offer. That way, investors would be forced to make riskier bets if they wanted any hope of a decent return. Borrowers could then raise loans at cheaper rates, greasing the wheels of the economy.
 
Did it work? 
 
US consumer debt is lower today by 12% from the peak of end-2008, just before QE began. That fall has been driven entirely by a drop in mortgage debt, despite a good chunk of the Fed's electronic cash also going to buy mortgage-backed bonds as well as Treasury debt.
 
Wall Street's own debt has meantime shrunk by one fifth, while corporate borrowing by non-financial firms has risen, but not by much when you account for inflation. What has soared, of course, is the stock market, with the S&P rising to all-time record highs as QE has been piled on QE.
 
As for interest rates, the best the Fed could say is that they didn't soar. Yet. But rather than falling as advertised, 10-year US Treasury yields actually rose over the lifetime of QE1 (up from 2.42% to 3.85%). The start of QE2 saw 10-year yields rise almost one whole percentage point. Interest rates then hit rock-bottom – the very lowest in history – two months before the start of QE3.
 
So far, so bad. QE didn't do what it was supposed to. Other than making the stock market jump. It also failed to raise the rate of inflation in consumer prices, which the Fed hoped would make the value of debt fall in real terms.
 
But what of debt's opposite – physical bullion? Gold and silver are the most sensitive assets to monetary policy. Specifically, people buy silver and gold when they fear the value of money will fall. QE is plainly a campaign to drive money out of cash and lower-risk investments by creating so much of them – at will, from nowhere – that their value sinks. That has driven much of the last 5 years' surge in gold and silver investment demand. So whether or not today's QE tapering is already "priced in" by gold and silver's 2013 plunge, the end of QE would, you might imagine, drive prices down further.
 
But note: Bernanke will still be running his electronic printing press after today's Fed tapering statement and press conference. It's just that, rather than printing $85 billion per month, the Federal Reserve will now create and spend perhaps $75bn or a little less. And from there, says the plan, new quantitative easing will only be slowly reduced. Finishing in 2014 is by no means certain. 
 
Nor is this the first taper or pause in new QE flows. It's only the first cut to the un-ending monthly program started 12 months ago. Nor will the trillions created to date be destroyed. That money is here to stay, albeit stuck at the Fed – where it was born – as excess reserves held by the banking sector. Gold and silver bears should watch their stop-losses if that cash ever leaches out into new bank lending. Zero interest rates on short-term money will also persist. And aggressive QE will now sit at the top of the Fed's policy toolbox whenever it rolls up its sleeves and pops open the lid. 
 
The world's biggest central bank, in short, isn't done with QE or zero rates yet. The rest of the world is applying the same "remedy" for the long ago financial crisis as well. No, the rate of inflation hasn't leapt yet. But whatever noise today brings for gold and silver prices, the value of cash remains under attack by the very people charged with defending it.

Punt the Bernank!!

Posted: 18 Sep 2013 04:00 AM PDT

Punt the Bernank!!

Ahead of this afternoon’s September FOMC statement in which the market has been anticipating the Fed to announce a taper to QE for months now (and as we await the imminent gold & silver smash), as tradition here on SilverDoctors, in what might be one of the last opportunities before the Fed Chairman is shown [...]

The post Punt the Bernank!! appeared first on Silver Doctors.

Trading Comments, 18 September 2013 (posted 12h45 CET):

Posted: 18 Sep 2013 03:45 AM PDT

Despite this latest downdraft, which was deeper than I expected, the base in the precious metals is still building nicely. So I continue to believe that gold and silver completed in June a major

Why You Should Not Be Enthusiastic About Janet Yellen as Fed Chairman

Posted: 18 Sep 2013 02:25 AM PDT

While it's a relief to have Larry Summers out of the running for the Fed chairmanship, it's also important not to labor under any delusions about Janet Yellen, the nominee presumptive. Larry Summers set a very low bar to beat.

The modern Fed has become a citadel for orthodox-thinking, meaning entirely mainstream economists. And even though the global financial crisis revealed mainstream economics to be intellectually bankrupt and worse, affirmatively destructive, it has lost no hold over policy. It's hard to imagine that a keen empiricist and original thinker like Marriner Eccles, the Fed chairman from 1934 to 1948, would have a snowball's chance in hell of being appointed to any important position at the present-day Fed.

Obama embraces and will continue to perpetuate the conservatism of our central bank. He reappointed Bernanke, who has continued the policies of the Greenspan Fed: aggressive market intervention with a permissive posture on regulation (Dan Tarullo is the moving force behind the push at the Fed for tougher oversight). The Bernanke put has proven to be the Greenspan put on steroids. And recall that the Bernanke reappointment was not a shoe-in. Bernanke got an unheard-of five holds in the Senate and was confirmed with the largest number of no votes in the history of the Fed. And even that result came only after Obama whipped for him personally.

Zach Carter at Huffington Post gives a bill of particulars on Yellen’s policy positions. The fact that she has been touted as being more dovish on interest rates right now and a better forecaster than Summers has directed attention away from the fact that her economic views are firmly neoliberal, meaning antagonistic to the interests of ordinary citizens. In addition, she has a history of being a “don’t rock the boat” type, which is safe from a career advancement standpoint and looked sound during the 1990s, when the great experiment in creating an appearance of prosperity via rising consumer leverage still has a way to run before it hit its inevitable limits.

Carter recaps some of Yellen’s positions:

Yellen supported a host of economic policies during the Clinton era that have since become broadly unpopular. She backed the repeal of the landmark Glass-Steagall bank reform and she supported the 1993 North American Free Trade Agreement. She also pressured the government to develop a new statistical metric intended to lower payments to senior citizens on Social Security….

A full transcript of Yellen’s Feb. 5, 1997 confirmation hearing is available here. At the same event, Yellen endorsed establishing a new statistical metric that would allow the federal government to reduce Social Security payments over time, by revising the consumer price index, or CPI, the government’s standard measurement for inflation…Once in office, Yellen put that belief into action, writing a letter to the Bureau of Labor Statistics encouraging it to devise a cheaper inflation metric…

At the time, this new metric, known as chained CPI, was being aggressively pursued by House Speaker Newt Gingrich (R-Ga.), following then-Fed Chair Alan Greenspan’s criticism of the existing cost-of-living calculations…Some economists argue that a more appropriate inflation measure for Social Security would look at price changes for elderly people, and the BLS does track an experimental metric addressing inflation for older Americans. Such a metric is not useful for politicians looking to cut Social Security spending, however, as it shows that living expenses tend to go up more for older people, driven in part by health care spending.

Chained CPI has been a major point of contention in budget negotiations between Obama and congressional Republicans, with both camps alternating between supporting the measure and decrying it. Adopting Chained CPI to cut Social Security is extremely unpopular with both the general public and senior citizens.

Oh, and Carter also points out that Yellen also pumped for NAFTA in 1993.

Yellen advocated cap and trade in 1998. She argued for only narrow application of anti-trust the same year:

Screen shot 2013-09-18 at 2.02.51 AM

In addition, the claims about Yellen’s accomplishments are exaggerated. For instance, the mainstream media is touting the idea that she was one of the economists who recognized that there was a housing bubble forming. Huh? A read of FOMC minutes shows no such thing. The most she did was consider the idea that housing prices might be too high. She missed the bubble, just like everyone else in the cloistered Fed. As John Hussman wrote (hat tip Scott):

We now face the prospect of Janet Yellen, who in October 2005, at the height of the housing bubble, delivered a speech effectively proposing that monetary policy could mitigate any negative economic consequences of a housing collapse, and arguing that the Fed had no role in preventing further housing distortions:

"First, if the bubble were to deflate on its own, would the effect on the economy be exceedingly large? Second, is it unlikely that the Fed could mitigate the consequences? Third, is monetary policy the best tool to use to deflate a house-price bubble? My answers to these questions in the shortest possible form are, 'no,' 'no,' and 'no.'"

If you read the entire speech, Yellen points out that housing prices have risen considerably, putting them way over their long-established relationship to rentals. But she also says:

Higher than normal ratios do not necessarily prove that there's a house-price bubble. House prices could be high for some good, fundamental reasons. For example, there have been changes in the tax laws that reduce the potential tax bite from selling one home and buying another. Another development, which may be making housing more like an investment vehicle in the U.S., is that it's now easier and cheaper to get at the equity—either through refinancing, which has become a less costly process, or through an equity line of credit. These innovations in mortgage markets make the funds invested in houses more liquid. There are also constraints on the supply of housing in a number of markets, including the Bay Area. Probably the most obvious candidate for a fundamental factor is low mortgage interest rates. Even so, the consensus seems to be that the high price-to-rent ratio for housing cannot be fully accounted for by these factors. So, while I'm certainly not predicting anything about future house price movements, I think it's obvious that the housing sector represents a serious issue for monetary policymakers to consider.

In other words, this is the steotypical two-handed economist analysis.*

The image that emerges from Yellen’s record is that of a mainstream Clintonista, someone who does not rock the Beltway consensus, reflexively pro-market, hesitant to regulate or intervene. It’s possible her views have shifted somewhat in the wake of the crisis, particularly since the research out of the San Francisco Fed isn’t rigidly orthodox. But the IMF famously publishes research that is well to the left of its policies, so it’s not clear that the San Francisco Fed’s research is a valid indicator. The best guide will be Yellen’s stance in her confirmation hearing, assuming she is nominated. Hopefully the same Senators that opposed the Summers nomination will ask tough questions.

Mind you, I don’t oppose Yellen, but caution readers to be realistic about her. She is the best candidate Obama would nominate. Just don’t confuse that with all that good.

___
*In fairness, she was right in saying that monetary policy is not a great way to address a bubble in a specific type of asset. This is an issue we discussed prior to the crisis, for instance, citing the governor of Australia’s Reserve Bank Ian MacFarlane, who was concerned about a much more obvious housing bubble in Australia (one which curiously has only managed to inflate even further).

The World Awaits the End of Q.E…But Will it Happen?

Posted: 18 Sep 2013 02:25 AM PDT

"The high-frequency traders did the dirty in all four precious metals early in Far East trading this a.m."

¤ Yesterday In Gold & Silver

Gold did little of anything in Far East trading on their Tuesday, but volume was decent nonetheless.  The price rallied a bit at the London open, but it didn't get too far.  The high of the day appeared to come during the London lunch hour, and from there it got sold down until just past the London p.m. gold fix.  From that point it chopped sideways into the 5:15 p.m. electronic close in New York.  The low of the day [$1,305.30 spot] came at 12:15 p.m. EDT.

Gold finished the Tuesday session at $1,310.00 spot, down $3.90 from Monday's close.  Net volume was around 142,000 contracts.

It was more or less the same trading pattern in silver as well once again.  The only real difference was that the low price tick of the day [$21.55 spot] came about fifteen minutes after the Comex open in New York yesterday morning.  It recovered a bit, but continued to slide into the close after that.

Silver finished the day at $21.735 spot, down 8.5 cents from Monday.  Net volume was only 35,000 contracts.

The price action in platinum and palladium was somewhat more subdued.  Platinum closed down a bit and palladium finished flat.  Here are the charts.

The dollar index closed late on Monday EDT at 81.28.  It's high tick of 81.35 came just minutes before 11 a.m. in Hong Kong trading.  By half-past lunchtime in London, the index was down to 81.15.  And except for a brief down/up spike in morning trading in New York, the index traded pretty flat for the remainder of the day.  The index closed at the 81.15 mark, which was down thirteen basis points from Monday's close.

The gold stocks opened in positive territory, and except for a quick spike down at the gold's New York low, which came at 10:15 a.m. EDT, the equities chopped higher for the remainder of the day.  The HUI finished right on its high tick, up 1.80%.  If you're looking for a reason why the shares closed up yesterday, I don't have one.

The silver stocks spent equal time trading either side of unchanged on Tuesday.  But when all was said and done, Nick Laird's Intraday Silver Sentiment Index closed up at tiny 0.14%.  It's better than the alternative, I suppose.

The CME's Daily Delivery Report showed that zero gold and 57 silver contracts were posted for delivery on Thursday within the Comex-approved depositories.  For the second day in a row it was Jefferies as the largest short/issuer, this time with 50 contracts.  Canada's Bank of Nova Scotia and JPMorgan Chase in their client account picked up 35 and fourteen contracts respectively as the biggest long/stoppers.  The link to yesterday's Issuers and Stoppers Report is here.

There were no reported changes in GLD, and as of 9:28 p.m. EDT yesterday evening, there were no reported changes in SLV, either.

The U.S. Mint had a small sales report yesterday.  They sold another 2,000 ounces of gold eagles, along with another 500 1-ounce 24K gold buffaloes.

The activity in gold within the Comex-approved depositories on Monday is hardly worth mentioning.  There were 2 kilo bars deposited at Brink's, Inc. and that was all.

Needless to say, it was a different story in silver.  There were 857,048 troy ounces reported deposited, and 263,785 troy ounces were shipped out.  The link to that action is here.

I have a decent number of stories for you today, but hardly anything in the precious metal department.

¤ Critical Reads

Krugman: Please Don't Taper

Nobel Prize-winning economist Paul Krugman is sending a desperate plea to the Federal Reserve as it considers shrinking its quantitative easing stimulus:

"Please don't do it," Krugman writes in his New York Times column.

The risks of tapering its stimulus too soon far outweigh the risks of continuing them, he contends.

Tapering too quickly, he warns, "could damage an already weak recovery, causing hundreds of billions if not trillions of dollars in economic damage, leaving hundreds of thousands if not millions of additional workers without jobs and inflicting long-term damage as more and more of the unemployed are perceived as unemployable."

This article was posted on the moneynews.com Internet site yesterday morning...and I thank West Virginia reader Elliot Simon for today's first story.

The typical American family makes less than it did in 1989

The Census Bureau is out with the annual report on incomes and poverty. And while you might think that after years of stagnant incomes and elevated poverty rates, we would be inured to the depressing facts contained therein, it still somehow has the power to shock.

For my money, the most depressing fact about the economy is not the fact that household incomes were basically flat in 2012 (the real median household income was down to $51,017 from $51,100 in 2011, a statistically insignificant change). It wasn't even the fact that 15 percent of the U.S. population was living in poverty, according to the official, flawed definition of the term.

The most depressing result shows that in 1989, the median American household made $51,681 in current dollars (the 2012 number, again, was $51,017). That means that 24 years ago, a middle class American family was making more than the a middle class family was making one year ago.

This isn't a lost decade for economic gains for Americans. It's a lost generation.

This short news item, with an excellent chart embedded, appeared on The Washington Post website late yesterday morning EDT...and I thank Elliot Simon for his second offering in a row.

Congressional Budget Office Predicts Unsustainable Debt

As the White House and Congress careen toward another fiscal showdown, the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office warned on Tuesday that President Obama and lawmakers have been cutting the wrong kind of federal spending as they try to avoid the unsustainable buildup of debt that is projected in the coming decades.

Annual federal deficits will continue to fall in the short term, the budget office reported in its yearly long-term outlook, because of the recent spending cuts in military and domestic programs and rising tax collections in a recovering economy. The report projected the deficit in 2015 to be equal to 2.1 percent of the economy’s output, or just one-fifth of the peak shortfall at the height of the recession in 2009.

But starting in 2016, deficits are projected to rise again as more baby boomers begin drawing from Medicare, Medicaid and Social Security — the fast-growing entitlement programs, which Democrats and Republicans cannot agree on how to rein in.

This New York Times story was posted on their Internet site sometime yesterday...and I thank reader Ken Hurt for sending it our way.  It also sports a new and somewhat softer sounding headline..."Budget Office Warns That Deficits Will Rise Again Because Cuts Are Misdirected".

Gretchen Morgenson: Repo Market Might Cause Another Financial Crisis

That's the crucial vulnerability in our financial system that could cause another financial crisis, some experts worry.

In fact, former FDIC chief Sheila Blair, New York Fed Chief William Dudley and Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke have all expressed concerns about the repo market.

"Now $4.6 trillion in size, it is where almost every financial crisis since the 1980s has begun. Little has been done, however, to reduce its risks," writes New York Times columnist Gretchen Morgenson.

The repo market, also called the repurchase obligation or wholesale funding market, is the "plumbing" of our financial system, she notes Banks can finance their securities holdings cheaply, and money market funds can to put their cash to work by lending to banks and other financial players.

The problem is that the repo market is based on trust — which can disappear instantly in a panic.

This must read commentary can be found on the moneynews.com Internet site.  It was posted there early yesterday morning...and it's the third contribution of the day from Elliot Simon.

Charges Could Still Be Coming for Some Close to Madoff

With federal prosecutors in Manhattan facing a December deadline to bring additional charges connected to Bernard L. Madoff’s multibillion-dollar Ponzi scheme, they are weighing criminal charges against several people connected to the case, said people briefed on the investigation. Among those still under scrutiny are Shana Madoff Swanson, a senior executive at the firm, and Paul J. Konigsberg, a longtime accountant in Mr. Madoff’s inner circle.

Investigators have examined several dozen people related to the case. Including Mr. Madoff, who is serving a 150-year prison sentence, nine have pleaded guilty. When Mr. Madoff confessed in December 2008, that started the clock ticking on a five-year statute of limitations to bring securities fraud charges.

Any new charges would come just weeks before the first criminal trial related to the Madoff case. On Oct. 7, five former employees of Bernard L. Madoff Investment Securities are scheduled to stand trial in Federal District Court in Manhattan on charges they aided the fraud. Each of the five employees — Daniel Bonventre, Annette Bongiorno, Joann Crupi, Jerome O’Hara and George Perez — worked at the firm for more than 15 years.

This article was posted on The New York Times website last evening...and I thank Phil Barlett for sending it.  Phil had this to say in his covering e-mail..."And Jon Corzine frolics on a beach somewhere tomorrow morning with a 30-something year-old. Meanwhile, Gary Gensler, Bart Chilton...and their most benevolent benefactor, Jamie Dimon, sleep restfully. Otherwise, everything seems to be going on just fine here in the USSA."

CEO Dimon Tells JPMorgan Staff to Brace for More Regulatory Woes

JPMorgan Chase & Co. Chief Executive Jamie Dimon said the largest U.S. bank is bracing for more legal and regulatory scrutiny in the coming weeks and months, but outlined a series of steps the company has taken to improve operations in a memo to employees on Tuesday.

JPMorgan, which is already facing a wide range of probes from several regulators and the U.S. Department of Justice, is devoting "unprecedented" resources to fix its risk, legal and compliance operations. Dimon has also begun meeting personally with regulators to improve relationships, he said.

"Unfortunately, we are all well aware of the news around the legal and regulatory issues facing our company, and in the coming weeks and months we need to be braced for more to come," Dimon said in the memo, which was obtained by Reuters.

JPMorgan has added 4,000 staff to its control groups since 2012 — three quarters of them this year — and increased spending on those efforts by about $1 billion. The bank's control group includes risk, compliance, legal, finance, technology, oversight and control and audit functions.

This is no surprise, but still amazing nonetheless.  It was posted on the moneynews.com Internet site late yesterday morning EDT...and it's yet another offering from Elliot Simon.

Jobs champion Janet Yellen leads Fed race as Larry Summers forced out

Global markets are euphoric over the defeat of Larry Summers, blocked by Senate Democrats from taking over the US Federal Reserve. His ties to Wall Street doomed him.

The assumption is that President Barack Obama will have to turn to the “dovish” Janet Yellen to replace Ben Bernanke at the helm of the Fed, still the world’s monetary hegemon. This will ensure looser money for longer, or so the argument goes. The Fed will be slower to wind down quantitative easing (QE), a tapering process likely to begin this week.

The White House has until now been talking down Mrs Yellen in a clumsy whispering campaign, but has backed itself into corner - the monetary equivalent of the Syrian crisis. It has no other front-runner. “It’s really hard to see how Obama can justify not picking Janet Yellen at this point. Nobody else is as qualified; any other choice would look like spite,” said Princeton professor Paul Krugman.

This commentary by Ambrose Evans-Pritchard was posted on the telegraph.co.uk Internet site early on Monday evening BST...and it's the first offering of the day from Roy Stephens.

Brazil Spurns U.S. State Visit Invitation Over NSA Spying

President Dilma Rousseff of Brazil has postponed a planned official visit to Washington amid fallout over revelations that the U.S. has been spying on her government, the Associated Press reports. Leaks from former-National Security Agency contractor Edward Snowden revealed, among other things, extensive spying by the U.S. on countries in Latin America, for which regional heavyweights like Mexico and Brazil already rebuked the U.S. Brazil in particular has reportedly been a primary target of NSA spying—with reports by Brazil’s Globo TV, alleging the agency had spied extensively on the internal communications of the Rousseff administration and on the country’s state-owned oil company Petrobras. The allegations awoke the region’s age-old distrust and resentment of yanqui imperialism.

Indefinitely postponing—in effect, canceling—an official state visit is a symbolic and significant move. Brazil’s last official state visit to the United States, with full state dinner and all attendant pomp and circumstance, was nearly two decades ago, in 1995. According to the Brazilian president’s office, Obama called Rousseff late Monday in an attempt to coax her into keeping to the plan, but he reportedly refused her demand that the U.S. issue an official public apology for its spying program, leading Rousseff to call off the trip.

This article was posted on the world.time.com Internet site sometime yesterday...and I thank Casey Research's own Nick Giambruno for sending it around yesterday.

Barclays Is Still Paying for Qatar's Bad 'Advice'

Barclays is off raising $9.2 billion to shore up its capital, and the prospectus has a rather awkward disclosure, which is that British regulators are planning to fine Barclays $79 million because the last time it raised a bunch of capital it maybe lied to shareholders to cover up the bribes it paid to Qatari investors to buy its shares. But that was, like, almost five years ago, so surely there are no hard feelings?

What else was happening five years ago? Bad things is the short answer; there are longer answers. Barclays needs the billions it's raising now to comply with capital requirements; it needed the billions it raised in late 2008 to survive.

It was not alone in this. If you're a bank and things have gone terribly wrong for you, one thing you might want to do is raise some money by selling stock. This can be hard because everyone tends to know that things have gone wrong for you, but they have trouble knowing how wrong, so their sensible inclination is to assume the worst. Markets for lemons, etc.

This op-ed piece by Bloomberg columnist Matt Levine is a hoot to read, as you couldn't make this stuff up if you tried.  It's on the longish side, but worth it if you have the time.  I thank U.A.E. reader Laurent-Patrick Gally for bringing it to our attention.

Going Nowhere: France Opts for Meek Reforms and Hope

French President François Hollande's announced reforms have either been delayed or watered down so much that they will do little to address his country's pressing problems. Fearing unrest, he prefers hope over hardship.

The weeks following the summer recess were widely expected to be a time for Hollande to set a new course. The announcement of a coming large-scale pension reform was meant to demonstrate that the president was capable of taking decisive action on a fundamental issue. But that reform, which has now been unveiled, has primarily demonstrated one thing: that Hollande doesn't believe in large-scale reform.

The pension reform didn't touch France's retirement age or the special rules that apply to government employees. Instead, both employees and employers are to pay more contributions, with the number of years of contributions required before qualifying for a full pension being raised to 43 by 2035.

Making more profound change would bring with it "the risk that many people would take to the streets, without the certainty that we would be able to see the reform through to the end," Hollande told Le Monde in justifying his decision.

This short story was posted on the German website spiegel.de yesterday...and long before you get through reading it, you'll see just how hopeless the situation is for France.  Pretty much all of Europe is in this condition.  I thank Roy Stephens for his second offering in today's column...and it'

Charges Could Still Be Coming for Some Close to Madoff

Posted: 18 Sep 2013 02:25 AM PDT

Charges Could Still Be Coming for Some Close to Madoff

With federal prosecutors in Manhattan facing a December deadline to bring additional charges connected to Bernard L. Madoff’s multibillion-dollar Ponzi scheme, they are weighing criminal charges against several people connected to the case, said people briefed on the investigation. Among those still under scrutiny are Shana Madoff Swanson, a senior executive at the firm, and Paul J. Konigsberg, a longtime accountant in Mr. Madoff’s inner circle.

Investigators have examined several dozen people related to the case. Including Mr. Madoff, who is serving a 150-year prison sentence, nine have pleaded guilty. When Mr. Madoff confessed in December 2008, that started the clock ticking on a five-year statute of limitations to bring securities fraud charges.

Any new charges would come just weeks before the first criminal trial related to the Madoff case. On Oct. 7, five former employees of Bernard L. Madoff Investment Securities are scheduled to stand trial in Federal District Court in Manhattan on charges they aided the fraud. Each of the five employees — Daniel Bonventre, Annette Bongiorno, Joann Crupi, Jerome O’Hara and George Perez — worked at the firm for more than 15 years.

This article was posted on The New York Times website last evening...and I thank Phil Barlett for sending it.  Phil had this to say in his covering e-mail..."And Jon Corzine frolics on a beach somewhere tomorrow morning with a 30-something year-old. Meanwhile, Gary Gensler, Bart Chilton...and their most benevolent benefactor, Jamie Dimon, sleep restfully. Otherwise, everything seems to be going on just fine here in the USSA."

Three King World News Blogs

Posted: 18 Sep 2013 02:25 AM PDT

Three King World News Blogs

1. The first interview is with Eric Pomboy...and it's entitled "Here's Why There is a War In Gold Near the Key $1,300 Level".  2. The second commentary is with Egon von Greyerz: "Major Shortage of Physical Gold" Has Fed Greatly Concerned".  3. The last one is with Robert Fitzwilson.  It bears the headline "Here Are the Opportunities For Investors to Make a Fortune".

[Although I post all of Eric King's interviews, I wish to go on the record as saying that I don't necessarily agree with everything that's said by some of his guests. - Ed]

Santelli's peek at FOMC expectations and new Fed head

Posted: 18 Sep 2013 02:25 AM PDT

Santelli's peek at FOMC expectations and new Fed head

The reason I'm posting this 3:30 minute CNBC video clip from yesterday, is what is said about the rallies in gold and silver prices last Friday afternoon when they moved strongly higher into the close.  Even I commented on that in my Saturday column.  There's a bit more here, and those comments begin at the 1:30 minute mark.  I thank reader Joseph Kahan for sending me this short clip.

Fake 10-Ounce Silver Bars Reported

Posted: 18 Sep 2013 02:25 AM PDT

Fake 10-Ounce Silver Bars Reported

Last Friday, Sept. 13, a customer came into our store in Lansing, Michigan, with some genuine silver dollars plus two specimens of what he claimed were struck Engelhard 10-ounce 0.999 fine silver ingots of the variety that had the globe on the front (not the eagle as used in later issues). One was wrapped in plastic, while the other was not.

The employee assisting this customer immediately knew the pieces were counterfeit as they were too large. Genuine struck Engelhard 10-ounce ingots are about 90 millimeters high and 45mm wide. These two pieces were each about 120mm high (4.8 inches) and 60mm wide. Please see the accompanying photographs showing how these measure against a ruler.

The piece with the plastic was put on a scale. Including the plastic, total weight came out to 9.66 troy ounces, far too light to be genuine.

This very short news item was posted on the numismaster.com Internet site yesterday...and my thanks go out to reader Tolling Jennings for sharing it with us.

Silver & Gold vs. Stocks & Real Estate - Where Are We in the Cycle?

Posted: 18 Sep 2013 02:25 AM PDT

Silver & Gold vs. Stocks & Real Estate - Where Are We in the Cycle?

This 30-minute video featuring Mike Maloney was posted on their Internet site yesterday.  I haven't had time to watch it, but I would think that you would find something of value in it.

I was disappointed that Mike, when talking about the drive-by shooting in silver on May 1, 2011, never mentioned the fact that it was JPMorgan et al that killed the price by six bucks in thirteen minutes at the Sunday night open in New York.  It had nothing to do with "a greed-driven mania", which is the reason he states.

No "for profit" seller ever sells a position in anything in such a way as to get the least amount of money for it...and that's what happened that night.

I know what a "greed-driven mania" in gold and silver looks like, as I lived through the last one in the late 1970s and early 1980s.  Every person and their dog wanted to own gold and silver, and the lines to buy it stretched for blocks.  That's a mania...and what we had in 2011 was light years away from that.

I'll let you know when this one really gets started.

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