Gold World News Flash |
- Catching the Bid
- Gold ? Safety Blanket or Quilting Essential?
- 2012 sees gold demand hit record value level
- Gold Demand Trends Q4 and full year 2012
- why EVERY copper penny is now worth at least 5 cents – YouTube
- David Friedman on monetary freedom – YouTube
- Gold Futures Break Out of Wedge Pattern, Now What? – “For Pete’s Sake!” w/ Peter Hug of Kitco Metals – YouTube
- Gold consolidation, but no capitulation
- Petrogold: Are Russia And China Hoarding Gold Because They Plan To Kill The Petrodollar? – YouTube
- Michael RinoRemover- Capitalism Is Truely A Black Market – YouTube
- To Stay With a Long Term Gold Trend Requires True Grit
- I’m selling my gold and silver to buy this…
- Gold for Oil
- Nouriel Roubini ~ China’s rise and the fall of capitalism – Fast Forward – YouTube
- Hopes of a Gold Spike In Dollar-denominated Terms Are Just That ? Hopes! Here?s Why
- Jim's Mailbox
- Hopes of a Gold Spike In Dollar-denominated Terms Are Just That – Hopes! Here's Why
- Alliance of Elite Investors Hits Rare Milestone
- The Gold Price Posted a Higher Low and a Slightly Higher High
- U.S. Gold Is Being Exported To Asia, Especially Hong Kong
- Gold - Safety Blanket or Quilting Essential?
- How GETCO Went From HFT Trading Giant To Dwarf, And Raked Up Over $50 Million In T&E Expenses Along The Way
- Silver Wheaton: Interesting Business Model
- Gold Is Money: Central Bank Actions Send Investors a Clear Message
- Gold Remains Pinned to Channel Support
- Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts
- Gold Chart and Comments
- Gold Seeker Closing Report: Gold and Silver Fall With Oil
- GoldSeek.com Radio Gold Nugget: David Franklin, CEO Sprott Private Wealth & Chris Waltzek
- Elgin Mining Reports Fiscal 2012 Production Results and 2013 Guidance and Plans
- Gold – Safety Blanket or Quilting Essential?
- Gold, Teddy Bears and Patchwork Investing
- Russia & China Have Power to Collapse U.S. Economy! Is Hoarding of Gold Their First Step In Doing So?
- Casey's Energy Guru on What's Hot and What's Not in 2013
- Gold To Explode As A Percentage Of Global Currency Reserves
- Buy Gold Stocks Like a ROTH Capital Price Taker
| Posted: 13 Feb 2013 11:38 PM PST The Gold Speculator | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Gold ? Safety Blanket or Quilting Essential? Posted: 13 Feb 2013 11:12 PM PST Bullion Vault | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2012 sees gold demand hit record value level Posted: 13 Feb 2013 11:00 PM PST In value terms, gold demand in 2012 was US$236.4bn – an all-time high. Gold demand in value terms for the final quarter of the year was 6% higher year-on-year at US$66.2bn, marking the highest ever Q4 total. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Gold Demand Trends Q4 and full year 2012 Posted: 13 Feb 2013 11:00 PM PST | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| why EVERY copper penny is now worth at least 5 cents – YouTube Posted: 13 Feb 2013 10:28 PM PST Check our website daily at... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit http://www.figanews.com for full Content ]]  | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| David Friedman on monetary freedom – YouTube Posted: 13 Feb 2013 10:24 PM PST Check our website daily at... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit http://www.figanews.com for full Content ]]  | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Posted: 13 Feb 2013 10:06 PM PST Check our website daily at... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit http://www.figanews.com for full Content ]]  | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Gold consolidation, but no capitulation Posted: 13 Feb 2013 09:20 PM PST from Gold Money:
Gold and silver may be struggling for direction at the moment, but palladium continues to move higher: bursting above the $760/oz mark yesterday. Platinum enjoyed a solid up day – though its bullish progress has slowed slightly over the last week. Copper and crude oil as well as general equities had strong sessions, encouraged by the (initially) soothing noises coming from G7 countries about currency tensions. This backfired however, with confusion about attitudes towards the Japanese yen: comments from an American official initially seemed to suggest US acquiescence to Japan's push for a weaker yen; but a remark from an unidentified G7 official spoilt the mood (and risk rally) later, with the source noting "concern about excess moves in the yen." | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Petrogold: Are Russia And China Hoarding Gold Because They Plan To Kill The Petrodollar? – YouTube Posted: 13 Feb 2013 09:14 PM PST Check our website daily at... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit http://www.figanews.com for full Content ]]  | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Michael RinoRemover- Capitalism Is Truely A Black Market – YouTube Posted: 13 Feb 2013 09:12 PM PST Check our website daily at... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit http://www.figanews.com for full Content ]]  | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| To Stay With a Long Term Gold Trend Requires True Grit Posted: 13 Feb 2013 08:30 PM PST Gold is in a very healthy accumulation phase, and gold may yet test the lower end of the current trading range, do you have the true grit to hang on. Read More... | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| I’m selling my gold and silver to buy this… Posted: 13 Feb 2013 08:20 PM PST from Sovereign Man:
I always thought that when the cheap and easy credit eventually ran out, prices would come tumbling back down. And when that finally happened in 2008, I jumped in. One investment that seemed obvious to me was betting against commercial real estate investment trusts (REITs). All the research I had done indicated that commercial REITs were in WAY over their heads and doomed to fall. Initially, my strategy did well. As expected, the commercial REITs took a nosedive, and I was making money. Until Obama screwed me. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Posted: 13 Feb 2013 08:19 PM PST from SilverFuturist: | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Nouriel Roubini ~ China’s rise and the fall of capitalism – Fast Forward – YouTube Posted: 13 Feb 2013 08:08 PM PST Check our website daily at... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit http://www.figanews.com for full Content ]]  | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Hopes of a Gold Spike In Dollar-denominated Terms Are Just That ? Hopes! Here?s Why Posted: 13 Feb 2013 07:37 PM PST "Follow the [COLOR=#0000ff][U]munKNEE"[/U] [/COLOR]via twitter & Facebook or Register to receive our daily Intelligence Report [We read over and over again that] because of the massive amounts of money the Feds are injecting into the USA economy through quantitative easing, inflation is going to spike any day now, and the dollar is going to crash and, with that, gold will go to the moon – but it is not happening. It must be frustrating for gold investors. It is likely also puzzling to them. In this article I will try to explain why the U.S. dollar is not likely to crash anytime soon, and hopes of a gold spike in dollar-denominated terms are just that, hopes. Words: 730 So writes the Macro Investor in edited excerpts from his original article* posted on Seeking Alpha under the title The Rumors Of A Dollar Crash And Gold Spike Have Been Greatly Exaggerated.** [INDENT] *This article is presented compliments of www.FinancialArticleSummariesToday.com (A site for sore eyes... | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Posted: 13 Feb 2013 07:28 PM PST Jim, Selected quotes from Richard Russell today on King World News. CIGA Jim Really, then why don't you and I follow the lead of China and start getting rid of our dollars – swap them for another currency or for silver and gold? … this is one of those times when we have to Continue reading Jim's Mailbox | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Hopes of a Gold Spike In Dollar-denominated Terms Are Just That – Hopes! Here's Why Posted: 13 Feb 2013 06:19 PM PST "Follow the munKNEE" via twitter & Facebook or Register to receive our daily Intelligence Report [We read over and over again that] because of the massive amounts of So writes the Macro Investor in edited excerpts from his original article* posted on Seeking Alpha under the title The Rumors Of A Dollar Crash And Gold Spike Have Been Greatly Exaggerated.
There is little inflation in the USA because, [while]…the money supply is indeed growing from QEternity, the money is not exactly changing hands in transactions and chasing goods and services. Increased transactions is what drives inflation, so lower velocity of money leading to lower transactions is suppressing inflation, even in the face of rising money supply. For more details on the velocity of money and its impact on inflation, please read my article on why hyper-inflation is a myth. Inflation is not the only thing that drives currencies, however. The U.S. dollar may still crash against other major currencies if the exchange rates are not aligned with the core value of the two currencies in question. One way to measure it is using Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) which is an economic theory and technique used to determine the relative value of currencies, estimating the amount of adjustment needed on the exchange rate between countries in order for the exchange to be equivalent to (or on par with) each currency's purchasing power. It asks how much money would be needed to purchase the same goods and services in two countries, and uses that to calculate an implicit foreign exchange rate. One whimsical, but popular way to measure PPP is the Big Mac Index…. [Read: The Big Mac Index Reveals the REAL Facts On U.S. Inflation!] For the U.S. dollar to crash against another currency, the currency has to be undervalued with respect to the dollar. It would also help if the currency that the dollar would crash against is a major world currency, so that it can actually absorb all the dollar outflows. The natural candidates are the euro and the yen – any other currency is simply not in the same league as the dollar when it comes to market size and liquidity. Yet, as the Big Mac Index shows, the euro is already overvalued against the dollar, and while the yen is still a bit undervalued, it is unlikely that the Bank of Japan will let the yen rise, given that the country is betting on a weak yen to recover from its own recession. The Big Mac Index is not exactly what solid economic analysis is based on… [but a look at] the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) numbers [below show that] a basket of goods and services costing $100 in the USA would cost about 15% more in France and 8% more in Germany, which means the euro needs to come down by 8-15% for Purchasing Power Parity to be reached. According to the table below, France, Germany, and Japan, have currencies that are overvalued with respect to the U.S. dollar [suggesting that] the euro and the yen should weaken against the dollar instead of the dollar crashing against either of the two.
Also, there is a real quantitative easing going on out there in all the major countries. All these countries are trying to work their way out of the global recession by increasing money supply. Rumor is that the G-7 nations are soon going to come out with a coordinated statement stating that all of the G-7 nations will start to pump money into their respective economies, and not cause respective currencies to crash against each other [thereby averting any suggestion of a so-called currency war. Read: Is the First of Many Currency Crises Just Now Unfolding? Are Gold & Silver About to Take Off As a Result?] Bottom line, chances are bleak that the dollar is going to crash anytime soon. This is not good news for gold bulls, of course, as inflation is not in the horizon either. What does this mean for your investment thesis for the rest of 2013, dear reader? Well, my projection for gold prices in 2013 remains unchanged, that shorting gold — especially via the miners…remains the play for 2013. I think the miners are really setting up to be perma shorts with falling gold prices and rising mining costs.
*http://seekingalpha.com/article/1175981-the-rumors-of-a-dollar-crash-and-gold-spike-have-been-greatly-exaggerated
Related Articles: 1. The Big Mac Index Reveals the REAL Facts On U.S. Inflation!
A look at the trend in prices of the Big Mac clearly shows that investors are being penalized with higher inflation, lower income from bonds and certificates of deposit and being led to believe that the economy is growing better than it really is. [Let me explain.] Words: 1012; Charts: 2
I expect the eventual endgame to this whole Keynesian monetary experiment that has been going on ever since World War II [will] finally terminate in a global currency crisis. [That being said,] I'm starting to wonder if we aren't seeing the first domino – the Japanese yen – start to topple…[It has] cut through not only the 2012 yearly cycle low, but also the 2011 yearly cycle low and never even blinked [and should it continue its steep decline] and break through the 2010 yearly cycle low [of 105.66] I think we have a serious currency crisis on our hands. Needless to say, if the world sees a major currency collapse… it's going to spark a panic for protection – to gold and silver. Wouldn't it be fitting that at a time when they are completely loathed by the market they are about to become most cherished? [This article analyzes the situation supported by 3 charts to make for a very interesting read.] Words: 620; Charts: 3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Alliance of Elite Investors Hits Rare Milestone Posted: 13 Feb 2013 05:18 PM PST This week Casey Investment Alert issued the 500th alert in its near 20-year history of publication. To commemorate the milestone, Casey Investment Alert Editor Louis James is providing select financial publications and their subscribers with access to the alert, a special edition that celebrates the history and accomplishments of this unique precious-metals advisory. James said it's his hope that the alert will wake investors up to the outsized potential of the junior mining sector. "The best profit opportunities I've seen in years are available right now because junior mining companies are severely beaten down," he said. "When no one wants something of value, that's the best time to buy low." He added that junior miners are long overdue for a significant rebound. "It's been our experience that the most money in junior resource exploration is made right after significant corrections – much like the one we're in now," he said. "Sooner or later – and we think sooner – this situation will reverse." He added that in 2009 and 2010, in the aftermath of the financial crash of 2008, the Casey Investment Alert portfolio gained 117.3% and 81%, respectively. "And over the years, we've had quite a few 5- to 10-baggers," he said. "These are stocks that made early investors 500% to 1,000% profits." For more information about Casey Investment Alert, please read this alert: CASEY INVESTMENT ALERT
Crash, Cash, and Contrarianism Dear Speculators, Realizing that we were about to put out our 500th alert, we decided to pause in company recommendations and reflect on the almost 20 years of this service. Flashback 1Doug Casey was traveling the world, spending time in Spain and Hong Kong, building equity positions, real estate holdings and, of course, buying gold stocks as the mid-1990s gold bull was well underway. As always, there was a lot going on in the world then, and Doug was active in many fields, speculating on the TED spread, more typical Wall Street picks, and even some government bonds. Originally, before he got his first portable computer with a telephone modem, Doug would take notes in the field with a pad and pen, and write up his reports by hand on the plane on the way home, or back at his desk if it wasn't urgent. These would be typed up and faxed out to alert service subscribers. The paper-only nature of the service back then is why we do not have older alerts in our online archive – many of those editions didn't survive, even on paper (so we haven't been able to scan them). But Doug remembers many of the picks he made back then, including his famous +5,000% gain recommendation on Bre-X – and his all-important call to cash out before that stock went to zero as a result of one of the worst scandals to rock the mining industry. Flashback 2It was 2004. I was sitting in some exploration company's office with Doug and the company's management team, which was diligently going through its corporate presentation. I don't remember which company it was, but I remember I was there with Doug, learning the ropes, seeing how he did things. Doug was looking distracted, not quite staring out the window, but looking more than a bit bored. There was a pause in the sales pitch, and Doug said: "That's $300 rock, at today's prices. How much do you think you have?" With this single point and question, Doug showed that he followed and understood everything we were hearing. He mentally applied the grade of the several metals there were in the ore (it was a polymetallic deposit) and came up with a value that was great enough that it made matters of recovery rates and strip ratios less pressing, so he skipped those questions and went right to the chase. What was going to move that stock was how big a deposit the company might be able to report, and that's what Doug asked about. I was so impressed; while I don't remember the details of the company, I remember Doug's face perfectly, as he put his finger on the critical question. Flash ForwardToday, your analyst hits the road in much the same fashion Doug did 20 years ago. I use my smartphone to take notes, instead of a pad and a pen (the phone works in the dark, which is cool, but doesn't much like the dripping water and mud I often encounter underground), and type up my own reports on my laptop, but the MO is the same. We go, we kick the rocks, evaluate the results, and write them up – or not, if they don't make the 8 Ps grade. Every day, I apply what I learned from Doug, some of which I'd summarize this way:
ResultsThe results of applying these ideas – Doug before me, and I, now – can be seen clearly in our track record. This record is familiar to most of our readers, but for the newcomers among us, below are some of the biggest winners subscribers to this service have been able to take advantage of over the years:
Of these sixteen big winners, yours truly picked five, and did the due diligence on another two of them. (I didn't pick or do the original research on Altius, but the call to exit was mine, and I just about top-ticked that one.) Note that these gains are the actual price appreciation figures from when we opened and closed positions; they do not include calls to average down, take profits, participate in private placements (which we did not keep track of in the past, as we do now). They also do not include the opportunities subscribers had to exit at higher prices when these stocks reached their respective peaks.
We have crunched the numbers for this service in 2012. Last year, as we are all painfully aware, the TSX-V (our main market) was down 18.9%. Our stocks were slightly more volatile, losing 20.2% for the year, though mostly on paper, as we only realized a few losses on companies that ran out of money. Most have rebounded since then (GPO being a recent example of the wisdom of not selling unless you have a good reason to sell). Over the longer term, since the beginning of Casey Research in 2004, this alert service has returned 388.5% gains, if you bought all of our picks on an annual basis. The equivalent number for the International Speculator would be 227.9%, and if you just bought the TSX-V index every year, you'd actually be looking at a loss of 35.2%. We're working on better reporting and should have more on this soon. An Exemplary CaseApplying Doug's method of evaluation has resulted in numerous big wins, as above. One of our greatest was our speculation on AuEx Ventures. AuEx was a gold explorer focused on Nevada, where CEO and Explorers' League honoree Ron Parratt was at his strongest. It was actually David Galland who spotted this one, but I did the research and wrote up the recommendation for Doug's approval. We went long in a Casey Investment Alert on October 25, 2005, based on the first fence of exceptional drill holes Ron's company put into Long Canyon. This was the spectacular "off trend" discovery that major gold producer Newmont Mining (NEM) is now making into a mine. Due to a title screw up on the part of the authorities (not AuEx) the company ended up with an extremely well-funded JV partner, Fronteer Gold, which was run by our most recent Explorers' League honoree, Mark O'Dea. As usual, I went to see the project myself and, applying Doug's methods, came away with a very clear sense of the potential. So we held on through the ups and downs, took profits when shares were up, and bought more when the shares were cheap, especially when offered a private placement (PP) opportunity. Fronteer eventually bought AuEx out, providing us a big win and free shares of Renaissance Gold (T.REN), a new company run by the AuEx team to explore AuEx's non-Long Canyon assets. But we still liked Long Canyon and Fronteer's other assets, so we held on. Fronteer was later bought out by Newmont, handing us another big win – and free spin-out shares in Pilot Gold (T.PLG). By the way, Fronteer had been another speculation of ours, recommended at C$4.96 in April of 2006. We were able to take profits exactly one year later at C$14.81, buy back in with gusto in December of 2008 at C$2.38, and eventually get cashed out by NEM back up at C$14.78 – a truly terrific ride. Pilot Gold was the subject of a the Casey Investment Alert of November 12, 2012, after I visited the company's projects in Turkey (I had already seen the projects in Nevada, and had written about them favorably). Pilot was trading at C$1.62 and subsequently rose to C$2.40 (last month), based on exactly the sort of outstanding drill results my site visit led me to expect from the company. Here's how the transaction history has gone so far:
PLG and REN are still trading, and we're still expect good things from both, so there's no closing transaction there, but they are currently trading for C$1.96 and C$0.57, respectively.
One more note on this story; back in 2008, when AuEx and Fronteer were still exploring Long Canyon together, it became obvious that Fronteer was going to try to outspend AuEx and dilute its share of the project. That meant AuEx would have to finance in the midst of the worst liquidity crunch to hit the market for decades. On November 5, 2008, we advised readers to watch for a PP coming up, and sure enough, on November 11, AuEx announced a financing at $1.10 per unit. Each unit consisted of one common share and half a warrant, with each whole warrant good for another share at $1.38 per share for the first year and $1.65 for the second year. Our comment at the time: "As expected. We've asked management if there's a seat at the table for retail investors, and they are checking. We do recommend participating to those of you with Haywood accounts or who have brokers with good connections. That's what we'll be trying to do." Our gains in the International Speculator at the time of the FRG deal without the PP were 380.6%, but they were 478.7% with the PP. By the time of the NEM deal, they were 886.3% without and 1,034.9% with. Ten-bagger achieved. But Casey Investment Alert subscribers chalked up much larger gains: 1,053.5% at the time of the FRG deal and 2,267.1% by the time NEM took over Fronteer – and that's not counting the PP warrants. Watch This SpaceSo much for memory lane. The point of all these numbers and stories is to give you some insight on what it is I do, and what I plan to deliver, going forward: the next in a long string of spectacular wins, like AuEx. Last year was, frankly, a disappointing year for the Casey Investment Alert, but true speculators know that the biggest returns are made buying during and selling after corrections. Buy low, sell high. If Doug Casey is right about this year being the break-out year, we could be reminiscing about the next big success in the future, based on any of the companies in our portfolio today, or those to come. I've got my rock hammer and my smartphone, and I'm headed out soon to hunt for the next 10-bagger candidate, so keep your powder dry and hold some back for the next picks. Sincerely,
Casey Investment Alert is published by Casey Research, a Vermont-based publisher of investor advisory services that specializes in precious metal, energy, and technology stocks. Louis James, in addition to serving as Casey Investment Alert editor, is also the chief metals and mining investment strategist for Casey Research. Casey Investment Alert is usually closed to new members, but is currently accepting membership applications through February 15, 2013. More information is available here. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| The Gold Price Posted a Higher Low and a Slightly Higher High Posted: 13 Feb 2013 05:10 PM PST Gold Price Close Today : 1644.20 Change : -4.50 or -0.27% Silver Price Close Today : 30.854 Change : -0.002 or 0.00% Gold Silver Ratio Today : 53.290 Change : -0.143 or -0.27% Silver Gold Ratio Today : 0.01877 Change : 0.000050 or 0.27% Platinum Price Close Today : 1728.60 Change : -12.50 or -0.72% Palladium Price Close Today : 771.65 Change : 0.65 or 0.08% S&P 500 : 1,520.33 Change : 0.90 or 0.06% Dow In GOLD$ : $175.80 Change : $ 7.50 or 4.46% Dow in GOLD oz : 8.504 Change : 0.363 or 4.46% Dow in SILVER oz : 453.20 Change : -1.14 or -0.25% Dow Industrial : 13,982.91 Change : -35.79 or -0.26% US Dollar Index : 80.08 Change : 0.032 or 0.04% The GOLD PRICE closed $4.50 lower today at $1,644.20 but posted a higher low. Highs were nearly identical, $1,651.91 today against $1,651.87 yesterday. The SILVER PRICE traded to a higher high today at 3115c, and a higher low at 3071c, but closed down 15c at 3085.4c Clearly buyers support gold around $1,640 and silver around 3050c - 3070c. If those don't hold, maximum downside risk for silver is 2990 - 2960c and for the GOLD PRICE $1,600. Up above, no confirmation of a rally arrives before they close above 3250c and $1,705. We wait, stuck in the middle. Be patient, our time will come. I reckon I'm so old that my reflexes are slowing down. This morning in the car National Proletarian Radio played a clip from a speech O'Bama was making in Asheville, and before I could change the channel, turn it off, or rip the radio out of the dash (I'm slowing down, I tell y'all) I heard him say that his plan to revive the economy was to raise the minimum wage from $7.25 to $9.25. Let's see: how can we revive the economy and lower unemployment? I know! Let's RAISE wage costs for all employers, and price the lowest cost workers out of the market by raising the minimum wage! That way employers -- those our moronic policies haven't already driven out of business -- will have to buy machines to replace those low wage workers, and that will stimulate the economy! You can almost hear him and Ben guffawing over how smart they are. It's time for me to move on to the next galaxy. There's no intelligent life left in this one. Stock indices were confused today, some up, some down. Dow lost 35.79 (0.26%) and ended below the morale-busting or -boosting 14,000 at 13,982.91. I keep going back to the chart where I see what looks like one of those cartoons with the big fish gulping down a smaller fish who is gulping down a still smaller fish who is gulping down a minnow. It's Jaws of Death within Jaws of Death within Jaws of Death. Sooner or later, somebody's gonna get eaten. S&P500 rose by a miniscule 0.9 (0.06%). Doesn't really differ much from the Dow. In a month or so the weeping will begin. Went back and looked again -- my daily exercise -- at the Dow in Gold and Dow in Silver. Figuring the Dow in Gold began its fall in July 2009 at 10.04 oz (G$207.54), and it bottomed at 5.82 in July 2011, then today it stands nearly at a 61.8% correction of that fall. About 9 oz (G$186.05) would make a 75% correction, which nests with the target of 9.12 I already had in mind. Dow in Silver weekly chart has not yet reached its 200 day moving average (465.83), a likely target for a turnaround and about on par with the 50% correction of the last fall (473.57). Let us hear the end of the matter: both charts can rise more, but not much more. Maybe 5 or 6%. Note carefully the sound of claxons in the US Treasury security market. The 10 year treasury note yield really has broken out to the upside. Now at 2.02%, if it rises above 2.4%, Ben the Business Slayer has lost the battle against reason and the interest rate. Just what a struggling economy and an inflating dollar need, higher interest rates. US dollar rose an unimportant mite, 3.2 basis points to 80.083. While the dollar may have turned and has been generally rising since February began, it wilted yesterday when it struck the downtrend line from November's high. Bias is upward as it stands above its 50 and 20 DMAs. Euro remains broken below its late $1.3711 high. Yet it might still climb higher unless it closes below $1.3150. Lost a measly 0.3% today to end at $1.3354. Yen -- surprise, surprise -- did not sink again today to another new low. Rather, it rose 0.4% to 107.03c/Y100. No trend change yet. Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought. - Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger The-MoneyChanger.com 1-888-218-9226 10:00am-5:00pm CST, Monday-Friday © 2013, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission. To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down. WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned: Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures. NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps. NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced. NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt. What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands. One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose. No, I don't. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| U.S. Gold Is Being Exported To Asia, Especially Hong Kong Posted: 13 Feb 2013 05:05 PM PST The US reportedly exported $4 billion in NON-MONETARY gold in December and $36 billion for the year. That is 22 million ounces of exports or so for the year. The US produces 8 million ounces a year . Where did the 14 million ounce difference come from? Is the Federal Reserve giving all of our Gold away? U.S. Gold Bars and Coins Find New Home Overseas on Asian Demand By Frank Tang Reuters Monday, February 11, 2013 NEW YORK -- Booming demand for gold as a store of wealth among Asian investors is driving physical gold bars and coins out of the United States and into Asia. A growing number of gold vaults for affluent Asians and new precious metals investment products, particularly exchange-traded funds, have led to an exodus of gold owned privately from the United States into emerging economic powers such as China. On Friday, Commerce Department data showed U.S. exports of nonmonetary gold, which excludes central bank transactions, soared by 43 percent to $4 billion in December from the previous month. That's the highest total and the biggest month-on-month jump in U.S. private gold exports since September 2011, when gold rallied to a record high over $1,920 an ounce. Prices are currently about 14 percent below the peak at $1,643 per ounce. Hong Kong accounted for around $2 billion, or half of the nonmonetary gold exports for the month. Uncertainty about the U.S. fiscal situation and euro-zone debt crisis have prompted many ultra-rich gold investors to move their bullion holdings to Hong Kong and Singapore from traditional gold hubs in Switzerland, London, and New York. "As the Asian market becomes more affluent, we are seeing more private investors looking to move their metals offshore," said Miguel Perez-Santalla, vice president of online precious-metals exchange BullionVault. "People want to have their money next to them." A shortage of storage space has been a growing issue in Asia as vaulting companies have not kept up with the pace of inflow of physical bullion, he said. U.S. gold exports to Hong Kong have been steadily increasing in the past several years as wealthy Asian individuals looked to diversify their portfolios into gold, said Michael George, a commodity specialist at the U.S. Geological Survey. In November, ETF Securities launched three ETFs that are backed by physical precious metal in Hong Kong. Some money managers cited the recent U.S. fiscal crisis for the physical gold outflow. "The uncertainty over the debt ceiling and fiscal cliff have greatly diminished confidence in the U.S. banking system," said Jeffrey Sica, chief investment officer of SICA Wealth, which manages over $1 billion in client assets. George said some of the gold import to Hong Kong could be transferred to China and nearby countries such as Taiwan, which has also seen an increase in U.S. gold imports in recent years. Last Tuesday data showed Hong Kong's net gold flow to mainland China jumped 47 percent in 2012 to a record high of 557.478 tonnes, a sign of strong Chinese demand. China, the world's second largest economy, has been vying with India to be the world's top gold consumer. Gold demand from China is likely to grow around 10 percent in 2013, an official from the trade group World Gold Council said in a recent interview. Hong Kong's proximity to the prosperous southern China and free capital-flow environment have benefited the former British colony as China's trading window to the world. _________________________ Sprott sees scrap gold disappearing, expects Comex defaultSubmitted by cpowell on Mon, 2013-02-11 21:05. Section: Daily Dispatches 4p ET Monday, February 11, 2013 Dear Friend of GATA and Gold: Sprott Asset Management CEO Eric Sprott today tells King World News that scrap gold supply is disappearing, that he expects the Comex gold futures market to default, and that when it does, gold "will make up for these past two years in no time." An excerpt from the interview is posted at the King World News blog here: CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer ____________________________ Russia, China and Turkey bought the most gold in 2012Posted on 12 February 2013 The World Gold Council has released its latest list of the world's biggest gold buyers. So who bought the most gold in the past year? Russia, China and Turkey in that order, and India is out of the top three. Still that looks like the emerging markets hedging against a decline in the US dollar…Video Link _________________________ Putin's Russia Now World's Largest Gold Bullion Buyer -- Why? GET UPDATES FROM Raymond J. Learsy Posted: 02/12/2013 7:48 am On February 10 Bloomberg reported that "Putin Turns Black Gold Into Bullion as Russia Out-Buys World," advising that the world's largest oil producer's central bank has added some 570 metric tons of gold over the last several years for a total inventory of 958 tons. This while the likes of Switzerland, France and the Netherlands were selling significant quantities of their gold holdings. Yet purchases of gold under Putin have intensified to the point that Russia, as a matter of national policy and strategy, has surpassed all others in its tempo of gold accumulation. All of which then raises the question of why? When Putin tells the central bank "to buy," does he know something that the rest of us do not or can only guess? Certainly there is Putin's predilection, which he has made generally known, that he views the U.S. as endangering the global economy by abusing the dollar. Or as Putin's political ally Evgeny Federov is quoted in the article, "The more gold a country has, the more sovereignty it will have if there is a cataclysm with the dollar, the pound or any other reserve currency." All that certainly sounds reasonable enough given the propensity of central banks throughout the world to print their way out of the current financially orchestrated economic morass. But is there something else in play? Some two years ago, the U.S. Commodities Futures Trading Commission fined the commodities trading house Conagra $12 million because one of its traders at the time, with but a single trade, purposely pushed the price of oil to $100/bbl for no other reason than being the first to make this historic vanity trade. Aug 16, 2010 - U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission ... announced the filing and simultaneous settlement of charges against ConAgra Trade Group, ...The trader achieved this milestone by buying a single 1,000 barrel contract on the commodities exchange, requiring a deposit of but $6,500, thereby advancing the quoted price for oil by some 25 cents/bbl to reach the first fabled $100/bbl print. Consider that if the price of oil can be moved by a single trader, needing only some $6,500 as margin, what can be achieved on our pliable Commodity Exchanges with a trading war chest holding hundreds of millions if not billions? In this space early last year, I wrote "Oil Embargoes, Sherlock Holmes and the Russian Butler" (02.20.2012), which touched on the importance of oil and, manifestly, its price, to Russia's economy being so deeply dependent on the revenues derived from the sale of its oil and gas. It posited the following: We have a Russia that is governed by a coven comparable to our Wall Street "ole boys network," namely the alumni of Russia's highly touted secret service, the KGB. The KGB helped form Putin and many of his associates in government. Here was an organization that was the nonpareil master of clandestine intrigue, knowing how to keep secrets. Now in a sense, it is running the country albeit with the trappings of democratic governance.Given the stakes at hand, would it be a real surprise that with its wealth and given the economic and strategic importance of oil revenues to Russia's well being, and with the talent at hand, that Russia is doing whatever it can to keep the price of oil high and ever higher still? Very probably, it is not the concern of the collapse of the dollar and other reserve currencies that is motivating Putin to gobble gold, but the core knowledge that the current price of oil is a manipulated mirage aided by his minions and some day, whether sooner or later, will collapse upon itself. That the trading at the Commodity Exchanges' oil derivatives casinos, where the price of crude oil is currently pegged, is a rigged game. (please also see "The Oil Market Plays Casino While the Obama Administration Acts as Croupier" 09.10,11). Now while the going is good, and the price of oil is high, is the moment to pile in the gold because the mirage will eventually implode because it has no foundation in an unencumbered and freely traded marketplace. _________________________ ____________________________ traderdannorcini.blogspot.com / By Dan Norcini / Wednesday, February 13, 2013 Gold continues to work lower as it moves ever closer to a region that has heretofore provided substantial buying support. Bears are attempting to take it down through this support region in the hope of picking off the rather large contingent of sell stops sitting just under the market. It should be noted that they have strategically used the Chinese Lunar New Year holiday week to press their case. Without that strong physical offtake, speculators on the Comex have lost an important ally. It will be interesting to see what happens next week when that period in China is finished. By then however, it may be too late for the bulls. This market looks heavy to me. Note that on the technical chart, one of the indicators that I still use ( it is dated but still a very good tool) shows that the ADX of the Directional Movement Indicator is beginning to turn up from a very low level. A rising ADX (the dark line) is a sign that a market is in a TRENDING PHASE. So far, gold has been in a sideways consolidation pattern or range trade. That is evident from both the price action which has been confined between $1695-$1700 on the top and $1640 or so on the bottom. Along with that, the ADX has been falling which is indicative of a market in such a pattern.  ________________________________ Givin It All Away -BTO | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Gold - Safety Blanket or Quilting Essential? Posted: 13 Feb 2013 04:43 PM PST The patchwork quilt of diversification looks awful smart. It's more than pretty with gold in it, too. Investment experts keep telling us two things. One, you must diversify your savings. Nothing works for ever. Two, your annual returns are ... Read More... | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Posted: 13 Feb 2013 03:57 PM PST There was a time back in 2009 when GETCO was the absolute titan of the high frequency trading arena, printing money with the reckless abandon of a Federal Reserve on full tilt. It even got its own profile piece in the WSJ in the summer of 2009: "Meet Getco, High-Frequency Trade KingMeet Getco, High-Frequency Trade King." However, the good days were not to last as shortly thereafter we got a flash crash, then we got three + years of Ben Bernanke's (and every other bank's) central planning and some $10 trillion in combined exogenous liquidity to prop up the market, both of which resulted in the complete loss of faith in a standalone stock market by the retail investor (and once the current unwind of the December rotation from stocks into savings accounts over capital gains tax fears ends, the outflows will resume especially as latest ICI data shows with the smallest inflow into domestic equities to date in 2013). And since retail orders no longer would feed the frontrunning, sub-pennying, quote churning, flash crashing juggernaut that is HFT, that meant less revenue and profit for algo master GETCO. How much less? A whopping 82% less in the nine months ended September 30, 2012 compared to a year prior, and 92% less when annualizing 2012 results compared to the firm's heyday in 2008, the year in which it made a record $430 million in net income. Getco's net income as of September 30, 2012: a tiny $25 million. Which is why the status quo and the entire institutional infrastructure is so very desperate to get the retail investor out of hibernation and the "safety of bonds" and back in the corrupt casino known as the "stock market" dominated by the likes of Getco, Goldman, the G-7 (since the markets are now nothing more than a political vehicle to pass policy and promote a globalist agenda), and, of course, Ben Bernanke. To see the desperation visually, here is a chart of private GETCO's net income, which was revealed for the first time today as part of the S-4 filed in relation to the still very shady collapse and acquisition of former market making giant Knight Capital, which suicided itself in the span of 30 minutes after an errant algo literally destroyed the company. GETCO Net Income - the fun days are over.
Getco Revenue - not only a spending problem; a revenue problem too.
Yet while as revenues drop, even GETCO has no choice but to build out its collocation infrastructure, putting up ever bigger, ever faster, ever frontrunning-er computers at exchanges, just so it can in turn be bigger and faster than every one else who is immitating its strategy of bringing nothing more to the table than the fastest algorithm that can and will intercept any inbound orders and scalp pennies per trade on millions and millions of trades.
Oh well, it was fun while it lasted - and now, like with AAPL, like with every other industry in which the frontrunner no longer provides anything unique or special, the margin war begins. May the one with the largest balance sheet and biggest accordion credit facility win. And yes, it definitely was fun: one of the P&L line items broken down was the firm's "travel and entertainment" expenses. At $52.8 million in the past six years (annualizing the 2012 number), travel was probably modest, but the entertainment sure was grand, especially for whoever the clients on the receiving ends of the various expensed lap dances entertainments were.
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| Silver Wheaton: Interesting Business Model Posted: 13 Feb 2013 03:43 PM PST Founded in 2004, Silver Wheaton (SLW) is what is known as a metals streaming company. SLW is listed on both the New York and Toronto Stock Exchanges. Essentially, SLW purchases by-product silver and gold production from mining companies (base metal and gold companies), in exchange for:
Until a week ago SLW largely was a 'silver streamer' and received a comparatively small 'gold stream' from its mining and development stage partners. That silver/gold streaming mix changed on February 5 when SLW announced the acquisition (subject to final approval by Vale's Board) of:
SLW now has 15 'partners' who collectively operate 19 mines and four development stage projects in ten countries (Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Canada, Greece, Mexico, Portugal, Peru, Sweden and the United States). SLW's Vale acquisition cost is U.S.$1.9 billion, 10 million SLW 10 year term warrants with a U.S.$65 strike price, and subject to inflation adjustments for Salobo, U.S.$400 per ounce of gold delivered by Vale to SLW over the term of the contracts. I had the opportunity last week to speak with Randy Smallwood, CEO and President of SLW with respect to the Vale transaction. The transaction is without question material (i.e. significant) to SLW. In summary, Mr. Smallwood told me that:
I am a shareholder in SLW, and like this transaction and the direction it is taking the company. This is because I find gold somewhat easier to analyze and hence for me more predictable than I find silver, and as a result of this transaction SLW's gold/silver weighting has changed in favour of gold. As for SLW viewed overall, once one takes the time to review its business model, that business model is comparatively easy to understand. SLW can be said to be a different form of royalties company. In essence, what SLW does is:
What SLW does not do is directly face mining risk related to permitting delays and related costs, escalating capital costs, operating costs, environmental costs, and closure costs. I am specifically not recommending SLW to you. I do suggest you do your own research and discuss the company with your investment advisor. If you elect to do that, you might want to read Silver Wheaton: Major Miners are Knocking. Topical References: Silver Wheaton to acquire gold production from Vale SA, from The Globe and Mail, from The Canadian Press, February 5, 2013 (reading time 2 minutes). Also read:
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| Gold Is Money: Central Bank Actions Send Investors a Clear Message Posted: 13 Feb 2013 03:43 PM PST Germany recently made big news by announcing its plan to bring home part of its massive gold reserves. By retrieving 300 tons from New York and all 374 tons from Paris, 19% of its holdings – $36 billion worth – will be repatriated. By 2020, Deutsche Bundesbank expects to have 50% of its gold reserves stored in its Frankfurt vaults. While Germany's announcement is no longer front-page news, it is important to consider the reasons behind this move, and the message being sent to investors by central banks around the globe – gold is money. So fasten your seatbelt, this around-the-world tour is about to begin. GermanyThe reason given by the German central bank for its recently announced repatriation plan was to "build trust and confidence domestically, and the ability to exchange gold for foreign currencies at gold-trading centers abroad within a short space of time." Keeping reserves in London and New York – both international markets with great liquidity – affords Germany the ability to complete transactions quickly. Furthermore, Bundesbank has made it clear that this is not to be taken as a sign that it will be selling gold. Quite the opposite, as it also stated that this move is a "pre-emptive" measure "in case of a currency crisis." VenezuelaYou'll likely recall Hugo Chávez's repatriation of Venezuelan gold in late 2011 – a decision that was widely believed to be motivated by fears of US sanctions and frozen assets. Chávez, however, said the move was to "safeguard against volatility in financial markets." Admittedly, Chávez's decision did not hold the same weight as Germany's in the eyes of the world. Germany is an ally of the US, after all. However, having repatriated his gold just months before Europe's debt crisis took hold, it's hard to dismiss the foresight demonstrated by the 15th-largest gold holder in the world. RussiaRussia, with the eighth-largest holding of gold in the world – almost 938 tonnes (over $50 billion) – has been increasing its gold holdings hand over fist in recent years. In 2012, its gold reserves increased a hair shy of 55 tonnes, more than 6%. The reason given, according to Reuters, is "to diversify its foreign reserves away from paper assets it views as risky." SwitzerlandIn 2011, an alarm was raised as many realized that more than half of the Swiss national gold had been sold off. This gave rise to the "Gold Initiative: A Swiss Initiative to Secure the Swiss National Bank's Gold Reserves." Launched by four members of the Swiss parliament, the goal of the initiative is clearly identified in the name; to keep gold reserves secure through three requirements.
Two of the main reasons given for desiring to secure these reserves are: "the United States Federal Reserve and the European Union (with the European Central Bank ECB) are in the process of a de facto devaluation of their respective currencies, by printing tremendous amounts of Dollars and Euros"; and "These actions strongly affect the Swiss National Bank, as the Swiss franc runs the risk of being devaluated as well." As is stated clearly, "The greater the risk, the more important it is to maintain a sufficient gold stockpile!" The NetherlandsOf the Netherlands' 612.5 tonnes of gold, only about 11% is in Dutch vaults. Over half is in New York, with the rest divided between London and Ottawa. While recently the Dutch Christian Democratic Appeal Party has made an official appeal to repatriate Netherlands' gold reserves, interestingly, this is nothing new. In January, 2012, Willem Middelkoop warned that "The Netherlands should repatriate its gold as soon as possible." ChinaWhile the World Gold Council reports China as owning just over 1,054 tonnes of gold, it's a well-known fact that the Asian powerhouse is very secretive about its true holdings until it sees an advantage in reporting. Even then, speculation abounds as to the verity of its claims. Some have estimated that, in light of the 1,054 tonnes being reported in 2009, by the end of 2013 China may hold as much as 4,000 tonnes of the yellow metal. Even if this is true, it would still only represent approximately 8% of its total reserves. However, the gold market could react quite strongly if China announces reserves anywhere near these levels. As the world's largest gold producer for the past six years, China is perfectly capable of building reserves under the radar. Furthermore, due to its secrecy regarding its holdings, don't hold your breath waiting to find out how much gold it's holding. It seems somewhat incongruous that, unlike most central banks, the People's Bank of China encourages citizens to buy precious metals and pursues means of making them readily available. In light of gold's value as a hedge against currency devaluation, one can't help but wonder why. TurkeyBoasting the first known coin – the slater of Lydia (6th century BC) – Turkey has a rich and ancient relationship with precious metals. A great deal of speculation abounds regarding how much silver and gold the people have stashed as personal reserves. Turkey's central bank has launched an all-out campaign to persuade citizens to deposit these hoards in their vaults. This is the result of two changes in the banking system. The first was that gold's monetary stability was recognized more fully when banks were allowed to increase their gold reserves from 10% to 30%. Second, as of the fall of 2011, banks were also allowed to include any gold deposited by customers as part of their reserves. AzerbaijanWhile it's entirely possible you've not read about Azerbaijan in the headlines recently, it's interesting to note that the largest of the Caucasus states bought almost 15 tonnes of gold last year as part of a two-year goal to acquire 30 tonnes for its reserves. Recently it's begun taking delivery of the gold, formerly stored in JP Morgan's London vaults, moving it to Central Bank of Azerbaijan vaults in Baku. An Old Relationship RenewedIt's quite evident that the relationship between the world's central banks and gold has been changing in recent years. Just fifteen years ago, many were selling gold reserves at rock-bottom prices, seeing no real value in maintaining such vast quantities in their reserves. Today these same countries are facing public outcry as the citizenry realizes, albeit too late, that the real sovereign wealth of their nation has been squandered by myopic monetary policies. Other central banks are aggressively increasing their gold reserves. You, the InvestorAs investors, we should take note. After a couple decades of shunning gold as a useless relic, banks are refixing their sights on the yellow metal for many reasons. Central to these is the reality that gold represents the world's true money. Whether we're attempting to diversify our portfolios or hedge against inflationary fiscal policy, true money is one of the few tangible monetary investments backed up by its own intrinsic value.
While banks certainly overexposed themselves, leading to the debt crisis of 2008, this was followed by reducing risk through the implementation of more stringent guidelines. When those "more stringent" and less risky guidelines perceive gold more favorably, we need to sit up and take notice. If bank confidence in gold is growing even as confidence in paper currency exposure wanes, we seriously need to ask ourselves which we'd rather be exposed to. Gold clearly offers a solid opportunity in diversity and stability. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Gold Remains Pinned to Channel Support Posted: 13 Feb 2013 03:22 PM PST courtesy of DailyFX.com February 13, 2013 01:41 PM Daily Bars Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT using Marketscope 2.0 Commodity Analysis: “Gold’s rebound from the 61.8% retracement of the rally from 1522 and former resistance (June-August 2012 highs) is constructive but the near term picture is defined by roughly 1650 and 1700. A break of that zone will present the next directional opportunity.” The rebound from near term channel support highlights why it’s important to wait for a break of the January low before turning bearish. Commodity Trading Strategy: Flat LEVELS: 1590 1626 1639 1654 1685 1697... | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts Posted: 13 Feb 2013 02:22 PM PST This posting includes an audio/video/photo media file: Download Now | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Posted: 13 Feb 2013 02:16 PM PST [url]http://www.traderdannorcini.blogspot.com/[/url] [url]http://www.fortwealth.com/[/url] Gold continues to work lower as it moves ever closer to a region that has heretofore provided substantial buying support. Bears are attempting to take it down through this support region in the hope of picking off the rather large contingent of sell stops sitting just under the market. It should be noted that they have strategically used the Chinese Lunar New Year holiday week to press their case. Without that strong physical offtake, speculators on the Comex have lost an important ally. It will be interesting to see what happens next week when that period in China is finished. By then however, it may be too late for the bulls. This market looks heavy to me. Note that on the technical chart, one of the indicators that I still use ( it is dated but still a very good tool) shows that the ADX of the Directional Movement Indicator is beginning to turn up from a very low level. A rising ADX (the da... | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Gold Seeker Closing Report: Gold and Silver Fall With Oil Posted: 13 Feb 2013 02:15 PM PST Gold fell $6.13 to $1645.37 in London before it jumped up to $1653.43 in early New York trade, but it then drifted back lower for most of the rest of the day and ended near its late session low of $1640.20 with a loss of 0.51%. Silver slipped to as low as $30.72 and ended with a loss of 1.09%. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| GoldSeek.com Radio Gold Nugget: David Franklin, CEO Sprott Private Wealth & Chris Waltzek Posted: 13 Feb 2013 02:02 PM PST GoldSeek.com Radio Gold Nugget: David Franklin, CEO Sprott Private Wealth & Chris Waltzek | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Elgin Mining Reports Fiscal 2012 Production Results and 2013 Guidance and Plans Posted: 13 Feb 2013 02:00 PM PST Elgin Mining Inc. ("Elgin Mining" or the "Company") (ELG.TO)(TSX:ELG.WT) is pleased to announce strong production of 11,401 gold ounces for Q4-2012 and 46,808 gold ounces for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2012(1), respectively. Production surpassed the Company''s stated 2012 guidance of 44,000 to 46,000 gold ounces. The Company is also providing guidance on its gold production, and outlook for its operating, development and exploration budgets for 2013. All figures are in United States dollars ("$") unless otherwise stated. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Gold – Safety Blanket or Quilting Essential? Posted: 13 Feb 2013 01:41 PM PST INVESTMENT experts keep telling us two things. One, you must diversify your savings. Nothing works for ever. Two, your annual returns are set to be miserable, because there's no return to the out-sized gains of the 1980s and '90s. The last 10 years prove that. Now, we don't doubt Point 1. Not even people buying gold in 2001 could in fact see the future (though we might tell you different tomorrow). That second claim needs a closer look, however. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Gold, Teddy Bears and Patchwork Investing Posted: 13 Feb 2013 01:34 PM PST Gold investing – emotional safety blanket or rational diversification...? | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Posted: 13 Feb 2013 01:30 PM PST [COLOR=#0000ff]"Follow the [COLOR=#0000ff][U]munKNEE" [/U][/COLOR]via twitter & Facebook or Register to receive our daily Intelligence Report[/COLOR] Most Americans simply don’t understand that Russia and China have the power to collapse the U.S. economy by going to a gold for oil system.* All they have to do is pull the trigger. Words: 1515 So writes Michael ([url]http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com[/url]) in edited excerpts from his original article* entitledPetrogold: Are Russia And China Hoarding Gold Because They Plan To Kill The Petrodollar?. [INDENT]This article is presented compliments of www.FinancialArticleSummariesToday.com (A site for sore eyes and inquisitive minds) and [COLOR=#ff0000]www.munKNEE.com [/COLOR](Your Key to Making Money!) and may have been edited ([ ]), abridged (…) and/or reformatted (some sub-titles and bold/italics emphases) for the sake of clarity and brevity to ensure a fast and easy read. Please note that this paragraph must be included in any a... | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Casey's Energy Guru on What's Hot and What's Not in 2013 Posted: 13 Feb 2013 01:14 PM PST Synopsis: The best – and worst – ways to play the energy sector in 2013. (Interviewed by Louis James, Editor, International Speculator) L: Marin, it's been a long time since we asked you for an update on energy markets, which are your specialty. Given all that Doug says is coming down the pike, what do you see ahead, and how does one invest? Marin: I think that for the most part, we'll see a continuation of what we've seen for the last 18 months… L: That's not an encouraging thought. Marin: Maybe so, but that's the reality of what I see in the markets, especially when it comes to the juniors. There are a lot of subsectors of the energy markets for which I've been telling people to stay away from the juniors for at least 18 to 24 months. Thermal coal is an example. I'm glad we've stayed away, as the thermal-coal companies have become massive destroyers of wealth. L: Can you elaborate on that? We still need coal, so why aren't the current low prices a "buy low, sell high" setup? Marin: Well, there are two factors to consider. First, as I mentioned on national TV about two years ago, permitting coal projects – not just for production, but even for exploration – was going to become very, very difficult... especially in North America. L: All these people up in arms about "mountaintop mining" and such? Marin: Exactly. The reality is that nobody wants a coal mine in their back yard. This affects both thermal and metallurgical coal projects, but the two face different market dynamics. Met coal got slaughtered because of decreased steel manufacturing, while thermal coal got slaughtered because of the competition from natural gas. Still, both saw lower prices, and in an environment of much more difficult and expensive permitting, the companies are getting trashed. L: And the second factor? Marin: That's the new carbon tax the Obama administration is pushing. Believe it or not, the oil companies are actually supporting it. L: Why on earth would they do that? Marin: Because many of them are not just oil companies. A company like Exxon is as much a gas company as it is an oil company, and they're having a hard time competing with the national oil companies on the global market. So, they've come home and are buying up large reserves of natural gas, making a heavy commitment to North American natural gas. So it's in their interest jump on the Obama bandwagon and increase taxes on coal to benefit their gas investments in North America. L: Politics as usual. Got it. So, we keep staying away from coal, especially thermal coal. What about uranium? That's been in the news a lot lately as well, with Japan doing an about-face on its nuclear program. Marin: Yes, the new president of Japan basically stated that Japan has no choice but to bring its reactors back online. But it's not going to happen as quickly as the market wants it to happen, so while we've made good money on uranium plays in the last few months – and I'm very bullish on uranium – we've taken profits on our winners in our energy letters. We still have core holdings. Actually, we've written that we believe that Fukushima is the beginning of the fourth great bull market for uranium. With the Chinese, Russians, Koreans, and other countries committing to nuclear energy as part of their energy matrix, even after Fukushima the trend is very solid. By 2020, there's going to be another 88 reactors online. And already today, the US imports over 90% of the uranium it consumes. To put that into perspective, consider that in 1960, the US was the world's largest uranium producer. At the time, there were over 1,000 uranium mines in the US, producing over 36 million pounds of uranium every year. Today, there are eleven uranium mines, producing 3.4 million pounds a year. So America is producing less than 10% of what it produced in 1960, and yet is more dependent than ever on nuclear energy. One in every ten homes in America is powered by Russian uranium. L: Wow… I can see why you're still bullish. What else do you like these days? Marin: One of the most interesting and powerful market dynamics I see today is the European addiction to Russian natural resources. That can't change quickly, and there is a great potential for profit. The way we approach it in our letters is to ask ourselves how we can profit from the Putinization of Europe. It's not just oil and gas, but uranium as well, and non-energy resources. We've found several profitable niches. L: Okay. But getting back to the original question, if Doug Casey is right about the Greater Depression gathering force this year, that would seem bearish for energy. How do you strategize for that? Marin: I think there's a good chance Doug is right. So, in our newsletters, the first things we look at are management, cash, and expenditure programs in the specific jurisdictions the companies operate. We want companies that have a lot of cash, and will not need to go back to the market any time soon. From an equities standpoint in the resource sector, that's the ultimate Achilles heel of most resource companies. The reality is that most are, as Doug likes to day, burning matches. L: Sure, but you don't want companies that are just sitting on cash. Marin: Of course. We want companies that have the cash and the ability to advance a project that will deliver value. They need to have a project with technical merit, in a place where they can get it permitted – we use the same 8 Ps you do. Most important is that even if they do have the cash, get permitted, and drill a successful well, do they have the infrastructure to deliver that oil to the market and make money doing so? Energy is very different from mining. Certain wells are extremely expensive to drill, and you don't really know what you'll get until you do drill them. Once you do, you know right away if it worked out, what you have, and you can go into production if it all works out. Mining exploration is much cheaper, and the big capital expenditures don't come until after you know what you have, and have done a feasibility study on it. L: I get it; a big mine can cost several billion dollars to build, but you can drill a grid of holes that outline an ore body for just a couple million bucks. Marin: Yes. A single oil well in Kenya can cost north of $65 million. L: $65 million! I can build a modest but significant gold mine for that much. Marin: Yes, you could build a 25,000 to 45,000-ounces-per-year gold mine for that. But on the positive side, when you make your discovery in the oil patch, the path to cash flow is very short and fast, so the impact on share prices can be explosive. That's why I love energy stocks. L: Sure; the Casey team likes volatility. And I also see your point about infrastructure. With metals, if you have a concentrate that's valuable enough – not to mention gold or silver doré bars – you can transport your product anywhere in the world. But if you've got a well that's more gas than oil, and there's no pipeline network in the area that can handle it, you've got a product you can't sell. Marin: Exactly. L: Okay, let's talk about political risk – "resource nationalism" being the bogeyman of the day. Where are your favorite places in the world to invest? Are you willing to pay a premium for the safer jurisdictions? Marin: That varies by sector and the type of commodity. Some places are not workable for uranium exploration, for example, even though they are good for other kinds of mineral exploration. So I'm very bullish on WISR uranium production in the US. That is a term we created, so readers will see it here first: Warm In-Situ Recovery. WISR has much lower cost of production than other in-situ recovery projects in the US, comparable to those in Kazakhstan, but with much better environmental standards. I think that's going to be a strong trend to bet on over the next five years. I'd stay away from uranium plays in Europe, Africa, and South America – the risk is just too high. We've had a great run on the Athabasca Basin uranium plays, and having made our money, we've taken it back off the table. For oil-patch plays, I really like the East African Rift in Kenya. We were the first to recommend that area play. We've also taken profits there, but it's very interesting what's going on there. Those are large, world-class deposits being drilled off right now. I'm also very bullish on certain parts of Europe, where there are great, past-producing oil fields that have light, liquid-rich oil, but have not seen any modern exploration. And yet the people living in those places are paying a premium over global energy prices, because they are so dependent on imports from Russia and the Middle East. I'd warn people to be very careful about these junior Canadian oil companies that are chasing yield in the western sedimentary basin. I think there are a lot of risks associated with that, so there's little room for error. Because of the differentials – investors have to remember that just because you get $90 a barrel for WTI, that doesn't mean you'll get the same for Canadian oil far from any distribution infrastructure – any bad news can be fatal. L: So what do you look for in that kind of situation? Very near-term Push? Focus on quick wins, rather than big wins? Marin: Yes. For example, we recommended Atico and PRD Energy at the Casey conference last September, and both have more than doubled since then. Anything we recommend has to have cash in the bank, management have to be the largest shareholders, and they have to go for assets that matter – can really move the needle, by delivering sustainable cash flow. Like you, we start with the People. That's absolutely critical. L: Very good. Can you give us a sneak preview of what you're working for upcoming publications? Marin: We have a lot going on. Right now we're doing a complete analysis of the master limited partnerships and the American oil and gas sector, and a complete analysis on whether the US can actually become energy independent by 2035. I'll also be publishing an interview with a former senior OPEC official I recently spoke with. Also, a trip to Saudi Arabia is in the works – there's a lot in the pipeline. We're looking at juniors in the right places, because that's where the most volatility is – and the most potential for big profits. But if there is a big global economic pullback, most of these juniors don't have a chance. It's so capital intensive… A single ultra-deep oil well offshore can cost more than $100 million. The little guys won't stand a chance if the market turns negative and stays there for a few years. Maybe one thing we should highlight is that the game has really changed. It's become so much more expensive, and the big oil companies reserves are decreasing, because of the changing value of their BOEs. L: Not all oil equivalents are really equivalent to oil. Marin: Barrels of oil equivalent – BOEs – are the biggest scam in the energy sector today. They say they have a gas component of their production that's equivalent to so many barrels of oil, but they don't define what's in that gas. Is it methane? Butane? Propane? Pentane? All of these have different and changing values. The SEC allows the companies to roll all of this up as "BOE," but they are not all equal. And yet, many companies present their reserves as though their reserves were the same thing as oil. This is very important. L: How does the average investor know what the real value of a company's BOEs are, then? Marin: They have to really dig down deep into the PV10s and other technical disclosures. You have to have the ability to understand these reports and to be willing to put in the time into doing so. This is, I'm proud to say, one of our Casey advantages; we do this for all our energy publications. Few others will put out net-back reports as we do. What matters is not how many BOEs companies produce, but what they get back for them after delivery to the market. I don't mean to be negative, but a lot of people don't get this; and, frankly, they're screwed. L: That's a technical term. Marin: [Chuckles] Yes. L: Very well, then; words to the wise. Thanks for the interview, brother, and stay safe out there. Marin: You're welcome, and you too. L: Will do. Marin Katusa is chief energy investment strategist for Casey Research and the editor of two company newsletters on energy: Casey Energy Dividends, which focuses on low-risk dividend-paying energy stocks, and Casey Energy Report, which features junior energy exploration companies with huge profit potential. He also edits an elite alert service that covers fast-moving energy plays in the junior resource sector, Casey Energy Confidential. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Gold To Explode As A Percentage Of Global Currency Reserves Posted: 13 Feb 2013 01:06 PM PST  Today acclaimed money manager Stephen Leeb told King World News gold is going to soar as a percentage of global currency reserves. He also believes the West will be left holding the bag when this drama is complete. Here is what Leeb had to say: "This aversion to gold in our country, and these latest regulations from Basel saying that gold cannot be part of a liquidity buffer, central planners are doing everything they can to keep gold from being acknowledged as a currency."This posting includes an audio/video/photo media file: Download Now | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Buy Gold Stocks Like a ROTH Capital Price Taker Posted: 13 Feb 2013 01:04 PM PST The Gold Report: Brian, you started out as an analyst in the industrial sector. What brought you to ROTH and into the resource space? Brian Post: ROTH saw an opportunity in the resource space, but lacked exposure to it. Once I familiarized myself with the technical aspects, I felt my previous experience was transferable. I now cover precious metals and some base metal assets, and in the last two years we have brought on an additional analyst who looks at resources from a cleantech perspective, which includes rare earths, other industrial metals and renewable energy, including uranium. We plan to build on this platform. TGR: When you speak to clients in Southern California, are they receptive to investing in resource stocks? BP: Looking solely at Southern California, investors are sparse. However, my contacts and outreach are global, including accounts in Europe, and we are gaining traction in investment hubs like New York, Toronto and San Francisco. [INDENT]"Mexico is one of the ... |
During most of the 2000s, I patiently sat on the sidelines while the paper-fueled run up in asset prices (primarily stocks and real estate) in my home country took off.
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