Gold World News Flash |
- Gold Seeker Weekly Wrap-Up: Gold and Silver Gain About 2% and 6% on the Week
- CDNX Outperforms HUI in November (Chart)
- Gold in Yen Terms (Chart)
- By the Numbers for the Week Ending November 23
- The Gold Price Rose $37.10 this Week Closing at $1,751.40 Silver Up at $34.12
- Black Friday Blues? 40 Ideas for the Prepper Gift Giver
- Even if You Hate Gold, You Should Buy It
- Guest Post: Be Careful Jumping On Bernanke's Bandwagon
- Gold Clears Chart Resistance in Light Volume Holiday Trade
- Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts
- Germany's Gold and Your Silver
- The Golden Nugget That Makes Traders Wealthy Trading AAPL, RIMM And Gold Stocks
- Reassessing the global financial status quo part 2
- Be a Risk Manager, Not a Reward Chaser
- Richard Russell – Attempts To Defeat Deflation As Money Dies
- Bond bubble attracting more media attention
- More Filings From Large & Influential Investors Buying Gold
- Clamor about gold reserves prompts leasing disclosure by Austrian central bank
- Turkey confirms that gold exports are linked to purchase of Iranian gas
- Rick Rule: Be a Risk Manager, Not a Reward Chaser
- The Daily Market Report
- About Those Retail Investor Fund Flows
- Bill Whittle - Our Side Needs to Believe in Our Side
- Gold Sharply Higher in Yen terms and Euro Terms
- Gold and Real Interest Rates
- Dow 13,000 Regained On Lightest Volume Day Of The Year
- Giving Thanks for Gold
- Gold and Silver Blitzsilberkrieg Next Week
- Real Rates and Gold 11
- "Exciting Week" Ahead for Gold as Silver as US Prepares $99Bn Bond Sale
| Gold Seeker Weekly Wrap-Up: Gold and Silver Gain About 2% and 6% on the Week Posted: 23 Nov 2012 10:00 PM PST Gold saw only modest gains in Asia and London, but it then accelerated higher in midmorning New York trade and ended near its early afternoon high of $1754.10 with a gain of 1.26%. Silver surged to as high as $34.16 and ended with a gain of 2.19%.
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| CDNX Outperforms HUI in November (Chart) Posted: 23 Nov 2012 09:31 PM PST The chart below measures the relative performance of the Canadian Venture Exchange Index (CDNX) to the AMEX Gold Bugs Index (HUI). It may be a little difficult to see at first glance, but this ratio looks to be moving higher in November after very nearly matching the all time low in October. CDNX compared to the HUI, monthly, since 2003. Our experience is that when the smaller, less liquid and more speculative junior miners and explorers are outperforming their larger cousins, that is a more bullish than bearish signal by itself. Our view is that the issuers we euphamistically refer to as "The Little Guys" have been pretty beaten up in 2011-2012 in what we are calling "The Second Worst Junior Bear Market From Hell." It is currently a bargain target rich environment, with smaller miners and explorers overdue for a recovery of both confidence and relative strength. Tax loss selling is a headwind, but The Little Guys have indeed outperformed the HUI so far in November nonetheless.
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| Posted: 23 Nov 2012 08:26 PM PST Gold in terms of Yen is breaking out of a long period consolidation as shown in the graph just below. Consensus seems to be that new elections ahead could add even more political pressure on the Bank of Japan to take steps to further materially weaken the Japanese fiat currency. When the ratio above is rising gold is gaining purchasing power relative to the yen index and vice versa. Below for reference is a chart of the JPY daily, courtesy of Finviz.com. For comparison, see the USD Weekly chart below for the same time period.
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| By the Numbers for the Week Ending November 23 Posted: 23 Nov 2012 08:05 PM PST This week's closing table is just below. Due to the Thanksgiving holiday in the U.S. CFTC commitments of traders (COT) data is delayed until late afternoon Monday, November 26. Vultures, (Got Gold Report Subscribers) please note that updates to our linked technical charts, available only on the GGR subscriber pages, should be completed by the usual time on Sunday (by 18:00 ET).
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| The Gold Price Rose $37.10 this Week Closing at $1,751.40 Silver Up at $34.12 Posted: 23 Nov 2012 07:15 PM PST Gold Price Close Today : 1,751.40 Gold Price Close 16-Nov : 1,714.30 Change : 37.10 or 2.16% Silver Price Close Today : 34.12 Silver Price Close 16-Nov : 32.36 Change : 1.76 or 5.44% Gold Silver Ratio Today : 51.34 Gold Silver Ratio 16-Nov : 52.97 Change : -1.63 or -3.08% Franklin didn't publish commentary today, if he publishes later it will be posted here. Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought. - Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger The-MoneyChanger.com 1-888-218-9226 10:00am-5:00pm CST, Monday-Friday © 2012, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission. To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down. WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned: Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures. NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps. NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced. NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt. What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands. One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose. No, I don't. 
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| Black Friday Blues? 40 Ideas for the Prepper Gift Giver Posted: 23 Nov 2012 06:30 PM PST by Amanda Warren, Activist Post:
Congratulations – you had a great Thanksgiving! And you didn't cave to the pressure to freeze in the cold night, suspend empathy and stampede your fellow man, pregnant woman, child, old lady, disabled veteran, for overpriced made-in-China trinkets. Here are some gift ideas for your friends that will be there when the time is right and that your non-prepping friends and family won't spit on (mostly): Things that are storable, but do not take up too much space:
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| Even if You Hate Gold, You Should Buy It Posted: 23 Nov 2012 05:30 PM PST by Vedran Vuk, Casey Research:
In a way, the naysayers are right. Gold does not produce any cash flows, so that naturally makes it suspect. If someone were trying to sell me a stock that produces no cash flows and never will, I'd tell him where to stick that stock –and let me tell you it wouldn't be inside my brokerage account. However, any company faces this same problem with its products. Take Apple, for example. Does Apple produce cash flows and dividends?
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| Guest Post: Be Careful Jumping On Bernanke's Bandwagon Posted: 23 Nov 2012 04:45 PM PST Via Lance Roberts of StreetTalk Live, This past Tuesday all eyes were on Bernanke as he gave his speech at the Economic Club in New York. Initially the markets sold off as no mention of further easing programs were mentioned but rebounded on his closing remarks. Out of the entire speech the media, and the markets, grabbed onto Bernanke's optimism about economic growth in 2013 as shown below.
It is true that the current economic condition, as weak as it has been, has done better than previous economies in history that experienced a financial crisis. As Mr. Weisenthal recently pointed out:
However, while the U.S. economy has recovered somewhat from the recessionary lows, and did not fall into a technical "depression," it is important to remember the vast amount of monetary stimulus thrown at it since 2008. The table below shows most of the various bailout and financial support programs that have been instituted to bolster the financial markets, and subsequently the economy, since 2008. This, of course, doesn't include the latest Large Scale Asset Purchase programs (QE3) which is currently injecting $40 billion a month of liquidity into the system.
The point here is that it took injecting nearly half of the worlds current GDP into the financial system to offset the drag of the financial crisis, modestly boost employment and keep economic growth only slightly above flat line. Nonetheless, Mr. Bernanke's optimism going into 2013 was welcome news - as long as you don't think about it too much. Of course, the question that was not asked, but should have been, is "exactly what do you mean by a good year?" That question is rather subjective. Is it 4% economic growth as hoped for by the George W. Bush Presidential Center? Or is it simply something better than the current 1.7% run rate for 2012? The chart below shows the annual real (inflation adjusted) growth of the economy by decade going back to 1950.
As you can see, since 1950, the average annual growth rate of the economy has been roughly 3.1%. As I have explained before, when it took less than $1 of debt to create $1 of economic growth the economy grew above the long term average. However, as that debt/economic growth ratio increased, currently more than $5 of debt, the average growth rate per decade fell. With debt levels continuing to spiral higher, which acts as a governor on economic growth due to the debt service requirement, the question of a return of economic growth becomes much more cloudy. The problem for Bernanke comes down to his inability to provide realistic economic forecasts. The Fed began making long range economic forecasts in 2011 which are published quarterly. As I wrote in the article "The Fed And Goldilocks Economic Forecasting" when it comes to the Fed and their economic forecasts they have consistently overstated economic strength. The chart, and table, below shows the Fed's economic forecasts and the eventual adjustments to reality.
Bernanke is once again pushing out very optimistic projections for 2013. He is also well aware that these numbers will be revised down in future quarters. Take a look at the table above. In January of 2011 the Fed was forecasting economic growth for 2011 at 3.7% which turned out to be 1.7%. The 2012 prediction of near 4% growth is currently at 1.8% and the 2013 prediction has already been revised from 4% to just 2.9%. If the economy hits 2.9% growth next year that would indeed be a "very good year" for the economy coming off the current state of growth. However, with economic growth currently in a declining trend, earnings deteriorating as the Eurozone slips back into recession, and employment and wages likely to be negatively impacted - that optimistic forecast will be revised lower. Furthermore, the raft of bailout and stimulus programs, enacted during the first two years of the current Administration, are now fading out of the system. The lack of further stimulative support, combined with rising taxes in 2013, will impede economic growth further.
The problem for the Federal Reserve is that they face a severe challenge, when communicating to financial markets and media, which is the creation of a self-fulfilling prophecy. Imagine that following an FOMC meeting Bernanke stated: "The policies and actions that we have implemented to date have done little to curb economic weakness. The economy is in much worse shape that we have previously communicated as the transmission system of Fed policy through the economy, and the financial markets, is obviously broken." The immediate reaction to such a statement would be a complete meltdown of the financial markets. Such a decline in the financial markets would negatively impact consumer confidence which would subsequently throw the economy into a recession. Therefore, communication from the Federal Reserve must be very guided in its approach - not too hot or cold. This "goldilocks" approach works to create a "glide path" to the Fed's destination while giving the financial markets and economy time to adjust to the incremental adjustments to forecasts. Therefore, when the media reporters grab onto a sound byte that the "next year is going to very good" it should be taken within the context of the trend of the economic data and what is driving it. The Fed has been slowly guiding economic forecasts lower since 2011. The reality is that the long range forecast of 2.6% economic growth is not a boon of economic prosperity, corporate profitability, increasing incomes or a secular bull market. It is also not the "death of America" or the return to the stone age. What is important to understand, as investors, is the impact on investment portfolios, expected real rates of returns and the realization that higher levels of market volatility, with more frequent "booms and busts," are here to stay.
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| Gold Clears Chart Resistance in Light Volume Holiday Trade Posted: 23 Nov 2012 04:40 PM PST by Dan Norcini:
Gold has breached overhead chart resistance centered near the $1740 level in extremely light holiday trade. One thing to keep in mind about this is that pit locals are notorious for using these ultra thin trading conditions to go hunting for upside or downside stops. Since there is not the depth of liquidity that is normally present in the market, resistance to their hunting party efforts is minimal. What this means for chart watchers is that one has to take the price movements with a bit of healthy skepticism. If the move is for real, it will hold on the resumption of trade during the next trading period. In our example – gold will need to remain above its breakout level of $1740 during both Sunday evening trade in Asia and during Monday trade here in the US. The same goes for silver. Read More @ TraderDanNorcini.Blogspot.com
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| Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts Posted: 23 Nov 2012 04:33 PM PST |
| Germany's Gold and Your Silver Posted: 23 Nov 2012 04:20 PM PST by Dr. Jeff Lewis, Gold Seek:
The controversy arose after the Bundesbank's official requests for a full audit of German gold reserves were apparently been turned down by the foreign central banks responsible for storing the bulk of German gold. These central banks include the Federal Reserve Bank (1,536 tonnes), the Bank of England (450 tonnes) and the Banque de France (374 tonnes). The Bundesbank keeps just 1,036 tonnes of the county's gold reserves in Frankfurt.
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| The Golden Nugget That Makes Traders Wealthy Trading AAPL, RIMM And Gold Stocks Posted: 23 Nov 2012 04:18 PM PST I know most Apple enthusiasts will be rolling their eyes with my analysis and that's fine because the rest of us need people to buy our shares as we unload long positions or sell Apple short. Read More...
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| Reassessing the global financial status quo part 2 Posted: 23 Nov 2012 04:00 PM PST In the second part of this series, Julian Phillips looks at some of the possible events that could help the developed world weather the blows of a changing economic environment. by Julian Phillips, MineWeb.com
Oil Self-Sufficiency in the U.S. The first point of hope pointing that way came from the news that the U.S. is headed to becoming the world's largest oil producer in the world, even ahead of Saudi Arabia. Through the use of a system of "Fracking" (the pumping of water into oil wells to extract remaining reserves) the U.S. will become not only self-sufficient in oil by 2016 but could become a net exporter after 2020. It current dependence for 20% of its oil needs from imported oil will disappear. The consequential impact on the U.S. Balance of Payments will be dynamic. Strategically and politically the U.S. will look considerably more robust. It remains to be seen whether it will save the dollar or its buying power but it will give resiliency to the U.S. economy it sorely needs now.
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| Be a Risk Manager, Not a Reward Chaser Posted: 23 Nov 2012 03:42 PM PST The Gold Report met up with Rick Rule, founder and chairman of Sprott Global Resource Investments Ltd, at the Hard Assets Conference in San Francisco. In this interview with The Gold Report, he shares his belief in the power of gold as both "catastrophe insurance" and an investment vehicle. As to equities, he sees a new discovery cycle lifting the prospects of majors and juniors alike, as long as they act like "rational" businesses.
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| Richard Russell – Attempts To Defeat Deflation As Money Dies Posted: 23 Nov 2012 03:20 PM PST from KingWorldNews:
With gold and silver surging, the Godfather of newsletter writers, Richard Russell, warns about attempts to defeat deflation as money dies. Here are Russell's thoughts, along with some charts, in a note to subscribers: "Help, I'm alone. Where are my fellow newsletter writers: Stan Weinstein, Garfield Drew, Sir Harry Schultz, Marty Zweig, Chuck Almon, Bob Farrell? They all flew the coop while poor old Richard Russell is still carrying on. Maybe it's because the stock market has become impossible or irrational. I think at any given time, the stock market seems increasingly difficult to figure out." Richard Russell continues @ KingWorldNews.com
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| Bond bubble attracting more media attention Posted: 23 Nov 2012 03:00 PM PST from Gold Money:
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| More Filings From Large & Influential Investors Buying Gold Posted: 23 Nov 2012 02:41 PM PST  Today one of the wealthiest men in the resource space said that in the very near future we should expect more filings from large and influential investors buying gold. Here is what Rule had to say: "We just had reports that both Paulson and Soros have been adding to their gold positions, which now total roughly $4 billion. It doesn't surprise me that they are adding to positions. My suspicion is that in the coming months we are going to see more reports of large and influential investors doing the same thing."
This posting includes an audio/video/photo media file: Download Now |
| Clamor about gold reserves prompts leasing disclosure by Austrian central bank Posted: 23 Nov 2012 02:32 PM PST Gata
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| Turkey confirms that gold exports are linked to purchase of Iranian gas Posted: 23 Nov 2012 12:55 PM PST By Emre Peker and Joe Parkinson http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000142412788732435200457813697360219877... ISTANBUL -- Turkey on Friday acknowledged that a surge in its gold exports this year is related to payments for imports of Iranian natural gas, shedding light on Ankara's role in breaching U.S.-led sanctions against Tehran. The continuing trade deal offers the most striking example of how Iran is using creative ways to sidestep Western sanctions over its disputed nuclear program, which have largely frozen it out of the global banking system. The disclosure was made by Turkey's deputy prime minister and top economic policy maker, Ali Babacan, in answers to questions from the parliamentary budget committee. Iran provides 18% of Turkey's natural gas and 51% of its oil. But since U.S. and European Union sanctions ban Tehran from receiving payments in dollars or euros, Ankara pays Iran for the gas in Turkish liras. The lira is of limited value for buying goods on international markets but ideal for purchasing Turkish gold. The government hasn't specified how it pays for Iranian oil. ... Dispatch continues below ... ADVERTISEMENT Opinion Around the World Is Changing When Deutschebank calls gold "good money" and paper "bad money". ... http://www.gata.org/node/11765 When the president of the German central bank, the Bundesbank, pays tribute to gold as "a timeless classic". ... http://www.forbes.com/sites/ralphbenko/2012/09/24/signs-of-the-gold-stan... When a leading member of the policy committee of the People's Bank of China calls the gold standard "an excellent monetary system". ... http://www.forbes.com/sites/ralphbenko/2012/10/01/signs-of-the-gold-stan... When a CNN reporter writes in The China Post that the "gold commission" plank in the 2012 Republican platform will "reverberate around the world". ... http://www.thegoldstandardnow.org/key-blogs/1563-china-post-the-gop-gold... When the Subcommittee on Domestic Monetary Policy of the U.S. House of Representatives twice called on economist, historian, and gold standard advocate Lewis E. Lehrman to testify. ... World opinion is changing in favor of gold. How can you learn why and what it will mean to you? Read the newly updated and expanded edition of Lehrman's book, "The True Gold Standard." Financial journalist James Grant says of "The True Gold Standard": "If you have ever wondered how the world can get from here to there -- from the chaos of depreciating paper to a convertible currency worthy of our children and our grandchildren -- wonder no more. The answer, brilliantly expounded, is between these covers. America has long needed a modern Alexander Hamilton. In Lewis E. Lehrman she has finally found him." To buy a copy of "The True Gold Standard," please visit: http://www.thegoldstandardnow.com/publications/the-true-gold-standard "In essence, gold exports" to Iran "end up like payments for our natural gas purchases," Mr. Babacan said. "Turkey is depositing the payment for the gas we purchase from Iran to Iran's account in Turkey. ... I don't know exactly how they then transfer it," he said. The identity of the final destination of the gold in Iran isn't known, but the scale of the operation and its dramatic expansion suggest that the Iranian government plays a key role, analysts say. In Turkey, state-run lender Turkiye Halk Bankasi has been responsible for processing the payments, since the U.S. adopted a measure in January to stop dealing with financial institutions working with Iran's central bank, freezing out private Turkish banks from facilitating payments. Halkbank raised 4.5 billion liras ($2.5 billion) Monday in Turkey's biggest offering in a secondary share sale -- a 20.8% stake, according to a statement to the Istanbul Stock Exchange. Mr. Babacan's remarks Friday helped clarify an aspect of Turkish trade policy that has been a source of speculation since unusually high exports to Iran first appeared in March, the month Iran was cut off from the Swift global payments network, effectively blocking the country from performing international financial transactions. Tehran has sought alternative means of payment for energy exports -- its main foreign currency earner and economic lifeblood -- including renminbi and rupees, as well as gold, in an attempt to skirt international sanctions and pay for its soaring food costs. Analysts cautioned that although the trade with Iran wasn't illegal, Ankara wanted to keep details out of the public eye for fear of raising the ire of Washington, which is leading the international campaign against Tehran for its alleged push to develop nuclear weapons. Iran says its program is for peaceful purposes including medical treatments. Turkey sold $6.4 billion of gold to Iran in the first nine months of this year, up from just $54 million in 2011, according to official data, tripling Ankara's exports to its eastern neighbor and almost evening the trade balance that historically has been dramatically in Tehran's favor. Iran accounts for 60% of Turkey's gold exports this year, followed by the United Arab Emirates with 30% of the total. Those transactions also helped cut a gaping Turkish current-account deficit to 7% of gross domestic product in September from an unsustainable 10% at the end of last year and improved Turkey's short-term external financing needs -- a key development that this month that enabled Ankara to secure its first investment-grade credit rating in almost two decades. The glittering bilateral gold trade has supplemented a strong trading relationship. Despite tightening sanctions, Turkey's total trade with Iran rose 50% to a record $16 billion in 2011. The countries have already surpassed that peak with $18.8 billion in almost evenly split exports and imports in the first nine months of this year. Although Turkish gold sales to Iran spiked parallel to U.S. and European Union sanctions, August and September saw bullion exports shrink amid a jump in sales to the United Arab Emirates, leading to speculation that the gold is now traveling to Iran through the UAE. "Historically, Turkey is a gold importer due to demand from the jewelry industry, albeit it seems that current gold exports are related to demand from the UAE and on to Iran. There has been concern that these sales somewhat reflect illicit trade with Iran," said Tim Ash, head of emerging markets research at Standard Bank PLC in London. Traders in Istanbul's famed Grand Bazaar, which still plays host to a significant percentage of Turkey's gold trade, have speculated for months that Iran's government had been behind the bullion buying spree, since there was no discernible increase in the amount being purchased by traditional Iranian customers or tourists. The government has denied direct links between the role of rising gold sales in buying energy, with Energy Minister Taner Yildiz saying in July that Turkish importers were paying for gas and oil in dollars and liras as per their purchasing agreements. "This is a statement of what until now has seemed obvious, but was officially kept under wraps," said Robert O'Daly, a Turkey analyst at Economist Intelligence Unit in London. "As long as Turkey is importing gas from Iran, the gold exports will continue to be substantial." While ties between Tehran and Ankara have become increasingly complicated in the past two years, as the Arab uprisings have polarized foreign policy aims, the neighbors have enough mutual interest to maintain a healthy trading relationship. The countries split most recently over the Syrian conflict, where Iran supports President Bashar al-Assad while Turkey backs rebels seeking to oust the regime in Damascus. Join GATA here: Vancouver Resource Investment Conference * * * Support GATA by purchasing DVDs of our London conference in August 2011 or our Dawson City conference in August 2006: http://www.goldrush21.com/order.html Or by purchasing a colorful GATA T-shirt: Or a colorful poster of GATA's full-page ad in The Wall Street Journal on January 31, 2009: http://gata.org/node/wallstreetjournal Help keep GATA going GATA is a civil rights and educational organization based in the United States and tax-exempt under the U.S. Internal Revenue Code. Its e-mail dispatches are free, and you can subscribe at: To contribute to GATA, please visit: ADVERTISEMENT Fred Goldstein and Tim Murphy open All Pro Gold Longtime GATA supporters Fred Goldstein and Tim Murphy have brought their many years of experience in the precious metals and numismatic coins to All Pro Gold as metals brokers who specialize in the delivery of gold and silver bullion bars and coins as well as numismatic gold and silver coins. 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| Rick Rule: Be a Risk Manager, Not a Reward Chaser Posted: 23 Nov 2012 12:20 PM PST The Gold Report: Rick, you believe the natural resources sector is experiencing a cyclical decline in a secular bull market similar to the 1970s. Is that true for other sectors as well? Rick Rule: I learned the hard way not to assume that my success in the natural resource business was transferable to other sectors, so I am going to stick with resources. However, there are parallels with the gold market. In the 1970s, we had a spectacular resource market, in particular for gold. Its price soared from $35/ounce (oz) to $850/oz. By 1975, in the middle of that secular bull market, gold had fallen to $100/oz. Those who sold at the bottom missed an 800% move in six years. [INDENT]"I own gold the way that I own life, auto or homeowner insurance. I regard it as catastrophe insurance."[/INDENT]It is important to understand that in cyclical markets like resources, declines in secular markets are to be expected. From my point of view, you need to understand cyclical declines for what they are...
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| Posted: 23 Nov 2012 11:35 AM PST Gold jumps to new 6-week highs
While efforts to reach a deal on Greece earlier in the week were unsuccessful, hopes spring eternal, and optimism is running high once again for an agreement by Monday. Better than expected November German Ifo sentiment also buoyed the single currency. Debate over the fiscal cliff will continue after the holiday, and hopes remain high for some kind of resolution. Additionally, the fragile Israel/Hamas cease fire is holding in Gaza, further contributing to the risk-on environment.
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| About Those Retail Investor Fund Flows Posted: 23 Nov 2012 11:35 AM PST While the developed world's central banks may enjoy trading FX and stocks, either directly or indirectly, with each other in a demonstration of monetary policy "stability", the historically biggest source of capital inflows into stocks - the retail investor - has once again just said "nein", for the 17th consecutive week, and excluding tiny inflows of $95 million in the week of July 18 and $907 million in the week ended May 30, has pulled money from stocks for an unprecedented 39 consecutive weeks, with $6.6 billion pulled out in the last week, the most since the first week of October. In fact going back to the beginning of 2010, according to ICI, while $44.5 billion has been invested into domestic equity stock funds, $412 billion has been pulled out. Where has the money gone on an almost dollar for dollar basis: bonds, confirming that the New Normal mantra is all about return of capital.
And no, it was not always like this.
So while banks are using the record cash deposited with them (as we reported several days ago), as well as the tens of billions in excess reserve capital inflow each month from the Fed to ramp stocks higher, the US investors no longer cares about promises by TV talking heads to "shift money out of bonds and into stocks now, because it is a once in a lifetime opportunity to do so", or that money in the bank is worthless under ZIRP so buy 300x P/E money losing retailers, or that the DJIA can go to 36,000. The US investor is simply done with the stock market.
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| Bill Whittle - Our Side Needs to Believe in Our Side Posted: 23 Nov 2012 11:28 AM PST Bill Whittle's address to the David Horowitz Restoration Weekend 2012 at the Breakers, Palm Beach, Florida. November 15th - 18th. Worthy of sharing widely and often.
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| Gold Sharply Higher in Yen terms and Euro Terms Posted: 23 Nov 2012 11:25 AM PST [url]http://www.traderdannorcini.blogspot.com/[/url] [url]http://www.fortwealth.com/[/url] Remember that recent call by the Japanese for more yen printing by the Bank of Japan? Obviously this was not lost on the gold market. Can anyone say "Deliberate Currency Debauchment"? If that is not enough, the Europeans, not wishing to be outdone by the Japanese in the sense of who can debase their currency the fastest, continue to drone out about coming to the aid of Greece. Their remedy - print more money. I have a bit of counsel to the political and monetary authorities. Why not just cease and desist ALL TAXATION OF YOUR CITIZENS COMPLETELY. You obviously can conjure into existence, out of nothing, all the money that you need. Why bother taxing anyone? Just print what you need and end the illusion of possessing any sort of discipline or ethics altogether. At least that way your middle class will have something of their's left over before you bastards destroy what is left of their purchas...
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| Posted: 23 Nov 2012 11:24 AM PST Early in gold’s secular bull, contrarian investors looked to real interest rates as one of this metal’s primary drivers. Eleven years ago when gold still languished under $300, mainstreamers scoffed at the notion that there would ever be sizable gold investment demand. But then, as now, negative real rates create strong incentives for bond investors to deploy significant fractions of their portfolios in this unique asset.
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| Dow 13,000 Regained On Lightest Volume Day Of The Year Posted: 23 Nov 2012 11:21 AM PST Hope for a Greek deal (which solves what exactly?) and a better than expected German IFO are the excuses for today's circa 1% spurt in stocks capping a 5-percent-plus jump off Friday's over-short lows. The best 5-day run in four months for the S&P 500 occurred with the lowest average weekly volume of the year - and as we noted earlier, amid one of the biggest short-squeezes we have seen. Correlations across asset classes rose significantly but it seemed EURUSD (and Gold) was as responsible as anything for today's magical carpet ride - especially the little dose of magic into the close. Treasuries trod water - completely ignoring equity's excitement. Silver and Gold popped notably (playing catch up to USD and stocks), as did Oil, with the USD sliding (-1.25%) non-stop on EUR strength (+1.85% on the week!). Have no fear, retirement is back on - Dow 13,000 is back with us... (but it appears, for now, the squeeze-ability is over)
Low volume, check! Rampapalooza, check! Technical Level to pin it on, check! And in case you were wondering - unlike Weds/Thurs trade size - today's average trade size was considerably larger (with some significant blocks going through into the close - pros fading the surge once again?)
Today was 'correlation' day...
... Gold snapped up to USD/Stocks weekly move and clung to them for the rest of the day... Gold still small winner YTD over stocks... Treasuries did not partake this time...
S&P 500 futures have retraced to pre-election levels...amid dismal volume (lower pane)
Commodities were in a frenzy once stocks opened...
Charts: Bloomberg and Capital Context Bonus Chart - as a reminder - here is why the short-squeeze ammo is run out for now...
Bonus Bonus Chart: AAPL will be tested on Monday - we surge up 1.75% today with a huge push in the late day to regain that critical swing high and low around $571 (again with significant volume and block size). VWAP support still seems to be around $563 and we suspect (given volume patterns) that a close above $575 will signal a push higher, until then we are biased short.
and also on AAPL - on 2/12/2008, the 50DMA crossed below the 100DMA (with a downtrending 100DMA) and the stock lost over 10% in 2 weeks. Today - the same occurred... and average trade size was large today in AAPL (suggesting real money moving) just as it was at the peak-day...
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| Posted: 23 Nov 2012 11:19 AM PST Reasons to be cheerful despite the crisis ahead – starting with big savings on gold bullion...
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| Gold and Silver Blitzsilberkrieg Next Week Posted: 23 Nov 2012 11:12 AM PST As a reminder there are option expiration in gold and silver on the Comex next week on Tuesday the 27th. My friend Dave says he sees a bulge around 1800 in the gold option positions that could mark the heart of the resistance. This coincides with my own thinking.
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| Posted: 23 Nov 2012 11:06 AM PST Early in gold's secular bull, contrarian investors looked to real interest rates as one of this metal's primary drivers. Eleven years ago when gold still languished under $300, mainstreamers scoffed at the notion that there would ever be ... Read More...
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| "Exciting Week" Ahead for Gold as Silver as US Prepares $99Bn Bond Sale Posted: 23 Nov 2012 11:05 AM PST The DOLLAR PRICE of physical gold rose back to $1734 per ounce in London on Friday morning, nearing the top of the last 5 weeks' trading range as so-called "risk assets" also crept higher. Asian and European stock markets were slightly stronger, while the single Euro currency pushed back above $1.29.
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The blinds are down. The doors are bolted. You slept in. You still bask in the euphoria of a pleasant evening with friends, family, and grateful feasting. Maybe you even helped others.
There have been decades of debate in finance over gold – long before the recent, rapid rise in gold prices. Some see gold as a way to diversify into an asset with less direct correlation to the overall market. Others view gold as no more than a lump of yellow metal. It produces no cash flows. How can it be possibly worth anything?
In the first part of this article we looked at the sad events that appear unavoidable in 2013 and beyond, despite the best efforts of politicians and monetary officials. We then said events are on the way to bring nations in the developed world the ability to survive these blows.
December Comex gold futures gained 0.1% yesterday, as improved Chinese manufacturing data and hopeful noises from European politicians about the prospects of reaching an EU budget agreement helped traders' appetite for growth assets. Precious metals posted decent gains on Wednesday, following news that central banks in Russia, Kazakhstan, Turkey and Brazil boosted their gold reserves in October. As the following chart from Nick Laird of 
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