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Thursday, October 4, 2012

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Investing In Lead - The Definitive Guide

Posted: 04 Oct 2012 11:54 AM PDT

By CommodityHQ:

By Carolyn Pairitz

Lead is a heavy metal that has been used for thousands of years in a wide variety of applications, including building and construction. Lead deposits are abundant in many regions around the world, and the metal is relatively easy to extract from the ground. Because it is widely used in construction and other industrial applications, lead has some appeal to investors looking to bet on increased demand for raw materials. There are a number of different options for investing in lead, including exchange-traded futures contracts, stocks of companies engaged in the extraction and sale of the metal, and exchange-traded products.

Physical Properties And Uses Of Lead

Lead, which carries the symbol Pb, is a soft and malleable metal that has a gray color once exposed to air and silver color when melted into a liquid. In certain forms and quantities, lead can lead to blood disorders or


Complete Story »

Cheap Valuations Make These 2 Oil & Gas Stocks A Buy Now

Posted: 04 Oct 2012 11:45 AM PDT

By Stock Croc:

Investors should require extra discounts before investing in the equity of commodity companies. Essentially, there is nothing to prevent competitors from undercutting them. Investors should be rational and only invest if these stocks are trading attractively low valuations.

Current Trends in Oil

The price of crude oil recently dropped to below $90 per barrel. The decrease is part of an ongoing, multi-month downward trend in oil prices. Current weakness in oil prices has been blamed on the euro zone crisis as economies continue to struggle in Europe and may speculate that the Euro will weaken relative to the dollar more than it has over the past two years. However, some analysts believe that the steady descent in oil prices may simply be a part of crude oil's ultimate demand destruction, a consumer response to the persistent high price of gasoline.

Will supply decline as well? The reported sales of crude


Complete Story »

Gold Stocks To Play QE3

Posted: 04 Oct 2012 11:00 AM PDT

By CommodityHQ:

By Stephen D. Simpson

With QE3 now an announced fact, gold has come back into the spotlight. While the actual historical performance of gold as an inflation hedge is more mixed than some goldbugs realize, the reality is that gold has done pretty well during most prior periods of monetary stimulus. Moreover, with the ongoing uncertainty regarding the economic health and future of Europe, the United States, Japan and China, gold's demonstrated value as a hedge against uncertainty may also come into play.

Investors have a variety of ways to use gold to enhance or secure the performance of their portfolio. Here are several names to consider.

Get Physical

If investors want to own gold, without actually owning the ingots, rounds or coins themselves, consider one of the physical gold ETFs. The SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) is far and away the largest, with over $74 billion in assets (making it


Complete Story »

Earning Analysis: Family Dollar Stores Inc.

Posted: 04 Oct 2012 10:48 AM PDT

By AnalytixInsight:

Family Dollar Stores Inc. (FDO) reports preliminary financial results for the year ended 2012-08-31.

Family Dollar Stores Inc. recently reported its preliminary financial results based on which we provide a unique peer-based analysis of the company.

Family Dollar Stores Inc.'s analysis versus peers uses the following peer-set: Costco Wholesale Corp. (COST), Target Corp.(TGT), Dollar General Corp.(DG), Dollar Tree Inc.(DLTR), Big Lots Inc.(BIG) and Fred's Inc.(FRED). The table below shows the preliminary results along with the recent trend for revenues, net income and returns.

Annual (USD million) 2012-08-31 2011-08-31 2010-08-31 2009-08-31 2008-08-31
Revenues 9,331.0 8,547.8 7,867.0 7,400.6 6,983.6
Revenue Growth % 9.2 8.7 6.3 6.0 2.2
Net Income 422.2 388.4 358.1 291.3 233.1
Net Income Growth % 8.7 8.5 23.0 25.0 (4.0)
Net Margin % 4.5 4.5 4.6 3.9 3.3
ROE % 35.4 31.0 25.0 21.6 19.2
ROA % 13.3 13.0 12.3 10.6 8.8

Valuation Drivers

Family Dollar Stores Inc.'s current


Complete Story »

Technicals: Silver, Gold, & More

Posted: 04 Oct 2012 09:43 AM PDT

endlessmountain: Silver, Gold, Nasdaq 2012.10.04

from endlessmountain:

~TVR

WATCHING THE DOLLAR

Posted: 04 Oct 2012 09:24 AM PDT

It looks like it took till Thursday for the dollar to make up its mind. In my last post I was expecting a decisive move by Monday or Tuesday.

After two weeks of frustrating back-and-forth action it looks like the bear flag in the dollar is finally ready to break to the downside. This should deliver one more leg down to possibly test or marginally break below the February low before forming an intermediate bottom.



The next 2-3 weeks should be the best opportunity for gold to test $1900


Again I don't expect a breakout to new highs this year and once the test occurs it should fail and be followed by another intermediate degree decline as the dollar rallies out of its intermediate cycle bottom. The breakout to new highs should occur during the next intermediate cycle sometime in the spring.


This posting includes an audio/video/photo media file: Download Now

Confidence Game in Hard Assets

Posted: 04 Oct 2012 08:23 AM PDT

Did we tell you or did we tell you? It's a bit premature to claim bragging rights but the junior market has been trading exactly how we hoped it would. Ben Bernanke delivered the early Christmas presents gold bugs were dreaming of and the market tenor looks better.

All that glitters is gold

Posted: 04 Oct 2012 06:52 AM PDT

Aubie Baltin

WE ARE COILED to power through $35/$1800 today!

Posted: 04 Oct 2012 06:39 AM PDT

Last time I saw this narrow range being held over a week's period, it preceded a big upward move. Based on this consolidation coupled with the strong resistance at these levels I am looking at a 80% chance we plow through both levels; third time's a charm.;)

In the 20% column, I see a tripple-top here and a larger move down; but my money is on a push to $36.50/$1820 beginning today

In either case, we are coiled and I see the decision in the next 24 hours rather than next week.

I rarely make predictions but I'm feeling this one,
Groove

Gold Hits New High for the Year, Breaching $1,790

Posted: 04 Oct 2012 06:26 AM PDT

Spot market prices to buy gold climbed to $1,794 an ounce ahead of Thursday's US session, a new 2012 high, while stock markets were broadly flat and US Treasury bonds fell ahead of the publication of minutes from the latest Federal Reserve policy meeting.

Fed Policy Is Working — Moral Hazard Is Back

Posted: 04 Oct 2012 06:22 AM PDT

from dollarcollapse.com:

A near-death experience isn't something one gets over right away. So it's no surprise that the US leveraged speculating community was a tad more cautious than usual for a while. Real estate investors, for instance, still bought houses, but only on very favorable terms where rental income would clearly exceed expenses. And investment banks still repackaged loans into asset backed securities, but on a very small scale, since there weren't that many willing/able buyers for exotica that was "toxic" so recently.

This was completely unacceptable to Washington, of course, since the only way an over-indebted economy can "grow" is if speculators can be induced to take unwise risks. So this year we entered the whatever-it-takes phase of the process, where borrowed money became nearly free and permanent, open-ended quantitative easing was promised.

Keep on reading @ dollarcollapse.com

Massive Fear In Gold Means We May Not See A Correction

Posted: 04 Oct 2012 06:18 AM PDT

from kingworldnews.com:

Today 25 year veteran Caesar Bryan surprised King World News when he said that everyone is looking for a correction because of the increased commercial short position in gold, so we may not see one. Bryan, from Gabelli & Company, stated, "… because of the overwhelming fear of a correction here, it may not happen."

Here is what Caesar had to say: "I think all of the worry about the commercial short position in gold and silver is just short-term noise. To the extent that can help in somebody's trading activity that's fine, but it's not something I am concerned about in the long-run."

Keep on reading @ kingworldnews.com

Gold Wars Revisited

Posted: 04 Oct 2012 06:17 AM PDT

from goldmoney.com:

The following is an essay version of a speech given by Spanish trader and economist Felix Moreno de la Cova, at a recent event in Madrid to mark the publication of the Spanish version of Gold Wars by the late Ferdinand Lips. GoldMoney would like to thank the Asociación Española de Metales Preciosos and Barbara Lips of the Lips Institute for their work on this project.

The sadly departed Ferdinand Lips left us an astounding legacy with this jewel of a book. It sends a powerful message that our political and banking elite would do well to remember, and is even more relevant now in light of current events.

Lips was a private Swiss banker and a leading gold mining authority. He was also a keen historian and sound money advocate – as best illustrated in Gold Wars, first published a decade ago. His direct contact with men at the centre of the monetary system like John Connally and John Exter meant that he knew first hand what was going on as the war on gold's use as money progressed. His brave defence of Switzerland's sound (gold) money tradition against the huge pressure that was brought to bear on his country is testament to both his intellectual courage and patriotism.

Keep on reading @ goldmoney.com

China to Challenge US Dollar Reserve Currency Status

Posted: 04 Oct 2012 06:14 AM PDT

Gold inched up on Thursday, continuing its fourth day of gains as investors await more clues from central banks on further stimulus plans. Investors will watch the key the nonfarm payrolls figure on Friday to determine if QE3 is beginning to stimulate the US economy.

Crossing the Line in the Sand

Posted: 04 Oct 2012 06:12 AM PDT

from news.goldseek.com:

In 1949, in his classic treatise, Human Action, Ludwig von Mises, the noted Austrian economist wrote: All present-day governments are fanatically committed to an easy money policy. As has been mentioned already, the British Government has asserted that credit expansion has performed "the miracle…of turning a stone into bread."

The British government's belief that credit expansion can produce the economic equivalent of turning stone into bread is similar to heroin's amazing ability to turn pain into pleasure; and, while both may do so, the use of such miraculous powers is not without serious consequence.

The difficulty of addicts in curing their addictions is a function of the benefits of the addiction. Those beset by overwhelming emotional problems and/or pain find it difficult to face life without heroin after being addicted—a not too different experience from those addicted to credit's ephemeral gifts.

Keep on reading @ news.goldseek.com

Confidence Game

Posted: 04 Oct 2012 06:06 AM PDT

from news.goldseek.com:

Did we tell you or did we tell you? It's a bit premature to claim bragging rights but the Junior market has been trading exactly how we hoped it would. Ben Bernanke delivered the early Christmas presents gold bugs were dreaming of and the market tenor looks better than it has for a year.

The operative word is still "better", not "great". The increase in volume in the Juniors is gratifying but still not enough. It will take higher volumes still to keep a rally alive through to year end.

In keeping with that note of cautious optimism we are sticking with discovery stories that are already working and later stage stories that were under loved until the gold price took off. A number of these are trading impressively well. So far discoveries and undervalued developers/small producers represent most all of the positive volume. They are riding the wave but the tide has not come in for the rest of the companies in the sector.

Keep on reading @ news.goldseek.com

Heurts à Téhéran après la chute du rial

Posted: 04 Oct 2012 06:04 AM PDT

Des heurts ont éclaté à Téhéran mercredi entre la police anti-émeute et des centaines de manifestants qui protestaient contre la forte baisse du rial, la devise nationale, qui a perdu 40% de sa valeur en une semaine face au dollar...

Lire

Rick Rule – The Availability Of Physical Gold Will Disappear

Posted: 04 Oct 2012 06:00 AM PDT

from kingworldnews.com:

Today Rick Rule told King World News "At some point we will see the availability of physical gold disappear when we begin to see widespread public ownership like we witnessed in the 1970s." Rule, who is now part of Sprott Asset Management, also noted that "… gold will do well because the value of currencies will continue to erode."

Here is what Rule had to say: "It was a nice catch by Michael Pento the other day on KWN, and I suspect he's exactly right that we are looking at QE4. It seems to me that regardless of the excuse, the Fed will find ways to add liquidity into the system for a couple of reasons. First, they feel the desperate need to keep the system, at least a big part of the system, liquid, in order to avoid a 2008 style decline."

Keep on reading @ kingworldnews.com

The Goldfather & the Scrap Gold Business

Posted: 04 Oct 2012 05:53 AM PDT

Gold moved $10 higher ahead of the ECB rate announcement and it once again neared the Monday high. Silver added $30 cents and traded just above the $35 level. Market participants continue to target the $1,800 and $35.50 closing levels in the gold/silver duo.

Gold, $1,790.25 / Silver $35.01

Posted: 04 Oct 2012 04:52 AM PDT

YEAH BABY!!!!!!

Commodities Rise on US Data – Will ECB Snuff Rally?

Posted: 04 Oct 2012 04:32 AM PDT

Commodity prices are edging higher overnight as risk appetite firms across Asian bourses following a supportive set of US economic data. Sentiment-linked crude oil and copper prices followed shares higher while gold and silver found de-facto support.

Gold Hovers After Touching New Highs…

Posted: 04 Oct 2012 04:30 AM PDT

So, Who's Been Bidding Bullion Higher?

Posted: 04 Oct 2012 03:38 AM PDT

It's hard to find any gold bears amongst professional investors right now. Amongst self-directed retail investors too, sentiment towards gold is bullish. But hard transactional data from the world's largest pool says they're not as bullish as earlier in the year.

Eye on Equities: Gold Bears Head For the Hills

Posted: 04 Oct 2012 03:13 AM PDT

¤ Yesterday in Gold and Silver

Once again the movie "Groundhog Day" starring actor Bill Murray came to mind after watching Wednesday's gold [and silver] price action, which was the same as Tuesday's price action...and almost the same as Monday's.

Once again, gold made many numerous attempts to rally through the $1,780 sport price during the Comex trading session in New York...but was not allowed to venture too far above that mark before running into a willing seller.  The high tick of the day [$1,782.80 spot] came within ten minutes of the Comex open...and got squashed immediately.

Gold closed at $1,779.00 spot...up $4.60 on the day.  Volume was 132,000 contracts, a lot of which would have been of the HFT variety.

It was exactly the same story in silver...and watching "da boyz" close the Wednesday silver price inside the 3 cent price gap between Monday and Tuesday's closes, was just too cute for words.  Silver's high tick of $34.99 spot came at the same time as gold's high of the day...just minutes after the Comex open.

Then, shortly after 12 o'clock noon in New York, the silver price got sold down to around $34.60 spot...and then traded sideways into the close.

Silver closed at $34.64 spot...up a whole 2 cents on the day.  Volume was around 34,000 contracts.

The dollar index opened at 79.75 in early Far East trading on Wednesday...and immediately began to climb back towards the 80.00 level.  That rally died at 79.96 just minutes after the 8:00 a.m. BST London open...and by 10:00 a.m. BST had fallen all the way back to 79.72.

The subsequent rally off that low made it back to the same 79.96 level shortly before 9:00 a.m. in New York, before more or less trading sideways for the remainder of the day.  The dollar index closed at 79.89...up about 14 basis points from Thursday.

Despite the fact that the gold price spent most of the day in positive territory, the associated equities spent the entire trading day in the red, with prices getting weaker as the trading day progressed.  The HUI finished down 1.69%.

The silver stocks suffered the same fate...and Nick Laird's Silver Sentiment Index closed down 1.25%.

(Click on image to enlarge)

The CME Daily Delivery Report was another yawner, as only 2 gold and 11 silver contracts were posted for delivery on Friday.  According to the CME's preliminary volume report, there are only about 700 gold and a bit more than 300 silver contracts left to deliver in October...plus what may be added as the month progresses.  The bulk of the October deliveries in gold are already done...but most of the silver deliveries are yet to come.

An authorized participant added 58,161 troy ounces of gold to GLD yesterday...and there were no reported changes in SLV.

And, for the third day in a row, there was no sales report from the U.S. Mint.

The Comex-approved depositories reported adding 610,809 troy ounces of silver to their inventories on Tuesday...and shipped a smallish 25,990 ounces out the door.  The link to that activity is here.

It was another quiet day for stories...and for the second day in a row, I don't have that many.

How the current situation resolves itself...or is allowed to resolve itself...either up or down, remains to be seen.
Vietnam's gold market uncertain as gold deposit ban approaches. Bolivia's silver mountain on the verge of collapse. Rick Rule: The availability of gold will disappear. Caesar Bryan: Massive Fear in Gold Means We May Not See a Correction.

¤ Critical Reads

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Peter Schiff: The Fed Plays All Its Cards

There never really could be much doubt that the current experiment in competitive global currency debasement would end in anything less than a total war. There was always a chance that one or more of the principal players would snap out of it, change course and save their citizenry from a never ending cycle of devaluation. But developments since September 13, when the U.S. Federal Reserve finally laid all its cards on the table and went "all in" on permanent quantitative easing, indicate that the brainwashing is widely established and will be difficult to break. The vast majority of the world's leading central bankers seem content to walk in lock step down the path of money creation as a means to economic salvation. Never mind that the path will prevent real growth and may ultimately lead off a cliff. The herd is moving. And if it can't be turned, the only thing that one can do is attempt to get out of its way.

Peter's commentary was posted over at the europac.ca Internet site on Tuesday...and I thank Donald Sinclair for providing our first story of the day.  The link is here.

Huge tax increase looms at year-end 'fiscal cliff'

A typical middle-income family making $40,000 to $64,000 a year could see its taxes go up by $2,000 next year if lawmakers fail to renew a lengthy roster of tax cuts set to expire at the end of the year, according to a new report Monday

Taxpayers across the income spectrum would be hit with large tax hikes, the Tax Policy Center said in its study, with households in the top 1 percent income range seeing an average tax increase of more than $120,000, while a family making between $110,000 to $140,000 could see a tax hike in the $6,000 range.

Taxpayers across the income spectrum will get slammed with increases totaling more than $500 billion - a more than 20 percent increase - with nine out of 10 households being affected by the expiration of tax cuts enacted under both President Barack Obama and his predecessor, George W. Bush.

This AP story from Monday was one I pulled from yesterday's edition of the King Report.  The link is here.

California Gas Stations Begin to Shut on Record-High Spot Prices

Gasoline station owners in the Los Angeles area including Costco Wholesale Corp. are beginning to shut pumps because of supply shortages that have driven wholesale fuel prices to record highs.

Costco's outlet in Simi Valley, 40 miles (64 kilometers) northwest of Los Angeles, ran out of regular gasoline yesterday and was selling premium fuel at the price of regular, Jeff Cole, Costco's vice president of gasoline, said by telephone. The company hasn't been able to find enough unbranded summer-grade gasoline to keep its stations supplied, he said.

Spot, or wholesale, gasoline in Los Angeles has surged 70 cents this week to a premium of $1.15 a gallon versus gasoline futures traded on the New York Mercantile Exchange, data compiled by Bloomberg show. That's the highest level for the fuel since at least November 2007, when Bloomberg began publishing prices there. On an outright basis, the fuel jumped to $3.9495 a gallon.

Gasoline at the pump cost $4.232 a gallon in California on Oct. 2, according to AAA.com, 45 cents more than the national average of $3.782. In Los Angeles the price was $4.259.

This Bloomberg story was posted on their Internet site early yesterday evening...and my thanks go out to West Virginia reader Elliot Simon...and the link is here.

Kyle Bass: Too Much Debt, Here's What to Do

Kyle Bass, who famously made a fortune shorting the subprime market before the housing market collapse, is worried that there's too much debt in the world.

"We've never been here before," said Bass, founder of hedge fund Hayman Capital, in an interview Wednesday on CNBC'S "Squawk on the Street." "It has been the largest peacetime accumulation of debt in history."

With ongoing uncertainty about the global debt situation, the fund manager said his "goal is not to lose money."

Gold should also be owned, but Bass didn't have a specific answer as to how much of a portfolio it should make up.

This story, along with an embedded 8:52 video clip, was posted on the cnbc.com website during the east coast lunch hour yesterday...and I thank Elliot Simon for his second story in a row.  It's definitely worth reading/watching...and the link is here.

Iran in grip of currency crisis as trading stops

Iran is in the grip of economic meltdown, with trading in its currency halted after it dropped 40pc in a week.

After the rial on Tuesday hit a record low of around 37,500 to the dollar, from about 24,600 just eight days earlier, riot police in Tehran today ordered exchange bureau to close and arrested illegal money changers, witnesses said.

The state-backed news agency Mehr reported the rial had opened at a new low of 36,100, but currency websites said that to "comply" with central bank policies they would not provide price updates.

Shopkeepers refused to open as they did not know how to price their goods. Inflation is thought to be running far higher than the official 25pc rate.

This story was posted on the telegraph.co.uk Internet site yesterday afternoon BST...and I thank Roy Stephens for sending it. It's worth reading...and the link is here.

Iran crackdown on money changers after currency slide

A protest and scuffles with police occurred in central Tehran on Wednesday in the first sign of public unrest over Iran's plunging currency, which this week has lost more than half of its value.

Hundreds of police in anti-riot gear stormed the capital's currency exchange district of Ferdowsi, arresting illegal money changers and ordering licensed bureau and other shops closed, witnesses told AFP.

Several arrests were seen, carried out by uniformed police or plain-clothes security officers.

Individuals threw stones at police officers and a police car before running away, witnesses said.

This longish AFP story was picked up by the uk.finance.yahoo.com Internet site yesterday morning Eastern time...and I thank Scott Pluschau for bringing it to our attention.  It's worth your time if you have it...and the link is here.

Iranian smugglers squeezed out by currency in freefall

The fiber-glass skiffs hurtle across the water at break-neck speed, skirting the rocky cliffs on the last leg of the perilous journey from Iran to the sleepy backwaters of Oman's Musandam peninsula.

At the helm are Iran's fast-boat smugglers, an army of mostly teenagers who shuttle back and forth across the narrow Strait of Hormuz, smuggling all manner of goods into Iran's southern ports and evading import duties in the process.

Until recently the Iranian boats and their fearless young skippers escorted several cargoes a day - loaded with everything from soft drinks to mobile phones and cosmetics - bought in the flourishing trading centers of the United Arab Emirates and sold to merchants in Iran.

The proximity of Iran to the UAE and Oman and their historic trade and finance links have supported thriving trade, which in recent years has undermined the impact of economic sanctions imposed by the United States and its allies on Tehran - until now.

This very interesting Reuters story was filed from Khasab, Oman yesterday...and I thank Roy Stephens for digging it up on our behalf.  The link is here.

Three King World News Blogs

The first blog is with Richard Russell...and it's entitled "October Stock Plunge, Gold & the Fear Index".  Next is Caesar Bryan.  Hi blog is headlined "Massive Fear in Gold Means We May Not See a Correction".  And lastly is this blog with Rick Rule...and it bears the title "The Availability of Physical Gold Will Disappear".

Bolivia's silver mountain on the verge of collapse

The Spanish may not have found El Dorado, the city of gold, but they certainly hit the jackpot when they landed in the Bolivian city of Potosi, home to "Cerro Rico" or Rich Mountain, one of the largest silver deposit in recorded history.

But after 467 years of mining engineers are warning that the 15,800-foot monument to native slaves, who mined the mountain's silver in brutal conditions, is pitted throughout and in danger of a catastrophic collapse, as 60 miles of shafts that have left the mountain hollowed out like a chunk of Swiss cheese.

The cone-shaped peak that once bankrolled the Spanish empire currently hosts, according to an in-depth report from The Washington Post, as many as 16,000 miners at any given moment.

Hundreds of thousands have died over the years, as a direct result of cave-ins, overwork, hunger and disease.  Many more could be vanishing soon if Bolivia's government doesn't do something about the safety of the place, say experts.

This short mining.com story was posted on their website on Tuesday...and is well worth reading.  I thank Carl Lindfors for sharing it with us.  The link is

Iran in grip of currency crisis as trading stops

Posted: 04 Oct 2012 03:13 AM PDT

Iran is in the grip of economic meltdown, with trading in its currency halted after it dropped 40pc in a week.

After the rial on Tuesday hit a record low of around 37,500 to the dollar, from about 24,600 just eight days earlier, riot police in Tehran today ordered exchange bureau to close and arrested illegal money changers, witnesses said.

The state-backed news agency Mehr reported the rial had opened at a new low of 36,100, but currency websites said that to "comply" with central bank policies they would not provide price updates.

Shopkeepers refused to open as they did not know how to price their goods. Inflation is thought to be running far higher than the official 25pc rate.

read more

Kyle Bass: Too Much Debt, Here's What to Do

Posted: 04 Oct 2012 03:13 AM PDT

Kyle Bass, who famously made a fortune shorting the subprime market before the housing market collapse, is worried that there's too much debt in the world.

"We've never been here before," said Bass, founder of hedge fund Hayman Capital, in an interview Wednesday on CNBC'S "Squawk on the Street." "It has been the largest peacetime accumulation of debt in history."

With ongoing uncertainty about the global debt situation, the fund manager said his "goal is not to lose money."

Gold should also be owned, but Bass didn't have a specific answer as to how much of a portfolio it should make up.

read more

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