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• Gold And The Fiscal Cliff
• Emerson Electric Has Raised Its Dividend For 56 Consecutive Years
• Why investors, fearful of currency depreciation, have turned to gold…
• Gold in a Crisis: How Can Gold Protect You?
• Mining Companies: Why Smaller Is Better
• A Train Wreck in the Bond Markets
• Fidelity Physical Gold IRA
• Precious Metals Set For Higher Weekly Close And Seasonal Year End Rally
• New Normal: Dwelling Over the Fiscal Cliff
• PAMP/Credit Gold Shortage-MTB MIA
• Watching silver lease rates....
• The Four Horsemen Ride Again
• Survey Shows Most Traders Bullish on Bullion
• Precious Metals Set for Higher Weekly Close
• Gold Reasserting Itself as the Fear Index?
• Chart of the Week: Gold and an Ever-Growing Balance Sheet
• James Turk: crunch time for US in 2013-15 timeframe
• Thracian Tomb Treasures
• China to Overtake India in Overall Gold Demand: GFMS
• Three King World News Blogs/Audio Interviews
• Charteris: Silver to rise 500%, gold to hit $2,500 in 2015
• Links 11/9/12
• The Madness of Markets – US Treasuries vs. Gold
• When Infinite Inflation Isn't Enough
• Links for 2012-11-08 [del.icio.us]
• US Dollar Technical Update...So Far, So Good

Gold And The Fiscal Cliff Posted: 09 Nov 2012 01:10 PM PST By Evariste Lefeuvre: In the wake of the U.S. election, there has been much speculation about how various asset classes would be affected by the debt negotiations during the Lame Duck Session of Congress prior to the fiscal cliff. In particular, it has been written that gold could outperform. If grand bargain failure means uncertainty, the outcome on gold may not be straightforward as the 15 days' correlation between daily changes in VIX and Gold is not significant (within the 0.5/-0.5 bracket). History is not always a good barometer but a look at assets returns behavior during the debt ceiling crisis can provide some interesting information. (click to enlarge) During the period ramping up to the deadline (August 2), the SP 500 dropped 7.3%, gold went up 8.4% while the USD remained broadly unchanged. In spite of the threat in U.S. Treasury funding and rating, 10-year yields edged down by 50 basis points Complete Story »

Emerson Electric Has Raised Its Dividend For 56 Consecutive Years Posted: 09 Nov 2012 12:26 PM PST By Dividends4Life: 56 years is a long time to do anything. In 1956 (56 years ago) a new car cost around $2,050. The U.S. population was 169 million and the world population was at 2.8 billion. A gallon of gas in U.S. cost 22 cents, while a loaf of bread cost 18 cents. Gold was $35 an ounce and silver was 90 cents an ounce. You could mail a letter first class for just 3 cents. Elvis Presley made his first television appearance on The Dorsey Brothers Stage Show. Ernie Kovacs becomes the host for NBC's The Tonight Show on Mondays and Tuesdays. Bob Barker makes his first appearance on Truth or Consequences. An estimated 45 million people watched The Wizard of Oz in its TV debut on CBS. Around the World in 80 Days won the Academy Award for best motion picture. Yul Brynner in The King and I won Best Complete Story »

Why investors, fearful of currency depreciation, have turned to gold… Posted: 09 Nov 2012 11:29 AM PST A Train Wreck in the Bond Markets NOT SO LONG AGO, everyone seemed to think Greece was about to leave the Euro. Well, it hasn't. Yet. And remember when Spain's government was only days away from requesting a formal bailout? Well, it hasn't. Yet. Never underestimate the power of Europe's politicians to press the slow-mo button on the single currency car crash. But how long can all this go on? Things are getting worse, not better. As FT Alphaville reports, Greece is facing another potential default next week, while Spain's auction of 5-Year bonds this week was described by one trader as "awful", with a wide range of bids suggesting little market consensus on how the bonds should be priced. Reuters reports that this was the first time in 18 months that Spain has tried to sell longer-term bonds. Take a look at the following chart from the Spanish Treasury, showing the maturity profile of Spanish government debt. See the big spike for 2013? Spain's debt is piling up at the short end. In a video recorded earlier this year, BullionVault founder Paul Tustain likens this phenomenon to a train wreck in the bond markets, with government debt piling up against the buffers until that government is either forced to default, or a devaluation of the debt is orchestrated with central bank assistance – for example with interest rates held below inflation for a sustained period. Of course, devaluing debt means devaluing currency itself. This is where gold comes in. Many investors worry that their currency will fail to hold its value. Many of those have turned to gold. At the time of writing, gold in Euros is within 1.5% of its all-time high set last month. For gold priced in Dollars, the gap is closer to 10%, from a high hit over a year ago. Why the discrepancy? Because the crisis is more intense in Europe, that's why. The value of the Euro is under far greater scrutiny. Many investors believe the Dollar will one day face a similar test. Some of those have added gold to their portfolio. To find out why, set aside twenty minutes or so and watch Paul's video from the beginning. Ben Traynor BullionVault Gold value calculator   |   Buy gold online at live prices Editor of Gold News, the analysis and investment research site from world-leading gold ownership service BullionVault, Ben Traynor was formerly editor of the Fleet Street Letter, the UK's longest-running investment letter. A Cambridge economics graduate, he is a professional writer and editor with a specialist interest in monetary economics. Ben writes and presents BullionVault's weekly gold market summary on YouTube and can be found on Google+ (c) BullionVault 2012 Please Note: This article is to inform your thinking, not lead it. Only you can decide the best place for your money, and any decision you make will put your money at risk. Information or data included here may have already been overtaken by events – and must be verified elsewhere – should you choose to act on it.

Gold in a Crisis: How Can Gold Protect You? Posted: 09 Nov 2012 10:42 AM PST Investors fearful for their currencies are turning to Gold Bullion. But why...? read more

Mining Companies: Why Smaller Is Better Posted: 09 Nov 2012 10:34 AM PST Having invested in mining companies for quite a few years now; one of the first lessons I learned was to never touch the large-cap miners. However, before I explain my own reasoning, I want to quote a Bloomberg article from this morning which attempted to cover the same subject: New Gold Inc. (HGD) Executive Chairman Randall Oliphaunt, who helped build Barrick Gold Corp. into the world's largest producer of the precious metal, says he prefers running a smaller gold miner than a big one. Companies that produce fewer than 2 million ounces annually have more opportunities to increase output, said Oliphaunt, who was chief executive officer of Toronto-based Barrick from 1999 to 2003 and joined Vancouver-based New Gold six years later. It's "very challenging" to expand a large, established gold company, he said… The problem with this Bloomberg article is that while it goes to great lengths to document the fact that large-cap gold miners are gross under-achievers while the junior and mid-cap gold miners have  provided very attractive rates of return, it never explains why. Why do smaller gold miners "have more opportunities to increase output"? Why is it "very challenging" for the senior gold miners to grow? It's very simple: because large-cap gold miners (and large mining companies, in general) have the world's most-idiotic business model. All large-cap mining companies have a very simple "rule" they live by: they only want to develop/produce large mining projects. Let's assume that it is not purely the egos of the suit-stuffers who run these companies which prevents them from getting involved in smaller projects. Why are most large-cap mining companies not interested in developing smaller mining projects – no matter how high the profit margins will be? There can only be one answer to this question: they focus purely on larger projects in order to have the greatest total output while managing the fewest number of mines. This, in turn, implies a corresponding belief: that the more mines these large-cap miners have to manage, the more things which can go wrong. The rebuttal of shareholders to this attitude should be automatic: "if you can't stand the heat, get out of the kitchen." These companies chose to be large-cap corporations. It's especially easy for mining corporations to spin-off mines – either through outright sales, or simply setting up independent operations. When a corporation decides to become very large, this presumes administrative competence. A competent management team should not tremble in fear at the idea of running twenty, small, very profitable mines rather than five, huge inefficient ones. This leads us to yet another question: why do smaller mining operations tend to be more profitable and/or efficient? We can answer this question simply by taking a closer look at the development of the mining mega-projects which these large-cap miners covet/demand. It's certainly true in mining (as in any other business) that the more outlets you operate, the more things which can go wrong. However, more unique to mining is the reality that as these projects grow in size individually, the number of things "which can go wrong" increases nearly exponentially.

A Train Wreck in the Bond Markets Posted: 09 Nov 2012 10:20 AM PST Many investors worry that their currency will fail to hold its value. Many of those have turned to gold. At the time of writing, gold in euros is within 1.5% of its all-time high set last month.The crisis is more intense in Europe, that's why.

Fidelity Physical Gold IRA Posted: 09 Nov 2012 09:44 AM PST Any thoughts on Fidelitys Physical Gold/Silver IRA. My 401K is with Fidelity, we have been sold and I see that Fidelity offers a IRA that holds the coins, limited mainly to US coins. 1-2% or so charge to buy and sell. I'll have to check into other fees. How does this work, do they cash you out in the actual coins or FRNs? Any thoughts on this? I'd rather not cash out and take the hit and penalty to buy physical, but have no faith any longer in stocks, bonds or cash. Already debt free and have good investment in property, some PM's and other tangible assets, and will continue to do so. https://www.fidelity.com/trading/inv...ilver-platinum

Precious Metals Set For Higher Weekly Close And Seasonal Year End Rally Posted: 09 Nov 2012 08:36 AM PST gold.ie

New Normal: Dwelling Over the Fiscal Cliff Posted: 09 Nov 2012 08:00 AM PST Metals markets opened mixed this morning as the final session of quite an active week got underway. Spot gold was down less than $2, with a bid at $1,731 and silver was off 13 cents at $32.18 per ounce.

PAMP/Credit Gold Shortage-MTB MIA Posted: 09 Nov 2012 07:45 AM PST Hi, Does anyone here have any news on the PAMP/Credit gold shortage in the secondary market? Almost everywhere is either out of stock or delayed. I know MTB who distributes much/most/(all?) of PAMPs products is in NYC and is underwater and no one knows when they might be back. Does anyone have an idea as to when they might be back and/or other causes for Credit and PAMP shortages?

Watching silver lease rates.... Posted: 09 Nov 2012 06:56 AM PST I have been watching the silver lease rates for a while now...I can not remember a time when Kitco has gone so long without updating their info...last update was November 2, 2012.....:hmpf:

The Four Horsemen Ride Again Posted: 09 Nov 2012 06:24 AM PST The vehicles that constitute "the four horsemen of the apocalypse" are as follows: US Treasuries US Dollar Gold $VIX Volatility Index click to enlarge  Why the four horsemen? Because when you see all four of these rise at the same time, the underlying message is very, very ominous. Under normal circumstances, these market bellwethers are not correlated. The "horsemen" generally do not ride in the same direction. When gold is going up, the dollar and USTs are normally going down, or vice versa and so on. When all rise together, however, it indicates an extreme correlation of "risk off" and diminished risk appetite across the board. US treasuries rise via their designation as the ultimate deep liquidity safe haven instrument. Gold rises as the "alternative currency" not subject to a printing press — the safe haven for those who fear USTs are booby-trapped. The dollar rises as US investor capital is repatriated from emerging markets (and foreign investor capital flows into bonds). And the VIX rises as equity risk assets are being shunned… Why is this happening now? One possibility is rising concern over the "fiscal cliff," and the likelihood of partisan deadlock, as the threat of automatic tax hikes loom (via the expiration of time limited reductions). Some believe that the heavy selling we are seeing, especially in market bellwethers like Apple (AAPL), is at least partially the result of capital gains lock-in prior to a higher taxation period. The selloff could also be for reasons related to our thesis, "What if recovery is actually bearish?" With the US economy on a muddle-through uptick, the law of diminishing returns for stimulus is coupled by greater likelihood of the Federal Reserve staying its hand… or not seeing much benefit from additional half-hearted efforts (likely not enough to offset deteriorating corporate profit margins and revenues anyway)… click to enlarge By the way, a quick word on AAPL… there was no reason for traders to be caught long in this murderous downdraft. AAPL, for so long the market darling, is now in a full-fledged bear market. The stock has sliced through its 200 EMA like butter. In warning on AAPL various times on Stocktwits these past few months — in respect to the signs as clearly shown on the chart — we were repeatedly challenged by permabulls. The latest round of permabull responses was the most amusing, to the effect of "I know a guy who bought four years ago and he is still very happy…" Well good for him. If he wants to completely ignore warning signs that's his business… One thing that many traders, let alone fundamental investors, do not understand, is that technicals are very useful as a form of risk control in terms of providing warning signs as to when a position is markedly deteriorating…  Even if you don't believe in charts at all, and make all your decisions based on fundamentals, charts can be useful in telling you something. As the saying goes, no one rings a bell at market tops. But topping is frequently a process, with plenty of signs and signals to go with, and the time to especially pay attention to technical warning signs is when the technicals align with a plausible fundamental case as to why a stock could be topping out… which is exactly what we saw in AAPL, re, possibilities of "peak euphoria" combined with intensifying market competition and product maturation cycles in the iPhone 5 and iPad mini. click to enlarge To the above some will say "Okay wise guys, why weren't you short AAPL then?" To which we say, we are short AAPL, more or less… as documented and time-stamped in the Mercenary Live Feed, we are short QQQ from October 19th @ 66.95. Because AAPL is roughly 20% of QQQ's weighting, we felt the position in the Q's was worthy to express our doubt and skepticism there. We will ring the cash register on our QQQ short position this morning (Friday Nov 9th), however, as the AAPL carnage, at least short term, now looks maxed out / near overdone… while there is real "four horsemen" potential building for a full-on market blowout (or even a crash) in coming days, we have a good number of other attractive shorts on — apart from the multiple we are cashing in on today — and will also be establishing a large new position soon (if the signal follows through) to exploit potential crash conditions. As usual, to see all our positions, entry setups, position sizing, and detailed rationales in real time, check out the Mercenary Live Feed… JS (jack@mercenarytrader.com)  p.s. Like this article? For more, visit our Knowledge Center! p.p.s. Sign up for our Hedge Fund Regulatory Alerts! p.p.s. follow us on Stocktwits & Twitter! @MercenaryJack and @MercenaryMike

Survey Shows Most Traders Bullish on Bullion Posted: 09 Nov 2012 05:28 AM PST Prices in the wholesale gold bullion market traded above $1,730 an ounce Friday morning in London, having earlier touched a two-week high, while stocks fell and the dollar and US Treasury bonds gained.

Precious Metals Set for Higher Weekly Close Posted: 09 Nov 2012 05:19 AM PST Gold and silver are set for higher weekly closes in all fiat currencies which may negate the recent bearish short term technical picture and set the precious metals up for the traditional yearend rally.

Gold Reasserting Itself as the Fear Index? Posted: 09 Nov 2012 05:06 AM PST Safe-haven bids for gold have re-appeared as the markets immediately turned their attention to the fiscal cliff and the European debt crises after the US election uncertainty has been removed.

Chart of the Week: Gold and an Ever-Growing Balance Sheet Posted: 09 Nov 2012 03:46 AM PST Frank Holmes, U. S. Global Investors writes: While Americans were still submitting their ballots, gold rallied on the possibility of a President Barack Obama reelection. With presidential results confirmed, it appears that Ben Bernanke's job of hovering over the economy and dropping parachutes of money out of his helicopter is secure. "Gold could not have asked for a better outcome," with a second term for Obama, a Democratic Senate and Republican House, says UBS Investment Research. As the research firm explains in its morning note, "the high likelihood of political gridlock up ahead as attention now turns to the fiscal cliff and the debt ceiling certainly presents upside opportunities for gold." UBS says the gold market isn't even pricing in the outcome of the next Federal Open Market Committee meeting in December when the "conclusion of Operation Twist will morph into further quantitative easing." Our chart of the week shows the substantial impact of the Federal Reserve's decision. In a weekly report, Robert Perli of International Strategy and Investment (ISI) projected the enormous growth of the U.S. balance sheet if quantitative easing continues over the next few years. Currently the Fed is buying mortgage-backed securities at a rate of $40 billion each month. The dashed orange line assumes that if this $40 billion per month continues over the next few years, America's balance sheet expands to about $4.5 trillion by the end of 2016. However, the $40 billion was on top of the previous spending spree on Treasury securities. Added together, this means that Ben Bernanke is forking over $85 billion per month through the end of 2013, which "makes a provocative picture," says Perli. You can see below that if this open-ended spending continues through the end of 2016, the U.S. balance sheet swells to nearly $7 trillion! In his October 1 speech in Indiana, Bernanke explains his reasoning behind the Fed's buying spree: "We expect these purchases to put further downward pressure on longer-term interest rates, including mortgage rates. To underline the Federal Reserve's commitment to fostering a sustainable economic recovery, we said that we would continue securities purchases and employ other policy tools until the outlook for the job market improves substantially in a context of price stability." This chart is only one reason gold investors like me are bullish. Here are other positive dynamics for gold and gold stocks: Special Gold Report: What's Driving Gold Companies Blog Post: A Tipping Point for Gold Companies Blog Post: How Helicopter Ben Helps Jobs and, Inadvertently, Gold Presentation: Why Gold Stocks are Lagging Gold November 8, 2012 (U. S. Global Investors) http://www.usfunds.com/investor-resources/frank-talk/chart-of-the-week-gold-and-an-ever-growing-balance-sheet/?CFID=1906444&CFTOKEN=69641925

James Turk: crunch time for US in 2013-15 timeframe Posted: 09 Nov 2012 03:45 AM PST Gold has been the standout winner following the US election. The metal's performance yesterday was particularly impressive in that it coincided with notable losses in stock markets. The Wall ...

Thracian Tomb Treasures Posted: 09 Nov 2012 03:43 AM PST Beautiful find. A hoard of ancient gold artifacts. :thumbs_up: http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012...sures-thracian Probably too early to put a value on it yet.

China to Overtake India in Overall Gold Demand: GFMS Posted: 09 Nov 2012 02:59 AM PST ¤ Yesterday in Gold and Silver The gold price traded pretty flat through all of Far East and London trading on Thursday.  But the moment London closed for the day...4:00 p.m. GMT...11:00 a.m. in New York...a smallish rally developed that came to an end at 3:00 p.m. Eastern in electronic trading...and from there, gold got sold down a few bucks into the 5:15 p.m. close. The high tick came shortly before 3:00 p.m...and that was recorded as $1,736.20 spot. Gold closed the Thursday trading session at $1,731.90 spot...up $14.60 on the day.  Net volume was a far more reasonable 135,000 contracts. Silver's absolute low tick [about $31.60 spot] came around 11:00 a.m. GMT in London...and once the noon silver fix was out of the way, the price began to rally in fits and starts...as every New York rally attempt ran into a willing seller the moment that it showed any signs of becoming "irrationally exuberant". The silver price topped out shortly after 3:00 p.m. in New York...and then gold sold off a hair into the 5:15 p.m. Eastern time close.  The high tick was $32.56 spot which, looking at the 24-hour silver chart below, I find hard to believe. Ordinarily I'd post the New York Spot Silver [Bid] chart to lay the matter to rest...but it's M.I.A. on Kitco's website. Silver closed at $32.31 spot...up 47 cents from Wednesday.  Volume, net of roll-overs, was only 29,500 contracts. The dollar index did zip...hovering just under the 81.00 mark all day long.  It opened at 80.81...and its feeble rally attempt to get above the 81.00 level crashed and burned...and the index closed at 80.81.  It was obvious that the price movements in the precious metals had to do with other factors. The shares didn't do much...and I wouldn't read a heck of a lot into yesterday's HUI action.  It closed up 0.71%. With the odd exception, the silver shares turn in a real decent performance yesterday.  But two of the stocks that didn't have a good day on Thursday...CDE and PAAS...make up a decent chunk of Nick Laird's Silver Sentiment Index.  And because of that, it only closed up 0.10%. (Click on image to enlarge) The CME's Daily Delivery Report showed that 10 gold and 4 silver contracts were posted for delivery on Monday within the Comex-approved depositories. Once again both GLD and SLV showed increased in their holdings.  In GLD an authorized participant added 77,517 troy ounces of gold...and in SLV it was 1,549,091 troy ounces. The U.S. Mint had a decent sales report as well.  They sold 13,000 ounces of gold eagles...3,000 one-ounce 24K gold buffaloes...and 148,000 silver eagles. The Comex-approved depositories showed that 309,750 troy ounces of silver were withdrawn on Wednesday...and nothing was received.  The link to that activity is here. I have three charts for you today.  The first was from a colleague of Australian reader Wesley Legrand.  It's the Dollar Index vs. the Gold Price going back about thirteen years. Wesley's colleague had this to say about the relationship between the two... "There are periods were there has been an obvious inverse correlation, but then there are also extended periods where both gold and the USD index have risen together including the last 1.5 years (this is a monthly chart)." "Of particular significance, over the last eight years when the price of gold starting rising more rapidly, the price of gold rose from $400 to $1,700 and the USD has been in a trading range, but has ended up exactly where it started eight years ago, at 80." "So the USD index is unchanged after eight years during which the price of gold quadrupled." "I think the relationship is more psychological than anything else." [He would be right about that! - Ed] (Click on image to enlarge) This next chart contains only three days of data...starting with the U.S. election day on Tuesday...and ending at the close of trading yesterday. It's a "Gold vs. Everything Else" chart.  Note how the gold price stands out above all others.  The other traces are the dollar index, the U.S. 10-year treasury, the S&P...and the commodity index. I thank Washington state reader S.A. for sending it...and I just know he stole it from a Zero Hedge article. (Click on image to enlarge) The third graph is from Vancouver, Washington reader Duane Zelinka.  It's a graph from an AP story posted in the 'Critical Reads' section below...but in case you pass on the story, I want to make sure you at least skim the graph...and it needs no further embellishment on my part. I have the usual number of stories for a weekday column and, as always, the final edit is up to you. Email Print Whenever JPMorgan Chase, SLV and silver get mentioned together in the same sentence, I think it's worth pointing out. Sprott Physical Silver Trust [PSLV] Announces Offering. James Turk on Russia Today's Capital Account: Overestimated Gold Stock...and German Repatriation. Italy busts suspected gold-smuggling network. ¤ Critical Reads Subscribe Ron Paul: We're Broke and Already Over the Fiscal Cliff This 6:32 minute video interview was posted over at Bloomberg yesterday...and the brain dead Betty Liu is way over her head here.  Ron Paul is, as usual, right on the money.  I thank Federico Schiavio for providing our first story of the day...and the link is here. View full GSD edition Budget Disarray: U.S. Set to Restage Greek Tragedy The US has more in common with heavily indebted southern European countries than it might like to admit. And if the country doesn't reach agreement on deficit reduction measures soon, the similarities could become impossible to ignore. The fiscal cliff looms in the near future, and its not just the US that is under threat. With the elections behind them, Americans are now facing a different, much more real horror scenario: In just a few weeks time, thousands of children could be denied vaccinations, federally funded school programs could screech to a halt, adults may be forced to forego HIV tests and subsidized housing vouchers would dry up. Even the work of air-traffic controllers, the FBI, border officials and the military could be drastically curtailed. That and more is looming just over the horizon according to the White House if the country is allowed to plunge off the "fiscal cliff" at the beginning of next year. Coined by Federal Reserve head Ben Bernanke, it refers to the vast array of cuts and tax increases which will automatically go into effect if Republicans and Democrats can't agree on measures to slash the US budget deficit. This article was posted on the German website spiegel.de yesterday...and I thank Donald Sinclair for sending it along.  It's definitely worth reading...and the link is here. View full GSD edition Argentine Judge Orders Chevron Asset Seizure, Plaintiffs An Argentine judge ordered the seizure of all Chevron Corp.'s assets in the country, according to Enrique Bruchou, a lawyer representing Ecuadorean plaintiffs in a lawsuit over pollution in the Amazon rain forest. Bruchou, an Argentine attorney at Bruchou, Fernandez, Madero & Lombardi, made the comments today in a conference call. Civil Judge Adrian Elcuj Miranda ordered 40 percent of Chevron's Argentine bank accounts to be held in escrow, Bruchou said. Miranda declined to comment when contacted by Bloomberg saying judges speak through their rulings. The Ecuadorean plaintiffs said Oct. 31 they were asking an Argentine court to enforce a $19 billion award against Chevron, filing an attachment order in a Court of Justice in Buenos Aires in line with an international treaty signed by Ecuador, Argentina and Colombia that speeds up attachments. The Ecuadoreans blame Texaco Inc., which Chevron acquired in 2001, for destroying the environment in the Lago Agrio region, damaging living conditions of 30,000 inhabitants. Lago Agrio was named after Sour Lake in Texas. This Bloomberg story was filed from Buenos Aires mid-afternoon Mountain Time on Wednesday...and I thank Donald Sinclair for his second story in a row.  The link is here. View full GSD edition The Bank of England is falling out of love with QE Rarely has such a non-event had so big a build-up. The Bank of England has held interest rates at 0.5pc but, more significantly, it has left the stock of quantitative easing (QE) unchanged at £375 billion. Roll back just one month, and another £50 billion of QE was pinned on. A number of economists had even been expecting a rate cut to 0.25pc. Hints dropped by the Bank as well as the Monetary Policy Committee's (MPC) voting patterns all seemed to point to more QE. Then something changed. On the face of it, it was the economy. The big news was the 1pc rise in growth in the three months to September. But there were other equally important statistics. Unemployment dropped to 7.9pc, well below forecasts as the private sector continued to create jobs – both full-time and part-time. And inflation fell to 2.2pc, just a whisker above target and carrying the promise of improved economic growth. The public finances were also in better shape than thought. But, for all the good news, that wasn't it. This short blog by The Daily Telegraph's economics editor Philip Aldrick is a must read in my opinion...and I thank Federico Schiavio for his second offering in today's column.  The link is here. View full GSD edition Butting Heads on the EU Budget: Merkel and Cameron Deadlocked ahead of Summit The front lines in the battle over the European Union budget remain unchanged. A dinner on Wednesday evening in London between German Chancellor Angela Merkel and British Prime Minister David Cameron brought no breakthroughs. Cameron reaffirmed that he would call for a decrease in the budget proposed to fund the EU from 2014 to 2020 at the bloc's summit on Nov. 22. The atmosphere between the two during the dinner at Number 10 Downing Street was good, according to German government officials. But in terms of substance, as expected, neither side budged. The morning before the meeting even took place, the Financial Times said sardonically that the pair of conservatives "enjoy one of the warmest but least productive relationships in European politics." Merkel came to London in the hopes of pressuring Cameron into a joint position on the budget dispute. "Great Britain and Germany are both net contributors, meaning we have a good deal of common interests," she said. At the same time, she wanted to make it clear to Cameron that the patience of his EU partners should not be tested. In principle, she agrees with the UK that in light of austerity programs on the national level, the EU budget should not be increased. But with the euro crisis still taking up much of her attention, she is willing to allow a modest spending increase in the interest of reaching a swift decision and avoiding a drawn-out battle among EU member states. This story was posted on the spiegel.de Internet site yesterday...and I thank Roy Stephens for sending it.  The link is here. View full GSD edition Unpalatable choices facing Ireland if Britain leaves EU After many centuries of semi-detachment from continental affairs, Britain joined the then EEC four decades ago. For well over half of the period since, Europe has been among the most divisive issues in British politics. It has become ever more divisive as the balance of forces move against membership. Working in London as an analyst of European affairs for over decade from 1998, I was constantly struck by the steady and rapid decline in the number of people and organisations holding the view that Britain's national interests were best served by EU membership. This was most notable at the political level. On the Conservative side, no young pro-Europeans emerged to replace the aging pro-EU politicians. Tories under 50 today are all – to varying degrees and in many different ways – hostile to Europe and see their country's future in a looser arrangement with the EU, if not entirely decoupled from it. This story showed up on the irishtimes.com Internet site yesterday...and I thank Roy Stephens once again for bringing this item to our attention.  The link is here. View full GSD edition Who will stop the Sado-Monetarists as jobless youth hits 58pc in Greece? Greek unemployment rose to 25.4pc in August. Youth unemployment rose to 58pc. Under the official forecast, the economy will contract by a further 4.5pc next year, so it fair to assume that lots more people are going to lose their jobs. It is certainly not going to improve in any meaningful way for years to come. This is what happens when you lock into the wrong currency and block the escape routes – or join a "burning building with no exits" in the words of William Hague. It is hard to see how the salary and pension cuts, etc, pushed through the Greek parliament last night with enormous difficulty can do any more than buy a few months' delay. The protests on Wednesday bordered on urban guerrilla warfare. It will not take much to cross that line. Even before I clicked on The Telegraph's headline in my in-box, I knew that this was an Ambrose Evans-Pritchard offering.  It's an absolute must read as well...and it's the third of four in a row from Roy Stephens.  The link is here. View full GSD edition

Three King World News Blogs/Audio Interviews Posted: 09 Nov 2012 02:59 AM PST Three King World News Blogs/Audio Interviews The first blog is with Marc Chandler of Brown Brothers Harriman.  It's headlined "Huge Moves Coming in Gold, Silver, U.S. read more

Charteris: Silver to rise 500%, gold to hit $2,500 in 2015 Posted: 09 Nov 2012 02:58 AM PST Charteris: Silver to rise 500%, gold to hit $2,500 in 2015 Rob Langston silver_surfer.jpg Charteris Treasury Portfolio Managers chairman and chief executive Ian Williams has predicted the price of silver will rise by 500 per cent in three years, while gold is set to increase to $2,500. Williams says silver prices are set to embark on "a sustained bull market" that will see prices rocket from $32/oz to $165/oz by the end of October 2015. He says: "This forecast is based entirely using technical & cyclical analysis and is in keeping with the mathematical form displayed so far in the bull run that has taken silver from $8 an ounce in 2008 to its current price of $32 an ounce - having hit $50 an ounce in 2011. "Silver is much more volatile than gold, witness the 50 per cent rise in price between June & October this year- a mere 95 days - and we expect silver to continue to dramatically outperform gold as the bull market in precious metals is by no means over. "Our forecast for gold is for a rise to $2,500 but that is small beer to what we expect to see in silver." Williams says he has been switching the emphasis in the Way Charteris Gold fund - the fund he manages alongside Nick Taylor - away from pure gold mining stocks towards gold companies that have a much higher involvement with silver. He has also increased his exposure to Fresnillo in the Elite Charteris Premium Income fund, making it the largest holding in the portfolio. In the most recent factsheet available on FE Trustnet, Fresnillo represented a 3.9 per cent holding in the fund. "If our view is correct the increased weighting of silver within our gold/precious metal fund relative to the other gold funds in the sector should result in a significant outperformance over the other gold funds," he adds. Rob joined Fundweb in 2011 as associate editor before being appointed deputy head of investment news in 2012. He is a former winner of the Headlinemoney trade journalist of the year award and has worked at a number of financial titles since beginning his career in 2007. www.fundweb.co.uk http://silverbearcafe.com/private/11...vertorise.html Attached Images silver_surfer.jpg (31.2 KB)

Links 11/9/12 Posted: 09 Nov 2012 02:47 AM PST San Francisco, Bay Area and Sacramento Valley – Sea Level Rise Map Gealogy (Lance N). Right after 9/11, there was Nuke-o-Meter. Mouse to a location, chose your weapon, and you could see the impact and fallout maps. Now you can see what gets submerged with various sea level rises. Climate threat to coffee crops BBC Danish turbine maker hit by ill winds Financial Times (furzy mouse) Our dangerous illusion of tech progress Garry Kasparov and Peter Thiel, Financial Times Bluffer's guide to China's regime change FTAlphaville Almost 40pc of payday loans used to buy food Telegraph Draghi runs out of options MacroBusiness Missing the Bigger Picture in Greece Tim Duy Who will stop the Sado-Monetarists as jobless youth hits 58pc in Greece? Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, Telegraph Syria crisis getting 'rapidly worse' Guardian CNN claims Iran shot at a US drone, revealing the news network's mindset Glenn Greenwald. Just saw the same story at the WSJ, and my first reaction was that it claimed the incident took place 16 miles off the Iranian coast, but even so, never said clearly that this was international airspace (as in was there an island off the coast that would have made this less than clear cut?) Wikileaks soldier in plea offer BBC More post election coverage: Romney 'transition' website briefly appears online Yahoo Vote was astronomical for Obama in some Philadelphia wards Philly.com (Paul Tioxon) Simpson-Bowles 'Grand Bargain' Candidates Lose on Tuesday AFL-CIO. Hhm, the rumor is that Bowles will be Treasury secretary, so tell me again who lost? Montana Voters Deprive Corporations Of Their Humanity Gawker The Importance of Elizabeth Warren Simon Johnson. The test will come when Obama's Treasury aligns with banks, which is guaranteed unless a dark horse candidate gets the nod. Will Warren buck the President and the party apparatus? The View from the Cocoon of Denial and Epistemic Closure Spectator (Lambert). Great piece, despite the title Catfood Watch: Brady joins in city rally against federal budget cuts Philly.com (Paul Tioxon) Let's Not Make a Deal Paul Krugman, New York Times. Good to see Krugman pointing out the obvious, that going over the "cliff" is not going to turn any lights off, and so Obama is not subject to a year end deadline, and gains from ignoring it (well, depending on which interests he really intends to serve…). But you'd never get that listening to the media, or for that matter, his operatives, who still seem to be gunning for a lame duck session deal. The coming debt battle James Galbraith, Salon Boehner Opens Grand Bargain Negotiations by Proposing the Romney Plan David Dayen, Firedoglake New York rations gasoline as electric outages mount AFP Battle Plan Shifts on Dodd-Frank Wall Street Journal (Joe Costello) Videogame sales collapse ahead of holidays Market Watch. Economic harbinger or merely all things Apple sucking sales out of other tech? Former Goldman trader accused of fraud Financial Times Antidote du jour (furzy mouse): And a bonus (HuffPo Hill):

The Madness of Markets – US Treasuries vs. Gold Posted: 09 Nov 2012 01:47 AM PST Grant Williams of Vulpes Investment Management in Singapore follows a classic text in an excellent presentation on past financial bubbles and the characteristic behavior they follow. He then applies this analysis to two current markets: US Treasuries and gold.

When Infinite Inflation Isn't Enough Posted: 09 Nov 2012 12:27 AM PST For investors looking to find a safe haven for their money, QE3 Plus is a strong signal that the price of gold and silver are a long way from their peaks. Gold hit an eleven-month high at the beginning of October after the announcement of QE3.

Links for 2012-11-08 [del.icio.us] Posted: 09 Nov 2012 12:00 AM PST Hurricane Sandy - Worse Than Katrina? | Gerald Celente Trends Blog Hurricane Sandy - Worse Than Katrina? 2013 The Year The Dollar Dies ~ RIP 1913-2013 | Gerald Celente Trends Blog 2013 The Year The Dollar Dies ~ RIP 1913-2013 Post-Election Sell Off : It’s All About Obama Says Peter Schiff Post-Election Sell Off : It’s All About Obama Says Peter Schiff Jim Rogers: The Gold Market will make its top in five-six-eight years | GOLD and SILVER MARKET Jim Rogers: The Gold Market will make its top in five-six-eight years Obama 2.0: What it Means for America, the Markets, the Dollar, and Gold Obama 2.0: What it Means for America, the Markets, the Dollar, and Gold Syrian President Assad : I will die before leaving Syria | Gerald Celente Trends Blog Syrian President Assad : I will die before leaving Syria What will another 4 years of Obama Bring to America? | Gerald Celente Trends Blog What will another 4 years of Obama Bring to America? If Iran Was Doing To The U.S. What Our Government IS Doing To Them, How Would YOU Feel? | Gerald Celente Trends Blog If Iran Was Doing To The U.S. What Our Government IS Doing To Them, How Would YOU Feel?

US Dollar Technical Update...So Far, So Good Posted: 08 Nov 2012 11:52 PM PST

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