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Tuesday, October 2, 2012

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Schnapp – Employment Rising says Income Tax Receipts

Posted: 02 Oct 2012 11:15 AM PDT

But will it last?  See what Ms. Schnapp says about that in the video below.

 

Source: TrimTabs via YouTube


http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=0ibNQj_3xLc&list=UU_FouojmbzN_jwBVkroDQBw

Why You Should Dump Barrick Gold

Posted: 02 Oct 2012 11:10 AM PDT

By Felix Pinhasov:

For some odd reason, many investors seeking exposure to gold miners tend to gravitate to the world's largest gold miner Barrick Gold (ABX), figuring they can't go wrong with the biggest player (that's what I constantly read on the web and see on TV). Unfortunately for them, Barrick's share performance has been terrible on both a year-to-date basis and on a peer comparison basis.

As the charts below illustrate, Barrick's shares underperformed its peers by a wide enough margin that investors in the company should consider selling out of the company and switching to a stronger performer to better capitalize on their bullish thesis on gold.

Both Gold Corp (GG) and Randgold (GOLD) outperformed Barrick and are up 14.2 and 1.8 percent, respectively, on a year-to-date basis. On the other hand, Barrick is down 10.9 percent on a year-to-date basis (Randgold underperformed Barrick early in the year due to the


Complete Story »

11 Dividend Stocks That Have Given Me 20%+ Annualized Returns

Posted: 02 Oct 2012 10:32 AM PDT

By Dividends4Life:

Andy Warhol said in 1968 that "In the future, everyone will be world-famous for 15 minutes." In our society, many things follow the 15 minutes of fame paradigm, though duration of time is sometimes more or less. For example, at a fireworks display, each rocket that is shot is viewed by the audience, albeit just for a few seconds. Olympic athletes will train in obscurity for years for a chance to have a gold medal hung around their neck as the world watches. When it comes to selecting dividend growth stocks, the ones you want are those that will perform well over the long haul.

Each day in the financial section of your newspaper there is a list of the day's top performing stocks. These stocks often have double digit (or more) gains. Problem is if you didn't buy them yesterday, you probably will not be able to reap the


Complete Story »

The Original Bottom Fisher Finds High Risk And Reward In Nevada

Posted: 02 Oct 2012 10:26 AM PDT

By The Gold Report:

Forget about juggling a basket of country risk in places like South Africa and South America. For his money, newsletter writer John Kaiser would rather take a chance on explorers in his own backyard of the Western U.S. based on millions of years of geology and some exciting new discovery methods. In this exclusive interview with The Gold Report, Kaiser outlines the trends, and the juniors staking their claims, in Nevada.

The Gold Report: John, 2012 has been a volatile year for junior equities. What is your thesis for diversifying your portfolio to both protect and possibly grow wealth in this market?

John Kaiser: It's interesting that American households currently have bank deposits totaling $8.7 trillion, which is an all-time record, and yet these deposits are earning less than 1%. This illustrates the anxiety about where the general economy and equity markets are going. Given the risk that we could


Complete Story »

Silver: $50 By The End of The Year

Posted: 02 Oct 2012 09:49 AM PDT

Alix Steel reports on silver and investors that are betting big on the "poor man's gold." She speaks with Deirdre Bolton on Bloomberg Television's "Money Moves."

Silver: A Buy Now

Posted: 02 Oct 2012 09:42 AM PDT

Peter Schiff discusses the run in precious metals, ratios and why Silver is a buy, now.

from schiffreport:

~TVR

FrankenMarket Lives (On)!

Posted: 02 Oct 2012 09:10 AM PDT

Excerpted from the September 30 edition of Notes From the Rabbit Hole:


I often refer back to my first publicly written article (FrankenMarket Lives, 2004) because it simply stated the terms by which the stock market lives here in the age of Inflation onDemand, which was kicked off by Alan Greenspan in 2001 and is ever more aggressively managed to this day by his successor, Ben Bernanke.

From the article's opening segment:  "As we enter the summer of 2004 [fall of 2012], our markets appear to be moving with all the grace of Dr. Frankenstein's creation, staggering forward, arms outstretched and seeking sanctuary [i.e. inflation]."

From the ending segment:  "This market was stitched together with debt, and it will require more of the same to keep it going."

This is why risk is so high for bears, as it is for bulls.  The stock market is running on lust for easy monetary policy, which these days does not simply mean that authorities seek to maintain accommodative interest rates but rather, that they seek to destroy prudent savers and risk managers, forcing everyone into the pool – a cesspool of putrid, rotting things that died on the vine long ago – of speculation.  The nation's seed corn is in that sewage as well.  It is 'all or nothing' and there is ample risk to go around for everybody.

FrankenMarket was fed a heaping helping of unsound and inflationary monetary policy at the last FOMC meeting.

Buying un-payable legacy debt with newly printed money is nothing if not intensely inflationary.  Here I will ask that readers not automatically think 'inflation=rising asset prices', because inflation also equals moral hazard, booms and busts, economic burdens and diminishing returns.  In other words, deflationary liquidations become part of an inflationary regime.  There is nothing smooth and sustainable about a seemingly bullish environment brought about by money printing.

Here we have FrankenMarket – now eight years on – still being stitched together with ever more exponential layers of debt seeking more of what has held it together post-2008.  When the original article was written in 2004, I never imagined the inflationary situation could take this long to resolve and indeed it did not; phase 1 of FrankenMarket – Alan Greenspan's phase – was resolved but good in 2008.

Phase 2 has simply amplified the hazards and exponentially increased the risks; not of a bear market or even a temporary liquidation like 2008.  Phase 2 – being 'all or nothing' – has increased the risk of the end of the system.  This is the only reason I can think of that policy makers have gone all in, despite a stock market near post-2008 highs and a 'jobs' picture that while still depressed, has basically stopped degrading.

We can drop any pretense that our economy is about anything other than the ability of policy makers to leverage the world's reserve paper currency toward asset propping ends.  The investor class is favored and the working and lower middle classes – along with Granny and her Treasury bond income – are collateral damage.  In fact Granny may be in junk bonds by now at the advice of her smart, young financial adviser who found her some really nice return.

We are all speculators now.  Get used to it.  We were once a nation of workers, savers and builders.  We should not blame policy makers for this because they are just the dim-bulb extension of our own fading inner light.

I often used the word "hubris" in early writing because the main threat was not the evil Greenspan or the dangerous Bernanke (he of the famous 2002 speech "Why It Will Not Happen Here"), but rather our own apathy as a people (and Europe, here we include you as well along with most of the developed and modern world).  But in America especially, a sense of entitlement that accompanied the 60" Flat Panels and 4,000 s.f. McMansions bought on credit showed a society that had forgotten the faces of its hard working fathers and mothers.

We have gotten the financial system we deserved and we have gotten the government we deserved.  Not enough of us used critical thinking to speak out against the trends that have been in place since Greenspan engaged the age of Inflation onDemand.  What we did was sit back, make 'coin' off of the bastardization of the currency and lever up.  All the while the mainstream financial media and financial services industry drone on about earnings, valuations and other conventional stuff.

The monster popped its stitches in 2008 and the Fed has sewn the thing back up again.  If they vacuum up enough sludge and pump enough money we may see the final destruction of the bears as the prices of things gain traction.  But with the risk of inflation-fueled price increases comes the increased risk that all of this leverage will fail into liquidation.

That's our market, and eight years on it still lives.  Risk management is our number one job, not gold stock investing, regular stock trading or conventional thinking.  Risk management against all possibilities.  Now, post-FOMC QE panic, NFTRH tightens up the focus because we stand to make some serious gains and lose some serious capital perhaps all within shorter time cycles than ever before because leverage has gone exponential in the interest of keeping FrankenMarket's stitching from coming unwound again.

Website: http://www.biiwii.com


ECB: increase of oz728,74 in gold and gold receivables

Posted: 02 Oct 2012 08:38 AM PDT

Gold Hits Record High in Euros and it’s Setting Up for Another Rally

Posted: 02 Oct 2012 08:35 AM PDT

GoldandOilGuy

India unlocks treasure trove of gold as farmers sell

Posted: 02 Oct 2012 07:58 AM PDT

Ghana deports 38 Chinese arrested for gold mining

Posted: 02 Oct 2012 07:56 AM PDT

Peter Schiff: Why Silver Is A Buy Now

Posted: 02 Oct 2012 07:53 AM PDT

Peter, when you're talking about silver, ya got to wear a silver tie.

(Ignore the minor sales pitch for his company thrown in there).

Today The Fed Unofficially Announced QE4

Posted: 02 Oct 2012 07:19 AM PDT

from kingworldnews.com:

Today Michael Pento stunned King World when he said, "… the Fed doubled down on QE3 this morning and unofficially announced QE4." Pento believes the mainstream media does not understand what just happened today, but he said it will have massive implications for the markets, including gold and silver.

Pento has been incredibly accurate regarding his predictions of central bank moves. Pento noted, "… he (Charles Evans) did not indicate that these new and additional purchases, which will start in January, would be sterilized."

Here is what Pento had to say: "The mainstream media has it all wrong once again. I noticed that gold and energy, commodities in general, turned around right after Charles Evans, who is the Chicago Fed President, spoke (earlier today). The media pretty much ignored it."

Keep on reading @ kingworldnews.com

PIMCO On Gold – The Simple Facts

Posted: 02 Oct 2012 07:15 AM PDT

from zerohedge.com:

Via Nicholas Johnson and Mihir Worah of PIMCO,

GOLD – The Simple Facts

When it comes to investing in gold, investors often see the world in black and white. Some people have a deep, almost religious conviction that gold is a useless, barbarous relic with no yield; it's an asset no rational investor would ever want. Others love it, seeing it as the only asset that can offer protection from the coming financial catastrophe, which is always just around the corner.

Our views are more nuanced and, we believe, provide a balanced framework for assessing value. Our bottom line: given current valuations and central bank policies, we see gold as a compelling inflation hedge and store of value that is potentially superior to fiat currencies.

Keep on reading @ zerohedge.com

Gold Market Update

Posted: 02 Oct 2012 07:13 AM PDT

Russian General: “The USSR Collapsed and the Same Fate Has Been Prepared for the USA”

Posted: 02 Oct 2012 07:11 AM PDT

from shtfplan.com:

In the following video commentary Russian General Konstantin P. Petrov (Ret.) asks some interesting questions and includes his own thoughts (perhaps the non-official Russian position) about a variety of topics that include the end of US dollar hegemony, the orchestration of the 9-11 attacks to engage America in a mid-east war, the puppeteers behind the politicians and the coming premeditated collapse of the United States of America as we know it.

While here in the United States we remain enclosed in a propaganda bubble controlled by western multi-billion dollar media conglomerates, business interests and political alliances, there can be no doubt that other schools of thought exist throughout the world. What may seem like reality to our populace is perhaps nothing more than illusion.

The United States does not exist in a vacuum. As such, we simply cannot ignore the assessments, outlook and opinions of foreign leadership as they pertain to the global implications of current events.

Keep on reading @ shtfplan.com

Intermarket Explanation for Coming Gold Bubble

Posted: 02 Oct 2012 07:11 AM PDT

Silver’s Bullish ‘Golden Cross’; Morgan Stanley Like Silver In Q4 and 2013

Posted: 02 Oct 2012 07:07 AM PDT

from goldcore.com:

Today's AM fix was USD 1,778.50, EUR 1,377.19, and GBP 1,100.56 per ounce.

Yesterday's AM fix was USD 1,770.50, EUR 1,372.80 and GBP 1,096.01 per ounce.

Silver is trading at $34.80/oz, €27.06/oz and £21.66/oz. Platinum is trading at $1,673.00/oz, palladium at $643.00/oz and rhodium at $1,125/oz.

Keep on reading @ goldcore.com

Gold COT: On the Cusp of a Short-Covering Extraveganza?

Posted: 02 Oct 2012 07:06 AM PDT

from goldmoney.com:

With QE to infinity everywhere, it is not surprising that gold and silver prices have been performing strongly recently. Buyers from hedge funds to central banks to ultra-high net worth individuals abound. In the past the limitation has always been the ability of those categorised as Commercials at the Comex to put a lid on things. So the big question has to be, can they do it again this time?

The chart below gives us some context. It shows all categories of Comex traders, plus open interest, in 100-ounce gold contracts.

Keep on reading @ goldmoney.com

Fake 10 oz. Gold Bars

Posted: 02 Oct 2012 07:05 AM PDT

What Changes in the Gold Market? Who is Buying?

Posted: 02 Oct 2012 07:04 AM PDT

from news.goldseek.com:

A look at the gold market over the last few months shows that the pattern of price movements has changed from the traditional patterns. If you take the time factor out of charts on the gold price, the pattern of behavior becomes simple. It is a strong rise followed by a narrow, short consolidation pattern before a further move forward. This is unlike the saw tooth pattern we are used to as buyers and sellers reassess price prospects constantly, giving rise to more extended consolidation patterns over longer periods.

Until June of this year, the gold and silver prices appeared to be following the more traditional pattern that tended lower. Then between $1,530 and $1,550, the price turned and headed upwards. It was then that the day-to-day pattern changed. A closer look at the long consolidation period that sent the gold price from $1,930 to $1,530 over the last year and more shows a changing pattern of large movements followed by narrower consolidations holding round a central price that held for a long time.

Keep on reading @ news.goldseek.com

Ted Butler: Arguments Against Silver Manipulation

Posted: 02 Oct 2012 07:01 AM PDT

from caseyresearch.com:

Yesterday in Gold and Silver

Gold got sold down in early Far East trading, with the low of the day coming shortly after 10:00 a.m. Hong Kong time. From there it rallied it fits and starts until the Comex open in New York.

At that point, the price blasted skyward…just like it did in silver, platinum and palladium. Then, at precisely 9:00 a.m. Eastern, the gold price went vertical…and that's when a not-for-profit seller/HFT showed up.

Gold's high tick was $1,793.00 spot…but by 10:40 a.m. Eastern time, the gold price had been sold down by eighteen dollars to around $1,775 spot…and then traded sideways into the electronic close.

Keep on reading @ caseyresearch.com

What Does Gold Have Going For It?

Posted: 02 Oct 2012 07:01 AM PDT

Peter Schiff Silver Promotion

Posted: 02 Oct 2012 06:57 AM PDT

A timely silver promotion by our friends at Euro-Pacific Precious Metals is described in the video just below.   Quality silver bars from a distinguished refiner at a reasonable premium, but apparently for a limited time.

We are sharing this video because we are in agreement with Mr. Schiff's assessment of silver relative to gold.  

  

Source: Euro Pacific Capital.  Details of the offering at the link below.
http://www.europacmetals.com/gold-video-blog.aspx#"

Disclosure:  Got Gold Report has no affiliation with Euro-Pacific Capital or Euro-Pacific Precious Metals.

 

Dave Skarica on gold and Greek investment opportunities

Posted: 02 Oct 2012 06:45 AM PDT

Dominic Frisby, host of the website Life After The State, talks to Dave Skarica of addictedtoprofits.net. Europe, commodities, and gold are some of the topics of discussion. Dave is bullish on gold ...

This posting includes an audio/video/photo media file: Download Now

Live by the Bellwether, Die by the Bellwether?

Posted: 02 Oct 2012 06:32 AM PDT

Has the Apple rollover become a market microcosm? 

Apple is the most profitable and beloved public company in the world. Huge optimism built up in anticipation of the iPhone 5. There was even excited journalist chatter of how the iPhone alone could be a meaningful booster of US GDP.

Then we got the production shortages, the shortfall of stratospheric expectations for iPhone 5 sales, the concern of soft metal damage giving new phones the appearance of being scuffed, and the huge Apple maps flap (which managed to directly benefit GOOG).

click to enlarge

A common trader focus is the "hundred dollar roll," in which a stock that breaks a new century mark ($100, $200 etc.) is likely to keep going on the sheer power of momentum. (Not sure who came up with this, but the idea has been around since Jesse Livermore's day.)

AAPL's hundred dollar roll – at the princely level of $700 per share – was a total bust. The inability of AAPL to maintain 700 is now a psychological weight on the market.

So will this be a case of "live by the bellwether, die by the bellwether?" Will the flagging mojo in AAPL deflate the entire market?

Monday's action was certainly a huge disappointment for bulls. After a major run-up on surprisingly positive ISM data, the majors mostly gave it all back. Tech and small caps even managed to close red (thanks to the aforementioned AAPL)…

click to enlarge

Above we see ominous bearish flag patterns in four major vehicles: The S&P 500, small caps (via IWM), tech (via QQQ), and retail (XRT). Moving averages are not shown, but all four patterns would also represent a decline below 20 day exponential moving average support in the event of bear followthrough.

This is an extremely negative development (from a bullish perspective) coming as it does on the heels of Monday's reversal. The ISM news was unreservedly bullish – here is a Bloomberg recap if you missed it – and thus to see the majors (particularly the S&P) ramp so hard, and then turn tail, is a "tell" of meaningful underlying weakness.

S&P futures are modestly higher prior to Tuesday's market open, but it could be a red herring. We are aggressively adding to our roster of short setups today, in the event a bearish followthrough event turns into something substantial. To see our new pending trades – and our entire trading book, as established with real positions in real time – check out the Mercenary Live Feed!

click to enlarge

Aussie Aussie! One of our favorite macro trades this year, short AUDUSD, is gaining acceleration after an RBA rate cut.

Via Bloomberg:

Australia's dollar dropped against all of its 16 major peers after the country's central bank cut interest rates by 25 basis points today.

The so-called Aussie dropped to the lowest in more than three weeks against its U.S. counterpart after the Reserve Bank of Australia lowered its benchmark rate to 3.25 percent, the lowest level since 2009. Only nine of 28 economists surveyed by Bloomberg predicted the cut.

Meanwhile, in Europe, Spiegel is stirring the pot once again by wondering if the ECB Bond-Buying Program is Illegal. Via the Spiegel website:

The markets have celebrated Mario Draghi's announcement that the European Central Bank will embark on unlimited purchases of sovereign bonds from crisis stricken countries. But are such purchases really legal? Draghi's own justification for the program leaves plenty of room for doubt.

So Europe's crisis door might not be closed on that front either… wonderful…

We continue to see this environment as chock full of Gray Swans and Tail Risks.

JS (jack@mercenarytrader.com)

p.s. Institutional allocator seeks talented traders and money managers. Potential allocation amount: $2 to $10 million. See if your track record qualifies...

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