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Wednesday, February 20, 2013

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Gold risks falling out of bed as $1,525/oz looms

Posted: 20 Feb 2013 02:55 PM PST

Gold's slide this week to a six-month low has brought it in sight of $1,525/oz, a critical support price which, once breached, could fatally reverse its 12-year rise.

Sibanye Gold suspends Beatrix 4 shaft ops due to fire

Posted: 20 Feb 2013 02:35 PM PST

The gold miner has suspended operations at its Beatrix 4 shaft in South Africa after an underground fire.

History of the 'Death Cross' in Gold and Silver Charts

Posted: 20 Feb 2013 12:34 PM PST

HOUSTON -- We thought we would publish charts showing the history of the so-called "Death Cross" for gold and silver since 2000, when the previous gold bear market arguably ended and the current bull market began.   We offer these charts for what they are worth given the dozens of times the "Death Cross" has been mentioned today in televised financial media. 

The very simple charts speak for themselves. 

20130220 gold Death Cross History 

(Click on the images for a somewhat larger version.)

The circles indicate each of the previous events where the 50-day moving average has crossed below the 200-day moving average.  Commonality can be found in at least one observation.  Each of the events occurred at a higher, not lower level. 

Rhetorical question:  Does that mean that a "Death Cross" is actually a contrary bullish indicator? 

Below is the same chart for silver. 

20130220 silver Death Cross History 

One last point:  Neither gold nor silver "knows" where the moving averages are currently.  If the Death Cross is supposed to be a major bearish signal, then the metals have not been cooperative to the notion, so far.  (Except for brief periods, such as the Great Panic of 2008.)

Feel free to share this link with anyone attempting to browbeat with the nasty sounding "Death Cross."  http://www.gotgoldreport.com/2013/02/history-of-the-death-cross-in-charts-.html#more

Gene Arensberg for Got Gold Report

 

Gold drops below $1,600 for first time in 6 months

Posted: 20 Feb 2013 12:23 PM PST

The gold price fell below $1600/oz for the first time in six months Wednesday, as the US dollar strengthened and stock markets were broadly flat.

Is now the time to reinvest in mining majors

Posted: 20 Feb 2013 12:23 PM PST

The almost universal change in the top management of major diversified and gold miners should indicate that a more cautious approach will see greater profits and dividends ahead.

Gold - Why The Carnage? Gold Miners - What Happened?

Posted: 20 Feb 2013 11:45 AM PST

By Emerging Money:

By Tim Seymour

The price of gold and the share prices of gold miners have been under heavy pressure, with miners in a deep, deep funk. Let's discuss.

Gold prices have lost their uptrend due to two primary drivers:

  • Inflation effects of QE began to be in question
  • Sustainable growth globally meant equities were investable again, and risk-on means risk-off gold

The gold price is approaching three standard deviation moves of the 100-day moving average of approximately $1,577, which traditionally has served as a support. Price is setting up for a trading buy at a minimum. Gold equities have been caught in this price move, but are also suffering from a more fundamental dynamic that comes from a lower gold price. Many gold projects are unjustifiable at lower spot prices. Cheaper company multiples also mean that miners have less access to capital to fund their growth.

There are greater risks


Complete Story »

Fed Minutes MOPE: Fed Threatens to End QE; Gold & Silver Vertical Smash in Progress

Posted: 20 Feb 2013 11:05 AM PST

As expected here at SD, the latest Fed minutes are pure propaganda claiming the Fed may end QE soon as the economy is recovering more quickly than expected. This is as even Walmart's sales are crashing. Que the anticipated smash in gold and silver. and….Gold & silver dropping vertically as expected.  Unbelievable. Full Fed Minutes [...]

HUI has "Issues"

Posted: 20 Feb 2013 10:57 AM PST

The mining shares still continue to sink lower seemingly unable to attract sufficient buying to stem the flow of red ink being seen across the sector. As a fundamentalist, I think one can make the argument that some of the leading shares in the sector are severely undervalued against the price of gold; however, as a technician, one has to respect the chart action be that as it may.

I am presenting a monthly chart but wish to note that the last trading day for February has yet to arrive so there remains sufficient time for the index to recover. It is however flirting with some important chart support level. I thought that the index might have found enough buying near 380 to bottom it. That is evidently not the case.

What concerns me with this chart, and again, the month is not yet out, is the fact that the NEGATIVE DIRECTIONAL INDICATOR is at its highest level since the move lower in the middle of the credit crisis of 2008. The bottom of that move lower in the index was accompanied by the peak in the negative DMI near the 30 level. This -DMI is currently sitting at -26.53. I have noted this level on the chart with a dashed red line.



One might make the argument based on this alone that the shares have now reached oversold levels commensurate with a bottom. That might be true but as of right now, we do not have any technical confirmation of such; we only have an extreme oversold reading based only on this particular indicator. You will notice the lack of any white candle whatsover. In other words, there is no buying in size sufficient to absorb the continued selling occuring in the sector. There is buying just not enough of it.

Here is the problem, the ADX, the solid navy blue line, is rising even as the -DMI is rising while it is above the +DMI (the blue line). That only happened very briefly back in 2008. Keep in mind that a rising ADX indicates the beginning of a trend but generally it needs to get above  the 20 level to be valididated.

BAck in 2008 as it began to turn higher while above the 20 level, the Fed announced the inception of QE1 and that put an abrupt end to the slide in the gold shares, as well as everything else on the planet it seems. Now, we are witnessing the rising of the ADX (it is still below 20) with chatter that the Fed will end the QE sooner than expected. I personally do not believe that they can but what i believe is of no consequence when it comes to what the majority of hedge funds/large investors believe.

While not a particular fan of Head and SHoulder patterns for predictive purposes (those patterns are highly overrated), it should be noted that the index is sitting right on the neckline. A breach on a montly closing basis would get the bearish chatter going even more against this sector but traders need to pay attention regardless.

There is a band of congestion near 320 - 310 that should attract enough buying to at least drop the index into a congestion pattern at a bare minimum should price get there. Let's hope it does not for the sake of those long suffering gold share bulls.

One last thing, you will notice that the HUI tends to make SPIKE BOTTOMS when it finally does exhaust the selling pressure. If it can do this before the end of this month and recapture the 400 level in the process, it should be a fairly reliable signal that the worst is over. We simply have to wait and see.

 


JP Morgan’s Silver Position

Posted: 20 Feb 2013 10:45 AM PST

READ THE FULL NEWSLETTER

JP Morgan inherited Bear Stearns huge "short" position in silver (and gold) when the Fed arranged for them to takeover (the bankrupt) Bear Stearns.  They have been trying to extricate themselves from that position since 2008.  They are trapped.  Even now, when they desperately try and reduce their shorts but pulling their bids and allowing the market to fall, with the hope of buying all of the sales at a lower price (to help cover their shorts), the "Raptors," (large hedge funds) step in and buy many of the contracts, making it impossible for JPM to cover.

People I talk to also feel that the reason gold is punished is to influence the price of silver, to the downside of course, in aid of JP Morgan's quest to shed their huge short silver position.

Here is what Ted Butler had to say about JP Morgan's short position and the Bear Stearns position they inherited:

The Real Story – Silverseek.com

November 10 2008

The price of silver at the time of Bear Stearns implosion was $20 to $21 an ounce. A free market covering of a concentrated short position of this size would have driven silver prices to the $50 or $100 level and would have exposed the long-term manipulation. Rather than let the free market deal with the required short covering of such an uneconomic and unbacked short position, government authorities arranged to have the short position transferred to JP Morgan. This was undertaken by the U.S. Treasury Department, along with taxpayer guarantees against loss to Morgan worth billions of dollars. This was done, no doubt, to save the financial system from imploding. This was also patently illegal, as it aided and abetted the silver manipulation.

I'm sure the motive behind the illegal transfer of the silver short position was the mistaken assumption by Treasury that an explosion in the price of silver (and gold) would threaten overall financial stability. Well guess what – they succeeded in crushing the price of gold and silver, but to no avail, as financial stability has been shattered.

JP Morgan was not just an accommodative good corporate citizen in the illegal transfer of the manipulative silver (and gold) COMEX short position. In addition to undisclosed government guarantees against loss, JP Morgan was given free reign to liquidate the COMEX short position at their discretion, knowing full-well the regulators would look the other way, no matter what dirty tricks were necessary to cause the price to collapse. Nor was JP Morgan a neutral agent in the silver price collapse. Data from the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) http://www.occ.gov/deriv/deriv.htm indicates that JP Morgan held a much larger Over The Counter (OTC) derivatives position in silver and gold than was transferred to them from Bear Stearns.

My analysis shows that Morgan has made many billions of dollars, perhaps tens of billions, from their downward engineering of silver and gold prices from their combined COMEX and OTC short positions. They have used that engineered price decline to buy back as many short positions as possible. If investors are wondering what caused the destruction of billions of dollars in gold and silver values, metal and share price alike, look no further than JP Morgan, and the government officials who enabled them.

There can be no question that the CFTC is complicit in all these illegal activities. Same with the CME Group, owner of the NYMEX/COMEX. It is not possible that they are not privy and an active party to this successful downward manipulation. To think that officials at the CFTC, from the top of the agency, to staffers and even the Inspector General, have taken oaths of office to uphold commodity law and then have allowed that law to be repeatedly violated is beyond repugnant. That they have knowingly participated in an organized cover-up of this manipulation and have taken to lying to a Congressman calls for criminal prosecution.

Continue reading on SilverSeek.com

Here is a discussion from NIA on this topic, which adds to Butler's position:

…March 14th, 2008, the very day Bear Stearns failed, was the same day silver reached a multi-decade high of about $21 per ounce. Bear Stearns was on the verge of being forced to cover their naked short position in silver, which could have quickly sent silver as high as $50 per ounce. This would have caused a loss of confidence in the U.S. dollar and a possible currency crisis. Instead of allowing this to happen, the Federal Reserve orchestrated a bailout of Bear Stearns and JP Morgan acquired their assets with the backing of the Fed. Shortly after taking over Bear Stearn's silver short position, JP Morgan was able to manipulate the price of silver down to below $9 per ounce.  (They made billions!)

Continue reading on inflation.us

For those of you who want to know more about how this all happened, I have re-printed a detailed explanation that Butler published three months ago, titled A Manipulation Timeline.

Do you agree?  A lot of smart people think this is exactly what is going on.  One of these days, JPM will have to bite the bullet and move out of their position, regardless of the price, and it will most likely be caused by a rising market, in spite of the manipulation.

My silver position is as large as my gold position.  My expectation is simple – silver will outperform gold, and if it doubles gold's gains from now forward, I will not be surprised at all!

Yesterday, Bill Holter discussed the shortages of ammo and guns in Texas.  I have experienced the same thing here in Miami and in Minneapolis.  A friend, here in Miami, owns a guns store.  He turns customers away.  He hasn't had a new gun, handgun or assault rifle, to sell in months.  I visited a major gun dealer in Minneapolis, after the first of the year, and they were virtually out of everything.

There was some inventory, but a fraction of what they usually have.  The store was crowded.  Yes, ordinary Joes are stocking up on guns and ammo.  They are afraid – not only of the bad guys, but of our own government.

Similar Posts:

Rick Rule – ‘Golden Rule’ about the 'Gold Death Cross'

Posted: 20 Feb 2013 10:13 AM PST

Another all too brief appearance on CNBC by Rick Rule shows in the segment below.  The CNBC producers (and gold bears) seem to love the term "death cross" when it comes to gold. Rick, on the other hand, has a different focus than on moving averages. 

   

Source: CNBC
http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000149154

Embrace Silver’s Volatility All the Way to the Bank

Posted: 20 Feb 2013 10:00 AM PST

Most precious-metals investors know that silver is more volatile than gold. But do they know just how big that difference really is?

We thought it would be interesting to measure how much greater silver's daily moves are – both in gains and declines – than gold.

We documented the daily price movements for both metals, and then calculated the difference using absolute values. To interpret the charts below, you need to know that:

  • Values above zero represent days when silver had a greater percentage move than gold, as depicted in gray.
  • Values below zero are days when gold moved more than silver, as depicted in orange.
  • The values don't tell us the direction of price movements, only how much they differed between each other on any given day.
  • The darker horizontal lines represent the moving average of the price differences for each metal.

With that in mind, here are the differences in daily price movements between silver and gold, measured in percentage points.

The chart is very busy, but it clearly shows that silver's daily price movements, more often than not, have been greater than gold's. In fact, from January 2003 through last week, silver's movements were larger 71.5% of the time. Regardless of the direction of precious metals on any given day, silver had a greater percentage move than gold roughly three out of four days.

Further, you'll notice that the magnitude of silver's movement have been much greater, too. On average, silver's price movements exceeded gold's by 1.3 percentage points, while on days gold had the bigger move the average was 0.81 percentage points. The moving averages easily show this.

Here are some of the more extreme examples. On May 12, 2011 (silver's biggest spike in the chart), gold rose 1.23% – but silver soared 17.05%. The day gold had the biggest percentage move more than silver occurred on December 2, 2008; gold rose 0.26% to silver's 5.05% decline.

So, is this greater volatility in silver normal? And what might we expect when the Mania Phase of this bull cycle kicks in?

The following chart maps the daily difference in price movement between gold and silver from January 1971 through December 1980.

In the last big precious-metals mania, silver also logged bigger one-day movements than gold, in this case 63.5% of the time. On average, silver gained or lost 1.41 percentage points more than gold. When gold outperformed silver, roughly one-third of the time, the average percentage-point difference was 0.81.

You'll notice another interesting point. When the market entered the Mania Phase, silver's bigger one-day movements over gold's grew even bigger. During the 1979-1980 period, silver outperformed gold by an average of 2.46 percentage points, almost double what it did before the mania. In contrast, gold's average remained the same during the entire decade – 0.81.

Some of the more extreme examples include September 18, 1979, where gold rose by 6.82% and silver soared 36.59%; and March 27, 1980, where gold fell 4.38% and silver dropped 18.58%.

What Are the Implications for Investors?

On average, silver rises higher and falls further than gold. This is true as much today as it was in the 1970s. The difference has reached as much as 15 percentage points during this cycle, while it hit 30 during the last mania. This means that investors:

  1. Must be able to stomach the bigger moves, regardless of the direction. If you have a tendency to get emotional about your investments, you may want to reduce your exposure to silver.
  1. Have an opportunity to get better prices on silver than gold. If you buy during the downdrafts, you will likely reap a bigger percentage gain than gold, as history has shown.

The historical record tells us that when we enter the mania, silver's volatility will increase. If we have a similar period as in 1979-'80, we can reasonably expect volatility to double over current levels. This will be the result of more investors joining the precious-metals industry. The moves will, on some days, be breathtaking. So again, one must be prepared emotionally to handle the volatility, as well as be more nimble when it comes to buying and selling.

Since current volatility is roughly half what it was during the last mania, we have yet another piece of evidence that indicates we're not in a bubble. Yet. Ignore those who claim otherwise; you still have time to enter this market.

It also means that when silver resumes its uptrend, the producers will outpace the metal by a wide margin. The "snapback" in silver stocks should be tremendous – but not every company will benefit equally, as not all producers have the same profit potential, political exposure, management prowess, and growth prospects.

There's a little-known anomaly in the precious-metals market that key institutional investors are using to buy deeply discounted gold. But you don't have to be big-time investment firm to take advantage of it. Details here.

MAJOR TOP IN STOCKS & MAJOR BOTTOM IN GOLD

Posted: 20 Feb 2013 09:59 AM PST

Gold Scents

For months and months now I've been warning traders that QE3&4 were going to have a major effect on stocks. I knew that analysts claiming that each new QE was having less and less affect would not apply to this latest round of quantitative easing.

I was confident the latest counterfeiting operation by the Fed would push stocks to at least test the 2007 highs, and I really expect we will see a marginal break above that level sometime this year. Probably by the end of the month. My current guess is that we will get a sell the news type of event as soon as the sequestration can is kicked down the road and that will mark the top of this particular intermediate cycle.

Make no mistake though we are still in a secular bear market. Stocks are testing their all-time highs at the same time earnings are in decline, GDP has turned negative, and unemployment is starting to tick up.

It has been my expectation that the stock market would put in a final top sometime this year. I also expect this will be a very extended and difficult topping process lasting months if not a year or more.

During this topping process I expect to see an inflationary surge very similar to what happened in the oil markets during the 2007 top.

Notice the breakdown in early 2007 that convinced everyone that the bull market in oil was finished. This set up a massive parabolic move into the 2008 blowoff top.

This time however I don't think it's going to be oil leading the inflationary charge. In order to generate that kind of move we need something that has formed a long consolidation similar to what happened in oil, and preferably an asset that has declined long enough and far enough to push sentiment to negative extremes capable of convincing everyone that the bull market is over. Those are the conditions necessary in order to generate a massive parabolic move over the next two years.

The only asset that qualifies in my opinion is the precious metals markets.

The breakdown after the QE4 announcement, and now the extreme move into a yearly cycle low has, I daresay, convinced everyone that the gold bull is over. I would argue that it is impossible for the gold bull to be over as long as central banks around the world continue to debase their currencies. Gold is just creating the conditions necessary for its next leg up, similar to what oil did in early 2007.

A very similar pattern to what happened in oil is also unfolding in the gold market. I'm talking about the T-1 pattern that formed in oil during 07-08.

Here are the rules of T-1 pattern for those not familiar:

T1. A move followed by a sideways range often precedes another move of almost equal extent in the same direction as the original move. Generally, when the second move from the sideways range has run its course, a counter move approaching the sideways range may be expected. 

I think the gold chart is setting up to produce a monstrous T-1 pattern with a target around $3200 sometime in the late 2014 or early 2015.

Investors just need to get through the bottoming process of this yearly cycle low. Considering that gold is now on the 15th week of its intermediate cycle, which usually lasts about 18-25 weeks We should be getting close.

Actually we are probably closer than it appears by that previous statement. The last intermediate cycle ran a bit long at 25 weeks. Long cycles are usually followed by a short cycle. So I would expect this cycle to run a bit short at 16-18 weeks.

All in all, I expect a final bottom sometime in the next 5-10 days. And once that bottom has formed gold should be ready to break out of the consolidation zone it has been in over the last year and a half and get busy delivering the second leg of that T-1 pattern.

Corvus Gold to sell JV Interest in Terra for $6M & 750K Shares

Posted: 20 Feb 2013 09:54 AM PST

Vancouver, B.C……..Corvus Gold Inc. ("Corvus" or the "Company") – (TSX: KOR, OTCQX: CORVF) announces that its Alaskan subsidiary, Raven Gold Alaska Inc. ("Raven"), has signed a non-binding Letter Of Intent ("LOI") to sell all of its joint venture participating interest in the Terra Project in Alaska to its current joint venture partner, Terra Gold Corp. ("Terra Gold") (a subsidiary of WestMountain Gold Inc.), while retaining precious and base metal NSR royalties, for consideration consisting of cash and shares. Proceeds from the sale are intended to be used for the ongoing development of the Company's North Bullfrog project in Nevada. The Company is preserving its downstream value potential on the Terra Project with Raven's retained royalty and share position in WestMountain.

Jeff Pontius, Corvus' CEO, stated: "Corvus believes the proposed transaction with our partner WestMountain is a true win-win deal, where Corvus uses the monetization of its non-core asset to advance its Nevada production plan and WestMountain can gain greater flexibility in the development of the Terra asset. This proposed deal not only provides 2013 development capital to Corvus for the North Bullfrog project, but also reduces shareholder dilution and provides long-term upside leverage with a well structured royalty positions on both precious and base metals. Corvus remains focused on its core strategy of becoming a near-term Nevada gold producer and aggressively exploring its significant new high-grade gold and silver discovery on its 100% owned North Bullfrog in Nevada."

Letter of Intent Executed

Raven and Terra Gold executed the LOI on February 18, 2013. The key proposed terms for the sale by Raven of all of its participating interest in the Terra Project to Terra Gold are as follows:

  • $50,000 deposit paid by Terra Gold at signing of LOI
  • Closing deadline of April 15th 2013, with an initial payment of USD 3.0 million due at closing and USD 2.0 million due 90 days following (on July 15, 2013), with a final USD 1.0 million payment due on the first anniversary of the closing (April 15, 2014). The last two payments are secured by a first mortgage on the Terra project.
  • 750,000 shares of WestMountain stock are to be issued to Raven at closing. Raven will agree to hold such stock for 24 months following closing.
  • Raven's retained royalty will be amended to be a sliding scale NSR royalty of 0.5% to 3% on precious metals (3% above a USD 1,500 gold price) and a flat 2% NSR royalty on all base metals.
  • Terra Gold will also pay USD 150,000 and deliver 250,000 WestMountain shares to International Tower Hill Mines Ltd., as required by the present joint venture agreement in order for Terra Gold to vest its maximum interest.
  • At closing, Terra Gold will pay Raven the value of Raven's 3% NSR royalty on the 2012 gold and silver production from Terra.

Completion of the transaction is subject to completion of final negotiations, settlement and execution of formal documentation, completion by Terra Gold of due diligence (and a satisfactory result thereof) by April 5, 2013, and receipt of any necessary regulatory approvals/acceptances required on behalf of WestMountain.

About the Terra Project

At present, Terra Gold has the right to earn a 51% interest in the Terra Project from Raven by spending a total of USD 6.0M over a three-year period (ending December 31, 2013). After earning its initial 51% interest, Terra Gold has the option to increase its ownership to 80% with an additional USD 3.05M investment in the 4th year of the agreement, thereby bringing the required capital investment total to USD 9.05M. Terra Gold's minimum 2013 work commitment to complete its required USD 6.0M investment is USD 2.5M. Raven is also currently entitled to an NSR of between 0.5% and 5% on all precious metal production and a 1% NSR royalty on all base metal production.

About Corvus Gold Inc.

Corvus Gold Inc. is a North American focused gold exploration and development company with projects in Nevada, Alaska and Quebec. The Company's projects represent a spectrum of early-stage to advanced gold opportunities. Corvus is committed to building shareholder value through a rapidly advancing gold project in Nevada and new growth discoveries on its other assets. The Company looks to advance its earlier and more risky discoveries via partner funded exploration work into carried and/or royalty interests that provide shareholders with exposure to low financial risk on future potential gold production.

On behalf of
Corvus Gold Inc.

(signed) Jeffrey A. Pontius
Jeffrey A. Pontius,
Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

Contact Information: Ryan Ko
Investor Relations
Email: info@corvusgold.com
Phone: 1-888-770-7488 (toll free) or (604) 638-3246 / Fax: (604) 408-7499

Cautionary Note Regarding Forward-Looking Statements

This is How the DHS Seizes Your Guns

Posted: 20 Feb 2013 09:45 AM PST

Guest Post by by Robert Farago The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) recently raided one of our readers: a kitchen table FFL dealer who does everything—everything—by the book. He has, however, consistently criticized the ATF for its unconstitutional regulations and long history of extra-legal activities. This is his story. First of all, forget about them coming [...]

BMG joins Canada’s Social Investment Organization

Posted: 20 Feb 2013 09:32 AM PST

Bullion Management Group Inc. (BMG) is pleased to announce it has become an associate member of the Social Investment Organization (SIO). The SIO is the national association for the socially responsible investment (SRI) industry in Canada, with a primary mandate of providing a leadership role in furthering the use of social and environmental criteria within the Canadian investment community.

BMG is Canada's first, precious metal's company to join the SIO. BMG seeks to continually pursue the highest global standards for bullion purchase, storage, integrity, transparency and security for its clients and has already been accepted as an Associate Member of The London Bullion Market Association (LBMA).
A report released in January of 2013 by the SIO states that socially responsible investment assets in Canada have climbed dramatically, showing growth in virtually every major market segment and outpacing the overall growth rate of the total assets under management. The Canadian SRI Review report states that assets managed under sustainable and socially responsible guidelines grew by 16 per cent between June 30, 2010 (the effective date of the last report) and December 31, 2011. By comparison, total assets under management grew by nine per cent in the same time period. Total assets managed under SRI guidelines are  $600.9 billion, up from $517.9 billion, an amount that represents 20 per cent of assets under management in the financial industry.
"Our SIO Associate Membership is one more way for BMG to extend its commitment to provide uncompromised bullion," said Nick Barisheff, CEO of Bullion Management Group Inc. "Anyone who monitors the gold mining and refining industry knows that with the 12-year rise of the gold price, illegal, unethical mining and refining operations have emerged across the developing world. Investors in BMG's funds and BullionBars program must be confident that bullion purchased and stored on their behalf is obtained from ethical and legal sources."
As an Associate Member of the LBMA, BMG and its clients benefit from the LBMA Responsible Gold Programme, in which the LBMA requires all refiners producing Good Delivery gold bars to comply with the LBMA Responsible Gold Guidance. The Guidance aims at combating systematic or widespread abuses of human rights, avoiding contribution to conflict and expects refiners to comply with high standards of anti-money laundering and combating terrorist financing activities.

Euro Gold Below 1200

Posted: 20 Feb 2013 09:15 AM PST

Since July of 2011, forays in gold priced in Euro terms, have been met with solid buying on approaches towards 1200. Only ONCE over that time period did gold end the week below this psychological support level. There was no downside followthrough however and the price rebounded the following week moving back towards 1320 before faltering. The week is still young but the gold price has now fallen below this level with today's sharp move lower.




Some of what we are seeing today in gold is tied to selling ahead of the release of the FOMC minutes for January. Traders/Investors continue to fear a more hawkish tone to the minutes with a rising number of voices perhaps calling for an ending to the QE program sooner than expected. That remains to be seen given the extremely tenuous state of this so-called "recovery" but this is the current thinking for whatever that is worth.

It is no different over in Europe where many believe the worst is now behind the region and has been the case over here in the US, money flows are moving into equities and exiting gold for the time being. Any reversal to the downside in the equity markets there, and here as well, would change that mentality quite rapidly were that to occur.

There is a spike low down near the 1150 level made in September of 2011 that is the last line of bullish defense for the euro gold bulls should the weekly close be below the 1185 level. In a sense, this corresponds closely to the $1550 - $1530 zone on the US Dollar priced gold chart. Bulls would not want to see this level give way without an intraweek recovery as it would portend even lower prices

As far as the US Dollar priced gold chart goes, support at $1600 was crushed with the market attracting fresh short selling on the break below last week's low just under $1600. There is no support just below today's session low on the chart until price nears $1565. Below that, should it fail, is the $1550 level. That one is a biggie. Should it not stem the bleeding, gold is going to test $1535.



Some data providers are showing that the 50 day moving average has already managed to cross below the 200 day moving average, the infamously known "Death Cross". My data does not yet show it although it will probably do so within the next day or two. Either way, technical analysts will view this as further confirmation of a bearish trend in gold prices.

The ADX that I have been including recently picked this up much sooner than the death cross occurence itself. It continues to rise with bearish momentum increasing as it has picked up the fund flows OUT OF GOLD and FRESH SHORTING. The market has fallen rather sharply 7 out of the last 8 trading sessions, so it is perhaps due for a bit of a bounce but expect rallies to be sold unless gold can get back above $1640 for a bare minimum. Even at that, bulls will not be out of the woods until price can move past $1660 - $1665. The bears are currently in the driver's seat.

Physical market buyers of size as of yet do not seem to be interested in moving in right now. Let's see if we can spot their footprints when they do.

I should also note here that the Continuous Commodity Index or CCI, has been getting worked over rather harshly the past week. That is continuing this week. I am getting reports of several large funds and banks exiting commodities due to the sector's poor performance over the last year.



Have to hand it to the elites at the Fed - they have managed to conjure into existence with QE1, QE2, QE3 and now QE4, trillions of dollars out of absolutely nowhere without the least bit of negative impact on commodity prices ( for now!). They have concocted a perfect world in which equity prices move steadily higher, interest rates remain stable at ultra low levels and commodity prices, while higher than several years ago, show no significant impact from the huge increase in liquidity.

Brace yourselves for the potential for some wild price swings when those FOMC minutes are made public.



QE & Gold Revaluation- The Central Bank Nuclear Weapon

Posted: 20 Feb 2013 09:10 AM PST

Gold revaluation and money printing are the nuclear weapons arsenal held by government treasury departments. By November of 1933, a frustrated central bank brought quantitative easing to a complete halt. How did the US government respond to that? The answer … Continue reading

Beatdown Continues: Silver Breaks $29, Gold Under $1590

Posted: 20 Feb 2013 09:10 AM PST

The beatdown in the gold and silver markets continued overnight and early in COMEX trading Wednesday ahead of this afternoon's release of the latest Fed meeting minutes at 2pm EST.   Silver has broken below $29 to $28.81, and gold is back under $1600, down another $15 to $1586. *Update: and vertical drop now in progress! [...]

Just so it’s absolutely clear King was NOT outvoted in the BoE minutes released today – it was all about sending a very LOUD message to the market

Posted: 20 Feb 2013 09:02 AM PST

Leave it to the BBC to toe the party line and make out that Marvyn King was 'outvoted' by others on the monetary policy committee in his wish to print up another £25bn. They ran this headline on the...

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Caption Contest!

Posted: 20 Feb 2013 09:00 AM PST

While the market waits in anticipation of the Fed minutes' release at 2pm and gold and silver are slammed again, we thought we would lighten the mood ahead of the inevitable gold and silver raid scheduled to launch the moment the propaganda filled minutes are released (looks like the raid began ahead of schedule today). [...]

Gold falls below $1,600 for first time in 6 months

Posted: 20 Feb 2013 08:26 AM PST

The spot gold price dropped below $1,600 an ounce for the first time in six months Wednesday, as the dollar strengthened and stock markets were broadly flat, ahead of the publication of the latest Federal Reserve policy meeting minutes later today.

Globalization in Reverse: The Ultimate Domino Collapse

Posted: 20 Feb 2013 08:15 AM PST

Guest Post By Bill H. The G-20 met this past week and issued statements warning against "currency wars".  But what is it that they are really saying?  In reality they are warning against trade wars because we know what these ultimately lead to…real wars.  But what is the alternative for countries like Japan?  They have levered [...]

Gold bears maintain control of market ahead of FOMC minutes

Posted: 20 Feb 2013 07:53 AM PST

Gold prices are solidly lower and hit another fresh 6.5-month low in early U.S. trading Wednesday. Weak longs who are presently well under water in their trades are feeling severe pain and being forced to liquidate.

Bloomberg Asks Why Would Anyone Want to Own Gold?

Posted: 20 Feb 2013 07:30 AM PST

Bloomberg blonde: Why would anyone want to own gold? It's a safe haven during times of crisis and things are getting better, and it doesn't pay a dividend and George Soros is selling 100 million of his gold holdings. Jim Steel: Well you don't get much of a yield on most things. Negative real interest [...]

Sequester Time… Credibility Beckons?

Posted: 20 Feb 2013 07:30 AM PST

Tick tock, tick tock, the clock is running.  Time is running out before the budget "sequester" kicks in.  Even our president spoke about it today and warned of the "dire consequences" that would accompany it.  All sorts of programs and "benefits" will be cut and …"will be bad for the economy."  Basically "life as we KNEW it" will change… and it won't be for the better.  Or will it?

First off, we have not even had a budget for the last 4 years.  This of course is illegal but who cares?  A budget?  We don't need no stinkin' budget!  Over these last 4 years we have not had a deficit of less than $1 trillion and run up over $5 trillion on the company credit card but who cares?  Deficits don't matter… haven't you heard?  Well, they don't… until they DO!  So why a sequester?  Congress wrote it up in the first place so why don't they say "we were just kidding?"  Why not "damn the torpedoes, full speed ahead?"

Simple and in one word, CREDIBILITY!  We have pushed our "credibility" past the limit, WAY past.  We lived and basked in the glow of WWII for 60 years.  We had credibility.  We had a reputation for fair markets, the rule of law, civil rights and just good ole' basic fairness.  It was the U.S. that lead in everything and the world looked up to us… until the "glow" began to dim and our "credibility" faded.  Put simply, we got lazy and cut corners.  We lived off of the past, the past savings, the past plant and equipment, the past reputation and credibility.  We ate the fat then the muscle then the bone and marrow yet people wonder how it all happened.

The time has finally arrived that your parents probably warned you of.  "We can't go on spending more than we produce forever" …forever has arrived.  Believe me, if there was another way out, sequester wouldn't even be a word.  It would even be banned from dictionaries but back in 2011 Congress needed to "buy some time."  They in fact did.  That time however has run out.  Don't get me wrong, I'm sure that some sort of sleight of hand "deal" will be reached in an effort to buy even more time but one must wonder whether "this time" is THE time.  THE time being when credibility, ALL credibility is lost.

I have written many times that running an 8% deficit to GDP means that a balanced budget would produce an immediate 8% contraction in the economy.  Some may think "only 8%?  No big deal!"  Well it really is a big deal.  You must remember that in today's world everything is priced and business models assumed "on the margin."  Meaning that "leverage," lots and lots of it, is used to create profit and ANY pull back in growth is magnified to bottom lines many times over.

I could go into the various programs which will be cut, the jobs eliminated and the checks that won't arrive; it is pointless.  It is pointless because the entire system is a bunch of wobbly dominoes that our "rulers" believe may become grounded again "if only we had a little more time."  It's like a circle.  We need to buy some time to fix things while the "fixes" make things worse which requires more time and so on.

After a little bit of thought, the "credibility" has already left the building, Russia and China are only holding us up (carrying us a few extra rounds) to see how much more metal (money) they can bleed.  People ask me all the time "when do you think the roof will come down?".  This is very very easy to answer… as soon as gold or silver don't get delivered in return for dollars.  This by the way would not be the case if there was any of that "credibility stuff" left… but there isn't.

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There is a lot of fixation on the $ gold price, which is understandable given that (for now) it is still the reserve currency of the world and the unit of account used when valuing global...

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Hedge funds setting the stage for a gold price recovery

Posted: 20 Feb 2013 06:31 AM PST

Speculators reduced their bets on rising commodities prices by 15% in the week ending Feb. 12, the largest weekly reduction since mid-November. However, the cleaner positioning can prepare the stage for a gold price rebound.

State Sen. Bob Mensch: Pa. faces public pension crisis

Posted: 20 Feb 2013 06:02 AM PST

More than five years after the sub-prime mortgage collapse, state and local governments and school districts across Pennsylvania continue to struggle with the impacts of the economic crisis. While revenues are slowly improving, the reverberations of the economic crisis are about to hit state and local governments again, this time in the form of the state's public pension crisis...

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For those who missed it yday, here's the pound vs the dollar since 1791

Posted: 20 Feb 2013 05:41 AM PST

For those who missed it yday, here's the pound vs the dollar since 1791bit.ly/XvG6ef — Ed Conway (@EdConwaySky) February 20, 2013

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