Gold World News Flash |
- The Hard Lesson of Lehmans for a Gold Bear
- The Weekend Vigilante
- Your Wealth To BE SEIZED: Hoffman | Nielson
- COMEX Deliverable Gold Bullion Has Plunged By 78% in 2013 – Claims Per Ounce Highest On Record
- Dollar Heading Down For Years, Gold and Silver To Surpass Recent Highs
- Goldman’s Currie – Gold Heading Lower due to Improving U.S. Economy
- Goldman’s Currie – Gold Heading Lower due to Improving U.S. Economy
- Gilder, Mundell, Vieira to speak at CMRE's October dinner meeting in New York
- Gold repatriation movement arises in Finland
- Gold market noticed disclosure about JPM, Pento tells King World News
- John Rubino on the Collapse of the Dollar
- GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis
- Damaged Weekly Charts
- BAML Warns "If The US Economy Does Not Significantly Accelerate Now, It Never Will"
- Dare To Question Argentina's Inflation Data, Prepare To Go To Jail
- More Fallout - Crushing JPM Gold & Silver Whistleblower News
- COMEX Deliverable Gold Bullion Plunges By 78% in 2013
- Guest Post: 5 Years Of Financial Non-Reform
- Mass Delusion and the Myth of Deleveraging
- Jim’s Mailbox
- This Past Week in Gold
- Market Monitor – September 14th
- Andrew Maguire confirms Gold Manipulation
- DAMAGED WEEKLY CHARTS
- Rationale For Owning Gold In The Coming Deflationary Bust
- Fed’s Potential QE3-Tapering Impact On Precious Metals Prices
- Gold and Oil, Where to Go if the Middle East Explodes!
- Barrick Gold Miner Gets 10 out of 10
- Hope Against Hope in Gold Prices
- Hope Against Hope in Gold Prices
- "Very Positive" on Gold Prices
- "Very Positive" on Gold Prices
- Gold In India: Did Gold Stop to Respond to the Rupee Price Moves?
- Gold Beat Stocks Since Lehmans, But Price Sinks as Tapering Beats Debt Ceiling Fears
- Blinder, Summers and Monetary Policy
- Like I Said: It Ain't Over Till it's Over
- COMEX Deliverable Gold Bullion Has Plunged By 78% in 2013 - Claims Per Ounce Highest On Record
- COMEX Deliverable Gold Bullion Has Plunged By 78% in 2013 - Claims Per Ounce Highest On Record
- Egon von Greyerz: Today's report of confession of JPM's rigging moved gold
- The Public Debt
- Gold Prices Lost $22 Today to Close Comex at $1,308.40
- Gold Prices Lost $22 Today to Close Comex at $1,308.40
- Historic JP Morgan Whistleblower Interview Moves Markets
- What's Up With Gold?
- Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts - Gold and Silver Pressured All Day With a Big Reversal Into the Close
- Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts - Gold and Silver Pressured All Day With a Big Reversal Into the Close
- Richard’s $2 Billion Dollar (Severed) Hand
- Confessions of a Former Gold Bear
| The Hard Lesson of Lehmans for a Gold Bear Posted: 14 Sep 2013 11:06 PM PDT Bullion Vault | ||||
| Posted: 14 Sep 2013 11:00 PM PDT by Jeff Berwick, Dollar Vigilante:
It rarely rains here and even less often is it ever cold, but the last two days have been rainy and relatively chilly. A large tropical storm system is making its way northward and whipping up some chilly weather. Most of the people walking down the streets are wearing jackets and the city is abuzz about the weather with many calling their family members to make sure they are okay. The temperature? Only a high of 79F/26C in the day and dropping to a bone chilling 74F/23C at night. I didn’t even use my air conditioner last night, that’s how cold it is! | ||||
| Your Wealth To BE SEIZED: Hoffman | Nielson Posted: 14 Sep 2013 10:35 PM PDT
Writers Andy Hoffman from Miles Franklin and Jeff Nielson from Bullion Bulls Canada join us for an in-depth precious metals and monetary Ponzi update. At the front of mind is the Polish government’s announcement that it has seized 50% of privately-owned pension funds from its citizens to shore up government fiscal shortfalls. It’s a BAIL-IN, though the mockingbird media has refused to cover it. It’s Cyprus Part Deux. It’s the new trend worldwide, and Andy and Jeff warn you, it’s coming here next. | ||||
| COMEX Deliverable Gold Bullion Has Plunged By 78% in 2013 – Claims Per Ounce Highest On Record Posted: 14 Sep 2013 10:00 PM PDT from Jesse’s Café Américain:
The first chart below shows that rather nicely. Nick Laird, the maestro of charts from Sharelynx.com, was kind enough to go back and pull all the available data. It helps to complete the picture don’t you think? | ||||
| Dollar Heading Down For Years, Gold and Silver To Surpass Recent Highs Posted: 14 Sep 2013 08:30 PM PDT by Jim Sinclair, JS Mineset:
Dr. Nenner has been very accurate in gold so listening to his views is worthwhile. My job, among many others, is to get you resources beyond me and the good ole gang. Please gives this serious consideration where gold, silver, stock markets, the US Treasury bond market and the US dollar are concerned. | ||||
| Goldman’s Currie – Gold Heading Lower due to Improving U.S. Economy Posted: 14 Sep 2013 08:15 PM PDT This is the same Jeffrey Currie that publicly called to short gold ahead of the April 12 smash for gold. Currie says that the key for his negative call is confirmation evidence of the improving U.S. economy. If the data starts to improve that is what Currie thinks will ignite a new down leg for gold. Ergo, we posit that should the economic data in the U.S. show anything but improvement we would expect Mr. Currie to change his forecast then. He apparently stopped short of suggesting that traders short gold this time. Interestingly, Mr. Currie's appearance on Bloomberg happens to coincide with an increase in hedge fund net selling of gold futures in the most recent CFTC commitments of traders data as of September 10. That should surprise no one. Goldman Sachs is well known for jawboning its book.
Source: Bloomberg http://www.bloomberg.com/video/goldman-sees-risk-of-gold-below-1-000-dYDi6HrfTfK1~pUfLTtX_A.html | ||||
| Goldman’s Currie – Gold Heading Lower due to Improving U.S. Economy Posted: 14 Sep 2013 08:15 PM PDT This is the same Jeffrey Currie that publicly called to short gold ahead of the April 12 smash for gold. Currie says that the key for his negative call is confirmation evidence of the improving U.S. economy. If the data starts to improve that is what Currie thinks will ignite a new down leg for gold. Ergo, we posit that should the economic data in the U.S. show anything but improvement we would expect Mr. Currie to change his forecast then. He apparently stopped short of suggesting that traders short gold this time. Interestingly, Mr. Currie's appearance on Bloomberg happens to coincide with an increase in hedge fund net selling of gold futures in the most recent CFTC commitments of traders data as of September 10. That should surprise no one. Goldman Sachs is well known for jawboning its book.
Source: Bloomberg http://www.bloomberg.com/video/goldman-sees-risk-of-gold-below-1-000-dYDi6HrfTfK1~pUfLTtX_A.html | ||||
| Gilder, Mundell, Vieira to speak at CMRE's October dinner meeting in New York Posted: 14 Sep 2013 07:59 PM PDT 11p ET Saturday, September 14, 2013 Dear Friend of GATA and Gold: Economist and fund manager George Gilder, Nobel Prize-winning economist Robert Mundell, and monetary historian Edward Vieira will be among the speakers at the fall dinner meeting of the Committee for Monetary Research and Education, to be held Thursday, October 24, at the 3 West Club, 3 West 51st St., New York. The theme of the meeting will be: "Is It Time To Reboot The Nation -- Its Economy and Its Money?" Also speaking will be Cato Institute Senior Fellow and Forbes columnist Steve H. Hanke; historian and market strategist Bob Hoye; Capital Alpha Partners Managing Director James Lucier; monetary historian Thomas Selgas; fund manager Victor Sperandeo; and monetary historian and lawyer Walker F. Todd. Admission will be $175 for CMRE members and spouses, $185 for others. A reservation form is posted at GATA's Internet site here: http://www.gata.org/files/CMREReservationFormOctober2013.doc Questions may be directed to CMRE President Elizabeth Currier at CMRE@BellSouth.net. CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer ADVERTISEMENT Don't Let Cyprus Happen to You Depositors at the Bank of Cyprus lost 47.5 percent of their savings. So to preserve your wealth, get some of it outside the banking system into physical gold and silver. Worldwide Precious Metals (Canada) Ltd., established in 2001, specializes in physical gold, silver, platinum, and palladium. We offer delivery or secure and fully insured storage outside the banking system in Brinks vaults. We have access to gold and silver from trusted worldwide refineries and suppliers. And when you have an account with us you have immediate access to it for buying and selling your stored bullion. For information on owning physical precious metals in your portfolio, visit us at: www.wwpmc.com. Join GATA here: Gold Investment Symposium 2013 Mines and Money Australia New Orleans Investment Conference https://jeffersoncompanies.com/landing/speakers?IDPromotion=613011610080... * * * Support GATA by purchasing DVDs of our London conference in August 2011 or our Dawson City conference in August 2006: http://www.goldrush21.com/order.html Or by purchasing a colorful GATA T-shirt: Or a colorful poster of GATA's full-page ad in The Wall Street Journal on January 31, 2009: http://gata.org/node/wallstreetjournal Help keep GATA going GATA is a civil rights and educational organization based in the United States and tax-exempt under the U.S. Internal Revenue Code. Its e-mail dispatches are free, and you can subscribe at: To contribute to GATA, please visit:
This posting includes an audio/video/photo media file: Download Now | ||||
| Gold repatriation movement arises in Finland Posted: 14 Sep 2013 07:21 PM PDT 10p ET Saturday, September 14, 2013 Dear Friend of GATA and Gold: A gold repatriation movement has sprung up in Finland just two weeks after such a movement arose in Poland: http://www.gata.org/node/12967 The Finnish movement's Internet site is here -- https://www.kansalaisaloite.fi/fi/aloite/395 -- and our friend Ilkka Hikipaa, CEO of gold dealer KultaEeva Oy, kindly provides the translation of the movement's announcement that is appended here. CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer * * * Referendum to Bring Finland's Gold Back to Finland Objective: To execute a referendum, the purpose of which is to determine the will of the people of Finland to return Finnish gold reserves back to Finnish soil. Time for the vote: At the latest May 2014. The referendum will ask the following question: Should Finland bring its gold back to Finland? The voter should answer either yes or no. ... Dispatch continues below ... ADVERTISEMENT Don't Let Cyprus Happen to You Depositors at the Bank of Cyprus lost 47.5 percent of their savings. So to preserve your wealth, get some of it outside the banking system into physical gold and silver. Worldwide Precious Metals (Canada) Ltd., established in 2001, specializes in physical gold, silver, platinum, and palladium. We offer delivery or secure and fully insured storage outside the banking system in Brinks vaults. We have access to gold and silver from trusted worldwide refineries and suppliers. And when you have an account with us you have immediate access to it for buying and selling your stored bullion. For information on owning physical precious metals in your portfolio, visit us at: www.wwpmc.com. Gold is a strategically important asset and insurance for the country to use to ensure its currency system. During earlier currency crises, time after time gold has been the tool used to stabilize the currency's value. This stabilization restores trust in the currency. It is impossible to print more gold as you do with paper money and this is why gold is a perfectly solid way to stop the currency system from collapsing. Finland has 49.1 tons of gold. This national heritage is spread all over the world but mostly kept at the Bank of England. Most of Finland's gold is kept outside of Finland. Venezuela and Germany recently have made the decision to bring their gold back home and many other countries are seeing initiatives to do the same. This tells us that governments are getting ready for a currency crisis. Germany is bringing back its gold assets kept in the United States, which will take approximately seven years. Why delivery should take so long has not been explained but it could be a sign of difficulties. The gold markets are leveraged so much that if all people who hold contract claims to gold decided to convert their contracts into physical gold, there would not be enough gold to go around. There are far more claims to gold than there is gold itself. If more governments decide to bring their gold back to home soil, the last ones to do so could end up empty-handed. The only way for a country to use gold as insurance for its currency is if the gold is actually in its possession. When Finland's gold is kept in Finland there will be no counterparty risk. When the gold is held in another country there will always be the risk of that country seizing the gold in case of an emergency. Gold is needed more than ever in case of an emergency. The people of Finland have never been asked whether Finland should keep and hold its gold on its own. This is relevant now as the gold markets are changing significantly and the performance of currencies is unsure. Join GATA here: Gold Investment Symposium 2013 Mines and Money Australia New Orleans Investment Conference https://jeffersoncompanies.com/landing/speakers?IDPromotion=613011610080... * * * Support GATA by purchasing DVDs of our London conference in August 2011 or our Dawson City conference in August 2006: http://www.goldrush21.com/order.html Or by purchasing a colorful GATA T-shirt: Or a colorful poster of GATA's full-page ad in The Wall Street Journal on January 31, 2009: http://gata.org/node/wallstreetjournal Help keep GATA going GATA is a civil rights and educational organization based in the United States and tax-exempt under the U.S. Internal Revenue Code. Its e-mail dispatches are free, and you can subscribe at: To contribute to GATA, please visit: | ||||
| Gold market noticed disclosure about JPM, Pento tells King World News Posted: 14 Sep 2013 06:35 PM PDT 9:35p ET Saturday, September 14, 2013 Dear Friend of GATA and Gold: Market analyst Michael Pento today tells King World News that the gold market has noticed London metals trader Andrew Hepburn's disclosure via KWN Friday that two JPMorganChase employees have admitted metals market manipulation by the investment bank. Pento also remarks about the damage likely to be done to the U.S. economy if the Federal Reserve reduces its bond buying. Pento's commentary is posted at the King World News blog here: http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2013/9/14_Mo... CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer ADVERTISEMENT Precious Metals Round Table: On Tuesday, September 24, Sprott Asset Management will assemble four experts for a live Internet broadcast about the prospects for the precious metals. Participating will be Sprott's CEO, Eric Sprott; financial letter writer and internationally renowned conference speaker Marc Faber; Sprott's chief investment strategist, John Embry; and Sprott Asset Management President Rick Rule. To participate, please visit: https://event.on24.com/eventRegistration/EventLobbyServlet?target=regist... Join GATA here: Gold Investment Symposium 2013 Mines and Money Australia New Orleans Investment Conference https://jeffersoncompanies.com/landing/speakers?IDPromotion=613011610080... * * * Support GATA by purchasing DVDs of our London conference in August 2011 or our Dawson City conference in August 2006: http://www.goldrush21.com/order.html Or by purchasing a colorful GATA T-shirt: Or a colorful poster of GATA's full-page ad in The Wall Street Journal on January 31, 2009: http://gata.org/node/wallstreetjournal Help keep GATA going GATA is a civil rights and educational organization based in the United States and tax-exempt under the U.S. Internal Revenue Code. Its e-mail dispatches are free, and you can subscribe at: To contribute to GATA, please visit: | ||||
| John Rubino on the Collapse of the Dollar Posted: 14 Sep 2013 06:27 PM PDT from Prepper Recon: | ||||
| GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis Posted: 14 Sep 2013 06:03 PM PDT Last analysis expected downwards movement to a short term target at 1,308. Price reached down to 3.02 below the target before turning upwards, but it did not manage to stay within the narrowly drawn channel on the hourly chart. Read More... | ||||
| Posted: 14 Sep 2013 04:35 PM PDT As I mentioned in my last post there is a disturbing possibility that gold's intermediate cycle has topped, and done so in a left translated manner. For clarification, left translated cycles often lead to lower lows. In this case if gold ... Read More... | ||||
| BAML Warns "If The US Economy Does Not Significantly Accelerate Now, It Never Will" Posted: 14 Sep 2013 04:31 PM PDT Significant monetary stimulus, the end of fiscal austerity, a booming housing market, a cheap dollar, record corporate cash balances... BofAML warns - if the US economy does not significantly accelerate in coming quarters, it never will. Crucially, they note, asset prices will not do as well in the next 5 years, no matter what the "nouveau bulls" say. Central banks will be less generous, corporations less selfish. And when excess liquidity is removed it will get "CRASHy" as we discussed previously. In the meantime, five years after Lehman, Wall Street has soared, but Main Street has soured. After Lehman... An unprecedented financial and economic crisis, crystallized by the September 15th 2008 bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers, was followed by an unprecedented monetary policy response, which in turn has been followed by unprecedented bull markets in bonds, stocks and now real estate. Wall Street has soared, but Main Street has soured. The exceptional "sweet spot" engendered by generous central banks and selfish corporations has been great for owners of capital, but bad for labor.
Wall Street vs Main Street
The "race to reflate" in the developed world and faltering Chinese macro leadership dictated the winners & losers of the past 5 years: Gold, High Yield, EM debt & Asian equities have been big winners; Commodities, Government Bonds & Japanese equities have been the big losers.
QE was the prime driver of the '09 trough in stocks & the '11 trough in real estate, and liquidity withdrawal has driven the jump in global interest rates in 2013. A further rapid, jump in rates would destabilize asset markets, but this threat remains low in coming quarters. The 100 basis point summer surge in the 30-year Treasury yield has tethered the S&P500 index to a tight 1600-1700 range and traumatized many fixed income & emerging markets.
We previously discussed BofAML's CRASH meme here - Conflict (policy, military), Rates (liquidity), Asia, Speculation (forced selling) and Housing are all potential catalysts for a much more contagious autumn market event - it is well worth a reminder.
Source: BofAML | ||||
| Dare To Question Argentina's Inflation Data, Prepare To Go To Jail Posted: 14 Sep 2013 02:59 PM PDT Back in April, we saw that merely asking the local economy minister what Argentina's rate of inflation is, was enough to prematurely terminate any interview and result in a mocking, viral twitter meme. Since then, things for Argentina haven't exactly worked out too well: a recent Appeals court ruling found in favor of Elliott and the holdout bondholders, resulting in a downgrade of the country to CCC+, and leaving it with the possibility of having to fund billions in deferred obligations. "The lawsuit could result in the interruption of payments on bonds currently under New York jurisdiction, or it could prompt Argentina to undertake a debt exchange that we could view as distressed," S&P said in the statement. "There is at least a one-in-three chance of either occurring within the coming 12 months." Of course, to many the fact that Argentina has still not redefaulted is even more surprising. The reason for that is that despite president Fernandez ongoing rose-colored glasses PR campaign, the domestic economy has been deteriorating at an accelerating pace with runaway inflation destroying local purchasing power for years. As a result of the ongoing authoritarian crackdown on not only individual liberties, but economic data, it has gotten to the point that the government is criminally prosecuting anyone who dares to publish independent inflation data. Because when the truth conflicts with propaganda, either the "truth" is made up, as the BLS showed last week, or it becomes a crime to report the truth. AP attempts to explain this surreal turn of events:
So what is a country on the precipice of a full "faith and credit" collapse to do? Since there is no downside, just take it to the next level.
That Argentina has had a long-running tradition of lying about its economy is no secret:
Something tells us the Billion Prices Project would not flourish in Argentina. And since the "judges" in this particular Banana republic belong to the administration, they will only do what they are told from above, which is the diametrical opposite of actual justice. Finally, speaking of Banana republics, at least for now, the BLS merely endorses the "computer upgrade" of its systems on weeks when the data does not comply with the fiction, or simply dumps a massive one-time adjustment in one month and hopes it will all be forgotten. The good news, is that reporting the truth is still not punishable by jail. At least not yet. | ||||
| More Fallout - Crushing JPM Gold & Silver Whistleblower News Posted: 14 Sep 2013 01:59 PM PDT  Today one of the top economists in the world spoke with KWN in the aftermath of the dramatic developments surrounding yesterday's breaking news from King World News that two JP Morgan whistleblowers had confessed that JP Morgan manipulates the gold and silver markets. This is a powerful discussion with Michael Pento, and the interview ends with a timely and exclusive piece from the acclaimed economist.This posting includes an audio/video/photo media file: Download Now | ||||
| COMEX Deliverable Gold Bullion Plunges By 78% in 2013 Posted: 14 Sep 2013 01:25 PM PDT The last time that the claims per ounce were nearly this high was in the late 1990's. At that time the central banks had to intervene to keep one or more bullion banks from faltering. It occurred during a period of coordinated bullion selling from the central banks into the market under the Washington Agreement, culminating in the notorious gold dumping known as Brown's Bottom. At least the Germans still have a receipt. That selling failed to hold the line, and shortly thereafter gold began its great bull market run. | ||||
| Guest Post: 5 Years Of Financial Non-Reform Posted: 14 Sep 2013 12:59 PM PDT Authored by Anat Admati, originally posted at Project Syndicate, Five years after the collapse of Lehman Brothers triggered the largest global financial crisis since the Great Depression, outsize banking sectors have left economies shattered in Ireland, Iceland, and Cyprus. Banks in Italy, Spain, and elsewhere are not lending enough. China's credit binge is turning into a bust. In short, the world's financial system remains dangerous and dysfunctional. Worse, despite years of debate, no consensus about the nature of the financial system's problems – much less how to fix them – has emerged. And that appears to reflect the banks' political power. For example, Vince Cable, the United Kingdom's business secretary, recently accused Bank of England regulators – whom he called "capital Taliban" – of holding back the country's economic recovery by imposing excessive burdens on banks. Cable appears to believe the banks' lobbyists when they claim that lending and growth would suffer if banks were forced to "hold more capital." Such claims by senior policymakers are hardly unique to the UK; but they are false and misleading. Bank capital is not cash reserves that must be "set aside"; it is unborrowed money that can be used to make loans. Simply put, lending and economic growth have suffered since 2007 because highly indebted financial institutions could not absorb their losses, not because of regulations that sought to reduce their indebtedness. The regulations in place when the crisis erupted were both inadequate and inadequately enforced, and the reforms proposed since then do little better. The proposed Basel III reforms, for example, would allow banks to fund up to 97% of their assets with borrowed money; some investments could be made entirely by borrowed funds. The perils of this approach should be obvious by now. When homeowners cannot pay their mortgages, they may lose their house, blighting the entire neighborhood. The same is true of financial institutions, as the Lehman bankruptcy showed. Moreover, the effects of heavy borrowing are felt before borrowers default. Distressed or "underwater" homeowners do not invest much in maintenance or improvements. Similarly, weak banks with overhanging debts that prevent them from funding worthy investments are a drag on the economy. Flawed regulations further distort weak banks' behavior – for example, by biasing them in favor of making loans to governments or investing in marketable securities over lending to businesses. Regulators too often tolerate, and sometimes support, weak banks, denying the reality of their dire condition. This is counterproductive. Instead, regulators must take forceful steps to unwind zombie banks and compel viable banks to rely more on equity markets, where risk is traded and priced, to become stronger. Banning payouts to shareholders and requiring banks to raise funds by selling new shares would bolster them without restricting their ability to lend. Banks that cannot sell their shares at any price may be too weak to survive without subsidies. Such banks are dysfunctional and must be unwound. If we want safer and healthier banks, there can be no substitute for requiring banks to reduce their reliance on borrowing. As lenders, banks lose when borrowers default. Banks themselves, however, are the heaviest borrowers, routinely funding more than 90% – and sometimes more than 95% – of their investments by taking on debt. (By contrast, non-financial corporations rarely borrow more than 70% of their assets, and often much less, despite the absence of any regulation of their leverage ratios.) Cyprus illustrates the problem. Beginning in 2010, Cypriot banks invested some of their deposits in Greek government bonds, which promised interest rates of more than 10% – sometimes even 15% or 20%. As long as Greece paid these high rates, Cypriot banks could pay their depositors attractive rates, such as 4.5%, and thrive. Cypriot banks passed stress tests in July 2011. Yet, in early 2012, their Greek bonds lost 75% of their value. Because the banks made their investments with too little unborrowed money, they became insolvent. After being kept afloat for a year with help from the European Central Bank, the Cypriot banks were forced to face their losses. One was shut. Deposits over €100,000 ($133,000) incurred losses. Eurozone taxpayers provided €10 billion in bailout funds. Remarkably, regulators had allowed Cypriot banks to engage in the practices that led to their troubles. Although investing in Greek bonds was risky – reflected in the high rates the bonds promised – the regulations ignored the possibility of a loss. While the upside of the risks played out, the banks' profits benefited their shareholders and managers, politicians were happy, and the banks grew enormously relative to the economy. The proposed Basel III regulations set wholly insufficient minimum capital requirements and maintain a failed approach to adjusting the requirements to risk. Within the eurozone, for example, banks can extend loans to any government using exclusively borrowed money. The French-Belgian bank Dexia, like Cypriot banks and many others since 2008, failed or were bailed out from losses on risky investments that regulators had considered safe. Regulations everywhere appear to be based on the false notion that banks should have "just enough" equity. Equity is not scarce for viable banks, and the "science" of complex risk weights and stress tests is a harmful illusion. Instead, regulation should seek to force banks' investors to bear much more of their own risk, and thus to care much more about managing it, in order to limit the collateral damage of their excessive borrowing. Some say that banks are inherently special, because they allocate society's savings and create liquidity. In fact, banks have become special mainly in their ability to get away with so much gambling at others' expense. Nothing about financial intermediation justifies allowing banks to distort the economy and endanger the public as much as they do. Unfortunately, despite the enormous harm from the financial crisis, little has changed in the politics of banking. Too many politicians and regulators put their own interests and those of "their" banks ahead of their duty to protect taxpayers and citizens. We must demand better. | ||||
| Mass Delusion and the Myth of Deleveraging Posted: 14 Sep 2013 11:48 AM PDT Prudent Bear's Doug Noland marks the fifth anniversary of the collapse of Lehman Brothers — and the near-collapse of the global financial system — by asking whether the system’s flaws have been fixed.
Some thoughts Noland gets it right: nothing was fixed after 2008, just as nothing was fixed after the housing, tech stock and junk bond bubbles burst. The response has been the same each time, only progressively more aggressive and experimental. That the financial, economic and political mainstream think that the system has been reset to "normal" because asset prices are back where they were just before the 2008 crash is, well, crazy. With financial imbalances bigger than ever before – and continuing to expand – the only possible outcome is an even bigger crash. Each of the previous bubbles in this cycle have been unique so there's no reason to expect this one to look like the others, but there is reason to believe that this one, centering on government bonds, will be more far-reaching when it bursts. The tech stock crash mainly impacted speculators, while the housing bust primarily hit the financial sector. But the bursting of the government bond bubble will push up interest rates, which means everyone's cost of money will rise, maybe dramatically. And with about $400 trillion of interest rate swaps outstanding, sudden interest rate volatility will do to that part of the casino what the mortgage bust did to credit default swaps: blow it up. | ||||
| Posted: 14 Sep 2013 09:06 AM PDT Hi Jim, I’m a Canadian with shares in Sprott Physical Bullion Trusts and a couple of gold miners held in a few Canadian brokerage accounts. The accounts are "cash" accounts (with zero debt). My shares are in street name. According to the "terms and conditions" the impression I get is that only margin/indebted accounts are... Read more » The post Jim’s Mailbox appeared first on Jim Sinclair's Mineset. | ||||
| Posted: 14 Sep 2013 08:41 AM PDT Summary: Long term - on major sell signal since Mar 2012. Short term - on sell signals. Gold sector cycle - down as of 9/13. Read More... | ||||
| Market Monitor – September 14th Posted: 14 Sep 2013 08:11 AM PDT Top Market Stories For September 14th, 2013: COMEX Deliverable Gold Bullion Has Plunged By 78% in 2013 - Claims Per Ounce Highest On Record - Jesse's Cafe Jumping Chinese gold imports on pace to 1,000 tonnes - Mineweb Goldman warns gold could fall to $1,000 or lower. HSBC disagrees - Mineweb Indian government officials covet | ||||
| Andrew Maguire confirms Gold Manipulation Posted: 14 Sep 2013 08:10 AM PDT King World News has just published an extraordinary interview with Andrew Maguire in which he states that two JP Morgan whistleblowers have confirmed that the bank was actively manipulating the gold market. This confirms what many of us have been convinced of for years. The time for the rigging of the gold market will come to an end and probably a lot sooner than many believe. And when it does, the distrust in the paper gold market combined with an acute shortage of physical gold will drive the gold price to much higher levels. The move will of course also be fuelled by continued and massive money printing in most countries and especially in the USA, Eurozone, UK and Japan.
Gold is likely to reach new highs within the next 12 months and my targets of $2,500 for gold and $70 for silver during 2014 still stand. The longer term price objectives will be multiples of these levels. Here is the link to the interview with Andrew Maguire Egon von Greyerz | ||||
| Posted: 14 Sep 2013 08:03 AM PDT As I mentioned in my last post there is a disturbing possibility that gold's intermediate cycle has topped, and done so in a left translated manner. For clarification, left translated cycles often lead to lower lows. In this case if gold did top on week 9 and the intermediate cycle is now in decline, then the odds are high we are going to see the June low of $1179 tested and broken before the next intermediate bottom. Whenever I'm not sure about direction the first thing I do is go to the weekly charts. You can see in the three charts below that the Thursday premarket hit did serious damage to the entire sector.    Just based on those three charts the sector is screaming that an intermediate top has formed. At the very least I think one has to wait until these three weekly charts are repaired before risking further long exposure to the sector. Keep in mind I'm not recommending selling short, the daily cycle is due to bounce soon, probably on the FOMC statement. But there is a strong possibility that bounce will be a fakeout to drawn in another round of buyers only to reverse and head back down again. I continue to think this is a high stakes game where big money insiders are trying to lower the starting point before the bubble phase of the gold bull begins. As I've noted before if one can artificially lower the beginning of the bubble phase to let's say $1000 instead of where it naturally occurred last summer at $1550, then the profit potential once the bubble phase begins is dramatically magnified. I'm convinced the force behind this is trying to drive gold back down to the prior C-wave top at $1030 before reversing course and riding the bubble phase of gold into a top somewhere above $5000. It remains to be seen if they will accomplish their goal, but they did succeed in forcing gold back below the critical $1350 support level on Thursday's premarket hit.  At this point the bulls are back on the defensive. They have to at the very least recover that $1350 level before they have any chance at repairing those weekly charts. $10 one week trial subscription       | ||||
| Rationale For Owning Gold In The Coming Deflationary Bust Posted: 14 Sep 2013 05:44 AM PDT People mostly think that gold protects purchasing power during periods of inflation. While that is true, it is not the only truth. The investment narrative does not consider gold’s value during deflationary periods. Why should anyone be concerned about deflation when the monetary base of key Western economies is inflating like never before in history of mankind? The short answer is that deflationary and inflationary forces are currently working simulataneously in our economy. At the basis of this phenomenon are boom-and-bust cycles, which are driven by central banks (prohibiting the proper working of free market forces). Loose monetary policies of central banks do not allow a recession to clean out the inefficient resources and investments in the economy, resulting in intensifying deflationary forces. Jim Rickards recently has explained deflation and inflation this way:
Investor and economic scholar Marc Faber takes the deflationary idea one step further. In a recent interview (see video below) he appears convinced that a deflationary bust is inevitable. The only uncertaintly appears to be timing. In his own words: “It could happen tomorrow, in five or ten years time.”
There you have the rationale on owning gold and even accumulate it when the signs of a deflationary collapse would pop up. Although Faber did not mention it explicitly, it is interesting to see how his view is in line with Exeter’s inverted pyramid (also, Exeter’s golden pyramid). The pyramid visualizes the organization of financial asset classes in terms of risk and size. Gold forms the small base of most reliable value, and asset classes on progressively higher levels are more risky. Wikipedia notes that while Exter’s original pyramid placed Third World debt at the top, today derivatives hold this dubious honor. Professor Fekete provided an explanatory note back in 2007:
The scramble for safety in the form of physical (!) gold is not new, although people in the West mostly do not recognize gold’s monetary value. Sound money expert Claudio Grass from Global Gold Switzerland points out that throughout monetary history the investment focus has always shifted from capital growth to capital preservation during periods of profound deflation. “Deflation thus always comes with falling confidence in the (perceived) root cause of the crisis (governments, banks, speculators, etc.) and their rating. Therefore the purchasing power of Gold gains also within a deflationary scenario.” | ||||
| Fed’s Potential QE3-Tapering Impact On Precious Metals Prices Posted: 14 Sep 2013 05:06 AM PDT The Federal Reserve's upcoming decision on whether to slow its third quantitative-easing campaign's debt monetizations has to be this year's most-highly-anticipated market event. Traders have been trying to game the odds of QE3 tapering literally all year long, driving some sharp market moves. So the Federal Open Market Committee's decision due out next Wednesday is likely to be a major market-moving event. The focus on this imminent FOMC meeting is so hyper-intense that its impact should be considerable no matter what the Fed decides. The QE3 taper (or lack thereof), its size, and what the FOMC implies for future tapering will almost certainly spark sharp price reactions in the bond markets, currency markets, stock markets, and precious metals. All have moved violently this year on mere QE3-taper anticipation. There are strong arguments on both sides of the Fed starting slowing down QE3 next week or waiting until later. With Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke due to retire on January 31st, most believe he really wants to start unwinding his unprecedented quantitative-easing programs on his own watch. He is worried about his legacy, how history will view the largest debt monetizations ever that were his brainchild. Bernanke has spent months painstakingly telegraphing to traders that he'd like to start slowing QE3 at this September FOMC meeting. If the Fed doesn't taper after setting expectations so high, it is going to take a big credibility hit with the markets. Not tapering will likely also be interpreted by traders as the Fed viewing the US economy as deteriorating, which could spark a big stock-market selloff from lofty heights. Tapering QE3 is probably less risky at the FOMC's September 18th meeting than its next October 30th one because the former is one of the four per year (out of eight) that are followed by a Bernanke press conference. So if the market reaction is adverse to the taper, Bernanke will have a chance to explain the FOMC's thought process soon after the decision. Thus most traders believe tapering begins next week. But this decision is far more complicated than Bernanke's comfort and the Fed's credibility. Between the FOMC's May 1st meeting and last week, mere QE3-tapering fears have catapulted the benchmark 10-year US Treasury yield from 1.66% to 2.98%! This epic 4/5ths rally in yields is the result of a massive bond rout. Bond investors are fleeing Treasuries, worried that the dominating buyer (Fed) is pulling back. Higher bond yields wreak havoc on the economy, driving up all borrowing costs. This is particularly important in the mortgage markets, since the housing recovery is absolutely essential to US jobs growth. Since the mere threat of the Fed slowing its QE3 Treasury buying sparked a colossal bond selloff, can it risk the actual event driving yields even higher? Unemployment will surge again if house buying slows. Higher interest rates are a huge threat to the US government too. Under Obama the national debt has exploded higher, yet the Fed's record-low interest rates still led to very low debt-servicing costs. If yields on Treasuries merely return to their 40-year average before Obama, the total federal interest costs alone on today's debt would skyrocket by 5x! This would consume most discretionary spending, sinking the government. Higher yields also risk triggering a bear market in stocks. One of the Fed's goals through manipulating yields down as low as possible was to force investors into risky assets like stocks. As rates rise, bonds become far more attractive again for new buyers. So higher yields could ignite an exodus out of the stock markets by investors worried about the risks posed by the very tired and overextended cyclical stock bull. The FOMC has foolishly painted itself into a very dangerous corner. It is probably damned no matter when it starts tapering QE3, with serious market disruptions likely. While bonds are ground zero, and currencies will closely follow, my primary interest as a speculator is in the American stock markets and precious metals. Whatever the Fed chooses to do next week is likely to have major impacts on them. To better understand their potential, we have to consider how the FOMC and all its QE3-tapering talk have affected them so far this year. This chart looks at the flagship S&P 500 stock index (SPX) and gold. All 2013 FOMC-meeting decisions are highlighted in black, with their subsequent minutes noted in yellow. Most of the biggest and fastest moves in stocks and gold this year are highly correlated to the FOMC.
Before QE3's birth last September, the US stock markets' tired cyclical bull had been topping. Despite multiple attempts, there hadn't been a single new high for over 5 months. But first on a European Central Bank decision to monetize bonds a week earlier, and then on the Fed's QE3 announcement, the SPX finally broke out to new bull highs. It was the Fed's first-ever open-ended quantitative-easing campaign. The timing of this decision was highly suspect politically. It was less than 8 weeks before the critical 2012 US elections. And throughout US presidential-election history, the results have had a very high correlation with the stock-market action in the Septembers and Octobers leading into them. When the SPX is up over that final 2-month span, the incumbent party has won 94% of the time. If down, it has lost 83% of the time. So Bernanke goosing the stock markets right ahead of a major election, greatly raising the odds they would be higher (and they were), almost certainly gave it to Obama. Remember that Republican lawmakers had been aggressively attacking the Fed for its QE2 debt monetizations, so the Fed faced serious political risks if the Republicans regained power. QE3 was shrouded in controversy from its birth. At its mid-December meeting, the FOMC decided to expand QE3 to include monthly Treasury buying on top of the original mortgage-backed-security buying. The minutes for that meeting were released several weeks afterwards as usual, in early January. Incredibly at the very meeting where the FOMC launched its QE3 expansion, there was already much internal dissent. Thus 2013's QE3-tapering debate began. Literally since January 3rd, when the Fed would start slowing QE3's rate of purchases has probably been the dominant driver of global financial-market sentiment. Ever since every FOMC meeting, all their minutes subsequently released, and even each speech by individual Fed officials have been carefully scrutinized for QE3-tapering implications. Whenever QE3 tapering seemed more likely, big selloffs arose. This is especially true in bonds, but our focus here is on the stock markets and gold. While other factors were at play, primarily the levitating SPX sucking capital out of the American GLD gold ETF, gold suffered its first sharp selloff in February soon after the late-January FOMC meeting. The subsequent minutes in late February saw the SPX sell off sharply. Then gold's next selloff started cascading at the mid-March meeting. Both the SPX and especially gold then plummeted when its minutes were released in mid-April. Some of the FOMC members thought QE3 tapering would start by mid-year and finish by year-end. Unfortunately for gold, these very minutes drove the metal right down to its critical $1550 support line. That soon failed, unleashing an ultra-rare futures forced liquidation that crushed the gold price in an unprecedented way. Gold's subsequent bounce from this panic-like plummet was cut short by the FOMC's next meeting in early May. And the minutes of that meeting released in late May started the biggest pullback in the SPX's levitation so far. Then both the SPX and gold plunged dramatically at the FOMC's next meeting in mid-June, which happened to be followed by the press conference where Bernanke laid out his QE3-tapering plan. Then again the SPX topped soon after the FOMC's latest late-July meeting. As you can see above, the great majority of this year's biggest and fastest moves in the SPX and gold were highly correlated with either FOMC meetings or their subsequent minutes. Charts of bond yields and the US Dollar Index show similar strong reactions to the odds of QE3 tapering rising and falling. It has dominated global markets this year! Seeing how the stock markets and gold reacted to the mere idea of QE3 tapering, how will they react next week (or later) at the actual event? There is a universal assumption among traders today that QE3 tapering is fully priced in for stocks, so the price impact will be minimal. Everyone also assumes that gold is going to get obliterated by QE3 tapering, which is understandable given its horrendous Fed reactions this year. This popular consensus may certainly be right, after the Fed starts slowing QE3 the SPX will keep on climbing higher forever and gold will plunge to zero. But ever the contrarian, I always want to take the opposite side when nearly everyone is convinced of certain outcomes. What if the levitating stock markets have not priced in a QE3 taper, but gold far more than has after being pummeled so mercilessly? Despite QE3-tapering fears driving periodic pullbacks, there is no arguing that QE3 has been exceedingly good for the SPX. Between the day before it launched and this week, this flagship stock index has soared 17.6% in exactly one year. This extended its already-old-and-big cyclical bull born in March 2009 to an astounding 152.7% gain. It also pushed its span since a correction to 22 months. These metrics far exceed healthy averages. The average cyclical stock bull in a secular bear doubles in 35 months, our current specimen is up 152.7% in 53 months! Healthy bull markets see full-blown corrections (selloffs in the high-teen percentages) once a year or so, now we are up to nearly two without one. There's a strong case to be made that QE3 was the primary driver of 2013's extraordinary SPX levitation. If QE3 was so great for stocks, how can its slowing and eventual stopping also be great for stocks? How can the QE3 taper be already priced into the SPX when this index has kept powering higher all year long even despite periodic QE3-tapering fears? With the mere threat of QE3 tapering spawning sharp pullbacks, won't the actual event also trigger a big selloff? This QE3 tapering is hyper-risky for stock markets. Gold on the other hand has already been annihilated on futures traders' intense obsession with QE3 tapering. In the year since QE3 launched, it has been pummeled down 21.2%. The second quarter in particular was monstrously brutal, gold's worst in something like a century. The gold selling triggered by and exacerbated by Fed QE3-tapering fears was wildly unprecedented on virtually every possible front. Gold's incredible selloff during QE3 is a mind-boggling anomaly. Quantitative easing is a happy-sounding euphemism for debt monetization, the highest-octane form of monetary inflation there is. When the Fed buys bonds, it simply creates the money to do so out of thin air. And in the case of Treasuries, the federal government spends this new money almost instantly which directly injects it into the real economy. QE3 is a massive open-ended inflationary event unparalleled in history. And gold thrives in inflationary times, it is the ultimate inflation hedge. During the lifespans of QE1 and QE2, gold powered higher by 50.8% and 24.7% respectively. So to see it down 21.2% so far during QE3 utterly defies belief. It makes no sense at all, absurdly illogical. And like all market anomalies, this one is super-overdue to reverse. Gold plummeted 26.4% in the first half of 2013, with QE3-tapering fears playing a major role. They helped shape the psychological backdrop that led to the mass exodus from GLD. With such a wildly unprecedented gold selloff, isn't it highly likely that QE3 tapering is long since priced in? Will this critical investment class keep plunging forever simply on fears about how fast the Fed will wind down QE3? Gold-futures traders, who are excessively fixated on the QE3 taper, are totally looking at the wrong side of it. What they should be paying attention to is the Fed's mammoth balance sheet! Every dollar of bonds the Fed purchases is a direct injection of monetary inflation. And as long as QE3 exists at all, this metric is going to keep growing. This next chart takes a look at the incredible inflation quantitative easing has baked in. This chart is stacked, showing the Fed's holdings of Treasuries (red) and mortgage-backed securities (yellow) within its total balance sheet (orange). Across it are noted key dates of FOMC meetings where major policy changes were made including quantitative easing. This gigantic and growing balance sheet is what gold-futures traders should be focusing on, not a trivial change to the rate of QE3's growth. Before uber-inflationist Ben Bernanke launched the original QE1 and forced interest rates to zero in late 2008, the Fed's balance sheet was around $890b. It has ballooned monstrously since thanks to the bond-buying campaigns of QE1, QE2, and QE3. All three of these were launched initially and then soon expanded. Between these debt-monetization sprees, the Fed's bond holdings slowly shrunk through maturing.
Before QE3 was launched last September, the Fed's balance sheet was sitting at $2798b. Last week nearly a year later (the Fed's data lags by a week), it had soared to $3607b! This is a colossal 28.9% increase in the Fed's total bond holdings in merely a year, incredible amounts of inflation unleashed from an already very-high base. Does it make any sense at all for gold to fall by over a fifth during such an event? It wasn't like gold was overbought in September 2012 when QE3 was born, which could explain poor subsequent performance. This metal had peaked 13 months earlier and was stuck in a high consolidation ever since by the time QE3 launched. Over that span it was already down 8.5%. So there was no reason at all for gold to get hammered during an epic inflationary explosion of QE3's magnitude. Back at his press conference right after the FOMC's mid-June meeting, Bernanke rocked the markets by laying out a very specific best-case QE3-tapering plan. It proposed starting the taper later this year (which was interpreted as the September FOMC meeting) and ending it entirely by mid-2014. He took great pains to emphasize this was data-dependent, that QE3's pace could still increase if economic conditions worsen. But let's assume QE3 plays out like Bernanke hopes. This month will still have $85b of purchases that will be added on to the balance sheet. Assuming an even taper, the average monthly monetizations between now and the end of June will be half that or $42.5b. Multiply those 9 months by $42.5b and you get another $383b of bond buying on top of September's $85b. That means QE3 has $468b of buying left! So far as of the end of August, QE3 is at $440b in mortgage-backed-securities buying and $360b of Treasuries buying. The total is already $800b, which is much larger than QE2's $600b of new buying. But add the additional $468b of buying on top of that in a best-case taper scenario, and QE3 is still destined to grow over half-again as large as it is today. It will propel the Fed's balance sheet over $4050b! Thus even in Bernanke's best-case QE3-tapering scenario, there is vast monetary inflation left to come. With QE3 all but guaranteed to ultimately exceed $1250b, and go much higher if there are any economic hitches, is it reasonable to expect gold to keep falling forever? No way. Beyond futures traders' paranoid gut reaction, QE3 tapering shouldn't be bearish for gold. This metal should soon soar on the rest of QE3! I suspect the probability nears certainty that gold will be considerably higher when QE3 ends than it was when it begun. It's hard to believe, but the day before QE3 was born this metal was near $1733. For all of human history, inflation has been very bullish for gold. 2013's selloff, the psychological groundwork of which was laid by QE3-tapering fears, was a wildly unprecedented anomaly. And all anomalies reverse. The contrarian view on next week everyone thinks is crazy is that QE3 tapering will be bad for stocks and good for gold after the initial reactions. It's hard to fight the crowd and think differently, but that is the only way to consistently buy low and sell high. At Zeal our contrarian approach has driven big gains. As of the end of June, all 655 of our stock trades recommended to our newsletter subscribers since 2001 have averaged annualized realized gains of +28.6%! We have long published acclaimed weekly and monthly newsletters to help speculators and investors cultivate an essential contrarian worldview. In them I draw on our decades of hard-won experience, knowledge, wisdom, and ongoing research to explain what is going on in the markets, why, and how to trade them with specific stocks as opportunities arise. Join us today, we're buying dirt-cheap elite gold stocks due to soar as gold recovers! The bottom line is the Fed's coming QE3 tapering is likely to have a major market impact. The hyper-overextended stock-market levitation is unlikely to survive the Fed reducing its debt monetizations and resulting interest-rate manipulations. Less Fed bond demand means higher yields, giving investors forced into stocks by the Fed a chance to earn yield income again. Their stock selling should snowball. And despite gold's merciless hammering this year on QE3-tapering fears, that anomaly doesn't change the fact that QE3 is massive and growing. Just like during QE1 and QE2, sooner or later gold will react to the enormous inflationary growth in the Fed's balance sheet. Even if Bernanke's best-case ideal timeline for tapering QE3 is followed, there is still colossal bond buying coming between now and next summer. | ||||
| Gold and Oil, Where to Go if the Middle East Explodes! Posted: 14 Sep 2013 01:48 AM PDT The Oil Price...if the Middle East Explodes We preface by saying that this is still a "what if" scenario... In the unlikely event that a limited strike on the Syrian government's ability to launch nerve gas on its population through air strikes, rocket attacks or artillery shells has no other effect on the religious war, then we doubt that the impact of such a strike will send shock waves throughout the Middle East. | ||||
| Barrick Gold Miner Gets 10 out of 10 Posted: 14 Sep 2013 01:39 AM PDT Barrick Gold Corp. wasn’t always a gold miner, it started as a privately held oil and gas company - Barrick Resources. After suffering huge financial losses Peter Munk, the principal shareholder, decided to focus on gold. The company’s first acquisition, in 1984, was the Renabie mine near Wawa, Ontario and it produced roughly 16,000 ounces of gold that year for Barrick. Then Barrick acquired Camflo Mining in 1984, Camflo had operations in the province of Quebec and in Nevada, U.S.A. Barrick’s next acquisition was the Mercur mine in Mercur, Utah in June 1985, followed by the Goldstrike mine, in Nevada, in 1986. | ||||
| Hope Against Hope in Gold Prices Posted: 14 Sep 2013 01:24 AM PDT Gold prices are breaking down technically, says this chart analyst... The COUNTER-TREND rally in gold prices is breaking down, writes Greg Guenthner in Addison Wiggin's The Daily Reckoning. The summer gold rally that began in late June ended overnight as the metal plunged below $1350. As of early this morning, gold is off $32, resting near its recent lows at $1330. September – a month that is usually very good for gold – has not been kind to the yellow metal so far…  I've remained skeptical of gold's summer rally since it failed to top its June highs near $1425 last month. This price was crucial for gold since it marked the consolidation area after the big dump back in April-May. When it rolled over after briefly topping $1425 just a few weeks ago, it became clear that lower gold prices were on the way. Now that the counter-trend rally is broken, I suspect gold will make a quick break toward $1200 and its 2013 lows. Keep in mind that gold continues to break down from a massive, secular bull market that lasted more than a decade. While these counter-trend rallies are great for traders, they also act as opportunities for trapped longs to unwind their positions. Many traders and investors have insisted for weeks that the June lows would become a major turning point for gold. Some even said it was the beginning of another major push toward new highs. This was simply wishful thinking. When it comes to investing, hope is a dangerous emotion. Don't allow your opinions to be swayed by hopeful investors. It only leads to losses. | ||||
| Hope Against Hope in Gold Prices Posted: 14 Sep 2013 01:24 AM PDT Gold prices are breaking down technically, says this chart analyst... The COUNTER-TREND rally in gold prices is breaking down, writes Greg Guenthner in Addison Wiggin's The Daily Reckoning. The summer gold rally that began in late June ended overnight as the metal plunged below $1350. As of early this morning, gold is off $32, resting near its recent lows at $1330. September – a month that is usually very good for gold – has not been kind to the yellow metal so far… I've remained skeptical of gold's summer rally since it failed to top its June highs near $1425 last month. This price was crucial for gold since it marked the consolidation area after the big dump back in April-May. When it rolled over after briefly topping $1425 just a few weeks ago, it became clear that lower gold prices were on the way. Now that the counter-trend rally is broken, I suspect gold will make a quick break toward $1200 and its 2013 lows. Keep in mind that gold continues to break down from a massive, secular bull market that lasted more than a decade. While these counter-trend rallies are great for traders, they also act as opportunities for trapped longs to unwind their positions. Many traders and investors have insisted for weeks that the June lows would become a major turning point for gold. Some even said it was the beginning of another major push toward new highs. This was simply wishful thinking. When it comes to investing, hope is a dangerous emotion. Don't allow your opinions to be swayed by hopeful investors. It only leads to losses. | ||||
| "Very Positive" on Gold Prices Posted: 14 Sep 2013 01:06 AM PDT Gold is cheap at these levels, reckons money manager Adrian Day... FOUNDER of Adrian Day Asset Management, Adrian Day reckons the glass is definitely half full for gold mining investors right now. Adrian Day believes that volatility in precious metal stocks will continue, but he also believes that gold's extreme bottom is behind us and macroeconomic and geopolitical conditions will continue to support prices, as he explains in this interview with The Gold Report... The Gold Report: Gold had a somewhat remarkable August. What's your view? Is the bottom behind us? Adrian Day: I think it's behind us. The principal reason gold rallied is the sense that the decline was overdone. We got an extreme bottom, and then gold started to slowly move back up. All Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke ever said was that there might be a cutback in bond buying later in the year if the economy continued to improve. That's a rather mild statement, simply saying that additional bond-buying might be reduced; nobody is talking about actually reducing the Fed's balance sheet. During the last few weeks, gold has really responded to the situation in Syria. Gold declined when the British parliament voted down joining the US strike effort. When the US Foreign Relations Committee approved action, gold went up. The third factor is short covering. The shorts both in gold and in gold stocks reached record high levels at the end of June and beginning of July. There's been a significant decline in the shorts since then, from 130,000 short future contracts held by speculators to about 71,000 in the last month, but that is still a very high level of shorts historically. TGR: You take reasonably high net-worth clients and invest them in individually managed accounts, many of which are anchored by gold assets. How are you managing the risk inherent in gold equities? Adrian Day: If you're involved in gold, it's going to be volatile. There is no way around that. We manage the risk by buying companies that are low risk. For the senior companies, that might mean diverse assets around the world not exposed to one political jurisdiction, or it might mean more royalty companies, which have a low-risk business model by definition and strong balance sheets. We buy companies that don't have any significant negatives. In the junior space, I've always thought that certain well-picked juniors with good balance sheets can be low-risk investments even if the stock price is volatile. TGR: How does the Fed's monetary policy factor into your management of gold accounts? Adrian Day: The comments from the Fed that caused gold to go down gave us the opportunity to buy quality gold stocks at much lower prices. The reaction to Fed comments was overdone. The most I've heard any analyst mention is Fed bond buying going from $85 billion a month to $65bn a month. That is still $65bn of additional money creation every month, an enormous amount of stimulus for the economy. TGR: You talked earlier about investing in low-risk or lower-risk gold assets. You've had a lot of investment success with precious metal royalty companies. Are these companies still worth the premium investors have to pay for them? Adrian Day: I'd say yes. The royalty companies make an investment, and once they do they're not responsible for anything going wrong. Just think of all the things that have gone wrong in the mining business over the last few years. That's the beauty of the business model. Essentially, you don't have the risk of mining, and mining's a very, very high-risk business. A lot of senior companies are struggling. They're closing mines, delaying projects; there are capex overruns and huge write-downs. A lot of juniors are also struggling because they don't have the cash. A company that has the cash is in a beautiful position to invest in other companies that need the money and to get a royalty in return. TGR: Do you see any value left in the gold and silver royalty space? Adrian Day: I think there's a lot of value in some of the smaller royalty companies or companies that are morphing into royalty companies. TGR: We talked about gold royalties as one way of mitigating risk in the gold space. Certainly another way is the major producers, although you wouldn't think that given their performance over the last couple of years. Adrian Day: Generally, I'm less favorable toward the major mining companies than I am toward the smaller miners or toward the royalty companies or the explorers. However, there are some good names. TGR: Do you have any parting words about the space to leave with us? Adrian Day: The reason to be positive on gold right now is, first, I think gold is cheap. The selloff was grossly overdone and it wasn't only the possibility of the Fed cutting back on stimulus, but at the same time we had concerns about China's economy. I think both of those concerns had been mitigated to a large extent. China's economy, looking at the latest manufacturing statistics, seems to have stabilized. Growth at 7.25% with low inflation is still pretty good growth and still translates into ongoing demand for gold from China. I feel very positive on gold. If the Fed tapers less than expected, that should be seen as a major positive for gold prices. Even though there has been a mining stock rally, on a historical basis these stocks are just very cheap. On any metric you care to look at: price to earnings, price to cash flow, price to ounces in the ground, price relative to gold, price relative to ounces on production, etc., the major mining companies today are as cheap as they have ever been throughout this entire bull market other than for a few weeks at the end of 2008. In 2009 the gold stocks rebounded dramatically. I feel very positive, not just on gold, but also that the gold stocks are simply not reflecting the positives in gold. TGR: You seem to be more hopeful than you have been in recent interviews. Adrian Day: Let's not say hopeful. Let's say positive, exuberant. I'm very positive about the gold price and at the same time the gold stocks are just extremely oversold in my view, the good ones and the bad ones. I feel very positive about the gold stocks right now. TGR: Thanks for your insights, Adrian. | ||||
| "Very Positive" on Gold Prices Posted: 14 Sep 2013 01:06 AM PDT Gold is cheap at these levels, reckons money manager Adrian Day... FOUNDER of Adrian Day Asset Management, Adrian Day reckons the glass is definitely half full for gold mining investors right now. Adrian Day believes that volatility in precious metal stocks will continue, but he also believes that gold's extreme bottom is behind us and macroeconomic and geopolitical conditions will continue to support prices, as he explains in this interview with The Gold Report... The Gold Report: Gold had a somewhat remarkable August. What's your view? Is the bottom behind us? Adrian Day: I think it's behind us. The principal reason gold rallied is the sense that the decline was overdone. We got an extreme bottom, and then gold started to slowly move back up. All Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke ever said was that there might be a cutback in bond buying later in the year if the economy continued to improve. That's a rather mild statement, simply saying that additional bond-buying might be reduced; nobody is talking about actually reducing the Fed's balance sheet. During the last few weeks, gold has really responded to the situation in Syria. Gold declined when the British parliament voted down joining the US strike effort. When the US Foreign Relations Committee approved action, gold went up. The third factor is short covering. The shorts both in gold and in gold stocks reached record high levels at the end of June and beginning of July. There's been a significant decline in the shorts since then, from 130,000 short future contracts held by speculators to about 71,000 in the last month, but that is still a very high level of shorts historically. TGR: You take reasonably high net-worth clients and invest them in individually managed accounts, many of which are anchored by gold assets. How are you managing the risk inherent in gold equities? Adrian Day: If you're involved in gold, it's going to be volatile. There is no way around that. We manage the risk by buying companies that are low risk. For the senior companies, that might mean diverse assets around the world not exposed to one political jurisdiction, or it might mean more royalty companies, which have a low-risk business model by definition and strong balance sheets. We buy companies that don't have any significant negatives. In the junior space, I've always thought that certain well-picked juniors with good balance sheets can be low-risk investments even if the stock price is volatile. TGR: How does the Fed's monetary policy factor into your management of gold accounts? Adrian Day: The comments from the Fed that caused gold to go down gave us the opportunity to buy quality gold stocks at much lower prices. The reaction to Fed comments was overdone. The most I've heard any analyst mention is Fed bond buying going from $85 billion a month to $65bn a month. That is still $65bn of additional money creation every month, an enormous amount of stimulus for the economy. TGR: You talked earlier about investing in low-risk or lower-risk gold assets. You've had a lot of investment success with precious metal royalty companies. Are these companies still worth the premium investors have to pay for them? Adrian Day: I'd say yes. The royalty companies make an investment, and once they do they're not responsible for anything going wrong. Just think of all the things that have gone wrong in the mining business over the last few years. That's the beauty of the business model. Essentially, you don't have the risk of mining, and mining's a very, very high-risk business. A lot of senior companies are struggling. They're closing mines, delaying projects; there are capex overruns and huge write-downs. A lot of juniors are also struggling because they don't have the cash. A company that has the cash is in a beautiful position to invest in other companies that need the money and to get a royalty in return. TGR: Do you see any value left in the gold and silver royalty space? Adrian Day: I think there's a lot of value in some of the smaller royalty companies or companies that are morphing into royalty companies. TGR: We talked about gold royalties as one way of mitigating risk in the gold space. Certainly another way is the major producers, although you wouldn't think that given their performance over the last couple of years. Adrian Day: Generally, I'm less favorable toward the major mining companies than I am toward the smaller miners or toward the royalty companies or the explorers. However, there are some good names. TGR: Do you have any parting words about the space to leave with us? Adrian Day: The reason to be positive on gold right now is, first, I think gold is cheap. The selloff was grossly overdone and it wasn't only the possibility of the Fed cutting back on stimulus, but at the same time we had concerns about China's economy. I think both of those concerns had been mitigated to a large extent. China's economy, looking at the latest manufacturing statistics, seems to have stabilized. Growth at 7.25% with low inflation is still pretty good growth and still translates into ongoing demand for gold from China. I feel very positive on gold. If the Fed tapers less than expected, that should be seen as a major positive for gold prices. Even though there has been a mining stock rally, on a historical basis these stocks are just very cheap. On any metric you care to look at: price to earnings, price to cash flow, price to ounces in the ground, price relative to gold, price relative to ounces on production, etc., the major mining companies today are as cheap as they have ever been throughout this entire bull market other than for a few weeks at the end of 2008. In 2009 the gold stocks rebounded dramatically. I feel very positive, not just on gold, but also that the gold stocks are simply not reflecting the positives in gold. TGR: You seem to be more hopeful than you have been in recent interviews. Adrian Day: Let's not say hopeful. Let's say positive, exuberant. I'm very positive about the gold price and at the same time the gold stocks are just extremely oversold in my view, the good ones and the bad ones. I feel very positive about the gold stocks right now. TGR: Thanks for your insights, Adrian. | ||||
| Gold In India: Did Gold Stop to Respond to the Rupee Price Moves? Posted: 14 Sep 2013 01:03 AM PDT Today, gold in the global market reversed early gains and fell to its lowest in more than a month as U.S. futures extended losses on fears the United States would curb its stimulus soon and as a U.S. strike on Syria looked less likely. According to Reuters, purchases from jewelers in Hong Kong and mainland China initially helped gold gain more than 0.5%, but heavy selling of New York COMEX and bullion futures on Tokyo Commodity Exchange pushed the price of gold below $1,330 per ounce. | ||||
| Gold Beat Stocks Since Lehmans, But Price Sinks as Tapering Beats Debt Ceiling Fears Posted: 14 Sep 2013 12:57 AM PDT The PRICE of GOLD marked the 5th anniversary of Lehman Brothers' collapse by sliding $25 per ounce Friday morning, finally bouncing from a new 5-week low at $1305. World stock markets held flat, while the price of crude oil rallied from a 3-week low. Silver regained 40c per ounce from a fresh 4-week low at $21.42 – some 10% below where it ended last week. | ||||
| Blinder, Summers and Monetary Policy Posted: 13 Sep 2013 07:53 PM PDT Next Sunday marks the fifth anniversary of the fateful day that investment bank Lehman Brothers filed for bankruptcy, signaling the start of a frightening financial meltdown. It's a good time to ponder how the U.S. economy was nearly brought to ruin. Read More... | ||||
| Like I Said: It Ain't Over Till it's Over Posted: 13 Sep 2013 07:51 PM PDT Silver: Though steep, the move down from 25.12 is corrective thus far. Given the duration and sideways nature of the plausible 2-wave down to 19.10, and despite its depth, the current decline vs. the brief pause from 23.60 to 22.45, appears ... Read More... | ||||
| COMEX Deliverable Gold Bullion Has Plunged By 78% in 2013 - Claims Per Ounce Highest On Record Posted: 13 Sep 2013 07:49 PM PDT | ||||
| COMEX Deliverable Gold Bullion Has Plunged By 78% in 2013 - Claims Per Ounce Highest On Record Posted: 13 Sep 2013 07:49 PM PDT | ||||
| Egon von Greyerz: Today's report of confession of JPM's rigging moved gold Posted: 13 Sep 2013 05:36 PM PDT 8:30p ET Friday, September 13, 2013 Dear Friend of GATA and Gold: Gold fund manager Egon von Greyerz, writing tonight for King World News, finds terribly significant and even market-moving today's KWN interview with London metals trader Andrew Maguire about two JPMorganChase employees who have disclosed the bank's metals market rigging to the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission: http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2013/9/13_Hi... CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer ADVERTISEMENT Buy metals at GoldMoney and enjoy international storage GoldMoney was established in 2001 by James and Geoff Turk and is safeguarding more than $1.7 billion in metals and currencies. Buy gold, silver, platinum, and palladium from GoldMoney over the Internet and store them in vaults in Canada, Hong Kong, Singapore, Switzerland, and the United Kingdom, taking advantage of GoldMoney's low storage rates, among the most competitive in the industry. GoldMoney also offers delivery of 100-gram and 1-kilogram gold bars and 1-kilogram silver bars. To learn more, please visit: http://www.goldmoney.com/?gmrefcode=gata Join GATA here: Gold Investment Symposium 2013 Mines and Money Australia New Orleans Investment Conference https://jeffersoncompanies.com/landing/speakers?IDPromotion=613011610080... * * * Support GATA by purchasing DVDs of our London conference in August 2011 or our Dawson City conference in August 2006: http://www.goldrush21.com/order.html Or by purchasing a colorful GATA T-shirt: Or a colorful poster of GATA's full-page ad in The Wall Street Journal on January 31, 2009: http://gata.org/node/wallstreetjournal Help keep GATA going GATA is a civil rights and educational organization based in the United States and tax-exempt under the U.S. Internal Revenue Code. Its e-mail dispatches are free, and you can subscribe at: To contribute to GATA, please visit: ADVERTISEMENT How to profit with silver -- Future Money Trends is offering a special 16-page silver report with our forecast for 2013 that includes profiles of nine companies and technical analysis of their stock performance. Six of the companies have market capitalizations of less than $800 million and one company has a market cap of only $30 million. The most exciting of these companies will begin production in a few weeks and has a market cap of just $150 million. Half of all proceeds from the sale of this report will be donated to the Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee to support its efforts exposing manipulation and fraud in the gold and silver markets. To learn about this report, please visit: http://www.futuremoneytrends.com/index.php?option=com_content&id=376&tmp... | ||||
| Posted: 13 Sep 2013 05:25 PM PDT Neither paper currency nor deposits have value as commodities, intrinsically; a 'dollar' bill is just a piece of paper. Deposits are merely book entries. Read More... | ||||
| Gold Prices Lost $22 Today to Close Comex at $1,308.40 Posted: 13 Sep 2013 03:30 PM PDT Gold Price Close Today : 1,308.40 Gold Price Close 5-Sep-13 : 1,373.10 Change : -64.70 or -4.7% Silver Price Close Today : 21.67 Silver Price Close 5-Sep-13 : 23.206 Change : -1.536 or -6.6% Gold Silver Ratio Today : 60.378 Gold Silver Ratio 5-Sep-13 : 59.170 Change : 1.21 or 2.0% Silver Gold Ratio : 0.01656 Silver Gold Ratio 5-Sep-13 : 0.01690 Change : -0.00034 or -2.0% Dow in Gold Dollars : $ 242.93 Dow in Gold Dollars 5-Sep-13 : $ 224.88 Change : $18.05 or 8.0% Dow in Gold Ounces : 11.752 Dow in Gold Ounces 5-Sep-13 : 10.879 Change : 0.87 or 8.0% Dow in Silver Ounces : 709.56 Dow in Silver Ounces 5-Sep-13 : 643.69 Change : 65.86 or 10.2% Dow Industrial : 15,376.06 Dow Industrial 5-Sep-13 : 14,937.48 Change : 438.58 or 2.9% S&P 500 : 1,687.99 S&P 500 5-Sep-13 : 1,655.08 Change : 32.91 or 2.0% US Dollar Index : 81.470 US Dollar Index 5-Sep-13 : 82.640 Change : -1.170 or -1.4% Platinum Price Close Today : 1,443.60 Platinum Price Close 5-Sep-13 : 1,481.20 Change : -37.60 or -2.5% Palladium Price Close Today : 697.50 Palladium Price Close 5-Sep-13 : 685.50 Change : 12.00 or 1.8% What might make me interrupt my vacation to send you a commentary? Well, the silver and GOLD PRICES falling to or past critical support levels. Two interpretations present themselves, and they gainsay each other. Both can't be right. Both silver and GOLD PRICES have been rallying and have formed an upside-down head and shoulders formation, which presages a rise at least the height of the head from the neckline, for silver 2650 cents and for gold $1,550. But what ho! They broke this week. What now? Either the upside down HandS will vindicate itself and silver and gold prices will grab here and reverse, OR metals face another plunge down to validate or exceed the 27 June lows. If we're watching an upside-down HandS, silver and gold prices have sunk as far as they are allowed. The gold price broke its 50 DMA (1333.31) and hit the neckline Silver hit the neckline, too, and touched its 50 DMA (2139c). Gold price lost $22 today to close Comex at $1,308.40. SILVER PRICE lost 42.9 cents to end Comex at 2167c. If this really is the correct interpretation, then silver and gold will both turn up next week. No time or room to tarry here. The other interpretation says that the rally from the June lows has only been a countertrend rally, and the long correction from 2011 through 2013 needs one more leg down, perhaps to $1,280, perhaps lower than $1,180. If this is correct, silver and gold will suffer a weak September and an October low,. Don't bother throwing any rocks at me, I don't know which the final outcome will be. I can only look at possibilities and humbly advance an opinion. Now of this changes the dangerous world we live in, where all "authorities" sing that everything has been fixed and that we can print our way to prosperity, world without end, Amen. I may be no more than a natural born fool from Tennessee, but I ain't that big a dad burned fool, not by a long shot. Dow in gold today closed at 11.752 oz, up today 2.2% (G$242.93 in gold dollars) Dow in silver closed up 2.5% or 17,19 oz at 707,56 oz. Dow in Gold has retraced its fall from the June 27 high back up to the downtrend line. That argues one of two things: either it's going lots higher, or the correction has exhausted itself and will very soon reverse. Dow in silver isn't nearly as clear. Unlike the Dow in Gold, it has not climbed through its 20 and 50 DMAs, but only the 20 DMA. 50 lies above at 720.24 oz. Comparable downtrend line to gold's hits today about 780 oz., so it must climb considerably higher before it equals gold. Both these indicators argue that the metals' decline is nearing an end. On the other hand, "a trend in force remains in force until proven otherwise." Neither gold nor silver have disproven the long correction's downtrend by closing above their April breakdowns ($1,550 and $27.00). Right now that seems the more powerful argument to me. Another little fact is the strong rebound in the metals' aftermarket. Gold jumped up from $1,308.40 to $1,323.50 and silver from 2167c to 2219c. Of course, nothing more than traders covering their shorts after a profitable week might account for that. US dollar index remains strangely weak, and has backed down to its major uptrend line again. Closed today 81.47, down 5.4 basis points but down 1.4% on the week. Euro and yen went nowhere big. Euro climbed to $1.3303 today (up 0.18%) and yen lost 0.37% to 99.21 cents/Y100. Stocks proved a rally this week, or reacted positively to news that Syria would not immediately blow up the world. Dow closed up 75.42 today at 15,376.06 and S&P500 at 1687.99, up 4.57%. Heading up for a final top, I reckon. I'm going back to the beach. Y'all enjoy your weekend! Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought. - Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger The-MoneyChanger.com 1-888-218-9226 10:00am-5:00pm CST, Monday-Friday © 2013, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission. To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down. WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned: Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures. NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps. NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced. NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt. What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands. One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose. No, I don't. | ||||
| Gold Prices Lost $22 Today to Close Comex at $1,308.40 Posted: 13 Sep 2013 03:30 PM PDT Gold Price Close Today : 1,308.40 Gold Price Close 5-Sep-13 : 1,373.10 Change : -64.70 or -4.7% Silver Price Close Today : 21.67 Silver Price Close 5-Sep-13 : 23.206 Change : -1.536 or -6.6% Gold Silver Ratio Today : 60.378 Gold Silver Ratio 5-Sep-13 : 59.170 Change : 1.21 or 2.0% Silver Gold Ratio : 0.01656 Silver Gold Ratio 5-Sep-13 : 0.01690 Change : -0.00034 or -2.0% Dow in Gold Dollars : $ 242.93 Dow in Gold Dollars 5-Sep-13 : $ 224.88 Change : $18.05 or 8.0% Dow in Gold Ounces : 11.752 Dow in Gold Ounces 5-Sep-13 : 10.879 Change : 0.87 or 8.0% Dow in Silver Ounces : 709.56 Dow in Silver Ounces 5-Sep-13 : 643.69 Change : 65.86 or 10.2% Dow Industrial : 15,376.06 Dow Industrial 5-Sep-13 : 14,937.48 Change : 438.58 or 2.9% S&P 500 : 1,687.99 S&P 500 5-Sep-13 : 1,655.08 Change : 32.91 or 2.0% US Dollar Index : 81.470 US Dollar Index 5-Sep-13 : 82.640 Change : -1.170 or -1.4% Platinum Price Close Today : 1,443.60 Platinum Price Close 5-Sep-13 : 1,481.20 Change : -37.60 or -2.5% Palladium Price Close Today : 697.50 Palladium Price Close 5-Sep-13 : 685.50 Change : 12.00 or 1.8% What might make me interrupt my vacation to send you a commentary? Well, the silver and GOLD PRICES falling to or past critical support levels. Two interpretations present themselves, and they gainsay each other. Both can't be right. Both silver and GOLD PRICES have been rallying and have formed an upside-down head and shoulders formation, which presages a rise at least the height of the head from the neckline, for silver 2650 cents and for gold $1,550. But what ho! They broke this week. What now? Either the upside down HandS will vindicate itself and silver and gold prices will grab here and reverse, OR metals face another plunge down to validate or exceed the 27 June lows. If we're watching an upside-down HandS, silver and gold prices have sunk as far as they are allowed. The gold price broke its 50 DMA (1333.31) and hit the neckline Silver hit the neckline, too, and touched its 50 DMA (2139c). Gold price lost $22 today to close Comex at $1,308.40. SILVER PRICE lost 42.9 cents to end Comex at 2167c. If this really is the correct interpretation, then silver and gold will both turn up next week. No time or room to tarry here. The other interpretation says that the rally from the June lows has only been a countertrend rally, and the long correction from 2011 through 2013 needs one more leg down, perhaps to $1,280, perhaps lower than $1,180. If this is correct, silver and gold will suffer a weak September and an October low,. Don't bother throwing any rocks at me, I don't know which the final outcome will be. I can only look at possibilities and humbly advance an opinion. Now of this changes the dangerous world we live in, where all "authorities" sing that everything has been fixed and that we can print our way to prosperity, world without end, Amen. I may be no more than a natural born fool from Tennessee, but I ain't that big a dad burned fool, not by a long shot. Dow in gold today closed at 11.752 oz, up today 2.2% (G$242.93 in gold dollars) Dow in silver closed up 2.5% or 17,19 oz at 707,56 oz. Dow in Gold has retraced its fall from the June 27 high back up to the downtrend line. That argues one of two things: either it's going lots higher, or the correction has exhausted itself and will very soon reverse. Dow in silver isn't nearly as clear. Unlike the Dow in Gold, it has not climbed through its 20 and 50 DMAs, but only the 20 DMA. 50 lies above at 720.24 oz. Comparable downtrend line to gold's hits today about 780 oz., so it must climb considerably higher before it equals gold. Both these indicators argue that the metals' decline is nearing an end. On the other hand, "a trend in force remains in force until proven otherwise." Neither gold nor silver have disproven the long correction's downtrend by closing above their April breakdowns ($1,550 and $27.00). Right now that seems the more powerful argument to me. Another little fact is the strong rebound in the metals' aftermarket. Gold jumped up from $1,308.40 to $1,323.50 and silver from 2167c to 2219c. Of course, nothing more than traders covering their shorts after a profitable week might account for that. US dollar index remains strangely weak, and has backed down to its major uptrend line again. Closed today 81.47, down 5.4 basis points but down 1.4% on the week. Euro and yen went nowhere big. Euro climbed to $1.3303 today (up 0.18%) and yen lost 0.37% to 99.21 cents/Y100. Stocks proved a rally this week, or reacted positively to news that Syria would not immediately blow up the world. Dow closed up 75.42 today at 15,376.06 and S&P500 at 1687.99, up 4.57%. Heading up for a final top, I reckon. I'm going back to the beach. Y'all enjoy your weekend! Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought. - Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger The-MoneyChanger.com 1-888-218-9226 10:00am-5:00pm CST, Monday-Friday © 2013, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission. To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down. WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned: Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures. NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps. NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced. NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt. What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands. One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose. No, I don't. | ||||
| Historic JP Morgan Whistleblower Interview Moves Markets Posted: 13 Sep 2013 02:54 PM PDT  On the heels of the blockbuster interview with London metals trader Andrew Maguire, where he told King World News he brought two JP Morgan gold and silver whistleblowers to a high profile law firm, and also to the CFTC, today 42-year veteran Egon von Gryererz sent KWN the following piece which gives readers a snapshot of what to expect in the aftermath of such an extraordinary development. Below is the powerful Egon von Greyerz piece.This posting includes an audio/video/photo media file: Download Now | ||||
| Posted: 13 Sep 2013 02:01 PM PDT It's hard to know exactly what you're looking at - when it's sitting right smack in front of you. There's a complexity up close that could be confused with many different things. Fractals - you ask? Read More... | ||||
| Posted: 13 Sep 2013 01:36 PM PDT | ||||
| Posted: 13 Sep 2013 01:36 PM PDT | ||||
| Richard’s $2 Billion Dollar (Severed) Hand Posted: 13 Sep 2013 01:17 PM PDT "The tipping point is that magic moment when an idea, trend or social behavior crosses a threshold, tips and spreads like wildfire." — Malcom Gladwell, The Tipping Point Hype or harbinger of new-Western prosperity? Profit windfall or investor sinkhole? New-age appliance or subniche cult item? We leave it for you to decide… but one thing's certain: Now that the mainstream press has begun asking these questions about 3-D printing, we've reached a tipping point. Search "3-D printing" in Google News and you'll get 30,800 stories from the past month alone. In this publication, we've called it "The New Industrial Revolution," "The Fourth Technological Revolution" or simply the "Click. Print. Revolution." Take your pick. The most recent story before us: the 3-D-printed "Robohand." Richard Van As, a South African carpenter, lost four of his fingers to a circular saw, reports The Associated Press. An artificial limb — one that could detect the muscles' electrical impulses and move — would have cost him tens of thousands of dollars. Sadly, he was unable to afford that. “After my accident, I was in pain, but wouldn’t take painkillers," he told AP. "I barely slept, and the more pain I had the more ideas I got. Sometimes you have to chop fingers off to start thinking." Soon after, Van As teamed with an Ivan Owen from Seattle. 10,000 miles separated Van As in Johannesburg from Owen. But with the help of two 3-D printers donated by MakerBot, the two created their own "Robohand" prosthetic. They were able to cut the prototyping time from a week to just 20 minutes. And the cost? Just $500… more than a 95% discount.
"Maybe Robohand took the 3-D printing world by surprise with what we've done," says Van As in a MakerBot YouTube video, "but if you have a look at the broad spectrum of it, I think that printing a mechanical device that can aid you when you've lost fingers, is a tiny little part of it. It's a big, big picture, this 3-D printing…" It's not just Van As who sees potential in this space. "The idea that [3-D printing] is a gimmick, suitable only for hobbyists, looks ever less likely," reads the latest Economist. "Cheap 3-D printers for consumers are selling fast, but account for just 5% of the market. Many printers are still used for models and prototypes, but in 2012, more than 25% of the items emerging from 3-D printers were finished parts, up from 4% in 2003, according to Wohlers Associates, a consultancy." Wohler predicts that the 3-D printing industry will grow by 28% this year. But he doesn't buy into the "Click. Print. Revolution" idea. The company's eponymous president says, "It's unsettling to read this oversimplification where you push a button and out pops a shiny new thing," he posted on his company's site. Despite many designs being accessible and simple to print (the website Thingiverse.com comes to mind), Terry Wohlers argues that the process requires intensive design. We respect his authority on the topic. After all, Wholers' 297-page industry market report is the go-to publication on additive manufacturing. "The part you print won’t be as good as the part you order," Nick Allen adds in an interview with . Mr. Allen, believe it or not, is both a 3-D printing skeptic and the CEO of a 3-D printing company, 3D Print UK. He thinks that expectations of 3-D printing have been set too high. "We now live in a world where we can get something to our door by 9 a.m. if we order it at 5 p.m.," he says. "Printing takes time." Au contraire, parries our good friend Josh Grasmick. "Today, I'll show you the financial perfect storm brewing in the tech sector," he writes below. "You are in for a hell of a ride." In his essay "3-D Printing for Mature Audiences Only," Josh outlines three forces that will intersect in the next 12 months. He believes they're set to create a windfall for early investors in the 3-D printing space. "This is it," he writes: "the calm before the perfect storm." Regards, Peter Coyne Ed. Note: As the 3-D printing revolution continues, there are constantly new ways to invest in it. Some of our colleagues have identified a few of them, and early investors are already seeing profits. We offered Daily Reckoning email readers an opportunity to discover some of these for themselves. Just one of the perks of being a subscribers to our free email list. Not yet a member? Sign up for free, right here. | ||||
| Confessions of a Former Gold Bear Posted: 13 Sep 2013 12:46 PM PDT Only emerging-market savers need gold and silver, right? This Sunday, September 15, marks the five-year anniversary of the collapse of Lehman Brothers. The week before it happened I recall receiving a telephone call from a custome ... Read More... |
Hello from rainy and chilly Acapulco,
The last time that the claims per ounce were nearly this high was in the late 1990′s. At that time the central banks had to intervene to keep one or more bullion banks from faltering. It occurred during a period of coordinated bullion selling from the central banks into the market under the Washington Agreement, culminating in the notorious gold dumping known as 
Dear CIGAs,
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